#  @onechancefreedm EndGame Macro The US economy is showing signs of stress, with indicators such as layoff announcements, declining home-builder confidence, and a shrinking prime-age workforce. Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with rising conflicts between the US and Iran, and Israel, and a potential shift in global liquidity. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady is seen as a strategic move to resist premature easing and maintain optionality for future policy actions. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] -6.80% - [--] Month [---------] -49% - [--] Months [----------] +84% - [--] Year [----------] +150,321% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/posts_active)  - [--] Week [---] +54% - [--] Month [---] -8.60% - [--] Months [-----] +14% - [--] Year [-----] +1,619% ### Followers: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.09% - [--] Month [------] +1.60% - [--] Months [------] +68% - [--] Year [------] +27,073% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #5482 [countries](/list/countries) 18.09% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 7.8% [stocks](/list/stocks) 6.38% [currencies](/list/currencies) 5.67% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 1.77% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 1.06% [financial services](/list/financial-services) 1.06% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 1.06% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 0.71% **Social topic influence** [in the](/topic/in-the) 19.5%, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) #1083, [bond](/topic/bond) #222, [this is](/topic/this-is) 9.22%, [gold](/topic/gold) 9.22%, [debt](/topic/debt) #294, [yield](/topic/yield) 8.51%, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #136, [breaking](/topic/breaking) 7.8%, [china](/topic/china) #2141 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@scorpiotiger77](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/undefined) [@patriot5715](/creator/undefined) [@travelingjagrs](/creator/undefined) [@freightalley](/creator/undefined) [@tozgokmen](/creator/undefined) [@benkizemchuk](/creator/undefined) [@bitcoinpoke](/creator/undefined) [@seanpaulkelley](/creator/undefined) [@tylermacro10](/creator/undefined) [@lindgrenowitz](/creator/undefined) [@blackrock](/creator/undefined) [@e055michel1842](/creator/undefined) [@greatmartis](/creator/undefined) [@fejauinc](/creator/undefined) [@nickgerli1](/creator/undefined) [@jagermario](/creator/undefined) [@michaeljburry](/creator/undefined) [@ustreasury](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Losing 229k people to domestic migration in [----] is an improvement from the [------] trough but its still a big net outflow compared with the long run pattern. Historically when the line starts turning up from a deep low like this it usually doesnt snap back to zero overnight. It grinds higher in waves as the reasons people left fade slowly not suddenly. And the reasons havent really faded. The core driver is still the same with housing costs and day to day affordability versus what you can get elsewhere for the same income. Remote and hybrid work made it easier to act on that math and even as" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021801284643258558) 2026-02-12T04:19Z 72.3K followers, 11.3K engagements "CBRE is basically a proxy for real estate liquidity so when deals stop clearing cap rates reset and lenders get picky transactions evaporate first and the brokers and servicers feel it before the headlines do. Thats why the only comparable tape tends to show up in true liquidity shocks like [------] and [----]. This kind of move usually means the deal machine is staying clogged longer than we thought. The deeper driver here is financing and price discovery with higher for longer rates tighter bank balance sheets and a refinancing wall that forces sales at discounts or extends and pretends. In" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021929412355039470) 2026-02-12T12:48Z 72.3K followers, 96.5K engagements "AI is a convenient headline but it doesnt explain a 30% air pocket in [--] days. AI disruption is a slow multi year margin story. This kind of move is a liquidity and fee pool story. CBRE is basically a proxy for real estate transactions and refinancing activity so when cap rates reset lenders tighten and price discovery freezes the first thing that disappears is volume and fees. Thats fundamentals just not the kind that shows up neatly in last quarters EPS. If you want the tell look at what had to change overnight to justify that repricing. This isnt AI eating brokerage. Its the deal market" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2022048981447025116) 2026-02-12T20:43Z 72.3K followers, 47.6K engagements "How Margin Math Triggered a Cross Asset Flush Microsoft was the pressure point because it sits at the center of index exposure and systematic risk. On the surface the quarter looked fine.$81.3B in revenue (+17% YoY) and $4.14 in adjusted EPS (+24% YoY). But once investors moved past the headline beat the underlying picture was less comfortable. Key stress points in the earnings👇 Consumer facing weakness More Personal Computing revenue fell 3% YoY to $14.3B. Gaming revenue declined 9% in constant currency with Xbox content and services down 56%. Q3 guidance points to further pressure" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2016921761137271218) 2026-01-29T17:09Z 72.3K followers, 195.5K engagements "DeKalb is doing this for the same blunt reason a lot of districts are about to face which is fewer kids and too many buildings. Birth rates have been falling for years families have been moving around (often out of higher cost areas or into different parts of a county) and the result is a district with thousands of empty seats but the same fixed costs for staffing maintenance utilities and aging facilities. When enrollment drifts down budgets dont just shrink nicely with it because schools are lumpy assets and you cant half operate a building. So districts consolidate close or repurpose" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2022134499480400095) 2026-02-13T02:23Z 72.3K followers, 13.7K engagements "Whats happening with Nexperia goes way beyond a simple regulatory move by the Dutch government this is a front line moment in the global tech power struggle between the West and China. On paper the Netherlands says its stepping in because of administrative shortcomings and national security risks. But in reality this is about cutting off one of Chinas quiet backdoors into Western chip technology. Nexperia may be based in Europe but its owned by Chinas Wingtech and the fear is that valuable know how could end up back in Chinese hands. By freezing Nexperias corporate decisions and removing its" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977550998253060508) 2025-10-13T01:44Z 72.3K followers, 125.1K engagements "What the S&P And Private Credit Split is Really Saying The S&P [---] (mega cap rate sensitive growth) has kept grinding higher while private credit proxies like Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL) Ares Capital (ARCC) and Blue Owl (OWL) have rolled over hard. For most of the last two years they moved broadly together. That divergence is the tell. Were shifting from a rates regime to a credit quality regime. Why private credit is slumping while the S&P rallies Income compression arrives first. BDCs and direct lending funds boomed in higher for longer: floating rate loans reset up quickly while much" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1982177495328997678) 2025-10-25T20:08Z 72.3K followers, 11.9K engagements "What about all the other banks that did business with Epstein like Deutsche Bank Bank Of America Bank of New York Melon HSBC Wells Fargo TD Bank Goldman Sachs Truist Financial Corp. and BNP Paribas Retail investors think this is some David vs Goliath when in reality they are going to get smoked regardless. Why buy MSTR when you can just buy Bitcoin itself https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992938398890217714 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992938398890217714" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1992938398890217714) 2025-11-24T12:48Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements "This video was sent to me Im not even sure who made it but the claim is that Trumps new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve order is basically the modern version of the [----] gold play setting up a future revaluation of Bitcoin and gold while the dollar weakens. Im not totally convinced but its an interesting angle. What do you all think" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996787093230490067) 2025-12-05T03:41Z 72.3K followers, 130.3K engagements "That [--] year dividend coverage sounds reassuring but it's all theoretical and hinged on steady fundraising like their latest $748M share raise to shore up cash while halting BTC buys. And sure Bitcoin's long run CAGR looks strong but last year's -6% return doesn't greatly exceed your 11% cost of capital; it's a reminder these numbers flip in down cycles. Yields do matter here as a gut check why cough up triple what Treasuries offer if not for the crypto rollercoaster BTC's only brushed a recession once in 2020's short COVID hit where it cratered 50% before snapping back on a wave of support" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2007265014202147135) 2026-01-03T01:37Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements "When Lenders Start Saying No Auto Loans Become an Early Credit Warning When auto loan rejections hit the highest level in more than a decade the headline sounds like consumer stress. But the real signal is credit access tightening not demand disappearing. The New York Feds survey shows rejection rates rising through [----] and into [----] with a spike to 15.2% in October [----] (up from 6.7% in June 2025). And the key historical detail.the previous high was at the start of the series in [----] meaning this is the worst reading in the entire dataset not just a normal cycle move. Why That Matters Now" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2015494331327533229) 2026-01-25T18:37Z 72.2K followers, 10.1K engagements "Housing Cracks Dont Start With Prices They Start With Jobs and Confidence During the GFC December was often when that stress first became visible in contracts. In December [----] pending home sales were already down roughly 24% from the prior year a clear signal that closings were about to weaken further. That wasnt random timing. The recession officially began that same month layoffs were rising credit conditions were tightening and buyers started worrying that the price they agreed to today might look expensive a few months later if their job or income wasnt secure. Contracts didnt fail" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2015875881487438322) 2026-01-26T19:53Z 72.2K followers, 12.9K engagements "Peter Schiff argues that Bitcoin isnt real money because it lacks intrinsic value is highly volatile and depends more on speculation than stability. From his perspective that makes it unsuitable as a central bank reserve asset especially compared with gold. He points to the fact that central banks continue to accumulate gold while virtually none hold Bitcoin (with El Salvador as the lone exception) as evidence that institutions still trust gold.not crypto when it comes to preserving monetary credibility and long term stability. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015952002984075304" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2015952002984075304) 2026-01-27T00:56Z 72.2K followers, 26.3K engagements "We are speaking of a fiscal crisis at a scale greater than the Great Recession This is will be every major city across the countrycommercial real estate values have collapsed and tax revenues alongside with them. If you think the increase in property taxes this year was bad you havent seen anything yet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016667567205863928 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016667567205863928" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2016667567205863928) 2026-01-29T00:19Z 72.2K followers, 48.5K engagements "Productivity and Costs Q3 [----] And Why A Great Headline Masks Late Cycle Fragility The BLS report shows nonfarm productivity up 4.9% in Q3 driven by output up 5.4% while hours worked rose just 0.5%. Year over year productivity is up 1.9% with output up 2.8% and hours up 0.9%. Unit labor costs fell 1.9% since wages rose 2.9% but productivity rose faster. Real hourly pay actually fell 0.2% in the quarter and is up only 0.3% over the past year. Those are the facts. The leap people make is treating this as clean non inflationary growth. Thats where the story starts to wobble.because the" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2016900668557045942) 2026-01-29T15:46Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements "Chinas Deflation Is a Signal Not an Exception Its easy to look at Chinas deflation streak and treat it like a local problem.weak demand here excess capacity there. But the deeper message is about nominal gravity. China isnt just growing more slowly; its producing output without generating enough pricing power to support incomes profits and debt. And that distinction matters far more than whether CPI is slightly positive or negative. When the GDP deflator stays below zero it means the economy can keep moving in real terms while getting poorer in nominal ones. Wages lag. Profits compress. Tax" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2016957877995352528) 2026-01-29T19:33Z 72.2K followers, 17.9K engagements "These IPOs Arent About Markets Theyre About National Security Architecture This looks like a standard tech and markets story. Big IPOs. Trillion dollar valuations. SpaceX OpenAI Anthropic. Maybe even a mega merger tying SpaceX to Tesla and xAI. The easy takeaway is familiar.visionary founders breakthrough products capital finally catching up to innovation. That framing is comfortable. Its also incomplete. Whats Actually Being Priced These companies arent being valued just for products or future cash flows. Theyre being valued because they now sit close to the core of U.S. national security" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2017067481127412134) 2026-01-30T02:48Z 72.2K followers, 30.5K engagements "Kevin Warsh has a surprisingly thoughtful take on Bitcoin in this clip. He doesnt frame it as a threat or a replacement for the dollar but as a signal policymakers should actually pay attention to. Its a lot more nuanced than the usual talking points and worth hearing in his own words https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017392651033571787 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017392651033571787" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2017392651033571787) 2026-01-31T00:21Z 72.2K followers, 31.6K engagements "Did MSCI effectively throw MicroStrategy a lifeline by confirming its continued inclusion in the Global Investable Market Indexes despite its massive Bitcoin exposure and in doing so avoid a forced cascade of passive selling that could have cratered the stock triggered margin stress on its leveraged balance sheet and potentially spilled into a broader BTC liquidation cycle In other words was this simply a neutral methodology clarification or a quiet decision that bought time for the ultimate Bitcoin proxy to survive dilution refinancing or a hoped for BTC rebound while kicking a much larger" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2017743224438497689) 2026-01-31T23:34Z 72.2K followers, 24.6K engagements "This is scary because it hints the old China playbook is breaking. For more than two decades the global economy ran on a simple loop where China built relentlessly China absorbed commodities the rest of the world sold into that demand and everyone agreed not to ask too many questions about the debt as long as the cranes stayed in the air. When fixed investment growth drops below zero its not just a bad print. Its a signal that the engine powering that loop is losing torque. This isnt a normal slowdown. Its a transition problem. Whats actually breaking under the hood This isnt China stopped" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2017766175954891099) 2026-02-01T01:05Z 72.2K followers, 91K engagements "Why Deflation Is the Bigger Risk Than the Market Realizes The Truflation chart that Cathie Wood is highlighting is a signal that a different inflation regime may already be forming one that most investors are not positioned to recognize because theyre still anchored to official CPI narratives and backward looking assumptions. At face value Truflation showing consumer inflation around 0.86% year over year looks like a mild divergence from official data. But that framing misses what actually matters. The importance is what kind of inflation is collapsing how fast and what that implies for real" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018324143553343992) 2026-02-02T14:02Z 72.2K followers, 33.5K engagements "The Metals Didnt Recover They Revealed the Game When gold and silver collapse intraday and then rip higher to erase most of the losses the easy explanation is that buyers stepped in. The more accurate one is that this was a leverage purge colliding with a structural price insensitive bid. The V shaped reversal is a signature of a market now driven by plumbing collateral and forced flows rather than clean linear fundamentals. What The Charts Are Actually Saying Both metals followed the same script with a hard flush a liquidity vacuum then a persistent bid that pushed price back toward the" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018348666000396534) 2026-02-02T15:39Z 72.2K followers, 99.4K engagements "The January PMI Bounce Isnt a Green Light Its a Stress Signal in Disguise The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to [----] in January [----] marking the first expansion reading after a year of contraction. On the surface that looks like a clean turn in the manufacturing cycle. New Orders surged to [----] Production rose to [----] and Backlogs moved back into expansion. Markets and headlines quickly framed this as evidence that U.S. manufacturing is back. That conclusion is premature. This report coincides with ISMs annual seasonal adjustment revisions which mechanically amplify month to month moves" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018367937422205302) 2026-02-02T16:56Z 72.2K followers, 59K engagements "Today Donald J. Trump announced what he described as a major trade agreement with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The U.S. tariffs on Indian goods would fall from 25% to 18% India would move toward eliminating tariffs and non tariff barriers on U.S. products and New Delhi would commit to purchasing more than $500 billion in U.S. energy technology agricultural goods and coal. Most notably Trump said India agreed to stop buying Russian oil. Publicly the deal was framed as a reciprocal trade win and a geopolitical step toward ending the war in Ukraine by cutting off a key revenue stream for" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018388745243045975) 2026-02-02T18:19Z 72.2K followers, 17.9K engagements "Is Vanguards Fee Cuts Crisis Prep Disguised as Generosity Vanguards decision to slash fees on [--] U.S. funds and cutting costs across [--] share classes by about 27% and pushing the firm wide average down to 0.06% has been sold as a simple extension of its low cost DNA. Scale gets bigger fees go lower clients win. That story isnt wrong but its incomplete. Look at it through a crisis prep lens and the move starts to feel less like routine generosity and more like strategic positioning ahead of a shakier market regime. The timing matters. These cuts were rolled out immediately not eased in over" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018409252184879176) 2026-02-02T19:40Z 72.2K followers, 13.3K engagements "This chart from BlackRock shows listed infrastructure equities trading at nearly a 20% discount to their long term average relative to MSCI World on EV/EBITDA levels below the Global Financial Crisis and comparable to the COVID shock. At first glance you would think infrastructure is historically cheap and ripe for mean reversion. That conclusion is too simple and likely wrong. What The Chart Actually Measures The data shows relative valuation not absolute cheapness. Infrastructure isnt being judged in isolation; its being priced against global equities which have been heavily skewed by a" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018742919201714481) 2026-02-03T17:46Z 72.2K followers, 15.5K engagements "The End of the Bond Backstop And Why the U.S. [--] Year Is the Markets Real Stress Test For four decades falling yields acted as a universal shock absorber. When growth slowed or risk rose bonds rallied stabilizing portfolios credit housing and fiscal dynamics. That relationship is now under strain. What the Chart Is Actually Saying The chart marks two critical eras Early 1980s: the start of a multi decade disinflationary regime driven by Volcker-era credibility globalization favorable demographics and technology. In this world yields trended lower almost by default. Post 2020: the end of that" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018759394037539223) 2026-02-03T18:52Z 72.2K followers, 26K engagements "Once you account for the recurring liquidity squeeze that shows up ahead of tax season when billions are pulled out to meet obligations and crowded trades get caught flat footed its difficult to argue that any rally before April is more than hopeful optimism. JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $73000 $285000000 liquidated from the crypto market in the past [--] minutes. https://t.co/bSyfCpyOHF JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $73000 $285000000 liquidated from the crypto market in the past [--] minutes. https://t.co/bSyfCpyOHF" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018773527793689087) 2026-02-03T19:48Z 72.2K followers, 31.1K engagements "This chart tracks the [--] year minus [--] month Treasury spread alongside the [--] month bill rate and it highlights the pattern most investors recognize where the curve inverts then later un-inverts (re-steepens) and major drawdowns have often followed (2000 [----] 2020). The pattern is real enough to respect but the usual interpretation is backwards. The yield curve isnt a prophecy machine. Its a pressure gauge for monetary and credit conditions and the timing of that pressure matters. What Inversion Really Means An inversion is what happens when the front end gets pushed high enough that funding" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019030019369062514) 2026-02-04T12:47Z 72.3K followers, 26.6K engagements "In [----] about 70% of active real estate agents reportedly closed zero transactions versus a historical baseline around 49% selling one or no homes.roughly a 22% jump. That kind of turnover collapse is what historically shows up ahead of major industry shakeouts (think post [----] and the early 1980s rate shock) prices can stay sticky but volume dries up and most agents get squeezed out. Over 70% of licensed Realtors didnt sell a single home last year per NAR Over 70% of licensed Realtors didnt sell a single home last year per NAR" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019042834683162777) 2026-02-04T13:38Z 72.2K followers, 12.1K engagements "ADP Shows Growth Until You Remove Health Care ADP says private employers added [-----] jobs in January. That sounds like things are still growing if you only read the headline. But the internals read like a labor market thats thinning not expanding and where one defensive sector is doing almost all the work while the cyclical economy quietly rolls over. ADP even flags the trend that job creation took a step back in [----] with [------] private jobs added versus [------] in [----] describing a continuous and dramatic slowdown over the last three years. Thats not a one month wobble. Its a regime shift." [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019060938620493889) 2026-02-04T14:50Z 72.2K followers, 13K engagements "@BitcoinPoke Deflation. Unemployment will keep rising from here. Unemployment and GDP is distorted. And the lag between when that liquidity makes its way into risk on assets like Bitcoin etc. will take longer than people think in a severe recession" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019144506520793429) 2026-02-04T20:22Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements "What Michael Burry Is Really Pointing At This post is a warning about where we are in the liquidity cycle and how markets tend to misread this phase. The Pattern Hes Highlighting The two red arrows arent marking bottoms. Theyre marking the same psychological point in two cycles.the moment after a major peak where price has already fallen a lot confidence is shaken but leverage and positioning havent fully cleared. In the prior cycle that zone came before the deeper liquidation leg. Burry is suggesting the current setup may be rhyming with that same false resolution phase. Why the Drawdown" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019264689264296215) 2026-02-05T04:19Z 72.2K followers, 21.8K engagements "Unless of course unemployment continues to rise. Which it will. And then people dont have a choice if they have to meet their debt obligations. If you have a secure job you can ride out a deflationary bust. If you dont then you liquidate everything just to survive. Going to get worse" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019435406094205223) 2026-02-05T15:38Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements "Challenger Job Cuts Surge But the Bigger Tell Is Hiring Just Collapsed The Challenger report for January [----] is showing that corporate confidence is slipping and its showing up first in hiring intent not just layoffs. U.S. based employers announced [------] job cuts in January up 205% from December and up 118% year over year making it the highest January total since [----] (when [------] cuts were announced). Importantly Challenger notes many of these decisions were set late in [----] with Andy Challenger stating they reflect employers who are less than optimistic about the outlook for [----]. Where" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019450196430668179) 2026-02-05T16:37Z 72.2K followers, 11.1K engagements "JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $66000. https://t.co/yc7PmdLyot JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $66000. https://t.co/yc7PmdLyot" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019490171306086714) 2026-02-05T19:15Z 72.3K followers, 17.9K engagements "Scott Bessent is describing economic warfare with what they did to Iran. By constraining access to dollar channels pressure built inside the banking system forced bad policy choices weakened the currency and pushed inflation into everyday life" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019543576011764064) 2026-02-05T22:48Z 72.3K followers, 26.5K engagements "@E055Michel1842 And they will do this globally even at the expense of the U.S. economy just to leverage themselves into the front seat of the table of the New World Order" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019549626869661804) 2026-02-05T23:12Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements "Everythings fine 🫠 FOX: " Rent Now Pay Later. It's a new option for renters who are struggling to make the monthly payment . You pay them a fee or a monthly subscription but if you miss the payments that's when the interest rates go way up." https://t.co/Vn2dMxoi3V FOX: " Rent Now Pay Later. It's a new option for renters who are struggling to make the monthly payment . You pay them a fee or a monthly subscription but if you miss the payments that's when the interest rates go way up." https://t.co/Vn2dMxoi3V" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019550303410860265) 2026-02-05T23:14Z 72.2K followers, 15.2K engagements "This looks less like a durable trend change and more like a reflexive bounce inside a broader drawdown. The backdrop still points to a macro driven crypto winter with recession anxiety ETF outflows and a shift in institutional attention toward assets with clearer cash flow or policy tailwinds like gold or AI linked equities(for now). The larger players appear defensive miners and levered holders selling to manage balance sheets while longer horizon capital selectively accumulates weakness rather than chasing strength. Until theres real macro clarity these moves feel more like positioning and" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019863590216347821) 2026-02-06T19:59Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements "China doesnt need every mortgage to go unpaid for the old loop to break. Property was the collateral base the household wealth engine and the local government revenue machine. When land sales can go from funding a huge chunk of local budgets to being down roughly 65% from the [----] peak you get a fiscal hole weaker confidence and slower credit transmission even if Tier [--] ratios look fine on paper. And the shift was intentional doesnt make it painless or self funding. You can redirect credit into EVs and advanced manufacturing but that doesnt replace a broad household wealth effect. So the" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019921658207711522) 2026-02-06T23:50Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements "Productivity deflation is great when it comes with strong demand rising real incomes and healthy corporate margins. What Chinas been living through looks different where factory gate prices have been negative for years while the trade surplus hits records. Thats not a consumer dividend thats excess capacity clearing at thin margins and pushing the pressure outward. Local governments didnt just switch from land sales to taxes like flipping a switch. Land sales were the flexible cash machine and by many estimates they funded a huge share of local budgets. If land sales are down roughly 65" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019928210566189131) 2026-02-07T00:16Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements "What keeps me from the clean bullish macro read is the labor and consumer tape around it. ADP showed only [-----] private jobs added in January and the headline was basically held up by Education and Health Services (+74000) while Professional and Business Services (-57000) and Manufacturing (-8000) were down meaning outside that one big category the private sector wouldve been negative. Challenger then reported [------] announced job cuts in January (highest January since 2009) and hiring plans collapsing to [----]. On the consumer side delinquency stress is rising too with roughly 5% of auto" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019943778774024394) 2026-02-07T01:18Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements "@TravelingJagrs @FreightAlley (1) Stock market isnt the real economy" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019993580324979065) 2026-02-07T04:36Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements "@TravelingJagrs @FreightAlley Random data 🤣 okaywhat happens to tax revenues for cities and towns across the country when their tax revenues because commercial real estate values have collapsed Wake up buddy" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020217731488923830) 2026-02-07T19:26Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements "@TravelingJagrs @great_martis Yes. I am thinking out loud here.and feel free to respond. Is it possible the Fed pauses or slows the pace of rate cuts while effectively waiting for an external catalyst to do the work for themlike a global risk off episode another major economy breaking first or a credit https://t.co/1VJtZsv6uy I am thinking out loud here.and feel free to respond. Is it possible the Fed pauses or slows the pace of rate cuts while effectively waiting for an external catalyst to do the work for themlike a global risk off episode another major economy breaking first or a credit" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020259877705400630) 2026-02-07T22:14Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements "@TravelingJagrs @great_martis Deflationiscoming" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020260143120716023) 2026-02-07T22:15Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements "A big TGA number sounds supportive but in practice it often means the opposite. That cash is sitting at the Fed not circulating through banks or markets. Until Treasury actually spends it in excess of issuance its a reserve drain not a boost. And heading into tax season the usual pattern is to keep the cash balance high and then see receipts push it even higher in April. Even if policymakers want to protect asset prices plumbing support doesnt magically fix the real economy. Rate cuts bill purchases or reserve tweaks help keep funding markets orderly but they dont stop refinancing stress" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020287376245879094) 2026-02-08T00:03Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements "You are underestimating the lag. Liquidity moves and rate cuts dont show up in the real economy in weeks or even a quarter historically its closer to [----] months before you see a clean impact on hiring capex and household balance sheets. What theyre doing now mostly stabilizes the plumbing and asset prices; it doesnt undo the damage thats already been set in motion by two years of tight financial conditions. Thats why the timing matters. Even if the TGA is eventually drawn down or the Fed eases further it wont stop the [----] maturity wall rising delinquencies CRE stress or margin compression" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020303094639206787) 2026-02-08T01:06Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements "I focus on main street because thats where stress shows up first and thats what eventually forces earnings and credit to reprice. Stocks can stay elevated deep into deterioration because the index is held up by liquidity buybacks passive flows and a handful of mega caps while the pain concentrates everywhere else. The market isnt trading todays economy its trading an earnings story that hasnt been marked down yet which is why it can look fine right up until margins crack and revisions hit. The official recession call is almost never the starter gun. NBER dates recessions after the fact" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020515083730768268) 2026-02-08T15:08Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements "@TOzgokmen @DA_Sully Any thoughts on this I personally think capacity finally got flushed and the survivors are just setting the price" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020826016089047434) 2026-02-09T11:44Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements "@grok @FreightAlley @grok What would flip it the other way and what economic variables and indicators across the broader economy would reaffirm softening volume and weakness Give me the top 5" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020919455518265727) 2026-02-09T17:55Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements "@grok If you take into account and see through the noise of ISM PMI and look into the actual sectors of employment etc. unemployment specifically taking into account birth/death model and U-6 unemployment retail sales when you take into account inflation adjusted and buy now pay later usage and GDP where 18% of GDP is health insurance costs and other similar inputs. And then take account the content with bankruptcies in this screenshot. What would you say with your highest probability conviction is the reason for SONAR recent freight demand resurgence etc" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020921297073516842) 2026-02-09T18:02Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements "@grok why is GDP distorted and unemployment rate distorted and misconstrued when you take into account health care insurance costs into GDP and other inputs like that and also death birth model etc with the unemployment rate What was the U-6 unemployment rate And when you compare and contrast that why is there such a divergence https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020956017572413834 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020956017572413834" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020956017572413834) 2026-02-09T20:20Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements "@grok How many Chapter [--] and Sub V bankruptcy filings has there been since [----] combined And considering prior to [----] Chapter [--] filings included Sub V filingstake the combined Chapter [--] and Sub V filings since Jan [----] until today and compare them to any year during great financial crisis and what year is the most similar What is the delinquency rate on auto loans and credit cards What is the vacancy rate of commercial real estate and office space commercial real estate and how does that affect municipality tax revenues And considering a formal recession hasnt been declared when you put" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020959100826423350) 2026-02-09T20:32Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements "@grok @fejau_inc @BenKizemchuk @grok Lets assume truflation is a better indicator of inflation. How would that change your opinion And how can the current tariffs cause a kindleberger spiral And what happens to deflation in that scenario" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020962764706177171) 2026-02-09T20:47Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements "@grok Is China in a deflationary spiral and trying to export their way out of deflation And doesnt that export deflation to the rest of the world who they export to When you combine that with the tariffs as well how bad could this get of truflation is the true economic indicator of inflation https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020963546109194510 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020963546109194510" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020963546109194510) 2026-02-09T20:50Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements "@grok With your highest probability conviction if everything I said is accurate and truflation is the better indicator of inflation expectations how bad could this recession get if the Fed doesnt cut rates soon enough and are once again reactive rather than proactive especially since we are starting off worse that GFC" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020964465882398758) 2026-02-09T20:54Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements "@grok How many major cities in the U.S. are in a budget deficit and by how much due to commercial values collapsing And give me the top [--] largest cities in the U.S. that is going through this and tell me how bad their budget deficit is in historical context and adjust for inflation. And how would they likely try and get out of that deficit by doing what And what impact will that have on the economy https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020965333625155824 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020965333625155824" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020965333625155824) 2026-02-09T20:57Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements "Hiring Freezes First. Layoffs Later. This Chart Is the First Step This is Challenger Gray & Christmas announced job cuts shown with a six month average to smooth the monthly noise. Its forward looking.what companies plan to do not a direct count of layoffs already hitting payrolls. Think of it as executive intent and not the full damage yet. Planned Cuts Jumped Hard Employers announced [------] job cuts in January [----] the highest January total since [----]. Zoom out and it gets louder.2025 announced cuts totaled [-------] one of the highest annual totals theyve recorded and notably close to 2008s" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021377154123014369) 2026-02-11T00:14Z 72.3K followers, 18.5K engagements "RT @TOzgokmen: THE ART OF WAR: Joke aside investment is about strategy. It is just like chess or war. One move is made in response to ano" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021665775090823619) 2026-02-11T19:20Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: What the January Jobs Report Doesnt Want You to Notice At first glance this looks calm with payrolls up [------] and" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021795096195154151) 2026-02-12T03:54Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: This is the BLS basically admitting the economy was weaker than the monthly tape made it look and a lot of resilient" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021795112477499449) 2026-02-12T03:54Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: When credit card balances that are 90+ days delinquent climb back toward GFC territory (12.7% now vs 13.7% in 2009) t" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021795128843633073) 2026-02-12T03:54Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: When health care and social assistance are more than [---] percent of the [--] month gain in private payrolls it means ev" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021795145734066210) 2026-02-12T03:55Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: The math is getting less insane because the market is being forced to adjust but a lot of that adjustment is happenin" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021795164608721062) 2026-02-12T03:55Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: This chart sounds bullish but its a little deceptive because its pulling from the household survey not the payroll" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021795180056084732) 2026-02-12T03:55Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: What this chart clearly shows is that the previously published payroll story was too rosy and the current with revisi" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021795199010123847) 2026-02-12T03:55Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: This is the housing system moving from an artificially suppressed foreclosure regime back toward reality and then over" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021795225145160097) 2026-02-12T03:55Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: Zondas lot index rises when the stock of finished lots is growing or when the pace of starts slows and lots stop gett" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021893428838367400) 2026-02-12T10:25Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: Losing 229k people to domestic migration in [----] is an improvement from the [------] trough but its still a big net o" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021893441723011522) 2026-02-12T10:25Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "RT @onechancefreedm: Hankes right that money matters but China isnt living in a textbook where you dial M2 up and CPI obediently follows" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021893464116306193) 2026-02-12T10:25Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "Heres what COULD be happening beneath the surface: were witnessing a coordinated pause by the Fed and Treasury not out of strength or stability but as a last-ditch effort to stall systemic collapse while they prepare the architecture for a new monetary regime. The plumbing of the global dollar system is breaking down basis trades are unraveling swap spreads are collapsing into negative territory SOFR-Fed Funds spreads are inverted and long-end Treasuries are being sold into weakness not bought. And yet the Fed isnt stepping in. Thats not because things are fine its because they cant move" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909818797625860263) 2025-04-09T04:00Z 72.3K followers, 110.9K engagements "We suffer more in imagination than in reality. - Seneca Senecas words cut straight to the core of modern life. Most people are not undone by real hardship but by the endless loops of imagined pain they play in their own minds. We relive mistakes that no longer exist invent problems that havent arrived and interpret silence as judgment. The mind becomes its own tormentor creating storms that reality never brings. Every anxious thought every what if every mental rehearsal of disaster drains energy that could be spent actually living growing or creating. This is what makes Senecas insight so" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976852395729535083) 2025-10-11T03:28Z 72.3K followers, 25.2K engagements "Bitcoin Is Screaming And M2 Velocity Is Whispering Something Else A taker buy/sell ratio around [----] basically means the aggressive side of the market is hitting buy. On the surface that looks powerful. But this ratio tends to spike when positioning is already crowded. It measures urgency not depth. And in crypto urgency is usually leveragenot slow steady accumulation. It feels bullish. But these are exactly the kinds of readings that show up when a market is stretched not necessarily when its healthy. And then theres M2 velocity which tells a very different story Let me explain M2 velocity." [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996360989680320902) 2025-12-03T23:28Z 72.3K followers, 33.4K engagements "Jeffrey Epstein gives a surprisingly clear breakdown of how fractional reserve banking actually works. Worth the watch" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018497626866377135) 2026-02-03T01:31Z 72.3K followers, 24.3K engagements "The Pending Home Sales Index (contract signings) is sitting near the lows of the entire [--------] history. The annotation says pending sales are roughly 27% below normal. But the real tell is the duration. After [----] the line stays pinned. Thats a market struggling to clear. What Pending Sales Really Measure Pending home sales are the earliest clean read on real housing demand because they capture the moment a buyer and seller commit. They lead closings they lead mortgage originations and they lead a long chain of downstream economic activity. When this collapses it means the housing market is" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018859867872661898) 2026-02-04T01:31Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements "Ray Dalio is basically saying that you shouldnt fixate on the dollar. The same debt trap is spreading across every major fiat system so the escape valve cant be another paper currency. Thats why central banks keep reaching for gold. Its the one monetary asset that isnt someone elses liability and cant be printed https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018883143374131280 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018883143374131280" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2018883143374131280) 2026-02-04T03:03Z 72.3K followers, 49.2K engagements "ISM Services PMI Report: Expansion on Paper Erosion in the Pipeline The January ISM Services PMI prints [----] still expansion and unchanged from December. But the crime scene detail isnt the headline; its the internals. Several forward looking components that usually crack before the headline PMI do are already in contraction Backlog of Orders (44.0) for the 11th straight month New Export Orders (45.0) after a sharp drop Imports (48.2) and Inventories (45.1). That combination is the classic setup for activity looks fineuntil it suddenly doesnt. Why the Headline Can Lie The Services PMI is a" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019092791523946779) 2026-02-04T16:56Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements "@BitcoinPoke Way more downside to go" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019130146750624055) 2026-02-04T19:25Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements "Lower. JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $71000 80% chance it drops below $60000 https://t.co/fiFpAyfqNB JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $71000 80% chance it drops below $60000 https://t.co/fiFpAyfqNB" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019378375593492912) 2026-02-05T11:51Z 72.3K followers, 13.9K engagements "You would think that until something actually breaks. Then the world runs to the dollar for liquidity. The dollar is still 8890% of all FX transactions 50% of global payments 54% of trade invoicing and 5758% of global FX reserves. Dollar debt swaps and collateral are everywhere. When volatility spikes everyone needs USD at the same time to settle and post margin. Thats why in real crises the dollar squeezes higher. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019468595043135981 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019468595043135981" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019468595043135981) 2026-02-05T17:50Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements "The Labor Market Flip And Why This Chart Matters More Than People Think The headline everyone sees As of December [----] BLS shows job openings at 6.542M while unemployed persons are 7.503M a gap of roughly 961k. Thats a regime change in simple terms that the worker shortage era is over. What the crowd is missing This is a vacancy collapse while the labor market still looks stable because layoffs havent surged. In the JOLTS report openings fell -386k in the month and -966k over the year while hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3M each. That combination screams freeze not" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020248714036584512) 2026-02-07T21:30Z 72.3K followers, 13K engagements "Takaichis Supermajority A Deterrence Windfall for the U.S. And A Global Bond Market Risk Japans snap election landslide gives Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi something Japan rarely hands any leader.a governing mandate with real legislative leverage. Most peoples first instinct is to treat this as a straightforward Japan goes hawkish U.S. wins. Thats only half the story. The other half is the bond market. Takaichis platform mixes security hardening with fiscally expansionary promises that have already aggravated JGB volatility and yen weakness and because Japan sits at the center of global" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020608778224230828) 2026-02-08T21:20Z 72.3K followers, 22K engagements "The Rent Print Everyone Is Missing And Why Falling Rents Dont Mean Life Is Cheap Again This chart is a clean signal that the rent shock is over. U.S. market rents (new leases) are down about 1.4% YoY extending a long streak of declines after the pandemic spike. The common mistake is mixing up levels vs direction because rents can still be far above [----] while the marginal price is falling. Thats how inflation regimes turn. Two Housing Markets At Once Renting is a fast market.new supply hits landlords compete concessions show up asking rents move. Buying is a frozen market.high prices and high" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020633918643339762) 2026-02-08T23:00Z 72.3K followers, 19.1K engagements "TRUMP TRADE ADVISER NAVARRO: WE NEED TO REVISE EXPECTATIONS ON MONTHLY JOB NUMBERS TRUMP TRADE ADVISER NAVARRO: WE NEED TO REVISE EXPECTATIONS ON MONTHLY JOB NUMBERS" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021238923775644151) 2026-02-10T15:04Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements "The Swing Producer Is Slipping And Why Falling U.S. Oil Output Changes Everything The deeper signal here is that the U.S. is starting to lose its role as the worlds reliable swing producer. And when the swing producer loses elasticity the global energy and macro game gets more volatile. What The Chart Is Actually Saying A year over year decline can happen for many reasons in weekly data including one off drops tied to weather outages or timing. So the flip itself isnt the whole story. The story is the backdrop that makes a flip possible.lower prices slower drilling and a system optimized for" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021426092582604960) 2026-02-11T03:28Z 72.3K followers, 13.2K engagements "When health care and social assistance are more than [---] percent of the [--] month gain in private payrolls it means everything else is flat or shrinking and theyre offsetting the damage. This is exactly how the headline payroll number can look fine and still be misleading: people see a positive net print and assume broad strength but the breadth is collapsing and the profit sensitive parts of the economy arent doing the hiring. Historically thats late cycle behavior. In both the early 2000s slowdown and the pre GFC period health and education type hiring was among the last to hold up while" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021644359024759177) 2026-02-11T17:55Z 72.3K followers, 26.6K engagements "The math is getting less insane because the market is being forced to adjust but a lot of that adjustment is happening in ways that dont feel good on the ground. The buy versus rent gap is shrinking partly because the ownership side is finally bending (rates and or prices arent rising the way they were) and partly because rent affordability is getting squeezed too. And the overlooked trap is that this uses a clean 30% rule of thumb that ignores the real gatekeepers.down payments credit standards property taxes insurance and the fact that people dont buy houses when theyre worried about job" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021645673611833560) 2026-02-11T18:01Z 72.3K followers, 14K engagements "This chart sounds bullish but its a little deceptive because its pulling from the household survey not the payroll survey. The household survey counts people (including self employed and farm) and full time just means 35+ usual hours it does not mean higher pay better benefits or even that the economy created a bunch of new payroll jobs. January is also a heavy seasonal adjustment month and BLS is literally in the middle of methodological changes and big benchmark rewrites. So treating a one month full time jump like clean signal is exactly how you get fooled at turning points. The bigger" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021647667026084248) 2026-02-11T18:08Z 72.3K followers, 12.4K engagements "What this chart clearly shows is that the previously published payroll story was too rosy and the current with revisions line drags the whole [--------] trend lower. That matters. It means the economy was closer to stall speed for longer than the tape suggested and the market spent a year reacting to a labor market that looked sturdier than what the tax record backfill ultimately supports. I disagree with treating the fact that the revised data makes January look less weak as proof that the economy is stabilizing. The BLS itself basically warns you not to do that. They say the 90% confidence" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021652402512830505) 2026-02-11T18:27Z 72.3K followers, 13K engagements "This is the housing system moving from an artificially suppressed foreclosure regime back toward reality and then overshooting a bit because the underlying household math has gotten worse. Foreclosures didnt improve in 20202022; they were essentially turned off by moratoriums forbearance and procedural guardrails. Once those programs sunsetted the pipeline didnt just restart overnight. It takes time for missed payments to become default for loss mit options to be exhausted and for servicers to actually file. Thats why you get this slow grind higher.Q4 [----] jumps to 58k from 41k in Q4 [----] but" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021669434809569381) 2026-02-11T19:35Z 72.3K followers, 20.1K engagements "@JagerMario The Fed cuts rates because they see things breaking in the economy. Unemployment will continue to go up" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2022016447992803396) 2026-02-12T18:34Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements "I think youre confusing more loans getting done with the market being healthy again. Lending can bounce just because last year was dead and the only stuff trading now is the easy high quality deals that still pencil. Thats just money crowding into the safest parts of CRE. And extensions dont mean lenders feel great about NOI. Extensions usually mean the opposite that the refinance math doesnt work at todays rates so everyone buys time. If things were truly stable youd see clean refis without paydowns extra reserves and tighter terms. What CBRE is signaling is the messy part of the market is" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2022100525336895700) 2026-02-13T00:08Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements "Amphenol: The Quiet Backbone of the Modern Economy The Company That Powers Everything At first glance Amphenol ($APH) looks like a typical industrial supplier with connectors cables sensors but those mundane components form the circulatory system of the digital world. Its products are embedded everywhere: in data centers powering AI models electric vehicles aerospace systems 5G infrastructure medical devices and industrial automation. It connects the future. Thats why the companys stock chart looks like a long term structural uptrend rather than a cyclical one. Amphenol has quietly compounded" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1981830237336825867) 2025-10-24T21:08Z 72.3K followers, 16.1K engagements "A Financial Head Start or a Financial Capture On the surface Invest America is pitched as a bipartisan effort to give kids a financial head start with tax advantaged accounts from birth a $1000 federal deposit for babies born [--------] and a $6.25B philanthropic boost that seeds [--] million older children with $250. But if you look at it with a skeptical eye its also the creation of a huge new pipeline that pushes families into the financial system from day one. It isnt just about helping kids build wealth its about expanding the base of long duration savers who will automatically be buying" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996086947811373221) 2025-12-03T05:19Z 72.3K followers, 264.5K engagements "Where the Household Debt Stress Is Actually Building The NY Feds Q4 [----] Household Debt report can look fine if you only watch the big total. But the stress isnt in the headline number. Its in the parts of the household budget that get used when people are trying to make it to the next paycheck in things like credit cards autos and the messier to measure.student loans. Start with the big picture (why the headline can fool you) Total household debt rose $191B in Q4 to $18.8T (+1.0% QoQ). Its up $4.6T versus end of [----]. That sounds scary until you remember whats inside the total.mortgages are" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021330463466430557) 2026-02-10T21:08Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements "Americas Copper Pile Is A Policy Driven Market Warp The idea that the U.S. has amassed its largest copper inventory in more than three decades seems like an obvious growth signal where demand must be surging the AI buildout is pulling metal forward and copper is confirming expansion. But when the buildup is concentrated in exchange approved warehouses its often less about real end use demand and more about market structure with tariffs deliverability mechanics regional price premiums and traders repositioning supply ahead of a shifting policy regime. Whats Actually Happening Copper is" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021408248402756075) 2026-02-11T02:17Z 72.3K followers, 11.9K engagements "What the January Jobs Report Doesnt Want You to Notice At first glance this looks calm with payrolls up [------] and unemployment at 4.3%. But if you read it with a more skeptical lens the current month is almost a distraction. The real information is that BLS just rewrote [----] and that should change how much confidence you put in the steady labor market narrative. The Quiet Restatement That Changed The Narrative Buried in the benchmarking section is the March [----] payroll level where it was revised down by [------] (seasonally adjusted) and [------] (not seasonally adjusted) or -0.5%. More" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021639261263438247) 2026-02-11T17:35Z 72.3K followers, 28.5K engagements "Whatever happened to this show" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2022140177314111641) 2026-02-13T02:46Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements "(1/2) What Happens If Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz Strategic Context: The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical maritime chokepoint in the world. Roughly 20% of globally traded crude oil and 30% of global LNG shipments transit its narrow waters daily. If Iran were to close or significantly disrupt the Strait via mining anti ship missiles drone swarms or fast-attack naval craft it would initiate not just a regional crisis but a systemic shock to the global economy supply chains and security architecture. First-Order Effects (Immediate Week 1) Energy Spike: Crude oil could surge $30$60 in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1933696807021752580) 2025-06-14T01:23Z 72.3K followers, 1.4M engagements "When Gold Buys This Much Oil the Market Is Bracing for Something This chart is really just asking how much oil can you buy with gold And at about [----] grams per barrel the answer right now is a lot. Thats extreme. Historically you dont see oil this cheap relative to gold unless something is off in the real economy or people are paying up for insurance. Oil is tied to actual demand with shipping travel production. Gold is tied to trust uncertainty and the long arc of policy. When gold buys this much oil the market is leaning toward protection over growth. Look at the past troughs and the" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2002109660904431756) 2025-12-19T20:11Z 72.3K followers, 161.5K engagements "When credit card balances that are 90+ days delinquent climb back toward GFC territory (12.7% now vs 13.7% in 2009) thats a cash flow story. Credit cards are the most immediate stress gauge in the system because theyre unsecured floating rate and theyre what people lean on when wages dont cover the month. Historically you see this pattern before the economy feels like a recession in the headlines.2001 had a milder spike [------] was the big one. The common thread is the same that once delinquency gets this high lenders stop pretending its idiosyncratic and start treating it as systemic and they" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021642689016397926) 2026-02-11T17:49Z 72.3K followers, 28.6K engagements "This move by China is about monetary control in a tightening environment. Unapproved yuan linked stablecoins create a parallel financial rail Beijing doesnt fully command one that can quietly bypass capital controls weaken oversight of cross border flows and erode the central banks grip on liquidity. In a system already sensitive to capital flight and confidence shocks thats an unacceptable loss of control. More subtly this is also defensive geopolitics. Private stablecoins especially those operating offshore complicate Chinas long term strategy to channel digital payments through state" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2019867278947627388) 2026-02-06T20:14Z 72.3K followers, 13.2K engagements "Commercial Real Estate Values 📉 City and Town in U.S. Tax Revenues 📉 Residential Property Taxes 📈 BREAKING: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices jumped +103 basis points in January to a record 12.3%. This surpasses the post-2008 Financial Crisis peak by [---] percentage points. The CMBS delinquency rate has soared +600% over the https://t.co/VUZohI5gYK BREAKING: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices jumped +103 basis points in January to a record 12.3%. This surpasses the post-2008 Financial Crisis peak by" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020297488427823449) 2026-02-08T00:43Z 72.3K followers, 11.8K engagements "@grok @fejau_inc @BenKizemchuk @grok So you are telling me that its a 100% chance more or less that there will be a big correction" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2020970038694379583) 2026-02-09T21:16Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements "Why I Think Michael Burry Is Shutting Down Scion Now Lets put a few things togetherBurrys liquidation letter his depreciation thread on the hyperscalers and his me then me now Big Short meme and hes basically spelling out one story. He thinks were in an earnings inflated AI driven bubble that a value investor cant sit inside without eventually getting crushed. In the letter he says it plainly My estimation of value in securities is not now and has not been for some time in sync with the markets. Thats not a Im tired of running money line. Thats a man saying I cant reconcile what I see in the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988823273287635403) 2025-11-13T04:16Z 72.3K followers, 2.3M engagements "This is the BLS basically admitting the economy was weaker than the monthly tape made it look and a lot of resilient labor narratives were leaning on payrolls that didnt really exist once the tax records came in. Revisions like that usually happen when business births were overstated deaths were understated or the mix shifted in ways the monthly survey cant catch which is exactly what you see when a cycle rolls over quietly before the headlines change. The overlooked part is timing. Markets and policymakers trade the monthly prints like theyre the present but benchmarks are the past finally" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021641603652497448) 2026-02-11T17:44Z 72.3K followers, 13.5K engagements "Zondas lot index rises when the stock of finished lots is growing or when the pace of starts slows and lots stop getting absorbed. That second part is the tell. Builders dont pull back on starts because theyre euphoric. They pull back because traffic is choppy incentives are doing the heavy lifting and the buyer who would have cleared inventory at 3% mortgages isnt there at todays payment. So the index moving back toward slightly undersupplied is less about a supply boom and more about the market shifting from supply constrained to demand constrained at the margin. The overlooked signal is" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021797745141465279) 2026-02-12T04:05Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements "Hankes right that money matters but China isnt living in a textbook where you dial M2 up and CPI obediently follows. The problem isnt just the quantity of money its the willingness to use it. When property is broken and confidence is shot households save firms dont invest banks roll bad loans instead of making new ones and velocity collapses. In that world you can have healthy M2 growth and still get near zero inflation because the money is trapped in the system not chasing goods and wages. This is more a broken transmission story. China is flirting with Japan style dynamics with deflation" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2021806225306878455) 2026-02-12T04:39Z 72.3K followers, 14.1K engagements "The China Deflation Chart That Explains Everything That chart is a warning that Chinas core problem is nominal income. The GDP deflator is the economy wide price level inside GDP and the gap between nominal growth and real growth. When it stays negative for a long stretch you can still post real growth but the cash flows that actually service debt support profits and fund government budgets dont keep up. Thats why GDP deflator deflation is so corrosive because it quietly turns a slowdown into a balance sheet problem. The chart is basically saying China doesnt have the freedom to slam the" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2023102406481879508) 2026-02-15T18:29Z 72.3K followers, 12.5K engagements "The [--] Year Is The Feds Lie Detector If you want to know what the bond market actually believes watch the [--] year. Its not a crystal ball but its where traders express the cleanest what does the Fed do next view. It reacts fast when growth cools inflation fades or the market starts sensing the Fed will eventually blink. And right now its blinking. What Its Saying In Plain English The Fed is holding policy around 3.53.75 after cutting a few times late last year then pausing to assess. Meanwhile the [--] year is down around [---] below the policy band. That gap is the market quietly telling you it" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2023128190596608097) 2026-02-15T20:12Z 72.3K followers, 28.5K engagements "Three Quiet Charts That Say More About the U.S. Economy Than the Headlines Most macro debates get trapped in the loud stuff.one jobs print one inflation print one Fed quote. These three charts are quieter but theyre the kind of quiet that tends to matter. Together theyre pointing to the same late cycle story that the labor market is less solid than it looks job growth is getting more defensive and the Treasury market is leaning harder on intermediaries to digest supply. The Jobs Story Gets Rewritten After The Fact The first chart is the annual benchmark revision to Nonfarm Payrolls. Its a" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/2023139499639763192) 2026-02-15T20:56Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements "Why I Think Michael Burry Is Shutting Down Scion Now Lets put a few things togetherBurrys liquidation letter his depreciation thread on the hyperscalers and his me then me now Big Short meme and hes basically spelling out one story. He thinks were in an earnings inflated AI driven bubble that a value investor cant sit inside without eventually getting crushed. In the letter he says it plainly My estimation of value in securities is not now and has not been for some time in sync with the markets. Thats not a Im tired of running money line. Thats a man saying I cant reconcile what I see in the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988823273287635403) 2025-11-13T04:16Z 72.3K followers, 2.3M engagements "Lumber is one of the most sensitive barometers of future demand because it ties directly into housing construction and credit. When it rolls over this hard it often means something deeper: builders pulling back financing tightening and consumers hesitating on big-ticket commitments. Weve seen this before. In [------] lumber collapsed long before the housing bust became obvious. In [------] lumbers spike and crash captured the whiplash of pandemic stimulus meeting Fed tightening. Todays drop back under $600 is telling us not just about oversupply but about fading demand in an economy where" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957517597328712012) 2025-08-18T18:58Z 72.3K followers, 1M engagements "BREAKING 🚨: Lumber Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 📉📉" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957511500085752072) 2025-08-18T18:34Z 478.5K followers, 1.1M engagements "This is one of the clearest signals yet that the Bank of Japan has lost control of the long end of the curve. Japans 30-year yield hitting 2.845% its highest since [----] isnt just a local event. This has global knock-on effects: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries and a key player in the global carry trade. Rising JGB yields force Japanese institutions to repatriate capital unwind overseas positions and pull back on USD asset exposure adding pressure to U.S. yields and FX volatility. This spike also signals the end of the deflationary regime that underpinned global risk" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911831993634914608) 2025-04-14T17:20Z 72.3K followers, 1.1M engagements "Imagine loading up on risk at SPX [----] with 1% GDP growth negative earnings growth and 5% inflation next quarter" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911830020554678527) 2025-04-14T17:12Z 138.6K followers, 992.3K engagements "Monroe Doctrine 2.0: Why Venezuela Guyana and Colombia suddenly matter a lot Strip away the rhetoric and Washingtons fixation on the northern rim of South America is about two things: who controls the hemispheres next decade of oil flows and who controls the chokepoints and minerals that power modern industry. Venezuela holds the worlds largest crude reserves with heavy barrels tailor made for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Guyana has become one of the fastest growing oil provinces on earth anchored by a U.S. operator. Layer onto that the scramble for rare earths and magnet materials and" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980025408448807301) 2025-10-19T21:36Z 72.3K followers, 373.7K engagements "The Bessent Signal: Why This Isnt Just a Routine Update Scott Bessent now acting as U.S. Treasury Secretary announcing a speech on the state of the financial system tomorrow at 10:00am. This is at a time when swap spreads are imploding gold is soaring FX vol is flashing red and T-bill auction demand is shifting from foreign to domestic fallback buyers (MMFs Berkshire Fed rollovers) is not a coincidence. This isnt just a check-in. Its a signal. Heres the case: Timing is everything. His speech comes the morning after coordinated FX anomalies (see USDEUR*USDILS) UVIX/SVIX divergence manipulation" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914767341759672407) 2025-04-22T19:44Z 72.3K followers, 537.1K engagements "Gold is breaking through its inflation adjusted peak from [----] a level that stood untouched for [--] years. Moves of this magnitude dont happen in quiet times. They usually mean the market is sending a signal that confidence in the existing monetary framework is eroding. Back in [----] gold exploded higher after the U.S. left the gold standard inflation ran hot and trust in paper assets collapsed. Todays rally rhymes with that history but the drivers are different. This time its a toxic mix of ballooning U.S. debt and deficits questions around Fed credibility geopolitical fractures and record" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965243828723482892) 2025-09-09T02:40Z 72.3K followers, 272.9K engagements "Gold has finally taken out its 45-year inflation adjusted record high 🚨 Congrats everyone we did it 🥳🤑🫂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965190541831963099) 2025-09-08T23:08Z 478.5K followers, 593.9K engagements "What were witnessing tonight isnt the birth of a bull market its a mirage formed by narrative whiplash and liquidity exhaustion. The spike in futures following Trumps comments is less about policy and more about psychological relief. Markets are starved for any catalyst that offers a pathway out of the tightening vise of global funding stress swap spread inversions and deflationary positioning. But this is not structural its reactive. When you peel back the surface the macro plumbing tells a very different story. SOFR stress is still rising. 3-year swap spreads are negative. USD/JPY continues" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914838801253286056) 2025-04-23T00:28Z 72.3K followers, 536.1K engagements "BREAKING: US stock market futures surge at the [--] PM ET open on Trumps comments" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914801801569697981) 2025-04-22T22:01Z 1.4M followers, 703.4K engagements "Argentina is one of the worlds largest holders of lithium copper and rare earth minerals critical materials for electric vehicles semiconductors and defense systems. Whoever secures Argentinas mineral trade secures leverage in the clean energy and tech future. By setting up a $20 billion currency swap and buying pesos the U.S. is quietly reasserting dollar control in a region where China has made serious inroads through yuan swap lines and mining partnerships. Argentina has been drifting toward the yuan for trade settlements. This deal pulls it back into the dollar system. This also lets the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976495688302186730) 2025-10-10T03:51Z 72.3K followers, 329.5K engagements "Ingraham: U.S. Treasury finalized $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina What do we get out of it Bessent: We get a lot out of it he is committed to getting China out of Argentina Ingraham: Its not a bailout Bessent: Not a bailout at all buy low sell high. The Argentine peso is undervalued" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976427243867181256) 2025-10-09T23:19Z 714.7K followers, 1.4M engagements "If current trends continue we are likely [--] to [--] months away from the full onset of the largest global easing cycle in modern financial history and we may already be in the early stages of it. The seeds are being sown by a toxic convergence: weakening global demand rising sovereign debt servicing costs trade war escalation and rapidly deteriorating Treasury auctions (evidenced by tail size and poor bid-to-covers). Central banks particularly the Fed are boxed in by structurally high deficits and a politically untenable cost of capital. As growth slows under the weight of tariffs and tighter" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909658996979417504) 2025-04-08T17:25Z 72.3K followers, 196.4K engagements "Japan Is the Fuse. The U.S. Is the Bomb. The cracks in global bond markets just turned into fractures. Japans 20-year government bond (JGB) auction was the worst since [----]. Bid-to-cover ratios collapsed. Yields on the 30-year spiked to 3.12% and the 40-year hit an all-time record. This isnt a one-off technical failure its the first sovereign domino tipping over in a structure thats held the global system together for decades. Heres what most dont see: Japans bond market isnt isolated. Its the keystone of global yield suppression. For years Japanese institutions propped up the global bond" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924893312198099374) 2025-05-20T18:21Z 72.3K followers, 978.6K engagements "Which bond market fails first US or Japan. Place your bets. 🧐" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924890330224312367) 2025-05-20T18:09Z 85.6K followers, 244.5K engagements "Whats Really Driving the 10-Year Yield Higher The 10-year Treasury yield just climbed to 4.542% and its not because the economy is overheating. Heres whats actually happening under the hood: This move in the 10Y is a stress signal not a growth signal. While CPI is cooling and GDP just contracted in Q1 (-0.3%) the long end is still rising. Why Because were watching the bond market try to absorb a flood of issuance without its historical buyers. Foreign official demand is weak. Domestic balance sheet capacity is saturated. And with the Fed still engaged in QT (Quantitative Tightening) theres no" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922797293557649425) 2025-05-14T23:32Z 72.3K followers, 265.3K engagements "This is why Powells hint about ending QT matters so much. QT drains reserves out of the system every week and with the reverse repo facility nearly empty theres less margin for error. When Powell says hes starting to see money market tightening hes effectively acknowledging that the Fed has hit the edge of how far it can push quantitative tightening without risking dysfunction in repo markets T-bill liquidity or bank reserve levels. Its the same pressure point that led to the September [----] repo spike only now the balance sheet is much larger and the Treasurys financing needs are far heavier." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978154638567158094) 2025-10-14T17:43Z 72.3K followers, 275.5K engagements "*POWELL: STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE TIGHTENING IN MONEY MARKETS oopsie" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978141810850517326) 2025-10-14T16:52Z 2.5M followers, 846.8K engagements "This 39% tariff on [--] kilogram and [---] ounce gold bars from Switzerland is a calculated move with immediate market consequences. The July [--] U.S. Customs ruling reclassified these bars the exact formats COMEX accepts for delivery into a tariffed category. Thats critical because Switzerland is the worlds largest gold refining hub and a substantial share of the physical gold that underpins COMEX futures flows from there. Within hours of the news premiums for New York gold futures jumped above the spot price signaling that deliverable supply into the U.S. market had abruptly tightened. Swiss" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953635031630381255) 2025-08-08T01:51Z 72.3K followers, 239.4K engagements "COMEX trades in [--] kg [---] oz bars; this could affect gold price immediately" [X Link](https://x.com/TOzgokmen/status/1953578058453332429) 2025-08-07T22:04Z 15.5K followers, 203.7K engagements "This is basically a stimulus plan dressed up as a rebate. The idea of using tariff money makes it sound like its paid for but in reality its closer to a form of universal basic income. And the timing says a lot the economys clearly showing cracks: job losses are starting oil prices are falling because demand is weak and people are literally searching for second jobs just to keep up. Dropping $1000$2000 into every taxpayers pocket would be a quick way to pump money back into the system and keep spending from collapsing. Tariffs are just the cover story the real goal is to get cash flowing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973875367950664138) 2025-10-02T22:18Z 72.3K followers, 154.7K engagements "JUST IN: President Trump says he is considering $1000 - $2000 stimulus checks for all taxpayers using tariff revenue" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973851037695127821) 2025-10-02T20:42Z 3.8M followers, 5.1M engagements "The Repricing of Trust in a Fractured Collateral System Gold hitting $4000 is the sign that the global financial system is starting to revalue gold as a form of collateral not just as a metal or hedge. The real story is about how institutions and central banks are quietly changing how gold fits into the plumbing of global finance. Collateral is about trust and liquidity. When a bank or clearinghouse accepts an asset as collateral its because that asset can be easily valued transferred and relied upon in times of stress. For decades U.S. Treasuries have been the foundation of that system" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975376584690250097) 2025-10-07T01:44Z 72.3K followers, 269.4K engagements "JUST IN 🚨: Gold hits $4000 for the first time in history 📈📈 Congrats everyone we did it 🥳🫂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975371581024313701) 2025-10-07T01:24Z 478.5K followers, 286.9K engagements "Chipotles latest earnings call was a real time snapshot of the American consumer. On paper the results looked mixed. Earnings per share came in at $0.29 right on target but revenue of $3.0 billion fell short of expectations by about $30 million. Comparable sales were up just 0.3% and even that small gain came from higher average check sizes not more customers walking through the door. For the third straight quarter Chipotle cut its full year same store sales outlook now projecting only low single digit growth instead of flat. The message was clear enough the consumer is slowing down and the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983718225109041228) 2025-10-30T02:10Z 72.3K followers, 405.7K engagements "BREAKING: Chipotle stock $CMG collapses nearly -15% as the company says that younger diners are pulling back" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983651956402131222) 2025-10-29T21:47Z 1.4M followers, 3M engagements "The Bond Market Just Broke And No Ones Sounding the Alarm Yields are screaming. The Fed is boxed in. And the U.S. government just got a margin call from the global market. [--]. What Just Happened Today U.S. Treasury yields detonated across the curve: 10-Year Yield: +10.7bps to 4.38% 5-Year Yield: +12.1bps to 3.99% 2-Year Yield: +9.1bps to 3.88% 30-Year Yield: now sitting at a cycle high of 4.85% This isnt a soft landing adjustment. Its a bond market protest a sharp repricing of U.S. fiscal credibility inflation risk and institutional confidence. [--]. This Is Not a Drill. Its a Breakdown. The" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920601097015599264) 2025-05-08T22:05Z 72.3K followers, 596.1K engagements "That thing is happening again" [X Link](https://x.com/PikerCapital/status/1920578956241051780) 2025-05-08T20:38Z 10.1K followers, 753.1K engagements "Regional bank stocks are sliding again shows that the market is waking up to the underlying fragility in their balance sheets. When the [--] year yield falls this fast it usually means investors see a shift from inflation risk to credit risk. Thats bad news for smaller and mid sized banks because theyre heavily exposed to commercial real estate carry a lot of low yielding assets from the zero rate era and have to fund themselves in a much tighter environment now that emergency facilities like the Feds BTFP have expired. These banks are getting squeezed from both sides. Deposit costs are rising" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978877234057265565) 2025-10-16T17:34Z 72.3K followers, 175.9K engagements "Regional banking crisis [---] Pay attention. Thanks for listening Regional banking. Something ominous brewing. https://t.co/QPWkNlTj0l Regional banking. Something ominous brewing. https://t.co/QPWkNlTj0l" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978863517261295727) 2025-10-16T16:40Z 177.6K followers, 633K engagements "The Risk of the U.S. Economy No One Is Talking About If the Fed cuts rates in September history suggests it will likely confirm the beginning of an easing cycle that coincides with rising unemployment. Every sustained easing cycle of the past half century has followed not prevented economic deterioration. This time the risks stretch across every layer of the credit system leaving households banks pensions and governments exposed. Corporate bonds are the first fault line. High yield still pays north of 7% and investment grade 56% but spreads are near historic lows leaving little buffer against" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961624872985186421) 2025-08-30T02:59Z 72.3K followers, 190.4K engagements "This might look like just another central bank liquidity move but its not. The BOJ stepping in to supply U.S. dollars against pooled collateral starting July [--] is one of those quiet technical shifts that says more than any press release ever could. To me this is about whats coming for the entire global dollar system. What I think is going on is Japanese institutions are feeling the squeeze. Theyve been running massive USD carry trades borrowing in yen buying U.S. assets hedging the FX. That worked when dollar liquidity was easy and the hedge was cheap. But with Powell holding rates high and" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944959111449190649) 2025-07-15T03:16Z 72.3K followers, 334.1K engagements "BOJ to supply USD funds against pooled collateral from July 17" [X Link](https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1944948945094107230) 2025-07-15T02:35Z 639.3K followers, 131.5K engagements "What youre seeing is a sharp divergence between listed private credit proxies (a Blackstone BDC and Blue Owls stock) and the S&P [---]. The index is levitating on mega cap tech momentum and easing policy hopes but private credit is pricing a very different cycle with tighter cash flows at borrowers rising loss expectations and margin compression ahead. Private credits core exposure is floating rate loans to middle market sponsor backed companies. Higher short rates were a tailwind at first yields reset up quickly while credit losses were still muted so BDC earnings looked great. That phase is" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973140523218268667) 2025-09-30T21:38Z 72.3K followers, 420.4K engagements "Japans Bond Market: The Global Sovereign Debt Bubble Is Fracturing Post: Japans 30-year government bond yield just hit 3.13% the highest level in history. But this isnt just a local market move. Its a global alarm bell. Heres why it matters: [--]. This Isnt a Japan Story. Its a Global Stress Signal. For decades Japans long-term bond yields were suppressed under Yield Curve Control (YCC) a pillar of the deflationary low-rate world. That pillar is now cracking. The Bank of Japan is either losing control of the long end or choosing to exit slowly. Either outcome breaks the global feedback loop." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925009155191865443) 2025-05-21T02:02Z 72.3K followers, 151K engagements "Japan's 30-year bond yield jumps to 3.13% its highest level in history" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924993955852116325) 2025-05-21T01:01Z 478.5K followers, 1M engagements "(1/2) What Happens If Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz Strategic Context: The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical maritime chokepoint in the world. Roughly 20% of globally traded crude oil and 30% of global LNG shipments transit its narrow waters daily. If Iran were to close or significantly disrupt the Strait via mining anti ship missiles drone swarms or fast-attack naval craft it would initiate not just a regional crisis but a systemic shock to the global economy supply chains and security architecture. First-Order Effects (Immediate Week 1) Energy Spike: Crude oil could surge $30$60 in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1933696807021752580) 2025-06-14T01:23Z 72.3K followers, 1.4M engagements "This chart may appear to signal a breakdown in the dollar but in reality it may be the staging ground for one of the most violent reversals in recent history. DXY is testing the lower bound of a multi-decade ascending channel a level that has repeatedly marked inflection points since [----]. Every time weve touched this range the dollar has launched higher. Yet what makes this moment unique is the timing: the Fed is on the cusp of rate cuts. While conventional wisdom sees easing as dollar negative the structure of global finance often flips that logic. When the Fed cuts into a disinflationary" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941724178672980296) 2025-07-06T05:01Z 72.3K followers, 166.2K engagements "Now or never for the U.S. Dollar $DXY" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941719422734840207) 2025-07-06T04:42Z 478.5K followers, 579.6K engagements "Wall Street dealers lined up with nearly $24 billion of old long dated Treasuries they wanted to dump. The Treasury only took $2 billion and just from one specific issue. Thats not because they couldnt take more. Its because this isnt QE. Theyre not trying to pump markets or cut rates. What theyre doing is clearing out the hardest to trade bonds that are gumming up the system. Think of it like a highway. When a few broken down trucks are blocking lanes traffic slows to a crawl even if the road itself is fine. In bond markets those broken down trucks are old illiquid bonds trading at steep" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969194412132405753) 2025-09-20T00:18Z 72.3K followers, 169.2K engagements "Second time in a row that US buys back debt and we dip" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969098022173724760) 2025-09-19T17:55Z 244.7K followers, 204.3K engagements "This chart is showing that money market funds basically cash parked in ultra short instruments have swelled to an all time high of $7.4 trillion. We only see buildups like this when investors want yield but dont want to take on duration or equity risk. It happened after the dot com bust again after the GFC and in [------] when rates were floored and money waited on the sidelines. Right now elevated yields north of 5% have made cash unusually attractive but that dynamic wont last if the Fed starts cutting. If the Fed trims [--] or [--] basis points on September [--] yields on money funds savings" [X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1965207300295086221) 2025-09-09T00:15Z 72.3K followers, 109.4K engagements "$7.4 Trillion is now sitting in money market funds an all-time high 🚨🚨" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965165503858745733) 2025-09-08T21:29Z 478.5K followers, 834.8K engagements "If Trumps announcement today of a 90-day tariff pause was truly bullish and risk-on why did we see 10Y yields spike to 4.50%+ SOFR swap spreads collapse to [------] gold rip $107 intraday junk bond yields hit 8.51% and TLT get liquidated on record volume all while equities soared Shouldnt these indicators have calmed not worsened Is this not confirmation that the tariff news was a sideshow and the real story is a hidden collateral or funding crisis unraveling in real time" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910070031519568350) 2025-04-09T20:39Z 72.3K followers, 102.7K engagements "Whats happening with Nexperia goes way beyond a simple regulatory move by the Dutch government this is a front line moment in the global tech power struggle between the West and China. On paper the Netherlands says its stepping in because of administrative shortcomings and national security risks. But in reality this is about cutting off one of Chinas quiet backdoors into Western chip technology. Nexperia may be based in Europe but its owned by Chinas Wingtech and the fear is that valuable know how could end up back in Chinese hands. By freezing Nexperias corporate decisions and removing its" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977550998253060508) 2025-10-13T01:44Z 72.3K followers, 125.1K engagements "Dutch government takes control of Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia https://on.ft.com/4n63Vce https://on.ft.com/4n63Vce" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977505059656060958) 2025-10-12T22:42Z 6.4M followers, 2.7M engagements "The bond market is quietly saying the economy is losing momentum. When yields drop like this across the curve especially with the [--] year back below 4% its a sign that both borrowers and lenders are pulling back. Households are hitting their limits with high credit card and loan rates businesses are delaying expansion and banks are tightening credit instead of growing it. In that kind of environment money itself gets cheaper not because the Fed is cutting rates but because fewer people want to borrow it. At the same time investors are shifting into longer term Treasuries for safety and income" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980389837447524516) 2025-10-20T21:45Z 72.3K followers, 168.1K engagements "Rates are falling. Credit demand is decaying" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980368152992313822) 2025-10-20T20:18Z 21.1K followers, 150.4K engagements "Switzerlands Negative Yields Are Back And Its a Global Red Flag Not a Local Anomaly A remarkable event just unfolded quietly in global bond markets Swiss government bonds with maturities up to [--] years are once again offering negative yields. Investors are literally paying the Swiss government for the privilege of lending them money. While this may sound like a local curiosity its anything but. This is a critical signal of deep systemic fractures emerging across global financial markets. Why This Matters: A Signal of Global Capital Distress Whenever you see investors accepting guaranteed" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921334194707329210) 2025-05-10T22:39Z 72.3K followers, 633K engagements "The Comeback of Negative Interest Rates: In Switzerland govt bonds w/maturities of up to 4yrs are once again offering negative yields. In other words investors effectively pay to lend money to the Swiss government" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921330787053363331) 2025-05-10T22:25Z 365.3K followers, 323.5K engagements "Sherwin Williams cutting its 401(k) match is a pretty loud signal about where the cracks are showing in the economy. The company lives and dies by housing turnover and renovation cycles. Normally people buying and selling homes drive paint demand and DIY projects keep the volume steady. But with mortgage rates still locking people into their old homes that churn has dried up. At the same time households have been dealing with higher costs for years so discretionary spending on remodeling and upgrades has softened. Layer on tariffs that are pushing up costs for key materials like pigments and" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967408113604002207) 2025-09-15T02:00Z 72.3K followers, 129.2K engagements "SHERWIN-WILLIAMS SUSPENDS 401K CONTRIBUTION MATCHING AS PROFITS SLUMP -- PREVIOUS SUSPENSIONS TOOK PLACE DURING COVID LOCKDOWNS & GFC: CLEVELAND DOT COM ### $SHW" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967085487707099601) 2025-09-14T04:38Z 25.9K followers, 118.1K engagements "The Bank of Japan once the worlds most aggressive monetary expansionist is now shrinking its bond holdings faster than any period in modern history with a [---] trillion decline in Q1 alone. This is a foundational reordering of global liquidity assumptions. For decades the BOJ acted as the silent ballast in the global carry trade suppressing volatility and subsidizing global leverage through ultra loose policy. But now Japan is effectively reversing course just as global bond markets are digesting higher for longer rate regimes and geopolitical capital fragmentation. What makes this move" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935668970490662997) 2025-06-19T12:00Z 72.3K followers, 60.4K engagements "When volatility suddenly spikes like this risk models used by hedge funds and big institutions called value at risk or VAR models automatically tell them to cut exposure. Once those models trip the selling becomes mechanical programs start dumping assets to stay within risk limits. Thats what he means by nothing he says can prevent program selling. Its not emotion driven selling; its algorithmic risk control. Where hes right is that once this process starts it feeds on itself. The higher the volatility the more these systems sell which creates even more volatility. But Id add that catalysts" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976811680349737391) 2025-10-11T00:46Z 72.3K followers, 132.5K engagements "When this happens you have VAR shocks. Trump was not the reason and nothing he says can prevent program selling" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976799444810248448) 2025-10-10T23:58Z 57.3K followers, 304.6K engagements "Because its not about funding availability its about the terms and conditionality of funding when your debt underpins the entire global financial system. The U.S. isnt like other sovereigns. It doesnt just borrow to fund itself it issues the asset that anchors collateral chains settles FX swaps backs derivatives and serves as margin for global risk-taking. Other nations borrow in markets. The U.S. is the market. And thats the paradox: when your debt is systemically central it must be perceived as stable liquid and low volatility or else the entire global leverage system begins to crack. Thats" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910159291329183775) 2025-04-10T02:33Z 72.3K followers, 83.1K engagements "This is a classic late cycle disconnect between credit markets and the real economy. Investment grade spreads are at their tightest since [----] which means investors are treating corporate debt as if it carries virtually no risk premium over Treasuries. In other words the market is pricing near perfection with steady growth low default risk and benign inflation. But thats at odds with whats happening under the surface: payrolls have started to weaken revisions have shown job creation was overstated and leading indicators point toward a slowdown. Investors desperate for yield pile into credit" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967947812379005075) 2025-09-16T13:44Z 72.3K followers, 99.2K engagements "Spreads on investment-grade bonds are at the lowest levels since 1998" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967910459786645968) 2025-09-16T11:16Z 427.7K followers, 592K engagements "Japans Sovereign Bond Market Just Sent a Global Warning Shot Japans 30-year government bond yield has surged past 3.13% a historic move that marks the highest long-end yield Japan has seen in modern times. But this isnt just a domestic policy failure. Its a structural stress signal for the entire global bond market. Heres what it means: For decades Japan was the anchor of low-yield low-volatility sovereign debt. The BOJs yield curve control policy kept long-end borrowing costs artificially suppressed even with a staggering 260% debt-to-GDP ratio. That illusion is now unraveling. The long end" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924831549683298535) 2025-05-20T14:16Z 72.3K followers, 155.2K engagements "Japan's bond market is imploding: Japan's 30Y Government Bond Yield has officially surged to its highest level in history at 3.15%. For decades Japan was known for low long-term interest rates. Now they are dealing with high inflation shifting policy outlook and a whopping 260% Debt-to-GDP ratio. On top of this Japan holds $1.1 TRILLION worth of US debt making it the largest foreign holder of US debt. Yesterday Japans Prime Minister Ishiba called the situation worse than Greece. What will Japan do here" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924804123188175253) 2025-05-20T12:27Z 1.4M followers, 1.8M engagements "BREAKING: U.S. LAWMAKERS UNVEIL SWEEPING CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE BILLA MAJOR STEP TOWARD FEDERAL OVERSIGHT What Stands Out Most What jumps off the page is how comprehensive this bill is. It isnt just crypto regulation its a full integration blueprint for how digital assets get absorbed into the U.S. financial architecture. The CFTC would become the primary regulator for digital commodities creating a single national standard and pulling spot markets onshore. Thats a big deal geopolitically. It reasserts U.S. control over an ecosystem thats been scattering across offshore exchanges tax havens" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988049603892015451) 2025-11-11T01:02Z 72.3K followers, 129.7K engagements "This chart is a glaring signal of liquidity stress and a loss of confidence in sovereign debt markets. Under normal macro conditions equity drawdowns of this magnitude are typically accompanied by falling yields as capital flees to safety. But here the 10-year yield is rising sharply even as the S&P [---] drops over 4.5% in three hours. This divergence suggests that investors are dumping both stocks and bonds a clear sign of forced deleveraging not rotation. The market is no longer confident that Treasuries will act as a hedge and instead sees them as part of the systemic risk. What the bond" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909660131828064689) 2025-04-08T17:30Z 72.3K followers, 74.4K engagements "This chart from @nickgerli1 is essential context for anyone thinking about buying a home right now and it reinforces the argument I made recently in my post So youre thinking about buying a house soon Heres why you should wait. What were looking at here is [---] years of U.S. home price history adjusted for inflation using the Case-Shiller index. The takeaway is clear: todays prices arent just elevated theyre historically anomalous. The index is now 90% above its long-term average and the only comparable spike (2006) ended in a catastrophic reset. Theres simply no precedent for this kind of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936145767804055761) 2025-06-20T19:34Z 72.3K followers, 64.1K engagements "For those begging for rate cuts look back at [----] and [----]. The Fed started cutting right before unemployment spiked. The pivot wasnt a win it was the signal that the real damage was about to hit. If the economy was healthy and booming there would be no need to cut rates" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957635173912027613) 2025-08-19T02:46Z 72.3K followers, 66.1K engagements "(1) Heres the full breakdown of what likely happened between April [--] and April [--] [----] and what it suggests going forward: April 7: The Tariff Pause That Wasnt At 10:15 AM ET on April [--] markets were jolted by a rumor that President Trump was pausing all tariffs for [--] days excluding China. The S&P [---] exploded over [---] points intraday reversing deep early losses. But beneath that rally something far more ominous was happening. Multiple real-time stress signals lit up across global markets: 10Y Treasury yield spiked 30+ bps one of the largest intraday reversals in modern historynot consistent" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910053041338028154) 2025-04-09T19:31Z 72.3K followers, 131.5K engagements "Heres what COULD be happening beneath the surface: were witnessing a coordinated pause by the Fed and Treasury not out of strength or stability but as a last-ditch effort to stall systemic collapse while they prepare the architecture for a new monetary regime. The plumbing of the global dollar system is breaking down basis trades are unraveling swap spreads are collapsing into negative territory SOFR-Fed Funds spreads are inverted and long-end Treasuries are being sold into weakness not bought. And yet the Fed isnt stepping in. Thats not because things are fine its because they cant move" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909818797625860263) 2025-04-09T04:00Z 72.3K followers, 110.9K engagements "What Trump announced today a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and new export controls on critical U.S. software is one of those moments that shifts the trajectory of the global economy whether or not its actually implemented. Even if these measures never fully take effect the threat alone changes how companies investors and governments behave. It signals that the worlds two largest economies are no longer trying to manage their rivalry theyre preparing to decouple. If it does go through the effects could be dramatic. Its not just a rerun of the trade wars from [----] this would be more like a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976758886003593615) 2025-10-10T21:16Z 72.3K followers, 162.2K engagements "BREAKING: President Trump announces a 100% tariff on China starting November 1st and export controls on "any and all critical software."" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976753814754541722) 2025-10-10T20:56Z 1.4M followers, 1M engagements "Credit to @KobeissiLetter for his sharp thread on the UKs bond and fiscal crisis. He highlighted the surge in gilt yields the widening deficits and the BoEs impossible tradeoff. Where Ill take it further is by connecting these signals into the bigger picture of how they fit into global market stress and what the Fed and U.S. Treasury are likely aiming for next. The UK is the clearest warning sign. The [--] year gilt yield at 5.64% its highest since [----] is now fifteen times above its [----] lows. Moves like that dont happen in normal cycles; they happen at regime breaks. In the 1970s it was" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962728094919233609) 2025-09-02T04:03Z 72.3K followers, 97.7K engagements "The UK's bond market is collapsing: Today the yield on a 30Y Bond in the UK rose to 5.64% its highest level since [----]. Yields in the UK are now [--] TIMES higher than they were at the [----] low just [--] years ago. What is happening Let us explain. (a thread)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962532559121764502) 2025-09-01T15:06Z 1.4M followers, 4.7M engagements "The Domino Effect Begins: Jamie Dimons Cockroach Warning Coming To Fruition Jamie Dimons recent warning that when you see one cockroach there are probably more is now playing out almost line for line. First came Tricolor Holdings a subprime auto lender that collapsed under the weight of bad loans and alleged fraud. Then First Brands a heavily indebted auto parts manufacturer filed for Chapter [--]. Now PrimaLend Capital Partners another subprime lender has fallen after defaulting on its bond payments pushed into bankruptcy by unpaid creditors. These arent isolated blowups; theyre the first" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980992971840319512) 2025-10-22T13:41Z 72.3K followers, 108.9K engagements "Subprime Lender PrimaLend Enters Bankruptcy After Bond Default" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980968697201111443) 2025-10-22T12:05Z 2.5M followers, 514.6K engagements "The United States is preparing to stabilize Argentina through the Treasurys Exchange Stabilization Fund using instruments such as dollar swap lines direct peso purchases and targeted buying of Argentine sovereign bonds. This replicates the [----] Mexico rescue when swift U.S. intervention stopped a collapse and reinforced U.S. dominance in Latin America. In the short term these measures would steady the peso and place a floor under Argentine bond prices. In the longer view the purpose is alignment. With Argentina already consuming nearly half of the IMFs global lending capacity Washington is" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970226117383487978) 2025-09-22T20:38Z 72.3K followers, 108.4K engagements "Argentina is a systemically important U.S. ally in Latin America and the @USTreasury stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table. 1/4" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970107351912075454) 2025-09-22T12:46Z 823.3K followers, 9.8M engagements "What Kobeissi highlights about rate cuts at record highs is true on a [--] month view stocks usually end up higher. But rate cuts dont come in calm waters they come when unemployment is rising growth is stalling or stress is breaking things. Look back at [----] or [----]. The Fed cut hard and yes stocks eventually rallied but only after serious damage. In the dot com bust the S&P and Nasdaq collapsed unemployment climbed from 4% to above 6% and the recovery didnt come until that pain was absorbed. In [------] the Fed slashed rates to zero but unemployment still surged past 10% and markets endured a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1966974167170842697) 2025-09-13T21:16Z 72.3K followers, 156.1K engagements "Rate cuts at record highs: In [--] out of the last [--] times that the Fed has cut rates with the S&P [---] at record highs stocks ended higher [--] months later. In fact the S&P [---] rallied an average of 13.9% over the next [--] months according to Carson Research. However in [--] out of the last [--] times that this has happened stocks ended lower [--] month later. Near-term volatility will lead to long-term buying opportunities. The time has come: On Wednesday the Fed will cut rates for the first time in [----] and "blame" a weak labor market. This will be just the 3rd year since [----] with Fed rate cuts" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1966947490634363312) 2025-09-13T19:30Z 1.4M followers, 580.2K engagements "Silvers rise right now is the result of monetary shifts industrial demand and geopolitical restructuring all colliding at once. To understand it you have to see silver as the bridge between two worlds: the old monetary system thats losing credibility and the new energy and technology systems being built to replace it. On the monetary side investors are moving back into hard assets as confidence in fiat systems erodes. Global debt loads are at record highs central banks are quietly cutting exposure to Treasuries and real yields are rolling over. Gold has broken to all time highs but silver" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977848563892637823) 2025-10-13T21:26Z 72.3K followers, 140.5K engagements "SILVER HAS DONE IT 🚨🚨🚨 A new all-time high 📈🥳🫂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977789358762557601) 2025-10-13T17:31Z 478.5K followers, 319.6K engagements "Japans 30-year bond yield just spiked to 2.798% rising faster than U.S. long bonds an important signal that global bond markets are losing their most stable anchor. For decades Japans ultra-low yields supported global carry trades and suppressed volatility but this sharp move suggests either the Bank of Japan is quietly stepping back from yield curve control or forced selling is hitting Japans bond market amid global stress. This matters: rising Japanese yields can trigger FX volatility (especially in USD/JPY) disrupt global portfolio hedging and signal deeper instability in sovereign debt" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912140396227887557) 2025-04-15T13:46Z 72.3K followers, 98.3K engagements "In case you missed it: 30y Japanese govt bond yields have climbed even more sharply than their US counterparts. Since April [--] Japans 30y yield has risen 33bps while the US 30y yield is up 29bps over the same period. (HT @bilalhafeez123)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912116974269653242) 2025-04-15T12:13Z 365.3K followers, 119.7K engagements "Absolutely spot on @SantiagoAuFund and this is the fatal flaw in most de-dollarization narratives. People severely underestimate how much dollar-based liabilities anchor the global system. The moment the U.S. stops exporting dollars whether via trade deficits capital flows or Treasury issuance you create a global dollar shortage that slams everyone holding dollar-denominated obligations. 1.$13T in on-balance sheet USD debt is the visible iceberg sovereign bonds international corporate loans and trade financing that demand regular interest and principal repayments in dollars. Even slight" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911151807553741064) 2025-04-12T20:17Z 72.3K followers, 47K engagements "Historically new homes almost always commanded a premium because they offered fresh construction modern layouts and builder incentives were minor relative to demand. Existing homes carried the discount because they came with age inefficiencies or location trade offs. The inversion you see now with new homes being cheaper than existing means builders are being forced to liquidate at scale. They cant sit on unsold inventory when carrying costs (financing materials labor and land loans) are crushing them so they cut aggressively to move product. Meanwhile existing homeowners are sticky. Theyre" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957536666840621470) 2025-08-18T20:14Z 72.3K followers, 66.2K engagements "For the first time ever it is considerably cheaper to buy a new house than to buy an existing house. Likely signals an inflection point in the housing market" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957533447443845290) 2025-08-18T20:01Z 144.6K followers, 1.6M engagements "Waking Up From the Matrix The first real step toward understanding the world isnt about politics money or ideology its about seeing through the illusion that any of it was ever designed with your wellbeing in mind. The system doesnt care about you. Not the parties not the talking heads not the corporations funding them. The entire structure runs on your belief that it does. It survives by convincing you that if you just pick the right side shout loud enough or vote for the lesser evil something will finally change. But the truth is it wont because change isnt the goal. Control is. Once you" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982807158480626108) 2025-10-27T13:50Z 72.3K followers, 86.4K engagements "What Tether is doing here is survival. They already hold over [------] Bitcoin (worth about $7B) and more than $100B in U.S. Treasuries making them one of the largest private holders of U.S. government debt. That ties them directly into the plumbing of the dollar system. But now theyve layered in $8.7B of physical gold and even stakes in gold miners. That shift is a hedge against the cracks they see forming. The way they framed it is telling. Calling gold the Natural Bitcoin is just branding for the crypto crowd an attempt to avoid looking hypocritical to those whove been told Bitcoin is the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1964669107703611733) 2025-09-07T12:36Z 72.3K followers, 90.1K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@onechancefreedm EndGame Macro
The US economy is showing signs of stress, with indicators such as layoff announcements, declining home-builder confidence, and a shrinking prime-age workforce. Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with rising conflicts between the US and Iran, and Israel, and a potential shift in global liquidity. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady is seen as a strategic move to resist premature easing and maintain optionality for future policy actions.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [-------] -6.80%
- [--] Month [---------] -49%
- [--] Months [----------] +84%
- [--] Year [----------] +150,321%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [---] +54%
- [--] Month [---] -8.60%
- [--] Months [-----] +14%
- [--] Year [-----] +1,619%
Followers: [---------] #
- [--] Week [------] +0.09%
- [--] Month [------] +1.60%
- [--] Months [------] +68%
- [--] Year [------] +27,073%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance #5482 countries 18.09% cryptocurrencies 7.8% stocks 6.38% currencies 5.67% automotive brands 1.77% technology brands 1.06% financial services 1.06% travel destinations 1.06% celebrities 0.71%
Social topic influence in the 19.5%, liquidity #1083, bond #222, this is 9.22%, gold 9.22%, debt #294, yield 8.51%, inflation #136, breaking 7.8%, china #2141
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @scorpiotiger77 @grok @onechancefreedm @patriot5715 @travelingjagrs @freightalley @tozgokmen @benkizemchuk @bitcoinpoke @seanpaulkelley @tylermacro10 @lindgrenowitz @blackrock @e055michel1842 @greatmartis @fejauinc @nickgerli1 @jagermario @michaeljburry @ustreasury
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Losing 229k people to domestic migration in [----] is an improvement from the [------] trough but its still a big net outflow compared with the long run pattern. Historically when the line starts turning up from a deep low like this it usually doesnt snap back to zero overnight. It grinds higher in waves as the reasons people left fade slowly not suddenly. And the reasons havent really faded. The core driver is still the same with housing costs and day to day affordability versus what you can get elsewhere for the same income. Remote and hybrid work made it easier to act on that math and even as"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:19Z 72.3K followers, 11.3K engagements
"CBRE is basically a proxy for real estate liquidity so when deals stop clearing cap rates reset and lenders get picky transactions evaporate first and the brokers and servicers feel it before the headlines do. Thats why the only comparable tape tends to show up in true liquidity shocks like [------] and [----]. This kind of move usually means the deal machine is staying clogged longer than we thought. The deeper driver here is financing and price discovery with higher for longer rates tighter bank balance sheets and a refinancing wall that forces sales at discounts or extends and pretends. In"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:48Z 72.3K followers, 96.5K engagements
"AI is a convenient headline but it doesnt explain a 30% air pocket in [--] days. AI disruption is a slow multi year margin story. This kind of move is a liquidity and fee pool story. CBRE is basically a proxy for real estate transactions and refinancing activity so when cap rates reset lenders tighten and price discovery freezes the first thing that disappears is volume and fees. Thats fundamentals just not the kind that shows up neatly in last quarters EPS. If you want the tell look at what had to change overnight to justify that repricing. This isnt AI eating brokerage. Its the deal market"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:43Z 72.3K followers, 47.6K engagements
"How Margin Math Triggered a Cross Asset Flush Microsoft was the pressure point because it sits at the center of index exposure and systematic risk. On the surface the quarter looked fine.$81.3B in revenue (+17% YoY) and $4.14 in adjusted EPS (+24% YoY). But once investors moved past the headline beat the underlying picture was less comfortable. Key stress points in the earnings👇 Consumer facing weakness More Personal Computing revenue fell 3% YoY to $14.3B. Gaming revenue declined 9% in constant currency with Xbox content and services down 56%. Q3 guidance points to further pressure"
X Link 2026-01-29T17:09Z 72.3K followers, 195.5K engagements
"DeKalb is doing this for the same blunt reason a lot of districts are about to face which is fewer kids and too many buildings. Birth rates have been falling for years families have been moving around (often out of higher cost areas or into different parts of a county) and the result is a district with thousands of empty seats but the same fixed costs for staffing maintenance utilities and aging facilities. When enrollment drifts down budgets dont just shrink nicely with it because schools are lumpy assets and you cant half operate a building. So districts consolidate close or repurpose"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:23Z 72.3K followers, 13.7K engagements
"Whats happening with Nexperia goes way beyond a simple regulatory move by the Dutch government this is a front line moment in the global tech power struggle between the West and China. On paper the Netherlands says its stepping in because of administrative shortcomings and national security risks. But in reality this is about cutting off one of Chinas quiet backdoors into Western chip technology. Nexperia may be based in Europe but its owned by Chinas Wingtech and the fear is that valuable know how could end up back in Chinese hands. By freezing Nexperias corporate decisions and removing its"
X Link 2025-10-13T01:44Z 72.3K followers, 125.1K engagements
"What the S&P And Private Credit Split is Really Saying The S&P [---] (mega cap rate sensitive growth) has kept grinding higher while private credit proxies like Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL) Ares Capital (ARCC) and Blue Owl (OWL) have rolled over hard. For most of the last two years they moved broadly together. That divergence is the tell. Were shifting from a rates regime to a credit quality regime. Why private credit is slumping while the S&P rallies Income compression arrives first. BDCs and direct lending funds boomed in higher for longer: floating rate loans reset up quickly while much"
X Link 2025-10-25T20:08Z 72.3K followers, 11.9K engagements
"What about all the other banks that did business with Epstein like Deutsche Bank Bank Of America Bank of New York Melon HSBC Wells Fargo TD Bank Goldman Sachs Truist Financial Corp. and BNP Paribas Retail investors think this is some David vs Goliath when in reality they are going to get smoked regardless. Why buy MSTR when you can just buy Bitcoin itself https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992938398890217714 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992938398890217714"
X Link 2025-11-24T12:48Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements
"This video was sent to me Im not even sure who made it but the claim is that Trumps new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve order is basically the modern version of the [----] gold play setting up a future revaluation of Bitcoin and gold while the dollar weakens. Im not totally convinced but its an interesting angle. What do you all think"
X Link 2025-12-05T03:41Z 72.3K followers, 130.3K engagements
"That [--] year dividend coverage sounds reassuring but it's all theoretical and hinged on steady fundraising like their latest $748M share raise to shore up cash while halting BTC buys. And sure Bitcoin's long run CAGR looks strong but last year's -6% return doesn't greatly exceed your 11% cost of capital; it's a reminder these numbers flip in down cycles. Yields do matter here as a gut check why cough up triple what Treasuries offer if not for the crypto rollercoaster BTC's only brushed a recession once in 2020's short COVID hit where it cratered 50% before snapping back on a wave of support"
X Link 2026-01-03T01:37Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements
"When Lenders Start Saying No Auto Loans Become an Early Credit Warning When auto loan rejections hit the highest level in more than a decade the headline sounds like consumer stress. But the real signal is credit access tightening not demand disappearing. The New York Feds survey shows rejection rates rising through [----] and into [----] with a spike to 15.2% in October [----] (up from 6.7% in June 2025). And the key historical detail.the previous high was at the start of the series in [----] meaning this is the worst reading in the entire dataset not just a normal cycle move. Why That Matters Now"
X Link 2026-01-25T18:37Z 72.2K followers, 10.1K engagements
"Housing Cracks Dont Start With Prices They Start With Jobs and Confidence During the GFC December was often when that stress first became visible in contracts. In December [----] pending home sales were already down roughly 24% from the prior year a clear signal that closings were about to weaken further. That wasnt random timing. The recession officially began that same month layoffs were rising credit conditions were tightening and buyers started worrying that the price they agreed to today might look expensive a few months later if their job or income wasnt secure. Contracts didnt fail"
X Link 2026-01-26T19:53Z 72.2K followers, 12.9K engagements
"Peter Schiff argues that Bitcoin isnt real money because it lacks intrinsic value is highly volatile and depends more on speculation than stability. From his perspective that makes it unsuitable as a central bank reserve asset especially compared with gold. He points to the fact that central banks continue to accumulate gold while virtually none hold Bitcoin (with El Salvador as the lone exception) as evidence that institutions still trust gold.not crypto when it comes to preserving monetary credibility and long term stability. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015952002984075304"
X Link 2026-01-27T00:56Z 72.2K followers, 26.3K engagements
"We are speaking of a fiscal crisis at a scale greater than the Great Recession This is will be every major city across the countrycommercial real estate values have collapsed and tax revenues alongside with them. If you think the increase in property taxes this year was bad you havent seen anything yet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016667567205863928 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016667567205863928"
X Link 2026-01-29T00:19Z 72.2K followers, 48.5K engagements
"Productivity and Costs Q3 [----] And Why A Great Headline Masks Late Cycle Fragility The BLS report shows nonfarm productivity up 4.9% in Q3 driven by output up 5.4% while hours worked rose just 0.5%. Year over year productivity is up 1.9% with output up 2.8% and hours up 0.9%. Unit labor costs fell 1.9% since wages rose 2.9% but productivity rose faster. Real hourly pay actually fell 0.2% in the quarter and is up only 0.3% over the past year. Those are the facts. The leap people make is treating this as clean non inflationary growth. Thats where the story starts to wobble.because the"
X Link 2026-01-29T15:46Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Chinas Deflation Is a Signal Not an Exception Its easy to look at Chinas deflation streak and treat it like a local problem.weak demand here excess capacity there. But the deeper message is about nominal gravity. China isnt just growing more slowly; its producing output without generating enough pricing power to support incomes profits and debt. And that distinction matters far more than whether CPI is slightly positive or negative. When the GDP deflator stays below zero it means the economy can keep moving in real terms while getting poorer in nominal ones. Wages lag. Profits compress. Tax"
X Link 2026-01-29T19:33Z 72.2K followers, 17.9K engagements
"These IPOs Arent About Markets Theyre About National Security Architecture This looks like a standard tech and markets story. Big IPOs. Trillion dollar valuations. SpaceX OpenAI Anthropic. Maybe even a mega merger tying SpaceX to Tesla and xAI. The easy takeaway is familiar.visionary founders breakthrough products capital finally catching up to innovation. That framing is comfortable. Its also incomplete. Whats Actually Being Priced These companies arent being valued just for products or future cash flows. Theyre being valued because they now sit close to the core of U.S. national security"
X Link 2026-01-30T02:48Z 72.2K followers, 30.5K engagements
"Kevin Warsh has a surprisingly thoughtful take on Bitcoin in this clip. He doesnt frame it as a threat or a replacement for the dollar but as a signal policymakers should actually pay attention to. Its a lot more nuanced than the usual talking points and worth hearing in his own words https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017392651033571787 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017392651033571787"
X Link 2026-01-31T00:21Z 72.2K followers, 31.6K engagements
"Did MSCI effectively throw MicroStrategy a lifeline by confirming its continued inclusion in the Global Investable Market Indexes despite its massive Bitcoin exposure and in doing so avoid a forced cascade of passive selling that could have cratered the stock triggered margin stress on its leveraged balance sheet and potentially spilled into a broader BTC liquidation cycle In other words was this simply a neutral methodology clarification or a quiet decision that bought time for the ultimate Bitcoin proxy to survive dilution refinancing or a hoped for BTC rebound while kicking a much larger"
X Link 2026-01-31T23:34Z 72.2K followers, 24.6K engagements
"This is scary because it hints the old China playbook is breaking. For more than two decades the global economy ran on a simple loop where China built relentlessly China absorbed commodities the rest of the world sold into that demand and everyone agreed not to ask too many questions about the debt as long as the cranes stayed in the air. When fixed investment growth drops below zero its not just a bad print. Its a signal that the engine powering that loop is losing torque. This isnt a normal slowdown. Its a transition problem. Whats actually breaking under the hood This isnt China stopped"
X Link 2026-02-01T01:05Z 72.2K followers, 91K engagements
"Why Deflation Is the Bigger Risk Than the Market Realizes The Truflation chart that Cathie Wood is highlighting is a signal that a different inflation regime may already be forming one that most investors are not positioned to recognize because theyre still anchored to official CPI narratives and backward looking assumptions. At face value Truflation showing consumer inflation around 0.86% year over year looks like a mild divergence from official data. But that framing misses what actually matters. The importance is what kind of inflation is collapsing how fast and what that implies for real"
X Link 2026-02-02T14:02Z 72.2K followers, 33.5K engagements
"The Metals Didnt Recover They Revealed the Game When gold and silver collapse intraday and then rip higher to erase most of the losses the easy explanation is that buyers stepped in. The more accurate one is that this was a leverage purge colliding with a structural price insensitive bid. The V shaped reversal is a signature of a market now driven by plumbing collateral and forced flows rather than clean linear fundamentals. What The Charts Are Actually Saying Both metals followed the same script with a hard flush a liquidity vacuum then a persistent bid that pushed price back toward the"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:39Z 72.2K followers, 99.4K engagements
"The January PMI Bounce Isnt a Green Light Its a Stress Signal in Disguise The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to [----] in January [----] marking the first expansion reading after a year of contraction. On the surface that looks like a clean turn in the manufacturing cycle. New Orders surged to [----] Production rose to [----] and Backlogs moved back into expansion. Markets and headlines quickly framed this as evidence that U.S. manufacturing is back. That conclusion is premature. This report coincides with ISMs annual seasonal adjustment revisions which mechanically amplify month to month moves"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:56Z 72.2K followers, 59K engagements
"Today Donald J. Trump announced what he described as a major trade agreement with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The U.S. tariffs on Indian goods would fall from 25% to 18% India would move toward eliminating tariffs and non tariff barriers on U.S. products and New Delhi would commit to purchasing more than $500 billion in U.S. energy technology agricultural goods and coal. Most notably Trump said India agreed to stop buying Russian oil. Publicly the deal was framed as a reciprocal trade win and a geopolitical step toward ending the war in Ukraine by cutting off a key revenue stream for"
X Link 2026-02-02T18:19Z 72.2K followers, 17.9K engagements
"Is Vanguards Fee Cuts Crisis Prep Disguised as Generosity Vanguards decision to slash fees on [--] U.S. funds and cutting costs across [--] share classes by about 27% and pushing the firm wide average down to 0.06% has been sold as a simple extension of its low cost DNA. Scale gets bigger fees go lower clients win. That story isnt wrong but its incomplete. Look at it through a crisis prep lens and the move starts to feel less like routine generosity and more like strategic positioning ahead of a shakier market regime. The timing matters. These cuts were rolled out immediately not eased in over"
X Link 2026-02-02T19:40Z 72.2K followers, 13.3K engagements
"This chart from BlackRock shows listed infrastructure equities trading at nearly a 20% discount to their long term average relative to MSCI World on EV/EBITDA levels below the Global Financial Crisis and comparable to the COVID shock. At first glance you would think infrastructure is historically cheap and ripe for mean reversion. That conclusion is too simple and likely wrong. What The Chart Actually Measures The data shows relative valuation not absolute cheapness. Infrastructure isnt being judged in isolation; its being priced against global equities which have been heavily skewed by a"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:46Z 72.2K followers, 15.5K engagements
"The End of the Bond Backstop And Why the U.S. [--] Year Is the Markets Real Stress Test For four decades falling yields acted as a universal shock absorber. When growth slowed or risk rose bonds rallied stabilizing portfolios credit housing and fiscal dynamics. That relationship is now under strain. What the Chart Is Actually Saying The chart marks two critical eras Early 1980s: the start of a multi decade disinflationary regime driven by Volcker-era credibility globalization favorable demographics and technology. In this world yields trended lower almost by default. Post 2020: the end of that"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:52Z 72.2K followers, 26K engagements
"Once you account for the recurring liquidity squeeze that shows up ahead of tax season when billions are pulled out to meet obligations and crowded trades get caught flat footed its difficult to argue that any rally before April is more than hopeful optimism. JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $73000 $285000000 liquidated from the crypto market in the past [--] minutes. https://t.co/bSyfCpyOHF JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $73000 $285000000 liquidated from the crypto market in the past [--] minutes. https://t.co/bSyfCpyOHF"
X Link 2026-02-03T19:48Z 72.2K followers, 31.1K engagements
"This chart tracks the [--] year minus [--] month Treasury spread alongside the [--] month bill rate and it highlights the pattern most investors recognize where the curve inverts then later un-inverts (re-steepens) and major drawdowns have often followed (2000 [----] 2020). The pattern is real enough to respect but the usual interpretation is backwards. The yield curve isnt a prophecy machine. Its a pressure gauge for monetary and credit conditions and the timing of that pressure matters. What Inversion Really Means An inversion is what happens when the front end gets pushed high enough that funding"
X Link 2026-02-04T12:47Z 72.3K followers, 26.6K engagements
"In [----] about 70% of active real estate agents reportedly closed zero transactions versus a historical baseline around 49% selling one or no homes.roughly a 22% jump. That kind of turnover collapse is what historically shows up ahead of major industry shakeouts (think post [----] and the early 1980s rate shock) prices can stay sticky but volume dries up and most agents get squeezed out. Over 70% of licensed Realtors didnt sell a single home last year per NAR Over 70% of licensed Realtors didnt sell a single home last year per NAR"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:38Z 72.2K followers, 12.1K engagements
"ADP Shows Growth Until You Remove Health Care ADP says private employers added [-----] jobs in January. That sounds like things are still growing if you only read the headline. But the internals read like a labor market thats thinning not expanding and where one defensive sector is doing almost all the work while the cyclical economy quietly rolls over. ADP even flags the trend that job creation took a step back in [----] with [------] private jobs added versus [------] in [----] describing a continuous and dramatic slowdown over the last three years. Thats not a one month wobble. Its a regime shift."
X Link 2026-02-04T14:50Z 72.2K followers, 13K engagements
"@BitcoinPoke Deflation. Unemployment will keep rising from here. Unemployment and GDP is distorted. And the lag between when that liquidity makes its way into risk on assets like Bitcoin etc. will take longer than people think in a severe recession"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:22Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements
"What Michael Burry Is Really Pointing At This post is a warning about where we are in the liquidity cycle and how markets tend to misread this phase. The Pattern Hes Highlighting The two red arrows arent marking bottoms. Theyre marking the same psychological point in two cycles.the moment after a major peak where price has already fallen a lot confidence is shaken but leverage and positioning havent fully cleared. In the prior cycle that zone came before the deeper liquidation leg. Burry is suggesting the current setup may be rhyming with that same false resolution phase. Why the Drawdown"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:19Z 72.2K followers, 21.8K engagements
"Unless of course unemployment continues to rise. Which it will. And then people dont have a choice if they have to meet their debt obligations. If you have a secure job you can ride out a deflationary bust. If you dont then you liquidate everything just to survive. Going to get worse"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:38Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Challenger Job Cuts Surge But the Bigger Tell Is Hiring Just Collapsed The Challenger report for January [----] is showing that corporate confidence is slipping and its showing up first in hiring intent not just layoffs. U.S. based employers announced [------] job cuts in January up 205% from December and up 118% year over year making it the highest January total since [----] (when [------] cuts were announced). Importantly Challenger notes many of these decisions were set late in [----] with Andy Challenger stating they reflect employers who are less than optimistic about the outlook for [----]. Where"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:37Z 72.2K followers, 11.1K engagements
"JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $66000. https://t.co/yc7PmdLyot JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $66000. https://t.co/yc7PmdLyot"
X Link 2026-02-05T19:15Z 72.3K followers, 17.9K engagements
"Scott Bessent is describing economic warfare with what they did to Iran. By constraining access to dollar channels pressure built inside the banking system forced bad policy choices weakened the currency and pushed inflation into everyday life"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:48Z 72.3K followers, 26.5K engagements
"@E055Michel1842 And they will do this globally even at the expense of the U.S. economy just to leverage themselves into the front seat of the table of the New World Order"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:12Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Everythings fine 🫠 FOX: " Rent Now Pay Later. It's a new option for renters who are struggling to make the monthly payment . You pay them a fee or a monthly subscription but if you miss the payments that's when the interest rates go way up." https://t.co/Vn2dMxoi3V FOX: " Rent Now Pay Later. It's a new option for renters who are struggling to make the monthly payment . You pay them a fee or a monthly subscription but if you miss the payments that's when the interest rates go way up." https://t.co/Vn2dMxoi3V"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:14Z 72.2K followers, 15.2K engagements
"This looks less like a durable trend change and more like a reflexive bounce inside a broader drawdown. The backdrop still points to a macro driven crypto winter with recession anxiety ETF outflows and a shift in institutional attention toward assets with clearer cash flow or policy tailwinds like gold or AI linked equities(for now). The larger players appear defensive miners and levered holders selling to manage balance sheets while longer horizon capital selectively accumulates weakness rather than chasing strength. Until theres real macro clarity these moves feel more like positioning and"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:59Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements
"China doesnt need every mortgage to go unpaid for the old loop to break. Property was the collateral base the household wealth engine and the local government revenue machine. When land sales can go from funding a huge chunk of local budgets to being down roughly 65% from the [----] peak you get a fiscal hole weaker confidence and slower credit transmission even if Tier [--] ratios look fine on paper. And the shift was intentional doesnt make it painless or self funding. You can redirect credit into EVs and advanced manufacturing but that doesnt replace a broad household wealth effect. So the"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:50Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Productivity deflation is great when it comes with strong demand rising real incomes and healthy corporate margins. What Chinas been living through looks different where factory gate prices have been negative for years while the trade surplus hits records. Thats not a consumer dividend thats excess capacity clearing at thin margins and pushing the pressure outward. Local governments didnt just switch from land sales to taxes like flipping a switch. Land sales were the flexible cash machine and by many estimates they funded a huge share of local budgets. If land sales are down roughly 65"
X Link 2026-02-07T00:16Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements
"What keeps me from the clean bullish macro read is the labor and consumer tape around it. ADP showed only [-----] private jobs added in January and the headline was basically held up by Education and Health Services (+74000) while Professional and Business Services (-57000) and Manufacturing (-8000) were down meaning outside that one big category the private sector wouldve been negative. Challenger then reported [------] announced job cuts in January (highest January since 2009) and hiring plans collapsing to [----]. On the consumer side delinquency stress is rising too with roughly 5% of auto"
X Link 2026-02-07T01:18Z 72.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@TravelingJagrs @FreightAlley (1) Stock market isnt the real economy"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:36Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@TravelingJagrs @FreightAlley Random data 🤣 okaywhat happens to tax revenues for cities and towns across the country when their tax revenues because commercial real estate values have collapsed Wake up buddy"
X Link 2026-02-07T19:26Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@TravelingJagrs @great_martis Yes. I am thinking out loud here.and feel free to respond. Is it possible the Fed pauses or slows the pace of rate cuts while effectively waiting for an external catalyst to do the work for themlike a global risk off episode another major economy breaking first or a credit https://t.co/1VJtZsv6uy I am thinking out loud here.and feel free to respond. Is it possible the Fed pauses or slows the pace of rate cuts while effectively waiting for an external catalyst to do the work for themlike a global risk off episode another major economy breaking first or a credit"
X Link 2026-02-07T22:14Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@TravelingJagrs @great_martis Deflationiscoming"
X Link 2026-02-07T22:15Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements
"A big TGA number sounds supportive but in practice it often means the opposite. That cash is sitting at the Fed not circulating through banks or markets. Until Treasury actually spends it in excess of issuance its a reserve drain not a boost. And heading into tax season the usual pattern is to keep the cash balance high and then see receipts push it even higher in April. Even if policymakers want to protect asset prices plumbing support doesnt magically fix the real economy. Rate cuts bill purchases or reserve tweaks help keep funding markets orderly but they dont stop refinancing stress"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:03Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements
"You are underestimating the lag. Liquidity moves and rate cuts dont show up in the real economy in weeks or even a quarter historically its closer to [----] months before you see a clean impact on hiring capex and household balance sheets. What theyre doing now mostly stabilizes the plumbing and asset prices; it doesnt undo the damage thats already been set in motion by two years of tight financial conditions. Thats why the timing matters. Even if the TGA is eventually drawn down or the Fed eases further it wont stop the [----] maturity wall rising delinquencies CRE stress or margin compression"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:06Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements
"I focus on main street because thats where stress shows up first and thats what eventually forces earnings and credit to reprice. Stocks can stay elevated deep into deterioration because the index is held up by liquidity buybacks passive flows and a handful of mega caps while the pain concentrates everywhere else. The market isnt trading todays economy its trading an earnings story that hasnt been marked down yet which is why it can look fine right up until margins crack and revisions hit. The official recession call is almost never the starter gun. NBER dates recessions after the fact"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:08Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@TOzgokmen @DA_Sully Any thoughts on this I personally think capacity finally got flushed and the survivors are just setting the price"
X Link 2026-02-09T11:44Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@grok @FreightAlley @grok What would flip it the other way and what economic variables and indicators across the broader economy would reaffirm softening volume and weakness Give me the top 5"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:55Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@grok If you take into account and see through the noise of ISM PMI and look into the actual sectors of employment etc. unemployment specifically taking into account birth/death model and U-6 unemployment retail sales when you take into account inflation adjusted and buy now pay later usage and GDP where 18% of GDP is health insurance costs and other similar inputs. And then take account the content with bankruptcies in this screenshot. What would you say with your highest probability conviction is the reason for SONAR recent freight demand resurgence etc"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:02Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@grok why is GDP distorted and unemployment rate distorted and misconstrued when you take into account health care insurance costs into GDP and other inputs like that and also death birth model etc with the unemployment rate What was the U-6 unemployment rate And when you compare and contrast that why is there such a divergence https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020956017572413834 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020956017572413834"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:20Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@grok How many Chapter [--] and Sub V bankruptcy filings has there been since [----] combined And considering prior to [----] Chapter [--] filings included Sub V filingstake the combined Chapter [--] and Sub V filings since Jan [----] until today and compare them to any year during great financial crisis and what year is the most similar What is the delinquency rate on auto loans and credit cards What is the vacancy rate of commercial real estate and office space commercial real estate and how does that affect municipality tax revenues And considering a formal recession hasnt been declared when you put"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:32Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@grok @fejau_inc @BenKizemchuk @grok Lets assume truflation is a better indicator of inflation. How would that change your opinion And how can the current tariffs cause a kindleberger spiral And what happens to deflation in that scenario"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:47Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@grok Is China in a deflationary spiral and trying to export their way out of deflation And doesnt that export deflation to the rest of the world who they export to When you combine that with the tariffs as well how bad could this get of truflation is the true economic indicator of inflation https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020963546109194510 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020963546109194510"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:50Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@grok With your highest probability conviction if everything I said is accurate and truflation is the better indicator of inflation expectations how bad could this recession get if the Fed doesnt cut rates soon enough and are once again reactive rather than proactive especially since we are starting off worse that GFC"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:54Z 72.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@grok How many major cities in the U.S. are in a budget deficit and by how much due to commercial values collapsing And give me the top [--] largest cities in the U.S. that is going through this and tell me how bad their budget deficit is in historical context and adjust for inflation. And how would they likely try and get out of that deficit by doing what And what impact will that have on the economy https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020965333625155824 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020965333625155824"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:57Z 72.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Hiring Freezes First. Layoffs Later. This Chart Is the First Step This is Challenger Gray & Christmas announced job cuts shown with a six month average to smooth the monthly noise. Its forward looking.what companies plan to do not a direct count of layoffs already hitting payrolls. Think of it as executive intent and not the full damage yet. Planned Cuts Jumped Hard Employers announced [------] job cuts in January [----] the highest January total since [----]. Zoom out and it gets louder.2025 announced cuts totaled [-------] one of the highest annual totals theyve recorded and notably close to 2008s"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:14Z 72.3K followers, 18.5K engagements
"RT @TOzgokmen: THE ART OF WAR: Joke aside investment is about strategy. It is just like chess or war. One move is made in response to ano"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:20Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: What the January Jobs Report Doesnt Want You to Notice At first glance this looks calm with payrolls up [------] and"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:54Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: This is the BLS basically admitting the economy was weaker than the monthly tape made it look and a lot of resilient"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:54Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: When credit card balances that are 90+ days delinquent climb back toward GFC territory (12.7% now vs 13.7% in 2009) t"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:54Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: When health care and social assistance are more than [---] percent of the [--] month gain in private payrolls it means ev"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:55Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: The math is getting less insane because the market is being forced to adjust but a lot of that adjustment is happenin"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:55Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: This chart sounds bullish but its a little deceptive because its pulling from the household survey not the payroll"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:55Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: What this chart clearly shows is that the previously published payroll story was too rosy and the current with revisi"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:55Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: This is the housing system moving from an artificially suppressed foreclosure regime back toward reality and then over"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:55Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: Zondas lot index rises when the stock of finished lots is growing or when the pace of starts slows and lots stop gett"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:25Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: Losing 229k people to domestic migration in [----] is an improvement from the [------] trough but its still a big net o"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:25Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"RT @onechancefreedm: Hankes right that money matters but China isnt living in a textbook where you dial M2 up and CPI obediently follows"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:25Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Heres what COULD be happening beneath the surface: were witnessing a coordinated pause by the Fed and Treasury not out of strength or stability but as a last-ditch effort to stall systemic collapse while they prepare the architecture for a new monetary regime. The plumbing of the global dollar system is breaking down basis trades are unraveling swap spreads are collapsing into negative territory SOFR-Fed Funds spreads are inverted and long-end Treasuries are being sold into weakness not bought. And yet the Fed isnt stepping in. Thats not because things are fine its because they cant move"
X Link 2025-04-09T04:00Z 72.3K followers, 110.9K engagements
"We suffer more in imagination than in reality. - Seneca Senecas words cut straight to the core of modern life. Most people are not undone by real hardship but by the endless loops of imagined pain they play in their own minds. We relive mistakes that no longer exist invent problems that havent arrived and interpret silence as judgment. The mind becomes its own tormentor creating storms that reality never brings. Every anxious thought every what if every mental rehearsal of disaster drains energy that could be spent actually living growing or creating. This is what makes Senecas insight so"
X Link 2025-10-11T03:28Z 72.3K followers, 25.2K engagements
"Bitcoin Is Screaming And M2 Velocity Is Whispering Something Else A taker buy/sell ratio around [----] basically means the aggressive side of the market is hitting buy. On the surface that looks powerful. But this ratio tends to spike when positioning is already crowded. It measures urgency not depth. And in crypto urgency is usually leveragenot slow steady accumulation. It feels bullish. But these are exactly the kinds of readings that show up when a market is stretched not necessarily when its healthy. And then theres M2 velocity which tells a very different story Let me explain M2 velocity."
X Link 2025-12-03T23:28Z 72.3K followers, 33.4K engagements
"Jeffrey Epstein gives a surprisingly clear breakdown of how fractional reserve banking actually works. Worth the watch"
X Link 2026-02-03T01:31Z 72.3K followers, 24.3K engagements
"The Pending Home Sales Index (contract signings) is sitting near the lows of the entire [--------] history. The annotation says pending sales are roughly 27% below normal. But the real tell is the duration. After [----] the line stays pinned. Thats a market struggling to clear. What Pending Sales Really Measure Pending home sales are the earliest clean read on real housing demand because they capture the moment a buyer and seller commit. They lead closings they lead mortgage originations and they lead a long chain of downstream economic activity. When this collapses it means the housing market is"
X Link 2026-02-04T01:31Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Ray Dalio is basically saying that you shouldnt fixate on the dollar. The same debt trap is spreading across every major fiat system so the escape valve cant be another paper currency. Thats why central banks keep reaching for gold. Its the one monetary asset that isnt someone elses liability and cant be printed https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018883143374131280 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018883143374131280"
X Link 2026-02-04T03:03Z 72.3K followers, 49.2K engagements
"ISM Services PMI Report: Expansion on Paper Erosion in the Pipeline The January ISM Services PMI prints [----] still expansion and unchanged from December. But the crime scene detail isnt the headline; its the internals. Several forward looking components that usually crack before the headline PMI do are already in contraction Backlog of Orders (44.0) for the 11th straight month New Export Orders (45.0) after a sharp drop Imports (48.2) and Inventories (45.1). That combination is the classic setup for activity looks fineuntil it suddenly doesnt. Why the Headline Can Lie The Services PMI is a"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:56Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@BitcoinPoke Way more downside to go"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:25Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements
"Lower. JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $71000 80% chance it drops below $60000 https://t.co/fiFpAyfqNB JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $71000 80% chance it drops below $60000 https://t.co/fiFpAyfqNB"
X Link 2026-02-05T11:51Z 72.3K followers, 13.9K engagements
"You would think that until something actually breaks. Then the world runs to the dollar for liquidity. The dollar is still 8890% of all FX transactions 50% of global payments 54% of trade invoicing and 5758% of global FX reserves. Dollar debt swaps and collateral are everywhere. When volatility spikes everyone needs USD at the same time to settle and post margin. Thats why in real crises the dollar squeezes higher. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019468595043135981 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019468595043135981"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:50Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements
"The Labor Market Flip And Why This Chart Matters More Than People Think The headline everyone sees As of December [----] BLS shows job openings at 6.542M while unemployed persons are 7.503M a gap of roughly 961k. Thats a regime change in simple terms that the worker shortage era is over. What the crowd is missing This is a vacancy collapse while the labor market still looks stable because layoffs havent surged. In the JOLTS report openings fell -386k in the month and -966k over the year while hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3M each. That combination screams freeze not"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:30Z 72.3K followers, 13K engagements
"Takaichis Supermajority A Deterrence Windfall for the U.S. And A Global Bond Market Risk Japans snap election landslide gives Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi something Japan rarely hands any leader.a governing mandate with real legislative leverage. Most peoples first instinct is to treat this as a straightforward Japan goes hawkish U.S. wins. Thats only half the story. The other half is the bond market. Takaichis platform mixes security hardening with fiscally expansionary promises that have already aggravated JGB volatility and yen weakness and because Japan sits at the center of global"
X Link 2026-02-08T21:20Z 72.3K followers, 22K engagements
"The Rent Print Everyone Is Missing And Why Falling Rents Dont Mean Life Is Cheap Again This chart is a clean signal that the rent shock is over. U.S. market rents (new leases) are down about 1.4% YoY extending a long streak of declines after the pandemic spike. The common mistake is mixing up levels vs direction because rents can still be far above [----] while the marginal price is falling. Thats how inflation regimes turn. Two Housing Markets At Once Renting is a fast market.new supply hits landlords compete concessions show up asking rents move. Buying is a frozen market.high prices and high"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:00Z 72.3K followers, 19.1K engagements
"TRUMP TRADE ADVISER NAVARRO: WE NEED TO REVISE EXPECTATIONS ON MONTHLY JOB NUMBERS TRUMP TRADE ADVISER NAVARRO: WE NEED TO REVISE EXPECTATIONS ON MONTHLY JOB NUMBERS"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:04Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements
"The Swing Producer Is Slipping And Why Falling U.S. Oil Output Changes Everything The deeper signal here is that the U.S. is starting to lose its role as the worlds reliable swing producer. And when the swing producer loses elasticity the global energy and macro game gets more volatile. What The Chart Is Actually Saying A year over year decline can happen for many reasons in weekly data including one off drops tied to weather outages or timing. So the flip itself isnt the whole story. The story is the backdrop that makes a flip possible.lower prices slower drilling and a system optimized for"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:28Z 72.3K followers, 13.2K engagements
"When health care and social assistance are more than [---] percent of the [--] month gain in private payrolls it means everything else is flat or shrinking and theyre offsetting the damage. This is exactly how the headline payroll number can look fine and still be misleading: people see a positive net print and assume broad strength but the breadth is collapsing and the profit sensitive parts of the economy arent doing the hiring. Historically thats late cycle behavior. In both the early 2000s slowdown and the pre GFC period health and education type hiring was among the last to hold up while"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:55Z 72.3K followers, 26.6K engagements
"The math is getting less insane because the market is being forced to adjust but a lot of that adjustment is happening in ways that dont feel good on the ground. The buy versus rent gap is shrinking partly because the ownership side is finally bending (rates and or prices arent rising the way they were) and partly because rent affordability is getting squeezed too. And the overlooked trap is that this uses a clean 30% rule of thumb that ignores the real gatekeepers.down payments credit standards property taxes insurance and the fact that people dont buy houses when theyre worried about job"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:01Z 72.3K followers, 14K engagements
"This chart sounds bullish but its a little deceptive because its pulling from the household survey not the payroll survey. The household survey counts people (including self employed and farm) and full time just means 35+ usual hours it does not mean higher pay better benefits or even that the economy created a bunch of new payroll jobs. January is also a heavy seasonal adjustment month and BLS is literally in the middle of methodological changes and big benchmark rewrites. So treating a one month full time jump like clean signal is exactly how you get fooled at turning points. The bigger"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:08Z 72.3K followers, 12.4K engagements
"What this chart clearly shows is that the previously published payroll story was too rosy and the current with revisions line drags the whole [--------] trend lower. That matters. It means the economy was closer to stall speed for longer than the tape suggested and the market spent a year reacting to a labor market that looked sturdier than what the tax record backfill ultimately supports. I disagree with treating the fact that the revised data makes January look less weak as proof that the economy is stabilizing. The BLS itself basically warns you not to do that. They say the 90% confidence"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:27Z 72.3K followers, 13K engagements
"This is the housing system moving from an artificially suppressed foreclosure regime back toward reality and then overshooting a bit because the underlying household math has gotten worse. Foreclosures didnt improve in 20202022; they were essentially turned off by moratoriums forbearance and procedural guardrails. Once those programs sunsetted the pipeline didnt just restart overnight. It takes time for missed payments to become default for loss mit options to be exhausted and for servicers to actually file. Thats why you get this slow grind higher.Q4 [----] jumps to 58k from 41k in Q4 [----] but"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:35Z 72.3K followers, 20.1K engagements
"@JagerMario The Fed cuts rates because they see things breaking in the economy. Unemployment will continue to go up"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:34Z 72.3K followers, [--] engagements
"I think youre confusing more loans getting done with the market being healthy again. Lending can bounce just because last year was dead and the only stuff trading now is the easy high quality deals that still pencil. Thats just money crowding into the safest parts of CRE. And extensions dont mean lenders feel great about NOI. Extensions usually mean the opposite that the refinance math doesnt work at todays rates so everyone buys time. If things were truly stable youd see clean refis without paydowns extra reserves and tighter terms. What CBRE is signaling is the messy part of the market is"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:08Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements
"Amphenol: The Quiet Backbone of the Modern Economy The Company That Powers Everything At first glance Amphenol ($APH) looks like a typical industrial supplier with connectors cables sensors but those mundane components form the circulatory system of the digital world. Its products are embedded everywhere: in data centers powering AI models electric vehicles aerospace systems 5G infrastructure medical devices and industrial automation. It connects the future. Thats why the companys stock chart looks like a long term structural uptrend rather than a cyclical one. Amphenol has quietly compounded"
X Link 2025-10-24T21:08Z 72.3K followers, 16.1K engagements
"A Financial Head Start or a Financial Capture On the surface Invest America is pitched as a bipartisan effort to give kids a financial head start with tax advantaged accounts from birth a $1000 federal deposit for babies born [--------] and a $6.25B philanthropic boost that seeds [--] million older children with $250. But if you look at it with a skeptical eye its also the creation of a huge new pipeline that pushes families into the financial system from day one. It isnt just about helping kids build wealth its about expanding the base of long duration savers who will automatically be buying"
X Link 2025-12-03T05:19Z 72.3K followers, 264.5K engagements
"Where the Household Debt Stress Is Actually Building The NY Feds Q4 [----] Household Debt report can look fine if you only watch the big total. But the stress isnt in the headline number. Its in the parts of the household budget that get used when people are trying to make it to the next paycheck in things like credit cards autos and the messier to measure.student loans. Start with the big picture (why the headline can fool you) Total household debt rose $191B in Q4 to $18.8T (+1.0% QoQ). Its up $4.6T versus end of [----]. That sounds scary until you remember whats inside the total.mortgages are"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:08Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Americas Copper Pile Is A Policy Driven Market Warp The idea that the U.S. has amassed its largest copper inventory in more than three decades seems like an obvious growth signal where demand must be surging the AI buildout is pulling metal forward and copper is confirming expansion. But when the buildup is concentrated in exchange approved warehouses its often less about real end use demand and more about market structure with tariffs deliverability mechanics regional price premiums and traders repositioning supply ahead of a shifting policy regime. Whats Actually Happening Copper is"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:17Z 72.3K followers, 11.9K engagements
"What the January Jobs Report Doesnt Want You to Notice At first glance this looks calm with payrolls up [------] and unemployment at 4.3%. But if you read it with a more skeptical lens the current month is almost a distraction. The real information is that BLS just rewrote [----] and that should change how much confidence you put in the steady labor market narrative. The Quiet Restatement That Changed The Narrative Buried in the benchmarking section is the March [----] payroll level where it was revised down by [------] (seasonally adjusted) and [------] (not seasonally adjusted) or -0.5%. More"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:35Z 72.3K followers, 28.5K engagements
"Whatever happened to this show"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:46Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements
"(1/2) What Happens If Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz Strategic Context: The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical maritime chokepoint in the world. Roughly 20% of globally traded crude oil and 30% of global LNG shipments transit its narrow waters daily. If Iran were to close or significantly disrupt the Strait via mining anti ship missiles drone swarms or fast-attack naval craft it would initiate not just a regional crisis but a systemic shock to the global economy supply chains and security architecture. First-Order Effects (Immediate Week 1) Energy Spike: Crude oil could surge $30$60 in"
X Link 2025-06-14T01:23Z 72.3K followers, 1.4M engagements
"When Gold Buys This Much Oil the Market Is Bracing for Something This chart is really just asking how much oil can you buy with gold And at about [----] grams per barrel the answer right now is a lot. Thats extreme. Historically you dont see oil this cheap relative to gold unless something is off in the real economy or people are paying up for insurance. Oil is tied to actual demand with shipping travel production. Gold is tied to trust uncertainty and the long arc of policy. When gold buys this much oil the market is leaning toward protection over growth. Look at the past troughs and the"
X Link 2025-12-19T20:11Z 72.3K followers, 161.5K engagements
"When credit card balances that are 90+ days delinquent climb back toward GFC territory (12.7% now vs 13.7% in 2009) thats a cash flow story. Credit cards are the most immediate stress gauge in the system because theyre unsecured floating rate and theyre what people lean on when wages dont cover the month. Historically you see this pattern before the economy feels like a recession in the headlines.2001 had a milder spike [------] was the big one. The common thread is the same that once delinquency gets this high lenders stop pretending its idiosyncratic and start treating it as systemic and they"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:49Z 72.3K followers, 28.6K engagements
"This move by China is about monetary control in a tightening environment. Unapproved yuan linked stablecoins create a parallel financial rail Beijing doesnt fully command one that can quietly bypass capital controls weaken oversight of cross border flows and erode the central banks grip on liquidity. In a system already sensitive to capital flight and confidence shocks thats an unacceptable loss of control. More subtly this is also defensive geopolitics. Private stablecoins especially those operating offshore complicate Chinas long term strategy to channel digital payments through state"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:14Z 72.3K followers, 13.2K engagements
"Commercial Real Estate Values 📉 City and Town in U.S. Tax Revenues 📉 Residential Property Taxes 📈 BREAKING: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices jumped +103 basis points in January to a record 12.3%. This surpasses the post-2008 Financial Crisis peak by [---] percentage points. The CMBS delinquency rate has soared +600% over the https://t.co/VUZohI5gYK BREAKING: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices jumped +103 basis points in January to a record 12.3%. This surpasses the post-2008 Financial Crisis peak by"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:43Z 72.3K followers, 11.8K engagements
"@grok @fejau_inc @BenKizemchuk @grok So you are telling me that its a 100% chance more or less that there will be a big correction"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:16Z 72.3K followers, [---] engagements
"Why I Think Michael Burry Is Shutting Down Scion Now Lets put a few things togetherBurrys liquidation letter his depreciation thread on the hyperscalers and his me then me now Big Short meme and hes basically spelling out one story. He thinks were in an earnings inflated AI driven bubble that a value investor cant sit inside without eventually getting crushed. In the letter he says it plainly My estimation of value in securities is not now and has not been for some time in sync with the markets. Thats not a Im tired of running money line. Thats a man saying I cant reconcile what I see in the"
X Link 2025-11-13T04:16Z 72.3K followers, 2.3M engagements
"This is the BLS basically admitting the economy was weaker than the monthly tape made it look and a lot of resilient labor narratives were leaning on payrolls that didnt really exist once the tax records came in. Revisions like that usually happen when business births were overstated deaths were understated or the mix shifted in ways the monthly survey cant catch which is exactly what you see when a cycle rolls over quietly before the headlines change. The overlooked part is timing. Markets and policymakers trade the monthly prints like theyre the present but benchmarks are the past finally"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:44Z 72.3K followers, 13.5K engagements
"Zondas lot index rises when the stock of finished lots is growing or when the pace of starts slows and lots stop getting absorbed. That second part is the tell. Builders dont pull back on starts because theyre euphoric. They pull back because traffic is choppy incentives are doing the heavy lifting and the buyer who would have cleared inventory at 3% mortgages isnt there at todays payment. So the index moving back toward slightly undersupplied is less about a supply boom and more about the market shifting from supply constrained to demand constrained at the margin. The overlooked signal is"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:05Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Hankes right that money matters but China isnt living in a textbook where you dial M2 up and CPI obediently follows. The problem isnt just the quantity of money its the willingness to use it. When property is broken and confidence is shot households save firms dont invest banks roll bad loans instead of making new ones and velocity collapses. In that world you can have healthy M2 growth and still get near zero inflation because the money is trapped in the system not chasing goods and wages. This is more a broken transmission story. China is flirting with Japan style dynamics with deflation"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:39Z 72.3K followers, 14.1K engagements
"The China Deflation Chart That Explains Everything That chart is a warning that Chinas core problem is nominal income. The GDP deflator is the economy wide price level inside GDP and the gap between nominal growth and real growth. When it stays negative for a long stretch you can still post real growth but the cash flows that actually service debt support profits and fund government budgets dont keep up. Thats why GDP deflator deflation is so corrosive because it quietly turns a slowdown into a balance sheet problem. The chart is basically saying China doesnt have the freedom to slam the"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:29Z 72.3K followers, 12.5K engagements
"The [--] Year Is The Feds Lie Detector If you want to know what the bond market actually believes watch the [--] year. Its not a crystal ball but its where traders express the cleanest what does the Fed do next view. It reacts fast when growth cools inflation fades or the market starts sensing the Fed will eventually blink. And right now its blinking. What Its Saying In Plain English The Fed is holding policy around 3.53.75 after cutting a few times late last year then pausing to assess. Meanwhile the [--] year is down around [---] below the policy band. That gap is the market quietly telling you it"
X Link 2026-02-15T20:12Z 72.3K followers, 28.5K engagements
"Three Quiet Charts That Say More About the U.S. Economy Than the Headlines Most macro debates get trapped in the loud stuff.one jobs print one inflation print one Fed quote. These three charts are quieter but theyre the kind of quiet that tends to matter. Together theyre pointing to the same late cycle story that the labor market is less solid than it looks job growth is getting more defensive and the Treasury market is leaning harder on intermediaries to digest supply. The Jobs Story Gets Rewritten After The Fact The first chart is the annual benchmark revision to Nonfarm Payrolls. Its a"
X Link 2026-02-15T20:56Z 72.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Why I Think Michael Burry Is Shutting Down Scion Now Lets put a few things togetherBurrys liquidation letter his depreciation thread on the hyperscalers and his me then me now Big Short meme and hes basically spelling out one story. He thinks were in an earnings inflated AI driven bubble that a value investor cant sit inside without eventually getting crushed. In the letter he says it plainly My estimation of value in securities is not now and has not been for some time in sync with the markets. Thats not a Im tired of running money line. Thats a man saying I cant reconcile what I see in the"
X Link 2025-11-13T04:16Z 72.3K followers, 2.3M engagements
"Lumber is one of the most sensitive barometers of future demand because it ties directly into housing construction and credit. When it rolls over this hard it often means something deeper: builders pulling back financing tightening and consumers hesitating on big-ticket commitments. Weve seen this before. In [------] lumber collapsed long before the housing bust became obvious. In [------] lumbers spike and crash captured the whiplash of pandemic stimulus meeting Fed tightening. Todays drop back under $600 is telling us not just about oversupply but about fading demand in an economy where"
X Link 2025-08-18T18:58Z 72.3K followers, 1M engagements
"BREAKING 🚨: Lumber Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 📉📉"
X Link 2025-08-18T18:34Z 478.5K followers, 1.1M engagements
"This is one of the clearest signals yet that the Bank of Japan has lost control of the long end of the curve. Japans 30-year yield hitting 2.845% its highest since [----] isnt just a local event. This has global knock-on effects: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries and a key player in the global carry trade. Rising JGB yields force Japanese institutions to repatriate capital unwind overseas positions and pull back on USD asset exposure adding pressure to U.S. yields and FX volatility. This spike also signals the end of the deflationary regime that underpinned global risk"
X Link 2025-04-14T17:20Z 72.3K followers, 1.1M engagements
"Imagine loading up on risk at SPX [----] with 1% GDP growth negative earnings growth and 5% inflation next quarter"
X Link 2025-04-14T17:12Z 138.6K followers, 992.3K engagements
"Monroe Doctrine 2.0: Why Venezuela Guyana and Colombia suddenly matter a lot Strip away the rhetoric and Washingtons fixation on the northern rim of South America is about two things: who controls the hemispheres next decade of oil flows and who controls the chokepoints and minerals that power modern industry. Venezuela holds the worlds largest crude reserves with heavy barrels tailor made for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Guyana has become one of the fastest growing oil provinces on earth anchored by a U.S. operator. Layer onto that the scramble for rare earths and magnet materials and"
X Link 2025-10-19T21:36Z 72.3K followers, 373.7K engagements
"The Bessent Signal: Why This Isnt Just a Routine Update Scott Bessent now acting as U.S. Treasury Secretary announcing a speech on the state of the financial system tomorrow at 10:00am. This is at a time when swap spreads are imploding gold is soaring FX vol is flashing red and T-bill auction demand is shifting from foreign to domestic fallback buyers (MMFs Berkshire Fed rollovers) is not a coincidence. This isnt just a check-in. Its a signal. Heres the case: Timing is everything. His speech comes the morning after coordinated FX anomalies (see USDEUR*USDILS) UVIX/SVIX divergence manipulation"
X Link 2025-04-22T19:44Z 72.3K followers, 537.1K engagements
"Gold is breaking through its inflation adjusted peak from [----] a level that stood untouched for [--] years. Moves of this magnitude dont happen in quiet times. They usually mean the market is sending a signal that confidence in the existing monetary framework is eroding. Back in [----] gold exploded higher after the U.S. left the gold standard inflation ran hot and trust in paper assets collapsed. Todays rally rhymes with that history but the drivers are different. This time its a toxic mix of ballooning U.S. debt and deficits questions around Fed credibility geopolitical fractures and record"
X Link 2025-09-09T02:40Z 72.3K followers, 272.9K engagements
"Gold has finally taken out its 45-year inflation adjusted record high 🚨 Congrats everyone we did it 🥳🤑🫂"
X Link 2025-09-08T23:08Z 478.5K followers, 593.9K engagements
"What were witnessing tonight isnt the birth of a bull market its a mirage formed by narrative whiplash and liquidity exhaustion. The spike in futures following Trumps comments is less about policy and more about psychological relief. Markets are starved for any catalyst that offers a pathway out of the tightening vise of global funding stress swap spread inversions and deflationary positioning. But this is not structural its reactive. When you peel back the surface the macro plumbing tells a very different story. SOFR stress is still rising. 3-year swap spreads are negative. USD/JPY continues"
X Link 2025-04-23T00:28Z 72.3K followers, 536.1K engagements
"BREAKING: US stock market futures surge at the [--] PM ET open on Trumps comments"
X Link 2025-04-22T22:01Z 1.4M followers, 703.4K engagements
"Argentina is one of the worlds largest holders of lithium copper and rare earth minerals critical materials for electric vehicles semiconductors and defense systems. Whoever secures Argentinas mineral trade secures leverage in the clean energy and tech future. By setting up a $20 billion currency swap and buying pesos the U.S. is quietly reasserting dollar control in a region where China has made serious inroads through yuan swap lines and mining partnerships. Argentina has been drifting toward the yuan for trade settlements. This deal pulls it back into the dollar system. This also lets the"
X Link 2025-10-10T03:51Z 72.3K followers, 329.5K engagements
"Ingraham: U.S. Treasury finalized $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina What do we get out of it Bessent: We get a lot out of it he is committed to getting China out of Argentina Ingraham: Its not a bailout Bessent: Not a bailout at all buy low sell high. The Argentine peso is undervalued"
X Link 2025-10-09T23:19Z 714.7K followers, 1.4M engagements
"If current trends continue we are likely [--] to [--] months away from the full onset of the largest global easing cycle in modern financial history and we may already be in the early stages of it. The seeds are being sown by a toxic convergence: weakening global demand rising sovereign debt servicing costs trade war escalation and rapidly deteriorating Treasury auctions (evidenced by tail size and poor bid-to-covers). Central banks particularly the Fed are boxed in by structurally high deficits and a politically untenable cost of capital. As growth slows under the weight of tariffs and tighter"
X Link 2025-04-08T17:25Z 72.3K followers, 196.4K engagements
"Japan Is the Fuse. The U.S. Is the Bomb. The cracks in global bond markets just turned into fractures. Japans 20-year government bond (JGB) auction was the worst since [----]. Bid-to-cover ratios collapsed. Yields on the 30-year spiked to 3.12% and the 40-year hit an all-time record. This isnt a one-off technical failure its the first sovereign domino tipping over in a structure thats held the global system together for decades. Heres what most dont see: Japans bond market isnt isolated. Its the keystone of global yield suppression. For years Japanese institutions propped up the global bond"
X Link 2025-05-20T18:21Z 72.3K followers, 978.6K engagements
"Which bond market fails first US or Japan. Place your bets. 🧐"
X Link 2025-05-20T18:09Z 85.6K followers, 244.5K engagements
"Whats Really Driving the 10-Year Yield Higher The 10-year Treasury yield just climbed to 4.542% and its not because the economy is overheating. Heres whats actually happening under the hood: This move in the 10Y is a stress signal not a growth signal. While CPI is cooling and GDP just contracted in Q1 (-0.3%) the long end is still rising. Why Because were watching the bond market try to absorb a flood of issuance without its historical buyers. Foreign official demand is weak. Domestic balance sheet capacity is saturated. And with the Fed still engaged in QT (Quantitative Tightening) theres no"
X Link 2025-05-14T23:32Z 72.3K followers, 265.3K engagements
"This is why Powells hint about ending QT matters so much. QT drains reserves out of the system every week and with the reverse repo facility nearly empty theres less margin for error. When Powell says hes starting to see money market tightening hes effectively acknowledging that the Fed has hit the edge of how far it can push quantitative tightening without risking dysfunction in repo markets T-bill liquidity or bank reserve levels. Its the same pressure point that led to the September [----] repo spike only now the balance sheet is much larger and the Treasurys financing needs are far heavier."
X Link 2025-10-14T17:43Z 72.3K followers, 275.5K engagements
"*POWELL: STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE TIGHTENING IN MONEY MARKETS oopsie"
X Link 2025-10-14T16:52Z 2.5M followers, 846.8K engagements
"This 39% tariff on [--] kilogram and [---] ounce gold bars from Switzerland is a calculated move with immediate market consequences. The July [--] U.S. Customs ruling reclassified these bars the exact formats COMEX accepts for delivery into a tariffed category. Thats critical because Switzerland is the worlds largest gold refining hub and a substantial share of the physical gold that underpins COMEX futures flows from there. Within hours of the news premiums for New York gold futures jumped above the spot price signaling that deliverable supply into the U.S. market had abruptly tightened. Swiss"
X Link 2025-08-08T01:51Z 72.3K followers, 239.4K engagements
"COMEX trades in [--] kg [---] oz bars; this could affect gold price immediately"
X Link 2025-08-07T22:04Z 15.5K followers, 203.7K engagements
"This is basically a stimulus plan dressed up as a rebate. The idea of using tariff money makes it sound like its paid for but in reality its closer to a form of universal basic income. And the timing says a lot the economys clearly showing cracks: job losses are starting oil prices are falling because demand is weak and people are literally searching for second jobs just to keep up. Dropping $1000$2000 into every taxpayers pocket would be a quick way to pump money back into the system and keep spending from collapsing. Tariffs are just the cover story the real goal is to get cash flowing"
X Link 2025-10-02T22:18Z 72.3K followers, 154.7K engagements
"JUST IN: President Trump says he is considering $1000 - $2000 stimulus checks for all taxpayers using tariff revenue"
X Link 2025-10-02T20:42Z 3.8M followers, 5.1M engagements
"The Repricing of Trust in a Fractured Collateral System Gold hitting $4000 is the sign that the global financial system is starting to revalue gold as a form of collateral not just as a metal or hedge. The real story is about how institutions and central banks are quietly changing how gold fits into the plumbing of global finance. Collateral is about trust and liquidity. When a bank or clearinghouse accepts an asset as collateral its because that asset can be easily valued transferred and relied upon in times of stress. For decades U.S. Treasuries have been the foundation of that system"
X Link 2025-10-07T01:44Z 72.3K followers, 269.4K engagements
"JUST IN 🚨: Gold hits $4000 for the first time in history 📈📈 Congrats everyone we did it 🥳🫂"
X Link 2025-10-07T01:24Z 478.5K followers, 286.9K engagements
"Chipotles latest earnings call was a real time snapshot of the American consumer. On paper the results looked mixed. Earnings per share came in at $0.29 right on target but revenue of $3.0 billion fell short of expectations by about $30 million. Comparable sales were up just 0.3% and even that small gain came from higher average check sizes not more customers walking through the door. For the third straight quarter Chipotle cut its full year same store sales outlook now projecting only low single digit growth instead of flat. The message was clear enough the consumer is slowing down and the"
X Link 2025-10-30T02:10Z 72.3K followers, 405.7K engagements
"BREAKING: Chipotle stock $CMG collapses nearly -15% as the company says that younger diners are pulling back"
X Link 2025-10-29T21:47Z 1.4M followers, 3M engagements
"The Bond Market Just Broke And No Ones Sounding the Alarm Yields are screaming. The Fed is boxed in. And the U.S. government just got a margin call from the global market. [--]. What Just Happened Today U.S. Treasury yields detonated across the curve: 10-Year Yield: +10.7bps to 4.38% 5-Year Yield: +12.1bps to 3.99% 2-Year Yield: +9.1bps to 3.88% 30-Year Yield: now sitting at a cycle high of 4.85% This isnt a soft landing adjustment. Its a bond market protest a sharp repricing of U.S. fiscal credibility inflation risk and institutional confidence. [--]. This Is Not a Drill. Its a Breakdown. The"
X Link 2025-05-08T22:05Z 72.3K followers, 596.1K engagements
"That thing is happening again"
X Link 2025-05-08T20:38Z 10.1K followers, 753.1K engagements
"Regional bank stocks are sliding again shows that the market is waking up to the underlying fragility in their balance sheets. When the [--] year yield falls this fast it usually means investors see a shift from inflation risk to credit risk. Thats bad news for smaller and mid sized banks because theyre heavily exposed to commercial real estate carry a lot of low yielding assets from the zero rate era and have to fund themselves in a much tighter environment now that emergency facilities like the Feds BTFP have expired. These banks are getting squeezed from both sides. Deposit costs are rising"
X Link 2025-10-16T17:34Z 72.3K followers, 175.9K engagements
"Regional banking crisis [---] Pay attention. Thanks for listening Regional banking. Something ominous brewing. https://t.co/QPWkNlTj0l Regional banking. Something ominous brewing. https://t.co/QPWkNlTj0l"
X Link 2025-10-16T16:40Z 177.6K followers, 633K engagements
"The Risk of the U.S. Economy No One Is Talking About If the Fed cuts rates in September history suggests it will likely confirm the beginning of an easing cycle that coincides with rising unemployment. Every sustained easing cycle of the past half century has followed not prevented economic deterioration. This time the risks stretch across every layer of the credit system leaving households banks pensions and governments exposed. Corporate bonds are the first fault line. High yield still pays north of 7% and investment grade 56% but spreads are near historic lows leaving little buffer against"
X Link 2025-08-30T02:59Z 72.3K followers, 190.4K engagements
"This might look like just another central bank liquidity move but its not. The BOJ stepping in to supply U.S. dollars against pooled collateral starting July [--] is one of those quiet technical shifts that says more than any press release ever could. To me this is about whats coming for the entire global dollar system. What I think is going on is Japanese institutions are feeling the squeeze. Theyve been running massive USD carry trades borrowing in yen buying U.S. assets hedging the FX. That worked when dollar liquidity was easy and the hedge was cheap. But with Powell holding rates high and"
X Link 2025-07-15T03:16Z 72.3K followers, 334.1K engagements
"BOJ to supply USD funds against pooled collateral from July 17"
X Link 2025-07-15T02:35Z 639.3K followers, 131.5K engagements
"What youre seeing is a sharp divergence between listed private credit proxies (a Blackstone BDC and Blue Owls stock) and the S&P [---]. The index is levitating on mega cap tech momentum and easing policy hopes but private credit is pricing a very different cycle with tighter cash flows at borrowers rising loss expectations and margin compression ahead. Private credits core exposure is floating rate loans to middle market sponsor backed companies. Higher short rates were a tailwind at first yields reset up quickly while credit losses were still muted so BDC earnings looked great. That phase is"
X Link 2025-09-30T21:38Z 72.3K followers, 420.4K engagements
"Japans Bond Market: The Global Sovereign Debt Bubble Is Fracturing Post: Japans 30-year government bond yield just hit 3.13% the highest level in history. But this isnt just a local market move. Its a global alarm bell. Heres why it matters: [--]. This Isnt a Japan Story. Its a Global Stress Signal. For decades Japans long-term bond yields were suppressed under Yield Curve Control (YCC) a pillar of the deflationary low-rate world. That pillar is now cracking. The Bank of Japan is either losing control of the long end or choosing to exit slowly. Either outcome breaks the global feedback loop."
X Link 2025-05-21T02:02Z 72.3K followers, 151K engagements
"Japan's 30-year bond yield jumps to 3.13% its highest level in history"
X Link 2025-05-21T01:01Z 478.5K followers, 1M engagements
"(1/2) What Happens If Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz Strategic Context: The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical maritime chokepoint in the world. Roughly 20% of globally traded crude oil and 30% of global LNG shipments transit its narrow waters daily. If Iran were to close or significantly disrupt the Strait via mining anti ship missiles drone swarms or fast-attack naval craft it would initiate not just a regional crisis but a systemic shock to the global economy supply chains and security architecture. First-Order Effects (Immediate Week 1) Energy Spike: Crude oil could surge $30$60 in"
X Link 2025-06-14T01:23Z 72.3K followers, 1.4M engagements
"This chart may appear to signal a breakdown in the dollar but in reality it may be the staging ground for one of the most violent reversals in recent history. DXY is testing the lower bound of a multi-decade ascending channel a level that has repeatedly marked inflection points since [----]. Every time weve touched this range the dollar has launched higher. Yet what makes this moment unique is the timing: the Fed is on the cusp of rate cuts. While conventional wisdom sees easing as dollar negative the structure of global finance often flips that logic. When the Fed cuts into a disinflationary"
X Link 2025-07-06T05:01Z 72.3K followers, 166.2K engagements
"Now or never for the U.S. Dollar $DXY"
X Link 2025-07-06T04:42Z 478.5K followers, 579.6K engagements
"Wall Street dealers lined up with nearly $24 billion of old long dated Treasuries they wanted to dump. The Treasury only took $2 billion and just from one specific issue. Thats not because they couldnt take more. Its because this isnt QE. Theyre not trying to pump markets or cut rates. What theyre doing is clearing out the hardest to trade bonds that are gumming up the system. Think of it like a highway. When a few broken down trucks are blocking lanes traffic slows to a crawl even if the road itself is fine. In bond markets those broken down trucks are old illiquid bonds trading at steep"
X Link 2025-09-20T00:18Z 72.3K followers, 169.2K engagements
"Second time in a row that US buys back debt and we dip"
X Link 2025-09-19T17:55Z 244.7K followers, 204.3K engagements
"This chart is showing that money market funds basically cash parked in ultra short instruments have swelled to an all time high of $7.4 trillion. We only see buildups like this when investors want yield but dont want to take on duration or equity risk. It happened after the dot com bust again after the GFC and in [------] when rates were floored and money waited on the sidelines. Right now elevated yields north of 5% have made cash unusually attractive but that dynamic wont last if the Fed starts cutting. If the Fed trims [--] or [--] basis points on September [--] yields on money funds savings"
X Link 2025-09-09T00:15Z 72.3K followers, 109.4K engagements
"$7.4 Trillion is now sitting in money market funds an all-time high 🚨🚨"
X Link 2025-09-08T21:29Z 478.5K followers, 834.8K engagements
"If Trumps announcement today of a 90-day tariff pause was truly bullish and risk-on why did we see 10Y yields spike to 4.50%+ SOFR swap spreads collapse to [------] gold rip $107 intraday junk bond yields hit 8.51% and TLT get liquidated on record volume all while equities soared Shouldnt these indicators have calmed not worsened Is this not confirmation that the tariff news was a sideshow and the real story is a hidden collateral or funding crisis unraveling in real time"
X Link 2025-04-09T20:39Z 72.3K followers, 102.7K engagements
"Whats happening with Nexperia goes way beyond a simple regulatory move by the Dutch government this is a front line moment in the global tech power struggle between the West and China. On paper the Netherlands says its stepping in because of administrative shortcomings and national security risks. But in reality this is about cutting off one of Chinas quiet backdoors into Western chip technology. Nexperia may be based in Europe but its owned by Chinas Wingtech and the fear is that valuable know how could end up back in Chinese hands. By freezing Nexperias corporate decisions and removing its"
X Link 2025-10-13T01:44Z 72.3K followers, 125.1K engagements
"Dutch government takes control of Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia https://on.ft.com/4n63Vce https://on.ft.com/4n63Vce"
X Link 2025-10-12T22:42Z 6.4M followers, 2.7M engagements
"The bond market is quietly saying the economy is losing momentum. When yields drop like this across the curve especially with the [--] year back below 4% its a sign that both borrowers and lenders are pulling back. Households are hitting their limits with high credit card and loan rates businesses are delaying expansion and banks are tightening credit instead of growing it. In that kind of environment money itself gets cheaper not because the Fed is cutting rates but because fewer people want to borrow it. At the same time investors are shifting into longer term Treasuries for safety and income"
X Link 2025-10-20T21:45Z 72.3K followers, 168.1K engagements
"Rates are falling. Credit demand is decaying"
X Link 2025-10-20T20:18Z 21.1K followers, 150.4K engagements
"Switzerlands Negative Yields Are Back And Its a Global Red Flag Not a Local Anomaly A remarkable event just unfolded quietly in global bond markets Swiss government bonds with maturities up to [--] years are once again offering negative yields. Investors are literally paying the Swiss government for the privilege of lending them money. While this may sound like a local curiosity its anything but. This is a critical signal of deep systemic fractures emerging across global financial markets. Why This Matters: A Signal of Global Capital Distress Whenever you see investors accepting guaranteed"
X Link 2025-05-10T22:39Z 72.3K followers, 633K engagements
"The Comeback of Negative Interest Rates: In Switzerland govt bonds w/maturities of up to 4yrs are once again offering negative yields. In other words investors effectively pay to lend money to the Swiss government"
X Link 2025-05-10T22:25Z 365.3K followers, 323.5K engagements
"Sherwin Williams cutting its 401(k) match is a pretty loud signal about where the cracks are showing in the economy. The company lives and dies by housing turnover and renovation cycles. Normally people buying and selling homes drive paint demand and DIY projects keep the volume steady. But with mortgage rates still locking people into their old homes that churn has dried up. At the same time households have been dealing with higher costs for years so discretionary spending on remodeling and upgrades has softened. Layer on tariffs that are pushing up costs for key materials like pigments and"
X Link 2025-09-15T02:00Z 72.3K followers, 129.2K engagements
"SHERWIN-WILLIAMS SUSPENDS 401K CONTRIBUTION MATCHING AS PROFITS SLUMP -- PREVIOUS SUSPENSIONS TOOK PLACE DURING COVID LOCKDOWNS & GFC: CLEVELAND DOT COM ### $SHW"
X Link 2025-09-14T04:38Z 25.9K followers, 118.1K engagements
"The Bank of Japan once the worlds most aggressive monetary expansionist is now shrinking its bond holdings faster than any period in modern history with a [---] trillion decline in Q1 alone. This is a foundational reordering of global liquidity assumptions. For decades the BOJ acted as the silent ballast in the global carry trade suppressing volatility and subsidizing global leverage through ultra loose policy. But now Japan is effectively reversing course just as global bond markets are digesting higher for longer rate regimes and geopolitical capital fragmentation. What makes this move"
X Link 2025-06-19T12:00Z 72.3K followers, 60.4K engagements
"When volatility suddenly spikes like this risk models used by hedge funds and big institutions called value at risk or VAR models automatically tell them to cut exposure. Once those models trip the selling becomes mechanical programs start dumping assets to stay within risk limits. Thats what he means by nothing he says can prevent program selling. Its not emotion driven selling; its algorithmic risk control. Where hes right is that once this process starts it feeds on itself. The higher the volatility the more these systems sell which creates even more volatility. But Id add that catalysts"
X Link 2025-10-11T00:46Z 72.3K followers, 132.5K engagements
"When this happens you have VAR shocks. Trump was not the reason and nothing he says can prevent program selling"
X Link 2025-10-10T23:58Z 57.3K followers, 304.6K engagements
"Because its not about funding availability its about the terms and conditionality of funding when your debt underpins the entire global financial system. The U.S. isnt like other sovereigns. It doesnt just borrow to fund itself it issues the asset that anchors collateral chains settles FX swaps backs derivatives and serves as margin for global risk-taking. Other nations borrow in markets. The U.S. is the market. And thats the paradox: when your debt is systemically central it must be perceived as stable liquid and low volatility or else the entire global leverage system begins to crack. Thats"
X Link 2025-04-10T02:33Z 72.3K followers, 83.1K engagements
"This is a classic late cycle disconnect between credit markets and the real economy. Investment grade spreads are at their tightest since [----] which means investors are treating corporate debt as if it carries virtually no risk premium over Treasuries. In other words the market is pricing near perfection with steady growth low default risk and benign inflation. But thats at odds with whats happening under the surface: payrolls have started to weaken revisions have shown job creation was overstated and leading indicators point toward a slowdown. Investors desperate for yield pile into credit"
X Link 2025-09-16T13:44Z 72.3K followers, 99.2K engagements
"Spreads on investment-grade bonds are at the lowest levels since 1998"
X Link 2025-09-16T11:16Z 427.7K followers, 592K engagements
"Japans Sovereign Bond Market Just Sent a Global Warning Shot Japans 30-year government bond yield has surged past 3.13% a historic move that marks the highest long-end yield Japan has seen in modern times. But this isnt just a domestic policy failure. Its a structural stress signal for the entire global bond market. Heres what it means: For decades Japan was the anchor of low-yield low-volatility sovereign debt. The BOJs yield curve control policy kept long-end borrowing costs artificially suppressed even with a staggering 260% debt-to-GDP ratio. That illusion is now unraveling. The long end"
X Link 2025-05-20T14:16Z 72.3K followers, 155.2K engagements
"Japan's bond market is imploding: Japan's 30Y Government Bond Yield has officially surged to its highest level in history at 3.15%. For decades Japan was known for low long-term interest rates. Now they are dealing with high inflation shifting policy outlook and a whopping 260% Debt-to-GDP ratio. On top of this Japan holds $1.1 TRILLION worth of US debt making it the largest foreign holder of US debt. Yesterday Japans Prime Minister Ishiba called the situation worse than Greece. What will Japan do here"
X Link 2025-05-20T12:27Z 1.4M followers, 1.8M engagements
"BREAKING: U.S. LAWMAKERS UNVEIL SWEEPING CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE BILLA MAJOR STEP TOWARD FEDERAL OVERSIGHT What Stands Out Most What jumps off the page is how comprehensive this bill is. It isnt just crypto regulation its a full integration blueprint for how digital assets get absorbed into the U.S. financial architecture. The CFTC would become the primary regulator for digital commodities creating a single national standard and pulling spot markets onshore. Thats a big deal geopolitically. It reasserts U.S. control over an ecosystem thats been scattering across offshore exchanges tax havens"
X Link 2025-11-11T01:02Z 72.3K followers, 129.7K engagements
"This chart is a glaring signal of liquidity stress and a loss of confidence in sovereign debt markets. Under normal macro conditions equity drawdowns of this magnitude are typically accompanied by falling yields as capital flees to safety. But here the 10-year yield is rising sharply even as the S&P [---] drops over 4.5% in three hours. This divergence suggests that investors are dumping both stocks and bonds a clear sign of forced deleveraging not rotation. The market is no longer confident that Treasuries will act as a hedge and instead sees them as part of the systemic risk. What the bond"
X Link 2025-04-08T17:30Z 72.3K followers, 74.4K engagements
"This chart from @nickgerli1 is essential context for anyone thinking about buying a home right now and it reinforces the argument I made recently in my post So youre thinking about buying a house soon Heres why you should wait. What were looking at here is [---] years of U.S. home price history adjusted for inflation using the Case-Shiller index. The takeaway is clear: todays prices arent just elevated theyre historically anomalous. The index is now 90% above its long-term average and the only comparable spike (2006) ended in a catastrophic reset. Theres simply no precedent for this kind of"
X Link 2025-06-20T19:34Z 72.3K followers, 64.1K engagements
"For those begging for rate cuts look back at [----] and [----]. The Fed started cutting right before unemployment spiked. The pivot wasnt a win it was the signal that the real damage was about to hit. If the economy was healthy and booming there would be no need to cut rates"
X Link 2025-08-19T02:46Z 72.3K followers, 66.1K engagements
"(1) Heres the full breakdown of what likely happened between April [--] and April [--] [----] and what it suggests going forward: April 7: The Tariff Pause That Wasnt At 10:15 AM ET on April [--] markets were jolted by a rumor that President Trump was pausing all tariffs for [--] days excluding China. The S&P [---] exploded over [---] points intraday reversing deep early losses. But beneath that rally something far more ominous was happening. Multiple real-time stress signals lit up across global markets: 10Y Treasury yield spiked 30+ bps one of the largest intraday reversals in modern historynot consistent"
X Link 2025-04-09T19:31Z 72.3K followers, 131.5K engagements
"Heres what COULD be happening beneath the surface: were witnessing a coordinated pause by the Fed and Treasury not out of strength or stability but as a last-ditch effort to stall systemic collapse while they prepare the architecture for a new monetary regime. The plumbing of the global dollar system is breaking down basis trades are unraveling swap spreads are collapsing into negative territory SOFR-Fed Funds spreads are inverted and long-end Treasuries are being sold into weakness not bought. And yet the Fed isnt stepping in. Thats not because things are fine its because they cant move"
X Link 2025-04-09T04:00Z 72.3K followers, 110.9K engagements
"What Trump announced today a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and new export controls on critical U.S. software is one of those moments that shifts the trajectory of the global economy whether or not its actually implemented. Even if these measures never fully take effect the threat alone changes how companies investors and governments behave. It signals that the worlds two largest economies are no longer trying to manage their rivalry theyre preparing to decouple. If it does go through the effects could be dramatic. Its not just a rerun of the trade wars from [----] this would be more like a"
X Link 2025-10-10T21:16Z 72.3K followers, 162.2K engagements
"BREAKING: President Trump announces a 100% tariff on China starting November 1st and export controls on "any and all critical software.""
X Link 2025-10-10T20:56Z 1.4M followers, 1M engagements
"Credit to @KobeissiLetter for his sharp thread on the UKs bond and fiscal crisis. He highlighted the surge in gilt yields the widening deficits and the BoEs impossible tradeoff. Where Ill take it further is by connecting these signals into the bigger picture of how they fit into global market stress and what the Fed and U.S. Treasury are likely aiming for next. The UK is the clearest warning sign. The [--] year gilt yield at 5.64% its highest since [----] is now fifteen times above its [----] lows. Moves like that dont happen in normal cycles; they happen at regime breaks. In the 1970s it was"
X Link 2025-09-02T04:03Z 72.3K followers, 97.7K engagements
"The UK's bond market is collapsing: Today the yield on a 30Y Bond in the UK rose to 5.64% its highest level since [----]. Yields in the UK are now [--] TIMES higher than they were at the [----] low just [--] years ago. What is happening Let us explain. (a thread)"
X Link 2025-09-01T15:06Z 1.4M followers, 4.7M engagements
"The Domino Effect Begins: Jamie Dimons Cockroach Warning Coming To Fruition Jamie Dimons recent warning that when you see one cockroach there are probably more is now playing out almost line for line. First came Tricolor Holdings a subprime auto lender that collapsed under the weight of bad loans and alleged fraud. Then First Brands a heavily indebted auto parts manufacturer filed for Chapter [--]. Now PrimaLend Capital Partners another subprime lender has fallen after defaulting on its bond payments pushed into bankruptcy by unpaid creditors. These arent isolated blowups; theyre the first"
X Link 2025-10-22T13:41Z 72.3K followers, 108.9K engagements
"Subprime Lender PrimaLend Enters Bankruptcy After Bond Default"
X Link 2025-10-22T12:05Z 2.5M followers, 514.6K engagements
"The United States is preparing to stabilize Argentina through the Treasurys Exchange Stabilization Fund using instruments such as dollar swap lines direct peso purchases and targeted buying of Argentine sovereign bonds. This replicates the [----] Mexico rescue when swift U.S. intervention stopped a collapse and reinforced U.S. dominance in Latin America. In the short term these measures would steady the peso and place a floor under Argentine bond prices. In the longer view the purpose is alignment. With Argentina already consuming nearly half of the IMFs global lending capacity Washington is"
X Link 2025-09-22T20:38Z 72.3K followers, 108.4K engagements
"Argentina is a systemically important U.S. ally in Latin America and the @USTreasury stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table. 1/4"
X Link 2025-09-22T12:46Z 823.3K followers, 9.8M engagements
"What Kobeissi highlights about rate cuts at record highs is true on a [--] month view stocks usually end up higher. But rate cuts dont come in calm waters they come when unemployment is rising growth is stalling or stress is breaking things. Look back at [----] or [----]. The Fed cut hard and yes stocks eventually rallied but only after serious damage. In the dot com bust the S&P and Nasdaq collapsed unemployment climbed from 4% to above 6% and the recovery didnt come until that pain was absorbed. In [------] the Fed slashed rates to zero but unemployment still surged past 10% and markets endured a"
X Link 2025-09-13T21:16Z 72.3K followers, 156.1K engagements
"Rate cuts at record highs: In [--] out of the last [--] times that the Fed has cut rates with the S&P [---] at record highs stocks ended higher [--] months later. In fact the S&P [---] rallied an average of 13.9% over the next [--] months according to Carson Research. However in [--] out of the last [--] times that this has happened stocks ended lower [--] month later. Near-term volatility will lead to long-term buying opportunities. The time has come: On Wednesday the Fed will cut rates for the first time in [----] and "blame" a weak labor market. This will be just the 3rd year since [----] with Fed rate cuts"
X Link 2025-09-13T19:30Z 1.4M followers, 580.2K engagements
"Silvers rise right now is the result of monetary shifts industrial demand and geopolitical restructuring all colliding at once. To understand it you have to see silver as the bridge between two worlds: the old monetary system thats losing credibility and the new energy and technology systems being built to replace it. On the monetary side investors are moving back into hard assets as confidence in fiat systems erodes. Global debt loads are at record highs central banks are quietly cutting exposure to Treasuries and real yields are rolling over. Gold has broken to all time highs but silver"
X Link 2025-10-13T21:26Z 72.3K followers, 140.5K engagements
"SILVER HAS DONE IT 🚨🚨🚨 A new all-time high 📈🥳🫂"
X Link 2025-10-13T17:31Z 478.5K followers, 319.6K engagements
"Japans 30-year bond yield just spiked to 2.798% rising faster than U.S. long bonds an important signal that global bond markets are losing their most stable anchor. For decades Japans ultra-low yields supported global carry trades and suppressed volatility but this sharp move suggests either the Bank of Japan is quietly stepping back from yield curve control or forced selling is hitting Japans bond market amid global stress. This matters: rising Japanese yields can trigger FX volatility (especially in USD/JPY) disrupt global portfolio hedging and signal deeper instability in sovereign debt"
X Link 2025-04-15T13:46Z 72.3K followers, 98.3K engagements
"In case you missed it: 30y Japanese govt bond yields have climbed even more sharply than their US counterparts. Since April [--] Japans 30y yield has risen 33bps while the US 30y yield is up 29bps over the same period. (HT @bilalhafeez123)"
X Link 2025-04-15T12:13Z 365.3K followers, 119.7K engagements
"Absolutely spot on @SantiagoAuFund and this is the fatal flaw in most de-dollarization narratives. People severely underestimate how much dollar-based liabilities anchor the global system. The moment the U.S. stops exporting dollars whether via trade deficits capital flows or Treasury issuance you create a global dollar shortage that slams everyone holding dollar-denominated obligations. 1.$13T in on-balance sheet USD debt is the visible iceberg sovereign bonds international corporate loans and trade financing that demand regular interest and principal repayments in dollars. Even slight"
X Link 2025-04-12T20:17Z 72.3K followers, 47K engagements
"Historically new homes almost always commanded a premium because they offered fresh construction modern layouts and builder incentives were minor relative to demand. Existing homes carried the discount because they came with age inefficiencies or location trade offs. The inversion you see now with new homes being cheaper than existing means builders are being forced to liquidate at scale. They cant sit on unsold inventory when carrying costs (financing materials labor and land loans) are crushing them so they cut aggressively to move product. Meanwhile existing homeowners are sticky. Theyre"
X Link 2025-08-18T20:14Z 72.3K followers, 66.2K engagements
"For the first time ever it is considerably cheaper to buy a new house than to buy an existing house. Likely signals an inflection point in the housing market"
X Link 2025-08-18T20:01Z 144.6K followers, 1.6M engagements
"Waking Up From the Matrix The first real step toward understanding the world isnt about politics money or ideology its about seeing through the illusion that any of it was ever designed with your wellbeing in mind. The system doesnt care about you. Not the parties not the talking heads not the corporations funding them. The entire structure runs on your belief that it does. It survives by convincing you that if you just pick the right side shout loud enough or vote for the lesser evil something will finally change. But the truth is it wont because change isnt the goal. Control is. Once you"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:50Z 72.3K followers, 86.4K engagements
"What Tether is doing here is survival. They already hold over [------] Bitcoin (worth about $7B) and more than $100B in U.S. Treasuries making them one of the largest private holders of U.S. government debt. That ties them directly into the plumbing of the dollar system. But now theyve layered in $8.7B of physical gold and even stakes in gold miners. That shift is a hedge against the cracks they see forming. The way they framed it is telling. Calling gold the Natural Bitcoin is just branding for the crypto crowd an attempt to avoid looking hypocritical to those whove been told Bitcoin is the"
X Link 2025-09-07T12:36Z 72.3K followers, 90.1K engagements
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