[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  EndGame Macro [@onechancefreedm](/creator/twitter/onechancefreedm) on x 39.8K followers Created: 2025-07-21 01:37:06 UTC This chart is one of the clearest illustrations of the growing codependence between U.S. fiscal policy and monetary accommodation. It reveals a structural reality that the massive issuance of U.S. Treasuries, especially since 2020, has not been met with proportionate demand from traditional buyers like foreign investors, banks, or households. Instead, it’s been increasingly absorbed by yield insensitive actors such as the Federal Reserve, money market funds, and GSEs. The surge in issuance following COVID was met by a historic flood of Fed intervention, but once quantitative tightening began, the gap between issuance and natural demand reopened dramatically. What we’re witnessing in early 2025 is a return to that imbalance. The total demand for Treasuries (black line) is now falling below the pace of new issuance again, and there’s no large scale QE in place to bridge the gap. Foreign buyers, who once served as a core stabilizing force, have continued their multi year pullback, likely due to geopolitical risk, de-dollarization efforts, and better returns elsewhere. Households, flush during stimulus years, are now largely tapped out. That leaves the system increasingly dependent on reactive buyers like dealers and MMFs that respond only when liquidity conditions force their hand. This setup suggests that without another major intervention, whether overt or disguised, the system will face either sharply rising yields or a disorderly buyer’s strike. The Fed, despite talk of QT and restraint, may be forced back into the fray through indirect measures like RRP drawdowns, emergency funding facilities, or international swap lines. The deeper issue is that capped yields have allowed unchecked fiscal expansion, and without market based rate discipline, there’s little incentive for Congress to rein in deficits. So long as the Fed remains a silent partner in debt monetization, fiscal irresponsibility is structurally enabled. Looking ahead, this dynamic is unlikely to resolve on its own. Absent sweeping reform or an external shock that forces change, the U.S. will likely return to some form of liquidity support by late 2025 or early 2026, not because the Fed wants to, but because the system can’t function without it. What we’re seeing is a structural constraint on sovereignty through financial dependence. XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [fed](/topic/fed) [federal reserve](/topic/federal-reserve) [macro](/topic/macro) [endgame](/topic/endgame) [Post Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1947108539979407590)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm on x 39.8K followers
Created: 2025-07-21 01:37:06 UTC
This chart is one of the clearest illustrations of the growing codependence between U.S. fiscal policy and monetary accommodation. It reveals a structural reality that the massive issuance of U.S. Treasuries, especially since 2020, has not been met with proportionate demand from traditional buyers like foreign investors, banks, or households. Instead, it’s been increasingly absorbed by yield insensitive actors such as the Federal Reserve, money market funds, and GSEs. The surge in issuance following COVID was met by a historic flood of Fed intervention, but once quantitative tightening began, the gap between issuance and natural demand reopened dramatically.
What we’re witnessing in early 2025 is a return to that imbalance. The total demand for Treasuries (black line) is now falling below the pace of new issuance again, and there’s no large scale QE in place to bridge the gap. Foreign buyers, who once served as a core stabilizing force, have continued their multi year pullback, likely due to geopolitical risk, de-dollarization efforts, and better returns elsewhere. Households, flush during stimulus years, are now largely tapped out. That leaves the system increasingly dependent on reactive buyers like dealers and MMFs that respond only when liquidity conditions force their hand.
This setup suggests that without another major intervention, whether overt or disguised, the system will face either sharply rising yields or a disorderly buyer’s strike. The Fed, despite talk of QT and restraint, may be forced back into the fray through indirect measures like RRP drawdowns, emergency funding facilities, or international swap lines. The deeper issue is that capped yields have allowed unchecked fiscal expansion, and without market based rate discipline, there’s little incentive for Congress to rein in deficits. So long as the Fed remains a silent partner in debt monetization, fiscal irresponsibility is structurally enabled.
Looking ahead, this dynamic is unlikely to resolve on its own. Absent sweeping reform or an external shock that forces change, the U.S. will likely return to some form of liquidity support by late 2025 or early 2026, not because the Fed wants to, but because the system can’t function without it. What we’re seeing is a structural constraint on sovereignty through financial dependence.
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics fed federal reserve macro endgame