[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

# ![@onechancefreedm Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1448432122881101826.png) @onechancefreedm EndGame Macro

The US economy is showing signs of stress, with indicators such as layoff announcements, declining home-builder confidence, and a shrinking prime-age workforce. Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with rising conflicts between the US and Iran, and Israel, and a potential shift in global liquidity. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady is seen as a strategic move to resist premature easing and maintain optionality for future policy actions.

### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1448432122881101826/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXXXX +60%
- X Month XXXXXXXXXX +98%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +205%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +108,627%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1448432122881101826/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX -XX%
- X Month XXX +8.20%
- X Months XXXXX +127%
- X Year XXXXX +1,365%

### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1448432122881101826/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXXX +4.10%
- X Month XXXXXX +14%
- X Months XXXXXX +100%
- X Year XXXXXX +29,648%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1448432122881101826/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #2347 [countries](/list/countries)  #5815 [stocks](/list/stocks)  #5523 [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  XXXX% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  XXXX% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[money](/topic/money) 5.81%, [if you](/topic/if-you) #1324, [the first](/topic/the-first) 3.87%, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #3285, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #52, [japan](/topic/japan) 3.23%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) #751, [carry](/topic/carry) #1159, [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet) #234, [china](/topic/china) #286

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@m3melody](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@webmiester](/creator/undefined) [@dimartinobooth](/creator/undefined) [@financefiendz](/creator/undefined) [@vincentsco72192](/creator/undefined) [@wahlstromgrant](/creator/undefined) [@hungtran0182](/creator/undefined) [@santiagoaufund](/creator/undefined) [@teddybitcoins](/creator/undefined) [@shaunry29620415](/creator/undefined) [@txsatstacker](/creator/undefined) [@gregtomaselli](/creator/undefined) [@mauiboymacro](/creator/undefined) [@145jerryjack](/creator/undefined) [@bankerjash](/creator/undefined) [@gedigan265172](/creator/undefined) [@bobgonzalebob](/creator/undefined) [@liquiditygame1](/creator/undefined) [@menthorqpro](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Accenture (ACN)](/topic/accenture) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL)](/topic/dell)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"When Oil Falls Bitcoin Slips and Metals Rise Something Bigger Is Shifting When you line everything up from Powells Jackson Hole speech to now the pattern is surprisingly clean. Silver is running away from the pack. Golds not far behind. Stocks are grinding higher but not exploding. The dollar hasnt moved. Oil has slipped. Bitcoin has fallen apart. That mix alone tells you this isnt an inflation story. Its something quieter. Silver leading while oil and Bitcoin sink is the markets way of sayingWere not fighting runaway prices anymore were settling into a slower cooler environment. In"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1994803084497764453)  2025-11-29T16:18Z 68.2K followers, 90.6K engagements


"Play the Game That Fits Your Life In moments like this people get pulled in a hundred different directions. Every influencer every chart guy every this is the moment account is shouting their version of reality. But none of those people live your life. None of them carry your responsibilities. None of them pay your bills or take care of your family. So the focus has to shift from what the market wants from you to what actually makes sense for you. Some people really can stomach heavy volatility. They have stable income low debt long time horizons and enough cushion to absorb a bad year or two"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1995524757219840422)  2025-12-01T16:05Z 68.2K followers, 11.9K engagements


"Youre Watching the Wrong NumberThe Stress Is Hidden in the Plumbing This weeks H.4.1 doesnt deliver a dramatic headline. The Feds balance sheet barely moved down about $16B still sitting near $6.5T. But the details beneath that surface are far more revealing. The Fed isnt tightening anymore but it also isnt easing in the way markets often imagine. Its managing a system thats getting more delicate to steer. And now that QT is officially over and another rate cut is expected in a few days the story becomes less about size and more about how liquidity is shifting inside the system. What Actually"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996779422293057822)  2025-12-05T03:11Z 68.2K followers, 60.8K engagements


"Forget the Headlines The X Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth. The X month Treasury is basically the markets closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range its the markets way of saying Were already looking past todays rate and pricing where the Fed is headed next. Historically its also one of the key pieces in recession tracking. When short rates fall while long rates stay sticky youre almost always in that late cycle zone where the Fed shifts from tightening to cushioning. What Its Telling You Right Now Given the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1995950455617142835)  2025-12-02T20:17Z 68.2K followers, 218.5K engagements


"Where Medieval Power Meets Modern Finance And The Untold Story of the City of London @scientificecon point resonates because the City of London really does sit inside the U.K. with a political and legal structure unlike anything else in the country. Its odd status isnt modern at all its the product of a series of agreements that go back nearly a thousand years. After the Norman Conquest William I issued a charter in 1067 guaranteeing that Londons citizens could keep their ancient laws and customs. That single act effectively recognized the City as a semi autonomous community inside the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1997065838663254136)  2025-12-05T22:09Z 68.2K followers, 69.8K engagements


"When Low Claims Stop Meaning What They Used To At face value this chart makes the labor market look calm. Claims are low layoffs arent accelerating and the line is drifting back toward levels we usually associate with stability. If you only lived inside this metric youd think the job market is holding up just fine. But this number comes from a system that no longer reflects how people actually work. Why Claims Look Strong Even When Workers Arent Unemployment insurance was designed for a W-2 world. Today a huge share of workers dont fit that mold. Gig workers contractors self employed folks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1994448538353177066)  2025-11-28T16:49Z 68.2K followers, 45.6K engagements


"Once you recognize how carefully the narrative around the consumer is shaped something shifts. You start to see that so much of modern economic life is about confidence sentiment and the stories were encouraged to believe so the machine keeps turning. Theres a whole architecture built around keeping people optimistic enough to spend even when the underlying reality is weakening. And once that clicks you cant slip back into the old innocence. Every headline feels a little different. Every record number carries an asterisk. You begin to askis this information or is this maintenance of belief It"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1994809873087807799)  2025-11-29T16:45Z 68.2K followers, 12.3K engagements


"Monroe Doctrine 2.0: The Hemisphere as Strategic Depth Again If you strip away the slogans and look at the pattern of U.S. behavior in South America its clear this isnt a scattered drug operation or a dispute with one government. Its a coordinated effort to reassert control over the Western Hemisphere at a moment when the global system is strained and outside powers including China Russia and even Iran are expanding their influence in the region. Washington has rewritten the threat map. Cartels are no longer framed as criminal gangs but as shadow sovereigns that run ports smuggling corridors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1997521511238754785)  2025-12-07T04:20Z 68.2K followers, 388.6K engagements


"A Century Old Map Just Pulled Thailand and Cambodia to the Brink At the core Thailand and Cambodia are arguing over something thats both small and enormous at the same timea stretch of border shaped by a 1907 French colonial map and anchored around ancient temple sites like Preah Vihear. On paper its a cartography dispute. In practice its identity history and national pride stacked on top of geography. When a temple becomes a symbol of sovereignty every inch of surrounding land becomes emotionally charged. Both countries feel they have a legitimate claim and neither wants to be the one that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1997863444293243123)  2025-12-08T02:58Z 68.2K followers, 13.4K engagements


"What a XXXX Put/Call Ratio Is Really Telling Us A put/call down near these levels is the market saying Were not worried right now. When people stop buying puts and pile into calls it usually means theyve convinced themselves the coast is clear. Protection feels like a waste of money upside feels cheap and everyone wants to chase whats been working. Why Its Happening Now The setup makes sense. We just had a clean narrative flip the Fed stepped back cuts are on the table QT is ending yields have eased and stocks have ripped higher. A lot of managers were underweight risk all year and the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1995026442967511290)  2025-11-30T07:05Z 68.2K followers, 57.5K engagements


"Whats different now is that the market is no longer behaving like its under complete BoJ control. You dont get XX year yields pushing toward XXX% and XX year yields above XXX% unless investors are repricing an entire regime. Inflation hasnt vanished the fiscal footprint keeps growing and the BoJ is tiptoeing toward normalization without fully committing. Its the first real sign that the market no longer believes Japan can stay at zero forever that old assumption is breaking down. The Wild Card And What Happens If the Global Cycle Turns But heres the catchall of this only holds as long as the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1995434996371271844)  2025-12-01T10:09Z 68.2K followers, 22.5K engagements


"The Calm Before the Carry Trade Cracks Japans XX year yield pushing up means bond prices are slipping and lenders are basically saying If Im going to lend to Japan I want more interest. Simple. Why it matters is Japan has been the worlds cheap funding source for years. Borrow yen for almost nothing go buy something that pays more somewhere else. The moment Japanese yields rise even a little it changes the math on a massive amount of global positioning. Even with Japans 10Y around XXXX% the U.S. curve is still sitting much higher front end near the high 3s 10Y around XXXX% 30Y around 4.73%."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996285742499377567)  2025-12-03T18:29Z 68.2K followers, 676.7K engagements


"Japan may not be losing control but the current setup isnt as clean or intentional as it looks. The BOJ can guide yields because it effectively is the JGB market but that doesnt shield Japan from the broader forces that matter when the global cycle turns. A weaker yen helps exporters when demand is stable yet if the U.S. Europe and China all soften at the same time Japan absorbs the inflation from higher import prices without getting the growth boost from trade. And the whole strategy depends on the yen weakening gradually and not snapping. If the yen strengthens quickly Japanese pension"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1997049982214459619)  2025-12-05T21:06Z 68.2K followers, 32.5K engagements


"Too Much Money Too Few Deals And The Spread Compression Problem This is the price of private credit risk compressing. In 2022 into early 2023 private lenders were getting paid 600650 basis points over the floating benchmark on a typical deal. Since then both the average and the median spread have slid steadily and by 2025 the median is under XXX. Translation: borrowers are getting cheaper terms and lenders are giving up margin to win deals. Why this is happening Private credit is crowded now. Theres a lot of fresh money that has to get deployed and managers dont get rewarded for sitting in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1997256560561508664)  2025-12-06T10:47Z 68.2K followers, 8271 engagements


"Did you know that if you add Subchapter V filings back into Chapter XX rebuilding the data the way it looked before 2020 the current bankruptcy picture today lands almost exactly in Great Financial Crisis territory Look at the comparison Great Financial Crisis totals 2008: 1000011000 2009: 1400016000 (the peak) 2010: 1200013000 Reconstructed 20232025 totals (Chapter XX + Subchapter V) 2023: 9441 2024: 11531 2025: 1130011500 Once you restore Subchapter V to where it used to sit the current cycle stops looking normal and starts looking a whole lot like the late 2000s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1997701812112028155)  2025-12-07T16:16Z 68.2K followers, 9518 engagements


"Why is gas prices down everybody 🧠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1998079543970795962)  2025-12-08T17:17Z 68.2K followers, 20K engagements


"The XX Year Is Calling the Bluff And What the Market Sees That Policy Cant Smooth Over The XX year is the bond markets way of pricing the next decade. Not the next CPI print not the next rate announcement but the broader arc of where the economy is heading. It reflects two things at once investors expect short term rates to average out over time and much extra compensation they want for tying up capital in a world that feels uncertain. So when the XX year drifts above Fed Funds its not saying rates are being cut so yields should fall. Its the market hinting that something deeper is pulling on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1998098774363635845)  2025-12-08T18:34Z 68.2K followers, 29K engagements


"Ripples acquisition of GTreasury shows exactly what its really building not a payments app but the backbone of how global money will move in the next decade. GTreasury is the system that corporate CFOs and treasury teams use to manage cash payments and risk across hundreds of banks every day. Its where the worlds largest companies decide what to do with trillions of dollars in liquidity. By plugging Ripples rails its new stablecoin (RLUSD) and tokenized assets directly into that platform Ripple just stepped inside the financial control room not as an outsider selling blockchain but as the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978859829901795404)  2025-10-16T16:25Z 67.9K followers, 19.3K engagements


"What the S&P And Private Credit Split is Really Saying The S&P XXX (mega cap rate sensitive growth) has kept grinding higher while private credit proxies like Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL) Ares Capital (ARCC) and Blue Owl (OWL) have rolled over hard. For most of the last two years they moved broadly together. That divergence is the tell. Were shifting from a rates regime to a credit quality regime. Why private credit is slumping while the S&P rallies Income compression arrives first. BDCs and direct lending funds boomed in higher for longer: floating rate loans reset up quickly while much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1982177495328997678)  2025-10-25T20:08Z 68.1K followers, 11.8K engagements


"A Market Held Hostage And Why Pending Sales Are Stuck at XX Year Lows This chart makes something obvious that headlines still dance around: the housing market isnt coolingits stuck. Pending home sales are sitting near the lowest levels in almost XX years and running close to XX% below what used to be normal. And its not a quick dip or a temporary shock. The line has been pinned down here for nearly two years. Thats the signature of a market where the problem isnt demand or supply in isolation but more so a breakdown in the ability of buyers and sellers to meet at the same price. For most of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1993813810885333212)  2025-11-26T22:47Z 68.1K followers, 9547 engagements


"What I Found After Digging Into the Real Research on Deflation After working through the most serious research on deflation and the frameworks central bankers actually rely on one thing becomes impossible to ignoredeflation isnt about CPI going down. Its about balance sheets cracking under the weight of debt. Once you shift from prices to debt versus debtor incomes the U.S. and global picture makes far more sense. Deflation Starts When Debt And Debtor Prices Diverge The research from Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria rebuilds Irving Fishers old idea for the modern worlddeflation begins when the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1994881875026821561)  2025-11-29T21:31Z 68.1K followers, 19.4K engagements


"What Japans X Year at X% Is Really Telling Us Japans X year yield hitting X% might look unremarkable to anyone used to U.S. or European rates. But in Japan that number is a siren. Its the market saying for the first time since 2008 that short term yen money is no longer free. For decades Japan was the global anchor of zero: zero policy rate zero bond yield zero cost to borrow yen. It made the country the worlds quiet funding machine. When the X year lifts to X% its the clearest signal yet that this long standing equilibrium is breaking. And its not happening in a vacuum. Markets are pricing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1995309122732929097)  2025-12-01T01:49Z 67.9K followers, 116K engagements


"When Leverage Meets Reality And The Real Story Behind Bitcoins Sudden Drop This kind of straight down move almost never comes from some sudden revelation about Bitcoin itself. Its what happens when a heavily leveraged market runs into a shift in the macro weather. The drop wasnt about fundamentals it was the structure underneath the price giving out. For weeks the market was tilted one way. Traders were leaning long funding was rich and the whole space was positioned for the idea that the Fed was about to turn friendlier and liquidity was right around the corner. When positioning gets that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1995315248018894890)  2025-12-01T02:13Z 67.4K followers, 178.5K engagements


"Japans XX Year Is Ringing An Alarm Bell And Heres What It Really Means Japans XX year yield pushing toward XXX% in Japan is a seismic shift. For the better part of XX years that bond wasnt a market instrument it was a policy prop. The BoJ pinned it near zero bought most of the market and treated the yield as more of a message than a price. Now its acting like a real bond again. And this sudden climb is the market saying you cant hold back the tide forever. Inflation has stuck around. Japans debt load is enormous. And with the BoJ stepping back from yield curve control investors are finally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1995352333123788954)  2025-12-01T04:40Z 67.8K followers, 194.9K engagements


"Youre making this sound far cleaner and more predictable than it actually is. The idea that an XX to XX year glide path is basically 9095% equities negligible fees and guaranteed real returns just doesnt match how these programs work in practice. The long run averages youre pulling from hide whole stretches full childhood to adulthood stretches where real returns were flat or negative and that matters when were talking about a single XX year window not a XX year backtest. Inflation isnt some polite X% line either. When prices move the way they have in the last five years even strong nominal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996099815076151487)  2025-12-03T06:10Z 68K followers, XXX engagements


"GM spun off its parts division which was Delphi where his pension sat. Years after he retired Delphi went bankrupt and the salaried workers pension plan was badly underfunded. Hourly workers had a deal for GM to top up their pensions but salaried workers like Ed didnt so when PBGC took the plan over he lost his pension and his health coverage along with it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996217585474347275)  2025-12-03T13:58Z 67.8K followers, XXX engagements


"The First Crack You Cant Ignore: ADP Just Showed Us Where the Slowdown Really Lives The headline number from ADP is roughprivate payrolls fell by 32000 in November. Thats not the kind of thing you can wave away as noise when you look at how the losses are distributed. The real story sits underneath and its a lot more recessionflavored than people want to admit. The most troubling piece is what happened to small businesses. They didnt just slow hiring they shed 120000 jobs. And the smallest firms (119 employees) alone cut 46000. When tiny companies retreat like this it usually means two"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996250996000067753)  2025-12-03T16:11Z 68K followers, 25.5K engagements


"Bitcoin Is Screaming And M2 Velocity Is Whispering Something Else A taker buy/sell ratio around XXXX basically means the aggressive side of the market is hitting buy. On the surface that looks powerful. But this ratio tends to spike when positioning is already crowded. It measures urgency not depth. And in crypto urgency is usually leveragenot slow steady accumulation. It feels bullish. But these are exactly the kinds of readings that show up when a market is stretched not necessarily when its healthy. And then theres M2 velocity which tells a very different story Let me explain M2 velocity."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996360989680320902)  2025-12-03T23:28Z 67.9K followers, 33.1K engagements


"COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE VALUES MUNICIPALITY COMMERCIAL PROPERTY TAX REVENUES HIKE IN MUNICIPALITY RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996441433872679421)  2025-12-04T04:48Z 68.1K followers, 16.2K engagements


"Coming To Every City and Town Near You"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996450215877062967)  2025-12-04T05:23Z 67.9K followers, 22.3K engagements


"Inflation Expectations Are Falling But Its the Economy Signaling Trouble Not the Fed Winning The first thing these charts reveal is how deeply inflation expectations have become tied to politics. Republicans are sitting near XX% Democrats are still up around X% and independents fall somewhere in between. When a gap this wide opens up youre not looking at a pure read on the economy anymore youre looking at how different groups feel about the country the administration and the future. Inflation becomes a proxy for trust frustration or optimism depending on who you ask. But the more interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996992248165154818)  2025-12-05T17:17Z 67.9K followers, 8289 engagements


"@Paco3gar Keep an eye on investment grade bonds LQD junk bonds JNK short term high yield SHYG and senior loans BKLN and use simple ratios like high yield HYG versus Treasuries IEF to spot when spreads start widening"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1997090364432253132)  2025-12-05T23:47Z 68K followers, XXX engagements


"Silvers Signal: Why a Falling Gold Ratio Is Whispering Deflation Ahead The gold to silver ratio has been drifting lower for years and now its pressing into the bottom of that long channel XX to XX to now basically XX. Whenever a chart grinds lower like this especially over a multi year stretch it usually means the market is slowly letting go of a narrative. In this case its letting go of golds panic premium. Gold is the metal people grab when theyre afraid of inflation currency problems or policy mistakes. Silver is part monetary too but its much more tied to actual industrial demand. So when"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1994799833106771980)  2025-11-29T16:05Z 68.1K followers, 52.1K engagements


"A Clearer Read on What SOFR Is Telling Us Right Now The SOFR spike isnt random and it isnt exotic. Its the repo market flashing that short term dollar liquidity is getting tight again. Fed funds looks calm because it reflects banks sitting on reserves. SOFR moves because thats where the people who actually need overnight cashdealers funding Treasuries levered funds rolling positions are forced to pay up when the system gets pinched. QT has been draining reserves Treasury supply has been heavy and balance sheet space hasnt magically grown. So when a little pressure hits like month end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1995228390278693260)  2025-11-30T20:28Z 68.1K followers, 23.1K engagements


"The Day Netflix Became the New Hollywood Netflix is buying Warner Bros. Discovery for $XX billion. They are not buying all of WBD its taking the crown jewelsWarner Bros. studios HBO HBO Max DC and the entire premium content engine. The old school cable networks the legacy bundle the melting ice cube Those get spun off into a separate public company before the deal closes. Netflix gets the future. Someone else gets the past. Why Now And Why This Price The timing says everything. Streaming is no longer a land grab its consolidation season. Growth has slowed costs have ballooned and only a few"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996954179823194195)  2025-12-05T14:45Z 68.1K followers, 15.2K engagements


"(1/2) Empires Workshop Crude Interventions and the New Struggle for Venezuela: U.S. China Russia and the Fight to Lock Down the Hemisphere Greg Grandins Empires Workshop argued that Latin America was the testing ground where Washington refined the tools of modern empire with sanctions covert wars regime destabilization and the ability to fold raw power into the language of democracy. Garry Leechs Crude Interventions showed how U.S. foreign policy cannot be separated from oil with military campaigns and financial pressure used to guarantee access to hydrocarbons and maintain the global dollar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1964139345452929028)  2025-09-06T01:31Z 68.1K followers, 73.8K engagements


"That $X trillion sitting in money market funds is a reflection of investor psychology. Historically when the market mood turns recessionary capital doesnt immediately rotate into risk assets; it creeps along the safety spectrum guided by fear confidence and the credibility of the Feds next move. When the economy weakens and rates start to fall investors first instinct is safety. Thats why in every downturn from the dot com bust to the Great Financial Crisis and the 2020 pandemic shock the first destination for cash was short term Treasuries and government money market funds not stocks or real"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1981173040391045389)  2025-10-23T01:37Z 68.1K followers, 30.3K engagements


"Why I Think Michael Burry Is Shutting Down Scion Now Lets put a few things togetherBurrys liquidation letter his depreciation thread on the hyperscalers and his me then me now Big Short meme and hes basically spelling out one story. He thinks were in an earnings inflated AI driven bubble that a value investor cant sit inside without eventually getting crushed. In the letter he says it plainly My estimation of value in securities is not now and has not been for some time in sync with the markets. Thats not a Im tired of running money line. Thats a man saying I cant reconcile what I see in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1988823273287635403)  2025-11-13T04:16Z 68.1K followers, 2.3M engagements


"Japan May Be the First Domino And The U.S. Should Pay Attention Japan is quietly stepping out of the role it played for thirty years: the worlds source of near free money. When Japanese rates were pinned at zero their pension funds insurers and banks had no choice but to send money abroad. That steady flow kept global borrowing costs lower than they shouldve been especially in the U.S. Now that Japan finally pays a real return at home that flow slows. And the reason yields are rising isnt because Japan is booming its because inflation lingered the currency weakened deficits grew and the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1990638536127635696)  2025-11-18T04:29Z 68.1K followers, 595K engagements


"When Nvidias Rally Runs Into the Jobs Report What makes that $900B round trip in NVDA interesting is that it lines up almost perfectly with a shift in the macro not anything about Nvidias business. The first leg up is easy to explainblow out earnings guidance still strong everyone underweight the name scrambles to buy. Thats your +$450B positioning and FOMO doing what they always do around a flagship story stock. The second leg the give back starts once the jobs report lands and people actually process what it means. The data showed a labor market clearly losing momentum with softer hiring"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1991596074293719049)  2025-11-20T19:54Z 68.1K followers, 37.9K engagements


"The Real Game Behind the Juan Hernndez Pardon: Power Pressure and the New Monroe Doctrine Juan Orlando Hernndez wasnt pardoned for some technicality or grey zone offense. He was convicted in the U.S. for moving enormous volumes of cocaine toward the United States taking cartel money and using the Honduran police and military to protect those routes. Over XXX tons of U.S. bound cocaine moved under his watch. He took millions in bribes from groups like the Sinaloa cartel and Honduran gangs. And he weaponized state institutions to keep that machine running. Thats why he got XX years. So a pardon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1995867759884857851)  2025-12-02T14:48Z 68.1K followers, 565.3K engagements


"The Yen Carry Isnt Dead It Just Went Underground The BIS series only tells you about banks yen denominated cross border loans. That used to be a decent proxy for the classic carry trade back in the 2000s borrow yen in cash buy something with a higher yield. But that world died with the GFC. Not because carry disappeared but because the plumbing changed. Post 2008 most of the real yen funded activity stopped running through bank balance sheets and started running through derivatives desks hedge funds systematic strategies and cross currency swaps. None of that shows up in this chart. So when"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996296299159970037)  2025-12-03T19:11Z 68.2K followers, 34.9K engagements


"The IMFs Stablecoin Warning Is Really a Roadmap for the Future of Money Once you read past the surface optimism the IMF paper is making a straightforward point that stablecoins arent growing because people suddenly fell in love with crypto theyre growing because the global payments system is slow fragmented and expensive. And people are quietly opting out of that friction. The IMF lays out the math. The two largest stablecoins have tripled in size since 2023 reaching a combined $XXX billion with $XX trillion in trading volume in 2024. Asia now processes more stablecoin activity than North"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996673039837061257)  2025-12-04T20:08Z 68.1K followers, 57.4K engagements


"A Fourth Turning in Real Time: What the Dollars Collapse in Buying Power Really Signals The top panel shows what $XXX from 1792 looks like today adjusted for inflation. It climbs almost vertically in the modern era. The bottom panel flips it to how much buying power that same $XXX has over time. It rises and falls a bit in the early Republic but after the creation of the Fed the Gold Reserve Act the world wars and finally the Nixon shock its a long slide toward zero. So the insinuation isnt just inflation bad. Its that every time the U.S. has faced a big stress event like a war depression"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996693796449312795)  2025-12-04T21:31Z 68.1K followers, 35.5K engagements


"@cs_08_12 Lots of things can happen in the next 5-10 years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996923987885015408)  2025-12-05T12:45Z 68.2K followers, 2956 engagements


"The Guidance Mirage And Why Corporate Optimism Is Rising While the Economy Quietly Breaks This chart makes it look like companies are thriving again with more S&P XXX firms raising earnings guidance climbing back toward levels we saw during periods of real strength. But guidance isnt the economy. Its a forecast. And forecasts just like actuarial assumptions are built on models incentives and a lot of wishful thinking. Thats why charts like this can be so deceiving. Companies dont start with neutral expectations they start with lowballed numbers they know they can beat. They update guidance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1997010506163314966)  2025-12-05T18:29Z 68.1K followers, 5868 engagements


"When the Edges Crack First And What This Spike in Small Cap Shorts Is Signaling A median Russell 2000 stock sitting at roughly XXX% short interest is the market pointing toward the part of the economy thats most exposed when things tighten up. Small cap companies usually run with thinner margins more floating rate debt and a lot less breathing room. When credit gets harder or demand softens theyre the ones who feel it first. So you end up with this dynamic where investors hide out in mega cap names with fortress balance sheets and use small caps as the hedge. Some of the short interest is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1997489901961408586)  2025-12-07T02:14Z 68.2K followers, 12.3K engagements


"The Fed Is Shrinking Stocks Have Been Soaring And Heres Why The Feds balance sheet has been shrinking for three years down roughly XX% while the S&P XXX has climbed more than 80%. If you came of age in the post GFC world where stocks only go up when the Fed prints this looks impossible. But the chart isnt breaking the rules. Its revealing that the rule people believed in was never that simple. QE adds liquidity yes. But markets dont move mechanically they move on expectations on changes in the cost of money and on how investors imagine the next year will look compared to the last. Over this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1997719804489109975)  2025-12-07T17:28Z 68.2K followers, 87.5K engagements


"I see where youre coming from on the long end ultimately settling around growth and inflation and theres a lot of truth in that. The only place I start to wonder is what happens if we really do slide into a deflationary environment while balance sheet space stays tight. Between SLR and eSLR constraints duration limits and a generally more cautious regulatory backdrop banks just dont seem to have the same ability to take down supply that they used to which is why regulators are already planning to ease eSLR in 2026. And back in 200809 when deflation fears were front and center a big part of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1998059271284474080)  2025-12-08T15:57Z 68.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Sub V filings used to be included into Chapter XX bankruptcys prior to 2020 Everyone look into the total Chapter XX bankruptcys year by year during the Great Financial Crisis for 200820092010. Then get the Chapter XX bankruptcys for past X years and add back the Sub V filings for the past X years like it used to be and tell me what you see for 2023 2024 and 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1998127841137844629)  2025-12-08T20:29Z 68.2K followers, 11.4K engagements


"A Financial Head Start or a Financial Capture On the surface Invest America is pitched as a bipartisan effort to give kids a financial head start with tax advantaged accounts from birth a $1000 federal deposit for babies born 20252028 and a $6.25B philanthropic boost that seeds XX million older children with $XXX. But if you look at it with a skeptical eye its also the creation of a huge new pipeline that pushes families into the financial system from day one. It isnt just about helping kids build wealth its about expanding the base of long duration savers who will automatically be buying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996086947811373221)  2025-12-03T05:19Z 68.2K followers, 264.1K engagements


"This video was sent to me Im not even sure who made it but the claim is that Trumps new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve order is basically the modern version of the 1933 gold play setting up a future revaluation of Bitcoin and gold while the dollar weakens. Im not totally convinced but its an interesting angle. What do you all think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996787093230490067)  2025-12-05T03:41Z 68.2K followers, 122.1K engagements


"The Bank of England Knows Whats Coming If you read this Financial Stability Report the way they want you to read it everything looks steady. The Bank of England keeps repeating the same familiar phrases that they are resilient well capitalized with manageable risks. Its the usual central bank posturecalm voice steady hands nothing to see here. But once you slow down and sit with the details you start to feel the tension in the edges. The report is built around reassurance yet the numbers the caveats and the stress scenarios tell a quieter more anxious story. Theyre not panicking but theyre"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996842535163940937)  2025-12-05T07:22Z 68.2K followers, 92.9K engagements


"Inside The U.S. National Security Strategy When you sit with the 2025 National Security Strategy what stands out isnt the confident tone its the urgency underneath it. The whole thing reads like a country bracing for a decade that wont look anything like the last one. Theres a steady almost nervous drumbeateconomic strength industrial capacity and technological control arent luxuries anymore; theyre the foundations of national survival. And whenever a government starts calling domestic production supply chains and social cohesion security issues its signaling that it expects pressure coming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1996970776373735933)  2025-12-05T15:51Z 68.2K followers, 33.7K engagements


"The Chart That Explains Why Regulators Are Quietly Rearranging the Safety Nets This chart shows cash as a share of total assets for small banks and big banks over the last 15+ years. When those lines rise banks have slack. When they fall the system is running tighter. What stands out now is how both groups have drifted back toward the leaner levels we saw before COVID. Big banks especially have watched their cash cushions fade as the cycle shifted rates stayed high and deposits reshuffled. Small banks arent collapsing but theyre not sitting on excess liquidity either and for them running with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1998129918962454690)  2025-12-08T20:37Z 68.2K followers, 13.1K engagements