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# ![@onechancefreedm Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1448432122881101826.png) @onechancefreedm EndGame Macro

The US economy is showing signs of stress, with indicators such as layoff announcements, declining home-builder confidence, and a shrinking prime-age workforce. Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with rising conflicts between the US and Iran, and Israel, and a potential shift in global liquidity. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady is seen as a strategic move to resist premature easing and maintain optionality for future policy actions.

### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1448432122881101826/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXXXX +26%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +22%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +576%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +77,998%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1448432122881101826/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX +46%
- X Month XXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXX +365%
- X Year XXXXX +1,263%

### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1448432122881101826/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXXX +5.80%
- X Month XXXXXX +17%
- X Months XXXXXX +172%
- X Year XXXXXX +15,925%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1448432122881101826/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/influence)
---

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #2255 [countries](/list/countries)  XXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies)  XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[fed](/topic/fed) #33, [money](/topic/money) #2994, [china](/topic/china) #1059, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) 0.54%, [debt](/topic/debt) #214, [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet) #981, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #161, [over the](/topic/over-the) #516, [drops](/topic/drops) #363, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #1664

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@lukegromen](/creator/undefined) [@d3_deflation](/creator/undefined) [@santiagoaufund](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@0xmrmasa88](/creator/undefined) [@pythiaatdelphi](/creator/undefined) [@tozgokmen](/creator/undefined) [@georgegammon](/creator/undefined) [@m3melody](/creator/undefined) [@agratefulape](/creator/undefined) [@dimartinobooth](/creator/undefined) [@raoulgmi](/creator/undefined) [@robinjbrooks](/creator/undefined) [@lukekni40895721](/creator/undefined) [@gkappacapital](/creator/undefined) [@santiag78758327](/creator/undefined) [@dowdedward](/creator/undefined) [@think__primal](/creator/undefined) [@mcuban](/creator/undefined) [@peterschiff](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/ethereum) [Credit Suisse Group (CS)](/topic/credit-suisse)
### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::1448432122881101826/posts)
---
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Im excited to share that a guest post I wrote on the U.S. housing market was just published in The Pomp Letter. It breaks down the current state of the economy and where the housing market goes from here. Immense thanks to @APompliano for the opportunity to share this analysis with his audience. You can read it now on The Pomp Letter:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979222312948846840) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T16:25Z 55.1K followers, 8078 engagements


"Golds surge past $4100 is the market screaming that something big is breaking beneath the surface. You dont see gold rally this hard while oil drops the dollar holds steady and long term Treasury yields fall unless the system is quietly shifting into crisis prevention mode. Historically this kind of setup has only happened during major turning points late 1979 when the U.S. lost control of inflation and faith in the dollar cracked in 2008 when the credit system forced central banks into full blown balance sheet expansion and again in early 2020 when the Fed had to step in to stop a liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977927017505894553) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T02:38Z 55.1K followers, 133.1K engagements


"Emerging market and commodity linked currencies are rolling over as dollar funding tightens forcing countries to scramble for access to U.S. liquidity. Argentina just secured a $XX billion package half from a U.S. Treasury swap line half from private sector financing and now South Korea is essentially asking for the same deal. But this isnt a case of everyone wants a bailout. Its everyone needs dollars and Washington is deciding who gets them on what terms and at what geopolitical cost. The U.S. isnt flooding the world with easy money anymore. Instead its using surgical interventions using"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978771352472408385) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T10:33Z 55.1K followers, 59.8K engagements


"What youre missing is that STRC isnt being priced like JPM preferreds because theres no real collateral or institutional backstop. That XX% yield is a premium for uncertainty. Holders have no claim on MSTRs Bitcoin just faith that the collateral will keep appreciating. Thats not fixed income its leveraged belief disguised as yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978257395156435233) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T00:31Z 54.3K followers, 1832 engagements


"The Market That Forgot How to Breathe: How Passive Flows and Demographics Rewired Capitalism At first glance the chart looks like a portrait of market sanity XX years of S&P XXX returns tracking almost perfectly with earnings growth and dividend yield. But that neat symmetry conceals a deeper structural shift where the markets center of gravity has moved from fundamentals to flows from human judgment to demographic mechanics. Since 2000 the financial system has been quietly reshaped by the convergence of two forces the mass retirement savings of the Boomer generation and the rise of passive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978866045562818661) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T16:50Z 55.1K followers, 21.6K engagements


"The Dollars Chokehold and Golds Silent Counterattack What were witnessing right now is the financial equivalent of global suffocation. The long end of the U.S. yield curve is flattening with 5s/30s near XXX bps even as markets price in Fed cuts. Thats a collateral squeeze. When the dollar strengthens and Treasuries rally at the same time it signals a worldwide scramble for pristine USD assets to roll funding and meet margin calls. The mix of quantitative tightening record Treasury issuance a refilling Treasury General Account and the drawdown of the Feds RRP facility has drained liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976289417519079923) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-09T14:11Z 55K followers, 49.9K engagements


"This is the classic late cycle K shaped U.S. economy in one picture. The sectors that are inherently rate sensitive and cyclical like manufacturing construction transport/logistics are already in recessionary terrain while the headline is being propped up by inelastic or policy insulated services (healthcare state & local government) accounting heavy real estate and intangible rich tech/professional services. That mix can keep GDP looking okay even as the parts of the economy that set the next cycles productivity and jobs deteriorate. Two measurement quirks matter. Real estate here is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1971610912537645088) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-09-26T16:20Z 54.7K followers, 32.1K engagements


"Whats happening right now is the system itself starting to strain. The real problem is that the Fed Treasury and banking system are now working against each other. The Treasury keeps issuing massive amounts of new debt the Fed is still draining reserves through quantitative tightening and banks are already overloaded with low yield assets from the last few years. Put those together and youve got a system running out of balance sheet space and liquidity at the same time. Thats why the markets behavior feels off the plumbing of the dollar system is clogging up. The spike in SOFR regional banks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978884810589299108) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T18:04Z 55.1K followers, 64.7K engagements


"JOLTS: Cooler Not Cold And What 7.2M Openings Really Means Job openings held at XXX million in August hires and total separations both came in around XXX million quits slipped to XXX million and layoffs stayed low at XXX million. That looks dovish with less churn fewer postings softer wage pressure. But the details tell a more complicated story. Leisure and hospitality the highest churn sector was a big driver of the cooling. Quits there fell sharply even as openings rose. When a giant churn machine slows the national quits rate comes down even if other sectors remain steady. Health care"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1973051158953341183) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-09-30T15:43Z 54.1K followers, 15.4K engagements


"What youre seeing is a full system de-risking that used crypto as the pressure release valve. The day started with a global growth scare with trade war headlines oil falling off a cliff long bond yields sliding and that flips every risk model from carry to cut. In equities and bonds that shows up as VAR driven de-leveraging; in crypto it shows up louder and faster because the market is 24/7 cross margin and built on perpetuals. Once prices gap lower high open interest meets thin liquidity funding turns collateral values shrink and the forced selling engine takes over where longs are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976819161385800099) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T01:16Z 55.1K followers, 64.2K engagements


"I didnt include the tech and AI angle because the Beige Books lens is still rooted in observable business conditions not productivity diffusion so the disinflationary effects of AI arent yet visible in their qualitative data. The Feds district reports reflect what firms feel like slower hiring weaker pricing power tighter margins and not the hidden output boost from automation. In other words AI driven disinflation is real but lagging in the official narrative which is why its distorting the perception of stability thats actually masking underlying deflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978861566784053322) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T16:32Z 55K followers, XXX engagements


"The X year Treasury yield is like the bond markets heartbeat it moves ahead of the Fed and often signals where policy has to go not where policymakers want to go. When it drops this sharply its the market screaming that conditions are tightening faster than the Fed realizes. Traders are starting to price in rate cuts because they see something softening under the surface whether its slowing credit creation rising unemployment signals or liquidity getting pulled out of the system. The Fed tends to react with a lag but the X year doesnt wait; it reprices the future instantly. The key nuance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978232029205389314) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T22:50Z 55.1K followers, 62.2K engagements


"If Trump really wanted to move fast to cut Americas dependence on China he wouldnt wait for Congress hed use the emergency powers already on the books. The first step would be declaring an economic national emergency tied to Chinas control of critical supply chains like shipping semiconductors and the power grid. That unlocks the International Emergency Economic Powers Act which lets Treasury and Commerce immediately block or unwind Chinese ownership in ports data centers and logistics firms and ban U.S. companies from doing business with PRC linked tech or defense firms. Its the legal master"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978471411522953510) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T14:41Z 55.1K followers, 42.1K engagements


"Global liquidity is ticking up again where central banks Treasuries and major financial institutions are quietly adding support but that flow isnt circulating through the real economy. Its getting trapped in the plumbing absorbed by an enormous refinancing wave. Between late 2025 and 2027 roughly $2428 trillion in debt that includes government commercial real estate and corporate needs to be rolled over at higher rates. That means much of the new liquidity isnt stimulating growth; its being recycled just to keep the system solvent. The Treasury market primary dealers and large banks are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975877971723366767) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-08T10:56Z 55.1K followers, 47.1K engagements


"We suffer more in imagination than in reality. - Seneca Senecas words cut straight to the core of modern life. Most people are not undone by real hardship but by the endless loops of imagined pain they play in their own minds. We relive mistakes that no longer exist invent problems that havent arrived and interpret silence as judgment. The mind becomes its own tormentor creating storms that reality never brings. Every anxious thought every what if every mental rehearsal of disaster drains energy that could be spent actually living growing or creating. This is what makes Senecas insight so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976852395729535083) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T03:28Z 55K followers, 24.4K engagements


"The Quiet Transformation Behind QT Quantitative tightening never actually reached the long end of the curve. Since 2022 the Fed hasnt been meaningfully reducing its holdings of XX year and longer Treasuries the red line keeps climbing. The so called balance sheet reduction came almost entirely from the short end of bills and notes under one year shown by the blue line collapsing. That distinction matters more than most people realize. By keeping its long duration holdings intact the Fed quietly prevented the true yield curve repricing that real QT wouldve caused. The private sector was never"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978277010913771700) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T01:49Z 55.1K followers, 40.6K engagements


"I think the real question is sustainability. A XX% cumulative pref only works if the issuer can actually keep funding at that level without eroding balance sheet flexibility. The variable rate anchored around $XXX line helps maintain price optics but it doesnt eliminate credit or duration risk it just masks it in stability until stress shows up. Borrowing at XX% to chase a higher compounding asset like BTC might make sense if that return stream holds but in a tightening or liquidity constrained environment leverage magnifies the downside faster than it compounds the upside. The structure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978203071940526452) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T20:55Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"Everything we hear is an opinion not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective not the truth. - Marcus Aurelius Marcus Aurelius was warning us that most of what we take in like what we read watch and believe isnt pure truth. Its filtered through someones perspective shaped by their emotions incentives and biases. And today thats more relevant than ever. We live in a world where everything is politicized where every headline has a motive and every story is crafted to pull you toward a side. Its not just happening by accident its designed that way. The system feeds on attention outrage and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978303143847821411) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T03:33Z 55K followers, 12.5K engagements


"When Oil Prices Signal Deflation Not Relief Oils crash today is about collapsing confidence in global demand. Trumps threat to impose XXX% tariffs on China sent an immediate shockwave through the market because it forces traders to imagine a world where trade grinds to a halt. When the two largest economies start threatening full scale economic warfare energy traders see fewer factories humming fewer ships moving goods and fewer consumers spending. Thats why oil fell off a cliff. This is deflationary fear the kind that suggests the global economy is slowing faster than supply can adjust. What"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976765959126851852) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T21:45Z 55.1K followers, 56.3K engagements


"@ezkappdo @grok Evan you are just not there yet. At some point you will be. And I mean that in the nicest way possible so dont take offense to it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978534799309525492) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T18:53Z 54.9K followers, XXX engagements


"What Record Repossessions Reveal About Americas Hidden Credit Crisis Whats happening in the auto market right now is the unraveling of one of the most overextended segments of consumer credit in the U.S. economy. Auto loans have ballooned into a $XXX trillion market second only to mortgages and the stress is finally breaking through the surface. More than X% of all car loans are now delinquent the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. And for subprime borrowers delinquency rates are exploding up XX% year over year according to Experian. Gen Z borrowers are getting hit hardest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975657052992077834) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-07T20:18Z 55.1K followers, 89.6K engagements


"Why the VIX Is Rising With Stocks Right Now The VIX is often called the fear index but thats only half the story. It measures implied volatility on S&P options both puts and calls so demand on either side of the market can push it higher. What were seeing now is a surge in upside call buying. Investors who were underweight equities through the summer rally are scrambling to catch up or hedge ahead of catalysts and theyre doing it through calls. That demand drives up implied volatility on the right tail which feeds directly into the VIX calculation. Heres how it works mechanically. When"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1968767710642291173) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-09-18T20:02Z 54.1K followers, 23.5K engagements


"@LukeGromen Very interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978660533323620843) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T03:13Z 55.1K followers, 2732 engagements


"When volatility suddenly spikes like this risk models used by hedge funds and big institutions called value at risk or VAR models automatically tell them to cut exposure. Once those models trip the selling becomes mechanical programs start dumping assets to stay within risk limits. Thats what he means by nothing he says can prevent program selling. Its not emotion driven selling; its algorithmic risk control. Where hes right is that once this process starts it feeds on itself. The higher the volatility the more these systems sell which creates even more volatility. But Id add that catalysts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976811680349737391) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T00:46Z 55.1K followers, 131.6K engagements


"The 2s10s curve has hit a make or break zone around XX basis points. That level might not sound like much but its where the current steepening trend either proves its real or gives way to a fake out. The spread has been widening for months as traders bet the Fed will eventually have to cut rates while long end yields stay sticky from heavy Treasury issuance and term-premium pressure. If the spread holds above roughly XXXX and keeps grinding toward XXXX or XXXX it confirms a durable bull steepener meaning front end yields are falling faster than long end ones because the market is bracing for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978445651353440543) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T12:59Z 55K followers, 17.1K engagements


"The ultra long U.S. Treasury bond coming within inches of a golden cross is signaling that the worlds largest bond market is beginning to price in the end of the tightening era. When long duration Treasuries start to base and push higher it means investors no longer see inflation as the dominant threat; they see slowing growth and more rate cuts on the horizon. The markets whispering what central banks arent ready to say out loud that the cycle has turned. The XX% drop in gasoline prices year over year adds more proof that this shift is about the real economy. Gasoline is one of the cleanest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978076533735530887) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T12:32Z 55.1K followers, 50.1K engagements


"Futures are popping because the weekend narrative moved from escalation to managed de-escalation. When traders went home Friday they were hedged for a tariff spiral and rare earth retaliation; by Sunday the messaging out of Washington and Beijing sounded like a pause button. That shift forces positioning to adjust first where shorts cover vol sellers re-engage and dealers who were long gamma into the drop help mechanically lift prices on the open. Add in the fact that futures are thin on Sunday night and small flows push indices quickly. Under the surface the macro math also leans pro rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977524971766272281) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T00:01Z 54.8K followers, 33.6K engagements


"@btcpleb2024 Why am I wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978206655142617145) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T21:09Z 54K followers, XXX engagements


"@orangeyield @LukeKni40895721 Would a global recession/depression do that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978263786306842686) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T00:56Z 54.1K followers, XX engagements


"Thats the problem assuming theyll pay is the same as assuming they can. The whole setup only works while confidence liquidity and Bitcoins price stay strong. But if unemployment rises and economy slows people with dollar denominated debts will start liquidating whatever they can including Bitcoin just to make payments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978259686341120372) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T00:40Z 54.1K followers, XX engagements


"Why Youre Suddenly Seeing So Many High Income Investments When you start seeing a flood of new investments promising steady income or unusually high yields its a sign of where we are in the cycle. These products usually appear when companies sense that money is about to get tighter. If they think growth is slowing credit is about to dry up and traditional lenders are getting pickier they rush to raise cash while the window is still open. And they do it in a form that looks safe and flexible something that feels like income but acts more like unsecured funding. The timing makes sense. After a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978206428398817721) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T21:09Z 55.1K followers, 17.4K engagements


"Regional bank stocks are sliding again shows that the market is waking up to the underlying fragility in their balance sheets. When the X year yield falls this fast it usually means investors see a shift from inflation risk to credit risk. Thats bad news for smaller and mid sized banks because theyre heavily exposed to commercial real estate carry a lot of low yielding assets from the zero rate era and have to fund themselves in a much tighter environment now that emergency facilities like the Feds BTFP have expired. These banks are getting squeezed from both sides. Deposit costs are rising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978877234057265565) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T17:34Z 55.1K followers, 172.4K engagements


"Right now the average American household has about $12000 in credit card debt and interest rates are sitting around XX% to 24%. That means people are paying a shocking amount of money every month just to cover interest not even the debt itself. At those rates someone with $12000 in debt is paying roughly $XXX to $XXX every month in interest alone. Thats about $2700 to $3000 a year just to keep their balance from growing. And in high debt states like California Texas Florida and Hawaii where balances are closer to $13000 to $15000 people could be paying $XXX or more a month or well over $3500"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975296764090388816) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-06T20:27Z 55.1K followers, 44K engagements


"The stability mechanism here isnt driven by short duration assets or collateral like a real money market fund; its driven by the yield itself. The coupon is designed to flex to keep the price near $XXX which means that when risk premia rise or liquidity tightens the cost of capital to the issuer automatically increases. In calm markets that creates the illusion of safety; in stressed ones it can turn into a reflexive cycle where the very mechanism meant to stabilize the price accelerates strain on the balance sheet. The appeal of that constant price narrative is exactly the point its"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978209718498975863) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T21:22Z 54K followers, XXX engagements


"It depends on which direction the curve is moving from. When short rates stay pinned near the Feds policy rate but long yields fall faster the spread between them actually widens thats a bull steepener. The curve only flattens when short term yields rise relative to long ones or when both fall but the front end drops faster which usually happens during a full blown panic when the market expects emergency cuts. Right now the short ends barely moving while the 10s and 30s are coming down more thats the early phase of a bull steepener. Its the bond market starting to price in slower growth and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977894071084675446) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T00:27Z 55K followers, XXX engagements


"A record XXX% of subprime auto loans being XX days past due is about the system finally feeling the full effect of the last few years of distortions. When car prices exploded in 202122 lenders stretched loan terms to six and seven years and financed vehicles far above their actual value. That paper looked safe at the time because stimulus money and wage gains were still floating around but as rates jumped and those cushions disappeared the math stopped working. Insurance gas and maintenance all surged too so even borrowers who could technically afford their cars on paper suddenly couldnt in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977522565062021603) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-12T23:51Z 55K followers, 23.7K engagements


"The XX year Treasury is the backbone of the entire financial system the anchor that determines how expensive or cheap money feels across the economy. Its the reference point for almost every long term borrowing cost from mortgages to business loans because it reflects what markets believe about future inflation the Feds policy path and the premium investors demand to lend safely to the U.S. government for a decade. It is the foundation beneath every credit market shaping how risk is priced and how financial gravity works. When the XX year yield drops its usually a sign that investors expect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976775751035695134) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T22:24Z 55.1K followers, 32.5K engagements


"It is key to understand that not all deflation looks like prices falling. The kind were seeing now is monetary and credit deflation where the flow of money and lending in the system is drying up even though certain prices like groceries or healthcare are still high. When credit tightens and liquidity drains it quietly squeezes the economy from the inside out. Businesses feel it first where demand softens margins shrink and it becomes harder to borrow refinance or raise capital. They start cutting costs delaying projects or laying off workers not because prices are collapsing but because real"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978855039805301130) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T16:06Z 55K followers, XXX engagements


"The plumbing of the financial system is flashing signs of strain again but in a very specific part of it. Normally the secured overnight funding rate what big institutions pay to borrow cash overnight using Treasuries as collateral trades slightly below the Feds administered rates (like the fed funds rate or the interest paid on reserves IORB). Thats how its supposed to work: cash is abundant collateral is plentiful and secured funding is cheaper than unsecured lending. Now its flipped. SOFR has pushed above both the fed funds rate and IORB and the spread between SOFR and fed funds has spiked"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978828917713560002) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T14:22Z 55.1K followers, 111.2K engagements


"Im not saying its right or necessarily in the publics best interest but if were being honest to truly compete with China the U.S. will probably have to start operating more like China and that trend is likely to accelerate. Beijing doesnt deal with endless red tape congressional gridlock or the tug of war between state and private power. When it decides something is strategic like rare earths semiconductors shipbuilding and AI it aligns every lever of the state and private sector toward that goal. Banks local governments and corporations move in lockstep because the directive is to build"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978473540392288765) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T14:50Z 55.1K followers, 99.8K engagements


"What were seeing here is a short term rebound in manufacturing sentiment thats more about stabilization than acceleration. The Empire State index jumped back into positive territory at +10.7 after months of contraction with employment also turning up to +6.2 a rare combination that usually marks an inflection after a soft patch. But this isnt a clean recovery story yet. Factories are reporting stronger new orders and shipments but theyre also paying more for inputs and raising prices at the fastest pace since early 2023. Thats not the profile of a sector confidently expanding its margins but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978443515190272012) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T12:51Z 55K followers, 10.8K engagements


"That doesnt line up with what the real economys showing. Freight volumes fuel consumption and consumer activity have all cooled off at the same time those arent the hallmarks of strong demand. Crude can absolutely be influenced by policy or positioning but when both diesel and gasoline are sliding together while shipping and spending slow its more likely signaling demand fatigue than manipulation. The physical datas saying the economys easing off the throttle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978235750035366267) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T23:05Z 54.1K followers, XXX engagements


"PCAOB audits are not the same thing as public on chain verification. MicroStrategys auditors verify the companys financial statements not specific wallet balances or blockchain transactions. They confirm what Saylor reports internally but they dont publish wallet addresses or cryptographic proofs. In fact the PCAOB itself warns that audits of this type dont validate digital asset ownership in the way a true proof of reserves report would. So yes the audits exist but the Bitcoin holdings have never been independently verified on chain by anyone outside the company. Thats the core of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978295359047614647) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T03:02Z 54.3K followers, XXX engagements


"This chart basically says the markets gotten way too comfortable paying a premium for earnings that arent translating into real cash. The S&Ps free cash flow yield what companies generate in actual usable cash after expenses has fallen to XXX% the lowest since right before the 2008 crisis. That means for every $XXX you invest youre getting about $XXXX of real cash while a XX year Treasury pays closer to $X with zero risk. That gap tells you investors are betting heavily on future growth to justify todays prices. The problem is the free cash flow squeeze is structural. Companies are plowing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976830258704736358) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T02:00Z 54.8K followers, 29.7K engagements


"@mmarasciullo How am I framing the Fed as a victim What particular part are you referring to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978807575178056171) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T12:57Z 55.1K followers, XXX engagements


"What were seeing here is what happens when markets get cleared out and then snap back hard once the selling pressure is gone. Fridays $XXXX billion liquidation flushed out most of the leveraged longs wiped out open interest and left the order books paper thin. When the headlines shifted from panic to calm over the weekend there was no one left to sell so even a modest wave of dip buying sent prices ripping higher. Its the classic post liquidation vacuum where shorts rush to cover funding rates swing from negative back toward neutral and market makers hedging their short call positions start"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977526784871600633) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T00:08Z 54.8K followers, 65.7K engagements


"The 2y and 5y Treasury yields are like the bond markets early warning system theyre two of the most sensitive gauges of how investors see the economy interest rates and financial risk evolving over the next few years. The 2y is the most direct reflection of where markets think the Federal Reserves policy is heading. When it drops sharply its the bond markets way of saying that the Fed is going to have to cut rates sooner than they want to admit somethings breaking. The 5y on the other hand captures a blend of growth inflation and credit expectations its a window into how strong the economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979147477778399268) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T11:28Z 55.1K followers, 30.3K engagements


"@LukeKni40895721 The entire model relies on continuous market belief in MSTRs ability to manage its Bitcoin collateral without forced sales dilution or loss of liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978212693661110764) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T21:33Z 53.8K followers, XXX engagements


"The key difference is that STRC isnt backed by collateral at all while MSTRs broader model depends entirely on market faith in the value of its Bitcoin holdings. With banks or property companies leverage is at least supported by tangible income producing assets that can be repod refinanced or sold in a controlled way. STRC holders by contrast have no direct claim on the Bitcoin or any secured backing theyre relying purely on MSTRs continued willingness and ability to pay. That makes the entire structure reflexive and if confidence in Bitcoin or MSTRs balance sheet wavers theres no collateral"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978218363370303747) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T21:56Z 54.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Housing policy just quietly pulled two levers in opposite directions. On one side the new FHA rule change from May basically shut out non permanent residents people like H-1B visa holders from getting FHA loans. They made up only around XX% of the national FHA volume but in certain markets like Florida or parts of Texas they were a real source of marginal demand. That matters because these are often the most rate sensitive buyers at the lower end of the market. When you remove that slice of demand you can crash prices and slow down entry level sales and take away the bidding pressure. At the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978847577710694818) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T15:36Z 55.1K followers, 12.6K engagements


"This is why Powells hint about ending QT matters so much. QT drains reserves out of the system every week and with the reverse repo facility nearly empty theres less margin for error. When Powell says hes starting to see money market tightening hes effectively acknowledging that the Fed has hit the edge of how far it can push quantitative tightening without risking dysfunction in repo markets T-bill liquidity or bank reserve levels. Its the same pressure point that led to the September 2019 repo spike only now the balance sheet is much larger and the Treasurys financing needs are far heavier."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978154638567158094) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T17:43Z 55.1K followers, 259.2K engagements


"The death cross where the XX day moving average dips below the XXX day just means the yens short term weakness has lasted long enough to drag the longer term trend down with it. Fundamentally the story hasnt changed: Japans still running ultra loose policy while the Fed keeps rates high so the rate gap keeps sucking capital toward the dollar. Add in Japans dependence on imported energy and raw materials both priced in USD and you get constant structural demand for dollars. The cross just reflects how one sided that setup has been. But technically the yens now deep into a zone where"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977873012960506137) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T23:04Z 54.9K followers, 26.7K engagements


"The front end the X year is falling because the market is now pricing in an extended Fed easing cycle with back to back rate cuts as the economy slows. But the long end the XX year and forward curves remains elevated signaling that structural forces are overpowering short term policy. This divergence between a falling front end and a sticky or rising long end is what fiscal dominance looks like in real time where monetary policy can move the short end but the long end is now anchored by sovereign credit risk debt supply and the global re-pricing of duration. Forget about inflation this is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978434844146176086) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T12:16Z 55.1K followers, 25.5K engagements


"What Trump is doing is laying the groundwork for a major shift in how housing policy could be framed and financed. The post looks like a populist swipe at corporate welfare suggesting that giant homebuilders are being handed billions while ordinary Americans cant afford homes. But underneath that hes likely setting the stage for something much bigger. This kind of messaging usually comes right before a policy move. By highlighting how Washington props up a few massive builders hes positioning himself as the guy whos going to clean it up. But that doesnt mean tearing the system down it means"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977536334676836544) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T00:46Z 55K followers, 25.2K engagements


"What were seeing in Japans bond market right now is a full repricing of the countrys long term risk profile. The entire curve is rising but the steepest moves are on the long end the 30-year yield jumping to XXXX% while the short end (3 month) actually dipped which tells you this is about structural expectations shifting. With Sanae Takaichi positioned to take over as prime minister investors are bracing for an Abenomics style fiscal expansion on steroids: big defense budgets AI and semiconductor subsidies and looser fiscal discipline all while the Bank of Japan is clearly pulling back from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975368100351500520) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-07T01:10Z 55K followers, 90.6K engagements


"The Beige Books Quiet Signal: Americas Deflation Is Already Here Just Hidden Behind Policy Noise The October Beige Book paints the picture of an economy that is slowly deflating under the weight of structural imbalances disguised as stability. While the headline tone reads little change in activity what the report really describes is an underlying contraction in momentum masked by government backstops credit smoothing and tariff induced distortions. The pattern is classic late cycle disinflation where pricing power is fading inventories are rising quietly and firms unable to pass on costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978851367189172234) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T15:51Z 55.1K followers, 23.4K engagements


"Whats happening with Nexperia goes way beyond a simple regulatory move by the Dutch government this is a front line moment in the global tech power struggle between the West and China. On paper the Netherlands says its stepping in because of administrative shortcomings and national security risks. But in reality this is about cutting off one of Chinas quiet backdoors into Western chip technology. Nexperia may be based in Europe but its owned by Chinas Wingtech and the fear is that valuable know how could end up back in Chinese hands. By freezing Nexperias corporate decisions and removing its"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977550998253060508) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T01:44Z 55.1K followers, 123.9K engagements


"The Real Risk Behind a XX% Yield in a X% World A XXXXX% yield looks like a no brainer especially when Treasuries are offering somewhere around XXX% to XXX% across the curve. But when something promises more than double the risk free rate that spread is the market pricing in risk that investors might not fully understand. STRC isnt a Treasury a CD or even a corporate bond. Its a preferred security issued by Strategy Inc. which means youre not lending to the U.S. government or even to a diversified company youre lending to one firm on subordinate terms with no federal insurance no collateral"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978192790350639145) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T20:14Z 55.1K followers, 286.6K engagements


"If it is backed by the company that really just means its backed by trust in MSTRs cash flow and how much leverage theyve taken against their Bitcoin. In a downturn that connection hurts more than it helps. Investors in STRC dont actually have any claim to the Bitcoin itself theyre behind the bondholders and other debts if things go bad. So if MSTR runs into liquidity issues or Bitcoin drops STRC holders take the hit with no collateral protecting them. Calling that normal corporate finance misses the point this isnt a standard preferred stock its basically a high risk yield product built on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978267643770441861) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T01:12Z 54.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Julius Baers losses tied to Germanys Degag Group reflect how deeply even conservative Swiss private banks got pulled into yield chasing during years of zero or negative rates. Degags business model was classic for that era: buy aging apartment buildings across northern Germany renovate them refinance at low rates and pocket the spread. But once rates shot higher and refinancing costs exploded the model broke. Projects that looked solid on paper a few years ago suddenly couldnt roll over their debt or sustain their valuations. Now that Degag has gone insolvent Julius Baer is left holding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977752632497176686) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T15:05Z 55K followers, 29.3K engagements


"Goldman is warning about the risk of another stagflationary regime where commodities rise while both equities and bonds decline much like in 2022. These episodes are rare but destabilizing because they strip away the safe haven quality of a balanced portfolio: supply side shocks push energy food and metals higher while bonds and equities sell off together leaving only gold and commodities as hedges. Historically these moments have coincided with inflation that central banks cannot easily contain and capital markets that offer no place to hide. The risk Goldman highlights is real but the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1963394120275136630) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-09-04T00:10Z 54K followers, 14.9K engagements


"Argentina is one of the worlds largest holders of lithium copper and rare earth minerals critical materials for electric vehicles semiconductors and defense systems. Whoever secures Argentinas mineral trade secures leverage in the clean energy and tech future. By setting up a $XX billion currency swap and buying pesos the U.S. is quietly reasserting dollar control in a region where China has made serious inroads through yuan swap lines and mining partnerships. Argentina has been drifting toward the yuan for trade settlements. This deal pulls it back into the dollar system. This also lets the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976495688302186730) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T03:51Z 55.1K followers, 326.2K engagements


"Powell hinting that the Fed could end QT soon is about protecting the system after the Fed has already started cutting rates. The September 2025 cut to 4.004.25% marked the first move lower since December 2024 but it came after months of tightening financial conditions that drained liquidity out of the banking system. Bank reserves are now running thin and the reverse repo facility the key liquidity buffer is nearly depleted. If QT keeps running while rates are already moving down the two policies will start working against each other. Thats a recipe for funding stress not growth support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978149141910798694) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T17:21Z 55.1K followers, 27.8K engagements


"@Student40608386 It is about why and how fast. A slow move lower means easing inflation; a sharp fall with rising volatility signals fear deflation risk and flight to safety. If it breaks X% fast thats the market showing stress"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976784481383334183) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T22:58Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"@btcpleb2024 Has anyone outside of Saylor or his auditors ever actually verified MicroStrategys Bitcoin reserves on chain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978268945774719385) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T01:17Z 54.3K followers, XX engagements


"What @levenson_david is getting at is that the markets leadership is starting to quietly flip from risk on AI mania to risk off balance sheet survival. The sectors that include utilities (XLU) healthcare (XLV) consumer staples (XLP) and long duration Treasuries (ZROZ) are defensive plays. They do well when investors shift from chasing growth to protecting capital. Their strength right now signals deleveraging the markets way of saying that the easy liquidity and margin expansion that fueled the AI boom are starting to unwind. When he talks about the pins that burst the AI bubble he means that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975897755567460704) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-08T12:15Z 55K followers, 24K engagements


"If institutions could just shut off the sell side whenever they wanted then why do they ever lose money Why did Credit Suisse collapse Why did Archegos blow up Why did March 2020 happen at all The truth is these systems dont operate like a light switch theyre complex risk based engines reacting to volatility in milliseconds. When things move fast they dont stop selling because they cant without breaking the models that keep them solvent. What youre seeing is the markets risk circuits all tripping at once. The illusion of control is comforting but if institutions truly had that power theyd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976866255572209896) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T04:23Z 54.3K followers, 2222 engagements


"Why Lower Delinquencies Dont Mean the Consumer Is Getting Stronger JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are not seeing healthier consumers; theyre seeing cleaner portfolios because theyve been tightening credit for nearly two years. Theyve raised lending cutoffs trimmed subprime exposure and shifted toward higher FICO transactors people who rarely carry balances and pay in full every month. That shift changes the composition of the data. When your customer base tilts toward stronger borrowers your delinquency ratios fall automatically even if the actual amount of overdue debt across the economy isnt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978136941167018517) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T16:32Z 54.9K followers, 15.1K engagements


"The Real Reason Retirement Ages Are Rising And Why Immigration Has Become Unspoken Policy Germanys plan to raise the retirement age to XX is a sign that the demographic engine powering modern economies is breaking down. Beneath the official language about pension sustainability lies a much deeper truth: advanced societies are running out of young people to support the old and the math behind the social contract no longer works. For most of the postwar era pension systems were built on a demographic pyramid a large young workforce at the base supporting a smaller pool of retirees at the top."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975307943068508530) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-06T21:11Z 54.1K followers, 37.8K engagements


"@mmarasciullo Im not responsible for how you interpret it youre seeing it as sympathy when Im just describing whats actually happening. Im not defending the Fed Im explaining the power dynamics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978809415022035220) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T13:05Z 54.9K followers, XX engagements


"Exactly capitalism isnt the real problem here. This is what Robert Triffin warned about decades ago. The way the dollar system was set up after 1971 made it almost impossible to avoid this kind of imbalance. The U.S. got too comfortable with its reserve currency privilege and let efficiency and short term profits replace long term strategy. Now were in a spot where we have to act more aggressively even in ways that look a bit authoritarian just to catch up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978635236003942730) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T01:32Z 55K followers, 1600 engagements


"Thats exactly the tension. Equities stopped being priced primarily as income streams a long time ago they became claims on scarce inflation protected capital. In a world where every currency gets debased to fund deficits the equity market behaves less like a discounted cash flow machine and more like a dynamic hedge against monetary erosion. The problem is that this shift turned valuation growth into the inflation premium itself as liquidity expands multiples inflate because investors would rather hold productive assets than paper claims. But now were in the inversion phase where liquidity is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976835155487543698) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T02:20Z 55K followers, XXX engagements


"What Trump announced today a XXX% tariff on Chinese imports and new export controls on critical U.S. software is one of those moments that shifts the trajectory of the global economy whether or not its actually implemented. Even if these measures never fully take effect the threat alone changes how companies investors and governments behave. It signals that the worlds two largest economies are no longer trying to manage their rivalry theyre preparing to decouple. If it does go through the effects could be dramatic. Its not just a rerun of the trade wars from 2018 this would be more like a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976758886003593615) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T21:16Z 55.1K followers, 161.3K engagements


"It means over XX% of U.S. debt is short to medium term and has to be constantly refinanced with about a third maturing within the next year alone. Every rollover locks in higher rates on a bigger balance sheet pushing interest costs toward $XXX trillion a year and accelerating the deficit spiral. Its like running the worlds largest economy on adjustable rate debt theres almost no cushion if yields rise or buyers hesitate. The danger isnt in the 17%; its in how exposed the other XX% is to the markets next move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978294192934711448) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T02:57Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements


"This is exactly what Ive been talking about. There was no reversal no softening no exception. Just a strategic reclassification same tariff different bucket. Thats the whole point. This system was never meant to be clean or linear. It was designed for controlled chaos to constantly reshuffle pressure without ever signaling surrender. People keep looking for consistency in headlines. But Ive been saying from the start: this isnt policy its warfare. The chaos isnt a bug its the operational fog built into the playbook. By keeping markets media and adversaries confused they preserve strategic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1911509428702003488) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-04-13T19:58Z 54.1K followers, 58.5K engagements


"Why Xis Military Purges Are Really Happening And Why They Always Happen This Way Whats unfolding in China right now the expulsion of top generals and a sweeping military purge is part of a recurring pattern in Chinese power politics when the leadership feels internal cohesion is weakening or an external confrontation is coming the Party resets the ranks. Xis current crackdown fits this historical rhythm almost perfectly. This is being advertised that its all about cleaning up graft inside the Peoples Liberation Army a story the CCP has told for decades. But underneath that its about control."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979393157037994081) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-18T03:44Z 55.1K followers, 29.9K engagements


"When Lower Rates Turn Toxic for Banks When rates fall sharply its easy to assume banks benefit because after all cheaper money should boost lending and lift bond prices. But in reality the first stage of a rate drop can be deeply painful for the banking system especially after two years of relentless tightening. Heres why. As yields fall the interest earned on floating rate loans and new assets drops almost instantly while deposit and funding costs take time to adjust. That lag compresses banks net interest margins the core of their profitability. The problem runs deeper when you look at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978169413041009021) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T18:41Z 55.1K followers, 24.6K engagements


"Respectfully that assumes the collateralization data is reliable in the first place. None of MicroStrategys Bitcoin reserves have ever been verified on chain not by auditors and not by the public not even with wallet disclosures. Were all taking Saylors word for it and thats the same trust based model crypto was supposed to move beyond. If the backing cant be independently verified the 2x metric doesnt mean much its leverage math built on faith not proof"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978292346916643061) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T02:50Z 54.3K followers, XXX engagements


"The United States is preparing to stabilize Argentina through the Treasurys Exchange Stabilization Fund using instruments such as dollar swap lines direct peso purchases and targeted buying of Argentine sovereign bonds. This replicates the 1995 Mexico rescue when swift U.S. intervention stopped a collapse and reinforced U.S. dominance in Latin America. In the short term these measures would steady the peso and place a floor under Argentine bond prices. In the longer view the purpose is alignment. With Argentina already consuming nearly half of the IMFs global lending capacity Washington is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1970226117383487978) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-09-22T20:38Z 55K followers, 107.8K engagements


"The XX% decline 🥴 in health insurance costs over five years isnt reflecting what households actually pay but rather how the BLS imputes the value of insurance using retained earnings and benefit payout ratios from insurers. In other words if insurers report a period of higher profitability or lower payouts the model treats that as a consumer discount even if premiums rose in dollar terms. This creates a false signal that health insurance is getting cheaper when in practice deductibles premiums and out-of pocket costs have soared. Its a textbook case of measurement arbitrage: policymakers and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1945225155405328727) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-07-15T20:53Z 55K followers, 35.4K engagements


"Firms like Blackstone Apollo and KKR sit at the center of the leveraged economy. When their stocks roll over in sync its usually because the underlying plumbing that supports their business with cheap credit strong deal flow and easy exits is tightening up. Think about how these firms make money they buy companies with borrowed funds refinance them as rates fall and sell them when valuations rise. But now the math is turning against them. The cost of debt is high and sticky the XX year yield is creeping up again after that weak auction and the economic backdrop from falling consumer credit to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976239255299985736) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-09T10:52Z 54.9K followers, 44.7K engagements


"Silvers rise right now is the result of monetary shifts industrial demand and geopolitical restructuring all colliding at once. To understand it you have to see silver as the bridge between two worlds: the old monetary system thats losing credibility and the new energy and technology systems being built to replace it. On the monetary side investors are moving back into hard assets as confidence in fiat systems erodes. Global debt loads are at record highs central banks are quietly cutting exposure to Treasuries and real yields are rolling over. Gold has broken to all time highs but silver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977848563892637823) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T21:26Z 55.1K followers, 137.7K engagements


"What youre seeing is a sharp divergence between listed private credit proxies (a Blackstone BDC and Blue Owls stock) and the S&P XXX. The index is levitating on mega cap tech momentum and easing policy hopes but private credit is pricing a very different cycle with tighter cash flows at borrowers rising loss expectations and margin compression ahead. Private credits core exposure is floating rate loans to middle market sponsor backed companies. Higher short rates were a tailwind at first yields reset up quickly while credit losses were still muted so BDC earnings looked great. That phase is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1973140523218268667) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-09-30T21:38Z 55.1K followers, 417.3K engagements


"M2 money supply just hit a record $XXXX trillion but the real signal as @GeorgeGammon recently talked about is not the absolute level but the rate of change. The number itself tells us how much liquidity exists in the system but the slope of the curve tells us how fast that liquidity is being created or drained. And its that velocity and not the headline figure that drives credit cycles market risk appetite and inflation dynamics. M2 pushing to new highs might look inflationary but in context the pace of growth has cooled sharply since the pandemics flood of stimulus. The line may still be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979162625176145997) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T12:28Z 55.1K followers, 23.7K engagements


"The key detail here is that STRC is NOT collateralized at all. The fine print explicitly says its not backed by Strategy Inc.s bitcoin or any hard assets investors just hold a preferred claim on the companys balance sheet which means if things go sideways youre behind the secured creditors and have no direct recourse to any collateral. This is unsecured exposure to a single issuer operating in a highly volatile sector offering double digit yield precisely because investors are taking on that credit and liquidity risk. In a world where banks can access the Feds liquidity windows and Treasuries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978196479991849041) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T20:29Z 54K followers, 1577 engagements


"I HAVE OFTEN WONDERED HOW IT IS EVERYONE LOVES HIMSELF MORE THAN THE REST OF MEN BUT YET SETS LESS VALUE ON HIS OWN OPINIONS OF HIMSELF THAN THE OPINIONS OF OTHERS. - Marcus Aurelius What this line exposes is one of the deepest contradictions in human nature the way we claim to value ourselves while constantly surrendering our sense of truth to the judgment of others. We defend our comfort our image our ambitions but when it comes to what we believe about ourselves we hand that power away. We let the echo of outside approval or criticism shape how we see our worth. Its as if our reflection in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977578495438946814) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T03:33Z 55.1K followers, 23.7K engagements


"The last two times the market was set up like this with tight liquidity balance sheets full and funding markets starting to strain both ended with direct Fed intervention but not right away. In late 2018 the cracks started to show in October when equity volatility picked up and credit issuance slowed sharply. By December the stress hit critical mass where liquidity evaporated corporate bond markets froze completely and equities plunged nearly 20%. The Fed had just hiked rates again on December XX but within about three weeks by January X 2019 Powell publicly reversed course announcing that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979276767643996239) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T20:02Z 55.1K followers, 40.2K engagements


"Since 2019 Chinas money supply has exploded because its entire economic model runs on state directed credit. When growth stalls Beijing turns to its state banks and local governments to lend more refinance old debts and keep projects moving to maintain the appearance of stability. All that shows up as a massive jump in RMB money supply even when translated into dollars. But that liquidity mostly stays locked inside Chinas borders. It doesnt feed global demand; it just keeps Chinas internal financial plumbing from cracking. The U.S. on the other hand flooded the system with money during COVID"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978812702005858442) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T13:18Z 55.1K followers, 37.1K engagements


"What jumps out here is what it says about the plumbing of structured credit. Tricolor appears to have pledged the same collateral to multiple creditors tens of thousands of loans backed by the same VINs. Thats effectively counterfeit collateral. When that sits inside warehouse lines or gets packaged into ABS youre looking at contagion risk. The second order effects are serious. First it undermines trust in the tapes that back securitizations. If one shop can inflate its portfolio by double counting assets investors will start questioning the integrity of other loan pools too especially in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1974280150670872990) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-04T01:07Z 55K followers, 26.9K engagements


"This is about control over the global trade network itself. The U.S. is using Section XXX not just as a trade penalty but as a weaponized restructuring of global logistics power. By making it prohibitively expensive for Chinese built or owned vessels to operate in U.S. waters Washington is quietly cutting China out of the worlds commercial bloodstream. This is strategic decoupling at the level of infrastructure. The target isnt just Chinese exports its the entire ecosystem that moves them including shipyards cranes port equipment and maritime financing. The U.S. is effectively saying that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978431203687399623) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T12:02Z 55.1K followers, 27K engagements


"Thats really the heart of it. The U.S. isnt just tightening to fight inflation; its also trying to counter Chinas attempt to export its deflation problem. Chinas pumping credit into its system to keep its economy afloat and factories busy which ends up flooding the world with cheaper goods. The U.S. on the other hand is pulling liquidity out and using tariffs to stop that wave of cheap exports from crushing its own industries or wages. So what youre seeing is two countries taking opposite approaches to the same global problemSo Chinas printing to survive and the U.S. is tightening to defend."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978816979336094013) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T13:35Z 55.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Michael the dollars strength exists because the world continually recycles U.S. debt to keep the dollar system running not because our deficits are self contained. Thats the Triffin dilemma in motion every round of U.S. spending fuels global liquidity instead of domestic capacity. Japan can sustain huge debt because its funded internally in a closed loop but the U.S. cant because our debt is priced globally and relies on confidence not captive savings. The dollar looks powerful because the world still needs it to function but that dependence is also the systems weakness it forces the U.S. to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978648582040309985) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T02:25Z 55K followers, XXX engagements


"Fed H.4.1 Deep Read: The Late QT Fault Line Beneath the Surface The Feds balance sheet continues to contract quietly but the composition of that contraction reveals that the era of painless QT is ending. The Feds total assets sit near $XXXX trillion down roughly $XXX billion year on year with securities holdings at $XXXX trillion split between $XXX trillion in Treasuries and $XXX trillion in MBS. The decline remains almost entirely passive no active sales just maturities rolling off yet the systems ability to absorb that runoff without stress is fading. The reverse repo facility once the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976461408830193715) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T01:34Z 55.1K followers, 42K engagements


"The Democratic Republic of the Congos new export quota system might look like an assertion of sovereignty but in reality its being heavily influenced by Beijing. China has spent the last two decades embedding itself deep inside the DRCs economy through mining rights infrastructure projects and debt financed development deals. Now as cobalt demand surges and the West scrambles to secure non Chinese supply chains China is pushing Kinshasa to formalize a system that keeps the flow of critical minerals predictable and most importantly under its influence. By enforcing quotas and threatening"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977741848727765409) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T14:22Z 55.1K followers, 44.1K engagements


"SOFR rising back to XXXX% today is about short term liquidity tightening again after a brief lull. Earlier in the week overnight rates had dipped as the system was temporarily flooded with cash from Treasury coupon payments and settlements. But that liquidity was quickly pulled back out over the last two days as the Treasury General Account at the Fed rebuilt and new Treasury issuance settled. When the Treasury takes in funds those dollars move out of the banking system and into its account at the Fed which effectively drains reserves. At the same time theres been a steady supply of new"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979189263523815507) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T14:14Z 55.1K followers, 30.2K engagements


"The Repricing of Trust in a Fractured Collateral System Gold hitting $4000 is the sign that the global financial system is starting to revalue gold as a form of collateral not just as a metal or hedge. The real story is about how institutions and central banks are quietly changing how gold fits into the plumbing of global finance. Collateral is about trust and liquidity. When a bank or clearinghouse accepts an asset as collateral its because that asset can be easily valued transferred and relied upon in times of stress. For decades U.S. Treasuries have been the foundation of that system"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975376584690250097) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-07T01:44Z 55.1K followers, 267.6K engagements


"STRC does sit above the converts and the lower yield STRF but thats more of a structural nuance than a real buffer. Once you get that far down the capital stack the differences between layers start to blur fast when things get rough. The reason they even offer STRC in the first place is to raise capital without taking on traditional debt its a way to attract yield hungry investors while avoiding dilution or stricter borrowing terms from banks. But that also tells you something important if a company is paying over XX% in a world where risk free Treasuries pay X% its because the market sees"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978200771905606074) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T20:46Z 54.1K followers, XXX engagements


"The X year yield is one of the clearest windows into how the market thinks the Fed will act next. It moves almost in lockstep with expectations for the federal funds rate over the next couple of years. So when it suddenly drops to its lowest level since 2022 its a signal that investors think the Fed will continue to ease rates going forward. The reason its falling so fast now is about stress creeping back into the financial system. When fears of regional bank contagion resurface money rushes into short term Treasuries for safety driving their yields down. That flight to safety also reflects"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978874457243697637) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T17:23Z 55.1K followers, 25.7K engagements


"What the IMF is really warning about here is that the global foreign exchange market which moves nearly $XX trillion a day is quietly becoming the weak link in the entire financial system. At first glance the statement sounds routine urging stronger stress tests better monitoring and tighter coordination. But between the lines its a signal that the wiring of global finance is starting to fray. The FX market is the bloodstream of the world economy its how dollars euros and yen flow through trade investment and debt. When the IMF says risks are underappreciated what they really mean is that the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975768275851096344) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-08T03:40Z 55.1K followers, 62.9K engagements


"Golds Rise and the New Politics of Dollar Access Gold shooting past $4200 is all about trust or rather who the global system still trusts to have access to dollars when liquidity gets tight. The Feds dollar swap lines used to function like a public utility automatic and global. Now theyre selective. G7 allies and a handful of close partners get the lifeline while everyone else is left to improvise. For countries on the outside looking in gold has become the alternative a kind of financial life raft that doesnt require permission from Washington. Thats why youre seeing central banks quietly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978787325959188779) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T11:37Z 55.1K followers, 13K engagements


"Theres no actual collateral behind STRC the fine print makes that crystal clear. Strategy Incs preferred securities (STRF STRC STRK STRD) are not collateralized by Strategy Incs bitcoin holdings. That means the yield isnt backed by Bitcoin cash or any hard asset. Investors dont have a claim to MicroStrategys Bitcoin or its balance sheet; theyre just trusting the company to keep paying as long as conditions allow. The XXXXX% dividend is only as strong as MicroStrategys cash flow and market confidence both of which are heavily tied to Bitcoins price. If liquidity dries up or Bitcoin sells off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978263276111679646) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T00:54Z 54.2K followers, XXX engagements