[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  EndGame Macro [@onechancefreedm](/creator/twitter/onechancefreedm) on x 39.8K followers Created: 2025-07-19 01:31:14 UTC Great chart from @benbrey. On the surface, it’s just a breakdown of when U.S. debt matures but look closer, and it tells a deeper, more urgent story. Nearly $X trillion of Treasuries comes due in 2025 alone, and over half of all U.S. debt rolls over within the next five years. That means the U.S. is constantly refinancing it’s debt in a world where rates are still high, buyers are more selective, and the Fed is no longer soaking up supply like it did during the QE era. The reverse repo facility is nearly drained, and foreign demand isn’t what it used to be. So the burden falls on private markets to absorb this massive wave of issuance and it’s all happening at a time when liquidity is already tight and deficits remain structurally huge. And the timing couldn’t be more sensitive. We’re not waiting for the pressure to build, we’re already in the thick of it. From now through 2027, the Treasury faces a dense wall of maturities that must be rolled over or refinanced. The Fed still holds a fair chunk of that mid curve paper, but its footprint drops off after 2030, and there’s no clear buyer of last resort on the long end. To manage this, Treasury’s turning to shorter dated paper like 4, X and X week bills trying to smooth cash flow without triggering rate spikes. At the same time, regulators are adjusting the enhanced SLR rules to give big banks more balance sheet room to absorb Treasuries without being penalized. All of this points to quiet but serious stress in the system. The Fed and Treasury need to make preemptive moves like revive buybacks, tweak issuance strategy, or expand liquidity backstops before cracks widen. This is about whether the entire financing structure of the U.S. government can keep functioning smoothly under pressure.  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [rates](/topic/rates) [debt](/topic/debt) [united states debt](/topic/united-states-debt) [endgame](/topic/endgame) [Post Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1946382289170206728)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm on x 39.8K followers
Created: 2025-07-19 01:31:14 UTC
Great chart from @benbrey. On the surface, it’s just a breakdown of when U.S. debt matures but look closer, and it tells a deeper, more urgent story. Nearly $X trillion of Treasuries comes due in 2025 alone, and over half of all U.S. debt rolls over within the next five years. That means the U.S. is constantly refinancing it’s debt in a world where rates are still high, buyers are more selective, and the Fed is no longer soaking up supply like it did during the QE era. The reverse repo facility is nearly drained, and foreign demand isn’t what it used to be. So the burden falls on private markets to absorb this massive wave of issuance and it’s all happening at a time when liquidity is already tight and deficits remain structurally huge.
And the timing couldn’t be more sensitive. We’re not waiting for the pressure to build, we’re already in the thick of it. From now through 2027, the Treasury faces a dense wall of maturities that must be rolled over or refinanced. The Fed still holds a fair chunk of that mid curve paper, but its footprint drops off after 2030, and there’s no clear buyer of last resort on the long end. To manage this, Treasury’s turning to shorter dated paper like 4, X and X week bills trying to smooth cash flow without triggering rate spikes. At the same time, regulators are adjusting the enhanced SLR rules to give big banks more balance sheet room to absorb Treasuries without being penalized. All of this points to quiet but serious stress in the system. The Fed and Treasury need to make preemptive moves like revive buybacks, tweak issuance strategy, or expand liquidity backstops before cracks widen. This is about whether the entire financing structure of the U.S. government can keep functioning smoothly under pressure.
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics rates debt united states debt endgame