[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  EndGame Macro [@onechancefreedm](/creator/twitter/onechancefreedm) on x 39.8K followers Created: 2025-07-15 01:18:39 UTC Back in mid 2008, that same yield peaked around XXX% just before the global financial crisis unraveled. At the time, Japan was the archetype of deflation: a passive central bank, zero bound rates, and a bond market that quietly absorbed global capital flows. The Bank of Japan wasn’t leading, if anything, it was dormant. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve was slashing rates from XXXX% to X% in a desperate attempt to get ahead of systemic collapse. But in 2025, the roles are inverted and the ground under Japan’s financial system is starting to buckle. The rise in yields isn’t being driven by growth or a healthy normalization cycle. It’s a structural repricing. Inflation is being imported via a collapsing yen, energy exposure, and supply chain vulnerability. The Bank of Japan’s credibility is fraying as markets blow through its prior attempts at yield curve control. The XX year JGB just broke through 3.20%, the highest level on record. The XX year hitting XXXXX% signals that the market, not the BOJ is now setting the terms. Japan faces a brutal bind: defend the long end, and the yen collapses. Defend the currency, and yields spike. With debt to GDP over 260%, the fiscal math is already fragile. The most likely path for the BOJ is quiet intervention via stealth bond purchases, liquidity injections, and vague assurances. But the core issue remains that the central bank no longer commands the market narrative. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is navigating this with strategic hesitation. Despite falling inflation data, the Fed has held its benchmark target range steady between XXXX% and 4.50%, with the effective federal funds rate hovering around 4.33%. This is about global positioning. By keeping real rates high, the Fed maintains dollar scarcity across the global system. That scarcity acts as leverage, pressuring foreign governments, draining liquidity from BRICS aligned regions, and preserving the dollar’s monetary hegemony. But the longer Japan’s bond yields climb especially with the XX year offering XXX% and less currency risk, the more U.S. Treasuries lose their competitive edge. Foreign demand at the long end is already showing signs of thinning. Yields on XX year Treasuries sit at 4.42%, with the 30-year around XXXX% but those levels might not be enough if capital begins rotating back to Japan. The Treasury will continue to skew issuance toward shorter bills to contain long end pressures while quietly pulling liquidity from the reverse repo facility. The Fed will hold rates in place for now, but the tone will begin to soften. They don’t need a full pivot yet, but they need to prepare the ground in case disorderly curve steepening forces their hand. Markets are no longer anchored by forward guidance, they’re responding to hard fiscal math, debt sustainability, and the geopolitical repositioning of capital. Japan’s yield spike is the tip of the spear. In 2008, Japan was the deflationary ballast. In 2025, it could be the first advanced economy to lose control of its sovereign bond market in real time. If that quiet anchor slips, it won’t just be Tokyo that feels the consequences.  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [federal reserve](/topic/federal-reserve) [rates](/topic/rates) [bank of](/topic/bank-of) [deflation](/topic/deflation) [japan](/topic/japan) [macro](/topic/macro) [endgame](/topic/endgame) [Post Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1944929571888865606)
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EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm on x 39.8K followers
Created: 2025-07-15 01:18:39 UTC
Back in mid 2008, that same yield peaked around XXX% just before the global financial crisis unraveled. At the time, Japan was the archetype of deflation: a passive central bank, zero bound rates, and a bond market that quietly absorbed global capital flows. The Bank of Japan wasn’t leading, if anything, it was dormant. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve was slashing rates from XXXX% to X% in a desperate attempt to get ahead of systemic collapse.
But in 2025, the roles are inverted and the ground under Japan’s financial system is starting to buckle. The rise in yields isn’t being driven by growth or a healthy normalization cycle. It’s a structural repricing. Inflation is being imported via a collapsing yen, energy exposure, and supply chain vulnerability. The Bank of Japan’s credibility is fraying as markets blow through its prior attempts at yield curve control. The XX year JGB just broke through 3.20%, the highest level on record. The XX year hitting XXXXX% signals that the market, not the BOJ is now setting the terms. Japan faces a brutal bind: defend the long end, and the yen collapses. Defend the currency, and yields spike. With debt to GDP over 260%, the fiscal math is already fragile. The most likely path for the BOJ is quiet intervention via stealth bond purchases, liquidity injections, and vague assurances. But the core issue remains that the central bank no longer commands the market narrative.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is navigating this with strategic hesitation. Despite falling inflation data, the Fed has held its benchmark target range steady between XXXX% and 4.50%, with the effective federal funds rate hovering around 4.33%. This is about global positioning. By keeping real rates high, the Fed maintains dollar scarcity across the global system. That scarcity acts as leverage, pressuring foreign governments, draining liquidity from BRICS aligned regions, and preserving the dollar’s monetary hegemony. But the longer Japan’s bond yields climb especially with the XX year offering XXX% and less currency risk, the more U.S. Treasuries lose their competitive edge. Foreign demand at the long end is already showing signs of thinning. Yields on XX year Treasuries sit at 4.42%, with the 30-year around XXXX% but those levels might not be enough if capital begins rotating back to Japan.
The Treasury will continue to skew issuance toward shorter bills to contain long end pressures while quietly pulling liquidity from the reverse repo facility. The Fed will hold rates in place for now, but the tone will begin to soften. They don’t need a full pivot yet, but they need to prepare the ground in case disorderly curve steepening forces their hand.
Markets are no longer anchored by forward guidance, they’re responding to hard fiscal math, debt sustainability, and the geopolitical repositioning of capital. Japan’s yield spike is the tip of the spear. In 2008, Japan was the deflationary ballast. In 2025, it could be the first advanced economy to lose control of its sovereign bond market in real time. If that quiet anchor slips, it won’t just be Tokyo that feels the consequences.
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics federal reserve rates bank of deflation japan macro endgame