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[@onechancefreedm](/creator/twitter/onechancefreedm)
"1929 Then 2025 Now: Echoes of a Fragile Market Back in 1929 the Dows September peak unraveled into cascading declines not only because of speculation and leverage but because of policy mistakes that hardened a downturn into a depression. The most critical was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 which weaponized trade at the worst possible time. Global trade volumes collapsed by nearly two thirds within four years starving economies of demand and accelerating systemic failure. The present moment in 2025 carries uncomfortable symmetry. Equity valuations are stretched after years of liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1961607483027230960) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-08-30T01:50Z 55.5K followers, 42.8K engagements


"This is the classic late cycle K shaped U.S. economy in one picture. The sectors that are inherently rate sensitive and cyclical like manufacturing construction transport/logistics are already in recessionary terrain while the headline is being propped up by inelastic or policy insulated services (healthcare state & local government) accounting heavy real estate and intangible rich tech/professional services. That mix can keep GDP looking okay even as the parts of the economy that set the next cycles productivity and jobs deteriorate. Two measurement quirks matter. Real estate here is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1971610912537645088) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-09-26T16:20Z 56.9K followers, 32.1K engagements


"JOLTS: Cooler Not Cold And What 7.2M Openings Really Means Job openings held at XXX million in August hires and total separations both came in around XXX million quits slipped to XXX million and layoffs stayed low at XXX million. That looks dovish with less churn fewer postings softer wage pressure. But the details tell a more complicated story. Leisure and hospitality the highest churn sector was a big driver of the cooling. Quits there fell sharply even as openings rose. When a giant churn machine slows the national quits rate comes down even if other sectors remain steady. Health care"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1973051158953341183) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-09-30T15:43Z 56.4K followers, 15.4K engagements


"What jumps out here is what it says about the plumbing of structured credit. Tricolor appears to have pledged the same collateral to multiple creditors tens of thousands of loans backed by the same VINs. Thats effectively counterfeit collateral. When that sits inside warehouse lines or gets packaged into ABS youre looking at contagion risk. The second order effects are serious. First it undermines trust in the tapes that back securitizations. If one shop can inflate its portfolio by double counting assets investors will start questioning the integrity of other loan pools too especially in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1974280150670872990) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-04T01:07Z 55.3K followers, 26.9K engagements


"What the IMF is really warning about here is that the global foreign exchange market which moves nearly $XX trillion a day is quietly becoming the weak link in the entire financial system. At first glance the statement sounds routine urging stronger stress tests better monitoring and tighter coordination. But between the lines its a signal that the wiring of global finance is starting to fray. The FX market is the bloodstream of the world economy its how dollars euros and yen flow through trade investment and debt. When the IMF says risks are underappreciated what they really mean is that the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975768275851096344) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-08T03:40Z 56.2K followers, 62.9K engagements


"Global liquidity is ticking up again where central banks Treasuries and major financial institutions are quietly adding support but that flow isnt circulating through the real economy. Its getting trapped in the plumbing absorbed by an enormous refinancing wave. Between late 2025 and 2027 roughly $2428 trillion in debt that includes government commercial real estate and corporate needs to be rolled over at higher rates. That means much of the new liquidity isnt stimulating growth; its being recycled just to keep the system solvent. The Treasury market primary dealers and large banks are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975877971723366767) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-08T10:56Z 56.1K followers, 47.1K engagements


"What were seeing here is a slow motion version of what Richard Koo describes as a balance sheet recession and the numbers make that clear. The national average FICO score just dropped by two points the biggest annual decline since 2009 signaling that the post pandemic credit boom has rolled over. Delinquencies on credit cards auto loans and personal loans are now at or near their highest levels since the Great Recession levels FICO itself says look more consistent with a recession than an expansion. Nearly one in five Americans (19%) admit theyve skipped or underpaid bills in the past year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976056431930417270) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-08T22:45Z 56.1K followers, 16.4K engagements


"Fed H.4.1 Deep Read: The Late QT Fault Line Beneath the Surface The Feds balance sheet continues to contract quietly but the composition of that contraction reveals that the era of painless QT is ending. The Feds total assets sit near $XXXX trillion down roughly $XXX billion year on year with securities holdings at $XXXX trillion split between $XXX trillion in Treasuries and $XXX trillion in MBS. The decline remains almost entirely passive no active sales just maturities rolling off yet the systems ability to absorb that runoff without stress is fading. The reverse repo facility once the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976461408830193715) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T01:34Z 55.5K followers, 42.1K engagements


"The Great Dollar SnapBack: How and Why the U.S. Could Weaponize the Dollar And Keep It Leashed Until Its Time Lets break down a hypothetical of how the U.S. could weaponize the dollar and why it would do it how it could work and when it would make the most sense to let it strengthen. This wouldnt be a currency war fought through FX interventions or rate cuts but through the inner plumbing of the system. By shifting Treasury issuance managing the Treasury General Account (TGA) and controlling collateral Washington can tighten or loosen global dollar liquidity without the Fed moving a single"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976483088025739731) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T03:01Z 55.8K followers, 17.7K engagements


"When Oil Prices Signal Deflation Not Relief Oils crash today is about collapsing confidence in global demand. Trumps threat to impose XXX% tariffs on China sent an immediate shockwave through the market because it forces traders to imagine a world where trade grinds to a halt. When the two largest economies start threatening full scale economic warfare energy traders see fewer factories humming fewer ships moving goods and fewer consumers spending. Thats why oil fell off a cliff. This is deflationary fear the kind that suggests the global economy is slowing faster than supply can adjust. What"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976765959126851852) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T21:45Z 56.9K followers, 56.4K engagements


"If institutions could just shut off the sell side whenever they wanted then why do they ever lose money Why did Credit Suisse collapse Why did Archegos blow up Why did March 2020 happen at all The truth is these systems dont operate like a light switch theyre complex risk based engines reacting to volatility in milliseconds. When things move fast they dont stop selling because they cant without breaking the models that keep them solvent. What youre seeing is the markets risk circuits all tripping at once. The illusion of control is comforting but if institutions truly had that power theyd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976866255572209896) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T04:23Z 55.3K followers, 2224 engagements


"Why Lower Delinquencies Dont Mean the Consumer Is Getting Stronger JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are not seeing healthier consumers; theyre seeing cleaner portfolios because theyve been tightening credit for nearly two years. Theyve raised lending cutoffs trimmed subprime exposure and shifted toward higher FICO transactors people who rarely carry balances and pay in full every month. That shift changes the composition of the data. When your customer base tilts toward stronger borrowers your delinquency ratios fall automatically even if the actual amount of overdue debt across the economy isnt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978136941167018517) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T16:32Z 56.4K followers, 15.2K engagements


"Powell hinting that the Fed could end QT soon is about protecting the system after the Fed has already started cutting rates. The September 2025 cut to 4.004.25% marked the first move lower since December 2024 but it came after months of tightening financial conditions that drained liquidity out of the banking system. Bank reserves are now running thin and the reverse repo facility the key liquidity buffer is nearly depleted. If QT keeps running while rates are already moving down the two policies will start working against each other. Thats a recipe for funding stress not growth support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978149141910798694) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T17:21Z 55.8K followers, 27.8K engagements


"@btcpleb2024 Has anyone outside of Saylor or his auditors ever actually verified MicroStrategys Bitcoin reserves on chain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978268945774719385) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T01:17Z 55.4K followers, XXX engagements


"PCAOB audits are not the same thing as public on chain verification. MicroStrategys auditors verify the companys financial statements not specific wallet balances or blockchain transactions. They confirm what Saylor reports internally but they dont publish wallet addresses or cryptographic proofs. In fact the PCAOB itself warns that audits of this type dont validate digital asset ownership in the way a true proof of reserves report would. So yes the audits exist but the Bitcoin holdings have never been independently verified on chain by anyone outside the company. Thats the core of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978295359047614647) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T03:02Z 55.8K followers, XXX engagements


"Everything we hear is an opinion not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective not the truth. - Marcus Aurelius Marcus Aurelius was warning us that most of what we take in like what we read watch and believe isnt pure truth. Its filtered through someones perspective shaped by their emotions incentives and biases. And today thats more relevant than ever. We live in a world where everything is politicized where every headline has a motive and every story is crafted to pull you toward a side. Its not just happening by accident its designed that way. The system feeds on attention outrage and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978303143847821411) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T03:33Z 55.6K followers, 12.5K engagements


"The front end the X year is falling because the market is now pricing in an extended Fed easing cycle with back to back rate cuts as the economy slows. But the long end the XX year and forward curves remains elevated signaling that structural forces are overpowering short term policy. This divergence between a falling front end and a sticky or rising long end is what fiscal dominance looks like in real time where monetary policy can move the short end but the long end is now anchored by sovereign credit risk debt supply and the global re-pricing of duration. Forget about inflation this is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978434844146176086) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T12:16Z 55.4K followers, 25.5K engagements


"@LukeGromen Very interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978660533323620843) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T03:13Z 55.4K followers, 2767 engagements


"Thats really the heart of it. The U.S. isnt just tightening to fight inflation; its also trying to counter Chinas attempt to export its deflation problem. Chinas pumping credit into its system to keep its economy afloat and factories busy which ends up flooding the world with cheaper goods. The U.S. on the other hand is pulling liquidity out and using tariffs to stop that wave of cheap exports from crushing its own industries or wages. So what youre seeing is two countries taking opposite approaches to the same global problemSo Chinas printing to survive and the U.S. is tightening to defend."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978816979336094013) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T13:35Z 56.4K followers, XXX engagements


"Housing policy just quietly pulled two levers in opposite directions. On one side the new FHA rule change from May basically shut out non permanent residents people like H-1B visa holders from getting FHA loans. They made up only around XX% of the national FHA volume but in certain markets like Florida or parts of Texas they were a real source of marginal demand. That matters because these are often the most rate sensitive buyers at the lower end of the market. When you remove that slice of demand you can crash prices and slow down entry level sales and take away the bidding pressure. At the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978847577710694818) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T15:36Z 56.5K followers, 12.7K engagements


"It is key to understand that not all deflation looks like prices falling. The kind were seeing now is monetary and credit deflation where the flow of money and lending in the system is drying up even though certain prices like groceries or healthcare are still high. When credit tightens and liquidity drains it quietly squeezes the economy from the inside out. Businesses feel it first where demand softens margins shrink and it becomes harder to borrow refinance or raise capital. They start cutting costs delaying projects or laying off workers not because prices are collapsing but because real"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978855039805301130) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T16:06Z 55.3K followers, XXX engagements


"When volatility suddenly spikes like this risk models used by hedge funds and big institutions called value at risk or VAR models automatically tell them to cut exposure. Once those models trip the selling becomes mechanical programs start dumping assets to stay within risk limits. Thats what he means by nothing he says can prevent program selling. Its not emotion driven selling; its algorithmic risk control. Where hes right is that once this process starts it feeds on itself. The higher the volatility the more these systems sell which creates even more volatility. But Id add that catalysts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976811680349737391) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T00:46Z 57K followers, 131.8K engagements


"I HAVE OFTEN WONDERED HOW IT IS EVERYONE LOVES HIMSELF MORE THAN THE REST OF MEN BUT YET SETS LESS VALUE ON HIS OWN OPINIONS OF HIMSELF THAN THE OPINIONS OF OTHERS. - Marcus Aurelius What this line exposes is one of the deepest contradictions in human nature the way we claim to value ourselves while constantly surrendering our sense of truth to the judgment of others. We defend our comfort our image our ambitions but when it comes to what we believe about ourselves we hand that power away. We let the echo of outside approval or criticism shape how we see our worth. Its as if our reflection in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977578495438946814) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T03:33Z 57K followers, 23.8K engagements


"This is about control over the global trade network itself. The U.S. is using Section XXX not just as a trade penalty but as a weaponized restructuring of global logistics power. By making it prohibitively expensive for Chinese built or owned vessels to operate in U.S. waters Washington is quietly cutting China out of the worlds commercial bloodstream. This is strategic decoupling at the level of infrastructure. The target isnt just Chinese exports its the entire ecosystem that moves them including shipyards cranes port equipment and maritime financing. The U.S. is effectively saying that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978431203687399623) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T12:02Z 57K followers, 27.1K engagements


"You are technically right that non banks cant hold reserves at the Fed but that doesnt mean the Fed cant get liquidity to them. The Fed just does it indirectly. It pushes cash through the system using banks primary dealers and repo facilities basically lending against collateral so that reserves flow from the core of the system to everyone else. Thats what tools like the Standing Repo Facility and the old BTFP were built for. So even if non banks cant access reserves directly they can still feel the effects when the Fed opens those pipes. The real problem is whether they have good collateral"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975776606263120121) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-08T04:13Z 57.1K followers, 1848 engagements


"Thats exactly the tension. Equities stopped being priced primarily as income streams a long time ago they became claims on scarce inflation protected capital. In a world where every currency gets debased to fund deficits the equity market behaves less like a discounted cash flow machine and more like a dynamic hedge against monetary erosion. The problem is that this shift turned valuation growth into the inflation premium itself as liquidity expands multiples inflate because investors would rather hold productive assets than paper claims. But now were in the inversion phase where liquidity is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976835155487543698) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T02:20Z 57.1K followers, XXX engagements


"If Trump really wanted to move fast to cut Americas dependence on China he wouldnt wait for Congress hed use the emergency powers already on the books. The first step would be declaring an economic national emergency tied to Chinas control of critical supply chains like shipping semiconductors and the power grid. That unlocks the International Emergency Economic Powers Act which lets Treasury and Commerce immediately block or unwind Chinese ownership in ports data centers and logistics firms and ban U.S. companies from doing business with PRC linked tech or defense firms. Its the legal master"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978471411522953510) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T14:41Z 57.2K followers, 42.3K engagements


"Exactly capitalism isnt the real problem here. This is what Robert Triffin warned about decades ago. The way the dollar system was set up after 1971 made it almost impossible to avoid this kind of imbalance. The U.S. got too comfortable with its reserve currency privilege and let efficiency and short term profits replace long term strategy. Now were in a spot where we have to act more aggressively even in ways that look a bit authoritarian just to catch up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978635236003942730) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T01:32Z 57.1K followers, 1621 engagements


"@SealOfTheEnd Washington will try to route whatever regional capacity emerges into allied processing networks while using law enforcement and financial pressure to choke the gray trade that funds armed groups"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980429050532548924) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-21T00:20Z 57.1K followers, XX engagements


"The United States is preparing to stabilize Argentina through the Treasurys Exchange Stabilization Fund using instruments such as dollar swap lines direct peso purchases and targeted buying of Argentine sovereign bonds. This replicates the 1995 Mexico rescue when swift U.S. intervention stopped a collapse and reinforced U.S. dominance in Latin America. In the short term these measures would steady the peso and place a floor under Argentine bond prices. In the longer view the purpose is alignment. With Argentina already consuming nearly half of the IMFs global lending capacity Washington is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1970226117383487978) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-09-22T20:38Z 57.2K followers, 107.9K engagements


"What youre seeing is a sharp divergence between listed private credit proxies (a Blackstone BDC and Blue Owls stock) and the S&P XXX. The index is levitating on mega cap tech momentum and easing policy hopes but private credit is pricing a very different cycle with tighter cash flows at borrowers rising loss expectations and margin compression ahead. Private credits core exposure is floating rate loans to middle market sponsor backed companies. Higher short rates were a tailwind at first yields reset up quickly while credit losses were still muted so BDC earnings looked great. That phase is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1973140523218268667) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-09-30T21:38Z 57.2K followers, 417.8K engagements


"Argentina is one of the worlds largest holders of lithium copper and rare earth minerals critical materials for electric vehicles semiconductors and defense systems. Whoever secures Argentinas mineral trade secures leverage in the clean energy and tech future. By setting up a $XX billion currency swap and buying pesos the U.S. is quietly reasserting dollar control in a region where China has made serious inroads through yuan swap lines and mining partnerships. Argentina has been drifting toward the yuan for trade settlements. This deal pulls it back into the dollar system. This also lets the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976495688302186730) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T03:51Z 57.2K followers, 327.1K engagements


"What youre seeing is a full system de-risking that used crypto as the pressure release valve. The day started with a global growth scare with trade war headlines oil falling off a cliff long bond yields sliding and that flips every risk model from carry to cut. In equities and bonds that shows up as VAR driven de-leveraging; in crypto it shows up louder and faster because the market is 24/7 cross margin and built on perpetuals. Once prices gap lower high open interest meets thin liquidity funding turns collateral values shrink and the forced selling engine takes over where longs are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976819161385800099) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T01:16Z 57.2K followers, 64.3K engagements


"This chart basically says the markets gotten way too comfortable paying a premium for earnings that arent translating into real cash. The S&Ps free cash flow yield what companies generate in actual usable cash after expenses has fallen to XXX% the lowest since right before the 2008 crisis. That means for every $XXX you invest youre getting about $XXXX of real cash while a XX year Treasury pays closer to $X with zero risk. That gap tells you investors are betting heavily on future growth to justify todays prices. The problem is the free cash flow squeeze is structural. Companies are plowing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976830258704736358) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T02:00Z 57.2K followers, 29.8K engagements


"What Trump is doing is laying the groundwork for a major shift in how housing policy could be framed and financed. The post looks like a populist swipe at corporate welfare suggesting that giant homebuilders are being handed billions while ordinary Americans cant afford homes. But underneath that hes likely setting the stage for something much bigger. This kind of messaging usually comes right before a policy move. By highlighting how Washington props up a few massive builders hes positioning himself as the guy whos going to clean it up. But that doesnt mean tearing the system down it means"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977536334676836544) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T00:46Z 57.2K followers, 25.3K engagements


"Golds surge past $4100 is the market screaming that something big is breaking beneath the surface. You dont see gold rally this hard while oil drops the dollar holds steady and long term Treasury yields fall unless the system is quietly shifting into crisis prevention mode. Historically this kind of setup has only happened during major turning points late 1979 when the U.S. lost control of inflation and faith in the dollar cracked in 2008 when the credit system forced central banks into full blown balance sheet expansion and again in early 2020 when the Fed had to step in to stop a liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977927017505894553) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T02:38Z 57.2K followers, 133.7K engagements


"The ultra long U.S. Treasury bond coming within inches of a golden cross is signaling that the worlds largest bond market is beginning to price in the end of the tightening era. When long duration Treasuries start to base and push higher it means investors no longer see inflation as the dominant threat; they see slowing growth and more rate cuts on the horizon. The markets whispering what central banks arent ready to say out loud that the cycle has turned. The XX% drop in gasoline prices year over year adds more proof that this shift is about the real economy. Gasoline is one of the cleanest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978076533735530887) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T12:32Z 57.2K followers, 50.3K engagements


"The Quiet Transformation Behind QT Quantitative tightening never actually reached the long end of the curve. Since 2022 the Fed hasnt been meaningfully reducing its holdings of XX year and longer Treasuries the red line keeps climbing. The so called balance sheet reduction came almost entirely from the short end of bills and notes under one year shown by the blue line collapsing. That distinction matters more than most people realize. By keeping its long duration holdings intact the Fed quietly prevented the true yield curve repricing that real QT wouldve caused. The private sector was never"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978277010913771700) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T01:49Z 57.2K followers, 41K engagements


"The Fed is finding a workaround for the strain that QT has been putting on the financial systems plumbing. Normally at the end of each quarter banks pull back on taking new cash because of balance sheet constraints and money market funds end up parking their excess liquidity at the Fed through the Reverse Repo Facility causing those big end of quarter spikes you see in the chart. But this time there was no spike. This is because Wells Fargos asset cap was lifted giving one of the countrys biggest balance sheets room to absorb that cash through the private repo market instead of sending it to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978439711422087614) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T12:35Z 57.2K followers, 17.8K engagements


"Emerging market and commodity linked currencies are rolling over as dollar funding tightens forcing countries to scramble for access to U.S. liquidity. Argentina just secured a $XX billion package half from a U.S. Treasury swap line half from private sector financing and now South Korea is essentially asking for the same deal. But this isnt a case of everyone wants a bailout. Its everyone needs dollars and Washington is deciding who gets them on what terms and at what geopolitical cost. The U.S. isnt flooding the world with easy money anymore. Instead its using surgical interventions using"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978771352472408385) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T10:33Z 57.2K followers, 60.2K engagements


"Whats happening right now is the system itself starting to strain. The real problem is that the Fed Treasury and banking system are now working against each other. The Treasury keeps issuing massive amounts of new debt the Fed is still draining reserves through quantitative tightening and banks are already overloaded with low yield assets from the last few years. Put those together and youve got a system running out of balance sheet space and liquidity at the same time. Thats why the markets behavior feels off the plumbing of the dollar system is clogging up. The spike in SOFR regional banks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978884810589299108) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T18:04Z 57.2K followers, 67.1K engagements


"The last two times the market was set up like this with tight liquidity balance sheets full and funding markets starting to strain both ended with direct Fed intervention but not right away. In late 2018 the cracks started to show in October when equity volatility picked up and credit issuance slowed sharply. By December the stress hit critical mass where liquidity evaporated corporate bond markets froze completely and equities plunged nearly 20%. The Fed had just hiked rates again on December XX but within about three weeks by January X 2019 Powell publicly reversed course announcing that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979276767643996239) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T20:02Z 57.2K followers, 49.6K engagements


"Why Xis Military Purges Are Really Happening And Why They Always Happen This Way Whats unfolding in China right now the expulsion of top generals and a sweeping military purge is part of a recurring pattern in Chinese power politics when the leadership feels internal cohesion is weakening or an external confrontation is coming the Party resets the ranks. Xis current crackdown fits this historical rhythm almost perfectly. This is being advertised that its all about cleaning up graft inside the Peoples Liberation Army a story the CCP has told for decades. But underneath that its about control."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979393157037994081) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-18T03:44Z 57.2K followers, 75.9K engagements


"To all economists and professionals in any field I have a question for you After years of working with data watching patterns and making tough calls in uncertain situations do you feel like youve developed a kind of sixth sense an instinct for when things are about to change before the evidence actually shows it Not a guess but that subtle awareness that something in the system feels off l like the rhythm has shifted even if you cant yet explain why. How do you experience that Has it become a steady internal compass that youve learned to trust over time or is it something youre always"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979677451719729417) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-18T22:34Z 57.2K followers, 12.7K engagements


"How the U.S. Banking System Is Expanding Through the Shadows Beneath the surface calm of the October H.8 report lies a silent but powerful re-acceleration of the U.S. banking systems balance sheet one not driven by Main Street lending but by Wall Street intermediation. Total bank credit has swung back to life growing at an annualized XXX% in Q3 2025 its strongest pace since the post pandemic liquidity boom. But the composition of that growth reveals that the traditional credit creation like commercial consumer and construction loans remains subdued while credit to nonbank financial"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979899922166981002) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-19T13:18Z 57.2K followers, 21.6K engagements


"Whats playing out here is a quiet but significant shift in how liquidity rates and risk are interacting as the late cycle environment matures. The steep decline in 7/6 SOFR adjustable mortgage rates from around XXX% last November to near XXX% today is the market front running that pivot through the short end of the curve. Adjustable mortgages are priced off intermediate SOFR swaps not the XX year Treasury and those maturities have collapsed as traders price in multiple cuts over the next year. Its a reflection of front end easing expectations meeting a long end still burdened by term premium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979933527295610885) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-19T15:31Z 57.2K followers, 18.8K engagements


"Hartnetts point is that the traditional investing playbook doesnt work in the environment were in every major asset class is priced for perfection but the fundamentals underneath them are stretched to the limit. Normally youd hide in Treasuries when growth slows or stocks look expensive but with $XX trillion in debt and record issuance the government bond market itself has become part of the risk equation. Corporate credit looks safe on paper but spreads are the tightest theyve been in two decades meaning youre taking on credit risk for almost no extra return. Stocks are trading at valuations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979951711134363878) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-19T16:44Z 57.2K followers, 123.7K engagements


"For weeks gold had been bid relentlessly higher on a perfect storm of fiscal exhaustion geopolitical tension and term premium anxiety a narrative where investors sought shelter from both inflation risk and sovereign credit risk. But on that Friday several subtle forces converged to flip the script. Equities rallied into the close the VIX collapsed by nearly XX% and the dollar ticked higher alongside a small rise in real yields. That trifecta removed the justification for defensive hedging triggering systematic profit taking and momentum reversals in a market that had become extremely one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979999169428226070) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-19T19:52Z 57.2K followers, 61.2K engagements


"Monroe Doctrine 2.0: Why Venezuela Guyana and Colombia suddenly matter a lot Strip away the rhetoric and Washingtons fixation on the northern rim of South America is about two things: who controls the hemispheres next decade of oil flows and who controls the chokepoints and minerals that power modern industry. Venezuela holds the worlds largest crude reserves with heavy barrels tailor made for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Guyana has become one of the fastest growing oil provinces on earth anchored by a U.S. operator. Layer onto that the scramble for rare earths and magnet materials and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980025408448807301) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-19T21:36Z 57.2K followers, 346.5K engagements


"The Hidden Treasury Whale And How Hedge Funds and the Cayman Islands Quietly Rewired the U.S. Bond Market The revelation that hedge funds domiciled in the Cayman Islands hold roughly $XXX trillion more in U.S. Treasuries than official data suggests is a window into how the offshore financial system has become an invisible extension of the U.S. dollar machine. The Federal Reserves own research confirms that Cayman based hedge funds have effectively become the single largest foreign holders of U.S. government debt eclipsing China and Japan . The discrepancy doesnt mean the bonds dont exist it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980033837108506994) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-19T22:10Z 57.2K followers, 24.1K engagements


"@Chill02021 The goal is to lock down energy from Guyana keep a hand on the valve in Venezuela and build a friend shored rules based path for rare earths and other critical inputs all while pushing back on Chinese and Russian reach in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980060511472320760) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-19T23:56Z 57.2K followers, XXX engagements


"The Infrastructure Footprint Hiding in Plain Sight If you map where National Guard deployments have actually happened or been proposed such as Washington D.C. Los Angeles Memphis the court paused moves in Chicago and Portland and the possible extensions to New York Baltimore New Orleans St. Louis and San Francisco/Oakland it looks like a diagram of the countrys operating system. Those dots fall almost perfectly on top of the infrastructure and logistics hubs that government and think tank studies repeatedly label as nationally critical. The big coastal ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach New"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980092888785580239) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T02:05Z 57.2K followers, 49.9K engagements


"Every major asset class including stocks bonds commodities even gold has rallied over the past six months with the weakest still up more than 2%. That kind of across the board gain almost never happens unless money is cheap abundant or investors are convinced it soon will be. Even though the Fed has only delivered small cuts so far markets are behaving as if a full sustained easing cycle is already underway. Investors are effectively front running the next phase of policy assuming the coming months will bring lower yields expanding liquidity and stable inflation. Combine that with record"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980252498217636284) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T12:39Z 57.2K followers, 42.6K engagements


"The truth is theres no version of the world where every country just minds its own business peacefully if the U.S. steps back. Global power would just shift. If Washington isnt shaping the rules Beijing or Moscow will. Thats what rules based really means in practice: a post-WWII framework built around U.S. and allied influence that tries to make competition predictable with trade routes open currencies stable conflicts contained. Its not pure or evenly applied but it keeps the game organized. Remove that structure and you dont get fairness or independence; you get raw power filling the vacuum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980254412028227809) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T12:46Z 57.2K followers, 2628 engagements


"According @CNBC report the disruption began around 3:11 a.m. ET in AWSs US-East-1 region (Northern Virginia) which serves as the backbone for many global applications. AWS later confirmed it was caused by DNS issues linked to DynamoDB a database service that underpins countless internal systems and customer applications. By 6:35 a.m. AWS said the issue had been fully mitigated but by then the ripple effects had already cascaded across the internet taking down or degrading access to Amazon Venmo Disney+ Reddit Robinhood and even parts of major telecom and financial services. The failure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980293138116686275) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T15:20Z 57.2K followers, 19.3K engagements


"@levenson_david Awesome thanks for the reply David. Appreciate it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980395638178431274) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T22:08Z 57.2K followers, XXX engagements


"Weve moved from a period where almost no one wanted to sell to a new phase where plenty of people need to sell but buyers have disappeared. In June 2025 there were over half a million more active sellers than buyers the biggest gap ever recorded. Thats a sign that the psychology of the market has flipped. For the past few years homeowners stayed frozen in place because of rate lock they didnt want to give up their X% mortgage to buy something with a X% one. But now real life is forcing moves where people are changing jobs getting divorced downsizing retiring or just cant keep waiting."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980401996436767055) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T22:33Z 57.2K followers, 17.7K engagements


"For most of history the biggest XX companies in the S&P XXX made up around XX% of the index. Now theyre above XX% while the next XX biggest names have been shrinking fast. That is the structure of modern capitalism and markets reinforcing each other. The mega caps like Apple Microsoft Nvidia Amazon Google etc. global infrastructure. They control data cloud and AI pipelines and they make more money at scale than any previous generation of firms. Their margins cash flow and buybacks all attract even more capital. Meanwhile passive funds and benchmark tracking investors keep shoveling money into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980461333545165233) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-21T02:29Z 57.2K followers, 13.1K engagements


"Margin debt money investors borrow to buy stocks has exploded to a record $XXXX trillion jumping nearly XX% since spring. Thats the fastest five month rise since late 2021 right before markets rolled over. As Wolf Street points out its not the total level thats the problem its the speed and direction of the change. When margin debt surges from one record to the next in just a few months its usually a sign of speculative euphoria and complacency . Leverage is reflexive it amplifies everything. On the way up it creates its own demand: borrowed cash chases stocks higher lifting prices and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980468064765505961) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-21T02:55Z 57.2K followers, 18.1K engagements


"@SeanSewill Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources are already doing it Lynas has the only major non Chinese separation plant in Malaysia and is building a new one in Texas while Ilukas constructing Australias first fully integrated rare earth refinery with government backing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980468868612255911) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-21T02:59Z 57.2K followers, XXX engagements


"In Japans parliamentary system the cabinet is legally required to resign together when a new prime minister is about to take office. Its just procedure. Once the prime minister steps down the whole cabinet formally submits its resignation to make room for the next administration to form its own lineup. The outgoing ministers still handle day to day duties until the new cabinet is sworn in so theres no power vacuum. This has happened many times before. Every leadership change from Abe to Suga in 2020 Suga to Kishida in 2021 and even back in 2009 when the LDP lost to the Democratic Party"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980470335867703681) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-21T03:04Z 57.2K followers, 10.4K engagements


"What were seeing in Japans bond market right now is a full repricing of the countrys long term risk profile. The entire curve is rising but the steepest moves are on the long end the 30-year yield jumping to XXXX% while the short end (3 month) actually dipped which tells you this is about structural expectations shifting. With Sanae Takaichi positioned to take over as prime minister investors are bracing for an Abenomics style fiscal expansion on steroids: big defense budgets AI and semiconductor subsidies and looser fiscal discipline all while the Bank of Japan is clearly pulling back from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975368100351500520) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-07T01:10Z 57.2K followers, 90.6K engagements


"The Repricing of Trust in a Fractured Collateral System Gold hitting $4000 is the sign that the global financial system is starting to revalue gold as a form of collateral not just as a metal or hedge. The real story is about how institutions and central banks are quietly changing how gold fits into the plumbing of global finance. Collateral is about trust and liquidity. When a bank or clearinghouse accepts an asset as collateral its because that asset can be easily valued transferred and relied upon in times of stress. For decades U.S. Treasuries have been the foundation of that system"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975376584690250097) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-07T01:44Z 57.2K followers, 267.9K engagements


"What Record Repossessions Reveal About Americas Hidden Credit Crisis Whats happening in the auto market right now is the unraveling of one of the most overextended segments of consumer credit in the U.S. economy. Auto loans have ballooned into a $XXX trillion market second only to mortgages and the stress is finally breaking through the surface. More than X% of all car loans are now delinquent the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. And for subprime borrowers delinquency rates are exploding up XX% year over year according to Experian. Gen Z borrowers are getting hit hardest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1975657052992077834) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-07T20:18Z 57.2K followers, 89.7K engagements


"What Trump announced today a XXX% tariff on Chinese imports and new export controls on critical U.S. software is one of those moments that shifts the trajectory of the global economy whether or not its actually implemented. Even if these measures never fully take effect the threat alone changes how companies investors and governments behave. It signals that the worlds two largest economies are no longer trying to manage their rivalry theyre preparing to decouple. If it does go through the effects could be dramatic. Its not just a rerun of the trade wars from 2018 this would be more like a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976758886003593615) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T21:16Z 57.2K followers, 161.4K engagements


"The XX year Treasury is the backbone of the entire financial system the anchor that determines how expensive or cheap money feels across the economy. Its the reference point for almost every long term borrowing cost from mortgages to business loans because it reflects what markets believe about future inflation the Feds policy path and the premium investors demand to lend safely to the U.S. government for a decade. It is the foundation beneath every credit market shaping how risk is priced and how financial gravity works. When the XX year yield drops its usually a sign that investors expect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976775751035695134) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-10T22:24Z 57.2K followers, 32.6K engagements


"We suffer more in imagination than in reality. - Seneca Senecas words cut straight to the core of modern life. Most people are not undone by real hardship but by the endless loops of imagined pain they play in their own minds. We relive mistakes that no longer exist invent problems that havent arrived and interpret silence as judgment. The mind becomes its own tormentor creating storms that reality never brings. Every anxious thought every what if every mental rehearsal of disaster drains energy that could be spent actually living growing or creating. This is what makes Senecas insight so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976852395729535083) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-11T03:28Z 57.2K followers, 24.5K engagements


"A record XXX% of subprime auto loans being XX days past due is about the system finally feeling the full effect of the last few years of distortions. When car prices exploded in 202122 lenders stretched loan terms to six and seven years and financed vehicles far above their actual value. That paper looked safe at the time because stimulus money and wage gains were still floating around but as rates jumped and those cushions disappeared the math stopped working. Insurance gas and maintenance all surged too so even borrowers who could technically afford their cars on paper suddenly couldnt in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977522565062021603) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-12T23:51Z 57.2K followers, 23.8K engagements


"Whats happening with Nexperia goes way beyond a simple regulatory move by the Dutch government this is a front line moment in the global tech power struggle between the West and China. On paper the Netherlands says its stepping in because of administrative shortcomings and national security risks. But in reality this is about cutting off one of Chinas quiet backdoors into Western chip technology. Nexperia may be based in Europe but its owned by Chinas Wingtech and the fear is that valuable know how could end up back in Chinese hands. By freezing Nexperias corporate decisions and removing its"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977550998253060508) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T01:44Z 57.2K followers, 124.2K engagements


"Julius Baers losses tied to Germanys Degag Group reflect how deeply even conservative Swiss private banks got pulled into yield chasing during years of zero or negative rates. Degags business model was classic for that era: buy aging apartment buildings across northern Germany renovate them refinance at low rates and pocket the spread. But once rates shot higher and refinancing costs exploded the model broke. Projects that looked solid on paper a few years ago suddenly couldnt roll over their debt or sustain their valuations. Now that Degag has gone insolvent Julius Baer is left holding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977752632497176686) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T15:05Z 57.2K followers, 29.3K engagements


"Silvers rise right now is the result of monetary shifts industrial demand and geopolitical restructuring all colliding at once. To understand it you have to see silver as the bridge between two worlds: the old monetary system thats losing credibility and the new energy and technology systems being built to replace it. On the monetary side investors are moving back into hard assets as confidence in fiat systems erodes. Global debt loads are at record highs central banks are quietly cutting exposure to Treasuries and real yields are rolling over. Gold has broken to all time highs but silver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1977848563892637823) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-13T21:26Z 57.2K followers, 138.2K engagements


"This is why Powells hint about ending QT matters so much. QT drains reserves out of the system every week and with the reverse repo facility nearly empty theres less margin for error. When Powell says hes starting to see money market tightening hes effectively acknowledging that the Fed has hit the edge of how far it can push quantitative tightening without risking dysfunction in repo markets T-bill liquidity or bank reserve levels. Its the same pressure point that led to the September 2019 repo spike only now the balance sheet is much larger and the Treasurys financing needs are far heavier."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978154638567158094) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T17:43Z 57.2K followers, 271.2K engagements


"When Lower Rates Turn Toxic for Banks When rates fall sharply its easy to assume banks benefit because after all cheaper money should boost lending and lift bond prices. But in reality the first stage of a rate drop can be deeply painful for the banking system especially after two years of relentless tightening. Heres why. As yields fall the interest earned on floating rate loans and new assets drops almost instantly while deposit and funding costs take time to adjust. That lag compresses banks net interest margins the core of their profitability. The problem runs deeper when you look at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978169413041009021) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T18:41Z 57.2K followers, 24.7K engagements


"The Nonbank Lenders Holding Up Americas Housing Market Whats flying under the radar right now is how much of the U.S. mortgage system now depends on nonbank lenders and servicers the firms that actually handle payments defaults and liquidity behind the scenes. As of mid 2025 nonbanks hold roughly XX% of all agency backed mortgages and originate about two thirds of new loans a dominance that quietly reshaped housing finance over the past decade. These firms with names like Mr. Cooper PennyMac Rocket and NewRez stepped into the space big banks abandoned after 2008. But unlike traditional banks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978184734569029662) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T19:42Z 57.2K followers, 9984 engagements


"The Real Risk Behind a XX% Yield in a X% World A XXXXX% yield looks like a no brainer especially when Treasuries are offering somewhere around XXX% to XXX% across the curve. But when something promises more than double the risk free rate that spread is the market pricing in risk that investors might not fully understand. STRC isnt a Treasury a CD or even a corporate bond. Its a preferred security issued by Strategy Inc. which means youre not lending to the U.S. government or even to a diversified company youre lending to one firm on subordinate terms with no federal insurance no collateral"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978192790350639145) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T20:14Z 57.2K followers, 287.3K engagements


"The X year Treasury yield is like the bond markets heartbeat it moves ahead of the Fed and often signals where policy has to go not where policymakers want to go. When it drops this sharply its the market screaming that conditions are tightening faster than the Fed realizes. Traders are starting to price in rate cuts because they see something softening under the surface whether its slowing credit creation rising unemployment signals or liquidity getting pulled out of the system. The Fed tends to react with a lag but the X year doesnt wait; it reprices the future instantly. The key nuance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978232029205389314) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-14T22:50Z 57.2K followers, 62.3K engagements


"Im not saying its right or necessarily in the publics best interest but if were being honest to truly compete with China the U.S. will probably have to start operating more like China and that trend is likely to accelerate. Beijing doesnt deal with endless red tape congressional gridlock or the tug of war between state and private power. When it decides something is strategic like rare earths semiconductors shipbuilding and AI it aligns every lever of the state and private sector toward that goal. Banks local governments and corporations move in lockstep because the directive is to build"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978473540392288765) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-15T14:50Z 57.2K followers, 101K engagements


"Since 2019 Chinas money supply has exploded because its entire economic model runs on state directed credit. When growth stalls Beijing turns to its state banks and local governments to lend more refinance old debts and keep projects moving to maintain the appearance of stability. All that shows up as a massive jump in RMB money supply even when translated into dollars. But that liquidity mostly stays locked inside Chinas borders. It doesnt feed global demand; it just keeps Chinas internal financial plumbing from cracking. The U.S. on the other hand flooded the system with money during COVID"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978812702005858442) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T13:18Z 57.2K followers, 37.6K engagements


"The plumbing of the financial system is flashing signs of strain again but in a very specific part of it. Normally the secured overnight funding rate what big institutions pay to borrow cash overnight using Treasuries as collateral trades slightly below the Feds administered rates (like the fed funds rate or the interest paid on reserves IORB). Thats how its supposed to work: cash is abundant collateral is plentiful and secured funding is cheaper than unsecured lending. Now its flipped. SOFR has pushed above both the fed funds rate and IORB and the spread between SOFR and fed funds has spiked"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978828917713560002) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T14:22Z 57.2K followers, 112.6K engagements


"The Beige Books Quiet Signal: Americas Deflation Is Already Here Just Hidden Behind Policy Noise The October Beige Book paints the picture of an economy that is slowly deflating under the weight of structural imbalances disguised as stability. While the headline tone reads little change in activity what the report really describes is an underlying contraction in momentum masked by government backstops credit smoothing and tariff induced distortions. The pattern is classic late cycle disinflation where pricing power is fading inventories are rising quietly and firms unable to pass on costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978851367189172234) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T15:51Z 57.2K followers, 24K engagements


"The Market That Forgot How to Breathe: How Passive Flows and Demographics Rewired Capitalism At first glance the chart looks like a portrait of market sanity XX years of S&P XXX returns tracking almost perfectly with earnings growth and dividend yield. But that neat symmetry conceals a deeper structural shift where the markets center of gravity has moved from fundamentals to flows from human judgment to demographic mechanics. Since 2000 the financial system has been quietly reshaped by the convergence of two forces the mass retirement savings of the Boomer generation and the rise of passive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978866045562818661) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T16:50Z 57.2K followers, 21.8K engagements


"The X year yield is one of the clearest windows into how the market thinks the Fed will act next. It moves almost in lockstep with expectations for the federal funds rate over the next couple of years. So when it suddenly drops to its lowest level since 2022 its a signal that investors think the Fed will continue to ease rates going forward. The reason its falling so fast now is about stress creeping back into the financial system. When fears of regional bank contagion resurface money rushes into short term Treasuries for safety driving their yields down. That flight to safety also reflects"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978874457243697637) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T17:23Z 57.2K followers, 26K engagements


"Regional bank stocks are sliding again shows that the market is waking up to the underlying fragility in their balance sheets. When the X year yield falls this fast it usually means investors see a shift from inflation risk to credit risk. Thats bad news for smaller and mid sized banks because theyre heavily exposed to commercial real estate carry a lot of low yielding assets from the zero rate era and have to fund themselves in a much tighter environment now that emergency facilities like the Feds BTFP have expired. These banks are getting squeezed from both sides. Deposit costs are rising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1978877234057265565) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-16T17:34Z 57.2K followers, 174.3K engagements


"The 2y and 5y Treasury yields are like the bond markets early warning system theyre two of the most sensitive gauges of how investors see the economy interest rates and financial risk evolving over the next few years. The 2y is the most direct reflection of where markets think the Federal Reserves policy is heading. When it drops sharply its the bond markets way of saying that the Fed is going to have to cut rates sooner than they want to admit somethings breaking. The 5y on the other hand captures a blend of growth inflation and credit expectations its a window into how strong the economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979147477778399268) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T11:28Z 57.2K followers, 31.1K engagements


"Western Alliance and Zions Bancorp are symptoms of an increasingly fragile credit environment thats being stretched by higher rates tighter liquidity and deteriorating lending standards from the boom years of 20202022. When you see community and mid tier banks charging off tens of millions in commercial and industrial loans due to misrepresentations and contractual defaults or failed collateral positions its about how much leverage and trust got built into the system during the easy money cycle. The reason this matters is because regional banks sit at the heart of U.S. credit creation. They"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979159544262537346) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T12:16Z 57.2K followers, 21.1K engagements


"M2 money supply just hit a record $XXXX trillion but the real signal as @GeorgeGammon recently talked about is not the absolute level but the rate of change. The number itself tells us how much liquidity exists in the system but the slope of the curve tells us how fast that liquidity is being created or drained. And its that velocity and not the headline figure that drives credit cycles market risk appetite and inflation dynamics. M2 pushing to new highs might look inflationary but in context the pace of growth has cooled sharply since the pandemics flood of stimulus. The line may still be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979162625176145997) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T12:28Z 57.2K followers, 24.7K engagements


"SOFR rising back to XXXX% today is about short term liquidity tightening again after a brief lull. Earlier in the week overnight rates had dipped as the system was temporarily flooded with cash from Treasury coupon payments and settlements. But that liquidity was quickly pulled back out over the last two days as the Treasury General Account at the Fed rebuilt and new Treasury issuance settled. When the Treasury takes in funds those dollars move out of the banking system and into its account at the Fed which effectively drains reserves. At the same time theres been a steady supply of new"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979189263523815507) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T14:14Z 57.2K followers, 32.8K engagements


"Im excited to share that a guest post I wrote on the U.S. housing market was just published in The Pomp Letter. It breaks down the current state of the economy and where the housing market goes from here. Immense thanks to @APompliano for the opportunity to share this analysis with his audience. You can read it now on The Pomp Letter:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979222312948846840) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-17T16:25Z 57.2K followers, 8827 engagements


"China Chokepoints and the Price of Power: Centralize the Backbone Let the Rest Compete Beating China doesnt mean invasion or nukes the live issue is leverage through supply and tech chokepoints like chips critical minerals pharma precursors shipping cyber plus IP theft and influence campaigns. The realistic goal isnt to stop China at all costs but to cut dependence at key nodes raise the price of espionage and diversion and give the U.S. and allies room to set standards without being hostage to someone elses supply chain. The Upside If We Act Now Narrow export controls and investment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979595721574617182) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-18T17:09Z 57.2K followers, 10.4K engagements


"The Quiet Liquidity Shift Beneath the Feds Shrinking Balance Sheet The latest H.4.1 release reveals that quantitative tightening continues quietly reshaping the liquidity architecture of the financial system. Total Fed assets hover around $XXX trillion down more than $XXX billion year over year yet reserves remain abundant near $X trillion. The surface level stability masks a deep structural migration of liquidity: what once pooled in the Feds overnight reverse repo facility is now draining back into the banking system while the Treasurys cash account at the Fed the TGA has become the new"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979903999257051396) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-19T13:34Z 57.2K followers, 18.9K engagements


"Big investors are not randomly buying homes everywhere theyre concentrating in very specific parts of the country where their business model works best. Most of the darker counties form a kind of Sun Belt crescent running from Phoenix through Texas across the Southeast and up the I-85 corridor through Atlanta Charlotte and Raleigh. These are places with fast population growth lots of new single family subdivisions relatively cheap land and landlord friendly laws. Institutional owners need density they cant manage scattered homes across ten counties so they focus on metros where they can own"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1979967437953978562) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-19T17:46Z 57.2K followers, 30.9K engagements


"Spreads this tight means risk has repackaged. Corporate bonds look incredibly safe right now because the risk that used to live in credit has migrated into sovereign balance sheets and market structure. Governments are carrying the volatility while the largest issuers like mega caps utilities and financials have balance sheets that look almost government like. On top of that yields are still high enough that pension funds insurers and foreign investors dont need much spread to hit their targets. Theyre happy to buy XX% investment grade paper and hold it to maturity which keeps demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980046827543024040) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-19T23:02Z 57.2K followers, 61.8K engagements


"This shows how deeply passive capital now drives ownership and how it links companies that shouldnt move together. The top holders of CVNA and JEF are nearly identical with Vanguard index funds T. Rowe Fidelity iShares the big index complexes that allocate automatically across total market mid cap and growth funds. When a stock like CVNA rallies and climbs up the index ranks those same passive vehicles are forced buyers. Because JEF sits in many of those same index buckets both names get pulled higher by the same mechanical flow even though their fundamentals are totally different. Its a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980062133275750612) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T00:02Z 57.2K followers, 17.9K engagements


"In the past MMFs had trillions parked at the Fed they could lend into repo and keep rates anchored. That cushion is gone now banks with limited balance sheet space are the marginal lenders. So when SOFR stays above IORB it is a sign that liquidity is tightening and balance sheets are hitting their limits. How long can the system keep stretching before those balance sheet limits actually start to bite"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980307717819445369) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T16:18Z 57.2K followers, XXX engagements


"The bond market is quietly saying the economy is losing momentum. When yields drop like this across the curve especially with the XX year back below X% its a sign that both borrowers and lenders are pulling back. Households are hitting their limits with high credit card and loan rates businesses are delaying expansion and banks are tightening credit instead of growing it. In that kind of environment money itself gets cheaper not because the Fed is cutting rates but because fewer people want to borrow it. At the same time investors are shifting into longer term Treasuries for safety and income"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980389837447524516) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T21:45Z 57.2K followers, 110.4K engagements


"If unemployment starts rising faster than expected would your view change that well stay in a phase of suboptimal growth until mortgage rates fall enough to re-accelerate the economy and improve GDP to labor efficiency especially given the current lack of labor demand from mega tech"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980392395511664770) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T21:55Z 57.2K followers, 1996 engagements


"The Rare Earth Reset And How Trumps Australia Deal Rewires the Mineral Map The rare earth agreement President Trump just signed with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is about control over the industrial arteries of the 21st century. Rare earth elements power everything from missiles and F-35 jets to electric vehicles and semiconductors. They are rare because nearly all of them are processed in China. Thats the choke point. Defense industrial analysis warned that China could cut off 4050% of global supply overnight crippling the U.S. defense base and paralyzing modern manufacturing."  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980423078376063457) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-20T23:57Z 57.2K followers, 24.8K engagements


"This is the Army quietly testing a new model for how to rebuild its crumbling infrastructure and industrial base in a world where traditional federal funding cant keep up with its operational demands. With interest costs swallowing the budget and congressional gridlock slowing every major project the Army is trying to pull in private equity and infrastructure investors to finance what it cant get through appropriations fast enough. It is financial engineering for national security. The logic is simple but powerful. The Army has an enormous backlog of decaying barracks outdated depots fragile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1980493714830065932) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/x/onechancefreedm) 2025-10-21T04:37Z 57.2K followers, 9310 engagements