[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

[@joequant](/creator/twitter/joequant)
"@robin_j_brooks Finally I question whether supply-demand curves are a good model for any of this. It is clear that a there was an increase in trade in anticipation of the Trump tariffs. There are also a bunch of other factors post-COVID recovery"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947339764878770472) 2025-07-21 16:55:54 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@qiaohuanxin @Maytechummia No. Under US/China consular agreement if they gave him a visa with a US passport that is not grounds for keeping him in China. It is also possible that the person isn't involved in espionage activities but China has to make sure"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947320194503753885) 2025-07-21 15:38:08 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser And there are some good reasons to assume that the supply curve is a hockey stick. So if you look at how the China/US trade argument goes no one seems to care if the tariff is 10-30 percent. However once you raise it past XX percent trade suddenly collapses"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947485869885296807) 2025-07-22 02:36:28 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk remembered when you are getting advice from banks. I don't think it is a coincidence that Western economists tend to give advice that makes more money for Wall Street"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948289178921467958) 2025-07-24 07:48:32 UTC 1174 followers, XX engagements


"I am going to be very rude here since there really isn't any excuse for this sloppy research. After spending a few hours on the internet and finding that Nauru was importing tuna ships I went through the databases and looked at what everyone was importing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946506980753039845) 2025-07-19 09:46:43 UTC 1175 followers, 76.7K engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk Also if I had to go back in time to 2020 the policies that would be used for things like semiconductors would have been different. We are now in phase four or five of the "Big Fund" and if I went back to 2020 there are things about tech funding that would be very different"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948273741777260666) 2025-07-24 06:47:11 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"And the Paraguay - OMG Paraguay. They are importing Chinese tires like crazy and then when I looked at why I got into a rabbit hole. So Brazil puts a lot of tariffs on rubber tires so that means that Paraguay is a center for tires"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946508265824919918) 2025-07-19 09:51:49 UTC 1177 followers, 5718 engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks The reason I am interested is that I am working on the question "is the fungibility of cell phones related to why Trump can't put in big tariffs on phones""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448285943501002) 2025-07-22 00:07:07 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"At least I know *why* @robin_j_brooks thinks that things are the way they are. The problem with this model is that most exports are substituteable. The only export item that might be substitutable are cell phones and I am trying to think about what the supply/demand curve is"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947346960777699627) 2025-07-21 17:24:30 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@FrensWuiMade @robin_j_brooks @yieldsearcher Yeah because some of us actually work with Chinese exporters. In SZ there is no need to do anything weird because you are either shipping electronics which have a low tariffs or you are shipping solar or EV's that where subject to pre-Trump tariffs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947156210639351958) 2025-07-21 04:46:31 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk And the fiscal shift does meet the movement. China is keeping its powder dry because if Trump goes full trade war then you are going to need *MASSIVE* fiscal spending to keep the economy from contracting"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948277916992966992) 2025-07-24 07:03:47 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"Okay it is still wrong but not for the reasons I mentioned. The accounting identity is NCO = S - I = NX What happens is that when Japan invests a factory this is a negative outflow (i.e. an inflow) so NX has to be negative. but then we get into the definition of import"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948395645192323415) 2025-07-24 14:51:35 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Look back and see what we did wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947657005675716666) 2025-07-22 13:56:30 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk So you don't want to hit the credit card. Also I happen to believe that when it comes to economic advice China is listening more to Russian economists rather than American ones. There are a lot of similarities between Chinese fiscal/monetary policy now"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948277239587512574) 2025-07-24 07:01:05 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@GuthmannR Exactly and everything makes sense if you argue that the CNY is massively undervalued"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1939870837244592369) 2025-07-01 02:17:03 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher The big reason that people transship to Russia is to get around banking sanctions and not customs. So if I am a Chinese exporters and Putin wants to buy iPhones no bank in HK will touch the money. So I get an order from UAE. I don't know (or care) if the order"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947155080479916507) 2025-07-21 04:42:02 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks Use an aggregate supply/demand model for trade restrictions"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947449886246600931) 2025-07-22 00:13:29 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk If you go back XX years a lot of it would have been to do what they did but sooner. So start anti-corruption earlier also be more aggressive at trade deals with Taiwan between 2008 and 2016 and push for deeper mainland-Taiwan economic integration during this period"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948274086855262489) 2025-07-24 06:48:34 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"If you walk XXX meters there is a local govt office with a lot of billboards about how the real estate complex works so you have Costco there and then you surround it by new apartments"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948228477267907070) 2025-07-24 03:47:19 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks People keep underestimating the difficulty of pure transshipment. So suppose I do want to transship I have 10000 fans on a container to Long Bench. Just hiring people to change "made in China" to "made in Thailand" is non-trivial since you have to set that up"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947475515335700597) 2025-07-22 01:55:19 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"So one thing that is fascinating is how *different* Walmart and Costco are in Shenzhen (haven't visited Sam's Club). Walmart Shenzhen looks totally different from Walmart USA different brands different layout different everything"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948226510160294081) 2025-07-24 03:39:30 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks There are two things that I am trying to think through. First of all there was a burst of exports *before* the Trump tariffs. If you try to fit this in that means that the demand curve was shifting before the tariffs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947348518827434246) 2025-07-21 17:30:41 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @real_stevele No they don't if you have a Keynesian-shaped aggregate supply curve. Even assuming that you can model this with supply and demand what information do you have on the price elasticity if either the supply or the demand curve is horizontal then you don't have any price shift"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947341925595680848) 2025-07-21 17:04:29 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser The problem is that Europe screaming at China to change its economic model without offering any reason why it is in China's benefit to do so is just not going to work"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947533197040095471) 2025-07-22 05:44:32 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"I think making the rest of the world angry at the US is the type of candidate Americans want. Ultimately. Americans want a President of the United States rather than "leader of the world". If POTUS can improve the US bully other nations most American voters want that"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948310202865856943) 2025-07-24 09:12:04 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand And for the most part high tech investment in China today *doesn't* work with a pure sillicon valley VC model. There are a lot of differences to make it work in a Chinese environment. Just to name one big difference. There is not a huge IPO market in China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945748895793111308) 2025-07-17 07:34:21 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@Aslan_lin23 @Sakaushka @RnaudBertrand Which *does* happen. When a VC fund fails they send in the anti-corruption cops and sometimes they find interesting things"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945754879483646202) 2025-07-17 07:58:08 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The other thing is that you are making assumptions about the demand curve. If it turns out that demand is perfectly elastic then any shift in supply is just going to change output and not prices"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947333522664181797) 2025-07-21 16:31:06 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks And then there is the question of how flexible these curves are. My gut feeling is that the supply curves are relatively inflexible but the demand curves can move suddenly. Also this is all part of "dimensional reduction.""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947450116300017768) 2025-07-22 00:14:24 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@AngelicaOung I don't get the sense that anyone in Beijing is being moralistic. Part of the issue is that Beijing doesn't want to do an immediate bailout because that encourages local govts to go back to doing what they were before. The issue is that local govts have a huge debt backlog"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945774995453673472) 2025-07-17 09:18:04 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @VKMacro Also if you look at the month by month data you will see that there is a spike in exports that happened before US trade collapsed. This was due to preshipment which did move the demand curve"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947363474570695129) 2025-07-21 18:30:07 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser Or there was demand and you were just supply constrained. The problem with what you are doing is that you are making assumptions about the shape of the supply curve. The supply curve is a hockey stick then you have very different conclusions"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947485367055388795) 2025-07-22 02:34:28 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks And that misses the actual transshipment since anything that much of the stuff that ends up in Thailand is actually bound for Russia"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947476682631512141) 2025-07-22 01:59:58 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@dwarkesh_sp I think this has some explanation is that it explains why development in Philippines looks more than Latin America. One thing that the neo-Maoists point out is that even with the disaster of the Great Leap Forward in 1976 life expectancies were much higher than in 1949"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947466639831928879) 2025-07-22 01:20:03 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @real_stevele And that's not even taking into account impact on currency"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947342378530181386) 2025-07-21 17:06:17 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk But just pushing money to local governments is an absolute recipe for total disaster. See moral hazard and fiscal austerity"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948285083800175080) 2025-07-24 07:32:16 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks It's also the case that this is relevant for my day job"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947450204954996888) 2025-07-22 00:14:45 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Okay I've done more digging and this is all wrong. Let me write an article on this"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946506373245935620) 2025-07-19 09:44:18 UTC 1177 followers, 1559 engagements


"@Anything4UAnyt @robin_j_brooks Yes. At least I know *why* he has come to the conclusions he has. I think that he is using an economic model that doesn't accurately describe how things actually work. Right now I am trying to figure out if there is anything salvagable from the model"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947343285892354265) 2025-07-21 17:09:53 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks and no particular reason to assume that they all combine in one demand curve. The second thing is that China has been trying to increase demand all over the world. BRI projects are exist specifically to increase demand"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947329243488329929) 2025-07-21 16:14:05 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"One of my pet peeves is that people that look at Chinese tech policy assume that there is a single pool of money and they don't see how decentralized the institutions are. So the consequence of trying to "copy China" means that you end up with something like the Chips Act"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945443648222728590) 2025-07-16 11:21:24 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@TheBizCyclist @robin_j_brooks Also non electronic goods are not perishable. The reason Trump had to immediately reduce tariffs on electronics is that they are perishable and you have to air freight them immediately. For ship stuff it takes a month to ship so the name of the game is to schedule it"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946430741170323812) 2025-07-19 04:43:46 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So fig one is what he thinks is happening. Tariffs shifts supply curve and suddenly exporters have a big problem. The trouble is that he hasn't talked to any exporters and I have and I think the actual supply curve is a hockey stick"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653539800469949) 2025-07-22 13:42:44 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So you have a lot of small factories and they are price insensitive and make basically zero margin. Think of it this way you are on aliexpress and one factory sells the same product at $X less than another everyone goes to the cheaper one so the price curve is flat"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653832915472649) 2025-07-22 13:43:54 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"The cool think about Costco is that pretty much everything in Costco in the Shenzhen looks like Costco US. There are some differences in brands (I can't find my jugs of Kirkland Salsa) but its XX% the same as the Costco in US or for that matter in Taipei"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948227091637432688) 2025-07-24 03:41:49 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"So I am just super curious and I was wondering what Nauru was buying and I found it. Turns out that Nauru just bought a fleet of tuna fishing ships"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946495046947340295) 2025-07-19 08:59:17 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks Supply isn't but smart phones are fungible so if you had smart phones that were destined for the US you can sell them to Croatia by changing firmware. This isn't true for tuna boats. @robin_j_brooks economic model is wrong but I am trying to figure out *why* it is wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947447570911134062) 2025-07-22 00:04:17 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher Because EU to Russia is a completely different situation. Transshipment to the US doesn't work because US customs will notice and stop the shipment. If you move product through UAE that ends up in Russia Russian customs won't care"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947154540194845130) 2025-07-21 04:39:53 UTC 1177 followers, 2737 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Hit the hockey stick at which point things go boom and that seems to be the situation with Trump tariffs no one cares if tariffs are 10-30 percent it is only when it hits say XX percent and suddenly the world falls apart"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947655729827221734) 2025-07-22 13:51:26 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @VKMacro Whoa. What's the basis for saying demand doesn't spike like that"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947362920196935743) 2025-07-21 18:27:55 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@leogray01 @Glenn_Diesen Yeah. Lots of offshore money. The issue with Caymans/BVI is that they now enforce Russian sanctions. The new system is that Russians will get up HK companies but open up bank accounts in Dubai. The US still controls the HK banking system by controlling dollar access but"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947168334606434658) 2025-07-21 05:34:42 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Yes the US dollar system forces China to do stuff so people are working on fixing that"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946109564543492209) 2025-07-18 07:27:31 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"So I just posted me digging down and coming up with research showing that this is *totally wrong*. In fact all of these increases in trade have nothing to do directly with Trump tariffs and they were all things that were in the pipe. But rather than showing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946513843938906490) 2025-07-19 10:13:59 UTC 1178 followers, 5335 engagements


"@GlennLuk The semi-conspiracy theory is that the power elites want to keep the state weak and incompetent"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948272388506026066) 2025-07-24 06:41:49 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Found it Nauru just bought a fleet of Mainland Chinese tuna fishing ships. They had a fleet of Taiwanese built ships but after they changed diplomatic relations I think they may have gotten a gift"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946494782630674604) 2025-07-19 08:58:14 UTC 1178 followers, 1586 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The difference is between @robin_j_brooks and myself is that I live just an hour away from "Santa's Workshop" and I can tell you that he is factual wrong. Because I am a theoretical physicist I can then come up with a theory that explains why he is theoretically wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947659877624455461) 2025-07-22 14:07:55 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"Then after googling various combinations of Nauru China imports Nauru China trade I came on this site. And then I saw *WHOA* massive import of fishing ships. That's XX million USD and the next thing is 174k US in plastic housewares"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946808725274316875) 2025-07-20 05:45:44 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@dale_wen @AngelicaOung The problem is that right now Taiwan is demilitarized and the "German model" would involve the US putting bases in Taiwan which it agreed to withdraw in the 1970s. The model which I prefer is the EU-2010 model"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947161642245980289) 2025-07-21 05:08:06 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @dennisw5 The trouble is for you is that a lot of it happens to be true"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948302084916613521) 2025-07-24 08:39:49 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@OwnNothingBFree This is going to suck for Star Trek people like me but as long as we don't destroy life then humanity will survive"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948324340363300951) 2025-07-24 10:08:15 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"When they opened the first diagonal crosswalk in Shatin being bored I just visited it and went wild crossing diagonally"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946151306525376717) 2025-07-18 10:13:23 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The price curve is flat until you get capacity limits at which case it spikes up. So what happens with the trump tariffs basically nothing. So why did Chinese exports go up its because the non-US demand curve moved and you saw this in Q1 when non-US exports increased"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947654732941844745) 2025-07-22 13:47:28 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand This isn't where the tech transfer happened. What happened was that you had people that worked for VC firms that moved back to China and then started their own VC firms. The other thing is that Chinese VC rather differently than Western VC"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945747032687452486) 2025-07-17 07:26:57 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"Right now you have the World of Snacks. Early next month you have Cat Expo 2025"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946251949550219527) 2025-07-18 16:53:19 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand When you have a VC fund structure it is often an LGFV and then you have a lot of implicit liabilities and lines of control"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945750179648614911) 2025-07-17 07:39:27 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The other obvious problem is that you have an microeconomic supply curve. If you assume that aggregate supply is Keynesian then it is going to be horizontal where it hits AD and so if you shift it its not going to make any difference"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947337406405062662) 2025-07-21 16:46:32 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"I was rude toward someone that obvious doesn't understand trade. But speaking of trade if you ever visit Hong Kong go into the website of the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center because there is invariably a trade show going on there"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946250882074775841) 2025-07-18 16:49:04 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So I am trying to see if this can help trace out the shape of the supply and demand curves. A lot of economics reduces to drawing two lines and seeing how they cross and I am trying to figure out how if you can put some of trade dynamics into this language"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947350161774264510) 2025-07-21 17:37:13 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@GaryHaubold Except that it's not. You need to read my comments where I go through point by point at show that Brooks has no idea what he is talking about. Once you look at the mix of exports it becomes obvious that China started promoting non-US exports last year"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947322340921979150) 2025-07-21 15:46:40 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk Also there is a clear conflict of interest. If China issues a ton of bonds then bond traders and banks are going to make tons of money from fees. People in Wall Street aren't known for letting the common good override their financial interests and this has to be"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948288914651050191) 2025-07-24 07:47:29 UTC 1175 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk I don't know if that is his view but with regard to consumption/investment it is mine. You ***wont*** see a bigger number is fiscal stimulus since China is hitting X percent GDP targets and China does not want the economy to overheat"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948276596030521831) 2025-07-24 06:58:32 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @Brad_Setser The problem with economic intuition is that it might be just wrong. If you are here in Hong Kong people have been preparing for the Trump shock since 2018 and companies are diversifying supply chains and export partners"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947477367175451094) 2025-07-22 02:02:41 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@dwarkesh_sp The thing that is true with all East Asian societies that experienced a takeoff is that they all had a class revolution. In the case of Japan it was done by Douglas MacArthur rather than Mao"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947465300217368880) 2025-07-22 01:14:44 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Also all of the new growing industries in Shenzhen are XXX% tariffed anyway. EV and solar and none of that goes to the US"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946104125852471415) 2025-07-18 07:05:55 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@ColanMitchellAU @TheDailyMao @ElbridgeColby There is a lot of wink wink but this has its limits. What the US appears to want is a NATO situation where the US is in command of all Asia troops in a Taiwan situation but you really can't do that without explicitly getting rid of one China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947531771136119095) 2025-07-22 05:38:52 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @RobGandolfi Or a hunt by Chinese exporters to find new markets regardless what what happens with the US. Something to remember is that China intends to massive grow at X% per year for the next decade and there is no way that US and EU can absorb this growth. So China has been"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948307474500718909) 2025-07-24 09:01:14 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"One thing about NVidia being about to sell chips to China is that the Chinese govt wants foreign companies in China to kick the local companies into shape. This worked beautifully with Tesla and the Chinese govt wants NVidia in China so that Huawei gets a run for its money"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946341501203800512) 2025-07-18 22:49:09 UTC 1175 followers, 9410 engagements


"I am pretty shocked at how incompetent the EU is. So it looks like people figured that if they kissed Trump's rear end and said nasty things about China that Trump would give them a pass and it's not worked out that way"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946445514960232757) 2025-07-19 05:42:28 UTC 1178 followers, 1389 engagements


"@RebeccaYChan It depends on the company. Costco and Sam's Club are doing great as are American fast food places. The other thing is that Jeep is now owned by an Italian company and things have gone downhill"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947311394275119256) 2025-07-21 15:03:10 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"So I've been having a heated argument with @robin_j_brooks over the effects of the Trump tariffs on Chinese exporters. He argues based on macroeconomics that the tariffs must be hurting chinese exporters and I think he has his curves wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653179606544562) 2025-07-22 13:41:18 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks People should look at my rebuttal. Basically I argue that he has his supply curve wrong and if you change the shape of the supply curve the conclusion changes. Also China's growth model *isn't* critically dependent on exports"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947658957033800071) 2025-07-22 14:04:15 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Or maybe demand has changed and your theory is wrong. If you look at the trade data that I showed the increase in trade to many nations was doing to increase in exports. It's as if Chinese exporters knew that the US would be closing markets and developed new markets"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947327216892928266) 2025-07-21 16:06:02 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks This is a weird prediction and but its the weird predictions that are interesting so we see in six months. If it turns out that the US/China trade deficit is as large as always with a 30-50 percent tariff we have an explanation as to why. If that doesn't happen they we"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947656929507217744) 2025-07-22 13:56:12 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"Well back in the 2010's my view was that the Chinese govt was overly paranoid and that the US didn't have any evil intent against China. Turns out that I was the idiot. I've ended up on the side of Team China is that people in China aren't scheming about the end of the US"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795059128725637) 2025-07-20 04:51:26 UTC 1174 followers, 21.7K engagements


"When you have a theory about something it's worth spending some time digging and finding out if you are right. So I spent an hour digging the data and it looks like Nauru isn't *transshipping* Chinese goods but rather they just bought a fleet of tuna ships"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946497201511002554) 2025-07-19 09:07:51 UTC 1175 followers, 255.6K engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Oooohhh. China factories are too efficient and China has too much cash. Must be on the verge of economic collapse"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946108818989219897) 2025-07-18 07:24:34 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"how the US is hurting Chinese exporters and how China is so dependent on the American consumer once you do some research you find the *opposite* that China is the world manufacturing hub and is making tuna fish boats for Nauru LNG tankers for Qatar rubber tires for Paraguay"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946514532786176041) 2025-07-19 10:16:43 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@FabiusMaximus01 @Brad_Setser No. The problem with messing with currency values is that you end up with all sorts of unpredictable and dangerous consequences. I prefer tariffs over currency appreciation since the impact even when negative is clear"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1944038351889477762) 2025-07-12 14:17:16 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@real_stevele @robin_j_brooks I am of the opinion that a simple supply-demand model won't work"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947342191464223160) 2025-07-21 17:05:32 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Sakaushka @RnaudBertrand The thing about Chinese investment is that usually the capital structure is really really complicated so when a fund fails it is "Game of Thrones" time. But when they go after founders then XX% of the time they should"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945754404130525272) 2025-07-17 07:56:14 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @fredsoda social democracy. Also Gramsci (and Chomsky) argues that ideology is a means for the upper classes to keep the lower classes down. But I think you have this inherent class contradiction in the US"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948245573535981724) 2025-07-24 04:55:16 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@fteconomics Because most companies in China are cash rich they are much less sensitive to interest rates than Western companies. If you want to do stimulus you change the bank reserve rate or do fiscal stuff"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945694175380521183) 2025-07-17 03:56:55 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @Brad_Setser A lot of this involves just *selling*. Going to trade shows getting the names of distributors and then calling them up to buy your stuff. Also exporters tend to be supply limited and not demand limited"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947477757266694510) 2025-07-22 02:04:14 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks The second question that I am interested in is "can trade by explained in terms of aggregate supply and demand curves and if so what is the shape of the curve." So right now I am toying with the idea that yes and the curves have Keynesian shapes"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448714152579290) 2025-07-22 00:08:49 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk Arguable. I think most Americans would argue that the helicopter money went to the wrong people. Also one reason they did the "trade in" program and the Chinese govt like construction programs is that they help insure that the cash goes to the places they want"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948287163789201659) 2025-07-24 07:40:31 UTC 1175 followers, XX engagements


"My views change when I get new information. Two days ago I didn't know about Nauru fishing boats so this is what I did"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946807843405082899) 2025-07-20 05:42:14 UTC 1175 followers, 7349 engagements


"@GlennLuk @gdp1985 This kind of points out one problem with the US. Either something is crisis level or its ignored. Also Pan Gongsheng is not in charge of this He Lifeng is. One big difference between China and the US is that the head of the PBC has nowhere near the power that the Fed does"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945683738769383612) 2025-07-17 03:15:27 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"One fascinating thing is that the Costco card works worldwide so I use the same card I signed up for in Taipei and apparently that will work in an US store. It is just different strategies but both seem to be working"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948227406533472708) 2025-07-24 03:43:04 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk The last ten years has been able junking the old economic model and creating a new science and technology driven model that will insure X percent GDP growth for the next decade"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948278617659847062) 2025-07-24 07:06:34 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@not___a__bot @wmhuo168 You are allowed to trade bitcoin but you are not allowed to have a business trading bitcoin. Essentially they are putting bitcoin under the same rules as foreign exchange. You can't use anything other than RMB as payment"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946331657923186911) 2025-07-18 22:10:02 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk And the fact that you *CAN* go full trade war vastly increases both military and political leverage with the US"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948278136665481349) 2025-07-24 07:04:39 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks A lot of what is going on turns out to be pretty obvious once you are on the ground"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947476826751959536) 2025-07-22 02:00:32 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Before the Trump tariffs. Now there is graph X which I present as evidence that the supply curve is a hockey stick. So lets consider *US* exports and assume things to the other way. So what happens You have a XX% tariff and nothing happens. And nothing happens until you"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947655365581279456) 2025-07-22 13:49:59 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein That makes no sense. The US is already on top and if you blow up the system then there is a good chance that the US will end up shooting itself. Also if your strategy is to blow up the rest of the world I think most people would rather China be in charge"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946113241798906155) 2025-07-18 07:42:08 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks One problem is the shape of the supply curve. I would assume that you'd want a Keynesian aggregate supply curve in which case shifting the curve left or right won't make a difference"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947348107458498608) 2025-07-21 17:29:03 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@OwnNothingBFree One thing that evolution does is to provide diversity. So if we destroy the planet then people like me aren't going to inherit the earth but if we have nuclear war or environmental collapse then the Amish/Haredi/Salafists are the people that are going to win"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948324011143991668) 2025-07-24 10:06:57 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@RnaudBertrand Also you have a lot of Chinese working in VC and IB firms in Silicon Valley and Wall Street and maybe learned something. The other thing about VC is that it really isn't that much about skill. It's about networking and then figuring out how to pitch people"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945746207072199126) 2025-07-17 07:23:40 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein @jakluge @Brad_Setser Also you can see the debate over whether China in fact is fudging current surplus data. I think that it isn't based on me being in HK crypto which means it becomes immediately obvious which direction the money is flowing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948041812045697522) 2025-07-23 15:25:35 UTC 1175 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks For Switzerland the main imports are Gold and nitrogen heterocyclic compounds and commodities not otherwise specified. Looks like drug precursors"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946779100737364099) 2025-07-20 03:48:01 UTC 1178 followers, 2591 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks This is all wrong. The issue is that non-US goods are not substitutable for US goods and so if you have a supply shock on US exports it doesn't change the supply curve for non-US goods"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947332137902035106) 2025-07-21 16:25:36 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@MarketBlondes @Brad_Setser Changes in the economy. Because 2015 China would buy high tech stuff from Germany and sell low tech stuff back. The trouble is that after 2020 China went heavy into high tech"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948354733804253315) 2025-07-24 12:09:01 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So all models are wrong but some models are useful. Part of the reason you have models is so you can make predictions. So if this model is right then it makes the prediction that *Trump tariffs will not affect Chinese imports* as long as it is in the flat area"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947656515411705893) 2025-07-22 13:54:33 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Much of the spike is preshipment and in the case of EU the possibility that EU will sharply raise tariffs to get some deal with Trump. If you are an importer it is a no brainer to buy now because you don't know what the numbers are if you wait"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946431904536047765) 2025-07-19 04:48:23 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks And then you have to have a distributor that plays along. If the items get to Long Beach and customs looks at this and says "wait they don't make iPhones in Thailand" at that point the distributor is totally hosed. Not only is that shipment getting seized but"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947475938171863178) 2025-07-22 01:57:00 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks If you can't sell at the lowest price you go out of business. Also Chinese exporters are supply constrained. So they will take as many orders as they can and they are usually overbooked. So when a US customer cancels then have another non-US customer they can sell to"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947654174080176622) 2025-07-22 13:45:15 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein You have a billion Africans lots of Arabs and maybe a billion Indians and that's not counting Latin America. Global south can't settle trade with their own currencies so maybe we just need to redo the world currency system"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946109389364175012) 2025-07-18 07:26:50 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein If the US stops running trade deficits then you don't have a source of dollars to work as the reserve currency. The fact that Trump is going after China over trade deficits just blows up the entire system. If the US insists on balanced trade then China has to adjust"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946111106482831472) 2025-07-18 07:33:39 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk One thing that is pretty clear to me is that the decision to let Evergrande and Country Garden collapse was specifically so that capital would move out of real estate into tech"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1943553884347371782) 2025-07-11 06:12:10 UTC 1178 followers, 1622 engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand But it's mostly wrong. Most of the idea transfer happened with Chinese (like me) that worked in Wall Street and SV. Also the money came from Chinese investors the associates where Chinese and you had Chinese founders in SV and Wall Street"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945748365695979649) 2025-07-17 07:32:15 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"The fascinating thing is that no one in China gives a crap about AGI. People are interested in AI for immediate practical things like lowering customer support costs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945347788541419617) 2025-07-16 05:00:30 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"The Chinese lack of *a* and *the* is part of this funny clip"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946464098155405394) 2025-07-19 06:56:19 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser Think about going to aliexpress if you have another factory that sells the same item for XXXX cents less you go with them. What this means is that the market is perfectly elastic. At which point if you move the supply curve left and right nothing happens"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947483473511649375) 2025-07-22 02:26:57 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks Also some of this is set up to show how people think. I believed (and still believe) that @robin_j_brooks started with a desired conclusion (the tariffs are hurting China) and then came up with a model to support the conclusion"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947449363892195572) 2025-07-22 00:11:24 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks Its hard to model any sort of complex system but its cool when you have something that sort of works. One thing you can try to to see if you can break apart the system"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947457124390604951) 2025-07-22 00:42:15 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@denisewu This is false. You can look at the nationality law for details. But whether you are a Chinese national depends on whether or not your parents were permanent residents or citizens at the time of birth"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947158383683137934) 2025-07-21 04:55:09 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks All models are wrong. Some models are useful. So I am thinking like a physicist. You have a simplified model of economic behavior that is making incorrect predictions. So trying to think through *why* is useful"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947447801534943439) 2025-07-22 00:05:12 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @RobGandolfi Looking at the global south for long term growth"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948307686665203713) 2025-07-24 09:02:04 UTC 1178 followers, X engagements


"So the thing that I noticed was that this was a huge amount for a small country. It's a good fraction of GDP so I figured that there was some interesting story here. So I picked up google and started looking at Nauru govt sites to see if there was anything"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946808203683205240) 2025-07-20 05:43:40 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"So it turns out that *none* of this has to do with transshipment or exporters and it looks like people are just buying more stuff from China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946509205764297204) 2025-07-19 09:55:33 UTC 1177 followers, 5682 engagements


"@GlennLuk And that opens the question of whether all of the tools that Western economists like are simple blunt tools that reflect a lack of institutional capacity and are intended to reinforce lack of institutional capacity"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948272167126192620) 2025-07-24 06:40:56 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"So the Chinese political system is trying to optimize for maximum social benefit. If it turns out that creating mega-clusters does create AGI then China can do that very quickly but this hasn't been proven and right now China is focusing more on applications of AI"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795984404795487) 2025-07-20 04:55:07 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@BarrettYouTube Also the Chinese govt is much more positive toward crypto than you would think. Once you understand what they want then you can figure out how to work with them"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946441821892247908) 2025-07-19 05:27:48 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"One reason Costco Shenzhen is getting visits is lots of shoppers from Hong Kong. In HK you can get the Japanese or British supermarket experience but there aren't American superstores. The other thing about Costco Shenzhen is that its part of a integrated real estate center"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948227955135525008) 2025-07-24 03:45:15 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The reason cell phone and electronics is interesting is I am wondering if the fact that they are can be moved easily from US to non-US changes accounts for why Trump caved in so quickly"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947349162443653409) 2025-07-21 17:33:14 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks I am trying to see if I can make some of the actual dynamics fit in the language of supply and demand. So what seems to be the case is that exporters really don't mind increased tariffs of XX or XX percent but once you hit XX or XX then the supply curve just drops to zero"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947349574466867702) 2025-07-21 17:34:53 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Nope. In the case of Nauru it is a "gift" from Beijing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946003389558710511) 2025-07-18 00:25:37 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser The factories in SZ operate at almost no margin because you have a situation close to perfect competition. So if you have a demand shock factories go out of business. But then the workers go to other factories"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947484122886320473) 2025-07-22 02:29:32 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein @jakluge @Brad_Setser Motivated reasoning. If you want to believe something to be true then you can always explain away the data which then begs the question of why you were looking at the data in the first place"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948031311123546180) 2025-07-23 14:43:51 UTC 1175 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Also its funny you talk about transshipment whereas pretty much everything that goes through HK is transshipped so you really need to add CH+HK"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947339975550226620) 2025-07-21 16:56:44 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"Qatar just bought a new fleet of LNG tankers from China Bulgaria trade is batteries and they just set up a new plant for BYD Hungary is commodites not otherwise specificed and batteries - they have a BYD plant Jordan is importing cars Jamaica is doing steel"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946507825460699306) 2025-07-19 09:50:04 UTC 1176 followers, 6146 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Okay I just did some digging and it appears that in May 2025 someone on Nauru bought fishing ships from China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946492772514681238) 2025-07-19 08:50:15 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk And Russian policy and a lot of Chinese fiscal policy can been seen through the lens of national security. China wants to keep deficits and debt low so if there is a trade/military crisis it has enough fiscal reserve"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948277473931878784) 2025-07-24 07:02:01 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"So I am looking at youtube videos for low low prices in tires in Paraguay and cell phones and then turns out everything is made in China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946508903568871869) 2025-07-19 09:54:21 UTC 1177 followers, 5406 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher Goes to Russia or Mars. All I care about is that the bank gets the wire from Dubai and this goes in my account. So I ship my iPhones to UAE or Thailand and if they resell to Russia none of my concern"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947155483854590217) 2025-07-21 04:43:38 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@Glenn_Diesen Also you note that China started dropping during Trump XXX and my thesis is that the inflation during COVID was due to China and Russia refusing to fund the US. Because the US can't get cash from China and Russia it is desperately trying to squeeze money from its "allies""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947166994014572884) 2025-07-21 05:29:22 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@thecyrusjanssen What is funny/sad/scary is that you just remove the name China and replace the name Russia Iran Iraq Afghanistan and you end up with the same report"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946794516209656196) 2025-07-20 04:49:17 UTC 1176 followers, 2005 engagements


"So first of all the diagrams are misleading and you see this spike right after 2025 but then the whole diagram is spiky so after going through the databases I found"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946507273284788679) 2025-07-19 09:47:52 UTC 1176 followers, 5680 engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein China is going super into high tech right now. We aren't peasants growing rice. Global trust You are kidding me. Look I try to be polite but people are so *delusional* that it's hard for me to stomach it. You believe what you want and I'll just wait for reality to hit"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946106496619798831) 2025-07-18 07:15:20 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks So among the issues 1) he is assuming a form for the supply/demand curve 2) no account for currency depreciation 3) fungibility issues"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448040467697736) 2025-07-22 00:06:09 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"Funding in China is incredibly decentralized because you have different funders and govts each with different pools of capital. One reason I think the why the system works is that the people that decide priorities aren't the people that decide funding"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945445406202359898) 2025-07-16 11:28:24 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks First of all I don't trust AI to do research. AI gets things wrong. For example I've posted the fishing boat registry. Yes my story does change every day. It's called learning new stuff and changing my views to fit the facts and new information"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946807114623828092) 2025-07-20 05:39:20 UTC 1178 followers, 4487 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks If you look at the sectors that China is exporting in and the deals you will see that most of them were set up *before* Trump did his tariffs which means that you would see an export bump without Trump and this makes sense because with all of the talk about decoupling"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783456039784946) 2025-07-20 04:05:20 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"HAHAHAHAHA. Funny to have someone argue that you don't exist. He is arguing that China can't surpass the US because somehow the US has this monopoly on creativity and dynamism. (i.e. people like me don't exist in China)"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946798678578249750) 2025-07-20 05:05:49 UTC 1177 followers, 1705 engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk Also one big reason that the Central Government does not want to increase fiscal spending is Donald Trump. If Trump starts another trade war or God forbid we get ourselves in a shooting war over Taiwan CG will need to push fiscal spending through the roof"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948276970573418591) 2025-07-24 07:00:01 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @fredsoda The idea is that *you* are a winner so you should support the ruling class against the losers. The trouble is that when everyone has been promised to be a winner and then you have to cash the cheques"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948245831376855294) 2025-07-24 04:56:17 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@IAmArcIvanov @Brad_Setser Personally I think it all will make sense if the US cuts defense spending massively. Something *WILL* break and it might be dramatic"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946442885265859014) 2025-07-19 05:32:01 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Also you forget one big thing. The US is *unwilling* to run trade deficits with China. So the system is over. Trump wants the US to stop running trade deficits at which point the *whole freaking system falls apart*. People in China are working on the new system"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946110277067608401) 2025-07-18 07:30:21 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"Here is the counterargument. The numbers show that the state banks have dollars. There is no breakdown in who controls the dollars. The Chinese currency system is such so that anyone with dollars can move them into a state bank"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948348112696918368) 2025-07-24 11:42:43 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser But that means that if a US customer backs out they have a customer from somewhere else that wants to buy their stuff. Also they because they are in a situation of perfect competition they have infinite price elasticity"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947482903749005330) 2025-07-22 02:24:41 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements