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[@joequant](/creator/twitter/joequant)
"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser And there are some good reasons to assume that the supply curve is a hockey stick. So if you look at how the China/US trade argument goes no one seems to care if the tariff is 10-30 percent. However once you raise it past XX percent trade suddenly collapses"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947485869885296807) 2025-07-22 02:36:28 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk remembered when you are getting advice from banks. I don't think it is a coincidence that Western economists tend to give advice that makes more money for Wall Street"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948289178921467958) 2025-07-24 07:48:32 UTC 1174 followers, XX engagements


"I am going to be very rude here since there really isn't any excuse for this sloppy research. After spending a few hours on the internet and finding that Nauru was importing tuna ships I went through the databases and looked at what everyone was importing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946506980753039845) 2025-07-19 09:46:43 UTC 1178 followers, 76.8K engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk Also if I had to go back in time to 2020 the policies that would be used for things like semiconductors would have been different. We are now in phase four or five of the "Big Fund" and if I went back to 2020 there are things about tech funding that would be very different"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948273741777260666) 2025-07-24 06:47:11 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks The reason I am interested is that I am working on the question "is the fungibility of cell phones related to why Trump can't put in big tariffs on phones""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448285943501002) 2025-07-22 00:07:07 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser And after the few decades we will be moving to a Star Trek: TOS world. China should be landing a crewed mission to the moon by 2030 and there are plans for lunar bases. We then go to Mars and start asteroid mining"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948555196558442831) 2025-07-25 01:25:35 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"At least I know *why* @robin_j_brooks thinks that things are the way they are. The problem with this model is that most exports are substituteable. The only export item that might be substitutable are cell phones and I am trying to think about what the supply/demand curve is"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947346960777699627) 2025-07-21 17:24:30 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk And the fiscal shift does meet the movement. China is keeping its powder dry because if Trump goes full trade war then you are going to need *MASSIVE* fiscal spending to keep the economy from contracting"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948277916992966992) 2025-07-24 07:03:47 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"Okay it is still wrong but not for the reasons I mentioned. The accounting identity is NCO = S - I = NX What happens is that when Japan invests a factory this is a negative outflow (i.e. an inflow) so NX has to be negative. but then we get into the definition of import"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948395645192323415) 2025-07-24 14:51:35 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Look back and see what we did wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947657005675716666) 2025-07-22 13:56:30 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"I would argue that this profoundly changes US politics. In the 1980's the US couldn't withdraw from the Middle East but now it can. But conversely because the US no longer has any "rational" reasons to be involved in the Middle East"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948614375809712175) 2025-07-25 05:20:45 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk Point taken. It is not mass production like Iphones but there is a lot of stuff where he took custom designed systems and then reproduced them. This only works when you have to put up large numbers of satellites hence Starlink"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948643671773249854) 2025-07-25 07:17:10 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk So you don't want to hit the credit card. Also I happen to believe that when it comes to economic advice China is listening more to Russian economists rather than American ones. There are a lot of similarities between Chinese fiscal/monetary policy now"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948277239587512574) 2025-07-24 07:01:05 UTC 1174 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks Use an aggregate supply/demand model for trade restrictions"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947449886246600931) 2025-07-22 00:13:29 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk If you go back XX years a lot of it would have been to do what they did but sooner. So start anti-corruption earlier also be more aggressive at trade deals with Taiwan between 2008 and 2016 and push for deeper mainland-Taiwan economic integration during this period"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948274086855262489) 2025-07-24 06:48:34 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"If you walk XXX meters there is a local govt office with a lot of billboards about how the real estate complex works so you have Costco there and then you surround it by new apartments"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948228477267907070) 2025-07-24 03:47:19 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser Yeah and it's going to keep growing for the next 30-50 years. Basically China's economic policy now looks a lot like the US economic policy in 1950 and that's going to produce growth for the next few decades"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948554723197681947) 2025-07-25 01:23:43 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks People keep underestimating the difficulty of pure transshipment. So suppose I do want to transship I have 10000 fans on a container to Long Bench. Just hiring people to change "made in China" to "made in Thailand" is non-trivial since you have to set that up"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947475515335700597) 2025-07-22 01:55:19 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"So one thing that is fascinating is how *different* Walmart and Costco are in Shenzhen (haven't visited Sam's Club). Walmart Shenzhen looks totally different from Walmart USA different brands different layout different everything"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948226510160294081) 2025-07-24 03:39:30 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser The problem is that Europe screaming at China to change its economic model without offering any reason why it is in China's benefit to do so is just not going to work"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947533197040095471) 2025-07-22 05:44:32 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"I think making the rest of the world angry at the US is the type of candidate Americans want. Ultimately. Americans want a President of the United States rather than "leader of the world". If POTUS can improve the US bully other nations most American voters want that"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948310202865856943) 2025-07-24 09:12:04 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand And for the most part high tech investment in China today *doesn't* work with a pure sillicon valley VC model. There are a lot of differences to make it work in a Chinese environment. Just to name one big difference. There is not a huge IPO market in China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945748895793111308) 2025-07-17 07:34:21 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"This is false. China was absolutely committed to phase one. The plan on the China side was to buy US agriculture tech and energy resources and then sell those products to China. I don't think this would have worked in the end but the plan was taken in good faith"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948590253473972635) 2025-07-25 03:44:54 UTC 1178 followers, 2439 engagements


"One big of interesting geostrategy is the role of oil. China became a net importer of oil in the 1990's and one thing that has happened to change politics is that the US is now a net exporter of oil and this happened in the 2010's"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948614096804610274) 2025-07-25 05:19:38 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein China has massive domestic markets and can withstand a shutdown in US exports. China's vulnerable has to do with food and fuel but that is where Russia comes in"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946103989243916644) 2025-07-18 07:05:22 UTC 1174 followers, XX engagements


"@Aslan_lin23 @Sakaushka @RnaudBertrand Which *does* happen. When a VC fund fails they send in the anti-corruption cops and sometimes they find interesting things"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945754879483646202) 2025-07-17 07:58:08 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The other thing is that you are making assumptions about the demand curve. If it turns out that demand is perfectly elastic then any shift in supply is just going to change output and not prices"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947333522664181797) 2025-07-21 16:31:06 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@AngelicaOung I don't get the sense that anyone in Beijing is being moralistic. Part of the issue is that Beijing doesn't want to do an immediate bailout because that encourages local govts to go back to doing what they were before. The issue is that local govts have a huge debt backlog"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945774995453673472) 2025-07-17 09:18:04 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @VKMacro Also if you look at the month by month data you will see that there is a spike in exports that happened before US trade collapsed. This was due to preshipment which did move the demand curve"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947363474570695129) 2025-07-21 18:30:07 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser Or there was demand and you were just supply constrained. The problem with what you are doing is that you are making assumptions about the shape of the supply curve. The supply curve is a hockey stick then you have very different conclusions"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947485367055388795) 2025-07-22 02:34:28 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks And that misses the actual transshipment since anything that much of the stuff that ends up in Thailand is actually bound for Russia"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947476682631512141) 2025-07-22 01:59:58 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@dwarkesh_sp I think this has some explanation is that it explains why development in Philippines looks more than Latin America. One thing that the neo-Maoists point out is that even with the disaster of the Great Leap Forward in 1976 life expectancies were much higher than in 1949"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947466639831928879) 2025-07-22 01:20:03 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @real_stevele And that's not even taking into account impact on currency"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947342378530181386) 2025-07-21 17:06:17 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk But just pushing money to local governments is an absolute recipe for total disaster. See moral hazard and fiscal austerity"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948285083800175080) 2025-07-24 07:32:16 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Okay I've done more digging and this is all wrong. Let me write an article on this"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946506373245935620) 2025-07-19 09:44:18 UTC 1175 followers, 1561 engagements


"@Anything4UAnyt @robin_j_brooks Yes. At least I know *why* he has come to the conclusions he has. I think that he is using an economic model that doesn't accurately describe how things actually work. Right now I am trying to figure out if there is anything salvagable from the model"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947343285892354265) 2025-07-21 17:09:53 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"One of my pet peeves is that people that look at Chinese tech policy assume that there is a single pool of money and they don't see how decentralized the institutions are. So the consequence of trying to "copy China" means that you end up with something like the Chips Act"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945443648222728590) 2025-07-16 11:21:24 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@TheBizCyclist @robin_j_brooks Also non electronic goods are not perishable. The reason Trump had to immediately reduce tariffs on electronics is that they are perishable and you have to air freight them immediately. For ship stuff it takes a month to ship so the name of the game is to schedule it"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946430741170323812) 2025-07-19 04:43:46 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So fig one is what he thinks is happening. Tariffs shifts supply curve and suddenly exporters have a big problem. The trouble is that he hasn't talked to any exporters and I have and I think the actual supply curve is a hockey stick"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653539800469949) 2025-07-22 13:42:44 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So you have a lot of small factories and they are price insensitive and make basically zero margin. Think of it this way you are on aliexpress and one factory sells the same product at $X less than another everyone goes to the cheaper one so the price curve is flat"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653832915472649) 2025-07-22 13:43:54 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser But China was very serious about balancing trade. The problem is that I don't think that the US understood what China was planning which is where I can be useful"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948589625016287530) 2025-07-25 03:42:24 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"The cool think about Costco is that pretty much everything in Costco in the Shenzhen looks like Costco US. There are some differences in brands (I can't find my jugs of Kirkland Salsa) but its XX% the same as the Costco in US or for that matter in Taipei"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948227091637432688) 2025-07-24 03:41:49 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"So I am just super curious and I was wondering what Nauru was buying and I found it. Turns out that Nauru just bought a fleet of tuna fishing ships"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946495046947340295) 2025-07-19 08:59:17 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks Supply isn't but smart phones are fungible so if you had smart phones that were destined for the US you can sell them to Croatia by changing firmware. This isn't true for tuna boats. @robin_j_brooks economic model is wrong but I am trying to figure out *why* it is wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947447570911134062) 2025-07-22 00:04:17 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Hit the hockey stick at which point things go boom and that seems to be the situation with Trump tariffs no one cares if tariffs are 10-30 percent it is only when it hits say XX percent and suddenly the world falls apart"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947655729827221734) 2025-07-22 13:51:26 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @VKMacro Whoa. What's the basis for saying demand doesn't spike like that"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947362920196935743) 2025-07-21 18:27:55 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@leogray01 @Glenn_Diesen Yeah. Lots of offshore money. The issue with Caymans/BVI is that they now enforce Russian sanctions. The new system is that Russians will get up HK companies but open up bank accounts in Dubai. The US still controls the HK banking system by controlling dollar access but"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947168334606434658) 2025-07-21 05:34:42 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"So I just posted me digging down and coming up with research showing that this is *totally wrong*. In fact all of these increases in trade have nothing to do directly with Trump tariffs and they were all things that were in the pipe. But rather than showing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946513843938906490) 2025-07-19 10:13:59 UTC 1178 followers, 5335 engagements


"@Brad_Setser So the plan on the Chinese side was to buy US ag tech and energy resources in the same way they are buying African resources. The *problem* is that this would not have worked. Once China started buying stuff the US would have freaked out"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948589395302637675) 2025-07-25 03:41:29 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk The semi-conspiracy theory is that the power elites want to keep the state weak and incompetent"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948272388506026066) 2025-07-24 06:41:49 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Found it Nauru just bought a fleet of Mainland Chinese tuna fishing ships. They had a fleet of Taiwanese built ships but after they changed diplomatic relations I think they may have gotten a gift"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946494782630674604) 2025-07-19 08:58:14 UTC 1178 followers, 1593 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The difference is between @robin_j_brooks and myself is that I live just an hour away from "Santa's Workshop" and I can tell you that he is factual wrong. Because I am a theoretical physicist I can then come up with a theory that explains why he is theoretically wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947659877624455461) 2025-07-22 14:07:55 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"The reasons why its there are people quoting verses from the Bible which is kind of scary. Big oil companies are bastards but they draw the line at suicidal nuclear war. Also the fact that Saudi Arabia is now a net importer of oil also changes things"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948614749052457344) 2025-07-25 05:22:14 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"Then after googling various combinations of Nauru China imports Nauru China trade I came on this site. And then I saw *WHOA* massive import of fishing ships. That's XX million USD and the next thing is 174k US in plastic housewares"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946808725274316875) 2025-07-20 05:45:44 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"And I learned about the Paraguayian tire industry. At this point my investment bank background kicks in. So why is Paraguay a center for cheap tires"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946809653922607307) 2025-07-20 05:49:26 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @dennisw5 The trouble is for you is that a lot of it happens to be true"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948302084916613521) 2025-07-24 08:39:49 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@OwnNothingBFree This is going to suck for Star Trek people like me but as long as we don't destroy life then humanity will survive"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948324340363300951) 2025-07-24 10:08:15 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"When they opened the first diagonal crosswalk in Shatin being bored I just visited it and went wild crossing diagonally"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946151306525376717) 2025-07-18 10:13:23 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@GeorgieSpirit It is also the problem with capitalism. *wink*"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948647616318959759) 2025-07-25 07:32:50 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @justwannasayth2 I found it. Tuna ships. Also this gets me down the rabbit whole of tuna fishing in the Pacific. This also shows the dangers of jumping to conclusions since there is nothing here that suggests anything to do with the trade war"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946495385125707869) 2025-07-19 09:00:38 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"So one thing that is cool about HK is that it is a city-state so you are in the middle of global geopolitics but then sometimes little things make big news. For example that they are going to have more diagonal crosswalks"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946150622497317299) 2025-07-18 10:10:40 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The price curve is flat until you get capacity limits at which case it spikes up. So what happens with the trump tariffs basically nothing. So why did Chinese exports go up its because the non-US demand curve moved and you saw this in Q1 when non-US exports increased"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947654732941844745) 2025-07-22 13:47:28 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser 1) Lots of people own Tesla stock 2) Lots of people (i.e. pretty much anyone in Wall Street) make money when Tesla stocks go up. It is up to the US to decide what to trade with China but saying that China is keeping its markets closed is just false"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948591934601392508) 2025-07-25 03:51:34 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"Right now you have the World of Snacks. Early next month you have Cat Expo 2025"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946251949550219527) 2025-07-18 16:53:19 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand When you have a VC fund structure it is often an LGFV and then you have a lot of implicit liabilities and lines of control"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945750179648614911) 2025-07-17 07:39:27 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The other obvious problem is that you have an microeconomic supply curve. If you assume that aggregate supply is Keynesian then it is going to be horizontal where it hits AD and so if you shift it its not going to make any difference"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947337406405062662) 2025-07-21 16:46:32 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"I was rude toward someone that obvious doesn't understand trade. But speaking of trade if you ever visit Hong Kong go into the website of the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center because there is invariably a trade show going on there"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946250882074775841) 2025-07-18 16:49:04 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So I am trying to see if this can help trace out the shape of the supply and demand curves. A lot of economics reduces to drawing two lines and seeing how they cross and I am trying to figure out how if you can put some of trade dynamics into this language"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947350161774264510) 2025-07-21 17:37:13 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk Also there is a clear conflict of interest. If China issues a ton of bonds then bond traders and banks are going to make tons of money from fees. People in Wall Street aren't known for letting the common good override their financial interests and this has to be"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948288914651050191) 2025-07-24 07:47:29 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@e_sicnarf COVID was not planned. but blowing up tech firms was collateral damage from blowing up the real estate asset bubble so a lot of that was planned. It's US-2025 vs. PRC-2025. Things were different in 1985 and they likely will be different in 2050. The reason the US is chaotic"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948600778576593191) 2025-07-25 04:26:43 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk I don't know if that is his view but with regard to consumption/investment it is mine. You ***wont*** see a bigger number is fiscal stimulus since China is hitting X percent GDP targets and China does not want the economy to overheat"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948276596030521831) 2025-07-24 06:58:32 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @Brad_Setser The problem with economic intuition is that it might be just wrong. If you are here in Hong Kong people have been preparing for the Trump shock since 2018 and companies are diversifying supply chains and export partners"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947477367175451094) 2025-07-22 02:02:41 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@dwarkesh_sp The thing that is true with all East Asian societies that experienced a takeoff is that they all had a class revolution. In the case of Japan it was done by Douglas MacArthur rather than Mao"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947465300217368880) 2025-07-22 01:14:44 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@ColanMitchellAU @TheDailyMao @ElbridgeColby There is a lot of wink wink but this has its limits. What the US appears to want is a NATO situation where the US is in command of all Asia troops in a Taiwan situation but you really can't do that without explicitly getting rid of one China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947531771136119095) 2025-07-22 05:38:52 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @RobGandolfi Or a hunt by Chinese exporters to find new markets regardless what what happens with the US. Something to remember is that China intends to massive grow at X% per year for the next decade and there is no way that US and EU can absorb this growth. So China has been"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948307474500718909) 2025-07-24 09:01:14 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"One thing about NVidia being about to sell chips to China is that the Chinese govt wants foreign companies in China to kick the local companies into shape. This worked beautifully with Tesla and the Chinese govt wants NVidia in China so that Huawei gets a run for its money"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946341501203800512) 2025-07-18 22:49:09 UTC 1178 followers, 9532 engagements


"I am pretty shocked at how incompetent the EU is. So it looks like people figured that if they kissed Trump's rear end and said nasty things about China that Trump would give them a pass and it's not worked out that way"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946445514960232757) 2025-07-19 05:42:28 UTC 1178 followers, 1389 engagements


"So I've been having a heated argument with @robin_j_brooks over the effects of the Trump tariffs on Chinese exporters. He argues based on macroeconomics that the tariffs must be hurting chinese exporters and I think he has his curves wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653179606544562) 2025-07-22 13:41:18 UTC 1177 followers, 1004 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks People should look at my rebuttal. Basically I argue that he has his supply curve wrong and if you change the shape of the supply curve the conclusion changes. Also China's growth model *isn't* critically dependent on exports"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947658957033800071) 2025-07-22 14:04:15 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"Fascinating to me how many activists are finding out that they've been thrown under the bus. One reason I went pro-commie in 2019 is that it was obvious to me that the people that did Western policy were just liars and if you went with them you'd find a knife in your back"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948691497127477735) 2025-07-25 10:27:12 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks This is a weird prediction and but its the weird predictions that are interesting so we see in six months. If it turns out that the US/China trade deficit is as large as always with a 30-50 percent tariff we have an explanation as to why. If that doesn't happen they we"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947656929507217744) 2025-07-22 13:56:12 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @yishan @gonglei89 In the case of the US the google term is Turner's Frontier thesis. The place that I am original and weird is the thing that I add is Gene Roddenberry"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948574889369071928) 2025-07-25 02:43:51 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"Well back in the 2010's my view was that the Chinese govt was overly paranoid and that the US didn't have any evil intent against China. Turns out that I was the idiot. I've ended up on the side of Team China is that people in China aren't scheming about the end of the US"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795059128725637) 2025-07-20 04:51:26 UTC 1178 followers, 21.8K engagements


"When you have a theory about something it's worth spending some time digging and finding out if you are right. So I spent an hour digging the data and it looks like Nauru isn't *transshipping* Chinese goods but rather they just bought a fleet of tuna ships"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946497201511002554) 2025-07-19 09:07:51 UTC 1178 followers, 255.8K engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Oooohhh. China factories are too efficient and China has too much cash. Must be on the verge of economic collapse"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946108818989219897) 2025-07-18 07:24:34 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"how the US is hurting Chinese exporters and how China is so dependent on the American consumer once you do some research you find the *opposite* that China is the world manufacturing hub and is making tuna fish boats for Nauru LNG tankers for Qatar rubber tires for Paraguay"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946514532786176041) 2025-07-19 10:16:43 UTC 1174 followers, XXX engagements


"@JonathonPSine Yup and a lot of the factory workers are now delivery drivers. If you go into Shenzhen the streets are just full of delivery drivers on motor scooters. Meituan for example has XXX *million* delivery drivers and that is one company"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948556930588573767) 2025-07-25 01:32:29 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@real_stevele @robin_j_brooks I am of the opinion that a simple supply-demand model won't work"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947342191464223160) 2025-07-21 17:05:32 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @Brad_Setser It is both amusing and frightening the lengths people will go through to deny reality"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948554321916035362) 2025-07-25 01:22:07 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @fredsoda social democracy. Also Gramsci (and Chomsky) argues that ideology is a means for the upper classes to keep the lower classes down. But I think you have this inherent class contradiction in the US"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948245573535981724) 2025-07-24 04:55:16 UTC 1174 followers, XX engagements


"@observer1us @yishan @gonglei89 There is a beautiful description by Ray Huang in his book China: A Macrohistory. So you have dry air coming in from the Eurasian heartland that hits moist air coming in from the coast. So in an idea situation these two air masses dump just the right amount of rain"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948575809066955106) 2025-07-25 02:47:30 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @Brad_Setser A lot of this involves just *selling*. Going to trade shows getting the names of distributors and then calling them up to buy your stuff. Also exporters tend to be supply limited and not demand limited"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947477757266694510) 2025-07-22 02:04:14 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"Also I've been seeing less "China is taking over the SCS" lately. China really does not care about the PH fishing. They care about PH being a US proxy. If PH really wants to assert SCS rights they should take a trip to Moscow like Vietnam has. Also stop supporting Taiwan"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946347835945062671) 2025-07-18 23:14:20 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks The second question that I am interested in is "can trade by explained in terms of aggregate supply and demand curves and if so what is the shape of the curve." So right now I am toying with the idea that yes and the curves have Keynesian shapes"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448714152579290) 2025-07-22 00:08:49 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@ruelreyes012 @softwarnet @IsabellaAn67 China has been willing to negotiate and you can see this with China/Vietnam relations. If PH wants a protector then bring in Russia. The issue here is that PH is being used as a proxy by the US but China can negotiate with Trump and PH goes under the bus"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945981269420163362) 2025-07-17 22:57:43 UTC 1175 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk Arguable. I think most Americans would argue that the helicopter money went to the wrong people. Also one reason they did the "trade in" program and the Chinese govt like construction programs is that they help insure that the cash goes to the places they want"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948287163789201659) 2025-07-24 07:40:31 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"My views change when I get new information. Two days ago I didn't know about Nauru fishing boats so this is what I did"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946807843405082899) 2025-07-20 05:42:14 UTC 1178 followers, 7355 engagements


"@GlennLuk @gdp1985 This kind of points out one problem with the US. Either something is crisis level or its ignored. Also Pan Gongsheng is not in charge of this He Lifeng is. One big difference between China and the US is that the head of the PBC has nowhere near the power that the Fed does"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945683738769383612) 2025-07-17 03:15:27 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"One fascinating thing is that the Costco card works worldwide so I use the same card I signed up for in Taipei and apparently that will work in an US store. It is just different strategies but both seem to be working"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948227406533472708) 2025-07-24 03:43:04 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk The last ten years has been able junking the old economic model and creating a new science and technology driven model that will insure X percent GDP growth for the next decade"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948278617659847062) 2025-07-24 07:06:34 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk And the fact that you *CAN* go full trade war vastly increases both military and political leverage with the US"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948278136665481349) 2025-07-24 07:04:39 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks A lot of what is going on turns out to be pretty obvious once you are on the ground"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947476826751959536) 2025-07-22 02:00:32 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Before the Trump tariffs. Now there is graph X which I present as evidence that the supply curve is a hockey stick. So lets consider *US* exports and assume things to the other way. So what happens You have a XX% tariff and nothing happens. And nothing happens until you"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947655365581279456) 2025-07-22 13:49:59 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein That makes no sense. The US is already on top and if you blow up the system then there is a good chance that the US will end up shooting itself. Also if your strategy is to blow up the rest of the world I think most people would rather China be in charge"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946113241798906155) 2025-07-18 07:42:08 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks One problem is the shape of the supply curve. I would assume that you'd want a Keynesian aggregate supply curve in which case shifting the curve left or right won't make a difference"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947348107458498608) 2025-07-21 17:29:03 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@OwnNothingBFree One thing that evolution does is to provide diversity. So if we destroy the planet then people like me aren't going to inherit the earth but if we have nuclear war or environmental collapse then the Amish/Haredi/Salafists are the people that are going to win"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948324011143991668) 2025-07-24 10:06:57 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@twittwoods @GlennLuk Also China right now has bags of cash so putting money into aircraft development seems less wasteful than the alternatives"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948600030035935641) 2025-07-25 04:23:45 UTC 1179 followers, XX engagements


"@RnaudBertrand Also you have a lot of Chinese working in VC and IB firms in Silicon Valley and Wall Street and maybe learned something. The other thing about VC is that it really isn't that much about skill. It's about networking and then figuring out how to pitch people"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945746207072199126) 2025-07-17 07:23:40 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein @jakluge @Brad_Setser Also you can see the debate over whether China in fact is fudging current surplus data. I think that it isn't based on me being in HK crypto which means it becomes immediately obvious which direction the money is flowing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948041812045697522) 2025-07-23 15:25:35 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Whoa there. The reason US-G10 going down is that JPN rates are going up. Also the bond markets spiked with Trump in office and so anything that happens post-Trump already has Trump factored in"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948558792238702869) 2025-07-25 01:39:53 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks For Switzerland the main imports are Gold and nitrogen heterocyclic compounds and commodities not otherwise specified. Looks like drug precursors"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946779100737364099) 2025-07-20 03:48:01 UTC 1179 followers, 2608 engagements


"@MarketBlondes @Brad_Setser Changes in the economy. Because 2015 China would buy high tech stuff from Germany and sell low tech stuff back. The trouble is that after 2020 China went heavy into high tech"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948354733804253315) 2025-07-24 12:09:01 UTC 1175 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So all models are wrong but some models are useful. Part of the reason you have models is so you can make predictions. So if this model is right then it makes the prediction that *Trump tariffs will not affect Chinese imports* as long as it is in the flat area"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947656515411705893) 2025-07-22 13:54:33 UTC 1174 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Much of the spike is preshipment and in the case of EU the possibility that EU will sharply raise tariffs to get some deal with Trump. If you are an importer it is a no brainer to buy now because you don't know what the numbers are if you wait"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946431904536047765) 2025-07-19 04:48:23 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks And then you have to have a distributor that plays along. If the items get to Long Beach and customs looks at this and says "wait they don't make iPhones in Thailand" at that point the distributor is totally hosed. Not only is that shipment getting seized but"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947475938171863178) 2025-07-22 01:57:00 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser There is a lot of support in this in China. Opening up China to Tesla was one of the best decisions that the Chinese govt made. Once you get US companies in China then they train Chinese workers that get the experience to work for other companies or set up their own companies"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948587489926807847) 2025-07-25 03:33:55 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks If you can't sell at the lowest price you go out of business. Also Chinese exporters are supply constrained. So they will take as many orders as they can and they are usually overbooked. So when a US customer cancels then have another non-US customer they can sell to"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947654174080176622) 2025-07-22 13:45:15 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein You have a billion Africans lots of Arabs and maybe a billion Indians and that's not counting Latin America. Global south can't settle trade with their own currencies so maybe we just need to redo the world currency system"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946109389364175012) 2025-07-18 07:26:50 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"Because you've written a check for the factory this is counted as a current account import but it's not what Trump considers an import"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948395855859613949) 2025-07-24 14:52:26 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Chinese people have a problem in that we don't like to spend money but if it turns out that the nation demands people buy more stuff. People will manage. One thing that is *CRAZY* is how the US thinks that it's gift to the world is that it can consume stuff"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946107496130908611) 2025-07-18 07:19:18 UTC 1175 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk One thing that is pretty clear to me is that the decision to let Evergrande and Country Garden collapse was specifically so that capital would move out of real estate into tech"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1943553884347371782) 2025-07-11 06:12:10 UTC 1175 followers, 1624 engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand But it's mostly wrong. Most of the idea transfer happened with Chinese (like me) that worked in Wall Street and SV. Also the money came from Chinese investors the associates where Chinese and you had Chinese founders in SV and Wall Street"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945748365695979649) 2025-07-17 07:32:15 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"The Chinese lack of *a* and *the* is part of this funny clip"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946464098155405394) 2025-07-19 06:56:19 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser Think about going to aliexpress if you have another factory that sells the same item for XXXX cents less you go with them. What this means is that the market is perfectly elastic. At which point if you move the supply curve left and right nothing happens"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947483473511649375) 2025-07-22 02:26:57 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk Because tech is hard and schedules get delayed. However the efforts to compete with Starlink are going ahead and Beijing is going to prioritize this for national security reasons"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948599246267318579) 2025-07-25 04:20:38 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser This is false. China had intent to deliver on ag and energy. The plan on the Chinese side was to buy huge amounts of American agricultural resources and once China owned energy and agricultural companies to then export stuff to China and integrate with Chinese companies"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948588937699885183) 2025-07-25 03:39:40 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @yishan @gonglei89 Google for hydraulic empire. My view is that I like the theory of hydraulic empire but reject the notion of "oriental despotism." One other thing that I believe that comes from Jared Diamond is that American Russian and Chinese state structures are influenced by ecology"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948574241416176031) 2025-07-25 02:41:16 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks All models are wrong. Some models are useful. So I am thinking like a physicist. You have a simplified model of economic behavior that is making incorrect predictions. So trying to think through *why* is useful"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947447801534943439) 2025-07-22 00:05:12 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @RobGandolfi Looking at the global south for long term growth"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948307686665203713) 2025-07-24 09:02:04 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"So the thing that I noticed was that this was a huge amount for a small country. It's a good fraction of GDP so I figured that there was some interesting story here. So I picked up google and started looking at Nauru govt sites to see if there was anything"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946808203683205240) 2025-07-20 05:43:40 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"So it turns out that *none* of this has to do with transshipment or exporters and it looks like people are just buying more stuff from China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946509205764297204) 2025-07-19 09:55:33 UTC 1175 followers, 5689 engagements


"@GlennLuk And that opens the question of whether all of the tools that Western economists like are simple blunt tools that reflect a lack of institutional capacity and are intended to reinforce lack of institutional capacity"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948272167126192620) 2025-07-24 06:40:56 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"One reason Costco Shenzhen is getting visits is lots of shoppers from Hong Kong. In HK you can get the Japanese or British supermarket experience but there aren't American superstores. The other thing about Costco Shenzhen is that its part of a integrated real estate center"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948227955135525008) 2025-07-24 03:45:15 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The reason cell phone and electronics is interesting is I am wondering if the fact that they are can be moved easily from US to non-US changes accounts for why Trump caved in so quickly"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947349162443653409) 2025-07-21 17:33:14 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks I am trying to see if I can make some of the actual dynamics fit in the language of supply and demand. So what seems to be the case is that exporters really don't mind increased tariffs of XX or XX percent but once you hit XX or XX then the supply curve just drops to zero"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947349574466867702) 2025-07-21 17:34:53 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"The thing is that most of the kids in Hong Kong figured this out around 2022. Not a good feeling to realize that you've been scammed but you get used to it"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948692053103452648) 2025-07-25 10:29:25 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser The factories in SZ operate at almost no margin because you have a situation close to perfect competition. So if you have a demand shock factories go out of business. But then the workers go to other factories"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947484122886320473) 2025-07-22 02:29:32 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein @jakluge @Brad_Setser Motivated reasoning. If you want to believe something to be true then you can always explain away the data which then begs the question of why you were looking at the data in the first place"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948031311123546180) 2025-07-23 14:43:51 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"Qatar just bought a new fleet of LNG tankers from China Bulgaria trade is batteries and they just set up a new plant for BYD Hungary is commodites not otherwise specificed and batteries - they have a BYD plant Jordan is importing cars Jamaica is doing steel"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946507825460699306) 2025-07-19 09:50:04 UTC 1175 followers, 6148 engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk And Russian policy and a lot of Chinese fiscal policy can been seen through the lens of national security. China wants to keep deficits and debt low so if there is a trade/military crisis it has enough fiscal reserve"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948277473931878784) 2025-07-24 07:02:01 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"So I am looking at youtube videos for low low prices in tires in Paraguay and cell phones and then turns out everything is made in China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946508903568871869) 2025-07-19 09:54:21 UTC 1178 followers, 5409 engagements


"Chinese goods into third markets. So they can convince Brazil to block Chinese EV's but they can't convince Brazil to block Chinese EV's *but* allow German ones"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948649823684755721) 2025-07-25 07:41:36 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher Goes to Russia or Mars. All I care about is that the bank gets the wire from Dubai and this goes in my account. So I ship my iPhones to UAE or Thailand and if they resell to Russia none of my concern"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947155483854590217) 2025-07-21 04:43:38 UTC 1175 followers, XXX engagements


"So the trouble that the EU with China is that it can't do what the US did. What the US is doing is to put tariffs on Chinese goods with the goal of increasing domestic demand. The trouble with the EU is that they can block Chinese goods into the EU but they can't block"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948649546655170843) 2025-07-25 07:40:30 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks So among the issues 1) he is assuming a form for the supply/demand curve 2) no account for currency depreciation 3) fungibility issues"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448040467697736) 2025-07-22 00:06:09 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks If you look at the sectors that China is exporting in and the deals you will see that most of them were set up *before* Trump did his tariffs which means that you would see an export bump without Trump and this makes sense because with all of the talk about decoupling"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783456039784946) 2025-07-20 04:05:20 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser The difference between China and the US is that China had these big meetings over the last few years and so people have agreed on what the goals and strategy are. In the case of the US you have different groups that want different things and you have chaos"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948598388397933028) 2025-07-25 04:17:13 UTC 1179 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @GlennLuk Also one big reason that the Central Government does not want to increase fiscal spending is Donald Trump. If Trump starts another trade war or God forbid we get ourselves in a shooting war over Taiwan CG will need to push fiscal spending through the roof"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948276970573418591) 2025-07-24 07:00:01 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @fredsoda The idea is that *you* are a winner so you should support the ruling class against the losers. The trouble is that when everyone has been promised to be a winner and then you have to cash the cheques"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948245831376855294) 2025-07-24 04:56:17 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"Here is the counterargument. The numbers show that the state banks have dollars. There is no breakdown in who controls the dollars. The Chinese currency system is such so that anyone with dollars can move them into a state bank"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1948348112696918368) 2025-07-24 11:42:43 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser But that means that if a US customer backs out they have a customer from somewhere else that wants to buy their stuff. Also they because they are in a situation of perfect competition they have infinite price elasticity"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947482903749005330) 2025-07-22 02:24:41 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements