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[@joequant](/creator/twitter/joequant)
"I am going to be very rude here since there really isn't any excuse for this sloppy research. After spending a few hours on the internet and finding that Nauru was importing tuna ships I went through the databases and looked at what everyone was importing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946506980753039845) 2025-07-19 09:46:43 UTC 1153 followers, 75.5K engagements


"And the Paraguay - OMG Paraguay. They are importing Chinese tires like crazy and then when I looked at why I got into a rabbit hole. So Brazil puts a lot of tariffs on rubber tires so that means that Paraguay is a center for tires"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946508265824919918) 2025-07-19 09:51:49 UTC 1152 followers, 5674 engagements


"@FrensWuiMade @robin_j_brooks @yieldsearcher Yeah because some of us actually work with Chinese exporters. In SZ there is no need to do anything weird because you are either shipping electronics which have a low tariffs or you are shipping solar or EV's that where subject to pre-Trump tariffs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947156210639351958) 2025-07-21 04:46:31 UTC 1152 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein If you think that China is dependent on the US lets go toe-to-toe. XXX% cutoff in trade. Let's just stop trade and see who blinks first. Oh. We did that"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946107006475247940) 2025-07-18 07:17:21 UTC 1060 followers, XX engagements


"@not___a__bot @wmhuo168 The reason its *not* a ban is that holding bitcoin is legal which means they can't take it away from you. So if I had marijuana they could seize that but they can't seize bitcoin. The rules for bitcoin are the same as the rules for foreign currency which makes sense"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946332017496654044) 2025-07-18 22:11:28 UTC 1112 followers, XX engagements


"@nerdtechgasm @DoggyDog1208 @robin_j_brooks Also the new boats are from Mainland China and from the registries they seem to be replacing previous boats from Taiwan"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946776475740639664) 2025-07-20 03:37:35 UTC 1124 followers, XX engagements


"@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks One other thing is that the issue for people in China is not so much what the US tariff is but the Chinese countertariff. Trump can set US tariffs at anything as long as China can set countertariffs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946821215697715599) 2025-07-20 06:35:22 UTC 1145 followers, XX engagements


"@adam_tooze @KaiserKuo @gonglei89 The basic problem is that even with the real estate crash it turns out that if you mark the real estate as "places for living rather than investment" then the price is still much too high even in the T1 cities"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946334215181897878) 2025-07-18 22:20:12 UTC 1120 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher The big reason that people transship to Russia is to get around banking sanctions and not customs. So if I am a Chinese exporters and Putin wants to buy iPhones no bank in HK will touch the money. So I get an order from UAE. I don't know (or care) if the order"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947155080479916507) 2025-07-21 04:42:02 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@TheBizCyclist @robin_j_brooks Yup. What is happening is when an exporter has a US customer cancel he goes through the list of people he met at trade shows and emails them to see if they are interested in buying. Chinese manufacturers are just in time and do not warehouse goods. Distributors warehouse"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946429800773816813) 2025-07-19 04:40:02 UTC 1142 followers, XX engagements


"Argument through repetition. My counterarguments are 1) I am close to Chinese exporters in Shenzhen and that's not happening and 2) if you go down what actually gets exported its obvious that this is not true"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946792180649218530) 2025-07-20 04:40:00 UTC 1153 followers, 3636 engagements


"@FrensWuiMade @robin_j_brooks @yieldsearcher The people it has hit hard were deminimis traders but that was always more of a currency exchange issue and they've found other ways of moving cash"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947156547714650393) 2025-07-21 04:47:52 UTC 1153 followers, XX engagements


"@IAmArcIvanov @Brad_Setser Maybe but he DOES understand politics. Part of the reason Trump is incoherent is that the US public wants incompatible things"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946436205803147724) 2025-07-19 05:05:29 UTC 1142 followers, XX engagements


"@petereharrell For 4) anyone that retaliates is doing to going to get trade nuked. I don't see anyone other than the EU that would be able to withstand the trade war that US put against China and even in the case of China it ended up with very high tariffs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946790861309927902) 2025-07-20 04:34:45 UTC 1144 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser Yup but then expect that Trump will do what he did with China and retaliate with XXX percent tariffs on all European goods. The problem here is that if we go full trade war I don't see how the EU can win"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946447140768858276) 2025-07-19 05:48:56 UTC 1142 followers, XX engagements


"@danielbarkeley Absolutely just not to the US and it's not "transshipment" since they seem to want to attract Brazilians to travel to Paraguay. One reason I enjoy a good argument is that I never would have stumbled onto the Paraguayan tire market if it wasn't for me doing some research"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947162431072915701) 2025-07-21 05:11:14 UTC 1152 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein China has massive domestic markets and can withstand a shutdown in US exports. China's vulnerable has to do with food and fuel but that is where Russia comes in"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946103989243916644) 2025-07-18 07:05:22 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks But the basic idea that Chinese exporters are diverting US shipments to other countries is wrong because 1) I am in HK and I can see that this isn't happening and 2) you can look what China is exporting and the increases are in non-US products"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946782557372285210) 2025-07-20 04:01:45 UTC 1133 followers, XXX engagements


"The thing to note is that the fact that people are posting on social media means that its not this totalitarian dystopia where people get shot for complaining. The other thing about social media is that it changes press policy"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946473563722227781) 2025-07-19 07:33:55 UTC 1146 followers, XXX engagements


"It's official Trump has just thrown the China haters under the bus. If you are a protectionist you want to the US to screw everyone not-US. If you are a China hater you want the US to be nice to everyone not-China so they will all go after China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1942301336219050119) 2025-07-07 19:14:59 UTC 1148 followers, XXX engagements


"Pretty good talk but its interesting that China isn't in a big hurry to create mega-clusters. The problem is that if you pitch a mega data center to the Politburo their reaction is "oh you just want money for your pet project.""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795680519094731) 2025-07-20 04:53:54 UTC 1153 followers, XXX engagements


"@IAmArcIvanov @Brad_Setser Is China going to invade Los Angeles If China starts going after Hawaii or California nuke Shanghai and we all die. China is growing at X% per year it's going to be able to increase its military *no matter what the US does*. Something is going to break"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946456026125086924) 2025-07-19 06:24:14 UTC 1143 followers, XX engagements


"@hosseeb The danger of being identified with one camp is shown by what happened with healthcare reform and green energy"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946458149139194198) 2025-07-19 06:32:40 UTC 1143 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Okay I've done more digging and this is all wrong. Let me write an article on this"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946506373245935620) 2025-07-19 09:44:18 UTC 1147 followers, 1544 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Why are you repeating this nonsense when someone that actually works with Chinese exporters (i.e. me) is telling you that this isn't happening I've gone through the export process and explained why you've got it wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946428780236726587) 2025-07-19 04:35:58 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@TheBizCyclist @robin_j_brooks Also non electronic goods are not perishable. The reason Trump had to immediately reduce tariffs on electronics is that they are perishable and you have to air freight them immediately. For ship stuff it takes a month to ship so the name of the game is to schedule it"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946430741170323812) 2025-07-19 04:43:46 UTC 1144 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher Because EU to Russia is a completely different situation. Transshipment to the US doesn't work because US customs will notice and stop the shipment. If you move product through UAE that ends up in Russia Russian customs won't care"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947154540194845130) 2025-07-21 04:39:53 UTC 1153 followers, 2021 engagements


"Also if Brooks says "wait I've talked to Chinese exporters and they see something different" than I would be *REALLY* interested. Or maybe there is some problem with my analysis of trade. But its kind of frustrating because he is ignoring my arguments"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946793302877225399) 2025-07-20 04:44:27 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"Adding movie clip to point out a problem with translations of Chinese. Chinese does not have definite articles *a* and *the*. In English there is a big difference between saying that you want to be *a* great power or *the* great power"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946463192437383426) 2025-07-19 06:52:43 UTC 1152 followers, 1076 engagements


"I try to be polite but part of the reason I am being rude is to get a reaction @robin_j_brooks has this theory about Chinese exporters that is obviously wrong and so I am screaming at him so that he gets annoyed enough to argue that I am full of crap"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946782147819512099) 2025-07-20 04:00:08 UTC 1152 followers, 1606 engagements


"@gonglei89 It turns out that Jensen Huang is promoting Chinese national unification. I don't think that this is intentional since he just wants to make money but think of the political implications of having NVidia teams in Shanghai and Taipei working with each other on CUDA and H20"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946349588002267590) 2025-07-18 23:21:17 UTC 1124 followers, XXX engagements


"@leogray01 @Glenn_Diesen Yeah. Lots of offshore money. The issue with Caymans/BVI is that they now enforce Russian sanctions. The new system is that Russians will get up HK companies but open up bank accounts in Dubai. The US still controls the HK banking system by controlling dollar access but"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947168334606434658) 2025-07-21 05:34:42 UTC 1153 followers, XXX engagements


"@DjehoutimessouA @nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks Actually been done"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946776033887449576) 2025-07-20 03:35:50 UTC 1125 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein And you vastly overestimate how important exports are. All of this works out to 2-3 percent GDP which they can make up for with fiscal stimulus. Trump and China played chicken. China is prepared to withstand a full trade embargo and Trump blinked"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946103665842102313) 2025-07-18 07:04:05 UTC 1131 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein And Trump has fired anyone that has any clue. These measures absolutely will not work. The more friction you put with anything that involves trade with the US the more countries will decide to trade more with China which is what is happening"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946102334154817790) 2025-07-18 06:58:47 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements


"@thecyrusjanssen It turns out that maglev tech is still in pilot stages because it turns out that the cost of construction isn't worth the extra speed right now. There is a nice test maglev in Shanghai between the airport and the city but they decided that it would better to go HSR for now"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945982632204153024) 2025-07-17 23:03:08 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Yes the US dollar system forces China to do stuff so people are working on fixing that"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946109564543492209) 2025-07-18 07:27:31 UTC 1058 followers, XX engagements


"So I just posted me digging down and coming up with research showing that this is *totally wrong*. In fact all of these increases in trade have nothing to do directly with Trump tariffs and they were all things that were in the pipe. But rather than showing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946513843938906490) 2025-07-19 10:13:59 UTC 1152 followers, 5276 engagements


"@TMarino302 @IsabellaAn67 Also in international law once you acknowledge the authority of the panel you are bound by its decisions so CN's position was the panel was illegal"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946499418485924235) 2025-07-19 09:16:40 UTC 1147 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Found it Nauru just bought a fleet of Mainland Chinese tuna fishing ships. They had a fleet of Taiwanese built ships but after they changed diplomatic relations I think they may have gotten a gift"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946494782630674604) 2025-07-19 08:58:14 UTC 1152 followers, 1545 engagements


"Then after googling various combinations of Nauru China imports Nauru China trade I came on this site. And then I saw *WHOA* massive import of fishing ships. That's XX million USD and the next thing is 174k US in plastic housewares"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946808725274316875) 2025-07-20 05:45:44 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@dale_wen @AngelicaOung The problem is that right now Taiwan is demilitarized and the "German model" would involve the US putting bases in Taiwan which it agreed to withdraw in the 1970s. The model which I prefer is the EU-2010 model"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947161642245980289) 2025-07-21 05:08:06 UTC 1152 followers, XX engagements


"And I learned about the Paraguayian tire industry. At this point my investment bank background kicks in. So why is Paraguay a center for cheap tires"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946809653922607307) 2025-07-20 05:49:26 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@petereharrell Trump has done a good job on preventing retaliation. Basically Trump has made it clear that if you retaliate he is willing to nuke you economically. China is the only country that both can and is willing to retaliate"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946790443171422235) 2025-07-20 04:33:05 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks You can take a look at is how the different countries respond to cheap Chinese goods. If you have a country that is interested in developing manufacturing (Russia) but for Jordan Jamaica or Paraguay a flood of cheap Chinese goods might not be bad"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946027816480559555) 2025-07-18 02:02:41 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements


"When they opened the first diagonal crosswalk in Shatin being bored I just visited it and went wild crossing diagonally"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946151306525376717) 2025-07-18 10:13:23 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements


"So I am looking at stacks of Chinese made tires and a fast talking salesman and it makes me feel better than talking about weapons and war"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946510972518305932) 2025-07-19 10:02:34 UTC 1150 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @justwannasayth2 I found it. Tuna ships. Also this gets me down the rabbit whole of tuna fishing in the Pacific. This also shows the dangers of jumping to conclusions since there is nothing here that suggests anything to do with the trade war"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946495385125707869) 2025-07-19 09:00:38 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"So one thing that is cool about HK is that it is a city-state so you are in the middle of global geopolitics but then sometimes little things make big news. For example that they are going to have more diagonal crosswalks"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946150622497317299) 2025-07-18 10:10:40 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand This isn't where the tech transfer happened. What happened was that you had people that worked for VC firms that moved back to China and then started their own VC firms. The other thing is that Chinese VC rather differently than Western VC"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945747032687452486) 2025-07-17 07:26:57 UTC 1039 followers, XX engagements


"Right now you have the World of Snacks. Early next month you have Cat Expo 2025"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946251949550219527) 2025-07-18 16:53:19 UTC 1107 followers, XXX engagements


"@BarrettYouTube If you are in mainland China and you really want to do crypto it's doable. You come to Hong Kong open an account in HK find a Singapore exchange run a VPN. If you are doing private trading its legal. But they make it intentionally difficult so that not everyone does it"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946442333190545708) 2025-07-19 05:29:50 UTC 1142 followers, XX engagements


"Now if you translate the rest of the text you quickly figure out that China wants to be *a* global leader. But then if you want to twist the quote then you just leave out that part"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946463966596878423) 2025-07-19 06:55:47 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Assuming no Trump surprises. I expect that the numbers will drop sharply in Q3 once as people already moved stuff over. But the idea that Chinese exporters are hurting is just wrong. The issue is that whatever Trump does there is a countermove"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946432594230358145) 2025-07-19 04:51:08 UTC 1141 followers, XX engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand When you have a VC fund structure it is often an LGFV and then you have a lot of implicit liabilities and lines of control"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945750179648614911) 2025-07-17 07:39:27 UTC 1130 followers, XX engagements


"I've ended up on Team China rather than Team USA. China is talking about trade and making people rich. So researched what Paraguay is buying from China and ended up with a youtube video of a Paraguayan tire salesman getting business from Brazil"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946510732323090745) 2025-07-19 10:01:37 UTC 1152 followers, 1767 engagements


"I was rude toward someone that obvious doesn't understand trade. But speaking of trade if you ever visit Hong Kong go into the website of the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center because there is invariably a trade show going on there"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946250882074775841) 2025-07-18 16:49:04 UTC 1107 followers, XXX engagements


"@hendersongus @robin_j_brooks Its not and brooks is talking crap. What is *obvious* once you to through the trade data is that China has been diversifying its exports in expectation of the Trump tariffs. The big export of China to Switzerland and vice versa is gold"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946780457523446195) 2025-07-20 03:53:25 UTC 1127 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Also all of the new growing industries in Shenzhen are XXX% tariffed anyway. EV and solar and none of that goes to the US"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946104125852471415) 2025-07-18 07:05:55 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk The entire *point* of SOE reform in the 1990's was to make the incentive structure of SOE's similar to private firms. In particular SOE's were set up so that they were incentivized to run at a profit and the role of the state was that of a shareholder"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946487279381598570) 2025-07-19 08:28:26 UTC 1146 followers, XX engagements


"One thing about NVidia being about to sell chips to China is that the Chinese govt wants foreign companies in China to kick the local companies into shape. This worked beautifully with Tesla and the Chinese govt wants NVidia in China so that Huawei gets a run for its money"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946341501203800512) 2025-07-18 22:49:09 UTC 1152 followers, 8906 engagements


"I am pretty shocked at how incompetent the EU is. So it looks like people figured that if they kissed Trump's rear end and said nasty things about China that Trump would give them a pass and it's not worked out that way"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946445514960232757) 2025-07-19 05:42:28 UTC 1146 followers, 1353 engagements


"@IsabellaAn67 China has stated its arguments under int law. You may disagree with them but you can't argue that they don't exist. The problem is that PH is getting the support from US that doesn't give a damn about int law. Just look at Gaza. Also US has blown up UNCLOS"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946450725682512297) 2025-07-19 06:03:10 UTC 1150 followers, XXX engagements


"The thing is that China spent *YEARS* preparing for a trade war with Trump. So when it came time China was ready and the US backed down. The thing is that I don't think that the EU is ready if Trump decides to go full embargo and cut off trade with Europe"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946446082399195473) 2025-07-19 05:44:43 UTC 1150 followers, XXX engagements


"Well back in the 2010's my view was that the Chinese govt was overly paranoid and that the US didn't have any evil intent against China. Turns out that I was the idiot. I've ended up on the side of Team China is that people in China aren't scheming about the end of the US"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795059128725637) 2025-07-20 04:51:26 UTC 1153 followers, 9245 engagements


"When you have a theory about something it's worth spending some time digging and finding out if you are right. So I spent an hour digging the data and it looks like Nauru isn't *transshipping* Chinese goods but rather they just bought a fleet of tuna ships"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946497201511002554) 2025-07-19 09:07:51 UTC 1153 followers, 250.5K engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Oooohhh. China factories are too efficient and China has too much cash. Must be on the verge of economic collapse"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946108818989219897) 2025-07-18 07:24:34 UTC 1039 followers, XX engagements


"how the US is hurting Chinese exporters and how China is so dependent on the American consumer once you do some research you find the *opposite* that China is the world manufacturing hub and is making tuna fish boats for Nauru LNG tankers for Qatar rubber tires for Paraguay"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946514532786176041) 2025-07-19 10:16:43 UTC 1127 followers, XXX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @gentle_class7 Also one thing that China did before the trade war was to line up other trade partners. The EU made the decision (which was stupid IMHO) to go anti-China in the hopes of getting better concessions from Trump which was never going to work"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946448342021787922) 2025-07-19 05:53:42 UTC 1142 followers, XX engagements


"@gonglei89 Just think of what you end up with if you do Mainland manufacturing + HK finance + Taiwan tech My thesis is that the neocons figured this out and are trying to block it. The issue is that the neocons are against any sort of *peaceful unification*"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946350081730638006) 2025-07-18 23:23:15 UTC 1125 followers, XXX engagements


"And the so I learned something. This then gets you into the industry of fisheries but that was depressing. So I started going through the other countries"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946809334534726053) 2025-07-20 05:48:09 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"Also I've been seeing less "China is taking over the SCS" lately. China really does not care about the PH fishing. They care about PH being a US proxy. If PH really wants to assert SCS rights they should take a trip to Moscow like Vietnam has. Also stop supporting Taiwan"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946347835945062671) 2025-07-18 23:14:20 UTC 1114 followers, XXX engagements


"@StefanFSchubert @robin_j_brooks @SanderTordoir They bought a fleet of tuna fishing ships from China. Here is one of them"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946496018364973084) 2025-07-19 09:03:09 UTC 1148 followers, XXX engagements


"@ruelreyes012 @softwarnet @IsabellaAn67 China has been willing to negotiate and you can see this with China/Vietnam relations. If PH wants a protector then bring in Russia. The issue here is that PH is being used as a proxy by the US but China can negotiate with Trump and PH goes under the bus"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945981269420163362) 2025-07-17 22:57:43 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements


"My views change when I get new information. Two days ago I didn't know about Nauru fishing boats so this is what I did"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946807843405082899) 2025-07-20 05:42:14 UTC 1153 followers, 7060 engagements


"@adam_tooze @KaiserKuo @gonglei89 So what's happened is that local govts last year are putting in money to stabilize the market. The trouble is that you have a frozen market and so when you put in money that helps for a while but then the market unfreezes and prices go down more"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946333931923734573) 2025-07-18 22:19:05 UTC 1120 followers, XX engagements


"@teortaxesTex Also since Taiwan has kicked out Huawei I think that having engineers in Beijing Shanghai and Taipei work with each other is one reason that Beijing wants NVidia in the Mainland. Promotes national unification"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946351277019127927) 2025-07-18 23:28:00 UTC 1143 followers, XXX engagements


"@not___a__bot @wmhuo168 You are allowed to trade bitcoin but you are not allowed to have a business trading bitcoin. Essentially they are putting bitcoin under the same rules as foreign exchange. You can't use anything other than RMB as payment"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946331657923186911) 2025-07-18 22:10:02 UTC 1112 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk Once you've put in the state as a profit-seeking shareholder then the identity of shareholder whether state or private does not matter. The big thing about the SOE reform is that it prevented the widespread looting and govt capture problems in other places"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946487731640828315) 2025-07-19 08:30:13 UTC 1147 followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein That makes no sense. The US is already on top and if you blow up the system then there is a good chance that the US will end up shooting itself. Also if your strategy is to blow up the rest of the world I think most people would rather China be in charge"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946113241798906155) 2025-07-18 07:42:08 UTC 1066 followers, XX engagements


"@nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks It looks like Nauru is trying to regulate tuna catches (which makes sense because they got burned by phospate)"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946775591778419075) 2025-07-20 03:34:05 UTC 1072 followers, XX engagements


"@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks Its not because if you look at the things that are being exported. It's stuff that is consumed in country X"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946813916090372339) 2025-07-20 06:06:22 UTC 1144 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks For Switzerland the main imports are Gold and nitrogen heterocyclic compounds and commodities not otherwise specified. Looks like drug precursors"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946779100737364099) 2025-07-20 03:48:01 UTC 1152 followers, 2489 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Much of the spike is preshipment and in the case of EU the possibility that EU will sharply raise tariffs to get some deal with Trump. If you are an importer it is a no brainer to buy now because you don't know what the numbers are if you wait"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946431904536047765) 2025-07-19 04:48:23 UTC 1128 followers, XXX engagements


"@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks Yes. That sums it up. Also I live in HK next to the factories and there are reasons that the scenario he posts won't work"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946811837368123460) 2025-07-20 05:58:06 UTC 1144 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein You have a billion Africans lots of Arabs and maybe a billion Indians and that's not counting Latin America. Global south can't settle trade with their own currencies so maybe we just need to redo the world currency system"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946109389364175012) 2025-07-18 07:26:50 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein If the US stops running trade deficits then you don't have a source of dollars to work as the reserve currency. The fact that Trump is going after China over trade deficits just blows up the entire system. If the US insists on balanced trade then China has to adjust"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946111106482831472) 2025-07-18 07:33:39 UTC 1079 followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Chinese people have a problem in that we don't like to spend money but if it turns out that the nation demands people buy more stuff. People will manage. One thing that is *CRAZY* is how the US thinks that it's gift to the world is that it can consume stuff"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946107496130908611) 2025-07-18 07:19:18 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk One thing that is pretty clear to me is that the decision to let Evergrande and Country Garden collapse was specifically so that capital would move out of real estate into tech"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1943553884347371782) 2025-07-11 06:12:10 UTC 1117 followers, 1617 engagements


"The Chinese lack of *a* and *the* is part of this funny clip"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946464098155405394) 2025-07-19 06:56:19 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@denisewu This is false. You can look at the nationality law for details. But whether you are a Chinese national depends on whether or not your parents were permanent residents or citizens at the time of birth"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947158383683137934) 2025-07-21 04:55:09 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Also you get into "post hoc prompter hoc" issues. So non-US Chinese exports increased massively after the Trump tariffs but. That doesn't mean that you would not have had an export bump without Trump"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783112144503166) 2025-07-20 04:03:58 UTC 1138 followers, XXX engagements


"So it turns out that *none* of this has to do with transshipment or exporters and it looks like people are just buying more stuff from China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946509205764297204) 2025-07-19 09:55:33 UTC 1152 followers, 5630 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Now my alternative thesis is that what happened is that Chinese govt and exporters understood that US trade was limited and so diversified their exports to non-US sources"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946782825845538944) 2025-07-20 04:02:49 UTC 1138 followers, XXX engagements


"@StrategyEmerg @dawn2042 In the case of Qatar the spike in trade numbers is due to LNG ships. It shows that the scenario that Brooks posted of Chinese exporters desperate because of US consumers is wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946774822463357027) 2025-07-20 03:31:01 UTC 1133 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Jezzus. Have you looked at the responses where I debunked your nonsense Okay let me pull up the trade figures from Albania and Switzerland"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946777397493461215) 2025-07-20 03:41:15 UTC 1150 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks I am trying to be polite but you aren't making it easy. Albania imports cars and iron bars from China. The cars are under Trump tariffs as far as iron bars. Albania has a massive scrap plant in Kurum"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946778201604477403) 2025-07-20 03:44:27 UTC 1128 followers, XXX engagements


"So the Chinese political system is trying to optimize for maximum social benefit. If it turns out that creating mega-clusters does create AGI then China can do that very quickly but this hasn't been proven and right now China is focusing more on applications of AI"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795984404795487) 2025-07-20 04:55:07 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@BarrettYouTube Also the Chinese govt is much more positive toward crypto than you would think. Once you understand what they want then you can figure out how to work with them"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946441821892247908) 2025-07-19 05:27:48 UTC 1146 followers, XX engagements


"This is kind of unreal how some people just can't look at things like facts. Once you dig through what countries are importing it is *obvious* that what happened that the Trump tariffs are not having an impact on exporters. In fact the story that seems to be the case"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946779485526974664) 2025-07-20 03:49:33 UTC 1152 followers, 3815 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks I can go through everything Trump could possibly do and tell you what the exporters and Chinese govt will do in response because unlike Americans Chinese can think two chess moves ahead"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946433042194530782) 2025-07-19 04:52:54 UTC 1140 followers, XX engagements


"Also the EU is just not set up for a trade war. In the case of China when Trump does X they have a meeting pull out the plans and immediately do Y. With the EU everything requires a committee meeting which means that you get into divide and conquer"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946446540710801429) 2025-07-19 05:46:33 UTC 1150 followers, XXX engagements


"@RambutanRed @GlennLuk I've seen this graph but my question is how much of the bank credit is going to new economy industrials. My understanding is that banks do not like lending to new economy companies and prefer to lend to SOEs (which is a problem)"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946465917300605357) 2025-07-19 07:03:32 UTC 1145 followers, XX engagements


"One thing that people get very wrong about Xi is that when he gives a "big speech" he is summarizing the discussion that has been going on for the previous several months. It *seems* like Xi is barking orders when in fact he is summarizing the consensus"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946092641080484205) 2025-07-18 06:20:16 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements


"I am pretty willing to debate this. "Personal experience" convinces me but it might not convince you. So I know Chinese exporters and I know what is going on in SZ. So that convinces me. Now you aren't me so you have to figure out how much to trust me or not"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946792563245261215) 2025-07-20 04:41:31 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Nope. In the case of Nauru it is a "gift" from Beijing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946003389558710511) 2025-07-18 00:25:37 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements


"One thing to notice is that all of those "China is a mess" channels are often based on videos that are posted to Chinese social media. So the typical situation is that 1) something bad happens 2) people complain on social media 3) the bad thing gets fixed"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946473268497752334) 2025-07-19 07:32:45 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks I haven't looked at the numbers but my guess is that Palau doesn't have these sorts of numbers"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946003801829490954) 2025-07-18 00:27:16 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks It would make sense for China to increase trade with non-US areas even without Trump. Also once you dig into the numbers you see how the US is losing ground to China when it comes to manufacturing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783757954117753) 2025-07-20 04:06:32 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@petereharrell I strongly disagree is that if you just use the CPI index and run the tariffs through them the impact on total CPI is a rounding error. One way of illustrating this is to assume tariffs increase doubles the cost of an iPhones. How many iPhones a month do you buy anyway"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946791452916535307) 2025-07-20 04:37:06 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"Qatar just bought a new fleet of LNG tankers from China Bulgaria trade is batteries and they just set up a new plant for BYD Hungary is commodites not otherwise specificed and batteries - they have a BYD plant Jordan is importing cars Jamaica is doing steel"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946507825460699306) 2025-07-19 09:50:04 UTC 1152 followers, 6088 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Okay I just did some digging and it appears that in May 2025 someone on Nauru bought fishing ships from China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946492772514681238) 2025-07-19 08:50:15 UTC 1148 followers, XXX engagements


"So I am looking at youtube videos for low low prices in tires in Paraguay and cell phones and then turns out everything is made in China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946508903568871869) 2025-07-19 09:54:21 UTC 1152 followers, 5349 engagements


"@gonglei89 So part of the AI tech embargo is aimed at preventing peaceful Chinese unification. One of the questions I have for @RushDoshi (who is blocking my comments) is when they wrote NSS-2022 and the AI chip limits was "wrecking Mainland/Taiwan cooperation" a goal"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946350848373911997) 2025-07-18 23:26:18 UTC 1124 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher Goes to Russia or Mars. All I care about is that the bank gets the wire from Dubai and this goes in my account. So I ship my iPhones to UAE or Thailand and if they resell to Russia none of my concern"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947155483854590217) 2025-07-21 04:43:38 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@Glenn_Diesen Also you note that China started dropping during Trump XXX and my thesis is that the inflation during COVID was due to China and Russia refusing to fund the US. Because the US can't get cash from China and Russia it is desperately trying to squeeze money from its "allies""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947166994014572884) 2025-07-21 05:29:22 UTC 1153 followers, XXX engagements


"@thecyrusjanssen What is funny/sad/scary is that you just remove the name China and replace the name Russia Iran Iraq Afghanistan and you end up with the same report"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946794516209656196) 2025-07-20 04:49:17 UTC 1152 followers, 1711 engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein I think you are assume that Trump and the US elite is more rational than they are. The problem with weaponizing the dollar is that it just convinces people to move off of the dollar. Not going to happen tomorrow but its going to happen a lot more quickly than you would think"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946117600221741388) 2025-07-18 07:59:27 UTC 1039 followers, XX engagements


"So first of all the diagrams are misleading and you see this spike right after 2025 but then the whole diagram is spiky so after going through the databases I found"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946507273284788679) 2025-07-19 09:47:52 UTC 1152 followers, 5642 engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein China is going super into high tech right now. We aren't peasants growing rice. Global trust You are kidding me. Look I try to be polite but people are so *delusional* that it's hard for me to stomach it. You believe what you want and I'll just wait for reality to hit"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946106496619798831) 2025-07-18 07:15:20 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks First of all I don't trust AI to do research. AI gets things wrong. For example I've posted the fishing boat registry. Yes my story does change every day. It's called learning new stuff and changing my views to fit the facts and new information"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946807114623828092) 2025-07-20 05:39:20 UTC 1153 followers, 4252 engagements


"So basically Taiwan can have total access to Mainland Chinese markets and keep Taiwan totally closed to Mainland Chinese goods"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1942302175511863748) 2025-07-07 19:18:19 UTC 1148 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks If you look at the sectors that China is exporting in and the deals you will see that most of them were set up *before* Trump did his tariffs which means that you would see an export bump without Trump and this makes sense because with all of the talk about decoupling"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783456039784946) 2025-07-20 04:05:20 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"HAHAHAHAHA. Funny to have someone argue that you don't exist. He is arguing that China can't surpass the US because somehow the US has this monopoly on creativity and dynamism. (i.e. people like me don't exist in China)"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946798678578249750) 2025-07-20 05:05:49 UTC 1153 followers, 1637 engagements


"@nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks Yeah and I found that out independently looking at the trade data. Once you look at Nauru's trade then you find that the imports were fishing vessels and then I did some googling to find the registration of the vessels. Also got myself into the politics of fisheries"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946775357849501981) 2025-07-20 03:33:09 UTC 1143 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein The US borrow money from China then buys stuff and thinks that they are doing China a favor. But if your only function is to consume stuff you are easy to replace. Instead of lending money to Americans to buy Chinese stuff China can replace Americans with Arabs and Africans"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946107886222070270) 2025-07-18 07:20:51 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk Well the US had an early tech lead in everything and also blew it. My theory on all this is that because Japan choose to keep its financial system the way it was in the 1990's that it was never able to mobilize new capital for developmental research"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1943553496453911008) 2025-07-11 06:10:37 UTC 1118 followers, XXX engagements


"@SomethingOnSnow And the fact that China might respond to all of the talk of the US decoupling by developing other markets has never occurred to people"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946794108581986501) 2025-07-20 04:47:39 UTC 1125 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Also you forget one big thing. The US is *unwilling* to run trade deficits with China. So the system is over. Trump wants the US to stop running trade deficits at which point the *whole freaking system falls apart*. People in China are working on the new system"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946110277067608401) 2025-07-18 07:30:21 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements