[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

[@joequant](/creator/twitter/joequant)
"@robin_j_brooks Finally I question whether supply-demand curves are a good model for any of this. It is clear that a there was an increase in trade in anticipation of the Trump tariffs. There are also a bunch of other factors post-COVID recovery"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947339764878770472) 2025-07-21 16:55:54 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@qiaohuanxin @Maytechummia No. Under US/China consular agreement if they gave him a visa with a US passport that is not grounds for keeping him in China. It is also possible that the person isn't involved in espionage activities but China has to make sure"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947320194503753885) 2025-07-21 15:38:08 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser And there are some good reasons to assume that the supply curve is a hockey stick. So if you look at how the China/US trade argument goes no one seems to care if the tariff is 10-30 percent. However once you raise it past XX percent trade suddenly collapses"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947485869885296807) 2025-07-22 02:36:28 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"I am going to be very rude here since there really isn't any excuse for this sloppy research. After spending a few hours on the internet and finding that Nauru was importing tuna ships I went through the databases and looked at what everyone was importing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946506980753039845) 2025-07-19 09:46:43 UTC 1177 followers, 76.5K engagements


"And the Paraguay - OMG Paraguay. They are importing Chinese tires like crazy and then when I looked at why I got into a rabbit hole. So Brazil puts a lot of tariffs on rubber tires so that means that Paraguay is a center for tires"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946508265824919918) 2025-07-19 09:51:49 UTC 1177 followers, 5710 engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks The reason I am interested is that I am working on the question "is the fungibility of cell phones related to why Trump can't put in big tariffs on phones""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448285943501002) 2025-07-22 00:07:07 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"At least I know *why* @robin_j_brooks thinks that things are the way they are. The problem with this model is that most exports are substituteable. The only export item that might be substitutable are cell phones and I am trying to think about what the supply/demand curve is"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947346960777699627) 2025-07-21 17:24:30 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@FrensWuiMade @robin_j_brooks @yieldsearcher Yeah because some of us actually work with Chinese exporters. In SZ there is no need to do anything weird because you are either shipping electronics which have a low tariffs or you are shipping solar or EV's that where subject to pre-Trump tariffs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947156210639351958) 2025-07-21 04:46:31 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Look back and see what we did wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947657005675716666) 2025-07-22 13:56:30 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@nerdtechgasm @DoggyDog1208 @robin_j_brooks Also the new boats are from Mainland China and from the registries they seem to be replacing previous boats from Taiwan"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946776475740639664) 2025-07-20 03:37:35 UTC 1170 followers, XX engagements


"@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks One other thing is that the issue for people in China is not so much what the US tariff is but the Chinese countertariff. Trump can set US tariffs at anything as long as China can set countertariffs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946821215697715599) 2025-07-20 06:35:22 UTC 1172 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher The big reason that people transship to Russia is to get around banking sanctions and not customs. So if I am a Chinese exporters and Putin wants to buy iPhones no bank in HK will touch the money. So I get an order from UAE. I don't know (or care) if the order"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947155080479916507) 2025-07-21 04:42:02 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks Use an aggregate supply/demand model for trade restrictions"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947449886246600931) 2025-07-22 00:13:29 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"Argument through repetition. My counterarguments are 1) I am close to Chinese exporters in Shenzhen and that's not happening and 2) if you go down what actually gets exported its obvious that this is not true"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946792180649218530) 2025-07-20 04:40:00 UTC 1171 followers, 3678 engagements


"@FrensWuiMade @robin_j_brooks @yieldsearcher The people it has hit hard were deminimis traders but that was always more of a currency exchange issue and they've found other ways of moving cash"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947156547714650393) 2025-07-21 04:47:52 UTC 1172 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks People keep underestimating the difficulty of pure transshipment. So suppose I do want to transship I have 10000 fans on a container to Long Bench. Just hiring people to change "made in China" to "made in Thailand" is non-trivial since you have to set that up"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947475515335700597) 2025-07-22 01:55:19 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser What you find with this factories is that they are supply limited. So they sell everything they produce and if it turns out that someone else comes along they say "sorry""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947482360011948200) 2025-07-22 02:22:31 UTC 1171 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks There are two things that I am trying to think through. First of all there was a burst of exports *before* the Trump tariffs. If you try to fit this in that means that the demand curve was shifting before the tariffs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947348518827434246) 2025-07-21 17:30:41 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @real_stevele No they don't if you have a Keynesian-shaped aggregate supply curve. Even assuming that you can model this with supply and demand what information do you have on the price elasticity if either the supply or the demand curve is horizontal then you don't have any price shift"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947341925595680848) 2025-07-21 17:04:29 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser The problem is that Europe screaming at China to change its economic model without offering any reason why it is in China's benefit to do so is just not going to work"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947533197040095471) 2025-07-22 05:44:32 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@petereharrell For 4) anyone that retaliates is doing to going to get trade nuked. I don't see anyone other than the EU that would be able to withstand the trade war that US put against China and even in the case of China it ended up with very high tariffs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946790861309927902) 2025-07-20 04:34:45 UTC 1171 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Next the numbers *aren't* perfectly matched. The exports to other countries has increased more than the drop in exports to the US and it it perfectly possible that exports to non-US would have increased anyone even in absence of the Trump tariffs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947338865632809263) 2025-07-21 16:52:20 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks First of all not clear what the shape of the aggregate supply and demand curves are. Second it is obvious from the trade data that the increases in trade for many of the countries is simply not US trade that is being rerouted"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947338351939407893) 2025-07-21 16:50:17 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser The problem is that you are making assumptions about the shape of the supply curve which I think are incorrect. Thinking about how exporters in China work the correct supply curve is likely to the hockey stick. You go into Shenzhen and see lots of factories making stuff"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947482132395528564) 2025-07-22 02:21:37 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@danielbarkeley Absolutely just not to the US and it's not "transshipment" since they seem to want to attract Brazilians to travel to Paraguay. One reason I enjoy a good argument is that I never would have stumbled onto the Paraguayan tire market if it wasn't for me doing some research"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947162431072915701) 2025-07-21 05:11:14 UTC 1164 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks But the basic idea that Chinese exporters are diverting US shipments to other countries is wrong because 1) I am in HK and I can see that this isn't happening and 2) you can look what China is exporting and the increases are in non-US products"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946782557372285210) 2025-07-20 04:01:45 UTC 1171 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The other thing is that you are making assumptions about the demand curve. If it turns out that demand is perfectly elastic then any shift in supply is just going to change output and not prices"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947333522664181797) 2025-07-21 16:31:06 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks And then there is the question of how flexible these curves are. My gut feeling is that the supply curves are relatively inflexible but the demand curves can move suddenly. Also this is all part of "dimensional reduction.""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947450116300017768) 2025-07-22 00:14:24 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @VKMacro Also if you look at the month by month data you will see that there is a spike in exports that happened before US trade collapsed. This was due to preshipment which did move the demand curve"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947363474570695129) 2025-07-21 18:30:07 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"Pretty good talk but its interesting that China isn't in a big hurry to create mega-clusters. The problem is that if you pitch a mega data center to the Politburo their reaction is "oh you just want money for your pet project.""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795680519094731) 2025-07-20 04:53:54 UTC 1169 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser Or there was demand and you were just supply constrained. The problem with what you are doing is that you are making assumptions about the shape of the supply curve. The supply curve is a hockey stick then you have very different conclusions"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947485367055388795) 2025-07-22 02:34:28 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks And that misses the actual transshipment since anything that much of the stuff that ends up in Thailand is actually bound for Russia"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947476682631512141) 2025-07-22 01:59:58 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@dwarkesh_sp I think this has some explanation is that it explains why development in Philippines looks more than Latin America. One thing that the neo-Maoists point out is that even with the disaster of the Great Leap Forward in 1976 life expectancies were much higher than in 1949"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947466639831928879) 2025-07-22 01:20:03 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @real_stevele And that's not even taking into account impact on currency"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947342378530181386) 2025-07-21 17:06:17 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks It's also the case that this is relevant for my day job"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947450204954996888) 2025-07-22 00:14:45 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@Anything4UAnyt @robin_j_brooks Yes. At least I know *why* he has come to the conclusions he has. I think that he is using an economic model that doesn't accurately describe how things actually work. Right now I am trying to figure out if there is anything salvagable from the model"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947343285892354265) 2025-07-21 17:09:53 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks and no particular reason to assume that they all combine in one demand curve. The second thing is that China has been trying to increase demand all over the world. BRI projects are exist specifically to increase demand"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947329243488329929) 2025-07-21 16:14:05 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Why are you repeating this nonsense when someone that actually works with Chinese exporters (i.e. me) is telling you that this isn't happening I've gone through the export process and explained why you've got it wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946428780236726587) 2025-07-19 04:35:58 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So fig one is what he thinks is happening. Tariffs shifts supply curve and suddenly exporters have a big problem. The trouble is that he hasn't talked to any exporters and I have and I think the actual supply curve is a hockey stick"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653539800469949) 2025-07-22 13:42:44 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So you have a lot of small factories and they are price insensitive and make basically zero margin. Think of it this way you are on aliexpress and one factory sells the same product at $X less than another everyone goes to the cheaper one so the price curve is flat"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653832915472649) 2025-07-22 13:43:54 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"So I am just super curious and I was wondering what Nauru was buying and I found it. Turns out that Nauru just bought a fleet of tuna fishing ships"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946495046947340295) 2025-07-19 08:59:17 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks Supply isn't but smart phones are fungible so if you had smart phones that were destined for the US you can sell them to Croatia by changing firmware. This isn't true for tuna boats. @robin_j_brooks economic model is wrong but I am trying to figure out *why* it is wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947447570911134062) 2025-07-22 00:04:17 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher Because EU to Russia is a completely different situation. Transshipment to the US doesn't work because US customs will notice and stop the shipment. If you move product through UAE that ends up in Russia Russian customs won't care"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947154540194845130) 2025-07-21 04:39:53 UTC 1177 followers, 2733 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Hit the hockey stick at which point things go boom and that seems to be the situation with Trump tariffs no one cares if tariffs are 10-30 percent it is only when it hits say XX percent and suddenly the world falls apart"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947655729827221734) 2025-07-22 13:51:26 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"Also if Brooks says "wait I've talked to Chinese exporters and they see something different" than I would be *REALLY* interested. Or maybe there is some problem with my analysis of trade. But its kind of frustrating because he is ignoring my arguments"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946793302877225399) 2025-07-20 04:44:27 UTC 1170 followers, XXX engagements


"Adding movie clip to point out a problem with translations of Chinese. Chinese does not have definite articles *a* and *the*. In English there is a big difference between saying that you want to be *a* great power or *the* great power"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946463192437383426) 2025-07-19 06:52:43 UTC 1171 followers, 1101 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @VKMacro Whoa. What's the basis for saying demand doesn't spike like that"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947362920196935743) 2025-07-21 18:27:55 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"I try to be polite but part of the reason I am being rude is to get a reaction @robin_j_brooks has this theory about Chinese exporters that is obviously wrong and so I am screaming at him so that he gets annoyed enough to argue that I am full of crap"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946782147819512099) 2025-07-20 04:00:08 UTC 1170 followers, 1631 engagements


"@leogray01 @Glenn_Diesen Yeah. Lots of offshore money. The issue with Caymans/BVI is that they now enforce Russian sanctions. The new system is that Russians will get up HK companies but open up bank accounts in Dubai. The US still controls the HK banking system by controlling dollar access but"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947168334606434658) 2025-07-21 05:34:42 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@DjehoutimessouA @nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks Actually been done"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946776033887449576) 2025-07-20 03:35:50 UTC 1170 followers, XX engagements


"So I just posted me digging down and coming up with research showing that this is *totally wrong*. In fact all of these increases in trade have nothing to do directly with Trump tariffs and they were all things that were in the pipe. But rather than showing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946513843938906490) 2025-07-19 10:13:59 UTC 1177 followers, 5328 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Found it Nauru just bought a fleet of Mainland Chinese tuna fishing ships. They had a fleet of Taiwanese built ships but after they changed diplomatic relations I think they may have gotten a gift"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946494782630674604) 2025-07-19 08:58:14 UTC 1176 followers, 1581 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The difference is between @robin_j_brooks and myself is that I live just an hour away from "Santa's Workshop" and I can tell you that he is factual wrong. Because I am a theoretical physicist I can then come up with a theory that explains why he is theoretically wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947659877624455461) 2025-07-22 14:07:55 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"Then after googling various combinations of Nauru China imports Nauru China trade I came on this site. And then I saw *WHOA* massive import of fishing ships. That's XX million USD and the next thing is 174k US in plastic housewares"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946808725274316875) 2025-07-20 05:45:44 UTC 1171 followers, XXX engagements


"@dale_wen @AngelicaOung The problem is that right now Taiwan is demilitarized and the "German model" would involve the US putting bases in Taiwan which it agreed to withdraw in the 1970s. The model which I prefer is the EU-2010 model"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947161642245980289) 2025-07-21 05:08:06 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"And I learned about the Paraguayian tire industry. At this point my investment bank background kicks in. So why is Paraguay a center for cheap tires"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946809653922607307) 2025-07-20 05:49:26 UTC 1171 followers, XXX engagements


"@petereharrell Trump has done a good job on preventing retaliation. Basically Trump has made it clear that if you retaliate he is willing to nuke you economically. China is the only country that both can and is willing to retaliate"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946790443171422235) 2025-07-20 04:33:05 UTC 1172 followers, XXX engagements


"So I am looking at stacks of Chinese made tires and a fast talking salesman and it makes me feel better than talking about weapons and war"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946510972518305932) 2025-07-19 10:02:34 UTC 1167 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @justwannasayth2 I found it. Tuna ships. Also this gets me down the rabbit whole of tuna fishing in the Pacific. This also shows the dangers of jumping to conclusions since there is nothing here that suggests anything to do with the trade war"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946495385125707869) 2025-07-19 09:00:38 UTC 1158 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The price curve is flat until you get capacity limits at which case it spikes up. So what happens with the trump tariffs basically nothing. So why did Chinese exports go up its because the non-US demand curve moved and you saw this in Q1 when non-US exports increased"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947654732941844745) 2025-07-22 13:47:28 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks The third question I am thinking about is "how do you measure prices in a world of flexible currency values""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448981937860665) 2025-07-22 00:09:53 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand This isn't where the tech transfer happened. What happened was that you had people that worked for VC firms that moved back to China and then started their own VC firms. The other thing is that Chinese VC rather differently than Western VC"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945747032687452486) 2025-07-17 07:26:57 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"Now if you translate the rest of the text you quickly figure out that China wants to be *a* global leader. But then if you want to twist the quote then you just leave out that part"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946463966596878423) 2025-07-19 06:55:47 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand When you have a VC fund structure it is often an LGFV and then you have a lot of implicit liabilities and lines of control"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945750179648614911) 2025-07-17 07:39:27 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"I've ended up on Team China rather than Team USA. China is talking about trade and making people rich. So researched what Paraguay is buying from China and ended up with a youtube video of a Paraguayan tire salesman getting business from Brazil"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946510732323090745) 2025-07-19 10:01:37 UTC 1177 followers, 1785 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The other obvious problem is that you have an microeconomic supply curve. If you assume that aggregate supply is Keynesian then it is going to be horizontal where it hits AD and so if you shift it its not going to make any difference"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947337406405062662) 2025-07-21 16:46:32 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@hendersongus @robin_j_brooks Its not and brooks is talking crap. What is *obvious* once you to through the trade data is that China has been diversifying its exports in expectation of the Trump tariffs. The big export of China to Switzerland and vice versa is gold"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946780457523446195) 2025-07-20 03:53:25 UTC 1171 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So I am trying to see if this can help trace out the shape of the supply and demand curves. A lot of economics reduces to drawing two lines and seeing how they cross and I am trying to figure out how if you can put some of trade dynamics into this language"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947350161774264510) 2025-07-21 17:37:13 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@GaryHaubold Except that it's not. You need to read my comments where I go through point by point at show that Brooks has no idea what he is talking about. Once you look at the mix of exports it becomes obvious that China started promoting non-US exports last year"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947322340921979150) 2025-07-21 15:46:40 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@magsnapshots @plantmoretreez @hunterx11 It won't. If changing the name and the flag were the only barriers to reunification that would be easy. However the issue with that Taiwan independence don't want any sort of unification under any name or situation"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947318916960936413) 2025-07-21 15:33:03 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks They are now on a customs blacklist and customs will not only seize the goods but then go through all of the previous shipments and sent you a nasty bill"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947476208922595464) 2025-07-22 01:58:05 UTC 1172 followers, XX engagements


"@Sakaushka @RnaudBertrand XX% false. Because there is state money involved if it turns out that the VC fund paid a lot of money to a very rich party official they *will* try to claw back the cash if the fund goes bust"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945754027620512156) 2025-07-17 07:54:45 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @Brad_Setser The problem with economic intuition is that it might be just wrong. If you are here in Hong Kong people have been preparing for the Trump shock since 2018 and companies are diversifying supply chains and export partners"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947477367175451094) 2025-07-22 02:02:41 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@dwarkesh_sp The thing that is true with all East Asian societies that experienced a takeoff is that they all had a class revolution. In the case of Japan it was done by Douglas MacArthur rather than Mao"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947465300217368880) 2025-07-22 01:14:44 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@ColanMitchellAU @TheDailyMao @ElbridgeColby There is a lot of wink wink but this has its limits. What the US appears to want is a NATO situation where the US is in command of all Asia troops in a Taiwan situation but you really can't do that without explicitly getting rid of one China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947531771136119095) 2025-07-22 05:38:52 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@magsnapshots @plantmoretreez @hunterx11 The thing that I think will kill independence is if Mainland and Taiwan start talks on trade and peace and then six months later everything is more or less the same except people make more money from the trade"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947323028200927403) 2025-07-21 15:49:24 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"One thing about NVidia being about to sell chips to China is that the Chinese govt wants foreign companies in China to kick the local companies into shape. This worked beautifully with Tesla and the Chinese govt wants NVidia in China so that Huawei gets a run for its money"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946341501203800512) 2025-07-18 22:49:09 UTC 1177 followers, 9255 engagements


"@RebeccaYChan It depends on the company. Costco and Sam's Club are doing great as are American fast food places. The other thing is that Jeep is now owned by an Italian company and things have gone downhill"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947311394275119256) 2025-07-21 15:03:10 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"So I've been having a heated argument with @robin_j_brooks over the effects of the Trump tariffs on Chinese exporters. He argues based on macroeconomics that the tariffs must be hurting chinese exporters and I think he has his curves wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653179606544562) 2025-07-22 13:41:18 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks People should look at my rebuttal. Basically I argue that he has his supply curve wrong and if you change the shape of the supply curve the conclusion changes. Also China's growth model *isn't* critically dependent on exports"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947658957033800071) 2025-07-22 14:04:15 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@IsabellaAn67 China has stated its arguments under int law. You may disagree with them but you can't argue that they don't exist. The problem is that PH is getting the support from US that doesn't give a damn about int law. Just look at Gaza. Also US has blown up UNCLOS"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946450725682512297) 2025-07-19 06:03:10 UTC 1150 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Or maybe demand has changed and your theory is wrong. If you look at the trade data that I showed the increase in trade to many nations was doing to increase in exports. It's as if Chinese exporters knew that the US would be closing markets and developed new markets"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947327216892928266) 2025-07-21 16:06:02 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks This is a weird prediction and but its the weird predictions that are interesting so we see in six months. If it turns out that the US/China trade deficit is as large as always with a 30-50 percent tariff we have an explanation as to why. If that doesn't happen they we"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947656929507217744) 2025-07-22 13:56:12 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"The thing is that China spent *YEARS* preparing for a trade war with Trump. So when it came time China was ready and the US backed down. The thing is that I don't think that the EU is ready if Trump decides to go full embargo and cut off trade with Europe"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946446082399195473) 2025-07-19 05:44:43 UTC 1164 followers, XXX engagements


"Well back in the 2010's my view was that the Chinese govt was overly paranoid and that the US didn't have any evil intent against China. Turns out that I was the idiot. I've ended up on the side of Team China is that people in China aren't scheming about the end of the US"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795059128725637) 2025-07-20 04:51:26 UTC 1177 followers, 21.4K engagements


"When you have a theory about something it's worth spending some time digging and finding out if you are right. So I spent an hour digging the data and it looks like Nauru isn't *transshipping* Chinese goods but rather they just bought a fleet of tuna ships"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946497201511002554) 2025-07-19 09:07:51 UTC 1177 followers, 255.2K engagements


"how the US is hurting Chinese exporters and how China is so dependent on the American consumer once you do some research you find the *opposite* that China is the world manufacturing hub and is making tuna fish boats for Nauru LNG tankers for Qatar rubber tires for Paraguay"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946514532786176041) 2025-07-19 10:16:43 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@FabiusMaximus01 @Brad_Setser No. The problem with messing with currency values is that you end up with all sorts of unpredictable and dangerous consequences. I prefer tariffs over currency appreciation since the impact even when negative is clear"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1944038351889477762) 2025-07-12 14:17:16 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@real_stevele @robin_j_brooks I am of the opinion that a simple supply-demand model won't work"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947342191464223160) 2025-07-21 17:05:32 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@Sakaushka @RnaudBertrand The thing about Chinese investment is that usually the capital structure is really really complicated so when a fund fails it is "Game of Thrones" time. But when they go after founders then XX% of the time they should"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945754404130525272) 2025-07-17 07:56:14 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@magsnapshots @plantmoretreez @hunterx11 No it won't. Also Beijing has said that they will be willing to discuss anything under XX consensus. Personally I think its better if people start with trade talks and talks to end the state of war"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947322811514761499) 2025-07-21 15:48:32 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"And the so I learned something. This then gets you into the industry of fisheries but that was depressing. So I started going through the other countries"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946809334534726053) 2025-07-20 05:48:09 UTC 1171 followers, XXX engagements


"@fteconomics Because most companies in China are cash rich they are much less sensitive to interest rates than Western companies. If you want to do stimulus you change the bank reserve rate or do fiscal stuff"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945694175380521183) 2025-07-17 03:56:55 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks What's going to happen unless someone wants to argue the point is that this is going to go in my subconscious and I'll be thinking about this in the background. Would be interested if someone can point out papers on this because it is not at all obvious to me that you can"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947449721578262784) 2025-07-22 00:12:50 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @Brad_Setser A lot of this involves just *selling*. Going to trade shows getting the names of distributors and then calling them up to buy your stuff. Also exporters tend to be supply limited and not demand limited"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947477757266694510) 2025-07-22 02:04:14 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks The second question that I am interested in is "can trade by explained in terms of aggregate supply and demand curves and if so what is the shape of the curve." So right now I am toying with the idea that yes and the curves have Keynesian shapes"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448714152579290) 2025-07-22 00:08:49 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"My views change when I get new information. Two days ago I didn't know about Nauru fishing boats so this is what I did"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946807843405082899) 2025-07-20 05:42:14 UTC 1177 followers, 7322 engagements


"@adam_tooze @KaiserKuo @gonglei89 So what's happened is that local govts last year are putting in money to stabilize the market. The trouble is that you have a frozen market and so when you put in money that helps for a while but then the market unfreezes and prices go down more"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946333931923734573) 2025-07-18 22:19:05 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@not___a__bot @wmhuo168 You are allowed to trade bitcoin but you are not allowed to have a business trading bitcoin. Essentially they are putting bitcoin under the same rules as foreign exchange. You can't use anything other than RMB as payment"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946331657923186911) 2025-07-18 22:10:02 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks A lot of what is going on turns out to be pretty obvious once you are on the ground"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947476826751959536) 2025-07-22 02:00:32 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Before the Trump tariffs. Now there is graph X which I present as evidence that the supply curve is a hockey stick. So lets consider *US* exports and assume things to the other way. So what happens You have a XX% tariff and nothing happens. And nothing happens until you"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947655365581279456) 2025-07-22 13:49:59 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks One problem is the shape of the supply curve. I would assume that you'd want a Keynesian aggregate supply curve in which case shifting the curve left or right won't make a difference"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947348107458498608) 2025-07-21 17:29:03 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks It looks like Nauru is trying to regulate tuna catches (which makes sense because they got burned by phospate)"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946775591778419075) 2025-07-20 03:34:05 UTC 1170 followers, XX engagements


"@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks Its not because if you look at the things that are being exported. It's stuff that is consumed in country X"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946813916090372339) 2025-07-20 06:06:22 UTC 1171 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks For Switzerland the main imports are Gold and nitrogen heterocyclic compounds and commodities not otherwise specified. Looks like drug precursors"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946779100737364099) 2025-07-20 03:48:01 UTC 1178 followers, 2591 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks This is all wrong. The issue is that non-US goods are not substitutable for US goods and so if you have a supply shock on US exports it doesn't change the supply curve for non-US goods"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947332137902035106) 2025-07-21 16:25:36 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks So all models are wrong but some models are useful. Part of the reason you have models is so you can make predictions. So if this model is right then it makes the prediction that *Trump tariffs will not affect Chinese imports* as long as it is in the flat area"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947656515411705893) 2025-07-22 13:54:33 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks And then you have to have a distributor that plays along. If the items get to Long Beach and customs looks at this and says "wait they don't make iPhones in Thailand" at that point the distributor is totally hosed. Not only is that shipment getting seized but"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947475938171863178) 2025-07-22 01:57:00 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks If you can't sell at the lowest price you go out of business. Also Chinese exporters are supply constrained. So they will take as many orders as they can and they are usually overbooked. So when a US customer cancels then have another non-US customer they can sell to"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947654174080176622) 2025-07-22 13:45:15 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks Yes. That sums it up. Also I live in HK next to the factories and there are reasons that the scenario he posts won't work"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946811837368123460) 2025-07-20 05:58:06 UTC 1172 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein If the US stops running trade deficits then you don't have a source of dollars to work as the reserve currency. The fact that Trump is going after China over trade deficits just blows up the entire system. If the US insists on balanced trade then China has to adjust"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946111106482831472) 2025-07-18 07:33:39 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk One thing that is pretty clear to me is that the decision to let Evergrande and Country Garden collapse was specifically so that capital would move out of real estate into tech"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1943553884347371782) 2025-07-11 06:12:10 UTC 1178 followers, 1622 engagements


"The fascinating thing is that no one in China gives a crap about AGI. People are interested in AI for immediate practical things like lowering customer support costs"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945347788541419617) 2025-07-16 05:00:30 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser Think about going to aliexpress if you have another factory that sells the same item for XXXX cents less you go with them. What this means is that the market is perfectly elastic. At which point if you move the supply curve left and right nothing happens"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947483473511649375) 2025-07-22 02:26:57 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"The Chinese lack of *a* and *the* is part of this funny clip"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946464098155405394) 2025-07-19 06:56:19 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks Also some of this is set up to show how people think. I believed (and still believe) that @robin_j_brooks started with a desired conclusion (the tariffs are hurting China) and then came up with a model to support the conclusion"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947449363892195572) 2025-07-22 00:11:24 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks Its hard to model any sort of complex system but its cool when you have something that sort of works. One thing you can try to to see if you can break apart the system"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947457124390604951) 2025-07-22 00:42:15 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@denisewu This is false. You can look at the nationality law for details. But whether you are a Chinese national depends on whether or not your parents were permanent residents or citizens at the time of birth"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947158383683137934) 2025-07-21 04:55:09 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Also China Q1 surplus was high which you can't attribute directly to Trump tariffs since that happened before "Liberation Day". It did happen in the context that everyone expected Trump to increase tariffs so there was pre-shipping"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947340601009312042) 2025-07-21 16:59:13 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks All models are wrong. Some models are useful. So I am thinking like a physicist. You have a simplified model of economic behavior that is making incorrect predictions. So trying to think through *why* is useful"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947447801534943439) 2025-07-22 00:05:12 UTC 1176 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Also you get into "post hoc prompter hoc" issues. So non-US Chinese exports increased massively after the Trump tariffs but. That doesn't mean that you would not have had an export bump without Trump"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783112144503166) 2025-07-20 04:03:58 UTC 1171 followers, XXX engagements


"So the thing that I noticed was that this was a huge amount for a small country. It's a good fraction of GDP so I figured that there was some interesting story here. So I picked up google and started looking at Nauru govt sites to see if there was anything"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946808203683205240) 2025-07-20 05:43:40 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"So it turns out that *none* of this has to do with transshipment or exporters and it looks like people are just buying more stuff from China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946509205764297204) 2025-07-19 09:55:33 UTC 1177 followers, 5677 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Now my alternative thesis is that what happened is that Chinese govt and exporters understood that US trade was limited and so diversified their exports to non-US sources"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946782825845538944) 2025-07-20 04:02:49 UTC 1171 followers, XXX engagements


"@StrategyEmerg @dawn2042 In the case of Qatar the spike in trade numbers is due to LNG ships. It shows that the scenario that Brooks posted of Chinese exporters desperate because of US consumers is wrong"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946774822463357027) 2025-07-20 03:31:01 UTC 1170 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Jezzus. Have you looked at the responses where I debunked your nonsense Okay let me pull up the trade figures from Albania and Switzerland"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946777397493461215) 2025-07-20 03:41:15 UTC 1170 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks I am trying to be polite but you aren't making it easy. Albania imports cars and iron bars from China. The cars are under Trump tariffs as far as iron bars. Albania has a massive scrap plant in Kurum"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946778201604477403) 2025-07-20 03:44:27 UTC 1170 followers, XXX engagements


"So the Chinese political system is trying to optimize for maximum social benefit. If it turns out that creating mega-clusters does create AGI then China can do that very quickly but this hasn't been proven and right now China is focusing more on applications of AI"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795984404795487) 2025-07-20 04:55:07 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"This is kind of unreal how some people just can't look at things like facts. Once you dig through what countries are importing it is *obvious* that what happened that the Trump tariffs are not having an impact on exporters. In fact the story that seems to be the case"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946779485526974664) 2025-07-20 03:49:33 UTC 1177 followers, 3840 engagements


"Something that I find remarkable about Chinese funding is how decentralized it is. In the US most science and technology funding goes through the Federal govt which means that you end up talking with Congress and it means that there is one location for lobbyists to focus"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945444628154687617) 2025-07-16 11:25:18 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The reason cell phone and electronics is interesting is I am wondering if the fact that they are can be moved easily from US to non-US changes accounts for why Trump caved in so quickly"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947349162443653409) 2025-07-21 17:33:14 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"Also the EU is just not set up for a trade war. In the case of China when Trump does X they have a meeting pull out the plans and immediately do Y. With the EU everything requires a committee meeting which means that you get into divide and conquer"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946446540710801429) 2025-07-19 05:46:33 UTC 1150 followers, XXX engagements


"I am pretty willing to debate this. "Personal experience" convinces me but it might not convince you. So I know Chinese exporters and I know what is going on in SZ. So that convinces me. Now you aren't me so you have to figure out how much to trust me or not"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946792563245261215) 2025-07-20 04:41:31 UTC 1177 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks I am trying to see if I can make some of the actual dynamics fit in the language of supply and demand. So what seems to be the case is that exporters really don't mind increased tariffs of XX or XX percent but once you hit XX or XX then the supply curve just drops to zero"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947349574466867702) 2025-07-21 17:34:53 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Nope. In the case of Nauru it is a "gift" from Beijing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946003389558710511) 2025-07-18 00:25:37 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser The factories in SZ operate at almost no margin because you have a situation close to perfect competition. So if you have a demand shock factories go out of business. But then the workers go to other factories"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947484122886320473) 2025-07-22 02:29:32 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks I haven't looked at the numbers but my guess is that Palau doesn't have these sorts of numbers"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946003801829490954) 2025-07-18 00:27:16 UTC 1157 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Also its funny you talk about transshipment whereas pretty much everything that goes through HK is transshipped so you really need to add CH+HK"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947339975550226620) 2025-07-21 16:56:44 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks It would make sense for China to increase trade with non-US areas even without Trump. Also once you dig into the numbers you see how the US is losing ground to China when it comes to manufacturing"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783757954117753) 2025-07-20 04:06:32 UTC 1171 followers, XXX engagements


"@petereharrell I strongly disagree is that if you just use the CPI index and run the tariffs through them the impact on total CPI is a rounding error. One way of illustrating this is to assume tariffs increase doubles the cost of an iPhones. How many iPhones a month do you buy anyway"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946791452916535307) 2025-07-20 04:37:06 UTC 1171 followers, XXX engagements


"Qatar just bought a new fleet of LNG tankers from China Bulgaria trade is batteries and they just set up a new plant for BYD Hungary is commodites not otherwise specificed and batteries - they have a BYD plant Jordan is importing cars Jamaica is doing steel"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946507825460699306) 2025-07-19 09:50:04 UTC 1176 followers, 6134 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Okay I just did some digging and it appears that in May 2025 someone on Nauru bought fishing ships from China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946492772514681238) 2025-07-19 08:50:15 UTC 1176 followers, XXX engagements


"So I am looking at youtube videos for low low prices in tires in Paraguay and cell phones and then turns out everything is made in China"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946508903568871869) 2025-07-19 09:54:21 UTC 1177 followers, 5394 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher Goes to Russia or Mars. All I care about is that the bank gets the wire from Dubai and this goes in my account. So I ship my iPhones to UAE or Thailand and if they resell to Russia none of my concern"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947155483854590217) 2025-07-21 04:43:38 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@Glenn_Diesen Also you note that China started dropping during Trump XXX and my thesis is that the inflation during COVID was due to China and Russia refusing to fund the US. Because the US can't get cash from China and Russia it is desperately trying to squeeze money from its "allies""  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947166994014572884) 2025-07-21 05:29:22 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@thecyrusjanssen What is funny/sad/scary is that you just remove the name China and replace the name Russia Iran Iraq Afghanistan and you end up with the same report"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946794516209656196) 2025-07-20 04:49:17 UTC 1176 followers, 2005 engagements


"So first of all the diagrams are misleading and you see this spike right after 2025 but then the whole diagram is spiky so after going through the databases I found"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946507273284788679) 2025-07-19 09:47:52 UTC 1176 followers, 5680 engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein China is going super into high tech right now. We aren't peasants growing rice. Global trust You are kidding me. Look I try to be polite but people are so *delusional* that it's hard for me to stomach it. You believe what you want and I'll just wait for reality to hit"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946106496619798831) 2025-07-18 07:15:20 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@GlennLuk @robin_j_brooks So among the issues 1) he is assuming a form for the supply/demand curve 2) no account for currency depreciation 3) fungibility issues"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448040467697736) 2025-07-22 00:06:09 UTC 1177 followers, XX engagements


"Funding in China is incredibly decentralized because you have different funders and govts each with different pools of capital. One reason I think the why the system works is that the people that decide priorities aren't the people that decide funding"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945445406202359898) 2025-07-16 11:28:24 UTC 1178 followers, XXX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks First of all I don't trust AI to do research. AI gets things wrong. For example I've posted the fishing boat registry. Yes my story does change every day. It's called learning new stuff and changing my views to fit the facts and new information"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946807114623828092) 2025-07-20 05:39:20 UTC 1178 followers, 4487 engagements


"HAHAHAHAHA. Funny to have someone argue that you don't exist. He is arguing that China can't surpass the US because somehow the US has this monopoly on creativity and dynamism. (i.e. people like me don't exist in China)"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946798678578249750) 2025-07-20 05:05:49 UTC 1178 followers, 1698 engagements


"@robin_j_brooks If you look at the sectors that China is exporting in and the deals you will see that most of them were set up *before* Trump did his tariffs which means that you would see an export bump without Trump and this makes sense because with all of the talk about decoupling"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783456039784946) 2025-07-20 04:05:20 UTC 1171 followers, XXX engagements


"@SomethingOnSnow And the fact that China might respond to all of the talk of the US decoupling by developing other markets has never occurred to people"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946794108581986501) 2025-07-20 04:47:39 UTC 1171 followers, XX engagements


"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Also you forget one big thing. The US is *unwilling* to run trade deficits with China. So the system is over. Trump wants the US to stop running trade deficits at which point the *whole freaking system falls apart*. People in China are working on the new system"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946110277067608401) 2025-07-18 07:30:21 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements


"@robin_j_brooks @MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser But that means that if a US customer backs out they have a customer from somewhere else that wants to buy their stuff. Also they because they are in a situation of perfect competition they have infinite price elasticity"  
![@joequant Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::45808758.png) [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1947482903749005330) 2025-07-22 02:24:41 UTC 1178 followers, XX engagements