[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @joequant Joequant Joequant posts on X about china, if you, taiwan, tariffs the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXXX +7.80% - X Months XXXXXXXXX +24,556% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/posts_active)  - X Week XXX -XX% - X Month XXX -XX% - X Months XXXXX +4,661% ### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/followers)  - X Week XXXXX +2.60% - X Month XXXXX +16% - X Months XXXXX +1,884% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) XXXXX% [finance](/list/finance) XXXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies) XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) XXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXXX% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [china](/topic/china) #3697, [if you](/topic/if-you) 6.17%, [taiwan](/topic/taiwan) #1190, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #1648, [countries](/topic/countries) 2.47%, [finance](/topic/finance) #3305, [money](/topic/money) 2.47%, [rates](/topic/rates) 1.85%, [i dont](/topic/i-dont) 1.85%, [to the](/topic/to-the) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@leisenfelder](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@kyleichan](/creator/undefined) [@tphuang](/creator/undefined) [@adcha91](/creator/undefined) [@brianhioe](/creator/undefined) [@iamhere4theads](/creator/undefined) [@stevehou](/creator/undefined) [@ericfine123](/creator/undefined) [@kahguia](/creator/undefined) [@teortaxestex](/creator/undefined) [@crowcasey182573](/creator/undefined) [@baldingsworld](/creator/undefined) [@jonsindreu](/creator/undefined) [@thebaron22](/creator/undefined) [@kitjuckes](/creator/undefined) [@rnaudbertrand](/creator/undefined) [@masterofnonees](/creator/undefined) [@lylejmorris](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "And the reason that everyone in East Asia runs a trade surplus is precisely so that they have a huge forex reserve so that they can ignore the IMF" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1995861556517896369) 2025-12-02T14:24Z 2975 followers, 3717 engagements "Also someone pointed out what a game changer EV's and solar are to the global south. If you are on an oil infrastructure then you have to keep importing oiland that means that you have to run a trade surplus in order to get the dollars you need to pay for your oil" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997567713817075795) 2025-12-07T07:23Z 2975 followers, 1041 engagements "Actually if you read this sort of nonsense you see why a lot of people on Taiwan that are super-KMT are now more and more favorable to the CCP. PRC and ROC are both *CHINA* and by trying to split up Chinese people are going into more and more ridiculous stuff" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1996238002448912861) 2025-12-03T15:20Z 2922 followers, 7066 engagements "@jacksonhinklle This isn't breaking news. Also she is the head of the Chinese Nationalist Party. And so I find it weird that people are surprised that she is a Chinese nationalist" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997207966311952753) 2025-12-06T07:34Z 2924 followers, XXX engagements "The reason that China is basically not interested in changing the fiscal system to benefit German auto workers is that they have a tough enough job as it is making something work given the political constraints in China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997935958038298897) 2025-12-08T07:47Z 2936 followers, 1819 engagements "@robin_j_brooks Repeating nonsense doesn't make it true" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998428157763080611) 2025-12-09T16:22Z 2934 followers, XX engagements "@EricFine123 @robin_j_brooks No. Because China has low inflation. Europe has high inflation. China has low interest rates and Europe has to have high ones. That's fixes the value of the RMB" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998428415972827566) 2025-12-09T16:23Z 2936 followers, XX engagements "not GDP should grow at X percent or X percent and they agreed at X percent. Also a lot of stuff is resolved by "lets try it out and see out it works." For example if two different groups have different ideas on how semiconductor develop works you just have two" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998439807513669845) 2025-12-09T17:09Z 2934 followers, XXX engagements "One reason I don't think that the deposits are state deposits is I don't see how this works. So when you pay someone in China USD they keep the USD. So in order for this to become state property they have to pay you CNY but if the PBC prints CNY this shows up in reserves" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998442240981741824) 2025-12-09T17:18Z 2936 followers, XXX engagements "The PBC could loan banks CNY to buy USD but once I start drawing boxes none of this makes sense" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998442243020181508) 2025-12-09T17:18Z 2936 followers, XXX engagements "@Brad_Setser You are missing out US/China exports. Trump has massively reduced the US/China trade deficit" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998444514827186563) 2025-12-09T17:27Z 2932 followers, XX engagements "@Brad_Setser @wsj_douglasj @JonathanEmont This is completely ignoring the fact that Trump has drastically shrunk the US/China trade deficit. Chinese exports to the US have shrunk dramatically because of the Trump tariffs. China is reorienting exports to the rest of the world but that's not something that Trump cares" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998444854628753477) 2025-12-09T17:29Z 2933 followers, 1372 engagements "So one thing that I don't understand is why @Brad_Setser focuses on the total exports that China makes any not just on the US/China trade deficit. One thing about the Trump tariffs is that they have radically reduced the volume of Chinese exports to the United States" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998448409993425234) 2025-12-09T17:43Z 2934 followers, XXX engagements "@Brad_Setser This is true for Vietnam false for Taiwan. The assembly tends to go Taiwan-Mainland. Also China would be more than happy to skip Vietnam and do final assembly in Mississippi or West Virginia" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998448993433727456) 2025-12-09T17:45Z 2933 followers, XX engagements "So one thing that I do object to with @Brad_Setser is that he puts together a big graph showing that China has a massive trade surplus and then concludes that the rest of the world should gang up on China. I don't think this *SHOULD* happen and I will strongly argue that it" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998476320888721605) 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2936 followers, XXX engagements "*WON'T* happen and this becomes more obvious once you separate out the trade by country. Al Jazeera has a nice chart that shows Chinese trade by country" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998476322658803896) 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2934 followers, XX engagements "One thing that comes up is that how many countries run a trade *surplus* with China. In particular Australia runs a big trade surplus as do most African countries. So China imports more from DRCongo than it exports. It's that these are resource countries" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998476324772749655) 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2934 followers, XX engagements "So what China does is to important low value minerals and then transform them into high value manufactured goods. However with those resource countries are running a trade surplus with China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998476326433665264) 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2934 followers, XX engagements "Continuing the conversation with @Brad_Setser on Chinese trade. First of all I have to thank AlJazeera for having this very nice table that splits up Chinese trade by nation" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998478194098450815) 2025-12-09T19:41Z 2936 followers, XXX engagements "@Brad_Setser @stevehou @jonsindreu The Chinese currency system is mostly market driven. Also regardless of currency policy Europe is still sunk. So if you adjust currency values then China makes somewhat more expensive EV's but Europe can't make competitive EV's at all. So I don't think that messing with" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999287466256449999) 2025-12-12T01:17Z 2974 followers, XXX engagements "hurting US policy. So right now the debates are the mix of fiscal/monetary policy and the mix of investment/consumption as well as questions like how do we implement a "unified national market." If you really understood what people in China were arguing about" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998950760105808062) 2025-12-11T02:59Z 2975 followers, XX engagements "The interesting thing is that big tech/big finance in the US do exactly that. Elon Musk and Jensen Huang tell the Chinese govt that they would like Beijing to do X so that they make more money and Beijing listens. If you got Elon or Jensen to argue that Beijing should" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998950763876462728) 2025-12-11T02:59Z 2975 followers, XX engagements "increase the value of the CNY people would at least discuss it. However getting an op-ed piece in Bloomberg or FT gets you nothing. Also if you got Goldman-Sachs or JPMorgan to push for RMB appreciation then this would at least get it on the agenda" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998950765671690634) 2025-12-11T02:59Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements "@Brad_Setser @stevehou @jonsindreu Also what is the number So if the CNY was say XX percent stronger we would be looking at a trade surplus of XXX billion rather than X trillion still doesn't help Germany. Getting the trade surplus to zero is just not possible by messing with currency" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999288023922672065) 2025-12-12T01:19Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements "So one important thing about the National Security Strategy is that it has a weird answer to the question "why should the US go to war over Taiwan" The traditional answer is that Taiwan is a *GOOD DEMOCRACY* and Mainland China is run by *EVIL COMMUNIST AUTHORITARIANS*" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997172417492668544) 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2941 followers, 1226 engagements "But that's not the rationale for war. The rationale is that the US must defend the first island chain and if Taiwan gets invaded that punches a hole in the defensive line which means that the PLAN can sail to Guam" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997172419304493318) 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2940 followers, XXX engagements "@Brad_Setser Since the exports are solar panels and electric vehicles it's not hyperbole to argue that China may have saved the planet from total environmental destruction. The amount of total human wealth that is generated by giving billions of people mobility and energy is amazing" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997340967998030084) 2025-12-06T16:22Z 2941 followers, 1942 engagements "@Bevin83994661 Nothing new here. The thing is that he says he can't change the name but he has been trying to create an "independent ROC=Taiwan" equation" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997683306796859528) 2025-12-07T15:03Z 2942 followers, XX engagements "@Bevin83994661 No he hasn't. He is trying to go with the two nation theory by which ROC and PRC are separate nations and that ROC=Taiwan. The big thing is if he accepts XX consensus and the idea that ROC is still the constitutional govt of the Mainland things will change but I am not" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997684047242494358) 2025-12-07T15:06Z 2942 followers, XX engagements "@Brad_Setser @GannicusJA So one thing that China did was to unlaterially remove all import tariffs on African goods. Resource-rich countries like DRC or Australia are running trade surpluses with China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997832702201147481) 2025-12-08T00:56Z 2941 followers, XX engagements "European/Japanese interests over Chinese interests. The thing is that with NSS-2025 it looks like Trump agrees with me more than he agrees with you. What I would like to see is for Trump to go back to Phase X and then invite a ton of Chinese CEO's ready to put Chinese" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997949567564960003) 2025-12-08T08:41Z 2942 followers, XXX engagements "@Luftstalag14 @jukan05 Sure but its too late for that. I suspect the bigger problem is that US AI companies are in trouble and so NVidia needs more cash" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998613693786140807) 2025-12-10T04:40Z 2940 followers, XXX engagements "By contrast good luck if I try to get a security clearance or work for a DC think tank. In fact I try to stay away from that because I am the first person that they will slam if something goes missing. Worth noting that astrophysicists do three things" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998952752609960440) 2025-12-11T03:07Z 2940 followers, XXX engagements "These are limited. Ultimately the big number that influences the value of CNY/USD is the interest rate difference. Because US is lowering interest rates this will cause CNY to go up but this isn't going to help Europe very much as long as Euro interest rates are high" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999023961041154150) 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2935 followers, XX engagements "H200 gets China a ton of goodwill and political leverage while it is still working on local alternatives. Also if I were Alibaba and Tencent the ideal situation for me would be if I could buy from *both* NVidia and Huawei so that I can get them to fight with each other" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999296866786378049) 2025-12-12T01:54Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements "@kyleichan @tphuang No not unique. They are publishing their research so that they other models in the Chinese ecosystem can take advantage of it. The thing about DeepSeek is that they don't make money directly from the AI" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1996012893582880905) 2025-12-03T00:25Z 2960 followers, XXX engagements "@kyleichan @tphuang In fact *none* of the Chinese players make money directly from the AI. This means that when someone figures out something new that they want to share the stuff with the other players. So if Alibaba takes DeepSeek stuff and incorporates it into Qwen then both Alibaba and" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1996013221782954267) 2025-12-03T00:26Z 2959 followers, XXX engagements "This seems to be an example of people that have no idea what they are talking about. Quantum computing/cryptography is interesting but its not this sort of magic game changer" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1996225414507962821) 2025-12-03T14:30Z 2947 followers, 3102 engagements "They you could push the debate in a direction that fits your interests which would be great if you state what your interests are. For example arguing that China should do more fiscal than monetary policy would have the effect of increasing CNY/USD" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998950762022584507) 2025-12-11T02:59Z 2942 followers, XX engagements "Absolutely true. The fact that am in both the American and Chinese networks makes me very hireable in finance and tech and if someone in a big investment bank finds out that I like the Chinese Communist Party they will ask me if I have any contacts that need money managed" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998952750361772381) 2025-12-11T03:07Z 2952 followers, 2945 engagements "Is it just me or are people assuming the IMF is more important than it is. If you are a Latin American countries and the IMF loan sharks tell you to do something then you do it. On the other hand I think that Chinese officials will respond to the IMF by saying" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999015583980073133) 2025-12-11T07:17Z 2973 followers, 1898 engagements "@Brad_Setser It doesn't show that. It shows that *someone* is buying USD and given that interest rates on USD are higher than CNY thats hardly a surprise" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999018360735150163) 2025-12-11T07:28Z 2942 followers, XX engagements "Or maybe they understand how the exchange rate regime works and you don't. When the PBC fixes the exchange rate they are influenced by market factors. If the fix goes high or low then the PBC will have to either buy and sell reserves to maintain the value. The state banks" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999020285253792111) 2025-12-11T07:35Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements "Are *not* intervening at the fix but rather forwarding orders from their clients and right now people want dollars because the offshore interest rates are higher than the onshore ones. PBC can move the exchange rates but that would involve hitting foreign exchange reserves" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999020287103479983) 2025-12-11T07:35Z 2952 followers, XXX engagements "Made some comments here but @Brad_Setser just does not understand how Chinese exchange rate system works. The USD/CNY value is *NOT* an independent policy tool. The Chinese govt does have some flexibility to move USD/CNY (i.e. capital controls and exchange operations) but" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999023959271162009) 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2973 followers, XXX engagements "Honestly I think that trying to get the PRC to appreciate the CNY significantly is a waste of time. @Brad_Setser is misintepreting the amount of USD in Chinese banks as state intervention when in fact it is the *lack* of state intervention and most of those holdings are" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999023964367298718) 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2951 followers, XXX engagements "Non-state. Because they aren't using the state banks to intervene then can't stop doing what they are not doing. One good thing about the IMF trip is that the IMF can raise these issues directly with policy makers in Beijing and ask them directly about these things" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999023967483666438) 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2963 followers, XXX engagements "@stevehou My explanation is that the CNY is weak and the US dollar is strong because of Chinese capital controls. Put simply you can't use onshore CNY for anything outside of China but with USD you can use that everywhere. If you want to do international trade you use USD and so that" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999059704153264578) 2025-12-11T10:12Z 2952 followers, XXX engagements "@baoshaoshan Yeah so why is it that the RMB is that undervalued and the USD is not overvalued. You can argue that the USD is overvalued by looking at the GDP and median income of West Virginia" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999147529259438129) 2025-12-11T16:01Z 2947 followers, XX engagements "@Brad_Setser The idea that US interests are better served by aligning with Russia and China would seem insane to the Washington crowd but its got a ton of support in big tech and big finance and among American voters. Basically the national security state has nothing to offer voters but" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999161165545611365) 2025-12-11T16:55Z 2950 followers, XX engagements "@Brad_Setser war and economic misery and with Russia about to win in Ukraine big tech big finance and main street are fed up with this nonsense. Trump sees this. Trump is a real estate developer his entire business involved taking cash from rich Russians and Chinese and" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999161959049236685) 2025-12-11T16:58Z 2958 followers, XX engagements "@Brad_Setser If. I dont think that the PBC is linking the CNY to USD. The issue here is that if the Fed cuts rates there isnt much that the PBC can do to weaken the CNY since interest rates are close to zero and inflation is not viable" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999180969086189986) 2025-12-11T18:14Z 2952 followers, XXX engagements "@Brad_Setser @stevehou @jonsindreu Have you considered the possibility that standard economics is wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999286969202016516) 2025-12-12T01:15Z 2975 followers, 1928 engagements "Also about the NVidia sales. I am pretty certain that the Chinese govt will authorize some purchases of NVidia because it looks very bad if Jensen Huang pushes Trump to let China buy NVidia and Trump and Huang end up with nothing. Having China buy say $5-10 billion dollars of" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999296865020576057) 2025-12-12T01:54Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements "it by more than XX% before something goes crazy. This is in contrast to tariffs where you can move things XX% before things go crazy and even then you can turn the dial back. So one question that I have is 1) how much do you want to shift the currency and 2) what is your" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999525508699000919) 2025-12-12T17:03Z 2974 followers, XX engagements "goal. I think if you move currency by XX% you *might* be able reduce Chinese trade surplus by about XX% but that is not going to save the German economy. One problem is that unless you change the Chinese economy the trade surplus is still going to grow and the amount of" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999525511798657158) 2025-12-12T17:03Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@joequant Joequant
Joequant posts on X about china, if you, taiwan, tariffs the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXX +7.80%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +24,556%
Mentions: XX #
- X Week XXX -XX%
- X Month XXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXX +4,661%
Followers: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXX +2.60%
- X Month XXXXX +16%
- X Months XXXXX +1,884%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence
Social category influence countries XXXXX% finance XXXXX% currencies XXXX% stocks XXXX% technology brands XXXX% travel destinations XXXX% celebrities XXXX%
Social topic influence china #3697, if you 6.17%, taiwan #1190, tariffs #1648, countries 2.47%, finance #3305, money 2.47%, rates 1.85%, i dont 1.85%, to the XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bradsetser @leisenfelder @grok @kyleichan @tphuang @adcha91 @brianhioe @iamhere4theads @stevehou @ericfine123 @kahguia @teortaxestex @crowcasey182573 @baldingsworld @jonsindreu @thebaron22 @kitjuckes @rnaudbertrand @masterofnonees @lylejmorris
Top assets mentioned Goldman Sachs (GS)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"And the reason that everyone in East Asia runs a trade surplus is precisely so that they have a huge forex reserve so that they can ignore the IMF"
X Link 2025-12-02T14:24Z 2975 followers, 3717 engagements
"Also someone pointed out what a game changer EV's and solar are to the global south. If you are on an oil infrastructure then you have to keep importing oiland that means that you have to run a trade surplus in order to get the dollars you need to pay for your oil"
X Link 2025-12-07T07:23Z 2975 followers, 1041 engagements
"Actually if you read this sort of nonsense you see why a lot of people on Taiwan that are super-KMT are now more and more favorable to the CCP. PRC and ROC are both CHINA and by trying to split up Chinese people are going into more and more ridiculous stuff"
X Link 2025-12-03T15:20Z 2922 followers, 7066 engagements
"@jacksonhinklle This isn't breaking news. Also she is the head of the Chinese Nationalist Party. And so I find it weird that people are surprised that she is a Chinese nationalist"
X Link 2025-12-06T07:34Z 2924 followers, XXX engagements
"The reason that China is basically not interested in changing the fiscal system to benefit German auto workers is that they have a tough enough job as it is making something work given the political constraints in China"
X Link 2025-12-08T07:47Z 2936 followers, 1819 engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Repeating nonsense doesn't make it true"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:22Z 2934 followers, XX engagements
"@EricFine123 @robin_j_brooks No. Because China has low inflation. Europe has high inflation. China has low interest rates and Europe has to have high ones. That's fixes the value of the RMB"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:23Z 2936 followers, XX engagements
"not GDP should grow at X percent or X percent and they agreed at X percent. Also a lot of stuff is resolved by "lets try it out and see out it works." For example if two different groups have different ideas on how semiconductor develop works you just have two"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:09Z 2934 followers, XXX engagements
"One reason I don't think that the deposits are state deposits is I don't see how this works. So when you pay someone in China USD they keep the USD. So in order for this to become state property they have to pay you CNY but if the PBC prints CNY this shows up in reserves"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:18Z 2936 followers, XXX engagements
"The PBC could loan banks CNY to buy USD but once I start drawing boxes none of this makes sense"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:18Z 2936 followers, XXX engagements
"@Brad_Setser You are missing out US/China exports. Trump has massively reduced the US/China trade deficit"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:27Z 2932 followers, XX engagements
"@Brad_Setser @wsj_douglasj @JonathanEmont This is completely ignoring the fact that Trump has drastically shrunk the US/China trade deficit. Chinese exports to the US have shrunk dramatically because of the Trump tariffs. China is reorienting exports to the rest of the world but that's not something that Trump cares"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:29Z 2933 followers, 1372 engagements
"So one thing that I don't understand is why @Brad_Setser focuses on the total exports that China makes any not just on the US/China trade deficit. One thing about the Trump tariffs is that they have radically reduced the volume of Chinese exports to the United States"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:43Z 2934 followers, XXX engagements
"@Brad_Setser This is true for Vietnam false for Taiwan. The assembly tends to go Taiwan-Mainland. Also China would be more than happy to skip Vietnam and do final assembly in Mississippi or West Virginia"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:45Z 2933 followers, XX engagements
"So one thing that I do object to with @Brad_Setser is that he puts together a big graph showing that China has a massive trade surplus and then concludes that the rest of the world should gang up on China. I don't think this SHOULD happen and I will strongly argue that it"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2936 followers, XXX engagements
"WON'T happen and this becomes more obvious once you separate out the trade by country. Al Jazeera has a nice chart that shows Chinese trade by country"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2934 followers, XX engagements
"One thing that comes up is that how many countries run a trade surplus with China. In particular Australia runs a big trade surplus as do most African countries. So China imports more from DRCongo than it exports. It's that these are resource countries"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2934 followers, XX engagements
"So what China does is to important low value minerals and then transform them into high value manufactured goods. However with those resource countries are running a trade surplus with China"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2934 followers, XX engagements
"Continuing the conversation with @Brad_Setser on Chinese trade. First of all I have to thank AlJazeera for having this very nice table that splits up Chinese trade by nation"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:41Z 2936 followers, XXX engagements
"@Brad_Setser @stevehou @jonsindreu The Chinese currency system is mostly market driven. Also regardless of currency policy Europe is still sunk. So if you adjust currency values then China makes somewhat more expensive EV's but Europe can't make competitive EV's at all. So I don't think that messing with"
X Link 2025-12-12T01:17Z 2974 followers, XXX engagements
"hurting US policy. So right now the debates are the mix of fiscal/monetary policy and the mix of investment/consumption as well as questions like how do we implement a "unified national market." If you really understood what people in China were arguing about"
X Link 2025-12-11T02:59Z 2975 followers, XX engagements
"The interesting thing is that big tech/big finance in the US do exactly that. Elon Musk and Jensen Huang tell the Chinese govt that they would like Beijing to do X so that they make more money and Beijing listens. If you got Elon or Jensen to argue that Beijing should"
X Link 2025-12-11T02:59Z 2975 followers, XX engagements
"increase the value of the CNY people would at least discuss it. However getting an op-ed piece in Bloomberg or FT gets you nothing. Also if you got Goldman-Sachs or JPMorgan to push for RMB appreciation then this would at least get it on the agenda"
X Link 2025-12-11T02:59Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements
"@Brad_Setser @stevehou @jonsindreu Also what is the number So if the CNY was say XX percent stronger we would be looking at a trade surplus of XXX billion rather than X trillion still doesn't help Germany. Getting the trade surplus to zero is just not possible by messing with currency"
X Link 2025-12-12T01:19Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements
"So one important thing about the National Security Strategy is that it has a weird answer to the question "why should the US go to war over Taiwan" The traditional answer is that Taiwan is a GOOD DEMOCRACY and Mainland China is run by EVIL COMMUNIST AUTHORITARIANS"
X Link 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2941 followers, 1226 engagements
"But that's not the rationale for war. The rationale is that the US must defend the first island chain and if Taiwan gets invaded that punches a hole in the defensive line which means that the PLAN can sail to Guam"
X Link 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2940 followers, XXX engagements
"@Brad_Setser Since the exports are solar panels and electric vehicles it's not hyperbole to argue that China may have saved the planet from total environmental destruction. The amount of total human wealth that is generated by giving billions of people mobility and energy is amazing"
X Link 2025-12-06T16:22Z 2941 followers, 1942 engagements
"@Bevin83994661 Nothing new here. The thing is that he says he can't change the name but he has been trying to create an "independent ROC=Taiwan" equation"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:03Z 2942 followers, XX engagements
"@Bevin83994661 No he hasn't. He is trying to go with the two nation theory by which ROC and PRC are separate nations and that ROC=Taiwan. The big thing is if he accepts XX consensus and the idea that ROC is still the constitutional govt of the Mainland things will change but I am not"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:06Z 2942 followers, XX engagements
"@Brad_Setser @GannicusJA So one thing that China did was to unlaterially remove all import tariffs on African goods. Resource-rich countries like DRC or Australia are running trade surpluses with China"
X Link 2025-12-08T00:56Z 2941 followers, XX engagements
"European/Japanese interests over Chinese interests. The thing is that with NSS-2025 it looks like Trump agrees with me more than he agrees with you. What I would like to see is for Trump to go back to Phase X and then invite a ton of Chinese CEO's ready to put Chinese"
X Link 2025-12-08T08:41Z 2942 followers, XXX engagements
"@Luftstalag14 @jukan05 Sure but its too late for that. I suspect the bigger problem is that US AI companies are in trouble and so NVidia needs more cash"
X Link 2025-12-10T04:40Z 2940 followers, XXX engagements
"By contrast good luck if I try to get a security clearance or work for a DC think tank. In fact I try to stay away from that because I am the first person that they will slam if something goes missing. Worth noting that astrophysicists do three things"
X Link 2025-12-11T03:07Z 2940 followers, XXX engagements
"These are limited. Ultimately the big number that influences the value of CNY/USD is the interest rate difference. Because US is lowering interest rates this will cause CNY to go up but this isn't going to help Europe very much as long as Euro interest rates are high"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2935 followers, XX engagements
"H200 gets China a ton of goodwill and political leverage while it is still working on local alternatives. Also if I were Alibaba and Tencent the ideal situation for me would be if I could buy from both NVidia and Huawei so that I can get them to fight with each other"
X Link 2025-12-12T01:54Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements
"@kyleichan @tphuang No not unique. They are publishing their research so that they other models in the Chinese ecosystem can take advantage of it. The thing about DeepSeek is that they don't make money directly from the AI"
X Link 2025-12-03T00:25Z 2960 followers, XXX engagements
"@kyleichan @tphuang In fact none of the Chinese players make money directly from the AI. This means that when someone figures out something new that they want to share the stuff with the other players. So if Alibaba takes DeepSeek stuff and incorporates it into Qwen then both Alibaba and"
X Link 2025-12-03T00:26Z 2959 followers, XXX engagements
"This seems to be an example of people that have no idea what they are talking about. Quantum computing/cryptography is interesting but its not this sort of magic game changer"
X Link 2025-12-03T14:30Z 2947 followers, 3102 engagements
"They you could push the debate in a direction that fits your interests which would be great if you state what your interests are. For example arguing that China should do more fiscal than monetary policy would have the effect of increasing CNY/USD"
X Link 2025-12-11T02:59Z 2942 followers, XX engagements
"Absolutely true. The fact that am in both the American and Chinese networks makes me very hireable in finance and tech and if someone in a big investment bank finds out that I like the Chinese Communist Party they will ask me if I have any contacts that need money managed"
X Link 2025-12-11T03:07Z 2952 followers, 2945 engagements
"Is it just me or are people assuming the IMF is more important than it is. If you are a Latin American countries and the IMF loan sharks tell you to do something then you do it. On the other hand I think that Chinese officials will respond to the IMF by saying"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:17Z 2973 followers, 1898 engagements
"@Brad_Setser It doesn't show that. It shows that someone is buying USD and given that interest rates on USD are higher than CNY thats hardly a surprise"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:28Z 2942 followers, XX engagements
"Or maybe they understand how the exchange rate regime works and you don't. When the PBC fixes the exchange rate they are influenced by market factors. If the fix goes high or low then the PBC will have to either buy and sell reserves to maintain the value. The state banks"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:35Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements
"Are not intervening at the fix but rather forwarding orders from their clients and right now people want dollars because the offshore interest rates are higher than the onshore ones. PBC can move the exchange rates but that would involve hitting foreign exchange reserves"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:35Z 2952 followers, XXX engagements
"Made some comments here but @Brad_Setser just does not understand how Chinese exchange rate system works. The USD/CNY value is NOT an independent policy tool. The Chinese govt does have some flexibility to move USD/CNY (i.e. capital controls and exchange operations) but"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2973 followers, XXX engagements
"Honestly I think that trying to get the PRC to appreciate the CNY significantly is a waste of time. @Brad_Setser is misintepreting the amount of USD in Chinese banks as state intervention when in fact it is the lack of state intervention and most of those holdings are"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2951 followers, XXX engagements
"Non-state. Because they aren't using the state banks to intervene then can't stop doing what they are not doing. One good thing about the IMF trip is that the IMF can raise these issues directly with policy makers in Beijing and ask them directly about these things"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2963 followers, XXX engagements
"@stevehou My explanation is that the CNY is weak and the US dollar is strong because of Chinese capital controls. Put simply you can't use onshore CNY for anything outside of China but with USD you can use that everywhere. If you want to do international trade you use USD and so that"
X Link 2025-12-11T10:12Z 2952 followers, XXX engagements
"@baoshaoshan Yeah so why is it that the RMB is that undervalued and the USD is not overvalued. You can argue that the USD is overvalued by looking at the GDP and median income of West Virginia"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:01Z 2947 followers, XX engagements
"@Brad_Setser The idea that US interests are better served by aligning with Russia and China would seem insane to the Washington crowd but its got a ton of support in big tech and big finance and among American voters. Basically the national security state has nothing to offer voters but"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:55Z 2950 followers, XX engagements
"@Brad_Setser war and economic misery and with Russia about to win in Ukraine big tech big finance and main street are fed up with this nonsense. Trump sees this. Trump is a real estate developer his entire business involved taking cash from rich Russians and Chinese and"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:58Z 2958 followers, XX engagements
"@Brad_Setser If. I dont think that the PBC is linking the CNY to USD. The issue here is that if the Fed cuts rates there isnt much that the PBC can do to weaken the CNY since interest rates are close to zero and inflation is not viable"
X Link 2025-12-11T18:14Z 2952 followers, XXX engagements
"@Brad_Setser @stevehou @jonsindreu Have you considered the possibility that standard economics is wrong"
X Link 2025-12-12T01:15Z 2975 followers, 1928 engagements
"Also about the NVidia sales. I am pretty certain that the Chinese govt will authorize some purchases of NVidia because it looks very bad if Jensen Huang pushes Trump to let China buy NVidia and Trump and Huang end up with nothing. Having China buy say $5-10 billion dollars of"
X Link 2025-12-12T01:54Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements
"it by more than XX% before something goes crazy. This is in contrast to tariffs where you can move things XX% before things go crazy and even then you can turn the dial back. So one question that I have is 1) how much do you want to shift the currency and 2) what is your"
X Link 2025-12-12T17:03Z 2974 followers, XX engagements
"goal. I think if you move currency by XX% you might be able reduce Chinese trade surplus by about XX% but that is not going to save the German economy. One problem is that unless you change the Chinese economy the trade surplus is still going to grow and the amount of"
X Link 2025-12-12T17:03Z 2975 followers, XXX engagements