[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @joequant Joequant Joequant posts on X about china, taiwan, japan, tariffs the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXXX +9.50% - X Months XXXXXXXXX +28,806% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/posts_active)  - X Week XX -XX% - X Month XXX -XX% - X Months XXXXX +5,224% ### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/followers)  - X Week XXXXX +2.30% - X Month XXXXX +15% - X Months XXXXX +2,218% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) XXXXX% [finance](/list/finance) XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies) XXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [china](/topic/china) #3808, [taiwan](/topic/taiwan) #1201, [japan](/topic/japan) 3.29%, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #881, [money](/topic/money) 2.63%, [the first](/topic/the-first) 2.63%, [countries](/topic/countries) #2042, [ai](/topic/ai) 1.97%, [germany](/topic/germany) 1.97%, [if you](/topic/if-you) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@leisenfelder](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@kyleichan](/creator/undefined) [@tphuang](/creator/undefined) [@adcha91](/creator/undefined) [@brianhioe](/creator/undefined) [@iamhere4theads](/creator/undefined) [@ericfine123](/creator/undefined) [@iwelsh](/creator/undefined) [@kahguia](/creator/undefined) [@teortaxestex](/creator/undefined) [@crowcasey182573](/creator/undefined) [@baldingsworld](/creator/undefined) [@domyusoff5311](/creator/undefined) [@talldave7](/creator/undefined) [@thebaron22](/creator/undefined) [@kitjuckes](/creator/undefined) [@kanthan2030](/creator/undefined) [@geoffstooke](/creator/undefined) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "Guam. This isn't going to happen. Anyway the *real* war is (thankfully) not with bullets. The real fight is in Washington between different camps in the bureaucracy and you can see the fights and compromises" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997172422961959085) 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2914 followers, XXX engagements "@kyleichan @tphuang No not unique. They are publishing their research so that they other models in the Chinese ecosystem can take advantage of it. The thing about DeepSeek is that they don't make money directly from the AI" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1996012893582880905) 2025-12-03T00:25Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "@kyleichan @tphuang In fact *none* of the Chinese players make money directly from the AI. This means that when someone figures out something new that they want to share the stuff with the other players. So if Alibaba takes DeepSeek stuff and incorporates it into Qwen then both Alibaba and" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1996013221782954267) 2025-12-03T00:26Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "So one important thing about the National Security Strategy is that it has a weird answer to the question "why should the US go to war over Taiwan" The traditional answer is that Taiwan is a *GOOD DEMOCRACY* and Mainland China is run by *EVIL COMMUNIST AUTHORITARIANS*" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997172417492668544) 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2921 followers, 1225 engagements "But that's not the rationale for war. The rationale is that the US must defend the first island chain and if Taiwan gets invaded that punches a hole in the defensive line which means that the PLAN can sail to Guam" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997172419304493318) 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "But this is super weak. I can imagine the US President going to tell the American public that their sons must die for democracy. I can even imagine him convincing people to die for oil. But convincing people that the US must defend the first island chain and not retreat to" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997172421082993016) 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "@Brad_Setser Since the exports are solar panels and electric vehicles it's not hyperbole to argue that China may have saved the planet from total environmental destruction. The amount of total human wealth that is generated by giving billions of people mobility and energy is amazing" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997340967998030084) 2025-12-06T16:22Z 2921 followers, 1937 engagements "I think someone does not fundamentally understand the US-Japanese relationship. Japan attacked the United States and lost and when you lose a war bad things happen to you. Now the United States has been a "nice master" but it is still the master and if Japan or Germany" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997592434151461012) 2025-12-07T09:02Z 2921 followers, 1182 engagements "@Brad_Setser @GannicusJA I expect this framework to break down in 20-30 years but that's something I leave for my kids to sort out" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997831921917964691) 2025-12-08T00:53Z 2918 followers, XX engagements "@Brad_Setser @GannicusJA So one thing that China did was to unlaterially remove all import tariffs on African goods. Resource-rich countries like DRC or Australia are running trade surpluses with China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997832702201147481) 2025-12-08T00:56Z 2918 followers, XX engagements "the current issues that the Chinese govt faces. So when it comes to social welfare there is no national social welfare system and so you have a messy patchwork of different systems that form something of a safety net" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997935679482056717) 2025-12-08T07:46Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "2) you can move the money out of China. There has been a lot of experimentation over the last few years but I don't think anyone is in a mood for tax increase. So the issue here is to rationalize the social welfare system and just make sure that current benefits are paid" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997935691679023163) 2025-12-08T07:46Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "The reason that China is basically not interested in changing the fiscal system to benefit German auto workers is that they have a tough enough job as it is making something work given the political constraints in China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997935958038298897) 2025-12-08T07:47Z 2921 followers, 1815 engagements "@robin_j_brooks Repeating nonsense doesn't make it true" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998428157763080611) 2025-12-09T16:22Z 2921 followers, XX engagements "@EricFine123 @robin_j_brooks No. Because China has low inflation. Europe has high inflation. China has low interest rates and Europe has to have high ones. That's fixes the value of the RMB" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998428415972827566) 2025-12-09T16:23Z 2921 followers, XX engagements "in China because people have these "big meetings" and then resolve these conflicts before China negotiates. It turns out that for economic stuff a lot of stuff is easy to resolve because they are about numbers. So I remember a few years ago people argued over whether or" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998439805307465859) 2025-12-09T17:09Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "not GDP should grow at X percent or X percent and they agreed at X percent. Also a lot of stuff is resolved by "lets try it out and see out it works." For example if two different groups have different ideas on how semiconductor develop works you just have two" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998439807513669845) 2025-12-09T17:09Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "Also the attitude of the PRC to European threats to increase tariffs is "go ahead and do it." At this point I think that people should assume that the PRC *won't* revalue the currency and go for plan B. I don't know exactly what plan B is and I don't think they do either" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998442238792315333) 2025-12-09T17:18Z 2921 followers, XX engagements "One reason I don't think that the deposits are state deposits is I don't see how this works. So when you pay someone in China USD they keep the USD. So in order for this to become state property they have to pay you CNY but if the PBC prints CNY this shows up in reserves" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998442240981741824) 2025-12-09T17:18Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "The PBC could loan banks CNY to buy USD but once I start drawing boxes none of this makes sense" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998442243020181508) 2025-12-09T17:18Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "@Brad_Setser You are missing out US/China exports. Trump has massively reduced the US/China trade deficit" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998444514827186563) 2025-12-09T17:27Z 2921 followers, XX engagements "So one thing that I don't understand is why @Brad_Setser focuses on the total exports that China makes any not just on the US/China trade deficit. One thing about the Trump tariffs is that they have radically reduced the volume of Chinese exports to the United States" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998448409993425234) 2025-12-09T17:43Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "@Brad_Setser This is true for Vietnam false for Taiwan. The assembly tends to go Taiwan-Mainland. Also China would be more than happy to skip Vietnam and do final assembly in Mississippi or West Virginia" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998448993433727456) 2025-12-09T17:45Z 2921 followers, XX engagements "@Brad_Setser I don't see why this is surprising. Trump doesn't see a trade surplus from China to be worse than one from Japan or Germany. Also China has a ton of cash that it can invest in the US whereas Japan/Germany doesn't" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998462484877865093) 2025-12-09T18:39Z 2921 followers, XX engagements "So one thing that I do object to with @Brad_Setser is that he puts together a big graph showing that China has a massive trade surplus and then concludes that the rest of the world should gang up on China. I don't think this *SHOULD* happen and I will strongly argue that it" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998476320888721605) 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "*WON'T* happen and this becomes more obvious once you separate out the trade by country. Al Jazeera has a nice chart that shows Chinese trade by country" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998476322658803896) 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2921 followers, XX engagements "One thing that comes up is that how many countries run a trade *surplus* with China. In particular Australia runs a big trade surplus as do most African countries. So China imports more from DRCongo than it exports. It's that these are resource countries" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998476324772749655) 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2921 followers, XX engagements "So what China does is to important low value minerals and then transform them into high value manufactured goods. However with those resource countries are running a trade surplus with China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998476326433665264) 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2921 followers, XX engagements "The US has no allies just vassals and eventually the mask comes off. The thing is that this isn't the first time in history this happens. You look at Thucycides and the Peleponessan war and the "allies" of Athens in the Delian League looked pretty much like vassal states" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997569547096989797) 2025-12-07T07:31Z 2921 followers, 2427 engagements "Continuing the conversation with @Brad_Setser on Chinese trade. First of all I have to thank AlJazeera for having this very nice table that splits up Chinese trade by nation" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998478194098450815) 2025-12-09T19:41Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements "@Luftstalag14 @jukan05 Sure but its too late for that. I suspect the bigger problem is that US AI companies are in trouble and so NVidia needs more cash" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998613693786140807) 2025-12-10T04:40Z 2920 followers, XXX engagements "Made some comments here but @Brad_Setser just does not understand how Chinese exchange rate system works. The USD/CNY value is *NOT* an independent policy tool. The Chinese govt does have some flexibility to move USD/CNY (i.e. capital controls and exchange operations) but" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999023959271162009) 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements "Absolutely true. The fact that am in both the American and Chinese networks makes me very hireable in finance and tech and if someone in a big investment bank finds out that I like the Chinese Communist Party they will ask me if I have any contacts that need money managed" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998952750361772381) 2025-12-11T03:07Z 2923 followers, 1919 engagements "By contrast good luck if I try to get a security clearance or work for a DC think tank. In fact I try to stay away from that because I am the first person that they will slam if something goes missing. Worth noting that astrophysicists do three things" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998952752609960440) 2025-12-11T03:07Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements "Is it just me or are people assuming the IMF is more important than it is. If you are a Latin American countries and the IMF loan sharks tell you to do something then you do it. On the other hand I think that Chinese officials will respond to the IMF by saying" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999015583980073133) 2025-12-11T07:17Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements "These are limited. Ultimately the big number that influences the value of CNY/USD is the interest rate difference. Because US is lowering interest rates this will cause CNY to go up but this isn't going to help Europe very much as long as Euro interest rates are high" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999023961041154150) 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2924 followers, XX engagements "This seems to be an example of people that have no idea what they are talking about. Quantum computing/cryptography is interesting but its not this sort of magic game changer" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1996225414507962821) 2025-12-03T14:30Z 2923 followers, 3102 engagements "@jacksonhinklle This isn't breaking news. Also she is the head of the Chinese Nationalist Party. And so I find it weird that people are surprised that she is a Chinese nationalist" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997207966311952753) 2025-12-06T07:34Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements "Honestly I think that trying to get the PRC to appreciate the CNY significantly is a waste of time. @Brad_Setser is misintepreting the amount of USD in Chinese banks as state intervention when in fact it is the *lack* of state intervention and most of those holdings are" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999023964367298718) 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements "Actually if you read this sort of nonsense you see why a lot of people on Taiwan that are super-KMT are now more and more favorable to the CCP. PRC and ROC are both *CHINA* and by trying to split up Chinese people are going into more and more ridiculous stuff" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1996238002448912861) 2025-12-03T15:20Z 2922 followers, 7066 engagements "Also someone pointed out what a game changer EV's and solar are to the global south. If you are on an oil infrastructure then you have to keep importing oiland that means that you have to run a trade surplus in order to get the dollars you need to pay for your oil" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997567713817075795) 2025-12-07T07:23Z 2922 followers, 1038 engagements "And the reason that everyone in East Asia runs a trade surplus is precisely so that they have a huge forex reserve so that they can ignore the IMF" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1995861556517896369) 2025-12-02T14:24Z 2924 followers, 3712 engagements "@Bevin83994661 Nothing new here. The thing is that he says he can't change the name but he has been trying to create an "independent ROC=Taiwan" equation" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997683306796859528) 2025-12-07T15:03Z 2924 followers, XX engagements "@Bevin83994661 No he hasn't. He is trying to go with the two nation theory by which ROC and PRC are separate nations and that ROC=Taiwan. The big thing is if he accepts XX consensus and the idea that ROC is still the constitutional govt of the Mainland things will change but I am not" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997684047242494358) 2025-12-07T15:06Z 2924 followers, XX engagements "I don't see why the US should favor the interests of Germany Japan and the EU over Chinese or Russian interests. You and @RushDoshi seem to believe that the US and Europe should form a collective block to fight China and Russia whereas I don't see why the US should favor" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997949565564305518) 2025-12-08T08:41Z 2924 followers, XX engagements "European/Japanese interests over Chinese interests. The thing is that with NSS-2025 it looks like Trump agrees with me more than he agrees with you. What I would like to see is for Trump to go back to Phase X and then invite a ton of Chinese CEO's ready to put Chinese" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1997949567564960003) 2025-12-08T08:41Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements "@Brad_Setser @wsj_douglasj @JonathanEmont This is completely ignoring the fact that Trump has drastically shrunk the US/China trade deficit. Chinese exports to the US have shrunk dramatically because of the Trump tariffs. China is reorienting exports to the rest of the world but that's not something that Trump cares" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1998444854628753477) 2025-12-09T17:29Z 2923 followers, 1347 engagements "Non-state. Because they aren't using the state banks to intervene then can't stop doing what they are not doing. One good thing about the IMF trip is that the IMF can raise these issues directly with policy makers in Beijing and ask them directly about these things" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1999023967483666438) 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@joequant Joequant
Joequant posts on X about china, taiwan, japan, tariffs the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXX +9.50%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +28,806%
Mentions: XX #
- X Week XX -XX%
- X Month XXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXX +5,224%
Followers: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXX +2.30%
- X Month XXXXX +15%
- X Months XXXXX +2,218%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence
Social category influence countries XXXXX% finance XXXX% currencies XXXX% travel destinations XXXX% technology brands XXXX% stocks XXXX%
Social topic influence china #3808, taiwan #1201, japan 3.29%, tariffs #881, money 2.63%, the first 2.63%, countries #2042, ai 1.97%, germany 1.97%, if you XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bradsetser @leisenfelder @grok @kyleichan @tphuang @adcha91 @brianhioe @iamhere4theads @ericfine123 @iwelsh @kahguia @teortaxestex @crowcasey182573 @baldingsworld @domyusoff5311 @talldave7 @thebaron22 @kitjuckes @kanthan2030 @geoffstooke
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"Guam. This isn't going to happen. Anyway the real war is (thankfully) not with bullets. The real fight is in Washington between different camps in the bureaucracy and you can see the fights and compromises"
X Link 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2914 followers, XXX engagements
"@kyleichan @tphuang No not unique. They are publishing their research so that they other models in the Chinese ecosystem can take advantage of it. The thing about DeepSeek is that they don't make money directly from the AI"
X Link 2025-12-03T00:25Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"@kyleichan @tphuang In fact none of the Chinese players make money directly from the AI. This means that when someone figures out something new that they want to share the stuff with the other players. So if Alibaba takes DeepSeek stuff and incorporates it into Qwen then both Alibaba and"
X Link 2025-12-03T00:26Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"So one important thing about the National Security Strategy is that it has a weird answer to the question "why should the US go to war over Taiwan" The traditional answer is that Taiwan is a GOOD DEMOCRACY and Mainland China is run by EVIL COMMUNIST AUTHORITARIANS"
X Link 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2921 followers, 1225 engagements
"But that's not the rationale for war. The rationale is that the US must defend the first island chain and if Taiwan gets invaded that punches a hole in the defensive line which means that the PLAN can sail to Guam"
X Link 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"But this is super weak. I can imagine the US President going to tell the American public that their sons must die for democracy. I can even imagine him convincing people to die for oil. But convincing people that the US must defend the first island chain and not retreat to"
X Link 2025-12-06T05:13Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"@Brad_Setser Since the exports are solar panels and electric vehicles it's not hyperbole to argue that China may have saved the planet from total environmental destruction. The amount of total human wealth that is generated by giving billions of people mobility and energy is amazing"
X Link 2025-12-06T16:22Z 2921 followers, 1937 engagements
"I think someone does not fundamentally understand the US-Japanese relationship. Japan attacked the United States and lost and when you lose a war bad things happen to you. Now the United States has been a "nice master" but it is still the master and if Japan or Germany"
X Link 2025-12-07T09:02Z 2921 followers, 1182 engagements
"@Brad_Setser @GannicusJA I expect this framework to break down in 20-30 years but that's something I leave for my kids to sort out"
X Link 2025-12-08T00:53Z 2918 followers, XX engagements
"@Brad_Setser @GannicusJA So one thing that China did was to unlaterially remove all import tariffs on African goods. Resource-rich countries like DRC or Australia are running trade surpluses with China"
X Link 2025-12-08T00:56Z 2918 followers, XX engagements
"the current issues that the Chinese govt faces. So when it comes to social welfare there is no national social welfare system and so you have a messy patchwork of different systems that form something of a safety net"
X Link 2025-12-08T07:46Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"2) you can move the money out of China. There has been a lot of experimentation over the last few years but I don't think anyone is in a mood for tax increase. So the issue here is to rationalize the social welfare system and just make sure that current benefits are paid"
X Link 2025-12-08T07:46Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"The reason that China is basically not interested in changing the fiscal system to benefit German auto workers is that they have a tough enough job as it is making something work given the political constraints in China"
X Link 2025-12-08T07:47Z 2921 followers, 1815 engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Repeating nonsense doesn't make it true"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:22Z 2921 followers, XX engagements
"@EricFine123 @robin_j_brooks No. Because China has low inflation. Europe has high inflation. China has low interest rates and Europe has to have high ones. That's fixes the value of the RMB"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:23Z 2921 followers, XX engagements
"in China because people have these "big meetings" and then resolve these conflicts before China negotiates. It turns out that for economic stuff a lot of stuff is easy to resolve because they are about numbers. So I remember a few years ago people argued over whether or"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:09Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"not GDP should grow at X percent or X percent and they agreed at X percent. Also a lot of stuff is resolved by "lets try it out and see out it works." For example if two different groups have different ideas on how semiconductor develop works you just have two"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:09Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"Also the attitude of the PRC to European threats to increase tariffs is "go ahead and do it." At this point I think that people should assume that the PRC won't revalue the currency and go for plan B. I don't know exactly what plan B is and I don't think they do either"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:18Z 2921 followers, XX engagements
"One reason I don't think that the deposits are state deposits is I don't see how this works. So when you pay someone in China USD they keep the USD. So in order for this to become state property they have to pay you CNY but if the PBC prints CNY this shows up in reserves"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:18Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"The PBC could loan banks CNY to buy USD but once I start drawing boxes none of this makes sense"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:18Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"@Brad_Setser You are missing out US/China exports. Trump has massively reduced the US/China trade deficit"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:27Z 2921 followers, XX engagements
"So one thing that I don't understand is why @Brad_Setser focuses on the total exports that China makes any not just on the US/China trade deficit. One thing about the Trump tariffs is that they have radically reduced the volume of Chinese exports to the United States"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:43Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"@Brad_Setser This is true for Vietnam false for Taiwan. The assembly tends to go Taiwan-Mainland. Also China would be more than happy to skip Vietnam and do final assembly in Mississippi or West Virginia"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:45Z 2921 followers, XX engagements
"@Brad_Setser I don't see why this is surprising. Trump doesn't see a trade surplus from China to be worse than one from Japan or Germany. Also China has a ton of cash that it can invest in the US whereas Japan/Germany doesn't"
X Link 2025-12-09T18:39Z 2921 followers, XX engagements
"So one thing that I do object to with @Brad_Setser is that he puts together a big graph showing that China has a massive trade surplus and then concludes that the rest of the world should gang up on China. I don't think this SHOULD happen and I will strongly argue that it"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"WON'T happen and this becomes more obvious once you separate out the trade by country. Al Jazeera has a nice chart that shows Chinese trade by country"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2921 followers, XX engagements
"One thing that comes up is that how many countries run a trade surplus with China. In particular Australia runs a big trade surplus as do most African countries. So China imports more from DRCongo than it exports. It's that these are resource countries"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2921 followers, XX engagements
"So what China does is to important low value minerals and then transform them into high value manufactured goods. However with those resource countries are running a trade surplus with China"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:34Z 2921 followers, XX engagements
"The US has no allies just vassals and eventually the mask comes off. The thing is that this isn't the first time in history this happens. You look at Thucycides and the Peleponessan war and the "allies" of Athens in the Delian League looked pretty much like vassal states"
X Link 2025-12-07T07:31Z 2921 followers, 2427 engagements
"Continuing the conversation with @Brad_Setser on Chinese trade. First of all I have to thank AlJazeera for having this very nice table that splits up Chinese trade by nation"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:41Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements
"@Luftstalag14 @jukan05 Sure but its too late for that. I suspect the bigger problem is that US AI companies are in trouble and so NVidia needs more cash"
X Link 2025-12-10T04:40Z 2920 followers, XXX engagements
"Made some comments here but @Brad_Setser just does not understand how Chinese exchange rate system works. The USD/CNY value is NOT an independent policy tool. The Chinese govt does have some flexibility to move USD/CNY (i.e. capital controls and exchange operations) but"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements
"Absolutely true. The fact that am in both the American and Chinese networks makes me very hireable in finance and tech and if someone in a big investment bank finds out that I like the Chinese Communist Party they will ask me if I have any contacts that need money managed"
X Link 2025-12-11T03:07Z 2923 followers, 1919 engagements
"By contrast good luck if I try to get a security clearance or work for a DC think tank. In fact I try to stay away from that because I am the first person that they will slam if something goes missing. Worth noting that astrophysicists do three things"
X Link 2025-12-11T03:07Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements
"Is it just me or are people assuming the IMF is more important than it is. If you are a Latin American countries and the IMF loan sharks tell you to do something then you do it. On the other hand I think that Chinese officials will respond to the IMF by saying"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:17Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements
"These are limited. Ultimately the big number that influences the value of CNY/USD is the interest rate difference. Because US is lowering interest rates this will cause CNY to go up but this isn't going to help Europe very much as long as Euro interest rates are high"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2924 followers, XX engagements
"This seems to be an example of people that have no idea what they are talking about. Quantum computing/cryptography is interesting but its not this sort of magic game changer"
X Link 2025-12-03T14:30Z 2923 followers, 3102 engagements
"@jacksonhinklle This isn't breaking news. Also she is the head of the Chinese Nationalist Party. And so I find it weird that people are surprised that she is a Chinese nationalist"
X Link 2025-12-06T07:34Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements
"Honestly I think that trying to get the PRC to appreciate the CNY significantly is a waste of time. @Brad_Setser is misintepreting the amount of USD in Chinese banks as state intervention when in fact it is the lack of state intervention and most of those holdings are"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements
"Actually if you read this sort of nonsense you see why a lot of people on Taiwan that are super-KMT are now more and more favorable to the CCP. PRC and ROC are both CHINA and by trying to split up Chinese people are going into more and more ridiculous stuff"
X Link 2025-12-03T15:20Z 2922 followers, 7066 engagements
"Also someone pointed out what a game changer EV's and solar are to the global south. If you are on an oil infrastructure then you have to keep importing oiland that means that you have to run a trade surplus in order to get the dollars you need to pay for your oil"
X Link 2025-12-07T07:23Z 2922 followers, 1038 engagements
"And the reason that everyone in East Asia runs a trade surplus is precisely so that they have a huge forex reserve so that they can ignore the IMF"
X Link 2025-12-02T14:24Z 2924 followers, 3712 engagements
"@Bevin83994661 Nothing new here. The thing is that he says he can't change the name but he has been trying to create an "independent ROC=Taiwan" equation"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:03Z 2924 followers, XX engagements
"@Bevin83994661 No he hasn't. He is trying to go with the two nation theory by which ROC and PRC are separate nations and that ROC=Taiwan. The big thing is if he accepts XX consensus and the idea that ROC is still the constitutional govt of the Mainland things will change but I am not"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:06Z 2924 followers, XX engagements
"I don't see why the US should favor the interests of Germany Japan and the EU over Chinese or Russian interests. You and @RushDoshi seem to believe that the US and Europe should form a collective block to fight China and Russia whereas I don't see why the US should favor"
X Link 2025-12-08T08:41Z 2924 followers, XX engagements
"European/Japanese interests over Chinese interests. The thing is that with NSS-2025 it looks like Trump agrees with me more than he agrees with you. What I would like to see is for Trump to go back to Phase X and then invite a ton of Chinese CEO's ready to put Chinese"
X Link 2025-12-08T08:41Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements
"@Brad_Setser @wsj_douglasj @JonathanEmont This is completely ignoring the fact that Trump has drastically shrunk the US/China trade deficit. Chinese exports to the US have shrunk dramatically because of the Trump tariffs. China is reorienting exports to the rest of the world but that's not something that Trump cares"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:29Z 2923 followers, 1347 engagements
"Non-state. Because they aren't using the state banks to intervene then can't stop doing what they are not doing. One good thing about the IMF trip is that the IMF can raise these issues directly with policy makers in Beijing and ask them directly about these things"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:50Z 2923 followers, XXX engagements