[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @joequant Joseph Wang PHD Joseph Wang PHD posts on X about china, tariffs, money, nauru the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX +818% - X Month XXXXXXX +1,528% ### Mentions: XXX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/posts_active)  - X Week XXX +83% - X Month XXX +508% ### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/followers)  - X Week XXX +114% - X Month XXX +319% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/influence) --- **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) #4163 [finance](/list/finance) #954 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) XXXX% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies) XXXX% [social networks](/list/social-networks) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [china](/topic/china) #202, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #21, [money](/topic/money) 3.08%, [nauru](/topic/nauru) #2, [trade war](/topic/trade-war) #7, [shanghai](/topic/shanghai) 1.96%, [paraguay](/topic/paraguay) #36, [beijing](/topic/beijing) 1.68%, [happened](/topic/happened) #1847, [russia](/topic/russia) #519 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@robinjbrooks](/creator/undefined) [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@glennluk](/creator/undefined) [@gonglei89](/creator/undefined) [@angelicaoung](/creator/undefined) [@rnaudbertrand](/creator/undefined) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/undefined) [@mcklein](/creator/undefined) [@rushdoshi](/creator/undefined) [@teortaxestex](/creator/undefined) [@bonnieglaser](/creator/undefined) [@mikeh19571992](/creator/undefined) [@ruelreyes012](/creator/undefined) [@hamishpricenz](/creator/undefined) [@chefmiew](/creator/undefined) [@gdp1985](/creator/undefined) [@adamtooze](/creator/undefined) [@evanfeigenbaum](/creator/undefined) [@isabellaan67](/creator/undefined) [@adcha91](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Official Trump (TRUMP)](/topic/official-trump) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "I am going to be very rude here since there really isn't any excuse for this sloppy research. After spending a few hours on the internet and finding that Nauru was importing tuna ships I went through the databases and looked at what everyone was importing"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946506980753039845) 2025-07-19 09:46:43 UTC 1077 followers, 71.9K engagements "And the Paraguay - OMG Paraguay. They are importing Chinese tires like crazy and then when I looked at why I got into a rabbit hole. So Brazil puts a lot of tariffs on rubber tires so that means that Paraguay is a center for tires"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946508265824919918) 2025-07-19 09:51:49 UTC 1077 followers, 5455 engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein If you think that China is dependent on the US lets go toe-to-toe. XXX% cutoff in trade. Let's just stop trade and see who blinks first. Oh. We did that"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946107006475247940) 2025-07-18 07:17:21 UTC 1060 followers, XX engagements "@gonglei89 This doesn't make sense. They are printing money so you would expect deflation to decrease"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945758107155759489) 2025-07-17 08:10:57 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@not___a__bot @wmhuo168 The reason its *not* a ban is that holding bitcoin is legal which means they can't take it away from you. So if I had marijuana they could seize that but they can't seize bitcoin. The rules for bitcoin are the same as the rules for foreign currency which makes sense"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946332017496654044) 2025-07-18 22:11:28 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@GlennLuk Also you have the problem that I have. So I have a physics Ph.D. I worked in banking I want to do basic research. Now what It turns out that the standard academic systems just can't handle me. So I just wait for my bitcoin to go up and hang out in academic conferences"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945655741383336149) 2025-07-17 01:24:11 UTC XXX followers, 1494 engagements "@nerdtechgasm @DoggyDog1208 @robin_j_brooks Also the new boats are from Mainland China and from the registries they seem to be replacing previous boats from Taiwan"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946776475740639664) 2025-07-20 03:37:35 UTC 1077 followers, XX engagements "Doesn't make much difference since companies are not interest rate sensitive"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945694293269848369) 2025-07-17 03:57:23 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks One other thing is that the issue for people in China is not so much what the US tariff is but the Chinese countertariff. Trump can set US tariffs at anything as long as China can set countertariffs"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946821215697715599) 2025-07-20 06:35:22 UTC 1077 followers, XX engagements "@adam_tooze @KaiserKuo @gonglei89 The basic problem is that even with the real estate crash it turns out that if you mark the real estate as "places for living rather than investment" then the price is still much too high even in the T1 cities"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946334215181897878) 2025-07-18 22:20:12 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@TheBizCyclist @robin_j_brooks Yup. What is happening is when an exporter has a US customer cancel he goes through the list of people he met at trade shows and emails them to see if they are interested in buying. Chinese manufacturers are just in time and do not warehouse goods. Distributors warehouse"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946429800773816813) 2025-07-19 04:40:02 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@kyleichan One of my pet peeves is that Western analysts often view China has one monolithic unit and they assume that Chinese public tech funding works like Western funding where there is a centralized appropriation from a central pool of money and it doesn't work that way"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945443083744837815) 2025-07-16 11:19:10 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "Argument through repetition. My counterarguments are 1) I am close to Chinese exporters in Shenzhen and that's not happening and 2) if you go down what actually gets exported its obvious that this is not true"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946792180649218530) 2025-07-20 04:40:00 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@EleanorOlcott The other thing that this does is to get a "CEO champion" in the White House. It is in China's interest that NVidia make a ton of money from Chinese trade so he can push pro-China policies to Trump. The previous "China guy" was Elon and well"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945612176531800097) 2025-07-16 22:31:05 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@AngelicaOung So right now your social benefits are tied to your official residence. If you are an official resident of Beijing you get a unemployment insurance pensions etc. etc. The trouble is that if you just move to Beijing you don't get this but you do get free land"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945775659571376173) 2025-07-17 09:20:42 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@IAmArcIvanov @Brad_Setser Maybe but he DOES understand politics. Part of the reason Trump is incoherent is that the US public wants incompatible things"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946436205803147724) 2025-07-19 05:05:29 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@petereharrell For 4) anyone that retaliates is doing to going to get trade nuked. I don't see anyone other than the EU that would be able to withstand the trade war that US put against China and even in the case of China it ended up with very high tariffs"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946790861309927902) 2025-07-20 04:34:45 UTC 1077 followers, XX engagements "@hosseeb There are highly paid lawyers and lobbyists that do read the entire bill. One skill in lobbying is to be able to scan through legislation quickly and figure out which are the critical parts. One thing about legislation is that they are like source code"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946040261681025110) 2025-07-18 02:52:08 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@Brad_Setser Yup but then expect that Trump will do what he did with China and retaliate with XXX percent tariffs on all European goods. The problem here is that if we go full trade war I don't see how the EU can win"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946447140768858276) 2025-07-19 05:48:56 UTC 1004 followers, XX engagements "@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand And for the most part high tech investment in China today *doesn't* work with a pure sillicon valley VC model. There are a lot of differences to make it work in a Chinese environment. Just to name one big difference. There is not a huge IPO market in China"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945748895793111308) 2025-07-17 07:34:21 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein China has massive domestic markets and can withstand a shutdown in US exports. China's vulnerable has to do with food and fuel but that is where Russia comes in"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946103989243916644) 2025-07-18 07:05:22 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements "@robin_j_brooks But the basic idea that Chinese exporters are diverting US shipments to other countries is wrong because 1) I am in HK and I can see that this isn't happening and 2) you can look what China is exporting and the increases are in non-US products"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946782557372285210) 2025-07-20 04:01:45 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "The thing to note is that the fact that people are posting on social media means that its not this totalitarian dystopia where people get shot for complaining. The other thing about social media is that it changes press policy"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946473563722227781) 2025-07-19 07:33:55 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@AngelicaOung I don't get the sense that anyone in Beijing is being moralistic. Part of the issue is that Beijing doesn't want to do an immediate bailout because that encourages local govts to go back to doing what they were before. The issue is that local govts have a huge debt backlog"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945774995453673472) 2025-07-17 09:18:04 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "It's official Trump has just thrown the China haters under the bus. If you are a protectionist you want to the US to screw everyone not-US. If you are a China hater you want the US to be nice to everyone not-China so they will all go after China"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1942301336219050119) 2025-07-07 19:14:59 UTC 1066 followers, XXX engagements "Pretty good talk but its interesting that China isn't in a big hurry to create mega-clusters. The problem is that if you pitch a mega data center to the Politburo their reaction is "oh you just want money for your pet project.""  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795680519094731) 2025-07-20 04:53:54 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@IAmArcIvanov @Brad_Setser Is China going to invade Los Angeles If China starts going after Hawaii or California nuke Shanghai and we all die. China is growing at X% per year it's going to be able to increase its military *no matter what the US does*. Something is going to break"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946456026125086924) 2025-07-19 06:24:14 UTC 1004 followers, XX engagements "@hosseeb The danger of being identified with one camp is shown by what happened with healthcare reform and green energy"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946458149139194198) 2025-07-19 06:32:40 UTC 1008 followers, XX engagements "@robin_j_brooks Okay I've done more digging and this is all wrong. Let me write an article on this"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946506373245935620) 2025-07-19 09:44:18 UTC 1077 followers, 1474 engagements "@IsabellaAn67 Ever hear about "peace through strength" The PRC doesn't give a crap about the islands or the SCS and the PH can have them. The trouble is the Typhoon missiles and military bases that PH is talking about giving the US"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945646888193331515) 2025-07-17 00:49:01 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@Pragmatism6526 @gonglei89 Or even better "we are doing this because we want people to have good jobs and economic growth" and not even think of China at all. The problem is that if you talk about "beating China" then no one cares about development and you all think about ways of bombing Shanghai"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945745228113351031) 2025-07-17 07:19:47 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "One of my pet peeves is that people that look at Chinese tech policy assume that there is a single pool of money and they don't see how decentralized the institutions are. So the consequence of trying to "copy China" means that you end up with something like the Chips Act"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945443648222728590) 2025-07-16 11:21:24 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@GlennLuk that could have made an episode of Dr. Who or Rick and Morty. I just showed up at Westinghouse (they call it something different now) and it was weird having a conversation with basically a XX year old version of me"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945661982226764003) 2025-07-17 01:48:59 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@robin_j_brooks Why are you repeating this nonsense when someone that actually works with Chinese exporters (i.e. me) is telling you that this isn't happening I've gone through the export process and explained why you've got it wrong"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946428780236726587) 2025-07-19 04:35:58 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@TheBizCyclist @robin_j_brooks Also non electronic goods are not perishable. The reason Trump had to immediately reduce tariffs on electronics is that they are perishable and you have to air freight them immediately. For ship stuff it takes a month to ship so the name of the game is to schedule it"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946430741170323812) 2025-07-19 04:43:46 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "Also if Brooks says "wait I've talked to Chinese exporters and they see something different" than I would be *REALLY* interested. Or maybe there is some problem with my analysis of trade. But its kind of frustrating because he is ignoring my arguments"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946793302877225399) 2025-07-20 04:44:27 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "Adding movie clip to point out a problem with translations of Chinese. Chinese does not have definite articles *a* and *the*. In English there is a big difference between saying that you want to be *a* great power or *the* great power"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946463192437383426) 2025-07-19 06:52:43 UTC 1077 followers, 1041 engagements "I try to be polite but part of the reason I am being rude is to get a reaction @robin_j_brooks has this theory about Chinese exporters that is obviously wrong and so I am screaming at him so that he gets annoyed enough to argue that I am full of crap"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946782147819512099) 2025-07-20 04:00:08 UTC 1077 followers, 1069 engagements "@gonglei89 It turns out that Jensen Huang is promoting Chinese national unification. I don't think that this is intentional since he just wants to make money but think of the political implications of having NVidia teams in Shanghai and Taipei working with each other on CUDA and H20"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946349588002267590) 2025-07-18 23:21:17 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@DjehoutimessouA @nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks Actually been done"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946776033887449576) 2025-07-20 03:35:50 UTC 1070 followers, XX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein And you vastly overestimate how important exports are. All of this works out to 2-3 percent GDP which they can make up for with fiscal stimulus. Trump and China played chicken. China is prepared to withstand a full trade embargo and Trump blinked"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946103665842102313) 2025-07-18 07:04:05 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein And Trump has fired anyone that has any clue. These measures absolutely will not work. The more friction you put with anything that involves trade with the US the more countries will decide to trade more with China which is what is happening"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946102334154817790) 2025-07-18 06:58:47 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements "@AngelicaOung I think it is a different situation 1) There is a center / local taxation split and most of the money goes to the local governments. 2) The problem is regional equity. Good if you are Shanghai bad if you are Gansu"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945773411642528148) 2025-07-17 09:11:46 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@thecyrusjanssen It turns out that maglev tech is still in pilot stages because it turns out that the cost of construction isn't worth the extra speed right now. There is a nice test maglev in Shanghai between the airport and the city but they decided that it would better to go HSR for now"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945982632204153024) 2025-07-17 23:03:08 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Yes the US dollar system forces China to do stuff so people are working on fixing that"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946109564543492209) 2025-07-18 07:27:31 UTC 1058 followers, XX engagements "So I just posted me digging down and coming up with research showing that this is *totally wrong*. In fact all of these increases in trade have nothing to do directly with Trump tariffs and they were all things that were in the pipe. But rather than showing"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946513843938906490) 2025-07-19 10:13:59 UTC 1078 followers, 5127 engagements "@TMarino302 @IsabellaAn67 Also in international law once you acknowledge the authority of the panel you are bound by its decisions so CN's position was the panel was illegal"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946499418485924235) 2025-07-19 09:16:40 UTC 1035 followers, XX engagements "@robin_j_brooks Found it Nauru just bought a fleet of Mainland Chinese tuna fishing ships. They had a fleet of Taiwanese built ships but after they changed diplomatic relations I think they may have gotten a gift"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946494782630674604) 2025-07-19 08:58:14 UTC 1077 followers, 1361 engagements "@AngelicaOung @gonglei89 There was a *LOT* of reform that happened in the 2010's. People knew that the real estate bubble was unsustainable so you had to move heaven and earth to set things up so that you have a controlled demolition. Part of this was to set up the law for corporate defaults"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945784870552408541) 2025-07-17 09:57:18 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "Then after googling various combinations of Nauru China imports Nauru China trade I came on this site. And then I saw *WHOA* massive import of fishing ships. That's XX million USD and the next thing is 174k US in plastic housewares"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946808725274316875) 2025-07-20 05:45:44 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "And I learned about the Paraguayian tire industry. At this point my investment bank background kicks in. So why is Paraguay a center for cheap tires"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946809653922607307) 2025-07-20 05:49:26 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@petereharrell Trump has done a good job on preventing retaliation. Basically Trump has made it clear that if you retaliate he is willing to nuke you economically. China is the only country that both can and is willing to retaliate"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946790443171422235) 2025-07-20 04:33:05 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein The idea of "ASEAN transshipment hubs" is a total myth which Trump believes but is not how things work"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946102498328277340) 2025-07-18 06:59:27 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements "@robin_j_brooks You can take a look at is how the different countries respond to cheap Chinese goods. If you have a country that is interested in developing manufacturing (Russia) but for Jordan Jamaica or Paraguay a flood of cheap Chinese goods might not be bad"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946027816480559555) 2025-07-18 02:02:41 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "When they opened the first diagonal crosswalk in Shatin being bored I just visited it and went wild crossing diagonally"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946151306525376717) 2025-07-18 10:13:23 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@Molson_Hart Now that you mention it was Dongfeng okay that is state owned. However the reason it works is that Dongfeng has to compete with private companies like BYD and Xiaomi. So the way that it works for SOE's is that they are state-owned but managed like private companies"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1942797554779054473) 2025-07-09 04:06:47 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "So I am looking at stacks of Chinese made tires and a fast talking salesman and it makes me feel better than talking about weapons and war"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946510972518305932) 2025-07-19 10:02:34 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@robin_j_brooks @justwannasayth2 I found it. Tuna ships. Also this gets me down the rabbit whole of tuna fishing in the Pacific. This also shows the dangers of jumping to conclusions since there is nothing here that suggests anything to do with the trade war"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946495385125707869) 2025-07-19 09:00:38 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "So one thing that is cool about HK is that it is a city-state so you are in the middle of global geopolitics but then sometimes little things make big news. For example that they are going to have more diagonal crosswalks"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946150622497317299) 2025-07-18 10:10:40 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "Now if you translate the rest of the text you quickly figure out that China wants to be *a* global leader. But then if you want to twist the quote then you just leave out that part"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946463966596878423) 2025-07-19 06:55:47 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand This isn't where the tech transfer happened. What happened was that you had people that worked for VC firms that moved back to China and then started their own VC firms. The other thing is that Chinese VC rather differently than Western VC"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945747032687452486) 2025-07-17 07:26:57 UTC 1039 followers, XX engagements "@BarrettYouTube If you are in mainland China and you really want to do crypto it's doable. You come to Hong Kong open an account in HK find a Singapore exchange run a VPN. If you are doing private trading its legal. But they make it intentionally difficult so that not everyone does it"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946442333190545708) 2025-07-19 05:29:50 UTC 1036 followers, XX engagements "Right now you have the World of Snacks. Early next month you have Cat Expo 2025"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946251949550219527) 2025-07-18 16:53:19 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@robin_j_brooks Assuming no Trump surprises. I expect that the numbers will drop sharply in Q3 once as people already moved stuff over. But the idea that Chinese exporters are hurting is just wrong. The issue is that whatever Trump does there is a countermove"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946432594230358145) 2025-07-19 04:51:08 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "I've ended up on Team China rather than Team USA. China is talking about trade and making people rich. So researched what Paraguay is buying from China and ended up with a youtube video of a Paraguayan tire salesman getting business from Brazil"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946510732323090745) 2025-07-19 10:01:37 UTC 1077 followers, 1720 engagements "@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand When you have a VC fund structure it is often an LGFV and then you have a lot of implicit liabilities and lines of control"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945750179648614911) 2025-07-17 07:39:27 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@hendersongus @robin_j_brooks Its not and brooks is talking crap. What is *obvious* once you to through the trade data is that China has been diversifying its exports in expectation of the Trump tariffs. The big export of China to Switzerland and vice versa is gold"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946780457523446195) 2025-07-20 03:53:25 UTC 1063 followers, XX engagements "I was rude toward someone that obvious doesn't understand trade. But speaking of trade if you ever visit Hong Kong go into the website of the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center because there is invariably a trade show going on there"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946250882074775841) 2025-07-18 16:49:04 UTC 1021 followers, XXX engagements "@kyleichan Also this has policy implications. If the job market really is this good then the worries about all of the jobs going to China are probably overblown. But these numbers make no sense to me"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945624926964388316) 2025-07-16 23:21:45 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Also all of the new growing industries in Shenzhen are XXX% tariffed anyway. EV and solar and none of that goes to the US"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946104125852471415) 2025-07-18 07:05:55 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements "@GlennLuk The entire *point* of SOE reform in the 1990's was to make the incentive structure of SOE's similar to private firms. In particular SOE's were set up so that they were incentivized to run at a profit and the role of the state was that of a shareholder"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946487279381598570) 2025-07-19 08:28:26 UTC 1033 followers, XX engagements "@GregHerczeg @GlennLuk That's the thing about China. All generalizations are wrong. (irony intentional). Also I happen to be one of the few people that are part of the Chinese innovation system that's willing to talk"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945656408109961392) 2025-07-17 01:26:50 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@teortaxesTex @GlennLuk I think its pretty healthy. At that point you open source your stuff and then amortize the research costs with everyone else"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945648185369821232) 2025-07-17 00:54:10 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "One thing about NVidia being about to sell chips to China is that the Chinese govt wants foreign companies in China to kick the local companies into shape. This worked beautifully with Tesla and the Chinese govt wants NVidia in China so that Huawei gets a run for its money"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946341501203800512) 2025-07-18 22:49:09 UTC 1077 followers, 8627 engagements "I am pretty shocked at how incompetent the EU is. So it looks like people figured that if they kissed Trump's rear end and said nasty things about China that Trump would give them a pass and it's not worked out that way"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946445514960232757) 2025-07-19 05:42:28 UTC 1077 followers, 1321 engagements "@hosseeb Once you think of legislation as source code then you can go through things pretty quickly. Putting this through an LLM is a *BAD* idea since LLMs are terrible at this sort of stuff"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946040513624445329) 2025-07-18 02:53:08 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@IsabellaAn67 China has stated its arguments under int law. You may disagree with them but you can't argue that they don't exist. The problem is that PH is getting the support from US that doesn't give a damn about int law. Just look at Gaza. Also US has blown up UNCLOS"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946450725682512297) 2025-07-19 06:03:10 UTC 1039 followers, XXX engagements "@RnaudBertrand Jesus really kissing rear end with the neocons"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945751357316792518) 2025-07-17 07:44:08 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "The thing is that China spent *YEARS* preparing for a trade war with Trump. So when it came time China was ready and the US backed down. The thing is that I don't think that the EU is ready if Trump decides to go full embargo and cut off trade with Europe"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946446082399195473) 2025-07-19 05:44:43 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "Well back in the 2010's my view was that the Chinese govt was overly paranoid and that the US didn't have any evil intent against China. Turns out that I was the idiot. I've ended up on the side of Team China is that people in China aren't scheming about the end of the US"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795059128725637) 2025-07-20 04:51:26 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "When you have a theory about something it's worth spending some time digging and finding out if you are right. So I spent an hour digging the data and it looks like Nauru isn't *transshipping* Chinese goods but rather they just bought a fleet of tuna ships"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946497201511002554) 2025-07-19 09:07:51 UTC 1077 followers, 233.6K engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Oooohhh. China factories are too efficient and China has too much cash. Must be on the verge of economic collapse"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946108818989219897) 2025-07-18 07:24:34 UTC 1039 followers, XX engagements "how the US is hurting Chinese exporters and how China is so dependent on the American consumer once you do some research you find the *opposite* that China is the world manufacturing hub and is making tuna fish boats for Nauru LNG tankers for Qatar rubber tires for Paraguay"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946514532786176041) 2025-07-19 10:16:43 UTC 1068 followers, XXX engagements "@hsu_steve The other thing that has to be done is to *stop talking about China*. The trouble with talking about China is that then the focus comes up in "beating China" and the easiest way of doing this is to bomb Shanghai. China is not investing in sci/tech to "beat the US""  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945669068587257917) 2025-07-17 02:17:09 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@IsabellaAn67 Knock off this crap and Beijing won't care about the SCS islands. Also if you think you can get more stuff by moving toward the US then just go ahead and watch the US throw you under the bus"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945647262623043708) 2025-07-17 00:50:30 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@Brad_Setser @gentle_class7 Also one thing that China did before the trade war was to line up other trade partners. The EU made the decision (which was stupid IMHO) to go anti-China in the hopes of getting better concessions from Trump which was never going to work"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946448342021787922) 2025-07-19 05:53:42 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@gonglei89 Just think of what you end up with if you do Mainland manufacturing + HK finance + Taiwan tech My thesis is that the neocons figured this out and are trying to block it. The issue is that the neocons are against any sort of *peaceful unification*"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946350081730638006) 2025-07-18 23:23:15 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "And the so I learned something. This then gets you into the industry of fisheries but that was depressing. So I started going through the other countries"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946809334534726053) 2025-07-20 05:48:09 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@fteconomics Because most companies in China are cash rich they are much less sensitive to interest rates than Western companies. If you want to do stimulus you change the bank reserve rate or do fiscal stuff"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945694175380521183) 2025-07-17 03:56:55 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "Also I've been seeing less "China is taking over the SCS" lately. China really does not care about the PH fishing. They care about PH being a US proxy. If PH really wants to assert SCS rights they should take a trip to Moscow like Vietnam has. Also stop supporting Taiwan"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946347835945062671) 2025-07-18 23:14:20 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@StefanFSchubert @robin_j_brooks @SanderTordoir They bought a fleet of tuna fishing ships from China. Here is one of them"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946496018364973084) 2025-07-19 09:03:09 UTC 1063 followers, XXX engagements "@AngelicaOung @gonglei89 No. It's not bringing local govts back under control. The problem was that the real estate bubble was going to pop one way or another and it's better if you do it yourself rather than have it explode in an uncontrolled way"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945781401716138442) 2025-07-17 09:43:31 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@ruelreyes012 @softwarnet @IsabellaAn67 China has been willing to negotiate and you can see this with China/Vietnam relations. If PH wants a protector then bring in Russia. The issue here is that PH is being used as a proxy by the US but China can negotiate with Trump and PH goes under the bus"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945981269420163362) 2025-07-17 22:57:43 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "My views change when I get new information. Two days ago I didn't know about Nauru fishing boats so this is what I did"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946807843405082899) 2025-07-20 05:42:14 UTC 1077 followers, 3357 engagements "@GlennLuk @gdp1985 This kind of points out one problem with the US. Either something is crisis level or its ignored. Also Pan Gongsheng is not in charge of this He Lifeng is. One big difference between China and the US is that the head of the PBC has nowhere near the power that the Fed does"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945683738769383612) 2025-07-17 03:15:27 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@adam_tooze @KaiserKuo @gonglei89 So what's happened is that local govts last year are putting in money to stabilize the market. The trouble is that you have a frozen market and so when you put in money that helps for a while but then the market unfreezes and prices go down more"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946333931923734573) 2025-07-18 22:19:05 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@teortaxesTex Also since Taiwan has kicked out Huawei I think that having engineers in Beijing Shanghai and Taipei work with each other is one reason that Beijing wants NVidia in the Mainland. Promotes national unification"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946351277019127927) 2025-07-18 23:28:00 UTC 1063 followers, XXX engagements "@not___a__bot @wmhuo168 You are allowed to trade bitcoin but you are not allowed to have a business trading bitcoin. Essentially they are putting bitcoin under the same rules as foreign exchange. You can't use anything other than RMB as payment"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946331657923186911) 2025-07-18 22:10:02 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@GlennLuk Once you've put in the state as a profit-seeking shareholder then the identity of shareholder whether state or private does not matter. The big thing about the SOE reform is that it prevented the widespread looting and govt capture problems in other places"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946487731640828315) 2025-07-19 08:30:13 UTC 1011 followers, XXX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein That makes no sense. The US is already on top and if you blow up the system then there is a good chance that the US will end up shooting itself. Also if your strategy is to blow up the rest of the world I think most people would rather China be in charge"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946113241798906155) 2025-07-18 07:42:08 UTC 1066 followers, XX engagements "@nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks It looks like Nauru is trying to regulate tuna catches (which makes sense because they got burned by phospate)"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946775591778419075) 2025-07-20 03:34:05 UTC 1072 followers, XX engagements "@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks Its not because if you look at the things that are being exported. It's stuff that is consumed in country X"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946813916090372339) 2025-07-20 06:06:22 UTC 1066 followers, XX engagements "@RnaudBertrand Also you have a lot of Chinese working in VC and IB firms in Silicon Valley and Wall Street and maybe learned something. The other thing about VC is that it really isn't that much about skill. It's about networking and then figuring out how to pitch people"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945746207072199126) 2025-07-17 07:23:40 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@robin_j_brooks For Switzerland the main imports are Gold and nitrogen heterocyclic compounds and commodities not otherwise specified. Looks like drug precursors"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946779100737364099) 2025-07-20 03:48:01 UTC 1077 followers, 1195 engagements "@robin_j_brooks Much of the spike is preshipment and in the case of EU the possibility that EU will sharply raise tariffs to get some deal with Trump. If you are an importer it is a no brainer to buy now because you don't know what the numbers are if you wait"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946431904536047765) 2025-07-19 04:48:23 UTC 1078 followers, XXX engagements "@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks Yes. That sums it up. Also I live in HK next to the factories and there are reasons that the scenario he posts won't work"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946811837368123460) 2025-07-20 05:58:06 UTC 1078 followers, XX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein You have a billion Africans lots of Arabs and maybe a billion Indians and that's not counting Latin America. Global south can't settle trade with their own currencies so maybe we just need to redo the world currency system"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946109389364175012) 2025-07-18 07:26:50 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein If the US stops running trade deficits then you don't have a source of dollars to work as the reserve currency. The fact that Trump is going after China over trade deficits just blows up the entire system. If the US insists on balanced trade then China has to adjust"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946111106482831472) 2025-07-18 07:33:39 UTC 1066 followers, XXX engagements "@GlennLuk Or alternatively not put export restrictions on China and kept WTO going. China couldn't limit exports of rare earths before the tariff war because it was against WTO rules. That's why it suddenly became an issue just now"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945760127472324896) 2025-07-17 08:18:59 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Chinese people have a problem in that we don't like to spend money but if it turns out that the nation demands people buy more stuff. People will manage. One thing that is *CRAZY* is how the US thinks that it's gift to the world is that it can consume stuff"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946107496130908611) 2025-07-18 07:19:18 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements "@GlennLuk One thing that is pretty clear to me is that the decision to let Evergrande and Country Garden collapse was specifically so that capital would move out of real estate into tech"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1943553884347371782) 2025-07-11 06:12:10 UTC XXX followers, 1617 engagements "@_kxdyn @qubit____ @BonnieGlaser So lets forget about Trump. Other than Faucci can you name any scientist/engineer that had a prominent position in Biden administration. Or Obama. I think once you get to George W. Bush I might be able to name some people"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945666317639729554) 2025-07-17 02:06:13 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "The Chinese lack of *a* and *the* is part of this funny clip"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946464098155405394) 2025-07-19 06:56:19 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "The fascinating thing is that no one in China gives a crap about AGI. People are interested in AI for immediate practical things like lowering customer support costs"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945347788541419617) 2025-07-16 05:00:30 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@robin_j_brooks Also you get into "post hoc prompter hoc" issues. So non-US Chinese exports increased massively after the Trump tariffs but. That doesn't mean that you would not have had an export bump without Trump"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783112144503166) 2025-07-20 04:03:58 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "So it turns out that *none* of this has to do with transshipment or exporters and it looks like people are just buying more stuff from China"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946509205764297204) 2025-07-19 09:55:33 UTC 1077 followers, 5367 engagements "@robin_j_brooks Now my alternative thesis is that what happened is that Chinese govt and exporters understood that US trade was limited and so diversified their exports to non-US sources"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946782825845538944) 2025-07-20 04:02:49 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@StrategyEmerg @dawn2042 In the case of Qatar the spike in trade numbers is due to LNG ships. It shows that the scenario that Brooks posted of Chinese exporters desperate because of US consumers is wrong"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946774822463357027) 2025-07-20 03:31:01 UTC 1078 followers, XX engagements "@robin_j_brooks Jezzus. Have you looked at the responses where I debunked your nonsense Okay let me pull up the trade figures from Albania and Switzerland"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946777397493461215) 2025-07-20 03:41:15 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@robin_j_brooks I am trying to be polite but you aren't making it easy. Albania imports cars and iron bars from China. The cars are under Trump tariffs as far as iron bars. Albania has a massive scrap plant in Kurum"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946778201604477403) 2025-07-20 03:44:27 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "So the Chinese political system is trying to optimize for maximum social benefit. If it turns out that creating mega-clusters does create AGI then China can do that very quickly but this hasn't been proven and right now China is focusing more on applications of AI"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946795984404795487) 2025-07-20 04:55:07 UTC 1078 followers, XXX engagements "@BarrettYouTube Also the Chinese govt is much more positive toward crypto than you would think. Once you understand what they want then you can figure out how to work with them"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946441821892247908) 2025-07-19 05:27:48 UTC 1064 followers, XX engagements "This is kind of unreal how some people just can't look at things like facts. Once you dig through what countries are importing it is *obvious* that what happened that the Trump tariffs are not having an impact on exporters. In fact the story that seems to be the case"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946779485526974664) 2025-07-20 03:49:33 UTC 1077 followers, 3019 engagements "Just want to get some validation because this chart looks all wrong. If this chart is right then AI is absolutely booming but this doesn't fit in with my experiences trying to get remote work. So would be interested to see whether something is off"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945625988773384522) 2025-07-16 23:25:58 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@robin_j_brooks I can go through everything Trump could possibly do and tell you what the exporters and Chinese govt will do in response because unlike Americans Chinese can think two chess moves ahead"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946433042194530782) 2025-07-19 04:52:54 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "Also the EU is just not set up for a trade war. In the case of China when Trump does X they have a meeting pull out the plans and immediately do Y. With the EU everything requires a committee meeting which means that you get into divide and conquer"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946446540710801429) 2025-07-19 05:46:33 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "Something that I find remarkable about Chinese funding is how decentralized it is. In the US most science and technology funding goes through the Federal govt which means that you end up talking with Congress and it means that there is one location for lobbyists to focus"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945444628154687617) 2025-07-16 11:25:18 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@JimRayn99592544 @gonglei89 Same thing that happen to me during the 2019 HK riots when the news didn't match what I was seeing. Also the idea that the Western media were *active liars* took me a while to accept and it still makes me a little crazy"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946155898877141375) 2025-07-18 10:31:38 UTC 1046 followers, XXX engagements "@RambutanRed @GlennLuk I've seen this graph but my question is how much of the bank credit is going to new economy industrials. My understanding is that banks do not like lending to new economy companies and prefer to lend to SOEs (which is a problem)"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946465917300605357) 2025-07-19 07:03:32 UTC 1031 followers, XX engagements "One thing that people get very wrong about Xi is that when he gives a "big speech" he is summarizing the discussion that has been going on for the previous several months. It *seems* like Xi is barking orders when in fact he is summarizing the consensus"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946092641080484205) 2025-07-18 06:20:16 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements "I am pretty willing to debate this. "Personal experience" convinces me but it might not convince you. So I know Chinese exporters and I know what is going on in SZ. So that convinces me. Now you aren't me so you have to figure out how much to trust me or not"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946792563245261215) 2025-07-20 04:41:31 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@adcha91 @gonglei89 @GlennLuk @gdp1985 Really hard for me to believe but I am willing to be convinced"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945807618259431627) 2025-07-17 11:27:42 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@robin_j_brooks Nope. In the case of Nauru it is a "gift" from Beijing"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946003389558710511) 2025-07-18 00:25:37 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "One thing to notice is that all of those "China is a mess" channels are often based on videos that are posted to Chinese social media. So the typical situation is that 1) something bad happens 2) people complain on social media 3) the bad thing gets fixed"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946473268497752334) 2025-07-19 07:32:45 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@petereharrell I strongly disagree is that if you just use the CPI index and run the tariffs through them the impact on total CPI is a rounding error. One way of illustrating this is to assume tariffs increase doubles the cost of an iPhones. How many iPhones a month do you buy anyway"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946791452916535307) 2025-07-20 04:37:06 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@robin_j_brooks It would make sense for China to increase trade with non-US areas even without Trump. Also once you dig into the numbers you see how the US is losing ground to China when it comes to manufacturing"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783757954117753) 2025-07-20 04:06:32 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@robin_j_brooks I haven't looked at the numbers but my guess is that Palau doesn't have these sorts of numbers"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946003801829490954) 2025-07-18 00:27:16 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "Qatar just bought a new fleet of LNG tankers from China Bulgaria trade is batteries and they just set up a new plant for BYD Hungary is commodites not otherwise specificed and batteries - they have a BYD plant Jordan is importing cars Jamaica is doing steel"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946507825460699306) 2025-07-19 09:50:04 UTC 1077 followers, 5835 engagements "@robin_j_brooks Okay I just did some digging and it appears that in May 2025 someone on Nauru bought fishing ships from China"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946492772514681238) 2025-07-19 08:50:15 UTC 1078 followers, XXX engagements "So I am looking at youtube videos for low low prices in tires in Paraguay and cell phones and then turns out everything is made in China"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946508903568871869) 2025-07-19 09:54:21 UTC 1078 followers, 5108 engagements "@AngelicaOung so if things don't work well in Beijing you move back to Hunan and farm. Now once you get rid of hukou then you have to redo everything"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945775834981343250) 2025-07-17 09:21:24 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@gonglei89 So part of the AI tech embargo is aimed at preventing peaceful Chinese unification. One of the questions I have for @RushDoshi (who is blocking my comments) is when they wrote NSS-2022 and the AI chip limits was "wrecking Mainland/Taiwan cooperation" a goal"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946350848373911997) 2025-07-18 23:26:18 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein I think you are assume that Trump and the US elite is more rational than they are. The problem with weaponizing the dollar is that it just convinces people to move off of the dollar. Not going to happen tomorrow but its going to happen a lot more quickly than you would think"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946117600221741388) 2025-07-18 07:59:27 UTC 1039 followers, XX engagements "So first of all the diagrams are misleading and you see this spike right after 2025 but then the whole diagram is spiky so after going through the databases I found"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946507273284788679) 2025-07-19 09:47:52 UTC 1077 followers, 5393 engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein China is going super into high tech right now. We aren't peasants growing rice. Global trust You are kidding me. Look I try to be polite but people are so *delusional* that it's hard for me to stomach it. You believe what you want and I'll just wait for reality to hit"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946106496619798831) 2025-07-18 07:15:20 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements "Funding in China is incredibly decentralized because you have different funders and govts each with different pools of capital. One reason I think the why the system works is that the people that decide priorities aren't the people that decide funding"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945445406202359898) 2025-07-16 11:28:24 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@robin_j_brooks First of all I don't trust AI to do research. AI gets things wrong. For example I've posted the fishing boat registry. Yes my story does change every day. It's called learning new stuff and changing my views to fit the facts and new information"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946807114623828092) 2025-07-20 05:39:20 UTC 1078 followers, 2623 engagements "So basically Taiwan can have total access to Mainland Chinese markets and keep Taiwan totally closed to Mainland Chinese goods"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1942302175511863748) 2025-07-07 19:18:19 UTC 1066 followers, XXX engagements "@robin_j_brooks If you look at the sectors that China is exporting in and the deals you will see that most of them were set up *before* Trump did his tariffs which means that you would see an export bump without Trump and this makes sense because with all of the talk about decoupling"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946783456039784946) 2025-07-20 04:05:20 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "HAHAHAHAHA. Funny to have someone argue that you don't exist. He is arguing that China can't surpass the US because somehow the US has this monopoly on creativity and dynamism. (i.e. people like me don't exist in China)"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946798678578249750) 2025-07-20 05:05:49 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements "@JimRayn99592544 @gonglei89 Also the lies have gotten *worse* since the end of COVID. So during COVID I didn't cross the border and things were kind of slow after so when people said the situation was X I could have still believed it but now I've visited so many times that the mismatch is crazy"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946156499430232270) 2025-07-18 10:34:01 UTC 1047 followers, XX engagements "@nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks Yeah and I found that out independently looking at the trade data. Once you look at Nauru's trade then you find that the imports were fishing vessels and then I did some googling to find the registration of the vessels. Also got myself into the politics of fisheries"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946775357849501981) 2025-07-20 03:33:09 UTC 1070 followers, XX engagements "@GlennLuk But then you get into the question of "shifting resources." So in the US basic research is largely funded by the Federal Government through NSF and NIH so everything goes through the annual budget. That's *NOT* how things work in China"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1945654539354513637) 2025-07-17 01:19:25 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@SomethingOnSnow And the fact that China might respond to all of the talk of the US decoupling by developing other markets has never occurred to people"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946794108581986501) 2025-07-20 04:47:39 UTC 1077 followers, XX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein The US borrow money from China then buys stuff and thinks that they are doing China a favor. But if your only function is to consume stuff you are easy to replace. Instead of lending money to Americans to buy Chinese stuff China can replace Americans with Arabs and Africans"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946107886222070270) 2025-07-18 07:20:51 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements "@GlennLuk Well the US had an early tech lead in everything and also blew it. My theory on all this is that because Japan choose to keep its financial system the way it was in the 1990's that it was never able to mobilize new capital for developmental research"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1943553496453911008) 2025-07-11 06:10:37 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Also you forget one big thing. The US is *unwilling* to run trade deficits with China. So the system is over. Trump wants the US to stop running trade deficits at which point the *whole freaking system falls apart*. People in China are working on the new system"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946110277067608401) 2025-07-18 07:30:21 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements "@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein The problem is that the people that are making policy are so completely detached from reality that I don't even know where to begin and if I wasn't an American I wouldn't even try"  [@joequant](/creator/x/joequant) on [X](/post/tweet/1946103004823961644) 2025-07-18 07:01:27 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@joequant Joseph Wang PHD
Joseph Wang PHD posts on X about china, tariffs, money, nauru the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +818%
- X Month XXXXXXX +1,528%
Mentions: XXX #
- X Week XXX +83%
- X Month XXX +508%
Followers: XXXXX #
- X Week XXX +114%
- X Month XXX +319%
CreatorRank: XXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence countries #4163 finance #954 travel destinations XXX% technology brands XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% stocks XXXX% automotive brands XXXX% celebrities XXXX% currencies XXXX% social networks XXXX%
Social topic influence china #202, tariffs #21, money 3.08%, nauru #2, trade war #7, shanghai 1.96%, paraguay #36, beijing 1.68%, happened #1847, russia #519
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @robinjbrooks @bradsetser @glennluk @gonglei89 @angelicaoung @rnaudbertrand @onechancefreedm @mcklein @rushdoshi @teortaxestex @bonnieglaser @mikeh19571992 @ruelreyes012 @hamishpricenz @chefmiew @gdp1985 @adamtooze @evanfeigenbaum @isabellaan67 @adcha91
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Official Trump (TRUMP) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"I am going to be very rude here since there really isn't any excuse for this sloppy research. After spending a few hours on the internet and finding that Nauru was importing tuna ships I went through the databases and looked at what everyone was importing"
@joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:46:43 UTC 1077 followers, 71.9K engagements
"And the Paraguay - OMG Paraguay. They are importing Chinese tires like crazy and then when I looked at why I got into a rabbit hole. So Brazil puts a lot of tariffs on rubber tires so that means that Paraguay is a center for tires" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:51:49 UTC 1077 followers, 5455 engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein If you think that China is dependent on the US lets go toe-to-toe. XXX% cutoff in trade. Let's just stop trade and see who blinks first. Oh. We did that" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:17:21 UTC 1060 followers, XX engagements
"@gonglei89 This doesn't make sense. They are printing money so you would expect deflation to decrease" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 08:10:57 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@not___a__bot @wmhuo168 The reason its not a ban is that holding bitcoin is legal which means they can't take it away from you. So if I had marijuana they could seize that but they can't seize bitcoin. The rules for bitcoin are the same as the rules for foreign currency which makes sense" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 22:11:28 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@GlennLuk Also you have the problem that I have. So I have a physics Ph.D. I worked in banking I want to do basic research. Now what It turns out that the standard academic systems just can't handle me. So I just wait for my bitcoin to go up and hang out in academic conferences" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 01:24:11 UTC XXX followers, 1494 engagements
"@nerdtechgasm @DoggyDog1208 @robin_j_brooks Also the new boats are from Mainland China and from the registries they seem to be replacing previous boats from Taiwan" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 03:37:35 UTC 1077 followers, XX engagements
"Doesn't make much difference since companies are not interest rate sensitive" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 03:57:23 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks One other thing is that the issue for people in China is not so much what the US tariff is but the Chinese countertariff. Trump can set US tariffs at anything as long as China can set countertariffs" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 06:35:22 UTC 1077 followers, XX engagements
"@adam_tooze @KaiserKuo @gonglei89 The basic problem is that even with the real estate crash it turns out that if you mark the real estate as "places for living rather than investment" then the price is still much too high even in the T1 cities" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 22:20:12 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@TheBizCyclist @robin_j_brooks Yup. What is happening is when an exporter has a US customer cancel he goes through the list of people he met at trade shows and emails them to see if they are interested in buying. Chinese manufacturers are just in time and do not warehouse goods. Distributors warehouse" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 04:40:02 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@kyleichan One of my pet peeves is that Western analysts often view China has one monolithic unit and they assume that Chinese public tech funding works like Western funding where there is a centralized appropriation from a central pool of money and it doesn't work that way" @joequant on X 2025-07-16 11:19:10 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Argument through repetition. My counterarguments are 1) I am close to Chinese exporters in Shenzhen and that's not happening and 2) if you go down what actually gets exported its obvious that this is not true" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:40:00 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@EleanorOlcott The other thing that this does is to get a "CEO champion" in the White House. It is in China's interest that NVidia make a ton of money from Chinese trade so he can push pro-China policies to Trump. The previous "China guy" was Elon and well" @joequant on X 2025-07-16 22:31:05 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@AngelicaOung So right now your social benefits are tied to your official residence. If you are an official resident of Beijing you get a unemployment insurance pensions etc. etc. The trouble is that if you just move to Beijing you don't get this but you do get free land" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 09:20:42 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@IAmArcIvanov @Brad_Setser Maybe but he DOES understand politics. Part of the reason Trump is incoherent is that the US public wants incompatible things" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 05:05:29 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@petereharrell For 4) anyone that retaliates is doing to going to get trade nuked. I don't see anyone other than the EU that would be able to withstand the trade war that US put against China and even in the case of China it ended up with very high tariffs" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:34:45 UTC 1077 followers, XX engagements
"@hosseeb There are highly paid lawyers and lobbyists that do read the entire bill. One skill in lobbying is to be able to scan through legislation quickly and figure out which are the critical parts. One thing about legislation is that they are like source code" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 02:52:08 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@Brad_Setser Yup but then expect that Trump will do what he did with China and retaliate with XXX percent tariffs on all European goods. The problem here is that if we go full trade war I don't see how the EU can win" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 05:48:56 UTC 1004 followers, XX engagements
"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand And for the most part high tech investment in China today doesn't work with a pure sillicon valley VC model. There are a lot of differences to make it work in a Chinese environment. Just to name one big difference. There is not a huge IPO market in China" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 07:34:21 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein China has massive domestic markets and can withstand a shutdown in US exports. China's vulnerable has to do with food and fuel but that is where Russia comes in" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:05:22 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks But the basic idea that Chinese exporters are diverting US shipments to other countries is wrong because 1) I am in HK and I can see that this isn't happening and 2) you can look what China is exporting and the increases are in non-US products" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:01:45 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"The thing to note is that the fact that people are posting on social media means that its not this totalitarian dystopia where people get shot for complaining. The other thing about social media is that it changes press policy" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 07:33:55 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@AngelicaOung I don't get the sense that anyone in Beijing is being moralistic. Part of the issue is that Beijing doesn't want to do an immediate bailout because that encourages local govts to go back to doing what they were before. The issue is that local govts have a huge debt backlog" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 09:18:04 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"It's official Trump has just thrown the China haters under the bus. If you are a protectionist you want to the US to screw everyone not-US. If you are a China hater you want the US to be nice to everyone not-China so they will all go after China" @joequant on X 2025-07-07 19:14:59 UTC 1066 followers, XXX engagements
"Pretty good talk but its interesting that China isn't in a big hurry to create mega-clusters. The problem is that if you pitch a mega data center to the Politburo their reaction is "oh you just want money for your pet project."" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:53:54 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@IAmArcIvanov @Brad_Setser Is China going to invade Los Angeles If China starts going after Hawaii or California nuke Shanghai and we all die. China is growing at X% per year it's going to be able to increase its military no matter what the US does. Something is going to break" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 06:24:14 UTC 1004 followers, XX engagements
"@hosseeb The danger of being identified with one camp is shown by what happened with healthcare reform and green energy" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 06:32:40 UTC 1008 followers, XX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Okay I've done more digging and this is all wrong. Let me write an article on this" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:44:18 UTC 1077 followers, 1474 engagements
"@IsabellaAn67 Ever hear about "peace through strength" The PRC doesn't give a crap about the islands or the SCS and the PH can have them. The trouble is the Typhoon missiles and military bases that PH is talking about giving the US" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 00:49:01 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@Pragmatism6526 @gonglei89 Or even better "we are doing this because we want people to have good jobs and economic growth" and not even think of China at all. The problem is that if you talk about "beating China" then no one cares about development and you all think about ways of bombing Shanghai" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 07:19:47 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"One of my pet peeves is that people that look at Chinese tech policy assume that there is a single pool of money and they don't see how decentralized the institutions are. So the consequence of trying to "copy China" means that you end up with something like the Chips Act" @joequant on X 2025-07-16 11:21:24 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@GlennLuk that could have made an episode of Dr. Who or Rick and Morty. I just showed up at Westinghouse (they call it something different now) and it was weird having a conversation with basically a XX year old version of me" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 01:48:59 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Why are you repeating this nonsense when someone that actually works with Chinese exporters (i.e. me) is telling you that this isn't happening I've gone through the export process and explained why you've got it wrong" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 04:35:58 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@TheBizCyclist @robin_j_brooks Also non electronic goods are not perishable. The reason Trump had to immediately reduce tariffs on electronics is that they are perishable and you have to air freight them immediately. For ship stuff it takes a month to ship so the name of the game is to schedule it" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 04:43:46 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"Also if Brooks says "wait I've talked to Chinese exporters and they see something different" than I would be REALLY interested. Or maybe there is some problem with my analysis of trade. But its kind of frustrating because he is ignoring my arguments" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:44:27 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"Adding movie clip to point out a problem with translations of Chinese. Chinese does not have definite articles a and the. In English there is a big difference between saying that you want to be a great power or the great power" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 06:52:43 UTC 1077 followers, 1041 engagements
"I try to be polite but part of the reason I am being rude is to get a reaction @robin_j_brooks has this theory about Chinese exporters that is obviously wrong and so I am screaming at him so that he gets annoyed enough to argue that I am full of crap" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:00:08 UTC 1077 followers, 1069 engagements
"@gonglei89 It turns out that Jensen Huang is promoting Chinese national unification. I don't think that this is intentional since he just wants to make money but think of the political implications of having NVidia teams in Shanghai and Taipei working with each other on CUDA and H20" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 23:21:17 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@DjehoutimessouA @nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks Actually been done" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 03:35:50 UTC 1070 followers, XX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein And you vastly overestimate how important exports are. All of this works out to 2-3 percent GDP which they can make up for with fiscal stimulus. Trump and China played chicken. China is prepared to withstand a full trade embargo and Trump blinked" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:04:05 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein And Trump has fired anyone that has any clue. These measures absolutely will not work. The more friction you put with anything that involves trade with the US the more countries will decide to trade more with China which is what is happening" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 06:58:47 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements
"@AngelicaOung I think it is a different situation 1) There is a center / local taxation split and most of the money goes to the local governments. 2) The problem is regional equity. Good if you are Shanghai bad if you are Gansu" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 09:11:46 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@thecyrusjanssen It turns out that maglev tech is still in pilot stages because it turns out that the cost of construction isn't worth the extra speed right now. There is a nice test maglev in Shanghai between the airport and the city but they decided that it would better to go HSR for now" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 23:03:08 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Yes the US dollar system forces China to do stuff so people are working on fixing that" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:27:31 UTC 1058 followers, XX engagements
"So I just posted me digging down and coming up with research showing that this is totally wrong. In fact all of these increases in trade have nothing to do directly with Trump tariffs and they were all things that were in the pipe. But rather than showing" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 10:13:59 UTC 1078 followers, 5127 engagements
"@TMarino302 @IsabellaAn67 Also in international law once you acknowledge the authority of the panel you are bound by its decisions so CN's position was the panel was illegal" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:16:40 UTC 1035 followers, XX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Found it Nauru just bought a fleet of Mainland Chinese tuna fishing ships. They had a fleet of Taiwanese built ships but after they changed diplomatic relations I think they may have gotten a gift" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 08:58:14 UTC 1077 followers, 1361 engagements
"@AngelicaOung @gonglei89 There was a LOT of reform that happened in the 2010's. People knew that the real estate bubble was unsustainable so you had to move heaven and earth to set things up so that you have a controlled demolition. Part of this was to set up the law for corporate defaults" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 09:57:18 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Then after googling various combinations of Nauru China imports Nauru China trade I came on this site. And then I saw WHOA massive import of fishing ships. That's XX million USD and the next thing is 174k US in plastic housewares" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 05:45:44 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"And I learned about the Paraguayian tire industry. At this point my investment bank background kicks in. So why is Paraguay a center for cheap tires" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 05:49:26 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@petereharrell Trump has done a good job on preventing retaliation. Basically Trump has made it clear that if you retaliate he is willing to nuke you economically. China is the only country that both can and is willing to retaliate" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:33:05 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein The idea of "ASEAN transshipment hubs" is a total myth which Trump believes but is not how things work" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 06:59:27 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks You can take a look at is how the different countries respond to cheap Chinese goods. If you have a country that is interested in developing manufacturing (Russia) but for Jordan Jamaica or Paraguay a flood of cheap Chinese goods might not be bad" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 02:02:41 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"When they opened the first diagonal crosswalk in Shatin being bored I just visited it and went wild crossing diagonally" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 10:13:23 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@Molson_Hart Now that you mention it was Dongfeng okay that is state owned. However the reason it works is that Dongfeng has to compete with private companies like BYD and Xiaomi. So the way that it works for SOE's is that they are state-owned but managed like private companies" @joequant on X 2025-07-09 04:06:47 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"So I am looking at stacks of Chinese made tires and a fast talking salesman and it makes me feel better than talking about weapons and war" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 10:02:34 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks @justwannasayth2 I found it. Tuna ships. Also this gets me down the rabbit whole of tuna fishing in the Pacific. This also shows the dangers of jumping to conclusions since there is nothing here that suggests anything to do with the trade war" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:00:38 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"So one thing that is cool about HK is that it is a city-state so you are in the middle of global geopolitics but then sometimes little things make big news. For example that they are going to have more diagonal crosswalks" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 10:10:40 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Now if you translate the rest of the text you quickly figure out that China wants to be a global leader. But then if you want to twist the quote then you just leave out that part" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 06:55:47 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand This isn't where the tech transfer happened. What happened was that you had people that worked for VC firms that moved back to China and then started their own VC firms. The other thing is that Chinese VC rather differently than Western VC" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 07:26:57 UTC 1039 followers, XX engagements
"@BarrettYouTube If you are in mainland China and you really want to do crypto it's doable. You come to Hong Kong open an account in HK find a Singapore exchange run a VPN. If you are doing private trading its legal. But they make it intentionally difficult so that not everyone does it" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 05:29:50 UTC 1036 followers, XX engagements
"Right now you have the World of Snacks. Early next month you have Cat Expo 2025" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 16:53:19 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Assuming no Trump surprises. I expect that the numbers will drop sharply in Q3 once as people already moved stuff over. But the idea that Chinese exporters are hurting is just wrong. The issue is that whatever Trump does there is a countermove" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 04:51:08 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"I've ended up on Team China rather than Team USA. China is talking about trade and making people rich. So researched what Paraguay is buying from China and ended up with a youtube video of a Paraguayan tire salesman getting business from Brazil" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 10:01:37 UTC 1077 followers, 1720 engagements
"@LaniRefiti @RnaudBertrand When you have a VC fund structure it is often an LGFV and then you have a lot of implicit liabilities and lines of control" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 07:39:27 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@hendersongus @robin_j_brooks Its not and brooks is talking crap. What is obvious once you to through the trade data is that China has been diversifying its exports in expectation of the Trump tariffs. The big export of China to Switzerland and vice versa is gold" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 03:53:25 UTC 1063 followers, XX engagements
"I was rude toward someone that obvious doesn't understand trade. But speaking of trade if you ever visit Hong Kong go into the website of the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center because there is invariably a trade show going on there" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 16:49:04 UTC 1021 followers, XXX engagements
"@kyleichan Also this has policy implications. If the job market really is this good then the worries about all of the jobs going to China are probably overblown. But these numbers make no sense to me" @joequant on X 2025-07-16 23:21:45 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Also all of the new growing industries in Shenzhen are XXX% tariffed anyway. EV and solar and none of that goes to the US" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:05:55 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements
"@GlennLuk The entire point of SOE reform in the 1990's was to make the incentive structure of SOE's similar to private firms. In particular SOE's were set up so that they were incentivized to run at a profit and the role of the state was that of a shareholder" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 08:28:26 UTC 1033 followers, XX engagements
"@GregHerczeg @GlennLuk That's the thing about China. All generalizations are wrong. (irony intentional). Also I happen to be one of the few people that are part of the Chinese innovation system that's willing to talk" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 01:26:50 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@teortaxesTex @GlennLuk I think its pretty healthy. At that point you open source your stuff and then amortize the research costs with everyone else" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 00:54:10 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"One thing about NVidia being about to sell chips to China is that the Chinese govt wants foreign companies in China to kick the local companies into shape. This worked beautifully with Tesla and the Chinese govt wants NVidia in China so that Huawei gets a run for its money" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 22:49:09 UTC 1077 followers, 8627 engagements
"I am pretty shocked at how incompetent the EU is. So it looks like people figured that if they kissed Trump's rear end and said nasty things about China that Trump would give them a pass and it's not worked out that way" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 05:42:28 UTC 1077 followers, 1321 engagements
"@hosseeb Once you think of legislation as source code then you can go through things pretty quickly. Putting this through an LLM is a BAD idea since LLMs are terrible at this sort of stuff" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 02:53:08 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@IsabellaAn67 China has stated its arguments under int law. You may disagree with them but you can't argue that they don't exist. The problem is that PH is getting the support from US that doesn't give a damn about int law. Just look at Gaza. Also US has blown up UNCLOS" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 06:03:10 UTC 1039 followers, XXX engagements
"@RnaudBertrand Jesus really kissing rear end with the neocons" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 07:44:08 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"The thing is that China spent YEARS preparing for a trade war with Trump. So when it came time China was ready and the US backed down. The thing is that I don't think that the EU is ready if Trump decides to go full embargo and cut off trade with Europe" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 05:44:43 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"Well back in the 2010's my view was that the Chinese govt was overly paranoid and that the US didn't have any evil intent against China. Turns out that I was the idiot. I've ended up on the side of Team China is that people in China aren't scheming about the end of the US" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:51:26 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"When you have a theory about something it's worth spending some time digging and finding out if you are right. So I spent an hour digging the data and it looks like Nauru isn't transshipping Chinese goods but rather they just bought a fleet of tuna ships" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:07:51 UTC 1077 followers, 233.6K engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Oooohhh. China factories are too efficient and China has too much cash. Must be on the verge of economic collapse" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:24:34 UTC 1039 followers, XX engagements
"how the US is hurting Chinese exporters and how China is so dependent on the American consumer once you do some research you find the opposite that China is the world manufacturing hub and is making tuna fish boats for Nauru LNG tankers for Qatar rubber tires for Paraguay" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 10:16:43 UTC 1068 followers, XXX engagements
"@hsu_steve The other thing that has to be done is to stop talking about China. The trouble with talking about China is that then the focus comes up in "beating China" and the easiest way of doing this is to bomb Shanghai. China is not investing in sci/tech to "beat the US"" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 02:17:09 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@IsabellaAn67 Knock off this crap and Beijing won't care about the SCS islands. Also if you think you can get more stuff by moving toward the US then just go ahead and watch the US throw you under the bus" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 00:50:30 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@Brad_Setser @gentle_class7 Also one thing that China did before the trade war was to line up other trade partners. The EU made the decision (which was stupid IMHO) to go anti-China in the hopes of getting better concessions from Trump which was never going to work" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 05:53:42 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@gonglei89 Just think of what you end up with if you do Mainland manufacturing + HK finance + Taiwan tech My thesis is that the neocons figured this out and are trying to block it. The issue is that the neocons are against any sort of peaceful unification" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 23:23:15 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"And the so I learned something. This then gets you into the industry of fisheries but that was depressing. So I started going through the other countries" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 05:48:09 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@fteconomics Because most companies in China are cash rich they are much less sensitive to interest rates than Western companies. If you want to do stimulus you change the bank reserve rate or do fiscal stuff" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 03:56:55 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Also I've been seeing less "China is taking over the SCS" lately. China really does not care about the PH fishing. They care about PH being a US proxy. If PH really wants to assert SCS rights they should take a trip to Moscow like Vietnam has. Also stop supporting Taiwan" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 23:14:20 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@StefanFSchubert @robin_j_brooks @SanderTordoir They bought a fleet of tuna fishing ships from China. Here is one of them" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:03:09 UTC 1063 followers, XXX engagements
"@AngelicaOung @gonglei89 No. It's not bringing local govts back under control. The problem was that the real estate bubble was going to pop one way or another and it's better if you do it yourself rather than have it explode in an uncontrolled way" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 09:43:31 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@ruelreyes012 @softwarnet @IsabellaAn67 China has been willing to negotiate and you can see this with China/Vietnam relations. If PH wants a protector then bring in Russia. The issue here is that PH is being used as a proxy by the US but China can negotiate with Trump and PH goes under the bus" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 22:57:43 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"My views change when I get new information. Two days ago I didn't know about Nauru fishing boats so this is what I did" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 05:42:14 UTC 1077 followers, 3357 engagements
"@GlennLuk @gdp1985 This kind of points out one problem with the US. Either something is crisis level or its ignored. Also Pan Gongsheng is not in charge of this He Lifeng is. One big difference between China and the US is that the head of the PBC has nowhere near the power that the Fed does" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 03:15:27 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@adam_tooze @KaiserKuo @gonglei89 So what's happened is that local govts last year are putting in money to stabilize the market. The trouble is that you have a frozen market and so when you put in money that helps for a while but then the market unfreezes and prices go down more" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 22:19:05 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@teortaxesTex Also since Taiwan has kicked out Huawei I think that having engineers in Beijing Shanghai and Taipei work with each other is one reason that Beijing wants NVidia in the Mainland. Promotes national unification" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 23:28:00 UTC 1063 followers, XXX engagements
"@not___a__bot @wmhuo168 You are allowed to trade bitcoin but you are not allowed to have a business trading bitcoin. Essentially they are putting bitcoin under the same rules as foreign exchange. You can't use anything other than RMB as payment" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 22:10:02 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@GlennLuk Once you've put in the state as a profit-seeking shareholder then the identity of shareholder whether state or private does not matter. The big thing about the SOE reform is that it prevented the widespread looting and govt capture problems in other places" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 08:30:13 UTC 1011 followers, XXX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein That makes no sense. The US is already on top and if you blow up the system then there is a good chance that the US will end up shooting itself. Also if your strategy is to blow up the rest of the world I think most people would rather China be in charge" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:42:08 UTC 1066 followers, XX engagements
"@nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks It looks like Nauru is trying to regulate tuna catches (which makes sense because they got burned by phospate)" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 03:34:05 UTC 1072 followers, XX engagements
"@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks Its not because if you look at the things that are being exported. It's stuff that is consumed in country X" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 06:06:22 UTC 1066 followers, XX engagements
"@RnaudBertrand Also you have a lot of Chinese working in VC and IB firms in Silicon Valley and Wall Street and maybe learned something. The other thing about VC is that it really isn't that much about skill. It's about networking and then figuring out how to pitch people" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 07:23:40 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks For Switzerland the main imports are Gold and nitrogen heterocyclic compounds and commodities not otherwise specified. Looks like drug precursors" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 03:48:01 UTC 1077 followers, 1195 engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Much of the spike is preshipment and in the case of EU the possibility that EU will sharply raise tariffs to get some deal with Trump. If you are an importer it is a no brainer to buy now because you don't know what the numbers are if you wait" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 04:48:23 UTC 1078 followers, XXX engagements
"@ChefMiew @robin_j_brooks Yes. That sums it up. Also I live in HK next to the factories and there are reasons that the scenario he posts won't work" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 05:58:06 UTC 1078 followers, XX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein You have a billion Africans lots of Arabs and maybe a billion Indians and that's not counting Latin America. Global south can't settle trade with their own currencies so maybe we just need to redo the world currency system" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:26:50 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein If the US stops running trade deficits then you don't have a source of dollars to work as the reserve currency. The fact that Trump is going after China over trade deficits just blows up the entire system. If the US insists on balanced trade then China has to adjust" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:33:39 UTC 1066 followers, XXX engagements
"@GlennLuk Or alternatively not put export restrictions on China and kept WTO going. China couldn't limit exports of rare earths before the tariff war because it was against WTO rules. That's why it suddenly became an issue just now" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 08:18:59 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Chinese people have a problem in that we don't like to spend money but if it turns out that the nation demands people buy more stuff. People will manage. One thing that is CRAZY is how the US thinks that it's gift to the world is that it can consume stuff" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:19:18 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements
"@GlennLuk One thing that is pretty clear to me is that the decision to let Evergrande and Country Garden collapse was specifically so that capital would move out of real estate into tech" @joequant on X 2025-07-11 06:12:10 UTC XXX followers, 1617 engagements
"@kxdyn @qubit___ @BonnieGlaser So lets forget about Trump. Other than Faucci can you name any scientist/engineer that had a prominent position in Biden administration. Or Obama. I think once you get to George W. Bush I might be able to name some people" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 02:06:13 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"The Chinese lack of a and the is part of this funny clip" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 06:56:19 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"The fascinating thing is that no one in China gives a crap about AGI. People are interested in AI for immediate practical things like lowering customer support costs" @joequant on X 2025-07-16 05:00:30 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Also you get into "post hoc prompter hoc" issues. So non-US Chinese exports increased massively after the Trump tariffs but. That doesn't mean that you would not have had an export bump without Trump" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:03:58 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"So it turns out that none of this has to do with transshipment or exporters and it looks like people are just buying more stuff from China" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:55:33 UTC 1077 followers, 5367 engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Now my alternative thesis is that what happened is that Chinese govt and exporters understood that US trade was limited and so diversified their exports to non-US sources" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:02:49 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@StrategyEmerg @dawn2042 In the case of Qatar the spike in trade numbers is due to LNG ships. It shows that the scenario that Brooks posted of Chinese exporters desperate because of US consumers is wrong" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 03:31:01 UTC 1078 followers, XX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Jezzus. Have you looked at the responses where I debunked your nonsense Okay let me pull up the trade figures from Albania and Switzerland" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 03:41:15 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks I am trying to be polite but you aren't making it easy. Albania imports cars and iron bars from China. The cars are under Trump tariffs as far as iron bars. Albania has a massive scrap plant in Kurum" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 03:44:27 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"So the Chinese political system is trying to optimize for maximum social benefit. If it turns out that creating mega-clusters does create AGI then China can do that very quickly but this hasn't been proven and right now China is focusing more on applications of AI" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:55:07 UTC 1078 followers, XXX engagements
"@BarrettYouTube Also the Chinese govt is much more positive toward crypto than you would think. Once you understand what they want then you can figure out how to work with them" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 05:27:48 UTC 1064 followers, XX engagements
"This is kind of unreal how some people just can't look at things like facts. Once you dig through what countries are importing it is obvious that what happened that the Trump tariffs are not having an impact on exporters. In fact the story that seems to be the case" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 03:49:33 UTC 1077 followers, 3019 engagements
"Just want to get some validation because this chart looks all wrong. If this chart is right then AI is absolutely booming but this doesn't fit in with my experiences trying to get remote work. So would be interested to see whether something is off" @joequant on X 2025-07-16 23:25:58 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks I can go through everything Trump could possibly do and tell you what the exporters and Chinese govt will do in response because unlike Americans Chinese can think two chess moves ahead" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 04:52:54 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"Also the EU is just not set up for a trade war. In the case of China when Trump does X they have a meeting pull out the plans and immediately do Y. With the EU everything requires a committee meeting which means that you get into divide and conquer" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 05:46:33 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"Something that I find remarkable about Chinese funding is how decentralized it is. In the US most science and technology funding goes through the Federal govt which means that you end up talking with Congress and it means that there is one location for lobbyists to focus" @joequant on X 2025-07-16 11:25:18 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@JimRayn99592544 @gonglei89 Same thing that happen to me during the 2019 HK riots when the news didn't match what I was seeing. Also the idea that the Western media were active liars took me a while to accept and it still makes me a little crazy" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 10:31:38 UTC 1046 followers, XXX engagements
"@RambutanRed @GlennLuk I've seen this graph but my question is how much of the bank credit is going to new economy industrials. My understanding is that banks do not like lending to new economy companies and prefer to lend to SOEs (which is a problem)" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 07:03:32 UTC 1031 followers, XX engagements
"One thing that people get very wrong about Xi is that when he gives a "big speech" he is summarizing the discussion that has been going on for the previous several months. It seems like Xi is barking orders when in fact he is summarizing the consensus" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 06:20:16 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements
"I am pretty willing to debate this. "Personal experience" convinces me but it might not convince you. So I know Chinese exporters and I know what is going on in SZ. So that convinces me. Now you aren't me so you have to figure out how much to trust me or not" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:41:31 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@adcha91 @gonglei89 @GlennLuk @gdp1985 Really hard for me to believe but I am willing to be convinced" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 11:27:42 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Nope. In the case of Nauru it is a "gift" from Beijing" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 00:25:37 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"One thing to notice is that all of those "China is a mess" channels are often based on videos that are posted to Chinese social media. So the typical situation is that 1) something bad happens 2) people complain on social media 3) the bad thing gets fixed" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 07:32:45 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@petereharrell I strongly disagree is that if you just use the CPI index and run the tariffs through them the impact on total CPI is a rounding error. One way of illustrating this is to assume tariffs increase doubles the cost of an iPhones. How many iPhones a month do you buy anyway" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:37:06 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks It would make sense for China to increase trade with non-US areas even without Trump. Also once you dig into the numbers you see how the US is losing ground to China when it comes to manufacturing" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:06:32 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks I haven't looked at the numbers but my guess is that Palau doesn't have these sorts of numbers" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 00:27:16 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Qatar just bought a new fleet of LNG tankers from China Bulgaria trade is batteries and they just set up a new plant for BYD Hungary is commodites not otherwise specificed and batteries - they have a BYD plant Jordan is importing cars Jamaica is doing steel" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:50:04 UTC 1077 followers, 5835 engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Okay I just did some digging and it appears that in May 2025 someone on Nauru bought fishing ships from China" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 08:50:15 UTC 1078 followers, XXX engagements
"So I am looking at youtube videos for low low prices in tires in Paraguay and cell phones and then turns out everything is made in China" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:54:21 UTC 1078 followers, 5108 engagements
"@AngelicaOung so if things don't work well in Beijing you move back to Hunan and farm. Now once you get rid of hukou then you have to redo everything" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 09:21:24 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@gonglei89 So part of the AI tech embargo is aimed at preventing peaceful Chinese unification. One of the questions I have for @RushDoshi (who is blocking my comments) is when they wrote NSS-2022 and the AI chip limits was "wrecking Mainland/Taiwan cooperation" a goal" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 23:26:18 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein I think you are assume that Trump and the US elite is more rational than they are. The problem with weaponizing the dollar is that it just convinces people to move off of the dollar. Not going to happen tomorrow but its going to happen a lot more quickly than you would think" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:59:27 UTC 1039 followers, XX engagements
"So first of all the diagrams are misleading and you see this spike right after 2025 but then the whole diagram is spiky so after going through the databases I found" @joequant on X 2025-07-19 09:47:52 UTC 1077 followers, 5393 engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein China is going super into high tech right now. We aren't peasants growing rice. Global trust You are kidding me. Look I try to be polite but people are so delusional that it's hard for me to stomach it. You believe what you want and I'll just wait for reality to hit" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:15:20 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements
"Funding in China is incredibly decentralized because you have different funders and govts each with different pools of capital. One reason I think the why the system works is that the people that decide priorities aren't the people that decide funding" @joequant on X 2025-07-16 11:28:24 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks First of all I don't trust AI to do research. AI gets things wrong. For example I've posted the fishing boat registry. Yes my story does change every day. It's called learning new stuff and changing my views to fit the facts and new information" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 05:39:20 UTC 1078 followers, 2623 engagements
"So basically Taiwan can have total access to Mainland Chinese markets and keep Taiwan totally closed to Mainland Chinese goods" @joequant on X 2025-07-07 19:18:19 UTC 1066 followers, XXX engagements
"@robin_j_brooks If you look at the sectors that China is exporting in and the deals you will see that most of them were set up before Trump did his tariffs which means that you would see an export bump without Trump and this makes sense because with all of the talk about decoupling" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:05:20 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"HAHAHAHAHA. Funny to have someone argue that you don't exist. He is arguing that China can't surpass the US because somehow the US has this monopoly on creativity and dynamism. (i.e. people like me don't exist in China)" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 05:05:49 UTC 1077 followers, XXX engagements
"@JimRayn99592544 @gonglei89 Also the lies have gotten worse since the end of COVID. So during COVID I didn't cross the border and things were kind of slow after so when people said the situation was X I could have still believed it but now I've visited so many times that the mismatch is crazy" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 10:34:01 UTC 1047 followers, XX engagements
"@nerdtechgasm @robin_j_brooks Yeah and I found that out independently looking at the trade data. Once you look at Nauru's trade then you find that the imports were fishing vessels and then I did some googling to find the registration of the vessels. Also got myself into the politics of fisheries" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 03:33:09 UTC 1070 followers, XX engagements
"@GlennLuk But then you get into the question of "shifting resources." So in the US basic research is largely funded by the Federal Government through NSF and NIH so everything goes through the annual budget. That's NOT how things work in China" @joequant on X 2025-07-17 01:19:25 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@SomethingOnSnow And the fact that China might respond to all of the talk of the US decoupling by developing other markets has never occurred to people" @joequant on X 2025-07-20 04:47:39 UTC 1077 followers, XX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein The US borrow money from China then buys stuff and thinks that they are doing China a favor. But if your only function is to consume stuff you are easy to replace. Instead of lending money to Americans to buy Chinese stuff China can replace Americans with Arabs and Africans" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:20:51 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements
"@GlennLuk Well the US had an early tech lead in everything and also blew it. My theory on all this is that because Japan choose to keep its financial system the way it was in the 1990's that it was never able to mobilize new capital for developmental research" @joequant on X 2025-07-11 06:10:37 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein Also you forget one big thing. The US is unwilling to run trade deficits with China. So the system is over. Trump wants the US to stop running trade deficits at which point the whole freaking system falls apart. People in China are working on the new system" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:30:21 UTC 1059 followers, XX engagements
"@onechancefreedm @robin_j_brooks @M_C_Klein The problem is that the people that are making policy are so completely detached from reality that I don't even know where to begin and if I wasn't an American I wouldn't even try" @joequant on X 2025-07-18 07:01:27 UTC 1045 followers, XX engagements