#  @joequant Joequant Joequant posts on X about china, taiwan, if you, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +25% - [--] Month [---------] +143% - [--] Months [----------] +798% ### Mentions: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/posts_active)  - [--] Month [---] +20% - [--] Months [-----] +114% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +1.60% - [--] Month [-----] +14% - [--] Months [-----] +155% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::45808758/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) 43.1% [finance](/list/finance) 25.35% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 19.72% [currencies](/list/currencies) 4.51% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 3.1% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 1.97% [stocks](/list/stocks) 1.69% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.56% [financial services](/list/financial-services) #870 [vc firms](/list/vc-firms) 0.28% **Social topic influence** [china](/topic/china) #2722, [taiwan](/topic/taiwan) #494, [if you](/topic/if-you) 12.11%, [money](/topic/money) 11.55%, [hong kong](/topic/hong-kong) #684, [beijing](/topic/beijing) #395, [in the](/topic/in-the) 5.35%, [japan](/topic/japan) 4.23%, [investment](/topic/investment) 4.23%, [what is](/topic/what-is) 3.94% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@theotherparker](/creator/undefined) [@tgtmofficial](/creator/undefined) [@rambutanred](/creator/undefined) [@sccath](/creator/undefined) [@entropychase](/creator/undefined) [@whyknot](/creator/undefined) [@doveywan](/creator/undefined) [@blamblamtheman](/creator/undefined) [@kq992017](/creator/undefined) [@angelicaoung](/creator/undefined) [@cbankingeditor](/creator/undefined) [@why__knot](/creator/undefined) [@vshih2](/creator/undefined) [@newmancostanza](/creator/undefined) [@doggydog1208](/creator/undefined) [@predebutvtuber](/creator/undefined) [@newlefteviews](/creator/undefined) [@stevehou](/creator/undefined) [@taintedvirtuous](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "The curious thing is that China dealt with its financial bubble in a different way. They let real estate crash and avoided stimulus. Japan's three lost decades stand as the most comprehensive real-world experiment disproving Keynesian stimulus theory. Since [----] Japan has deployed every tool in the government spending playbook: massive infrastructure projects quantitative easing negative interest rates and https://t.co/nj4HO4z2QW Japan's three lost decades stand as the most comprehensive real-world experiment disproving Keynesian stimulus theory. Since [----] Japan has deployed every tool in" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2022191807459963162) 2026-02-13T06:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "both a US citizen and a PRC citizen. Assuming Hong Kong is not involved you can apply for both a US passport and a Chinese passport. However China will not issue a visa on your US passport and the US will only issue a visa on your Chinese passport under very limited" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2022537796184084875) 2026-02-14T05:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Also with respect to Taiwan I think Trump *is* playing 5-d chess. So Trump insists that Taiwan spend 5% GDP on defense. If Taiwan does spend this money it is going to make a lot of defense contractors happy. But what if Taiwan says no we aren't going to spend 5% GDP" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2022542327785697311) 2026-02-14T05:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The basic problem with US national security policy is that its based on lies. China is not a national security threat to the United States and if you create your national security strategy to deal with a non-existent threat then everything else is going to be fake" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/1972889537929261315) 2025-09-30T05:01Z [----] followers, 13.4K engagements "Also people wonder how can China make stuff so cheap. It turns out that New Yorkers are about get a taste of this with Luckin Coffee and Chagee. They are undercutting Starbucks and if you go to those tea places you see the same sort of Chinese process engineering that" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2014530367047532826) 2026-01-23T02:47Z [----] followers, 80.7K engagements "@NewLeftEViews 1) Yes. You do what the US did to trigger the rise of Asia. You have China sell capital goods to Africa but have high trade barriers to promote local industrialization. 2) Investment in capital and technology. If you look at things like Luckin Coffee you see how tech vastly" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2014970830749630618) 2026-01-24T07:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JesusFerna7026 The problem that I have with this and other neoclassical growth models is that they assume that TFP is an independent variable and they don't take into account that increased capital intensity is also spending on technology" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2016205108074459192) 2026-01-27T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It is likely unintentional but all of the interviews from Western defense people saying what a great guy Zhang Youxia was is just making Xi look good and Zhang look bad. I mean just imagine how people in the US would react if the Chinese military talked about how much they" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2016234320021909863) 2026-01-27T19:38Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements "The other thing is that telling most people in the West that the Chinese economy is in a doom loop because of *deflation* is going to result in a "what the hell" reaction. The Chinese economy *does* have problems but I honestly believe https://www.wsj.com/world/china/deflation-doom-loop-china-economy-25b0938ast=mkeYm3 https://www.wsj.com/world/china/deflation-doom-loop-china-economy-25b0938ast=mkeYm3" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2016819834378649987) 2026-01-29T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Also the lower the costs are the more people I can hire. Finally deflation helps push people to start their own companies. If you are making $$$$$ and spending $$$$$ then you aren't going to take any risks. If it turns out that you have $$$ in the bank and it just takes $" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2017195785067381233) 2026-01-30T11:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@iwelsh super low cost place in the US. Say Mississippi or West Virginia. The trouble is that the protectionists would love this but this kills the national security hawks" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2017247962917949731) 2026-01-30T14:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "So if I had a graduate student the thing that I would have them to is to 1) try to correlate trade data with different currencies with respect to CNY 2) split this up into time sequences to look at the correlations especially with various COVID events Also the thing that It would help if my critics accurately represented my thinking -- What I actually believe is that the pace of China's export volume growth is influenced by the level of the RMB . 1/3 It would help if my critics accurately represented my thinking -- What I actually believe is that the pace of China's export volume growth is" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2017489401337749960) 2026-01-31T06:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I would be interested in getting is the elasticity. So my gut says that if you move the exchange rate by 10% you will move the net exports by about 10% but that means that exchange rates is not going to fix the EU/China trade deficit" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2017489404022165584) 2026-01-31T06:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is a good summary of the standard Western view of the Chinese economy. It's is totally wrong. So what happened over the last few years is that people figured out that it was a bad idea for people to poor more and more money into real estate. This is scary because it hints the old China playbook is breaking. For more than two decades the global economy ran on a simple loop where China built relentlessly China absorbed commodities the rest of the world sold into that demand and everyone agreed not to ask too many This is scary because it hints the old China playbook is breaking. For more" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2017935458140131649) 2026-02-01T12:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "new industries. So the thing is that all of this takes a few years to set up. So for a few years China was parking its money into cash but you have a lot of rich people that want higher yields. So they want to invest in tech. The issue is that people don't know how this" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2017940024071979064) 2026-02-01T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "will work. The way that I *thought* it would work in [----] was that the cash would go from China to Hong Kong to Silicon Valley and then would go through the US VC firms and investment banks and then go back to China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2017940026152423856) 2026-02-01T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I have to get obnoxious here at the very low level of China coverage in the US. Xi has not made any statements about the USD/CNY rate or anything about CNY being the reserve currency. What Xi *has* said is much more interesting. Easy enough for China to have a strong currency -- just continue with current crawling appreciation against the dollar . 1/ https://t.co/uqnJFAczT9 Easy enough for China to have a strong currency -- just continue with current crawling appreciation against the dollar . 1/ https://t.co/uqnJFAczT9" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018146040415949024) 2026-02-02T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Strongly disagree. So the issues are 1) If I am right then this won't change trade surplus by much. The Chinese trade surplus will go down by 10-20% per year but it will still go up. 2) Once you appreciate the CNY then China can then buy massive amounts of assets in US/EU Don't think either the EU or the US would object to a stronger yuan -- so the ball really in in China's hands. Fix the yuan stronger and it will be stronger . Don't think either the EU or the US would object to a stronger yuan -- so the ball really in in China's hands. Fix the yuan stronger and it will be stronger " [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018147274971640255) 2026-02-02T02:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "So first of all capital controls involve conversions between (onshore CNY) and foreign currency. There are no capital controls on foreign currency moving in and out of Mainland China. Second there are two types of Chinese currency. Onshore CNY and offshore CNH. Offshore" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018272014864457797) 2026-02-02T10:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Chinese yuan (i.e. CNH) is not subject to capital controls" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018272016584073418) 2026-02-02T10:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Okay. Getting annoyed here 1) most of Xi's speech wasn't about the CNY becoming reserve currency 2) even the people that are commenting on CNY becoming reserve currency are getting it wrong. There is this belief that CNY cannot become reserve currency without lifting" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018511153035608082) 2026-02-03T02:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "One thing that I need to set up is a counter-blog that argues that this is all wrong. The big smoking gun is that you can look at the financial reports of the big banks and you can see that they aren't using their balance sheet for policy intervention. A new blog on China's hidden fx intervention which reached staggering scale in December [----] 1/ https://t.co/3z7J26O8bc A new blog on China's hidden fx intervention which reached staggering scale in December [----] 1/ https://t.co/3z7J26O8bc" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018517028504748421) 2026-02-03T02:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "And the problem with all of this is that if you look at the balance sheets of the banks it becomes pretty obvious that most of the foreign exchange is held by depositors and what you are seeing are Chinese depositors reacting to market conditions. It is quite clear that state bank purchases (and in 23/ early [--] sales) of fx have replaced PBOC purchases and sales and the core technique China uses to manage the band around the daily fx -- i.e. settlement looks like an intervention variable 2/ https://t.co/zJrwYVL0oY It is quite clear that state bank purchases (and in 23/ early [--] sales) of fx" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018717349202043374) 2026-02-03T16:04Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements "charge of those trillions of dollars of foreign exchange. Who tells them to pay me and how does that cash get to my startup Answer. It doesn't. So basically you have to have this new system in which someone says "hey I've got some foreign exchange lets use it to pay" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018910517264588815) 2026-02-04T04:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "this joequant guy". So my thesis is that a lot of the trillions in foreign exchange is not under the control of the Chinese state but under the control of people like the guy that has invested in my startup or the other guy that I am having dinner tonight with" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018910519080681485) 2026-02-04T04:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@PPGMacro You can look at the balance sheets for the banks but the big one would be loans to Chinese corporates for overseas operations. So on the one hand the companies that make dollars are non-state exporters. The companies that *need* dollars are big Chinese state-owned" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018912799100133689) 2026-02-04T05:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@PPGMacro enterprises. Think PetroChina doing a oil field in Angola. One thing about banks in China is that while onshore CNY is impressively securitized the type of thing that China wants to invest in are not. So the banks have to give directly loans" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2018913404220805299) 2026-02-04T05:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Even when he is *obviously* stabbing them in the back. The thing about Trump is that he respects strength. If he punches you then you had better punch him back. He threatens you. You threaten him. That establishes who has real power" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019362470247428262) 2026-02-05T10:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Now it turns out that a lot of the China haters are absolutely dependent on Trump so if they say bad things about him he remembers. The thing about Trump is that he hates people that cross him even if you agree with him. Look at Marjorie Taylor Greene" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019362473661592019) 2026-02-05T10:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is a lie. No nicer way of putting it. So I went in rednote looking for recent pictures of the GZ train station and I found some documentaries about an incident in [----]. 🚨Guangzhou Train Station [----] vs [----]. Same station. Same season. Completely different China. This is what economic decline looks like no narration needed. https://t.co/eovdh1GfdV 🚨Guangzhou Train Station [----] vs [----]. Same station. Same season. Completely different China. This is what economic decline looks like no narration needed. https://t.co/eovdh1GfdV" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019403042744070287) 2026-02-05T13:29Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements "I know several groups that have tried to create a gold backed token but it has never worked. Scott Bessent admitted he has heard rumors that China is working on a gold-backed token to be used as an alternative to the U.S. dollar for international payments and reserves. He gave no indication that he believes the rumor is false. If its true he should be very concerned. Scott Bessent admitted he has heard rumors that China is working on a gold-backed token to be used as an alternative to the U.S. dollar for international payments and reserves. He gave no indication that he believes the rumor is" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019650156636074479) 2026-02-06T05:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The basic problem is how do you fund the token If you so stablecoins you can get interest on the float. With gold you can't do that. What's worse is that once you have a gold token you make more money if you cheat. Once everyone uses your token you start to not keep gold" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019650158552838233) 2026-02-06T05:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Lumpenpancakes And Costco is a big hit in Shenzhen. What is fascinating is that Walmart China is very different from Walmart US but they made Costco the same" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019665357959807114) 2026-02-06T06:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The trouble with Bloomberg is that its behind a paywall but the issue here is that Trump's approach to China is Richard Nixon's. "Trumps threat to appropriate Greenland produced a pointless counterproductive rift in the transatlantic alliance.the more the US focuses on rogue states the less bandwidth there is for great-power rivals: The CSG .now menacing Iran was pulled from the South China Sea." "Trumps threat to appropriate Greenland produced a pointless counterproductive rift in the transatlantic alliance.the more the US focuses on rogue states the less bandwidth there is for great-power" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019891069211877475) 2026-02-06T21:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Also I will be wandering around @consensus_hk next week. It looks like it is going to be a blast. I do try to keep a distance between business and politics but sometimes these two worlds collide. So one thing I've been pointing out is that the China haters are X are liars" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019972359680348292) 2026-02-07T03:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And thing nice thing about trade shows is that you can come to Hong Kong or head up to Shenzhen and see for yourself. At that point you can compare what you see with what I am saying and what they are saying and then you can see who is telling the truth" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019972361488130326) 2026-02-07T03:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So one reason I've become a China maxxer is that it turns out that the people in Beijing are really interested in solving problems whereas people in Washington aren't. So if Chinese trade policy are causing issues in Africa then people in Beijing are more than willing to Well quite. I've been pointing out that not only might the current surplus be directly crowding out industrial production and innovation in some places but the fact the global goods surplus is now mostly in East Asia and Europe who together have also used up the carbon budget Well quite. I've been pointing out that not only" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019976522736783769) 2026-02-07T03:28Z [----] followers, 73K engagements "@jekavanagh It is not "can't" but "won't". The KMT-TPP opposition believes that more defense spending is just throwing good money after bad and that Taiwan should start talks with Beijing under [--] consensus" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019986218344456194) 2026-02-07T04:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I do and pretty much anyone that has visited China does. Things feel like it is growing at [--] percent GDP and people are kind of annoyed because it used to grow at [--] percent :-) :-) :-) Does anyone still believe in the CCPs GDP numbers Does anyone still believe in the CCPs GDP numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019989553143247260) 2026-02-07T04:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "One reason I think the Starbucks model isn't working that well in China is that you had this huge amount of real estate from the property boom. So rather than hang out in Starbucks you can find pretty cheap cowork space and then These mofos trying their hardest to get me to drink their coffee because lots of the serious coffee for connoisseurs shops in China are not configured to be cozy work spaces 😠These mofos trying their hardest to get me to drink their coffee because lots of the serious coffee for connoisseurs shops in China are not configured to be cozy work spaces ðŸ˜" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019993751066931556) 2026-02-07T04:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "pick up your Luckin Coffee on the way to your office" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019993753126318583) 2026-02-07T04:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is why you absolutely have to be here on the ground because otherwise you have absolutely no idea what is happening. So it turns out that the defacto rule in Feb [----] views crypto as foreign exchange. Wow a very harsh ban on all cryptocurrencies (except for the official one). Cannot even provide data or consultancy related to them. So HK is still a huge loophole. Will it be kept open Wow a very harsh ban on all cryptocurrencies (except for the official one). Cannot even provide data or consultancy related to them. So HK is still a huge loophole. Will it be kept open" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019999371602092374) 2026-02-07T04:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So in fact you can do OTC in Shenzhen as long as you trade from USD/HKD. Moving RMB to crypto directly in Mainland China is off limits" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2019999373720187318) 2026-02-07T04:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ojblanchard1 Also people *don't* buy bitcoin in hope of capital gains. People buy bitcoin because it is a nice store of value and easier to move around than gold" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020002291760431173) 2026-02-07T05:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Some random thoughts on the bitcoin crash especially with @TheOtherParker_ I think he is making things too complicated. Most hedge funds in Hong Kong don't do messy options strategies and those that do usually know what they are doing. Part of the problem is that the SEC" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020024978289356893) 2026-02-07T06:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "reports do list hedge funds but if you have a family office or individual with a lot of bitcoin holding then its not going to be broken out in the 13-F reports. Also the HK bitcoin sphere isn't that large so if a big hedge fund failed news would travel" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020024980260700575) 2026-02-07T06:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "What seems to make more sense to me is that someone with a lot of IBIT holdings panicked and ordered their broker to sell shares and that just triggered a meltdown. The two things that are "weird" are that 1) the meltdown happened after hours in HK and 2) you have this slow" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020024982248776000) 2026-02-07T06:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "trend downward. So my best guess is that someone in HK (not necessarily a hedge fund) lost a ton of money in silver put a ton of orders to sell IBIT and this pushed everything down" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020024984190820454) 2026-02-07T06:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@daniel_mcdowell Well its now a 70k question. My answer is that you should buy bitcoin with money that you assume will be lost. Put X money into bitcoin assume that money is gone and come back a few years later" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020027562530144440) 2026-02-07T06:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "What is bizarre is that no one in China really cares about "winning against the United States." The goal of the Chinese govt is to ensure national security and economic prosperity of China how the US does is irrelevant. The best way to win against the U.S. isnt to go to war but to demonstrate their faith in their system through its works. China succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. Whether WWIII happens or not it doesnt matter; China already won the war that matters. The spiritual one. The best way to win against the U.S. isnt to go to war but to demonstrate their faith in their system" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020037299896303708) 2026-02-07T07:29Z [----] followers, 27.2K engagements "Also about the PBC notice on cryptocurrencies and RWA. Same old. Same old" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020092654562996566) 2026-02-07T11:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I like reposting think tank nonsense because it is becoming more and more unhinged. If the PRC ever goes to war over Taiwan it is because it sees a life or death situation and so it will not stop until it either achieve victory or is forced into total defeat and that means Why should #US policymakers care about Chinas domestic stability in a #Taiwan conflict Learn more in our latest #ChinaGlobalPodcast episode with @BonnieGlaser feat. @SheenaGreitens and Jake Rinaldi New episode out now 👇https://t.co/83RyMEGub2 Why should #US policymakers care about Chinas domestic stability in a #Taiwan" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020096935898804702) 2026-02-07T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "nuclear war. This stuff is now pretty obvious to *everyone* that spends five minutes thinking about the situation and the only people that listen to this nonsense are people that are so desperate or delusional that they don't see reality" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020096939144978850) 2026-02-07T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Look. Trump is in the process of throwing Taiwan under the bus. Anyone with half a brain understands that the US cannot win a war against the PRC over Taiwan and you can just take a look at Ukraine to see what a disaster this is. All of the lies people are talking about" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020096941032673617) 2026-02-07T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So about the messaging from People's Bank of China. One reason you just have to be in Hong Kong if you are doing tokenization is that you figure out these notices before they go out. So one thing about these notices is that it matters 1) who is giving the notice and 2)" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020099732539076674) 2026-02-07T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "what exactly they are saying no with. So for 1) this is given by the People's Bank of China so that's where this is coming from and 2) a notice will say NO NO NO NO and then you read the list and then you realize that they didn't say you couldn't do X Y and Z" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020099735659380765) 2026-02-07T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So it is unlawful for a mainland entity to set up a cryptocurrency business. Is it unlawful for someone to own cryptocurrencies didn't mention that. So offshore entities can't provide cryptocurrencies to mainland companies. Okay what about mainland companies providing" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020099738972909817) 2026-02-07T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And the fact that Trump is planning to go to Beijing is a clear sign that he is throwing you under the bus. Now I am enjoying watching you squirm. The other thing is that the Taiwan legislature is blocking purchases of weapons so it works out well for everyone. This is one more reason why Trump should not go to China: Beijing is trying to leverage the visit by threatening to not permit it if the U.S. sells Taiwan weapons it needs. This is one more reason why Trump should not go to China: Beijing is trying to leverage the visit by threatening to not permit it if the U.S. sells Taiwan weapons" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020102559797514535) 2026-02-07T11:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@szewailaw_lis Yeah and then you go to Huaqiangbei get a bunch of parts and then cook up something crazy" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020133509910651253) 2026-02-07T13:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ligma__sigma @szewailaw_lis You can switch 50k USD per year in foreign currency. If you want more then there are money brokers in Hong Kong that can switch more. Pollution is not a huge issue because of EVs" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020137476417786297) 2026-02-07T14:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@EvgenyGaevoy Also I can tell you that here in Hong Kong there are no juicy rumors floating around. One reason that makes me think that it's not HK is the time zones. It looks more like Middle East" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020164921955434679) 2026-02-07T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@FranklinBi This just seems too complicated for the type of trades that happen in Hong Kong. The type of trade that happens in HK is some rich guy wants Bitcoin and you buy it for him and just manage it" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020165953695412338) 2026-02-07T16:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@blamblamtheman @KQ992017 But this has nothing to do with lawyers. In fact you can argue that too many lawyers drive up the cost of commerce and reduce legal certainty" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020244957362286866) 2026-02-07T21:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@blamblamtheman @KQ992017 And it turns out that most actual international business transactions don't involve threats of lawsuits. Basically you end up creating trust networks and use guarantors" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020245530648199353) 2026-02-07T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "So I am getting grumpy because Western media is just incompetent at covering Chinese finance and are missing some important connections. I've been arguing with @Brad_Sester in which I argue that Mainland Chinese entities have massive amounts of bank deposits which are ready to" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020290924853821590) 2026-02-08T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "get deployed. So one thing that Western media is missing is how this works with crypto. The big issue is that under Chinese law Mainland stuff is regulated by the People's Bank of China. Hong Kong stuff is regulated by the SFC and HKMA but what happens if you have" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020290926783107103) 2026-02-08T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "something cross-border. Mainland company has money in Hong Kong. At this point PBC SFC and HKMA have to have a meeting to decide what to do. So the big thing that happened on Friday is that PBC issued rules about what Mainland Chinese entities are allowed to do overseas" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020290928641212902) 2026-02-08T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "(i.e. in Hong Kong). First of all no stablecoins. So PBC has decided that Mainland Chinese entities will not be able to use their bank deposits to create stablecoins. So that's a flat no. With RWA's the field is more open. So instant of a red light there is a yellow" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020290930427982128) 2026-02-08T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "light. The general rule is that a mainland business won't be able to use RWA's to conduct businesses that they weren't able to do before" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020290932260892772) 2026-02-08T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@MarkSimonHK @POTUS @SecScottBessent Birds of a feather. The old Chinese economy is dying but they figured this out a decade ago so people are moving into the new Chinese economy. Real estate is an absolute crap show but that was intentional" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020300545207197794) 2026-02-08T00:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Speaking of which one funny question is that since people say that Chinese civilization is [----] years old in [----] did they say that Chinese civilization was [----] years old two thousand years ago. In fact they did. The traditional timeline for Chinese civilization How old is Chinese civilisation A scholar says it really dates back [----] years https://t.co/4jKsjnV7sv How old is Chinese civilisation A scholar says it really dates back [----] years https://t.co/4jKsjnV7sv" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020306295858032835) 2026-02-08T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "was put together in the Han dynasty and at the time they calculated that it was [----] years from the start of Chinese civilization. Also it is fun to compare early Chinese history with the way that the Romans the Greeks and Jews talk about their early history" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020306297858715889) 2026-02-08T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@GaryHaubold @robin_j_brooks Except this is post hoc prompter hoc. If you look at the numbers China was going to start exporting like crazy with or without US tariffs" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020306708720214442) 2026-02-08T01:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TiltFolio @robin_j_brooks The global south. Three to four billion people. Lots of rich Africans ready to buy Chinese goods. Oh the Africans aren't rich Well lets make them rich" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020307025830506946) 2026-02-08T01:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So you have people in bubbles and there was someone that was saying that they and their friends are all seeing their businesses in Mainland China die off. And that is happening. About a decade ago the Chinese govt figured out that the old economy was dead and so for" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020309022495371717) 2026-02-08T01:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "China to prosper it had to move to a new economy which it has done. Now people might argue that I have an unusually optimistic view of the Chinese economy because I am living in the new economy. I mean I have a Ph.D. in astrophysics and worked at an investment bank" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020309024366030897) 2026-02-08T01:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Also there was a China hater that was mentioning that China is a dead economy because neither he nor his friends see any business deals in China. The possibility that anyone that is trying to make money in China isn't talking to them didn't seem to occur to him" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020314385768657271) 2026-02-08T01:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The idea that the Chinese economy is falling apart is just flatly inconsistent with the $1.2 trillion trade surplus because economies that are falling apart just don't generate huge trade surpluses. So at this point people are talking this nonsense about an unbalanced" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020314387643527321) 2026-02-08T01:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@_samantha_joy Giving a toddler a baby book has benefits just beyond reading. Having a toddler hold a book that belongs to them gets them used to the world of books. Also the trouble with giving toddlers adult books is that toddlers will want to rip things up and it turns out that giving" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020316054338302236) 2026-02-08T01:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@_samantha_joy a toddler a book that they will end up drawing crayons and ripping up without being the end of the world just puts them into this world. One reason you want to get toddlers holding paper is that it gets them out of the world of tablets" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020316467271700667) 2026-02-08T01:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@_samantha_joy Also a lot of the purpose of toys is so that the child can start copying adult things. That's why dolls are useful. You don't want to let a [--] year old take care of an infant but giving a kid a doll lets them start copying you. Same with books" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020317517504475384) 2026-02-08T02:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan Also in the Hong Kong bitcoin world. 2) Is kind of implausible to me because once a fund goes under its clients are going to be screaming bloody murder and once a fund looks shaky the employees are going to be interviewing at other funds. All the rich people know each other" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020320572513845256) 2026-02-08T02:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan 4) Yeah but if you are an Asian firm that just went bust then you'd likely dump everything at the start of trading but the pattern you saw was a slow exponential drop. The timing suggests that it is more likely that it came out of Dubai" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020322029954822551) 2026-02-08T02:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan One thing about HK is that one reason word travels fast is that the rich people in Hong Kong come from very different groups and it's pretty much impossible for any one group to keep everyone from talking. This is much less true of SG and not the case at all for Dubai" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020322405743509966) 2026-02-08T02:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan The other thing that makes me think Middle East is that on the day after bitcoin went down and then back up and this trough corresponds to Middle East trading times and not HK" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020322839879143546) 2026-02-08T02:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan Also (and would be interested in views from other people in HK). Most people in HK just don't do crazy option stuff. If you can figure out how to move large amounts of money from Mainland China to buy bitcoin you can make money just doing that. There are people that" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020323400431071469) 2026-02-08T02:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan do crazy option stuff but for the most part these people know what they are doing and so I don't see them getting rekt" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020323652215214337) 2026-02-08T02:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan One other thing is that just because you have a lot of HK hedge funds listed as IBIT shareholders doesn't mean that this is where most of the money is. The thing is that HK hedge funds have no reason to hide their existence and being listed as a "big holder" of IBIT gives" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020324284066107463) 2026-02-08T02:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@JonnieKing @dgt10011 Writing from Hong Kong. The new PBC regulations are aimed at stablecoins and RWA's and didn't hit bitcoin and there was nothing in the regs that people didn't expect" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020339052202062289) 2026-02-08T03:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan The thing is that if bitcoin stabilizes at 70k or goes up its possible that the there is no body. I can imagine a situation where a hedge fund desperately tries to liquidate to meet its margin calls and manages to survive or dies off quietly in a few weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020340258295120341) 2026-02-08T03:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MarkSimonHK Yes and the nice thing about the Chinese govt is that they've set up the rules so that Alibaba can't kill SME's the way that Amazon does. What Amazon does is to force SME's to give them their data then just kill small companies and the pay workers crap wages" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020343441423757421) 2026-02-08T03:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@AngelicaOung @fbermingham Also there are more issues involved than just China. The important thing is that it causes Trump to put some pressure on Japan to cool down. One thing about expressing displeasure is that if you do nothing then that just gives people a signal to push things further" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020477074499330280) 2026-02-08T12:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@AngelicaOung @MarkSimonHK @POTUS @SecScottBessent Or MIC2025. Or popping the housing bubble. Or moving to renewables. Or massive expansion in public education. Or high speed rail. And massive investment in LED production :-) :-) https://www.youtube.com/watchv=Qc7HmhrgTuQ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=Qc7HmhrgTuQ" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020487355891941439) 2026-02-08T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@jeffjohnroberts @dgt10011 @TheOtherParker_ Yeah but @TheOtherParker would be the first to tell you that he is just guessing and we've had a nice conversation about this theory. Right now I am of the opinion that the blowup *didn't* start in Hong Kong because 1) HK funds generally don't do crazy options trades and" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020503734955172061) 2026-02-08T14:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "One other thing is that this shows that Eric is an incompetent manager at so many levels. Any competent manager would have gotten his team to ignore any trades and any decent IT system would allow the manager to lock out the terminal. Every finance person needs to watch this episode from season [--] of Industry: https://t.co/vaJ1tRfme7 Every finance person needs to watch this episode from season [--] of Industry: https://t.co/vaJ1tRfme7" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020517020635214013) 2026-02-08T15:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@thegreatola Actually that's the joke. The producers obviously know that Rishi is an absolutely terrible trader and this ends up biting both him and Pierpoint" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020518244952502574) 2026-02-08T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@AJ_MultiChain @thegreatola Exactly. Also there was no risk team which explains why everything blew up in the next few episodes" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020518614063861917) 2026-02-08T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TheOtherParker_ Do you have a name in mind The thing is that the names in the 13-F just don't strike me as people that are running weird strategies. The people that are running weird strategies wouldn't be holding ibit directly but would doing it through prime broker" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020671981499163086) 2026-02-09T01:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TheOtherParker_ In fact I do have some names in mind (and they aren't the ones in the filings) so I have a list of people I want to talk to at Consensus" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020672741490520210) 2026-02-09T01:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@niubi He won't. The whole point of making a big deal over Taiwan is to put Takachi and Trump on notice that PRC won't back down regardless of Japanese politics" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020673385660059816) 2026-02-09T01:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@niubi It really depends if Takachi says something about Taiwan" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020673703206347015) 2026-02-09T01:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@kenmoriyasu I don't think that was China's strategy. It's 1) make sure the US keeps Trump under control and 2) make it clear to whoever is in charge in Tokyo that bringing up Taiwan has consequences" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020674440410145013) 2026-02-09T01:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "One thing that people are missing about the Zhang Youxia situation is that it reorganizes the command structure of the Chinese military to match that of the United States and pretty much every other nation. In the US POTUS is the command-in-chief of the military" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020679883308105863) 2026-02-09T02:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Also about the Japanese elections. The goal of Beijing was never to remove Takaichi because that's out of Beijing's control. It's to put whoever the Prime Minister of Japan is that the PRC absolutely will not back down on Taiwan and more importantly to make it clear to the US" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020681075572535423) 2026-02-09T02:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "and specifically Donald Trump that Beijing will not back down on Taiwan and is willing to go to war over this issue. Once you understand that this is an issue over which Beijing will go to war over then the idea of "deterrence" won't work because nothing will deter" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020681077585793222) 2026-02-09T02:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Beijing from war if Taiwan goes totally independent. At this point Trump and Takaichi can decide what to do and what Trump does is more important than what Takaichi does. I think Beijing's assessment is that what happens in Tokyo matters less than getting Trump" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020681079586525593) 2026-02-09T02:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So if you are a private owner of a small factory or startup and you are "working" (i.e. you are actually managing things) this is an example of "worker ownership" and considered a good thing. So for me I am busy running the startup and so I am a "worker"" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020689922110423443) 2026-02-09T02:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And if I make a ton of money this is good. It turns out that most of my investors are people that are also "workers". Someone starts a business makes money running the business has extra money to invest" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020689923935015143) 2026-02-09T02:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "filler once can express that there is some deep thinking going on. Yeah. Right. Also the there is something about linguistic registers. You can emphasize that one part of the message was carefully thought out and edited and more formal. So this just shows" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020692858349789623) 2026-02-09T02:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "how subtle communications can be. Yeah. I think that's right. You think" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020692860442734656) 2026-02-09T02:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@monkey_luffy @james_riney Part of it is that it fits the narrative of heroic fighter against China. In fact my guess is that Takaichi is going to end up with your standard right wing LDP policy toward China and is likely to soft pedal the Taiwan issue" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020698545612058626) 2026-02-09T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yes but *NOT* taking on Takaichi would have made things worse. If PRC had just said nothing Takaichi would have screamed about how they made Beijing beg and you still would have had a landslide victory. Tokyo is at least on notice that bringing up Taiwan will huge win for japan pm takaichi in elections today. china taking her on only made her more popular. huge win for japan pm takaichi in elections today. china taking her on only made her more popular" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020700752403198168) 2026-02-09T03:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "cause problems whereas if Beijing had done nothing this would have been seen as a "victory" for deterence and Takaichi would be under pressure to push things even further. One problem with the Taiwan statements was that they were made after something of a honeymoon" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020700754886152324) 2026-02-09T03:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I think Beijing's hope is that Takaichi will focus on economic issues and not bring up Taiwan but the purpose of the strong reaction is to make it clear the consequences if she didn't do that. Also the other thing is that this kind of forced Trump to take a side" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020700756953936220) 2026-02-09T03:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Japan was very dissatisfied at the lack of support from Donald Trump and as long as Trump doesn't back Japan in any statements about Taiwan there isn't much that Takaichi can do" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020700759445393562) 2026-02-09T03:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Actually no. The consensus among us wumao's is that Beijing made its point. As long as Takaichi doesn't mention Taiwan then things will calm down. If Takaichi does mention on Taiwan then things will get bumpy. One thing that calms things down is that Trump seems to be I think there will be tons of wumaos and shills crying and threat of nuclear bombing of Japan tomorrow. Be sure to send us any interesting comments https://t.co/2Mu8UWA1Gj I think there will be tons of wumaos and shills crying and threat of nuclear bombing of Japan tomorrow. Be sure to send us any interesting comments" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020702951766114341) 2026-02-09T03:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "having a "good relationship with Xi" and as long as that exists then it doesn't matter what Takaichi wants since Trump will order her to STFU. The thing is that it was not a mistake for Beijing to scream at Takaichi because if Beijing didn't the narrative would be that" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020702954182086725) 2026-02-09T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Beijing is weak and she would have gotten a landslide anyone. One thing that I find interesting about the "China bashers" is that they can only see things in the framework of "regime change." As long as Japan doesn't interfere in Chinese internal affairs no one cares who" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020702956103094744) 2026-02-09T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "the Japanese elect and if it turns out that Takaichi keeps quiet on Taiwan. We are all good. The political situation is that there are anti-China people in the LDP and they are trying to cooperate with neocons in the US. How much Takaichi personally supports the anti-China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020702957864673689) 2026-02-09T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "group and how much this is just political pandering I have no idea but it doesn't matter. The big thing that Beijing is focused on is Trump because Trump can order Takaichi to STFU. One thing about Takaichi is that if her main goal is economic she has to at some point" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020702959685050395) 2026-02-09T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TGTM_Official So I've just posted my wumao thoughts. The thing is important is that Beijing cares about *policies* and not *people*. I don't expect Takaichi to back track on her statements of Taiwan but the question is whether she pushes things further and that is her call" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020703343329562706) 2026-02-09T03:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Also putting aside the issue of China I am fascinated by Takaichi's economic program because I don't know whether or not it will work or not. The thing is that she now has a tremendous amount of political capital and so she can do some unpopular things. Both Trump and Takaichi came to power with mandates conditioned on the resurgence of a new right-wing populism shaped by cost-of-living and immigration concerns. Both project a no-nonsense anti-establishment persona as their primary form of interfacing with the electorate. Both https://t.co/YYfXSjbgXM Both Trump and Takaichi came to power with" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020706407881085340) 2026-02-09T03:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The hope that us wumaos have is that Takaichi will figure out that talking about Taiwan is just not going to help her so that she STFU about Taiwan and then focuses on fixing the Japanese economy. The dilemma for China is that China would actually like to help" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020706410275991593) 2026-02-09T03:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@NewshamGrant It's not pretextual. The thing is that Beijing tries not to hold personal grudges and there is no reason for Beijing to attack her. Beijing's reaction was about the actual statement which she could have answered in a dozen different ways" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020707038935015686) 2026-02-09T03:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@NewshamGrant The worry from Beijing is that Takaichi is just a staking horse and that this was a trial balloon to test Beijing's reaction to convince people in DC to take more pro-Taiwan position but Trump seems to have reassured Xi that this is not what is going on" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020707332813107486) 2026-02-09T03:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "No. Whenever someone makes a statement about Taiwan you can expect PRC to go ballistic and part of the reason it does so is to prevent salami slicing. You make a lot of little steps that are common sense. Thanks for pointing that out. With China everything is pretextual. Her commonsensical comment about Taiwan was just an excuse to attack her. The dietmember who asked her the question has family business in China and is a PRC proxy. She has not backed down. NBC News needs to do Thanks for pointing that out. With China everything is pretextual. Her commonsensical comment about Taiwan was just" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020707786741719168) 2026-02-09T03:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "And pretty soon something really has changed. The point that Beijing wants to make is that it is willing to go "all the way" with Taiwan and as long as people understand that this is the situation we will be fine" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020707788775976981) 2026-02-09T03:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I try to be interesting. Being an wumao/CCP-pinko symp is part of my identity but there are parts of me that don't fit into that category and I am genuinely fascinated in seeing of Takainomoics will work or not. Hints from Takiaichi and Katayama suggest theyre considering funding the consumption tax cut on food via the ESF (FX reserves). I speculated about this possibility in a note to clients over a month ago. Its a reasonable idea. The tax cut costs $32bn. The ESF holds $1.3T. Hints from Takiaichi and Katayama suggest theyre considering funding the consumption tax cut on food via the ESF" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020709744298930354) 2026-02-09T04:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is pretty wrong. One mistake that people make is to assume that all of us wu-mao pinko commies get our marching orders from party central. In fact we do think for ourselves which means that we will disagree with each other and with the official party line. 8th February [----] Hu Xijin views on Japanese [----] election. How to read Hu Xijin correctly: He is not a random nationalist uncle. He is a signal amplifier for how Chinas system wants events to be framed. When Hu says China wins it usually doesnt mean China improved. It https://t.co/tCo3YO0DdC 8th February [----] Hu Xijin views on" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020720030229704883) 2026-02-09T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Just to give an example. I am an industrial maximalist and I think that the current economic policies might over emphasize consumption. I would have preferred if the PBoC were more permissive with stablecoin. Most interestingly outside of China issues I *like* Takaichi" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020720032448475140) 2026-02-09T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I'd be a Takaichi fan if she kept her mouth shut about Taiwan since her economic policies seems to be at least interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020720035396739533) 2026-02-09T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@vertex_oi @gaijinthoughts Also I think there would be some resistance within the LDP itself" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020721269327446516) 2026-02-09T04:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@gaijinthoughts Which is interesting because China is trying to welcome high skill immigrants. One reason Hong Kong is interesting is it's a test case in assimilation of people into China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020733817154372076) 2026-02-09T05:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Euunul No that is not true. There is no official office of commander in chief and it is unclear constitutional who is in command of the military. This is a problem" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020746992939602365) 2026-02-09T06:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@MrBig2024 @MabelMatsumoto @KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung The trouble is that fear fails if it goes into anger. I think Beijing has already made its point" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2020799711758762291) 2026-02-09T09:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Brad_Setser @vshih2 No. If I can figure out what is going on I bet most people in Hong Kong finance know where the money is and certainly Beijing does. One thing I find fascinating is that when you blogged about Taiwan the CBC immediately responded" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021016174973350296) 2026-02-10T00:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Brad_Setser @vshih2 Whereas PBC has been ignoring you. The only person that's been interested in commenting on your stuff is me and I am a nobody. But even I know where some of the bodies are buried because I buried some of them" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021016850608554466) 2026-02-10T00:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@vshih2 @Brad_Setser I am not entirely sure that the People's Bank of China knows where all of the money is. However the Ministry of State Security and the CCP Central Disciplinary Inspection Commission certainly do" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021017695416926356) 2026-02-10T00:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@vshih2 @Brad_Setser For that matter the main reason that Xi ended up on top was that he figured out where all the money was. The big battles in the 2010's was whether the ton of money that belonged to Chinese and Russian oligarchs would be mobilized by BRICS or by the West. Putin and Xi won" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021019136638459957) 2026-02-10T00:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@farmerrf @LukaszRachel Yes. For the longest time people assumed that Chinese official statistics were crap and so people used alternative numbers that had lower growth. The issue is that it's starting to be obvious that the official numbers were accurate" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021026155265228912) 2026-02-10T00:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@farmerrf @LukaszRachel Essentially if Madisson-Wu was right then Keir Starmer would not have just gone to Beijing begging for money" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021028198369329472) 2026-02-10T01:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Loving how things are changing. I happen to think that Takaichi is being provocative and Japan is to blame for tensions. It's good that more and more people seem to agree with me. One problem that separates me from the China haters. Journalists writing about Japan: stop saying that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's standing up to China is "provocative" or "hard-line." You're implying that leaders the world over should yield to China and blaming Japan for Sino-Japanese tensions. https://t.co/mqeA4Mp16W Journalists writing about Japan: stop saying that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021030399573655755) 2026-02-10T01:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Is that even if I don't agree with you I can see how you see the world and why you see it that way. The China haters tend to view their world view as the one truth so if you see the world a different way you are a bad person" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021030401297481786) 2026-02-10T01:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So he keeps getting this wrong by assuming that the Chinese media landscape is just this one unified system. So the first thing that you want to see is the official line and for that you go to the foreign policy spokesman and presents the official position which is pretty Less than [--] hours after Takaichi Sanae won the election Chinese media is already reacting. The usual language showed up almost immediately. Japan is returning to militarism. Japan is becoming a threat again. The framing was familiar and predictable. What stood out more was https://t.co/gnQIjkQtBA Less than [--] hours after" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021036818586878358) 2026-02-10T01:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "simply because no instructions have been given on how to handle that. Now if a lot of people get angry then they will have a meeting to decide what to do and if a lot of people are angry they will likely shut down the discussion" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021036826878935535) 2026-02-10T01:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So the point here is that the interaction between officials and social media is messy. What is not a good idea is to take social media and then use that to assume things about official attitudes. If you want to know the official position of the Chinese govt just go to" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021036829542367497) 2026-02-10T01:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@gdp1985 @ZiadMDaoud Actually it's pretty simple. If Trump wants to spend [---] trillion/year USD to build a military to fight China it's kind of stupid for China to hand him the cash" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021037407026676147) 2026-02-10T01:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I mean *surely* there must be someone at CFR or in DC that can answer these questions. I mean IMF World Bank Are they *this* clueless. Shudder. Anyway if you want to know where the banks store their treasuries. It's mostly UK. If you look at the UK TIC" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021051149223330097) 2026-02-10T02:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "numbers there is this huge increase in UK holdings of US Treasuries since [----]. The money goes through Hong Kong and ends up in UK investment banks" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021051151224050088) 2026-02-10T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Why__Knot PRC does what it does to make it very clear to everyone that it disagrees" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021056988424376539) 2026-02-10T03:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@AngelicaOung @shetlerjones Right now the situation is stable. Beijing's reaction to Takaichi's election was muted. For the situation to spin out of control the US would have the back Japan and Trump seems to not be interested" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021070517164441679) 2026-02-10T03:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Why__Knot Not true. Beijing accepts international law. You might not agree with its arguments but they exist. All this nonsense hurts your case. If you argue that PRC rejects international law then you lose credibility once people find out that they have legal arguments" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021099993571193162) 2026-02-10T05:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@NewLeftEViews The system is designed this way. Suppose you are the dictator of Elbonia. It looks bad if someone looks at the stats and finds out that Elbonia has huge reserves" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021101018239684648) 2026-02-10T05:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@NewLeftEViews So the system is designed to hide this. At first in the early 2010s this channel was used by rich Chinese to hide money from Xi. But after Huawei the rich Chinese are now more afraid of the US than China taking their cash" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021101529512784157) 2026-02-10T05:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@NewLeftEViews The old joke is you use Singapore to hide money from the Chinese govt whereas you use Hong Kong to hide money for the Chinese govt" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021101858954354940) 2026-02-10T06:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Why__Knot No it doesn't. The argument against Taiwan being independent is that facts on the ground don't confer sovereignty. The PRC takes the position that it never agreed to binding arbitration and hence the panel is an illegal panel" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021108122211975269) 2026-02-10T06:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@NewLeftEViews This is a long standing disagreement I have with @Brad_Setser. My position is that over the last few years China has reduced the role of the central bank in exchange management" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021236847964197188) 2026-02-10T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DoomLog_ @Brad_Setser Because it's not news. If you are at the desk of any investment bank you will see orders from Chinese banks and corporates flowing through Hong Kong to London. Not only can you not move hundreds of billions of dollars with no one noticing you can't move it without everyone" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021247897426088410) 2026-02-10T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@getpy @Brad_Setser Actually I think that China may be going to zero Treasuries. Instead of investing in US Treasuries China would develop an offshore money market by which China's USD trade surplus would be going to funding Chinese corporates doing overseas projects" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021249987032608868) 2026-02-10T15:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@yieldsearcher And then the August [----] gold confiscation. So to stabilize the currency Chiang ordered the seizure of gold for paper money which soon inflated. This lost Chiang the support of merchants" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021258466237767726) 2026-02-10T16:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Why__Knot You are irrationally ignoring the existence of legal arguments. I am not asking you to agree with the PRCs legal arguments merely acknowledge they exist. In any case even if you don't others will see the facts that PRC cares more about int law than the US" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021262869208138013) 2026-02-10T16:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Why__Knot Sovereignty of Taiwan was transferred to the Republic of China by the Instrument of Surrender of Japan and the People's Republic China is the successor state of the ROC and the sole legitimate govt of China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021263772325658758) 2026-02-10T16:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Why__Knot You can find counterarguments based on either the right of self determination or invoking the treaty of San Francisco. My point is not that the PRC's argument is correct but that exists. In fact since I am KMT I don't agree with the PRC" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021264377131724954) 2026-02-10T16:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Why__Knot I take the view that sovereignty of Taiwan was transferred to China in [----]. There is one China but that China is in a state of civil war which should be resolved by discussions between the rival govts. I support the Republic of China" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021265004314407145) 2026-02-10T16:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Why__Knot My view (which is the view of the KMT) is Taiwan is not an independent state but is part of China which is currently in a state of civil war" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021265569966620972) 2026-02-10T16:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Why__Knot My belief is that the KMT-TPP can gain control of the govt on Taiwan in [----] and once and for all settle this issue that Taiwan is part of China and not an independent state" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021266226664677421) 2026-02-10T16:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Brad_Setser @stevehou And Belgium is Euroclear. My gut says most Chinese holdings of treasuries is in UK and Caymans and not in Euroclear/Clearstream. The stuff in UK is transactional. For Euroclear/Clearstream most of the people I imagine holding treasuries would not have accounts in Euroclear/" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021269477531246682) 2026-02-10T17:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@CBankingEditor and @stevehou were talking about how top people in finance have little respect or economics knowledge. This is true but it's interesting why. In finance your rank depends on how much money you make. Managers make money from social skills" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021398030117896478) 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Traders make money from gut intuition from the markets. Okay what if you need a math geek. Well in that case you have money why hire a physicist/math wannabe when you can hire an MIT trained physicist like me" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021398032055755022) 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So what ends up happening is that a lot of economist try to get social status through putting out lots of math models. However if you hire someone that can read math you get conversations like" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021398036296106079) 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Trader: I don't understand the math but my gut says the convulsions are bullcrap Me flipping through the math: okay I understand the math and you are right the paper is bullcrap Trader: Thought so" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021398040624713811) 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "big bonuses. Outside of data science and statistics work you are useless for anything that makes money. Also economists will bs you into thinking that they have some arcane knowledge. Whereas physicists will do the "explain this to me like I am five"" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021398051580194898) 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""okay if the red line hits the blue line we die". So I don't get along with economists. Funny enough get along really well with anthropologists and sociologists" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021398055090782501) 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is a nice scene from margin call. I never talked to the CEO but my bosses bosses boss who is an astrophysicist who left banking to start a chicken farm did https://youtu.be/7prnY2FOxnssi=TCaKBhePOY1D8Z03 https://youtu.be/7prnY2FOxnssi=TCaKBhePOY1D8Z03" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021400168554430724) 2026-02-11T01:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Welcome to the new world" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021482172390179172) 2026-02-11T07:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@WestsideLAGuy You are only as good as your last breakthrough. So I am desperately worried for the future of MIT and in fact all science in the United States because of budget cuts and underinvestment. Also there is the lack of access to educational opportunities. Then there is the high cost" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021597629197525495) 2026-02-11T14:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "At #ConsensusHK2026 and I got one of those "OMG I am in the middle of a movie" moments. So I figured I would talk about real life Industry and Margin Call. First of all as far as setting Margin Call was set in [----] and just could not happen today. There is this scene in the" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609673116500090) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "movie where the the compliance person says "the regulators can slow us down but not stop us." well. Today they would stop you. :-) :-) One thing about Margin Call is that the people involved are pretty competent whereas the people in Industry are pretty incompetent" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609675025006823) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And an example of competent traders in action. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=6D7KVozqRvk https://www.youtube.com/watchv=6D7KVozqRvk" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609679420575987) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The thing about the characters in Industry is that they are characters. They are kind of based on real life but there is no way that someone that are as dysfunctional as the people in Industry would really be able to not self-destruct. The people in Margin Call are "scary" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609681500967279) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "real" so much so that I can put names to people I know that would act in exactly the same way. It's partly because the people in Margin Call are professionals so that they are doing their job doing it well so it doesn't matter what personal drama they have" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609683673321823) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Also I find the inaccuracies to be interesting. In the case of Industry the inaccuracies are pretty huge but they are huge in a way that I can tell that they changed the story not to get sued. For example anyone that watches season [--] should know that they are really talking" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609685766574539) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "about cryptocurrencies but that would be "real enough to get us sued" so they make major plot changes. Also the career paths unrealistically fast. Also people are just *nicer* in real life than in Industry. Remember that a lot of finance involves getting people to do what" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609687951511754) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "you want and the people that succeed tend to be very pleasant people. In fact every people that are sharks and scammers are very pleasant people. Also most people in finance have good personal relationships" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609690174456237) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "In Industry the people are realistic and you can tell that they are trying to be nice to each other. What is interesting about Margin Call is that they get all of the big things right but they end up getting little things wrong. So the impression I get is that you had actors" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609692485529892) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "that talked to finance people and got most of the things right. For example you wouldn't call the person with the report an analyst but you would call him a quant and he would more likely be an astrophysicist than a rocket scientist. One other thing that I like about" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609694687830318) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Industry that is better than Margin Call probably because of budget is that they get the location shots right. The offices look real the settings also look real and that is why I got one of the "OMG I am in a movie" moments because I was in a place that looked exactly" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609696809886064) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "like a scene from the show have a similar conversation only of course with nicer friendlier people. Also with the plots Margin Call is a slice of 2007-2008. The thing about Industry is that the plots are pretty melodramatic but real life can be weirder. I am sure that" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021609699246756131) 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@CBankingEditor I don't think so. I think that the big focus will be not on the stock markets but on early stage companies. Also I don't expect that Beijing will order the banks to prioritize tech. What I *do* expect is for Beijing to gently suggest to the state owned enterprises that they" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021617063807381714) 2026-02-11T16:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@AngelicaOung You get a very different picture if you look at the total population of sub-saharan Africa. It was [--] billion in [----] and expected to be close to [--] billion in [----]. Once you put that number in then you will see that the fraction of people in poverty goes down" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021620354310090761) 2026-02-11T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RambutanRed Yeah but they come up with a strategy before writing checks. If you write the checks without a strategy you'll just be giving cash to the most politically connected" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021647464252813351) 2026-02-11T18:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This thread explains why I am worried about the US in science and tech. Shot. chaser https://t.co/Im9hJBaljk Shot. chaser https://t.co/Im9hJBaljk" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021727825846505623) 2026-02-11T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Here is the China national strategy on AI. The thing about this doc is it makes freaking sense. I can't imagine Trump coming up with a similar doc for science strategy. https://digichina.stanford.edu/work/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/ https://digichina.stanford.edu/work/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021727828258304478) 2026-02-11T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I happen to be into competition. When I worked at bank X it made me feel good when the bank across the street were at the top of their game. Them being good kicked us into being better. One reason I am into markets is that you have companies fight each other but this" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021727835136889227) 2026-02-11T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "produces social good. In finance I happen to be in Team Hong Kong but I like the competition with Team Singapore and Team Dubai. If you win by kneecapping the other side then this isn't good for anyone" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021727838102233259) 2026-02-11T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@sc_cath That's how things *should* work but they don't. I have almost never read an economics paper where they say okay the data doesn't fit our model completely and this is where our model is wrong. Instead of stripping out the math so you have a small set assumptions which you can" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021728847469981972) 2026-02-11T23:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Josh_Merfeld There is a quick way of showing that it's all bullcrap 1) have you ever seen an economist look back at wrong predictions 2) if the economists knew what they were doing why does the world suck" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021737360187437524) 2026-02-12T00:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@EntropyChase @sc_cath Okay as luck would have it I am going through this paper. https://x.com/i/status/2020830574651576629 The link from industrial policy to macro imbalances and from there even to societal impacts is SOOO often implied but rarely demonstrated. This looks cool. @LucaFornaro3 can you do this for "New energy" electrotech solar/wind/battery/EV please https://x.com/i/status/2020830574651576629 The link from industrial policy to macro imbalances and from there even to societal impacts is SOOO often implied but rarely demonstrated. This looks cool. @LucaFornaro3 can you do this" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021742886141014162) 2026-02-12T00:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@EntropyChase @sc_cath So the problem is that you have regressions at the end that supposedly confirm the findings of the paper. But the problem is that you end up making a dozen assumptions and there is no real discussion about why you made that assumption" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021743362018279462) 2026-02-12T00:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@EntropyChase @sc_cath Also you can get any result you want by modifying the household utility function. No discussion as to how the utility function is motivated. You end up with a model that says that Chinese households buy up foreign assets when they don't" [X Link](https://x.com/joequant/status/2021743985145020541) 2026-02-12T00:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@joequant Joequant
Joequant posts on X about china, taiwan, if you, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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- [--] Month [-----] +14%
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CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence countries 43.1% finance 25.35% travel destinations 19.72% currencies 4.51% cryptocurrencies 3.1% technology brands 1.97% stocks 1.69% social networks 0.56% financial services #870 vc firms 0.28%
Social topic influence china #2722, taiwan #494, if you 12.11%, money 11.55%, hong kong #684, beijing #395, in the 5.35%, japan 4.23%, investment 4.23%, what is 3.94%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bradsetser @theotherparker @tgtmofficial @rambutanred @sccath @entropychase @whyknot @doveywan @blamblamtheman @kq992017 @angelicaoung @cbankingeditor @why__knot @vshih2 @newmancostanza @doggydog1208 @predebutvtuber @newlefteviews @stevehou @taintedvirtuous
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"The curious thing is that China dealt with its financial bubble in a different way. They let real estate crash and avoided stimulus. Japan's three lost decades stand as the most comprehensive real-world experiment disproving Keynesian stimulus theory. Since [----] Japan has deployed every tool in the government spending playbook: massive infrastructure projects quantitative easing negative interest rates and https://t.co/nj4HO4z2QW Japan's three lost decades stand as the most comprehensive real-world experiment disproving Keynesian stimulus theory. Since [----] Japan has deployed every tool in"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"both a US citizen and a PRC citizen. Assuming Hong Kong is not involved you can apply for both a US passport and a Chinese passport. However China will not issue a visa on your US passport and the US will only issue a visa on your Chinese passport under very limited"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Also with respect to Taiwan I think Trump is playing 5-d chess. So Trump insists that Taiwan spend 5% GDP on defense. If Taiwan does spend this money it is going to make a lot of defense contractors happy. But what if Taiwan says no we aren't going to spend 5% GDP"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The basic problem with US national security policy is that its based on lies. China is not a national security threat to the United States and if you create your national security strategy to deal with a non-existent threat then everything else is going to be fake"
X Link 2025-09-30T05:01Z [----] followers, 13.4K engagements
"Also people wonder how can China make stuff so cheap. It turns out that New Yorkers are about get a taste of this with Luckin Coffee and Chagee. They are undercutting Starbucks and if you go to those tea places you see the same sort of Chinese process engineering that"
X Link 2026-01-23T02:47Z [----] followers, 80.7K engagements
"@NewLeftEViews 1) Yes. You do what the US did to trigger the rise of Asia. You have China sell capital goods to Africa but have high trade barriers to promote local industrialization. 2) Investment in capital and technology. If you look at things like Luckin Coffee you see how tech vastly"
X Link 2026-01-24T07:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JesusFerna7026 The problem that I have with this and other neoclassical growth models is that they assume that TFP is an independent variable and they don't take into account that increased capital intensity is also spending on technology"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It is likely unintentional but all of the interviews from Western defense people saying what a great guy Zhang Youxia was is just making Xi look good and Zhang look bad. I mean just imagine how people in the US would react if the Chinese military talked about how much they"
X Link 2026-01-27T19:38Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements
"The other thing is that telling most people in the West that the Chinese economy is in a doom loop because of deflation is going to result in a "what the hell" reaction. The Chinese economy does have problems but I honestly believe https://www.wsj.com/world/china/deflation-doom-loop-china-economy-25b0938ast=mkeYm3 https://www.wsj.com/world/china/deflation-doom-loop-china-economy-25b0938ast=mkeYm3"
X Link 2026-01-29T10:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Also the lower the costs are the more people I can hire. Finally deflation helps push people to start their own companies. If you are making $$$$$ and spending $$$$$ then you aren't going to take any risks. If it turns out that you have $$$ in the bank and it just takes $"
X Link 2026-01-30T11:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@iwelsh super low cost place in the US. Say Mississippi or West Virginia. The trouble is that the protectionists would love this but this kills the national security hawks"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"So if I had a graduate student the thing that I would have them to is to 1) try to correlate trade data with different currencies with respect to CNY 2) split this up into time sequences to look at the correlations especially with various COVID events Also the thing that It would help if my critics accurately represented my thinking -- What I actually believe is that the pace of China's export volume growth is influenced by the level of the RMB . 1/3 It would help if my critics accurately represented my thinking -- What I actually believe is that the pace of China's export volume growth is"
X Link 2026-01-31T06:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I would be interested in getting is the elasticity. So my gut says that if you move the exchange rate by 10% you will move the net exports by about 10% but that means that exchange rates is not going to fix the EU/China trade deficit"
X Link 2026-01-31T06:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is a good summary of the standard Western view of the Chinese economy. It's is totally wrong. So what happened over the last few years is that people figured out that it was a bad idea for people to poor more and more money into real estate. This is scary because it hints the old China playbook is breaking. For more than two decades the global economy ran on a simple loop where China built relentlessly China absorbed commodities the rest of the world sold into that demand and everyone agreed not to ask too many This is scary because it hints the old China playbook is breaking. For more"
X Link 2026-02-01T12:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"new industries. So the thing is that all of this takes a few years to set up. So for a few years China was parking its money into cash but you have a lot of rich people that want higher yields. So they want to invest in tech. The issue is that people don't know how this"
X Link 2026-02-01T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"will work. The way that I thought it would work in [----] was that the cash would go from China to Hong Kong to Silicon Valley and then would go through the US VC firms and investment banks and then go back to China"
X Link 2026-02-01T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I have to get obnoxious here at the very low level of China coverage in the US. Xi has not made any statements about the USD/CNY rate or anything about CNY being the reserve currency. What Xi has said is much more interesting. Easy enough for China to have a strong currency -- just continue with current crawling appreciation against the dollar . 1/ https://t.co/uqnJFAczT9 Easy enough for China to have a strong currency -- just continue with current crawling appreciation against the dollar . 1/ https://t.co/uqnJFAczT9"
X Link 2026-02-02T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Strongly disagree. So the issues are 1) If I am right then this won't change trade surplus by much. The Chinese trade surplus will go down by 10-20% per year but it will still go up. 2) Once you appreciate the CNY then China can then buy massive amounts of assets in US/EU Don't think either the EU or the US would object to a stronger yuan -- so the ball really in in China's hands. Fix the yuan stronger and it will be stronger . Don't think either the EU or the US would object to a stronger yuan -- so the ball really in in China's hands. Fix the yuan stronger and it will be stronger "
X Link 2026-02-02T02:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So first of all capital controls involve conversions between (onshore CNY) and foreign currency. There are no capital controls on foreign currency moving in and out of Mainland China. Second there are two types of Chinese currency. Onshore CNY and offshore CNH. Offshore"
X Link 2026-02-02T10:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Chinese yuan (i.e. CNH) is not subject to capital controls"
X Link 2026-02-02T10:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Okay. Getting annoyed here 1) most of Xi's speech wasn't about the CNY becoming reserve currency 2) even the people that are commenting on CNY becoming reserve currency are getting it wrong. There is this belief that CNY cannot become reserve currency without lifting"
X Link 2026-02-03T02:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"One thing that I need to set up is a counter-blog that argues that this is all wrong. The big smoking gun is that you can look at the financial reports of the big banks and you can see that they aren't using their balance sheet for policy intervention. A new blog on China's hidden fx intervention which reached staggering scale in December [----] 1/ https://t.co/3z7J26O8bc A new blog on China's hidden fx intervention which reached staggering scale in December [----] 1/ https://t.co/3z7J26O8bc"
X Link 2026-02-03T02:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"And the problem with all of this is that if you look at the balance sheets of the banks it becomes pretty obvious that most of the foreign exchange is held by depositors and what you are seeing are Chinese depositors reacting to market conditions. It is quite clear that state bank purchases (and in 23/ early [--] sales) of fx have replaced PBOC purchases and sales and the core technique China uses to manage the band around the daily fx -- i.e. settlement looks like an intervention variable 2/ https://t.co/zJrwYVL0oY It is quite clear that state bank purchases (and in 23/ early [--] sales) of fx"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:04Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements
"charge of those trillions of dollars of foreign exchange. Who tells them to pay me and how does that cash get to my startup Answer. It doesn't. So basically you have to have this new system in which someone says "hey I've got some foreign exchange lets use it to pay"
X Link 2026-02-04T04:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"this joequant guy". So my thesis is that a lot of the trillions in foreign exchange is not under the control of the Chinese state but under the control of people like the guy that has invested in my startup or the other guy that I am having dinner tonight with"
X Link 2026-02-04T04:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@PPGMacro You can look at the balance sheets for the banks but the big one would be loans to Chinese corporates for overseas operations. So on the one hand the companies that make dollars are non-state exporters. The companies that need dollars are big Chinese state-owned"
X Link 2026-02-04T05:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@PPGMacro enterprises. Think PetroChina doing a oil field in Angola. One thing about banks in China is that while onshore CNY is impressively securitized the type of thing that China wants to invest in are not. So the banks have to give directly loans"
X Link 2026-02-04T05:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Even when he is obviously stabbing them in the back. The thing about Trump is that he respects strength. If he punches you then you had better punch him back. He threatens you. You threaten him. That establishes who has real power"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Now it turns out that a lot of the China haters are absolutely dependent on Trump so if they say bad things about him he remembers. The thing about Trump is that he hates people that cross him even if you agree with him. Look at Marjorie Taylor Greene"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is a lie. No nicer way of putting it. So I went in rednote looking for recent pictures of the GZ train station and I found some documentaries about an incident in [----]. 🚨Guangzhou Train Station [----] vs [----]. Same station. Same season. Completely different China. This is what economic decline looks like no narration needed. https://t.co/eovdh1GfdV 🚨Guangzhou Train Station [----] vs [----]. Same station. Same season. Completely different China. This is what economic decline looks like no narration needed. https://t.co/eovdh1GfdV"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:29Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements
"I know several groups that have tried to create a gold backed token but it has never worked. Scott Bessent admitted he has heard rumors that China is working on a gold-backed token to be used as an alternative to the U.S. dollar for international payments and reserves. He gave no indication that he believes the rumor is false. If its true he should be very concerned. Scott Bessent admitted he has heard rumors that China is working on a gold-backed token to be used as an alternative to the U.S. dollar for international payments and reserves. He gave no indication that he believes the rumor is"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The basic problem is how do you fund the token If you so stablecoins you can get interest on the float. With gold you can't do that. What's worse is that once you have a gold token you make more money if you cheat. Once everyone uses your token you start to not keep gold"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Lumpenpancakes And Costco is a big hit in Shenzhen. What is fascinating is that Walmart China is very different from Walmart US but they made Costco the same"
X Link 2026-02-06T06:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The trouble with Bloomberg is that its behind a paywall but the issue here is that Trump's approach to China is Richard Nixon's. "Trumps threat to appropriate Greenland produced a pointless counterproductive rift in the transatlantic alliance.the more the US focuses on rogue states the less bandwidth there is for great-power rivals: The CSG .now menacing Iran was pulled from the South China Sea." "Trumps threat to appropriate Greenland produced a pointless counterproductive rift in the transatlantic alliance.the more the US focuses on rogue states the less bandwidth there is for great-power"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Also I will be wandering around @consensus_hk next week. It looks like it is going to be a blast. I do try to keep a distance between business and politics but sometimes these two worlds collide. So one thing I've been pointing out is that the China haters are X are liars"
X Link 2026-02-07T03:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And thing nice thing about trade shows is that you can come to Hong Kong or head up to Shenzhen and see for yourself. At that point you can compare what you see with what I am saying and what they are saying and then you can see who is telling the truth"
X Link 2026-02-07T03:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So one reason I've become a China maxxer is that it turns out that the people in Beijing are really interested in solving problems whereas people in Washington aren't. So if Chinese trade policy are causing issues in Africa then people in Beijing are more than willing to Well quite. I've been pointing out that not only might the current surplus be directly crowding out industrial production and innovation in some places but the fact the global goods surplus is now mostly in East Asia and Europe who together have also used up the carbon budget Well quite. I've been pointing out that not only"
X Link 2026-02-07T03:28Z [----] followers, 73K engagements
"@jekavanagh It is not "can't" but "won't". The KMT-TPP opposition believes that more defense spending is just throwing good money after bad and that Taiwan should start talks with Beijing under [--] consensus"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I do and pretty much anyone that has visited China does. Things feel like it is growing at [--] percent GDP and people are kind of annoyed because it used to grow at [--] percent :-) :-) :-) Does anyone still believe in the CCPs GDP numbers Does anyone still believe in the CCPs GDP numbers"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"One reason I think the Starbucks model isn't working that well in China is that you had this huge amount of real estate from the property boom. So rather than hang out in Starbucks you can find pretty cheap cowork space and then These mofos trying their hardest to get me to drink their coffee because lots of the serious coffee for connoisseurs shops in China are not configured to be cozy work spaces 😠These mofos trying their hardest to get me to drink their coffee because lots of the serious coffee for connoisseurs shops in China are not configured to be cozy work spaces ðŸ˜"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"pick up your Luckin Coffee on the way to your office"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is why you absolutely have to be here on the ground because otherwise you have absolutely no idea what is happening. So it turns out that the defacto rule in Feb [----] views crypto as foreign exchange. Wow a very harsh ban on all cryptocurrencies (except for the official one). Cannot even provide data or consultancy related to them. So HK is still a huge loophole. Will it be kept open Wow a very harsh ban on all cryptocurrencies (except for the official one). Cannot even provide data or consultancy related to them. So HK is still a huge loophole. Will it be kept open"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So in fact you can do OTC in Shenzhen as long as you trade from USD/HKD. Moving RMB to crypto directly in Mainland China is off limits"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ojblanchard1 Also people don't buy bitcoin in hope of capital gains. People buy bitcoin because it is a nice store of value and easier to move around than gold"
X Link 2026-02-07T05:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Some random thoughts on the bitcoin crash especially with @TheOtherParker_ I think he is making things too complicated. Most hedge funds in Hong Kong don't do messy options strategies and those that do usually know what they are doing. Part of the problem is that the SEC"
X Link 2026-02-07T06:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"reports do list hedge funds but if you have a family office or individual with a lot of bitcoin holding then its not going to be broken out in the 13-F reports. Also the HK bitcoin sphere isn't that large so if a big hedge fund failed news would travel"
X Link 2026-02-07T06:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"What seems to make more sense to me is that someone with a lot of IBIT holdings panicked and ordered their broker to sell shares and that just triggered a meltdown. The two things that are "weird" are that 1) the meltdown happened after hours in HK and 2) you have this slow"
X Link 2026-02-07T06:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"trend downward. So my best guess is that someone in HK (not necessarily a hedge fund) lost a ton of money in silver put a ton of orders to sell IBIT and this pushed everything down"
X Link 2026-02-07T06:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@daniel_mcdowell Well its now a 70k question. My answer is that you should buy bitcoin with money that you assume will be lost. Put X money into bitcoin assume that money is gone and come back a few years later"
X Link 2026-02-07T06:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What is bizarre is that no one in China really cares about "winning against the United States." The goal of the Chinese govt is to ensure national security and economic prosperity of China how the US does is irrelevant. The best way to win against the U.S. isnt to go to war but to demonstrate their faith in their system through its works. China succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. Whether WWIII happens or not it doesnt matter; China already won the war that matters. The spiritual one. The best way to win against the U.S. isnt to go to war but to demonstrate their faith in their system"
X Link 2026-02-07T07:29Z [----] followers, 27.2K engagements
"Also about the PBC notice on cryptocurrencies and RWA. Same old. Same old"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I like reposting think tank nonsense because it is becoming more and more unhinged. If the PRC ever goes to war over Taiwan it is because it sees a life or death situation and so it will not stop until it either achieve victory or is forced into total defeat and that means Why should #US policymakers care about Chinas domestic stability in a #Taiwan conflict Learn more in our latest #ChinaGlobalPodcast episode with @BonnieGlaser feat. @SheenaGreitens and Jake Rinaldi New episode out now 👇https://t.co/83RyMEGub2 Why should #US policymakers care about Chinas domestic stability in a #Taiwan"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"nuclear war. This stuff is now pretty obvious to everyone that spends five minutes thinking about the situation and the only people that listen to this nonsense are people that are so desperate or delusional that they don't see reality"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Look. Trump is in the process of throwing Taiwan under the bus. Anyone with half a brain understands that the US cannot win a war against the PRC over Taiwan and you can just take a look at Ukraine to see what a disaster this is. All of the lies people are talking about"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So about the messaging from People's Bank of China. One reason you just have to be in Hong Kong if you are doing tokenization is that you figure out these notices before they go out. So one thing about these notices is that it matters 1) who is giving the notice and 2)"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"what exactly they are saying no with. So for 1) this is given by the People's Bank of China so that's where this is coming from and 2) a notice will say NO NO NO NO and then you read the list and then you realize that they didn't say you couldn't do X Y and Z"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So it is unlawful for a mainland entity to set up a cryptocurrency business. Is it unlawful for someone to own cryptocurrencies didn't mention that. So offshore entities can't provide cryptocurrencies to mainland companies. Okay what about mainland companies providing"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And the fact that Trump is planning to go to Beijing is a clear sign that he is throwing you under the bus. Now I am enjoying watching you squirm. The other thing is that the Taiwan legislature is blocking purchases of weapons so it works out well for everyone. This is one more reason why Trump should not go to China: Beijing is trying to leverage the visit by threatening to not permit it if the U.S. sells Taiwan weapons it needs. This is one more reason why Trump should not go to China: Beijing is trying to leverage the visit by threatening to not permit it if the U.S. sells Taiwan weapons"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@szewailaw_lis Yeah and then you go to Huaqiangbei get a bunch of parts and then cook up something crazy"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ligma__sigma @szewailaw_lis You can switch 50k USD per year in foreign currency. If you want more then there are money brokers in Hong Kong that can switch more. Pollution is not a huge issue because of EVs"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@EvgenyGaevoy Also I can tell you that here in Hong Kong there are no juicy rumors floating around. One reason that makes me think that it's not HK is the time zones. It looks more like Middle East"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@FranklinBi This just seems too complicated for the type of trades that happen in Hong Kong. The type of trade that happens in HK is some rich guy wants Bitcoin and you buy it for him and just manage it"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@blamblamtheman @KQ992017 But this has nothing to do with lawyers. In fact you can argue that too many lawyers drive up the cost of commerce and reduce legal certainty"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@blamblamtheman @KQ992017 And it turns out that most actual international business transactions don't involve threats of lawsuits. Basically you end up creating trust networks and use guarantors"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"So I am getting grumpy because Western media is just incompetent at covering Chinese finance and are missing some important connections. I've been arguing with @Brad_Sester in which I argue that Mainland Chinese entities have massive amounts of bank deposits which are ready to"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"get deployed. So one thing that Western media is missing is how this works with crypto. The big issue is that under Chinese law Mainland stuff is regulated by the People's Bank of China. Hong Kong stuff is regulated by the SFC and HKMA but what happens if you have"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"something cross-border. Mainland company has money in Hong Kong. At this point PBC SFC and HKMA have to have a meeting to decide what to do. So the big thing that happened on Friday is that PBC issued rules about what Mainland Chinese entities are allowed to do overseas"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"(i.e. in Hong Kong). First of all no stablecoins. So PBC has decided that Mainland Chinese entities will not be able to use their bank deposits to create stablecoins. So that's a flat no. With RWA's the field is more open. So instant of a red light there is a yellow"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"light. The general rule is that a mainland business won't be able to use RWA's to conduct businesses that they weren't able to do before"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MarkSimonHK @POTUS @SecScottBessent Birds of a feather. The old Chinese economy is dying but they figured this out a decade ago so people are moving into the new Chinese economy. Real estate is an absolute crap show but that was intentional"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Speaking of which one funny question is that since people say that Chinese civilization is [----] years old in [----] did they say that Chinese civilization was [----] years old two thousand years ago. In fact they did. The traditional timeline for Chinese civilization How old is Chinese civilisation A scholar says it really dates back [----] years https://t.co/4jKsjnV7sv How old is Chinese civilisation A scholar says it really dates back [----] years https://t.co/4jKsjnV7sv"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"was put together in the Han dynasty and at the time they calculated that it was [----] years from the start of Chinese civilization. Also it is fun to compare early Chinese history with the way that the Romans the Greeks and Jews talk about their early history"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@GaryHaubold @robin_j_brooks Except this is post hoc prompter hoc. If you look at the numbers China was going to start exporting like crazy with or without US tariffs"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TiltFolio @robin_j_brooks The global south. Three to four billion people. Lots of rich Africans ready to buy Chinese goods. Oh the Africans aren't rich Well lets make them rich"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So you have people in bubbles and there was someone that was saying that they and their friends are all seeing their businesses in Mainland China die off. And that is happening. About a decade ago the Chinese govt figured out that the old economy was dead and so for"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"China to prosper it had to move to a new economy which it has done. Now people might argue that I have an unusually optimistic view of the Chinese economy because I am living in the new economy. I mean I have a Ph.D. in astrophysics and worked at an investment bank"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Also there was a China hater that was mentioning that China is a dead economy because neither he nor his friends see any business deals in China. The possibility that anyone that is trying to make money in China isn't talking to them didn't seem to occur to him"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The idea that the Chinese economy is falling apart is just flatly inconsistent with the $1.2 trillion trade surplus because economies that are falling apart just don't generate huge trade surpluses. So at this point people are talking this nonsense about an unbalanced"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@_samantha_joy Giving a toddler a baby book has benefits just beyond reading. Having a toddler hold a book that belongs to them gets them used to the world of books. Also the trouble with giving toddlers adult books is that toddlers will want to rip things up and it turns out that giving"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@_samantha_joy a toddler a book that they will end up drawing crayons and ripping up without being the end of the world just puts them into this world. One reason you want to get toddlers holding paper is that it gets them out of the world of tablets"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@_samantha_joy Also a lot of the purpose of toys is so that the child can start copying adult things. That's why dolls are useful. You don't want to let a [--] year old take care of an infant but giving a kid a doll lets them start copying you. Same with books"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan Also in the Hong Kong bitcoin world. 2) Is kind of implausible to me because once a fund goes under its clients are going to be screaming bloody murder and once a fund looks shaky the employees are going to be interviewing at other funds. All the rich people know each other"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan 4) Yeah but if you are an Asian firm that just went bust then you'd likely dump everything at the start of trading but the pattern you saw was a slow exponential drop. The timing suggests that it is more likely that it came out of Dubai"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan One thing about HK is that one reason word travels fast is that the rich people in Hong Kong come from very different groups and it's pretty much impossible for any one group to keep everyone from talking. This is much less true of SG and not the case at all for Dubai"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan The other thing that makes me think Middle East is that on the day after bitcoin went down and then back up and this trough corresponds to Middle East trading times and not HK"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan Also (and would be interested in views from other people in HK). Most people in HK just don't do crazy option stuff. If you can figure out how to move large amounts of money from Mainland China to buy bitcoin you can make money just doing that. There are people that"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan do crazy option stuff but for the most part these people know what they are doing and so I don't see them getting rekt"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan One other thing is that just because you have a lot of HK hedge funds listed as IBIT shareholders doesn't mean that this is where most of the money is. The thing is that HK hedge funds have no reason to hide their existence and being listed as a "big holder" of IBIT gives"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@JonnieKing @dgt10011 Writing from Hong Kong. The new PBC regulations are aimed at stablecoins and RWA's and didn't hit bitcoin and there was nothing in the regs that people didn't expect"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheOtherParker_ @DoveyWan The thing is that if bitcoin stabilizes at 70k or goes up its possible that the there is no body. I can imagine a situation where a hedge fund desperately tries to liquidate to meet its margin calls and manages to survive or dies off quietly in a few weeks"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MarkSimonHK Yes and the nice thing about the Chinese govt is that they've set up the rules so that Alibaba can't kill SME's the way that Amazon does. What Amazon does is to force SME's to give them their data then just kill small companies and the pay workers crap wages"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AngelicaOung @fbermingham Also there are more issues involved than just China. The important thing is that it causes Trump to put some pressure on Japan to cool down. One thing about expressing displeasure is that if you do nothing then that just gives people a signal to push things further"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AngelicaOung @MarkSimonHK @POTUS @SecScottBessent Or MIC2025. Or popping the housing bubble. Or moving to renewables. Or massive expansion in public education. Or high speed rail. And massive investment in LED production :-) :-) https://www.youtube.com/watchv=Qc7HmhrgTuQ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=Qc7HmhrgTuQ"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@jeffjohnroberts @dgt10011 @TheOtherParker_ Yeah but @TheOtherParker would be the first to tell you that he is just guessing and we've had a nice conversation about this theory. Right now I am of the opinion that the blowup didn't start in Hong Kong because 1) HK funds generally don't do crazy options trades and"
X Link 2026-02-08T14:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"One other thing is that this shows that Eric is an incompetent manager at so many levels. Any competent manager would have gotten his team to ignore any trades and any decent IT system would allow the manager to lock out the terminal. Every finance person needs to watch this episode from season [--] of Industry: https://t.co/vaJ1tRfme7 Every finance person needs to watch this episode from season [--] of Industry: https://t.co/vaJ1tRfme7"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@thegreatola Actually that's the joke. The producers obviously know that Rishi is an absolutely terrible trader and this ends up biting both him and Pierpoint"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AJ_MultiChain @thegreatola Exactly. Also there was no risk team which explains why everything blew up in the next few episodes"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheOtherParker_ Do you have a name in mind The thing is that the names in the 13-F just don't strike me as people that are running weird strategies. The people that are running weird strategies wouldn't be holding ibit directly but would doing it through prime broker"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheOtherParker_ In fact I do have some names in mind (and they aren't the ones in the filings) so I have a list of people I want to talk to at Consensus"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@niubi He won't. The whole point of making a big deal over Taiwan is to put Takachi and Trump on notice that PRC won't back down regardless of Japanese politics"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@niubi It really depends if Takachi says something about Taiwan"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@kenmoriyasu I don't think that was China's strategy. It's 1) make sure the US keeps Trump under control and 2) make it clear to whoever is in charge in Tokyo that bringing up Taiwan has consequences"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"One thing that people are missing about the Zhang Youxia situation is that it reorganizes the command structure of the Chinese military to match that of the United States and pretty much every other nation. In the US POTUS is the command-in-chief of the military"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Also about the Japanese elections. The goal of Beijing was never to remove Takaichi because that's out of Beijing's control. It's to put whoever the Prime Minister of Japan is that the PRC absolutely will not back down on Taiwan and more importantly to make it clear to the US"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"and specifically Donald Trump that Beijing will not back down on Taiwan and is willing to go to war over this issue. Once you understand that this is an issue over which Beijing will go to war over then the idea of "deterrence" won't work because nothing will deter"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Beijing from war if Taiwan goes totally independent. At this point Trump and Takaichi can decide what to do and what Trump does is more important than what Takaichi does. I think Beijing's assessment is that what happens in Tokyo matters less than getting Trump"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So if you are a private owner of a small factory or startup and you are "working" (i.e. you are actually managing things) this is an example of "worker ownership" and considered a good thing. So for me I am busy running the startup and so I am a "worker""
X Link 2026-02-09T02:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And if I make a ton of money this is good. It turns out that most of my investors are people that are also "workers". Someone starts a business makes money running the business has extra money to invest"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"filler once can express that there is some deep thinking going on. Yeah. Right. Also the there is something about linguistic registers. You can emphasize that one part of the message was carefully thought out and edited and more formal. So this just shows"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"how subtle communications can be. Yeah. I think that's right. You think"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@monkey_luffy @james_riney Part of it is that it fits the narrative of heroic fighter against China. In fact my guess is that Takaichi is going to end up with your standard right wing LDP policy toward China and is likely to soft pedal the Taiwan issue"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes but NOT taking on Takaichi would have made things worse. If PRC had just said nothing Takaichi would have screamed about how they made Beijing beg and you still would have had a landslide victory. Tokyo is at least on notice that bringing up Taiwan will huge win for japan pm takaichi in elections today. china taking her on only made her more popular. huge win for japan pm takaichi in elections today. china taking her on only made her more popular"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"cause problems whereas if Beijing had done nothing this would have been seen as a "victory" for deterence and Takaichi would be under pressure to push things even further. One problem with the Taiwan statements was that they were made after something of a honeymoon"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I think Beijing's hope is that Takaichi will focus on economic issues and not bring up Taiwan but the purpose of the strong reaction is to make it clear the consequences if she didn't do that. Also the other thing is that this kind of forced Trump to take a side"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Japan was very dissatisfied at the lack of support from Donald Trump and as long as Trump doesn't back Japan in any statements about Taiwan there isn't much that Takaichi can do"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Actually no. The consensus among us wumao's is that Beijing made its point. As long as Takaichi doesn't mention Taiwan then things will calm down. If Takaichi does mention on Taiwan then things will get bumpy. One thing that calms things down is that Trump seems to be I think there will be tons of wumaos and shills crying and threat of nuclear bombing of Japan tomorrow. Be sure to send us any interesting comments https://t.co/2Mu8UWA1Gj I think there will be tons of wumaos and shills crying and threat of nuclear bombing of Japan tomorrow. Be sure to send us any interesting comments"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"having a "good relationship with Xi" and as long as that exists then it doesn't matter what Takaichi wants since Trump will order her to STFU. The thing is that it was not a mistake for Beijing to scream at Takaichi because if Beijing didn't the narrative would be that"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Beijing is weak and she would have gotten a landslide anyone. One thing that I find interesting about the "China bashers" is that they can only see things in the framework of "regime change." As long as Japan doesn't interfere in Chinese internal affairs no one cares who"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"the Japanese elect and if it turns out that Takaichi keeps quiet on Taiwan. We are all good. The political situation is that there are anti-China people in the LDP and they are trying to cooperate with neocons in the US. How much Takaichi personally supports the anti-China"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"group and how much this is just political pandering I have no idea but it doesn't matter. The big thing that Beijing is focused on is Trump because Trump can order Takaichi to STFU. One thing about Takaichi is that if her main goal is economic she has to at some point"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TGTM_Official So I've just posted my wumao thoughts. The thing is important is that Beijing cares about policies and not people. I don't expect Takaichi to back track on her statements of Taiwan but the question is whether she pushes things further and that is her call"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Also putting aside the issue of China I am fascinated by Takaichi's economic program because I don't know whether or not it will work or not. The thing is that she now has a tremendous amount of political capital and so she can do some unpopular things. Both Trump and Takaichi came to power with mandates conditioned on the resurgence of a new right-wing populism shaped by cost-of-living and immigration concerns. Both project a no-nonsense anti-establishment persona as their primary form of interfacing with the electorate. Both https://t.co/YYfXSjbgXM Both Trump and Takaichi came to power with"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The hope that us wumaos have is that Takaichi will figure out that talking about Taiwan is just not going to help her so that she STFU about Taiwan and then focuses on fixing the Japanese economy. The dilemma for China is that China would actually like to help"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NewshamGrant It's not pretextual. The thing is that Beijing tries not to hold personal grudges and there is no reason for Beijing to attack her. Beijing's reaction was about the actual statement which she could have answered in a dozen different ways"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NewshamGrant The worry from Beijing is that Takaichi is just a staking horse and that this was a trial balloon to test Beijing's reaction to convince people in DC to take more pro-Taiwan position but Trump seems to have reassured Xi that this is not what is going on"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"No. Whenever someone makes a statement about Taiwan you can expect PRC to go ballistic and part of the reason it does so is to prevent salami slicing. You make a lot of little steps that are common sense. Thanks for pointing that out. With China everything is pretextual. Her commonsensical comment about Taiwan was just an excuse to attack her. The dietmember who asked her the question has family business in China and is a PRC proxy. She has not backed down. NBC News needs to do Thanks for pointing that out. With China everything is pretextual. Her commonsensical comment about Taiwan was just"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"And pretty soon something really has changed. The point that Beijing wants to make is that it is willing to go "all the way" with Taiwan and as long as people understand that this is the situation we will be fine"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I try to be interesting. Being an wumao/CCP-pinko symp is part of my identity but there are parts of me that don't fit into that category and I am genuinely fascinated in seeing of Takainomoics will work or not. Hints from Takiaichi and Katayama suggest theyre considering funding the consumption tax cut on food via the ESF (FX reserves). I speculated about this possibility in a note to clients over a month ago. Its a reasonable idea. The tax cut costs $32bn. The ESF holds $1.3T. Hints from Takiaichi and Katayama suggest theyre considering funding the consumption tax cut on food via the ESF"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is pretty wrong. One mistake that people make is to assume that all of us wu-mao pinko commies get our marching orders from party central. In fact we do think for ourselves which means that we will disagree with each other and with the official party line. 8th February [----] Hu Xijin views on Japanese [----] election. How to read Hu Xijin correctly: He is not a random nationalist uncle. He is a signal amplifier for how Chinas system wants events to be framed. When Hu says China wins it usually doesnt mean China improved. It https://t.co/tCo3YO0DdC 8th February [----] Hu Xijin views on"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Just to give an example. I am an industrial maximalist and I think that the current economic policies might over emphasize consumption. I would have preferred if the PBoC were more permissive with stablecoin. Most interestingly outside of China issues I like Takaichi"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I'd be a Takaichi fan if she kept her mouth shut about Taiwan since her economic policies seems to be at least interesting"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@vertex_oi @gaijinthoughts Also I think there would be some resistance within the LDP itself"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@gaijinthoughts Which is interesting because China is trying to welcome high skill immigrants. One reason Hong Kong is interesting is it's a test case in assimilation of people into China"
X Link 2026-02-09T05:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Euunul No that is not true. There is no official office of commander in chief and it is unclear constitutional who is in command of the military. This is a problem"
X Link 2026-02-09T06:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MrBig2024 @MabelMatsumoto @KnowBothSides @AngelicaOung The trouble is that fear fails if it goes into anger. I think Beijing has already made its point"
X Link 2026-02-09T09:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Brad_Setser @vshih2 No. If I can figure out what is going on I bet most people in Hong Kong finance know where the money is and certainly Beijing does. One thing I find fascinating is that when you blogged about Taiwan the CBC immediately responded"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Brad_Setser @vshih2 Whereas PBC has been ignoring you. The only person that's been interested in commenting on your stuff is me and I am a nobody. But even I know where some of the bodies are buried because I buried some of them"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@vshih2 @Brad_Setser I am not entirely sure that the People's Bank of China knows where all of the money is. However the Ministry of State Security and the CCP Central Disciplinary Inspection Commission certainly do"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@vshih2 @Brad_Setser For that matter the main reason that Xi ended up on top was that he figured out where all the money was. The big battles in the 2010's was whether the ton of money that belonged to Chinese and Russian oligarchs would be mobilized by BRICS or by the West. Putin and Xi won"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@farmerrf @LukaszRachel Yes. For the longest time people assumed that Chinese official statistics were crap and so people used alternative numbers that had lower growth. The issue is that it's starting to be obvious that the official numbers were accurate"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@farmerrf @LukaszRachel Essentially if Madisson-Wu was right then Keir Starmer would not have just gone to Beijing begging for money"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Loving how things are changing. I happen to think that Takaichi is being provocative and Japan is to blame for tensions. It's good that more and more people seem to agree with me. One problem that separates me from the China haters. Journalists writing about Japan: stop saying that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's standing up to China is "provocative" or "hard-line." You're implying that leaders the world over should yield to China and blaming Japan for Sino-Japanese tensions. https://t.co/mqeA4Mp16W Journalists writing about Japan: stop saying that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Is that even if I don't agree with you I can see how you see the world and why you see it that way. The China haters tend to view their world view as the one truth so if you see the world a different way you are a bad person"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So he keeps getting this wrong by assuming that the Chinese media landscape is just this one unified system. So the first thing that you want to see is the official line and for that you go to the foreign policy spokesman and presents the official position which is pretty Less than [--] hours after Takaichi Sanae won the election Chinese media is already reacting. The usual language showed up almost immediately. Japan is returning to militarism. Japan is becoming a threat again. The framing was familiar and predictable. What stood out more was https://t.co/gnQIjkQtBA Less than [--] hours after"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"simply because no instructions have been given on how to handle that. Now if a lot of people get angry then they will have a meeting to decide what to do and if a lot of people are angry they will likely shut down the discussion"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So the point here is that the interaction between officials and social media is messy. What is not a good idea is to take social media and then use that to assume things about official attitudes. If you want to know the official position of the Chinese govt just go to"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@gdp1985 @ZiadMDaoud Actually it's pretty simple. If Trump wants to spend [---] trillion/year USD to build a military to fight China it's kind of stupid for China to hand him the cash"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I mean surely there must be someone at CFR or in DC that can answer these questions. I mean IMF World Bank Are they this clueless. Shudder. Anyway if you want to know where the banks store their treasuries. It's mostly UK. If you look at the UK TIC"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"numbers there is this huge increase in UK holdings of US Treasuries since [----]. The money goes through Hong Kong and ends up in UK investment banks"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Why__Knot PRC does what it does to make it very clear to everyone that it disagrees"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@AngelicaOung @shetlerjones Right now the situation is stable. Beijing's reaction to Takaichi's election was muted. For the situation to spin out of control the US would have the back Japan and Trump seems to not be interested"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Why__Knot Not true. Beijing accepts international law. You might not agree with its arguments but they exist. All this nonsense hurts your case. If you argue that PRC rejects international law then you lose credibility once people find out that they have legal arguments"
X Link 2026-02-10T05:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@NewLeftEViews The system is designed this way. Suppose you are the dictator of Elbonia. It looks bad if someone looks at the stats and finds out that Elbonia has huge reserves"
X Link 2026-02-10T05:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NewLeftEViews So the system is designed to hide this. At first in the early 2010s this channel was used by rich Chinese to hide money from Xi. But after Huawei the rich Chinese are now more afraid of the US than China taking their cash"
X Link 2026-02-10T05:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NewLeftEViews The old joke is you use Singapore to hide money from the Chinese govt whereas you use Hong Kong to hide money for the Chinese govt"
X Link 2026-02-10T06:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Why__Knot No it doesn't. The argument against Taiwan being independent is that facts on the ground don't confer sovereignty. The PRC takes the position that it never agreed to binding arbitration and hence the panel is an illegal panel"
X Link 2026-02-10T06:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@NewLeftEViews This is a long standing disagreement I have with @Brad_Setser. My position is that over the last few years China has reduced the role of the central bank in exchange management"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DoomLog_ @Brad_Setser Because it's not news. If you are at the desk of any investment bank you will see orders from Chinese banks and corporates flowing through Hong Kong to London. Not only can you not move hundreds of billions of dollars with no one noticing you can't move it without everyone"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@getpy @Brad_Setser Actually I think that China may be going to zero Treasuries. Instead of investing in US Treasuries China would develop an offshore money market by which China's USD trade surplus would be going to funding Chinese corporates doing overseas projects"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@yieldsearcher And then the August [----] gold confiscation. So to stabilize the currency Chiang ordered the seizure of gold for paper money which soon inflated. This lost Chiang the support of merchants"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Why__Knot You are irrationally ignoring the existence of legal arguments. I am not asking you to agree with the PRCs legal arguments merely acknowledge they exist. In any case even if you don't others will see the facts that PRC cares more about int law than the US"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Why__Knot Sovereignty of Taiwan was transferred to the Republic of China by the Instrument of Surrender of Japan and the People's Republic China is the successor state of the ROC and the sole legitimate govt of China"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Why__Knot You can find counterarguments based on either the right of self determination or invoking the treaty of San Francisco. My point is not that the PRC's argument is correct but that exists. In fact since I am KMT I don't agree with the PRC"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Why__Knot I take the view that sovereignty of Taiwan was transferred to China in [----]. There is one China but that China is in a state of civil war which should be resolved by discussions between the rival govts. I support the Republic of China"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Why__Knot My view (which is the view of the KMT) is Taiwan is not an independent state but is part of China which is currently in a state of civil war"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Why__Knot My belief is that the KMT-TPP can gain control of the govt on Taiwan in [----] and once and for all settle this issue that Taiwan is part of China and not an independent state"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Brad_Setser @stevehou And Belgium is Euroclear. My gut says most Chinese holdings of treasuries is in UK and Caymans and not in Euroclear/Clearstream. The stuff in UK is transactional. For Euroclear/Clearstream most of the people I imagine holding treasuries would not have accounts in Euroclear/"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@CBankingEditor and @stevehou were talking about how top people in finance have little respect or economics knowledge. This is true but it's interesting why. In finance your rank depends on how much money you make. Managers make money from social skills"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Traders make money from gut intuition from the markets. Okay what if you need a math geek. Well in that case you have money why hire a physicist/math wannabe when you can hire an MIT trained physicist like me"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So what ends up happening is that a lot of economist try to get social status through putting out lots of math models. However if you hire someone that can read math you get conversations like"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Trader: I don't understand the math but my gut says the convulsions are bullcrap Me flipping through the math: okay I understand the math and you are right the paper is bullcrap Trader: Thought so"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"big bonuses. Outside of data science and statistics work you are useless for anything that makes money. Also economists will bs you into thinking that they have some arcane knowledge. Whereas physicists will do the "explain this to me like I am five""
X Link 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""okay if the red line hits the blue line we die". So I don't get along with economists. Funny enough get along really well with anthropologists and sociologists"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is a nice scene from margin call. I never talked to the CEO but my bosses bosses boss who is an astrophysicist who left banking to start a chicken farm did https://youtu.be/7prnY2FOxnssi=TCaKBhePOY1D8Z03 https://youtu.be/7prnY2FOxnssi=TCaKBhePOY1D8Z03"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Welcome to the new world"
X Link 2026-02-11T07:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@WestsideLAGuy You are only as good as your last breakthrough. So I am desperately worried for the future of MIT and in fact all science in the United States because of budget cuts and underinvestment. Also there is the lack of access to educational opportunities. Then there is the high cost"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"At #ConsensusHK2026 and I got one of those "OMG I am in the middle of a movie" moments. So I figured I would talk about real life Industry and Margin Call. First of all as far as setting Margin Call was set in [----] and just could not happen today. There is this scene in the"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"movie where the the compliance person says "the regulators can slow us down but not stop us." well. Today they would stop you. :-) :-) One thing about Margin Call is that the people involved are pretty competent whereas the people in Industry are pretty incompetent"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And an example of competent traders in action. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=6D7KVozqRvk https://www.youtube.com/watchv=6D7KVozqRvk"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The thing about the characters in Industry is that they are characters. They are kind of based on real life but there is no way that someone that are as dysfunctional as the people in Industry would really be able to not self-destruct. The people in Margin Call are "scary"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"real" so much so that I can put names to people I know that would act in exactly the same way. It's partly because the people in Margin Call are professionals so that they are doing their job doing it well so it doesn't matter what personal drama they have"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Also I find the inaccuracies to be interesting. In the case of Industry the inaccuracies are pretty huge but they are huge in a way that I can tell that they changed the story not to get sued. For example anyone that watches season [--] should know that they are really talking"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"about cryptocurrencies but that would be "real enough to get us sued" so they make major plot changes. Also the career paths unrealistically fast. Also people are just nicer in real life than in Industry. Remember that a lot of finance involves getting people to do what"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"you want and the people that succeed tend to be very pleasant people. In fact every people that are sharks and scammers are very pleasant people. Also most people in finance have good personal relationships"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"In Industry the people are realistic and you can tell that they are trying to be nice to each other. What is interesting about Margin Call is that they get all of the big things right but they end up getting little things wrong. So the impression I get is that you had actors"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"that talked to finance people and got most of the things right. For example you wouldn't call the person with the report an analyst but you would call him a quant and he would more likely be an astrophysicist than a rocket scientist. One other thing that I like about"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Industry that is better than Margin Call probably because of budget is that they get the location shots right. The offices look real the settings also look real and that is why I got one of the "OMG I am in a movie" moments because I was in a place that looked exactly"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"like a scene from the show have a similar conversation only of course with nicer friendlier people. Also with the plots Margin Call is a slice of 2007-2008. The thing about Industry is that the plots are pretty melodramatic but real life can be weirder. I am sure that"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CBankingEditor I don't think so. I think that the big focus will be not on the stock markets but on early stage companies. Also I don't expect that Beijing will order the banks to prioritize tech. What I do expect is for Beijing to gently suggest to the state owned enterprises that they"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@AngelicaOung You get a very different picture if you look at the total population of sub-saharan Africa. It was [--] billion in [----] and expected to be close to [--] billion in [----]. Once you put that number in then you will see that the fraction of people in poverty goes down"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RambutanRed Yeah but they come up with a strategy before writing checks. If you write the checks without a strategy you'll just be giving cash to the most politically connected"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This thread explains why I am worried about the US in science and tech. Shot. chaser https://t.co/Im9hJBaljk Shot. chaser https://t.co/Im9hJBaljk"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Here is the China national strategy on AI. The thing about this doc is it makes freaking sense. I can't imagine Trump coming up with a similar doc for science strategy. https://digichina.stanford.edu/work/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/ https://digichina.stanford.edu/work/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I happen to be into competition. When I worked at bank X it made me feel good when the bank across the street were at the top of their game. Them being good kicked us into being better. One reason I am into markets is that you have companies fight each other but this"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"produces social good. In finance I happen to be in Team Hong Kong but I like the competition with Team Singapore and Team Dubai. If you win by kneecapping the other side then this isn't good for anyone"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sc_cath That's how things should work but they don't. I have almost never read an economics paper where they say okay the data doesn't fit our model completely and this is where our model is wrong. Instead of stripping out the math so you have a small set assumptions which you can"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Josh_Merfeld There is a quick way of showing that it's all bullcrap 1) have you ever seen an economist look back at wrong predictions 2) if the economists knew what they were doing why does the world suck"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@EntropyChase @sc_cath Okay as luck would have it I am going through this paper. https://x.com/i/status/2020830574651576629 The link from industrial policy to macro imbalances and from there even to societal impacts is SOOO often implied but rarely demonstrated. This looks cool. @LucaFornaro3 can you do this for "New energy" electrotech solar/wind/battery/EV please https://x.com/i/status/2020830574651576629 The link from industrial policy to macro imbalances and from there even to societal impacts is SOOO often implied but rarely demonstrated. This looks cool. @LucaFornaro3 can you do this"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@EntropyChase @sc_cath So the problem is that you have regressions at the end that supposedly confirm the findings of the paper. But the problem is that you end up making a dozen assumptions and there is no real discussion about why you made that assumption"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@EntropyChase @sc_cath Also you can get any result you want by modifying the household utility function. No discussion as to how the utility function is motivated. You end up with a model that says that Chinese households buy up foreign assets when they don't"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
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