# ![@credistick Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::20999409.png) @credistick Dan Gray

Dan Gray posts on X about investment, vcs, ipo, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::20999409/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +21%
- [--] Month [-------] +0.10%
- [--] Months [---------] +41%
- [--] Year [---------] -4.70%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::20999409/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] -13%
- [--] Months [---] +39%
- [--] Year [---] +4.20%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::20999409/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +1.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +4.20%
- [--] Months [-----] +33%
- [--] Year [-----] +104%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::20999409/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [vc firms](/list/vc-firms)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [countries](/list/countries)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 

**Social topic influence**
[investment](/topic/investment), [vcs](/topic/vcs) #2583, [ipo](/topic/ipo) #118, [money](/topic/money), [in the](/topic/in-the), [ai](/topic/ai), [if you](/topic/if-you), [fund](/topic/fund), [this is](/topic/this-is), [company](/topic/company)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@peterjwalker](/creator/undefined) [@a16z](/creator/undefined) [@russincheshire](/creator/undefined) [@bgurley](/creator/undefined) [@harrystebbings](/creator/undefined) [@tracecohen](/creator/undefined) [@benchmark](/creator/undefined) [@jefielding](/creator/undefined) [@paulg](/creator/undefined) [@arianghashghai](/creator/undefined) [@endowmenteddie](/creator/undefined) [@garethaethwy](/creator/undefined) [@deljohnsonvc](/creator/undefined) [@daveclark85](/creator/undefined) [@asheepie](/creator/undefined) [@jjsalmo](/creator/undefined) [@nialloconghaile](/creator/undefined) [@dliodoir](/creator/undefined) [@vivamjm](/creator/undefined) [@equidam](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"How the world looks when you only hang out with a16z partners"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1655590654662135813)  2023-05-08T15:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"What an investor is willing to pay for a startup gets a lot of attention but isnt particularly useful. Its a subjective view on value shaped by market perspective with no visibility on the associated terms. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1673450119188946946)  2023-06-26T21:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If you want to talk about valuation in a practical manner for pitching investments or tracking fund performance you want a view on fair value. Objective explainable. Its not necessarily how you should price investments but its a good starting point. 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1673451167253135365)  2023-06-26T22:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@danshipper @tylertringas I think capital as a bottleneck was true up until the early 2010s but it quickly became capital as a weapon. VC started to try and manufacture winners which was never going to end well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1680644270418436098)  2023-07-16T18:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@lessin The modelable approach might havemade the asset class approachable for more institutional money but in reality that is just a work-around for the actual problem: the lack of standards transparency and accountability in VC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1684565321628389377)  2023-07-27T14:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@lessin i.e. courting more conservative capital sources by pretending that there are forecastable outcomes for VC rather than addressing the real need of transparent and practical fund performance metrics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1684566284862898179)  2023-07-27T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Past performance is not indicative of future results. Once you accept that even the biggest names in VC can (and do) lose their way track record becomes more obviously meaningless. Firms that perform well know that yesterday is irrelevant. Trends are poison momentum is death"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1687022429527252993)  2023-08-03T08:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"So how do you separate good and bad VC firms Until there is a sensible standard for fund performance current metrics are misleading at best. You can hear them out on portfolio construction and investment strategy to see if you agree assuming you have a view on that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1687026037480153088)  2023-08-03T09:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@hosseeb @peterthiel @pmarca The only real advancement for AI is in processing capacity. Hardware. NLP has been around for much longer than a decade it was just slower. Bitcoin has been around for over a decade and is still probably the only obvious crypto success story. Materials science yes but thats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1687987858290716673)  2023-08-06T02:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The retina scanning crypto-sphere wants to check you are human; youll be compensated with OpenAI-bucks. Everything is fine. 👌"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1691339166846435328)  2023-08-15T06:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"LogMeIn 'Ignition' is a pretty awesome iPhone app. Complete remote control of your home PC via WiFi or 3G. - http://bit.ly/2zDpAK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/16916711328)  2010-06-24T09:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Yep. For example Andreessen Horowitz leading the Yuga Labs round when it was fairly clear that NFTs (in that form at least) were a con. In those cases I think we have to blame firms charging head-first into whatever the new thing is naming some evangelist partners to get cred in that community who invest on blind faith. I dont know whether thats a calculated bet and those partners are sacrificial lambs if the tech doesnt work out or if they really were just drunk on capital"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1691903330564395292)  2023-08-16T20:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The Lux Capital shareholders letter is a mildly condescending word salad. what opinion about venture capital will have you like this https://t.co/FZ4p61AzoL what opinion about venture capital will have you like this https://t.co/FZ4p61AzoL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1692864048243622167)  2023-08-19T11:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CollinCusce @ctjlewis @battleangelviv If I borrow your terminology for a second: they are an important response mechanism that LLMs cannot properly emulate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1693321735766933566)  2023-08-20T17:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Angels do a lot of the unglamorous heavy-lifting in startup funding backing unconvenitonal and truly inventive ideas. #AngelSquad is a major credit to @HustleFundVC a huge plus for their portfolio companies and the firm's overall knowledge base. Well deserved recognition. 👏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1694749436662935702)  2023-08-24T16:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DelJohnsonVC @HustleFundVC How come 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1694762832905032127)  2023-08-24T17:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@VCInsider @b_nicks11 Angel investors typically invest at early stages"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1695113147156242733)  2023-08-25T16:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@GallagherBilly If you can meaningfully improve predictions of valuation growth why are you selling this as a solution to job hunters and not directly to VC firms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1695901628782514543)  2023-08-27T20:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@gunjansyal @lessin VCs invest other people's money. With the bigger funds that fixed management fee starts to became a far more significant feture than actual returns on investment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1696483526038749443)  2023-08-29T11:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Venture capital needs a transparent standard for reporting fund performance:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1696488843405357530)  2023-08-29T11:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@johanknorberg @paulg Ah makes sense Much appreciated Johan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1696593738649227410)  2023-08-29T18:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@BexelInitiative @dflieb "Based on parallel products we see that advertising here offers significant growth potential." "Based on behavior in this industry tradeshows are the main channel and here's how we'll approach that." "Based on this factor product-led growth is a huge opportunity.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1696838892404547992)  2023-08-30T10:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Venture capital needs a transparent standard for reporting fund performance:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1696950332503245242)  2023-08-30T18:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting thread with some great insights. Agree entirely on revenue multiples and a more holistic approach to valuation. Disagree with your framing of this as the fault of founders. Growth at all costs mentality was the product of venture capital. Starting in the dot com era but really going nuts in the last decade. Founders were just playing by the rules of the game as they were presented. Competition meant having to raise VC and raising VC meant having to pursue massive revenue growth. Profit could come later"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1699201498893238536)  2023-09-05T23:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jefielding Sometimes the two worlds just speak a different language which doesnt help. e.g. I cannot reconcile how @Beauhurst (UK) defines Seed with the rest of the world and I know first-hand its causing problems for founders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1700997996018798979)  2023-09-10T22:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jefielding @Beauhurst In those cases investors are looking at Beauhurst data and insisting that Seed rounds should be priced in the 2-4 million range which restricts them to the bottom end of the market. The best startups have to go shopping elsewhere if they cant get a better firms attention"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1700999119152800155)  2023-09-10T22:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@hnshah If someone is capable of filtering out the advice that is unhelpful to their business then they dont need advice in the first place. They are selecting for stuff they already know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1701018832968864028)  2023-09-10T23:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"One interesting part of this project was putting numbers to the idea that pre-revenue founders tend to be too optimistic. Nothing like scrapping for that first $25K to temper your growth expectations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1702273577192419532)  2023-09-14T10:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ctjlewis Is this not in the interest of YC startups"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1703125793545888090)  2023-09-16T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@signorabraham @EghosaO The AI pulled a chunk of content from an article of yours with no context or source cited"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1703683758841335987)  2023-09-18T08:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AusriVilimaityt @TimothyDSnyder He temporarily turned it off for some maybe Starlink has also often been provided to Ukraine at cost to SpaceX. Its up to Musk whether or not he believes theres a real risk of WW3. That and his involvement in that is his concern"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1703684455506788563)  2023-09-18T08:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Adverse selection and Venture Capital #VC #Fundraising #Startups #VentureCapital"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1704824079767740856)  2023-09-21T11:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Aswath Damodaran's article on the Instacart IPO contains some brilliant analysis of venture capital's shifting focus: You've might have seen this graphic shared (usually without attribution) in reference to the outsized returns available at early stages. If you actually read the article you'll see there's a deeper point: "Not only are the best venture capitalists good at pricing the businesses they invest in honing in on to the traits that are being priced in (users subscribers downloads etc.) but are just as good at making sure that these business scale up these traits. Their success comes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1704875050384466213)  2023-09-21T15:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If VCs invest in companies in the hope that they will eventually IPO why don't they ask that those startups adhere to GAAP standard revenue reporting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1706332743074738497)  2023-09-25T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@InvestmentTalkk If you behave like a trader then individual stocks are dangerous. You end up pursuing short-term gains and lose. If you behave like an investor and dont overthink it ( $NVDA $AAPL $TSLA $MSFT etc) you can do well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1706597077357043921)  2023-09-26T09:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Theres a whole class of people on the periphery of entrepreneurship (consultants investors service providers) that preach conventional startup wisdom. Its mostly irrelevant but it turns out to be more about getting kudos from their peers than supporting founders. If people started sharing original thoughts it might threaten that delicate arrangement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1706933510823436676)  2023-09-27T07:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@mattturck I believe @Plexalcity in London hosts more entrepreneurs than Station F. [---] vs [---] as estimates I found online"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1706937911977853306)  2023-09-27T07:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MeghanKReynolds @Delta @united @JetBlue @treiner5 Whats the ticket price difference for the same flights across the three airlines Splitting out and monetising services separately is what budget airlines typically do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1707064049404719396)  2023-09-27T16:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@galeforceVC Its all moot until the industry adopts a standard way to measure fund performance. Right now you can prove that your investment strategy 6+ years ago was good but thats about it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1707104760099110932)  2023-09-27T18:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thebenbergman @karaswisher @lindayaX @JBoorstin I'm puzzled why @JBoorstin asserted that @elonmusk had made an announcement that X was moving to a fully premium model and making @lindayaX respond to that live on stage - despite no part of that being true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1707373072276246676)  2023-09-28T12:33Z [----] followers, 21.1K engagements


"In a good faith conversation with someone if they say 'This has just happened what do you think' the typical response is not to accuse them of lying. It wouldn't be unbelievable that Musk would make a comment without giving Linda a heads up first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1707393158848401430)  2023-09-28T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@adsinuk @rod_mallo Power law makes averages difficult yeah; an averagely performing fund or startup is a loser. Its not an irrelevant way to look at performance across a whole continent though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1707685421059076316)  2023-09-29T09:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The counterpoint to this is that VC is a power law asset class; averages arent useful as the average performers are failures. (true for funds and startups) but that doesnt help LPs select firms to back. Another reason why VC needs a rational standard for measuring TVPI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1709267221103436268)  2023-10-03T18:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@johnloeber @adam_keesling @seidtweets I assume its @chapterone portfolio companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1709619033459261714)  2023-10-04T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thogge The major driver should be a shift to a rational standard for reporting fund performance. Anything else is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1709698909637878052)  2023-10-04T22:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@howardlindzon $3-$5M pre-money for Seed rounds I dont think were ever going back to that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1709842232231026896)  2023-10-05T08:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jefielding @howardlindzon Generally speaking seed rounds are also later and with more traction than they were in [----] thanks to the rise of pre-seed investment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1709842709962174662)  2023-10-05T08:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@howardlindzon ZIRP is a factor but also. + The growth of pre-seed which has displaced seed to an extent. + Faster revenue growth due to greater digitalization better tools and understanding to scale it. + Software investment has been derisked over the last [--] yrs by simple repetition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1709940070483153177)  2023-10-05T14:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@galeforceVC Whats their fund performance like Unless they are putting up impressive numbers (without sketchy marks) its all just hot air"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1710087169543471196)  2023-10-06T00:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@emollick If you cant recognise when someone is being genuine thats probably a weakness for hiring in general"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1710099644695327090)  2023-10-06T01:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@tgerz @buccocapital Im pretty sure that the majority of users dont care about Musk and havent really noticed any change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1710443613870522620)  2023-10-06T23:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@gwestr Elon is their friend. It has nothing to do with accuracy its about maintaining relationships and access. An attitude that reflects the broader corruption of venture capital"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1710680850310852610)  2023-10-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@RMB @jrichlive @galeforceVC There are VC firms using @equidam to do quarterly updates of portco value/fund performance for LPs. It provides a rational practical view on growth rather than the subjectivity/volatility of round pricing etc. Certainly not a common practice though. At least not yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1711067933269443053)  2023-10-08T17:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"You know it's a serious tech bro foreign policy take when it borrows wisdom from Game of Thrones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1711319946003648796)  2023-10-09T09:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@mattschaar @devahaz Remember when a16z led the $450m seed round for them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1712940697563644392)  2023-10-13T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@KateClarkTweets This has been going on for a while:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1714324422637621548)  2023-10-17T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Im absolutely an optimist. I believe in the role that tech has in building a better future. The first optimistic essay that Andreessen wrote (Why software will eat the world) kicked off the bull-run of low interest rate venture capital post-2011. His essay earlier this year (Why AI will save the world) was an attempt to perform CPR on the bull. This latest essay is aimed at deflecting attention onto a number of other industries (notably defence) because AI is falling a little flat. There is a difference between an optimist and a sycophant. Andreessens uncritical pursuit of growth at all costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1714344496077418781)  2023-10-17T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"TechCrunch which has spent over a decade uncritically celebrating venture capital now dislikes venture capitalists. 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1714556157883215963)  2023-10-18T08:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Marc Schrder argues that reluctant LPs risk missing out on potentially historic returns. However if the current slump is (at least partially) down to poor standards and practices in venture capital perhaps LPs would like to see that addressed first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1714612446869045377)  2023-10-18T12:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ByzGeneral That's a disingenuous take. Reddit's 'Community Points' were always intended and described as native to Reddit to be exchanged for rewards on the platform. Anyone who treated them as an investment was making their own bed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1714619036724498745)  2023-10-18T12:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Matt_Schulman1 And disinformation has been rife on every social media platform. There are research papers covering the [----] invasion of Ukraine the [----] election and more. Youtube Twitter and Facebook have always struggled. I don't understand why people act like the checkmarks solved it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1714669077145256422)  2023-10-18T15:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"There is an undeserved level of nastiness in this response. I think hes painted himself into an corner with an investment thesis which hasnt worked out. Generally I dont think a16z has had a good model of the future for a few years now. Now he seems to be trying to project his view onto the world rather than adapting to it. It comes across as a bit deranged yes but its not badly intentioned. Nor do I think he should be concerned at all with peoples estimations of his professional achievements which are significant. The bigger problem (as explained in my response to his article below) is that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1715273204149649536)  2023-10-20T07:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@YakubuAgbese The lingering question is how those markdowns would have differed if managers had a more objective approach. And then who is really in that top VC fund group when you fundamentally change how investments are marked"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1715437381640200417)  2023-10-20T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@garrytan @fintechjunkie And there are YC templates with cap but no discount discount no cap and MFN with neither"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1717300738513154249)  2023-10-25T22:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@docneto @YemiA_ Theres no upside. A) The only good measure of fund performance today is DPI so you have a 6-8 year lag. B) The asset class is built on superficial relationships not data. Until there is a standard measure for fund performance and LPs demand transparency this wont change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1718226754311987533)  2023-10-28T11:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@fdestin @dylankbuckley Its not often that the whole asset class does though. 🤷♂ There was a time (2006) when venture backing was linked to outperforming IPOs:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1719127007349424272)  2023-10-30T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"We want to hire a woman with executive experience at a major global brand to be CEO of our podcast (but they will report to us)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1719629851009700050)  2023-11-01T08:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The failure of due diligence (in Fintech) #Fintech #Startups #VC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1720562289886028231)  2023-11-03T22:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Late-stage investors desperately afraid of missing out on acquiring shareholding positions in possible unicorn companies have essentially abandoned their traditional risk analysis. - @bgurley 2015"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1720581836756115632)  2023-11-03T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@bgurley Remember FTX was a $32bn company with no board no accountant no HR & no detailed due diligence prior to investment. - @NaijaFlyingDr 2022"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1720582034148438237)  2023-11-03T23:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@dj @robgo @a16z Why would they not discuss that before drafting the term sheet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1720590094371893539)  2023-11-03T23:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"It seems unlikely to me that private investments particularly in VC will drive portfolio returns. Why does generative AI have so much heat despite underwhelming commercialisation by startups Because it was the last resort for VC fund performance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1721127215541232005)  2023-11-05T11:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Ljungman @yoramdw Seems unlikely that there would have been a correction on this scale at any other point given the interest rate environment etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1721202653206573511)  2023-11-05T16:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@LukeRangeWalker @BasedBeffJezos @pmarca @elonmusk @SchmidhuberAI isnt saying the use of AI should be unregulated and @elonmusk isnt saying that it should be regulated to death. The real debate is focused on the appropriate approach to regulation. Accounts like @BasedBeffJezos are just here to farm engagement. 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1721215384164925850)  2023-11-05T17:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Fintech might have a revenue fraud problem but it certainly has a perception problem: it leads other industries for association with revenue fraud (and related terms) by a significant margin. Read more on @contextualss: #Fintech #Startups"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1721486978049274146)  2023-11-06T11:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Headline 1: Fund performance is miserable Headline 2: How to encourage diversity in VC If the current structure of VC is failing which appears to be the case on every metric we should look for an approach which addresses both. e.g. being less of an "in-group" sausage-fest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1721826579150471274)  2023-11-07T09:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jasonlk It works at Meta and Google but not necessarily for the employees you want to retain. 😁"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1722051206690885917)  2023-11-08T00:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@_johnsonator Very well said Ive written about this a problem from a different angle in the past: the lack of a standard for valuation and fund performance means VCs back irrational consensus driven nonsense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1722317271467520454)  2023-11-08T18:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@fintechjunkie Use @equidam if you want to automatically factor market risk premium risk free rate and the trend in local private market transactions into your valuations. 👌"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1722320958134931558)  2023-11-08T18:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@StoneAtwine Mobile money payment gateway for online transactions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1722321845016203603)  2023-11-08T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The destructive cycle of VC which will continue burning capital until the industry is ready to start talking about standards for due diligence valuation and fund performance. 1/ At Lux we always watch for "5 year psychological bias": investors want to be TODAY where they should've been [--] years ago Aerospace/Defense will see this trend [--]. Pioneer Co's [--]. Capital Formation (new VCs) [--]. meta- Capital Formation (FoFs) [--]. Bubble/Excess/Fraud [--]. Bust 1/ At Lux we always watch for "5 year psychological bias": investors want to be TODAY where they should've been [--] years ago Aerospace/Defense will see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1723505554926997934)  2023-11-12T00:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@doctorb_lo @DrChrisCombs People doing exceptional work may take exceptional risks. Seems quite a simple trade off to me. 🤷♂ That plus the injury data cited in the article is not very clearly represented. Curious about those bad Fintech takes though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1723802249049068029)  2023-11-12T20:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Space_Heinz Which company would you say is comparable to SpaceX in terms of pushing the envelope for space"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1723814730760929640)  2023-11-12T21:27Z [----] followers, 195.5K engagements


"@pitdesi Did you actually look at their experience before you tweeted this or just a cursory Google search Both seem like a far better fit (at least for OpenAIs initial remit) than the Quora CEO. 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1725628751935857000)  2023-11-17T21:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@tomwarren Were those employees hired with equity compensation in the basis of OpenAI having an eventually titanic exit Easy to like someone who appears to be making you very rich"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1726187588908695613)  2023-11-19T10:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@jeremyphoward Very well expressed yeah. People are acting like OpenAI should be weighed and measured like a SaaS company. It was specifically set up to avoid that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1726212228276510930)  2023-11-19T12:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Authw8 @dylanmatt I suspect the labor are also shareholders which rather compromises their impartiality here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1726221588402483502)  2023-11-19T12:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"OpenAIs corporate structure was designed so the board could keep it mission-focused. open responsible Equity holders (VCs employees) have incentives that are misaligned with that mission. growth profit Surprising that the conflict took so long to come to a head. 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1726266045932118145)  2023-11-19T15:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DelJohnsonVC And I suspect Altman stacked the deck in his own favour by involving influential VC firms and generous PPU packages for employees. Theres a HUGE financial incentive for everyone involved to back him and his vision even if it is at odds with the original purpose of OpenAI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1726268804161028430)  2023-11-19T15:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DavidSacks Your solution is basically 'let Sam run it like a startup' despite that flying in the face of OpenAI's founding mission corporate structure and board member concerns How about Sam just leaves and starts his own thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1726308044030796163)  2023-11-19T18:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@MelindaBChu1 @ai_in_check @elonmusk @DavidSacks I don't really see the direct connection between EA and regulation. however:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1726315527264743779)  2023-11-19T19:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Jason How is this coherent with Elon's criticism of OpenAI for shifting from an open source non-profit to a closed for profit company You and Sacks are so focused on returns that you can't see the wood for the trees with OpenAI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1726316821417021531)  2023-11-19T19:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@augierakow @bhalligan The point of OpenAIs structure was that the board had control. Altman used the fact that the board could fire him as reassurance of his accountability. This has become a fiasco because the board werent transparent and Sam clearly had no intention of listening to them anyway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1726729817897214387)  2023-11-20T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Using multiples on revenue for valuation in an asset class with notoriously poor accounting is already a recipe for trouble. Add in the boom-and-bust of ZIRP unrealistic growth expectations and you have a real problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1727246648026309030)  2023-11-22T08:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Conclusion: In the past Altman has used the board's authority to backstop trust in his leadership. It is now clear that Altman has sufficient leverage to outmanuever the board when he sees fit. OpenAI should give up the pretense of a non-profit and refund the original donors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1727276748700836124)  2023-11-22T10:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@EghosaO Khosla has debased himself trying to torpedo the old OpenAI board smearing Emmett Shear inciting harassment his input on this is compromised. Neither can I take a comparison between OpenAI and Ikea seriously. 😄"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1727429524936086010)  2023-11-22T20:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


""The 'unicorn' archetype often feels akin to peddling a self-help fantasy much like the promises found in books like 'The Secret'." @memetalialabora on building an 'Elephant' a term coined by @erica_wenger referring to community-first companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1728007752859918693)  2023-11-24T11:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Credit to @NaijaFlyingDr for inspiring this real estate perspective on startup valuation with her fantastic video on deal sourcing valuation and due diligence:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1728029171916370219)  2023-11-24T12:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@AlexBerish Have you heard about a guy called Elon Musk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1728531276163055957)  2023-11-25T21:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@isadwatson Agree to disagree on OLeary 😂 I never liked his approach on Shark Tank and the FTX stuff didnt help"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1729818021223358613)  2023-11-29T11:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@anuatluru Fantastic article. 👏 Its top [--] of [----] for me alongside @itsurboyevans VC is ripe for disruption and the epic Confessions of a Middle-Class Founder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1730024492624142354)  2023-11-30T00:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@jefielding This is pretty much why its such a network/relationship driven industry despite the data indicating that is probably bad for returns. A standard for measuring portco value and overall fund performance in a way that could be compared and benchmarked - would be a game changer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1730149872714571951)  2023-11-30T09:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"My sympathy for advertisers roughly correlates with 'neutral' in the graph below. Ad-driven clickbait has been poisonous to our collective psyche society and politics. Any platform that tries to break away from that model has my full support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1730185470242345428)  2023-11-30T11:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The original argument against @OpenAI going public ensuring greater transparency was that it would have to focus on growing shareholder value. In hindsight thats clearly not a problem. So why shouldnt @sama take it public I wrote a bit about this for @contextualss:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1731053323078217743)  2023-12-02T20:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@tibo_maker Venture Capital is and always has been there for ideas that NEED external capital to reach sustainable commercialisation. Founders raising venture rounds for their SaaS tools and apps was a ZIRP phenomenon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1731088207805034819)  2023-12-02T23:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@steviemctweets It makes any measure of current fund performance pretty meaningless doesn't it LPs should encourage VC evolution https://t.co/bitV8Yicm7 #VC cc @LukeThompson360 @chamath @etarczynski @DelJohnsonVC @Samirkaji @asanwal LPs should encourage VC evolution https://t.co/bitV8Yicm7 #VC cc @LukeThompson360 @chamath @etarczynski @DelJohnsonVC @Samirkaji @asanwal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1731399061444423772)  2023-12-03T19:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ChrisANeilson Is there any evidence that crypto-wealth produced anything positive in terms of startup investment 😁"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1731764763720343769)  2023-12-04T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Can someone explain this to me It looks like Liberia has agreed to give 70% of carbon credit value generated by preserving trees on a million hectares of its own land to a private company. Why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1732344199716934059)  2023-12-06T10:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BasedBeffJezos @NPCollapse @Grimezsz @dwarkesh_sp @ManifoldMarkets @lexfridman @GillVerd *Mods: @lexfridman + @Grimezsz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1732369023004811750)  2023-12-06T11:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"As we get further into this cycle and see more examples like OpenView it is important to reflect on why its happening and how to mitigate in future. Yes as an interest rate-driven correction it was unavoidable but the volatility is linked to pro-cyclical practices in VC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1732702100864282646)  2023-12-07T10:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ericbahn I suspect theres a strong positive correlation between enjoying fundraising and fund performance. ✌"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1733191021838602306)  2023-12-08T18:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@EvJames2069 @SawyerMerritt Its not an unusual clause for limited release models and has been used by legacy car makers in the past"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1733499839009202213)  2023-12-09T14:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SawyerMerritt Musk has a long history of overpromising and underdelivering on things via his various ventures. What a moronic statement about a guy who just shipped the cybertruck and had a relatively successful second Starship launch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1733574621234901201)  2023-12-09T19:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@AdamSinger I agree thats better for mental health but for civic engagement understanding whats happening in the world developing a well-rounded political view Ah fuck it. Paying attention in history class is probably more useful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1734721457572209118)  2023-12-12T23:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If you invested in a set % of every round on @Seedrs between [----] and today your IRR would have been 18.36% on a tax-adjusted basis. If you specialized in fintech you'd have an IRR of 29.36%. That puts crowdfunding up there with top quartile venture returns with less risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1735363083642482948)  2023-12-14T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@callmehouck @jefielding Yeah a few factors for sure. Having a success under your belt means your bank account and your ego can more easily take an L. Even if your first venture wasnt a success at least youve been through a shutdown and dont need to fear the unknown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1735590548159844638)  2023-12-15T09:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@WelistNg @signorabraham Not without a clear value yeah. For Fintech 'financial inclusion' is the guise under which they can reach scale. Weak verification for rapid onboarding and maximum growth. Related: A common approach to valuing banking apps has been with a multiple on customer numbers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1735612797709328518)  2023-12-15T10:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@LucaGuala @EdConwaySky There are flexible li-ion options like @Tesla_Megapack pumped hydro like @rheenergise for long-term storage flywheel storage like @levistor for short-term storage and heat battery options like @VaultHeat though I belive that's better suited for excess heat from industry etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1735683289413718314)  2023-12-15T15:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The frequently-cited benchmark of 3x DPI for "good" VC performance means that probably 95% of funds are "poor". VC investments have a 'power law' because startups are inherently uncertain. Why is there also a power law for LP investments Shouldn't fund strategy beat luck 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1736723454399828159)  2023-12-18T12:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1. Ah I see the disconnect: I was talking about VCs preferring signals of fund performance (chasing logos) rather than actual fund performance. The incentive to follow the herd rather than make bets on true outliers. [--]. Anecdotally you could look at 2020-22 when momentum investing was probably at a peak for VC and the fallout since - even for top tier firms. Compare that to the real success stories of VC like @HummingbirdVC (3 12x funds) who tend to be thesis-driven and independently-minded"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1736875348216729634)  2023-12-18T22:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@michuk @Samirkaji I assume for the same reason that spray and pray isnt the dominant strategy for seed VC; its not clear that you dont also excessively water down your returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1737395478482821529)  2023-12-20T08:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@galeforceVC @avirani Yep the most common outcome at the moment (accounting for pre-seed) is hitting 50% sold by Series A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1737425424181837878)  2023-12-20T10:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Samirkaji @geri_kirilova Do you have any data that shows the 3-4x / 2-3x is a broadly reasonable expectation I understand the flaws with reporting via Pitchbook/CA etc but it's hard to find much optimism about VC returns over the past decade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1737507709346255160)  2023-12-20T16:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MorningBrew Hmmm I think that award goes to @yugalabs. @a16z investing $350M in monkey pictures was peak ZIRP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1737619134731673976)  2023-12-20T23:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"You have nailed many of the issues of venture capital today and I agree emphatically that it can be traced back to Andreessens [----] manifesto. We diverge at your rant about e/acc which I think is more of a meme than a coherent ideology. The people bearing that label have a range of views on regulation risk responsibility etc. Importantly though I see it as an entirely separate idea from the more pressing issue of corruption in the venture asset class which you articulated so well. As you say yourself a truly pro-technology pro-innovation person should want to see venture capital with greater"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1737639067997646923)  2023-12-21T01:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Raadmobrem @useintro @alexisohanian I definitely didn't intend to criticise @useintro Raad. Apologies if it came off that way It's just a point about investors who use the platform. I'm concerned about 'pay to play' startup investment when the asset class already suffers from enough inequality without that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1737854758218875303)  2023-12-21T15:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Investing in AI's largest rounds in 2023: @Microsoft @nvidia @amazon @Google @salesforce and @Zoom. Seems like confirmation for the 'generative AI is an incumbent strategy' crowd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1737864439905317040)  2023-12-21T15:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@iankar_ so many people will have a lot of their wealth wiped out it'll be really sad to see give venture a bad name and piss off regulators You just described the last [--] months. Which is why I agree with you: it is not fit to be a universally accessible investment product"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1737997036417618083)  2023-12-22T00:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@iankar_ and small emerging managers broadly outperform the larger incumbents. 🤷♂ I would have absolutely zero interest in investing in a16z or Sequoia after the scale of their negligence and questionable judgement in the last few years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1737997473254408299)  2023-12-22T00:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@tobi Its the best thing to happen to any platform. X is literally the only company with a meaningful answer to disinformation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1738000231659397497)  2023-12-22T00:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@10x_er It might have been a gift. You know from a Nvidia exec or something. 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1738667324582805752)  2023-12-23T21:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@LinusEkenstam People dont buy paintings for the paint. They buy them for the artist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1738676858785329181)  2023-12-23T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DelJohnsonVC @iaboyeji @Jasielinvests"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1738694854954131461)  2023-12-23T22:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Its not accelerationist to believe that genAI makes traditional forms of human creativity obsolete. A world where all value is derived from (and attributed to) the machine is not a particularly optimistic prospect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1738927468893909389)  2023-12-24T14:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Has @a16z ever acknowledged how lost in the sauce they were with the @yugalabs investment For a firm with $35B AUM earmarked for the future of tech Id like to see a bit more accountability. 🤷♂ A reminder that @yugalabs the company behind #BAYC was valued at more than @Bungie the company behind the monster @Halo and @DestinyTheGame IPs. Tell me what does a Koda do 🤔 #NFTs #Topsign #Web3 A reminder that @yugalabs the company behind #BAYC was valued at more than @Bungie the company behind the monster @Halo and @DestinyTheGame IPs. Tell me what does a Koda do 🤔 #NFTs #Topsign #Web3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1738944709710450906)  2023-12-24T15:28Z [----] followers, 18.5K engagements


"@ImJoshIsrael @a16z @yugalabs Power law is used to excuse a lot of terrible decision making. Bored Apes Otherside Kodas etc were an elaborate scheme to get retail investors without (it appears) any intention of using that capital properly. VCs saw this and wanted to torch their own money too 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1739210426095681759)  2023-12-25T09:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@sand_9999 @darrenmarble Youre paying 7% for the infrastructure for the mechanics of the raise (everything from cap table to KYC/compliance) as well as a community platform for investors. If you can do it yourself without it becoming a crippling distraction from your business feel free"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1739576362090762566)  2023-12-26T09:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A dear friend and investor told me that roughly [--] VC firms per stage think for themselves and everyone else follows. I believe this. Working on our Q4/Annual LP Update. Sharing a short list of the many lessons we have learned to date: -Hype rounds are pointless and do not predict a strong future outcome or future fundraising success. We avoid these rounds at all costs. -A+ teams with B- ideas are far Working on our Q4/Annual LP Update. Sharing a short list of the many lessons we have learned to date: -Hype rounds are pointless and do not predict a strong future outcome or future fundraising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1739965006257786894)  2023-12-27T11:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Billy this is the founder. He's got a PhD from CILVR Lab and was employee number six at Palantir. His defect is that he's a Lakers fan. The one through line with all the best founders i know: They cant stand watching sports. The one through line with all the best founders i know: They cant stand watching sports"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1740026641475371009)  2023-12-27T15:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@fintechjunkie 3x as a benchmark for later stage funds who can return capital faster and with less risk perhaps. Early stage VC is capable of much more. In more rational markets smart thesis driven firms have managed repeatable 8-9x returns. https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/hummingbird https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/hummingbird"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1740321967616475377)  2023-12-28T10:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@fintechjunkie Getting to the bottom of the issue: nobody really knows what the benchmark for great performance looks like with any useful level of detail. Theres also very little transparency about individual fund performance. A dramatic lack of accountability given the capital at stake"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1740323647561101691)  2023-12-28T10:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Its definitely possible to navigate by foot at least the most interesting central area. Galata is a great neighbourhood to stay in and youre a [--] minute walk from Karaky [--] minute walk over the bridge to Eminn with Hagia Sophia Blue Mosque Topkapi Cistern etc. You can also jump on a ferry trip across the Bosporus to any number of other points from there. Public transport is generally pretty good I like the metro. Lots of other neighbourhoods worth visiting for a walk around"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1740710045321507063)  2023-12-29T12:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@NaijaFlyingDr Great video The jeans factory makes for a good comparison with Tesla: Cost to duplicate is a valid method to value a traditional business like the factory. For Tesla you have to factor how intangibles (like brand strength and data) influence future growth via projections"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1740759163498566026)  2023-12-29T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Lawrence_Ou Which is riskier investing in Apple or investing in a VC fund The VC fund of course. Which is why we expect greater returns. If Apple is returning 4x and VC funds are returning 3x the model is broken. To an LP both are concentrated bets except one offers easy liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1740764873720778819)  2023-12-29T16:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Lawrence_Ou Youre getting 4x on Apple over a [--] year period. Thats roughly the length of time the VC fund will be locking up capital and returning 3x. Tell me again about the IRR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1740766301428260864)  2023-12-29T16:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@SawyerMerritt nah. US police department should absolutely have a Tesla fleet for practical purposes but it should be the Model [--]. Taxpayers shouldnt pay for any more militarisation of police forces and the optics of police driving around in giant bulletproof trucks are not good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742523433110401405)  2024-01-03T12:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Successful outcomes stem in large part from investing in the right places at the right times; VC firms do not persist in their ability to choose the right places and times to invest. ➡ #VC #Fundraising #Startups"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1743616078670917944)  2024-01-06T12:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@katekiewel Part of the revenue growth might be down to the generative AI bolt-on but I suspect its a minority and will produce the fastest churning customers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1745442869983297557)  2024-01-11T13:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@StephNass Companies that could not exist without it. It sounds axiomatic but the point is that VC is there for ANY business that NEEDS financing but nobody else will finance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1745446756635042097)  2024-01-11T14:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"which is fine for making bets but terrible for reporting fund performance to increasingly scrupulous LPs. If youre a VC looking to get better at understanding valuation for startups our door is always open at @equidam. #StartupValuation #VC VCs are generally bad at asessing the present value of companies But good ones are good at assessing probability distributions of future outcomes Public market folks are generally good at assessing the present value But less good at probability distributions of future outcomes VCs are generally bad at asessing the present value of companies But good ones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1745891165277196581)  2024-01-12T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DelJohnsonVC Id like to see transparency as a rule throughout the asset class. Especially: If a VC takes money from pensions endowments etc - anything impacting the public - then they publicly disclose ALL investments (with terms) in real-time and fund performance at least quarterly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1748683189164372414)  2024-01-20T12:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@mattmvinson @bgurley Usage credits feel like they should fall into the former not the latter - but I appreciate that isnt the case. Thanks for the explanation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1748689177208561700)  2024-01-20T12:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@howdoyousaynejc @moonpay Google did this over a decade ago with Google Pay about as frictionless as you can get and nobody used it. The market for content is just too saturated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1749163897662189708)  2024-01-21T20:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@howdoyousaynejc @moonpay If you load a specific digital wallet for content micro-transactions you can have instant fee-free transfers with fiat too. I dont see what crypto adds here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1749180675561865297)  2024-01-21T21:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Airlines and fossil fuel giants attempting to offset their environmental impact by convincing people not to cook on wood fires. 🤷♂ Carbon markets could be great but right now theyre an embarrassment. Carbon credits from cookstove emissions largely worthless study finds via @FT https://t.co/Tl6f06qp35 Carbon credits from cookstove emissions largely worthless study finds via @FT https://t.co/Tl6f06qp35"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1750085973281489232)  2024-01-24T09:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Keels Every time Ive checked betting odds for the [----] US election over the last three years Trump has been the favourite to win. 🤷♂ Im not sure why anyone is surprised at this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1750329089754570938)  2024-01-25T01:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"There is no evidence that experience as a founder produces better results as a venture capitalist. https://www.cbinsights.com/research/founders-best-venture-capitalist-investors/ @nealkhosla I tell people who want to get into venture capital to go start a startup instead. You'll get a lot more respect from VCs if you come in from that direction. And if you do it well enough you won't have to become a VC after all. https://www.cbinsights.com/research/founders-best-venture-capitalist-investors/ @nealkhosla I tell people who want to get into venture capital to go start a startup instead. You'll"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1750638843387060228)  2024-01-25T21:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@andrew__rea The last few years painted a picture of high status significant wealth and low accountability. Once the music stopped everyone also stopped broadcasting the lifestyle. The reality seems mostly miserable at the moment. 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1750658750615032288)  2024-01-25T23:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"VCs are crawling out of the water utilising newly-developed limbs learning about interest rates. 🥹 One funny thing about high interest rates is that an early stage startup that raised $10M will generate like $40k in monthly interest income often more than their actual revenue. One funny thing about high interest rates is that an early stage startup that raised $10M will generate like $40k in monthly interest income often more than their actual revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1750851934305530344)  2024-01-26T12:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"There are two main considerations here: 1) What is the 'objective' value of a business in terms of future growth potential discounted for risk. 2) How does that compare to the market of opportunities available to investors Essentially: valuation + market perspective = price How this looks in terms of the various factors is laid out in the table below. Early stage companies rely more on qualitative measures of characteristics as they are built on so many assumptions. Later stage companies which have converted more of those assumptions into proof through performance can rely more on actual"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1750875748129288265)  2024-01-26T13:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@nikitabier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1750915597171364293)  2024-01-26T16:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Just got an update from a fantastic startup that is going into voluntary liquidation. They signed a term sheet last summer but the lead dragged their feet for months; it transpired that they couldnt get LPs to honour a capital call. They made some progress with other investors but it was too late. Dozens of people at the absolute top of their field in robotics and automation now polishing their resumes. There have been many stories like this in the last [--] months. Its tough to see such an important asset class fail so miserably"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1750963751153471579)  2024-01-26T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"People in tech will parrot any old garbage if you put it in quotes and attribute it to me - @paulg A personal favourite of mine. Why do people love making things up about @paulg so much https://t.co/HnQljiXXhK Why do people love making things up about @paulg so much https://t.co/HnQljiXXhK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1751424243638632561)  2024-01-28T01:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@mdudas And the interest rates are normal not high. We came out of a period of unusually low interest rates during which corruption and excess spread through VC. When we came back to Earth that all fell apart. Poor take from the WSJ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1751629308722880803)  2024-01-28T15:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Im a fan of @theinformation for example but that model works for a small specialist and relatively wealthy audience. It does not solve the wider problem of access to quality journalism in the same way that @YehongZhu might"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1752270340279902216)  2024-01-30T09:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"To close: I think this is a far bigger problem than many realise with wide reaching consequences - including the graph below which I share as regularly as I can. It is well worth spending time and capital to experiment with solutions. @DKThomp Source: @DavidRozado https://t.co/BIOONK6f8B @DKThomp Source: @DavidRozado https://t.co/BIOONK6f8B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1752270341919866884)  2024-01-30T09:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If VCs had been rational enough to seek liquidity in [----] prices wouldn't have been so inflated to begin with. And to whom would they have sold Dumping overpriced stock onto others is a part of why there is a liquidity/IPO issue in the first place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1752651058013249908)  2024-01-31T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Continuity funds are a reasonable solution and it's an attractive proposition for early investors to exit positions to larger funds in a world without inflated IPOs. .but if you want to reflect on today's liquidity squeeze first consider the root of the ZIRP madness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1752652400937070717)  2024-01-31T11:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If you believe VC should have a healthier secondary market for liquidity this is the attitude you need to correct. You cannot expect to sell shares in private companies to others unless you also take valuation seriously. If VCs had been rational enough to seek liquidity in [----] prices wouldn't have been so inflated to begin with. And to whom would they have sold Dumping overpriced stock onto others is a part of why there is a liquidity/IPO issue in the first place. https://t.co/V0vBENNX3K https://t.co/gSZvmQutHB If VCs had been rational enough to seek liquidity in [----] prices wouldn't have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1753357627705176071)  2024-02-02T10:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"A great way to track investor sentiment is to look at the delta between revenue generating startups and pre-revenue startups. How much focus is on de-risking companies with traction 🤔 Thoughts on the graph below here: #Fundraising #VC #Startups"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1753383080184733921)  2024-02-02T11:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@StephNass I've also seen VCs casting doubt on spatial computing because the market isn't big enough and there aren't any proven applications. .do you understand the purpose of venture is to invest in the future or nah 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1754430291404300576)  2024-02-05T09:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@StephNass "unicorn founder" "raising a mega-round" "10 minutes" A perfect fit for the a16z MO of yeeting capital into hot sectors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1754554806968979549)  2024-02-05T17:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@mdharrisnyc This ignores two major headwinds for BNPL: 1) Interest rates make it less feasible to offer the attractive 0% terms that catalysed a lot of early growth. 2) With increasing regulatory scrutiny the sector will have to adjust to an environment less favourable to rapid growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1755196689315459272)  2024-02-07T11:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@PeterJ_Walker @elizabeth Im betting on roughly even and (with some optimism) perhaps marginally lower"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1755309407968137442)  2024-02-07T19:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Gaming bestseller lists by bulk-shipping copies to everyone in their network is a textbook a16z move to be fair. 🤷♂ Cas is simply a conspiracy theorist about a16z scamming their way onto the NYT bestseller list the actual reality: https://t.co/Z0v6lJdQ5Q Cas is simply a conspiracy theorist about a16z scamming their way onto the NYT bestseller list the actual reality: https://t.co/Z0v6lJdQ5Q"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1755672398081278085)  2024-02-08T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Making VC a box-ticking exercise with buckets based on revenue/growth/margins is a ZIRP phenomenon that needs to die. A SaaS-specialised firm may have a thesis on these metrics and thats ok but ita a shortcut for screening not universal truth. VC is a game of outliers. You invest in the best companies you find based on the specifics they present. Thats it. Was challenged tonight at a dinner w/ other founders investors and operators to share what the bar is for a Series A so heres my take: - $1M ARR at a minimum - [--] - 5x YoY growth - 2x burn multiple (or improving YoY toward that) - 70-80%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1756045938693493030)  2024-02-09T20:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ankurnagpal Valuation is always about the future. It the fulcrum of exit potential and risk. Thats as true at pre-seed as it is at Series B. Theres more qualitative art to it early on but its helpful to go through and develop a more complete and coherent view of the opportunity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1756332743321886868)  2024-02-10T15:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ColinGardiner @MeghanKReynolds @Samirkaji @joinallocate A huge amount of confusion in VC stems from people talking indiscriminately about early/late stage. Different liquidity horizons reporting practices fee structures risk/return profiles areas of competence capital requirements. In many ways they are separate asset classes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1756414466223210500)  2024-02-10T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MacroAlf Both NVIDIA and the Chinese stock market are priced at what people are willing to pay. The comparison to Canadian GDP is Apples and Oranges and so not a real comparison of price or value. The price/value distinction is more meaningful for illiquid/opaque private company stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1756455753827729651)  2024-02-10T23:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@MartinGTobias Other than Is the company still building products that are core to my thesis the questions seem like a re-run of the original investment decision which makes me wonder who is buying / how healthy the secondary market is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1757332797847376196)  2024-02-13T09:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Technology allows us to apply those incentives at scale yielding positive or negative outcomes for humanity. We spend too much time thinking about what we hope a technology will do and not enough time on the underlying incentives it creates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1757371423922803131)  2024-02-13T11:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"e.g. the article harps on the ills of social media. I don't think it's clear at all whether social media has itself been a net negative. However it is clear that social media has amplified subversive clickbait incentivising ad-driven media to lean into that as a strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1757372223181005237)  2024-02-13T11:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ericbahn @MKBHD His content is so consistently good and his personal brand so well looked after that even Apple have co-signed his content in the past. He reached escape velocity with his ethics in tact so he never had to sacrifice objectivity for cash. Been on the @MKBHD train for a while"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1757682974793908670)  2024-02-14T08:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I know were all very excited by Sora but high-fidelity genAI video has been around for most of a year (see below). Hollywood isnt going to change much but the VFX industry might. GenAI will probably offer a different kind of experience all together"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1758299697158971476)  2024-02-16T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"High-fidelity generative video has been around for a year or so. There have been AI movie trailers published in Twitter since June last year. Sora is cool but it is not a new concept - and it is not what @ylecun is referring to as a solution because it still has all of the generative AI issues with consistency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1758570641664434456)  2024-02-16T19:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"In case you werent paying attention: Generative AI video as of June last year:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1758658808900170152)  2024-02-17T01:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Another one from May last year:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1758659165269160375)  2024-02-17T01:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Not trying to downplay @OpenAIs Sora just pointing out that its not a new concept. Sora is great but it still suffers from GenAI issues with consistency and fidelity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1758660218823774619)  2024-02-17T01:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"As the limits of GenAI are better understood it should be concerning for VC. Too much power-law capital concentrated into one sector: zero-sum outcomes. Deja-vu. Another dot-com bubble Will OpenAI Anthropic etc prop-up average returns through epic wealth destruction 🤷♂ While GenAI is fun I think its economic value is grossly over estimated because its unreliable risky and expensive to make and serve. Its fine for creative tasks but not (yet) autonomous agents While GenAI is fun I think its economic value is grossly over estimated because its unreliable risky and expensive to make and serve."  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1758813763896025436)  2024-02-17T11:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Many of the winners in GenAI will be incumbents. NVIDIA Microsoft Google Adobe Meta etc. That might be the main difference between today and the dotcom bubble: the availability of public stocks that offer a lot of the upside at a fraction of the risk. As the limits of GenAI are better understood it should be concerning for VC. Too much power-law capital concentrated into one sector: zero-sum outcomes. Deja-vu. Another dot-com bubble Will OpenAI Anthropic etc prop-up average returns through epic wealth destruction 🤷♂ https://t.co/vzcWGzerlb As the limits of GenAI are better understood it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1758995752175485359)  2024-02-17T23:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@micsolana Reads like someone asked ChatGPT to write something philosophical about property destruction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1759016881128653172)  2024-02-18T00:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@arny_trezzi @buccocapital Built back up to 12M shares in Palantir over the last two years or so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1760451882244329701)  2024-02-21T23:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thomasg_grizzle Large holdings in Tesla Meta Palantir Google. Sold down Nvidia and TSMC heavily but not completely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1760453039448600643)  2024-02-21T23:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@EghosaO Allegedly Reddit had [---] employees in [----] and [----] by [----]. 🤯 Clearly they haven't been willing to swallow the bitter pill with a mere 5% RIF mid-2023. I'm confused why a UGC-driven site where so much is managed by volunteers would need even [---] employees to begin with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1760999144368357803)  2024-02-23T12:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Trace_Cohen [----] Allbirds included was rife with tech IPOs that collapsed in value soon after launch. Its a skeptical market so a bloated platform with weak economics like Reddit is going to struggle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1761211386946867489)  2024-02-24T02:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@pitdesi They saw the success of the Cybertruck and realised that Musk had already executed their product design playbook (with a bit more edge) pretty much perfectly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1762630181594763738)  2024-02-28T00:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@marvincoleby Former operators getting involved in (and driving) accelerator programs Absolutely. Investing Im not so sure; the data doesnt support that in other markets - but maybe the context in Africa demands a different approach"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1763620028060958889)  2024-03-01T17:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"PISCES should use the model of equity crowdfunding platforms to open up private secondaries to retail investors. In addition to liquidity it would ensure the regulator requires an appropriate level of transparency with listings which the market as a whole would benefit from. Hunt to set out plans for private companies to trade shares on exchanges https://t.co/j9Id6mqrNm Hunt to set out plans for private companies to trade shares on exchanges https://t.co/j9Id6mqrNm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1765688880299184327)  2024-03-07T10:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"There will be all kinds of justifications for why such transparency isn't viable and they will all ignore the fundamental truth that any secondary market without it will be strangled by adverse selection"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1765689277092876294)  2024-03-07T10:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@fintechjunkie There's a lot of diffusion of responsibility going on in this post. Valuations getting out of hand due diligence collapsing startups being pushed to pursue blitzscaling. these all rest squarely on the shoulders of VCs and every VC should consider their role in that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1765859301413773501)  2024-03-07T21:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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