[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @credistick Dan Gray Dan Gray posts on X about investment, signals, reliance, momentum the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXX [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX +234% - X Month XXXXXXX +560% - X Months XXXXXXX -XX% - X Year XXXXXXXXX +4.20% ### Mentions: X [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/posts_active)  - X Week XX +16% - X Month XX +7.90% - X Months XXX +10% - X Year XXX +16% ### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/followers)  - X Week XXXXX +2.30% - X Month XXXXX +5.60% - X Months XXXXX +47% - X Year XXXXX +194% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) XXXXX% [vc firms](/list/vc-firms) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [investment](/topic/investment) 15.63%, [signals](/topic/signals) #1976, [reliance](/topic/reliance) 3.13%, [momentum](/topic/momentum) 3.13%, [money](/topic/money) 3.13%, [see the](/topic/see-the) 3.13%, [halving](/topic/halving) 3.13%, [narratives](/topic/narratives) 3.13%, [hustle](/topic/hustle) 3.13%, [vcs](/topic/vcs) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@provisionalidea](/creator/undefined) [@willmanidis](/creator/undefined) [@almostmedia](/creator/undefined) [@valaratomics](/creator/undefined) [@tracecohen](/creator/undefined) [@absoluttig](/creator/undefined) [@boostvc](/creator/undefined) [@hankcouture](/creator/undefined) [@theethanding](/creator/undefined) [@pavelprata](/creator/undefined) [@mprinparr](/creator/undefined) [@geigster](/creator/undefined) [@scottdwitt](/creator/undefined) [@alexdancos](/creator/undefined) [@isaiahptaylor](/creator/undefined) [@gvteam](/creator/undefined) [@benchmark](/creator/undefined) [@kleinerperkins](/creator/undefined) [@greylockvc](/creator/undefined) [@venrock](/creator/undefined) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "Addressing the challenges of staged capital allocation and the reliance on up/downstream partners VC has adopted a practice similar to "convention bidding". In simple terms this is where the terms of a bid (or an investment in this case) carry market signals beyond the face-value of the terms themselves. This analogy to the game bridge (as opposed to the usual poker analogies) is explored in @Alex_Danco's brilliant article "VCs should play bridge". However it's also another example of: 1) VCs revealed preference for affirmation rather than conviction when it comes to making decisions. 2) VCs" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978472722528170102) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5891 followers, 2404 engagements "By addressing uncertainty with incremental signals venture capital becomes myopic focused on incremental growth rather than the potential of ultimate outcomes. Market-based signals also introduce fragility through undiversifiable systematic risk; a contraction may wipe-out fundraising momentum for what should be uncorrelated investments" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978472725917118956) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5891 followers, XXX engagements ""In the early days of Valar a lot of VCs passed on us because they didnt believe we could raise the money." Yes VCs will pass on a company out of fear that other VCs will pass on it. This is institutionalised insecurity. Venture capital emerged from opportunity of frontier technologies; huge idiosyncratic risk huge upside potential. Power law meets portfolio strategy. Today it is dominated by low-agency herd animals that have traded that opportunity away for easier personal enrichment and job security. Instead of independent judgement and the implicit accountability they outsource to the" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979154299658866977) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-17T11:55Z 5891 followers, 134.6K engagements "@WillManidis @absoluttig I invested in Revolut in 2017 and have taken 60x that investment out through secondaries alone in the last few months. As a portfolio that's 6x DPI from one investment with XX others still playing out" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1961034956085305809) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-08-28T11:55Z 5892 followers, XXX engagements "It seems to be more or less what you would expect: "Industry-specific human capital also plays a role in explaining venture capital fund performance. In particular venture capital fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in management consulting manage better performing funds. Fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in science and engineering manage better performing funds when a greater fraction of a funds investments are in high-tech industries. Fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in non-venture finance manage better" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1970593330414440945) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-09-23T20:57Z 5892 followers, XX engagements "Great post from @WillManidis about VC's media business and the intent to tap more retail capital via RIAs (see the survey data from @KKR_Co below). As a parallel consider last decade's boom in crypto media devoted to finding talismanic geometry in price charts and prayer-groups around The Halving. The VC version of this is using narratives like AGI and ARR-based "girl math" to pretend that they only invest in growing assets that always only grow. This is why I'm deeply skeptical of retail involvement in VC and particularly the broad push into media. VC's financialisation directly reflects" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1974093116245229862) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-03T12:44Z 5892 followers, 2402 engagements "Repeated studies have shown that VCs overindex on shallow founder attributes leading to predictably bad investments and missed good investments. The reason this happens is simple: VCs convinced themselves that 'fundraising' is a desirable trait in founders. So a product of incentives and recursive thinking the industry converged on an "ideal founder" archetype that can (therefore) most easily raise capital. Of course this nonsense is eroding returns but it makes investing easier and helps drive capital into their mediocre portfolio. Tough to break the habit. Now had VCs put that burden on" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1976335306417725826) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-09T17:13Z 5893 followers, 67.4K engagements "This is rooted in venture capital's weak financial literacy and poor grasp of valuation. Most VCs see valuation as something done by MBAs with spreadsheets. In reality it's just adding good theory data and discipline to the judgements they already make anyway. Most importantly valuation (when done properly) not only provides an informed opinion on entry price it also gives you a view on trajectory helping to address future capital formation. Were VCs more concerned with objective success and independent conviction they would approach staged capital more efficiently with valuation. Otherwise" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978472729050321209) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5891 followers, XXX engagements "@TheEthanDing Its just a very different strategy. Founders Fund is not a concentrated investor either by the way. Outside of their incubated companies and core positions they make a lot of smaller investments" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979569507916996833) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-18T15:25Z 5891 followers, XXX engagements "@WillManidis @absoluttig Also I'm going to ban you from theory posting about merchant banking until you've actually funded a trading mission to the orient yourself" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1961036049561378977) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-08-28T12:00Z 5891 followers, XXX engagements "Entrepreneurship has been glorified but for whom This doesn't seem relevant to the Detroit metal startup the Boston biotech or the LA agritech. For San Francisco software startups Yes clearly. This genre of entrepreneurship has been popularised by the media and more recently by an increasingly explicit playbook for achieving success: - Obtain the credentials VCs value - Move to where VCs are - Build what VCs want - Receive capital / status This is an expression of San Francisco's Main Character syndrome as the hub circulating the largest sums of capital. (see: "Buy Local The Geography of" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1980243786300088599) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-20T12:04Z 5891 followers, 9196 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@credistick Dan Gray
Dan Gray posts on X about investment, signals, reliance, momentum the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +234%
- X Month XXXXXXX +560%
- X Months XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Year XXXXXXXXX +4.20%
Mentions: X #
- X Week XX +16%
- X Month XX +7.90%
- X Months XXX +10%
- X Year XXX +16%
Followers: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXX +2.30%
- X Month XXXXX +5.60%
- X Months XXXXX +47%
- X Year XXXXX +194%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence finance XXXXX% vc firms XXXX%
Social topic influence investment 15.63%, signals #1976, reliance 3.13%, momentum 3.13%, money 3.13%, see the 3.13%, halving 3.13%, narratives 3.13%, hustle 3.13%, vcs XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @provisionalidea @willmanidis @almostmedia @valaratomics @tracecohen @absoluttig @boostvc @hankcouture @theethanding @pavelprata @mprinparr @geigster @scottdwitt @alexdancos @isaiahptaylor @gvteam @benchmark @kleinerperkins @greylockvc @venrock
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"Addressing the challenges of staged capital allocation and the reliance on up/downstream partners VC has adopted a practice similar to "convention bidding". In simple terms this is where the terms of a bid (or an investment in this case) carry market signals beyond the face-value of the terms themselves. This analogy to the game bridge (as opposed to the usual poker analogies) is explored in @Alex_Danco's brilliant article "VCs should play bridge". However it's also another example of: 1) VCs revealed preference for affirmation rather than conviction when it comes to making decisions. 2) VCs"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5891 followers, 2404 engagements
"By addressing uncertainty with incremental signals venture capital becomes myopic focused on incremental growth rather than the potential of ultimate outcomes. Market-based signals also introduce fragility through undiversifiable systematic risk; a contraction may wipe-out fundraising momentum for what should be uncorrelated investments"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5891 followers, XXX engagements
""In the early days of Valar a lot of VCs passed on us because they didnt believe we could raise the money." Yes VCs will pass on a company out of fear that other VCs will pass on it. This is institutionalised insecurity. Venture capital emerged from opportunity of frontier technologies; huge idiosyncratic risk huge upside potential. Power law meets portfolio strategy. Today it is dominated by low-agency herd animals that have traded that opportunity away for easier personal enrichment and job security. Instead of independent judgement and the implicit accountability they outsource to the"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-17T11:55Z 5891 followers, 134.6K engagements
"@WillManidis @absoluttig I invested in Revolut in 2017 and have taken 60x that investment out through secondaries alone in the last few months. As a portfolio that's 6x DPI from one investment with XX others still playing out"
X Link @credistick 2025-08-28T11:55Z 5892 followers, XXX engagements
"It seems to be more or less what you would expect: "Industry-specific human capital also plays a role in explaining venture capital fund performance. In particular venture capital fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in management consulting manage better performing funds. Fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in science and engineering manage better performing funds when a greater fraction of a funds investments are in high-tech industries. Fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in non-venture finance manage better"
X Link @credistick 2025-09-23T20:57Z 5892 followers, XX engagements
"Great post from @WillManidis about VC's media business and the intent to tap more retail capital via RIAs (see the survey data from @KKR_Co below). As a parallel consider last decade's boom in crypto media devoted to finding talismanic geometry in price charts and prayer-groups around The Halving. The VC version of this is using narratives like AGI and ARR-based "girl math" to pretend that they only invest in growing assets that always only grow. This is why I'm deeply skeptical of retail involvement in VC and particularly the broad push into media. VC's financialisation directly reflects"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-03T12:44Z 5892 followers, 2402 engagements
"Repeated studies have shown that VCs overindex on shallow founder attributes leading to predictably bad investments and missed good investments. The reason this happens is simple: VCs convinced themselves that 'fundraising' is a desirable trait in founders. So a product of incentives and recursive thinking the industry converged on an "ideal founder" archetype that can (therefore) most easily raise capital. Of course this nonsense is eroding returns but it makes investing easier and helps drive capital into their mediocre portfolio. Tough to break the habit. Now had VCs put that burden on"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-09T17:13Z 5893 followers, 67.4K engagements
"This is rooted in venture capital's weak financial literacy and poor grasp of valuation. Most VCs see valuation as something done by MBAs with spreadsheets. In reality it's just adding good theory data and discipline to the judgements they already make anyway. Most importantly valuation (when done properly) not only provides an informed opinion on entry price it also gives you a view on trajectory helping to address future capital formation. Were VCs more concerned with objective success and independent conviction they would approach staged capital more efficiently with valuation. Otherwise"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5891 followers, XXX engagements
"@TheEthanDing Its just a very different strategy. Founders Fund is not a concentrated investor either by the way. Outside of their incubated companies and core positions they make a lot of smaller investments"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-18T15:25Z 5891 followers, XXX engagements
"@WillManidis @absoluttig Also I'm going to ban you from theory posting about merchant banking until you've actually funded a trading mission to the orient yourself"
X Link @credistick 2025-08-28T12:00Z 5891 followers, XXX engagements
"Entrepreneurship has been glorified but for whom This doesn't seem relevant to the Detroit metal startup the Boston biotech or the LA agritech. For San Francisco software startups Yes clearly. This genre of entrepreneurship has been popularised by the media and more recently by an increasingly explicit playbook for achieving success: - Obtain the credentials VCs value - Move to where VCs are - Build what VCs want - Receive capital / status This is an expression of San Francisco's Main Character syndrome as the hub circulating the largest sums of capital. (see: "Buy Local The Geography of"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-20T12:04Z 5891 followers, 9196 engagements