[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

[@credistick](/creator/twitter/credistick)
"Addressing the challenges of staged capital allocation and the reliance on up/downstream partners VC has adopted a practice similar to "convention bidding". In simple terms this is where the terms of a bid (or an investment in this case) carry market signals beyond the face-value of the terms themselves. This analogy to the game bridge (as opposed to the usual poker analogies) is explored in @Alex_Danco's brilliant article "VCs should play bridge". However it's also another example of: 1) VCs revealed preference for affirmation rather than conviction when it comes to making decisions. 2) VCs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978472722528170102) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5893 followers, 2383 engagements


"@Trace_Cohen Sure they'll need to raise again but they'll have half a million dollars and XX months of building to make the value more obvious to the next cohort of investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979188443872702748) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-17T14:11Z 5884 followers, XXX engagements


"@AlmostMedia @prmshra @atomic_inc @valaratomics @precigenetic I don't just follow you to yap about Istanbul"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979189482977919385) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-17T14:15Z 5884 followers, XX engagements


"It seems to be more or less what you would expect: "Industry-specific human capital also plays a role in explaining venture capital fund performance. In particular venture capital fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in management consulting manage better performing funds. Fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in science and engineering manage better performing funds when a greater fraction of a funds investments are in high-tech industries. Fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in non-venture finance manage better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1970593330414440945) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-09-23T20:57Z 5888 followers, XX engagements


"This is excellent. Great read. My one small disagreement is with the idea that every venture capitalist reads the same books. I believe a lot more VCs are familiar with Perez Helmer Porter etc but theres very little evidence that this stuff is actually read or well understood"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1976415906051105069) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-09T22:34Z 5888 followers, 1383 engagements


"@YakubuAgbese Consensus or not only matters for discovery. After that point companies have traction and the value becomes more obvious consensus or not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979323474763223255) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-17T23:07Z 5888 followers, XX engagements


"I agree totally with the premise. The primary concern of VCs is to deliver above-benchmark returns to LPs. Innovation is a nice to have at best. I disagree with the conclusion that this therefore makes VC unsuitable for investing in R&D intensive companies. There are a load of biotech success stories with venture backing for example. There is friction with the typical fund life cycle but there are also generally longer durations tolerated today more secondary activity and evergreen fund structures. Its a solvable problem. Lots of VCs struggle with this because their only lens on value is ARR."  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979353186545635369) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-18T01:05Z 5889 followers, XX engagements


"We evaluated nine state-of-the-art LLMs and found that several outperform not only the market index but also the leading VC firms. (source: VCBench: Benchmarking LLMs in Venture Capital) This is an interesting paper worth the consideration of everyone in VC. tl;dr: across 9000 anonymised founder profiles LLMs were able to beat VCs at identifying the future winners. My main qualm with the methodology is the definition of success: A founder is considered successful if the company was acquired or had an initial public offering (IPO) above $500M valuation or raised more than $500M in funding. As"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1969118418633633811) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-09-19T19:16Z 5892 followers, 4286 engagements


"This is rooted in venture capital's weak financial literacy and poor grasp of valuation. Most VCs see valuation as something done by MBAs with spreadsheets. In reality it's just adding good theory data and discipline to the judgements they already make anyway. Most importantly valuation (when done properly) not only provides an informed opinion on entry price it also gives you a view on trajectory helping to address future capital formation. Were VCs more concerned with objective success and independent conviction they would approach staged capital more efficiently with valuation. Otherwise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978472729050321209) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5891 followers, XXX engagements


"@TheEthanDing Its just a very different strategy. Founders Fund is not a concentrated investor either by the way. Outside of their incubated companies and core positions they make a lot of smaller investments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979569507916996833) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-18T15:25Z 5891 followers, XXX engagements


"@WillManidis @absoluttig I invested in Revolut in 2017 and have taken 60x that investment out through secondaries alone in the last few months. As a portfolio that's 6x DPI from one investment with XX others still playing out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1961034956085305809) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-08-28T11:55Z 5892 followers, XXX engagements


"@WillManidis @absoluttig Also I'm going to ban you from theory posting about merchant banking until you've actually funded a trading mission to the orient yourself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1961036049561378977) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-08-28T12:00Z 5892 followers, XXX engagements


"Repeated studies have shown that VCs overindex on shallow founder attributes leading to predictably bad investments and missed good investments. The reason this happens is simple: VCs convinced themselves that 'fundraising' is a desirable trait in founders. So a product of incentives and recursive thinking the industry converged on an "ideal founder" archetype that can (therefore) most easily raise capital. Of course this nonsense is eroding returns but it makes investing easier and helps drive capital into their mediocre portfolio. Tough to break the habit. Now had VCs put that burden on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1976335306417725826) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-09T17:13Z 5893 followers, 67.4K engagements


"By addressing uncertainty with incremental signals venture capital becomes myopic focused on incremental growth rather than the potential of ultimate outcomes. Market-based signals also introduce fragility through undiversifiable systematic risk; a contraction may wipe-out fundraising momentum for what should be uncorrelated investments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978472725917118956) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5893 followers, XXX engagements


""In the early days of Valar a lot of VCs passed on us because they didnt believe we could raise the money." Yes VCs will pass on a company out of fear that other VCs will pass on it. This is institutionalised insecurity. Venture capital emerged from opportunity of frontier technologies; huge idiosyncratic risk huge upside potential. Power law meets portfolio strategy. Today it is dominated by low-agency herd animals that have traded that opportunity away for easier personal enrichment and job security. Instead of independent judgement and the implicit accountability they outsource to the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979154299658866977) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-17T11:55Z 5893 followers, 134.3K engagements


"Entrepreneurship has been glorified but for whom This doesn't seem relevant to the Detroit metal startup the Boston biotech or the LA agritech. For San Francisco software startups Yes clearly. This genre of entrepreneurship has been popularised by the media and more recently by an increasingly explicit playbook for achieving success: - Obtain the credentials VCs value - Move to where VCs are - Build what VCs want - Receive capital / status This is an expression of San Francisco's Main Character syndrome as the hub circulating the largest sums of capital. (see: "Buy Local The Geography of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1980243786300088599) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-20T12:04Z 5893 followers, 8841 engagements