[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @credistick Dan Gray Dan Gray posts on X about investment, signals, vc firms, its just the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXX [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX +1,191% - X Month XXXXXXX +324% - X Months XXXXXXX -XX% - X Year XXXXXXXXX +2.10% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/posts_active)  - X Week XX +30% - X Month XX +9.50% - X Months XXX +12% - X Year XXX +17% ### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/followers)  - X Week XXXXX +2.70% - X Month XXXXX +5.50% - X Months XXXXX +48% - X Year XXXXX +193% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) XXXXX% [vc firms](/list/vc-firms) #424 [countries](/list/countries) XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) XXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [investment](/topic/investment) 4.55%, [signals](/topic/signals) #1614, [vc firms](/topic/vc-firms) 1.52%, [its just](/topic/its-just) 1.52%, [llms](/topic/llms) 0.76%, [momentum](/topic/momentum) 0.76%, [$8585t](/topic/$8585t) 0.76%, [money](/topic/money) 0.76%, [upside](/topic/upside) 0.76%, [china](/topic/china) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@jennywxiao](/creator/undefined) [@mprinparr](/creator/undefined) [@peterjwalker](/creator/undefined) [@harrystebbings](/creator/undefined) [@alexfmac](/creator/undefined) [@johncoogan](/creator/undefined) [@pavelprata](/creator/undefined) [@mosessternstein](/creator/undefined) [@provisionalidea](/creator/undefined) [@rodriscoll](/creator/undefined) [@binyamingrobman](/creator/undefined) [@candrewclark](/creator/undefined) [@almostmedia](/creator/undefined) [@peterj_walker](/creator/undefined) [@yrechtman](/creator/undefined) [@jasonlk](/creator/undefined) [@martingtobias](/creator/undefined) [@angellist](/creator/undefined) [@fabricegrinda](/creator/undefined) [@willmanidis](/creator/undefined) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "We evaluated nine state-of-the-art LLMs and found that several outperform not only the market index but also the leading VC firms. (source: VCBench: Benchmarking LLMs in Venture Capital) This is an interesting paper worth the consideration of everyone in VC. tl;dr: across 9000 anonymised founder profiles LLMs were able to beat VCs at identifying the future winners. My main qualm with the methodology is the definition of success: A founder is considered successful if the company was acquired or had an initial public offering (IPO) above $500M valuation or raised more than $500M in funding. As" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1969118418633633811) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-09-19T19:16Z 5888 followers, 4286 engagements "Repeated studies have shown that VCs overindex on shallow founder attributes leading to predictably bad investments and missed good investments. The reason this happens is simple: VCs convinced themselves that 'fundraising' is a desirable trait in founders. So a product of incentives and recursive thinking the industry converged on an "ideal founder" archetype that can (therefore) most easily raise capital. Of course this nonsense is eroding returns but it makes investing easier and helps drive capital into their mediocre portfolio. Tough to break the habit. Now had VCs put that burden on" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1976335306417725826) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-09T17:13Z 5888 followers, 67.3K engagements "Addressing the challenges of staged capital allocation and the reliance on up/downstream partners VC has adopted a practice similar to "convention bidding". In simple terms this is where the terms of a bid (or an investment in this case) carry market signals beyond the face-value of the terms themselves. This analogy to the game bridge (as opposed to the usual poker analogies) is explored in @Alex_Danco's brilliant article "VCs should play bridge". However it's also another example of: 1) VCs revealed preference for affirmation rather than conviction when it comes to making decisions. 2) VCs" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978472722528170102) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5888 followers, 2349 engagements "By addressing uncertainty with incremental signals venture capital becomes myopic focused on incremental growth rather than the potential of ultimate outcomes. Market-based signals also introduce fragility through undiversifiable systematic risk; a contraction may wipe-out fundraising momentum for what should be uncorrelated investments" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978472725917118956) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5888 followers, XXX engagements "@WillManidis @absoluttig Also I'm going to ban you from theory posting about merchant banking until you've actually funded a trading mission to the orient yourself" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1961036049561378977) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-08-28T12:00Z 5888 followers, XXX engagements ""In the early days of Valar a lot of VCs passed on us because they didnt believe we could raise the money." Yes VCs will pass on a company out of fear that other VCs will pass on it. This is institutionalised insecurity. Venture capital emerged from opportunity of frontier technologies; huge idiosyncratic risk huge upside potential. Power law meets portfolio strategy. Today it is dominated by low-agency herd animals that have traded that opportunity away for easier personal enrichment and job security. Instead of independent judgement and the implicit accountability they outsource to the" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979154299658866977) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-17T11:55Z 5888 followers, 133.1K engagements "Heres a paper you probably didnt see on X published by the bipartisan @committeeonccp in February 2024 looking at activity by US VC firms in China. The report focused particularly on five firms: GGV Capital GSR Ventures Qualcomm Ventures Sequoia Capital China and Walden International. US VC investment in the PRC grew in the mid-2000s and exploded the following decade as the U.S. government encouraged investment into the PRC believing that greater economic ties would encourage economic liberalization.318 Unfortunately we have seen the opposite. As U.S. capital flows into PRC advanced" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1945247463226368478) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-07-15T22:21Z 5877 followers, 6022 engagements "It seems to be more or less what you would expect: "Industry-specific human capital also plays a role in explaining venture capital fund performance. In particular venture capital fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in management consulting manage better performing funds. Fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in science and engineering manage better performing funds when a greater fraction of a funds investments are in high-tech industries. Fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in non-venture finance manage better" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1970593330414440945) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-09-23T20:57Z 5883 followers, XX engagements "Great post from @WillManidis about VC's media business and the intent to tap more retail capital via RIAs (see the survey data from @KKR_Co below). As a parallel consider last decade's boom in crypto media devoted to finding talismanic geometry in price charts and prayer-groups around The Halving. The VC version of this is using narratives like AGI and ARR-based "girl math" to pretend that they only invest in growing assets that always only grow. This is why I'm deeply skeptical of retail involvement in VC and particularly the broad push into media. VC's financialisation directly reflects" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1974093116245229862) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-03T12:44Z 5884 followers, 2395 engagements "A few early signals that do not appear to correlate with actual potential (ultimate outcome): - Time to revenue - Total revenue - Revenue growth rate - Funding raised - Round price .and yet these factors command significant attention and capital. Indeed scaling ARR seems to be the only thing that many VCs care about today despite evidence that this erodes statup quality. VC thinking is focused on ARR because it enables investors to reliably print markups on companies with terrible unit economics using simple logic and observable data. No uncertainty about the future no real judgement no risk." [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1974490962840719613) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-04T15:05Z 5880 followers, 11K engagements "This is excellent. Great read. My one small disagreement is with the idea that every venture capitalist reads the same books. I believe a lot more VCs are familiar with Perez Helmer Porter etc but theres very little evidence that this stuff is actually read or well understood" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1976415906051105069) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-09T22:34Z 5885 followers, 1376 engagements "This is rooted in venture capital's weak financial literacy and poor grasp of valuation. Most VCs see valuation as something done by MBAs with spreadsheets. In reality it's just adding good theory data and discipline to the judgements they already make anyway. Most importantly valuation (when done properly) not only provides an informed opinion on entry price it also gives you a view on trajectory helping to address future capital formation. Were VCs more concerned with objective success and independent conviction they would approach staged capital more efficiently with valuation. Otherwise" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978472729050321209) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5886 followers, XXX engagements "ARR multiples are an output of the valuation process not an input. Used as an input they are wildly procyclical incentivising broken economics and questionable accounting. This is precisely why the market was left with 600+ SaaS zombie unicorns after 2022" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978548722121244683) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T19:49Z 5872 followers, 1037 engagements "When Entry Multiples Dont Matter by Alex Immerman and David George:" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1978548853285482583) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-15T19:49Z 5859 followers, XXX engagements "@MartinGTobias Series A from a16z at $50k ARR Those were better days. Great company. 👏" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979089844941828600) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-17T07:39Z 5884 followers, XXX engagements "@Trace_Cohen Sure they'll need to raise again but they'll have half a million dollars and XX months of building to make the value more obvious to the next cohort of investors" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979188443872702748) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-17T14:11Z 5884 followers, XXX engagements "@AlmostMedia @prmshra @atomic_inc @valaratomics @precigenetic I don't just follow you to yap about Istanbul" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979189482977919385) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-17T14:15Z 5884 followers, XX engagements "@YakubuAgbese Consensus or not only matters for discovery. After that point companies have traction and the value becomes more obvious consensus or not" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979323474763223255) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-17T23:07Z 5882 followers, XX engagements "I agree totally with the premise. The primary concern of VCs is to deliver above-benchmark returns to LPs. Innovation is a nice to have at best. I disagree with the conclusion that this therefore makes VC unsuitable for investing in R&D intensive companies. There are a load of biotech success stories with venture backing for example. There is friction with the typical fund life cycle but there are also generally longer durations tolerated today more secondary activity and evergreen fund structures. Its a solvable problem. Lots of VCs struggle with this because their only lens on value is ARR." [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979353186545635369) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-18T01:05Z 5880 followers, XX engagements "@WillManidis @absoluttig I invested in Revolut in 2017 and have taken 60x that investment out through secondaries alone in the last few months. As a portfolio that's 6x DPI from one investment with XX others still playing out" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1961034956085305809) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-08-28T11:55Z 5886 followers, XXX engagements "@TheEthanDing Its just a very different strategy. Founders Fund is not a concentrated investor either by the way. Outside of their incubated companies and core positions they make a lot of smaller investments" [X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1979569507916996833) [@credistick](/creator/x/credistick) 2025-10-18T15:25Z 5886 followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@credistick Dan Gray
Dan Gray posts on X about investment, signals, vc firms, its just the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +1,191%
- X Month XXXXXXX +324%
- X Months XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Year XXXXXXXXX +2.10%
Mentions: XX #
- X Week XX +30%
- X Month XX +9.50%
- X Months XXX +12%
- X Year XXX +17%
Followers: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXX +2.70%
- X Month XXXXX +5.50%
- X Months XXXXX +48%
- X Year XXXXX +193%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence finance XXXXX% vc firms #424 countries XXXX% stocks XXXX% technology brands XXXX% travel destinations XXXX%
Social topic influence investment 4.55%, signals #1614, vc firms 1.52%, its just 1.52%, llms 0.76%, momentum 0.76%, $8585t 0.76%, money 0.76%, upside 0.76%, china XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jennywxiao @mprinparr @peterjwalker @harrystebbings @alexfmac @johncoogan @pavelprata @mosessternstein @provisionalidea @rodriscoll @binyamingrobman @candrewclark @almostmedia @peterj_walker @yrechtman @jasonlk @martingtobias @angellist @fabricegrinda @willmanidis
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"We evaluated nine state-of-the-art LLMs and found that several outperform not only the market index but also the leading VC firms. (source: VCBench: Benchmarking LLMs in Venture Capital) This is an interesting paper worth the consideration of everyone in VC. tl;dr: across 9000 anonymised founder profiles LLMs were able to beat VCs at identifying the future winners. My main qualm with the methodology is the definition of success: A founder is considered successful if the company was acquired or had an initial public offering (IPO) above $500M valuation or raised more than $500M in funding. As"
X Link @credistick 2025-09-19T19:16Z 5888 followers, 4286 engagements
"Repeated studies have shown that VCs overindex on shallow founder attributes leading to predictably bad investments and missed good investments. The reason this happens is simple: VCs convinced themselves that 'fundraising' is a desirable trait in founders. So a product of incentives and recursive thinking the industry converged on an "ideal founder" archetype that can (therefore) most easily raise capital. Of course this nonsense is eroding returns but it makes investing easier and helps drive capital into their mediocre portfolio. Tough to break the habit. Now had VCs put that burden on"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-09T17:13Z 5888 followers, 67.3K engagements
"Addressing the challenges of staged capital allocation and the reliance on up/downstream partners VC has adopted a practice similar to "convention bidding". In simple terms this is where the terms of a bid (or an investment in this case) carry market signals beyond the face-value of the terms themselves. This analogy to the game bridge (as opposed to the usual poker analogies) is explored in @Alex_Danco's brilliant article "VCs should play bridge". However it's also another example of: 1) VCs revealed preference for affirmation rather than conviction when it comes to making decisions. 2) VCs"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5888 followers, 2349 engagements
"By addressing uncertainty with incremental signals venture capital becomes myopic focused on incremental growth rather than the potential of ultimate outcomes. Market-based signals also introduce fragility through undiversifiable systematic risk; a contraction may wipe-out fundraising momentum for what should be uncorrelated investments"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5888 followers, XXX engagements
"@WillManidis @absoluttig Also I'm going to ban you from theory posting about merchant banking until you've actually funded a trading mission to the orient yourself"
X Link @credistick 2025-08-28T12:00Z 5888 followers, XXX engagements
""In the early days of Valar a lot of VCs passed on us because they didnt believe we could raise the money." Yes VCs will pass on a company out of fear that other VCs will pass on it. This is institutionalised insecurity. Venture capital emerged from opportunity of frontier technologies; huge idiosyncratic risk huge upside potential. Power law meets portfolio strategy. Today it is dominated by low-agency herd animals that have traded that opportunity away for easier personal enrichment and job security. Instead of independent judgement and the implicit accountability they outsource to the"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-17T11:55Z 5888 followers, 133.1K engagements
"Heres a paper you probably didnt see on X published by the bipartisan @committeeonccp in February 2024 looking at activity by US VC firms in China. The report focused particularly on five firms: GGV Capital GSR Ventures Qualcomm Ventures Sequoia Capital China and Walden International. US VC investment in the PRC grew in the mid-2000s and exploded the following decade as the U.S. government encouraged investment into the PRC believing that greater economic ties would encourage economic liberalization.318 Unfortunately we have seen the opposite. As U.S. capital flows into PRC advanced"
X Link @credistick 2025-07-15T22:21Z 5877 followers, 6022 engagements
"It seems to be more or less what you would expect: "Industry-specific human capital also plays a role in explaining venture capital fund performance. In particular venture capital fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in management consulting manage better performing funds. Fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in science and engineering manage better performing funds when a greater fraction of a funds investments are in high-tech industries. Fund management teams with more industry-specific human capital in non-venture finance manage better"
X Link @credistick 2025-09-23T20:57Z 5883 followers, XX engagements
"Great post from @WillManidis about VC's media business and the intent to tap more retail capital via RIAs (see the survey data from @KKR_Co below). As a parallel consider last decade's boom in crypto media devoted to finding talismanic geometry in price charts and prayer-groups around The Halving. The VC version of this is using narratives like AGI and ARR-based "girl math" to pretend that they only invest in growing assets that always only grow. This is why I'm deeply skeptical of retail involvement in VC and particularly the broad push into media. VC's financialisation directly reflects"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-03T12:44Z 5884 followers, 2395 engagements
"A few early signals that do not appear to correlate with actual potential (ultimate outcome): - Time to revenue - Total revenue - Revenue growth rate - Funding raised - Round price .and yet these factors command significant attention and capital. Indeed scaling ARR seems to be the only thing that many VCs care about today despite evidence that this erodes statup quality. VC thinking is focused on ARR because it enables investors to reliably print markups on companies with terrible unit economics using simple logic and observable data. No uncertainty about the future no real judgement no risk."
X Link @credistick 2025-10-04T15:05Z 5880 followers, 11K engagements
"This is excellent. Great read. My one small disagreement is with the idea that every venture capitalist reads the same books. I believe a lot more VCs are familiar with Perez Helmer Porter etc but theres very little evidence that this stuff is actually read or well understood"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-09T22:34Z 5885 followers, 1376 engagements
"This is rooted in venture capital's weak financial literacy and poor grasp of valuation. Most VCs see valuation as something done by MBAs with spreadsheets. In reality it's just adding good theory data and discipline to the judgements they already make anyway. Most importantly valuation (when done properly) not only provides an informed opinion on entry price it also gives you a view on trajectory helping to address future capital formation. Were VCs more concerned with objective success and independent conviction they would approach staged capital more efficiently with valuation. Otherwise"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-15T14:47Z 5886 followers, XXX engagements
"ARR multiples are an output of the valuation process not an input. Used as an input they are wildly procyclical incentivising broken economics and questionable accounting. This is precisely why the market was left with 600+ SaaS zombie unicorns after 2022"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-15T19:49Z 5872 followers, 1037 engagements
"When Entry Multiples Dont Matter by Alex Immerman and David George:"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-15T19:49Z 5859 followers, XXX engagements
"@MartinGTobias Series A from a16z at $50k ARR Those were better days. Great company. 👏"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-17T07:39Z 5884 followers, XXX engagements
"@Trace_Cohen Sure they'll need to raise again but they'll have half a million dollars and XX months of building to make the value more obvious to the next cohort of investors"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-17T14:11Z 5884 followers, XXX engagements
"@AlmostMedia @prmshra @atomic_inc @valaratomics @precigenetic I don't just follow you to yap about Istanbul"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-17T14:15Z 5884 followers, XX engagements
"@YakubuAgbese Consensus or not only matters for discovery. After that point companies have traction and the value becomes more obvious consensus or not"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-17T23:07Z 5882 followers, XX engagements
"I agree totally with the premise. The primary concern of VCs is to deliver above-benchmark returns to LPs. Innovation is a nice to have at best. I disagree with the conclusion that this therefore makes VC unsuitable for investing in R&D intensive companies. There are a load of biotech success stories with venture backing for example. There is friction with the typical fund life cycle but there are also generally longer durations tolerated today more secondary activity and evergreen fund structures. Its a solvable problem. Lots of VCs struggle with this because their only lens on value is ARR."
X Link @credistick 2025-10-18T01:05Z 5880 followers, XX engagements
"@WillManidis @absoluttig I invested in Revolut in 2017 and have taken 60x that investment out through secondaries alone in the last few months. As a portfolio that's 6x DPI from one investment with XX others still playing out"
X Link @credistick 2025-08-28T11:55Z 5886 followers, XXX engagements
"@TheEthanDing Its just a very different strategy. Founders Fund is not a concentrated investor either by the way. Outside of their incubated companies and core positions they make a lot of smaller investments"
X Link @credistick 2025-10-18T15:25Z 5886 followers, XXX engagements