# ![@credistick Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::20999409.png) @credistick Dan Gray

Dan Gray posts on X about vcs, dan, in the, ipo the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::20999409/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +21%
- [--] Month [-------] +0.10%
- [--] Months [---------] +41%
- [--] Year [---------] -4.70%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::20999409/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] -13%
- [--] Months [---] +39%
- [--] Year [---] +4.20%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::20999409/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +1.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +4.20%
- [--] Months [-----] +33%
- [--] Year [-----] +104%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::20999409/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::20999409/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  39.45% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  6.42% [vc firms](/list/vc-firms)  3.67% [countries](/list/countries)  3.67% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1.83% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  1.83% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  0.92% [currencies](/list/currencies)  0.92%

**Social topic influence**
[vcs](/topic/vcs) #3254, [dan](/topic/dan) 11.01%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 10.09%, [ipo](/topic/ipo) #190, [investment](/topic/investment) 9.17%, [ai](/topic/ai) 8.26%, [if you](/topic/if-you) 7.34%, [public](/topic/public) 6.42%, [this is](/topic/this-is) 6.42%, [fund](/topic/fund) 4.59%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@endowmenteddie](/creator/undefined) [@jrichlive](/creator/undefined) [@arianghashghai](/creator/undefined) [@edsuh](/creator/undefined) [@litcapital](/creator/undefined) [@joinodin](/creator/undefined) [@yakubuagbese](/creator/undefined) [@etnshow](/creator/undefined) [@daveclark85](/creator/undefined) [@realnishim](/creator/undefined) [@econompic](/creator/undefined) [@quantkris](/creator/undefined) [@sapphirevc](/creator/undefined) [@lukeknight](/creator/undefined) [@ronanchamberss](/creator/undefined) [@samiannoesis](/creator/undefined) [@nikhilvnamburi](/creator/undefined) [@boostvc](/creator/undefined) [@tbpn](/creator/undefined) [@cashflowcowboy](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@martin_casado But the majority of great venture outcomes were non-consensus at inception. 🤷🏼♂ The issue youre highlighting is simply that VC is too mindlessly consensus-oriented rather being truly (ad)venturous"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959614784963539397)  2025-08-24T13:52Z [----] followers, 18.9K engagements


"Having a hard time closing a fund You're not alone. [----] ranks as the most challenging of the last three years for early-stage GPs. I conducted a short survey to understand how early-stage VC is faring gathering data from [--] funds in total (primarily EMs almost all $250M). Amongst the findings there's a clear rebalancing of LP allocation particularly for anchors and multi-stage firms with an overall concentration of LP activity. The commentary offered by GPs also highlighted a few themes like "GP as a brand" and a growing appetite for co-investment opportunities but no real consensus on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1999841813603954731)  2025-12-13T14:00Z [----] followers, 57.3K engagements


"Government VC investment should be in the role of an LP backing indepedent early-stage emerging managers for two important reasons: 1) It delivers better ROI across financial returns job creation and productivity than later-stage investment. 2) Venture capital is structurally uncompetitive suppressing new entrants and novel strategies. Emerging managers offer a wider and more innovative range of strategies providing a broader and more tactile interface between capital and talent. This spreads opportunity more evenly creating fertile ground for entrepreneurship. There is obvious merit with a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2000899149999313000)  2025-12-16T12:01Z [----] followers, 31.3K engagements


"In trying to scale venture capital large funds are essentially attempting to scale risk. However while fund size scales linearly risk does not. Idiosyncratic risk is completely inelastic. Systematic risk is exponential. Execution risk is an unknown. So in order to make venture capital scale large firms must fundamentally change how risk behaves. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008518899118088454 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008518899118088454"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2008518899118088454)  2026-01-06T12:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The topic of "reserves" is one of those areas where venture capital hasn't developed particularly clear thinking particularly for emerging managers. The majority of established firms apply some form of strategy for follow-ons varying from "rare and selective" to "never miss an opportunity". So how should a new firm approach the topic and the related considerations like signalling sunk-cost portfolio support and LP alignment The main lesson is to avoid default behavior or doing reserves becuase you believe they are standard expected or necessarily drive performance. This write-up for @JoinOdin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2011448635293143215)  2026-01-14T14:41Z [----] followers, 50.8K engagements


"The structure of bonus compensation varies significantly across the different categories of LP. Short-term bonuses are driven by total fund performance in 60% of cases and/or specific PE/VC strategy performance in 39% of cases (which will be unevenly distributed across LP types). Typically this is based on the past [--] months of (unrealised) performance. Long-term bonuses function more like carried interest looking at profits achieved beyond a particular hurdle (with or without "lookback") and deferred payments (usually over [--] years). Typically this is based on a [--] year rolling average of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2013964679731679719)  2026-01-21T13:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


""Recent studies argue that the decline in IPO activity since the early 2000s is attributable to the rise of private capital markets. We add to this stream of literature by showing that the supply of venture capital also affects the type of firm going public. Specifically we show that an increase in the flow of venture capital investment to a state leads to a decline in the average quality of IPOs from that state." (source: "The Rise of Venture Capital and IPO Quality") The bar to go public isn't higher; candidate companies are getting worse. A major source of concern is the gap between"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2014332759670432137)  2026-01-22T13:42Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements


"If someone describes market for VC firms as having a "barbell" distribution they are laundering the maturity and stability of other asset classes. VC does not have a barbell distribuition. There aren't independent categories of "boutique specialist" and "large generalist" in competition with each other. Large firms trade capital for strategic deal flow and information. Small firm survival is based on serving large firm interests or navigating around them. It's top-heavy enmeshed and uncompetitive. The alternative is to more formally divide the market into two separate categories like"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2015806706895159313)  2026-01-26T15:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"You can't raise your next fund without showing top decile performance so every manager has top decile performance but only when they raise. Other than the forms of benchmark jiu-jitsu listed by @endowment_eddie below GPs have also been observed inflating portfolio company valuations. "Using novel round-level pricing data we show that VC investment pricing decisions are distorted by fundraising incentives. Before raising another fund VCs boost interim performance by strategically investing in follow-on rounds of current portfolio firms at abnormally high valuations" (source: "Does Fundraising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2016863644261171586)  2026-01-29T13:18Z [----] followers, 17.4K engagements


""Does Fundraising Pressure Incentivize Strategic Venture Capital Deal Pricing" by Peter K. Pham Nick Turner Jason Zein: "Interim Fund Performance and Fundraising in Private Equity" by Brad M. Barber and Davis Ayako Yasuda: "Unicorns Media Fame and Dumb Money: The Strategic Inflation of Unicorn Startups' Valuations" by S. Joseph Shin Sunu Kim and Haemin Dennis Park: "Fund performance data unhelpful for LPs when it counts" byEmily Burleson: "We Have Met the Enemy And He is Us: Lessons from Twenty Years of the Kauffman Foundations Investments in Venture Capital Funds and the Triumph of Hope Over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2016863831402684422)  2026-01-29T13:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"We find that less profitable companies with higher investment needs are more likely to IPO. After going public these firms increase their investments in both tangible and intangible assets relative to comparable firms that remain private. Importantly they finance this increased investment not just through equity but also by raising more debt capital and expanding the number of banks they borrow from suggesting the IPO facilitates their overall ability to raise funds. Even a company like SpaceX eventually hits a scale where private capital is unnecessarily expensive. The real exception to the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017746924137337303)  2026-01-31T23:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I was too afraid of going public. I have been very outspoken about staying private as long as possible but I dont think its that necessary to do that. -@finkd Going public isnt easy. Nothing about building a company is. That doesnt mean its not the right choice. Why dont private companies want to go public Figma. Why dont private companies want to go public Figma"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2018443062771699898)  2026-02-02T21:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Reminder: You invest in a company not a stock price. If you are used to illiquid marks this may feel unnatural but get comfortable with the idea that liquid stock will fluctuate especially for young IPOs. All that matters is the long-term direction built on fundamentals. If short-term volatility is going to kill your conviction stick to index funds. Yes @figma is down significantly but there are two important considerations: 1) It's common for companies to see a price dip around lockup expiry. Hype dies down interest moves on insiders want liquidity. All natural. This has no real correlation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2019080066563506324)  2026-02-04T16:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@YakubuAgbese Agreed. The problem is when it has nothing to do with finding PMF and everything to do with a myopic arms-race for growth. Im not denying some of these companies may end up doing well its just the systemic aspect of it all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2019484290308821496)  2026-02-05T18:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"❌ Companies stay private longer because exits are harder. ✅ Exits are harder because companies stay private longer. Great time chatting with @lukeknight and @Ronanchamberss about the slowdown of venture-backed IPOs on @etnshow. The golden rule: All great companies go public so if it's not yet public then it's not yet great. The bar to IPO feels higher today because companies spend longer in (and raise more from) private markets with divergent incentives. Public markets: Reporting transparency rewards all-round performance and business health. Private markets: Myopic focus on growth rewards"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2019767647995351533)  2026-02-06T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@samiannoesis @MrGoldBro @DavidPSawyer Microsoft and AOL offer to buy out Synapse Media Player a high school project he codeveloped yeah. Impressive technical project but not a company no business model etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2020096587393826966)  2026-02-07T11:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If you convince everyone that San Francisco is the place to be for tech startups you create potent network effects*. Unfortunately the religious belief in these effects has eliminated consequences for misbehaviour; San Francisco has become too big to fail. After a decade or two of heat with little substance the result is greater regional concentration. As the market cools peripheral hubs are frozen out. The US needs antifragile venture capital more widely distributed and decentralised. The pyramidal structure (enmeshed and hierarchical) is bad for the market. Indeed research shows that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2020193660113940923)  2026-02-07T17:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Has there been another era in venture where VCs found broad consensus on category winners just 2-3 years in Referring particularly to the post-LLM startups and the use of accelerating ARR milestones as proof of success. Leaders dont really clear the pack until around year [--] and even then nothing is certain until exit. The impatience of it all feels unnatural. Civilization is not inherited; it has to be learned and earned by each generation anew; if the transmission should be interrupted for one century civilization would die and we should be savages again. - The Lessons of History by Will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2020554198606291035)  2026-02-08T17:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If venture capital is a strategy built on relationships and experience why do emerging managers consistently outperform as a group It turns out outsiders with small funds and new ideas are a powerful source of positive alpha for a few important reasons including: - Limited enmeshment with other firms perserving good process and judgement. - Meaningful returns from outcomes that aren't so large as to nuke returns with consensus. - Able to wait for the right opportunities rather than pressure to put capital to work. In fact emerging managers are a better reflection of venture capital's original"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2020846469046002091)  2026-02-09T13:05Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements


"@daveclark85 @ankurnagpal @JoinOdin I might agree if we were only looking CA data which is pretty limited. But it's CA it's PitchBook it's Greenspring it's Kauffman. Everybody that has attempted to answer this question appears to have come to the same conclusion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2020859844375261593)  2026-02-09T13:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I'm in the middle of writing a long piece on "Casino Capitalism" but I might just delete it all and submit this. Prediction markets breaking because people are layering predictions to produce synthetic alpha is the PERFECT metaphor to explain why the economy is rotten. There's been [--] years of unabated financialisation rather than the typical 40-60 year cycles of financialisation and industrialisation or "installation" and "deployment" stages to borow from @CarlotaPrzPerez. I worry that people and particularly politicians have forgotten what it is like to exist in an economy focused on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2021234361320829305)  2026-02-10T14:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Alex_Danco Later/larger exits emerged because of larger VC funds not vice-versa. And the negative impact on venture-backed IPOs is well documented"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2021345115185549552)  2026-02-10T22:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"99% of venture capitalists managing other people's money under 10-year fund structures with neat deployment periods neat LPAs and neat harvest periods don't have this luxury. They must invest. They must be busy. They must deploy. This self-evidently is a doom loop. You raise money you can't deploy well under constraints that prevent you from doing the obvious thing so you do the non-obvious thing instead and then you invent reasons why the non-obvious thing will eventually work out. https://t.co/qNAVuG3xsz https://t.co/qNAVuG3xsz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2021365136770969709)  2026-02-10T23:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@YakubuAgbese Outcomes being warped by meta-predictions does seem to break the prediction markets truth machine premise. e.g. its inflating the perceived likelihood of something happening by betting on that stated likelihood rather than the outcome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2021499151444476074)  2026-02-11T08:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Venture capital does not look like other mature asset classes. There is not a distinct class of boutique investor with a specific target / risk profile / exit path. Its all enmeshed. The small firms are massively exposed to the large firms through signalling dilution and access to follow-on capital and LP capital. There is no barbelling its just a shrinking group of small firms that have so far managed to survive in this market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021503238927785996 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021503238927785996"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2021503238927785996)  2026-02-11T08:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@nikhilvnamburi @endowment_eddie https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/4903872.pdf https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/4903872.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022052461285163109)  2026-02-12T20:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Only for the higher tiers of CF and A which is fine. The lower tiers are more relaxed. Equity crowdfunding for smaller rounds at earlier stages is great. Im totally supportive of that for two reasons: 1) its not driven by institutional investors looking for exit liquidity 2) theres very little information asymmetry between retail and institutional investors at the earliest stages Its a great way for companies to get funding to get off the ground without needing to play the VC game. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022626290382065935 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022626290382065935"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022626290382065935)  2026-02-14T10:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Massive information asymmetry. Look at the [----] cohort of IPOs to see how readily VCs will dump overhyped bad assets in retail in a hot market. Its just not reasonable to give retail access to a market where they are heavily disadvantaged and expect it to go well. Its also a bandaid fix. The real solution is to realign VC with producing great companies and shipping them public earlier. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022626970127753465 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022626970127753465"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022626970127753465)  2026-02-14T11:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@REALNishiM For sure not every company is destined to go public"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022648769121259699)  2026-02-14T12:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The main reason "VC is hard" is because managers insist on it being an artisanal and entrepreneurial process rather than a financial service. Instead of developing best practices on portfolio construction and following data to avoid biases or negative patterns they talk about "the craft of venture" and throw capital on the hottest-burning bonfire. If they acted more like financiers (which they are) and less like founders (which they arent) their returns would be better and their lives would be easier. Most people dunking on VCs miss something crucial: VC partners are basically founders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1863583845624213825)  2024-12-02T13:59Z [----] followers, 411.8K engagements


"It's incredibly dull listening to VCs talk about expectations for growth rates with AI. If you sell a dollar worth of compute (for 80c) and get a 100x multiple on that revenue you can raise an infinite amount of cash to grow a business with negative economics and no moat for future profit. It was the same for SaaS in 2011-2022. You could feed in endless growth capital and print markups for over a decade but that doesn't result in good businesses or good outcomes. If the whole industry fetishises these companies for the short-term incentives everything important will be left behind. Again. And"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2019469126662504827)  2026-02-05T17:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"There is some cart-before-horse logic here. The premise is that companies go public later grow larger and there are more of them at scale therefore VC can grow into this opportunity. The reality is the opposite. VC funds grew post-NSMIA VCs have encouraged companies to remain private longer leading to inflated exits with more top line revenue. The negative downstream consequences of this are evident in public markets. Largely that public market investors dont really care for VC-backed IPOs which now arrive with slower growth worse financial health and retain significant risk. Overall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2021299166496854196)  2026-02-10T19:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I dont believe LLMs are a path to AGI (assuming anyone can agree what AGI means) so I dont really see any of the labs developing a major lead. Gemini Claude Grok and GPT will have similar dynamics to AWS Google Cloud and Azure. Take this as you will; Im no AI researcher. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022435928648921396 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022435928648921396"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022435928648921396)  2026-02-13T22:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@elocinationn @gdibner 💯 And the lack of market feedback makes VCs overindex on groupthink and simple heuristics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022453771566223769)  2026-02-13T23:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The central point of the post below is that risk is the product of venture capital and some managers understand that better than others. Many of the replies talk about the futility of 'financial engineering' and how concepts like portfolio construction are less relevant to early stage VC due to the greater uncertainty and subjectivity. This is the Rubinization of venture capital built on the ego-driven idea that picking is the source of all alpha. Investors have embraced their role as tastemakers only accountable to their own intuition. They are correct to an extent: there is no magic formula"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1863907991814107337)  2024-12-03T11:27Z [----] followers, 37.8K engagements


"Only 1/3 of VCs make it to a Fund [--]. Only 1/10 make it to a Fund [--]. The primary cause of that churn is badly managed risk. Risk is the product of VC like adrenaline is the product of skydiving: You could get more of it if you jumped without a parachute but more isn't always better. Good investors sell well-managed risk via portfolios optimised for generating alpha amidst a uniquely high rate of failure. Bad investors sell confidence. (It's fitting that @BoostVC one of the examples of good risk management has just announced a Fund 4.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1972652617160442209)  2025-09-29T13:20Z [----] followers, 20.5K engagements


"Venture capital is not competitive; it's adversarial. The difference is that truly competitive games are "infinite" where the scale of success matters as much as actually winning. While San Francisco's tech scene was originally built on the infinite game of human progress venture capital no longer exhibits the same positive-sum traits. Capital and influence are increasingly centralised enabling rent-seeking behavior which neither rewards LPs nor empowers entrepreneurs. Indeed a common impression today is that: - there are a limited number of good deals each year - those deals are implicitly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1986444303770481119)  2025-11-06T14:43Z [----] followers, 87.7K engagements


"@edsuh This is something we dont think about enough. Clearly there is evidence that going public very early can lead to the creation of generational businesses. Id argue its actually more favourable to that end as private market incentives make companies fragile over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2020623995092214128)  2026-02-08T22:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The Science and Engineering Indicators report from [----] covered a range of topics including the struggle to understand the impact of IT on employment and productivity. Both have interesting parallels with the adoption of AI. e.g. Industry spending on IT equipment rose from under $200 billion in [----] to over $600 billion in [----] yet economy-wide productivity gains only became measurable in the latter half of that period. Measurement was most difficult in services where IT's impact was felt the most and where AI's impact is most concentrated today. Ultimately IT-producing industries accounted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022096424653975863)  2026-02-12T23:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@yrechtman @DanielMrkMiller Except for the small fund VCs who try to play (or are explicitly funded to feed) the big fund consensus capital game and get crushed. Theyre just unfortunate collateral"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022478684020428929)  2026-02-14T01:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@draecomino Its the way it played out in the 90s and early 2000s. Wage suppression hurt some categories of employment but many new job categories were created that could not have been imagined at the outset. The Science and Engineering Indicators report from [----] covered a range of topics including the struggle to understand the impact of IT on employment and productivity. Both have interesting parallels with the adoption of AI. e.g. Industry spending on IT equipment rose from https://t.co/gBoYzSV3OV The Science and Engineering Indicators report from [----] covered a range of topics including"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022480673227903230)  2026-02-14T01:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The new jobs are necessarily things that AI cannot do arising from new unmet needs in a world with ubiquitous AI. Its hard to imagine but its the same way it played out in the initial computerisation wave nobody at the time could have imagined the jobs that would be created. The Science and Engineering Indicators report from [----] covered a range of topics including the struggle to understand the impact of IT on employment and productivity. Both have interesting parallels with the adoption of AI. e.g. Industry spending on IT equipment rose from https://t.co/gBoYzSV3OV The Science and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022481436037550308)  2026-02-14T01:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"An IPO Light regime defeats the purpose. The reporting requirements and scrutiny are precisely why the cost of capital is lower in public markets. Companies stay private longer now yes and that is partially due to SOx raising the cost of going public but it is primarily because of the inflation of private markets. The central problem is private capital abundance and incentives to fois gras companies with cash for markups and then dump them at IPO. Thats why venture-backed IPOs are larger and so often produce underperformance. Theyre just less attractive assets."  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022623602030317830)  2026-02-14T10:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Venture Capital and Firm Performance Over the Long-Run: Evidence from High-Tech IPOs in the United States by James R. Brown: Technology timing of IPOs and venture capital incubation by Hung-Chia Scott Hsu: Pre-IPO growth venture capital and the long-run performance of IPOs by Jiangjing Que and Xueyong Zhang: Scalability venture capital availability and unicorns: Evidence from the valuation and timing of IPOs by Deepak Somaya and Jingya You: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883902623000599 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264999318318534"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022689637869769023)  2026-02-14T15:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jrichlive @litcapital It has more to do with NSMIA and the inflation of private markets than it does to do with Sarbanes-Oxley. https://jhfinance.web.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/12369/2017/11/2018TheEvolutionofthePrivateEquityMarketandtheDeclineinIPOs.pdf https://jhfinance.web.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/12369/2017/11/2018TheEvolutionofthePrivateEquityMarketandtheDeclineinIPOs.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022726151488295285)  2026-02-14T17:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"There is an epidemic failure within venture capital to understand what is really happening. This leads people who run firms to misjudge founders and mismanage their funds. People who manage venture firms they think in terms of buying logos. Your goal shouldnt be to buy logos. Your goal should be to buy exits. In order to buy exits you need to buy risk. Youre trying to replace Adam Neumann. Andreessen Horowitz see Adam Neumann and they see a star whos worth $350 million. When I see Adam Neumann what I see is an imperfect understanding of where risk comes from. The guys got insane rizz. Hes a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2015095292438143395)  2026-01-24T16:12Z [----] followers, 30K engagements


"According to a survey of [---] VCs (at [---] firms) on the most important component of generating returns: - 49% said deal selection - 27% said value-add - 23% said deal flow While these answers broadly reflect the common perception of venture capital investing they don't accurately reflect the data. In reality selection is messy and inconsistent and value-add is questionable while deal flow is fundamental and often underprioritised despite research emphasising the importance. As a matter of simple maths VCs can achieve better investment outcomes with a relatively minor improvement to their pool"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2015412306541158496)  2026-01-25T13:11Z [----] followers, 55.2K engagements


"I need to say something that might be uncomfortable. We are living through the most important transition in human history. I don't say that lightly. I've spent the last eighteen months thinking deeply http://x.com/i/article/2021896342814035968 http://x.com/i/article/2021896342814035968"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2021955173501780322)  2026-02-12T14:30Z [----] followers, 46K engagements


"Capital has a convex relationship with success at both ends of private markets entry and exit. Research indicates that when startups raise too little they have a lower rate of success. And when they raise too much they will fail more often. The same is true for startups at IPO. Raising the right amount of venture capital and growing the right amount is correlated with stronger performance post-IPO. Raise too little and a company might lack the R&D edge to create sustainable competitive moat to defend value in public markets. The findings show that venture-backed firms do engage in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022689592327946249)  2026-02-14T15:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@litcapital Anthropic will go public [--] years after founding. If you dont believe theres an incredible growth story for public markets then it certainly cannot support its valuation today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022726621946425702)  2026-02-14T17:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Valuations are predicated on future potential. These companies are likely to go public this year leaving two possible conclusions: 1) Public markets will be able to ride the continued growth for many years. 2) They are so grossly overvalued that future growth is already priced-in. If its the former retail will do great. If its the latter theres a huge amount of risk in these prices and insiders may just be looking for liquidity. Either way theres no good argument for expanding private market access to retail investors who suffer from huge information asymmetry. Kinda insane how there are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022728239194533996)  2026-02-14T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@jrichlive @litcapital Yeah I dont deny both played a part (as well as Dodd-Frank the JOBS Act) but the primary driver is the inflation of private markets. Without that none of the rest would matter; I ts the root of the incentives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022746316770541698)  2026-02-14T18:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@jrichlive @litcapital Its not circular. The evidence is clear that the problem started with the inflation of private equity post-NSMIA. Sarbanes-Oxley makes smaller IPOs more difficult but it does not explain the incredible top-heaviness of the market today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2022749008230596705)  2026-02-14T19:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@haridigresses @houmanasefi Yeah I suspect the big labs going public will lead to little more than a minor Mag-7 dip via reallocation. We enter bubble territory in the months/years after if theres a surge of mediocre AI companies going public to ride the hype like previous cycles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2023104642696036467)  2026-02-15T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Its under-appreciated that @johncoogan and @jordihays just have incredible love for the game. Theres no other motive for their influence. No weird incentives. Theyre not going to spin-up a fund or launch a token. They could have had an easier time if they raised capital and hit some headlines but they chose to slug it out. So the show requires no approval except their own. They get to speak their mind and bring on guests that do the same. Thats why @tbpn is more important and more durable than any flash-in-the-pan media strategy. Rage Baiting is for Losers Yesterday YC announced Chad IDE aka"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1988760086072721808)  2025-11-13T00:05Z [----] followers, 25.9K engagements


"Cambridge Associates says you shouldnt derive meaning from fund returns until year [--]. AngelList data shows VC portfolio TVPI growth flatlines in year [--]. Partners move to new firms after an average of [--] years. This is just a coincidence. Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care) When I first got into venture capital I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least they felt Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care) When I first got into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1989048564572422148)  2025-11-13T19:11Z [----] followers, 30.5K engagements


"More peak COVID rather than ZIRP in that it was financially solid but died when people returned to in-person events. I thought it was a cool platform and a generally good idea collabs with [---] Startups Techstars Entrepreneur First etc. An online demo day still seems valuable for dispersed startups raising capital as an addition to typical accelerator demo days. Related the write-up of their various pivots from @ali_moiz is great: https://ali-moiz.medium.com/stonks-11-pivots-later-4364dc3aa89c https://ali-moiz.medium.com/stonks-11-pivots-later-4364dc3aa89c"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1998194171706753209)  2025-12-09T00:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


""Venture Capital's Access Myth" by Greenspring Associates: "Short-Term America Revisited Boom and Bust in the Venture Capital Industry and the Impact on Innovation" by Paul Gompers and Josh Lerner: "PitchBook Analyst Note: Establishing a Case for Emerging Managers" byZane Carmean Susan Hu Kaidi Gao and Van LeApril: "Venture Capital Positively Disrupts Intergenerational Investing" by David Thurston: "Venture Capital Disrupts Itself: Breaking the Concentration Curse" by Cambridge Associates: "Venture Industrial Policy" https://credistick.com/venture-industrial-policy/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2000899929259028526)  2025-12-16T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Case in point: venture-backed IPOs have performed terribly in recent years. This is what happens when fragile revenue growth meets public markets. The bar to go public hasnt really gotten higher its that the quality of companies has fallen and fewer can make it out. From [----] to [----] capital was funneled into software businesses creating brittle growth with terrible unit economics. Theres a whole generation of The bar to go public hasnt really gotten higher its that the quality of companies has fallen and fewer can make it out. From [----] to [----] capital was funneled into software businesses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2010069266465460514)  2026-01-10T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


""Venture" is simple. Find credentialled people in hot categories and juice their signal until you get dumb money momentum. Sell this as a scalable vehicle that stabilises LP portfolio performance via synthetic marks wrapped in an appealing mission like national security. Venture is simple. Find where a small number of people can create absurd leverage and back them before the labor market understands their worth. EEs/Physicists doing semis in the 50s-60s Top Tier Software Engineers doing Software in the 80s/90s The list goes on Venture is simple. Find where a small number of people can create"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2010757480318714027)  2026-01-12T16:55Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements


"Yep that's broadly the conclusion: avoid a defined reserves allocation but retain the flexibility for limited follow-on in situations where it may save a portfolio company you've got extreme conviction in. (Also don't deny yourself the opportunity to run limited experiments and learn.) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011457155656745203 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011457155656745203"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2011457155656745203)  2026-01-14T15:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"A good illustration of why LPs may be wary of a bolted-on reserves strategy courtesy of the @SapphireVC simulation data. Reserves often end up reducing net fund multiples but only expand management fees potentially misaligning incentives. If you decide to include reserves in your portfolio strategy be very clear on: 1) How you monitor portfolio company progress to make effective follow-on decisions. 2) Your assumed math of the eventual outcomes with the net influence on fund performance. i.e. both the strategic/qualitative logic of the reserves strategy plus the quantitative outcome. (The IRR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2012514711825248587)  2026-01-17T13:17Z [----] followers, 15.2K engagements


"One effective framework for monitoring portfolio company progress is the Bell Mason Diagnostic: Building a process around this is a central part of the @AngelSpanInc platform that streamlines investment updates. https://www.mandalorepartners.com/research/bell-mason-key-value-curve-for-vcaas https://www.mandalorepartners.com/research/bell-mason-key-value-curve-for-vcaas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2012516542903099562)  2026-01-17T13:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Cashflow_Cowboy Not so much for the Series C/D investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2014460158307352762)  2026-01-22T22:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BraytonKey @arian_ghashghai @BoostVC Probably related to the collapse of emerging managers that often back the outsider stuff. 🧵1/ For decades venture has expanded practically by default: more funds more managers more capital. After 20+ years we are now facing the firstmeaningfulindustry-wide contraction since the dot-com collapse with the smallest active investor base in more than [--] years. https://t.co/qnNCancQ2m 🧵1/ For decades venture has expanded practically by default: more funds more managers more capital. After 20+ years we are now facing the firstmeaningfulindustry-wide"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2014815612539744417)  2026-01-23T21:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Hard to describe without writing a long piece about the strategy and approach of each so I'll outsource it @DStrachman's episode with @MollySOShea: @mhdempsey's episode with @TurnerNovak @nunzi46's episode with @alexklein0x: https://www.youtube.com/watchv=GGpJm8A4brQ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=UzSbG6DL8CM https://www.youtube.com/watchv=KZI1oeQ85Ic https://www.youtube.com/watchv=UzSbG6DL8CM https://www.youtube.com/watchv=KZI1oeQ85Ic https://www.youtube.com/watchv=GGpJm8A4brQ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=UzSbG6DL8CM https://www.youtube.com/watchv=KZI1oeQ85Ic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2015544867334631747)  2026-01-25T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Read the full article: https://credistick.com/who-does-the-series-b/ https://credistick.com/who-does-the-series-b/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2015806846653596149)  2026-01-26T15:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"VC fundraising is typically dominated by Asia although thats really driven by China. Two key points to understand this: 1) Theres a significant reporting lag before the data properly reflects Chinas influence on fundraising in Asia (3 years). 2) This includes (and is skewed by) Chinas Government Guidance funds which are designed to stimulate industry. Assuming the historical pattern holds which isnt a given the data should eventually look something like the below. So in terms of funds raised Asia appears larger and less cyclical than the US though its not clear how much of the committed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2015876615834615815)  2026-01-26T19:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@EdLudlow @beffjezos Given the co-founder implosion and lack of product Id say it looks a lot like a Seed round"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2015882776176738697)  2026-01-26T20:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@fjeg1987 @edsuh Or just apply a public multiple to the revenue which would be fairly conservative. Unfortunately the industry at large has a (deliberately) poor understanding of valuation. Most prefer to leave marks to the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2016423982149341208)  2026-01-28T08:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@PeterJ_Walker @edsuh I suspect the answer is that theyd give Fund A a hard time about the dumb markup logic but generally prefer exposure to the hot companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2016426241688064022)  2026-01-28T08:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@arian_ghashghai @endowment_eddie Go back through my highlights and you'll see a few papers that will induce a full-blown anxiety attack about this industry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2016870657414308044)  2026-01-29T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@endowment_eddie @arian_ghashghai For sure a couple of the papers above look at the same phenomena in PE as well as VC. The problem isn't isolated to VC but I'd wager that's where it's worst; it has the greatest opacity weakest financial literacy most dogmatic beliefs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2016872621942464813)  2026-01-29T13:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@AlmostMedia @endowment_eddie RIP Bin [--] 🪦"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2016936966915256696)  2026-01-29T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Everything is basically a DCF. Every investment is predicated on expected outcome.* The math of expected dilution and failure rate means pre-seed investors need to target a 200x return. (Seed 95x Series A 40x etc) If a $2B outcome is a reasonable expectation that's $10M entry. If it's more ambitous say $10B you can stretch that out to $50M but you're taking more concentrated risk which implicitly makes it a large fund proposition. Over time across future rounds you can revise that exit target up or down (as the required multiple also compresses with lower dilution / lower risk of failure) as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2016941988332130814)  2026-01-29T18:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@arian_ghashghai @GordonBrianR None of which stops investors from inflating marks for short term incentives. The only way to square that circle is the whole topic of structural secondaries so theres real buysell tension"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2016946775890813232)  2026-01-29T18:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"As long as VCs behave like their job is factory farming ARR the industry will maintain a myopic self-referential relationship with revenue multiples. e.g. if all beef trades at the same $/pound you keep cattle in feedlots and pump them with steroids and antibiotics to maximise output. But public markets want quality pasture-raised and organic so mutant VC-reared cattle trade at a much lower $/pound. Why would anyone have any expectation of a revenue multiple Makes no sense. Why would anyone have any expectation of a revenue multiple Makes no sense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017233316236214452)  2026-01-30T13:47Z [----] followers, 10K engagements


"There's some truth to that yeah. Research shows that a lot of the best private companies have been held private to print markups but eventually they become to large and slow to excite public markets. So for sure a great company that gets picked-off by an acquisition before it's stuck on the VC treadmill might be the best outcome. https://x.com/credistick/status/2014332759670432137 https://x.com/credistick/status/2014332759670432137"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017261163789033709)  2026-01-30T15:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@EconomPic That the share price has fallen since IPO does not mean the stock wasnt underpriced on day one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017325625552314708)  2026-01-30T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@EconomPic The bigger complaint is not the value that VCs missed (when theyre mostly tied in lockup anyway) but the capital the company could have raised"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017329760217518483)  2026-01-30T20:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"His point was that (particularly at that point) private capital was cheap for great companies. So raise more while private use it to get to a good place for a direct listing where you will not have structural underpricing. Its hard to frame this as predatory VC behavior (pumping exits) when he was also vocal about properly judging valuations for late-stage companies / having good financial health"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017335875735040088)  2026-01-30T20:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@EconomPic But IPO underpricing IS a problem and the investor/underwriter incentives have been well studied. https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPOs-Underpricing.pdf https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPOs-Underpricing.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017337907313295630)  2026-01-30T20:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@matt_slotnick Everything is a DCF; every investment is a question of discounted future expectations. Even revenue multiples are just a compressed DCF. Wake me up when VCs understand that a DCF doesnt need to be a complex excel model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017722119409275318)  2026-01-31T22:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Part I Slow Takeoff begins with the short story Lobsters which opens in early-21st century Amsterdam. Here we see Manfred Macx a venture altruist going about his business making business ideas happen for others and promoting development. In the course of things Manfred receives a call on a courier-delivered phone from entities claiming to be a net-based AI working through a KGB website seeking his help on how to defect. Eventually he discovers the callers are actually uploaded brain-scans of the California spiny lobster looking to escape from humanitys interference. This leads Macx to team up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017725885143458045)  2026-01-31T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@arian_ghashghai Not trying to put words in @oanaolts mouth here but I read that as supporting founders through a pivot writing a check even when metrics arent panning out yet etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017728132321587389)  2026-01-31T22:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JasonrShuman This would be a problem if VC was broadly still an alpha-seeking industry. The strategy du jour is to herd as much capital as possible into the sector youre active in. https://credistick.com/there-is-no-alpha-but-only-beta-to-the-center/ https://credistick.com/there-is-no-alpha-but-only-beta-to-the-center/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017739541403058268)  2026-01-31T23:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"In [----] Adobe tried to buy Figma for $20 billion. Regulators decided to block it so Big Tech had to find a side door. And the side door was going public by IPO which is what all great companies should aim for. Agree with much of the sentiment of the article but this example (which was also textbook antitrust) was a miss. Reverse acquihires became a thing because the LLM gold rush produced companies with no IP value or technical moats just collections of valuable research talent. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017950855215919338 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017950855215919338"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2017950855215919338)  2026-02-01T13:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Another way to look at this: number of funds per $1B raised which has been on a steady drift downwards since at least [----]. As systems grow larger they tend to consolidate power. This is explained in Michels Iron Law of Oligarchy which looks at the imperatives of modern organisations and the habit of seeking centralised authority at scale. This is why venture capital has shifted from eccentric capitalism to the hierarchical corralling of capital into particular themes and networks for rent extraction. There is no more alpha only beta to the centre. (PitchBook changed the methodology in their"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2018034732274246044)  2026-02-01T18:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This is a great read Id just like to fill-in one blank for you: Companies are taking longer to IPO (and performing poorly once public) by design. It is beneficial for VC to hold fast-growing companies private and squeeze the juice out before dumping them. This has created an environment where the highly valued companies in private markets often arent even particularly attractive investments. "Recent studies argue that the decline in IPO activity since the early 2000s is attributable to the rise of private capital markets. We add to this stream of literature by showing that the supply of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2018050990717411719)  2026-02-01T19:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Venture capital has spent the last [--] years hiding behind the "power law" claiming aggregate returns are meaningless in an outlier industry. During that time performance has slipped sigfnificantly as inflated funds have been drawn to scalable consensus ideas that efficiently convert capital into NAV at a attractive multiple. Thus technological progress has stagnated in a period where capital to fund innovation and related capital expenditures was most abundant. Opportunity for founders has become less well distributed as investors pursue flawed archetypes of "fundability" rather than genuine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2018345219050082614)  2026-02-02T15:26Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements


"I should have used this as the top image: Venture capital has spent the last [--] years hiding behind the "power law" claiming aggregate returns are meaningless in an outlier industry. During that time performance has slipped sigfnificantly as inflated funds have been drawn to scalable consensus ideas that efficiently https://t.co/3iUnNeUXUj Venture capital has spent the last [--] years hiding behind the "power law" claiming aggregate returns are meaningless in an outlier industry. During that time performance has slipped sigfnificantly as inflated funds have been drawn to scalable consensus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2018436450505629849)  2026-02-02T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"From @PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor Q4 [----] https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q4-2025-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q4-2025-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2018436635793244623)  2026-02-02T21:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@E_Bruxxx Every GP should read this: https://medium.com/@DelJohnsonVC/ban-warm-introductions-1e69169d57ba https://medium.com/@DelJohnsonVC/ban-warm-introductions-1e69169d57ba"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2019088838849683685)  2026-02-04T16:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@sarah_cone Reminds me of a conversation Rogan had with a UFC fighter about the importance of training against lower level opponents so you get lots of reps on finishes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2019127114847645965)  2026-02-04T19:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"You can connect the dots between the mainstreaming of crypto and Thiels email to Zuckerberg. When one has too much student debt or if housing is too unaffordable then one will have negative capital for a long time and/or find it very hard to start accumulating capital in the form of real estate; and if one has no stake in the capitalist system then one may well turn against it. Whatever Bitcoin set out to achieve it became the promise of a parallel and more accessible economy. It made prosperity feel achievable via a side-exit from financialisation (although crypto is now increasingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2019203617505570950)  2026-02-05T00:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Cashflow_Cowboy Such an underrated post"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2019481046203470095)  2026-02-05T18:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Yeah which is essentially a consequence of being fois grased with private capital. The objective of VC changed from "producing returns" to "finding places to put capital". And I'm not even convinced the mythical companies end up being particularly great outcomes for later investors (unless they dump their bags in secondaries)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2019787583887126954)  2026-02-06T14:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@robleclerc @lukeknight @Ronanchamberss @etnshow .I don't know if I'd classify that as "expectations are higher" though. Public markets are more selective but that's because they're being served a lot of reheated bullshit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/2019787836531118431)  2026-02-06T14:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The concentration is already underway. The five largest US VC funds captured 44% of new funding in Q1. Its difficult to frame that as returning to a healthy status quo. Its worth considering the influence of a multi-stage brand name firm like Lux writing an open letter about the extinction of small managers. On one hand it will make LPs reluctant to back that class of VC which takes some competition out of the market for Lux. On the other it may be dangerously shortsighted. As @Trace_Cohen has been saying small firms and EMs help VC cast a much wider net early on which is crucial for catching"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1828016315669340610)  2024-08-26T10:27Z [----] followers, 138.6K engagements


""VC isnt what it used to be. The days of boutique firms elbowing each other aside for the best deals have been replaced by an elite cohort of GPs dictating rules and valuations." - @_RosieBradbury In [----] of all venture dollars raised: Andreessen Horowitz - 11% General Catalyst - 9.1% Thrive Capital - 8.4% The [--] largest firms - 75% All emerging managers combined - 13.9% LPs complain about a lack of liquidity and then line up to invest in the firms chiefly responsible for this mess. When performance is generally poor they pick the end of the market that charges higher fees and delivers worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1867369850298908732)  2024-12-13T00:44Z [----] followers, 87.3K engagements


"Why are so many startups pitching the same ideas This is the result of startup catering where founders work on the problems they believe VCs care about rather than problems they are connected to. It occurs whenever there is a strong and vocal consensus amongst investors on the opportunity of the day. e.g. agents vertical AI gaming etc. Obviously this is a negative influence on innovation. The purpose of startups is to build novel solutions which others are unable to anticipate. Consequently the best VCs focus (at most) on broad problem areas rather than solutions. Catering is the cost of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1868589612269969859)  2024-12-16T09:30Z [----] followers, 90.1K engagements


"Should VCs bet on the 'horse' or the 'jockey' Broadly speaking there were three theories behind early venture investing: Tom Perkins (@kleinerperkins) focused on tech. Don Valentine (@sequoia) focused on markets. Arthur Rock (Davis & Rock) focused on people. This is in contrast to VC today where every firm presents as "founder first" in order to maximise dealflow the strategy du jour. You've probably heard this reflected in the trope "Venture is a game of jockeys not horses." Looking specifically at early stage VC and those three initial factors here's the proportion of investors that rated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1873768501518774615)  2024-12-30T16:29Z [----] followers, 65.6K engagements


"Looking at venture returns as IRR rather than MOIC is recognition that the cost of capital over time matters. Trying to reorient incentives for stronger IRR performance is a noble goal but begs the question: why don't GPs care about their own cost of capital If the timing of returns matter to LPs why doesn't the timing of carried interest matter to GPs The obvious answer is that carry is relatively unimportant in contrast to fees which creates all kinds of problems for venture capital. One major culprit here is the popularity of the European waterfall model where GPs don't receive any carry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1916838121821360307)  2025-04-28T12:53Z [----] followers, 30.3K engagements


"- There's a 0.52.5% chance that a venture backed company at seed will produce a unicorn outcome. According to @IlyaStrebulaev: 0.5% According to @AngelList: 2.5% According to: @CBinsights: 1.28% - Most VCs are willing to admit they really can't predict which of their investments will be a winner. "After the deployment period for 20VC Fund I I did an analysis of portfolio. I predicted the top [--]. Three years later not one of the top [--] is as predicted. The true value from seed is always the messy middle." (source: Harry Stebbings Founder of 20VC) - We can follow the common wisdom that you need"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1922734842263052582)  2025-05-14T19:24Z [----] followers, 114K engagements


"The quote below from @WillManidis is worth the consideration of every venture investor GP and LP. (It's also core to the mission of @equidam: making idiosyncratic ideas more legible for finance.) As a product of incentives capital in VC has gravity. It is inclined to collect in pools feeding consensus driving momentum and concentrating systematic risk*. This is bad for the quality of investments and distinctly bad for innovation perhaps the only place where those two concepts remain aligned. Will's 'merchant banking' concept (described at length in the episode below) is an interesting remedy."  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1943276691612221820)  2025-07-10T11:50Z [----] followers, 42.4K engagements


"VCs need to stop repeating this nonsense that regulation is discouraging companies from going public. Its a lie that was invented in the aftermath of [----] to excuse the lack of exits which was actually the consequence of: - A generation of companies with broken economics that were designed to print lazy markups on ARR. - Investors tripping over each other to dump their bags in [----] torching the market for tech IPOs. This argument is also contradicted by decades of research which I have covered across a number of recent posts. (tl;dr public companies have a lower cost of capital and invest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1960108364475548066)  2025-08-25T22:33Z [----] followers, 15.1K engagements


""The point of venture capital is to allow a founder to run an experiment against a hypothesis that is knowable testable where a true dramatically changes the EV of the company. If you look over history that's when it has performed best and that's really how it works. Using a little bit of money to do something that delivers a ton of value over a long period of time. There's real equity efficiency." (source: "Will Quist: Why 95% of Venture Capital is Not Really 'Venture Capital'") If you want to do "venture capital" in the pure and traditional sense you are aiming to fund capital-efficient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1982814919809482759)  2025-10-27T14:21Z [----] followers, 92.1K engagements


"Incumbent VCs and LPs who talk about VC in terms of "access" are optimising for a zero-sum finite game. The drop in activity is a direct result of this becoming the dominant strategy (in terms of dollar volume and prevalence in discourse). In the incumbent's view brand and network power attract the best deals in each cycle to the extent that they want the most obvious/legible opportunities. (The Keynesian beauty contest: how venture capital is about memeing your way to a low cost of capital rather than finding the best companies.) If you create artificial scarcity ("the best startups are in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1983556620152885680)  2025-10-29T15:28Z [----] followers, 75.2K engagements


"First-check VCs/angels find opportunities in a mostly unexplored pool of potential rather than the finite number of deals that make it downstream. There is some ceiling to the volume of capital that should be allocated to that part of the market but it's a long way off; the compounding value is immense. It's clearly also a strategic imperative for government LP initiatives where existing LPs have fallen into a risk-averse or zero-sum failure mode. The abundance business described by @adaugelli in "State of the Seed Market": New Blog Post It is the best time to be a seed investor. It will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/credistick/status/1983907429306831099)  2025-10-30T14:42Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements

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