[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/twitter/TimmerFidelity) "At times when the tea leaves are not as easy to read its always a good idea to step back and look at some charts and ask: whats to like or not to like Below is the S&P XXX. There doesn't appear to be much not to like here. The trend is up the index is above its trendline and has been making new highs and breadth is decent. Momentum often begets more momentum. At some point the index will be too far above its rising trendline with sentiment and momentum and breadth no longer confirming those highs but we dont seem to be there yet"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945160863586906483) 2025-07-15 16:37:43 UTC 202K followers, 13.6K engagements "Other than the Swiss Franc the dollar is the strongest currency in the world. The greenback as well as US bond yields have benefited the US being the cleanest dirty shirt in a world economy weighed down by a crushing debt load. The question is whether the US will continue to enjoy that privilege in an era of fiscal dominance. The surging price of gold and bitcoin seem to say no. Both gold and bitcoin are seeing this coming from a mile away it seems. If the Fed is at some point forced to execute another QE (quantitative easing) wave to monetize a second fiscal wave then the ensuing"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945857662308254111) 2025-07-17 14:46:33 UTC 202K followers, 14K engagements "In the US both share buybacks and capital spending have been improving in absolute terms and as a percentage of revenues. Those revenues have continued to trend higher for the S&P XXX. There appears to be nothing not to like The rub of course is that all this positive fundamental context is already priced in with the S&P XXX index now trading at XX times free cash flow. Thats back to the nose-bleed levels seen late last year. For the equal-weighted index the multiple is not quite as high (27x) but still near the highs of its historical range. The market is priced for success betting on"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945543950850302125) 2025-07-16 17:59:58 UTC 202K followers, 12K engagements "The Fed remains on hold which in my view is the right thing to do. If neutral is 3.5-4.0% (inflation + XXX bps) the Fed should only cut rates a few times before returning from restrictive to less restrictive to neutral. Anything more is not justified given that inflation remains above target and the jobless rate is below the full employment rate (formerly NAIRU). The Taylor rule says the Fed should be slightly above neutral which is where it is"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945544957239955621) 2025-07-16 18:03:58 UTC 202K followers, 16.7K engagements "Bitcoins adoption curve has continued to grow as evidenced by the ongoing influx of capital entering the scene via the various ETPs. Whether these flows are from true believers or momentum renters is hard to tell. The Bitcoin chart shows a clean stairstep process of new highs followed by consolidations followed by new highs. As such bitcoin has continued to follow both the Power Law curve of its wallets as well as my demand model based on the internet adoption curve from a few decades ago. We are right in the middle"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945560818411549080) 2025-07-16 19:07:00 UTC 202K followers, 62.6K engagements "Perhaps gold has been eyeing a new era of fiscal dominance since 2022 when it stopped trading on real rates and started trading on the dollars eroding hegemony. With the US dollar now comprising XX% of all reserve currencies and XX% of allocated reserves golds share of all reserve assets has more than doubled since 2015 from X% to 15%. The chart below shows that gold has been taking market share from fiat reserves including the Dollar and the Euro. In fact gold has now become the second largest reserve asset behind the Dollar and just ahead the Euro"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1943646238643028160) 2025-07-11 12:19:09 UTC 202K followers, 60.3K engagements "For international equities the trend is up and the MSCI ACWI ex-US index is making new highs both in dollar terms and local currency terms. Breadth seems solid as well with XX% of international stocks above their 200-day moving average. This is now a global bull market"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945160992205238618) 2025-07-15 16:38:14 UTC 202K followers, 16.8K engagements "Whether the fiscal impulse from the OBBB (not to mention tariffs) will cause another inflation wave is an important question not only for the Fed as it contemplates the timing of its next rate cut but for fixed income and equity valuations as well. Below we see that the TIPS 5y5y forward break-even has been stuck in a tight range of 2.0-2.5% since the COVID spike in 2020. Nothing to see here. Well well see. If inflation does wake up again it could be a problem for both the equity risk premium and term premium both of which are on the low side of their historical range"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945544314974576685) 2025-07-16 18:01:25 UTC 202K followers, 10.8K engagements "If the dollar does lose some of its supremacy premium while global earnings are converging on US earnings and non-US valuations are lower than in the US it should provide a good backdrop for a prolonged period of mean reversion between US and non-US equities. The two charts below show just how important the currency component can be for investing globally. Thats especially the case for emerging markets where the USD-based EM index (solid blue) has vastly outperformed the local currency index (dotted line) over the past XX years. In local currency terms the MSCI EM index is where the S&P 500"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1946214186771734787) 2025-07-18 14:23:15 UTC 202K followers, 13.2K engagements "If the Fed is forced back into the bond market to hold down nominal and real rates the dollar may well lose more of its supremacy premium. Currencies are the release valve for unsustainable fiscal policy as Japan found out a few years ago. The same is now true for the dollar which continues to lose strength despite the Feds hawkish policy stance"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945845887042998546) 2025-07-17 13:59:46 UTC 202K followers, 20.1K engagements "With the Big Beautiful Bill now law and expected to add $X trillion in debt the question is whether the US economys speed limit can be raised enough to avoid a debt spiral down the road. The simple math is that the economy needs to grow faster than its cost of borrowing. That has generally been the case over the years and when it wasnt the debt burden was too low to matter. But as the debt burden grows larger that differential between the 10-year yield and the long-term growth rate in GDP will become all-important. If the term premium rises to XXX bps (which seems reasonable to me especially"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1943386218630140196) 2025-07-10 19:05:55 UTC 202K followers, 25.4K engagements "Bitcoin has been benefiting from both a rising global money supply and a rally in risk assets. A win-win for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1943670769923330276) 2025-07-11 13:56:37 UTC 202K followers, 20.6K engagements "a premature policy easing runs the risk of being challenged by the bond vigilantes who can bear-steepen the curve and hit the economy where it really hurts"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1943386044461629700) 2025-07-10 19:05:14 UTC 202K followers, 13K engagements "With both liquidity as well as the stock market rallying its no surprise that Bitcoin is making new highs and taking the baton from gold for a while. You can see that clearly from the diverging Sharpe Ratios below"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945174936554770943) 2025-07-15 17:33:39 UTC 202K followers, 15.7K engagements "The one devils advocate challenge to the otherwise unmistakably bullish narrative driving gold and Bitcoin is the question of how much of this fiscal dominance and de-dollarization playbook is already priced in. The combined value of above-ground gold and Bitcoin is now around $XX trillion which is higher than the US money supply and at levels that have previously marked tops. Like the valuation chart for equities if the thesis is priced in the trade may not be the slam dunk that it seems. In my view we are not even close to that point in part because the global money supply is five times"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1946210438783398092) 2025-07-18 14:08:22 UTC 202K followers, 20.4K engagements "With the debt ceiling now passed the debt is rising again and the jaws between what the Treasury is selling and what the Fed is buying continue to widen. This will only last for so long in my view. We are now in round two of fiscal dominance with the first $X trillion helicopter drop taking place during COVID and now the second one about to get underway from the OBBB. The math is simple but difficult: as long as nominal GDP growth outpaces the funding rate (10-year Treasury yield) the debt can be considered sustainable. Hopefully that happens as a capex cycle from both the OBBB and the AI"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945842189189472301) 2025-07-17 13:45:04 UTC 202K followers, 20.2K engagements "Q2 earnings season starts this week and based on the estimate markdowns in April and May followed by improving financial conditions and a weaker dollar my hunch is that earnings will surprise to the upside. The last few quarters produced a bounce of at least XXX bps so well see if that pattern repeats"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945174748448575488) 2025-07-15 17:32:54 UTC 202K followers, 12.9K engagements "Bonds continue to churn in a narrow range and I am pleasantly surprised that yields havent already moved above 4.5%. Nothing good happens above 4.5%. The term premium has reverted from its -XXX bps financial repression extreme in 2020 to a much more reasonable +83 bps. Whether it keeps rising will likely depend not only on inflation but also the debt composition of the OBBB. We will find out more soon when the quarterly refunding announcement is released"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945552010792612328) 2025-07-16 18:32:00 UTC 202K followers, 15K engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@TimmerFidelity
"At times when the tea leaves are not as easy to read its always a good idea to step back and look at some charts and ask: whats to like or not to like Below is the S&P XXX. There doesn't appear to be much not to like here. The trend is up the index is above its trendline and has been making new highs and breadth is decent. Momentum often begets more momentum. At some point the index will be too far above its rising trendline with sentiment and momentum and breadth no longer confirming those highs but we dont seem to be there yet"
@TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-15 16:37:43 UTC 202K followers, 13.6K engagements
"Other than the Swiss Franc the dollar is the strongest currency in the world. The greenback as well as US bond yields have benefited the US being the cleanest dirty shirt in a world economy weighed down by a crushing debt load. The question is whether the US will continue to enjoy that privilege in an era of fiscal dominance. The surging price of gold and bitcoin seem to say no. Both gold and bitcoin are seeing this coming from a mile away it seems. If the Fed is at some point forced to execute another QE (quantitative easing) wave to monetize a second fiscal wave then the ensuing" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-17 14:46:33 UTC 202K followers, 14K engagements
"In the US both share buybacks and capital spending have been improving in absolute terms and as a percentage of revenues. Those revenues have continued to trend higher for the S&P XXX. There appears to be nothing not to like The rub of course is that all this positive fundamental context is already priced in with the S&P XXX index now trading at XX times free cash flow. Thats back to the nose-bleed levels seen late last year. For the equal-weighted index the multiple is not quite as high (27x) but still near the highs of its historical range. The market is priced for success betting on" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-16 17:59:58 UTC 202K followers, 12K engagements
"The Fed remains on hold which in my view is the right thing to do. If neutral is 3.5-4.0% (inflation + XXX bps) the Fed should only cut rates a few times before returning from restrictive to less restrictive to neutral. Anything more is not justified given that inflation remains above target and the jobless rate is below the full employment rate (formerly NAIRU). The Taylor rule says the Fed should be slightly above neutral which is where it is" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-16 18:03:58 UTC 202K followers, 16.7K engagements
"Bitcoins adoption curve has continued to grow as evidenced by the ongoing influx of capital entering the scene via the various ETPs. Whether these flows are from true believers or momentum renters is hard to tell. The Bitcoin chart shows a clean stairstep process of new highs followed by consolidations followed by new highs. As such bitcoin has continued to follow both the Power Law curve of its wallets as well as my demand model based on the internet adoption curve from a few decades ago. We are right in the middle" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-16 19:07:00 UTC 202K followers, 62.6K engagements
"Perhaps gold has been eyeing a new era of fiscal dominance since 2022 when it stopped trading on real rates and started trading on the dollars eroding hegemony. With the US dollar now comprising XX% of all reserve currencies and XX% of allocated reserves golds share of all reserve assets has more than doubled since 2015 from X% to 15%. The chart below shows that gold has been taking market share from fiat reserves including the Dollar and the Euro. In fact gold has now become the second largest reserve asset behind the Dollar and just ahead the Euro" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-11 12:19:09 UTC 202K followers, 60.3K engagements
"For international equities the trend is up and the MSCI ACWI ex-US index is making new highs both in dollar terms and local currency terms. Breadth seems solid as well with XX% of international stocks above their 200-day moving average. This is now a global bull market" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-15 16:38:14 UTC 202K followers, 16.8K engagements
"Whether the fiscal impulse from the OBBB (not to mention tariffs) will cause another inflation wave is an important question not only for the Fed as it contemplates the timing of its next rate cut but for fixed income and equity valuations as well. Below we see that the TIPS 5y5y forward break-even has been stuck in a tight range of 2.0-2.5% since the COVID spike in 2020. Nothing to see here. Well well see. If inflation does wake up again it could be a problem for both the equity risk premium and term premium both of which are on the low side of their historical range" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-16 18:01:25 UTC 202K followers, 10.8K engagements
"If the dollar does lose some of its supremacy premium while global earnings are converging on US earnings and non-US valuations are lower than in the US it should provide a good backdrop for a prolonged period of mean reversion between US and non-US equities. The two charts below show just how important the currency component can be for investing globally. Thats especially the case for emerging markets where the USD-based EM index (solid blue) has vastly outperformed the local currency index (dotted line) over the past XX years. In local currency terms the MSCI EM index is where the S&P 500" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-18 14:23:15 UTC 202K followers, 13.2K engagements
"If the Fed is forced back into the bond market to hold down nominal and real rates the dollar may well lose more of its supremacy premium. Currencies are the release valve for unsustainable fiscal policy as Japan found out a few years ago. The same is now true for the dollar which continues to lose strength despite the Feds hawkish policy stance" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-17 13:59:46 UTC 202K followers, 20.1K engagements
"With the Big Beautiful Bill now law and expected to add $X trillion in debt the question is whether the US economys speed limit can be raised enough to avoid a debt spiral down the road. The simple math is that the economy needs to grow faster than its cost of borrowing. That has generally been the case over the years and when it wasnt the debt burden was too low to matter. But as the debt burden grows larger that differential between the 10-year yield and the long-term growth rate in GDP will become all-important. If the term premium rises to XXX bps (which seems reasonable to me especially" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-10 19:05:55 UTC 202K followers, 25.4K engagements
"Bitcoin has been benefiting from both a rising global money supply and a rally in risk assets. A win-win for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-11 13:56:37 UTC 202K followers, 20.6K engagements
"a premature policy easing runs the risk of being challenged by the bond vigilantes who can bear-steepen the curve and hit the economy where it really hurts" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-10 19:05:14 UTC 202K followers, 13K engagements
"With both liquidity as well as the stock market rallying its no surprise that Bitcoin is making new highs and taking the baton from gold for a while. You can see that clearly from the diverging Sharpe Ratios below" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-15 17:33:39 UTC 202K followers, 15.7K engagements
"The one devils advocate challenge to the otherwise unmistakably bullish narrative driving gold and Bitcoin is the question of how much of this fiscal dominance and de-dollarization playbook is already priced in. The combined value of above-ground gold and Bitcoin is now around $XX trillion which is higher than the US money supply and at levels that have previously marked tops. Like the valuation chart for equities if the thesis is priced in the trade may not be the slam dunk that it seems. In my view we are not even close to that point in part because the global money supply is five times" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-18 14:08:22 UTC 202K followers, 20.4K engagements
"With the debt ceiling now passed the debt is rising again and the jaws between what the Treasury is selling and what the Fed is buying continue to widen. This will only last for so long in my view. We are now in round two of fiscal dominance with the first $X trillion helicopter drop taking place during COVID and now the second one about to get underway from the OBBB. The math is simple but difficult: as long as nominal GDP growth outpaces the funding rate (10-year Treasury yield) the debt can be considered sustainable. Hopefully that happens as a capex cycle from both the OBBB and the AI" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-17 13:45:04 UTC 202K followers, 20.2K engagements
"Q2 earnings season starts this week and based on the estimate markdowns in April and May followed by improving financial conditions and a weaker dollar my hunch is that earnings will surprise to the upside. The last few quarters produced a bounce of at least XXX bps so well see if that pattern repeats" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-15 17:32:54 UTC 202K followers, 12.9K engagements
"Bonds continue to churn in a narrow range and I am pleasantly surprised that yields havent already moved above 4.5%. Nothing good happens above 4.5%. The term premium has reverted from its -XXX bps financial repression extreme in 2020 to a much more reasonable +83 bps. Whether it keeps rising will likely depend not only on inflation but also the debt composition of the OBBB. We will find out more soon when the quarterly refunding announcement is released" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-16 18:32:00 UTC 202K followers, 15K engagements