[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @TimmerFidelity Jurrien Timmer Jurrien Timmer, a market analyst, has been sharing his insights on the current market trends. He is drawing parallels between the current market and the late 1990s, citing similarities in the post-rate hike rally and the performance of various assets. Timmer is also discussing the potential risks and opportunities in the market, including the concentration risk posed by the "Mag 7" stocks and the role of gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets. ### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2918307101/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXXX -XX% - X Months XXXXXXXXX -XXXX% - X Year XXXXXXXXXX -XX% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::2918307101/posts_active)  - X Month XX -XX% - X Months XXX -XX% - X Year XXX -XX% ### Followers: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2918307101/followers)  - X Week XXXXXXX +0.09% - X Month XXXXXXX +0.53% - X Months XXXXXXX +3.20% - X Year XXXXXXX +8.30% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2918307101/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) XX% [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) XXXX% [exchanges](/list/exchanges) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [longterm](/topic/longterm) #403, [stocks](/topic/stocks) 12.5%, [cash flow](/topic/cash-flow) #223, [flow](/topic/flow) 8.33%, [sentiment](/topic/sentiment) #304, [solve](/topic/solve) #1704, [ai](/topic/ai) 8.33%, [bubble](/topic/bubble) #349, [mag](/topic/mag) 4.17%, [guess](/topic/guess) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@jjperaltaa](/creator/undefined) [@crescatkevin](/creator/undefined) [@mauiboymacro](/creator/undefined) [@simon_reseke](/creator/undefined) [@car25176](/creator/undefined) [@observationdesk](/creator/undefined) [@citizenwatchrep](/creator/undefined) [@joeokeefejr](/creator/undefined) [@notmynamethis](/creator/undefined) [@ritholtz](/creator/undefined) [@stockstormx](/creator/undefined) [@paulomacro](/creator/undefined) [@point7five](/creator/undefined) [@arina_kovalova](/creator/undefined) [@cryptobombast1c](/creator/undefined) [@derivativeprofr](/creator/undefined) [@manuel66972261](/creator/undefined) [@hotchknsandopls](/creator/undefined) [@tradewithmojo](/creator/undefined) [@ttejpal](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "The discounted cash flow model is an elegant but frustrating valuation tool. Elegant because it incorporates every variable you can think of (earnings growth payout ratio sentiment interest rates) but frustrating because its impossible to solve for an outcome with so many variables. For me the way around the latter is to assume that earnings growth 6-7% over time. The DCF is a long-term model for a long duration asset so thats not an unreasonable assumption in my view. From there we can plug in the payout ratio and the risk-free rate to solve for whats called the requited return. From there" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1996642991574745360) 2025-12-04T18:09Z 207.3K followers, 15K engagements "Using Bloomberg EPS estimates we can see that many of the extreme valuation readings from weeks ago have come in a bit better now (although still high). For instance meme stocks have lost some XX P/E points while the big players (Mag 7) trade at 32.6x and the S&P XXX at 20.7x. For the large caps these are not bubble valuations. In fact NVDA as the poster child of the AI boom now sports a forward P/E of only 26x which is very far from where CSCO traded in 1999 or 2000" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1993432004197790009) 2025-11-25T21:30Z 207.3K followers, 18.1K engagements "Whether the drawdown ends at X% or goes to 10-15% or more is anyones guess of course but its worth remembering that drawdowns are par for the course especially when investors are attempting to put a multiple on a hard-to-quantify AI narrative. Case in point the 1998-2000 analog shows that while the NASDAQ went parabolic in 1999 the S&P XXX made only modest gains in that final year (if you can call XX% gains modest) and did so in very choppy fashion riddled with multiple XX% corrections. Something to keep in mind as the market grapples with the AI narrative today" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1993726444015661208) 2025-11-26T17:00Z 207.3K followers, 36.3K engagements "In case you are wondering where non-US equities stack up on this grid wonder no more. Based on current consensus earnings estimates the MSCI EAFE index is priced for XXX% earnings growth and a XXX% required return. Using the ex-US sovereign risk-free rate that leaves a generous iERP of 6%. If we use the US risk-free rate the IERP is 5.3%. For EM equities the earnings projection is XXXX% and the required return is 11.0%. Using an EM risk-free rate of XXX% that leaves an iERP of XXX% and using the US risk-free rate we have an iERP of 7.0%. Putting them all together and placing the three regions" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1996643464453169383) 2025-12-04T18:11Z 207.3K followers, 15.4K engagements "The bubble watch hasnt ended of course but my conclusion remains that we are far from bubble-like extremes measured as either time price or valuation" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1996966481578344847) 2025-12-05T15:34Z 207.3K followers, 61.7K engagements "A bubble cant be a bubble without a valuation extreme and so far we dont have one (at least not for the major averages or the Mag 7). We can argue about the quality of earnings given the circularity of vendor financing and the use of depreciation timelines but to my eye at least this is a cycle in which valuations are no longer the driving force" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1996966542743838892) 2025-12-05T15:35Z 207.3K followers, 46.2K engagements "The discounted cash flow model is an elegant but frustrating valuation tool. Elegant because it incorporates every variable you can think of (earnings growth payout ratio sentiment interest rates) but frustrating because its impossible to solve for an outcome with so many variables. For me the way around the latter is to assume that earnings growth 6-7% over time. The DCF is a long-term model for a long duration asset so thats not an unreasonable assumption in my view. From there we can plug in the payout ratio and the risk-free rate to solve for whats called the requited return. From there" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1996987936760267212) 2025-12-05T17:00Z 207.3K followers, 13.5K engagements "If we rank the iERP by percentile we can see that we are way at the tail end of historical valuations. In fact when the iERP was XXX% or less (going back to 1900) the forward 5-year CAGR has always been less than the markets long-term CAGR of 10%. Furthermore half the time it didnt even exceed the X% inflation rate. Thats not to say the market will be down over the next X years just that it may well be below average" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1997003037127463019) 2025-12-05T18:00Z 207.3K followers, 8697 engagements "As it currently stands earnings are expected to grow XX% this year which would be a similar to 2024. The expectations for 2026 and 2027 are for XX% growth each. If those pan out the market is on good footing with an equity risk premium in the mid-4s and a P/E ratio in the low 20s. But if earnings mean-revert to their long term average of 6-7% the market is over its skis. 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1998507089409290708) 2025-12-09T21:36Z 207.3K followers, 10.1K engagements "The air has suddenly been taken out of the speculative highfliers such as the meme stocks bitcoin sensitive stocks SPACS recent IPOs non-profitable tech etc. I would argue this is probably a good thing" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1993426044171518221) 2025-11-25T21:06Z 207.3K followers, 42.6K engagements "Market breadth has improved quite a bit in the past week or so with the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average improving from XX% at the low to now 60%. Not a breadth thrust but surely a nice swing" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1996966348757361022) 2025-12-05T15:34Z 207.3K followers, 14.6K engagements "Markets got a strong assist from rising expectations for another rate cut from the Fed in a few weeks. Odds of a December cut are now up to 83%. With truflation steady at a XXX% year-over-year rate the Fed can afford to lean a little deeper into the 3-zone to help offset the risk of the jobs market stall. The long end of the bond market seems to agree with the 10-year holding steady at a XXXX% yield" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1996966674138865862) 2025-12-05T15:35Z 207.3K followers, 9918 engagements "In case you are wondering where non-US equities stack up on this grid wonder no more. Based on current consensus earnings estimates the MSCI EAFE index is priced for XXX% earnings growth and a XXX% required return. Using the ex-US sovereign risk-free rate that leaves a generous iERP of 6%. If we use the US risk-free rate the IERP is 5.3%. For EM equities the earnings projection is XXXX% and the required return is 11.0%. Using an EM risk-free rate of XXX% that leaves an iERP of XXX% and using the US risk-free rate we have an iERP of 7.0%. Putting them all together and placing the three regions" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1997033237017690254) 2025-12-05T20:00Z 207.3K followers, 12.6K engagements "The cyclical bull market is now XX months old and has a produced a total return of XXX% for the cap-weighted S&P XXX and XX% for the equal-weighted index. As of last week both indices made a new all-time high which is good to see. The first few years of the bull market that started in October 2022 were amplified by P/E multiple expansion. But in 2025 earnings growth has accelerated and has been driving the bull market bus" [X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1998507875904454656) 2025-12-09T21:39Z 207.3K followers, 10.8K engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@TimmerFidelity Jurrien Timmer
Jurrien Timmer, a market analyst, has been sharing his insights on the current market trends. He is drawing parallels between the current market and the late 1990s, citing similarities in the post-rate hike rally and the performance of various assets. Timmer is also discussing the potential risks and opportunities in the market, including the concentration risk posed by the "Mag 7" stocks and the role of gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets.
Engagements: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX -XXXX%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX -XX%
Mentions: XX #
- X Month XX -XX%
- X Months XXX -XX%
- X Year XXX -XX%
Followers: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +0.09%
- X Month XXXXXXX +0.53%
- X Months XXXXXXX +3.20%
- X Year XXXXXXX +8.30%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance XX% stocks XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% exchanges XXXX%
Social topic influence longterm #403, stocks 12.5%, cash flow #223, flow 8.33%, sentiment #304, solve #1704, ai 8.33%, bubble #349, mag 4.17%, guess XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jjperaltaa @crescatkevin @mauiboymacro @simon_reseke @car25176 @observationdesk @citizenwatchrep @joeokeefejr @notmynamethis @ritholtz @stockstormx @paulomacro @point7five @arina_kovalova @cryptobombast1c @derivativeprofr @manuel66972261 @hotchknsandopls @tradewithmojo @ttejpal
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"The discounted cash flow model is an elegant but frustrating valuation tool. Elegant because it incorporates every variable you can think of (earnings growth payout ratio sentiment interest rates) but frustrating because its impossible to solve for an outcome with so many variables. For me the way around the latter is to assume that earnings growth 6-7% over time. The DCF is a long-term model for a long duration asset so thats not an unreasonable assumption in my view. From there we can plug in the payout ratio and the risk-free rate to solve for whats called the requited return. From there"
X Link 2025-12-04T18:09Z 207.3K followers, 15K engagements
"Using Bloomberg EPS estimates we can see that many of the extreme valuation readings from weeks ago have come in a bit better now (although still high). For instance meme stocks have lost some XX P/E points while the big players (Mag 7) trade at 32.6x and the S&P XXX at 20.7x. For the large caps these are not bubble valuations. In fact NVDA as the poster child of the AI boom now sports a forward P/E of only 26x which is very far from where CSCO traded in 1999 or 2000"
X Link 2025-11-25T21:30Z 207.3K followers, 18.1K engagements
"Whether the drawdown ends at X% or goes to 10-15% or more is anyones guess of course but its worth remembering that drawdowns are par for the course especially when investors are attempting to put a multiple on a hard-to-quantify AI narrative. Case in point the 1998-2000 analog shows that while the NASDAQ went parabolic in 1999 the S&P XXX made only modest gains in that final year (if you can call XX% gains modest) and did so in very choppy fashion riddled with multiple XX% corrections. Something to keep in mind as the market grapples with the AI narrative today"
X Link 2025-11-26T17:00Z 207.3K followers, 36.3K engagements
"In case you are wondering where non-US equities stack up on this grid wonder no more. Based on current consensus earnings estimates the MSCI EAFE index is priced for XXX% earnings growth and a XXX% required return. Using the ex-US sovereign risk-free rate that leaves a generous iERP of 6%. If we use the US risk-free rate the IERP is 5.3%. For EM equities the earnings projection is XXXX% and the required return is 11.0%. Using an EM risk-free rate of XXX% that leaves an iERP of XXX% and using the US risk-free rate we have an iERP of 7.0%. Putting them all together and placing the three regions"
X Link 2025-12-04T18:11Z 207.3K followers, 15.4K engagements
"The bubble watch hasnt ended of course but my conclusion remains that we are far from bubble-like extremes measured as either time price or valuation"
X Link 2025-12-05T15:34Z 207.3K followers, 61.7K engagements
"A bubble cant be a bubble without a valuation extreme and so far we dont have one (at least not for the major averages or the Mag 7). We can argue about the quality of earnings given the circularity of vendor financing and the use of depreciation timelines but to my eye at least this is a cycle in which valuations are no longer the driving force"
X Link 2025-12-05T15:35Z 207.3K followers, 46.2K engagements
"The discounted cash flow model is an elegant but frustrating valuation tool. Elegant because it incorporates every variable you can think of (earnings growth payout ratio sentiment interest rates) but frustrating because its impossible to solve for an outcome with so many variables. For me the way around the latter is to assume that earnings growth 6-7% over time. The DCF is a long-term model for a long duration asset so thats not an unreasonable assumption in my view. From there we can plug in the payout ratio and the risk-free rate to solve for whats called the requited return. From there"
X Link 2025-12-05T17:00Z 207.3K followers, 13.5K engagements
"If we rank the iERP by percentile we can see that we are way at the tail end of historical valuations. In fact when the iERP was XXX% or less (going back to 1900) the forward 5-year CAGR has always been less than the markets long-term CAGR of 10%. Furthermore half the time it didnt even exceed the X% inflation rate. Thats not to say the market will be down over the next X years just that it may well be below average"
X Link 2025-12-05T18:00Z 207.3K followers, 8697 engagements
"As it currently stands earnings are expected to grow XX% this year which would be a similar to 2024. The expectations for 2026 and 2027 are for XX% growth each. If those pan out the market is on good footing with an equity risk premium in the mid-4s and a P/E ratio in the low 20s. But if earnings mean-revert to their long term average of 6-7% the market is over its skis. 🧵"
X Link 2025-12-09T21:36Z 207.3K followers, 10.1K engagements
"The air has suddenly been taken out of the speculative highfliers such as the meme stocks bitcoin sensitive stocks SPACS recent IPOs non-profitable tech etc. I would argue this is probably a good thing"
X Link 2025-11-25T21:06Z 207.3K followers, 42.6K engagements
"Market breadth has improved quite a bit in the past week or so with the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average improving from XX% at the low to now 60%. Not a breadth thrust but surely a nice swing"
X Link 2025-12-05T15:34Z 207.3K followers, 14.6K engagements
"Markets got a strong assist from rising expectations for another rate cut from the Fed in a few weeks. Odds of a December cut are now up to 83%. With truflation steady at a XXX% year-over-year rate the Fed can afford to lean a little deeper into the 3-zone to help offset the risk of the jobs market stall. The long end of the bond market seems to agree with the 10-year holding steady at a XXXX% yield"
X Link 2025-12-05T15:35Z 207.3K followers, 9918 engagements
"In case you are wondering where non-US equities stack up on this grid wonder no more. Based on current consensus earnings estimates the MSCI EAFE index is priced for XXX% earnings growth and a XXX% required return. Using the ex-US sovereign risk-free rate that leaves a generous iERP of 6%. If we use the US risk-free rate the IERP is 5.3%. For EM equities the earnings projection is XXXX% and the required return is 11.0%. Using an EM risk-free rate of XXX% that leaves an iERP of XXX% and using the US risk-free rate we have an iERP of 7.0%. Putting them all together and placing the three regions"
X Link 2025-12-05T20:00Z 207.3K followers, 12.6K engagements
"The cyclical bull market is now XX months old and has a produced a total return of XXX% for the cap-weighted S&P XXX and XX% for the equal-weighted index. As of last week both indices made a new all-time high which is good to see. The first few years of the bull market that started in October 2022 were amplified by P/E multiple expansion. But in 2025 earnings growth has accelerated and has been driving the bull market bus"
X Link 2025-12-09T21:39Z 207.3K followers, 10.8K engagements