[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @TimmerFidelity Jurrien Timmer Jurrien Timmer posts on X about bitcoin, inflation, fed, debt the most. They currently have XXXXXXX followers and 1590 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2918307101/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX +250% - X Month XXXXXXX +14% - X Months XXXXXXXXX +47% - X Year XXXXXXXXX -XX% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::2918307101/posts_active)  - X Month XX -XX% - X Months XXX +23% - X Year XXX -XX% ### Followers: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2918307101/followers)  - X Week XXXXXXX +0.17% - X Month XXXXXXX +0.50% - X Months XXXXXXX +4.90% - X Year XXXXXXX +7.50% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2918307101/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::2918307101/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #2819 [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) #995 [stocks](/list/stocks) [currencies](/list/currencies) #1081 [countries](/list/countries) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #318, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #257, [fed](/topic/fed) #131, [debt](/topic/debt) #82, [money](/topic/money) #1509, [currencies](/topic/currencies) #9, [dominance](/topic/dominance) #42, [stocks](/topic/stocks), [currency](/topic/currency) #73, [bbb](/topic/bbb) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::2918307101/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "Knowing how much to pay for each dollar of earnings is as much art as science. Thinking of the do you want to own this question from before does the answer change when we add valuation to the mix Do you want to own the chart below knowing that you are paying almost XX times expected earnings Its not a layup"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1942935444439670940) 2025-07-09 13:14:42 UTC 201.9K followers, 17.9K engagements "Bonds continue to churn in a narrow range and I am pleasantly surprised that yields havent already moved above 4.5%. Nothing good happens above 4.5%. The term premium has reverted from its -XXX bps financial repression extreme in 2020 to a much more reasonable +83 bps. Whether it keeps rising will likely depend not only on inflation but also the debt composition of the OBBB. We will find out more soon when the quarterly refunding announcement is released"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945552010792612328) 2025-07-16 18:32:00 UTC 201.9K followers, 14.3K engagements "The fastest recovery ever continued last week with the S&P XXX index gaining another 2%. The $X trillion Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was passed and it looks like the markets have re-priced in the animal spirits that were part of the red wave playbook last November before they were un-priced in March. And so the pendulum swings back and forth. With the end of the 90-day tariff reprieve looming as well as the quarterly refunding statement and second quarter earnings season we will soon find out what comes next. Renewed tariff pressure could push earnings estimates down while the BBB could lift"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1942337953088381060) 2025-07-07 21:40:29 UTC 201.9K followers, 35.6K engagements "The loss of earnings momentum that was priced in a few months ago as the Tariff Tantrum was raging will now be put to the test as Q2 earnings seasons gets going in another week while the 90-day cooling off period comes to an end. Based on the historical pattern 2nd quarter earnings growth could potentially improve 300-500 bps from the current XXX% which would bring us to the average long-term growth rate of 7%. Barring another tariff tantrum there are reasons to expect earnings growth to improve from here. For one the dollar index is down X% year-over-year which could help earnings growth"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1942598874113155515) 2025-07-08 14:57:17 UTC 201.9K followers, 10.4K engagements "With the jobless rate ticking down to XXX% in June while inflation expectations hold steady there hasnt been much progress from the Taylor Rule. If the neutral rate is around XXX bps (real) and inflation remains sticky at 2.5-3.0% then a few rate cuts are all we might get. While some softening is evident in the US economy US GDP has continued to grow faster than its potential. Between a negative output gap and above-target inflation there doesn't seem to be any reason for monetary policy to be below the neutral rate"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1942935973706244366) 2025-07-09 13:16:48 UTC 201.9K followers, 10.7K engagements "Bitcoin has been benefiting from both a rising global money supply and a rally in risk assets. A win-win for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1943670769923330276) 2025-07-11 13:56:37 UTC 201.9K followers, 20.5K engagements "There is some room for earnings to pick up steam here if the tariff tantrum is really behind us and the BBB unleashes a fiscal boom. Credit spreads seem agree with the above with both investment grade and high yield spreads back near the February tights. A potential divergence is looming between spreads and equities so that bears watching"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1940405165862932920) 2025-07-02 13:40:17 UTC 201.8K followers, 11.9K engagements "At times when the tea leaves are not as easy to read its always a good idea to step back and look at some charts and ask: whats to like or not to like Below is the S&P XXX. There doesn't appear to be much not to like here. The trend is up the index is above its trendline and has been making new highs and breadth is decent. Momentum often begets more momentum. At some point the index will be too far above its rising trendline with sentiment and momentum and breadth no longer confirming those highs but we dont seem to be there yet"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945160863586906483) 2025-07-15 16:37:43 UTC 201.9K followers, 13.5K engagements "If the Fed is forced back into the bond market to hold down nominal and real rates the dollar may well lose more of its supremacy premium. Currencies are the release valve for unsustainable fiscal policy as Japan found out a few years ago. The same is now true for the dollar which continues to lose strength despite the Feds hawkish policy stance"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945845887042998546) 2025-07-17 13:59:46 UTC 201.9K followers, 16K engagements "Perhaps gold has been eyeing a new era of fiscal dominance since 2022 when it stopped trading on real rates and started trading on the dollars eroding hegemony. With the US dollar now comprising XX% of all reserve currencies and XX% of allocated reserves golds share of all reserve assets has more than doubled since 2015 from X% to 15%. The chart below shows that gold has been taking market share from fiat reserves including the Dollar and the Euro. In fact gold has now become the second largest reserve asset behind the Dollar and just ahead the Euro"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1943646238643028160) 2025-07-11 12:19:09 UTC 201.9K followers, 60K engagements "With the Big Beautiful Bill now law and expected to add $X trillion in debt the question is whether the US economys speed limit can be raised enough to avoid a debt spiral down the road. The simple math is that the economy needs to grow faster than its cost of borrowing. That has generally been the case over the years and when it wasnt the debt burden was too low to matter. But as the debt burden grows larger that differential between the 10-year yield and the long-term growth rate in GDP will become all-important. If the term premium rises to XXX bps (which seems reasonable to me especially"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1943386218630140196) 2025-07-10 19:05:55 UTC 201.9K followers, 25.3K engagements "In the US both share buybacks and capital spending have been improving in absolute terms and as a percentage of revenues. Those revenues have continued to trend higher for the S&P XXX. There appears to be nothing not to like The rub of course is that all this positive fundamental context is already priced in with the S&P XXX index now trading at XX times free cash flow. Thats back to the nose-bleed levels seen late last year. For the equal-weighted index the multiple is not quite as high (27x) but still near the highs of its historical range. The market is priced for success betting on"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945543950850302125) 2025-07-16 17:59:58 UTC 201.9K followers, 11.6K engagements "The dollars weakness has been palpable as of late with the DXY continuing to make new lows"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1940757812600258937) 2025-07-03 13:01:34 UTC 201.9K followers, 11.1K engagements "With the S&P XXX index making all-time highs once again the trendline is clearly up and the index is now well above it. This shows momentum which usually begets more momentum. The only thing not to like in the chart below is the tepid breadth with only XX% of stocks above their 200-day moving average"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1942598946020356286) 2025-07-08 14:57:35 UTC 201.9K followers, 17.1K engagements "One of the big questions remains whether a new world order is emerging in which the US dollar loses at least some of its supremacy and is supplanted by a mixture of other fiat currencies and hard money (gold and perhaps Bitcoin). Maybe this regime change was signaled three years ago when gold stopped trading in lockstep with real rates. The latest iteration of this potential secular change is the US dollars inability to rally during times of stress or when interest rate differentials support it. If the dollar is in a sustained downtrend it could provide a major tailwind for non-US equities"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1940757960159879624) 2025-07-03 13:02:09 UTC 201.9K followers, 20.4K engagements "With both liquidity improving per the global money supply and the stock market reaching new highs its no surprise that Bitcoin is on the move again. Both Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde are being supported for now and Bitcoin should be at new all-time highs soon enough if this momentum continues. Bitcoin continues to be straddled by my demand model and the power curve of its wallets. Up and to the right"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1940798185993023496) 2025-07-03 15:42:00 UTC 201.9K followers, 31.9K engagements "Other than the Swiss Franc the dollar is the strongest currency in the world. The greenback as well as US bond yields have benefited the US being the cleanest dirty shirt in a world economy weighed down by a crushing debt load. The question is whether the US will continue to enjoy that privilege in an era of fiscal dominance. The surging price of gold and bitcoin seem to say no. Both gold and bitcoin are seeing this coming from a mile away it seems. If the Fed is at some point forced to execute another QE (quantitative easing) wave to monetize a second fiscal wave then the ensuing"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945857662308254111) 2025-07-17 14:46:33 UTC 201.9K followers, 11.5K engagements "The Fed remains on hold which in my view is the right thing to do. If neutral is 3.5-4.0% (inflation + XXX bps) the Fed should only cut rates a few times before returning from restrictive to less restrictive to neutral. Anything more is not justified given that inflation remains above target and the jobless rate is below the full employment rate (formerly NAIRU). The Taylor rule says the Fed should be slightly above neutral which is where it is"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945544957239955621) 2025-07-16 18:03:58 UTC 201.9K followers, 16.3K engagements "Global equities are participating in the risk rally with the MSCI ACWI ex-US index making new highs in both USD and local currency terms. Relative momentum curves continue to converge indicating a chance in leadership. The MSCI EAFE index is also making new highs (in both USD and local currency) and two-thirds of the stocks in that index are participating. Looks good. Even emerging market equities are having a moment at least ex-China"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1940405469907992858) 2025-07-02 13:41:29 UTC 201.9K followers, 11.7K engagements "While political pressure continues on the Fed monetary policy remains on hold which in my view is the correct approach. While there is room to cut rates (3 times according to my math) there is really no hurry to do so. Monetary policy is not that restrictive the US economy is less rate senstitve than it has been and while the inflation rate continues to edge closer to the Feds target it has been quite stubborn. The Fed is leaning into fiscal expansion as it should"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1942935530875826337) 2025-07-09 13:15:03 UTC 201.9K followers, 11.3K engagements "For international equities the trend is up and the MSCI ACWI ex-US index is making new highs both in dollar terms and local currency terms. Breadth seems solid as well with XX% of international stocks above their 200-day moving average. This is now a global bull market"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945160992205238618) 2025-07-15 16:38:14 UTC 201.9K followers, 16.5K engagements "a premature policy easing runs the risk of being challenged by the bond vigilantes who can bear-steepen the curve and hit the economy where it really hurts"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1943386044461629700) 2025-07-10 19:05:14 UTC 201.9K followers, 12.9K engagements "With the debt ceiling now passed the debt is rising again and the jaws between what the Treasury is selling and what the Fed is buying continue to widen. This will only last for so long in my view. We are now in round two of fiscal dominance with the first $X trillion helicopter drop taking place during COVID and now the second one about to get underway from the OBBB. The math is simple but difficult: as long as nominal GDP growth outpaces the funding rate (10-year Treasury yield) the debt can be considered sustainable. Hopefully that happens as a capex cycle from both the OBBB and the AI"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945842189189472301) 2025-07-17 13:45:04 UTC 201.9K followers, 16.7K engagements "Whether the fiscal impulse from the OBBB (not to mention tariffs) will cause another inflation wave is an important question not only for the Fed as it contemplates the timing of its next rate cut but for fixed income and equity valuations as well. Below we see that the TIPS 5y5y forward break-even has been stuck in a tight range of 2.0-2.5% since the COVID spike in 2020. Nothing to see here. Well well see. If inflation does wake up again it could be a problem for both the equity risk premium and term premium both of which are on the low side of their historical range"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945544314974576685) 2025-07-16 18:01:25 UTC 201.9K followers, 10.5K engagements "Q2 earnings season starts this week and based on the estimate markdowns in April and May followed by improving financial conditions and a weaker dollar my hunch is that earnings will surprise to the upside. The last few quarters produced a bounce of at least XXX bps so well see if that pattern repeats"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945174748448575488) 2025-07-15 17:32:54 UTC 201.9K followers, 12.7K engagements "Bitcoins adoption curve has continued to grow as evidenced by the ongoing influx of capital entering the scene via the various ETPs. Whether these flows are from true believers or momentum renters is hard to tell. The Bitcoin chart shows a clean stairstep process of new highs followed by consolidations followed by new highs. As such bitcoin has continued to follow both the Power Law curve of its wallets as well as my demand model based on the internet adoption curve from a few decades ago. We are right in the middle"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945560818411549080) 2025-07-16 19:07:00 UTC 201.9K followers, 56.1K engagements "Valuations are unquestionably stretched again with the price/FCF ratio nearing the old highs on both an equal-weighted and cap-weighted basis"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1940405224335946013) 2025-07-02 13:40:31 UTC 201.8K followers, 60K engagements "With both liquidity as well as the stock market rallying its no surprise that Bitcoin is making new highs and taking the baton from gold for a while. You can see that clearly from the diverging Sharpe Ratios below"  [@TimmerFidelity](/creator/x/TimmerFidelity) on [X](/post/tweet/1945174936554770943) 2025-07-15 17:33:39 UTC 201.9K followers, 15.4K engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@TimmerFidelity Jurrien Timmer
Jurrien Timmer posts on X about bitcoin, inflation, fed, debt the most. They currently have XXXXXXX followers and 1590 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +250%
- X Month XXXXXXX +14%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +47%
- X Year XXXXXXXXX -XX%
Mentions: XX #
- X Month XX -XX%
- X Months XXX +23%
- X Year XXX -XX%
Followers: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +0.17%
- X Month XXXXXXX +0.50%
- X Months XXXXXXX +4.90%
- X Year XXXXXXX +7.50%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence finance #2819 cryptocurrencies #995 stocks currencies #1081 countries automotive brands
Social topic influence bitcoin #318, inflation #257, fed #131, debt #82, money #1509, currencies #9, dominance #42, stocks, currency #73, bbb
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"Knowing how much to pay for each dollar of earnings is as much art as science. Thinking of the do you want to own this question from before does the answer change when we add valuation to the mix Do you want to own the chart below knowing that you are paying almost XX times expected earnings Its not a layup"
@TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-09 13:14:42 UTC 201.9K followers, 17.9K engagements
"Bonds continue to churn in a narrow range and I am pleasantly surprised that yields havent already moved above 4.5%. Nothing good happens above 4.5%. The term premium has reverted from its -XXX bps financial repression extreme in 2020 to a much more reasonable +83 bps. Whether it keeps rising will likely depend not only on inflation but also the debt composition of the OBBB. We will find out more soon when the quarterly refunding announcement is released" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-16 18:32:00 UTC 201.9K followers, 14.3K engagements
"The fastest recovery ever continued last week with the S&P XXX index gaining another 2%. The $X trillion Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was passed and it looks like the markets have re-priced in the animal spirits that were part of the red wave playbook last November before they were un-priced in March. And so the pendulum swings back and forth. With the end of the 90-day tariff reprieve looming as well as the quarterly refunding statement and second quarter earnings season we will soon find out what comes next. Renewed tariff pressure could push earnings estimates down while the BBB could lift" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-07 21:40:29 UTC 201.9K followers, 35.6K engagements
"The loss of earnings momentum that was priced in a few months ago as the Tariff Tantrum was raging will now be put to the test as Q2 earnings seasons gets going in another week while the 90-day cooling off period comes to an end. Based on the historical pattern 2nd quarter earnings growth could potentially improve 300-500 bps from the current XXX% which would bring us to the average long-term growth rate of 7%. Barring another tariff tantrum there are reasons to expect earnings growth to improve from here. For one the dollar index is down X% year-over-year which could help earnings growth" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-08 14:57:17 UTC 201.9K followers, 10.4K engagements
"With the jobless rate ticking down to XXX% in June while inflation expectations hold steady there hasnt been much progress from the Taylor Rule. If the neutral rate is around XXX bps (real) and inflation remains sticky at 2.5-3.0% then a few rate cuts are all we might get. While some softening is evident in the US economy US GDP has continued to grow faster than its potential. Between a negative output gap and above-target inflation there doesn't seem to be any reason for monetary policy to be below the neutral rate" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-09 13:16:48 UTC 201.9K followers, 10.7K engagements
"Bitcoin has been benefiting from both a rising global money supply and a rally in risk assets. A win-win for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-11 13:56:37 UTC 201.9K followers, 20.5K engagements
"There is some room for earnings to pick up steam here if the tariff tantrum is really behind us and the BBB unleashes a fiscal boom. Credit spreads seem agree with the above with both investment grade and high yield spreads back near the February tights. A potential divergence is looming between spreads and equities so that bears watching" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-02 13:40:17 UTC 201.8K followers, 11.9K engagements
"At times when the tea leaves are not as easy to read its always a good idea to step back and look at some charts and ask: whats to like or not to like Below is the S&P XXX. There doesn't appear to be much not to like here. The trend is up the index is above its trendline and has been making new highs and breadth is decent. Momentum often begets more momentum. At some point the index will be too far above its rising trendline with sentiment and momentum and breadth no longer confirming those highs but we dont seem to be there yet" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-15 16:37:43 UTC 201.9K followers, 13.5K engagements
"If the Fed is forced back into the bond market to hold down nominal and real rates the dollar may well lose more of its supremacy premium. Currencies are the release valve for unsustainable fiscal policy as Japan found out a few years ago. The same is now true for the dollar which continues to lose strength despite the Feds hawkish policy stance" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-17 13:59:46 UTC 201.9K followers, 16K engagements
"Perhaps gold has been eyeing a new era of fiscal dominance since 2022 when it stopped trading on real rates and started trading on the dollars eroding hegemony. With the US dollar now comprising XX% of all reserve currencies and XX% of allocated reserves golds share of all reserve assets has more than doubled since 2015 from X% to 15%. The chart below shows that gold has been taking market share from fiat reserves including the Dollar and the Euro. In fact gold has now become the second largest reserve asset behind the Dollar and just ahead the Euro" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-11 12:19:09 UTC 201.9K followers, 60K engagements
"With the Big Beautiful Bill now law and expected to add $X trillion in debt the question is whether the US economys speed limit can be raised enough to avoid a debt spiral down the road. The simple math is that the economy needs to grow faster than its cost of borrowing. That has generally been the case over the years and when it wasnt the debt burden was too low to matter. But as the debt burden grows larger that differential between the 10-year yield and the long-term growth rate in GDP will become all-important. If the term premium rises to XXX bps (which seems reasonable to me especially" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-10 19:05:55 UTC 201.9K followers, 25.3K engagements
"In the US both share buybacks and capital spending have been improving in absolute terms and as a percentage of revenues. Those revenues have continued to trend higher for the S&P XXX. There appears to be nothing not to like The rub of course is that all this positive fundamental context is already priced in with the S&P XXX index now trading at XX times free cash flow. Thats back to the nose-bleed levels seen late last year. For the equal-weighted index the multiple is not quite as high (27x) but still near the highs of its historical range. The market is priced for success betting on" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-16 17:59:58 UTC 201.9K followers, 11.6K engagements
"The dollars weakness has been palpable as of late with the DXY continuing to make new lows" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-03 13:01:34 UTC 201.9K followers, 11.1K engagements
"With the S&P XXX index making all-time highs once again the trendline is clearly up and the index is now well above it. This shows momentum which usually begets more momentum. The only thing not to like in the chart below is the tepid breadth with only XX% of stocks above their 200-day moving average" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-08 14:57:35 UTC 201.9K followers, 17.1K engagements
"One of the big questions remains whether a new world order is emerging in which the US dollar loses at least some of its supremacy and is supplanted by a mixture of other fiat currencies and hard money (gold and perhaps Bitcoin). Maybe this regime change was signaled three years ago when gold stopped trading in lockstep with real rates. The latest iteration of this potential secular change is the US dollars inability to rally during times of stress or when interest rate differentials support it. If the dollar is in a sustained downtrend it could provide a major tailwind for non-US equities" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-03 13:02:09 UTC 201.9K followers, 20.4K engagements
"With both liquidity improving per the global money supply and the stock market reaching new highs its no surprise that Bitcoin is on the move again. Both Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde are being supported for now and Bitcoin should be at new all-time highs soon enough if this momentum continues. Bitcoin continues to be straddled by my demand model and the power curve of its wallets. Up and to the right" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-03 15:42:00 UTC 201.9K followers, 31.9K engagements
"Other than the Swiss Franc the dollar is the strongest currency in the world. The greenback as well as US bond yields have benefited the US being the cleanest dirty shirt in a world economy weighed down by a crushing debt load. The question is whether the US will continue to enjoy that privilege in an era of fiscal dominance. The surging price of gold and bitcoin seem to say no. Both gold and bitcoin are seeing this coming from a mile away it seems. If the Fed is at some point forced to execute another QE (quantitative easing) wave to monetize a second fiscal wave then the ensuing" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-17 14:46:33 UTC 201.9K followers, 11.5K engagements
"The Fed remains on hold which in my view is the right thing to do. If neutral is 3.5-4.0% (inflation + XXX bps) the Fed should only cut rates a few times before returning from restrictive to less restrictive to neutral. Anything more is not justified given that inflation remains above target and the jobless rate is below the full employment rate (formerly NAIRU). The Taylor rule says the Fed should be slightly above neutral which is where it is" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-16 18:03:58 UTC 201.9K followers, 16.3K engagements
"Global equities are participating in the risk rally with the MSCI ACWI ex-US index making new highs in both USD and local currency terms. Relative momentum curves continue to converge indicating a chance in leadership. The MSCI EAFE index is also making new highs (in both USD and local currency) and two-thirds of the stocks in that index are participating. Looks good. Even emerging market equities are having a moment at least ex-China" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-02 13:41:29 UTC 201.9K followers, 11.7K engagements
"While political pressure continues on the Fed monetary policy remains on hold which in my view is the correct approach. While there is room to cut rates (3 times according to my math) there is really no hurry to do so. Monetary policy is not that restrictive the US economy is less rate senstitve than it has been and while the inflation rate continues to edge closer to the Feds target it has been quite stubborn. The Fed is leaning into fiscal expansion as it should" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-09 13:15:03 UTC 201.9K followers, 11.3K engagements
"For international equities the trend is up and the MSCI ACWI ex-US index is making new highs both in dollar terms and local currency terms. Breadth seems solid as well with XX% of international stocks above their 200-day moving average. This is now a global bull market" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-15 16:38:14 UTC 201.9K followers, 16.5K engagements
"a premature policy easing runs the risk of being challenged by the bond vigilantes who can bear-steepen the curve and hit the economy where it really hurts" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-10 19:05:14 UTC 201.9K followers, 12.9K engagements
"With the debt ceiling now passed the debt is rising again and the jaws between what the Treasury is selling and what the Fed is buying continue to widen. This will only last for so long in my view. We are now in round two of fiscal dominance with the first $X trillion helicopter drop taking place during COVID and now the second one about to get underway from the OBBB. The math is simple but difficult: as long as nominal GDP growth outpaces the funding rate (10-year Treasury yield) the debt can be considered sustainable. Hopefully that happens as a capex cycle from both the OBBB and the AI" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-17 13:45:04 UTC 201.9K followers, 16.7K engagements
"Whether the fiscal impulse from the OBBB (not to mention tariffs) will cause another inflation wave is an important question not only for the Fed as it contemplates the timing of its next rate cut but for fixed income and equity valuations as well. Below we see that the TIPS 5y5y forward break-even has been stuck in a tight range of 2.0-2.5% since the COVID spike in 2020. Nothing to see here. Well well see. If inflation does wake up again it could be a problem for both the equity risk premium and term premium both of which are on the low side of their historical range" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-16 18:01:25 UTC 201.9K followers, 10.5K engagements
"Q2 earnings season starts this week and based on the estimate markdowns in April and May followed by improving financial conditions and a weaker dollar my hunch is that earnings will surprise to the upside. The last few quarters produced a bounce of at least XXX bps so well see if that pattern repeats" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-15 17:32:54 UTC 201.9K followers, 12.7K engagements
"Bitcoins adoption curve has continued to grow as evidenced by the ongoing influx of capital entering the scene via the various ETPs. Whether these flows are from true believers or momentum renters is hard to tell. The Bitcoin chart shows a clean stairstep process of new highs followed by consolidations followed by new highs. As such bitcoin has continued to follow both the Power Law curve of its wallets as well as my demand model based on the internet adoption curve from a few decades ago. We are right in the middle" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-16 19:07:00 UTC 201.9K followers, 56.1K engagements
"Valuations are unquestionably stretched again with the price/FCF ratio nearing the old highs on both an equal-weighted and cap-weighted basis" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-02 13:40:31 UTC 201.8K followers, 60K engagements
"With both liquidity as well as the stock market rallying its no surprise that Bitcoin is making new highs and taking the baton from gold for a while. You can see that clearly from the diverging Sharpe Ratios below" @TimmerFidelity on X 2025-07-15 17:33:39 UTC 201.9K followers, 15.4K engagements