# ![@TimmerFidelity Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2918307101.png) @TimmerFidelity Jurrien Timmer

Jurrien Timmer, a market analyst, has been sharing his insights on the current market trends. He is drawing parallels between the current market and the late 1990s, citing similarities in the post-rate hike rally and the performance of various assets. Timmer is also discussing the potential risks and opportunities in the market, including the concentration risk posed by the "Mag 7" stocks and the role of gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets.

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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  42.22% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  #917 [countries](/list/countries)  3.7% [stocks](/list/stocks)  3.7% [musicians](/list/musicians)  0.74% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  0.74% [currencies](/list/currencies)  0.74%

**Social topic influence**
[bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #416, [market](/topic/market) 21.48%, [gold](/topic/gold) #4099, [to the](/topic/to-the) 8.89%, [bull](/topic/bull) 8.89%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) 8.15%, [fed](/topic/fed) 8.15%, [growth](/topic/growth) 7.41%, [we are](/topic/we-are) 6.67%, [cycle](/topic/cycle) 5.93%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@fidelity](/creator/undefined) [@paulheckman](/creator/undefined) [@peterlbrandt](/creator/undefined) [@xwinfinancejp](/creator/undefined) [@tigergoel](/creator/undefined) [@the_jdk99](/creator/undefined) [@stumitchell60](/creator/undefined) [@riskreversal](/creator/undefined) [@100trillionusd](/creator/undefined) [@edaison_stofel](/creator/undefined) [@cryptodaaddy](/creator/undefined) [@tensorproducer](/creator/undefined) [@wahoopredict](/creator/undefined) [@gemscancrypto](/creator/undefined) [@eaudemacro](/creator/undefined) [@owoldestiny](/creator/undefined) [@albert_gamero](/creator/undefined) [@gabidolphins](/creator/undefined) [@jefffocker](/creator/undefined) [@flyundernoflag](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Its Carnaval week in Aruba which can only mean one thing: Im cooking up a storm for the Timmer family & friends Tonight: Chateaubriand with peppercorn sauce served on arugula and sweet potato puree"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021397629612196317)  2026-02-11T01:35Z 210.3K followers, 11.2K engagements


"And its not just global earnings that have been showing momentum. Payouts (dividends + buybacks) have been advancing as well as companies near and far have become more shareholder savvy. The growth rate of payouts has been the primary driver of the DCF model (the numerator) and the chart below (showing the 5-year CAGR) illustrates that the US is no longer the only game in town. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021600120387797268 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021600120387797268"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021600120387797268)  2026-02-11T15:00Z 210.3K followers, 21.2K engagements


"Tonights dinner in Aruba (for 16): local red snapper filets on black beans & papaya with an avocado cream as base"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021748711076835766)  2026-02-12T00:50Z 210.3K followers, 11K engagements


"The commodities complex got caught in the crossfire of the precious metals margin call last week but the chart of the Bloomberg commodity spot index remains solid. With gold already bouncing I suspect we will see new highs soon enough"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021977606007177706)  2026-02-12T16:00Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"It was another eventful week with lots of gyrations around the theme of AI winners and losers as well as a massive purge in the precious metals and crypto space.But beneath these headlines the broad market continued to broaden in the best way possible.The result: on Friday the Dow reached the 50k milestone while many of us were focused on Bitcoin and the fate of the SaaS stocks. Let's explore in this week's Weekly Asset Allocation Review."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021323324211573047)  2026-02-10T20:40Z 210.3K followers, 20.7K engagements


"With [---] companies reporting 79% are beating estimates by an average of [---] bps. The Q4 dollar estimate has now bounced $4 which is in line with the result of the past few quarters. This shows that the earnings momentum which began in late [----] has continued. Whether its due to AI or OBBBA or both the momentum is palpable. The [----] and [----] estimates have continued to rise at a 14-15% clip which is also where the trailing 5-year CAGR is. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021339643380367737 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021339643380367737"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021339643380367737)  2026-02-10T21:45Z 210.3K followers, 21K engagements


"This formidable earnings growth has allowed valuations to take a back seat for a change. While the 5-year CAPE ratio is up there at 32x the n12m P/E multiple doesnt seem too onerous at 22x considering not only the earnings momentum mentioned above but also the level of credit spreads and margins. When normalizing the equity risk premium against these two macro variables my DCF math suggests that the market is 10% too high but nothing like the bubble days of the late 1990s. We appear to be in a boom but not a bubble. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021585011267567671"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021585011267567671)  2026-02-11T14:00Z 210.3K followers, 10.4K engagements


"The earnings boom has gone global with estimates in both EAFE and EM showing good momentum. The blue squiggles show estimates for the S&P [---] and the pink ones are for the MSCI EAFE index. The days of significant divergences are over for now. The black line with the yellow trend channel suggests that the long standing relative uptrend for the S&P [---] against EAFE has been broken. That suggests a multi-year period of global broadening. If so it will be a valuable antidote to concentration risk. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021592564684517875"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021592564684517875)  2026-02-11T14:30Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"How might the Fed/Treasury do that One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Feds balance sheet can be privatized. If those QE assets transfer from the Feds balance sheet to the banks presumably the multiplier effect will transfer from Wall Street to Main Street. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021947402953920560 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021947402953920560"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021947402953920560)  2026-02-12T14:00Z 210.3K followers, 12.4K engagements


"Commodities have become a strategic asset in this increasingly multi-polar world and both gold and the broader commodity index remain appealing diversifiers in a 60/40 (make that 60/20/20) portfolio. The chart below is similar to the scatter plot above but this time I show commodities against the S&P [---]. It highlights silvers recent moon shot until it almost kissed Bitcoin. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021992697217593754 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021992697217593754"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021992697217593754)  2026-02-12T17:00Z 210.3K followers, 11.9K engagements


"The big news last week was of course the announcement that Kevin Warsh will be nominated as the next Fed chair. Warsh is well respected in the markets and not considered a perma-dove or a political pushover. Suddenly the prospect of a fragmented and chaotic Fed in which one side wants to push rates to 1% and the other side wants to keep the status quo seems less plausible. The effect on the dollar precious metals and Bitcoin was swift. My understanding of Mr. Warsh is that he is not a fan of balance sheet activism. That suggests that QE might stop being an active part of the Feds tool kit."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2019462210016141513)  2026-02-05T17:24Z 210.3K followers, 16.3K engagements


"In my view commodities (including precious metals) continue to serve as important diversifiers in this era of fiscal dominance regardless of who finances the debt and how. The somewhat cosmic looking chart below shows commodities and bonds since the cyclical bull started in October [----] with the inflation-adjusted returns (y-axis) indexed against the S&P [---] nominal return (x-axis). The size of the bubbles shows the 52-week correlation to the S&P [---]. This chart highlights how quickly precious metals (gold and silver) have risen in the ranks despite their very low correlation and how they"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2019838620161515644)  2026-02-06T18:20Z 210.3K followers, 15.2K engagements


"Sharing this chart showing the inflation-adjusted market capitalization of gold and silver since [----] with Bitcoin added in [----]. The bubbles show the 5-year price inflation rate (CPI) and the shading show the 5-year monetary inflation rate (M2). Gold is at $35 trillion and silver and Bitcoin are at $1.8 trillion (using some creative assumptions on my part to determine the above ground supply of silver). Its amazing to me that it took Bitcoin [--] years to reach a market cap of $1.8 trillion it took silver five millennia. Apples to oranges of course but still."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2019838720782852545)  2026-02-06T18:20Z 210.3K followers, 41.9K engagements


"It was another eventful week with lots of gyrations around the theme of AI winners and losers as well as a massive purge in the precious metals and crypto space. But beneath these headlines the broad market continued to broaden in the best way possible. The result: on Friday the Dow reached the 50k milestone while many of us were focused on Bitcoin and the fate of the SaaS stocks. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021323828463333763 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021323828463333763"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021323828463333763)  2026-02-10T20:42Z 210.3K followers, 10.8K engagements


"While the Mag [--] have gone nowhere since October the rest of the market is catching up without any price damage to the overall index. Its a good outcome and far better than the zero-sum kind that I feared last year in which the Mag [--] might decline sharply and drag the index with it. That could change of course but for now we are having our cake and eating it too. The chart below illustrates the M7s holding pattern. Hopefully its not a distribution top like we experienced a year ago. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021324589964447943 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021324589964447943"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021324589964447943)  2026-02-10T20:45Z 210.3K followers, 16.3K engagements


"Things have been quiet on the rate side with the 10-year yield trading at around [--] percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm.We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between the Fed and Treasury with the Bessent-Warsh duo coordinating on monetary and fiscal policy as the Treasury tries to digest the $5 trillion OBBBA while also democratizing the Feds balance sheet so that its not just the capital owners who benefit from financial repression. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021944881929961882 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021944881929961882"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021944881929961882)  2026-02-12T13:50Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"What this level of coordination will mean for the dollar remains to be seen but my sense is that this subtle expression of fiscal dominance will be a negative. While the bearish trade is obvious and well subscribed (judging by sentiment levels) the trend remains firmly down per the blue regression channel below. However the new cycle low for the DXY at [----] two weeks ago did get rejected so for now the new lower range is holding. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021962500871422090 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021962500871422090"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021962500871422090)  2026-02-12T15:00Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"The bond market precious metals and currencies seem on edge and as the chart shows below theres a bit of dj vu with regards to the interplay of the 10-year Treasury yield the dollar index and gold. Tariffs or not the world order is changing from a dollar-only standard to multiple spheres of influence and the markets are taking notice. In fact one could argue that all commodities are becoming strategic assets in this multipolar world. The chart below remains one of the more compelling ones out there. the move higher in yields and lower in the dollar are a mere echo of what we experienced in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2016506489939120450)  2026-01-28T13:39Z 209.4K followers, 58.1K engagements


"Aside from the geopolitical reshuffling of the world order there have been some big fireworks in Japans bond market. The JGB curve continues to bear steepen at a rapid rate and one cant help but wonder whether this will spread to the rest of the debt-burdened world. The JGB price action is a far cry from the days (and years) of quiet since Japan went down the financial repression path. You can only hold a beach ball under water for so long. If the JGB bear steepener spreads to the US we could soon be returning to the 4.5-5.0% danger zone for the 10-year Treasury. The stock market will not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2016870193343971471)  2026-01-29T13:45Z 209.4K followers, 10.3K engagements


"Earnings season is now under way with [--] companies reporting of which 81% are beating estimates by [---] bps. So far we havent seen the customary bounce but I suspect that we will be seeing that next week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2016885544219816401)  2026-01-29T14:46Z 209.4K followers, [----] engagements


"The Investors Intelligence survey shows enthusiasm (with bulls at 60% and bears at 15%) but its not shared by other sentiment metrics. For instance the call/put ratio is fairly subdued"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2016915994459951554)  2026-01-29T16:47Z 209.4K followers, [----] engagements


"As for equities the broadening continues and so far not at the expense of the mega caps. This is good to see. The Mag [--] have remained in their holding pattern while market breadth has become quite healthy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016958748175048815 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016958748175048815"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2016958748175048815)  2026-01-29T19:36Z 209.4K followers, 10.3K engagements


"The question of equity valuation continues to befuddle investors. The 5-year CAPE ratio is at 32x which is among the highest ever. Even the 4-quarter trailing P/E ratio is well above average at 25x. The question always is whether and when (and by how much and from which point) valuations will mean revert. Many value-oriented investors have gone out of business assuming that mean reversion is a sure thing but as we know trends can persist for a very long time. 🧵 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017270964715733272 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017270964715733272"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2017270964715733272)  2026-01-30T16:17Z 209.4K followers, 17.4K engagements


"If we combine both the operating margin and credit spreads as independent variables and toss them into the regression blender we get an R of [----] since [----] and [----] since [----]. Not bad. /6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2017271576589168669)  2026-01-30T16:19Z 209.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Whats the bottom line Based on margins and spreads the ERP should currently be 4.4% which is pretty close to the 4.1% from the two DCF models. The long term average is 5%. My conclusion: the upper-decile CAPE ratio notwithstanding we are not in a bubble and in fact not even that overvalued as long as credit spreads remain tight and margins remain elevated. Contrast this to [----] when there was a very clear signal that the market was in a bubble. /END https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017271676354904562 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017271676354904562"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2017271676354904562)  2026-01-30T16:20Z 209.4K followers, [----] engagements


"January delivered another eventful start to the year with equities extending their cyclical and secular bull trends even as valuations push higher. Strong earnings tight credit spreads and record margins continue to justify the markets premium. I break down the data and what it means for investors in my latest note. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/track-jurrien-timmer-wedde/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/track-jurrien-timmer-wedde/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2018780300319523171)  2026-02-03T20:15Z 209.7K followers, 20.3K engagements


"Amped up for a @Fidelity event in Tampa tonight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2018875066931675416)  2026-02-04T02:31Z 210.1K followers, [----] engagements


"International equities continue to enjoy their well-deserved run (dominated by emerging markets) and managed futures are coming back from their slump last spring when the tariff tantrum caused a major whipsaw. Of course averages are just that and as the chart shows below the dispersion of outcomes is quite large and dependent on fundamentals and sentiment. For now the fundamentals are good and the market is priced accordingly. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019080885828477374 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019080885828477374"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2019080885828477374)  2026-02-04T16:09Z 210.2K followers, [----] engagements


"The S&P [---] valuation is in the upper percentiles at a 5-year CAPE ratio of 32x but that valuation seems justified considering that the 5-year earnings CAGR is 14% credit spreads are near all-time lows and profit margins are at all-time highs and rising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2019080956498391518)  2026-02-04T16:09Z 209.4K followers, 12.6K engagements


"Earnings season is now in full swing and with [---] companies reporting 79% are beating estimates by an average of 9.35%. Accordingly the estimated growth rate for Q4 earnings has jumped from 8% to 12% in line with the Q3 progression. This bump in Q4 EPS has elevated the calendar year growth rate to 13%. Last year produced 11.4% growth and the estimates for [----] and [----] are 14-15%. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019081180738433120 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019081180738433120"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2019081180738433120)  2026-02-04T16:10Z 209.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Last week I did a deep dive on valuations to show that the implied equity risk premium (iERP) is well below the 5% long term average but justified by both credit spreads and margins. The DCF is elegant but tricky because of its many variables and assumptions. If you assume that the current 5-year earnings CAGR of 14% will continue in perpetuity the iERP is at a healthy 5%. But if you assume that the estimates are wrong and use the 7% long-term average for earnings growth the iERP falls to 3.5%. My preferred approach is to split the difference which is to take the current N12M earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2019461516467069254)  2026-02-05T17:21Z 209.4K followers, 10.4K engagements


"What happens to the debasement narrative if a new Fed-Treasury accord is formed wherein the Treasury and Fed coordinate on debt management without relying on the Fed to push short rates to unjustifiable levels nor expand its balance sheet The markets certainly spoke loudly last week although an increase in margin requirements didnt help matters. My sense is that the debasement trade will continue once the tree has been shaken of weak-handed longs (which it certainly did last week). The debt is unstoppable regardless of who finances it. For gold support is around $4400. Against a global money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2019838328674074714)  2026-02-06T18:19Z 210.1K followers, 17.5K engagements


"@Paul_Heckman_ Dumpling soup with dash broth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2020263791943139449)  2026-02-07T22:29Z 209.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@Paul_Heckman_ Dashi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2020264235360747755)  2026-02-07T22:31Z 209.4K followers, [---] engagements


"The markets spoke loudly last week to the next Fed Chair being announced. For Bitcoin though I continue to view $65k as an attractive entry point. Given the distance between gold and Bitcoin vis--vis their support levels I suspect that gold will continue to outpace Bitcoin until the flows converge further. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019838479417389200 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019838479417389200"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2019838479417389200)  2026-02-06T18:19Z 210.3K followers, 19.6K engagements


"Which brings me to the long wave and when (and if and how) it will eventually end. Looking at the 1949-1968 and 1982-2000 secular bull markets this one appears to be in its final innings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2003571318180995114)  2025-12-23T21:00Z 210.3K followers, 137.4K engagements


"Of course 50k is just a round number but like birthdays and anniversaries they make us pause and pay tribute to lifes inextricable growth path"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021324522587136476)  2026-02-10T20:44Z 210.3K followers, 11.6K engagements


"Theres a lot of bubble talk out there but in my view its still early days. Below I show my 1998-2000 analog with the valuation of CSCO back then overlaid on the valuation of NVDA today. Those are the then-and-now poster children of the internet and AI booms. As you can see we are nowhere close to the kinds of silly season valuation extremes reached in 2000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985361646378766712)  2025-11-03T15:01Z 210.3K followers, 161.1K engagements


"The task of justifying the high valuations in the US is easier overseas simply because the forward P/E for international equities is only 15x. That could be a value trap of course but the chart below shows that earnings estimates are growing even faster for both EAFE and EM. Their returns have followed as they usually do. Not only are earnings growing faster so is the payout (dividends plus buybacks). Especially the MSCI EM index is showing a sharp pickup in the payout ratio. When you plot the payout ratio and growth rate against the P/E ratio we get the chart below. The 5-year payout CAGR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2019462598907822224)  2026-02-05T17:26Z 210.3K followers, 10.6K engagements


"Not only are the S&P [---] catching up but so are markets around the world. The cosmic scatter plot chart below tracks the S&P [---] nominal index on the x-axis against its real index (along with a variety of global indices) on the y-axis. An index above the horizontal axis means that it has outpaced inflation since [----]. The size of the bubbles shows the correlation to the S&P [---]. The Mag [--] are so far ahead that it will take a lot to catch up but it appears to be happening. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021328322668659092 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021328322668659092"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021328322668659092)  2026-02-10T21:00Z 210.3K followers, 11.6K engagements


"Sentiment in the stock market appears somewhat mixed. The Investors Intelligence survey (below) does show that the percentage of bulls is near the historical highs (62) while the percent bears is near the low (15). However that level of enthusiasm is not evident in the call/put ratio (not shown) nor in the price of speculative stocks (below). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021615213821489200 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021615213821489200"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2021615213821489200)  2026-02-11T16:00Z 210.3K followers, 10.3K engagements


"While both silver and Bitcoin took it on the chin last week (at least until Friday) gold held in like a champ. Per the chart below while gold did drop about $1200/oz in the span of two weeks it held trendline support and has continued to oscillate around an ever expanding global money supply. The uptrend seems intact and now also refreshed after the margin calls. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022324894332289347 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022324894332289347"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2022324894332289347)  2026-02-13T15:00Z 210.3K followers, 11K engagements


"Finally Bitcoin fell to $60k last week which is in the support zone that I suggested a few months ago when I wrote that another 4-year cycle bull market had likely ended. A decline to only $60k would be relatively shallow for a Bitcoin winter but as the commodity currency matures its ups and downs should become less dramatic. Its anyones guess whether $60k is the low but my guess is that it is and that after a few months of backing and filling the next cyclical bull market will get underway. Based on the mathematical harmony of past cycles which of course are not a guarantee of future cycles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2022339993537335678)  2026-02-13T16:00Z 210.3K followers, 157.3K engagements


"A brighter future The #markets being the discounting mechanism that they are seems to be looking past current concerns and on to what will hopefully be better days for the economy in [----] and [----]. My take: https://go.fidelity.com/5b7rm https://go.fidelity.com/5b7rm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1329454171666386945)  2020-11-19T15:59Z 210.3K followers, [---] engagements


"Bull markets are more sustainable when the tree gets occasionally shaken and my best guess is that this is what we are seeing now. (END)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1399825872195051520)  2021-06-01T20:31Z 210.3K followers, [---] engagements


"Bitcoin made a new all-time high of $66000 on Wednesday. The chart below shows that both my supply and demand models continue to point to higher prices. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1451628190515048454)  2021-10-22T19:15Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"is $40k the new $30k The Feds hawkish stance on inflation has had broad impact. With the liquidity-driven momentum plays under pressure its not a total shock that crypto has corrected. So whats next for bitcoin (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1481004884455571465)  2022-01-11T20:47Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"A few days ago I made the case that 40k could be the new 30k for Bitcoin based on the rising intrinsic value from my S-curve model. I just came across an indicator that further suggests this: Dormancy flow. It has reached the kind of oversold levels seen at past bottoms.🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1481768037619482624)  2022-01-13T23:20Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoin has been in a choppy trading range for almost a year now bouncing between 30k and 65k. The up-or-down debate continues to be a favorite hobby for many but its mostly noise. For Bitcoin the network is what matters. Let's dig deeper. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1494432555524837382)  2022-02-17T22:04Z 210.3K followers, 10.5K engagements


"What does gold know With real rates rising as quickly as they are the tried-and-true TIPS model suggests that gold should have fallen to [----] or so. Instead it is holding in like a champ at around $1950. Why 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1515040657521491969)  2022-04-15T18:53Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoin boring Gasp But boring is good if you want institutional adoption. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1516868269885513729)  2022-04-20T19:55Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoin will likely evolve from the early go-go days to a more mature two-way market driven by network growth and the pace of adoption less by scarcity (which is written in stone and mostly baked in). So lets do a deep-dive on historical adoption curves. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1519053900409671681)  2022-04-26T20:40Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"The pandemic era market in one chart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1520037687318700033)  2022-04-29T13:50Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Look what I just saw upon takeoff from Dublin ☘"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1524428703412867075)  2022-05-11T16:38Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"An update on Bitcoin: Lets take a look at my favorite metrics to see where things stand after last weeks sell-off. /THREAD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1526203433484681217)  2022-05-16T14:10Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Is BTC cheaper than it looks If we consider a simple P/E metric for BTC to be the price/network ratio then that ratio is back to [----] and [----] levels even though BTC itself is only back to late [----] levels. Valuation often is more important than price. /THREAD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1536902560463847425)  2022-06-15T02:44Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"We are in that awkward phase of the market cycle where earnings growth is slowing and valuations are compressing. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1546923598027362304)  2022-07-12T18:25Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Eye on digital currencies: If you believe in Bitcoins adoption-curve thesis (i.e. that the network will continue to expand in line with previous S-curves) then it's reasonable to view Bitcoin as cheap at these levels. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1559997086912942080)  2022-08-17T20:14Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Sorry to disappoint but I think the 1940s analog is a good mirror for today's market cycle. Back then after falling 26% the market traded sideways for several years as nominal earnings held up while valuations came down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1570423893332049923)  2022-09-15T14:46Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Look who's bullish: Corporate insiders are buying their company stock again in size during this latest sell-off. As the saying goes insiders sell for all kinds of reasons but they only buy for one. Given the historical accuracy of their timing its a glass-half-full sign"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1580213737365311499)  2022-10-12T15:08Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Following up on my last thread central banks face a big problem: Too much debt and slowing demographics. Let's dive deeper into the implications for markets. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1583476459662110720)  2022-10-21T15:13Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Third-quarter earnings are hitting their targets but of course earnings growth is slowingin fact 71% of industry groups are seeing downward revisions. All things considered the hoped-for soft landing looks real. That might prove to be a mirage next year but not yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1584985394646581251)  2022-10-25T19:09Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"The recent rally in stocks deviated from liquidity conditions which have held steady but have not improved. This is just one reason to question whether there is an adequate foundation to support a new bull market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1625577342557888512)  2023-02-14T19:26Z 210.3K followers, 288.3K engagements


"Its starting to look like a new bull market. Do the fundamentals support that view 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1671265612923015170)  2023-06-20T21:15Z 210.3K followers, 357.6K engagements


"The stock market has regained nearly three-fourths of the ground it lost last year. Bear-market rallies dont retrace much more than half their preceding decline. When they do they are usually new bull markets. With our current 73% retracement history seems to be on the side of the bulls here. We could still be in a long trading range (like the 1940s) but the market has now spent a year and a halfa long timebucking the long-term uptrend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1680956096561684480)  2023-07-17T15:02Z 210.3K followers, 531.6K engagements


"Who is going to buy all the debt that the Treasury is issuing 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1716915999809937728)  2023-10-24T20:34Z 210.3K followers, 730.7K engagements


"Bitcoin is on the move again (following the pattern of previous boom-bust cycles so far). What to make of it Lets revisit my thesis from late 2020: 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719842775892398213)  2023-11-01T22:24Z 210.3K followers, 487.1K engagements


"Bitcoin is volatile but its scarcity and adoption curve create the potential for it to be a high-powered hedge against monetary shenanigans. I think of it as exponential gold. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720152886863179937)  2023-11-02T18:56Z 210.3K followers, 330K engagements


"With Bitcoin moving up once again will its adoption curve accelerate as it did a few years ago And how does the macro trend on rates affect it Here's some data to consider: 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720155688100368662)  2023-11-02T19:07Z 210.3K followers, 175.6K engagements


"Next lets add Bitcoin. As you can see below its in a different universe. /3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720157959336919072)  2023-11-02T19:16Z 210.3K followers, 200.2K engagements


"The price of Bitcoin is rising from the depths of its latest crypto winter now exceeding $40k. Let's explore how the Bitcoin picture is evolving. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1732847992183349706)  2023-12-07T19:42Z 210.3K followers, 500K engagements


"Could the murmurs of an SEC update on Bitcoin be the next big thing Or a sell-the-news moment Thats a tough one to answer but let's consider the key factors: 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1732856547800240186)  2023-12-07T20:16Z 210.3K followers, 288K engagements


"In my view the price of Bitcoin is driven by the size and growth of its network which in turn is driven by its scarcity features (stock-to-flow) and real rates (Fed policy). As the chart shows Bitcoins network is growing in line with a standard power regression curve. That means that the S-curve nature of Bitcoins network remains on track"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1749825855449121092)  2024-01-23T16:06Z 210.3K followers, 313.6K engagements


"Even if the broader market catches up to the mega caps that doesnt tell us whether they will outperform. We are living in one of the narrowest markets in history with only 26% of stocks outperforming the index. The last time this happened (1998-2000) it all ended in tears (down 53%) and the previous period (1970-73) led to a regime of valuation destruction (with the P/E ratio declining from 20x to 7x). These are not happy analogs to fish from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1753065540069843354)  2024-02-01T14:39Z 210.3K followers, 249.5K engagements


"Fed pivot or not liquidity is on the rise again. Overall liquidity as defined by the Feds balance sheet less reverse repos (RRP) less the Treasurys cash balance at the Fed (TGA) has been rising since mid-2023 taking stocks with it. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1767572643505476058)  2024-03-12T15:25Z 210.3K followers, 277.3K engagements


"In my view bitcoin is exponential gold and an aspiring player on the store of value team. My work suggests that the price of bitcoin is driven primarily by the growth in its network which is in turn driven by bitcoins unique scarcity feature as well as the monetary and fiscal policy cycle and of course sentiment.🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1801293915917623550)  2024-06-13T16:41Z 210.3K followers, 254.1K engagements


"My sense is that we are in the 7th inning of a secular bull market which began in [----]. I know many technicians (including my esteemed colleagues) use a later start date (2013) and they may well be right. But I like my method in that it uses multiple approaches that yield the same conclusion.🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1867264851976073228)  2024-12-12T17:46Z 210.3K followers, 193.5K engagements


"We often look to the bond market for clues when it comes to equity risk. Credit analysts focus on balance sheets and they often sense trouble before the equity folks do.🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907805442706706494)  2025-04-03T14:40Z 210.3K followers, 250.5K engagements


"Its easy to forget just how many 20% drawdowns we have had just in the past [--] years. We had the 28% decline in [----] the 35% decline in [----] and a 20% decline in [----]. In other words every two years the market suffers a large drawdown and it has come back every time (sometimes quickly and sometimes slowly)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912204416133853570)  2025-04-15T18:00Z 210.3K followers, 167.3K engagements


"For now the [----] analog continues to hold and shows a textbook pattern of a normal 10% correction giving way to an impulsive 20% decline then rebounding but initially failing at the old breakdown point. From there the index retested the lows held took out the retracement high and with the help of three rate cuts from the Greenspan Fed was off to the races. While fundamentally [----] was quite a different cycle from today its worth noting that the valuation backdrop is similar. At the cycle peak in July [----] the P/E multiple was 25x and from there it fell to 20x at the low. A cycle bottom P/E of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914719831204549079)  2025-04-22T16:35Z 210.3K followers, 175.1K engagements


"At times of uncertainty I find it useful to pull up a simple chart of the S&P [---] and ask myself: do I want to be long or short this chart Different people will come up with different answers but for me the chart below suggests long. We have a rising uptrend line and a market that just swung from well-above it to well-below. We are now at that line which suggests that the market has found its balance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920148872690532867)  2025-05-07T16:09Z 210.3K followers, 214.4K engagements


"The S&P [---] index has now gained 88% since the cyclical bull market started [--] months ago on October [--] [----]. The median bull market lasts [--] months and produces a 90% gain so this one remains on par with history"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965422443746542037)  2025-09-09T14:30Z 210.3K followers, 91.1K engagements


"Earnings overseas opportunities & stocks sideways march: This & more in my @Fidelity market check in: http://bit.ly/2qg94D5 http://bit.ly/2qg94D5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/859077158555316226)  2017-05-01T16:08Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Outlook is murky w/trade tensions & not knowing where Fed will end up. But: a lot of uncertainty is already reflected by lowered valuations. Since Jan markets P/E ratio has fallen to 15.4x. In other words investors are better compensated for taking on an uncertain future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1070789795696254979)  2018-12-06T21:19Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Take a look: The [----] market low on December [--] could turn out to be a lasting market bottom similar to [----] [----] and [----]. In those cycles there was a meaningful correction no recession and a central bank pivotthe Fed in [----] and [----] and the ECB in 2011"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1092854381450616832)  2019-02-05T18:36Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Earnings growth: The calendar year estimate is +4.6% growth after a +22.4% growth rate in [----]. Theres still downside risk to the [----] estimate but earnings are expected to return to trend in [----]. Estimates are for +11.2% in [----] & +9.5% in 2021"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1115687338892496896)  2019-04-09T18:46Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Trade spat fallout: Beyond the US the drama is really being felt. Emerging market stocks are down 9% and the Chinese #yuan is down to [----] against the #USD. #EM #currency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1128390303017328640)  2019-05-14T20:03Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Market expectations are for an #earnings recovery to 10% in [----] & [----] but as we get closer to year end a downside revision drift is very possiblea seasonal thing as analysts revisit assumptions but one that is likely to be amplified with the global slowdown & the #tradewar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1171113811157368835)  2019-09-09T17:31Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Since a trading high of [----] on 6/8 the market has churned in a narrow range of 8% (2965-3233). There is a gap in the daily chart (near the b) that could become an island reversal. My guess: were in a correction/consolidation phase with a possible downside risk to 2850-2950"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1275834588221366273)  2020-06-24T16:54Z 210.3K followers, [--] engagements


"Here the markets return since [----] with a simple exponential regression line on top. Secular bull markets typically start 50% below the trend line & end [--] years later 100% above the trend line. Were currently [--] years in & sitting on the line. Note: No evidence of a bubble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1301532920243511296)  2020-09-03T14:50Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Each week I share my latest take on the #market and what it might mean for investors. Check it out: http://go.fidelity.com/t82m5 http://go.fidelity.com/t82m5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1318579293811838976)  2020-10-20T15:46Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Small-cap value stocks are catching up to large-cap growth #stocks both on an absolute and relative basis. In other words market leadership is broadening out which is consistent with an early-cycle #bullmarket. #smallcaps #SPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1328777928340107264)  2020-11-17T19:12Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Emerging markets: With the #economy in China improving the #USdollar making new lows & the #Fed keeping financial conditions loose EM #equities continue to outperform. For the first time in 2+ years the MSCI EM Index is outperforming the #SP500 on a year-over-year basis. #SPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1330966599797518347)  2020-11-23T20:09Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoin: In my view bitcoin has evolved to the point that it could be treated as a form of digital golda possible counterweight to future monetary inflation. My current take on the cryptocurrency here: https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/9901337.htmlpos=T https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/9901337.htmlpos=T"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1366407126655111170)  2021-03-01T15:17Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"It was four months ago that I first wrote about bitcoin and a lot has happened (and a lot has been learned) since then. So here is a refresh of my take on the topic. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1382026394541174787)  2021-04-13T17:42Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"As a lifelong technician I am finding that bitcoin lends itself well to technical analysis. Here is my take on the recent price action. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1399825837172707335)  2021-06-01T20:31Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"In my view it looks like the bottom is in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1404490500657274881)  2021-06-14T17:26Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Some perspective on bitcoin: It's an aspiring asset class that looks to be coming of age much as gold did during the 1970s when it too was an asset class teenager growing into adulthood. Teenagers are full of potential but they can also wreck your car. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1420735780478234631)  2021-07-29T13:19Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"At the risk of cherry-picking the timing of the above chart fits with my supply/demand models below. Both charts suggests that bitcoin is not done with its current bullish phase. h/t to @100trillionUSD /END"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1420735794176745483)  2021-07-29T13:19Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Where is Bitcoin headed No predictions here but for me the S2F model & my demand model (based on historical S-curves) offers guidance. The next & last time the two models converge is at $100k in [----] suggesting positive but relatively modest gains & likely continued volatility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1466784791102033921)  2021-12-03T15:02Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"It has been a bad trip for crypto. The GS Bitcoin-sensitive equity basket already took out its [----] lowsnot a great sign. I thought $40k would be a bottom based on my demand model and on-chain dynamics (via the dormancy flow indicator) but here we are at $35k. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1486091498580066316)  2022-01-25T21:39Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoin often overshoots the upside and downside though so maybe thats all that is happening here. Here is the entity-adjusted dormancy flow which measures the transfer from weak hands to strong hands. It is in the range that has stopped every previous decline. /2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1486091503369924613)  2022-01-25T21:39Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"At some point the Fed may have to choose between recession and structural inflation. I'd bet on the latter but we're not there yet. Perhaps gold which has decoupled from real rates (by going up when it should be going down) is already sensing that inevitability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1486720149520539648)  2022-01-27T15:18Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"What matters most is where the demand curve is going and the answer continues to be up and to the right. Below we see that the number of Bitcoin addresses (with a value of more than zero) continues to move higher following a simple power regression curve. /2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1494432559807270924)  2022-02-17T22:04Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"So whats next for Bitcoins demand curve Below are two possible measures based on historical S-curves: mobile phone subscriptions and internet adoption. They show different slopes but suggest a similar overall long-term growth path/END"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1494432588131414022)  2022-02-17T22:04Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"While Bitcoin remains in its triangle-holding pattern the bitcoin-sensitive equities seem to be on the move. A sign of things to come"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1505998932840656902)  2022-03-21T20:05Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Will Bitcoin become a fixture Here we see the number of global mobile phone users and global internet users regressed against the number of BTC addresses. Both analogs support the idea that the Bitcoin (and Ethereum) network has a lot more growing to do. / 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1519053975085105155)  2022-04-26T20:41Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Its time for a fresh take on Bitcoins supply/demand dynamics. Take a look at this first chart and well dive in. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1532468788184113165)  2022-06-02T21:06Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Heres the entire market in one chart. /END"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1536883269630939136)  2022-06-15T01:28Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"It's the middle of summer but for crypto it's winter. Bitcoin and crypto in general have not been spared from the widespread drawdowns this year and thats an understatement. So lets see where things stand. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1545451151671398405)  2022-07-08T16:54Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Are we witnessing the beginning of an earnings contraction or is the rate of growth merely slowing The answer will determine whether the current 25% drawdown will be the end of this valuation reset or the start of a full-fledged recession bear market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1550126384411918343)  2022-07-21T14:31Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Rally at a crossroad: The S&P [---] has retraced 53% of its decline and this is as far as bear market rallies go. That means that if the market continues to climb technically speaking there will be no historical basis for concluding that this is not a new cyclical bull market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1561771404730703876)  2022-08-22T17:44Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Despite strong earnings the rally from June lows led to a significant valuation creep. The key for this cycle: As the two-year yield goes so goes the P/E ratio. The S&P [---] gave back two P/E points during the latest down leg but its still more than three points overvalued"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1569336404634734595)  2022-09-12T14:45Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"No bull: If a 14x forward multiple is the correct valuation then simple math will tell us that the fair value for the S&P [---] is 3200-3400 at an EPS of $230. This suggests that this bear market is not yet over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1569852670428717060)  2022-09-14T00:56Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Not throwing in the towel: Its surprising how little capitulation there has been in the market. Yes the sentiment surveys are all negative but actual flows have not been. This seems consistent with the lack of volatility in the market (as illustrated by the muted VIX)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1572939269139681280)  2022-09-22T13:22Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Quick update from the road. After the FOMC yesterday fair value for the SPX is has now dropped to 14x fwd EPS. That's [----] which would be another 15% below today's level. And that's assuming the fwd EPS estimate of $235 holds which is a big assumption. /THREAD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1573026944589131776)  2022-09-22T19:10Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"If you wonder why nominal rates are rising so relentlessly even as inflation expectations fall well look at this. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1575499710953320450)  2022-09-29T14:56Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"At a drawdown of 28% the stock market has now priced in 85% of a typical bear market (-33%) and 78% of a recession (-35%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1582068654145155072)  2022-10-17T17:58Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Despite big differences the 1940s continue to provide a compelling analog to today. The fiscal/monetary cocktail in 1942-46 turned into an inflationary hangover in 1946-47 much like is happening today. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1582069419836313600)  2022-10-17T18:01Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Global policy tightening is relentless. Over the past [--] months there have been [---] rate hikes across the globe. For a highly financialized economic system that has grown increasingly dependent on the largesse of central banks financial markets have been pummeled accordingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1584640396462018560)  2022-10-24T20:18Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Not to spoil the fun of last week's rally but: The earnings picture continues to weaken with 75% of companies in the S&P [---] seeing estimate downgrades. Based on the shape of the yield curve this could get worse before it gets better. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1592899441639686144)  2022-11-16T15:16Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"My weekend ritual: crank up the Bach (my fathers ritual growing up) review hundreds of charts and indicators create some new ones put it all together into a narrative and write. Out of this process come all the posts that you see during the week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1632421760506425348)  2023-03-05T16:44Z 210.3K followers, 207.4K engagements


"After a crypto winter Bitcoin is still standing and appears to be having another renaissance. Let's take a closer look at this now-familiar boom-bust pattern.🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1663870268022968321)  2023-05-31T11:29Z 210.3K followers, 310.9K engagements


"Lets put Bitcoins volatility in perspective. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720157956212244697)  2023-11-02T19:16Z 210.3K followers, 603.6K engagements


"Continuing the discussion from my recent threads on Bitcoin let's talk about store of value: 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720451086882877606)  2023-11-03T14:41Z 210.3K followers, 325.1K engagements


"Bitcoin as exponential gold: In the past Ive explored Bitcoin mostly from a demand perspective studying S-curves to generate a demand-driven valuation framework. Today Im presenting my supply-driven approach which is a variation on the stock-to-flow (S2F) concept.🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1760677789865512980)  2024-02-22T14:47Z 210.3K followers, 186.9K engagements


"The current bull market cycle is [--] months old and produced a 53% gain. By historical standards there seems to be life left for this bull given the median [--] months and 90% gains thatve been produced over the past [---] years or so. We might only be in the 5thinning. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1797983135021535354)  2024-06-04T13:25Z 210.3K followers, 137.5K engagements


"If there is one thesis that I have high conviction in for the coming years is that the US is on a path towards fiscal dominance. With the Fed and other central banks no longer the buyer of first and last resort it seems plausible that the term premium might rise in the months and years ahead.🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1854934713015976139)  2024-11-08T17:11Z 210.3K followers, 299K engagements


"Bitcoin appears to be following the playbook of the last two winters-turned-into-summers. Theres an unmistakable rhythm to Bitcoins cycles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1858956409419035041)  2024-11-19T19:32Z 210.3K followers, 226.6K engagements


"When looking at this cycle in terms of its absolute gain of 84% and the relative breadth of only 35% (meaning that only 35% of stocks are outperforming the index) the only analogs seem to be the 1998-2000 tech boom and the 1970-1973 Nifty [--] bull market.Its not good company to be in but those trends persisted for some time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952791719579193479)  2025-08-05T18:00Z 210.3K followers, 136K engagements


"China the Fed FANG stocks what Im watching for the rest of 2017: http://go.fidelity.com/w683 http://go.fidelity.com/w683"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/882963778484219905)  2017-07-06T14:05Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements


"The twilight of this #global easing cycle With the #Fed tightening & #ECB shifting out of #QE real short rates seem to have bottomed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/889863449135771648)  2017-07-25T15:02Z 210.3K followers, [---] engagements


"Up it goes: Despite some headlines and handwringing the 10-year Treasury yield at 3% is exactly where it is supposed to be given the Fed and the state of the economy. In fact it could very well go higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/989160235947438082)  2018-04-25T15:12Z 210.3K followers, [----] engagements

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