[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @levenson_david David Levenson. It's time to reduce risk and beta. David Levenson is not mentioned in the provided tweets. However, the tweets discuss market trends, volatility, and the impact of monetary policies on various assets, including Bitcoin, bonds, and stocks. Key points include decreasing volatility, flattening yield curves, and shifting capital flows from high-risk assets to more stable ones. ### Engagements: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXXXXX +355% - X Months XXXXXXXXX +135% - X Year XXXXXXXXX +84% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/posts_active)  - X Week XXX -XX% - X Month XXX +53% - X Months XXXXX +49% - X Year XXXXX -XX% ### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/followers)  - X Week XXXXXX +0.73% - X Month XXXXXX +8.70% - X Months XXXXXX +35% - X Year XXXXXX +123% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) XXXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) XXXX% [countries](/list/countries) XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies) #3129 [exchanges](/list/exchanges) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [rates](/topic/rates) #511, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) 4.86%, [mortgage rate](/topic/mortgage-rate) #36, [over the](/topic/over-the) 2.78%, [fed](/topic/fed) #1228, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #1140, [ai](/topic/ai) 2.08%, [and it](/topic/and-it) 1.39%, [fell](/topic/fell) 1.39%, [we will](/topic/we-will) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@yieldsearcher](/creator/undefined) [@deerpointmacro](/creator/undefined) [@davevermilion](/creator/undefined) [@dowdedward](/creator/undefined) [@thestalwart](/creator/undefined) [@patrickjnolan](/creator/undefined) [@haydenbaldwin10](/creator/undefined) [@freightalley](/creator/undefined) [@jhoopstyscoop](/creator/undefined) [@alicatvt](/creator/undefined) [@jackfarley96](/creator/undefined) [@compoundingpays](/creator/undefined) [@mostly_agree](/creator/undefined) [@briangobosox](/creator/undefined) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/undefined) [@daviddtawil](/creator/undefined) [@stevehou0](/creator/undefined) [@santiagoaufund](/creator/undefined) [@briantribbitt](/creator/undefined) [@benbrey](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Meme Alliance (MMA)](/topic/$mma) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)](/topic/berkshire-hathaway) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)](/topic/$nee) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "Flattening all around the curve despite the Fed putting on a steepener. Our base case was continuing runoff of mortgages. Choosing to roll that into bills is a an attack on Main Street. Powell doesnt care" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983609430366417014) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-29T18:58Z 17.7K followers, 24.6K engagements "The fed would need to stop this from flattening the fight the five over the XX that is the valve thats gonna one leash in ocean of prepayment and deflation and the fed. Cant do it. They cant cut enough because the ocean of deflation from prepayment speeds is not going to be stopped by continuing to runoff mortgages" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983918836739874821) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T15:28Z 17.7K followers, 2785 engagements "@LawrenceLepard Gold volatility peaked at above XX% and were in the normalization phase. Bitcoin has been melting down its volatility and thats a much more durable price suppression theyre both got a lot lower to go" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983998774516314238) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T20:45Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "When we get the fed running off $XX billion a month of agency paper they dont have any more bandwidth and theyll have to recycle all additional agency paper back into agency paper and they will drive mortgage volatility down and that will drive mortgage rates down and that will accelerate the decline of rates and it will accelerate the rise of low beta and interest rate sensitive stocks which had been used for XX years to fund techand that will be a great deleveraging and a very unappealing construct for the S&P 500" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984059179720409205) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T00:45Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "Are you monitoring gold Vega It fell from XXXX% tail X sigma by more than 30%. Theres gonna be a lot of liquidity entering the gold volatility market from this vol crush. Its gonna take a lot of dollar weakness to trigger a new high and the plumbing of the mortgage market which is like a cicada is now rearing its $ destruction head. The fed will require more accommodation to interfere with the acceleration of home activity but theres only a limit because that will start adjusting the tension between adjustable and fixed rate and with adjustable being a smaller amount of volatility for banks" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984301401690738862) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T16:48Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements "Bonds about to break down" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983199602833502431) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-28T15:50Z 17.7K followers, 4073 engagements "@TheStalwart Not for long. Then not for much longer" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984034321074942154) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T23:06Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "I feel bad for you and the places you get your information because theyre just in my opinion trying to make you somebody elses exit cause this bitcoin is not gonna hold another decimal lower and you could have XX times the position but your brainwashing is so sadly destroying your future in my opinion" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984075214544625706) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T01:49Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "Chinese 10Y is down to 1.745%. Is that consistent with X% GDP" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984241192918286804) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T12:49Z 17.7K followers, 36.5K engagements "@briangobosox This is a Chinese policy choice" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984242105791996094) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T12:52Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "The market is signaling that fixed income participants are wrong and the Bank of England will be lower rates faster then the US" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984260426977440042) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T14:05Z 17.7K followers, 1401 engagements "Virtuous cycle. Vendor financing is now vendor investing" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984262985091600611) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T14:15Z 17.7K followers, 1400 engagements "You could not be more correct. The only amplification is the shear force and unresolvabitility of the duration shortage/grab. On 5/30/84 TYX was XXXXX% On 4/16/86 TYX was XXXX% -680bp in 22M and 17D There was much more inflation to destroy back then and they had a lot of yield and so this is why the risk that you and I are talking about create a challenge that in America we cannot go negative on the policy rate like in Europe or Switzerland or Japan because of our enormous amount of money markets which could grow a XX trillion . So thats why we think long rates can go through one percent and" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984333399406817693) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T18:55Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "British pound RSI below XX thats not good the euro rolling over thats not good. The global fiscal impulse is ending because lower rates will drive down global rates and drive down the global interest expense. That is one of the factors in the Credit expansion" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984335051585438005) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T19:01Z 17.7K followers, 3064 engagements "We will discuss the mechanics of why mortgages will trigger a historic duration event and avoid a Credit event. Set a reminder for my upcoming Space" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984356796744810570) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T20:28Z 17.7K followers, 2274 engagements "@patrickjnolan Sales people will make money in any field. We need insurance. Its the investing that will change" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984425462722867559) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-01T01:01Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "The White House will start screaming about how the Fed is driving up mortgage rates" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983968066305134862) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T18:43Z 17.7K followers, 1997 engagements "$MMA #MMA #MSFTMETAAMZN not strong" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1975198910609338809) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-06T13:58Z 17.7K followers, 1388 engagements "When you have the ultra bond driving utilities up XX% year to date total return and over the last month you have double digits XLU divided by bitcoin and if you volatility adjusted youre over XX% YTD. Its going to be a long crypto winter a very long winter. The Capital is exiting AI and crypto and its rolling down Beta. @GrantCardone @profplum99" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978476348181037542) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T15:01Z 17.6K followers, 3826 engagements "This is telling me Berkshire Hathaway is gonna have a very bad 4Q and 2026" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978479491753058708) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T15:14Z 17.7K followers, 23.8K engagements "The Brazilian Real is targeting new half decade lows. Indonesia rupiah is targeting its all time below including the Asian currency crisis of 1997. Emerging market countries wont be able to reduce policy without importing enormous amounts of disruptive inflation and thats why you would expect a lower demand for energy particularly for construction and the production of concrete in an environment of higher rates" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980662607385358717) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-21T15:48Z 17.7K followers, 2348 engagements "2/10 XXXX 5/30 XXXX 5/10 XXXX 10/30 XX @deerpointmacro @DavidDTawil @davevermilion" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980810426544771214) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-22T01:36Z 17.7K followers, 1892 engagements "Refi +81% purchase +20% Y/Y with ARM origination up XX% to XX% share. This is based of mortgage rate of XXXX. Rates have melted and the full week ending Nov X 2025 should be more than XXX% year over refi. This will get headlines" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980966477248238063) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-22T11:56Z 17.7K followers, 3746 engagements "Lower rates are lifting the $. This is a signal about credit growth contraction Its capital back flow" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980968186175533368) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-22T12:03Z 17.7K followers, 2408 engagements "The US XX year is pulling down the global curve to a flatter state and now the UK has broken down and despite whatever they may say at their next policy meeting the market is saying that theyre getting closer to inversion with a X% policy rate and only XXXX basis points of curve steepness. The gilt is a small market with a real currency The next to fall is the German XX year which will then allow the US XX year to target its pre-rate easing cycle lows of 3.6%and flatten the US curve and trap three years of treasury bears above a XXX yield. @deerpointmacro @DavidDTawil @davevermilion" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980971168455647565) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-22T12:15Z 17.7K followers, 2789 engagements "Whether its monetary backflow or a monetary siphoning capital is exiting FAANG and GORE returning to BUSH; Bonds Utilities Staples Healthcare GORE Gold ORCL RBOB ETH @davevermilion @deerpointmacro @hendry_hugh" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1981016262663967104) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-22T15:14Z 17.7K followers, 3298 engagements "If 2/10 steepen the curve will destabilize regional banks. I dont see any possibility of 2Y trending higher in yield with the signaling of the wind down in QT by Dec XX 2025 or March XX 2026. JPM is calling for QT wind down mid quarter unlike the prior X QT reduction on SEP update day. I dont see a bearish drift in rates while lagged owners equivalent rent is sliding and the majority of some price adjustment according @WarrenPies as I think I read. Free Cash flow on SP500 is sliding and reducing FCF/CAPEX to very dangerous levels. A steeper curve forces all mandatory sales from death divorce" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1982439156937531422) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-26T13:28Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "Your chart I believe there is an excellent one but I see the convergence of those two lines as implied volatility goes down and the funding cost goes down as rates return to zero and we have a decelerating period of consumption globally and resource utilization deteriorates and then we will return to a period where those lines diverge again But for now were gonna have a period of the US having a greater share of economic activity for a number of years. US treasury collateral based credit formation is the limiting factor as our deficits implode through populism globally and in the US and" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1982442936584257986) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-26T13:43Z 17.6K followers, XXX engagements "How much is the equity market rising faster than the bond market over the last month Thats the question you have to ask yourself and what are the probability that the Fed would have just decided to weaken the dollar so aggressively with the pricing in of more than four cuts and the end of QT in contrast to zero activity until the market fell XX% for the NASDAQ so our job is to respond to what policy makers do and when the policymaker say short volatility because theyre driving it up you make your money shorting volatility when they let volatility bubbles deflate then you go into your gamma" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1982838700716249305) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-27T15:56Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements "The market is about to take out the rate cut inversion low" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1982862936646496391) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-27T17:32Z 17.7K followers, 3597 engagements "NextEra overtaking a multi year high just happens to be the largest company in XLU. NEE is siphoning back the capital that had flowed to XLC XLK XLY. UNH similarly is going LLY in rising and lifting XLV which wants its capital inflows back after 3OY. The rise of US bond prices is lowering the discount rate on these low volatility equity sectors. They will continue to perform or catch up and accelerate versus technology and communications particularly as the bond price starts dragging up the dollar and driving more Capital from exporters to importers This is the great unwind" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983123059406999803) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-28T10:45Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "10Y UK gilt is down to 39bp above the policy rate. Easing more than current guidance is a virtual certainty. Bye bye pound" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983162846499537241) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-28T13:24Z 17.7K followers, 1500 engagements "Robin do you notice any similarity between the price of oil and the relationship in the NOKI STOKI. The primary difference in these two countries is oil thats why youre saying the bid in Sweden. Its to get out of the Norwegian currency. Your explanation is a historical. Lets call it novel" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983357794821779801) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-29T02:18Z 17.6K followers, XXX engagements "Dont fade the dollar" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983532240727323040) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-29T13:51Z 17.6K followers, 2611 engagements "@Think__Primal @grok Nvidia needed some capital to cross over X trillion and it was sourcing those funds intrasector" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983568672988799098) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-29T16:16Z 17.6K followers, XXX engagements "The death of the AI bubble is found in dollar strength" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983616572334993521) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-29T19:26Z 17.7K followers, 2254 engagements "@BTC_Archive How about his melting company" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983721831698985189) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T02:25Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "@severesarcasm @BTC_Archive Check the performance of MSTR March XX 2000 to April XX 2000 -XXXX% On X examine my highlights. 4/8/25 at around 4AM I covered a BTC short believe 76K" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983832521415463060) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T09:45Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "ZROZ XX cents from a golden cross The dollar is 1/2 cent from 200DMA" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983914613428162709) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T15:11Z 17.7K followers, 1386 engagements "@BitcoinPierre The fight the X over the XX is a garrote on Nvidia and Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983918352444653605) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T15:26Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "@DowdEdward Shortages bring gluts whether its crude oil or potato chips or semiconductor chips We have a shortage of prepayments in mortgages and thats gonna bring a glut and thats going to flood the bids in bonds" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983919102004523019) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T15:29Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "When Powell spoofs the market by signaling through his mouthpieces that he is going to NQT and psycho Powell decides that hes gonna end the balance sheet reduction but that he continues to wanna roll off mortgage back securities because Beth hammock from Goldman Sachs told him it was a good idea and she in my opinion is not qualified to deal with anything longer than one piece of paper. Nevertheless all he can do is run that up to XX billion a month and then rates are gonna collapse and its gonna be all over these sick peoples faces so when Bill gross who told your rates are going to X% oh" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984028352454291499) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T22:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "@PopeMule @deerpointmacro Its wonderful for Main Street. We are going to get massive curve flattening were gonna get a collapse of mortgage rates and its gonna make the ecosystem of Main Street and housing and diners. The best its ever been. I cannot say as much for oligarchs" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983664676857897229) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-29T22:38Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements "Bitcoin volatility is dying There are increasing mechanisms to short volatility in Bitcoin directly or indirectly Bitcoin will need the volatility to stop going down before Bitcoin can stop going down and under performing the NASDAQ . Bitcoin wont stay above 2022 low before you could try to find an investable low. There will be many tradable opportunities but the terminal low as well below " [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983997778310394251) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T20:41Z 17.7K followers, 1366 engagements "@DavidBCollum I agree with path independence. My comment only meant that an episode could happen that could cause a premature rapid decline and take perspective returns much lower much quicker" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984058866427105332) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T00:44Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "My bottom line is we agree on the destination and I would love to unpack the mortgage volatility engine mechanics that ensure that the results that you and I think must happen will happen and policy cannot interfere beyond limited short term tweaks because of the populous structure that you see clearly wont be reversed by any political realignment because it just means more local jobs and less deficit and more government control of our economy because were not dependent on foreign countries to give us so much of our supply chain" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984333797262024788) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T18:56Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "Low volatility which is declining to record low volatility in bitcoin is preventing it from accelerating versus other assets and now its decelerating and you have to go back to June XX of this year to get a lower clothes and when it takes out 100000 youve trapped a lot of people and youve got a lot of people who are shorting volatility @TuttleCapital created BITK Take a look at that. It allows you to get some bitcoin with less Delta and lower risk in a sell off. Naturally you dont get all the upside and arise but people tend to be risk-averse and those who are dipping their toe in the crypto" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983954099780346143) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T17:48Z 17.7K followers, 1451 engagements "@StarshipGangsta @SantiagoAuFund @grok Interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984020169774264333) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T22:10Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements "Can I ask you something Weve surrendered as of December one $XXX billion of quantitative tightening annually We have reduced by the policy rate by XXX basis points The positive carry from X 7/8 and very likely X 5/8 or lower by January XX 2026 when you buy mortgages is so incredibly compelling. How are we not gonna see accelerating prepayment speeds and their mechanical flattening of the curve" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984269932800913531) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T14:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "The most import chart in the world. Powell adopted our view that in order to maintain stability they had to stick it to Main Street. They had to stop refinancing. They had to keep mortgage rates elevated and this chart is tethered directly to the speed speed" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983916290130543055) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T15:17Z 17.7K followers, 5138 engagements "Long-term rates are going much lower the only way ultimately to stop rates from going lower is a rate hikes and massive accelerating government spending and neither one of those are offered right now Powell can say Im not gonna run off mortgages and the hedging that people were starting to do would drive the rates lower Powell on the other hand signal hes not going to recycle rolling off mortgages thats up to XXX billion of mortgages a year and that hurts Main Street and that keeps mortgage rates up and that reduces the need to hedge but only temporarily because volatility is coming in on a" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983939761292144689) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T16:51Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "Less than XX dollars from a XX week low weekly close despite a rate cut. The system has more liquidity than ever before because of the Covid accesses and its gonna smother volatility more than its gonna drive up. Gamma and MicroStrategy has a history that people should know" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983954607656050761) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T17:50Z 17.7K followers, 2010 engagements "META XXX what is that telling you" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983989342402974196) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T20:08Z 17.7K followers, 25.1K engagements "@yieldsearcher What is Bitcoin volatility telling you and what is Bitcoin volatility doing" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984045300311585003) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T23:50Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "Your description of Chinas mercantilism has no daylight with reality. The US political system created Trumps need to delay a more aggressive tariff structure to ensure the decline of inflation and mortgage rates sufficiently before the election because of the hostility towards him and I did not vote for him but this is clearly the case or XX% of all media is anti-Trump so instead of rooting for America and long-term structural balance that reality has forced him to throttle back on the intensity of the tariffs which will delay by a slide amount the further implosion of the US deficit and the" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984304117792284688) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T16:59Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "@JackFarley96 Low coupon inertia is a myth. It will leave people unhedge and raving to grab duration after its too expensive. When home prices accelerate higher with lower mortgage rates then a X% savings on a 500K house wont stop a buyer as houses resume the bidding wars" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984481341505778099) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-01T04:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "@davevermilion Are those victims of devastating economic conditions or poorly operated and previously hyped companies. Over a X to X year period with dollar strength. XX to XX% of those companies will outperform #MMA MSFT META AMZN IMO" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984639741623439625) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-01T15:12Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements "Man and woman plan and the system laughs. Open AI got almost the greatest assist of all time from COVID-19 Joe Biden and Jerome Powell and the last of those three is leaving the stage in six months. Just watch how the rise and the acceleration higher of the US dollar starts to puncture the aura of invincibility of Sam Altman I" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984691638904766580) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-01T18:38Z 17.7K followers, 2102 engagements "@_rob_anderson @NDR_Research The NDX XXXXXX 10/08/02 The NDX 1018.86 12/21/02 The NDX bull market started in 2002" [X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984781297575756245) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T00:35Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@levenson_david David Levenson. It's time to reduce risk and beta.David Levenson is not mentioned in the provided tweets. However, the tweets discuss market trends, volatility, and the impact of monetary policies on various assets, including Bitcoin, bonds, and stocks. Key points include decreasing volatility, flattening yield curves, and shifting capital flows from high-risk assets to more stable ones.
Social category influence finance XXXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% stocks XXXX% technology brands XXXX% countries XXXX% currencies #3129 exchanges XXXX%
Social topic influence rates #511, bitcoin 4.86%, mortgage rate #36, over the 2.78%, fed #1228, inflation #1140, ai 2.08%, and it 1.39%, fell 1.39%, we will XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @yieldsearcher @deerpointmacro @davevermilion @dowdedward @thestalwart @patrickjnolan @haydenbaldwin10 @freightalley @jhoopstyscoop @alicatvt @jackfarley96 @compoundingpays @mostly_agree @briangobosox @onechancefreedm @daviddtawil @stevehou0 @santiagoaufund @briantribbitt @benbrey
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Meme Alliance (MMA) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) NextEra Energy Inc (NEE) Goldman Sachs (GS)
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"Flattening all around the curve despite the Fed putting on a steepener. Our base case was continuing runoff of mortgages. Choosing to roll that into bills is a an attack on Main Street. Powell doesnt care"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-29T18:58Z 17.7K followers, 24.6K engagements
"The fed would need to stop this from flattening the fight the five over the XX that is the valve thats gonna one leash in ocean of prepayment and deflation and the fed. Cant do it. They cant cut enough because the ocean of deflation from prepayment speeds is not going to be stopped by continuing to runoff mortgages"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T15:28Z 17.7K followers, 2785 engagements
"@LawrenceLepard Gold volatility peaked at above XX% and were in the normalization phase. Bitcoin has been melting down its volatility and thats a much more durable price suppression theyre both got a lot lower to go"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T20:45Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"When we get the fed running off $XX billion a month of agency paper they dont have any more bandwidth and theyll have to recycle all additional agency paper back into agency paper and they will drive mortgage volatility down and that will drive mortgage rates down and that will accelerate the decline of rates and it will accelerate the rise of low beta and interest rate sensitive stocks which had been used for XX years to fund techand that will be a great deleveraging and a very unappealing construct for the S&P 500"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T00:45Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"Are you monitoring gold Vega It fell from XXXX% tail X sigma by more than 30%. Theres gonna be a lot of liquidity entering the gold volatility market from this vol crush. Its gonna take a lot of dollar weakness to trigger a new high and the plumbing of the mortgage market which is like a cicada is now rearing its $ destruction head. The fed will require more accommodation to interfere with the acceleration of home activity but theres only a limit because that will start adjusting the tension between adjustable and fixed rate and with adjustable being a smaller amount of volatility for banks"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T16:48Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements
"Bonds about to break down"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-28T15:50Z 17.7K followers, 4073 engagements
"@TheStalwart Not for long. Then not for much longer"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T23:06Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"I feel bad for you and the places you get your information because theyre just in my opinion trying to make you somebody elses exit cause this bitcoin is not gonna hold another decimal lower and you could have XX times the position but your brainwashing is so sadly destroying your future in my opinion"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T01:49Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"Chinese 10Y is down to 1.745%. Is that consistent with X% GDP"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T12:49Z 17.7K followers, 36.5K engagements
"@briangobosox This is a Chinese policy choice"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T12:52Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"The market is signaling that fixed income participants are wrong and the Bank of England will be lower rates faster then the US"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T14:05Z 17.7K followers, 1401 engagements
"Virtuous cycle. Vendor financing is now vendor investing"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T14:15Z 17.7K followers, 1400 engagements
"You could not be more correct. The only amplification is the shear force and unresolvabitility of the duration shortage/grab. On 5/30/84 TYX was XXXXX% On 4/16/86 TYX was XXXX% -680bp in 22M and 17D There was much more inflation to destroy back then and they had a lot of yield and so this is why the risk that you and I are talking about create a challenge that in America we cannot go negative on the policy rate like in Europe or Switzerland or Japan because of our enormous amount of money markets which could grow a XX trillion . So thats why we think long rates can go through one percent and"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T18:55Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"British pound RSI below XX thats not good the euro rolling over thats not good. The global fiscal impulse is ending because lower rates will drive down global rates and drive down the global interest expense. That is one of the factors in the Credit expansion"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T19:01Z 17.7K followers, 3064 engagements
"We will discuss the mechanics of why mortgages will trigger a historic duration event and avoid a Credit event. Set a reminder for my upcoming Space"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T20:28Z 17.7K followers, 2274 engagements
"@patrickjnolan Sales people will make money in any field. We need insurance. Its the investing that will change"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-11-01T01:01Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"The White House will start screaming about how the Fed is driving up mortgage rates"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T18:43Z 17.7K followers, 1997 engagements
"$MMA #MMA #MSFTMETAAMZN not strong"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-06T13:58Z 17.7K followers, 1388 engagements
"When you have the ultra bond driving utilities up XX% year to date total return and over the last month you have double digits XLU divided by bitcoin and if you volatility adjusted youre over XX% YTD. Its going to be a long crypto winter a very long winter. The Capital is exiting AI and crypto and its rolling down Beta. @GrantCardone @profplum99"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T15:01Z 17.6K followers, 3826 engagements
"This is telling me Berkshire Hathaway is gonna have a very bad 4Q and 2026"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T15:14Z 17.7K followers, 23.8K engagements
"The Brazilian Real is targeting new half decade lows. Indonesia rupiah is targeting its all time below including the Asian currency crisis of 1997. Emerging market countries wont be able to reduce policy without importing enormous amounts of disruptive inflation and thats why you would expect a lower demand for energy particularly for construction and the production of concrete in an environment of higher rates"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-21T15:48Z 17.7K followers, 2348 engagements
"2/10 XXXX 5/30 XXXX 5/10 XXXX 10/30 XX @deerpointmacro @DavidDTawil @davevermilion"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-22T01:36Z 17.7K followers, 1892 engagements
"Refi +81% purchase +20% Y/Y with ARM origination up XX% to XX% share. This is based of mortgage rate of XXXX. Rates have melted and the full week ending Nov X 2025 should be more than XXX% year over refi. This will get headlines"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-22T11:56Z 17.7K followers, 3746 engagements
"Lower rates are lifting the $. This is a signal about credit growth contraction Its capital back flow"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-22T12:03Z 17.7K followers, 2408 engagements
"The US XX year is pulling down the global curve to a flatter state and now the UK has broken down and despite whatever they may say at their next policy meeting the market is saying that theyre getting closer to inversion with a X% policy rate and only XXXX basis points of curve steepness. The gilt is a small market with a real currency The next to fall is the German XX year which will then allow the US XX year to target its pre-rate easing cycle lows of 3.6%and flatten the US curve and trap three years of treasury bears above a XXX yield. @deerpointmacro @DavidDTawil @davevermilion"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-22T12:15Z 17.7K followers, 2789 engagements
"Whether its monetary backflow or a monetary siphoning capital is exiting FAANG and GORE returning to BUSH; Bonds Utilities Staples Healthcare GORE Gold ORCL RBOB ETH @davevermilion @deerpointmacro @hendry_hugh"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-22T15:14Z 17.7K followers, 3298 engagements
"If 2/10 steepen the curve will destabilize regional banks. I dont see any possibility of 2Y trending higher in yield with the signaling of the wind down in QT by Dec XX 2025 or March XX 2026. JPM is calling for QT wind down mid quarter unlike the prior X QT reduction on SEP update day. I dont see a bearish drift in rates while lagged owners equivalent rent is sliding and the majority of some price adjustment according @WarrenPies as I think I read. Free Cash flow on SP500 is sliding and reducing FCF/CAPEX to very dangerous levels. A steeper curve forces all mandatory sales from death divorce"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-26T13:28Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"Your chart I believe there is an excellent one but I see the convergence of those two lines as implied volatility goes down and the funding cost goes down as rates return to zero and we have a decelerating period of consumption globally and resource utilization deteriorates and then we will return to a period where those lines diverge again But for now were gonna have a period of the US having a greater share of economic activity for a number of years. US treasury collateral based credit formation is the limiting factor as our deficits implode through populism globally and in the US and"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-26T13:43Z 17.6K followers, XXX engagements
"How much is the equity market rising faster than the bond market over the last month Thats the question you have to ask yourself and what are the probability that the Fed would have just decided to weaken the dollar so aggressively with the pricing in of more than four cuts and the end of QT in contrast to zero activity until the market fell XX% for the NASDAQ so our job is to respond to what policy makers do and when the policymaker say short volatility because theyre driving it up you make your money shorting volatility when they let volatility bubbles deflate then you go into your gamma"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-27T15:56Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements
"The market is about to take out the rate cut inversion low"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-27T17:32Z 17.7K followers, 3597 engagements
"NextEra overtaking a multi year high just happens to be the largest company in XLU. NEE is siphoning back the capital that had flowed to XLC XLK XLY. UNH similarly is going LLY in rising and lifting XLV which wants its capital inflows back after 3OY. The rise of US bond prices is lowering the discount rate on these low volatility equity sectors. They will continue to perform or catch up and accelerate versus technology and communications particularly as the bond price starts dragging up the dollar and driving more Capital from exporters to importers This is the great unwind"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-28T10:45Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"10Y UK gilt is down to 39bp above the policy rate. Easing more than current guidance is a virtual certainty. Bye bye pound"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-28T13:24Z 17.7K followers, 1500 engagements
"Robin do you notice any similarity between the price of oil and the relationship in the NOKI STOKI. The primary difference in these two countries is oil thats why youre saying the bid in Sweden. Its to get out of the Norwegian currency. Your explanation is a historical. Lets call it novel"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-29T02:18Z 17.6K followers, XXX engagements
"Dont fade the dollar"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-29T13:51Z 17.6K followers, 2611 engagements
"@Think__Primal @grok Nvidia needed some capital to cross over X trillion and it was sourcing those funds intrasector"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-29T16:16Z 17.6K followers, XXX engagements
"The death of the AI bubble is found in dollar strength"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-29T19:26Z 17.7K followers, 2254 engagements
"@BTC_Archive How about his melting company"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T02:25Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"@severesarcasm @BTC_Archive Check the performance of MSTR March XX 2000 to April XX 2000 -XXXX% On X examine my highlights. 4/8/25 at around 4AM I covered a BTC short believe 76K"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T09:45Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"ZROZ XX cents from a golden cross The dollar is 1/2 cent from 200DMA"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T15:11Z 17.7K followers, 1386 engagements
"@BitcoinPierre The fight the X over the XX is a garrote on Nvidia and Bitcoin"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T15:26Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"@DowdEdward Shortages bring gluts whether its crude oil or potato chips or semiconductor chips We have a shortage of prepayments in mortgages and thats gonna bring a glut and thats going to flood the bids in bonds"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T15:29Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"When Powell spoofs the market by signaling through his mouthpieces that he is going to NQT and psycho Powell decides that hes gonna end the balance sheet reduction but that he continues to wanna roll off mortgage back securities because Beth hammock from Goldman Sachs told him it was a good idea and she in my opinion is not qualified to deal with anything longer than one piece of paper. Nevertheless all he can do is run that up to XX billion a month and then rates are gonna collapse and its gonna be all over these sick peoples faces so when Bill gross who told your rates are going to X% oh"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T22:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"@PopeMule @deerpointmacro Its wonderful for Main Street. We are going to get massive curve flattening were gonna get a collapse of mortgage rates and its gonna make the ecosystem of Main Street and housing and diners. The best its ever been. I cannot say as much for oligarchs"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-29T22:38Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements
"Bitcoin volatility is dying There are increasing mechanisms to short volatility in Bitcoin directly or indirectly Bitcoin will need the volatility to stop going down before Bitcoin can stop going down and under performing the NASDAQ . Bitcoin wont stay above 2022 low before you could try to find an investable low. There will be many tradable opportunities but the terminal low as well below "
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T20:41Z 17.7K followers, 1366 engagements
"@DavidBCollum I agree with path independence. My comment only meant that an episode could happen that could cause a premature rapid decline and take perspective returns much lower much quicker"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T00:44Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"My bottom line is we agree on the destination and I would love to unpack the mortgage volatility engine mechanics that ensure that the results that you and I think must happen will happen and policy cannot interfere beyond limited short term tweaks because of the populous structure that you see clearly wont be reversed by any political realignment because it just means more local jobs and less deficit and more government control of our economy because were not dependent on foreign countries to give us so much of our supply chain"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T18:56Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"Low volatility which is declining to record low volatility in bitcoin is preventing it from accelerating versus other assets and now its decelerating and you have to go back to June XX of this year to get a lower clothes and when it takes out 100000 youve trapped a lot of people and youve got a lot of people who are shorting volatility @TuttleCapital created BITK Take a look at that. It allows you to get some bitcoin with less Delta and lower risk in a sell off. Naturally you dont get all the upside and arise but people tend to be risk-averse and those who are dipping their toe in the crypto"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T17:48Z 17.7K followers, 1451 engagements
"@StarshipGangsta @SantiagoAuFund @grok Interesting"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T22:10Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements
"Can I ask you something Weve surrendered as of December one $XXX billion of quantitative tightening annually We have reduced by the policy rate by XXX basis points The positive carry from X 7/8 and very likely X 5/8 or lower by January XX 2026 when you buy mortgages is so incredibly compelling. How are we not gonna see accelerating prepayment speeds and their mechanical flattening of the curve"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T14:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"The most import chart in the world. Powell adopted our view that in order to maintain stability they had to stick it to Main Street. They had to stop refinancing. They had to keep mortgage rates elevated and this chart is tethered directly to the speed speed"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T15:17Z 17.7K followers, 5138 engagements
"Long-term rates are going much lower the only way ultimately to stop rates from going lower is a rate hikes and massive accelerating government spending and neither one of those are offered right now Powell can say Im not gonna run off mortgages and the hedging that people were starting to do would drive the rates lower Powell on the other hand signal hes not going to recycle rolling off mortgages thats up to XXX billion of mortgages a year and that hurts Main Street and that keeps mortgage rates up and that reduces the need to hedge but only temporarily because volatility is coming in on a"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T16:51Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"Less than XX dollars from a XX week low weekly close despite a rate cut. The system has more liquidity than ever before because of the Covid accesses and its gonna smother volatility more than its gonna drive up. Gamma and MicroStrategy has a history that people should know"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T17:50Z 17.7K followers, 2010 engagements
"META XXX what is that telling you"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T20:08Z 17.7K followers, 25.1K engagements
"@yieldsearcher What is Bitcoin volatility telling you and what is Bitcoin volatility doing"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-30T23:50Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"Your description of Chinas mercantilism has no daylight with reality. The US political system created Trumps need to delay a more aggressive tariff structure to ensure the decline of inflation and mortgage rates sufficiently before the election because of the hostility towards him and I did not vote for him but this is clearly the case or XX% of all media is anti-Trump so instead of rooting for America and long-term structural balance that reality has forced him to throttle back on the intensity of the tariffs which will delay by a slide amount the further implosion of the US deficit and the"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-31T16:59Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"@JackFarley96 Low coupon inertia is a myth. It will leave people unhedge and raving to grab duration after its too expensive. When home prices accelerate higher with lower mortgage rates then a X% savings on a 500K house wont stop a buyer as houses resume the bidding wars"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-11-01T04:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"@davevermilion Are those victims of devastating economic conditions or poorly operated and previously hyped companies. Over a X to X year period with dollar strength. XX to XX% of those companies will outperform #MMA MSFT META AMZN IMO"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-11-01T15:12Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
"Man and woman plan and the system laughs. Open AI got almost the greatest assist of all time from COVID-19 Joe Biden and Jerome Powell and the last of those three is leaving the stage in six months. Just watch how the rise and the acceleration higher of the US dollar starts to puncture the aura of invincibility of Sam Altman I"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-11-01T18:38Z 17.7K followers, 2102 engagements
"@_rob_anderson @NDR_Research The NDX XXXXXX 10/08/02 The NDX 1018.86 12/21/02 The NDX bull market started in 2002"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-11-02T00:35Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements
/creator/x::levenson_david