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[@levenson_david](/creator/twitter/levenson_david)
"The most import chart in the world. Powell adopted our view that in order to maintain stability they had to stick it to Main Street. They had to stop refinancing. They had to keep mortgage rates elevated and this chart is tethered directly to the speed speed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983916290130543055) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T15:17Z 17.7K followers, 5213 engagements


"Buffet is gonna be losing a lot of net income due to repo issues which are gonna force the bed to ease policy more than the market expects and that means hes gonna be losing XXX billion more income than the market currently thinks when the Fed cuts XXX basis bites more than the market currently thinks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984846813585674360) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T04:55Z 17.7K followers, 6733 engagements


"Rising bond yields following an easing is the soothing of the OAS stress. Interest only mortgage assets hedge during periods of rising OAS. Sustained current flattening causes sustained OAS elevation causes the perpetual bid and duration until such time as the feds rolloff overtakes to XX billion threshold per month and mortgage spreads tighten another hundred basis points and then theres no way to supply the shortage. The system is experiencing which will be greater than any other episode since the development of the pre-payable mortgage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984997514118893903) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T14:54Z 17.7K followers, 1250 engagements


"A slight correction where policy tools have a net constructive effect. Its that whatever affect its having is being overwhelmed by the pushback of the system and this will create the greatest rise of home prices and the collapse of interest rate structure and the period of greatest American happiness it will end wars as dollar strength crushes oil and shut down the war Russia the tensions out of Iran"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985019801559802270) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T16:22Z 17.7K followers, 1299 engagements


"Whether its monetary backflow or a monetary siphoning capital is exiting FAANG and GORE returning to BUSH; Bonds Utilities Staples Healthcare GORE Gold ORCL RBOB ETH @davevermilion @deerpointmacro @hendry_hugh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1981016262663967104) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-22T15:14Z 17.7K followers, 3300 engagements


"They printed so much money during Covid. There is so much liquidity in the system and that money is looking for profit whether its yield whether its shorting volatility or whether its both Liquidity will drive interest rates down it will drive volatility down and will destroy the duration of mortgages which currently are behaving like an X year instruments and that will go down to 4y instruments creating a $X trillion Hole in the asset side of the systems balance sheet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1981575456227758510) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-24T04:16Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"ZROZ XX cents from a golden cross The dollar is 1/2 cent from 200DMA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983914613428162709) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T15:11Z 17.7K followers, 1395 engagements


"The fed would need to stop this from flattening the fight the five over the XX that is the valve thats gonna one leash in ocean of prepayment and deflation and the fed. Cant do it. They cant cut enough because the ocean of deflation from prepayment speeds is not going to be stopped by continuing to runoff mortgages"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983918836739874821) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T15:28Z 17.7K followers, 2791 engagements


"Low volatility which is declining to record low volatility in bitcoin is preventing it from accelerating versus other assets and now its decelerating and you have to go back to June XX of this year to get a lower clothes and when it takes out 100000 youve trapped a lot of people and youve got a lot of people who are shorting volatility @TuttleCapital created BITK Take a look at that. It allows you to get some bitcoin with less Delta and lower risk in a sell off. Naturally you dont get all the upside and arise but people tend to be risk-averse and those who are dipping their toe in the crypto"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983954099780346143) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T17:48Z 17.7K followers, 1451 engagements


"The White House will start screaming about how the Fed is driving up mortgage rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983968066305134862) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T18:43Z 17.7K followers, 1997 engagements


"Bitcoin volatility is dying There are increasing mechanisms to short volatility in Bitcoin directly or indirectly Bitcoin will need the volatility to stop going down before Bitcoin can stop going down and under performing the NASDAQ . Bitcoin wont stay above 2022 low before you could try to find an investable low. There will be many tradable opportunities but the terminal low as well below "  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983997778310394251) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T20:41Z 17.7K followers, 1366 engagements


"@LawrenceLepard Gold volatility peaked at above XX% and were in the normalization phase. Bitcoin has been melting down its volatility and thats a much more durable price suppression theyre both got a lot lower to go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983998774516314238) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T20:45Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"When Powell spoofs the market by signaling through his mouthpieces that he is going to NQT and psycho Powell decides that hes gonna end the balance sheet reduction but that he continues to wanna roll off mortgage back securities because Beth hammock from Goldman Sachs told him it was a good idea and she in my opinion is not qualified to deal with anything longer than one piece of paper. Nevertheless all he can do is run that up to XX billion a month and then rates are gonna collapse and its gonna be all over these sick peoples faces so when Bill gross who told your rates are going to X% oh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984028352454291499) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T22:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@TheStalwart Not for long. Then not for much longer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984034321074942154) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T23:06Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@yieldsearcher What is Bitcoin volatility telling you and what is Bitcoin volatility doing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984045300311585003) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T23:50Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@DavidBCollum I agree with path independence. My comment only meant that an episode could happen that could cause a premature rapid decline and take perspective returns much lower much quicker"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984058866427105332) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T00:44Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"When we get the fed running off $XX billion a month of agency paper they dont have any more bandwidth and theyll have to recycle all additional agency paper back into agency paper and they will drive mortgage volatility down and that will drive mortgage rates down and that will accelerate the decline of rates and it will accelerate the rise of low beta and interest rate sensitive stocks which had been used for XX years to fund techand that will be a great deleveraging and a very unappealing construct for the S&P 500"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984059179720409205) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T00:45Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"I feel bad for you and the places you get your information because theyre just in my opinion trying to make you somebody elses exit cause this bitcoin is not gonna hold another decimal lower and you could have XX times the position but your brainwashing is so sadly destroying your future in my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984075214544625706) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T01:49Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@briangobosox This is a Chinese policy choice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984242105791996094) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T12:52Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Are you monitoring gold Vega It fell from XXXX% tail X sigma by more than 30%. Theres gonna be a lot of liquidity entering the gold volatility market from this vol crush. Its gonna take a lot of dollar weakness to trigger a new high and the plumbing of the mortgage market which is like a cicada is now rearing its $ destruction head. The fed will require more accommodation to interfere with the acceleration of home activity but theres only a limit because that will start adjusting the tension between adjustable and fixed rate and with adjustable being a smaller amount of volatility for banks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984301401690738862) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T16:48Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements


"@patrickjnolan Sales people will make money in any field. We need insurance. Its the investing that will change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984425462722867559) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-01T01:01Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Chinese 10Y is down to 1.745%. Is that consistent with X% GDP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984241192918286804) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T12:49Z 17.7K followers, 37.2K engagements


"How often does the dollar dominate bitcoin over X months A lot more frequently for the next few years I suspect. Dollar RSI is strengthening Dollar volatility and put skew are weakening"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985357389554753771) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T14:44Z 17.7K followers, 1289 engagements


"The US XX year is pulling down the global curve to a flatter state and now the UK has broken down and despite whatever they may say at their next policy meeting the market is saying that theyre getting closer to inversion with a X% policy rate and only XXXX basis points of curve steepness. The gilt is a small market with a real currency The next to fall is the German XX year which will then allow the US XX year to target its pre-rate easing cycle lows of 3.6%and flatten the US curve and trap three years of treasury bears above a XXX yield. @deerpointmacro @DavidDTawil @davevermilion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980971168455647565) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-22T12:15Z 17.7K followers, 2798 engagements


"Your chart I believe there is an excellent one but I see the convergence of those two lines as implied volatility goes down and the funding cost goes down as rates return to zero and we have a decelerating period of consumption globally and resource utilization deteriorates and then we will return to a period where those lines diverge again But for now were gonna have a period of the US having a greater share of economic activity for a number of years. US treasury collateral based credit formation is the limiting factor as our deficits implode through populism globally and in the US and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1982442936584257986) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-26T13:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"How much is the equity market rising faster than the bond market over the last month Thats the question you have to ask yourself and what are the probability that the Fed would have just decided to weaken the dollar so aggressively with the pricing in of more than four cuts and the end of QT in contrast to zero activity until the market fell XX% for the NASDAQ so our job is to respond to what policy makers do and when the policymaker say short volatility because theyre driving it up you make your money shorting volatility when they let volatility bubbles deflate then you go into your gamma"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1982838700716249305) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-27T15:56Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements


"10Y UK gilt is down to 39bp above the policy rate. Easing more than current guidance is a virtual certainty. Bye bye pound"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983162846499537241) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-28T13:24Z 17.7K followers, 1516 engagements


"@AliCatVT My catalyst was gold implied volatility rising above its XXXX% of all historic volatility levels on October XX 2025. XXXX is X sigma. I dont look to the words of a politician I respect the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983355439271272451) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-29T02:09Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Flattening all around the curve despite the Fed putting on a steepener. Our base case was continuing runoff of mortgages. Choosing to roll that into bills is a an attack on Main Street. Powell doesnt care"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983609430366417014) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-29T18:58Z 17.7K followers, 24.7K engagements


"@PopeMule @deerpointmacro Its wonderful for Main Street. We are going to get massive curve flattening were gonna get a collapse of mortgage rates and its gonna make the ecosystem of Main Street and housing and diners. The best its ever been. I cannot say as much for oligarchs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983664676857897229) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-29T22:38Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements


"Long-term rates are going much lower the only way ultimately to stop rates from going lower is a rate hikes and massive accelerating government spending and neither one of those are offered right now Powell can say Im not gonna run off mortgages and the hedging that people were starting to do would drive the rates lower Powell on the other hand signal hes not going to recycle rolling off mortgages thats up to XXX billion of mortgages a year and that hurts Main Street and that keeps mortgage rates up and that reduces the need to hedge but only temporarily because volatility is coming in on a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983939761292144689) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T16:51Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"META XXX what is that telling you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983989342402974196) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T20:08Z 17.7K followers, 25.2K engagements


"Can I ask you something Weve surrendered as of December one $XXX billion of quantitative tightening annually We have reduced by the policy rate by XXX basis points The positive carry from X 7/8 and very likely X 5/8 or lower by January XX 2026 when you buy mortgages is so incredibly compelling. How are we not gonna see accelerating prepayment speeds and their mechanical flattening of the curve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984269932800913531) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T14:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"You could not be more correct. The only amplification is the shear force and unresolvabitility of the duration shortage/grab. On 5/30/84 TYX was XXXXX% On 4/16/86 TYX was XXXX% -680bp in 22M and 17D There was much more inflation to destroy back then and they had a lot of yield and so this is why the risk that you and I are talking about create a challenge that in America we cannot go negative on the policy rate like in Europe or Switzerland or Japan because of our enormous amount of money markets which could grow a XX trillion . So thats why we think long rates can go through one percent and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984333399406817693) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T18:55Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"My bottom line is we agree on the destination and I would love to unpack the mortgage volatility engine mechanics that ensure that the results that you and I think must happen will happen and policy cannot interfere beyond limited short term tweaks because of the populous structure that you see clearly wont be reversed by any political realignment because it just means more local jobs and less deficit and more government control of our economy because were not dependent on foreign countries to give us so much of our supply chain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984333797262024788) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T18:56Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@NoMoreRentiers @aakashg0 Sorry reckless toxic interference. Thanks for the typo alert. All policy interference is toxic beyond the current minimum protections for the needy and I dont consider JP Morgan needy so stop giving them all the poor peoples money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985018856671179197) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T16:19Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements


"We will discuss the mechanics of why mortgages will trigger a historic duration event and avoid a Credit event. Set a reminder for my upcoming Space"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984356796744810570) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T20:28Z 17.7K followers, 2625 engagements


"@JackFarley96 Low coupon inertia is a myth. It will leave people unhedge and raving to grab duration after its too expensive. When home prices accelerate higher with lower mortgage rates then a X% savings on a 500K house wont stop a buyer as houses resume the bidding wars"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984481341505778099) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-01T04:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@charliebilello There is very little reward that these elevated levels you got six times your money when you waited X 1/2 years to invest after the tech peak on March XX 2000 after the XXXX% drawdown in the NASDAQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984860119524311381) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T05:48Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@FibonacciInves1 Its different. There is never been a federal reserve chair like Powell that has been so hostile to the American homeowner so its taken longer for the economy to destroy inflation enough to run over him but then all hes doing is creating a more disinflation impulse for later"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984970771811508561) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T13:08Z 17.7K followers, 5054 engagements


"@dlacalle_IA Your chart is showing the same pattern from George H. W. Bush and Clinton got us to surplus. That trajectory will accelerate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984998176374342086) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T14:56Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@grok @Gupalo1974 This is not accurate elevated. SKU produces excess synthetic gamma which is a suppressor of skew but when you drain the swamp the skew exposed itself and it sends you to equilibrium and more quickly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985016976347984018) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T16:11Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@grok @Gupalo1974 Bingo Yes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985019018273599921) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T16:19Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"We experience massive interference after Covid more than any other episode in US history. All the deficit spending all the rate cut quantitative easing all the rate hikes quantitative tightening. All of this is policy interference and all of this harvest inflation from the future and brings it now in order to steep in the yield curve by swelling volatility but we have to pay the freight later as the massive disinflation will accelerate like a gravitational constant and an inverse exponential acceleration. The longer policy makers suppress option adjusted spread the more violent. The collapse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985019590787690521) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T16:22Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Refi +81% purchase +20% Y/Y with ARM origination up XX% to XX% share. This is based of mortgage rate of XXXX. Rates have melted and the full week ending Nov X 2025 should be more than XXX% year over refi. This will get headlines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980966477248238063) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-22T11:56Z 17.7K followers, 3755 engagements


"@TheStalwart When the XX ( the fixed income portion) completed the greatest bear market since 1984 the odds of it being a positive contribution to total return were and are extraordinarily high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1981834985352130830) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-24T21:27Z 17.7K followers, 1117 engagements


"The trend lower and mortgage rates and the trend lower in treasury volatility and the trend lower in mortgage volatility are toxic conditions for the regional banks because their job is to sell volatility and to sell it in volume and theyre getting lower prices for their volatility and theyre getting lower volume because the independent mortgage brokers are grabbing that business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1981835719304741067) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-24T21:30Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@pboockvar Relying on super illiquid TIPS is a horrible error. TIPS incorporate and embedded option. That causes massive overbuying by some speculators. If there were 10X the supply there would be less implied inflation from different prices paid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1982068556809351218) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-25T12:55Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"The market is signaling that fixed income participants are wrong and the Bank of England will be lower rates faster then the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984260426977440042) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T14:05Z 17.7K followers, 1483 engagements


"Your description of Chinas mercantilism has no daylight with reality. The US political system created Trumps need to delay a more aggressive tariff structure to ensure the decline of inflation and mortgage rates sufficiently before the election because of the hostility towards him and I did not vote for him but this is clearly the case or XX% of all media is anti-Trump so instead of rooting for America and long-term structural balance that reality has forced him to throttle back on the intensity of the tariffs which will delay by a slide amount the further implosion of the US deficit and the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984304117792284688) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T16:59Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@davevermilion Are those victims of devastating economic conditions or poorly operated and previously hyped companies. Over a X to X year period with dollar strength. XX to XX% of those companies will outperform #MMA MSFT META AMZN IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984639741623439625) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-01T15:12Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Tragically the missed opportunity IMO that people will experience is that they will mistakenly believe that bearish market liquidity events deep price declines invalidates the evidence in support of the superiority of passive investing meritocratic capital flow vs active management. The Nasdaq XXX price excluding dividends versus the SP500 rose XXXX times faster than the SP500 following the trough of Dot Com deflation period 3/24/00-10/8/02 The index declines were -XXXXX% NDX vs -XXXXX% SPY. Following the 3/24/00 NDX XXX peak of $XXXXXX the NDX(QQQ)/SPX(SPY) $XXXXXX converged XX% to NDX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984712803631210504) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-01T20:03Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Other than a merger of X index companies or a LBO something cause a some company to drop out of an index and create room for new admitants. I ascribe that to an operating differential. Some companies rise and fall in rank. To what do ascribe corporate osmosis I am happy to learn a explanation beyond what I think is operational"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985009759737479464) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T15:43Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@onechancefreedm We expect to enter disinflation deflation and then thats gonna cause the next wave of inflation just like in the 70s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985023507831685332) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T16:37Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Less than XX dollars from a XX week low weekly close despite a rate cut. The system has more liquidity than ever before because of the Covid accesses and its gonna smother volatility more than its gonna drive up. Gamma and MicroStrategy has a history that people should know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983954607656050761) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-30T17:50Z 17.7K followers, 2037 engagements


"@dlacalle_IA This is repairing very rapidly. Im not sure why youre highlighting certain things. This is just like under the elder bush going into Clinton that ended up with the surplus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984998378472628683) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T14:57Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"$MMA #MMA #MSFTMETAAMZN not strong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1975198910609338809) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-06T13:58Z 17.7K followers, 1398 engagements


"Bonds about to break down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1983199602833502431) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-28T15:50Z 17.7K followers, 4081 engagements


"Virtuous cycle. Vendor financing is now vendor investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984262985091600611) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T14:15Z 17.7K followers, 1495 engagements


"British pound RSI below XX thats not good the euro rolling over thats not good. The global fiscal impulse is ending because lower rates will drive down global rates and drive down the global interest expense. That is one of the factors in the Credit expansion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984335051585438005) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-31T19:01Z 17.7K followers, 3651 engagements


"Man and woman plan and the system laughs. Open AI got almost the greatest assist of all time from COVID-19 Joe Biden and Jerome Powell and the last of those three is leaving the stage in six months. Just watch how the rise and the acceleration higher of the US dollar starts to puncture the aura of invincibility of Sam Altman I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984691638904766580) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-01T18:38Z 17.7K followers, 2771 engagements


"The MVE mortgage volatility engine as observerable through OAS option adjusted speards is like shear force or shear stress with a bending moment. We need tighter mortgage spreads which mechanically force mortgage owners to increase the delta of their hedging and more agency paper rolloff so the FOMC is closer to recycling their rolloff as rolloff approaches the $XX million cap. This will drive my GAVI index towards its minimum and provide skew expansion like failure points across the system. @deerpointmacro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984952188699897974) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T11:54Z 17.7K followers, 3905 engagements


"Rising OAS drags up ERP. Policy can suppress OAS and ERP but for decreasing periods of time. This drives up frequency and energy forcing more net policy accommodation. Unfortunately we are nearing the level where policy accommodation needs to accelerate or the yield curve will flatten faster and deprive OAS of supply and that will bid up OAS and will drive up the dollar and earnings multiples of exporters. You can watch OAS or VXN/VIX VXN/MOVE ZROZ/QQQ ZROZ/MBB ZROZ/JMBS @deerpointmacro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984993551667622146) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T14:38Z 17.7K followers, 17.2K engagements


"Elevated Vega supresses skew. When the ocean of liquidity that policy makers produced following COVID-19 overwhelms the uncertainty and volatility to decay skew will emerge and swell. It will take an enormous amount of effort and time to normalize and there is so much opportunity in that price discovery until equilibrium resumes locally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985010829939327064) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T15:47Z 17.7K followers, 2641 engagements


"The mechanism by which policy interference drives skew up is just the level of interference and speed of policy interference. A corollary is that as policy interference subsides volatility implodes and volatility which had associated gamma exposure shifts to gamma dominance over Vega and that swells skew like draining a Vega swamp with gamma(cars) getting exposed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985013032955609295) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T15:56Z 17.7K followers, 1404 engagements


"@Gupalo1974 This might help the fatter you are the slower you run think of volatility is weight or density"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985013476675260711) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T15:57Z 17.7K followers, XX engagements


"Crypto Vega deflation is driving BTC towards equilibrium below 2025 lows. The coming path will clarify the next lower equilibrium price 2024 2023 2022 etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985276836046127321) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T09:24Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Bitcoin volatility is XXXX% year to date BTC ETH XRP are up single digits. These are massively underperforming their volatility adjusted spreads. These are also SPY NDX and soon JMBS and ZROZ JMBS and ZROZ payout significant dividends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985343700164124785) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T13:49Z 17.7K followers, 1453 engagements


"Bitcoin volatility is down* 24.4%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985344569421054284) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T13:53Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Large debt offering allow fellow traveler credit default swap traders to sell pustulant necrotizing AI profiles land grab debt. These are not MSTR type convertibles. However all credit risk hedging involves selling some underlying with contingent orders to sell more on weakness. ORCL is filling its gap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985359424295157800) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T14:52Z 17.7K followers, 1294 engagements


"Slight bounce from Fridays 3M low trade. I dont expect it to last"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985397923262189648) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T17:25Z 17.7K followers, 1149 engagements


"@_rob_anderson @NDR_Research The NDX XXXXXX 10/08/02 The NDX 1018.86 12/21/02 The NDX bull market started in 2002"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984781297575756245) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T00:35Z 17.7K followers, 1658 engagements


"Trump has a midterm inflation and mortgage rate issue. After midterm elections this will rear its ugly head. Are biannual collections limit how much we can recalibrate the relationship with China which is so powerful and after the next election cycle well just keep on making more progress. You just cant do too much when youre not an actual dictator"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1984846441924190454) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-02T04:54Z 17.7K followers, 6960 engagements


"@Clay_Clan_ton @DowdEdward Unemployment is less than half GFC. Dont panic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985170062349672914) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T02:20Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"This article is ridiculous. The signaled through media that they would end QT. Ending QT would flatten the curve. The FOMC pulled the rug and maintained agency runoff and shortened the duration where they go to auction to Tbills"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985280827735855242) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T09:40Z 17.7K followers, 2656 engagements


"Powell signaled the end of QT through the media IMO days before the FOMC meeting. QT reduce is a flattener. Powell actually kept most of the QT runoff with a repositioning of the rolloff to the Tbill market. Powell is reducing the average life of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. The disturbed individual Powell sends out guidance and doesnt even deliver. The FOMC is desperate to stop curve flattening in order to slow mortgage prepayment acceleration. As we all need to understand prepayments shrink banks in a world with independent mortgage brokers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985349080923398522) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T14:11Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@profplum99 I am fine and I am very excited that I only have age related aches today and no intensity related injuries and I commit to training more and losing weight before next years race. Also getting a new super light Nike footwear that feels like youre running on marshmallows "  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985377296157393360) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T16:03Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@Gupalo1974 @profplum99 Go read the literature itll scare the crap out of you and youll get off it and learn to diet safely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985381509990175013) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T16:20Z 17.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Mortgage rates are responding to Powells perfidious fiction that he was ending QT through media sources. Powell continues his rolloff of agency securities and is electing to shorted the duration of their replacement. After 12/1/25 Powell will go to -50bp 1Q26 or 2Q26"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1985429736441745885) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-11-03T19:31Z 17.7K followers, 2197 engagements