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# ![@levenson_david Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2585771166.png) @levenson_david David Levenson. It's time to reduce risk and beta.

There are discussions about the current market trends, with some analysts predicting a decline in tech stocks and bond yields, while others are warning about the potential risks of a strong dollar. The housing market is also being closely watched, with some noting a surge in purchase activity and refinancing, which could lead to a decrease in mortgage rates. Analysts are also commenting on the Federal Reserve's policies and their potential impact on the market, with some accusing Chairman Powell of being misleading.

### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/interactions)
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- X Week XXXXXXX +528%
- X Month XXXXXXX +156%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +128%
- X Year XXXXXXXXX +66%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/posts_active)
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- X Week XXX +48%
- X Month XXX +32%
- X Months XXXXX +43%
- X Year XXXXX -XX%

### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/followers)
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- X Week XXXXXX +3.50%
- X Month XXXXXX +5.30%
- X Months XXXXXX +33%
- X Year XXXXXX +119%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/influencer_rank)
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### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/influence)
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**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  XXXX% [countries](/list/countries)  XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXXX% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  #2608 [currencies](/list/currencies)  XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[rates](/topic/rates) #322, [mortgage rate](/topic/mortgage-rate) #22, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #3966, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #386, [fed](/topic/fed) #954, [debt](/topic/debt) #1054, [fomc](/topic/fomc) #99, [nasdaq](/topic/nasdaq) #155, [a very](/topic/a-very) 0.27%, [deflation](/topic/deflation) #68

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@davevermilion](/creator/undefined) [@thestalwart](/creator/undefined) [@hendryhugh](/creator/undefined) [@lukegromen](/creator/undefined) [@barchart](/creator/undefined) [@kittiecougar99](/creator/undefined) [@vikingmass](/creator/undefined) [@k_to_macro](/creator/undefined) [@fibonacciinves1](/creator/undefined) [@kinoks_718](/creator/undefined) [@deerpointmacro](/creator/undefined) [@paxtrader777](/creator/undefined) [@benbrey](/creator/undefined) [@offamilyoffice](/creator/undefined) [@giveusarms](/creator/undefined) [@drjstrategy](/creator/undefined) [@alicatvt](/creator/undefined) [@robinjbrooks](/creator/undefined) [@deepinversion](/creator/undefined) [@haydenbaldwin10](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Bank of America (BAC)](/topic/bank-of-america) [Meme Alliance (MMA)](/topic/$mma) [Citigroup Inc (C)](/topic/citigroup) [Amgen, Inc. (AMGN)](/topic/$amgn) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)](/topic/berkshire-hathaway)
### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::2585771166/posts)
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Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"The ultra bond is 9/32 from joining all other treasury maturities in a golden cross. Gasoline down XX% over versus last year. New Zealand cut rates twice as much as expected last week and its making new lows versus the dollar and Australia is not far behind and their response to market forces and you will get rate cuts more than guidance. If youre only watching gold youll have a problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978020560543121878) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-14T08:50Z 17.1K followers, 113.4K engagements


"Getting ready for a multi year high in eurozone debt. This is not good for equity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979119586688606719) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T09:37Z 17.1K followers, 2986 engagements


"The deterioration of the price structure of crude oil which is XX times the size of oil and the cheapest in the history relative to gold with the exception of the Covid liquidation event signals commodity trading advisor returns are melting and the outflows will accelerate and rates will melt down mortgage volatilityand start driving up low beta at the expense of high beta Set a reminder for my upcoming Space"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979692126511251532) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-18T23:32Z 17.1K followers, 5034 engagements


"If you factor in the current ATH of interest rate policy implied in the market tariff collections and reasonable private market forecasting then the continuation of the deficit from under X% to under X% and eventually to 3+ before the next presidential election is the greater likelihood with interest payment on the debt significantly lower then this year which was just under $1T net"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979944810904715281) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-19T16:16Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@mikealfred Tell us after BTC over takes a new. Its leading lower now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979950732129243415) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-19T16:40Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Bitcoin in decline with its implied volatility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1971265477562470767) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-09-25T17:28Z 17.1K followers, 1514 engagements


"The ocean of liquidity and the policy interference to steep in the curving week and the dollar has reduced the speed of widening at a time on oil was held up by supply constraint. Oil is on the verge of a breakdown and that will cause credit default swap traders to pressure the equities and that will widen the spreads further recursively and weaker oil credits will find limited hospitality in the high yield space but the sentinel the divine rod of Credit decay is private credit and private equity until such time as rates go low enough that housing activity super accelerates the economy and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1973921082580070530) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-03T01:20Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Banks are should not and are not responding well to lower interest rates. The big X are rolling over BAC almost flat over X month. KBE KRE are worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1976008182985261184) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-08T19:33Z 17.1K followers, 2499 engagements


"@TheStalwart Bitcoin fell to 75K on 4/8/25. Today BTC traded at 102K only a XX% appreciation since the post Liberation Day lows. This is an extremely bad sign for the future price of bitcoin "  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1976838308014792953) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-11T02:32Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Continental Illinois National Bank required a bailout in May 1984. Jeffries and Co currently occupying a significant portion of the Continental Illinois building. On May XX 1984 30Y bond yields experienced a long term top at 13.94%. Over the XXXX month following the Continental Illinois Nation Bank bailout bond yields decreased by 6.80%. The bond price is now up X% from the October XX 2023 cycle low. How curious is it that XXX Madison Avenue in Manhattan has had both Continental Illinois and Jeffries as anchor tenants Rates melted in 1984 following the CI bailout and rates are poised to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1977075143332499671) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-11T18:13Z 17.1K followers, 4719 engagements


"@UrbanKaoboy Now do Citigroup"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1977512681088446905) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-12T23:12Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"The dollar destroys earnings growth when it rises and the ultra bond wide and Credit spreads when it widen and Powell was holding both down but I cant because most people are thinking that the fan has two mandates labor and price stability. Thats a farce. The Fed has two mandates a steep curve and tight spreads and he cant maintain that anymore in a world of rising ultra bond and rising dollar because the tightness of the spread was the belief that the Fed could keep the curve steep in the dollar week and they cant because of the mortgage dynamic which destroys duration and can only be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1977718297899508071) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-13T12:49Z 17.1K followers, 2678 engagements


"Extremely sure. You would get the same response from Don Rogosin if you asked him he spent XX years on the UST and mortgage desk at GS and then X at DB before GFC. I believe the FOMC always has tension in managing the X primary threats to bank stability; credit (spreads) and Asset Liability duration Mismatch (ALM) the failure to maintain Asset liability Parity (ALP) The FOMC can reduce rates without concern as credit spreads widen when the yield curve is inverted or flat. Unfortunately for the FOMC they cant ease aggressively during a steep curve because they risk widening bank ALM. Silicon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978074062757728636) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-14T12:23Z 17.1K followers, 1374 engagements


"It is my view that we are about to enter the greatest sovereign duration shortage since the XXX% decline in bond yields since 5/30/84 XXXXX% and XX months and XX days later rates were at 7.14%. Oil is telling you a story more powerful than gold which is X% of the size of oil from a global extraction standpoint. Everybody must follow Mike Green Thats only X people I recommend @davevermilion @hendry_hugh @deerpointmacro are X I had been following. I met Mike Green in St Barts. Mike was the most eloquent speaker there certainly more than me. And you should listen to it interview interviews on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978074325304451520) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-14T12:24Z 17.1K followers, 1188 engagements


"You obviously dont know very much about the bond market or you wouldnt say something is ridiculous is what you just said. The mortgage market drives the bond market. It is not the other way around just like the S&P drives the NASDAQ not the other way around. The basis is the S&P and mortgages and the spread has become NASDAQ and treasuries. Dont watch the shiny object"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978177529363271974) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-14T19:14Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"The cost of funds now is XXXX% per year when youre funding in the secured overnight funding contract pegged to March 2027 and you can use that to buy US mortgages without credit risk and generate a spread of more than XXX basis points so why wouldnt you think the end of QT would lift the price of treasuries given that the funding cost is almost XX% lower than it was XX months ago. Its domestic carry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978259522390016161) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T00:39Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@KatusaResearch Its not about the food supply its about the reversal of the reversal. Trump wants oil in the 40s as soon as possible. He got $XX off the price in April that same decline would end the war in Russia because the ruble cant stay elevated at $XX per barrel received by Russia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978262773797716273) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T00:52Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Crypto was rolling over just as ultra bond is rolling up. This is centripetal acceleration clockwise and counter clockwise. UB long funded with BTC short looks like its accelerating despite all the policy interference. This is a negative equity risk premium polarity. @profplum99"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978502285463347679) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T16:44Z 17.1K followers, 2479 engagements


"Strategy melting with XRP ETH BTC. Its over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978560112575824032) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T20:34Z 17.1K followers, 4313 engagements


"5/30 is 99.9bp 10/30 is XX bp The market part of the curve is flattening. Policy is easing -XX in X days. Will the market be able to stop carry traders from increasing their position in UMBS funded with ZQM7 the mid red-pack SOFR contract. The risk to technicians is the breach of XXXX basis 10Y leaves XXXX as the only support until the pre-easing cycle XXX% from 9/11/24. That would then make the XX month bull trap vulnerable to a X year bull trap setting up XXXX as key support setting up a post COVID bull trap. @davevermilion @deerpointmacro @profplum99 My views are well known. Nothing can"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978769136940400983) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T10:25Z 17.1K followers, 2804 engagements


"@davevermilion AMGN will motor to record highs and part because AI will benefit biotech more than almost any industry. And you dont wanna stand in front of biotech when Amgen is on its way to a record price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978769445708304864) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T10:26Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Were not going into a recession with $XX trillion worth of home equity and independent mortgage brokers looking to allow people to refinance as quickly as possible or do a purchase transaction. This is not GFC XXX. A slow down can be accommodated but negative growth for X quarters cannot. 3Q25 will be reported as robust growth and 1Q26 has a lot of fiscal assist. By 2Q26 adjustable rate mortgages will be below X% and more than XXX basis points lower than the prior year so the year of your contribution from fixed residential investment will be off the charts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978770310712393944) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T10:29Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"The Swiss Government cut their growth forecast. The strong currency is harming exports in addition to tariff issues. They will have to go negative in the policy rate in order to drive the currency down to a more export hospitable level"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978786022537212202) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T11:32Z 17.1K followers, 1132 engagements


"Time one semiconductor is up X 1/2% despite a XX% increase in one of their metrics that does not seem very efficient that seems to indicate at the end of the semiconductor bubble is at hand or nearby and thats why @davevermilion is putting on his SOXS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978802793428197396) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T12:38Z 17.1K followers, 1821 engagements


"@WarrenPies That bid will not overwhelm the outflow is going from equity to fixed income as the bubble in the yield curve is deflated and the bubble in emerging markets are deflating which are requiring swap lines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978806816642384145) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T12:54Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"The year over year trend will super accelerate and support GDP. Last year at the initiation of the rate cut cycle we saw a XXX basis point rise in mortgage rates in just under X months. As of yesterday the adjustable rate mortgage was XX basis points lower than last year and this part of the easing cycle the funding cost of buying mortgages is producing a positive carry a positive interest rate spread and as that spread increases the bid on adjustable rate mortgages will just accelerate and as we look in the rearview mirror when we were rising in contrast to our current behavior we have every"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978808067740279058) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T12:59Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Crypto and oil are telling a story that the people who are afraid of inflation dont wanna hear"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978860754091516095) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T16:29Z 17.1K followers, 11.9K engagements


"You can expect the quarterly refunding announcement to reflect what Bessent been saying. He has been saying that the Office of Management and Budget cannot reflect the revenues that the administrations policies are going to generate their cap at XXX and he said just wait and will produce the taxes and reduce the deficit and then will reduce the issuance of bonds and that will help mortgages just like bush end of the issuance of bonds in 2002 so that they could lower a mortgage rates to stimulate the economy after the 9/11 attack . And the regional banks are gonna take it on the chin because"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978914723476427024) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T20:03Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@briantribbitt Bitcoin is leading risk off lower"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979113523922829655) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T09:13Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"I would modify that I push that out to the five-year because of the dynamics of mortgage hedging going from average life above five year its gonna go to five year and then below five year so theres just an enormous amount of pressure on your treasuries and when you see that yield decline that price rise through its three or high it will be like Atlas liftingthe Earth Atlas lifting the XX trillion of mortgage. It centered on the five-year at that time and so its just a minor modification. Theres too much policy interference in the two year. Its too close to fed decision and ECBs decision and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979196583422857395) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T14:43Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Our work says the fed eased too much. They should not have done that December XX 2024 cut which then drove right to a very very high level and then extended this AI bubble and crypto bubble expansion. We couldve had a crypto lead deflation which would lead to lower mortgage rates And this bubble earlier it was the excess not the delayed easing. You could see it in the dollar. Crypto is going to lead lower. It will not survive. Its lows of XX XX or XX. DVOL a symbol for Bitcoin implied volatility is so much easier to sell now first it was Bitcoin futures but now its IBT with $XXX billion and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979198608609009727) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T14:51Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@DowdEdward Ironically Jefferies is in the continental Illinois building in Continental Illinois bought a week bank Penn Central which led to a run on continental Illinois by Bank of America"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979209200094831093) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T15:33Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@DowdEdward So the great ghost of the Christmas future would be more ironic if Bank of America was the one to buy Jefferies so they would buy the second tenant of that building who had a run on them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979209359558115614) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T15:34Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Joel if you go in the St. Louis Fed youll see that we have the lowest amount of debt to housing since 1950 so theres no possible math that would accommodate any rapid transformation of that so theres no risk of that and if we have low and stable unemployment or even low and slightly rising unemployment and then the lower mortgage rate is gonna mean a lot more money in peoples pockets you can see oil down 22%. You can see gasoline down a ton natural gas went from XXX% higher during the inauguration This year to only XX% and it looks like it wants to go to down. Natural gas is an enormous"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979232521150726612) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T17:06Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"So what youre talking about is essentially arbitrage the pace of disinflation versus the resistance to accelerating pre-payments because nobodys hedging any mortgages with a XX year so thats gonna be more inflation expectations driven and mortgage rates arent purely inflation expectations driven theres a lot of factors so thats why the 210s is gonna be more resilient and if youre saying you are considering hedging that with the XXX thats brilliant because with that accomplishes is gets you more rate sensitivity to inflation looking at falling crew down XX% if we get this Ukraine thing over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979233322271232286) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T17:09Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Its a mechanical relationship a fat man cannot run a marathon so as volatility is elevated its random walk range bound with the general trajectory related to the lean of skew. But we are seeing the kurtosis of Bitcoin decay. Strategy is about to go into a death cross its less than one percent away DVOL the VIX of BTC it just bounced off of a low but its testing an all-time low and more and more people are comfortable selling volatility against long position then selling bitcoin volatility against a short position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979287440570393012) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T20:44Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Bitcoin is in its volatility compression phase and when it gets into its re-expansion phase on its bare tail it will be in price discovery lower and that will be your evidence along with the rise of equity risk premium as evidence by the NASDAQ under performance of the S&P and an accelerating path. VXN/VIX and also (VXN/VIX)/VVIX our evidence of the decay of Credit formation when these are rising and mortgage rates will be the accelerator"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979699013910978816) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-19T00:00Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@SwansonTrading When gasoline is two dollars mortgage rates are X% or X% and food prices are going down. He wont need your vote"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1976818854321176631) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-11T01:15Z 17.1K followers, XX engagements


"The 3Y with $3T of supply continues its price increase in the mid rate cycle phase. This is driving up global underweight and short position. The global collateral shortage is getting worse as the 3Y rises with the dollar despite lower rates. Ask yourself why arent people comfortable shorting the three year and 3.472%. Why arent people comfortable funding at less than a X% annual cost it The system is melting down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978006203260145801) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-14T07:53Z 17.1K followers, 1760 engagements


"CPI PCE doesnt like gasoline down so much year over year. The consumer like peace"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978019590031495219) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-14T08:46Z 17.1K followers, 1861 engagements


"@dmunjal @DiMartinoBooth America likes to use home equity as an ATM machine for the country so thats what driving down mortgage rates and theyre gonna do it again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978175883715256795) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-14T19:07Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@NickTimiraos @Lingling_Wei @GavinBade Xi doesnt understand mortgages. His action will smother mortgage rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978309905191780798) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T04:00Z 17.1K followers, 2875 engagements


"On a recorded space is in advance of the September XX 2024 rate cut I said the inversion and rapid decline of fixed rate mortgages XXXX% to XXXX 10/19/23 to 9/11/24 was very destabilizing and without adequate easing mortgage rates would just keep on falling. And policy makers needed to steep in the curve . What we didnt mention at the time but wouldve been appropriate is that there was no advantage going from a fixed rate to a floating so the market share of the shift from fixed to adjustable rate was near zero and so there was not a meaning for loss of duration and the mortgage book of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978607671633756177) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T23:43Z 17.1K followers, 1033 engagements


"Alan Greenspan famously said he could not solve the conundrum of why when he raised interest rates. The long end of the curve didnt follow and its because he didnt understand mortgage volatility. I guarantee you she is not a mortgage trader. I guarantee you she doesnt understand anything like this but because of the rude way you commented youve earned yourself a block"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978780374126780464) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T11:09Z 17.1K followers, 1126 engagements


"@TuttleCapital created the exquisite semi-chelated risk product BITK which is approximately short 0DTE BTC + long BTC. He also created the very timely SKRE which is approximately 2X inverse KRE the regional bank ETF. As crypto decays further and the crowd out that crypto has contributed to in home finance activity decays then the speed up of mortgage activity in the context of the evolution of home finance through mortgage back securities (UMBS) and independent mortgage brokers(IMBs) this represents an existential threat to the business model of the regional bank which also is competing with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979203904609890802) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T15:12Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Regional banks entire business model is threatened. Is rates declined for whatever reason lower deficits less credit borrowing for crypto less credit borrowing for AI and that allows mortgage rates to go down I dont think theyll be competitively priced with the independent mortgage brokers and so their loan growth will invite people to short sell them in my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979207258895442336) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T15:25Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"If you are going to have a high focus on market reaction to perceived policy accommodation you would do well to be consistent. If market prices for broad assets and liquid assets become less buoyant in future periods of TACO episodes you might consider respecting that evolution"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979615525350027738) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-18T18:28Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Swiss rates are negative and their currency continues to rise to all-time highs against the dollar and euro so they will have no choice but to go negative. The only question is whether they do it before or after the next ECB cut which is being signal by the lower rates in Germany and the UK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978081401485300223) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-14T12:52Z 17.1K followers, 351.1K engagements


"Bitcoin is in price discovery lower. Bitcoin s back to moving more than QQQ. Its now in price discovery lower"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979113344419213583) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T09:12Z 17.1K followers, 1894 engagements


"Crypto leading risk off lower. This is the polarity shift that is being cemented by the inability of Powell to ease more than market pricing without destabilizing regional banks earlier that there expiration date of current business model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979174628783182289) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T13:16Z 17.1K followers, 3772 engagements


"Higher for longer(HFL) was always fiction. HFL deformed the distribution curve of bond price volatility skew and kurtosis. Powells continuing interference has created an inevitable super acceleration of price discovery towards equilibrium of the systems asset and liability parity. Powells gradual policy interference will accelerate in this phase until policy achieves ZIRP or policy easing will become too slow and be inadequate to suppress the rise of dollar. The yield curve will either flatten more and trigger dollar strength which will cause a deterioration of free cash flow in the mag seven"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980090775028261200) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-20T01:56Z 17.1K followers, 3791 engagements


"Global curves flattening in synchronization. This is not September October 2024. Xi doesnt understand US mortgages. Tariff retaliation will drive US mortgage rates lower in this part of the cycle and make Trump more popular not less"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978004160390856830) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-14T07:45Z 17.1K followers, 2366 engagements


"@trenthenkaline Historically overvalued equities like 1929 and 2000 produced asset deflation and then price deflation and oil which is XX times the size of gold cant seem to hold a bid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978626241872720076) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T00:57Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Private credit bankruptcies Emerging Markets swap lines Flattening yield curve. Bonds exiting a bear market. The AGG index X% from completing a XX month drawdown total return. Utilities are the leading sector in the S&P XXX. The NDX has underperformed the SPX since the Friday high. Everything everywhere all at once"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978810315836891610) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T13:08Z 17.1K followers, 1591 engagements


"#MMA MSFT META AMZN $MMA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1973948656274604270) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-03T03:10Z 17.1K followers, 1830 engagements


"When you have the ultra bond driving utilities up XX% year to date total return and over the last month you have double digits XLU divided by bitcoin and if you volatility adjusted youre over XX% YTD. Its going to be a long crypto winter a very long winter. The Capital is exiting AI and crypto and its rolling down Beta. @GrantCardone @profplum99"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978476348181037542) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T15:01Z 17.1K followers, 3788 engagements


"Zero coupon UST bonds XX years or longer are the only eligible elements of the fund. Its value rises as rates approach or go below low zero like oil did in 2020 when no one thought unit was possible. In this case I dont think bond yields can stop above zero because the will need to be massive rate hikes to slow bond yields from falling and the fragility of curve dependent banks will limit the speed of policy accommodation removal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979696077646221330) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-18T23:48Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"You are wrong. You just need Powell too slow. The rate of cuts that no other federal reserve chairman had been as reckless as him both with hikes and cuts and we will see dollar Ascension and all of this gorgeous gold that youve been in love with its gonna have a major breakdown and the deficits are gonna have a major breakdown and yields are gonna have major breakdowns because Powellcreated this inflation with his hikes in his cuts and its gonna go away and the housing bubble is gonna pay a lot of taxes and reduce the deficit like George Bush Senior"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1977511679316336699) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-12T23:08Z 17.1K followers, 1662 engagements


"You dont understand the goal. Trump won. The goal is to get mortgage bonds up in price which is down in yield. Trump beat Powell. Someone just bought a X 7/8 (1.875%) SOFR Fed Funds contract for March of 2027 which the FOMC say will bottom at XXXX% Dont believe Powell. The AI/crypto bubble is deflating. Always consult an advisor. Not us. Leadership will widen from XLU to XLV XLP XHB IMBs XBI ZROZ For more sophisticated investors RFIX TMF will get you huge duration exposure which is going to be in the greatest shortage/deficit of all time. Everybody thinks its easy to generate M2. Go tell that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978422136579485948) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T11:26Z 17.1K followers, 1098 engagements


"The mortgage volatility engine which is flattening the FF to 10Y curve is dragging all major G7 curves down flatter with it. The US which is unique in its prepayment opportunity for a mortgage holder experiences more pre-payments as mortgage rates decline and thats observable in lower tenure yields and part and we are now at a significant and rising yield reduction versus one year ago. The US adjustable rate mortgage known as the seven year fixed six month reset is now XX basis points and extremely likely to go to a more than XXX basis points with a possibility of a XXX basis points year over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979988783857619083) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-19T19:11Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"$MMA #MMA #MSFTMETAAMZN not strong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1975198910609338809) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-06T13:58Z 17.1K followers, 1318 engagements


"Youre only going to be accurate in the timeframe when Powell is over easing your whole thesis is gonna blow up when Powell cant ease more than the markets expecting. I was going to wait till a dollar was melting up to reengage with you but its so transparently obvious now that its going sideways for six months even during easing that its just gonna melt up to new highs of course overtime a X% deflation is going to cut the purchasing power of the dollar in half by XX% after XX years but thats just nonsense that youre talking about. Its just so exhausting to read your ear leaf system is just so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1977532732600205619) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-13T00:31Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Powell signaled that he can no longer safely roll off the balance sheet and theyre gonna be ending that program soon with its up to XX billion monthly mortgage back securities. Recently Beth HammackCleveland Fed President wanted to increase selling of UMBS. Adjustable rate mortgages are now only XX basis points above their multiple year low yields. Today ARMs had a X bp steepening versus 30Y fixed. Down XX bp today versus only X for fixed. This will be toxic to bank balance sheets as mortgage rate decline. @profplum99 @deerpointmacro @davevermilion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978166014471729348) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-14T18:28Z 17.1K followers, 37K engagements


"51.4 is a problem for the curve bubble @davevermilion @deerpointmacro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978442788350853303) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T12:48Z 17.1K followers, 36.3K engagements


"This is telling me Berkshire Hathaway is gonna have a very bad 4Q and 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978479491753058708) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T15:14Z 17.1K followers, 23.3K engagements


"The AI and crypto bubble are deflating and theres an enormous amount of deflation ahead which will lead to price deflation on consumer goods"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978560549609783790) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-15T20:36Z 17.1K followers, 6317 engagements


"The FOMC is not cutting rates because theyre big friends with Donald Trump They are cutting rates because the demand for money is deteriorating and they have to drop the rate to where the demand for money is or theyll be mopping up so much liquidity every day. Theyll drive the dollar up rapidly and that will break tech fast as well as flatten the curve and harm the regional banks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978802236693102808) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T12:36Z 17.1K followers, 3996 engagements


"If you know how a jet engine works they suck in a lot of air and they squeeze it through a little tube like tube toothpaste so oil is melting down. Its the lowest clothes of the year including below the $XX drop in liberation day and so what that mean isthey are shorting oil buying gold but eventually the commodity trading advisors are gonna get redemptions and theyre not just gonna be selling oil will be selling their golden but I wouldnt be a fool to be shorting the gold you can maybe consider shorting gold skew maybe some volatility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1978905163936014364) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-16T19:25Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Bill wrap it up. Pimco Janus and others moved you out IMO. Curve flattening will only continue and accelerate and the only way to stop the XX year from going down is rate hikes and were not gonna get that until the economy starts to overheat on a nominal basis and with inflation coming down dont hold your breath"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979204644225106197) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-17T15:15Z 17.1K followers, 11.1K engagements


"@LawrenceLepard There was a tail risk of higher Bitcoin now the tail risk is lower Bitcoin and thats what its doing. Its in price discovery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979685655501558012) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-18T23:06Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Bitcoin is in its volatility compression phase and when it gets into its expanding put skew and volatility re-expansion phase it will be its bearish tail. BTC price discovery lowerL will be your evidence along with the rise of equity risk premium as evidence by the NASDAQ under performance of the S&P and an accelerating path. and the rise of VXN/VIX and also (VXN/VIX)/VVIX The evidence of the decay of M2 credit formation are the rise of these formulas and this leads to melting mortgage rates which will be a recursive accelerating accelerator"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979700144426697211) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-19T00:04Z 17.1K followers, 4138 engagements


"Anyone who believes that the dollarization is anything more than temporarily policy driven by an excessively accommodative federal reserve chairman is someone who doesnt actually understand the mechanics of mortgages money creation and yield structure which then leads to what will happen in equities commodities and crypto"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979700648099627154) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-19T00:06Z 17.1K followers, 1001 engagements


"10Y UST rates are more affected by the agglomerated supply/demand curves of all US mortgage than any other factor; inflation NGDP and supply. Mortgages do not carry credit risk but they introduced significant asset/liabilities parity risk(ALP) uncertainty into the system to such a degree that they could destroy a significant bank in just X day. Silicon Valley Bank was the manifestation of the risk. Its important to note that the stress test that Silicon Valley took was for lower rates and their failure was the result of higher rates. What we seem to be experiencing now is the real concern of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979948645723021530) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-19T16:31Z 17.1K followers, 2074 engagements


"@anasalhajji You can recycle your surplus into dollar priced assets when theyre going up but when theyre going down and theyre inevitably going down for an extended period of time you want your dollars back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1979989183100748117) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-19T19:13Z 17.1K followers, 2017 engagements


"@unusual_whales Amazon web services"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980027707959173367) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-19T21:46Z 17.1K followers, 11.3K engagements


"@TheStalwart The approaching market disequilibrium event will not have a credit widening predicate. The decay of asset liability parity is the fuse of the coming risk contagion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980062652320673833) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-20T00:04Z 17.1K followers, 1063 engagements


"@Quintzy Lower mortgage rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980098664157663683) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-20T02:28Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@yieldsearcher @WahlstromGrant On 5/30/84 bond yields were XXXXX% and over 22M and 17D bond yields declined to XXXX% on 4/16/86. Saudi let prices of oil fall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/levenson_david/status/1980102637795102794) [@levenson_david](/creator/x/levenson_david) 2025-10-20T02:43Z 17.1K followers, XXX engagements