[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @GlennLuk Glenn Glenn posts on X about china, productivity, taiwan, fossil the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and 4624 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX +92% - X Month XXXXXXX +165% - X Months XXXXXXXXX -XX% - X Year XXXXXXXXXX +186% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/posts_active)  - X Months XXX -XX% - X Year XXXXX +39% ### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/followers)  - X Week XXXXXX +0.25% - X Month XXXXXX +0.39% - X Months XXXXXX +36% - X Year XXXXXX +101% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/influence) --- **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) [finance](/list/finance) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [stocks](/list/stocks) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [china](/topic/china) #956, [productivity](/topic/productivity) #873, [taiwan](/topic/taiwan), [fossil](/topic/fossil) #95, [beijing](/topic/beijing), [japan](/topic/japan), [investment](/topic/investment), [drone](/topic/drone), [bop](/topic/bop), [llm](/topic/llm) **Top assets mentioned** [Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)](/topic/costco) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "A key strategic difference between the geopolitics of oil and renewables is that geographic luck plays much more of a decisive factor for oil and gas than it does solar/wind. Instead the decisive factor for renewables is production and deployment capability to capture latent energy from the sun that has bathed this planet for billions of years"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947894615899853219) 2025-07-23 05:40:41 UTC 25.3K followers, 1472 engagements "@ashiqeLSD They will enjoy the fruits of improved productivity"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947804338820088107) 2025-07-22 23:41:57 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "While we marvel at the economic benefits of a navigable Mississippi River system bountiful arable land enabling "amber waves of grain" and "purple mountain majesties above the fruited plain" and rich stores of oil & gas + other useful commodities"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947188782828233119) 2025-07-21 06:55:57 UTC 25.3K followers, 5295 engagements "Rough estimate that Chinese-origin represent 40-45% of global annual flow of those passing university-level linear algebra course 👇. Chinese-origin workers make up around 40-50% of AI researchers. Probably not a coincidence"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946785560846389251) 2025-07-20 04:13:41 UTC 25.3K followers, 31.9K engagements "2 Windy steppe regions were also quite barren and did not support heavy population densities. Now modern wind turbines can turn relatively non-productive regions in places like Inner Mongolia into energy powerhouses"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947188791317500189) 2025-07-21 06:55:59 UTC 25.3K followers, 5809 engagements "Costco is a national treasure. Anybody who maligns Costco will be immediately blocked"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1948193176025698607) 2025-07-24 01:27:03 UTC 25.3K followers, 2352 engagements "Both @dwarkesh_sp and @adam_tooze have been scaling their China learning curves but starting at seemingly different poles. I wish we could push fast forward to when they (IMO inevitably) meet somewhere in the middle and discuss like in an interview perhaps"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947469906305552832) 2025-07-22 01:33:02 UTC 25.3K followers, 8225 engagements "Brightline generated $187M revenue on 2.8M ridership in 2024 👇 It is capitalized with $5.5B of municipal and corporate debt. So on debt alone revenue payback period is XX years"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1945333094191652885) 2025-07-16 04:02:06 UTC 25.3K followers, 1590 engagements "Brightline causes five orders of magnitude more fatalities than Chinese HSR. At a societal level Brightlines fatality rate would sit between cars and ultra-risky motorcycles"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1945331367413432798) 2025-07-16 03:55:15 UTC 25.3K followers, 3020 engagements "Industrial policy development doesnt have to be such an enigma. Focus on human capital development and everything else will largely take care of itself"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946786020797845928) 2025-07-20 04:15:31 UTC 25.3K followers, 2466 engagements "@zephyr_z9 His thought is he can just sell the stock later if he needs to. This approach saves capital gains taxes"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947791666548773365) 2025-07-22 22:51:36 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "So while extraction of shrinking fossil fuels is likely to get more expensive over time the productivity of the clean energy ecosystem improves. Clean energy has already breached cost-parity with the cheapest sources of fossil fuel energy (coal). How long before its half or even one-tenth as inexpensive"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947903742277497308) 2025-07-23 06:16:57 UTC 25.3K followers, 1755 engagements "Macro analysts be like my barber just raised price by $X and the only logical conclusion is goddamn Chinese overcapacity"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946722357806252205) 2025-07-20 00:02:33 UTC 25.3K followers, 3077 engagements "4 Regions like the "roof of the world" in Tibet were also historically poor because of the extreme mountainous terrain. But massive hydro projects like this tap into these extremes (in this case a massive elevation drop making it ideal for hydro power)"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947188796086468978) 2025-07-21 06:56:00 UTC 25.3K followers, 6503 engagements "Its so jarring when macro folks tell you politically entrenched elites prevented China from pushing through structural reform and then you see numbers like this:"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947801309601796117) 2025-07-22 23:29:55 UTC 25.3K followers, 39.4K engagements "Renewables (especially solar) also lends itself more to modern trends of digitalization robotics and automation. You already have automated near-lights-out factories producing the key components required to deploy solar 24/7. Automation technology has reached point of maturity where it is already maintaining installed infrastructure with little human intervention 👇. Its only a matter of time before other aspects of building out incremental greenfield solar are also automated"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947903266060439687) 2025-07-23 06:15:03 UTC 25.3K followers, 2762 engagements "@off_by_one_ @xh_andrea The technology and most of the vendors are Taiwan based anyway Which means that it didnt add much incremental value-add to Chinas economy as the gross export figures implied; ergo less adjustment required"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947587282934075450) 2025-07-22 09:19:27 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "One under-appreciated positive aspect of solar PV wind and battery storage is that you can add incremental energy in bite-sized chunks in a very short amount of time. Just add another wind turbine a block of solar panels or another battery array to an existing project. It makes it much easier to quickly ramp up supply to meet incremental power demand. Whereas with nuclear hydro coal and CCGT you have to add in large bite sizes (100-1 GW+) with significant (multi-year) lead time for construction (which means higher capitalized interest load)"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946543318508429710) 2025-07-19 12:11:06 UTC 25.3K followers, 5623 engagements "Siberias aggregate energy resources are the equivalent of like six weeks of work** blanketing the Gobi Desert with solar PV so why would this compel Beijing to antagonize its nuclear-armed neighbor ** hyperbole but you get the point"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946535431379587342) 2025-07-19 11:39:46 UTC 25.3K followers, 13.7K engagements "This means that the U.S. current account deficit needs to be adjusted by this stock-based compensation effect when compared to historical current account balances when stock-based compensation wasnt such a large component of employee compensation"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947130841345516008) 2025-07-21 03:05:43 UTC 25.3K followers, 1145 engagements "@joequant @robin_j_brooks Supply of smartphones is not elastic the process to diversify iPhones out of China has been going on for X years and it is not even 1/4th done. Samsung took years to move its factories to Vietnam"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947443298517586197) 2025-07-21 23:47:18 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "1 Historically deserts were barren inhospitable places that could not support much biological life. Now solar PV infrastructure can turn non-productive desert land into a highly productive energy producing region"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947188789069398471) 2025-07-21 06:55:58 UTC 25.3K followers, 18.1K engagements "@zephyr_z9 @okaythenme @brickroad7 X. Its Microsoft Explorer / Netscape redux for the AI era. Funnily enough Microsoft is one of the incumbents doing it again. Probably a lesson here. X. AI (especially generative) like the Internet will be bifurcated with China its own category"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947926215639371865) 2025-07-23 07:46:15 UTC 25.3K followers, 1711 engagements "Approximation of its scale can be calculated by attribution of total stock-based compensation earned by U.S. employees based on share of foreign revenue. Quick sanity check on LLM shows how SBC has risen by hundreds of billions over the last X decades. The BoP adjustment effect would be based on some % of this amount based on foreign revenue/earnings as a share of total revenue/earnings"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947136285182955576) 2025-07-21 03:27:21 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "In this thread I explain the impact of changing capital mix from shorter to longer-lived assets arithmetically skews any calculation involving GDP. The G in GDP stands for gross and reflects the fact that GDP doesnt take into account depreciation (whether real or accounting)"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1738902263622517012) 2023-12-24 12:39:41 UTC 25.3K followers, 5431 engagements "Because U.S. employees are getting a disproportionate share of new stock issuance as part of their compensation recurring deficit of stock sales to foreign entities that shows up on the capital account does not actually result in aggregate foreign ownership of U.S. equities rising"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947131696153076204) 2025-07-21 03:09:06 UTC 25.3K followers, 1079 engagements "Some interesting figures from the livestream about just how much was stolen from the Malaysian public: Bradley estimates that Jho Low individually stole $2.5B of the total $7.65B stolen from 1MDB"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946477388281610402) 2025-07-19 07:49:07 UTC 25.3K followers, 3306 engagements "One way to conceptualize these large $10-100B+ renewable energy infrastructure projects is by thinking of them as unlocking some massive oil or gas discovery (e.g. Sakhalin) except with the added benefit of being a lot cleaner. The cost of unlocking these discoveries is the hard work of infrastructure construction. But once these massive works are complete with the right level of maintenance they can generate clean energy as long as the sun still shines"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946826604434567413) 2025-07-20 06:56:47 UTC 25.3K followers, 1618 engagements "First time driving in a Luxgen EV. Model n7 which is the one from the Luxgen/Hon Hai joint venture. Luxgen is the main local car brand in Taiwan. Since it lacks scale it often partners with more established carmakers for critical tech like engines e.g. Dongfeng"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1939139925196288267) 2025-06-29 01:52:40 UTC 25.3K followers, 2497 engagements "Jho Low sighting: living in Shanghai under assumed name Constantinos Achilles Veis 😂 What would your fake 5-star fugitive name be Mine would be McLovin Zhou-Suzuki"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946449670085247355) 2025-07-19 05:58:59 UTC 25.3K followers, 17.4K engagements "Yes China could support a large population based on large natural endowments by 17th and 18th century standards but the context of thread is recent modern history and per capita endowments. That said I can agree that China has decent (but not ludicrous) coal reserves relative to its population"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947254740850737531) 2025-07-21 11:18:03 UTC 25.3K followers, 3008 engagements "Its harder to visualize the potential demand-side impact on the buyer but the loss in income is just as real. By artificially restricting demand (e.g. through tariffs) product costs rise which means all things equal the buyer can afford fewer of those goods. This is the same as saying real income has declined driven by the productivity loss of being forced to switch to a higher-cost overseas supplier"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947581679515644300) 2025-07-22 08:57:11 UTC 25.3K followers, 1472 engagements "@matthewswspence U.S. was already a high-income country before it became a dominant oil producer. Oil just *helped make it into a superpower (having oil when others dont is a huge strategic advantage as Japan and Germany FA and FO)"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947324745558434042) 2025-07-21 15:56:13 UTC 25.3K followers, XX engagements "One can even argue that the calculations above are conservative because they assume finite useful lives when these projects could easily be maintained (or upgraded in the case of solar PV) into perpetuity"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946826285868884085) 2025-07-20 06:55:31 UTC 25.3K followers, 1607 engagements "Another key difference between oil (and fossil fuels more broadly) and renewables is centralization. Fossil fuel extraction and related useful energy production (like refineries and power plants) are more efficient when deployed on a centralized basis. And while there are certain aspects of clean energy value chain that favor centralization (like production of solar panels) the infrastructure deployment itself is highly decentralized"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947897336279273974) 2025-07-23 05:51:29 UTC 25.3K followers, 1564 engagements "Taiwan Taxicab Chronicles: Mr. Yu former CNC machine worker. I am going to channel @pretentiouswhat and share my own recent taxi conversation. I had a relatively long ride this morning as I had to drop the kids off at various activities and then go to the hospital again. Mr. Yu picks me up at our serviced apartment in Xitun () at 8:40am"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1945353830994166203) 2025-07-16 05:24:30 UTC 25.3K followers, 13K engagements "5 China is not blessed with significant petroleum and natural gas reserves relative to its huge population. But the infrastructure-driven push to electrify transportation (e.g. electric vehicles HSR local metro) blunts these natural disadvantages"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947188798556868778) 2025-07-21 06:56:01 UTC 25.3K followers, 6739 engagements "@patwayyy Not arable land which is what has historically counted"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947193119361073535) 2025-07-21 07:13:11 UTC 25.3K followers, 1106 engagements "When referencing "God-given natural endowments" I am clearly discussing modern Chinese history in this thread not the factors that gave rise to pre-modern Chinese civilization hundreds/thousands of years ago"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947496758747271505) 2025-07-22 03:19:44 UTC 25.3K followers, 3110 engagements "Follow-up: Tesla full-year automotive margin (ex-ZEV) came in lower than my forecast at 15%"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1948194784428064952) 2025-07-24 01:33:26 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "This is generation equivalent of X GW traditional baseload coal plant running at XX% capacity factor. @ $800/kW upfront capital cost of the coal plant would be XX% of the 29B price tag. Once you factor in fuel costs & pollution economics are quite competitive"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1762919853810216998) 2024-02-28 19:17:01 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "Besides the plummeting cost curve the other truly disruptive aspect of solar PV wind and batteries is how it decentralizes energy production. You can add incremental power generation in digestible bite-sized chunks to remote locations without having to first build high fixed cost distribution infrastructure like roads (for CNG) pipelines (for natural gas) and high-voltage transmission lines (for power from centralized production). Think about how transformative this is for poor undeveloped countries that have historically been fossil fuel poor or for regions inside countries that have not yet"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946547745625645064) 2025-07-19 12:28:42 UTC 25.3K followers, 4892 engagements "I dont have a sense of the relative risk of owning vs renting right now. But I can say Oracles probably has financial werewithal to support such investment more than OpenAI which has an impact on the inherent risk embedded in Oracle equity vs OpenAI equity which is what I am trying to focus on here"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947864692661358814) 2025-07-23 03:41:46 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "Back in Taichung - 12-minute metro ride from Taoyuan Airport to Taoyuan HSR station (NT35 per person) - 36-minute HSR ride to Taichung HSR (NT540 per adult ticket) - 15-minute taxi ride to service apartment (NT280) - Friendly welcome from staff who remembered us from our 2020-21 stay ( ) Feels like coming home"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1938823186126348533) 2025-06-28 04:54:03 UTC 25.3K followers, 11.8K engagements "@kejimao Have they expressly mentioned Yajiang as part of EDWC or building out datacenter or is this just conjecture for now"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946740406856933827) 2025-07-20 01:14:16 UTC 25.3K followers, 2975 engagements "@kejimao More conjecture: The other showcase aspect of the Yajiang project will be the ultra-large-scale demonstration of autonomous drone transport for equipment and materials transport given the elevation and rough terrain - and related productivity impacts in extreme conditions"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946741229221507283) 2025-07-20 01:17:32 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "With the liquidity spigots were largely shutdown these balance sheets were in a sense "frozen" . . providing Beijing policymakers a period of time to undergo detailed audit-like work of reviewing tens of thousands of projects and financial statements to diagnose the issues . . with the ultimate objective of coming up workable solutions to resolve accumulated bad or under-performing assets and their associated debts (whether formal loans/bonds or informal abnormal working capital liabilities)"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1897305801800270118) 2025-03-05 15:18:48 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "The supporting evidence for these theories is straightforward and should theoretically get easier to locate over time. If China is understating its current account surplus to the tune of hundreds of billions a year over time there should be an accumulating statistical distortion in its offshore holdings. After more than X years these distortions should be very large (multiple trillions) and increasingly noticeable in counterparty accounts. It is reasonable to ask for basic evidence of this"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1944851954858963285) 2025-07-14 20:10:14 UTC 25.3K followers, 1910 engagements "@bookwormengr But thats low in per capita terms which is what determines poverty vs. wealth. China produces more natural gas than Qatar but it isnt enough to make 1.4B productive at dully developed levels whereas it is enough to make Qatari citizens among the richest on the planet"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947491320437645374) 2025-07-22 02:58:08 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "China has been the most populated region of the world for millennia for a reason Why are you talking about millennia Did I talk about millennia I thought I was very specific. If you want to talk about how China became a big powerful country-civilization through millennia because of fertile silt from the Yellow River go right ahead but dont QT me"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947314187635392970) 2025-07-21 15:14:16 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "@joequant @robin_j_brooks I just go back to thinking it is just hard to model the non-deterministic system that is our global economy"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947456020021928210) 2025-07-22 00:37:51 UTC 25.3K followers, XX engagements "@ChefMiew @TonamiPlayman No reason why HK wouldnt be connected or itd be a quick transfer from maglev to HSR"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1943178027745333688) 2025-07-10 05:18:38 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "Thats still more agricultural workers retiring. I put workers in quotes because this is more a reflection of non-productive excess workforce that has not yet been able to be absorbed into the modern workforce. Chinas true/relevant unemployment rate was never its official urban unemployment rate but this excess non-productive labor on the farms"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947855503855387030) 2025-07-23 03:05:16 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "This multi-decade trend was driven by: - Sectoral shift to tech/IP/branded companies whose value is disproportionately weighted to intangible assets - Shift to stock-based compensation - International tax optimization"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947135108017983872) 2025-07-21 03:22:40 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "Some indication that the Communists in Beijing just might have read Smith Ricardo et al. and understand intra-national comparative advantage (i.e. between regions) and the value of economic specialization and tech/industrial clustering. Also indicates clear recognition of inconsistency in institutional competence especially at lower levels of government. Xi is like a referee blowing the whistle signaling the end of this round in the tournament where it is time for the losers to bow out (cut off support) and the winners to move on the next round (and get more resources). This is a part of"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946095595812270187) 2025-07-18 06:32:01 UTC 25.3K followers, 16.8K engagements "First they came for Hungary and I did not speak out because I was not Hungarian. Then they came for the Bulgarians and I did not speak out because I am not fond of tripe soup. Then they came for Paraguay and I did not speak out because I keep getting it mixed up with Bolivia. Then they came for Nauru and there was no one left to speak for Nauru but me. #SilentNoLonger #YouCrossedTheLineBuster #IHaveMoreFollowersThan @Republic_Nauru"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946733356072480790) 2025-07-20 00:46:15 UTC 25.3K followers, 1822 engagements "Its easy to visualize supply-side economic impact from demand disruption. Buyer buys fewer goods which lowers incomes for the supplier. Supplier has less revenue to pay workers or fewer profits to spend in the local economy"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947578437381853515) 2025-07-22 08:44:18 UTC 25.3K followers, 1211 engagements "* Addendum: Per capita matters Lower East Side edition Poverty Not poverty"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947492815153385838) 2025-07-22 03:04:04 UTC 25.3K followers, 1960 engagements "SAIC Motors makes a much lower gross margin on its non-China sales compared to its China sales"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1928433319684809117) 2025-05-30 12:48:26 UTC 25.3K followers, 7739 engagements "@paulmidler I suppose we can pay attention to what Apple officially says about the book and claims therein"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1925560325887180913) 2025-05-22 14:32:11 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "It just dawned on me how Chinas rare earths restrictions against Japan in 2010 may have indirectly contributed to Japan Inc. prioritizing hydrogen / fuel cell cars over electric vehicles powered by electric motors"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1943533352746729638) 2025-07-11 04:50:35 UTC 25.3K followers, 82.2K engagements "You specified national and brought up SOEs not me. EV charging infrastructure would count. ESS both batteries and pumped storage. UHV transmission. Solar. Wind. Hydro. Local transport infrastructure (those bridges and tunnels) metro. National networks like HSR. These make up the bulk of the orange infrastructure category below"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947211533764960707) 2025-07-21 08:26:21 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "If you ever played Civilization 👇 is the equivalent of discovering tech that allows you to upgrade a desert tile into an energy-producing one. Affordable solar PV production has the same effect as discovering oil in the Middle East and then multiplying it by 10x"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947889663890575842) 2025-07-23 05:21:00 UTC 25.3K followers, 9314 engagements "I think foreigners especially Americans do not fully appreciate China's predilection for large capital-intensive infrastructure projects because most do not know what it was like to live in a place starved of God-given natural endowments"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947188780664025306) 2025-07-21 06:55:56 UTC 25.3K followers, 53.4K engagements "The value of infrastructure rises based on the productivity of the economy. So increases in productivity increase new opportunities to deploy new infrastructure. There seems to be a particularly deep well of projects (tens of trillions) just to transition from a fossil fuel based to clean energy / electricity-based economic for example"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947565282353959262) 2025-07-22 07:52:01 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "@matthewswspence @gonglei89 Biggest yes but I am not sure I agree objectively the most aggressive Taiwan is a lot more aggressive by many metrics just look at CA surplus as a % of GDP"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947835473709437042) 2025-07-23 01:45:40 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "Can I say something without everyone getting mad"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946802564735111401) 2025-07-20 05:21:15 UTC 25.3K followers, 23.5K engagements "Agree China got to where it was with the beneficiary of these large resource endowments. But then the game changed and fossil fuels mattered much more starting in the 19th with coal and into the 20th century (especially petroleum). That is the context its modern institutions economy and what I argue is its predilection for capital-intensive development I discuss in the thread"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947260194796507566) 2025-07-21 11:39:43 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "Theres this stubborn idea linked to the structural overcapacity narrative that the Chinese car sector isnt profitable. The people making these claims are either unwilling or incapable of reading financial statements"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946188216215945286) 2025-07-18 12:40:03 UTC 25.3K followers, 1390 engagements "Auto sector industry revenue and profits in China h/t @nborstsf"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1946183081955844255) 2025-07-18 12:19:39 UTC 25.3K followers, 3567 engagements "While Beijing underwent the review process . . LGFVs could tap into new credit mainly to refinance old credit like the ST/MT bank loans that were maturing. This is the "fiscal consolidation" brought up in this thread. But it did not represent new incremental liquidity as Beijing wanted to limit further accumulation of bad assets"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1897305803830235361) 2025-03-05 15:18:48 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements "First the data: Very clear the changing mix of capital investment from shorter-lived factory machine type assets (business) to housing and infrastructure over the past XX years"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1738901626323120478) 2023-12-24 12:37:09 UTC 25.3K followers, 5931 engagements "I had calculated XX km2 per GW of solar PV but that was conservative because those existing projects aren't fully built out. I think this LLM estimate is closer to the mark: 10-14 km2 per GW"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947174599235604892) 2025-07-21 05:59:35 UTC 25.3K followers, 1750 engagements "The reported massive pay packages for OpenAI researchers were largely due to having to replace the in-the-money equity packages they had to walk away from at OpenAI. But I wonder whether risky financial bets like 👇 also factored into the decisions to walk away. META equity package is ostensibly less risky than OpenAI equity. Would one rather have an XX% chance at a range between $80-120M or a heads/tails coin flip of $X or $200M I expect many would choose the former even if expected value is higher with the latter"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947861555552653649) 2025-07-23 03:29:19 UTC 25.3K followers, 5865 engagements "Anyway just to tie it to the intended theme of the thread I think it was quite predictable for the U.S. to double down on what it is comfortable with i.e. natural endowments (fossil fuels) and push back from renewables (even though ironically U.S. is also relatively well-endowed with natural solar PV and wind potential). And I think its a major strategic mistake in the long run"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947329477601562633) 2025-07-21 16:15:01 UTC 25.3K followers, XX engagements "@bostromsutopia It takes time to ramp up production capacity to physically deploy it to connect it to the grid to absorb it with new demand etc. Just like it took 40-50 years to develop Middle East oil fields"  [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) on [X](/post/tweet/1947898857326842268) 2025-07-23 05:57:32 UTC 25.3K followers, XX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@GlennLuk Glenn
Glenn posts on X about china, productivity, taiwan, fossil the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and 4624 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +92%
- X Month XXXXXXX +165%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX -XX%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +186%
Mentions: XX #
- X Months XXX -XX%
- X Year XXXXX +39%
Followers: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXX +0.25%
- X Month XXXXXX +0.39%
- X Months XXXXXX +36%
- X Year XXXXXX +101%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence countries finance travel destinations technology brands stocks automotive brands
Social topic influence china #956, productivity #873, taiwan, fossil #95, beijing, japan, investment, drone, bop, llm
Top assets mentioned Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"A key strategic difference between the geopolitics of oil and renewables is that geographic luck plays much more of a decisive factor for oil and gas than it does solar/wind. Instead the decisive factor for renewables is production and deployment capability to capture latent energy from the sun that has bathed this planet for billions of years"
@GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 05:40:41 UTC 25.3K followers, 1472 engagements
"@ashiqeLSD They will enjoy the fruits of improved productivity" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 23:41:57 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"While we marvel at the economic benefits of a navigable Mississippi River system bountiful arable land enabling "amber waves of grain" and "purple mountain majesties above the fruited plain" and rich stores of oil & gas + other useful commodities" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 06:55:57 UTC 25.3K followers, 5295 engagements
"Rough estimate that Chinese-origin represent 40-45% of global annual flow of those passing university-level linear algebra course 👇. Chinese-origin workers make up around 40-50% of AI researchers. Probably not a coincidence" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-20 04:13:41 UTC 25.3K followers, 31.9K engagements
"2 Windy steppe regions were also quite barren and did not support heavy population densities. Now modern wind turbines can turn relatively non-productive regions in places like Inner Mongolia into energy powerhouses" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 06:55:59 UTC 25.3K followers, 5809 engagements
"Costco is a national treasure. Anybody who maligns Costco will be immediately blocked" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-24 01:27:03 UTC 25.3K followers, 2352 engagements
"Both @dwarkesh_sp and @adam_tooze have been scaling their China learning curves but starting at seemingly different poles. I wish we could push fast forward to when they (IMO inevitably) meet somewhere in the middle and discuss like in an interview perhaps" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 01:33:02 UTC 25.3K followers, 8225 engagements
"Brightline generated $187M revenue on 2.8M ridership in 2024 👇 It is capitalized with $5.5B of municipal and corporate debt. So on debt alone revenue payback period is XX years" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-16 04:02:06 UTC 25.3K followers, 1590 engagements
"Brightline causes five orders of magnitude more fatalities than Chinese HSR. At a societal level Brightlines fatality rate would sit between cars and ultra-risky motorcycles" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-16 03:55:15 UTC 25.3K followers, 3020 engagements
"Industrial policy development doesnt have to be such an enigma. Focus on human capital development and everything else will largely take care of itself" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-20 04:15:31 UTC 25.3K followers, 2466 engagements
"@zephyr_z9 His thought is he can just sell the stock later if he needs to. This approach saves capital gains taxes" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 22:51:36 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"So while extraction of shrinking fossil fuels is likely to get more expensive over time the productivity of the clean energy ecosystem improves. Clean energy has already breached cost-parity with the cheapest sources of fossil fuel energy (coal). How long before its half or even one-tenth as inexpensive" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 06:16:57 UTC 25.3K followers, 1755 engagements
"Macro analysts be like my barber just raised price by $X and the only logical conclusion is goddamn Chinese overcapacity" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-20 00:02:33 UTC 25.3K followers, 3077 engagements
"4 Regions like the "roof of the world" in Tibet were also historically poor because of the extreme mountainous terrain. But massive hydro projects like this tap into these extremes (in this case a massive elevation drop making it ideal for hydro power)" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 06:56:00 UTC 25.3K followers, 6503 engagements
"Its so jarring when macro folks tell you politically entrenched elites prevented China from pushing through structural reform and then you see numbers like this:" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 23:29:55 UTC 25.3K followers, 39.4K engagements
"Renewables (especially solar) also lends itself more to modern trends of digitalization robotics and automation. You already have automated near-lights-out factories producing the key components required to deploy solar 24/7. Automation technology has reached point of maturity where it is already maintaining installed infrastructure with little human intervention 👇. Its only a matter of time before other aspects of building out incremental greenfield solar are also automated" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 06:15:03 UTC 25.3K followers, 2762 engagements
"@off_by_one_ @xh_andrea The technology and most of the vendors are Taiwan based anyway Which means that it didnt add much incremental value-add to Chinas economy as the gross export figures implied; ergo less adjustment required" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 09:19:27 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"One under-appreciated positive aspect of solar PV wind and battery storage is that you can add incremental energy in bite-sized chunks in a very short amount of time. Just add another wind turbine a block of solar panels or another battery array to an existing project. It makes it much easier to quickly ramp up supply to meet incremental power demand. Whereas with nuclear hydro coal and CCGT you have to add in large bite sizes (100-1 GW+) with significant (multi-year) lead time for construction (which means higher capitalized interest load)" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-19 12:11:06 UTC 25.3K followers, 5623 engagements
"Siberias aggregate energy resources are the equivalent of like six weeks of work** blanketing the Gobi Desert with solar PV so why would this compel Beijing to antagonize its nuclear-armed neighbor ** hyperbole but you get the point" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-19 11:39:46 UTC 25.3K followers, 13.7K engagements
"This means that the U.S. current account deficit needs to be adjusted by this stock-based compensation effect when compared to historical current account balances when stock-based compensation wasnt such a large component of employee compensation" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 03:05:43 UTC 25.3K followers, 1145 engagements
"@joequant @robin_j_brooks Supply of smartphones is not elastic the process to diversify iPhones out of China has been going on for X years and it is not even 1/4th done. Samsung took years to move its factories to Vietnam" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 23:47:18 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"1 Historically deserts were barren inhospitable places that could not support much biological life. Now solar PV infrastructure can turn non-productive desert land into a highly productive energy producing region" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 06:55:58 UTC 25.3K followers, 18.1K engagements
"@zephyr_z9 @okaythenme @brickroad7 X. Its Microsoft Explorer / Netscape redux for the AI era. Funnily enough Microsoft is one of the incumbents doing it again. Probably a lesson here. X. AI (especially generative) like the Internet will be bifurcated with China its own category" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 07:46:15 UTC 25.3K followers, 1711 engagements
"Approximation of its scale can be calculated by attribution of total stock-based compensation earned by U.S. employees based on share of foreign revenue. Quick sanity check on LLM shows how SBC has risen by hundreds of billions over the last X decades. The BoP adjustment effect would be based on some % of this amount based on foreign revenue/earnings as a share of total revenue/earnings" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 03:27:21 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"In this thread I explain the impact of changing capital mix from shorter to longer-lived assets arithmetically skews any calculation involving GDP. The G in GDP stands for gross and reflects the fact that GDP doesnt take into account depreciation (whether real or accounting)" @GlennLuk on X 2023-12-24 12:39:41 UTC 25.3K followers, 5431 engagements
"Because U.S. employees are getting a disproportionate share of new stock issuance as part of their compensation recurring deficit of stock sales to foreign entities that shows up on the capital account does not actually result in aggregate foreign ownership of U.S. equities rising" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 03:09:06 UTC 25.3K followers, 1079 engagements
"Some interesting figures from the livestream about just how much was stolen from the Malaysian public: Bradley estimates that Jho Low individually stole $2.5B of the total $7.65B stolen from 1MDB" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-19 07:49:07 UTC 25.3K followers, 3306 engagements
"One way to conceptualize these large $10-100B+ renewable energy infrastructure projects is by thinking of them as unlocking some massive oil or gas discovery (e.g. Sakhalin) except with the added benefit of being a lot cleaner. The cost of unlocking these discoveries is the hard work of infrastructure construction. But once these massive works are complete with the right level of maintenance they can generate clean energy as long as the sun still shines" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-20 06:56:47 UTC 25.3K followers, 1618 engagements
"First time driving in a Luxgen EV. Model n7 which is the one from the Luxgen/Hon Hai joint venture. Luxgen is the main local car brand in Taiwan. Since it lacks scale it often partners with more established carmakers for critical tech like engines e.g. Dongfeng" @GlennLuk on X 2025-06-29 01:52:40 UTC 25.3K followers, 2497 engagements
"Jho Low sighting: living in Shanghai under assumed name Constantinos Achilles Veis 😂 What would your fake 5-star fugitive name be Mine would be McLovin Zhou-Suzuki" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-19 05:58:59 UTC 25.3K followers, 17.4K engagements
"Yes China could support a large population based on large natural endowments by 17th and 18th century standards but the context of thread is recent modern history and per capita endowments. That said I can agree that China has decent (but not ludicrous) coal reserves relative to its population" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 11:18:03 UTC 25.3K followers, 3008 engagements
"Its harder to visualize the potential demand-side impact on the buyer but the loss in income is just as real. By artificially restricting demand (e.g. through tariffs) product costs rise which means all things equal the buyer can afford fewer of those goods. This is the same as saying real income has declined driven by the productivity loss of being forced to switch to a higher-cost overseas supplier" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 08:57:11 UTC 25.3K followers, 1472 engagements
"@matthewswspence U.S. was already a high-income country before it became a dominant oil producer. Oil just *helped make it into a superpower (having oil when others dont is a huge strategic advantage as Japan and Germany FA and FO)" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 15:56:13 UTC 25.3K followers, XX engagements
"One can even argue that the calculations above are conservative because they assume finite useful lives when these projects could easily be maintained (or upgraded in the case of solar PV) into perpetuity" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-20 06:55:31 UTC 25.3K followers, 1607 engagements
"Another key difference between oil (and fossil fuels more broadly) and renewables is centralization. Fossil fuel extraction and related useful energy production (like refineries and power plants) are more efficient when deployed on a centralized basis. And while there are certain aspects of clean energy value chain that favor centralization (like production of solar panels) the infrastructure deployment itself is highly decentralized" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 05:51:29 UTC 25.3K followers, 1564 engagements
"Taiwan Taxicab Chronicles: Mr. Yu former CNC machine worker. I am going to channel @pretentiouswhat and share my own recent taxi conversation. I had a relatively long ride this morning as I had to drop the kids off at various activities and then go to the hospital again. Mr. Yu picks me up at our serviced apartment in Xitun () at 8:40am" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-16 05:24:30 UTC 25.3K followers, 13K engagements
"5 China is not blessed with significant petroleum and natural gas reserves relative to its huge population. But the infrastructure-driven push to electrify transportation (e.g. electric vehicles HSR local metro) blunts these natural disadvantages" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 06:56:01 UTC 25.3K followers, 6739 engagements
"@patwayyy Not arable land which is what has historically counted" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 07:13:11 UTC 25.3K followers, 1106 engagements
"When referencing "God-given natural endowments" I am clearly discussing modern Chinese history in this thread not the factors that gave rise to pre-modern Chinese civilization hundreds/thousands of years ago" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 03:19:44 UTC 25.3K followers, 3110 engagements
"Follow-up: Tesla full-year automotive margin (ex-ZEV) came in lower than my forecast at 15%" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-24 01:33:26 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"This is generation equivalent of X GW traditional baseload coal plant running at XX% capacity factor. @ $800/kW upfront capital cost of the coal plant would be XX% of the 29B price tag. Once you factor in fuel costs & pollution economics are quite competitive" @GlennLuk on X 2024-02-28 19:17:01 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Besides the plummeting cost curve the other truly disruptive aspect of solar PV wind and batteries is how it decentralizes energy production. You can add incremental power generation in digestible bite-sized chunks to remote locations without having to first build high fixed cost distribution infrastructure like roads (for CNG) pipelines (for natural gas) and high-voltage transmission lines (for power from centralized production). Think about how transformative this is for poor undeveloped countries that have historically been fossil fuel poor or for regions inside countries that have not yet" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-19 12:28:42 UTC 25.3K followers, 4892 engagements
"I dont have a sense of the relative risk of owning vs renting right now. But I can say Oracles probably has financial werewithal to support such investment more than OpenAI which has an impact on the inherent risk embedded in Oracle equity vs OpenAI equity which is what I am trying to focus on here" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 03:41:46 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Back in Taichung - 12-minute metro ride from Taoyuan Airport to Taoyuan HSR station (NT35 per person) - 36-minute HSR ride to Taichung HSR (NT540 per adult ticket) - 15-minute taxi ride to service apartment (NT280) - Friendly welcome from staff who remembered us from our 2020-21 stay ( ) Feels like coming home" @GlennLuk on X 2025-06-28 04:54:03 UTC 25.3K followers, 11.8K engagements
"@kejimao Have they expressly mentioned Yajiang as part of EDWC or building out datacenter or is this just conjecture for now" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-20 01:14:16 UTC 25.3K followers, 2975 engagements
"@kejimao More conjecture: The other showcase aspect of the Yajiang project will be the ultra-large-scale demonstration of autonomous drone transport for equipment and materials transport given the elevation and rough terrain - and related productivity impacts in extreme conditions" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-20 01:17:32 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"With the liquidity spigots were largely shutdown these balance sheets were in a sense "frozen" . . providing Beijing policymakers a period of time to undergo detailed audit-like work of reviewing tens of thousands of projects and financial statements to diagnose the issues . . with the ultimate objective of coming up workable solutions to resolve accumulated bad or under-performing assets and their associated debts (whether formal loans/bonds or informal abnormal working capital liabilities)" @GlennLuk on X 2025-03-05 15:18:48 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"The supporting evidence for these theories is straightforward and should theoretically get easier to locate over time. If China is understating its current account surplus to the tune of hundreds of billions a year over time there should be an accumulating statistical distortion in its offshore holdings. After more than X years these distortions should be very large (multiple trillions) and increasingly noticeable in counterparty accounts. It is reasonable to ask for basic evidence of this" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-14 20:10:14 UTC 25.3K followers, 1910 engagements
"@bookwormengr But thats low in per capita terms which is what determines poverty vs. wealth. China produces more natural gas than Qatar but it isnt enough to make 1.4B productive at dully developed levels whereas it is enough to make Qatari citizens among the richest on the planet" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 02:58:08 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"China has been the most populated region of the world for millennia for a reason Why are you talking about millennia Did I talk about millennia I thought I was very specific. If you want to talk about how China became a big powerful country-civilization through millennia because of fertile silt from the Yellow River go right ahead but dont QT me" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 15:14:16 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@joequant @robin_j_brooks I just go back to thinking it is just hard to model the non-deterministic system that is our global economy" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 00:37:51 UTC 25.3K followers, XX engagements
"@ChefMiew @TonamiPlayman No reason why HK wouldnt be connected or itd be a quick transfer from maglev to HSR" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-10 05:18:38 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Thats still more agricultural workers retiring. I put workers in quotes because this is more a reflection of non-productive excess workforce that has not yet been able to be absorbed into the modern workforce. Chinas true/relevant unemployment rate was never its official urban unemployment rate but this excess non-productive labor on the farms" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 03:05:16 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"This multi-decade trend was driven by: - Sectoral shift to tech/IP/branded companies whose value is disproportionately weighted to intangible assets - Shift to stock-based compensation - International tax optimization" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 03:22:40 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Some indication that the Communists in Beijing just might have read Smith Ricardo et al. and understand intra-national comparative advantage (i.e. between regions) and the value of economic specialization and tech/industrial clustering. Also indicates clear recognition of inconsistency in institutional competence especially at lower levels of government. Xi is like a referee blowing the whistle signaling the end of this round in the tournament where it is time for the losers to bow out (cut off support) and the winners to move on the next round (and get more resources). This is a part of" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-18 06:32:01 UTC 25.3K followers, 16.8K engagements
"First they came for Hungary and I did not speak out because I was not Hungarian. Then they came for the Bulgarians and I did not speak out because I am not fond of tripe soup. Then they came for Paraguay and I did not speak out because I keep getting it mixed up with Bolivia. Then they came for Nauru and there was no one left to speak for Nauru but me. #SilentNoLonger #YouCrossedTheLineBuster #IHaveMoreFollowersThan @Republic_Nauru" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-20 00:46:15 UTC 25.3K followers, 1822 engagements
"Its easy to visualize supply-side economic impact from demand disruption. Buyer buys fewer goods which lowers incomes for the supplier. Supplier has less revenue to pay workers or fewer profits to spend in the local economy" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 08:44:18 UTC 25.3K followers, 1211 engagements
"* Addendum: Per capita matters Lower East Side edition Poverty Not poverty" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 03:04:04 UTC 25.3K followers, 1960 engagements
"SAIC Motors makes a much lower gross margin on its non-China sales compared to its China sales" @GlennLuk on X 2025-05-30 12:48:26 UTC 25.3K followers, 7739 engagements
"@paulmidler I suppose we can pay attention to what Apple officially says about the book and claims therein" @GlennLuk on X 2025-05-22 14:32:11 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"It just dawned on me how Chinas rare earths restrictions against Japan in 2010 may have indirectly contributed to Japan Inc. prioritizing hydrogen / fuel cell cars over electric vehicles powered by electric motors" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-11 04:50:35 UTC 25.3K followers, 82.2K engagements
"You specified national and brought up SOEs not me. EV charging infrastructure would count. ESS both batteries and pumped storage. UHV transmission. Solar. Wind. Hydro. Local transport infrastructure (those bridges and tunnels) metro. National networks like HSR. These make up the bulk of the orange infrastructure category below" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 08:26:21 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"If you ever played Civilization 👇 is the equivalent of discovering tech that allows you to upgrade a desert tile into an energy-producing one. Affordable solar PV production has the same effect as discovering oil in the Middle East and then multiplying it by 10x" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 05:21:00 UTC 25.3K followers, 9314 engagements
"I think foreigners especially Americans do not fully appreciate China's predilection for large capital-intensive infrastructure projects because most do not know what it was like to live in a place starved of God-given natural endowments" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 06:55:56 UTC 25.3K followers, 53.4K engagements
"The value of infrastructure rises based on the productivity of the economy. So increases in productivity increase new opportunities to deploy new infrastructure. There seems to be a particularly deep well of projects (tens of trillions) just to transition from a fossil fuel based to clean energy / electricity-based economic for example" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-22 07:52:01 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@matthewswspence @gonglei89 Biggest yes but I am not sure I agree objectively the most aggressive Taiwan is a lot more aggressive by many metrics just look at CA surplus as a % of GDP" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 01:45:40 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Can I say something without everyone getting mad" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-20 05:21:15 UTC 25.3K followers, 23.5K engagements
"Agree China got to where it was with the beneficiary of these large resource endowments. But then the game changed and fossil fuels mattered much more starting in the 19th with coal and into the 20th century (especially petroleum). That is the context its modern institutions economy and what I argue is its predilection for capital-intensive development I discuss in the thread" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 11:39:43 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Theres this stubborn idea linked to the structural overcapacity narrative that the Chinese car sector isnt profitable. The people making these claims are either unwilling or incapable of reading financial statements" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-18 12:40:03 UTC 25.3K followers, 1390 engagements
"Auto sector industry revenue and profits in China h/t @nborstsf" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-18 12:19:39 UTC 25.3K followers, 3567 engagements
"While Beijing underwent the review process . . LGFVs could tap into new credit mainly to refinance old credit like the ST/MT bank loans that were maturing. This is the "fiscal consolidation" brought up in this thread. But it did not represent new incremental liquidity as Beijing wanted to limit further accumulation of bad assets" @GlennLuk on X 2025-03-05 15:18:48 UTC 25.3K followers, XXX engagements
"First the data: Very clear the changing mix of capital investment from shorter-lived factory machine type assets (business) to housing and infrastructure over the past XX years" @GlennLuk on X 2023-12-24 12:37:09 UTC 25.3K followers, 5931 engagements
"I had calculated XX km2 per GW of solar PV but that was conservative because those existing projects aren't fully built out. I think this LLM estimate is closer to the mark: 10-14 km2 per GW" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 05:59:35 UTC 25.3K followers, 1750 engagements
"The reported massive pay packages for OpenAI researchers were largely due to having to replace the in-the-money equity packages they had to walk away from at OpenAI. But I wonder whether risky financial bets like 👇 also factored into the decisions to walk away. META equity package is ostensibly less risky than OpenAI equity. Would one rather have an XX% chance at a range between $80-120M or a heads/tails coin flip of $X or $200M I expect many would choose the former even if expected value is higher with the latter" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 03:29:19 UTC 25.3K followers, 5865 engagements
"Anyway just to tie it to the intended theme of the thread I think it was quite predictable for the U.S. to double down on what it is comfortable with i.e. natural endowments (fossil fuels) and push back from renewables (even though ironically U.S. is also relatively well-endowed with natural solar PV and wind potential). And I think its a major strategic mistake in the long run" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-21 16:15:01 UTC 25.3K followers, XX engagements
"@bostromsutopia It takes time to ramp up production capacity to physically deploy it to connect it to the grid to absorb it with new demand etc. Just like it took 40-50 years to develop Middle East oil fields" @GlennLuk on X 2025-07-23 05:57:32 UTC 25.3K followers, XX engagements