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# ![@GlennLuk Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::111782814.png) @GlennLuk Glenn

Glenn posts on X about china, countries, investment, asml the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::111782814/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX +370%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +76%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX -XX%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +38%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::111782814/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX +46%
- X Month XXX +23%
- X Months XXXXX -XX%
- X Year XXXXX +3.70%

### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::111782814/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXXX +1.60%
- X Month XXXXXX +2.60%
- X Months XXXXXX +9.20%
- X Year XXXXXX +78%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::111782814/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/influence)
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**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries)  #7802 [finance](/list/finance)  XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXX% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  XXX% [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  XXXX% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[china](/topic/china) #388, [countries](/topic/countries) #1245, [investment](/topic/investment) #2008, [asml](/topic/asml) #4, [geely](/topic/geely) #92, [has been](/topic/has-been) 0.48%, [huawei](/topic/huawei) #150, [byd](/topic/byd) #469, [accounting](/topic/accounting) #408, [longterm](/topic/longterm) #469

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@joequant](/creator/undefined) [@gonglei89](/creator/undefined) [@bauhiniacapital](/creator/undefined) [@tonamiplayman](/creator/undefined) [@teortaxestex](/creator/undefined) [@matthewswspence](/creator/undefined) [@brad_setser](/creator/undefined) [@wrenevans217208](/creator/undefined) [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@hspekingpanda](/creator/undefined) [@zephyrz9](/creator/undefined) [@tphuang](/creator/undefined) [@pseudoerasmus](/creator/undefined) [@thepoliecon](/creator/undefined) [@dawn2042](/creator/undefined) [@pretentiouswhat](/creator/undefined) [@stevehou0](/creator/undefined) [@jz281c](/creator/undefined) [@hongshenzhu](/creator/undefined) [@waldmenschen](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla)
### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::111782814/posts)
---
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"@Marxistcham I dont think its any different from others. TSMC was notable for always keeping the latest gen technology at home and opening up plants outside Taiwan that are 2-4 generations behind. Audi did not use their most powerful engines for the China market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978416701667479759) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T11:04Z 26.6K followers, XX engagements


"@yishan Between ethanol and biofuel its clear that these are just fit leaf check marks to meet poorly designed environmental mandates. Its actually easier to just synthesize clean fuel now but some people seem to go *out of their way* to avoid helping the environment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978422684791828535) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T11:28Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"There have been some other past threads on this but I now notice that Alex's posts have been deleted. Here is one from a year ago: Anyway I think Alex is making unreasonable outlier assumptions on one of the key support pillars for his hypothesis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094345182994485) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 2459 engagements


"This illustrates just how much income U.S. MNCs are making in China enough to offset the bilateral trade deficit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094355861651557) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 2103 engagements


"@benbawan This is going to cause major major headaches for their automotive and industrial customers that sell into the U.S. or markets potentially subject to the Entity List rules as they are no longer going to be able to purchase from Wingtech/Nexperia China without a waiver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978447550173646960) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T13:07Z 26.6K followers, 2131 engagements


"@StevenGlinert EUV path more likely to come from non-SMIC foundry. SMIC is no longer the national foundry champion. Huawei (affiliate) has taken up that banner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979336926848327723) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T00:01Z 26.6K followers, 2192 engagements


"I hear over and over again how there are "100-150" Chinese EV firms and "only a handful are profitable". This is BS and highly misleading. The people who cite these figures can never seem to name even a fraction of these firms . . because they are mindless parrots who are unwilling or incapable of doing their own work to check out basic factual claims or provide highly relevant context"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1971913037763252269) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-09-27T12:21Z 26.6K followers, 88.7K engagements


"As an incumbent Geely also sells traditional ICE vehicles. Some have used this to exclude Geely as a "profitable EV maker". But EVs now make up 3/5ths of its sales. At this point it is more an EV than ICE company so it should count as one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1971913047066247678) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-09-27T12:21Z 26.6K followers, 11.8K engagements


"By my count there are now at least X profitable EV makers selling in China by the end of this year. BYD Tesla (China only) Li Auto Seres Leapmotor Chery Chang'an and Geely Auto. On top of this you have CATL and Huawei which extract economics at the highly profitable battery and tech/software segments of the value chain respectively. These count because if these firms did not exist as independent entities those economics would simply flow to other carmakers. Xpeng Xiaomi SAIC GWM are also either already profitable on their EV operations or close"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1971913049209458931) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-09-27T12:21Z 26.6K followers, 14K engagements


"@tphuang Your call on Li Auto last year this time was spot on. The other notable thing about Xiaomi is that automotive gross margin is now in the XX% range in Q2. And this is only going to ramp with YU7 ramping. Xiaomi's auto division will be profitable in 2026 maybe even by this Q4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1973363694424998165) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-01T12:25Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


""Measured in terms of primary energy" This was obvious when you saw coal XX PWh (total power demand in China is XX PWh). These figures include heat loss from combustion. It's like accounting for heat loss from fusion energy produced at source (the sun) for solar/wind power"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1976241395330367948) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-09T11:00Z 26.6K followers, 21.5K engagements


"@PAstynome Yep - clear rise in alternative non-regulated markets (crypto/bitcoin) and gambling (fanduel/draftkings)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1977701851425395057) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-13T11:43Z 26.6K followers, 3204 engagements


"1) Interesting how many folks who were pikachuface.jpg shocked at the Chinese rare earths restrictions after having ignored the 9/29 BIS modifications framing them first as "escalatory" and later as an "overreach" . are now framing this or not framing it at all e.g. mostly ignoring it as if it should be perceived as nbd non-event. 2) Very high likelihood that China will reciprocate prior to APEC; including simply cancelling the planned Xi-Trump meeting. This was eminently foreseeable on the escalation pathway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1977784989166043426) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-13T17:14Z 26.6K followers, 49.4K engagements


"Ratio'ed in own feed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1977789096853430443) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-13T17:30Z 26.6K followers, 6686 engagements


"High likelihood of finding out soon that to secure domestic supply without access to the latest Chinese IP know-how and specialized equipment we are going to have to "brute force" it i.e. starting from scratch similar to where China was XX years ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978126118285721834) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T15:49Z 26.6K followers, 3401 engagements


"We don't need Chinese idioms to pierce the mystical veil. China's really not that hard to read on the trade/tech war: It laid out its position very clearly and directly in April and its reactions/responses have been highly predictable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978141218627280947) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T16:49Z 26.6K followers, 28.8K engagements


"The board is controlled by the controlling shareholder under normal circumstances and dividends/repatriation are perfunctory and non-controversial. The specific governance layer was added as a result Entity. If Entity existed back then Wingtech would have never agreed to send $3B to NXP to acquire the business. So this all goes back to Entity however much you want to use the fig leaf of legal language cover to obfuscate. It's certainly not going to convice Beijing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978452249585037535) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T13:25Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"1. Funds would likely have been transferred out the normal way if the special layer of corporate governance to Nexperia NV had not not been put into effect ex post facto due to Entity Rules. X. There is no normal circumstance where companies are subject to nationalization/takeover due to "inappropriate inter-company fund transfers." That is extremely disproportionate action that only makes sense because of the geopolitical context"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978453795576095027) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T13:31Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"What other precedents / examples of companies in The Netherlands that were seized/nationalized solely on the basis of "improper transfers" and with this timetable To imply/say this is a normal everyday thing that would have happened without the geopolitical backdrop is disingenous / obfuscation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978484711312740609) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T15:34Z 26.6K followers, 3167 engagements


"That XX% to me would be an absolute theoretical limit given how "Three Red Lines" clamped down on new asset formation (and associated malinvestment) how the LT nature of most LGFV assets need time to mature naturally and general rising income levels in the broad economy which support underlying usage/absorption of the assets sitting in LGFVs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978805187352416394) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:48Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"First the data: Very clear the changing mix of capital investment from shorter-lived factory machine type assets (business) to housing and infrastructure over the past XX years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1738901626323120478) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2023-12-24T12:37Z 26.6K followers, 6026 engagements


"@zephyr_z9 Vast majority of this will be in the form of debt/lending. Also likely over 10+ year period"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1977767439174685180) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-13T16:04Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"New growth drivers are other areas like tech/AI advanced manufacturing biotech healthcare etc. which not only benefit from freed-up workforce from the real estate sector but also the long-term structural shift to a more college-educated workforce"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978802835039912316) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:38Z 26.6K followers, 2078 engagements


"@zephyr_z9 Would really want to understand just how/whether BABA's investments in AI are what is driving market share gains in delivery - and whether Meituan's investment in LLMs was a belated realization of that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979171848383275164) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T13:05Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@CNMNguyen @tomhajjar Vietnam has been the most aggressive / successful out of the ASEAN countries attracting FDI and corresponding tech/knowledge transfer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979303110112862383) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T21:46Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Elementary chart reading skills would tell you that the US has systematically "fallen in love" with Vietnamese goods over the last XX years. If you change the y-axis to logarithmic and flatten seasonality Vietnam's line is virtually straight with a bump in 2008-9 and 2020-22"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1977734117740462194) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-13T13:52Z 26.6K followers, 20.9K engagements


"Alex talks about the "Employment Bomb" but the reality is that the real estate sector has already gone through the bulk of the structural correction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978800846075814005) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:31Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"No. The reason why it has a monopoly today is because China has: (i) made significant technology and process advances that effectively isolate/mitigate the effects of the environmental damage concentrated in the up/midstream mining and separation phases on society and (ii) invested in human capital / specialized manufacturing equipment and optimized steps in the downstream processing stages including deep integration with end-product manufacturing (e.g. permanent magnets which make up the bulk of use cases by economic value) Whether simply ignorance or worse inability to recognize e.g. by"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978120677585478103) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T15:28Z 26.6K followers, 49.3K engagements


"In another similar-sized tech/industrial sector NEVs I estimate the cumulative industrial subsidies since 2009 at $200B by Y/E 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979145539171020992) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T11:20Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"The subsidies represent the totality of fiscal industrial policy support that central and local governments in China have poured into the NEV sector which is now profitable (and thus self-sustaining) on a go-forward basis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979145900610969734) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T11:22Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Critical components of chip capacity buildout like the physical datacenters wires networking and supporting power infrastructure (both onsite the transmission grid and upstream electricity generation) are all mature and SOTA in China and do not require subsidies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979146318493733019) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T11:23Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@StevenGlinert Huawei affiliate will be an independent foundry model. Maybe Huawei will also have an internal advanced node fab but I dont know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979339243161031146) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T00:10Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Note: Ive never made this accusation and been clear that Lithos mental block is the man with the hammer syndrome; and specifically the blind spot on China. This is quite common and I see this all the time. SemiAnalysis also had this hole before but to its credit it appears to be investing in building the team to rectify and it shows in their more recent work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979493663106310419) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T10:24Z 26.6K followers, 4571 engagements


"@aphysicist Beating ASML/TSMC = achieving EUV (HVP)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979618678607085657) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T18:40Z 26.6K followers, 2334 engagements


"@gonglei89 Like he has done in prior posts @lithos_graphein effectively lays out his thesis of why others will never be able to catch up to ASML in lithography"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979669640491216898) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T22:03Z 26.6K followers, 1694 engagements


"My sense is that the focus on EUV lithography has taken on religious undertones and I am afraid it risks leaving the collective West psychologically unprepared. I am actually quite worried that if China achieves another unexpected breakthrough the resulting disappointment would be devastating and even more damaging than its prior breakthroughs driven by the perception of EUV as the technology "last stand""  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979679573324263609) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T22:42Z 26.6K followers, 93.1K engagements


"@gonglei89 Yeah I think it's hard to say. I think in the world of commercial machines (that make things) EUV is objectively at the pinnacle. Advanced jet engines are at their pinnacle but in another category. And at this point it's like comparing Michael Jordan to Shohei Ohtani"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979681605359915378) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T22:50Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"This is compelling evidence that getting depreciation rates correct (and recognizing changing capital mix) has a major impact on capital stock TFP and the Solow growth accounting model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1752187044774961485) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2024-01-30T04:28Z 26.6K followers, 8177 engagements


"The "overinvestment" thesis carries a rather elitist conceit: that one billion Chinese people at this current standard of living (or below) don't deserve or should delay full development. You simply cannot move beyond this standard without significant gross capital formation i.e. meaning vast quantities of concrete steel energy and construction investment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1972605600929374663) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-09-29T10:13Z 26.6K followers, 115K engagements


"The circularity here is making my head hurt. "The consensus is that it's exploiting its monopoly position but the deeper story is that its exporters are hurting badly so China has to go for broke" Source: Robin Brooks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978441619431960764) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T12:43Z 26.6K followers, 18.7K engagements


"Bytedance daily token update 30T per day on its Volcano platform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978781633613295752) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T11:14Z 26.6K followers, 1555 engagements


"@Wije73381133 @lithos_graphein STEM expertise right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979018452519067763) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T02:55Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@Wije73381133 @lithos_graphein Imagine Hangzhou Hefei Wuhan Nanjing Shanghai Shenzhen Chengdu and Xian are all countries instead of cities. Now China has a bunch of specialized STEM expertise from many different countries to draw on. Dont know what the relevance of expertise of many countries here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979019420363039161) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T02:59Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@Wije73381133 @lithos_graphein Are you going to say because it is a bunch of little countries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979019786915893659) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T03:01Z 26.6K followers, XX engagements


"@evrgn11112231 But China appears to be very close to figuring it out for domestic DUV scanner that can produce at X nm which is close to SOTA (for DUV) which while not quite as complex as EUV is also no cake walk. So is there something special about EUV that puts it out of reach"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979332741826252983) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T23:44Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"This is true. China's rare earths supply can be replaced. But you can say the same thing about advanced chipmaking. Thus more relevant question is: Will the U.S. be able to secure rare earths processing capacity before China develops self-sufficiency in advanced node chips"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1915416723307597972) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-04-24T14:45Z 26.6K followers, 151.7K engagements


"Some emerging 2025 themes in China's EV sector: BYD struggling to maintain growth momentum. This appears to be related to rising competition from its direct competitors in the "mass market affordable" class particularly Geely Leapmotor and Chery. Li Auto which has been one of the early success stories is struggling due to new competition entering their core MPV space. In the premium segment Xpeng and Xiaomi have the most momentum battling not only with Tesla but Huawei's HIMA lineup of SOE car brands"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1962877970055385259) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-09-02T13:59Z 26.6K followers, 43.5K engagements


"Here is the latest update on my analysis on the profitability of China's NEV sector. It updates for various 1H financial and volume updates by key carmakers like BYD Geely Xiaomi Xpeng and Leapmotor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1973086181505020372) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-09-30T18:02Z 26.6K followers, 15.8K engagements


"Chinese-made EVs have even higher market share in Thailand Indonesia and Brazil than China mainly driven by mass-market models. Teslas by far the largest non-Chinese EV sold in China are priced at a premium and not as affordable for middle class buyers in developing markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1975889649617780848) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-08T11:42Z 26.6K followers, 25.9K engagements


"Google token update now 43T per day up 4x from just a few months ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1976344553113391462) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-09T17:50Z 26.6K followers, 3604 engagements


"Bringing up ethane and high purity quartz is revealingly grasping at straws. Advanced SME was the trump card and it was played early. China is like Toby in The Office calling Michael who had bluffed and gone all-in on the first hand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1977328307181105577) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-12T10:59Z 26.6K followers, 13.4K engagements


"Addendum: This violently ends the short-lived fantasy that there was no linkage between the 9/29 BIS entity rule modification and the Nexperia takeover by explicitly linking the two"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978061918658081236) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T11:34Z 26.6K followers, 7194 engagements


"That was quick. Beijing responds within XX hours restricting exports of its chips fabricated in its China fabs. This is likely to draw in more countries (Germany Philippines Malysia UK) as its operations span the globe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978065179242897465) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T11:47Z 26.6K followers, 10.2K engagements


"It's always helpful to understand the "variant view" and I'd encourage you to read Alex's for his. I DM'ed him why I thought this one was flawed in supporting the prediction of a 2027-2030 crisis point. Here are the key points: X Systemic risk from the property and LGFV sector have been contained X American MNCs make more money off China than vice versa X There are more vulnerabilities beyond rare earths X Assumption of stasis in China's efforts to catch-up in its areas of vulnerability (advanced chips global financial system) X Last but probably most significantly: ignoring what have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094327348785615) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 53.7K engagements


"2 American MNCs make more money off China than vice versa Alex brings up the difference in net asset balance ($2.5T for China $500B for the US) but I would argue that it's not asset values that matter but the lost income on those assets. The reality is that China makes a relatively paltry return on its US-exposed asset portfolio because it is mainly locked up in low-return USTs and equities while U.S. investment in China is locked into high-return FDI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094349905785069) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 1885 engagements


"U.S. MNCs make very high RoIC on relatively low onshore FDI investment in China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094353038946384) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 2187 engagements


"So excluded from the U.S. asset number is the amount of Fortune 1000 market cap that can be directly attributed to operating income made off selling to the China market. So characterizing the U.S. as having disproportionate leverage on this vector is inaccurate. Both countries will be hurt rather proportionately if escalation gets to this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094359292641579) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 1567 engagements


"To characterize the primary reason for the takeover as "financial misconduct" ignoring that the the "financial misconduct" was directly linked to Wingtech's addition to the Entity List is highly misleading and disingenuous"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978434313227043084) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T12:14Z 26.6K followers, 2426 engagements


"Companies that have wholly owned subsidiaries can typically appoint directors and indirectly executvies. The owners generally have unrestricted access to funds. Wingtech paid $3B+ in 2018 for that right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978434315005333703) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T12:14Z 26.6K followers, 3669 engagements


"If they are unable to obtain a waiver they will have to then "design in" an alternative chip (e.g. from Broadcom) for their products (again often mature products) to be able to continue selling. Given the enhanced safety requirements of automotive/industrial/power the effort here will be similar to redesigning the product from scratch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978449344291389897) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T13:14Z 26.6K followers, 1992 engagements


"Another signal/indicator that Chinese fabs/foundries are gaining confidence in viability of domestic lithography solutions as replacements for the remaining (more mature) product lines ASML is allowed to sell to China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978466259361497449) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T14:21Z 26.6K followers, 38.1K engagements


"To beat China the U.S. needs to paradoxically stop focusing on beating China. And instead focus on being the best version of itself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978563550957228285) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T20:48Z 26.6K followers, 383.2K engagements


"Massive solar deployments convert erstwhile barren land with minimal economic value into some of the most productive real estate in the country"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978625292370432428) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T00:53Z 26.6K followers, 15.3K engagements


"First notice from earlier the analysis/framework keeps changing. The writedowns figure is now $6.9T. LGFV loan loss estimates have ballooned from $1.5T to $2.8T. Mortgages have been replaced with "property-collateralized corporate""  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978784510092116432) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T11:26Z 26.6K followers, 1421 engagements


"Second even high-level credit analysis breaks up recovery rate into two key components (NPL rate and asset recovery rate) because these are often more observable and thus easier to analyze. This is a much improved framework that can be sanity checked against outside numbers:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978785536094437603) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T11:30Z 26.6K followers, 1020 engagements


"That is why the nature of the collateral is also important. The credit boom in China the last two decades has been underpinned by the formation of long-term assets like buildings highways bridges and railway that have very long useful lives. They are hard tangible assets which usually have fairly high asset recovery rates (especially if measured against debt with equity taking the brunt of the losses)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978790646908416349) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T11:50Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"More broadly I fundamentally disagree with this characterization of local governments being incentivized having free rein to do anything they wanted and "GDP at all costs" and hyperbolic descriptions of SOEs bearing unlimited financial losses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978797433522962890) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:17Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"This reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of China's administrative bureaucracy. The central gov't ultimately played the "disciplining" role for local governments. China's system of "checks and balances" is the central vs. local government dynamic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978797688792420632) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:18Z 26.6K followers, 1289 engagements


"But these flaws do not take away from the fundamental concept that there are checks and balances in China's large bureaucracy. Local government officials have incentives to perform and for a long time that was measured in GDP growth. But central government officials incentives are to make sure that the GDP growth is accurate and high-quality. And they have tools to enforce this like control over local government budgets and various levers via national SOEs and organizations like NDRC (which often have their own central vs. local matrix organizational structures)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978799334377345248) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:25Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"The cottage industry of people whose main objectives seems to be to underestimate or otherwise downplay China's real achievements are actually very harmful to the long-term strategic interests of the country. Better to over-estimate than under-"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978810898413207620) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T13:10Z 26.6K followers, 2706 engagements


"Indeed I've built an alternative model based on this framework (TSF correlated to accumulated capital stock) that predicts that TSF/GDP peaking in the 2027-29 time frame at XXX% (from XXX% in 2024) and then gradually declining to XXX% by 2035"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978841360414249439) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T15:12Z 26.6K followers, 1303 engagements


"The key assumptions here are: Real GDP growth of 4.6-5.1% from 2025-2030 and 3.9-4.6% from 2031 to 2035. Capital intensity (GFCF as a % of GDP) declining from XX% in 2025 to XX% by 2035"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978841362746180092) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T15:12Z 26.6K followers, 1201 engagements


"@zephyr_z9 So Google is aligned with Anthropic Who is MSFT aligned with if they are splitting from OpenAI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978847426292207893) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T15:36Z 26.6K followers, 5451 engagements


"@Wije73381133 @lithos_graphein Science includes engineering in this context. Science and engineer the shit out of things just doesnt roll off the tongue as well though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979008310914294239) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T02:15Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Major vibe shifts in Vietnam which is emerging as a serious winner out of the US-China trade war deftly straddling its geopolitical position to tremendous benefit for its 100M+ population. From @CNMNguyen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979189230317256710) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T14:14Z 26.6K followers, 57.6K engagements


"@tomhajjar @CNMNguyen It doesnt need to replace China to prosper. Also it is getting investment from Korea Japan Taiwan and other countries. China is second to Korea in cumulative FDI still IIRC. A fraction of Chinese production goes a long way in any smaller country"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979301494433419368) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T21:40Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Anon litho guy predicts no company but ASML makes an EUV machine in the next X decades at least. Im taking the under on that timeline and the over on no company. HVP X nm generation and spotting him X years. Lets see if he weasels out again like last time. This is a bet not on his knowledge of litho but on his complete blindspot on China. Its an easy bet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979313606727487706) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T22:28Z 26.6K followers, 40.6K engagements


"There's also the ongoing process of reserving/writing-off bad debt that is absorbed by the banking system. Banking revenue includes a provision for bad debts that can be used to absorb them. Statutory bank equity levels are calculated after reserves. Now there is the possibility that Chinese banks are under-reserving but regardless his analysis needs to take into account the accumulation of write-offs that have been taken and the remaining reserves built into bank equity balance sheets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979505590146678969) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T11:11Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"I would disagree. I think good-faith engagement and making an effort to understand the other side's argument improves debate especially if it can be deconstructed into objective/measurable data/analysis. I think it also helps that Alex and I have met up IRL and I find him to be very likeable in person"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979506028199747687) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T11:13Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"The new rules that The Netherlands has put in place are effectively to regain control over certain sectors. This is rolling back the "unrestricted free trade" environment that dominated the post-Cold War period. These are also rules that China itself has in place expressly to do the same thing that The Netherlands now wants. So it should not and has not to my knowledge disputed the validity of the new rules. In the Nexperia case it is primarily concerned about retroactive application of those rules"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979510911585939953) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T11:32Z 26.6K followers, 2055 engagements


"Thus the two main issues going forward are: X. How to continue to trade/invest in this new environment where countries are generally more protectionist X. How you untangle "permanent" investment deals in the past that were made in a more unrestricted trade environment in a fair way The WingTech/Nexperia case study is an example of the latter. But both are important and both issues need to be resolved over time. These frontline proxy battles can be viewed as real-time experiments on how countries are figuring out how to make adjustments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979511072249069722) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T11:33Z 26.6K followers, 2636 engagements


"Reading comprehension issue: Beating ASML is not the same as achieving EUV (at HVP) I dont expect China to catch up to ASML soon (by 2030 or even 2035). I do expect it to achieve EUV at HVP per the specs above. By 2045 Who the F knows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979623681006739916) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T19:00Z 26.6K followers, 8766 engagements


"But being wowed by the science part is not a strong defense. China has already figured out the science part @gonglei89 . Its the engineering part doing it at high enough speed/consistency/accuracy that it is still working on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979624854736298106) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T19:05Z 26.6K followers, 2166 engagements


"He claims I'm not debating in good faith yet he's clearly deflecting the core issue. Calling out deliberate avoidance is not "needlessly rude" it's necessary to move the conversation forward. Rush you are a coward. Shameful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979692084203561221) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T23:32Z 26.6K followers, 3549 engagements


"Forgot about ball bearings for ballpoint pens too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979765806134358371) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-19T04:25Z 26.6K followers, 6523 engagements