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[@GlennLuk](/creator/twitter/GlennLuk)
"These long-term trends become even easier to understand for laypeople if we venture outside the very abstract world of macroeconomics into the real world and think in terms of the key production unit in the modern economy: the worker"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980300142772461743) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T15:48Z 26.7K followers, 1072 engagements


"It's always helpful to understand the "variant view" and I'd encourage you to read Alex's for his. I DM'ed him why I thought this one was flawed in supporting the prediction of a 2027-2030 crisis point. Here are the key points: X Systemic risk from the property and LGFV sector have been contained X American MNCs make more money off China than vice versa X There are more vulnerabilities beyond rare earths X Assumption of stasis in China's efforts to catch-up in its areas of vulnerability (advanced chips global financial system) X Last but probably most significantly: ignoring what have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094327348785615) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.7K followers, 57.8K engagements


"I've been talking about "Man with the Hammer" syndrome that the late Charlie Munger loved to discuss. For Brad it's this myopic focus on one component of the economy that represents less than X% of GDP. You end up missing the forest for one tree"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980260549486092748) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T13:11Z 26.7K followers, 22.5K engagements


"Rich/developed markets are understandably wary of Chinese high-tech/value goods for many reasons including rising competition with domestic incumbents. But less developed / emerging markets have greater propensity to welcome the emergence of an alternative in high-tech/value goods to established (mainly Western) incumbents as lower-cost goods and services can speed up their own economic development and growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980267119549022719) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T13:37Z 26.7K followers, 1007 engagements


"We are now starting to see unmistakeable evidence of this significant trajectory shift in global trade and development patterns with emerging/developing countries often moving just as fast in areas where Chinese advanced tech/manufacturing has leapfrogged Western incumbents"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980267474227478713) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T13:38Z 26.7K followers, 1531 engagements


"Personal transport is one example with many emerging markets countries like Thailand and Vietnam embracing embracing next-generation EVs wiht more gusto than advanced markets like the United States and Japan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980268087153754516) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T13:41Z 26.7K followers, 2030 engagements


"I put "consumption" in quotes because all economic activity captures in GDP eventually turns into (conceptual) consumption. "Investment" is merely capitalized consumption and the difference between C and I is merely accounting in nature. That is why it's less confusing to use the term "expenditures" instead of "consumption" because this confuses people who do not pickup on the subtle differences between the layman's understanding of consumption and the GDP accounting-based definition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980299472019095796) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T15:46Z 26.7K followers, 1119 engagements


"China's economy has been undergoing continuous waves of structural reform for decades. Structural reforms often focus on the allocation of the workforce into various activities and sectors. Some activities and sectors are more capital-intensive than others. And there is a noticeable correlation between capital-intensive activities/sectors and the formal education between the workers participating in those sectors. And since policy driving structural reform takes into account the makeup of the workforce there is correlation between the makeup of the workforce and the capital-intensity of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980300996325552500) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T15:52Z 26.7K followers, 1087 engagements


"Not at all supported by the data. China far less "reliant" on net exports / balance of trade than smaller surplus countries:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980329302169391261) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T17:44Z 26.7K followers, 2919 engagements


"Would add NX itself is a flawed proxy in this context b/c it does not include trade that flows through the FDI income account (where China runs a structural deficit). So Brad's original chart itself exaggerates China's "reliance on external demand""  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980330521105514898) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T17:49Z 26.7K followers, 1131 engagements


"Further NX itself data is based on GACC/Customs data which overstates the surplus by the "factoryless manufacturing" adjustment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980330708423033248) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T17:50Z 26.7K followers, 2293 engagements


"More analysis on the history of Nexperia dating back to its days as the "Standard Products" division in Philips Semiconductor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979950487332884764) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-19T16:39Z 26.7K followers, 2226 engagements


"@jenzhuscott There should be a running scorecard for accounts where you get -XX points if you say something that is later proven to be demonstrably false and +1 point for getting predictions right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980293551624994966) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T15:22Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"But R&D and technology is not gross capital formation and thus not "capital-intensive". That's the difference between layman definitions of "investment" and "consumption" and GDP accounting definitions. The folks citing China's "low consumption" are basing it off the accounting definition but do not know why/how it differs from the layman definition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980332063111717202) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T17:55Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"This is true. China's rare earths supply can be replaced. But you can say the same thing about advanced chipmaking. Thus more relevant question is: Will the U.S. be able to secure rare earths processing capacity before China develops self-sufficiency in advanced node chips"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1915416723307597972) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-04-24T14:45Z 26.7K followers, 151.8K engagements


"Some emerging 2025 themes in China's EV sector: BYD struggling to maintain growth momentum. This appears to be related to rising competition from its direct competitors in the "mass market affordable" class particularly Geely Leapmotor and Chery. Li Auto which has been one of the early success stories is struggling due to new competition entering their core MPV space. In the premium segment Xpeng and Xiaomi have the most momentum battling not only with Tesla but Huawei's HIMA lineup of SOE car brands"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1962877970055385259) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-09-02T13:59Z 26.7K followers, 43.5K engagements


"Here is the latest update on my analysis on the profitability of China's NEV sector. It updates for various 1H financial and volume updates by key carmakers like BYD Geely Xiaomi Xpeng and Leapmotor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1973086181505020372) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-09-30T18:02Z 26.7K followers, 15.8K engagements


"Chinese-made EVs have even higher market share in Thailand Indonesia and Brazil than China mainly driven by mass-market models. Teslas by far the largest non-Chinese EV sold in China are priced at a premium and not as affordable for middle class buyers in developing markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1975889649617780848) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-08T11:42Z 26.6K followers, 25.9K engagements


"This data also helps put in perspective the relative amount of "investment" that has been allocated to different modes of transport. For example there is about $1T of invested capital in the national rail network (which includes freight)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1976254533291364383) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-09T11:52Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Meanwhile I estimate $4-5T has been "invested" in national stock of motor vehicles (353M vehicles x $12k per average car net of depreciation). I put "invested" in quotes because personal vehicles are considered "durable goods" consumption in national GDP accounting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1976254534784577865) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-09T11:52Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"Google token update now 43T per day up 4x from just a few months ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1976344553113391462) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-09T17:50Z 26.7K followers, 3610 engagements


"Bringing up ethane and high purity quartz is revealingly grasping at straws. Advanced SME was the trump card and it was played early. China is like Toby in The Office calling Michael who had bluffed and gone all-in on the first hand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1977328307181105577) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-12T10:59Z 26.7K followers, 13.4K engagements


"Elementary chart reading skills would tell you that the US has systematically "fallen in love" with Vietnamese goods over the last XX years. If you change the y-axis to logarithmic and flatten seasonality Vietnam's line is virtually straight with a bump in 2008-9 and 2020-22"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1977734117740462194) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-13T13:52Z 26.7K followers, 21K engagements


"Addendum: This violently ends the short-lived fantasy that there was no linkage between the 9/29 BIS entity rule modification and the Nexperia takeover by explicitly linking the two"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978061918658081236) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T11:34Z 26.7K followers, 7229 engagements


"There have been some other past threads on this but I now notice that Alex's posts have been deleted. Here is one from a year ago: Anyway I think Alex is making unreasonable outlier assumptions on one of the key support pillars for his hypothesis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094345182994485) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.7K followers, 2491 engagements


"2 American MNCs make more money off China than vice versa Alex brings up the difference in net asset balance ($2.5T for China $500B for the US) but I would argue that it's not asset values that matter but the lost income on those assets. The reality is that China makes a relatively paltry return on its US-exposed asset portfolio because it is mainly locked up in low-return USTs and equities while U.S. investment in China is locked into high-return FDI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094349905785069) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.7K followers, 1913 engagements


"This illustrates just how much income U.S. MNCs are making in China enough to offset the bilateral trade deficit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094355861651557) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.7K followers, 2118 engagements


"So excluded from the U.S. asset number is the amount of Fortune 1000 market cap that can be directly attributed to operating income made off selling to the China market. So characterizing the U.S. as having disproportionate leverage on this vector is inaccurate. Both countries will be hurt rather proportionately if escalation gets to this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094359292641579) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 1580 engagements


"No. The reason why it has a monopoly today is because China has: (i) made significant technology and process advances that effectively isolate/mitigate the effects of the environmental damage concentrated in the up/midstream mining and separation phases on society and (ii) invested in human capital / specialized manufacturing equipment and optimized steps in the downstream processing stages including deep integration with end-product manufacturing (e.g. permanent magnets which make up the bulk of use cases by economic value) Whether simply ignorance or worse inability to recognize e.g. by"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978120677585478103) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T15:28Z 26.6K followers, 49.4K engagements


"We don't need Chinese idioms to pierce the mystical veil. China's really not that hard to read on the trade/tech war: It laid out its position very clearly and directly in April and its reactions/responses have been highly predictable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978141218627280947) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T16:49Z 26.7K followers, 28.8K engagements


"The circularity here is making my head hurt. "The consensus is that it's exploiting its monopoly position but the deeper story is that its exporters are hurting badly so China has to go for broke" Source: Robin Brooks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978441619431960764) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T12:43Z 26.6K followers, 18.7K engagements


"Massive solar deployments convert erstwhile barren land with minimal economic value into some of the most productive real estate in the country"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978625292370432428) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T00:53Z 26.7K followers, 15.3K engagements


"Bytedance daily token update 30T per day on its Volcano platform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978781633613295752) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T11:14Z 26.7K followers, 1567 engagements


"First notice from earlier the analysis/framework keeps changing. The writedowns figure is now $6.9T. LGFV loan loss estimates have ballooned from $1.5T to $2.8T. Mortgages have been replaced with "property-collateralized corporate""  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978784510092116432) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T11:26Z 26.6K followers, 1433 engagements


"Second even high-level credit analysis breaks up recovery rate into two key components (NPL rate and asset recovery rate) because these are often more observable and thus easier to analyze. This is a much improved framework that can be sanity checked against outside numbers:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978785536094437603) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T11:30Z 26.6K followers, 1031 engagements


"More broadly I fundamentally disagree with this characterization of local governments being incentivized having free rein to do anything they wanted and "GDP at all costs" and hyperbolic descriptions of SOEs bearing unlimited financial losses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978797433522962890) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:17Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"This reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of China's administrative bureaucracy. The central gov't ultimately played the "disciplining" role for local governments. China's system of "checks and balances" is the central vs. local government dynamic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978797688792420632) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:18Z 26.6K followers, 1289 engagements


"But these flaws do not take away from the fundamental concept that there are checks and balances in China's large bureaucracy. Local government officials have incentives to perform and for a long time that was measured in GDP growth. But central government officials incentives are to make sure that the GDP growth is accurate and high-quality. And they have tools to enforce this like control over local government budgets and various levers via national SOEs and organizations like NDRC (which often have their own central vs. local matrix organizational structures)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978799334377345248) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:25Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Alex talks about the "Employment Bomb" but the reality is that the real estate sector has already gone through the bulk of the structural correction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978800846075814005) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:31Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"That XX% to me would be an absolute theoretical limit given how "Three Red Lines" clamped down on new asset formation (and associated malinvestment) how the LT nature of most LGFV assets need time to mature naturally and general rising income levels in the broad economy which support underlying usage/absorption of the assets sitting in LGFVs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978805187352416394) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T12:48Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"The cottage industry of people whose main objectives seems to be to underestimate or otherwise downplay China's real achievements are actually very harmful to the long-term strategic interests of the country. Better to over-estimate than under-"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978810898413207620) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T13:10Z 26.7K followers, 2718 engagements


"@zephyr_z9 So Google is aligned with Anthropic Who is MSFT aligned with if they are splitting from OpenAI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978847426292207893) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T15:36Z 26.6K followers, 5451 engagements


"@Wije73381133 @lithos_graphein Science includes engineering in this context. Science and engineer the shit out of things just doesnt roll off the tongue as well though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979008310914294239) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T02:15Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@Wije73381133 @lithos_graphein Imagine Hangzhou Hefei Wuhan Nanjing Shanghai Shenzhen Chengdu and Xian are all countries instead of cities. Now China has a bunch of specialized STEM expertise from many different countries to draw on. Dont know what the relevance of expertise of many countries here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979019420363039161) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T02:59Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements


"In another similar-sized tech/industrial sector NEVs I estimate the cumulative industrial subsidies since 2009 at $200B by Y/E 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979145539171020992) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T11:20Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"The subsidies represent the totality of fiscal industrial policy support that central and local governments in China have poured into the NEV sector which is now profitable (and thus self-sustaining) on a go-forward basis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979145900610969734) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T11:22Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Critical components of chip capacity buildout like the physical datacenters wires networking and supporting power infrastructure (both onsite the transmission grid and upstream electricity generation) are all mature and SOTA in China and do not require subsidies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979146318493733019) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T11:23Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@zephyr_z9 Would really want to understand just how/whether BABA's investments in AI are what is driving market share gains in delivery - and whether Meituan's investment in LLMs was a belated realization of that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979171848383275164) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T13:05Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@CNMNguyen @tomhajjar Vietnam has been the most aggressive / successful out of the ASEAN countries attracting FDI and corresponding tech/knowledge transfer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979303110112862383) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T21:46Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@evrgn11112231 But China appears to be very close to figuring it out for domestic DUV scanner that can produce at X nm which is close to SOTA (for DUV) which while not quite as complex as EUV is also no cake walk. So is there something special about EUV that puts it out of reach"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979332741826252983) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T23:44Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@StevenGlinert Huawei affiliate will be an independent foundry model. Maybe Huawei will also have an internal advanced node fab but I dont know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979339243161031146) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T00:10Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"There's also the ongoing process of reserving/writing-off bad debt that is absorbed by the banking system. Banking revenue includes a provision for bad debts that can be used to absorb them. Statutory bank equity levels are calculated after reserves. Now there is the possibility that Chinese banks are under-reserving but regardless his analysis needs to take into account the accumulation of write-offs that have been taken and the remaining reserves built into bank equity balance sheets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979505590146678969) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T11:11Z 26.7K followers, 1014 engagements


"U.S. MNCs make very high RoIC on relatively low onshore FDI investment in China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978094353038946384) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.7K followers, 2302 engagements


"Indeed I've built an alternative model based on this framework (TSF correlated to accumulated capital stock) that predicts that TSF/GDP peaking in the 2027-29 time frame at XXX% (from XXX% in 2024) and then gradually declining to XXX% by 2035"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978841360414249439) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T15:12Z 26.7K followers, 1329 engagements


"@StevenGlinert EUV path more likely to come from non-SMIC foundry. SMIC is no longer the national foundry champion. Huawei (affiliate) has taken up that banner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979336926848327723) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T00:01Z 26.7K followers, 2395 engagements


"Note: Ive never made this accusation and been clear that Lithos mental block is the man with the hammer syndrome; and specifically the blind spot on China. This is quite common and I see this all the time. SemiAnalysis also had this hole before but to its credit it appears to be investing in building the team to rectify and it shows in their more recent work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979493663106310419) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T10:24Z 26.7K followers, 4914 engagements


"The new rules that The Netherlands has put in place are effectively to regain control over certain sectors. This is rolling back the "unrestricted free trade" environment that dominated the post-Cold War period. These are also rules that China itself has in place expressly to do the same thing that The Netherlands now wants. So it should not and has not to my knowledge disputed the validity of the new rules. In the Nexperia case it is primarily concerned about retroactive application of those rules"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979510911585939953) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T11:32Z 26.7K followers, 2340 engagements


"@gonglei89 Yeah I think it's hard to say. I think in the world of commercial machines (that make things) EUV is objectively at the pinnacle. Advanced jet engines are at their pinnacle but in another category. And at this point it's like comparing Michael Jordan to Shohei Ohtani"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979681605359915378) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T22:50Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@StevenGlinert @teortaxesTex I learned the value of unpleasant truths when I started playing fantasy baseball and found the consistent disappointment of being a NY Mets fan detrimental to my fantasy baseball ambitions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979872601540616495) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-19T11:29Z 26.7K followers, 4072 engagements


"@StevenGlinert @abcampbell Oh and btw it's worth pointing out that China is quite good at recycling too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980253258082881807) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T12:42Z 26.7K followers, 1559 engagements


"Exports driven primarily by advanced economies used to account for a much larger component of China's economy accounting for X% of GDP at its peak in 2007-08"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980261336283017635) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T13:14Z 26.7K followers, 3254 engagements


"It's also quite clear in the adoption of renewables where developing/emerging economies are seeing equal or faster adoption rates than advanced economies especially if we exclude Europe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980281387371417644) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T14:34Z 26.7K followers, 3083 engagements


"More on the "new" (since 2023) "Retail Sales of Services" data series (which few analysts pickup I'm guessing for many of them because it forces them to confront the discomfort inherent in updating priors)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980283069857759279) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T14:40Z 26.7K followers, 1493 engagements


"(i) U.S. MNCs generate $100B of operating income off their China sales. This is corroborated by bottoms-up data on the largest U.S. MNCs operating in China as well as data directly from U.S. BEA itself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980349657747165590) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T19:05Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"(ii) The current P/E multiple on the S&P XXX is 25-30x on a trailing basis corresponding to a 15-20x EV/operating income multiple. Applying this multiple to the earnings stream from (i) yields attributable market cap of approximately $1.5-2 trillion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980350388952821790) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T19:08Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@abcampbell We are actually already seeing this play out in the Nexperia situation where half of Nexperia's revenue is now coming from Chinese car and industrial companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980352011096011163) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T19:14Z 26.7K followers, 1693 engagements


"@abcampbell The split with The Netherlands is going to be roughly 1:1 if measured by end demand (non-China vs. China) but relative pain will be higher for the EU (and much much higher for the directly impacted countries e.g. the Netherlands and Germany where fabs and end-demand is located"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980352159951778296) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T19:15Z 26.7K followers, 1029 engagements


"I hear over and over again how there are "100-150" Chinese EV firms and "only a handful are profitable". This is BS and highly misleading. The people who cite these figures can never seem to name even a fraction of these firms . . because they are mindless parrots who are unwilling or incapable of doing their own work to check out basic factual claims or provide highly relevant context"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1971913037763252269) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-09-27T12:21Z 26.7K followers, 88.8K engagements


"The "overinvestment" thesis carries a rather elitist conceit: that one billion Chinese people at this current standard of living (or below) don't deserve or should delay full development. You simply cannot move beyond this standard without significant gross capital formation i.e. meaning vast quantities of concrete steel energy and construction investment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1972605600929374663) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-09-29T10:13Z 26.7K followers, 115K engagements


"High likelihood of finding out soon that to secure domestic supply without access to the latest Chinese IP know-how and specialized equipment we are going to have to "brute force" it i.e. starting from scratch similar to where China was XX years ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978126118285721834) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T15:49Z 26.7K followers, 3432 engagements


"If they are unable to obtain a waiver they will have to then "design in" an alternative chip (e.g. from Broadcom) for their products (again often mature products) to be able to continue selling. Given the enhanced safety requirements of automotive/industrial/power the effort here will be similar to redesigning the product from scratch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978449344291389897) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T13:14Z 26.7K followers, 2169 engagements


"Another signal/indicator that Chinese fabs/foundries are gaining confidence in viability of domestic lithography solutions as replacements for the remaining (more mature) product lines ASML is allowed to sell to China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978466259361497449) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T14:21Z 26.7K followers, 38.3K engagements


"@tomhajjar @CNMNguyen It doesnt need to replace China to prosper. Also it is getting investment from Korea Japan Taiwan and other countries. China is second to Korea in cumulative FDI still IIRC. A fraction of Chinese production goes a long way in any smaller country"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979301494433419368) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T21:40Z 26.7K followers, 1262 engagements


"I would disagree. I think good-faith engagement and making an effort to understand the other side's argument improves debate especially if it can be deconstructed into objective/measurable data/analysis. I think it also helps that Alex and I have met up IRL and I find him to be very likeable in person"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979506028199747687) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T11:13Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@aphysicist Beating ASML/TSMC = achieving EUV (HVP)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979618678607085657) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T18:40Z 26.7K followers, 2968 engagements


"But being wowed by the science part is not a strong defense. China has already figured out the science part @gonglei89 . Its the engineering part doing it at high enough speed/consistency/accuracy that it is still working on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979624854736298106) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T19:05Z 26.7K followers, 2504 engagements


"@twittwoods @RajaKorman You do have a nice baritone voice - I listened to the podcast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979708150665351536) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-19T00:36Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Well put out some predictions e.g. do you think the U.S. will gain self-sufficiency in all the various REEs (not to mention non-REE inputs like gallium) more quickly than China gets self-sufficiency in advanced chips fabrication And since you are from India what is India's strategy here and what is the predicted timeline to self-sufficency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980249558220149188) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T12:27Z 26.7K followers, XX engagements


"Retail Sales of Services was up XXX% YoY in the 1H 2024"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1822093252167643464) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2024-08-10T02:10Z 26.7K followers, 3200 engagements


"That was quick. Beijing responds within XX hours restricting exports of its chips fabricated in its China fabs. This is likely to draw in more countries (Germany Philippines Malysia UK) as its operations span the globe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978065179242897465) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-14T11:47Z 26.7K followers, 10.7K engagements


"To characterize the primary reason for the takeover as "financial misconduct" ignoring that the the "financial misconduct" was directly linked to Wingtech's addition to the Entity List is highly misleading and disingenuous"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978434313227043084) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T12:14Z 26.7K followers, 2684 engagements


"Companies that have wholly owned subsidiaries can typically appoint directors and indirectly executvies. The owners generally have unrestricted access to funds. Wingtech paid $3B+ in 2018 for that right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978434315005333703) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T12:14Z 26.7K followers, 3913 engagements


"@benbawan This is going to cause major major headaches for their automotive and industrial customers that sell into the U.S. or markets potentially subject to the Entity List rules as they are no longer going to be able to purchase from Wingtech/Nexperia China without a waiver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978447550173646960) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T13:07Z 26.7K followers, 2308 engagements


"To beat China the U.S. needs to paradoxically stop focusing on beating China. And instead focus on being the best version of itself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978563550957228285) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-15T20:48Z 26.7K followers, 385.6K engagements


"That is why the nature of the collateral is also important. The credit boom in China the last two decades has been underpinned by the formation of long-term assets like buildings highways bridges and railway that have very long useful lives. They are hard tangible assets which usually have fairly high asset recovery rates (especially if measured against debt with equity taking the brunt of the losses)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978790646908416349) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T11:50Z 26.7K followers, 1025 engagements


"The key assumptions here are: Real GDP growth of 4.6-5.1% from 2025-2030 and 3.9-4.6% from 2031 to 2035. Capital intensity (GFCF as a % of GDP) declining from XX% in 2025 to XX% by 2035"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1978841362746180092) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-16T15:12Z 26.7K followers, 1224 engagements


"Major vibe shifts in Vietnam which is emerging as a serious winner out of the US-China trade war deftly straddling its geopolitical position to tremendous benefit for its 100M+ population. From @CNMNguyen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979189230317256710) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T14:14Z 26.7K followers, 59.8K engagements


"Thus the two main issues going forward are: X. How to continue to trade/invest in this new environment where countries are generally more protectionist X. How you untangle "permanent" investment deals in the past that were made in a more unrestricted trade environment in a fair way The WingTech/Nexperia case study is an example of the latter. But both are important and both issues need to be resolved over time. These frontline proxy battles can be viewed as real-time experiments on how countries are figuring out how to make adjustments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979511072249069722) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T11:33Z 26.7K followers, 3089 engagements


"Reading comprehension issue: Beating ASML is not the same as achieving EUV (at HVP) I dont expect China to catch up to ASML soon (by 2030 or even 2035). I do expect it to achieve EUV at HVP per the specs above. By 2045 Who the F knows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979623681006739916) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T19:00Z 26.7K followers, 10.3K engagements


"@gonglei89 Like he has done in prior posts @lithos_graphein effectively lays out his thesis of why others will never be able to catch up to ASML in lithography"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979669640491216898) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T22:03Z 26.7K followers, 2112 engagements


"My sense is that the focus on EUV lithography has taken on religious undertones and I am afraid it risks leaving the collective West psychologically unprepared. I am actually quite worried that if China achieves another unexpected breakthrough the resulting disappointment would be devastating and even more damaging than its prior breakthroughs driven by the perception of EUV as the technology "last stand""  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979679573324263609) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T22:42Z 26.7K followers, 165.6K engagements


"Agree - quantum computing can obsolete silicon altogether. But until then for silicon there's no commercial technology on the horizon that has a reasonable shot to displace EUV's precision. There are workarounds like chiplet-based design but there should be little controversy that EUV is a core technology - for both advancd logic and eventually memory chips"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979686621193937228) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T23:10Z 26.7K followers, 19.4K engagements


"He claims I'm not debating in good faith yet he's clearly deflecting the core issue. Calling out deliberate avoidance is not "needlessly rude" it's necessary to move the conversation forward. Rush you are a coward. Shameful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979692084203561221) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T23:32Z 26.7K followers, 4481 engagements


"Forgot about ball bearings for ballpoint pens too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979765806134358371) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-19T04:25Z 26.7K followers, 10.8K engagements


"By the way my sense is that it has taken on religious undertones for Chinese people too. Perhaps the difference is the psychological impact of pushing expectations back vs. expectations being shattered. Like waiting patiently for the Second Coming vs. the day it were to actually arrive. Relative equanimity in the first case. Utter chaos in the second"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979871139124957542) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-19T11:23Z 26.7K followers, 4226 engagements


"Also China has agency here. Its scientists and engineers are working on projects like Everest towards an identifiable and measurable goal: mass production of advanced silicon. While the believers in the West can just watch and wait with virtually no ability to affect the outcome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979872006171484643) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-19T11:27Z 26.7K followers, 7715 engagements


"Re: static vs. dynamic economic models. Pettis insistence and long track record of using accounting identities as the key exogenous input into his economic modeling reveals thus core view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980229572265402435) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T11:08Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"No the fundamental problem is a human capital one related to (i) supply of fundamental STEM skillsets required and (ii) selection biases that funnel top engineers into other sectors. It's not that Americans are less intelligent less hard-working less capable. It's that rare earths refining and processing is a low prestige-job in America with poor economics (so low pay) and requires you to spend lots of time out in barren areas away from the comforts of modern life"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980255046114632073) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T12:49Z 26.7K followers, 1188 engagements


"@mattdberk Oh wow great analogy and thanks for sharing. I know in medicine that the highest-pay jobs in elite professions like cardiology are not in the big cities probably for the same reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980258417714319671) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T13:02Z 26.7K followers, XX engagements


"In the GDP calculation under the expenditures approach (GDP = C + I + NX "expenditures" (a.k.a. "Consumption") is co- or inter-dependent with "gross capital formation" (a.k.a. "Investment") with only the small component of "Net eXports" as the other variable. IOW changes in "capital intensity" (measured here as GFCF as a % of GDP) necessarily reflect opposite changes in "consumption""  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980298499502612660) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T15:42Z 26.7K followers, 1251 engagements


"I attempted to explain the common conflation between the layman's conception of "consumption" and the GDP accounting-based definition of "consumption" in this piece from last year:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980299775951139042) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T15:47Z 26.7K followers, 1151 engagements


"@Brad_Setser Unsupported by the data. China "relies" far less on trade than these smaller surplus countries:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980328920324120775) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T17:43Z 26.7K followers, 1921 engagements


"@gedawei Would you please elaborate Curious to hear your thoughts on how it will affect capital intensity (as defined in the GDP accounting context)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980332434836320650) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T17:56Z 26.7K followers, XX engagements


"Ok @abcampbell has released Chapter 3: I actually quite like the first two sections about the "divorce" and the analogy (UK-Britain in the late 19th century)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980348368061886916) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T19:00Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@abcampbell The key area I would disagree with is the relative leverage and this chart. While it shows a $2T and 3:1 leverage ratio of the U.S. over China it is missing the biggest source of financial leverage - U.S. MNC sales to the domestic Chinese economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980348870543778101) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T19:02Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"This component is relatively easy to calculate - it's the share of enterprise value attributable to business/operating income generated by U.S. firms in China which mostly goes away in the scenarios Alex is contemplating. We can figure this out by (i) figuring out operating income of U.S. MNCs in China and (ii) applying a market multiple"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980349279169356165) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T19:03Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"That said the American approach cannot be a carbon copy of Chinas approach. The challenge will be figuring how to build up comprehensive societal capacity in a way that is authentically American and true to its strengths while mitigating weaknesses. This will not be easy; there are no shortcuts and there is significant fog of war. Divided politics also make pushing forward true structural reform difficult"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980381839597453537) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T21:13Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"But one obvious fix is examining the entrenched incentives that make it difficult for industrial and manufacturing companies to gain access to the STEM-oriented workforce they need to start rebuilding domestic supply chains and production capacity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980381843099926840) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T21:13Z 26.7K followers, 1318 engagements


"@RambutanRed I do agree that one needs to look at trade balance gross exports only capture one side. The problems with NX are those that I itemized above. Current account balance is the best metric for measuring reliance on foreign demand IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980404607546454276) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T22:43Z 26.7K followers, XX engagements


"Anon litho guy predicts no company but ASML makes an EUV machine in the next X decades at least. Im taking the under on that timeline and the over on no company. HVP X nm generation and spotting him X years. Lets see if he weasels out again like last time. This is a bet not on his knowledge of litho but on his complete blindspot on China. Its an easy bet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979313606727487706) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-17T22:28Z 26.7K followers, 42.5K engagements


"This is another good breakdown of the Nexperia/Wingtech saga. China's EV boom revived Nexperia's business which had been stagnant for years prior to its sale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979638010921775534) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T19:57Z 26.7K followers, 3487 engagements


"Rush Doshi (@RushDoshi) blocked me for saying he was "deflecting". I said he was "deflecting" b/c he had literally copy-and-pasted the same response on two very different questions within X minutes of each other 👇. This is not a sign of someone engaging in good-faith debate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1979691246281957756) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-18T23:29Z 26.7K followers, 30K engagements


"Economies are dynamic not static And once again this thinking ignores how productivity gains are an exogenous input into this dynamic system"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980229568603795846) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T11:08Z 26.7K followers, 5181 engagements


"Brads underlying thesis here is to prove that Chinas economy relies on foreign demand to grow but actually what the last X years of data shows is consumption and net exports as offsetting trends. When contributions from net exports fall consumption rises. When net exports rises consumption contribution falls. We can ignore the weird pandemic period where everything got messed up. But prior to the pandemic consumption was steady and driving the majority of GDP contribution. This indicates other much more significant inputs (both endogenous and exogenous) at play beyond the foreign demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980237803888754763) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T11:40Z 26.7K followers, 45.7K engagements


"@arpitrage Like when New Coke reminded us how much we liked Coca Cola Classic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980378112987959418) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-20T20:58Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@gdp1985 I didnt say land is the ONLY factor. But its the largest component of secondary activity so this is where I would look for data divergence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980435065629995341) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-21T00:44Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@gdp1985 Also theres often divergence/volatility between FAI and GFCF. Was the divergence between FAI and GFCF a noticeable outlier in Q3 vs. previous quarters to suggest more than just regular noise (I dont know the answer here)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980442233183826104) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-21T01:13Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@gdp1985 My point is that there is a certain amount of volatility / divergence between the two semi-correlated data series in the past but was the volatility so pronounced in Q3 to be able to attribute it to a specific event like anti-involution vs. just acknowledging how the mystery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1980458275515900061) [@GlennLuk](/creator/x/GlennLuk) 2025-10-21T02:17Z 26.7K followers, XXX engagements