[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  siamkidd [@SiamKidd](/creator/twitter/SiamKidd) on x 23K followers Created: 2025-06-02 12:01:42 UTC Had a lot of DMs over the weekend about a lot of chatter about the 'lack of dTAO uptake', root APY being too high and general fear about whether subnet tokens will ever recover (lol). So here are my personal thoughts on it all: 1.) 'Lack of dTAO uptake'. Crypto peeps are always time horizon myopic. And that's because we've been spoiled by previous Crypto cycles. "We want 100Xs and we want it now darn it!" But Bittensor ISN'T a crypto project folks. 'We aren't in Crypto land anymore Toto'. It's the TCP/IP of decentralised AI and it just so happens that the only way for Yuma to properly work is to utilise a DLT. That's it. (Bit shit that Substrate is the DLT we've chosen but heyho, that's another topic altogether)! We just happen to have attracted a shed load of Crypto punters which is where most of the disappointed noise is coming from. Bittensor is a brand new island that's popped up in the ocean and OTF/subnets are busy laying in hardcore infrastructure to this island. The equivalent of pipes, sewage, roads, bridges, energy etc etc. dTAO is something the world has never really seen before and it's almost X months old...chill out! 2.) 'Root APY being too high'. I sort of agree with this. When you analyse the top XXX TAO wallets, you'll see that basically XX% of them are in subnets. Just chilling in root. Why wouldn't they? Const constantly warned us all that the first X months would be chaotic as the dust settled and the APY has been great for them. I am a top XXX wallet holder and I know many others too. So from my perspective it's NOT just the APY that's holding whales back. It's the thin liquidity AND APY. If you have a XX XXX TAO ($20m wallet), if TAO weights were changed and it dropped root APY down from XX% all the way down to 5%, would they move to subnets? I'd wager that the answer is NO. Even at X% APY, they're still receiving XXX TAO per month (~$85k p/m) and even TAO at a measly $3000 that's $624k per month! Relatively risk free. Why risk losing TAO on subnets when there's generational wealth incoming from doing nothing? I don't blame them in hindsight. Depending on the wallet, I'm 70-100% in subnets and I see daily fluctuations of 1000ish TAO :-S In recent days, it's down only lol. So in order to get the whales out of root, you need a really strong forcing function to prod them out of comfort. I don't know what that may be, but I guess 1-3% root APY may move a chunk of whales into dTAO, but not all... 3.) Liquidity! Everyone has this back to front! Prices aren't going down because liquidity is increasing! You need to understand that it's NOT retail that sustainably move prices. Yes, in teenie low liq markets (prevalently seen in NFTs and memes) retail can spike prices. But what happens after spikes? Yup, typically, big re-traces. So a LOT of the price surges in subnets thus far have only been because the 2000-3000 odd subnet investors have stampeded into very low liquidity instruments (subnets)! Now 3000ish subnet investors/traders are in, we've been in a capital circulating period over the last month or so where it's just the same bunch of TAO flowing in between subnets. Bittensor on X is a big echo chamber and noisey noise/announcements trigger that same capital to rotate in and out of subnets. Other than root APY being cushy, the other main reason that many whales aren't participating in dTAO is because there is bugger all liquidity in the subnet liq pools! And it's whale participation that will lead to sustainable higher prices. Bigger wallets can't even dip their toes into a subnet without the price spiking. Which means they can't get a proper position size in and therefore don't bother. Put yourself in their boots. They see a promising subnet, but because the LP is so shallow, they can barely even get XXX% of their portfolio into it. So there's no point. And they're not going to bother buying tid-bits of alpha X times a day for XX days straight just to accumulate a X% portfolio position! I do that, because I'm an obsessive geek with no life. But others won't. This is literally one of the reasons I'm actively hunting to do as many OTC deals as possible! Also note that the top XX subnets are about XX% of the sum of all subnets. That's why it's those that fluctuate the most when sum of all goes up or down. Why? Because that's where the liquidity is! Deeper liq pools = more whale participation = higher SUSTAINABLE alpha prices! Forget retail folks! The future success of Bittensor is NOT retail crypto adoption! It's hardcore big capital that will flow into this space once the subnets start shipping game-changing services or game changing models... There will also be a constant flow of big capital entering Bittensor. I'm having loads of chats with other funds and biz owners who are setting up fund raising vehicles to plough into TAO. Patience is key... But for the retail lot, there is still a promising near future... Each subnet gets X TAO put into their LP every XX seconds. In about X months time, most pre-dTAO subnets will have ample LP depth for more capital to easily flow into. So I'm still very positive that sum of all subnets should conservatively be around 3-4 by October time. And Reserves over Injected is screaming oversold at the moment. So we just need to wait for mean reversion to kick in! I'd be surprised if TAO isn't roaring a couple of weeks after Proof of Talk next week... That whole event is one big TAO pilling event for institutions and big money. Bit of a ramble, hope this makes sense...what personally keeps my mind in focus is trying to maintain the bigger picture. For me it's this: TCP/IP (Internet protocol) = A global network for information relay/dissemination. Bitcoin protocol = A global network for information + wealth relay/dissemination. Bittensor protocol = A global network for information + wealth + intelligence relay/dissemination. Yup, Bittensor is as monumental as the creation of the Internet and Bitcoin. People just haven't figured this out yet...but if you're reading this post, you're so frickin early. As long as you don't shit the bed and dump your TAO, good times are practically coded in for you... XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [subnet tokens](/topic/subnet-tokens) [apy](/topic/apy) [Post Link](https://x.com/SiamKidd/status/1929508723606618307)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
siamkidd @SiamKidd on x 23K followers
Created: 2025-06-02 12:01:42 UTC
Had a lot of DMs over the weekend about a lot of chatter about the 'lack of dTAO uptake', root APY being too high and general fear about whether subnet tokens will ever recover (lol).
So here are my personal thoughts on it all:
1.) 'Lack of dTAO uptake'. Crypto peeps are always time horizon myopic. And that's because we've been spoiled by previous Crypto cycles. "We want 100Xs and we want it now darn it!" But Bittensor ISN'T a crypto project folks. 'We aren't in Crypto land anymore Toto'. It's the TCP/IP of decentralised AI and it just so happens that the only way for Yuma to properly work is to utilise a DLT. That's it. (Bit shit that Substrate is the DLT we've chosen but heyho, that's another topic altogether)! We just happen to have attracted a shed load of Crypto punters which is where most of the disappointed noise is coming from.
Bittensor is a brand new island that's popped up in the ocean and OTF/subnets are busy laying in hardcore infrastructure to this island. The equivalent of pipes, sewage, roads, bridges, energy etc etc. dTAO is something the world has never really seen before and it's almost X months old...chill out!
2.) 'Root APY being too high'. I sort of agree with this. When you analyse the top XXX TAO wallets, you'll see that basically XX% of them are in subnets. Just chilling in root. Why wouldn't they? Const constantly warned us all that the first X months would be chaotic as the dust settled and the APY has been great for them. I am a top XXX wallet holder and I know many others too. So from my perspective it's NOT just the APY that's holding whales back. It's the thin liquidity AND APY.
If you have a XX XXX TAO ($20m wallet), if TAO weights were changed and it dropped root APY down from XX% all the way down to 5%, would they move to subnets? I'd wager that the answer is NO. Even at X% APY, they're still receiving XXX TAO per month (~$85k p/m) and even TAO at a measly $3000 that's $624k per month! Relatively risk free. Why risk losing TAO on subnets when there's generational wealth incoming from doing nothing? I don't blame them in hindsight. Depending on the wallet, I'm 70-100% in subnets and I see daily fluctuations of 1000ish TAO :-S In recent days, it's down only lol.
So in order to get the whales out of root, you need a really strong forcing function to prod them out of comfort. I don't know what that may be, but I guess 1-3% root APY may move a chunk of whales into dTAO, but not all...
3.) Liquidity! Everyone has this back to front! Prices aren't going down because liquidity is increasing! You need to understand that it's NOT retail that sustainably move prices. Yes, in teenie low liq markets (prevalently seen in NFTs and memes) retail can spike prices. But what happens after spikes? Yup, typically, big re-traces. So a LOT of the price surges in subnets thus far have only been because the 2000-3000 odd subnet investors have stampeded into very low liquidity instruments (subnets)! Now 3000ish subnet investors/traders are in, we've been in a capital circulating period over the last month or so where it's just the same bunch of TAO flowing in between subnets. Bittensor on X is a big echo chamber and noisey noise/announcements trigger that same capital to rotate in and out of subnets.
Other than root APY being cushy, the other main reason that many whales aren't participating in dTAO is because there is bugger all liquidity in the subnet liq pools! And it's whale participation that will lead to sustainable higher prices.
Bigger wallets can't even dip their toes into a subnet without the price spiking. Which means they can't get a proper position size in and therefore don't bother. Put yourself in their boots. They see a promising subnet, but because the LP is so shallow, they can barely even get XXX% of their portfolio into it. So there's no point. And they're not going to bother buying tid-bits of alpha X times a day for XX days straight just to accumulate a X% portfolio position!
I do that, because I'm an obsessive geek with no life. But others won't. This is literally one of the reasons I'm actively hunting to do as many OTC deals as possible!
Also note that the top XX subnets are about XX% of the sum of all subnets. That's why it's those that fluctuate the most when sum of all goes up or down. Why? Because that's where the liquidity is!
Deeper liq pools = more whale participation = higher SUSTAINABLE alpha prices!
Forget retail folks! The future success of Bittensor is NOT retail crypto adoption! It's hardcore big capital that will flow into this space once the subnets start shipping game-changing services or game changing models... There will also be a constant flow of big capital entering Bittensor. I'm having loads of chats with other funds and biz owners who are setting up fund raising vehicles to plough into TAO. Patience is key...
But for the retail lot, there is still a promising near future... Each subnet gets X TAO put into their LP every XX seconds. In about X months time, most pre-dTAO subnets will have ample LP depth for more capital to easily flow into. So I'm still very positive that sum of all subnets should conservatively be around 3-4 by October time. And Reserves over Injected is screaming oversold at the moment. So we just need to wait for mean reversion to kick in! I'd be surprised if TAO isn't roaring a couple of weeks after Proof of Talk next week... That whole event is one big TAO pilling event for institutions and big money.
Bit of a ramble, hope this makes sense...what personally keeps my mind in focus is trying to maintain the bigger picture. For me it's this:
TCP/IP (Internet protocol) = A global network for information relay/dissemination.
Bitcoin protocol = A global network for information + wealth relay/dissemination.
Bittensor protocol = A global network for information + wealth + intelligence relay/dissemination.
Yup, Bittensor is as monumental as the creation of the Internet and Bitcoin. People just haven't figured this out yet...but if you're reading this post, you're so frickin early. As long as you don't shit the bed and dump your TAO, good times are practically coded in for you...
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics subnet tokens apy