#  @zoozai_invest Shira Zevin Shira Zevin posts on X about $upst, business, ipo, $lbzz the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1916960587323715584/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +506% - [--] Month [------] +232% - [--] Months [-------] +648% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1916960587323715584/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +122% - [--] Month [---] +100% - [--] Months [---] +117% ### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1916960587323715584/followers)  - [--] Week [---] +4.60% - [--] Month [---] +13% - [--] Months [---] +207% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1916960587323715584/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 60.17% [finance](/list/finance) 35.59% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 6.78% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 3.39% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 1.69% [countries](/list/countries) 0.85% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.85% **Social topic influence** [$upst](/topic/$upst) #45, [business](/topic/business) 11.02%, [ipo](/topic/ipo) #439, [$lbzz](/topic/$lbzz) 8.47%, [ai](/topic/ai) 8.47%, [$afrm](/topic/$afrm) #45, [model](/topic/model) 7.63%, [$fisv](/topic/$fisv) #9, [fintech](/topic/fintech) #641, [the first](/topic/the-first) 5.08% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@travishoium](/creator/undefined) [@fiscalai](/creator/undefined) [@investingvisual](/creator/undefined) [@mrbennychan](/creator/undefined) [@markledain](/creator/undefined) [@tnt092018](/creator/undefined) [@paultheli](/creator/undefined) [@joecarlsonshow](/creator/undefined) [@meetblossomapp](/creator/undefined) [@humbledtrader18](/creator/undefined) [@themattharbaugh](/creator/undefined) [@spacbobby](/creator/undefined) [@mrderivatives](/creator/undefined) [@adrewrogers](/creator/undefined) [@alexbelogubov](/creator/undefined) [@wearycenturion](/creator/undefined) [@speculatorio](/creator/undefined) [@paulcerro](/creator/undefined) [@stellarcat2](/creator/undefined) [@investspecial](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)](/topic/$upst) [Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)](/topic/$afrm) [Fiserv Inc (FISV)](/topic/$fisv) [NuCypher (NU)](/topic/$nu) [Figma, Inc. (FIG)](/topic/$fig) [Fiserv, Inc. (FI)](/topic/$fi) [Klarna Group plc (KLAR)](/topic/klarna) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [Hut [--] Mining Corp. (HUT)](/topic/$hut) [Synchrony Financial (SYF)](/topic/$syf) [CarMax, Inc (KMX)](/topic/$kmx) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF)](/topic/$omf) [Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY)](/topic/$pgy) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Ally Financial, Inc. (ALLY)](/topic/$ally) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Super interesting IPO coming up- Clear Street. Never heard of them before but once I started reading the prospectus it actually sounds very interesting. Why Fintech. Already profitable. Nice margins. Fast growth. And a business thats quite easy to understand-capital markets infrastructure. Itll take time to read through the entire prospectus and an IPO filing deserves that attention. Until then a few numbers / facts: 3.8% of total U.S. equity clearing volume goes through the platform Revenue driven mainly by net financing spreads + transactions Their platform unifies trading & execution risk" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021329302092976218) 2026-02-10T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$UPST That CEO transition in full force" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021336706138636575) 2026-02-10T21:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "4/ $UPST has expanded its personal loan size range Previous reports it was up to $50K In this report it's up to $75K Seems like they're stepping up in personal loans. Hopefully that has to do with improved model confidence capital supply increase and probably rise in risk tolerance. Good to see. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021937964255760468 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021937964255760468" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021937964255760468) 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "๐ฐ Market sentiment had Clear Street cut its IPO price by 3040%. The business is interesting growing super fast (and profitable) In the first [--] months of [----] they earned $157.2M up from $20.7M in the same period last year. Revenue grew 160% to $783.7M. Really impressive growth. Still at around a $7B valuation for me its a bit expensive at this stage. Will wait for a better entry point . More on the business is coming. Super interesting IPO coming up- Clear Street. Never heard of them before but once I started reading the prospectus it actually sounds very interesting. Why Fintech. Already" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2022083190786028001) 2026-02-12T22:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I was waiting to see what Lendbuzz ( $LBZZ ) IPO would price at. Now with First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies Im starting to wonder if it happens at all. If it does maybe well actually see a reasonably priced IPO. Hope so" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1974533812957990968) 2025-10-04T17:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Today Synchrony ( $SYF ) reports earnings before the open. This could genuinely be one of the more interesting opportunities out there. But since the announcement by Donald Trump about a potential 10% cap on credit-card interest for a year the risk feels too high for me right now. I dont think such a cap in the way its currently suggested is reasonable and Im skeptical it will actually be implemented. Still predicting the behavior of the current U.S. president isnt something Im comfortable betting on. So for now Im staying on the sidelines. Ill be watching the results closely though" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2016098492976914868) 2026-01-27T10:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Post [--] of [--] Another super interesting dimension emerged once I stopped looking only at borrower characteristics and asked a different question: What do these companies actually bundle and how quickly do they sell originated loans At one extreme sits $CVNA. Its trusts are composed almost entirely of loans originated in the same year. Which could mean: it keeps essentially no loans on the balance sheet or loans it cant sell quickly are simply unsellable even years later. On the other end of the spectrum sits $ALLY especially in non-prime segment. Here loans entering a trust can be [--] years old" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2018447498629538167) 2026-02-02T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@mr_Benny_Chan Thanks for the insight. You're right to call the fact that $KMX also securitizes from previous years usually [--] year back is the most dominant" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2018643035878531325) 2026-02-03T11:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Continuing the analysis Im now moving from non-captive lenders to captive auto loans- loans originated by the auto manufacturers themselves. In the dataset this includes Ford Honda Hyundai Nissan Toyota BMW and Volkswagen spanning everything from mass-market to luxury. Before even getting into borrower mix the data makes one thing very clear: because the car is the product and the loan is primarily a sales enabler APRs are mostly in the mid-single digits pools are overwhelmingly prime and across most parameters there is far less fluctuation over time compared to non-captives. Against that" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2018788479875027059) 2026-02-03T20:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@mark_ledain Just treat it as opportunity at least regarding $FISV" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2019001938818261422) 2026-02-04T10:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "With $FISV earnings coming up early next week this is a good moment to revisit my take on the business ๐จWhy $FISV looks less like a broken business and more like a great infrastructure company paying the price for years of short-term optimization and underinvestment. I just published a new blog post diving deep into whats actually going on under the hood business mix margins ๐จWhy $FISV looks less like a broken business and more like a great infrastructure company paying the price for years of short-term optimization and underinvestment. I just published a new blog post diving deep into" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2019465192648630307) 2026-02-05T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$UPST earnings are coming this week and I know a lot of people will be digging through the numbers once the report is out. Im opening a small private MVP that I built to help with exactly that- asking concrete questions and getting answers straight from the 10-K / 10-Q with the exact source attached every time. This is a free early-stage product very much an MVP and Ill only be able to open it to a small group (around [----] users) due to compute limits. Its built for investors who care about primary sources and want to validate things themselves. Theres a short demo below showing the" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2020654350440210531) 2026-02-09T00:21Z [---] followers, 10.7K engagements "Before $UPST earnings tomorrow: Would you rather: Trust an AI summary or skim [--] pages or ask a question and instantly see the source text Were building #3. Early access ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021000507729363017) 2026-02-09T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "All the changes in $UPST personnel with details: CEO transition Paul Gu (Co-founder) appointed CEO effective May [--] [----] Base salary: $540k Target bonus: 100% Equity: $37M PRSUs Dave Girouard steps down as CEO: Becomes Executive Chairman w/ base salary reduced to $15k remains on the Board President & Chief Capital Officer Sanjay Datta appointed President & Chief Capital Officer (effective immediately) Base salary: $485k Target bonus: 100% Equity: $7.5M PRSUs (same performance framework as CEO) CFO transition Andrea Blankmeyer appointed CFO effective March [--] [----] Datta remains CFO until then" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021333392109764798) 2026-02-10T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Started digging through $UPST s annual report and found several subtle but important changes most people will miss. Let's dig in ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021937955951329769) 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/ Also language suggests deeper automation in servicing. Looks like theyve begun incorporating more agentic / automated decision flows on the operational side. If true thats a margin + scalability lever not just a tech feature" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021937968660062581) 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Among all the chaos in financial markets Im fetching all public auto-loan ABS data- loan-by-loan monthly over the past year totaling 70M+ loans. Covers [--] major auto lenders and platforms. With names like $CVNA $KMX $ALLY Honda Toyota World Omni and more. The data is now loading and going through initial processing so its actually usable. This week should be full of insights. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018038062731931880 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018038062731931880" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2018038062731931880) 2026-02-01T19:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Among the advantages $UPST lists to investors are the returns. In the 2023+2024 report they showed returns for loans from [----] to present. However in this years report I read: An equal investment in loans originated Q423Q325 is expected to deliver 11.3% returns Spot the difference The Lookback window completely changed Whenever companies make statements incomparable across filings I turn detective mode on. Why Credit performance usually looks strongest early in. Shortening the window can mechanically improve headline returns even if nothing actually improved. Not saying that happened. But" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021937958144663717) 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/ One business case was removed from the list of cases using AI. The servicing prioritization ML model. My interpretation: Likely didnt generate enough economic value relative to operational complexity. In lending models dont just get retired for being bad they sometimes get retired for solving low-value problems" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021937962280243335) 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5/ $UPST internal comparison vs. traditional underwriting changed meaningfully. In prior reports they stated having +101% approvals with 38% less APR In this report only +43% approvals and 33% APR. This could mean a lot of things I'd say it most probably indicates their cautiousness (or their partners') in approval rate baked into the model. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021937966348734475 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021937966348734475" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021937966348734475) 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I like looking at a business as a whole and small changes are often what help build the bigger picture. All of these came just from the first Business section of $UPST latest filing. More as I keep reading" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021937970618552628) 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@tnt09_2018 @fiscal_ai Because" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1940511884698177673) 2025-07-02T20:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/ Still figuring out how money flows at Upstart ( $UPST). Its not complex in a bad way just layered. Every step has various options. Lets break it down one piece at a time. First stop: Loan Originations ๐งต" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942640545383240032) 2025-07-08T17:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Off topic. First time I truly felt how tricky it is to ship real features when you're vibe-coding or leaning heavily on AI helpers. The AI confidently gave me this little snippet: Seems fine right But its dangerous. Anyone see why #buildinpublic #ai #startuplife #security #python" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943413329860481173) 2025-07-10T20:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PaulTheLi It was a security bug. The code logs something generic internally but outputs the exception to the client uncensored. I realized it while I was testing and got a very detailed and revealing response from the API with details on the permissions of the service account ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1944099980500734319) 2025-07-12T18:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3/ The first number that caught me off guard ๐ Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): $6.4 ๐ LTV/CAC ratio: 30x Those are wild numbers almost too good to be true. So I looked closer" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944838895025148380) 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "7/ Lets be real: Lots of people never cancel a credit card. They just stop using it. The app sits idle. Balance stays at zero. Life moves on. Thats still churn even if its not reported that way. Especially when there are no fees or penalties to stay passive" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944838902755262905) 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Saw a lot of folks dismissing the GS downgrade on $UPST. But even Upstart themselves acknowledge that funding can dry up fast when macro conditions worsen. They faced it in [----]. They've made progress (committed capital co-investments) but lets not act like the risk vanished. We can disagree on valuation thats about how you incorporate beliefs assumptions future expectations. But the funding risk Thats a fact. And pretending its not is just bad analysis" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945088230807802302) 2025-07-15T11:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Going back to the active users comparison- adding a new definition I just came across ๐น Klarnas way: Made a purchase a payment or just logged in over the past [--] months. ๐น $PYPL s version: Completed a transaction on our platform in the last [--] months. ๐น And now $NU s way: All customers that generated revenue in the last [--] days for a given period. The difference might seem subtle but I think its telling. Each one reflects a slightly different focus: ๐ engagement vs. transactions vs. revenue contribution. Which definition gives the clearest picture of true business momentum And which one" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945212276673519883) 2025-07-15T20:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@joecarlsonshow Be scared when everyone gets greedy said someone" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1948111757618405469) 2025-07-23T20:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "๐จ Just published: $FIG s IPO - Product Love Meets Liquidity Games ๐ป๐ Everyone loves Figma. But this IPO Its not your typical growth raise. This breakdown covers: Why only 7.6% of shares will float How RSUs + insider control shape the structure The CEOs wild vesting curve And why this is more exit than expansion ๐ Full deep dive here: https://www.zoozai.net/blogpostid=aea8f575-18e3-4c9e-8bc4-e3835e510caf https://www.zoozai.net/blogpostid=aea8f575-18e3-4c9e-8bc4-e3835e510caf" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1950652363695616014) 2025-07-30T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ $UPST s new [----] convertible note terms will likely be announced tonight. Thats when well learn the interest rate the stock price trigger for conversion and how much dilution protection the capped call provides" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954992925055582690) 2025-08-11T19:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ So unlike $KLAR or $UPST who take pride in their ML-powered underwriting models $AFRM just quietly references its ITAC score. And even then only as a risk model. Either theyre using different terms or its more of an old-school scorecard than true machine learning" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957434033777836058) 2025-08-18T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Still a few thoughts came to mind when I looked at the loan breakdown by ITAC score. $AFRM 's ITAC model is supposed to assign every potential loan a score between [----] based on: Credit bureau data Affirm repayment history Credit usage Other internal data & more" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957434036214763694) 2025-08-18T13:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$FISV just released full-year results. As Ive said before- no broken business case here. Management was razor-sharp on the call. They explicitly said no negative surprises since the last update. In fact some positives emerged. They were also very clear: meaningful improvement (One Fiserv) takes work and they expect progress to show closer to end of H1 [----]. The Financial segment is clearly where most of the pain sits. Since [----] Fiserv has been modernizing the solution. Prior management pushed forced upgrades which drove client attrition. Thats no longer the approach. Other notable points:" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021224954713211051) 2026-02-10T14:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Wow. Clear Street stopped its IPO at the last minute due to market conditions after its price got slashed and probably because they feared a massive decline once trading started. $ETOR has done that before and after a couple of months eventually IPOed. Lendbuzz did it a few months ago as well and will probably try again if things get calmer. I really thought we had a chance to get it at a discount https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022314045433393410 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022314045433393410" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2022314045433393410) 2026-02-13T14:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "๐ช Another strong validation on $FISV value positioning. San-Francisco based investment manager Dodge & Cox managing hundreds of billions increased its stake to 9.2% of Fiserv. They first disclosed a 7.1% holding in mid-November. Yesterdays filing shows a jump to 9.2%. Dodge & Cox runs an active deep value approach. Theyll probably stay below 10% to avoid insider reporting requirements. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022780425467199966 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022780425467199966" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2022780425467199966) 2026-02-14T21:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$SYF reported monthly loan performance stats. January charge-offs came in at 4.7% down from 6.2% a year ago (-24% YoY) and the lowest level in the past [--] months. Delinquencies largely unchanged. Credit trend stabilizing. Strong start to the year ๐ช" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2022782294432309469) 2026-02-14T21:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "How would you expect Active Users to be counted: The Klarna's way: "made a purchase or a payment or logged into the Klarna app within the past [--] months" The Paypal way: "completed a transaction on our platform within the past [--] months." What makes more sense" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1925315646382121019) 2025-05-21T22:19Z [---] followers, 75K engagements "@InvestingVisual Nice Helped me realize for the first time what a high gross margin $NVDA has (compared to competition). How come" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1927062964533641637) 2025-05-26T18:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The US is doing it smartputting it all in stocks from day one. In Israel parents could choose between banks and stocks for child savings. But families with less financial literacy often chose low-growth options so the default was shifted to stocks. A small policy changehuge long-term impact" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1927284455573483556) 2025-05-27T08:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@meetblossomapp Best stat of the day" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1927841122463711457) 2025-05-28T21:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@InvestingVisual Probably hard to produce but - Would love to see a visual like What am I paying for Breaking down a stocks price into stuff like book value future cashflows and vibes . Helps make the price feel more real. And even if not precise at least it's comparable. WDYT" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1928153532907024863) 2025-05-29T18:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@HumbledTrader18 Kudos for the honesty super interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1932075120941568315) 2025-06-09T13:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@themattharbaugh Investor's own behavior should probably come first. Because the rest could be solved by just buying large indices and holding them for long enough" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1932766672139817219) 2025-06-11T11:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Boosted by its $NVDA partnership on AI data center tech $NVTS has had a strong run up 300% off the lows and 120% YTD. Today directors are expected to sell a combined $17.7M in shares. This follows $17M in sales earlier this week. The $NVDA effect is probably real but at these levels is NVTS still a buy #semiconductors #AI #stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1933048985884762545) 2025-06-12T06:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Meet RSEL Electronics ($RSEL.TA) Niche Israeli defense electronics firm. Supplies Rafael Elbit & more. It's [--] years old president CEO & co-founder is looking to step down and sell his holdings" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1934342195877671106) 2025-06-15T20:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TravisHoium Way to go. One of the most important lessons you could give them" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1934642222688825788) 2025-06-16T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The AI site builder race is one $Wix has to win to stay relevant. Base44 might just be the edge they needed. Lets hope the vision and spark that Maor Shlomo built doesnt fade inside the $Wix machine. Because if it holds $Wix just became a serious contender to win this AI-native web era" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1935339410813317292) 2025-06-18T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@SpacBobby Wouldn't count on that move being meaningful. These ESPP "spikes" are usually minor if at all and let's be honest the main person hoping for a gain here is the employee writing the post ๐ " [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1936556474907660695) 2025-06-21T22:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "5/ After trying $MNDY for a while I realized how much simpler task management can be. Plenty of competitors offer more intuitive options" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1937259412466331707) 2025-06-23T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Mr_Derivatives Peace pays" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1937452209203028394) 2025-06-24T10:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I think he answers in the question theyre Millennials. No memory of socialisms reality only its TikTok rebranding" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1937939813480509728) 2025-06-25T18:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SNOW insiders have been unusually active this month selling [--] to [--] times in just a few weeks. One executive literally sold yesterday and already filed for another. Not typical behavior. Hope everything is alright back home ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937945476893999233) 2025-06-25T18:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@adrewrogers Good read thanks for sharing" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1939609377679557092) 2025-06-30T08:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I still think $HOOD is expensive. But todays 14% pop Totally get it. Tokenizing two of the most interesting private companies Brilliantly insane move. And on top of it all- in the EU where $HOOD has barely scratched the surface" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1939782424474312926) 2025-06-30T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@fiscal_ai Just shows why daily moves should be completely ignored" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1940499586818494576) 2025-07-02T19:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ In B2C there's no such thing as average. Not an average user not average spend per user or anything of that sort. Everythings just heavily skewed. This is why I almost ignore all KPIs B2C companies voluntarily expose it's just too easy to make them look good" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1940852127032922268) 2025-07-03T19:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3/ The more probable case is: Most users (I'd bet more than 90%) just spent the same maybe even less. So how did ARPU rise so much A few whales spent a LOT they skewed the average" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1940852132250624186) 2025-07-03T19:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Sticking with Buffetts timeless advice: invest in businesses you understand. For me that means B2C especially tech and fintech. My next deep dive: Upstart - $UPST. A fintech lender that claims its edge lies in ML-driven loan underwriting. I once spent years building similar systems so its nice to read from the outside try to reverse-engineering their approach. First thoughts coming soon" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942101469886382464) 2025-07-07T06:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Today I encountered a new term: R&D Loans. No not loans to tech companies for their R&D. Rather loans $UPST originates in order to test new markets (like auto lending) borrower segments or other model changes. Lets break this down ๐งต" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1942171583235166628) 2025-07-07T10:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/ Final Thought: Its wild to realize that some R&D testing is actually money-risky not just oops my Python script got stuck in an infinite loop risky. Hopefully $UPST s engineers and researchers are careful enough. Would not want to be the one putting a bug in prod" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942171594157166995) 2025-07-07T10:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Skipping the Risk Factors section is tempting. It's long vague and full of boilerplate like: We may be affected by economic conditions But in most cases buried among the generic words you'll find one or two pieces of information that you wont find anywhere else. an incident of employee misconduct "Manual processes in IT" "Long onboarding timelines of [--] - [--] months" These are great for really trying to understand the business. #ValueInvesting #10K" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1942260767505449358) 2025-07-07T16:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "7/ Try this: Look at what happens if $UPST loan models are wrong by 10% 20% 30%. Does equity get wiped Do they breach covenants Would lenders still be comfortable Most data is provided you just have to pick it up" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1943312507470258448) 2025-07-10T14:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Im working on a full blog post summarizing everything I found about $UPST from fair value accounting to R&D loans and model performance. Should be out in the next few days. In the meantime I wrote about Klarnas and whats hiding in their reports you can read it here - Thinking of covering another B2C company next ideally mid/small cap fintech or otherwise. Open to suggestions ๐ Have a Great Weekend. https://www.zoozai.net/blogpostid=e7a2407c-796b-4359-8bb1-58aac940ed4f https://www.zoozai.net/blogpostid=e7a2407c-796b-4359-8bb1-58aac940ed4f" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943586819305521565) 2025-07-11T08:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ This week I added $NU (Nubank) to my analysis list alongside $UPST and Klarna. Just looking at their unbelievable customer growth makes it clear: this one plays in a different league. First thing I did Called a Brazilian friend for a reality check. He was over the moon. They genuinely love it" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944838890680193032) 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/ $NU defines CAC as the sum of only three things: Card printing & shipping Credit bureau checks Paid marketing No salaries. No tools. No attribution infrastructure. No analyst teams. Its a very narrow definition" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944838897072009606) 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/ Then theres churn. $NU reported at 0.2% per month. But heres the catch: this only includes people who actively close their accounts or get shut down for fraud/delinquency. Not people who simply stop using it" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944838900662337738) 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "9/ So yes $NU is one of the most impressive fintechs in the world. Theyve crazily scaled with product-led growth and built real loyalty. But even with great companies I think the numbers need scrutiny. Hope to find more interesting stuff while digging" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944838906920263857) 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Came across $NU s customer growth curve. Took them [--] () years to hit their first 1M customers. We all know how that ended. Keep going. It adds up. ๐ #buildinpublic" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945565594645942671) 2025-07-16T19:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@AlexBelogubov Kudos for not quitting. May I ask how did you end-up selling some of them" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1945831290101547334) 2025-07-17T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "OneMain ( $OMF ) reports Friday before the bell. After $PGY crushed expectations curious to see if that good vibe extends to the rest of retail lending- $TREE $UPST etc. Could be a nice read on how consumers are really doing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1946937555137511556) 2025-07-20T14:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/ Sure they also run efficient funding structures (ABS forward-flow deals etc.) but the real unlock is the credit quality improvement. Better underwriting means lower losses better margins and confidence to keep growing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1947726245157904603) 2025-07-22T18:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TravisHoium Curious to know why stop loss is on the list" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1947726902590115945) 2025-07-22T18:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@TravisHoium As a mother and a builder I can say this is spot on" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1947740994251694266) 2025-07-22T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/ Everyones talking about AI in lending but few talk about how you actually test if a model works. Today were diving into something underrated in $UPST s approach: their R&D loan program. Yes it carries risk. But its also part of their moat. Heres why ๐งต" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948464569506238903) 2025-07-24T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "8/ So when $UPST says Model [--] led to a 15% lift in originations It lands differently knowing theyre testing new models in the wild not just in Jupyter notebooks. Its not flashy. But its one of the most durable edges in fintech" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948464587734446432) 2025-07-24T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$OMF results look good. I usually wait for the full 10-Q before making any comments- thats where the real story is between the lines. But with a dividend yield this good (7%) its tempting to hold just for that. If you want exposure to subprime lending $OMF should definitely be considered. Less techy than $UPST or $PGY (dis) but it has the profitability and discipline of an old school lender" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948773644580110668) 2025-07-25T15:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Notes from the Footnotes: $FIG IPO 1/ Well $FIG's prospectus is full of super-interesting deets. Just started reading the risk section usually a wall of generic disclaimers. But right up top I came across something that actually stood out" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1949586785178141012) 2025-07-27T21:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/ $FIG openly admits what most engineering teams never say out loud: Rapid development cycles have also created technical debt. If we fail to properly manage it. our platform performance may suffer. Thats rare in an IPO filing" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1949586786851709424) 2025-07-27T21:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Notes from the Footnote: IPO Today all numbers about the IPO were released. So what did we find 1/ Only 7.6% of the company will be owned by the public after the IPO. The rest is still in the hands of insiders VCs and employees. This is one of the lowest public floats weve seen in a major tech IPO. ๐งต Why it matters and how it might affect your trade:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1949920945260437508) 2025-07-28T19:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "With such incentives to Dylan Field $FIG 's CEO I bet he'll be hyper focused on growth over profitability. Look at his vesting curve ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1950319328999755985) 2025-07-29T22:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$FIG s revenue is driven by a microscopic elite. Just 0.23% of customers generate 37% of ARR. Expand that to 2.5% and youve covered 64%" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1950550528418852896) 2025-07-30T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Starting my dive into Affirm ( $AFRM ) and the main thing that caught my attention was the 0% APR loans. In Q3 FY2025 these loans grew +46% YoY outpacing various growth metrics. It made me wonder: How is this even sustainable" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1953125167552463159) 2025-08-06T16:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ OK let's dig in into the most interesting part of $UPST Quarterly results -their crazy loan growth this quarter. What changed A few big things: [--]. More marketing [--]. Better models [--]. And yes more risk taken on balance sheet Lets walk through it ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953427818630508950) 2025-08-07T12:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Notes from the Footnotes $AFRM Ever wondered what's hiding in marketing expenses Its not just Google Ads. For $AFRM it's also losses on loans made at 0% or below market rates Yes Affirm originates loans at a loss to attract more merchants and drive higher volumes. These loan losses are recorded as sales and marketing expenses sometimes even exceeding the revenue they earn from the loans. ๐ A smart but costly move to scale fast" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1954281867659694198) 2025-08-09T20:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "With Klarnas alleged IPO next month its hard not to compare it to $AFRM $AFRM: no deferred interest no late fees no penalties. Klarna: 9% of revenue from late fees last year. If you had to own one BNPL stock for the next [--] years- $AFRM or Klarna ๐ง" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1955676831291777444) 2025-08-13T17:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This week $AFRM reports FY results. Since April [--] here are the new merchant adds + expansions Costco ( $COST ) ๐ Mattress Firm ๐ World Market ๐ Shopmonkey ๐ง Cali Pass ๐ฟ Xsolla ๐ฎ New Look Vision ( expansion) ๐ KAYAK ( expansion) $BKNG โ WooCommerce ( expansion) ๐ Lets see if these show up in GMV ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956839363805139036) 2025-08-16T22:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Back in [----] $AFRM gave $AMZN stock options as part of a big partnership kinda like: Let us work with your users and well give you some upside in our stock. That cost was booked over time as marketing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957191763405275263) 2025-08-17T21:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/ Just started re-reading $KLAR s new prospectus and a few lines in I was reminded what bugged me the first time: selective use of numbers. This time its closer to misleading" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1958237240003559914) 2025-08-20T18:38Z [---] followers, 16.6K engagements "@weary_centurion Agree with some. Sharing wins just for the share of gloating is boring. But if you share with the entire decision making process- why you bought the price level the reason you decided to exit. That's really helpful" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959717981640093772) 2025-08-24T20:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Speculator_io I don't see why $AFRM with the current pricing has any edge" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1959720459089662063) 2025-08-24T20:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I kinda agree. I can tell that lots of their success is attributed to fantastic product analytics and obsessive user analytics and feedback. They develop what people want make the UX awesome and know how to double down on cross/up-sell opportunities. It's not a classic moat but it's something nevertheless" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960078850706018777) 2025-08-25T20:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "TBH # of features used in a model is not an indication of a good model. Neither is it a sign of sophistication. I work in data science creating features could be a creative process that gives advantage - but the measure of that is always the end-results. Meaning how good your predictions are. Number of features could be at times (not saying this is the case in $UPST) a result of a bad trimming process of features. because creating features is not that hard - you've got automl's that come up with tons of variations from core features. And in any case there's pareto of features - value in ML as" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1960251458684662006) 2025-08-26T08:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Wow much better than expected results for $AFRM. Wasn't expecting that honestly. [----] Yearly EPS Active merchants - steep increase - 24% Active customers - steep increase - 23% Delinquencies look under control" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1961160380501094510) 2025-08-28T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Interesting point from $AFRM's outlook for 2026: An enterprise consumer is about to move its Pay Later flow out from $AFRM onto its own wallet solution. Yet outlook looks stable. ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1961167800057180199) 2025-08-28T20:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just started digging into $HUT (Hut 8) fascinating business in power infrastructure and its applications (AI $BTC mining etc.). What immediately stands out: one of the clearest most investor-friendly reports I've seen. They're incredibly transparent. It builds real confidence when management doesn't hide behind jargon. The industry tailwinds look compelling: Power/energy infrastructure momentum AI demand explosion Institutional crypto adoption Plus interesting to note Trump family involvement as investors ๐ More analysis coming but early impression is very positive" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962895157893668925) 2025-09-02T15:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "As a data scientist was pretty excited to find out that one of $HUT s subsidiaries is Highrise AI. Theyve got [----] NVIDIA GPUs there. A platform where you can fine-tune (or do more) with LLMs. Not the core of $HUT s business but a really nice way to make use of their existing resources" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962971604260159726) 2025-09-02T20:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@paulcerro I agree "mined" diamonds will suffer. The only issue is that lab grown diamonds prices decrease even faster ๐ซค" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1962972452247478486) 2025-09-02T20:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The more I study $HUT the more I love the vertical integration: โก Power owning/managing generation & transmission assets (some directly powering mining + HPC some monetized to third parties) ๐ง Digital Infrastructure purpose-built colocation & data centers ๐ฅ Compute $BTC mining + GPU-as-a-Service Not every BTC mine runs on owned power but this flexible layered model lets Hut prioritize high-margin workloads reduce costs where possible and scale across energy digital and compute. A thoughtful multi-layered play" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963344764600029352) 2025-09-03T20:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ More from $LBZZ Lendbuzz upcoming IPO They operate in auto finance. Historically a more resilient segment than consumer loans (in [----] many prioritized car payments over mortgages). The model: Partners with dealerships (2K today vs 55K in the U.S.) Digitizes a paper-heavy process for near-prime & invisible borrowers Uses ML to underwrite quickly often at better rates Everyone wins Dealers close sales faster customers get financing Lendbuzz grows. But heres the tension: dealers want to maximize sticker price. Lendbuzz needs loans that get repaid. How do you align that" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1969531725014286707) 2025-09-20T22:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ ๐ Near-prime auto lending: edges matter In the landscape of near-prime or invisible borrowers any lender who wants to survive high charge-offs needs an edge. Yes US borrowers tend to pay auto loans first (sometimes even before mortgages) but auto loans still have among the highest default rates" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972399629716132291) 2025-09-28T20:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "2/ $CACC for example has a unique business model: Takes less initial risk Shares risk with the dealer aligns incentives Collateral value often exceeds the loan safer lending Lendbuzz ( $LBZZ) takes a different approach: Targets a slightly "better" borrower segment & Relies heavily on its proprietary AI model https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972399631880355942 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972399631880355942" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972399631880355942) 2025-09-28T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/ [--]. Also LendBuzzs AI score separates borrowers who will pay from those who might default 75% of the time compared to just 57% for traditional $FICO credit scores. Higher separation = clearer signal smarter lending and fewer defaults" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972399641204535369) 2025-09-28T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/ This AI-driven approach seems to support solid operational margins and disciplined lending. Final note: whether the IPO valuation is attractive is another story (and yet to be known) but as a business $LBZZ looks well-structured and thoughtfully executed" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972399644023067113) 2025-09-28T20:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Immigration & Auto Lending: The Unexpected Link๐ 1/ When you think of auto loans immigration probably isnt the first thing that comes to mind. For Lendbuzz ( $LBZZ) though its one of the risks that could affect borrowers and business performance" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972408052763800014) 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Some of LendBuzzs consumers are immigrants and some may not be U.S. citizens or permanent residents. $LBZZ follows ID verification rules (PATRIOT Act) But they do not verify immigration status (that's the industry-standard)" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972408054848389497) 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "7/ ๐ก Have you ever thought about how policy changes like immigration enforcement could ripple into fintech and lending Its not obvious but for companies like $LBZZ its real and something investors should consider" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972408064734269558) 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks. I was not aware of perspective on lien perfection + franchised dealers . Id just add: while $LBZZ does mention negative publicity around undocumented immigrants the broader risk isnt only about them. A big part of their customer base is legal immigrants with thin / invisible credit files (the exact problem LendBuzz was founded to solve). So shifts in legal immigration patterns or policy can also affect their core audience. That said I agree with you that the overall risk is probably limited. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972665551655739878" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972665551655739878) 2025-09-29T14:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@stellarcat2 Good Catch. Raising no-FICO in Prime trusts is even more severe. Looks like they started extending loans to a new cohort with less or no credit history. $LBZZ business is all about that. I do wonder if $CVNA is doing it carefully though" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1982220771758911639) 2025-10-25T23:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@InvestSpecial @HalvioCapital Great thread thanks Regarding $MCCK with the CEO holding 75% and already showing a willingness to use company cash for commodity trading isnt there a risk he could take other actions that arent necessarily optimal for minority shareholders" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1995128386318901548) 2025-11-30T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/ Why would $FISV guarantee all the debt if its only a partial owner Probably in order to lower borrowing costs for these companies And maybe to enable them the funding at all Makes sense structurally but the downside risk sits with Fiserv" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011855643091587339) 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "After breaking down the $487M off-balance-sheet debt exposure $FISV has through guarantees provided to defi SOLUTIONS and Sagent ๐ I wanted to focus on the business side of this partial ownership. Looking at their product portfolios defi and Sagent look like a very natural fit for Fiserv. They both solve a similar problem: loan life-cycle software infrastructure. But they do so in adjacent markets: auto and mortgage. I wouldnt be surprised if once the numbers stabilize Fiserv eventually moves to fully consolidate these businesses. All in all this looks like a thoughtful strategic investment" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2012142313015783664) 2026-01-16T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Just came back from Viola Ventures State of Fintech [----]. Super interesting evening will share more once the official notes are out next week. ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2014458165899698296) 2026-01-22T22:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3/ Heres the key point: These companies have roughly $480M of debt and $FISV guarantees the entire amount even though it owns only part of them. That guarantee is an off-balance-sheet exposure. It doesnt show up as debt at $FISV but if these companies cant pay Fiserv does. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011855639216058576 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011855639216058576" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011855639216058576) 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/ What does show up on $FISVs balance sheet An equity-method investment of $94M A recorded guarantee liability of just $14M So on the surface the balance sheet impact looks small compared to the $487M exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011855641216753831) 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/ Just to clarify: this isnt direct loan exposure. $FISV doesnt hold auto loans or mortgages. But it is exposure to auto and housing cycles through software companies whose $487M of debt it guarantees. Worth knowing. Anyone familiar with defi Solutions or Sagent" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011855645046423981) 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/ One standout panel included the co-founder & CTO of Lendbuzz ( $LBZZ ). Always nice to meet F2F people from companies youve actually researched. What really stuck with me: At their peak they were running [--] predictive models in parallel basically predicting every event they could think of. The real maturity came when they realized some predictions are useless because you cant act on them in the real world. So today they run far fewer models but only the ones that actually move outcomes. Hes been deep in AI since [----] doing research at MIT and elsewhere- it showed. He also mentioned theyve" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2014458168273752245) 2026-01-22T22:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@zoozai_invest Shira ZevinShira Zevin posts on X about $upst, business, ipo, $lbzz the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence stocks 60.17% finance 35.59% technology brands 6.78% cryptocurrencies 3.39% automotive brands 1.69% countries 0.85% social networks 0.85%
Social topic influence $upst #45, business 11.02%, ipo #439, $lbzz 8.47%, ai 8.47%, $afrm #45, model 7.63%, $fisv #9, fintech #641, the first 5.08%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @travishoium @fiscalai @investingvisual @mrbennychan @markledain @tnt092018 @paultheli @joecarlsonshow @meetblossomapp @humbledtrader18 @themattharbaugh @spacbobby @mrderivatives @adrewrogers @alexbelogubov @wearycenturion @speculatorio @paulcerro @stellarcat2 @investspecial
Top assets mentioned Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Fiserv Inc (FISV) NuCypher (NU) Figma, Inc. (FIG) Fiserv, Inc. (FI) Klarna Group plc (KLAR) Carvana Co. (CVNA) Hut [--] Mining Corp. (HUT) Synchrony Financial (SYF) CarMax, Inc (KMX) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY) Bitcoin (BTC) Ally Financial, Inc. (ALLY) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Super interesting IPO coming up- Clear Street. Never heard of them before but once I started reading the prospectus it actually sounds very interesting. Why Fintech. Already profitable. Nice margins. Fast growth. And a business thats quite easy to understand-capital markets infrastructure. Itll take time to read through the entire prospectus and an IPO filing deserves that attention. Until then a few numbers / facts: 3.8% of total U.S. equity clearing volume goes through the platform Revenue driven mainly by net financing spreads + transactions Their platform unifies trading & execution risk"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$UPST That CEO transition in full force"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ $UPST has expanded its personal loan size range Previous reports it was up to $50K In this report it's up to $75K Seems like they're stepping up in personal loans. Hopefully that has to do with improved model confidence capital supply increase and probably rise in risk tolerance. Good to see. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021937964255760468 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021937964255760468"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"๐ฐ Market sentiment had Clear Street cut its IPO price by 3040%. The business is interesting growing super fast (and profitable) In the first [--] months of [----] they earned $157.2M up from $20.7M in the same period last year. Revenue grew 160% to $783.7M. Really impressive growth. Still at around a $7B valuation for me its a bit expensive at this stage. Will wait for a better entry point . More on the business is coming. Super interesting IPO coming up- Clear Street. Never heard of them before but once I started reading the prospectus it actually sounds very interesting. Why Fintech. Already"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I was waiting to see what Lendbuzz ( $LBZZ ) IPO would price at. Now with First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies Im starting to wonder if it happens at all. If it does maybe well actually see a reasonably priced IPO. Hope so"
X Link 2025-10-04T17:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Today Synchrony ( $SYF ) reports earnings before the open. This could genuinely be one of the more interesting opportunities out there. But since the announcement by Donald Trump about a potential 10% cap on credit-card interest for a year the risk feels too high for me right now. I dont think such a cap in the way its currently suggested is reasonable and Im skeptical it will actually be implemented. Still predicting the behavior of the current U.S. president isnt something Im comfortable betting on. So for now Im staying on the sidelines. Ill be watching the results closely though"
X Link 2026-01-27T10:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Post [--] of [--] Another super interesting dimension emerged once I stopped looking only at borrower characteristics and asked a different question: What do these companies actually bundle and how quickly do they sell originated loans At one extreme sits $CVNA. Its trusts are composed almost entirely of loans originated in the same year. Which could mean: it keeps essentially no loans on the balance sheet or loans it cant sell quickly are simply unsellable even years later. On the other end of the spectrum sits $ALLY especially in non-prime segment. Here loans entering a trust can be [--] years old"
X Link 2026-02-02T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@mr_Benny_Chan Thanks for the insight. You're right to call the fact that $KMX also securitizes from previous years usually [--] year back is the most dominant"
X Link 2026-02-03T11:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Continuing the analysis Im now moving from non-captive lenders to captive auto loans- loans originated by the auto manufacturers themselves. In the dataset this includes Ford Honda Hyundai Nissan Toyota BMW and Volkswagen spanning everything from mass-market to luxury. Before even getting into borrower mix the data makes one thing very clear: because the car is the product and the loan is primarily a sales enabler APRs are mostly in the mid-single digits pools are overwhelmingly prime and across most parameters there is far less fluctuation over time compared to non-captives. Against that"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@mark_ledain Just treat it as opportunity at least regarding $FISV"
X Link 2026-02-04T10:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"With $FISV earnings coming up early next week this is a good moment to revisit my take on the business ๐จWhy $FISV looks less like a broken business and more like a great infrastructure company paying the price for years of short-term optimization and underinvestment. I just published a new blog post diving deep into whats actually going on under the hood business mix margins ๐จWhy $FISV looks less like a broken business and more like a great infrastructure company paying the price for years of short-term optimization and underinvestment. I just published a new blog post diving deep into"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$UPST earnings are coming this week and I know a lot of people will be digging through the numbers once the report is out. Im opening a small private MVP that I built to help with exactly that- asking concrete questions and getting answers straight from the 10-K / 10-Q with the exact source attached every time. This is a free early-stage product very much an MVP and Ill only be able to open it to a small group (around [----] users) due to compute limits. Its built for investors who care about primary sources and want to validate things themselves. Theres a short demo below showing the"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:21Z [---] followers, 10.7K engagements
"Before $UPST earnings tomorrow: Would you rather: Trust an AI summary or skim [--] pages or ask a question and instantly see the source text Were building #3. Early access ๐"
X Link 2026-02-09T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"All the changes in $UPST personnel with details: CEO transition Paul Gu (Co-founder) appointed CEO effective May [--] [----] Base salary: $540k Target bonus: 100% Equity: $37M PRSUs Dave Girouard steps down as CEO: Becomes Executive Chairman w/ base salary reduced to $15k remains on the Board President & Chief Capital Officer Sanjay Datta appointed President & Chief Capital Officer (effective immediately) Base salary: $485k Target bonus: 100% Equity: $7.5M PRSUs (same performance framework as CEO) CFO transition Andrea Blankmeyer appointed CFO effective March [--] [----] Datta remains CFO until then"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Started digging through $UPST s annual report and found several subtle but important changes most people will miss. Let's dig in ๐"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ Also language suggests deeper automation in servicing. Looks like theyve begun incorporating more agentic / automated decision flows on the operational side. If true thats a margin + scalability lever not just a tech feature"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Among all the chaos in financial markets Im fetching all public auto-loan ABS data- loan-by-loan monthly over the past year totaling 70M+ loans. Covers [--] major auto lenders and platforms. With names like $CVNA $KMX $ALLY Honda Toyota World Omni and more. The data is now loading and going through initial processing so its actually usable. This week should be full of insights. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018038062731931880 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018038062731931880"
X Link 2026-02-01T19:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Among the advantages $UPST lists to investors are the returns. In the 2023+2024 report they showed returns for loans from [----] to present. However in this years report I read: An equal investment in loans originated Q423Q325 is expected to deliver 11.3% returns Spot the difference The Lookback window completely changed Whenever companies make statements incomparable across filings I turn detective mode on. Why Credit performance usually looks strongest early in. Shortening the window can mechanically improve headline returns even if nothing actually improved. Not saying that happened. But"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ One business case was removed from the list of cases using AI. The servicing prioritization ML model. My interpretation: Likely didnt generate enough economic value relative to operational complexity. In lending models dont just get retired for being bad they sometimes get retired for solving low-value problems"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ $UPST internal comparison vs. traditional underwriting changed meaningfully. In prior reports they stated having +101% approvals with 38% less APR In this report only +43% approvals and 33% APR. This could mean a lot of things I'd say it most probably indicates their cautiousness (or their partners') in approval rate baked into the model. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021937966348734475 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021937966348734475"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I like looking at a business as a whole and small changes are often what help build the bigger picture. All of these came just from the first Business section of $UPST latest filing. More as I keep reading"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@tnt09_2018 @fiscal_ai Because"
X Link 2025-07-02T20:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ Still figuring out how money flows at Upstart ( $UPST). Its not complex in a bad way just layered. Every step has various options. Lets break it down one piece at a time. First stop: Loan Originations ๐งต"
X Link 2025-07-08T17:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Off topic. First time I truly felt how tricky it is to ship real features when you're vibe-coding or leaning heavily on AI helpers. The AI confidently gave me this little snippet: Seems fine right But its dangerous. Anyone see why #buildinpublic #ai #startuplife #security #python"
X Link 2025-07-10T20:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PaulTheLi It was a security bug. The code logs something generic internally but outputs the exception to the client uncensored. I realized it while I was testing and got a very detailed and revealing response from the API with details on the permissions of the service account ๐"
X Link 2025-07-12T18:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ The first number that caught me off guard ๐ Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): $6.4 ๐ LTV/CAC ratio: 30x Those are wild numbers almost too good to be true. So I looked closer"
X Link 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"7/ Lets be real: Lots of people never cancel a credit card. They just stop using it. The app sits idle. Balance stays at zero. Life moves on. Thats still churn even if its not reported that way. Especially when there are no fees or penalties to stay passive"
X Link 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Saw a lot of folks dismissing the GS downgrade on $UPST. But even Upstart themselves acknowledge that funding can dry up fast when macro conditions worsen. They faced it in [----]. They've made progress (committed capital co-investments) but lets not act like the risk vanished. We can disagree on valuation thats about how you incorporate beliefs assumptions future expectations. But the funding risk Thats a fact. And pretending its not is just bad analysis"
X Link 2025-07-15T11:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Going back to the active users comparison- adding a new definition I just came across ๐น Klarnas way: Made a purchase a payment or just logged in over the past [--] months. ๐น $PYPL s version: Completed a transaction on our platform in the last [--] months. ๐น And now $NU s way: All customers that generated revenue in the last [--] days for a given period. The difference might seem subtle but I think its telling. Each one reflects a slightly different focus: ๐ engagement vs. transactions vs. revenue contribution. Which definition gives the clearest picture of true business momentum And which one"
X Link 2025-07-15T20:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@joecarlsonshow Be scared when everyone gets greedy said someone"
X Link 2025-07-23T20:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"๐จ Just published: $FIG s IPO - Product Love Meets Liquidity Games ๐ป๐ Everyone loves Figma. But this IPO Its not your typical growth raise. This breakdown covers: Why only 7.6% of shares will float How RSUs + insider control shape the structure The CEOs wild vesting curve And why this is more exit than expansion ๐ Full deep dive here: https://www.zoozai.net/blogpostid=aea8f575-18e3-4c9e-8bc4-e3835e510caf https://www.zoozai.net/blogpostid=aea8f575-18e3-4c9e-8bc4-e3835e510caf"
X Link 2025-07-30T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ $UPST s new [----] convertible note terms will likely be announced tonight. Thats when well learn the interest rate the stock price trigger for conversion and how much dilution protection the capped call provides"
X Link 2025-08-11T19:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ So unlike $KLAR or $UPST who take pride in their ML-powered underwriting models $AFRM just quietly references its ITAC score. And even then only as a risk model. Either theyre using different terms or its more of an old-school scorecard than true machine learning"
X Link 2025-08-18T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Still a few thoughts came to mind when I looked at the loan breakdown by ITAC score. $AFRM 's ITAC model is supposed to assign every potential loan a score between [----] based on: Credit bureau data Affirm repayment history Credit usage Other internal data & more"
X Link 2025-08-18T13:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$FISV just released full-year results. As Ive said before- no broken business case here. Management was razor-sharp on the call. They explicitly said no negative surprises since the last update. In fact some positives emerged. They were also very clear: meaningful improvement (One Fiserv) takes work and they expect progress to show closer to end of H1 [----]. The Financial segment is clearly where most of the pain sits. Since [----] Fiserv has been modernizing the solution. Prior management pushed forced upgrades which drove client attrition. Thats no longer the approach. Other notable points:"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Wow. Clear Street stopped its IPO at the last minute due to market conditions after its price got slashed and probably because they feared a massive decline once trading started. $ETOR has done that before and after a couple of months eventually IPOed. Lendbuzz did it a few months ago as well and will probably try again if things get calmer. I really thought we had a chance to get it at a discount https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022314045433393410 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022314045433393410"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"๐ช Another strong validation on $FISV value positioning. San-Francisco based investment manager Dodge & Cox managing hundreds of billions increased its stake to 9.2% of Fiserv. They first disclosed a 7.1% holding in mid-November. Yesterdays filing shows a jump to 9.2%. Dodge & Cox runs an active deep value approach. Theyll probably stay below 10% to avoid insider reporting requirements. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022780425467199966 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022780425467199966"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$SYF reported monthly loan performance stats. January charge-offs came in at 4.7% down from 6.2% a year ago (-24% YoY) and the lowest level in the past [--] months. Delinquencies largely unchanged. Credit trend stabilizing. Strong start to the year ๐ช"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"How would you expect Active Users to be counted: The Klarna's way: "made a purchase or a payment or logged into the Klarna app within the past [--] months" The Paypal way: "completed a transaction on our platform within the past [--] months." What makes more sense"
X Link 2025-05-21T22:19Z [---] followers, 75K engagements
"@InvestingVisual Nice Helped me realize for the first time what a high gross margin $NVDA has (compared to competition). How come"
X Link 2025-05-26T18:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The US is doing it smartputting it all in stocks from day one. In Israel parents could choose between banks and stocks for child savings. But families with less financial literacy often chose low-growth options so the default was shifted to stocks. A small policy changehuge long-term impact"
X Link 2025-05-27T08:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@meetblossomapp Best stat of the day"
X Link 2025-05-28T21:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@InvestingVisual Probably hard to produce but - Would love to see a visual like What am I paying for Breaking down a stocks price into stuff like book value future cashflows and vibes . Helps make the price feel more real. And even if not precise at least it's comparable. WDYT"
X Link 2025-05-29T18:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@HumbledTrader18 Kudos for the honesty super interesting"
X Link 2025-06-09T13:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@themattharbaugh Investor's own behavior should probably come first. Because the rest could be solved by just buying large indices and holding them for long enough"
X Link 2025-06-11T11:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Boosted by its $NVDA partnership on AI data center tech $NVTS has had a strong run up 300% off the lows and 120% YTD. Today directors are expected to sell a combined $17.7M in shares. This follows $17M in sales earlier this week. The $NVDA effect is probably real but at these levels is NVTS still a buy #semiconductors #AI #stocks"
X Link 2025-06-12T06:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Meet RSEL Electronics ($RSEL.TA) Niche Israeli defense electronics firm. Supplies Rafael Elbit & more. It's [--] years old president CEO & co-founder is looking to step down and sell his holdings"
X Link 2025-06-15T20:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TravisHoium Way to go. One of the most important lessons you could give them"
X Link 2025-06-16T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The AI site builder race is one $Wix has to win to stay relevant. Base44 might just be the edge they needed. Lets hope the vision and spark that Maor Shlomo built doesnt fade inside the $Wix machine. Because if it holds $Wix just became a serious contender to win this AI-native web era"
X Link 2025-06-18T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SpacBobby Wouldn't count on that move being meaningful. These ESPP "spikes" are usually minor if at all and let's be honest the main person hoping for a gain here is the employee writing the post ๐
"
X Link 2025-06-21T22:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"5/ After trying $MNDY for a while I realized how much simpler task management can be. Plenty of competitors offer more intuitive options"
X Link 2025-06-23T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mr_Derivatives Peace pays"
X Link 2025-06-24T10:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think he answers in the question theyre Millennials. No memory of socialisms reality only its TikTok rebranding"
X Link 2025-06-25T18:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SNOW insiders have been unusually active this month selling [--] to [--] times in just a few weeks. One executive literally sold yesterday and already filed for another. Not typical behavior. Hope everything is alright back home ๐"
X Link 2025-06-25T18:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@adrewrogers Good read thanks for sharing"
X Link 2025-06-30T08:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I still think $HOOD is expensive. But todays 14% pop Totally get it. Tokenizing two of the most interesting private companies Brilliantly insane move. And on top of it all- in the EU where $HOOD has barely scratched the surface"
X Link 2025-06-30T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@fiscal_ai Just shows why daily moves should be completely ignored"
X Link 2025-07-02T19:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ In B2C there's no such thing as average. Not an average user not average spend per user or anything of that sort. Everythings just heavily skewed. This is why I almost ignore all KPIs B2C companies voluntarily expose it's just too easy to make them look good"
X Link 2025-07-03T19:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ The more probable case is: Most users (I'd bet more than 90%) just spent the same maybe even less. So how did ARPU rise so much A few whales spent a LOT they skewed the average"
X Link 2025-07-03T19:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Sticking with Buffetts timeless advice: invest in businesses you understand. For me that means B2C especially tech and fintech. My next deep dive: Upstart - $UPST. A fintech lender that claims its edge lies in ML-driven loan underwriting. I once spent years building similar systems so its nice to read from the outside try to reverse-engineering their approach. First thoughts coming soon"
X Link 2025-07-07T06:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Today I encountered a new term: R&D Loans. No not loans to tech companies for their R&D. Rather loans $UPST originates in order to test new markets (like auto lending) borrower segments or other model changes. Lets break this down ๐งต"
X Link 2025-07-07T10:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ Final Thought: Its wild to realize that some R&D testing is actually money-risky not just oops my Python script got stuck in an infinite loop risky. Hopefully $UPST s engineers and researchers are careful enough. Would not want to be the one putting a bug in prod"
X Link 2025-07-07T10:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Skipping the Risk Factors section is tempting. It's long vague and full of boilerplate like: We may be affected by economic conditions But in most cases buried among the generic words you'll find one or two pieces of information that you wont find anywhere else. an incident of employee misconduct "Manual processes in IT" "Long onboarding timelines of [--] - [--] months" These are great for really trying to understand the business. #ValueInvesting #10K"
X Link 2025-07-07T16:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"7/ Try this: Look at what happens if $UPST loan models are wrong by 10% 20% 30%. Does equity get wiped Do they breach covenants Would lenders still be comfortable Most data is provided you just have to pick it up"
X Link 2025-07-10T14:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Im working on a full blog post summarizing everything I found about $UPST from fair value accounting to R&D loans and model performance. Should be out in the next few days. In the meantime I wrote about Klarnas and whats hiding in their reports you can read it here - Thinking of covering another B2C company next ideally mid/small cap fintech or otherwise. Open to suggestions ๐ Have a Great Weekend. https://www.zoozai.net/blogpostid=e7a2407c-796b-4359-8bb1-58aac940ed4f https://www.zoozai.net/blogpostid=e7a2407c-796b-4359-8bb1-58aac940ed4f"
X Link 2025-07-11T08:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ This week I added $NU (Nubank) to my analysis list alongside $UPST and Klarna. Just looking at their unbelievable customer growth makes it clear: this one plays in a different league. First thing I did Called a Brazilian friend for a reality check. He was over the moon. They genuinely love it"
X Link 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ $NU defines CAC as the sum of only three things: Card printing & shipping Credit bureau checks Paid marketing No salaries. No tools. No attribution infrastructure. No analyst teams. Its a very narrow definition"
X Link 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ Then theres churn. $NU reported at 0.2% per month. But heres the catch: this only includes people who actively close their accounts or get shut down for fraud/delinquency. Not people who simply stop using it"
X Link 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"9/ So yes $NU is one of the most impressive fintechs in the world. Theyve crazily scaled with product-led growth and built real loyalty. But even with great companies I think the numbers need scrutiny. Hope to find more interesting stuff while digging"
X Link 2025-07-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Came across $NU s customer growth curve. Took them [--] () years to hit their first 1M customers. We all know how that ended. Keep going. It adds up. ๐ #buildinpublic"
X Link 2025-07-16T19:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@AlexBelogubov Kudos for not quitting. May I ask how did you end-up selling some of them"
X Link 2025-07-17T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"OneMain ( $OMF ) reports Friday before the bell. After $PGY crushed expectations curious to see if that good vibe extends to the rest of retail lending- $TREE $UPST etc. Could be a nice read on how consumers are really doing"
X Link 2025-07-20T14:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ Sure they also run efficient funding structures (ABS forward-flow deals etc.) but the real unlock is the credit quality improvement. Better underwriting means lower losses better margins and confidence to keep growing"
X Link 2025-07-22T18:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TravisHoium Curious to know why stop loss is on the list"
X Link 2025-07-22T18:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TravisHoium As a mother and a builder I can say this is spot on"
X Link 2025-07-22T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ Everyones talking about AI in lending but few talk about how you actually test if a model works. Today were diving into something underrated in $UPST s approach: their R&D loan program. Yes it carries risk. But its also part of their moat. Heres why ๐งต"
X Link 2025-07-24T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"8/ So when $UPST says Model [--] led to a 15% lift in originations It lands differently knowing theyre testing new models in the wild not just in Jupyter notebooks. Its not flashy. But its one of the most durable edges in fintech"
X Link 2025-07-24T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$OMF results look good. I usually wait for the full 10-Q before making any comments- thats where the real story is between the lines. But with a dividend yield this good (7%) its tempting to hold just for that. If you want exposure to subprime lending $OMF should definitely be considered. Less techy than $UPST or $PGY (dis) but it has the profitability and discipline of an old school lender"
X Link 2025-07-25T15:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Notes from the Footnotes: $FIG IPO 1/ Well $FIG's prospectus is full of super-interesting deets. Just started reading the risk section usually a wall of generic disclaimers. But right up top I came across something that actually stood out"
X Link 2025-07-27T21:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ $FIG openly admits what most engineering teams never say out loud: Rapid development cycles have also created technical debt. If we fail to properly manage it. our platform performance may suffer. Thats rare in an IPO filing"
X Link 2025-07-27T21:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Notes from the Footnote: IPO Today all numbers about the IPO were released. So what did we find 1/ Only 7.6% of the company will be owned by the public after the IPO. The rest is still in the hands of insiders VCs and employees. This is one of the lowest public floats weve seen in a major tech IPO. ๐งต Why it matters and how it might affect your trade:"
X Link 2025-07-28T19:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"With such incentives to Dylan Field $FIG 's CEO I bet he'll be hyper focused on growth over profitability. Look at his vesting curve ๐"
X Link 2025-07-29T22:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$FIG s revenue is driven by a microscopic elite. Just 0.23% of customers generate 37% of ARR. Expand that to 2.5% and youve covered 64%"
X Link 2025-07-30T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Starting my dive into Affirm ( $AFRM ) and the main thing that caught my attention was the 0% APR loans. In Q3 FY2025 these loans grew +46% YoY outpacing various growth metrics. It made me wonder: How is this even sustainable"
X Link 2025-08-06T16:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ OK let's dig in into the most interesting part of $UPST Quarterly results -their crazy loan growth this quarter. What changed A few big things: [--]. More marketing [--]. Better models [--]. And yes more risk taken on balance sheet Lets walk through it ๐"
X Link 2025-08-07T12:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Notes from the Footnotes $AFRM Ever wondered what's hiding in marketing expenses Its not just Google Ads. For $AFRM it's also losses on loans made at 0% or below market rates Yes Affirm originates loans at a loss to attract more merchants and drive higher volumes. These loan losses are recorded as sales and marketing expenses sometimes even exceeding the revenue they earn from the loans. ๐ A smart but costly move to scale fast"
X Link 2025-08-09T20:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"With Klarnas alleged IPO next month its hard not to compare it to $AFRM $AFRM: no deferred interest no late fees no penalties. Klarna: 9% of revenue from late fees last year. If you had to own one BNPL stock for the next [--] years- $AFRM or Klarna ๐ง"
X Link 2025-08-13T17:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This week $AFRM reports FY results. Since April [--] here are the new merchant adds + expansions Costco ( $COST ) ๐ Mattress Firm ๐ World Market ๐ Shopmonkey ๐ง Cali Pass ๐ฟ Xsolla ๐ฎ New Look Vision ( expansion) ๐ KAYAK ( expansion) $BKNG โ WooCommerce ( expansion) ๐ Lets see if these show up in GMV ๐"
X Link 2025-08-16T22:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Back in [----] $AFRM gave $AMZN stock options as part of a big partnership kinda like: Let us work with your users and well give you some upside in our stock. That cost was booked over time as marketing"
X Link 2025-08-17T21:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ Just started re-reading $KLAR s new prospectus and a few lines in I was reminded what bugged me the first time: selective use of numbers. This time its closer to misleading"
X Link 2025-08-20T18:38Z [---] followers, 16.6K engagements
"@weary_centurion Agree with some. Sharing wins just for the share of gloating is boring. But if you share with the entire decision making process- why you bought the price level the reason you decided to exit. That's really helpful"
X Link 2025-08-24T20:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Speculator_io I don't see why $AFRM with the current pricing has any edge"
X Link 2025-08-24T20:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I kinda agree. I can tell that lots of their success is attributed to fantastic product analytics and obsessive user analytics and feedback. They develop what people want make the UX awesome and know how to double down on cross/up-sell opportunities. It's not a classic moat but it's something nevertheless"
X Link 2025-08-25T20:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"TBH # of features used in a model is not an indication of a good model. Neither is it a sign of sophistication. I work in data science creating features could be a creative process that gives advantage - but the measure of that is always the end-results. Meaning how good your predictions are. Number of features could be at times (not saying this is the case in $UPST) a result of a bad trimming process of features. because creating features is not that hard - you've got automl's that come up with tons of variations from core features. And in any case there's pareto of features - value in ML as"
X Link 2025-08-26T08:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Wow much better than expected results for $AFRM. Wasn't expecting that honestly. [----] Yearly EPS Active merchants - steep increase - 24% Active customers - steep increase - 23% Delinquencies look under control"
X Link 2025-08-28T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting point from $AFRM's outlook for 2026: An enterprise consumer is about to move its Pay Later flow out from $AFRM onto its own wallet solution. Yet outlook looks stable. ๐"
X Link 2025-08-28T20:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just started digging into $HUT (Hut 8) fascinating business in power infrastructure and its applications (AI $BTC mining etc.). What immediately stands out: one of the clearest most investor-friendly reports I've seen. They're incredibly transparent. It builds real confidence when management doesn't hide behind jargon. The industry tailwinds look compelling: Power/energy infrastructure momentum AI demand explosion Institutional crypto adoption Plus interesting to note Trump family involvement as investors ๐ More analysis coming but early impression is very positive"
X Link 2025-09-02T15:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"As a data scientist was pretty excited to find out that one of $HUT s subsidiaries is Highrise AI. Theyve got [----] NVIDIA GPUs there. A platform where you can fine-tune (or do more) with LLMs. Not the core of $HUT s business but a really nice way to make use of their existing resources"
X Link 2025-09-02T20:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@paulcerro I agree "mined" diamonds will suffer. The only issue is that lab grown diamonds prices decrease even faster ๐ซค"
X Link 2025-09-02T20:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The more I study $HUT the more I love the vertical integration: โก Power owning/managing generation & transmission assets (some directly powering mining + HPC some monetized to third parties) ๐ง Digital Infrastructure purpose-built colocation & data centers ๐ฅ Compute $BTC mining + GPU-as-a-Service Not every BTC mine runs on owned power but this flexible layered model lets Hut prioritize high-margin workloads reduce costs where possible and scale across energy digital and compute. A thoughtful multi-layered play"
X Link 2025-09-03T20:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ More from $LBZZ Lendbuzz upcoming IPO They operate in auto finance. Historically a more resilient segment than consumer loans (in [----] many prioritized car payments over mortgages). The model: Partners with dealerships (2K today vs 55K in the U.S.) Digitizes a paper-heavy process for near-prime & invisible borrowers Uses ML to underwrite quickly often at better rates Everyone wins Dealers close sales faster customers get financing Lendbuzz grows. But heres the tension: dealers want to maximize sticker price. Lendbuzz needs loans that get repaid. How do you align that"
X Link 2025-09-20T22:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ ๐ Near-prime auto lending: edges matter In the landscape of near-prime or invisible borrowers any lender who wants to survive high charge-offs needs an edge. Yes US borrowers tend to pay auto loans first (sometimes even before mortgages) but auto loans still have among the highest default rates"
X Link 2025-09-28T20:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ $CACC for example has a unique business model: Takes less initial risk Shares risk with the dealer aligns incentives Collateral value often exceeds the loan safer lending Lendbuzz ( $LBZZ) takes a different approach: Targets a slightly "better" borrower segment & Relies heavily on its proprietary AI model https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972399631880355942 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972399631880355942"
X Link 2025-09-28T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/ [--]. Also LendBuzzs AI score separates borrowers who will pay from those who might default 75% of the time compared to just 57% for traditional $FICO credit scores. Higher separation = clearer signal smarter lending and fewer defaults"
X Link 2025-09-28T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ This AI-driven approach seems to support solid operational margins and disciplined lending. Final note: whether the IPO valuation is attractive is another story (and yet to be known) but as a business $LBZZ looks well-structured and thoughtfully executed"
X Link 2025-09-28T20:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Immigration & Auto Lending: The Unexpected Link๐ 1/ When you think of auto loans immigration probably isnt the first thing that comes to mind. For Lendbuzz ( $LBZZ) though its one of the risks that could affect borrowers and business performance"
X Link 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Some of LendBuzzs consumers are immigrants and some may not be U.S. citizens or permanent residents. $LBZZ follows ID verification rules (PATRIOT Act) But they do not verify immigration status (that's the industry-standard)"
X Link 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"7/ ๐ก Have you ever thought about how policy changes like immigration enforcement could ripple into fintech and lending Its not obvious but for companies like $LBZZ its real and something investors should consider"
X Link 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks. I was not aware of perspective on lien perfection + franchised dealers . Id just add: while $LBZZ does mention negative publicity around undocumented immigrants the broader risk isnt only about them. A big part of their customer base is legal immigrants with thin / invisible credit files (the exact problem LendBuzz was founded to solve). So shifts in legal immigration patterns or policy can also affect their core audience. That said I agree with you that the overall risk is probably limited. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972665551655739878"
X Link 2025-09-29T14:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@stellarcat2 Good Catch. Raising no-FICO in Prime trusts is even more severe. Looks like they started extending loans to a new cohort with less or no credit history. $LBZZ business is all about that. I do wonder if $CVNA is doing it carefully though"
X Link 2025-10-25T23:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@InvestSpecial @HalvioCapital Great thread thanks Regarding $MCCK with the CEO holding 75% and already showing a willingness to use company cash for commodity trading isnt there a risk he could take other actions that arent necessarily optimal for minority shareholders"
X Link 2025-11-30T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/ Why would $FISV guarantee all the debt if its only a partial owner Probably in order to lower borrowing costs for these companies And maybe to enable them the funding at all Makes sense structurally but the downside risk sits with Fiserv"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"After breaking down the $487M off-balance-sheet debt exposure $FISV has through guarantees provided to defi SOLUTIONS and Sagent ๐ I wanted to focus on the business side of this partial ownership. Looking at their product portfolios defi and Sagent look like a very natural fit for Fiserv. They both solve a similar problem: loan life-cycle software infrastructure. But they do so in adjacent markets: auto and mortgage. I wouldnt be surprised if once the numbers stabilize Fiserv eventually moves to fully consolidate these businesses. All in all this looks like a thoughtful strategic investment"
X Link 2026-01-16T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Just came back from Viola Ventures State of Fintech [----]. Super interesting evening will share more once the official notes are out next week. ๐"
X Link 2026-01-22T22:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ Heres the key point: These companies have roughly $480M of debt and $FISV guarantees the entire amount even though it owns only part of them. That guarantee is an off-balance-sheet exposure. It doesnt show up as debt at $FISV but if these companies cant pay Fiserv does. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011855639216058576 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011855639216058576"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ What does show up on $FISVs balance sheet An equity-method investment of $94M A recorded guarantee liability of just $14M So on the surface the balance sheet impact looks small compared to the $487M exposure"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ Just to clarify: this isnt direct loan exposure. $FISV doesnt hold auto loans or mortgages. But it is exposure to auto and housing cycles through software companies whose $487M of debt it guarantees. Worth knowing. Anyone familiar with defi Solutions or Sagent"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ One standout panel included the co-founder & CTO of Lendbuzz ( $LBZZ ). Always nice to meet F2F people from companies youve actually researched. What really stuck with me: At their peak they were running [--] predictive models in parallel basically predicting every event they could think of. The real maturity came when they realized some predictions are useless because you cant act on them in the real world. So today they run far fewer models but only the ones that actually move outcomes. Hes been deep in AI since [----] doing research at MIT and elsewhere- it showed. He also mentioned theyve"
X Link 2026-01-22T22:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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