Dark | Light
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

# ![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) @NightOwlBiotech Night Owl Biotech Research Group

Night Owl Biotech Research Group posts on X about $xbi, $jazz, $itci, $nbix the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours.

### Engagements: XXX [#](/creator/twitter::1680659305698033664/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXX +4%
- X Month XXXXXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXXXX +267%
- X Year XXXXXXX +7,509%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1680659305698033664/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Month XX -XXXX%
- X Months XXX +161%
- X Year XXX +1,458%

### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1680659305698033664/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXX +2.10%
- X Month XXXXX +8.90%
- X Months XXXXX +211%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1680659305698033664/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::1680659305698033664/influence)
---

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [finance](/list/finance)  [currencies](/list/currencies) 

**Social topic influence**
[$xbi](/topic/$xbi) #11, [$jazz](/topic/$jazz), [$itci](/topic/$itci), [$nbix](/topic/$nbix), [$srpt](/topic/$srpt), [$sndx](/topic/$sndx), [$tars](/topic/$tars) #2, [$fold](/topic/$fold) #2, [$apls](/topic/$apls), [$tgtx](/topic/$tgtx)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin Incognito (XBI)](/topic/$xbi) [Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (JAZZ)](/topic/$jazz) [Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc. (ITCI)](/topic/$itci) [Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX)](/topic/$nbix) [Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT)](/topic/$srpt) [Amicus Therapeutics, Inc (FOLD)](/topic/$fold) [Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (APLS)](/topic/$apls) [TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX)](/topic/$tgtx) [Axsome Therapeutics, Inc (AXSM)](/topic/$axsm) [Corcept Therapeutics Inc. (CORT)](/topic/$cort) [Immunogen Inc (IMGN)](/topic/$imgn) [SpringWorks Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (SWTX)](/topic/$swtx) [Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (MDGL)](/topic/$mdgl) [Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD)](/topic/$acad) [PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (PTCT)](/topic/$ptct) [Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (SLNO)](/topic/$slno) [Insmed, Inc. (INSM)](/topic/$insm) [SuperRare (RARE)](/topic/$rare) [Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (IOVA)](/topic/$iova) [Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO)](/topic/$agio) [Incyte Corporation (INCY)](/topic/$incy) [Merus N.V. Common Shares (MRUS)](/topic/$mrus) [Dawn Protocol (DAWN)](/topic/$dawn) [Exelixis Inc (EXEL)](/topic/$exel) [One Cash (ONC)](/topic/$onc) [Geron Corp (GERN)](/topic/$gern) [ImmunityBio, Inc. Common Stock (IBRX)](/topic/$ibrx) [Blueprint Medicines Corporation (BPMC)](/topic/$bpmc) [Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (IONS)](/topic/$ions) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [Alkermes Inc. plc (ALKS)](/topic/$alks) [Scholar Rock Holding Corporation Common Stock (SRRK)](/topic/$srrk) [Summit Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock (SMMT)](/topic/$smmt) [Janux Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (JANX)](/topic/$janx) [Reata Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Class A Common Stock (RETA)](/topic/$reta) [Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (RYTM)](/topic/$rytm) [BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. Common Stock (BBIO)](/topic/$bbio) [Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY)](/topic/$bmy)
### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::1680659305698033664/posts)
---
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"$FOLD was upgraded by Morgan Stanley this AM. Attached is a comparison of FOLD's 10-year revenue multiple v. peers (M&A & independents). $TARS & $APLS also trade at lower multiples (there may be good reason too) $XBI $AXSM $MDGL $ACAD $PTCT $MIRM $IONS $ALKS $CORT $SLNO $NBIX"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1945827086632993083) 2025-07-17 12:45:03 UTC 1120 followers, 1781 engagements


"$APLS $JAZZ $HRMY $SRPT & $NBIX continue to trade at lower multiples of cumulative 10-year projected revenues than enterprise values paid in recent M&A (6 M&A peers incl $BIVV $GWPH $IMGN $CBST $ITCI $MDVN). Multiples also noted for $TGTX & $ASND for perspective. $XBI $LABU"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1915405390377844745) 2025-04-24 14:00:06 UTC 1120 followers, 2274 engagements


"$INKT 's 1-day gain of XXX% appears to be a record going back to 1/1/2022 (post $XBI crash). Others north of XXX% since 1/1/2022 incl $VTGN $MNPR $PROK $SLNO $JSPR $SNTI $SRRK $PHVS $SYRE $CADL $SMMT $MDGL (watch dilutives) $CRBP $SPRO $BDTX $GYRE $JANX $NBTX $KALA $CMRX $RETA"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1944249350542045221) 2025-07-13 04:15:42 UTC 1120 followers, 3046 engagements


"$ZVRA is up XX% the last X weeks. We track all comm'l-stage bios via graphs like the X attached. ZVRA is the only graph that sticks out like this on as best we can tell no news/disclosures. Those like $VRNA $INSM & $RYTM had catalysts. Are we missing any ZVRA catalyst $XBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1943755166886637778) 2025-07-11 19:31:59 UTC 1120 followers, 1578 engagements


"$SNDX forecast $87.8MM in FY25 (1st full year) Niktimvo sales ($12.116MM current royalty liab @ 13.8%). Per attached $KDMN SEC filing 1st full year Rezurock sales forecast @ $63MM. If SNDX is right Niktimvo year X sales dollars will be XX% more KDMN was acq for $1.9B"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1942248715693023406) 2025-07-07 15:45:53 UTC 1118 followers, XXX engagements


"If they decide to sell This is my gripe with these biopharmas & frankly most investors here on X. Rezdiffra is patented through 9/17/2033. All drugs are worth some NPV of their cumulative projected sales thru patent expiration. Whatever Rezdiffra is worth today it is almost certain Rezdiffra will be worth less XX months from now because the cumulative revenue opportunity thru patent expiration will be that much smaller and then Rezdiffra will be worth even less another XX months later and so on and so on. Why in the world do these folks wait to sell MDGL is forecast to burn $300MM cash this"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1944417303560339817) 2025-07-13 15:23:05 UTC 1120 followers, XXX engagements


"Comm'l-stage bio values as multiples of 10-year projected revenues v. recent peer M&A. $SRPT trades @ 0.12X cumulative 10-year projected analysts revenue est where $ITCI was acquired @ 0.41X. $XBI $NBI $IBBQ $RARE $APLS $FOLD $HRMY $ANIP $JAZZ $AXSM $NBIX $ACAD $PTCT $ASND $TGTX"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1926292767065436616) 2025-05-24 15:02:39 UTC 1120 followers, 5957 engagements


"Expanded peer group showing market caps as multiples of cumulative 10-year analyst revenue estimates (some may or may not rely on new products) v. historic M&A peer group. More to come ASAP. $XBI $RARE $HRMY $APLS $FOLD $SRPT $NBIX $PTCT $JAZZ $AXSM $TGTX $ASND $ITCI $IMGN"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1919545615651873016) 2025-05-06 00:11:52 UTC 1120 followers, 2809 engagements


"FY26 multiples for all XX comm'l-stage (& pre) oncology (MCs $200MM+) & all XX non-oncology (MCs $600MM+) focused bios $IOVA data in certain lung cancers imminent We'd guess M&A candidates incl $TARS $AGIO $JAZZ $TVTX $FOLD $TGTX $SNDX via $INCY $MRUS $BBIO $CORT $IONS $INSM"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1944063284342403080) 2025-07-12 15:56:20 UTC 1120 followers, 3131 engagements


"$JAZZ still appears an M&A candidate w/Co-Founder & CEO since 2009 retiring. $BMY $CELG M&A trx was priced @ 0.42X 10-year projected revenues (declining midway). JAZZ's EV = 0.19X 10-year analyst consensus (w/$3B net debt). Gross margins are very close. O/c we c/b wrong $XBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1941648765347057868) 2025-07-06 00:01:54 UTC 1120 followers, 1353 engagements


"We added $SRRA to our list of peer M&A as it was acquired pre FDA approval $KURA but nonetheless @ roughly the same multiple. Oncology still trails non-oncology even on a good day. $VSTM $TARS $ARDX $FOLD $DAWN $SNDX $XBI $NBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1940422906162684324) 2025-07-02 14:50:46 UTC 1120 followers, 3189 engagements


"$VRNA is being acq by $MRK @ 0.45X 10-year analyst consensus sales ests ($10B EV). This appears on the high end v peers. VRNA will file a 14D9 in X weeks w/projected sales provided MRK that may differ from analysts $TARS $SNDX have recent approvals $FOLD $ARDX $TVTX $MIRM $XBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1942983664054276306) 2025-07-09 16:26:19 UTC 1120 followers, 4810 engagements


"FY28 (Year 4) revenue multiples of comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios w/$1B+ MC + $ARDX b/c it trades @ a low multiple (w/FY34 patent exp). $ITCI was acq @ 5.5X & $SWTX @ 2.6X $XBI $SRPT $PCRX $HRMY $JAZZ $APLS $TVTX $TARS $RARE $BHVN $ARQT $AXSM $NBIX $BCRX $AUPH $AGIO $SPRY"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1926324810226786386) 2025-05-24 17:09:58 UTC 1120 followers, 6769 engagements


"$NBIX & $SRPT are unique comm'l-stage bios @ $2B/yr/sales from $X XX years ago. The attached compares NBIX/SRPT valuation v 10-year revenue estimates to X peers acq the last XX years incl $ITCI $IMGN $GWPH $MDVN. $XBI $JAZZ $EXEL $ONC $ARGX $INSM $ASND $CORT $TGTX $AXSM $ACAD"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1908958128177131733) 2025-04-06 19:00:59 UTC 1120 followers, 6329 engagements


"FY28 (Year 4) multiples of comm'l-stage oncology focused bios w/MCs $400MM+. $ITCI was acq @ 5.5X FY28 & $SWTX @ 2.6X. $XBI $NBI $IOVA $AUTL $DAWN $JAZZ $GERN $SNDX $LEGN $INCY $NVCR $GMAB $IMCR $IBRX $ONC $DCTH $EXEL $BPMC $ZYME $TLX $MRUS. PDUFAs = $REPL $NUVB $VSTM (P2) $CRDF"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1926331827553251710) 2025-05-24 17:37:51 UTC 1120 followers, 10.8K engagements


"$NBIX $SRPT & $JAZZ trade at multiples of 10-year analyst revenue estimates that are meaningfully lower than multiples paid to acquire peers (of course analyst estimates could be wrong). NBIX multiples do not reflect its $2B cash. $HRMY & $APLS also provided. $XBI $ITCI $IMGN"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1913318313167298995) 2025-04-18 19:46:48 UTC 1120 followers, 2347 engagements


"Status update & SP change of all XX new comm'l-stage oncology bios post 1st appr since 1/1/13 (12 years) incl $TSVT & $CKPT $DAWN pls read.95-98% of new P1 cancer drugs fail. Evidence appears M&A ASAP is best exit for S/H $XBI $SWTX $SNDX $MRUS $BPMC $GERN $IMCR $ONC $IBRX"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1901053681287500153) 2025-03-15 23:31:32 UTC 1119 followers, 4897 engagements


"A $SNDX $INCY Niktimvo revenue forecast using $RPRX data points per its 11/24 investor pres. RPRX notes its $350MM investment will be repaid 2.35X (or $822.5MM) by FY38. This would be $5.96B in cumulative sales. Our forecast results in an XXXX% IRR = "low double digits" per RPRX"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1939425044809064712) 2025-06-29 20:45:38 UTC 1118 followers, 1357 engagements


"@drfager @WallStSai This is an enormous inflection point. Yesterday a Rezdiffra 10-year DCF had no terminal value. Today it does. $MDGL"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1945470768692806015) 2025-07-16 13:09:11 UTC 1120 followers, XXX engagements


"$TARS trades @ 0.17X 10-year analyst consensus revenue ests (as of 6/10/25). Attached are like multiples paid in XX peer comm'l-stage bio M&A trxs. "Mid-size" peer group were acq @ a median 0.40X multiple (but range from XXXX - 0.78X). $BPMC $SWTX $ITCI $ARQT $AGIO $XBI $NBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1932614817518420148) 2025-06-11 01:44:13 UTC 1120 followers, 2443 engagements


"$DCTH trades lower v. its 12/2/24 close. The last X times DCTH reported prior quarter's sales shares jumped XX% XX% & XX% the following X weeks. This is not investment advice b/c we have no idea what will happen next time but DCTH reports Q225 sales on or around 8/8/25 $XBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1942586535985156451) 2025-07-08 14:08:16 UTC 1118 followers, 1468 engagements


"Changes ($%) for all XX comm'l-stage oncology & XX non-oncology (MC $500MM+) bios since 6/28/24. Non-oncology clearly outperformed Biggest winners $VRNA $AKBA $CRMD $RIGL $CORT $SPRY $XERS $TGTX $SLNO $EXEL $TVTX Losers $SRPT $XFOR $IOVA $ADAP $KURA $MGNX $KPTI $GERN $IBRX"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1939050544506507492) 2025-06-28 19:57:30 UTC 1120 followers, 3510 engagements

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech Night Owl Biotech Research Group

Night Owl Biotech Research Group posts on X about $xbi, $jazz, $itci, $nbix the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours.

Engagements: XXX #

Engagements Line Chart

  • X Week XXXXXX +4%
  • X Month XXXXXX -XX%
  • X Months XXXXXXX +267%
  • X Year XXXXXXX +7,509%

Mentions: XX #

Mentions Line Chart

  • X Month XX -XXXX%
  • X Months XXX +161%
  • X Year XXX +1,458%

Followers: XXXXX #

Followers Line Chart

  • X Week XXXXX +2.10%
  • X Month XXXXX +8.90%
  • X Months XXXXX +211%

CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX #

CreatorRank Line Chart

Social Influence #


Social category influence stocks cryptocurrencies finance currencies

Social topic influence $xbi #11, $jazz, $itci, $nbix, $srpt, $sndx, $tars #2, $fold #2, $apls, $tgtx

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin Incognito (XBI) Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (JAZZ) Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc. (ITCI) Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT) Amicus Therapeutics, Inc (FOLD) Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (APLS) TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX) Axsome Therapeutics, Inc (AXSM) Corcept Therapeutics Inc. (CORT) Immunogen Inc (IMGN) SpringWorks Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (SWTX) Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (MDGL) Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (PTCT) Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (SLNO) Insmed, Inc. (INSM) SuperRare (RARE) Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (IOVA) Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) Incyte Corporation (INCY) Merus N.V. Common Shares (MRUS) Dawn Protocol (DAWN) Exelixis Inc (EXEL) One Cash (ONC) Geron Corp (GERN) ImmunityBio, Inc. Common Stock (IBRX) Blueprint Medicines Corporation (BPMC) Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (IONS) Morgan Stanley (MS) Alkermes Inc. plc (ALKS) Scholar Rock Holding Corporation Common Stock (SRRK) Summit Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock (SMMT) Janux Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (JANX) Reata Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Class A Common Stock (RETA) Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (RYTM) BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. Common Stock (BBIO) Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY)

Top Social Posts #


Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"$FOLD was upgraded by Morgan Stanley this AM. Attached is a comparison of FOLD's 10-year revenue multiple v. peers (M&A & independents). $TARS & $APLS also trade at lower multiples (there may be good reason too) $XBI $AXSM $MDGL $ACAD $PTCT $MIRM $IONS $ALKS $CORT $SLNO $NBIX"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-17 12:45:03 UTC 1120 followers, 1781 engagements

"$APLS $JAZZ $HRMY $SRPT & $NBIX continue to trade at lower multiples of cumulative 10-year projected revenues than enterprise values paid in recent M&A (6 M&A peers incl $BIVV $GWPH $IMGN $CBST $ITCI $MDVN). Multiples also noted for $TGTX & $ASND for perspective. $XBI $LABU"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-04-24 14:00:06 UTC 1120 followers, 2274 engagements

"$INKT 's 1-day gain of XXX% appears to be a record going back to 1/1/2022 (post $XBI crash). Others north of XXX% since 1/1/2022 incl $VTGN $MNPR $PROK $SLNO $JSPR $SNTI $SRRK $PHVS $SYRE $CADL $SMMT $MDGL (watch dilutives) $CRBP $SPRO $BDTX $GYRE $JANX $NBTX $KALA $CMRX $RETA"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-13 04:15:42 UTC 1120 followers, 3046 engagements

"$ZVRA is up XX% the last X weeks. We track all comm'l-stage bios via graphs like the X attached. ZVRA is the only graph that sticks out like this on as best we can tell no news/disclosures. Those like $VRNA $INSM & $RYTM had catalysts. Are we missing any ZVRA catalyst $XBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-11 19:31:59 UTC 1120 followers, 1578 engagements

"$SNDX forecast $87.8MM in FY25 (1st full year) Niktimvo sales ($12.116MM current royalty liab @ 13.8%). Per attached $KDMN SEC filing 1st full year Rezurock sales forecast @ $63MM. If SNDX is right Niktimvo year X sales dollars will be XX% more KDMN was acq for $1.9B"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-07 15:45:53 UTC 1118 followers, XXX engagements

"If they decide to sell This is my gripe with these biopharmas & frankly most investors here on X. Rezdiffra is patented through 9/17/2033. All drugs are worth some NPV of their cumulative projected sales thru patent expiration. Whatever Rezdiffra is worth today it is almost certain Rezdiffra will be worth less XX months from now because the cumulative revenue opportunity thru patent expiration will be that much smaller and then Rezdiffra will be worth even less another XX months later and so on and so on. Why in the world do these folks wait to sell MDGL is forecast to burn $300MM cash this"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-13 15:23:05 UTC 1120 followers, XXX engagements

"Comm'l-stage bio values as multiples of 10-year projected revenues v. recent peer M&A. $SRPT trades @ 0.12X cumulative 10-year projected analysts revenue est where $ITCI was acquired @ 0.41X. $XBI $NBI $IBBQ $RARE $APLS $FOLD $HRMY $ANIP $JAZZ $AXSM $NBIX $ACAD $PTCT $ASND $TGTX"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-05-24 15:02:39 UTC 1120 followers, 5957 engagements

"Expanded peer group showing market caps as multiples of cumulative 10-year analyst revenue estimates (some may or may not rely on new products) v. historic M&A peer group. More to come ASAP. $XBI $RARE $HRMY $APLS $FOLD $SRPT $NBIX $PTCT $JAZZ $AXSM $TGTX $ASND $ITCI $IMGN"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-05-06 00:11:52 UTC 1120 followers, 2809 engagements

"FY26 multiples for all XX comm'l-stage (& pre) oncology (MCs $200MM+) & all XX non-oncology (MCs $600MM+) focused bios $IOVA data in certain lung cancers imminent We'd guess M&A candidates incl $TARS $AGIO $JAZZ $TVTX $FOLD $TGTX $SNDX via $INCY $MRUS $BBIO $CORT $IONS $INSM"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-12 15:56:20 UTC 1120 followers, 3131 engagements

"$JAZZ still appears an M&A candidate w/Co-Founder & CEO since 2009 retiring. $BMY $CELG M&A trx was priced @ 0.42X 10-year projected revenues (declining midway). JAZZ's EV = 0.19X 10-year analyst consensus (w/$3B net debt). Gross margins are very close. O/c we c/b wrong $XBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-06 00:01:54 UTC 1120 followers, 1353 engagements

"We added $SRRA to our list of peer M&A as it was acquired pre FDA approval $KURA but nonetheless @ roughly the same multiple. Oncology still trails non-oncology even on a good day. $VSTM $TARS $ARDX $FOLD $DAWN $SNDX $XBI $NBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-02 14:50:46 UTC 1120 followers, 3189 engagements

"$VRNA is being acq by $MRK @ 0.45X 10-year analyst consensus sales ests ($10B EV). This appears on the high end v peers. VRNA will file a 14D9 in X weeks w/projected sales provided MRK that may differ from analysts $TARS $SNDX have recent approvals $FOLD $ARDX $TVTX $MIRM $XBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-09 16:26:19 UTC 1120 followers, 4810 engagements

"FY28 (Year 4) revenue multiples of comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios w/$1B+ MC + $ARDX b/c it trades @ a low multiple (w/FY34 patent exp). $ITCI was acq @ 5.5X & $SWTX @ 2.6X $XBI $SRPT $PCRX $HRMY $JAZZ $APLS $TVTX $TARS $RARE $BHVN $ARQT $AXSM $NBIX $BCRX $AUPH $AGIO $SPRY"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-05-24 17:09:58 UTC 1120 followers, 6769 engagements

"$NBIX & $SRPT are unique comm'l-stage bios @ $2B/yr/sales from $X XX years ago. The attached compares NBIX/SRPT valuation v 10-year revenue estimates to X peers acq the last XX years incl $ITCI $IMGN $GWPH $MDVN. $XBI $JAZZ $EXEL $ONC $ARGX $INSM $ASND $CORT $TGTX $AXSM $ACAD"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-04-06 19:00:59 UTC 1120 followers, 6329 engagements

"FY28 (Year 4) multiples of comm'l-stage oncology focused bios w/MCs $400MM+. $ITCI was acq @ 5.5X FY28 & $SWTX @ 2.6X. $XBI $NBI $IOVA $AUTL $DAWN $JAZZ $GERN $SNDX $LEGN $INCY $NVCR $GMAB $IMCR $IBRX $ONC $DCTH $EXEL $BPMC $ZYME $TLX $MRUS. PDUFAs = $REPL $NUVB $VSTM (P2) $CRDF"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-05-24 17:37:51 UTC 1120 followers, 10.8K engagements

"$NBIX $SRPT & $JAZZ trade at multiples of 10-year analyst revenue estimates that are meaningfully lower than multiples paid to acquire peers (of course analyst estimates could be wrong). NBIX multiples do not reflect its $2B cash. $HRMY & $APLS also provided. $XBI $ITCI $IMGN"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-04-18 19:46:48 UTC 1120 followers, 2347 engagements

"Status update & SP change of all XX new comm'l-stage oncology bios post 1st appr since 1/1/13 (12 years) incl $TSVT & $CKPT $DAWN pls read.95-98% of new P1 cancer drugs fail. Evidence appears M&A ASAP is best exit for S/H $XBI $SWTX $SNDX $MRUS $BPMC $GERN $IMCR $ONC $IBRX"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-03-15 23:31:32 UTC 1119 followers, 4897 engagements

"A $SNDX $INCY Niktimvo revenue forecast using $RPRX data points per its 11/24 investor pres. RPRX notes its $350MM investment will be repaid 2.35X (or $822.5MM) by FY38. This would be $5.96B in cumulative sales. Our forecast results in an XXXX% IRR = "low double digits" per RPRX"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-06-29 20:45:38 UTC 1118 followers, 1357 engagements

"@drfager @WallStSai This is an enormous inflection point. Yesterday a Rezdiffra 10-year DCF had no terminal value. Today it does. $MDGL"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-16 13:09:11 UTC 1120 followers, XXX engagements

"$TARS trades @ 0.17X 10-year analyst consensus revenue ests (as of 6/10/25). Attached are like multiples paid in XX peer comm'l-stage bio M&A trxs. "Mid-size" peer group were acq @ a median 0.40X multiple (but range from XXXX - 0.78X). $BPMC $SWTX $ITCI $ARQT $AGIO $XBI $NBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-06-11 01:44:13 UTC 1120 followers, 2443 engagements

"$DCTH trades lower v. its 12/2/24 close. The last X times DCTH reported prior quarter's sales shares jumped XX% XX% & XX% the following X weeks. This is not investment advice b/c we have no idea what will happen next time but DCTH reports Q225 sales on or around 8/8/25 $XBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-08 14:08:16 UTC 1118 followers, 1468 engagements

"Changes ($%) for all XX comm'l-stage oncology & XX non-oncology (MC $500MM+) bios since 6/28/24. Non-oncology clearly outperformed Biggest winners $VRNA $AKBA $CRMD $RIGL $CORT $SPRY $XERS $TGTX $SLNO $EXEL $TVTX Losers $SRPT $XFOR $IOVA $ADAP $KURA $MGNX $KPTI $GERN $IBRX"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-06-28 19:57:30 UTC 1120 followers, 3510 engagements

creator/x::NightOwlBiotech
/creator/x::NightOwlBiotech