[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @DannyDayan5 Danny Dayan Danny Dayan posts on X about inflation, fed, spx, all the the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX +8.40% - X Month XXXXXXX +20% - X Months XXXXXXXXX +61% - X Year XXXXXXXXX +131% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/posts_active)  - X Months XXX -XX% - X Year XXX +34% ### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/followers)  - X Week XXXXXX +0.59% - X Month XXXXXX +2.90% - X Months XXXXXX +26% - X Year XXXXXX +68% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) XXXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) XXXX% [countries](/list/countries) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [inflation](/topic/inflation) #243, [fed](/topic/fed) #397, [spx](/topic/spx) 1.9%, [all the](/topic/all-the) 1.9%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) 1.27%, [gdp](/topic/gdp) 1.27%, [headed](/topic/headed) 1.27%, [robotics](/topic/robotics) 1.27%, [white house](/topic/white-house) 1.27%, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@profplum99](/creator/undefined) [@epbresearch](/creator/undefined) [@robert41405](/creator/undefined) [@dampedspring](/creator/undefined) [@benkizemchuk](/creator/undefined) [@kleppercasey](/creator/undefined) [@bull422](/creator/undefined) [@hoodlifting](/creator/undefined) [@hsri07](/creator/undefined) [@blacklioncta](/creator/undefined) [@gelubrin15](/creator/undefined) [@jeremymars26308](/creator/undefined) [@toiletkingcap](/creator/undefined) [@tonyishere4you](/creator/undefined) [@fkronawitter1](/creator/undefined) [@countdraghula](/creator/undefined) [@aahanprometheus](/creator/undefined) [@derivativesdon](/creator/undefined) [@drgingerballs](/creator/undefined) [@nicktimiraos](/creator/undefined) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "@etherealmaxime Not a disaster by any means right now. The issue is real wages and consumer confidence with inflation this elevated for this long. We'll see how it plays out"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945094160857346227) 2025-07-15 12:12:40 UTC 21.2K followers, XX engagements "@NickTimiraos Unemployment rate full employment. Inflation target. FCI super easy. Which economic terms are these exactly"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1943375547737760233) 2025-07-10 18:23:31 UTC 21.3K followers, 4447 engagements "Equilibrium between SPX: 10y from an FCI framework would be 5.05%. This would merely neutralize FCI not even tighten it. The Fed is indeed late.to hiking rates not cutting. Thank you for your attention to this matter"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945936546269372646) 2025-07-17 20:00:01 UTC 21.3K followers, 12.7K engagements "@OliverReganLLC @profplum99 @nickgiva1 @AnnaEconomist Too low. This market's signal value is 0"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945899159992537108) 2025-07-17 17:31:27 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@Ohwell902849971 They were worried about the labor market and equities had plunged. They also felt they were very restrictive at XXX% and that they would do XX anyways so why not X meeting instead of X. At the time I said it would set a bad precedent. Exactly what has happened"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945550181627277381) 2025-07-16 18:24:44 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "Tokyo Trilemma. The choice so far has been to let inflation persist and for the bond market to die"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944723569545490791) 2025-07-14 11:40:04 UTC 21.3K followers, 7749 engagements "@10009nyny Cross market action a bit concerning to me. Equities a secondary concern"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945817620919292269) 2025-07-17 12:07:27 UTC 21.2K followers, XX engagements "November 1999. The labor market continues to tighten (UR XXX% today 4.1%) but the Fed is most concerned about the speculation in tech stocks. NDX has gone up by XX% in the last X months (today XX% in X months since the low). They hike XX bps to 5.5%"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945573521008046085) 2025-07-16 19:57:29 UTC 21.3K followers, 9572 engagements "@dampedspring No inflation. Miran said so today. Stop whining"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945221347484856422) 2025-07-15 20:38:04 UTC 21.3K followers, 4579 engagements "@Gelubrin15 CPI is by far the hardest thing to predict on any given month. Retail sales NFP I think I am pretty decent"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945110358135390370) 2025-07-15 13:17:02 UTC 21.2K followers, XXX engagements "@Citrini7 If you need to hedge something you have to use that asset class. Hedge dollar by buying puts on the dollar. I see people claiming assets are hedges for other asset classes all the time. Wouldnt pass a risk committee in any serious institution as correls are not reliable"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944459753645883462) 2025-07-13 18:11:46 UTC 21.3K followers, 4360 engagements "@Arbitrage_econs Conference board literally confirms it. CPI swaps all moving higher. I do not agree with you"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946211681903813080) 2025-07-18 14:13:18 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@RodneyRRG Financial conditions are very easy like 2021 easy. Using an equilibrium approach the 10y would need to rise to XXXX just to neutralize impact from equities. X% in the past would have been a tightening"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945995342912061882) 2025-07-17 23:53:39 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@HoodLifting Completely disagree. Proven easily. I share this with my clients and theyre ahead of the curve on these topics"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946612942574653804) 2025-07-19 16:47:46 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@Arbitrage_econs Great so you can't respond to the evidence that disproved what you said but you send a chart of something already know. It fell today to levels that would still be highest in XX years and we celebrate Yay"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946210682216538357) 2025-07-18 14:09:20 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@takis2910 @AndreasSteno Used cars make no sense to me either"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945111674895126685) 2025-07-15 13:22:16 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "Potential GDP for the economy fell by X% this year. Unlike past periods where this was due to a shock this is by choice from the government. The impact of this remains poorly understand by most people"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946564525408333859) 2025-07-19 13:35:22 UTC 21.3K followers, 5169 engagements "This will anger people. -monetary policy was never tight -inflation expectations are unanchored because Fed never finished the job -equities are going parabolic because policy is loose -the dollar is the key constraint for policy Yell away. I expect it"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1943427398726488212) 2025-07-10 21:49:33 UTC 21.3K followers, 107K engagements "@2levered @oren_cass Higher rates are needed because inflation expectations are unanchored and this shock is coming at a terrible time"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945439742205587557) 2025-07-16 11:05:53 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "Why is this guy commenting on rumors This is so beyond acceptable conduct at this point with Fed interference. Speaking of which I cannot find this rumor anywhere else. I hope it's not true. Powell is holding the economy together against the nonsense"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1943751207564325044) 2025-07-11 19:16:15 UTC 21.3K followers, 43.4K engagements "The unemployment rate is headed below 4%. I cant wait for the excuses from the bears. Birth-death model or maybe some astrology pattern or whatever else nonsense they can come up with. This will only be a surprise to people who dismiss FCI"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944888206773903717) 2025-07-14 22:34:17 UTC 21.3K followers, 35K engagements "@SlickWillie227 LMAO truflation. Comedy. Why didn't you send me Eddie Murphy's predictions"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945851644408664172) 2025-07-17 14:22:38 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@hsri07 Rent rather than own China. Their tech sector is doing pretty well with AI and robotics"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945187977774158206) 2025-07-15 18:25:28 UTC 21.2K followers, XXX engagements "My view on tariff inflation is the supply side impacts are persistent. On the demand side it can go X ways: X. Demand destruction (consensus rate cuts) X. Rotation back and forth w/services (on hold) X. Wage demands (hike) X. Increased borrowing (hike) Too early to say"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945467038614352102) 2025-07-16 12:54:21 UTC 21.3K followers, 7215 engagements "@robert41405 Both are higher as we are not restrictive and the White House is getting ready for a stooge appointment"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945942410464260282) 2025-07-17 20:23:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@dampedspring Brazil's trade balance is flat with the US lol"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1943043109920653713) 2025-07-09 20:22:32 UTC 21.3K followers, 2775 engagements "@dan_rios83 @Ivan_Yuri_Rd Every survey has a partisan bias to it. Every single one. That's not new. Mean expectations were above X% under Biden and then rose further under Trump. Perfectly rational given tariffs. If it had been elevated in one and goes to X% in another I would be dismissing them"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946197936049635701) 2025-07-18 13:18:41 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@countdraghula Tariff front loading from existing inventory. Meanwhile look at supercore this month - tightening labor market. Even talking about cuts is idiotic at this stage"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946163814161936702) 2025-07-18 11:03:05 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@BlacklionCTA @ces921 @RobertPBalan1 @countdraghula Everything in Wallers cartoon speech were assumptions -assumes impact is transitory -assumes labor is weaker than the XXX% UR (which doesnt even get revised) -assumes weaker growth in Q2 suddenly due to rates and wont reverse after FCI eased -assumes neutral is X% Idiot"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946164746249552319) 2025-07-18 11:06:48 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@themarketradar No. Look at 2y around SVB or august last year. Too volatile"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946591806243614921) 2025-07-19 15:23:47 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@tdarling1 It definitely came in lower yesterday than expected. Survey date was June XX so before July 9th tariffs announcements. So lets see if it goes back up next month. So far Id say it has reflected liberation day + taco stuff well in both directions"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946570072731873443) 2025-07-19 13:57:25 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "Even if this was a trial balloon there is no line they will not cross. Dollars and bonds are to be rented not owned"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945515111088521263) 2025-07-16 16:05:23 UTC 21.3K followers, 4048 engagements "For decades the benchmark has been the S&P. With policymakers showing disregard for inflation we need to consider all assets based on the compensation they provide for this risk. Bonds are terrible. Stocks and commods are the place to be"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944415772488450232) 2025-07-13 15:17:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 9601 engagements "@tolstoybb @toiletkingcap deferring to the toilet king for confirmation"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945524323323675075) 2025-07-16 16:41:59 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "We may get a Doom Loop on steroids from this stupidity"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945504424211755165) 2025-07-16 15:22:55 UTC 21.3K followers, 17.1K engagements "@HoodLifting Inflation is headed way higher and even the Fed is projecting that"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945842740261957892) 2025-07-17 13:47:15 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@Ivan_Yuri_Rd @dan_rios83 I wish I had access to CPI swaps market. But yes I recommended to all clients who do to pay 2y and they're up XX bps so far. Easy money"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946202929007829058) 2025-07-18 13:38:31 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@jayskywalker16 Doesnt seem like a new immigration policy is coming. And yeah any onshoring is a maybe and even then a multi year story"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946574346043928652) 2025-07-19 14:14:24 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@EPBResearch Unemployment rate yes FCI tightening household debt service ratios rising household savings rates rising . Many such ways to see the impact from those hikes. Compare the below in 2000 and 2007 to today. Rates are not biting. Hence the dominance of FCI"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945947697581818234) 2025-07-17 20:44:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@prpl8 @rev_cap @TheStalwart Let me clarify: they understand it as a concept but don't know how to model it into their policy framework"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946193822947430900) 2025-07-18 13:02:20 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "Waller: Inflation expectations are well anchored but that's because I ignore all the evidence they aren't. Neither of the two mandates meet criteria for a cut but we should anyways because in my imagination neutral is 3%. In any other profession he would've been fired yday"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946184409813487887) 2025-07-18 12:24:56 UTC 21.3K followers, 9383 engagements "@primary3down @themarketradar We'd selloff 100-150 bps before they got around to that QE. New fed chair would need to be confirmed by the Senate"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945518857327718790) 2025-07-16 16:20:16 UTC 21.2K followers, XXX engagements "@AahanPrometheus I see us growing well above benchmark rates. Nowhere near contraction. Capacity is down from 200k/month to 80k now. We don't need many jobs to tighten the labor market"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946211068780351714) 2025-07-18 14:10:52 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@BickerinBrattle Like I said I generally agree with the thought. I say all the time the Fed was not restrictive and policy imposed no material restraint. Similar no But it won't tell me where the next month's data is going and hence not be profitable"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945850190021234804) 2025-07-17 14:16:52 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@fejau_inc @NickTimiraos Hes just shamelessly angling for the job"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945978767073034488) 2025-07-17 22:47:47 UTC 21.3K followers, 1013 engagements "The FCI loop framework has been a huge source of alpha for me. The economy and market dynamics have changed so it's time for an updated framework. Nobody not even the original authors of FCI have done the work we did. I expect the note out next week. It is a game changer"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945128720836255826) 2025-07-15 14:30:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 4942 engagements "@AahanPrometheus Yes known issue. But again unemployment rate doesn't get revised and indicates the tightness. It just shows you we do not need many jobs to tighten it. So I just think all labor data needs to be compared to capacity. Example: continuing claims relative to labor force"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946222063884071359) 2025-07-18 14:54:33 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@STIR_Trader_ @TonyIsHere4You Probably don't understand nor care. I don't care if you secure tariff revenue from Europe if I pay higher prices"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945881102242959710) 2025-07-17 16:19:42 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@cautious3302 XXX% and falling unemployment rate due to lower capacity. Check my feed this is an important topic I have covered before that people keep missing"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945897041617396099) 2025-07-17 17:23:02 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "Inflation is rising and unemployment is falling. A truly data dependent Fed would be hawkish. They say they are neutral but neutral is not projecting rate cuts at every meeting for X years and talking about it at every speech. This is why the Fed has not tamed inflation"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945837139054182699) 2025-07-17 13:25:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 18.9K engagements "@HoodLifting That's my point. perma doves themselves calling for it. Every sign points that way. Especially the blas attitude everyone has about it"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945845491368853670) 2025-07-17 13:58:11 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@GMillerMortgage @ValueAble1 Didn't even need to tell me. I know your view"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945896455312376290) 2025-07-17 17:20:42 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@FilipWeber3 and it has worked well since 2021"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945196591465234801) 2025-07-15 18:59:42 UTC 21.2K followers, XXX engagements "@NickTimiraos Since his prior speech: -unemployment rate fell -JOLTs improved -quits rose layoffs fell -jobless claims fell -inflation breakevens sharply higher -FCI has loosened further. Hes not data dependent. If a second wave happens he should be forced to pay back his salary"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945977795303149792) 2025-07-17 22:43:55 UTC 21.3K followers, 8202 engagements "For the life of me I still don't understand why healthcare inflation is so disconnected from reality. Healthcare spending rose by XXX% in 2023 and estimated to grow X% per year for the next decade yet PCE inflation has it at 2.5%. Real world inflation measured"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944746704160326134) 2025-07-14 13:12:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 15K engagements "@Ivan_Yuri_Rd @dan_rios83 Great. Well if you received 1y CPI swaps over the last X years at the beginning of the year each year you'd have lost 1400 bps. So maybe you should do the same here since it's so reliable"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946199550852542918) 2025-07-18 13:25:06 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@bonanza2025 I'm not a single name guy but considering their leadership in robotics it makes sense to me"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945188124037886349) 2025-07-15 18:26:03 UTC 21.2K followers, XXX engagements "@robert41405 Depends what the dollar does. With this White House dollar probably keeps falling and importing more and more inflation"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945944644996476994) 2025-07-17 20:32:11 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@DerivativesDon The whole April 2nd thing didn't teach them a lesson at all"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945520375116313001) 2025-07-16 16:26:18 UTC 21.3K followers, 1053 engagements "June 1999. The Fed is concerned about: -Rampant equity speculation and its impact on wealth (SPX PE 24x today 23x) -Too tight labor markets (UR XXX% today 4.1%) -Too high wage growth (ECI XXX% today 3.6%) -Inflation (Core CPI XXX% today 2.8%). They hiked from XXXX% to 5%"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1942197657088491909) 2025-07-07 12:23:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 33.3K engagements "@EPBResearch 1) it was 45x GDP then and 6x (higher once we get Q2) now. We are more sensitive to it. 2) there were overwhelmingly bad cyclical forces then that can overwhelm impact from FCI. We are at a steady state now with no such vulnerabilities"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945943889929482720) 2025-07-17 20:29:11 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@briangobosox You have to ask repeated questions like its a conversation. I find it pretty high in accuracy actually"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946622896559854031) 2025-07-19 17:27:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
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@DannyDayan5 Danny Dayan
Danny Dayan posts on X about inflation, fed, spx, all the the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +8.40%
- X Month XXXXXXX +20%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +61%
- X Year XXXXXXXXX +131%
Mentions: XX #
- X Months XXX -XX%
- X Year XXX +34%
Followers: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXX +0.59%
- X Month XXXXXX +2.90%
- X Months XXXXXX +26%
- X Year XXXXXX +68%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence finance XXXXX% travel destinations XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% countries XXXX%
Social topic influence inflation #243, fed #397, spx 1.9%, all the 1.9%, stocks 1.27%, gdp 1.27%, headed 1.27%, robotics 1.27%, white house 1.27%, tariffs XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @profplum99 @epbresearch @robert41405 @dampedspring @benkizemchuk @kleppercasey @bull422 @hoodlifting @hsri07 @blacklioncta @gelubrin15 @jeremymars26308 @toiletkingcap @tonyishere4you @fkronawitter1 @countdraghula @aahanprometheus @derivativesdon @drgingerballs @nicktimiraos
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"@etherealmaxime Not a disaster by any means right now. The issue is real wages and consumer confidence with inflation this elevated for this long. We'll see how it plays out"
@DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-15 12:12:40 UTC 21.2K followers, XX engagements
"@NickTimiraos Unemployment rate full employment. Inflation target. FCI super easy. Which economic terms are these exactly" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-10 18:23:31 UTC 21.3K followers, 4447 engagements
"Equilibrium between SPX: 10y from an FCI framework would be 5.05%. This would merely neutralize FCI not even tighten it. The Fed is indeed late.to hiking rates not cutting. Thank you for your attention to this matter" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 20:00:01 UTC 21.3K followers, 12.7K engagements
"@OliverReganLLC @profplum99 @nickgiva1 @AnnaEconomist Too low. This market's signal value is 0" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 17:31:27 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@Ohwell902849971 They were worried about the labor market and equities had plunged. They also felt they were very restrictive at XXX% and that they would do XX anyways so why not X meeting instead of X. At the time I said it would set a bad precedent. Exactly what has happened" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 18:24:44 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"Tokyo Trilemma. The choice so far has been to let inflation persist and for the bond market to die" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-14 11:40:04 UTC 21.3K followers, 7749 engagements
"@10009nyny Cross market action a bit concerning to me. Equities a secondary concern" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 12:07:27 UTC 21.2K followers, XX engagements
"November 1999. The labor market continues to tighten (UR XXX% today 4.1%) but the Fed is most concerned about the speculation in tech stocks. NDX has gone up by XX% in the last X months (today XX% in X months since the low). They hike XX bps to 5.5%" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 19:57:29 UTC 21.3K followers, 9572 engagements
"@dampedspring No inflation. Miran said so today. Stop whining" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-15 20:38:04 UTC 21.3K followers, 4579 engagements
"@Gelubrin15 CPI is by far the hardest thing to predict on any given month. Retail sales NFP I think I am pretty decent" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-15 13:17:02 UTC 21.2K followers, XXX engagements
"@Citrini7 If you need to hedge something you have to use that asset class. Hedge dollar by buying puts on the dollar. I see people claiming assets are hedges for other asset classes all the time. Wouldnt pass a risk committee in any serious institution as correls are not reliable" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-13 18:11:46 UTC 21.3K followers, 4360 engagements
"@Arbitrage_econs Conference board literally confirms it. CPI swaps all moving higher. I do not agree with you" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 14:13:18 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@RodneyRRG Financial conditions are very easy like 2021 easy. Using an equilibrium approach the 10y would need to rise to XXXX just to neutralize impact from equities. X% in the past would have been a tightening" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 23:53:39 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@HoodLifting Completely disagree. Proven easily. I share this with my clients and theyre ahead of the curve on these topics" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 16:47:46 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@Arbitrage_econs Great so you can't respond to the evidence that disproved what you said but you send a chart of something already know. It fell today to levels that would still be highest in XX years and we celebrate Yay" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 14:09:20 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@takis2910 @AndreasSteno Used cars make no sense to me either" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-15 13:22:16 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Potential GDP for the economy fell by X% this year. Unlike past periods where this was due to a shock this is by choice from the government. The impact of this remains poorly understand by most people" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 13:35:22 UTC 21.3K followers, 5169 engagements
"This will anger people. -monetary policy was never tight -inflation expectations are unanchored because Fed never finished the job -equities are going parabolic because policy is loose -the dollar is the key constraint for policy Yell away. I expect it" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-10 21:49:33 UTC 21.3K followers, 107K engagements
"@2levered @oren_cass Higher rates are needed because inflation expectations are unanchored and this shock is coming at a terrible time" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 11:05:53 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"Why is this guy commenting on rumors This is so beyond acceptable conduct at this point with Fed interference. Speaking of which I cannot find this rumor anywhere else. I hope it's not true. Powell is holding the economy together against the nonsense" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-11 19:16:15 UTC 21.3K followers, 43.4K engagements
"The unemployment rate is headed below 4%. I cant wait for the excuses from the bears. Birth-death model or maybe some astrology pattern or whatever else nonsense they can come up with. This will only be a surprise to people who dismiss FCI" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-14 22:34:17 UTC 21.3K followers, 35K engagements
"@SlickWillie227 LMAO truflation. Comedy. Why didn't you send me Eddie Murphy's predictions" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 14:22:38 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@hsri07 Rent rather than own China. Their tech sector is doing pretty well with AI and robotics" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-15 18:25:28 UTC 21.2K followers, XXX engagements
"My view on tariff inflation is the supply side impacts are persistent. On the demand side it can go X ways: X. Demand destruction (consensus rate cuts) X. Rotation back and forth w/services (on hold) X. Wage demands (hike) X. Increased borrowing (hike) Too early to say" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 12:54:21 UTC 21.3K followers, 7215 engagements
"@robert41405 Both are higher as we are not restrictive and the White House is getting ready for a stooge appointment" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 20:23:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@dampedspring Brazil's trade balance is flat with the US lol" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-09 20:22:32 UTC 21.3K followers, 2775 engagements
"@dan_rios83 @Ivan_Yuri_Rd Every survey has a partisan bias to it. Every single one. That's not new. Mean expectations were above X% under Biden and then rose further under Trump. Perfectly rational given tariffs. If it had been elevated in one and goes to X% in another I would be dismissing them" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 13:18:41 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@countdraghula Tariff front loading from existing inventory. Meanwhile look at supercore this month - tightening labor market. Even talking about cuts is idiotic at this stage" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 11:03:05 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@BlacklionCTA @ces921 @RobertPBalan1 @countdraghula Everything in Wallers cartoon speech were assumptions -assumes impact is transitory -assumes labor is weaker than the XXX% UR (which doesnt even get revised) -assumes weaker growth in Q2 suddenly due to rates and wont reverse after FCI eased -assumes neutral is X% Idiot" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 11:06:48 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@themarketradar No. Look at 2y around SVB or august last year. Too volatile" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 15:23:47 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@tdarling1 It definitely came in lower yesterday than expected. Survey date was June XX so before July 9th tariffs announcements. So lets see if it goes back up next month. So far Id say it has reflected liberation day + taco stuff well in both directions" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 13:57:25 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"Even if this was a trial balloon there is no line they will not cross. Dollars and bonds are to be rented not owned" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 16:05:23 UTC 21.3K followers, 4048 engagements
"For decades the benchmark has been the S&P. With policymakers showing disregard for inflation we need to consider all assets based on the compensation they provide for this risk. Bonds are terrible. Stocks and commods are the place to be" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-13 15:17:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 9601 engagements
"@tolstoybb @toiletkingcap deferring to the toilet king for confirmation" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 16:41:59 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"We may get a Doom Loop on steroids from this stupidity" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 15:22:55 UTC 21.3K followers, 17.1K engagements
"@HoodLifting Inflation is headed way higher and even the Fed is projecting that" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 13:47:15 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@Ivan_Yuri_Rd @dan_rios83 I wish I had access to CPI swaps market. But yes I recommended to all clients who do to pay 2y and they're up XX bps so far. Easy money" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 13:38:31 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@jayskywalker16 Doesnt seem like a new immigration policy is coming. And yeah any onshoring is a maybe and even then a multi year story" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 14:14:24 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@EPBResearch Unemployment rate yes FCI tightening household debt service ratios rising household savings rates rising . Many such ways to see the impact from those hikes. Compare the below in 2000 and 2007 to today. Rates are not biting. Hence the dominance of FCI" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 20:44:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@prpl8 @rev_cap @TheStalwart Let me clarify: they understand it as a concept but don't know how to model it into their policy framework" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 13:02:20 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"Waller: Inflation expectations are well anchored but that's because I ignore all the evidence they aren't. Neither of the two mandates meet criteria for a cut but we should anyways because in my imagination neutral is 3%. In any other profession he would've been fired yday" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 12:24:56 UTC 21.3K followers, 9383 engagements
"@primary3down @themarketradar We'd selloff 100-150 bps before they got around to that QE. New fed chair would need to be confirmed by the Senate" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 16:20:16 UTC 21.2K followers, XXX engagements
"@AahanPrometheus I see us growing well above benchmark rates. Nowhere near contraction. Capacity is down from 200k/month to 80k now. We don't need many jobs to tighten the labor market" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 14:10:52 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@BickerinBrattle Like I said I generally agree with the thought. I say all the time the Fed was not restrictive and policy imposed no material restraint. Similar no But it won't tell me where the next month's data is going and hence not be profitable" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 14:16:52 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@fejau_inc @NickTimiraos Hes just shamelessly angling for the job" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 22:47:47 UTC 21.3K followers, 1013 engagements
"The FCI loop framework has been a huge source of alpha for me. The economy and market dynamics have changed so it's time for an updated framework. Nobody not even the original authors of FCI have done the work we did. I expect the note out next week. It is a game changer" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-15 14:30:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 4942 engagements
"@AahanPrometheus Yes known issue. But again unemployment rate doesn't get revised and indicates the tightness. It just shows you we do not need many jobs to tighten it. So I just think all labor data needs to be compared to capacity. Example: continuing claims relative to labor force" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 14:54:33 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@STIR_Trader_ @TonyIsHere4You Probably don't understand nor care. I don't care if you secure tariff revenue from Europe if I pay higher prices" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 16:19:42 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@cautious3302 XXX% and falling unemployment rate due to lower capacity. Check my feed this is an important topic I have covered before that people keep missing" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 17:23:02 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"Inflation is rising and unemployment is falling. A truly data dependent Fed would be hawkish. They say they are neutral but neutral is not projecting rate cuts at every meeting for X years and talking about it at every speech. This is why the Fed has not tamed inflation" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 13:25:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 18.9K engagements
"@HoodLifting That's my point. perma doves themselves calling for it. Every sign points that way. Especially the blas attitude everyone has about it" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 13:58:11 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@GMillerMortgage @ValueAble1 Didn't even need to tell me. I know your view" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 17:20:42 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@FilipWeber3 and it has worked well since 2021" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-15 18:59:42 UTC 21.2K followers, XXX engagements
"@NickTimiraos Since his prior speech: -unemployment rate fell -JOLTs improved -quits rose layoffs fell -jobless claims fell -inflation breakevens sharply higher -FCI has loosened further. Hes not data dependent. If a second wave happens he should be forced to pay back his salary" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 22:43:55 UTC 21.3K followers, 8202 engagements
"For the life of me I still don't understand why healthcare inflation is so disconnected from reality. Healthcare spending rose by XXX% in 2023 and estimated to grow X% per year for the next decade yet PCE inflation has it at 2.5%. Real world inflation measured" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-14 13:12:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 15K engagements
"@Ivan_Yuri_Rd @dan_rios83 Great. Well if you received 1y CPI swaps over the last X years at the beginning of the year each year you'd have lost 1400 bps. So maybe you should do the same here since it's so reliable" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 13:25:06 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@bonanza2025 I'm not a single name guy but considering their leadership in robotics it makes sense to me" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-15 18:26:03 UTC 21.2K followers, XXX engagements
"@robert41405 Depends what the dollar does. With this White House dollar probably keeps falling and importing more and more inflation" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 20:32:11 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@DerivativesDon The whole April 2nd thing didn't teach them a lesson at all" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 16:26:18 UTC 21.3K followers, 1053 engagements
"June 1999. The Fed is concerned about: -Rampant equity speculation and its impact on wealth (SPX PE 24x today 23x) -Too tight labor markets (UR XXX% today 4.1%) -Too high wage growth (ECI XXX% today 3.6%) -Inflation (Core CPI XXX% today 2.8%). They hiked from XXXX% to 5%" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-07 12:23:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 33.3K engagements
"@EPBResearch 1) it was 45x GDP then and 6x (higher once we get Q2) now. We are more sensitive to it. 2) there were overwhelmingly bad cyclical forces then that can overwhelm impact from FCI. We are at a steady state now with no such vulnerabilities" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 20:29:11 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@briangobosox You have to ask repeated questions like its a conversation. I find it pretty high in accuracy actually" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 17:27:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements