[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@DannyDayan5](/creator/twitter/DannyDayan5) "@SirRX_0 In theory the more top heavy we get the more insensitive to rate hikes thag we get and that equities/ & housing values become monetary policy. Dont tbink were anywhere near that yet"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948153748607598945) 2025-07-23 22:50:23 UTC 21.4K followers, XX engagements "@Rebecca98869736 Only if bonds reprice higher yields. We're pricing an inflation pop that leads to rate cuts. That's how ridiculously easy FCI is"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947752080266928596) 2025-07-22 20:14:18 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@SpringBrin589 @SpreadThread1 and we've had shenanigans in many other places (shitcos and other asset speculation)"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948003817544663047) 2025-07-23 12:54:36 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@SJOldValueGuy Time for healthcare Its so beaten up"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947768079301415173) 2025-07-22 21:17:52 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "November 1999. The labor market continues to tighten (UR XXX% today 4.1%) but the Fed is most concerned about the speculation in tech stocks. NDX has gone up by XX% in the last X months (today XX% in X months since the low). They hike XX bps to 5.5%"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945573521008046085) 2025-07-16 19:57:29 UTC 21.3K followers, 9677 engagements "@Citrini7 If you need to hedge something you have to use that asset class. Hedge dollar by buying puts on the dollar. I see people claiming assets are hedges for other asset classes all the time. Wouldnt pass a risk committee in any serious institution as correls are not reliable"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944459753645883462) 2025-07-13 18:11:46 UTC 21.4K followers, 4390 engagements "@passedpawn I think XX% of max short. JPY got cleaned up entirely and even turned short for election. EUR is still crowded but look at today. CFTC is not the entire market"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947767637577994481) 2025-07-22 21:16:07 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "Just a few short weeks ago the members of the recession black hole were panicking and loudly declaring that recession was imminent and the Fed is late. Silly kids. It was entirely a seasonal issue"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948405311385047141) 2025-07-24 15:30:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 5812 engagements "Potential GDP for the economy fell by X% this year. Unlike past periods where this was due to a shock this is by choice from the government. The impact of this remains poorly understand by most people"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946564525408333859) 2025-07-19 13:35:22 UTC 21.4K followers, 24.3K engagements "This will anger people. -monetary policy was never tight -inflation expectations are unanchored because Fed never finished the job -equities are going parabolic because policy is loose -the dollar is the key constraint for policy Yell away. I expect it"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1943427398726488212) 2025-07-10 21:49:33 UTC 21.4K followers, 107.2K engagements "@2levered @oren_cass Higher rates are needed because inflation expectations are unanchored and this shock is coming at a terrible time"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945439742205587557) 2025-07-16 11:05:53 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "Rate hikes work their way through the system by raising interest expense for households and businesses until they become so large that disc. spending and investments fall. Rates never reached restrictive levels. Rate cuts look very dangerous to me"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947985041612562912) 2025-07-23 11:40:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 15.4K engagements "@chamath @sidprabhu @eliant_capital what do you think guys Id say dollar falls 30-50% and 30y goes to XX% but maybe Im too conservative here"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947808876700581937) 2025-07-22 23:59:59 UTC 21.4K followers, 13.1K engagements "The unemployment rate is headed below 4%. I cant wait for the excuses from the bears. Birth-death model or maybe some astrology pattern or whatever else nonsense they can come up with. This will only be a surprise to people who dismiss FCI"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944888206773903717) 2025-07-14 22:34:17 UTC 21.3K followers, 35.4K engagements "@onefishtwofis20 @Dr_Gingerballs Not too young. I remember when the balance sheet was a non event and I was a young trader when they first introduced it and schooled the banks eco team on the impact from it"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948143229456810194) 2025-07-23 22:08:35 UTC 21.4K followers, XX engagements "@FedGuy12 Even if it was rigged I never understood why they couldnt have just fixed the process rather than go through the whole transition"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947989213900595494) 2025-07-23 11:56:35 UTC 21.4K followers, 1639 engagements "My view on tariff inflation is the supply side impacts are persistent. On the demand side it can go X ways: X. Demand destruction (consensus rate cuts) X. Rotation back and forth w/services (on hold) X. Wage demands (hike) X. Increased borrowing (hike) Too early to say"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945467038614352102) 2025-07-16 12:54:21 UTC 21.4K followers, 7343 engagements "@Solwoldjr74 Rates are not the issue. Prices are. As soon as people stop clamoring for cheap liquidity to solve every issue we can actually solve issues"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948368847414706584) 2025-07-24 13:05:06 UTC 21.4K followers, 1147 engagements "@phattyman44 Interesting but given how central bank demand has been the driver I wouldnt think that would drive it. Guess not"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948492651470487735) 2025-07-24 21:17:04 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@billnyebiscuit Relative to Jan 20th the policies suggest lower growth/higher inflation mix. Stagflationary but not 1970s stagflation. I still dont have a strong conviction on all of the impacts from AI yet on a macro basis. Might take years before we see thr productivity. Adoption is low"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946694342724485280) 2025-07-19 22:11:13 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@dan_rios83 @Ivan_Yuri_Rd Every survey has a partisan bias to it. Every single one. That's not new. Mean expectations were above X% under Biden and then rose further under Trump. Perfectly rational given tariffs. If it had been elevated in one and goes to X% in another I would be dismissing them"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946197936049635701) 2025-07-18 13:18:41 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@countdraghula Tariff front loading from existing inventory. Meanwhile look at supercore this month - tightening labor market. Even talking about cuts is idiotic at this stage"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946163814161936702) 2025-07-18 11:03:05 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "Bernanke and Yellen using the post WW2 argument for Fed independence. They are far smarter than me. Listen to them"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947338861492773174) 2025-07-21 16:52:19 UTC 21.3K followers, 2863 engagements "@kt_valueguy Im honestly struggling to come up with a reason and thats what I do for a living. I come up with bonds and inflation and market is just not worried about it right now"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947689673406771591) 2025-07-22 16:06:19 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@themarketradar No. Look at 2y around SVB or august last year. Too volatile"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946591806243614921) 2025-07-19 15:23:47 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@IlliquidInsight As ugly as it is to say recession cures housing affordability. Lower prices higher inventory lower rates"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948377114433994771) 2025-07-24 13:37:57 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@tecken_tan Lol this is one interesting thesis"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947706024711909657) 2025-07-22 17:11:17 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "The UK is an economy with building conflicts for its two mandates. Unemployment is rising while so is inflation. Brexit has resulted in a contraction to the supply side so it is prone to stagflationary situations. The Fed has no such conflict. I do not envy the BOE here"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947333750150598845) 2025-07-21 16:32:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 3051 engagements "For decades the benchmark has been the S&P. With policymakers showing disregard for inflation we need to consider all assets based on the compensation they provide for this risk. Bonds are terrible. Stocks and commods are the place to be"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944415772488450232) 2025-07-13 15:17:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 9718 engagements "@TXMCtrades Ofc has to be weighted which this is small and mostly includes credit cards. But even so looks like it's rolling over no All the banks have reported CC DQs down"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948075391907688835) 2025-07-23 17:39:01 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@MisterSpread I have been saying it for X months Multi year bear market"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947689967787929883) 2025-07-22 16:07:29 UTC 21.4K followers, 1449 engagements "@Solwoldjr74 Don't disagree but lowering rates is not appropriate here. That's the issue. To truly solve affordability requires a recession. Lower prices higher inventory lower rates"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948371582805495878) 2025-07-24 13:15:58 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "There has been fear that rising goods prices will crimp services consumption. There has been some of this in the last couple months but last week's data showed the opposite. Discretionary services categories were strong in retail sales and CPI showed rising prices"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947268595156648280) 2025-07-21 12:13:06 UTC 21.3K followers, 3672 engagements "@SirRX_0 @billnyebiscuit It's plausible but I don't know. We also have a higher proportion of people working multiple jobs and we may be miscounting hours"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948381360445423775) 2025-07-24 13:54:50 UTC 21.4K followers, XX engagements "@Gelubrin15 We did get oversold but it was a pretty darn modest relief rally"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947698542518145191) 2025-07-22 16:41:33 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs Why would bondholders demand higher rates for the long end if they cut Because cuts raise inflation. Interest income goes up every cycle. XX% in 80s XX% in 90s and XX% this cycle. Nothing new here"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948144678118826072) 2025-07-23 22:14:20 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@FrankPalmeri1 Interest income rises in every hiking cycle. No different here. What usually happens is they hike high enough to break the economy. Since that hasnt happened interest income persists but expense is not biting"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947995849667289173) 2025-07-23 12:22:57 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@DerivativesDon @somerealthought @passedpawn Im glad you brought up carry. X% negative per year and nobody mentions it"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948535824670462306) 2025-07-25 00:08:37 UTC 21.4K followers, 1013 engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs No they are not. And inflation has come down since they hiked which would not happen if they were. Interest income goes up in every hiking cycle. They just didnt hike far enough (or better yet use BS properly)"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948141018853056901) 2025-07-23 21:59:48 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@Ivan_Yuri_Rd @dan_rios83 I wish I had access to CPI swaps market. But yes I recommended to all clients who do to pay 2y and they're up XX bps so far. Easy money"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946202929007829058) 2025-07-18 13:38:31 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@jayskywalker16 Doesnt seem like a new immigration policy is coming. And yeah any onshoring is a maybe and even then a multi year story"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946574346043928652) 2025-07-19 14:14:24 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "Waller: Inflation expectations are well anchored but that's because I ignore all the evidence they aren't. Neither of the two mandates meet criteria for a cut but we should anyways because in my imagination neutral is 3%. In any other profession he would've been fired yday"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946184409813487887) 2025-07-18 12:24:56 UTC 21.3K followers, 9892 engagements "@RyanMiller_TE Lag for X years The sharp hikes were X years ago and last hike X years ago. Cmon"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948375098919923939) 2025-07-24 13:29:57 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@RobertPBalan1 I agree with all of them except Dollar. It's not really impacted by 10y but by 2y spreads which continue to price rate cuts in spite of CPI rises ahead. We are not a serious market"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947744304585408587) 2025-07-22 19:43:24 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "@AahanPrometheus Yes known issue. But again unemployment rate doesn't get revised and indicates the tightness. It just shows you we do not need many jobs to tighten it. So I just think all labor data needs to be compared to capacity. Example: continuing claims relative to labor force"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946222063884071359) 2025-07-18 14:54:33 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@BickerinBrattle Stop trying to troll when you know I do in fact know your thesis well. There's a way to engage in dialogue and there's this"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948377381489492014) 2025-07-24 13:39:01 UTC 21.4K followers, 1177 engagements "@briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring Lets use logic. What has actually changed from Q1 to Q2 Not much. 80BN tariffs collected doesnt drop demand by 2%. Uncertainty + FCI gives you the roadmap. You continue to dismiss at your own peril despite all the evidence"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946991766986715230) 2025-07-20 17:53:05 UTC 21.4K followers, 1093 engagements "@cautious3302 XXX% and falling unemployment rate due to lower capacity. Check my feed this is an important topic I have covered before that people keep missing"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945897041617396099) 2025-07-17 17:23:02 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "Equities look exhausted but I can't imagine too much downside when the dollar is this weak and bonds bid for no reason"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947679439145369890) 2025-07-22 15:25:39 UTC 21.4K followers, 17.1K engagements "@jayskywalker16 Correct. It is a systematic model based trading strategy and I enter only when dislocated. Signals are valid for up to two weeks. It did say to buy in April and once it has returned to fair value that is an exit"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947645207056683504) 2025-07-22 13:09:37 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "Inflation is rising and unemployment is falling. A truly data dependent Fed would be hawkish. They say they are neutral but neutral is not projecting rate cuts at every meeting for X years and talking about it at every speech. This is why the Fed has not tamed inflation"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945837139054182699) 2025-07-17 13:25:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 19.1K engagements "@NickTimiraos I find this whole story so ridiculous. The Fed funds its budget itself. It did not ask Congress for money. So now we found out the budget overrun is partly because the White House wanted a more expensive marble. These attacks just look really stupid"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948462742098378962) 2025-07-24 19:18:13 UTC 21.4K followers, 2266 engagements "Even with all of the noise around crypto of late due to the Genius act and even some big whale transactions my BTC model continues to nail the big movements. It says we are at fair value at the moment"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947641084454084982) 2025-07-22 12:53:14 UTC 21.4K followers, 4305 engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs Inflation going up had zero to do with the hikes"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948142845694717997) 2025-07-23 22:07:03 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements "For the life of me I still don't understand why healthcare inflation is so disconnected from reality. Healthcare spending rose by XXX% in 2023 and estimated to grow X% per year for the next decade yet PCE inflation has it at 2.5%. Real world inflation measured"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944746704160326134) 2025-07-14 13:12:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 15.4K engagements "@robert41405 Depends what the dollar does. With this White House dollar probably keeps falling and importing more and more inflation"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945944644996476994) 2025-07-17 20:32:11 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "Despite the sharpest hiking cycle in decades housing wealth is at the highest levels ever. According to the Nobel Laureate Pulte we should pursue enabling the biggest housing bubble of all time"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948362529002176989) 2025-07-24 12:40:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 19.2K engagements "@RyanMiller_TE Cool let them lag. Housing is not in need of rescue because prices fall a little after a XX% ramp in X years"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948382394442043541) 2025-07-24 13:58:56 UTC 21.4K followers, XX engagements "@briangobosox You have to ask repeated questions like its a conversation. I find it pretty high in accuracy actually"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946622896559854031) 2025-07-19 17:27:19 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@DannyDayan5
"@SirRX_0 In theory the more top heavy we get the more insensitive to rate hikes thag we get and that equities/ & housing values become monetary policy. Dont tbink were anywhere near that yet"
@DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 22:50:23 UTC 21.4K followers, XX engagements
"@Rebecca98869736 Only if bonds reprice higher yields. We're pricing an inflation pop that leads to rate cuts. That's how ridiculously easy FCI is" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 20:14:18 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@SpringBrin589 @SpreadThread1 and we've had shenanigans in many other places (shitcos and other asset speculation)" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 12:54:36 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@SJOldValueGuy Time for healthcare Its so beaten up" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 21:17:52 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"November 1999. The labor market continues to tighten (UR XXX% today 4.1%) but the Fed is most concerned about the speculation in tech stocks. NDX has gone up by XX% in the last X months (today XX% in X months since the low). They hike XX bps to 5.5%" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 19:57:29 UTC 21.3K followers, 9677 engagements
"@Citrini7 If you need to hedge something you have to use that asset class. Hedge dollar by buying puts on the dollar. I see people claiming assets are hedges for other asset classes all the time. Wouldnt pass a risk committee in any serious institution as correls are not reliable" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-13 18:11:46 UTC 21.4K followers, 4390 engagements
"@passedpawn I think XX% of max short. JPY got cleaned up entirely and even turned short for election. EUR is still crowded but look at today. CFTC is not the entire market" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 21:16:07 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Just a few short weeks ago the members of the recession black hole were panicking and loudly declaring that recession was imminent and the Fed is late. Silly kids. It was entirely a seasonal issue" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 15:30:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 5812 engagements
"Potential GDP for the economy fell by X% this year. Unlike past periods where this was due to a shock this is by choice from the government. The impact of this remains poorly understand by most people" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 13:35:22 UTC 21.4K followers, 24.3K engagements
"This will anger people. -monetary policy was never tight -inflation expectations are unanchored because Fed never finished the job -equities are going parabolic because policy is loose -the dollar is the key constraint for policy Yell away. I expect it" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-10 21:49:33 UTC 21.4K followers, 107.2K engagements
"@2levered @oren_cass Higher rates are needed because inflation expectations are unanchored and this shock is coming at a terrible time" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 11:05:53 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Rate hikes work their way through the system by raising interest expense for households and businesses until they become so large that disc. spending and investments fall. Rates never reached restrictive levels. Rate cuts look very dangerous to me" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 11:40:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 15.4K engagements
"@chamath @sidprabhu @eliant_capital what do you think guys Id say dollar falls 30-50% and 30y goes to XX% but maybe Im too conservative here" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 23:59:59 UTC 21.4K followers, 13.1K engagements
"The unemployment rate is headed below 4%. I cant wait for the excuses from the bears. Birth-death model or maybe some astrology pattern or whatever else nonsense they can come up with. This will only be a surprise to people who dismiss FCI" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-14 22:34:17 UTC 21.3K followers, 35.4K engagements
"@onefishtwofis20 @Dr_Gingerballs Not too young. I remember when the balance sheet was a non event and I was a young trader when they first introduced it and schooled the banks eco team on the impact from it" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 22:08:35 UTC 21.4K followers, XX engagements
"@FedGuy12 Even if it was rigged I never understood why they couldnt have just fixed the process rather than go through the whole transition" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 11:56:35 UTC 21.4K followers, 1639 engagements
"My view on tariff inflation is the supply side impacts are persistent. On the demand side it can go X ways: X. Demand destruction (consensus rate cuts) X. Rotation back and forth w/services (on hold) X. Wage demands (hike) X. Increased borrowing (hike) Too early to say" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 12:54:21 UTC 21.4K followers, 7343 engagements
"@Solwoldjr74 Rates are not the issue. Prices are. As soon as people stop clamoring for cheap liquidity to solve every issue we can actually solve issues" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 13:05:06 UTC 21.4K followers, 1147 engagements
"@phattyman44 Interesting but given how central bank demand has been the driver I wouldnt think that would drive it. Guess not" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 21:17:04 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@billnyebiscuit Relative to Jan 20th the policies suggest lower growth/higher inflation mix. Stagflationary but not 1970s stagflation. I still dont have a strong conviction on all of the impacts from AI yet on a macro basis. Might take years before we see thr productivity. Adoption is low" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 22:11:13 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@dan_rios83 @Ivan_Yuri_Rd Every survey has a partisan bias to it. Every single one. That's not new. Mean expectations were above X% under Biden and then rose further under Trump. Perfectly rational given tariffs. If it had been elevated in one and goes to X% in another I would be dismissing them" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 13:18:41 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@countdraghula Tariff front loading from existing inventory. Meanwhile look at supercore this month - tightening labor market. Even talking about cuts is idiotic at this stage" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 11:03:05 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Bernanke and Yellen using the post WW2 argument for Fed independence. They are far smarter than me. Listen to them" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-21 16:52:19 UTC 21.3K followers, 2863 engagements
"@kt_valueguy Im honestly struggling to come up with a reason and thats what I do for a living. I come up with bonds and inflation and market is just not worried about it right now" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 16:06:19 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@themarketradar No. Look at 2y around SVB or august last year. Too volatile" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 15:23:47 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@IlliquidInsight As ugly as it is to say recession cures housing affordability. Lower prices higher inventory lower rates" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 13:37:57 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@tecken_tan Lol this is one interesting thesis" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 17:11:17 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"The UK is an economy with building conflicts for its two mandates. Unemployment is rising while so is inflation. Brexit has resulted in a contraction to the supply side so it is prone to stagflationary situations. The Fed has no such conflict. I do not envy the BOE here" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-21 16:32:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 3051 engagements
"For decades the benchmark has been the S&P. With policymakers showing disregard for inflation we need to consider all assets based on the compensation they provide for this risk. Bonds are terrible. Stocks and commods are the place to be" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-13 15:17:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 9718 engagements
"@TXMCtrades Ofc has to be weighted which this is small and mostly includes credit cards. But even so looks like it's rolling over no All the banks have reported CC DQs down" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 17:39:01 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@MisterSpread I have been saying it for X months Multi year bear market" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 16:07:29 UTC 21.4K followers, 1449 engagements
"@Solwoldjr74 Don't disagree but lowering rates is not appropriate here. That's the issue. To truly solve affordability requires a recession. Lower prices higher inventory lower rates" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 13:15:58 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"There has been fear that rising goods prices will crimp services consumption. There has been some of this in the last couple months but last week's data showed the opposite. Discretionary services categories were strong in retail sales and CPI showed rising prices" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-21 12:13:06 UTC 21.3K followers, 3672 engagements
"@SirRX_0 @billnyebiscuit It's plausible but I don't know. We also have a higher proportion of people working multiple jobs and we may be miscounting hours" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 13:54:50 UTC 21.4K followers, XX engagements
"@Gelubrin15 We did get oversold but it was a pretty darn modest relief rally" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 16:41:33 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs Why would bondholders demand higher rates for the long end if they cut Because cuts raise inflation. Interest income goes up every cycle. XX% in 80s XX% in 90s and XX% this cycle. Nothing new here" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 22:14:20 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@FrankPalmeri1 Interest income rises in every hiking cycle. No different here. What usually happens is they hike high enough to break the economy. Since that hasnt happened interest income persists but expense is not biting" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 12:22:57 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@DerivativesDon @somerealthought @passedpawn Im glad you brought up carry. X% negative per year and nobody mentions it" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-25 00:08:37 UTC 21.4K followers, 1013 engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs No they are not. And inflation has come down since they hiked which would not happen if they were. Interest income goes up in every hiking cycle. They just didnt hike far enough (or better yet use BS properly)" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 21:59:48 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@Ivan_Yuri_Rd @dan_rios83 I wish I had access to CPI swaps market. But yes I recommended to all clients who do to pay 2y and they're up XX bps so far. Easy money" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 13:38:31 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@jayskywalker16 Doesnt seem like a new immigration policy is coming. And yeah any onshoring is a maybe and even then a multi year story" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 14:14:24 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Waller: Inflation expectations are well anchored but that's because I ignore all the evidence they aren't. Neither of the two mandates meet criteria for a cut but we should anyways because in my imagination neutral is 3%. In any other profession he would've been fired yday" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 12:24:56 UTC 21.3K followers, 9892 engagements
"@RyanMiller_TE Lag for X years The sharp hikes were X years ago and last hike X years ago. Cmon" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 13:29:57 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@RobertPBalan1 I agree with all of them except Dollar. It's not really impacted by 10y but by 2y spreads which continue to price rate cuts in spite of CPI rises ahead. We are not a serious market" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 19:43:24 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@AahanPrometheus Yes known issue. But again unemployment rate doesn't get revised and indicates the tightness. It just shows you we do not need many jobs to tighten it. So I just think all labor data needs to be compared to capacity. Example: continuing claims relative to labor force" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 14:54:33 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@BickerinBrattle Stop trying to troll when you know I do in fact know your thesis well. There's a way to engage in dialogue and there's this" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 13:39:01 UTC 21.4K followers, 1177 engagements
"@briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring Lets use logic. What has actually changed from Q1 to Q2 Not much. 80BN tariffs collected doesnt drop demand by 2%. Uncertainty + FCI gives you the roadmap. You continue to dismiss at your own peril despite all the evidence" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-20 17:53:05 UTC 21.4K followers, 1093 engagements
"@cautious3302 XXX% and falling unemployment rate due to lower capacity. Check my feed this is an important topic I have covered before that people keep missing" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 17:23:02 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"Equities look exhausted but I can't imagine too much downside when the dollar is this weak and bonds bid for no reason" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 15:25:39 UTC 21.4K followers, 17.1K engagements
"@jayskywalker16 Correct. It is a systematic model based trading strategy and I enter only when dislocated. Signals are valid for up to two weeks. It did say to buy in April and once it has returned to fair value that is an exit" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 13:09:37 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Inflation is rising and unemployment is falling. A truly data dependent Fed would be hawkish. They say they are neutral but neutral is not projecting rate cuts at every meeting for X years and talking about it at every speech. This is why the Fed has not tamed inflation" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 13:25:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 19.1K engagements
"@NickTimiraos I find this whole story so ridiculous. The Fed funds its budget itself. It did not ask Congress for money. So now we found out the budget overrun is partly because the White House wanted a more expensive marble. These attacks just look really stupid" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 19:18:13 UTC 21.4K followers, 2266 engagements
"Even with all of the noise around crypto of late due to the Genius act and even some big whale transactions my BTC model continues to nail the big movements. It says we are at fair value at the moment" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 12:53:14 UTC 21.4K followers, 4305 engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs Inflation going up had zero to do with the hikes" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 22:07:03 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements
"For the life of me I still don't understand why healthcare inflation is so disconnected from reality. Healthcare spending rose by XXX% in 2023 and estimated to grow X% per year for the next decade yet PCE inflation has it at 2.5%. Real world inflation measured" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-14 13:12:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 15.4K engagements
"@robert41405 Depends what the dollar does. With this White House dollar probably keeps falling and importing more and more inflation" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 20:32:11 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"Despite the sharpest hiking cycle in decades housing wealth is at the highest levels ever. According to the Nobel Laureate Pulte we should pursue enabling the biggest housing bubble of all time" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 12:40:00 UTC 21.4K followers, 19.2K engagements
"@RyanMiller_TE Cool let them lag. Housing is not in need of rescue because prices fall a little after a XX% ramp in X years" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-24 13:58:56 UTC 21.4K followers, XX engagements
"@briangobosox You have to ask repeated questions like its a conversation. I find it pretty high in accuracy actually" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 17:27:19 UTC 21.4K followers, XXX engagements