[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @DannyDayan5 Danny Dayan Danny Dayan posts on X about inflation, fed, rates, tariffs the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXXX +7.40% - X Months XXXXXXXXX +91% - X Year XXXXXXXXX +161% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/posts_active)  - X Week XXX -XX% - X Month XXX +70% - X Months XXX +16% - X Year XXXXX +137% ### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/followers)  - X Week XXXXXX +0.36% - X Month XXXXXX +2.80% - X Months XXXXXX +26% - X Year XXXXXX +68% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) XXXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [inflation](/topic/inflation) 6.9%, [fed](/topic/fed) 4.14%, [rates](/topic/rates) 2.76%, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) 2.76%, [all the](/topic/all-the) 2.07%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) 1.38%, [trump coin](/topic/trump-coin) 0.69%, [spirits](/topic/spirits) 0.69%, [melania](/topic/melania) 0.69%, [coins](/topic/coins) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@dampedspring](/creator/undefined) [@briangobosox](/creator/undefined) [@epbresearch](/creator/undefined) [@toiletkingcap](/creator/undefined) [@gelubrin15](/creator/undefined) [@bull422](/creator/undefined) [@spreadthread1](/creator/undefined) [@fkronawitter1](/creator/undefined) [@bijusdamodaran](/creator/undefined) [@hoodlifting](/creator/undefined) [@hsri07](/creator/undefined) [@robert41405](/creator/undefined) [@countdraghula](/creator/undefined) [@sereneinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@tylermacro10](/creator/undefined) [@blacklioncta](/creator/undefined) [@jayskywalker16](/creator/undefined) [@drgingerballs](/creator/undefined) [@tonyishere4you](/creator/undefined) [@profplum99](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Fartcoin (FARTCOIN)](/topic/fartcoin) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::1580608068152426502/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "@willemijn_arjen @TonyIsHere4You Shadow chair is not the issue. The issue is the writing is on the wall that well get a stooge who cuts rates regardless of conditions. Preventing that would require a Fed civil war. Unlikely"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1943102803951403220) 2025-07-10 00:19:44 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@sheeesh_yall @BijuSDamodaran @dampedspring @McclartyPhilip @briangobosox Honestly thats the term crypto people use for alt coins like Fartcoin trump coin Melania coin. I didnt invent the term. Youre focusing on the wrong thing here. Are they flying Yes. What does thag say about animal spirits"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947052307486498903) 2025-07-20 21:53:39 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@Rebecca98869736 Only if bonds reprice higher yields. We're pricing an inflation pop that leads to rate cuts. That's how ridiculously easy FCI is"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947752080266928596) 2025-07-22 20:14:18 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@SpringBrin589 @SpreadThread1 and we've had shenanigans in many other places (shitcos and other asset speculation)"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1948003817544663047) 2025-07-23 12:54:36 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "Equilibrium between SPX: 10y from an FCI framework would be 5.05%. This would merely neutralize FCI not even tighten it. The Fed is indeed late.to hiking rates not cutting. Thank you for your attention to this matter"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945936546269372646) 2025-07-17 20:00:01 UTC 21.3K followers, 12.9K engagements "@SJOldValueGuy Time for healthcare Its so beaten up"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947768079301415173) 2025-07-22 21:17:52 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@Citrini7 If you need to hedge something you have to use that asset class. Hedge dollar by buying puts on the dollar. I see people claiming assets are hedges for other asset classes all the time. Wouldnt pass a risk committee in any serious institution as correls are not reliable"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944459753645883462) 2025-07-13 18:11:46 UTC 21.3K followers, 4382 engagements "@passedpawn I think XX% of max short. JPY got cleaned up entirely and even turned short for election. EUR is still crowded but look at today. CFTC is not the entire market"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947767637577994481) 2025-07-22 21:16:07 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@Arbitrage_econs Conference board literally confirms it. CPI swaps all moving higher. I do not agree with you"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946211681903813080) 2025-07-18 14:13:18 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@dampedspring @McclartyPhilip @briangobosox We indeed are on completely different pages. Youve been buying front end and shorting stocks and I see value in opposite. We are not aligned at present"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947017815627637090) 2025-07-20 19:36:35 UTC 21.3K followers, 2225 engagements "@RodneyRRG Financial conditions are very easy like 2021 easy. Using an equilibrium approach the 10y would need to rise to XXXX just to neutralize impact from equities. X% in the past would have been a tightening"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945995342912061882) 2025-07-17 23:53:39 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@HoodLifting Completely disagree. Proven easily. I share this with my clients and theyre ahead of the curve on these topics"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946612942574653804) 2025-07-19 16:47:46 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring LOL I wont play the insult game but heres an insult anyways. You said in august on Erics show that you were long 10y notes since 2022. Even said you held through the X% selloff which was scary. Thats fine lie about it I dont care. Youre full of shit"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947051248517067028) 2025-07-20 21:49:26 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@Arbitrage_econs Great so you can't respond to the evidence that disproved what you said but you send a chart of something already know. It fell today to levels that would still be highest in XX years and we celebrate Yay"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946210682216538357) 2025-07-18 14:09:20 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "@dampedspring @McclartyPhilip @briangobosox FCI yes. We dont have the other drivers (7% wages or cash handouts) though. FCI isnt the only thing out there that impacts the economy"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947016470392643737) 2025-07-20 19:31:15 UTC 21.3K followers, 1322 engagements "@SpreadThread1 @SereneInvesting @briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring Thats fair. My own view is we wont see the demand response to tariffs until Q4. What weve seen thus far is sentiment/uncertainty/vibes"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947017185546625268) 2025-07-20 19:34:05 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "Potential GDP for the economy fell by X% this year. Unlike past periods where this was due to a shock this is by choice from the government. The impact of this remains poorly understand by most people"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946564525408333859) 2025-07-19 13:35:22 UTC 21.3K followers, 24.2K engagements "This will anger people. -monetary policy was never tight -inflation expectations are unanchored because Fed never finished the job -equities are going parabolic because policy is loose -the dollar is the key constraint for policy Yell away. I expect it"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1943427398726488212) 2025-07-10 21:49:33 UTC 21.3K followers, 107.2K engagements "@briangobosox @dampedspring FCI tightened from mid February to mid April. FCI has loosened since mid April to the equivalent of 2021 levels. Youre welcome"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946987730455429267) 2025-07-20 17:37:02 UTC 21.3K followers, 1249 engagements "Rate hikes work their way through the system by raising interest expense for households and businesses until they become so large that disc. spending and investments fall. Rates never reached restrictive levels. Rate cuts look very dangerous to me"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947985041612562912) 2025-07-23 11:40:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 6884 engagements "@toiletkingcap Its the impact from end of immigration. Theres additional contraction in supply side from tariffs but that will take longer to play out"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946574128246312973) 2025-07-19 14:13:32 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "The unemployment rate is headed below 4%. I cant wait for the excuses from the bears. Birth-death model or maybe some astrology pattern or whatever else nonsense they can come up with. This will only be a surprise to people who dismiss FCI"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944888206773903717) 2025-07-14 22:34:17 UTC 21.3K followers, 35.3K engagements "@FedGuy12 Even if it was rigged I never understood why they couldnt have just fixed the process rather than go through the whole transition"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947989213900595494) 2025-07-23 11:56:35 UTC 21.3K followers, 1207 engagements "@dampedspring Brazil's trade balance is flat with the US lol"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1943043109920653713) 2025-07-09 20:22:32 UTC 21.3K followers, 2777 engagements "@billnyebiscuit Relative to Jan 20th the policies suggest lower growth/higher inflation mix. Stagflationary but not 1970s stagflation. I still dont have a strong conviction on all of the impacts from AI yet on a macro basis. Might take years before we see thr productivity. Adoption is low"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946694342724485280) 2025-07-19 22:11:13 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "Bernanke and Yellen using the post WW2 argument for Fed independence. They are far smarter than me. Listen to them"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947338861492773174) 2025-07-21 16:52:19 UTC 21.3K followers, 2830 engagements "@kt_valueguy Im honestly struggling to come up with a reason and thats what I do for a living. I come up with bonds and inflation and market is just not worried about it right now"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947689673406771591) 2025-07-22 16:06:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@SereneInvesting @SpreadThread1 @briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring This could happen if we had a shock or break in the economy. COVID 2008 style credit shock or a sharp labor shock would make small FCI moves mostly ineffective. The reason FCI is so clearly the driver of sequential growth is weve been in a steady state eco for XXX years"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947012896942170438) 2025-07-20 19:17:03 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@themarketradar No. Look at 2y around SVB or august last year. Too volatile"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946591806243614921) 2025-07-19 15:23:47 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@tdarling1 It definitely came in lower yesterday than expected. Survey date was June XX so before July 9th tariffs announcements. So lets see if it goes back up next month. So far Id say it has reflected liberation day + taco stuff well in both directions"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946570072731873443) 2025-07-19 13:57:25 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "The UK is an economy with building conflicts for its two mandates. Unemployment is rising while so is inflation. Brexit has resulted in a contraction to the supply side so it is prone to stagflationary situations. The Fed has no such conflict. I do not envy the BOE here"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947333750150598845) 2025-07-21 16:32:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 3026 engagements "For decades the benchmark has been the S&P. With policymakers showing disregard for inflation we need to consider all assets based on the compensation they provide for this risk. Bonds are terrible. Stocks and commods are the place to be"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944415772488450232) 2025-07-13 15:17:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 9688 engagements "@tolstoybb @toiletkingcap deferring to the toilet king for confirmation"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945524323323675075) 2025-07-16 16:41:59 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@MisterSpread I have been saying it for X months Multi year bear market"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947689967787929883) 2025-07-22 16:07:29 UTC 21.3K followers, 1429 engagements "There has been fear that rising goods prices will crimp services consumption. There has been some of this in the last couple months but last week's data showed the opposite. Discretionary services categories were strong in retail sales and CPI showed rising prices"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947268595156648280) 2025-07-21 12:13:06 UTC 21.3K followers, 3654 engagements "@Gelubrin15 We did get oversold but it was a pretty darn modest relief rally"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947698542518145191) 2025-07-22 16:41:33 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@FrankPalmeri1 Interest income rises in every hiking cycle. No different here. What usually happens is they hike high enough to break the economy. Since that hasnt happened interest income persists but expense is not biting"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947995849667289173) 2025-07-23 12:22:57 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@jayskywalker16 Doesnt seem like a new immigration policy is coming. And yeah any onshoring is a maybe and even then a multi year story"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946574346043928652) 2025-07-19 14:14:24 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@EPBResearch Unemployment rate yes FCI tightening household debt service ratios rising household savings rates rising . Many such ways to see the impact from those hikes. Compare the below in 2000 and 2007 to today. Rates are not biting. Hence the dominance of FCI"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945947697581818234) 2025-07-17 20:44:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@prpl8 @rev_cap @TheStalwart Let me clarify: they understand it as a concept but don't know how to model it into their policy framework"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946193822947430900) 2025-07-18 13:02:20 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements "Waller: Inflation expectations are well anchored but that's because I ignore all the evidence they aren't. Neither of the two mandates meet criteria for a cut but we should anyways because in my imagination neutral is 3%. In any other profession he would've been fired yday"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946184409813487887) 2025-07-18 12:24:56 UTC 21.3K followers, 9877 engagements "@AahanPrometheus I see us growing well above benchmark rates. Nowhere near contraction. Capacity is down from 200k/month to 80k now. We don't need many jobs to tighten the labor market"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946211068780351714) 2025-07-18 14:10:52 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@RobertPBalan1 I agree with all of them except Dollar. It's not really impacted by 10y but by 2y spreads which continue to price rate cuts in spite of CPI rises ahead. We are not a serious market"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947744304585408587) 2025-07-22 19:43:24 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@AahanPrometheus Yes known issue. But again unemployment rate doesn't get revised and indicates the tightness. It just shows you we do not need many jobs to tighten it. So I just think all labor data needs to be compared to capacity. Example: continuing claims relative to labor force"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946222063884071359) 2025-07-18 14:54:33 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "@briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring Lets use logic. What has actually changed from Q1 to Q2 Not much. 80BN tariffs collected doesnt drop demand by 2%. Uncertainty + FCI gives you the roadmap. You continue to dismiss at your own peril despite all the evidence"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946991766986715230) 2025-07-20 17:53:05 UTC 21.3K followers, 1090 engagements "@briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring Yes to first question. Q4 data was also strong due to FCI loosening in August/september. Uncertainty and FCI shock to second as Ive answered 4x by now. Now look to Q3. If it surprises to the upside will you finally admit how FCI drives sequential growth"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946998328019099804) 2025-07-20 18:19:09 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "Equities look exhausted but I can't imagine too much downside when the dollar is this weak and bonds bid for no reason"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947679439145369890) 2025-07-22 15:25:39 UTC 21.3K followers, 16.5K engagements "@jayskywalker16 Correct. It is a systematic model based trading strategy and I enter only when dislocated. Signals are valid for up to two weeks. It did say to buy in April and once it has returned to fair value that is an exit"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947645207056683504) 2025-07-22 13:09:37 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements "Inflation is rising and unemployment is falling. A truly data dependent Fed would be hawkish. They say they are neutral but neutral is not projecting rate cuts at every meeting for X years and talking about it at every speech. This is why the Fed has not tamed inflation"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945837139054182699) 2025-07-17 13:25:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 19.1K engagements "Even with all of the noise around crypto of late due to the Genius act and even some big whale transactions my BTC model continues to nail the big movements. It says we are at fair value at the moment"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1947641084454084982) 2025-07-22 12:53:14 UTC 21.3K followers, 4117 engagements "@NickTimiraos Since his prior speech: -unemployment rate fell -JOLTs improved -quits rose layoffs fell -jobless claims fell -inflation breakevens sharply higher -FCI has loosened further. Hes not data dependent. If a second wave happens he should be forced to pay back his salary"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1945977795303149792) 2025-07-17 22:43:55 UTC 21.3K followers, 8404 engagements "For the life of me I still don't understand why healthcare inflation is so disconnected from reality. Healthcare spending rose by XXX% in 2023 and estimated to grow X% per year for the next decade yet PCE inflation has it at 2.5%. Real world inflation measured"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1944746704160326134) 2025-07-14 13:12:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 15.3K engagements "@briangobosox You have to ask repeated questions like its a conversation. I find it pretty high in accuracy actually"  [@DannyDayan5](/creator/x/DannyDayan5) on [X](/post/tweet/1946622896559854031) 2025-07-19 17:27:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@DannyDayan5 Danny Dayan
Danny Dayan posts on X about inflation, fed, rates, tariffs the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXX +7.40%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +91%
- X Year XXXXXXXXX +161%
Mentions: XX #
- X Week XXX -XX%
- X Month XXX +70%
- X Months XXX +16%
- X Year XXXXX +137%
Followers: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXX +0.36%
- X Month XXXXXX +2.80%
- X Months XXXXXX +26%
- X Year XXXXXX +68%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence finance XXXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% currencies XXXX%
Social topic influence inflation 6.9%, fed 4.14%, rates 2.76%, tariffs 2.76%, all the 2.07%, stocks 1.38%, trump coin 0.69%, spirits 0.69%, melania 0.69%, coins XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @dampedspring @briangobosox @epbresearch @toiletkingcap @gelubrin15 @bull422 @spreadthread1 @fkronawitter1 @bijusdamodaran @hoodlifting @hsri07 @robert41405 @countdraghula @sereneinvesting @tylermacro10 @blacklioncta @jayskywalker16 @drgingerballs @tonyishere4you @profplum99
Top assets mentioned Fartcoin (FARTCOIN)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"@willemijn_arjen @TonyIsHere4You Shadow chair is not the issue. The issue is the writing is on the wall that well get a stooge who cuts rates regardless of conditions. Preventing that would require a Fed civil war. Unlikely"
@DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-10 00:19:44 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@sheeesh_yall @BijuSDamodaran @dampedspring @McclartyPhilip @briangobosox Honestly thats the term crypto people use for alt coins like Fartcoin trump coin Melania coin. I didnt invent the term. Youre focusing on the wrong thing here. Are they flying Yes. What does thag say about animal spirits" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-20 21:53:39 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@Rebecca98869736 Only if bonds reprice higher yields. We're pricing an inflation pop that leads to rate cuts. That's how ridiculously easy FCI is" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 20:14:18 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@SpringBrin589 @SpreadThread1 and we've had shenanigans in many other places (shitcos and other asset speculation)" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 12:54:36 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Equilibrium between SPX: 10y from an FCI framework would be 5.05%. This would merely neutralize FCI not even tighten it. The Fed is indeed late.to hiking rates not cutting. Thank you for your attention to this matter" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 20:00:01 UTC 21.3K followers, 12.9K engagements
"@SJOldValueGuy Time for healthcare Its so beaten up" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 21:17:52 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@Citrini7 If you need to hedge something you have to use that asset class. Hedge dollar by buying puts on the dollar. I see people claiming assets are hedges for other asset classes all the time. Wouldnt pass a risk committee in any serious institution as correls are not reliable" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-13 18:11:46 UTC 21.3K followers, 4382 engagements
"@passedpawn I think XX% of max short. JPY got cleaned up entirely and even turned short for election. EUR is still crowded but look at today. CFTC is not the entire market" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 21:16:07 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@Arbitrage_econs Conference board literally confirms it. CPI swaps all moving higher. I do not agree with you" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 14:13:18 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@dampedspring @McclartyPhilip @briangobosox We indeed are on completely different pages. Youve been buying front end and shorting stocks and I see value in opposite. We are not aligned at present" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-20 19:36:35 UTC 21.3K followers, 2225 engagements
"@RodneyRRG Financial conditions are very easy like 2021 easy. Using an equilibrium approach the 10y would need to rise to XXXX just to neutralize impact from equities. X% in the past would have been a tightening" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 23:53:39 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@HoodLifting Completely disagree. Proven easily. I share this with my clients and theyre ahead of the curve on these topics" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 16:47:46 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring LOL I wont play the insult game but heres an insult anyways. You said in august on Erics show that you were long 10y notes since 2022. Even said you held through the X% selloff which was scary. Thats fine lie about it I dont care. Youre full of shit" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-20 21:49:26 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@Arbitrage_econs Great so you can't respond to the evidence that disproved what you said but you send a chart of something already know. It fell today to levels that would still be highest in XX years and we celebrate Yay" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 14:09:20 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"@dampedspring @McclartyPhilip @briangobosox FCI yes. We dont have the other drivers (7% wages or cash handouts) though. FCI isnt the only thing out there that impacts the economy" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-20 19:31:15 UTC 21.3K followers, 1322 engagements
"@SpreadThread1 @SereneInvesting @briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring Thats fair. My own view is we wont see the demand response to tariffs until Q4. What weve seen thus far is sentiment/uncertainty/vibes" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-20 19:34:05 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Potential GDP for the economy fell by X% this year. Unlike past periods where this was due to a shock this is by choice from the government. The impact of this remains poorly understand by most people" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 13:35:22 UTC 21.3K followers, 24.2K engagements
"This will anger people. -monetary policy was never tight -inflation expectations are unanchored because Fed never finished the job -equities are going parabolic because policy is loose -the dollar is the key constraint for policy Yell away. I expect it" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-10 21:49:33 UTC 21.3K followers, 107.2K engagements
"@briangobosox @dampedspring FCI tightened from mid February to mid April. FCI has loosened since mid April to the equivalent of 2021 levels. Youre welcome" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-20 17:37:02 UTC 21.3K followers, 1249 engagements
"Rate hikes work their way through the system by raising interest expense for households and businesses until they become so large that disc. spending and investments fall. Rates never reached restrictive levels. Rate cuts look very dangerous to me" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 11:40:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 6884 engagements
"@toiletkingcap Its the impact from end of immigration. Theres additional contraction in supply side from tariffs but that will take longer to play out" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 14:13:32 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"The unemployment rate is headed below 4%. I cant wait for the excuses from the bears. Birth-death model or maybe some astrology pattern or whatever else nonsense they can come up with. This will only be a surprise to people who dismiss FCI" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-14 22:34:17 UTC 21.3K followers, 35.3K engagements
"@FedGuy12 Even if it was rigged I never understood why they couldnt have just fixed the process rather than go through the whole transition" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 11:56:35 UTC 21.3K followers, 1207 engagements
"@dampedspring Brazil's trade balance is flat with the US lol" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-09 20:22:32 UTC 21.3K followers, 2777 engagements
"@billnyebiscuit Relative to Jan 20th the policies suggest lower growth/higher inflation mix. Stagflationary but not 1970s stagflation. I still dont have a strong conviction on all of the impacts from AI yet on a macro basis. Might take years before we see thr productivity. Adoption is low" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 22:11:13 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Bernanke and Yellen using the post WW2 argument for Fed independence. They are far smarter than me. Listen to them" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-21 16:52:19 UTC 21.3K followers, 2830 engagements
"@kt_valueguy Im honestly struggling to come up with a reason and thats what I do for a living. I come up with bonds and inflation and market is just not worried about it right now" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 16:06:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@SereneInvesting @SpreadThread1 @briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring This could happen if we had a shock or break in the economy. COVID 2008 style credit shock or a sharp labor shock would make small FCI moves mostly ineffective. The reason FCI is so clearly the driver of sequential growth is weve been in a steady state eco for XXX years" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-20 19:17:03 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@themarketradar No. Look at 2y around SVB or august last year. Too volatile" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 15:23:47 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@tdarling1 It definitely came in lower yesterday than expected. Survey date was June XX so before July 9th tariffs announcements. So lets see if it goes back up next month. So far Id say it has reflected liberation day + taco stuff well in both directions" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 13:57:25 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"The UK is an economy with building conflicts for its two mandates. Unemployment is rising while so is inflation. Brexit has resulted in a contraction to the supply side so it is prone to stagflationary situations. The Fed has no such conflict. I do not envy the BOE here" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-21 16:32:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 3026 engagements
"For decades the benchmark has been the S&P. With policymakers showing disregard for inflation we need to consider all assets based on the compensation they provide for this risk. Bonds are terrible. Stocks and commods are the place to be" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-13 15:17:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 9688 engagements
"@tolstoybb @toiletkingcap deferring to the toilet king for confirmation" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-16 16:41:59 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@MisterSpread I have been saying it for X months Multi year bear market" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 16:07:29 UTC 21.3K followers, 1429 engagements
"There has been fear that rising goods prices will crimp services consumption. There has been some of this in the last couple months but last week's data showed the opposite. Discretionary services categories were strong in retail sales and CPI showed rising prices" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-21 12:13:06 UTC 21.3K followers, 3654 engagements
"@Gelubrin15 We did get oversold but it was a pretty darn modest relief rally" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 16:41:33 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@FrankPalmeri1 Interest income rises in every hiking cycle. No different here. What usually happens is they hike high enough to break the economy. Since that hasnt happened interest income persists but expense is not biting" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-23 12:22:57 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@jayskywalker16 Doesnt seem like a new immigration policy is coming. And yeah any onshoring is a maybe and even then a multi year story" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 14:14:24 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@EPBResearch Unemployment rate yes FCI tightening household debt service ratios rising household savings rates rising . Many such ways to see the impact from those hikes. Compare the below in 2000 and 2007 to today. Rates are not biting. Hence the dominance of FCI" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 20:44:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@prpl8 @rev_cap @TheStalwart Let me clarify: they understand it as a concept but don't know how to model it into their policy framework" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 13:02:20 UTC 21.3K followers, XX engagements
"Waller: Inflation expectations are well anchored but that's because I ignore all the evidence they aren't. Neither of the two mandates meet criteria for a cut but we should anyways because in my imagination neutral is 3%. In any other profession he would've been fired yday" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 12:24:56 UTC 21.3K followers, 9877 engagements
"@AahanPrometheus I see us growing well above benchmark rates. Nowhere near contraction. Capacity is down from 200k/month to 80k now. We don't need many jobs to tighten the labor market" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 14:10:52 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@RobertPBalan1 I agree with all of them except Dollar. It's not really impacted by 10y but by 2y spreads which continue to price rate cuts in spite of CPI rises ahead. We are not a serious market" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 19:43:24 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@AahanPrometheus Yes known issue. But again unemployment rate doesn't get revised and indicates the tightness. It just shows you we do not need many jobs to tighten it. So I just think all labor data needs to be compared to capacity. Example: continuing claims relative to labor force" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-18 14:54:33 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"@briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring Lets use logic. What has actually changed from Q1 to Q2 Not much. 80BN tariffs collected doesnt drop demand by 2%. Uncertainty + FCI gives you the roadmap. You continue to dismiss at your own peril despite all the evidence" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-20 17:53:05 UTC 21.3K followers, 1090 engagements
"@briangobosox @tylermacro10 @dampedspring Yes to first question. Q4 data was also strong due to FCI loosening in August/september. Uncertainty and FCI shock to second as Ive answered 4x by now. Now look to Q3. If it surprises to the upside will you finally admit how FCI drives sequential growth" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-20 18:19:09 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Equities look exhausted but I can't imagine too much downside when the dollar is this weak and bonds bid for no reason" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 15:25:39 UTC 21.3K followers, 16.5K engagements
"@jayskywalker16 Correct. It is a systematic model based trading strategy and I enter only when dislocated. Signals are valid for up to two weeks. It did say to buy in April and once it has returned to fair value that is an exit" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 13:09:37 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements
"Inflation is rising and unemployment is falling. A truly data dependent Fed would be hawkish. They say they are neutral but neutral is not projecting rate cuts at every meeting for X years and talking about it at every speech. This is why the Fed has not tamed inflation" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 13:25:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 19.1K engagements
"Even with all of the noise around crypto of late due to the Genius act and even some big whale transactions my BTC model continues to nail the big movements. It says we are at fair value at the moment" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-22 12:53:14 UTC 21.3K followers, 4117 engagements
"@NickTimiraos Since his prior speech: -unemployment rate fell -JOLTs improved -quits rose layoffs fell -jobless claims fell -inflation breakevens sharply higher -FCI has loosened further. Hes not data dependent. If a second wave happens he should be forced to pay back his salary" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-17 22:43:55 UTC 21.3K followers, 8404 engagements
"For the life of me I still don't understand why healthcare inflation is so disconnected from reality. Healthcare spending rose by XXX% in 2023 and estimated to grow X% per year for the next decade yet PCE inflation has it at 2.5%. Real world inflation measured" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-14 13:12:00 UTC 21.3K followers, 15.3K engagements
"@briangobosox You have to ask repeated questions like its a conversation. I find it pretty high in accuracy actually" @DannyDayan5 on X 2025-07-19 17:27:19 UTC 21.3K followers, XXX engagements