#  @BarnieTaintpipe Barnacle Taintpipe
Barnacle Taintpipe posts on X about fintech, $afrm, $dave, $chym the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1429685275836534795/interactions)
- [--] Week [-----] -74%
- [--] Month [------] +35%
- [--] Months [-------] +50,751%
### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1429685275836534795/posts_active)
- [--] Week [--] -36%
- [--] Month [--] +43%
- [--] Months [---] +3,756%
### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1429685275836534795/followers)
- [--] Week [---] +1.90%
- [--] Month [---] +14%
- [--] Months [---] +1,743%
### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1429685275836534795/influencer_rank)
### Social Influence
**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [countries](/list/countries) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [gaming](/list/gaming) [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) [financial services](/list/financial-services)
**Social topic influence**
[fintech](/topic/fintech), [$afrm](/topic/$afrm) #20, [$dave](/topic/$dave) #13, [$chym](/topic/$chym) #5, [business](/topic/business), [$xyz](/topic/$xyz), [$sezl](/topic/$sezl) #25, [$klar](/topic/$klar) #32, [$mq](/topic/$mq), [ceo](/topic/ceo)
**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@aureliusltd28](/creator/undefined) [@nachunja](/creator/undefined) [@4thpillar](/creator/undefined) [@bobspaysubstack](/creator/undefined) [@alohaoasis](/creator/undefined) [@komodocapital](/creator/undefined) [@andrewm61370616](/creator/undefined) [@krispatel99](/creator/undefined) [@0xmerridew](/creator/undefined) [@wagiecapital](/creator/undefined) [@cariocapital](/creator/undefined) [@paulcerro](/creator/undefined) [@nanselmo92](/creator/undefined) [@oxeinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@alexhjohnson](/creator/undefined) [@kenmegan44](/creator/undefined) [@shawnkwon11](/creator/undefined) [@marqeta](/creator/undefined) [@jbulltard1](/creator/undefined) [@apompliano](/creator/undefined)
**Top assets mentioned**
[Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)](/topic/$afrm) [Dave Inc. (DAVE)](/topic/$dave) [Chime Financial, Inc (CHYM)](/topic/$chym) [Block, Inc. (XYZ)](/topic/$xyz) [Sezzle Inc. Common Stock (SEZL)](/topic/$sezl) [Klarna Group plc (KLAR)](/topic/$klar) [Marqeta, Inc. (MQ)](/topic/$mq) [Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND)](/topic/$bynd) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Fiserv, Inc. (FI)](/topic/$fi) [RAI Finance (SOFI)](/topic/$sofi) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)](/topic/$ionq) [Snap, Inc. (SNAP)](/topic/$snap) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Intuit Inc. (INTU)](/topic/$intu) [Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)](/topic/$upst) [Opendoor Technologies Inc Common Stock (OPEN)](/topic/$open) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT)](/topic/$qubt) [Dash (DASH)](/topic/$dash) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY)](/topic/$pgy) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [asscoin (ASSCOIN)](/topic/$asscoin) [StaFi (FIS)](/topic/$fis) [Global Payments Inc (GPN)](/topic/$gpn) [McDonald's Corp (MCD)](/topic/$mcd)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@joecarlsonshow $DAVE. Payday lending disruptor for short-term cash advances with underwriting and repayment moat. Probably room to go from $270 to $350 by 2025E year end"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1940642828088234342) 2025-07-03T05:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Nanselmo92 @AlohaOasis @OxeInvesting @komodo_capital @AndrewM61370616 @KrisPatel99 The dildo of fintech liquidity provides low-income consumers with the opportunity for both pleasure and pain"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1942802642557604208) 2025-07-09T04:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Nanselmo92 @AlohaOasis @OxeInvesting @komodo_capital @AndrewM61370616 @KrisPatel99 I don't really know how you can take this position when you are so bullish $SOFI and Galileo powers that entire operation by the way"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1942949683380253178) 2025-07-09T14:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Nanselmo92 @AlohaOasis @OxeInvesting @komodo_capital @AndrewM61370616 @KrisPatel99 I didn't say they were moral or sustainable. I prefer to invest in evil high margin companies that will collapse imminently"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1943395352906010829) 2025-07-10T19:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@4thPillar_ @Aureliusltd28 By deep dive I guess you mean you just read it Fintwit always gasses up their own knowledge of things they have surface level understanding of. How much are they getting fined"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1943848828677108094) 2025-07-12T01:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 [--]. Subscription - Similarly a customer needs to be careful when signing up. If they just click the buttons for account creation to use Dave ASAP they may inadvertently subscribe. However these subscriptions are smaller and won't result in a meaningful fine"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1943862594877763628) 2025-07-12T02:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 They've reserved $7M in legal accrual (already hit P&L) and anything in excess of that as determined by DOJ will be paid. This is not going to break the business and maybe will be on the lower end of an 8-figure number. But it is not a go-forward risk"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1943863315765043255) 2025-07-12T02:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 Particularly as the business starts to spit out $40-50M+ in operating income per quarter. My guess is a fine or settlement hits in Q3'25 and the overhang will be removed since the pricing model already changed away from tipping and they've addressed the advance items"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1943863911666549093) 2025-07-12T02:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 I have $510-520M revenue $220-230M Adj. EBITDA (45% margin) $192M Adj. NI (37%) for full year 2025E not accounting for an TBD one-time impact of the DOJ settlement. Put w/e multiple you want on that for a 40-50% topline YoY but I wouldn't bet on $75. @4thPillar_"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1943865116480688507) 2025-07-12T02:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Future 10-bagger Let me drop you the real thesis on $SNAP. Management has literally no idea how their own business works. They alternate beats and misses almost every earnings. This is indicative of a low ability to forecast their own business with any real rigor so they rely on sandbagging then trending out their business in too optimistic of a way that doesnt end up playing out in a [--] month cycle almost perfectly for the last 3-4 years. You want to make 10x on $SNAP Its not from holding it go long next earnings because they fucked up this one. After that one go short. Rinse and repeat"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961312121284698246) 2025-08-29T06:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"How would someone know"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1971288796135293148) 2025-09-25T19:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Weird that you can just have a direct personal relationship with the CEO and pump his shitco fraud stock while being paid by him whether directly and indirectly"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1971289772988694842) 2025-09-25T19:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I dont think this is a good nuanced take. BNPL is a superior value than credit cards for merchants who market on Affirms behalf for free better for the consumer (in all but product UX and financially for 100% non-revolvers) who pay less on average due to defined interest payments and economically better from a risk perspective due to having a transaction-by-transaction underwriting practice that is difficult to replicate. In 10-20 years I suspect a large amount of the credit card revolver market will be taken by BNPL (AFRM or otherwise but I believe AFRM will be the big winner here) credit"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1978121381184172334) 2025-10-14T15:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@AlexH_Johnson @mikulaja AFRM can be much bigger and much more complex than the company we all see today. Very early innings for them (ironically not unlike the journey Capital One went through pioneering subprime CC underwriting). See my reply to Jason would be curious on your takes"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1978122319949124001) 2025-10-14T15:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Do you know the rate of revolving for superprime and prime plus customers per the CFPB (2023 report) Spoilers Its 20% and 40% respectively. Keep in mind I am making a distinction between revolvers out of necessity and just people who revolve for fun. There exists a population of people perfectly able to pay off their balances and simply dont out of negligence. Many of these better quality customers would be on AmEx and they are extremely profitable. My point on 100% non-revolvers is BNPL is a superior experience if you make really any accidental CC revolver payments"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1978124371337097277) 2025-10-14T15:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I hear you. My view on AFRM vs rest of BNPL today is that commoditization has already started to occur in the split pay type BNPLs but not on AFRMs majority (70% of GMV) transaction-by-transaction interest-bearing personal loan underwriting. So I think there are incremental things offering-wise worth $$$ to merchants. On the PayPal and Afterpay type stuff I dont see a huge amount of value to the merchant and agree that will become less or unsustainable if a race to the bottom starts"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1978148078503764354) 2025-10-14T17:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I'd caution you on following Unicus too closely (though I trust their work on CVNA). I have never had a position in CVNA and I would more likely be short than long but as an operator and expert in the space their commentary on low-income and consumer lending in the Steve Eisman podcast was not at all informed and very irresponsible which makes me doubt their credibility across sectors which they are not specialized in"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1979210764092113057) 2025-10-17T15:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Quantum computing is an obvious answer -- IONQ has the most heavy retail leverage of the group; QUBT is the most obvious fraud of the group; RGTI has a CEO with 0% ownership publicly stating the price of the company is too high QC stocks are in a bubble and they will definitely not breakeven for at least [--] years (if at all)"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1979211306679857415) 2025-10-17T15:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I know this is just a surface-level multiples view but this is a very bad take. From a profitability EBITDA to cash flow conversion and customer payback perspective $DAVE is far superior to $CHYM. DAVE also does not ask its investors to believe in a $400M+ per year marketing spend story for [--] month paybacks like CHYM does. The reality is DAVE has passed its first few prove it measures in the public markets while CHYM has done nothing of the sort. CHYM needs to deliver user growth profitability WHILE improving margins (which they have only decreased due to timing of MyPay launch with IPO)."
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1979551216796410205) 2025-10-18T14:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$CHYM will be fine as a company in the long-run but the reality is their strategy is to be the lowest cost low-income neobank. For a $500 draw a Chime user will pay $2 while a Dave user will pay $15. At some point you are simply not pricing efficiently. Yes Chime should take the business over time but people are used to Dave and it is reliable and if you are not a direct depositor at Chime you will get a MUCH higher limit at Dave. Cash App Borrow is simply not run effectively. I wouldnt put them in the same race until Cash App management can prove their heads are no longer firmly lodged past"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1979552400383066571) 2025-10-18T14:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bobspaysubstack @Aem424 Disclaimer: I am long $DAVE and watching $CHYM like a hawk. But my personal view is now is not the time for CHYM. These two are arguably my strongest competitors in my day job"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1979552812796129357) 2025-10-18T14:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"In the very long-term view you are correct. However where you may be missing is in the medium-term. You make it sound like $CHYM launched their $2 advance product by accident or something. They watched Dave Varo Albert Current Cash App Earnin and others do EVERYTHING that they did and they specifically chose to do this. This is because ultimately Chime is a marketing and networks effects company and they are most well-capitalized to do so and at scale. Their strategy is to acquire with the lowest priced product suite for their users. So I think it is a bad bet to think before MyPay hits scale"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1979567495372836944) 2025-10-18T15:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I posted part of that view here just now: I don't think $DAVE fees will come down. I predict that their next step is actually to move up their pricing cap to allow for even more profitability. For reference they are priced at 5% of draw with a $5 floor and a $15 cap (so technically DAVE is only getting paid for the first $300 of advance extended). So I think this $15 cap will move to $20 (so $400 of advance) or higher especially as they test extending higher and higher limits which of course means more risk of loss which they need to get compensated for. $XYZ can't really bring it down for"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1979569402254094814) 2025-10-18T15:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"For those that got burned rotating into $BYND I think you can still make money by rotating back into $IONQ. if you loved it at 1000x sales you'll love it at 997x"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981039978923651227) 2025-10-22T16:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Really depends which private credit lenders you're talking about. I think anyone thinking $APO or anyone in that tier is at risk should be committed to an institution. Demand to make loans outstrips supply to make loans within a certain standard of credit underwriting. but there are a range of outcomes for those who can manage loosening standards for acceptable risk/return versus going gangbusters with no regard to risk. Market commentators act like there is a default guaranteed every time someone ventures slightly outside of their credit box"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981090440918020334) 2025-10-22T20:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SarAEsQMd Bruh"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981131854020563036) 2025-10-22T22:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 Correct on offshore but look at $VAL"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981164555830251925) 2025-10-23T01:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 all of the oil experts I know tell me $VAL good $RIG not as good. i don't read i just jack it to subprime fintech lenders"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981165013676229086) 2025-10-23T01:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"To be fair $META did trade at $80 for practically nonsense capex fears and $GOOG did trade at $150 for search cannibalization fears both of which were complete non-issues. Now its probably a retail consumer and cloud comps fear for $AMZN which seems like it could also be a non-issue. Not defending the guy because I dont know any of his three theses for the respective names but a value buy is a value buy even if theyre the biggest brand names in the world"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981190007239921930) 2025-10-23T02:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@amitisinvesting You can tell this is just pump material because 4/5 names are the public quantum cos that aren't leaders including $QUBT (which is actually a fraud) and no mention of $MSFT $GOOG $IBM (which the U.S. govt would obviously back first) and other private QC leaders"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981196056571551775) 2025-10-23T03:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@DrocDolf This was what I latched onto. So odd for $QBTS (quantum annealing) and $QUBT (actual fraudco) to be included so much so that it must be BS"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981199428141928472) 2025-10-23T03:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SarAEsQMd ima bruh you again tomorrow if IONQ goes down and say nothing if it goes up"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981468410258022562) 2025-10-23T21:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3 [----] Earnings I'm Watching 10/28 $PYPL - Watch for Braintree turnaround BNPL growth (particularly in interest-bearing this matters a lot more than Fintwit thinks) Venmo is an embedded option. Market probably now undervaluing this simply on a brutal [--] years of new CEO trimming the fat and focusing on profitable business; turnaround isn't priced in IMO"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981832405406093622) 2025-10-24T21:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 10/28 $SOFI - I think as usual $SOFI fintwit bulls probably get this right in terms of good results but not really knowing why. Need to watch for official incorporation of losing $CHYM in guidance. The execution in the rest of the business has really covered up what a shitshow Galileo has been and continues to be. If you can't keep the biggest neobank in the game then who is your customer base really End of student loan moratorium can add interesting momentum to the business where it hasn't been available in the last few years. I predict the"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981833489734394011) 2025-10-24T21:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/4 $DAVE - The EWA company that trades like $ASSCOIN. First of its kind as a non-shitty public company. New financial product super misunderstood business model low volume SPAC-level research coverage (ie. no one anyone pays attention to) keeps many players out of researching / touching the name. $DAVE continues its slow grind proving that it is an EBITDA / cash flow machine while growing 50% YoY. Doubters underestimate the size of the demand in this space and can't wrap their head around the business. The most cynical take you can have is"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981835997814866089) 2025-10-24T21:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/5 $MQ - BaaS platform most well known for powering Cash App (so tied to $XYZ earnings as well). Also has super interesting momentum on BNPL cards and attached to great up and coming brand names within fintech such as Ramp $UBER and $DASH programs. Honestly I think the market has literally forgotten about this stock and has been in full wait-and-see mode for [--] years. The last time any analyst has looked at this stock and given half a fuck was back when it was 75% concentrated in Cash App (that is now 47%). They are still working through a"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981838205411360933) 2025-10-24T21:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/5 $SEZL - $AFRM and $KLAR's special cousin. Think of this as a BNPL that plays further down the income spectrum than AFRM and KLAR. Although listening to the CEO on the last earnings call he may be on another spectrum. Essentially they charge $12/mo and $17/mo (from memory could be outdated) to do less than what $AFRM does for the people that don't have access to AFRM because they kick you out with their underwriting. Successfully monetizing where others do not could in some cases be a bull argument but subscription revenues have actually been"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981840466891948150) 2025-10-24T21:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/5 $CHYM - First public neobank with an extremely simple but still misunderstood business model. At its core $CHYM is an extremely simple company. Spend a ton of money on marketing acquire users get them to be direct depositors and keep that relationship to pay off that marketing spend over time. Investors may think its bullshit if I explain it like this -- it can be modeled the same way as a SaaS business given its predictable conversion retention and LTV -- but this is completely true. Converting and keeping a direct depositor is the hardest"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981843099287494722) 2025-10-24T21:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/6 - $AFRM the crown jewel of modern fintech IMO. All eyes are on AFRM. They are expected to deliver across the board on GMV growth RLTC margins B/S efficiency. As with $SEZL and $DAVE the question is loss rates. Can AFRM prove yet again that it has vastly superior underwriting to its peers as it claims to Can it show the market that in a time where subprime credit has shown early signs of deterioration that it either 1) is not happening to AFRM or 2) is rising but not in an alarming way In general I view $AFRM and $DAVE as the best underwriters"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981845448974631415) 2025-10-24T22:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@4thPillar_ @shortbus_ace Call me when you pivot to subprime fintech lending"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981864298365534311) 2025-10-24T23:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Watching Grok slowly update with the $BYND bondholder shares information which was readily available last week (exclusively to people who can read) to show only 10% short as % of float and watching the apes go from wholeheartedly believing everything it told them with old data to condemning it and saying it is lying is wild to watch. The robot does not learn fast enough to give you real-time trading advice get over it. Also stop getting pump and dumped your money is going to the hedge funds that you claim to be "owning" https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1981867230888415682"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981867230888415682) 2025-10-24T23:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@FabAIQuantum the quantum community's bar for cleverness is beating YAHOO FINANCE and the WALL STREET JOURNAL bruh put the fries in the bag"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1981871529001697683) 2025-10-24T23:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/6 - $XYZ -- A confusing story where the market is firmly in wait-and-see mode both because the business itself requires turnaround and a re-ignition of what was great momentum and because Dorsey a CEO that is viewed as unstable shareholder-unfriendly and prone to wandering off on Bitcoin adventures. Square had self-admittedly dropped the ball. It was obvious in their numbers and $TOST's success over a year ago and subject to a very candid discussion on Block's earnings call earlier this year. Dorsey and the Square CPO promised investors that a"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982167634134057044) 2025-10-25T19:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@nachunja @blocks @BlockIR @emcross23 If there's anything $XYZ is very good at it is having a cool and visionary Investor Day🙂"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1982172909368988115) 2025-10-25T19:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/18 - $KLAR -- Why are you reporting two weeks later than all other fintechs The BNPL that people think is neck-and-neck with $AFRM but it really is not. Here's my issue with Klarna: They are very very Swedish. PLASTERED all over their S-1 are messages about how banks are evil interest payments are criminal being focused on a profitable business is awful etc. Yet the key to its growth and beating competition is interest-bearing BNPL. On its face this is not a recipe for success in the public markets. You may think that this is just rhetoric and"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982186195925811482) 2025-10-25T20:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fundamentally: Did all $BYND holders forget about Impossible Foods This is not a market they are in completely uncontested. And Impossible is bigger (and tastes better from the one time I tried both). Why is this suddenly a movement from people who have never tried one of these in their lives I know the answer is you people just saw a public stock that had a high short interest and created a narrative around it. Technically: Almost nothing in your post is accurate. Why are you doing this Why are you pretending you are a fundamental bull and tagging RoaringKitty and GME I know the Trump admin"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1982205437731549432) 2025-10-25T21:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@0xMerridew Scott Bessent's gayness may be rubbing off on him After the midterms they will rub one off together"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1982509475736244280) 2025-10-26T18:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@UnicusResearch @andrewrsorkin This is extremely bullish $AFRM but I guess lets ignore that Do you guys know that BNPL is just another mechanism similar to a credit card What do you people even think a credit card is"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1982882659186684015) 2025-10-27T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@UnicusResearch $AFRM will be fine You on the other hand have zero idea what you are talking about when it comes to BNPL anything. Stay in your lane and talk about autos"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983011363241840755) 2025-10-28T03:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$SOFI IS DOWN 2% AT TIME OF POST🔴 🟢GREAT QUARTER FROM SOFI OVERALL 🟢GROWTH IN PERSONAL BANKING AND LOAN PLATFORM IS PRETTY GOOD 🔴I KEEP SAYING THIS $SOFI BULLS DON'T SEEM TO LISTEN. TECH PLATFORM IS BAD BAD BAD (but small-ish relative to the rest of their business so it's fine. I'm not saying it's a sell on the stock I am saying it is not helpful to the bull thesis like people claim) 🟢DELINQUENCIES ARE DOING GREAT BUT EVERYONE EXPECTED THIS GIVEN OTHER LENDING REPORTS (BIG BANKS AND LENDINGCLUB) But guys for real when you guys run up a stock 10-15% a few days before earnings you are"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983170854004396169) 2025-10-28T13:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"GOODBYE $FI FISERV DEAD ON Q325 EARNINGS AND A FULL RESET OF COMPANY PRIORITIES AND STRATEGY AND I ASSUME DELEVERAGING I BET THEY WISH THEY COULD DO LEVERED BUYBACKS NOW BUT NOW THEY ARE TOO LEVERED AND DID SHARE BUYBACKS AT $493747 PER SHARE GOOD MANAGEMENT VERY VISIONARY MUCH FINANCIAL ENGINEERING SUCH WOW This is a $PYPL moment where the new CEO arrived looked around and said what in the actual fuck are you guys doing Im not putting my name on this Even with the share price this much lower I wont be touching this until the CEO broadcasts any semblance of confidence and my guess is it wont"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983529879753687462) 2025-10-29T13:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@bobspaysubstack Let us all join hands and feel confident in our social security program together"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983531522381799748) 2025-10-29T13:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$SNAP This earnings will be a beat They do beat miss beat miss beat on earnings in an alternating fashion Old investors hate this strategy Bet on the management team being so bad that their guidance is just irrelevant DISCLAIMER: This is unfortunately only partially a joke"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983534361698828380) 2025-10-29T14:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@WagieCapital You are using too much of your brain for $SNAP I assure you it its not necessary"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983538721342304345) 2025-10-29T14:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I mean anyone thats thought about integrating a single acquisition of a company would probably have a seizure looking at what $FI has done. I certainly dont truly understand their business even after looking at it for a while due to the M&A complexity. Im sure its a mess internally and headaches all around"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983741790533648476) 2025-10-30T03:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is probably a hot take today but honestly all of you hedge fund / PE / fintwit influencers that think you know how to run $META better than Mark Zuckerberg are actually retarded Like seriously are we doing this again How many times do you need to be wrong before you just decide to stop giving your wrong opinion"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983774839392629197) 2025-10-30T05:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I work in fintech with reasonable operational complexity and I can honestly say not once have I read though a $FI $FIS $GPN report or filing and came out thinking yeah I know exactly what these guys do in each segment or yep this is the purpose of that acquisition so you are spot on"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983908044086886781) 2025-10-30T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yep I recently started a L/S with some partners as kind of the de facto fintech guy and they asked me about my opinion on $FI and all I really could say was heh idk man I dont get it A company you need a merger model to understand every year is just something no one really wants to buy. Different industry but $CWAN has like [--] simultaneous acquisitions and is just getting killed even though its probably a great pro forma company. Its much too much to ask the market to digest"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983909624656097502) 2025-10-30T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@4thPillar_ Dan Perlin is a homie"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983927743411519835) 2025-10-30T16:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DarioCpx @RealJimChanos This post just demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of basic financial statements. I am not a $CVNA bull and would short it before I would long it but this is just totally wrong Expecting a deletion in like [--] days"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983946052890923013) 2025-10-30T17:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@aleabitoreddit Look at $MQ $DAVE if you want to expand scope of sector. Newer type of fintech cos and products"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983946561835950153) 2025-10-30T17:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I dont think that is the right take for $MQ. Its the [----] view of them from when they were 70%+ concentrated in Cash App (nothing to do with Square even at the time). Now it is around 45% with business banking (Ramp) BNPL (like $AFRM $KLAR) and other partnerships like $UBER $DASH contributing to volumes. Cash position and FCF still good buybacks going strong at a low valuation before a sustained turnaround recognized by the market Take another look IMO. Short writeups on both names as well as other fintech on my profile https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1983955070564901137"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983955070564901137) 2025-10-30T17:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Also Im not sure what you mean exactly by they can announce their own cards in relation to $XYZ but I guarantee at their scale and dependence on a processor like $MQ that they will not be doing that. It is simply not their focus and they dont have the expertise for that. It took $CHYM [--] years of focused efforts to migrate off of Galileo (acquired by $SOFI) in order to run and launch card products independently. Block will not do this https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1983956179312382063 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1983956179312382063"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983956179312382063) 2025-10-30T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CarioCapital @Kenmegan44 This literally just means they use $GOOG for advertising. My company uses Google PMax too Most companies use Google for advertising"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983961588110635153) 2025-10-30T18:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@CarioCapital @Kenmegan44 So its irrelevant in the context of $SOFI then"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1983965681013145648) 2025-10-30T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is not correct with respect to how market making works and weird that you just decided to make this up Market makers hedge the upside or downside movement of the underlying shares but they also need the shares in the first place for MM hedging strategies to make sense. Your assumption that JPM is taking a directional bet in either direction is incorrect"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1984298062312063225) 2025-10-31T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes I am saying your critique of what Paul said is wrong. The share inventories required for institutional lending for short selling arent always fully covered by fully paid securities lending programs run by retail brokers to lend to institutions like youre saying. Youre assuming the existence of this program that you know about is enough to solve the actual demand which is not true. Many market makers need to shore up inventory of highly demanded stocks for shorting for which you see is typically a lot of retail-heavy names such as $HIMS as retail is more price-insensitive causing"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1984315098375270552) 2025-10-31T17:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@4thPillar_ @shortbus_ace Yeah Pikachus tail is actually yellow with some brown connecting to the body"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1984318222171324554) 2025-10-31T17:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This would be a mistake for the $PYPL team Not only for themselves in general but also right now the image of a payments company being too trigger happy with M&A is very bad People forget but $INTU was also killed last quarter over being too acquisitive. The fintech space seems tired of acquisitions that are too aspirational and wont believe anything until they see results"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1984334894257094804) 2025-10-31T19:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Kross_Roads @KrisPatel99 Mailchimp can hardly be described as a rough patch in hindsight. It is currently the main overhang on $INTU stock"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1984335170078728424) 2025-10-31T19:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think we are not on opposing sides here. But my point is considering he saw the fallout of Mailchimp and in an environment where $FI and $INTU (among others such as $GPN and $FOUR) are being punished by the market for M&A the solution is not doing large acquisitions for growth. As an actual operator having cash is not a reason to do an acquisition. Needing growth is also not a reason to do an acquisition. So unless there is a truly compelling opportunity that $PYPL can pay attention to integrating while also continuing to turn around PayPal Venmo (and integrating this which they failed at"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1984366914651767120) 2025-10-31T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Pablo01618 As a bull for both $DAVE and $PGY and an operator in the subprime fintech industry just FYI DAVE's results pretty much have nothing to do with PGY so I'd recommend decoupling those being correlated in your head"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1985706894841802979) 2025-11-04T13:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Pablo01618 Yep I am just saying the datasets and credit products for both companies are completely different so even if the $DAVE AI model works that doesn't mean the $PGY or $UPST AI models will"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1985710755715432717) 2025-11-04T14:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$DAVE Q3'25 Results REVENUES UP 63% 🟢 GROSS PROFIT UP 62% 🟢 GAAP NET INCOME UP 19658% (FOR THOSE THAT INSISTED THIS METRIC MATTERED LAST QUARTER - IT DIDN'T) 🟢🟢🟢 ADJ EBITDA UP 137% 🟢 ADJ NET INCOME UP 193% 🟢 ADJ EPS UP 181% 🟢 CAC FOR NEW ACCOUNTS AND TRANSACTING MEMBERS DOWN 🟢 CONVERSION UP 🟢 DELINQUENCIES LOWER 🟢 GUIDANCE RAISED (MORE THAN USUAL) 🟢 Outstanding quarter from $DAVE. Will share more as I work through the results It is good to see the exceptional performance of the business of course. What I would highlight is a continued effort to explain their story around"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985715876159455699) 2025-11-04T14:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$APO +7% post-earnings I thought private credit was dying. It seems no one remembers our 1-day long regional banking crisis Shadow banking is evil All private credit lenders will go bankrupt As it turns out high-quality players and the best underwriters / those with the best leverage will continue to win while lower-quality could struggle a bit. $APO is a great example of a winner in a more credit-stressed environment. $ARES a little down the spectrum but still a winner. $OWL a lot more down the spectrum and maybe not a winner. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985739080915685799"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1985739080915685799) 2025-11-04T16:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jssgf @capital_mindset I am very heavily exposed in my personal portfolio at lower cost basis so not adding in PA. Fund added today after $DAVE fell from +12% to -4%. Stock got cheaper after this earnings which I view as a significant de-risk"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1985744715191288283) 2025-11-04T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sounds like $UPST: [--]. Blamed their AI model for underperformance (the AI model is the entire business model) [--]. Couldn't get loans off their balance sheet fast enough for the market to feel comfortable [--]. Sees a healthy consumer generally Whether $UPST investors like it or not the ultra-high multiple dooms it when execution isn't perfect and all news isn't good. With the $LC and $SOFI commentary it seems that we are seeing the first high-profile player that is potentially on the other side of the capital providers pulling back from lower-quality originators so investors are reacting to this"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1985924630201143700) 2025-11-05T04:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ShawnKwon11 I know you're the idiot leader of the gambling 10x levered retail Koreans and not smart enough to read but these are just $AMZN warrant exercises on $IONQ which they got practically for free"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985954986660864422) 2025-11-05T06:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""EARNINGS GROWTH IS RUNNING AT 10% YOY BULLISH" PROCEEDS TO TAG $IONQ $OKLO AT 1000X SALES Rate cuts have arrived deregulation is here earnings growth is running at 10%+ YoY and the AI Revolution is accelerating. Ignore the noise. $IONQ $OKLO Rate cuts have arrived deregulation is here earnings growth is running at 10%+ YoY and the AI Revolution is accelerating. Ignore the noise. $IONQ $OKLO"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1985955471870542211) 2025-11-05T06:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@fallacyalarm You people know you can invest in capex to make more money in the near to medium-term and then just. stop right This is not the first time this has happened $AMZN $META $GOOG $MSFT $TSM"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1985956932549550434) 2025-11-05T06:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ShawnKwon11 $MS is doing this so they can run share offerings for $IONQ farther past that price. Otherwise they would not be able to sell an IONQ offering at $70 as effectively to investors if their PT was too far off. This is a signal for further dilution"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1985971510750953533) 2025-11-05T07:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Most smokers nicotine pouch users and lottery players are lower income so yeah those specific people cant afford to eat partially because they choose to do that You can choose to support that behavior and thats not necessarily a problem in and of itself I just prefer my money to not be used that way. I can see the benefit in the perfect scenario but the execution is so complex that it is a questionable effort and use of funds"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986132217701994621) 2025-11-05T18:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Seems fintech stocks are waking up for $CHYM $MQ $SEZL earnings AH $CHYM price action is very bullish. Makes sense because they are super cheap on a valuation basis. I would guess over 50% upside over a year if they just hit sell-side estimates and explain their story better $MQ also dirt cheap turnaround story. Dependent on $XYZ $AFRM $KLAR performance and for the first time in years I don't think that's a bad thing $SEZL is a hilarious stock chart. I don't have an opinion other than it is strictly a worse version of $AFRM. Short interest is massive so a good quarter can pop this thing."
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986156296194736299) 2025-11-05T19:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Quick hits more to come later: $CHYM - Execution was in line announced $200M buyback program which is perfect for their giant cash pile and too-low valuation. I suspect now that the stock has found its first floor post-IPO this will trade at a more normal level $MQ - Great quarter beats growth acceleration guidance raised FCF strength as expected excellent progress on buyback program given it continued to be severely depressed after the Q2'25 earnings $SEZL - Haven't looked but it went from 20% AH to flat so not sure what's going on here. Will dig in but after the other two names which are my"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986186277822075063) 2025-11-05T21:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"VICTORY LAP HERE DON'T OVERTHINK THIS STOCK $SNAP IS RUN BY IDIOT MONKEYS I KNEW THIS WOULD BE A BEAT MY ANALYSIS IS PERFECT SEE YOU NEXT QUARTER THEY WILL MISS @WagieCapital @WagieCapital $SNAP This earnings will be a beat They do beat miss beat miss beat on earnings in an alternating fashion Old investors hate this strategy Bet on the management team being so bad that their guidance is just irrelevant DISCLAIMER: This is unfortunately only partially @WagieCapital $SNAP This earnings will be a beat They do beat miss beat miss beat on earnings in an alternating fashion Old investors hate this"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986187281787428926) 2025-11-05T21:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The $MQ management team may as well be busting straight into my ears on this earnings call"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986189270839677223) 2025-11-05T21:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit did you ever look / buy This Q3'25 call for $MQ is good"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986189573798482215) 2025-11-05T21:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think $DASH $UBER increasing optionality for those willing to pay for different restaurants has partially contributed to reduction in traffic to the chains particularly the expensive ones without meaningful rewards programs. $MCD and $DPZ being classic examples on the other side of the spectrum of being cheap and having great loyalty deals that seem to have been successful in keeping customers retained"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986195000443666690) 2025-11-05T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The $CHYM CEO is boring as fuck maybe that's why his stock is undervalued from a multiples perspective"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986195660844990583) 2025-11-05T22:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The $CHYM CFO is boring as fuck maybe that's why his stock is undervalued from a multiples perspective The $CHYM CEO is boring as fuck maybe that's why his stock is undervalued from a multiples perspective The $CHYM CEO is boring as fuck maybe that's why his stock is undervalued from a multiples perspective"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986196947452240011) 2025-11-05T22:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@nachunja I'm biased but definitely agree probably worth a lot more than +7% AH I think chalk it up to there being a billion other companies to listen to at the exact same time"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986201311444885927) 2025-11-05T22:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OnodaCapital The other ones are indeed clowny but $RELY stands out from this list to me as an interesting choice. I don't own any but my understanding is it hasn't really been a crazy clown stock and is kind of just a smaller $WISE with a less aggressive multiple"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986204136031801635) 2025-11-05T22:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"There is a lot of nuance in this. $MCD and $CMG see lower traffic = "the people are struggling they are not buying our food." But $CHYM and $DAVE both said on their Q3'25 earnings calls that low-income spending incomes employment and merchant mix has not meaningfully changed so something else is happening that's more complex and probably in-between those two clickbait-worthy headlines"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986207451637534943) 2025-11-05T23:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Lets_Make_It_2 @Futurenvesting @Kenmegan44 This is not happening. $CHYM has spent [--] years on this migration to make sure it works"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986229925817323716) 2025-11-06T00:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think you are actually wrong about $SEZL. They fell from a 15x sales multiple to 7x in an industry where players trade at 3-6x so they were still priced at a premium as a company that grows at 60% YoY maybe deserves. But the things that Sezzle could have missed on would have sent it down another 10% namely delinquencies rising in an environment where everyone is pulling back from low-quality lenders / subprime / scared of credit. In that case you certainly would not be left holding a generational buy. Youd be holding another fintech trading at 5x sales which is pretty much normal. I am not"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986240907817988453) 2025-11-06T01:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@RentYourStocks Also $SEZL is not in the same space as $FI unless you just broadly meant fintech which is true but not very meaningful"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986241426850783639) 2025-11-06T01:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"okay this premarket price action for $MQ makes a lot more sense to me goes to show no one prioritizes listening to $MQ after hours vs. $CHYM $SEZL $HOOD fingers crossed that $5.50 holds but regardless this is bullish. my scratchpad price target for $MQ is $9 conservatively based on actuals. can go much much much higher with continued execution and growth from $XYZ and $AFRM $KLAR"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986430703706267856) 2025-11-06T13:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$CHYM price action being practically flat. yeah this unfortunately makes sense Management said nothing on the call to be excited about. Could barely explain a part of their business ("OITs") after spending 30% of the call talking about it. This is also like 5% of their revenue probably. Waste of time $200M buyback program is a GREAT move. Big cash pile. Low multiple. HOWEVER launching this after a $900M SBC quarter in Q2'25 makes it feel like a consolation prize rather than a move responsible for shareholders I see a 50%+ upside on $CHYM from $19 minimum and much higher long-term. Management"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986432113676050539) 2025-11-06T13:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AFRM earnings day 👀 This is an extremely exciting name and widely misunderstood. By far my highest confidence consumer fintech pick on a 5-10 year basis As I get more active on X I plan on releasing full explainers on $AFRM $CHYM $DAVE $MQ to educate people on these businesses. I can honestly say I don't think even 10% of the market actually understands these companies and that is causing some of the product and valuation misconceptions I am seeing every day"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986433854886809834) 2025-11-06T14:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Called the price action on $SEZL. Reference the last paragraph @RentYourStocks @RentYourStocks I think you are actually wrong about $SEZL. They fell from a 15x sales multiple to 7x in an industry where players trade at 3-6x so they were still priced at a premium as a company that grows at 60% YoY maybe deserves. But the things that Sezzle could have missed on would have @RentYourStocks I think you are actually wrong about $SEZL. They fell from a 15x sales multiple to 7x in an industry where players trade at 3-6x so they were still priced at a premium as a company that grows at 60% YoY maybe"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986450421372657815) 2025-11-06T15:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Happy to take this one. I think I have the best take even over sell-side for this Q. $CHYM performed almost exactly as expected. Guidance raise could be rounded down to +0%. Management spent 30-40% of the time on call making excuses for why Purchase Volume per Active went down and explaining what OITs were. Regardless of how correct you may be this just sounds like an excuse to an investor. If they wanted to explain something with that much nuance that it requires that much time it should just be in the presentation. There was absolutely nothing exciting on the call. Calling out highest"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986452942312935649) 2025-11-06T15:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think this price action has proven that $SEZL's massive moves afterhours were just short positions covering after not seeing them dramatically fail on losses but remains nothing exciting performance-wise past their initially impressive 60% YoY guide. Their 15x price to sales valuation was just a momentum trader fluke and this is probably roughly where they belong even if the chart screams "this must go up at some point" STILL haven't had time to look in more detail at results but will get there"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986455206414921999) 2025-11-06T15:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KevinLMak @FastTradeKing @__paleologo Is Notion your preferred tool for research writing I am having troubles with transposing research across Slack X Discord and Google Sheets due to formatting challenges across platforms"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986455586188222506) 2025-11-06T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AFRM down 5% pre-earnings is an insane risk/reward especially after selling all the way down from the Q2'25 earnings pop"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986458521823813758) 2025-11-06T15:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I think $SEZL is losing to $AFRM and $KLAR. I disagree that it is difficult to see who is coming out on top within BNPL. I also don't think Sezzle's valuation is low. Sezzle has the best monetization model -- as in how do you eke the most dollars out of your users. However they don't have a comparable product experience (late fees lots of costs). The reason they are able to do this is because they play below the Affirm underwriting box so they capture customers that Affirm turns away. The downside to this is the increased risk when it comes to loss rates. When it comes to the industry as a"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986470124690239591) 2025-11-06T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes $SEZL has saved on expenses by not pursuing direct integration with merchants as heavily as $AFRM and $KLAR and opting for their On-Demand model. They stopped reporting "Active Merchants" in Q4 [----] and switched to "Unique Merchants Shopped at by Consumers". Long-term this is a disadvantage because they have a more commoditized / lower moat product. Generally Sezzle is opting for monetizing their customers as much as possible now through subscriptions ($AFRM provides everything for free) and late fees ($AFRM does not charge these) and not doing the investment-heavy strategy of having a"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986489042997772508) 2025-11-06T17:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes long-term (5-10+ years) I expect a massive migration from traditional unsecured credit card users who revolve or have ever revolved (paying interest on CC balances destroys the perceived cashback value that attracts users initially to CCs) into BNPL loans and BNPL cards that do not have fees. Consequently I expect this to reduce credit card reward perks significantly further closing the gap between BNPL perceived value props vs. credit cards. After that I expect BNPL "perks" to come into focus more though it is difficult to imagine what structure that will take until the product matures"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986490757323366400) 2025-11-06T17:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I can respect this take. I think this ignores that $AFRM is just now inflecting on GAAP profitability at a very significantly larger scale in a dominant position in the best market on the planet. I think it also ignores future monetization opportunities such as subscription at a large scale. I do not believe $SEZL can scale their business model significantly without taking on excess risk (they already have lower quality users) or encroaching into an area where they will ultimately need to execute on that merchant investment that they gave up on long ago. But cant argue with profits ="
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986494547074191535) 2025-11-06T18:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think the low-income fears in EWA and BNPL are overblown -- not everyone will blow up like the market seems to be thinking every two weeks -- but there will be winners and losers. I'd be lying if I didn't say my thesis is that $AFRM will see the lowest losses and there is potential for being wrong there but that's what I believe Same for $DAVE which I view as the winner in EWA. I think there is more control over underwriting with these newer shorter duration products than longer duration legacy lenders have historically had"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986530314920050835) 2025-11-06T20:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I know the market is blood red and that's possibly keeping $MQ down and it's great that it's been up +9% while most fintechs are down 5% but it probably deserves to be up 20% from this performance which smashed guidance and really interesting call signaling confidence and opportunities for the future. Holiday season in Q4 with Cash App $XYZ and BNPL card clients $AFRM $KLAR ramped acceleration in $DASH $UBER $CART on-demand delivery volumes Klarna's flex card expanding from [--] European countries to [--] (yes smaller countries and worse economics but still) could drive outperformance. They've"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986544794105966880) 2025-11-06T21:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I do not think $MQ will be acquired but their relationship with $XYZ does limit the universe given many of the potential acquirers in banking technology are also direct competitors of Square. Galileo's acquisition by $SOFI was a clear signal of why a company with a meaningful conflict of interest should not acquire a BaaS platform. You could argue that $MQ is performing well is a direct consequence of meaningful financial partners not wanting to deal with SoFi's banking platform. For example $AXP would never work with $SOFI. $AFRM and $KLAR also were never likely to"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986548263655239988) 2025-11-06T21:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Did $XYZ get Dorsey'ed again"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986548311327752661) 2025-11-06T21:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AFRM doing a thing and +10% AH before the call. This makes it. flat on the day so far Results seem good. Let's see what commentary Max Levchin has to say. Usually a relatively entertaining earnings call"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986550378670797141) 2025-11-06T21:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Confirmation that $AFRM is another one of the consumer lender fintechs that capital providers are adding to and not pulling back from. Winners so far: $AFRM $LC $SOFI Losers so far: $CVNA $UPST What's interesting is the perception of $AFRM being a low-quality BNPL lender that will go through a credit crisis at any moment but the reality is their underwriting is better than most think and can originate for a lower "quality" customer in a way that performs consistently and capital partners want more of not less. The capital partners' continued appetite even in this environment where we are"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986556354706727144) 2025-11-06T22:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"BREAKING FROM $AFRM: No impact on $AFRM delinquencies from government shutdown only a demand slowdown"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986557389596655919) 2025-11-06T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Hearing really great discipline on the earnings call on the slow rollout on Affirm Card by $AFRM. Not spending any marketing dollars on it only to existing users deliberately to higher income and slowly moving lower. And even with this discipline still +500k Card users in the quarter. "Want it to be the preferred way of interacting with our product" -- If this actually happens successfully the standard unsecured credit card business will have A LOT of challenges in the future"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986559152991175027) 2025-11-06T22:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@bobspaysubstack @Square Market for $XYZ is probably thinking "If Square is struggling now then what's going to happen when Clover $FI aggressively reduces pricing like the Fiserv CEO said he would prioritize""
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986560316428202335) 2025-11-06T22:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AFRM: "0% Days (THE BIG NOTHING -- weird branding but okay) was a massive success in proving to merchants that we can drive consumers not only at the bottom of the funnel but also the top""
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986561266584887530) 2025-11-06T22:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Casual visit from the ex-CEO of $MQ Thanks for visiting my humble [---] follower profile. Trying to provide thoughtful commentary on modern fintech because there is very little 😂 Appreciate the shoutout and insight into some of the strategy of the company @Simonkhalaf Looking forward to what $MQ can continue to do. Thoughtful analysis (won't comment on stock price) but more on strategy. @marqeta head first dive into flexible credentials was not a transactional idea. It is strategic long term vision to support agentic commerce. Flex makes a card a wallet (Debit Debit+ Debit+BNPL Thoughtful"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986562492517011873) 2025-11-06T22:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$AFRM CEO: "WILL ANNOUNCE SOME FUN THINGS AT SOME POINT SOON" Very insightful thank you Mr. CEO"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986563265464574117) 2025-11-06T22:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bobspaysubstack @nachunja Fiserv $FI has ruined us"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986564374882832879) 2025-11-06T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Afterpay is so behind and it's such a shame how badly $XYZ fumbled the potential of the Square + Cash App + Afterpay ecosystem Not like it's not going to eventually all be integrated but it feels like each of the verticals is getting more and more competitive and there's not a ton of time left to make this cohesive"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986581818397602232) 2025-11-06T23:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$XYZ seems like it did okay but the market is immediately selling off anything that doesn't smash earnings expectations at the moment. Possibly a buying opportunity but $FI's commentary on Clover is legitimately scary for Square which has barely started getting its footing. For those unaware part of the reason (but not all) that Fiserv fell 50% after earnings is the new CEO announced Clover would be cutting its prices deeply to be more competitive and win share in the space reducing revenue growth expectations significantly. $TOST has obviously been kicking ass in the space for a while which"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986600904359829807) 2025-11-07T01:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@jbulltard1 I like Lina Khan. Without her I wouldnt have made money shorting $IRBT"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986641060777402480) 2025-11-07T03:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Over / under on $AFRM being green vs. red EOD Big scary subprime underwriter ooooh market hates that right now ooooh spooky 👻"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986804581062341016) 2025-11-07T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"You guys can clown Jack Dorsey's $70M $XYZ party all you want but I wish I was invited :("
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986889159122821387) 2025-11-07T20:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Guys $CHYM is 13% better of a company than it was yesterday"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986889299896188962) 2025-11-07T20:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MQ shareholders (me) in shambles (crying in the office) -6% while every other fintech bounces after an incredible quarter There is only one solution to cope Fentanyl"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986889680239862102) 2025-11-07T20:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Congrats $AFRM shareholders for surviving the 2-day subprime apocalypse after the 1-day regional banking crisis We really stuck together and persevered If you hold $KLAR $SEZL you can't sit with us"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986890023308869690) 2025-11-07T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Now that the K-shaped economy has been fixed in the last hours and we no longer fear the shutdown we can buy $BYND meat products again and get fleeced by share dilution to bail out this great American company"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986890493830025315) 2025-11-07T20:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Attention $BYND idiots Investigating meat companies for manipulating prices TOO HIGH would LOWER meat prices making them EVEN CHEAPER than your succulent plant flesh this is NOT BULLISH your squishy vegetable patties BREAKING🚨 TRUMP ORDERS DOJ PROBE INTO MEAT INDUSTRY; Regulatory Scrutiny Could Favor Plant-Based Producers Like Beyond Meat $BYND BULLISH FOR PLANT-BASED MEAT COMPANIES https://t.co/xc6PFNLllE BREAKING🚨 TRUMP ORDERS DOJ PROBE INTO MEAT INDUSTRY; Regulatory Scrutiny Could Favor Plant-Based Producers Like Beyond Meat $BYND BULLISH FOR PLANT-BASED MEAT COMPANIES"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986902065839230981) 2025-11-07T21:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@cleanjordanz He's not made up because the Korean retail degenerates are very real and you can see their message boards But yes pour one out $BYND"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986925227000144127) 2025-11-07T22:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Hello $OPEN people What in the world is high-volume housing acquisition Do you know what houses are"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1986932414677946522) 2025-11-07T23:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@APompliano Bro $OPEN flips homes for profit (allegedly) they dont feed orphans and shit rainbows. Stop talking like this its weird"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986934636660892154) 2025-11-07T23:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I mean its less about the hypothetical (I dont care about the quote really) and about continuing to prove that the company does not really prioritize being a good steward of capital. This is extremely important in a competitive space and $XYZ is competing on [--] fronts that are super innovation-heavy today. Im generally optimistic for $XYZ too and am contemplating entering a position always but its just hard to put your trust into this crap that randomly happens every couple quarters and 20% of calls being dedicated to Bitcoin which has not generated anything useful for the shareholder in"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987207619694768198) 2025-11-08T17:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fair enough take. Yeah the irony is underinvesting and taking shortcuts to appear more profitable in the near-term is that you may find you are forced to do that investment anyways which $XYZ acknowledged in a sobering earnings call in Q1'25. I also make the case that $SEZL is doing this in the BNPL space in competition with $AFRM and $KLAR (the Sezzle bulls don't like hearing this). Once you decide to invest your margins compress (one-time or not I actually do not agree fully with adjusting out the "one-time" expenses) and everyone hates you anyways and morale drops. Morale is also a fickle"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987220959430938631) 2025-11-08T18:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Dont forget $CHYM $DAVE saying the low-income consumer has stable spend income merchant mix not losing their jobs much more than they already were I am going to release articles on these names and low-income fintech in general to help people understand better I am seeing a lot of investors (middle-to-high income) talk about low-income like they know anything but they dont"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987234039045234909) 2025-11-08T19:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@siyul The @jbulltard1 era of smaller-burrito $CMG could work If they add nachos with their extremely nacho-suited kitchen and assembly line I'm all in on margin"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987733568844423378) 2025-11-10T04:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@capybaraReborn I hope you at least kind of feel bad for all the people that rode this down from $4. You were pushing false info for quite a while on $BYND"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987734593991291194) 2025-11-10T04:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@buccocapital Good take. $CHYM $DAVE commentary was similar. Lower income consumer isnt spending less theyre just spending somewhere else"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987794051308142797) 2025-11-10T08:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@downstrum @torovictorioso Affirm $AFRM is just inflecting on GAAP profitability as of recent quarters so will need to wait for normalization before using it as a comparable metric"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987886022076883428) 2025-11-10T14:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Looks like $PGY is out of the $UPST doghouse now that theyve had their earnings Long-term Im not convinced which will be a winner but I have been invested in small allocation in $PGY since $12 on a multiple re-rating thesis for over a year. Ive been trimming pretty much every time it grows to exceed 3% but honestly its done that a few times already lol"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987887072451928165) 2025-11-10T14:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KevinLMaks $PGY has been pretty good. They had a good earnings and showed the market that not every comparable player executes in the same way even if they want to believe the sky is falling in private credit (it isnt). $PGY Quarter was great basically every financial metric is moving in the right direction. FLRPC is now at 5% which is great to see. Costs/expenses are under control margins expanding. Extra disclosure regarding their write downs so investors can get a better feel for how that $PGY Quarter was great basically every financial metric is moving in the right direction. FLRPC is"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987888336145367391) 2025-11-10T14:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Indeed. I am a skeptic since I also work at a fintech that needs to do new underwriting and understand how hard that is. There is a fine line in being forthcoming about exactly what the model is doing right and wrong and just scaring investors because the entire company is the model"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987889679346086142) 2025-11-10T14:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Analytica_X @WrightWhit44154 @StockSavvyShay Completely wrong take. This is universes away from anything that $UPST and $AFRM do. And as someone who bought and sold alternative managers in a past life Im not convinced retail needs broad access to alternative investment strategies"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987890530663977101) 2025-11-10T14:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@varietypunch359 @capybaraReborn Yes and he claimed that the company 5xing the shares outstanding wouldn't impact the thesis and it did. It caused the entire drop"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987899963389497357) 2025-11-10T15:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jevgenijs This is an opportunity for $MQ and to a lesser extent Galileo $SOFI. Companies do not migrate banking cores often and the potential disruption caused by this could be a catalyst for experimentation for legacy banks to move from Fiserv $FI to a more modern core"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987901608630378881) 2025-11-10T15:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CarioCapital Is it bullish actually for $FOUR Do you just mean fintech in general lol"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987901901568962915) 2025-11-10T15:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm optimistic that the market can melt up while the air is let out from the degen retail stuff. Price action today post-shutdown seems positive with actual companies going up and retail momo trash going down $IONQ $BYND with the Mike Alfred pump stocks $OPEN $ASST seeming to be the new flavor of the month. I still maintain that Mag [--] looks cheap on an earnings basis relative to their demonstrated growth and I know how much people hate the concentration of the S&P [---]. I'd bet it's going to get more concentrated but staying bearish just because of that would be a mistake"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987945450142400853) 2025-11-10T18:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@0xMerridew You seem to only be able to do sports and large macro events (Fed JPow) in size on Kalshi"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987945872978514184) 2025-11-10T18:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Dang $SOFI is +8% of a better company than it was on Friday Still thinking about going long"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987989656638566879) 2025-11-10T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RGTI is down after earnings. I guess results must have come as a surprise to shareholders. As it turns out when the company doesn't make money and the CEO publicly says he doesn't think the company will make money maybe -- wait for it. MAYBE THAT COMPANY WON'T MAKE MONEY"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1987992031432478832) 2025-11-10T21:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Being long $BYND is a mental illness at this point Earnings was horrible btw All exactly as expected. Tomorrow well likely see another 20% panic flush - and then a full reversal with a skyrocketing move after the earnings call. Watch it. 🚀 $BYND https://t.co/FUMIf6DKOn All exactly as expected. Tomorrow well likely see another 20% panic flush - and then a full reversal with a skyrocketing move after the earnings call. Watch it. 🚀 $BYND https://t.co/FUMIf6DKOn"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988040769064824854) 2025-11-11T00:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bennpeifert Lina Khan was trained from a young age to deprive America of the Roomba. Some people (Democrats) are playing it off and pretending everythings fine but we will not be silenced This goes MUCH deeper than it looks"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988247811016569189) 2025-11-11T14:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$XYZ really put their entire team on spamming Twitter with updates. Actually dont hate it since its not mindless pumping (looking at the $OPEN clown show)"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988261310799155217) 2025-11-11T15:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I am saying your merit and logic (random internet guy who reads news articles) is not equivalent to the merit and logic of the AI researchers at Google and OpenAI who know the people who were hired personally and professionally and told me what I posted here verbally. If you truly disagree with this you are wrong and potentially an idiot. There is no other alternative. You can choose to believe whatever you want"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988275401437630920) 2025-11-11T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So this post on GPU depreciation is generally correct but I want to point out something in the discourse that Ive noticed. Investors debating (or arguing) over these depreciation schedules always illustrate the perverse incentives from the perspective of the public market investor / investor relations team of the company versus the seller of the hardware that pushes things out on a replacement / upgrade cycle. New GPUs come out every [--] months The depreciation schedule should be 2-3 years at best No this is not true and it is flawed logic. GAAP guidance allows for us to say 5/7/X years so"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988290955816927373) 2025-11-11T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"NYC FROZE OVER HALAL FOOD IS STILL NOT CHEAP THANKS MAMDANI"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988307333055984079) 2025-11-11T18:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@komodo_capital Thanks boss 🫡"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988351512825810985) 2025-11-11T21:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"People love to cite early missteps (misleading advertising poor app UX) as reasons that these companies and products shouldnt exist at all. $DAVEs FTC / DOJ situation is infamous for this. But its clear that traditional banks have no intention of servicing this demographic properly or fairly so handing the business back to the banks would be a serious step backwards which is something that Congress tries to avoid (usually)"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988352861298717179) 2025-11-11T21:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mindset4Money_X Thank you I see your $DAVE coverage. Ill be releasing my own soon as well"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988353070615425404) 2025-11-11T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Heaviest exposure to $DAVE - near-term confidence is very high. Next is $AFRM - I can feel comfortable holding for 5-10 years without seriously considering selling given my conviction in what the future looks like $MQ - High conviction turnaround is now or within a few quarters. This is reaching escape velocity soon IMO $CHYM - Small exposure doing more research $KLAR - Considering earnings play given AFRM strength but not the winner in BNPL I would pick https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988391319396642980 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988391319396642980"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988391319396642980) 2025-11-11T23:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@AlohaOasis Just to be clear I do think $CHYM is on sale right now. It is absurdly cheap for the quality of the company. I just want to do a deep dive before thinking about target prices and such"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988399227769418210) 2025-11-12T00:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I do think $AFRM is best-in-class and a pretty straightforward long-term hold (5-10 years) as they have a lot of market share to take vs. traditional unsecured credit cards as well as greenfield demand from merchants. Not shady no late fees reports to credit bureaus a lot of risk discipline in what it takes to remain on the good side of capital partners takes the lead in innovating in the BNPL space -- all good things. I wrote an article here for "unsavory consumer fintechs" as I know you have that view. I'd like for you to read it if you have time because I think traditional bank investors"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988418656380846253) 2025-11-12T01:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Glad you found it helpful Stay tuned for $CHYM coverage I want to release some stuff over the next weeks. $AFRM's cost of capital is higher than banks because they don't fund through deposits but rather warehouse lines and the securitization / forward flow market. However cost of capital is not the only input for offers -- it's risk-adjusted underwriting. Affirm is the best at this from a BNPL perspective and it's also evident from their offerings (profitably underwriting interest-bearing loans and providing better offers to customers and better results for merchants). There's also an"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988450555539096023) 2025-11-12T03:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ericjackson Eric Jackson's now covering $DAVE. I wrote an X article today to help you understand Dave's business a bit here if anyone is interested: https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988239810847285500s=20 https://t.co/7vNTehMWa4 https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988239810847285500s=20 https://t.co/7vNTehMWa4"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988474462149235172) 2025-11-12T05:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Okay tbh I could do with a lot less Bitcoin pumping. I get that theyre focused on it but broadly institutional investors view it as a negative. Normally wouldnt be that bad but clearly people have hated it over the last 2-3 years and view it as supplemental to the $XYZ business not core. The nature of what theyre announcing still makes me believe there will be minimal uplift to the business from BTC. This is a supply-side solution for BTC payments but it lacks the demand. If you build it they will not come"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988630392367136996) 2025-11-12T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking at $SEZL Q3'25 earnings results and honestly don't understand how Sezzle bulls see this as a good quarter and have been crying wolf for the last week. If you ONLY look at total revenues and GMV then you could fool yourself. but this is horrendous IMO. Deeper analysis to come but it really looks like they are shitting the bed and my concerns on their short-term approach on monetizing all of their customers ASAP NOW without providing value that's worth the cost is proving 100% true"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988635618981593557) 2025-11-12T15:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$KLAR earnings next week is potentially an opportunity given the overall strength in BNPL growth we've seen across every major fintech company that talks about it. $AFRM $SEZL $PYPL $XYZ Their earnings being later than every other player may actually be a source of alpha"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988660297910124692) 2025-11-12T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ColinInv Im not a $SEZL short but frankly this quarter makes me wonder if I should be. Also have you looked at the SEZL chart What in the world about it makes you think shorts would be concerned"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988670174942359641) 2025-11-12T18:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Not with late fees increasing 40% QoQ and provisions for credit losses increasing 56% QoQ. GMV only increased 13% in the same period. Average loan tenor is [--] days so this likely means significant degradation in the quality of their underwriting (and therefore revenue) started happening last quarter and is rolling into this one. The earnings growth is mostly low quality late fees and increasing subscription pricing without increasing value provided. This makes a difference and nominal earnings growth is not the whole story ESPECIALLY with a lender. You can obviously invest that way if you"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988672589577781738) 2025-11-12T18:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Alexand92792198 I think they could be. Pretty much depends on their growth progress on interest-bearing loans in the U.S"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988673283613684112) 2025-11-12T18:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"You can definitely compare $AFRM to $SEZL on its merits. $KLAR as well. However Affirm and Klarna are built for scalability and moat via focusing on direct merchant integrations while Sezzle is built for profits at a smaller scale and a much less creditworthy customer base. I have never professed to comparing the above stocks to $PYPL (small % of business and different BNPL model) and $XYZ (too hard to break out Afterpay but to be clear Afterpay has the same direct merchant integration model). I will post my thesis on why I don't think $SEZL is a good bet relative to other BNPLs after the"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988714945924534424) 2025-11-12T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Macro guys keep complaining about $MSFT $AMZN $META & $GOOGL pouring billions into GPUs & yelling bubble because humans are terrible at recognizing exponential change while its happening. What looks like reckless CapEx is just hyperscalers buying future margin. These Macro guys keep complaining about $MSFT $AMZN $META & $GOOGL pouring billions into GPUs & yelling bubble because humans are terrible at recognizing exponential change while its happening. What looks like reckless CapEx is just hyperscalers buying future margin. These"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988721159672852975) 2025-11-12T21:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I am not saying it is DEFINITELY the best strategy. But I am saying it definitely is a good strategy and I will take the position that it certainly creates a moat. [--] years down the line a merchant who is integrated with both Affirm and Klarna (a common setup today in the early innings) with great volumes conversion and service is much less likely to stick their neck out to try out another BNPL provider especially if their customer base is not differentiated. These partnerships are not necessarily exclusive but they are pseudo-exclusive in a way. It certainly seems like integration and"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988725763822997868) 2025-11-12T21:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DeepDishEnjoyer Theoretically cheap on an earnings basis even ex-China. If there's anything that can keep hopium on for longer it's the actual inputs But you never know maybe Jensen will get back to signing some bazongas"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988728434252738948) 2025-11-12T21:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes I am operating under the assumption that there will be no contractual exclusivity for these merchant relationships. BNPLs will compete on the merits of their offering ie. reach of customer and conversion lift of offers. I also agree with $AFRM's decision in the excerpt that you snipped. This is a smart capital decision and they didn't commit the error of falling in love with a brand name. This was likely Klarna making a bad decision in order to grow their U.S. footprint which was behind. Walmart ALWAYS fleeces their fintech partners on deals. I remember that day pretty well -- I was the"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988748749493997580) 2025-11-12T23:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Im gonna backpedal my hyperbolic horrendous claim from this morning a little bit. I spent a lot of time looking at Sezzles Q3 today and think there are a ton of things that look really bad optically that management does a poor job of explaining or makes no real effort to. Someone without a deep understanding of the stock would never catch this and simply short based on the income statement and KPIs: Late fees provision for credit loss as % of GMV transactional expenses increasing questionable EBITDA and ANI addbacks. There are explanations for these things that require a bit of belief to see"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988769899087306920) 2025-11-13T00:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Slightly Optimistic with Extreme Caution - Sezzle Q3'25 Earnings Summary This took a lot more time than I expected but I wanted to do my negative view justice. I dont clickbait Im not a tunnel visioned shorter I am a subject matter expert in consumer fintech and have http://x.com/i/article/1988784640090394624 http://x.com/i/article/1988784640090394624"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988806007733043558) 2025-11-13T03:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"My long take on $SEZL Q3'25 earnings. For anyone wondering why this stock cratered from $180 to $60 with a 20% short interest while seemingly performing well at a surface level this is for you. https://t.co/ze0MTynyqh https://t.co/ze0MTynyqh"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988808518707892478) 2025-11-13T03:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Lucky you I will be writing up a $DAVE report next It is my most closely followed stock and I think its actually a very simple business and an hoping to get more investors eyeballs on it over the next year or two. I run this type of business in my day job so I know quite a lot about it. My price target is $320 in 2026E. Stay tuned"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988970570214482387) 2025-11-13T14:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Biased I would accept. Very biased is not correct IMO. I am presenting these views as a typical investor who does not spend a full day trying to figure out why all the bad trends may not be bad. I know why they are not as bad as they look and have presented those reasons too. That is not bias. If you are talking about my preference for $AFRM over $SEZL these are not sports teams. I am more comfortable with the risks and more optimistic about the products for the former and not the latter therefore I invested in one over the other. I am bullish BNPL broadly and wouldnt mind owning $AFRM $KLAR"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988972040552911048) 2025-11-13T14:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I will say that the history seems to indicate that their direction with Sezzle Anywhere appeared to not really be a choice. Their active merchants were declining every quarter for many quarters. I think they were forced to not play the AFRM KLAR Afterpay game. That being said companies chart their own path. It's entirely possible that the focused direct merchant integration path turns out to not be the best option in the future or SEZL finds a way around it (which it has for now at a smaller scale)"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989010017371226285) 2025-11-13T16:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$DAVE opportunity here. This thing has a beta of like [--] and pretty low volume so it moves like this regularly for better or for worse. If I were a swing trader or daytrader I would LOVE this stock"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989012658192896075) 2025-11-13T16:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@AlohaOasis I sold $20 strike puts expiring Jan [----] for a 50% yield (43% annualized yield) today. Breakeven of $10.31 which would be a crazy price for $CHYM to hit at a 1.3x EV to sales multiple for Q325 annualized revenue (and company is growing)"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989082843822317696) 2025-11-13T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TMTLongShort @rev_cap Way too rational of a take. Delete your account"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989151336001389040) 2025-11-14T02:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It's because $PYPL has disappointed everyone in the market for almost [--] years straight and people are tired of looking at until there is undeniable proof of a turnaround. We just saw quarter [--] of said turnaround so it will need time and continued execution. The CEO himself cautioned against optimism on the Q3'25 earnings call saying it would take another year"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989429381513834660) 2025-11-14T20:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Nonsense take. Looking only at revenue growth % is for kindergarteners. They broke promises to investors to offload loans from balance sheet faster and they indicated that their AI model was literally stopping their revenue growth. For an AI model-centric loan selling company that's obviously concerning to investors. $UPST along with $CVNA was one of the losers in capital partners broadly pulling back from "lower quality" originators. On the other side of that were $LC $SOFI $AFRM $PGY"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989439525907767607) 2025-11-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheShortBear $DAVE $AFRM look light. Moved significantly down on broader market weakness after great Q3 earnings calls. Will be writing up $DAVE myself this weekend"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989440189387718856) 2025-11-14T21:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@kakashiii111 Imagine thinking $CRWV is a hyperscaler business. My god what is wrong with you people"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989440419697233969) 2025-11-14T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Visa and Mastercard are perpetually "will go up" bets. The question is how much and the answer for some time has been typically slightly above the rate of spend increase plus whatever premium the market is willing to bid them up because they are safe bets. This isn't a hot take"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989509242424811552) 2025-11-15T01:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I've talked about like [--] stocks total in my [--] active weeks on Twitter so I have literally no idea how you got to that conclusion that my portfolio is no good. My biggest position is also $DAVE and I've been long on and off since like $30 so you're being weirdly aggressive for someone whose 25% of A-tier stocks I literally have had up to a 40% weight in my portfolio in the last [--] years. Stocks are not sports teams and just because I'm not bullish your SECOND favorite stock means you think you can be a dick My $DAVE report comes out next. If you are rude for no reason one more I will block you"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989513208734900306) 2025-11-15T01:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Been busy so just getting to this re $SEZL. I think on MODS and the push-and-pull between On-demand and Subscribers. Don't overthink it the CEO told you exactly what was happening. They are experimenting with the conversions and LTVs in real-time this was not tested (or testable) for every scenario broadly before initially rolling the feature out. This is a normal thing to happen at a company and the unfortunate thing is it is management's stated highest priority and it is not going exactly as planned in the public eye. I don't have a huge problem with it but it is just more uncertainty. More"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989522614113468871) 2025-11-15T02:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@nachunja @Mantra02153307 @BlockIR If Satoshi Dorsey used some of his BTC to buy $XYZ then wowza the stock would 🚀🚀🚀"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989527117541826995) 2025-11-15T02:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@onetimeitsmine Yes famously known for their credit cards What even is this nonsense take $XYZ"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989698181571985552) 2025-11-15T14:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think his point on not over-investing in a single generation of anything is smart. They seem "behind" because everyone wants to fulfill demand now but future data centers are only going to get more efficient. A patient player only loses if the demand is truly time-sensitive and goes away. None of the big guys have shown any sign of believing demand will decrease in the next 2-3 years"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989714707243053085) 2025-11-15T15:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@5STARS0UL @PaulTompkinsRE @j0hnwang how else do you think the investment bank prices offerings Do you think they just throw darts until institutional investors call them up to buy"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1989824042862321719) 2025-11-15T22:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Low volume little institutional research coverage high volatility. $DAVE is essentially a playground for traders with fundamental buyers typically being support when it goes under $200. It is currently trading at 11x annualized Q325 P/E and under 10x 2026E P/E for a company growing 30% YoY with extremely high cash flow conversion (will get even higher after full migration to Coastal banking partner)"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1990492567507505502) 2025-11-17T18:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Cool X is back. Other than $NET collapsing because of this morning's technical issues there was another one: $KLAR results were okay. They beat expectations on GMV but growth in U.S. Fair Financing (which I said since their S-1 is mandatory for them to focus on growing) has led to compressed transaction margins given the provisioning required to start up a larger longer-duration loan portfolio. I think the CEO did a good job in the beginning explaining why the future of consumer credit is BNPL and will replace credit card usage as we know it. The market probably will still remain ignorant to"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1990788051262464380) 2025-11-18T14:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@WagieCapital Same here for fintech coverage overall. A lot of high quality companies out with the bathwater. $DAVE is under 10x forward P/E immensely profitable and growing 30% YoY"
[X Link](https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1990791945158025468) 2025-11-18T14:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@BarnieTaintpipe Barnacle Taintpipe
Barnacle Taintpipe posts on X about fintech, $afrm, $dave, $chym the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---] #
- [--] Week [-----] -74%
- [--] Month [------] +35%
- [--] Months [-------] +50,751%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] -36%
- [--] Month [--] +43%
- [--] Months [---] +3,756%
Followers: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] +1.90%
- [--] Month [---] +14%
- [--] Months [---] +1,743%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks finance technology brands cryptocurrencies countries social networks celebrities gaming fashion brands financial services
Social topic influence fintech, $afrm #20, $dave #13, $chym #5, business, $xyz, $sezl #25, $klar #32, $mq, ceo
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @aureliusltd28 @nachunja @4thpillar @bobspaysubstack @alohaoasis @komodocapital @andrewm61370616 @krispatel99 @0xmerridew @wagiecapital @cariocapital @paulcerro @nanselmo92 @oxeinvesting @alexhjohnson @kenmegan44 @shawnkwon11 @marqeta @jbulltard1 @apompliano
Top assets mentioned Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Dave Inc. (DAVE) Chime Financial, Inc (CHYM) Block, Inc. (XYZ) Sezzle Inc. Common Stock (SEZL) Klarna Group plc (KLAR) Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Fiserv, Inc. (FI) RAI Finance (SOFI) Metadium (META) IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Intuit Inc. (INTU) Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Opendoor Technologies Inc Common Stock (OPEN) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) Dash (DASH) Carvana Co. (CVNA) Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) asscoin (ASSCOIN) StaFi (FIS) Global Payments Inc (GPN) McDonald's Corp (MCD)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@joecarlsonshow $DAVE. Payday lending disruptor for short-term cash advances with underwriting and repayment moat. Probably room to go from $270 to $350 by 2025E year end"
X Link 2025-07-03T05:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Nanselmo92 @AlohaOasis @OxeInvesting @komodo_capital @AndrewM61370616 @KrisPatel99 The dildo of fintech liquidity provides low-income consumers with the opportunity for both pleasure and pain"
X Link 2025-07-09T04:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Nanselmo92 @AlohaOasis @OxeInvesting @komodo_capital @AndrewM61370616 @KrisPatel99 I don't really know how you can take this position when you are so bullish $SOFI and Galileo powers that entire operation by the way"
X Link 2025-07-09T14:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Nanselmo92 @AlohaOasis @OxeInvesting @komodo_capital @AndrewM61370616 @KrisPatel99 I didn't say they were moral or sustainable. I prefer to invest in evil high margin companies that will collapse imminently"
X Link 2025-07-10T19:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@4thPillar_ @Aureliusltd28 By deep dive I guess you mean you just read it Fintwit always gasses up their own knowledge of things they have surface level understanding of. How much are they getting fined"
X Link 2025-07-12T01:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 [--]. Subscription - Similarly a customer needs to be careful when signing up. If they just click the buttons for account creation to use Dave ASAP they may inadvertently subscribe. However these subscriptions are smaller and won't result in a meaningful fine"
X Link 2025-07-12T02:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 They've reserved $7M in legal accrual (already hit P&L) and anything in excess of that as determined by DOJ will be paid. This is not going to break the business and maybe will be on the lower end of an 8-figure number. But it is not a go-forward risk"
X Link 2025-07-12T02:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 Particularly as the business starts to spit out $40-50M+ in operating income per quarter. My guess is a fine or settlement hits in Q3'25 and the overhang will be removed since the pricing model already changed away from tipping and they've addressed the advance items"
X Link 2025-07-12T02:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 I have $510-520M revenue $220-230M Adj. EBITDA (45% margin) $192M Adj. NI (37%) for full year 2025E not accounting for an TBD one-time impact of the DOJ settlement. Put w/e multiple you want on that for a 40-50% topline YoY but I wouldn't bet on $75. @4thPillar_"
X Link 2025-07-12T02:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Future 10-bagger Let me drop you the real thesis on $SNAP. Management has literally no idea how their own business works. They alternate beats and misses almost every earnings. This is indicative of a low ability to forecast their own business with any real rigor so they rely on sandbagging then trending out their business in too optimistic of a way that doesnt end up playing out in a [--] month cycle almost perfectly for the last 3-4 years. You want to make 10x on $SNAP Its not from holding it go long next earnings because they fucked up this one. After that one go short. Rinse and repeat"
X Link 2025-08-29T06:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"How would someone know"
X Link 2025-09-25T19:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Weird that you can just have a direct personal relationship with the CEO and pump his shitco fraud stock while being paid by him whether directly and indirectly"
X Link 2025-09-25T19:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I dont think this is a good nuanced take. BNPL is a superior value than credit cards for merchants who market on Affirms behalf for free better for the consumer (in all but product UX and financially for 100% non-revolvers) who pay less on average due to defined interest payments and economically better from a risk perspective due to having a transaction-by-transaction underwriting practice that is difficult to replicate. In 10-20 years I suspect a large amount of the credit card revolver market will be taken by BNPL (AFRM or otherwise but I believe AFRM will be the big winner here) credit"
X Link 2025-10-14T15:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@AlexH_Johnson @mikulaja AFRM can be much bigger and much more complex than the company we all see today. Very early innings for them (ironically not unlike the journey Capital One went through pioneering subprime CC underwriting). See my reply to Jason would be curious on your takes"
X Link 2025-10-14T15:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Do you know the rate of revolving for superprime and prime plus customers per the CFPB (2023 report) Spoilers Its 20% and 40% respectively. Keep in mind I am making a distinction between revolvers out of necessity and just people who revolve for fun. There exists a population of people perfectly able to pay off their balances and simply dont out of negligence. Many of these better quality customers would be on AmEx and they are extremely profitable. My point on 100% non-revolvers is BNPL is a superior experience if you make really any accidental CC revolver payments"
X Link 2025-10-14T15:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I hear you. My view on AFRM vs rest of BNPL today is that commoditization has already started to occur in the split pay type BNPLs but not on AFRMs majority (70% of GMV) transaction-by-transaction interest-bearing personal loan underwriting. So I think there are incremental things offering-wise worth $$$ to merchants. On the PayPal and Afterpay type stuff I dont see a huge amount of value to the merchant and agree that will become less or unsustainable if a race to the bottom starts"
X Link 2025-10-14T17:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I'd caution you on following Unicus too closely (though I trust their work on CVNA). I have never had a position in CVNA and I would more likely be short than long but as an operator and expert in the space their commentary on low-income and consumer lending in the Steve Eisman podcast was not at all informed and very irresponsible which makes me doubt their credibility across sectors which they are not specialized in"
X Link 2025-10-17T15:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Quantum computing is an obvious answer -- IONQ has the most heavy retail leverage of the group; QUBT is the most obvious fraud of the group; RGTI has a CEO with 0% ownership publicly stating the price of the company is too high QC stocks are in a bubble and they will definitely not breakeven for at least [--] years (if at all)"
X Link 2025-10-17T15:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I know this is just a surface-level multiples view but this is a very bad take. From a profitability EBITDA to cash flow conversion and customer payback perspective $DAVE is far superior to $CHYM. DAVE also does not ask its investors to believe in a $400M+ per year marketing spend story for [--] month paybacks like CHYM does. The reality is DAVE has passed its first few prove it measures in the public markets while CHYM has done nothing of the sort. CHYM needs to deliver user growth profitability WHILE improving margins (which they have only decreased due to timing of MyPay launch with IPO)."
X Link 2025-10-18T14:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$CHYM will be fine as a company in the long-run but the reality is their strategy is to be the lowest cost low-income neobank. For a $500 draw a Chime user will pay $2 while a Dave user will pay $15. At some point you are simply not pricing efficiently. Yes Chime should take the business over time but people are used to Dave and it is reliable and if you are not a direct depositor at Chime you will get a MUCH higher limit at Dave. Cash App Borrow is simply not run effectively. I wouldnt put them in the same race until Cash App management can prove their heads are no longer firmly lodged past"
X Link 2025-10-18T14:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bobspaysubstack @Aem424 Disclaimer: I am long $DAVE and watching $CHYM like a hawk. But my personal view is now is not the time for CHYM. These two are arguably my strongest competitors in my day job"
X Link 2025-10-18T14:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"In the very long-term view you are correct. However where you may be missing is in the medium-term. You make it sound like $CHYM launched their $2 advance product by accident or something. They watched Dave Varo Albert Current Cash App Earnin and others do EVERYTHING that they did and they specifically chose to do this. This is because ultimately Chime is a marketing and networks effects company and they are most well-capitalized to do so and at scale. Their strategy is to acquire with the lowest priced product suite for their users. So I think it is a bad bet to think before MyPay hits scale"
X Link 2025-10-18T15:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I posted part of that view here just now: I don't think $DAVE fees will come down. I predict that their next step is actually to move up their pricing cap to allow for even more profitability. For reference they are priced at 5% of draw with a $5 floor and a $15 cap (so technically DAVE is only getting paid for the first $300 of advance extended). So I think this $15 cap will move to $20 (so $400 of advance) or higher especially as they test extending higher and higher limits which of course means more risk of loss which they need to get compensated for. $XYZ can't really bring it down for"
X Link 2025-10-18T15:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"For those that got burned rotating into $BYND I think you can still make money by rotating back into $IONQ. if you loved it at 1000x sales you'll love it at 997x"
X Link 2025-10-22T16:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Really depends which private credit lenders you're talking about. I think anyone thinking $APO or anyone in that tier is at risk should be committed to an institution. Demand to make loans outstrips supply to make loans within a certain standard of credit underwriting. but there are a range of outcomes for those who can manage loosening standards for acceptable risk/return versus going gangbusters with no regard to risk. Market commentators act like there is a default guaranteed every time someone ventures slightly outside of their credit box"
X Link 2025-10-22T20:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SarAEsQMd Bruh"
X Link 2025-10-22T22:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 Correct on offshore but look at $VAL"
X Link 2025-10-23T01:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 all of the oil experts I know tell me $VAL good $RIG not as good. i don't read i just jack it to subprime fintech lenders"
X Link 2025-10-23T01:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"To be fair $META did trade at $80 for practically nonsense capex fears and $GOOG did trade at $150 for search cannibalization fears both of which were complete non-issues. Now its probably a retail consumer and cloud comps fear for $AMZN which seems like it could also be a non-issue. Not defending the guy because I dont know any of his three theses for the respective names but a value buy is a value buy even if theyre the biggest brand names in the world"
X Link 2025-10-23T02:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@amitisinvesting You can tell this is just pump material because 4/5 names are the public quantum cos that aren't leaders including $QUBT (which is actually a fraud) and no mention of $MSFT $GOOG $IBM (which the U.S. govt would obviously back first) and other private QC leaders"
X Link 2025-10-23T03:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@DrocDolf This was what I latched onto. So odd for $QBTS (quantum annealing) and $QUBT (actual fraudco) to be included so much so that it must be BS"
X Link 2025-10-23T03:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SarAEsQMd ima bruh you again tomorrow if IONQ goes down and say nothing if it goes up"
X Link 2025-10-23T21:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3 [----] Earnings I'm Watching 10/28 $PYPL - Watch for Braintree turnaround BNPL growth (particularly in interest-bearing this matters a lot more than Fintwit thinks) Venmo is an embedded option. Market probably now undervaluing this simply on a brutal [--] years of new CEO trimming the fat and focusing on profitable business; turnaround isn't priced in IMO"
X Link 2025-10-24T21:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 10/28 $SOFI - I think as usual $SOFI fintwit bulls probably get this right in terms of good results but not really knowing why. Need to watch for official incorporation of losing $CHYM in guidance. The execution in the rest of the business has really covered up what a shitshow Galileo has been and continues to be. If you can't keep the biggest neobank in the game then who is your customer base really End of student loan moratorium can add interesting momentum to the business where it hasn't been available in the last few years. I predict the"
X Link 2025-10-24T21:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/4 $DAVE - The EWA company that trades like $ASSCOIN. First of its kind as a non-shitty public company. New financial product super misunderstood business model low volume SPAC-level research coverage (ie. no one anyone pays attention to) keeps many players out of researching / touching the name. $DAVE continues its slow grind proving that it is an EBITDA / cash flow machine while growing 50% YoY. Doubters underestimate the size of the demand in this space and can't wrap their head around the business. The most cynical take you can have is"
X Link 2025-10-24T21:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/5 $MQ - BaaS platform most well known for powering Cash App (so tied to $XYZ earnings as well). Also has super interesting momentum on BNPL cards and attached to great up and coming brand names within fintech such as Ramp $UBER and $DASH programs. Honestly I think the market has literally forgotten about this stock and has been in full wait-and-see mode for [--] years. The last time any analyst has looked at this stock and given half a fuck was back when it was 75% concentrated in Cash App (that is now 47%). They are still working through a"
X Link 2025-10-24T21:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/5 $SEZL - $AFRM and $KLAR's special cousin. Think of this as a BNPL that plays further down the income spectrum than AFRM and KLAR. Although listening to the CEO on the last earnings call he may be on another spectrum. Essentially they charge $12/mo and $17/mo (from memory could be outdated) to do less than what $AFRM does for the people that don't have access to AFRM because they kick you out with their underwriting. Successfully monetizing where others do not could in some cases be a bull argument but subscription revenues have actually been"
X Link 2025-10-24T21:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/5 $CHYM - First public neobank with an extremely simple but still misunderstood business model. At its core $CHYM is an extremely simple company. Spend a ton of money on marketing acquire users get them to be direct depositors and keep that relationship to pay off that marketing spend over time. Investors may think its bullshit if I explain it like this -- it can be modeled the same way as a SaaS business given its predictable conversion retention and LTV -- but this is completely true. Converting and keeping a direct depositor is the hardest"
X Link 2025-10-24T21:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/6 - $AFRM the crown jewel of modern fintech IMO. All eyes are on AFRM. They are expected to deliver across the board on GMV growth RLTC margins B/S efficiency. As with $SEZL and $DAVE the question is loss rates. Can AFRM prove yet again that it has vastly superior underwriting to its peers as it claims to Can it show the market that in a time where subprime credit has shown early signs of deterioration that it either 1) is not happening to AFRM or 2) is rising but not in an alarming way In general I view $AFRM and $DAVE as the best underwriters"
X Link 2025-10-24T22:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@4thPillar_ @shortbus_ace Call me when you pivot to subprime fintech lending"
X Link 2025-10-24T23:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Watching Grok slowly update with the $BYND bondholder shares information which was readily available last week (exclusively to people who can read) to show only 10% short as % of float and watching the apes go from wholeheartedly believing everything it told them with old data to condemning it and saying it is lying is wild to watch. The robot does not learn fast enough to give you real-time trading advice get over it. Also stop getting pump and dumped your money is going to the hedge funds that you claim to be "owning" https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1981867230888415682"
X Link 2025-10-24T23:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@FabAIQuantum the quantum community's bar for cleverness is beating YAHOO FINANCE and the WALL STREET JOURNAL bruh put the fries in the bag"
X Link 2025-10-24T23:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/6 - $XYZ -- A confusing story where the market is firmly in wait-and-see mode both because the business itself requires turnaround and a re-ignition of what was great momentum and because Dorsey a CEO that is viewed as unstable shareholder-unfriendly and prone to wandering off on Bitcoin adventures. Square had self-admittedly dropped the ball. It was obvious in their numbers and $TOST's success over a year ago and subject to a very candid discussion on Block's earnings call earlier this year. Dorsey and the Square CPO promised investors that a"
X Link 2025-10-25T19:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@nachunja @blocks @BlockIR @emcross23 If there's anything $XYZ is very good at it is having a cool and visionary Investor Day🙂"
X Link 2025-10-25T19:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Consumer Fintech Q3'25 Earnings I'm Watching 11/18 - $KLAR -- Why are you reporting two weeks later than all other fintechs The BNPL that people think is neck-and-neck with $AFRM but it really is not. Here's my issue with Klarna: They are very very Swedish. PLASTERED all over their S-1 are messages about how banks are evil interest payments are criminal being focused on a profitable business is awful etc. Yet the key to its growth and beating competition is interest-bearing BNPL. On its face this is not a recipe for success in the public markets. You may think that this is just rhetoric and"
X Link 2025-10-25T20:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fundamentally: Did all $BYND holders forget about Impossible Foods This is not a market they are in completely uncontested. And Impossible is bigger (and tastes better from the one time I tried both). Why is this suddenly a movement from people who have never tried one of these in their lives I know the answer is you people just saw a public stock that had a high short interest and created a narrative around it. Technically: Almost nothing in your post is accurate. Why are you doing this Why are you pretending you are a fundamental bull and tagging RoaringKitty and GME I know the Trump admin"
X Link 2025-10-25T21:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@0xMerridew Scott Bessent's gayness may be rubbing off on him After the midterms they will rub one off together"
X Link 2025-10-26T18:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@UnicusResearch @andrewrsorkin This is extremely bullish $AFRM but I guess lets ignore that Do you guys know that BNPL is just another mechanism similar to a credit card What do you people even think a credit card is"
X Link 2025-10-27T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@UnicusResearch $AFRM will be fine You on the other hand have zero idea what you are talking about when it comes to BNPL anything. Stay in your lane and talk about autos"
X Link 2025-10-28T03:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$SOFI IS DOWN 2% AT TIME OF POST🔴 🟢GREAT QUARTER FROM SOFI OVERALL 🟢GROWTH IN PERSONAL BANKING AND LOAN PLATFORM IS PRETTY GOOD 🔴I KEEP SAYING THIS $SOFI BULLS DON'T SEEM TO LISTEN. TECH PLATFORM IS BAD BAD BAD (but small-ish relative to the rest of their business so it's fine. I'm not saying it's a sell on the stock I am saying it is not helpful to the bull thesis like people claim) 🟢DELINQUENCIES ARE DOING GREAT BUT EVERYONE EXPECTED THIS GIVEN OTHER LENDING REPORTS (BIG BANKS AND LENDINGCLUB) But guys for real when you guys run up a stock 10-15% a few days before earnings you are"
X Link 2025-10-28T13:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"GOODBYE $FI FISERV DEAD ON Q325 EARNINGS AND A FULL RESET OF COMPANY PRIORITIES AND STRATEGY AND I ASSUME DELEVERAGING I BET THEY WISH THEY COULD DO LEVERED BUYBACKS NOW BUT NOW THEY ARE TOO LEVERED AND DID SHARE BUYBACKS AT $493747 PER SHARE GOOD MANAGEMENT VERY VISIONARY MUCH FINANCIAL ENGINEERING SUCH WOW This is a $PYPL moment where the new CEO arrived looked around and said what in the actual fuck are you guys doing Im not putting my name on this Even with the share price this much lower I wont be touching this until the CEO broadcasts any semblance of confidence and my guess is it wont"
X Link 2025-10-29T13:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@bobspaysubstack Let us all join hands and feel confident in our social security program together"
X Link 2025-10-29T13:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$SNAP This earnings will be a beat They do beat miss beat miss beat on earnings in an alternating fashion Old investors hate this strategy Bet on the management team being so bad that their guidance is just irrelevant DISCLAIMER: This is unfortunately only partially a joke"
X Link 2025-10-29T14:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@WagieCapital You are using too much of your brain for $SNAP I assure you it its not necessary"
X Link 2025-10-29T14:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I mean anyone thats thought about integrating a single acquisition of a company would probably have a seizure looking at what $FI has done. I certainly dont truly understand their business even after looking at it for a while due to the M&A complexity. Im sure its a mess internally and headaches all around"
X Link 2025-10-30T03:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is probably a hot take today but honestly all of you hedge fund / PE / fintwit influencers that think you know how to run $META better than Mark Zuckerberg are actually retarded Like seriously are we doing this again How many times do you need to be wrong before you just decide to stop giving your wrong opinion"
X Link 2025-10-30T05:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I work in fintech with reasonable operational complexity and I can honestly say not once have I read though a $FI $FIS $GPN report or filing and came out thinking yeah I know exactly what these guys do in each segment or yep this is the purpose of that acquisition so you are spot on"
X Link 2025-10-30T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yep I recently started a L/S with some partners as kind of the de facto fintech guy and they asked me about my opinion on $FI and all I really could say was heh idk man I dont get it A company you need a merger model to understand every year is just something no one really wants to buy. Different industry but $CWAN has like [--] simultaneous acquisitions and is just getting killed even though its probably a great pro forma company. Its much too much to ask the market to digest"
X Link 2025-10-30T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@4thPillar_ Dan Perlin is a homie"
X Link 2025-10-30T16:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DarioCpx @RealJimChanos This post just demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of basic financial statements. I am not a $CVNA bull and would short it before I would long it but this is just totally wrong Expecting a deletion in like [--] days"
X Link 2025-10-30T17:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@aleabitoreddit Look at $MQ $DAVE if you want to expand scope of sector. Newer type of fintech cos and products"
X Link 2025-10-30T17:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I dont think that is the right take for $MQ. Its the [----] view of them from when they were 70%+ concentrated in Cash App (nothing to do with Square even at the time). Now it is around 45% with business banking (Ramp) BNPL (like $AFRM $KLAR) and other partnerships like $UBER $DASH contributing to volumes. Cash position and FCF still good buybacks going strong at a low valuation before a sustained turnaround recognized by the market Take another look IMO. Short writeups on both names as well as other fintech on my profile https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1983955070564901137"
X Link 2025-10-30T17:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Also Im not sure what you mean exactly by they can announce their own cards in relation to $XYZ but I guarantee at their scale and dependence on a processor like $MQ that they will not be doing that. It is simply not their focus and they dont have the expertise for that. It took $CHYM [--] years of focused efforts to migrate off of Galileo (acquired by $SOFI) in order to run and launch card products independently. Block will not do this https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1983956179312382063 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1983956179312382063"
X Link 2025-10-30T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CarioCapital @Kenmegan44 This literally just means they use $GOOG for advertising. My company uses Google PMax too Most companies use Google for advertising"
X Link 2025-10-30T18:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@CarioCapital @Kenmegan44 So its irrelevant in the context of $SOFI then"
X Link 2025-10-30T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is not correct with respect to how market making works and weird that you just decided to make this up Market makers hedge the upside or downside movement of the underlying shares but they also need the shares in the first place for MM hedging strategies to make sense. Your assumption that JPM is taking a directional bet in either direction is incorrect"
X Link 2025-10-31T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes I am saying your critique of what Paul said is wrong. The share inventories required for institutional lending for short selling arent always fully covered by fully paid securities lending programs run by retail brokers to lend to institutions like youre saying. Youre assuming the existence of this program that you know about is enough to solve the actual demand which is not true. Many market makers need to shore up inventory of highly demanded stocks for shorting for which you see is typically a lot of retail-heavy names such as $HIMS as retail is more price-insensitive causing"
X Link 2025-10-31T17:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@4thPillar_ @shortbus_ace Yeah Pikachus tail is actually yellow with some brown connecting to the body"
X Link 2025-10-31T17:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This would be a mistake for the $PYPL team Not only for themselves in general but also right now the image of a payments company being too trigger happy with M&A is very bad People forget but $INTU was also killed last quarter over being too acquisitive. The fintech space seems tired of acquisitions that are too aspirational and wont believe anything until they see results"
X Link 2025-10-31T19:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Kross_Roads @KrisPatel99 Mailchimp can hardly be described as a rough patch in hindsight. It is currently the main overhang on $INTU stock"
X Link 2025-10-31T19:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think we are not on opposing sides here. But my point is considering he saw the fallout of Mailchimp and in an environment where $FI and $INTU (among others such as $GPN and $FOUR) are being punished by the market for M&A the solution is not doing large acquisitions for growth. As an actual operator having cash is not a reason to do an acquisition. Needing growth is also not a reason to do an acquisition. So unless there is a truly compelling opportunity that $PYPL can pay attention to integrating while also continuing to turn around PayPal Venmo (and integrating this which they failed at"
X Link 2025-10-31T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Pablo01618 As a bull for both $DAVE and $PGY and an operator in the subprime fintech industry just FYI DAVE's results pretty much have nothing to do with PGY so I'd recommend decoupling those being correlated in your head"
X Link 2025-11-04T13:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Pablo01618 Yep I am just saying the datasets and credit products for both companies are completely different so even if the $DAVE AI model works that doesn't mean the $PGY or $UPST AI models will"
X Link 2025-11-04T14:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$DAVE Q3'25 Results REVENUES UP 63% 🟢 GROSS PROFIT UP 62% 🟢 GAAP NET INCOME UP 19658% (FOR THOSE THAT INSISTED THIS METRIC MATTERED LAST QUARTER - IT DIDN'T) 🟢🟢🟢 ADJ EBITDA UP 137% 🟢 ADJ NET INCOME UP 193% 🟢 ADJ EPS UP 181% 🟢 CAC FOR NEW ACCOUNTS AND TRANSACTING MEMBERS DOWN 🟢 CONVERSION UP 🟢 DELINQUENCIES LOWER 🟢 GUIDANCE RAISED (MORE THAN USUAL) 🟢 Outstanding quarter from $DAVE. Will share more as I work through the results It is good to see the exceptional performance of the business of course. What I would highlight is a continued effort to explain their story around"
X Link 2025-11-04T14:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$APO +7% post-earnings I thought private credit was dying. It seems no one remembers our 1-day long regional banking crisis Shadow banking is evil All private credit lenders will go bankrupt As it turns out high-quality players and the best underwriters / those with the best leverage will continue to win while lower-quality could struggle a bit. $APO is a great example of a winner in a more credit-stressed environment. $ARES a little down the spectrum but still a winner. $OWL a lot more down the spectrum and maybe not a winner. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985739080915685799"
X Link 2025-11-04T16:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jssgf @capital_mindset I am very heavily exposed in my personal portfolio at lower cost basis so not adding in PA. Fund added today after $DAVE fell from +12% to -4%. Stock got cheaper after this earnings which I view as a significant de-risk"
X Link 2025-11-04T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sounds like $UPST: [--]. Blamed their AI model for underperformance (the AI model is the entire business model) [--]. Couldn't get loans off their balance sheet fast enough for the market to feel comfortable [--]. Sees a healthy consumer generally Whether $UPST investors like it or not the ultra-high multiple dooms it when execution isn't perfect and all news isn't good. With the $LC and $SOFI commentary it seems that we are seeing the first high-profile player that is potentially on the other side of the capital providers pulling back from lower-quality originators so investors are reacting to this"
X Link 2025-11-05T04:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ShawnKwon11 I know you're the idiot leader of the gambling 10x levered retail Koreans and not smart enough to read but these are just $AMZN warrant exercises on $IONQ which they got practically for free"
X Link 2025-11-05T06:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""EARNINGS GROWTH IS RUNNING AT 10% YOY BULLISH" PROCEEDS TO TAG $IONQ $OKLO AT 1000X SALES Rate cuts have arrived deregulation is here earnings growth is running at 10%+ YoY and the AI Revolution is accelerating. Ignore the noise. $IONQ $OKLO Rate cuts have arrived deregulation is here earnings growth is running at 10%+ YoY and the AI Revolution is accelerating. Ignore the noise. $IONQ $OKLO"
X Link 2025-11-05T06:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@fallacyalarm You people know you can invest in capex to make more money in the near to medium-term and then just. stop right This is not the first time this has happened $AMZN $META $GOOG $MSFT $TSM"
X Link 2025-11-05T06:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ShawnKwon11 $MS is doing this so they can run share offerings for $IONQ farther past that price. Otherwise they would not be able to sell an IONQ offering at $70 as effectively to investors if their PT was too far off. This is a signal for further dilution"
X Link 2025-11-05T07:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Most smokers nicotine pouch users and lottery players are lower income so yeah those specific people cant afford to eat partially because they choose to do that You can choose to support that behavior and thats not necessarily a problem in and of itself I just prefer my money to not be used that way. I can see the benefit in the perfect scenario but the execution is so complex that it is a questionable effort and use of funds"
X Link 2025-11-05T18:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Seems fintech stocks are waking up for $CHYM $MQ $SEZL earnings AH $CHYM price action is very bullish. Makes sense because they are super cheap on a valuation basis. I would guess over 50% upside over a year if they just hit sell-side estimates and explain their story better $MQ also dirt cheap turnaround story. Dependent on $XYZ $AFRM $KLAR performance and for the first time in years I don't think that's a bad thing $SEZL is a hilarious stock chart. I don't have an opinion other than it is strictly a worse version of $AFRM. Short interest is massive so a good quarter can pop this thing."
X Link 2025-11-05T19:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Quick hits more to come later: $CHYM - Execution was in line announced $200M buyback program which is perfect for their giant cash pile and too-low valuation. I suspect now that the stock has found its first floor post-IPO this will trade at a more normal level $MQ - Great quarter beats growth acceleration guidance raised FCF strength as expected excellent progress on buyback program given it continued to be severely depressed after the Q2'25 earnings $SEZL - Haven't looked but it went from 20% AH to flat so not sure what's going on here. Will dig in but after the other two names which are my"
X Link 2025-11-05T21:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"VICTORY LAP HERE DON'T OVERTHINK THIS STOCK $SNAP IS RUN BY IDIOT MONKEYS I KNEW THIS WOULD BE A BEAT MY ANALYSIS IS PERFECT SEE YOU NEXT QUARTER THEY WILL MISS @WagieCapital @WagieCapital $SNAP This earnings will be a beat They do beat miss beat miss beat on earnings in an alternating fashion Old investors hate this strategy Bet on the management team being so bad that their guidance is just irrelevant DISCLAIMER: This is unfortunately only partially @WagieCapital $SNAP This earnings will be a beat They do beat miss beat miss beat on earnings in an alternating fashion Old investors hate this"
X Link 2025-11-05T21:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The $MQ management team may as well be busting straight into my ears on this earnings call"
X Link 2025-11-05T21:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit did you ever look / buy This Q3'25 call for $MQ is good"
X Link 2025-11-05T21:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think $DASH $UBER increasing optionality for those willing to pay for different restaurants has partially contributed to reduction in traffic to the chains particularly the expensive ones without meaningful rewards programs. $MCD and $DPZ being classic examples on the other side of the spectrum of being cheap and having great loyalty deals that seem to have been successful in keeping customers retained"
X Link 2025-11-05T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The $CHYM CEO is boring as fuck maybe that's why his stock is undervalued from a multiples perspective"
X Link 2025-11-05T22:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The $CHYM CFO is boring as fuck maybe that's why his stock is undervalued from a multiples perspective The $CHYM CEO is boring as fuck maybe that's why his stock is undervalued from a multiples perspective The $CHYM CEO is boring as fuck maybe that's why his stock is undervalued from a multiples perspective"
X Link 2025-11-05T22:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@nachunja I'm biased but definitely agree probably worth a lot more than +7% AH I think chalk it up to there being a billion other companies to listen to at the exact same time"
X Link 2025-11-05T22:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OnodaCapital The other ones are indeed clowny but $RELY stands out from this list to me as an interesting choice. I don't own any but my understanding is it hasn't really been a crazy clown stock and is kind of just a smaller $WISE with a less aggressive multiple"
X Link 2025-11-05T22:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"There is a lot of nuance in this. $MCD and $CMG see lower traffic = "the people are struggling they are not buying our food." But $CHYM and $DAVE both said on their Q3'25 earnings calls that low-income spending incomes employment and merchant mix has not meaningfully changed so something else is happening that's more complex and probably in-between those two clickbait-worthy headlines"
X Link 2025-11-05T23:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Lets_Make_It_2 @Futurenvesting @Kenmegan44 This is not happening. $CHYM has spent [--] years on this migration to make sure it works"
X Link 2025-11-06T00:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think you are actually wrong about $SEZL. They fell from a 15x sales multiple to 7x in an industry where players trade at 3-6x so they were still priced at a premium as a company that grows at 60% YoY maybe deserves. But the things that Sezzle could have missed on would have sent it down another 10% namely delinquencies rising in an environment where everyone is pulling back from low-quality lenders / subprime / scared of credit. In that case you certainly would not be left holding a generational buy. Youd be holding another fintech trading at 5x sales which is pretty much normal. I am not"
X Link 2025-11-06T01:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@RentYourStocks Also $SEZL is not in the same space as $FI unless you just broadly meant fintech which is true but not very meaningful"
X Link 2025-11-06T01:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"okay this premarket price action for $MQ makes a lot more sense to me goes to show no one prioritizes listening to $MQ after hours vs. $CHYM $SEZL $HOOD fingers crossed that $5.50 holds but regardless this is bullish. my scratchpad price target for $MQ is $9 conservatively based on actuals. can go much much much higher with continued execution and growth from $XYZ and $AFRM $KLAR"
X Link 2025-11-06T13:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$CHYM price action being practically flat. yeah this unfortunately makes sense Management said nothing on the call to be excited about. Could barely explain a part of their business ("OITs") after spending 30% of the call talking about it. This is also like 5% of their revenue probably. Waste of time $200M buyback program is a GREAT move. Big cash pile. Low multiple. HOWEVER launching this after a $900M SBC quarter in Q2'25 makes it feel like a consolation prize rather than a move responsible for shareholders I see a 50%+ upside on $CHYM from $19 minimum and much higher long-term. Management"
X Link 2025-11-06T13:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AFRM earnings day 👀 This is an extremely exciting name and widely misunderstood. By far my highest confidence consumer fintech pick on a 5-10 year basis As I get more active on X I plan on releasing full explainers on $AFRM $CHYM $DAVE $MQ to educate people on these businesses. I can honestly say I don't think even 10% of the market actually understands these companies and that is causing some of the product and valuation misconceptions I am seeing every day"
X Link 2025-11-06T14:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Called the price action on $SEZL. Reference the last paragraph @RentYourStocks @RentYourStocks I think you are actually wrong about $SEZL. They fell from a 15x sales multiple to 7x in an industry where players trade at 3-6x so they were still priced at a premium as a company that grows at 60% YoY maybe deserves. But the things that Sezzle could have missed on would have @RentYourStocks I think you are actually wrong about $SEZL. They fell from a 15x sales multiple to 7x in an industry where players trade at 3-6x so they were still priced at a premium as a company that grows at 60% YoY maybe"
X Link 2025-11-06T15:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Happy to take this one. I think I have the best take even over sell-side for this Q. $CHYM performed almost exactly as expected. Guidance raise could be rounded down to +0%. Management spent 30-40% of the time on call making excuses for why Purchase Volume per Active went down and explaining what OITs were. Regardless of how correct you may be this just sounds like an excuse to an investor. If they wanted to explain something with that much nuance that it requires that much time it should just be in the presentation. There was absolutely nothing exciting on the call. Calling out highest"
X Link 2025-11-06T15:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think this price action has proven that $SEZL's massive moves afterhours were just short positions covering after not seeing them dramatically fail on losses but remains nothing exciting performance-wise past their initially impressive 60% YoY guide. Their 15x price to sales valuation was just a momentum trader fluke and this is probably roughly where they belong even if the chart screams "this must go up at some point" STILL haven't had time to look in more detail at results but will get there"
X Link 2025-11-06T15:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KevinLMak @FastTradeKing @__paleologo Is Notion your preferred tool for research writing I am having troubles with transposing research across Slack X Discord and Google Sheets due to formatting challenges across platforms"
X Link 2025-11-06T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AFRM down 5% pre-earnings is an insane risk/reward especially after selling all the way down from the Q2'25 earnings pop"
X Link 2025-11-06T15:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I think $SEZL is losing to $AFRM and $KLAR. I disagree that it is difficult to see who is coming out on top within BNPL. I also don't think Sezzle's valuation is low. Sezzle has the best monetization model -- as in how do you eke the most dollars out of your users. However they don't have a comparable product experience (late fees lots of costs). The reason they are able to do this is because they play below the Affirm underwriting box so they capture customers that Affirm turns away. The downside to this is the increased risk when it comes to loss rates. When it comes to the industry as a"
X Link 2025-11-06T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes $SEZL has saved on expenses by not pursuing direct integration with merchants as heavily as $AFRM and $KLAR and opting for their On-Demand model. They stopped reporting "Active Merchants" in Q4 [----] and switched to "Unique Merchants Shopped at by Consumers". Long-term this is a disadvantage because they have a more commoditized / lower moat product. Generally Sezzle is opting for monetizing their customers as much as possible now through subscriptions ($AFRM provides everything for free) and late fees ($AFRM does not charge these) and not doing the investment-heavy strategy of having a"
X Link 2025-11-06T17:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes long-term (5-10+ years) I expect a massive migration from traditional unsecured credit card users who revolve or have ever revolved (paying interest on CC balances destroys the perceived cashback value that attracts users initially to CCs) into BNPL loans and BNPL cards that do not have fees. Consequently I expect this to reduce credit card reward perks significantly further closing the gap between BNPL perceived value props vs. credit cards. After that I expect BNPL "perks" to come into focus more though it is difficult to imagine what structure that will take until the product matures"
X Link 2025-11-06T17:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I can respect this take. I think this ignores that $AFRM is just now inflecting on GAAP profitability at a very significantly larger scale in a dominant position in the best market on the planet. I think it also ignores future monetization opportunities such as subscription at a large scale. I do not believe $SEZL can scale their business model significantly without taking on excess risk (they already have lower quality users) or encroaching into an area where they will ultimately need to execute on that merchant investment that they gave up on long ago. But cant argue with profits ="
X Link 2025-11-06T18:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think the low-income fears in EWA and BNPL are overblown -- not everyone will blow up like the market seems to be thinking every two weeks -- but there will be winners and losers. I'd be lying if I didn't say my thesis is that $AFRM will see the lowest losses and there is potential for being wrong there but that's what I believe Same for $DAVE which I view as the winner in EWA. I think there is more control over underwriting with these newer shorter duration products than longer duration legacy lenders have historically had"
X Link 2025-11-06T20:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I know the market is blood red and that's possibly keeping $MQ down and it's great that it's been up +9% while most fintechs are down 5% but it probably deserves to be up 20% from this performance which smashed guidance and really interesting call signaling confidence and opportunities for the future. Holiday season in Q4 with Cash App $XYZ and BNPL card clients $AFRM $KLAR ramped acceleration in $DASH $UBER $CART on-demand delivery volumes Klarna's flex card expanding from [--] European countries to [--] (yes smaller countries and worse economics but still) could drive outperformance. They've"
X Link 2025-11-06T21:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I do not think $MQ will be acquired but their relationship with $XYZ does limit the universe given many of the potential acquirers in banking technology are also direct competitors of Square. Galileo's acquisition by $SOFI was a clear signal of why a company with a meaningful conflict of interest should not acquire a BaaS platform. You could argue that $MQ is performing well is a direct consequence of meaningful financial partners not wanting to deal with SoFi's banking platform. For example $AXP would never work with $SOFI. $AFRM and $KLAR also were never likely to"
X Link 2025-11-06T21:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Did $XYZ get Dorsey'ed again"
X Link 2025-11-06T21:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AFRM doing a thing and +10% AH before the call. This makes it. flat on the day so far Results seem good. Let's see what commentary Max Levchin has to say. Usually a relatively entertaining earnings call"
X Link 2025-11-06T21:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Confirmation that $AFRM is another one of the consumer lender fintechs that capital providers are adding to and not pulling back from. Winners so far: $AFRM $LC $SOFI Losers so far: $CVNA $UPST What's interesting is the perception of $AFRM being a low-quality BNPL lender that will go through a credit crisis at any moment but the reality is their underwriting is better than most think and can originate for a lower "quality" customer in a way that performs consistently and capital partners want more of not less. The capital partners' continued appetite even in this environment where we are"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"BREAKING FROM $AFRM: No impact on $AFRM delinquencies from government shutdown only a demand slowdown"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Hearing really great discipline on the earnings call on the slow rollout on Affirm Card by $AFRM. Not spending any marketing dollars on it only to existing users deliberately to higher income and slowly moving lower. And even with this discipline still +500k Card users in the quarter. "Want it to be the preferred way of interacting with our product" -- If this actually happens successfully the standard unsecured credit card business will have A LOT of challenges in the future"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@bobspaysubstack @Square Market for $XYZ is probably thinking "If Square is struggling now then what's going to happen when Clover $FI aggressively reduces pricing like the Fiserv CEO said he would prioritize""
X Link 2025-11-06T22:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AFRM: "0% Days (THE BIG NOTHING -- weird branding but okay) was a massive success in proving to merchants that we can drive consumers not only at the bottom of the funnel but also the top""
X Link 2025-11-06T22:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Casual visit from the ex-CEO of $MQ Thanks for visiting my humble [---] follower profile. Trying to provide thoughtful commentary on modern fintech because there is very little 😂 Appreciate the shoutout and insight into some of the strategy of the company @Simonkhalaf Looking forward to what $MQ can continue to do. Thoughtful analysis (won't comment on stock price) but more on strategy. @marqeta head first dive into flexible credentials was not a transactional idea. It is strategic long term vision to support agentic commerce. Flex makes a card a wallet (Debit Debit+ Debit+BNPL Thoughtful"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$AFRM CEO: "WILL ANNOUNCE SOME FUN THINGS AT SOME POINT SOON" Very insightful thank you Mr. CEO"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bobspaysubstack @nachunja Fiserv $FI has ruined us"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Afterpay is so behind and it's such a shame how badly $XYZ fumbled the potential of the Square + Cash App + Afterpay ecosystem Not like it's not going to eventually all be integrated but it feels like each of the verticals is getting more and more competitive and there's not a ton of time left to make this cohesive"
X Link 2025-11-06T23:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$XYZ seems like it did okay but the market is immediately selling off anything that doesn't smash earnings expectations at the moment. Possibly a buying opportunity but $FI's commentary on Clover is legitimately scary for Square which has barely started getting its footing. For those unaware part of the reason (but not all) that Fiserv fell 50% after earnings is the new CEO announced Clover would be cutting its prices deeply to be more competitive and win share in the space reducing revenue growth expectations significantly. $TOST has obviously been kicking ass in the space for a while which"
X Link 2025-11-07T01:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@jbulltard1 I like Lina Khan. Without her I wouldnt have made money shorting $IRBT"
X Link 2025-11-07T03:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Over / under on $AFRM being green vs. red EOD Big scary subprime underwriter ooooh market hates that right now ooooh spooky 👻"
X Link 2025-11-07T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"You guys can clown Jack Dorsey's $70M $XYZ party all you want but I wish I was invited :("
X Link 2025-11-07T20:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Guys $CHYM is 13% better of a company than it was yesterday"
X Link 2025-11-07T20:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MQ shareholders (me) in shambles (crying in the office) -6% while every other fintech bounces after an incredible quarter There is only one solution to cope Fentanyl"
X Link 2025-11-07T20:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Congrats $AFRM shareholders for surviving the 2-day subprime apocalypse after the 1-day regional banking crisis We really stuck together and persevered If you hold $KLAR $SEZL you can't sit with us"
X Link 2025-11-07T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Now that the K-shaped economy has been fixed in the last hours and we no longer fear the shutdown we can buy $BYND meat products again and get fleeced by share dilution to bail out this great American company"
X Link 2025-11-07T20:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Attention $BYND idiots Investigating meat companies for manipulating prices TOO HIGH would LOWER meat prices making them EVEN CHEAPER than your succulent plant flesh this is NOT BULLISH your squishy vegetable patties BREAKING🚨 TRUMP ORDERS DOJ PROBE INTO MEAT INDUSTRY; Regulatory Scrutiny Could Favor Plant-Based Producers Like Beyond Meat $BYND BULLISH FOR PLANT-BASED MEAT COMPANIES https://t.co/xc6PFNLllE BREAKING🚨 TRUMP ORDERS DOJ PROBE INTO MEAT INDUSTRY; Regulatory Scrutiny Could Favor Plant-Based Producers Like Beyond Meat $BYND BULLISH FOR PLANT-BASED MEAT COMPANIES"
X Link 2025-11-07T21:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@cleanjordanz He's not made up because the Korean retail degenerates are very real and you can see their message boards But yes pour one out $BYND"
X Link 2025-11-07T22:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Hello $OPEN people What in the world is high-volume housing acquisition Do you know what houses are"
X Link 2025-11-07T23:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@APompliano Bro $OPEN flips homes for profit (allegedly) they dont feed orphans and shit rainbows. Stop talking like this its weird"
X Link 2025-11-07T23:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I mean its less about the hypothetical (I dont care about the quote really) and about continuing to prove that the company does not really prioritize being a good steward of capital. This is extremely important in a competitive space and $XYZ is competing on [--] fronts that are super innovation-heavy today. Im generally optimistic for $XYZ too and am contemplating entering a position always but its just hard to put your trust into this crap that randomly happens every couple quarters and 20% of calls being dedicated to Bitcoin which has not generated anything useful for the shareholder in"
X Link 2025-11-08T17:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fair enough take. Yeah the irony is underinvesting and taking shortcuts to appear more profitable in the near-term is that you may find you are forced to do that investment anyways which $XYZ acknowledged in a sobering earnings call in Q1'25. I also make the case that $SEZL is doing this in the BNPL space in competition with $AFRM and $KLAR (the Sezzle bulls don't like hearing this). Once you decide to invest your margins compress (one-time or not I actually do not agree fully with adjusting out the "one-time" expenses) and everyone hates you anyways and morale drops. Morale is also a fickle"
X Link 2025-11-08T18:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Dont forget $CHYM $DAVE saying the low-income consumer has stable spend income merchant mix not losing their jobs much more than they already were I am going to release articles on these names and low-income fintech in general to help people understand better I am seeing a lot of investors (middle-to-high income) talk about low-income like they know anything but they dont"
X Link 2025-11-08T19:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@siyul The @jbulltard1 era of smaller-burrito $CMG could work If they add nachos with their extremely nacho-suited kitchen and assembly line I'm all in on margin"
X Link 2025-11-10T04:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@capybaraReborn I hope you at least kind of feel bad for all the people that rode this down from $4. You were pushing false info for quite a while on $BYND"
X Link 2025-11-10T04:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@buccocapital Good take. $CHYM $DAVE commentary was similar. Lower income consumer isnt spending less theyre just spending somewhere else"
X Link 2025-11-10T08:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@downstrum @torovictorioso Affirm $AFRM is just inflecting on GAAP profitability as of recent quarters so will need to wait for normalization before using it as a comparable metric"
X Link 2025-11-10T14:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Looks like $PGY is out of the $UPST doghouse now that theyve had their earnings Long-term Im not convinced which will be a winner but I have been invested in small allocation in $PGY since $12 on a multiple re-rating thesis for over a year. Ive been trimming pretty much every time it grows to exceed 3% but honestly its done that a few times already lol"
X Link 2025-11-10T14:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KevinLMaks $PGY has been pretty good. They had a good earnings and showed the market that not every comparable player executes in the same way even if they want to believe the sky is falling in private credit (it isnt). $PGY Quarter was great basically every financial metric is moving in the right direction. FLRPC is now at 5% which is great to see. Costs/expenses are under control margins expanding. Extra disclosure regarding their write downs so investors can get a better feel for how that $PGY Quarter was great basically every financial metric is moving in the right direction. FLRPC is"
X Link 2025-11-10T14:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Indeed. I am a skeptic since I also work at a fintech that needs to do new underwriting and understand how hard that is. There is a fine line in being forthcoming about exactly what the model is doing right and wrong and just scaring investors because the entire company is the model"
X Link 2025-11-10T14:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Analytica_X @WrightWhit44154 @StockSavvyShay Completely wrong take. This is universes away from anything that $UPST and $AFRM do. And as someone who bought and sold alternative managers in a past life Im not convinced retail needs broad access to alternative investment strategies"
X Link 2025-11-10T14:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@varietypunch359 @capybaraReborn Yes and he claimed that the company 5xing the shares outstanding wouldn't impact the thesis and it did. It caused the entire drop"
X Link 2025-11-10T15:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jevgenijs This is an opportunity for $MQ and to a lesser extent Galileo $SOFI. Companies do not migrate banking cores often and the potential disruption caused by this could be a catalyst for experimentation for legacy banks to move from Fiserv $FI to a more modern core"
X Link 2025-11-10T15:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CarioCapital Is it bullish actually for $FOUR Do you just mean fintech in general lol"
X Link 2025-11-10T15:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm optimistic that the market can melt up while the air is let out from the degen retail stuff. Price action today post-shutdown seems positive with actual companies going up and retail momo trash going down $IONQ $BYND with the Mike Alfred pump stocks $OPEN $ASST seeming to be the new flavor of the month. I still maintain that Mag [--] looks cheap on an earnings basis relative to their demonstrated growth and I know how much people hate the concentration of the S&P [---]. I'd bet it's going to get more concentrated but staying bearish just because of that would be a mistake"
X Link 2025-11-10T18:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@0xMerridew You seem to only be able to do sports and large macro events (Fed JPow) in size on Kalshi"
X Link 2025-11-10T18:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Dang $SOFI is +8% of a better company than it was on Friday Still thinking about going long"
X Link 2025-11-10T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RGTI is down after earnings. I guess results must have come as a surprise to shareholders. As it turns out when the company doesn't make money and the CEO publicly says he doesn't think the company will make money maybe -- wait for it. MAYBE THAT COMPANY WON'T MAKE MONEY"
X Link 2025-11-10T21:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Being long $BYND is a mental illness at this point Earnings was horrible btw All exactly as expected. Tomorrow well likely see another 20% panic flush - and then a full reversal with a skyrocketing move after the earnings call. Watch it. 🚀 $BYND https://t.co/FUMIf6DKOn All exactly as expected. Tomorrow well likely see another 20% panic flush - and then a full reversal with a skyrocketing move after the earnings call. Watch it. 🚀 $BYND https://t.co/FUMIf6DKOn"
X Link 2025-11-11T00:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bennpeifert Lina Khan was trained from a young age to deprive America of the Roomba. Some people (Democrats) are playing it off and pretending everythings fine but we will not be silenced This goes MUCH deeper than it looks"
X Link 2025-11-11T14:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$XYZ really put their entire team on spamming Twitter with updates. Actually dont hate it since its not mindless pumping (looking at the $OPEN clown show)"
X Link 2025-11-11T15:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I am saying your merit and logic (random internet guy who reads news articles) is not equivalent to the merit and logic of the AI researchers at Google and OpenAI who know the people who were hired personally and professionally and told me what I posted here verbally. If you truly disagree with this you are wrong and potentially an idiot. There is no other alternative. You can choose to believe whatever you want"
X Link 2025-11-11T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So this post on GPU depreciation is generally correct but I want to point out something in the discourse that Ive noticed. Investors debating (or arguing) over these depreciation schedules always illustrate the perverse incentives from the perspective of the public market investor / investor relations team of the company versus the seller of the hardware that pushes things out on a replacement / upgrade cycle. New GPUs come out every [--] months The depreciation schedule should be 2-3 years at best No this is not true and it is flawed logic. GAAP guidance allows for us to say 5/7/X years so"
X Link 2025-11-11T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"NYC FROZE OVER HALAL FOOD IS STILL NOT CHEAP THANKS MAMDANI"
X Link 2025-11-11T18:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@komodo_capital Thanks boss 🫡"
X Link 2025-11-11T21:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"People love to cite early missteps (misleading advertising poor app UX) as reasons that these companies and products shouldnt exist at all. $DAVEs FTC / DOJ situation is infamous for this. But its clear that traditional banks have no intention of servicing this demographic properly or fairly so handing the business back to the banks would be a serious step backwards which is something that Congress tries to avoid (usually)"
X Link 2025-11-11T21:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mindset4Money_X Thank you I see your $DAVE coverage. Ill be releasing my own soon as well"
X Link 2025-11-11T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Heaviest exposure to $DAVE - near-term confidence is very high. Next is $AFRM - I can feel comfortable holding for 5-10 years without seriously considering selling given my conviction in what the future looks like $MQ - High conviction turnaround is now or within a few quarters. This is reaching escape velocity soon IMO $CHYM - Small exposure doing more research $KLAR - Considering earnings play given AFRM strength but not the winner in BNPL I would pick https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988391319396642980 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988391319396642980"
X Link 2025-11-11T23:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@AlohaOasis Just to be clear I do think $CHYM is on sale right now. It is absurdly cheap for the quality of the company. I just want to do a deep dive before thinking about target prices and such"
X Link 2025-11-12T00:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I do think $AFRM is best-in-class and a pretty straightforward long-term hold (5-10 years) as they have a lot of market share to take vs. traditional unsecured credit cards as well as greenfield demand from merchants. Not shady no late fees reports to credit bureaus a lot of risk discipline in what it takes to remain on the good side of capital partners takes the lead in innovating in the BNPL space -- all good things. I wrote an article here for "unsavory consumer fintechs" as I know you have that view. I'd like for you to read it if you have time because I think traditional bank investors"
X Link 2025-11-12T01:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Glad you found it helpful Stay tuned for $CHYM coverage I want to release some stuff over the next weeks. $AFRM's cost of capital is higher than banks because they don't fund through deposits but rather warehouse lines and the securitization / forward flow market. However cost of capital is not the only input for offers -- it's risk-adjusted underwriting. Affirm is the best at this from a BNPL perspective and it's also evident from their offerings (profitably underwriting interest-bearing loans and providing better offers to customers and better results for merchants). There's also an"
X Link 2025-11-12T03:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ericjackson Eric Jackson's now covering $DAVE. I wrote an X article today to help you understand Dave's business a bit here if anyone is interested: https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988239810847285500s=20 https://t.co/7vNTehMWa4 https://x.com/BarnieTaintpipe/status/1988239810847285500s=20 https://t.co/7vNTehMWa4"
X Link 2025-11-12T05:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Okay tbh I could do with a lot less Bitcoin pumping. I get that theyre focused on it but broadly institutional investors view it as a negative. Normally wouldnt be that bad but clearly people have hated it over the last 2-3 years and view it as supplemental to the $XYZ business not core. The nature of what theyre announcing still makes me believe there will be minimal uplift to the business from BTC. This is a supply-side solution for BTC payments but it lacks the demand. If you build it they will not come"
X Link 2025-11-12T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking at $SEZL Q3'25 earnings results and honestly don't understand how Sezzle bulls see this as a good quarter and have been crying wolf for the last week. If you ONLY look at total revenues and GMV then you could fool yourself. but this is horrendous IMO. Deeper analysis to come but it really looks like they are shitting the bed and my concerns on their short-term approach on monetizing all of their customers ASAP NOW without providing value that's worth the cost is proving 100% true"
X Link 2025-11-12T15:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$KLAR earnings next week is potentially an opportunity given the overall strength in BNPL growth we've seen across every major fintech company that talks about it. $AFRM $SEZL $PYPL $XYZ Their earnings being later than every other player may actually be a source of alpha"
X Link 2025-11-12T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ColinInv Im not a $SEZL short but frankly this quarter makes me wonder if I should be. Also have you looked at the SEZL chart What in the world about it makes you think shorts would be concerned"
X Link 2025-11-12T18:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Not with late fees increasing 40% QoQ and provisions for credit losses increasing 56% QoQ. GMV only increased 13% in the same period. Average loan tenor is [--] days so this likely means significant degradation in the quality of their underwriting (and therefore revenue) started happening last quarter and is rolling into this one. The earnings growth is mostly low quality late fees and increasing subscription pricing without increasing value provided. This makes a difference and nominal earnings growth is not the whole story ESPECIALLY with a lender. You can obviously invest that way if you"
X Link 2025-11-12T18:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Alexand92792198 I think they could be. Pretty much depends on their growth progress on interest-bearing loans in the U.S"
X Link 2025-11-12T18:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"You can definitely compare $AFRM to $SEZL on its merits. $KLAR as well. However Affirm and Klarna are built for scalability and moat via focusing on direct merchant integrations while Sezzle is built for profits at a smaller scale and a much less creditworthy customer base. I have never professed to comparing the above stocks to $PYPL (small % of business and different BNPL model) and $XYZ (too hard to break out Afterpay but to be clear Afterpay has the same direct merchant integration model). I will post my thesis on why I don't think $SEZL is a good bet relative to other BNPLs after the"
X Link 2025-11-12T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Macro guys keep complaining about $MSFT $AMZN $META & $GOOGL pouring billions into GPUs & yelling bubble because humans are terrible at recognizing exponential change while its happening. What looks like reckless CapEx is just hyperscalers buying future margin. These Macro guys keep complaining about $MSFT $AMZN $META & $GOOGL pouring billions into GPUs & yelling bubble because humans are terrible at recognizing exponential change while its happening. What looks like reckless CapEx is just hyperscalers buying future margin. These"
X Link 2025-11-12T21:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I am not saying it is DEFINITELY the best strategy. But I am saying it definitely is a good strategy and I will take the position that it certainly creates a moat. [--] years down the line a merchant who is integrated with both Affirm and Klarna (a common setup today in the early innings) with great volumes conversion and service is much less likely to stick their neck out to try out another BNPL provider especially if their customer base is not differentiated. These partnerships are not necessarily exclusive but they are pseudo-exclusive in a way. It certainly seems like integration and"
X Link 2025-11-12T21:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DeepDishEnjoyer Theoretically cheap on an earnings basis even ex-China. If there's anything that can keep hopium on for longer it's the actual inputs But you never know maybe Jensen will get back to signing some bazongas"
X Link 2025-11-12T21:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes I am operating under the assumption that there will be no contractual exclusivity for these merchant relationships. BNPLs will compete on the merits of their offering ie. reach of customer and conversion lift of offers. I also agree with $AFRM's decision in the excerpt that you snipped. This is a smart capital decision and they didn't commit the error of falling in love with a brand name. This was likely Klarna making a bad decision in order to grow their U.S. footprint which was behind. Walmart ALWAYS fleeces their fintech partners on deals. I remember that day pretty well -- I was the"
X Link 2025-11-12T23:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Im gonna backpedal my hyperbolic horrendous claim from this morning a little bit. I spent a lot of time looking at Sezzles Q3 today and think there are a ton of things that look really bad optically that management does a poor job of explaining or makes no real effort to. Someone without a deep understanding of the stock would never catch this and simply short based on the income statement and KPIs: Late fees provision for credit loss as % of GMV transactional expenses increasing questionable EBITDA and ANI addbacks. There are explanations for these things that require a bit of belief to see"
X Link 2025-11-13T00:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Slightly Optimistic with Extreme Caution - Sezzle Q3'25 Earnings Summary This took a lot more time than I expected but I wanted to do my negative view justice. I dont clickbait Im not a tunnel visioned shorter I am a subject matter expert in consumer fintech and have http://x.com/i/article/1988784640090394624 http://x.com/i/article/1988784640090394624"
X Link 2025-11-13T03:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"My long take on $SEZL Q3'25 earnings. For anyone wondering why this stock cratered from $180 to $60 with a 20% short interest while seemingly performing well at a surface level this is for you. https://t.co/ze0MTynyqh https://t.co/ze0MTynyqh"
X Link 2025-11-13T03:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Lucky you I will be writing up a $DAVE report next It is my most closely followed stock and I think its actually a very simple business and an hoping to get more investors eyeballs on it over the next year or two. I run this type of business in my day job so I know quite a lot about it. My price target is $320 in 2026E. Stay tuned"
X Link 2025-11-13T14:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Biased I would accept. Very biased is not correct IMO. I am presenting these views as a typical investor who does not spend a full day trying to figure out why all the bad trends may not be bad. I know why they are not as bad as they look and have presented those reasons too. That is not bias. If you are talking about my preference for $AFRM over $SEZL these are not sports teams. I am more comfortable with the risks and more optimistic about the products for the former and not the latter therefore I invested in one over the other. I am bullish BNPL broadly and wouldnt mind owning $AFRM $KLAR"
X Link 2025-11-13T14:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I will say that the history seems to indicate that their direction with Sezzle Anywhere appeared to not really be a choice. Their active merchants were declining every quarter for many quarters. I think they were forced to not play the AFRM KLAR Afterpay game. That being said companies chart their own path. It's entirely possible that the focused direct merchant integration path turns out to not be the best option in the future or SEZL finds a way around it (which it has for now at a smaller scale)"
X Link 2025-11-13T16:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$DAVE opportunity here. This thing has a beta of like [--] and pretty low volume so it moves like this regularly for better or for worse. If I were a swing trader or daytrader I would LOVE this stock"
X Link 2025-11-13T16:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@AlohaOasis I sold $20 strike puts expiring Jan [----] for a 50% yield (43% annualized yield) today. Breakeven of $10.31 which would be a crazy price for $CHYM to hit at a 1.3x EV to sales multiple for Q325 annualized revenue (and company is growing)"
X Link 2025-11-13T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TMTLongShort @rev_cap Way too rational of a take. Delete your account"
X Link 2025-11-14T02:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It's because $PYPL has disappointed everyone in the market for almost [--] years straight and people are tired of looking at until there is undeniable proof of a turnaround. We just saw quarter [--] of said turnaround so it will need time and continued execution. The CEO himself cautioned against optimism on the Q3'25 earnings call saying it would take another year"
X Link 2025-11-14T20:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Nonsense take. Looking only at revenue growth % is for kindergarteners. They broke promises to investors to offload loans from balance sheet faster and they indicated that their AI model was literally stopping their revenue growth. For an AI model-centric loan selling company that's obviously concerning to investors. $UPST along with $CVNA was one of the losers in capital partners broadly pulling back from "lower quality" originators. On the other side of that were $LC $SOFI $AFRM $PGY"
X Link 2025-11-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheShortBear $DAVE $AFRM look light. Moved significantly down on broader market weakness after great Q3 earnings calls. Will be writing up $DAVE myself this weekend"
X Link 2025-11-14T21:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@kakashiii111 Imagine thinking $CRWV is a hyperscaler business. My god what is wrong with you people"
X Link 2025-11-14T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Visa and Mastercard are perpetually "will go up" bets. The question is how much and the answer for some time has been typically slightly above the rate of spend increase plus whatever premium the market is willing to bid them up because they are safe bets. This isn't a hot take"
X Link 2025-11-15T01:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I've talked about like [--] stocks total in my [--] active weeks on Twitter so I have literally no idea how you got to that conclusion that my portfolio is no good. My biggest position is also $DAVE and I've been long on and off since like $30 so you're being weirdly aggressive for someone whose 25% of A-tier stocks I literally have had up to a 40% weight in my portfolio in the last [--] years. Stocks are not sports teams and just because I'm not bullish your SECOND favorite stock means you think you can be a dick My $DAVE report comes out next. If you are rude for no reason one more I will block you"
X Link 2025-11-15T01:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Been busy so just getting to this re $SEZL. I think on MODS and the push-and-pull between On-demand and Subscribers. Don't overthink it the CEO told you exactly what was happening. They are experimenting with the conversions and LTVs in real-time this was not tested (or testable) for every scenario broadly before initially rolling the feature out. This is a normal thing to happen at a company and the unfortunate thing is it is management's stated highest priority and it is not going exactly as planned in the public eye. I don't have a huge problem with it but it is just more uncertainty. More"
X Link 2025-11-15T02:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@nachunja @Mantra02153307 @BlockIR If Satoshi Dorsey used some of his BTC to buy $XYZ then wowza the stock would 🚀🚀🚀"
X Link 2025-11-15T02:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@onetimeitsmine Yes famously known for their credit cards What even is this nonsense take $XYZ"
X Link 2025-11-15T14:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think his point on not over-investing in a single generation of anything is smart. They seem "behind" because everyone wants to fulfill demand now but future data centers are only going to get more efficient. A patient player only loses if the demand is truly time-sensitive and goes away. None of the big guys have shown any sign of believing demand will decrease in the next 2-3 years"
X Link 2025-11-15T15:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@5STARS0UL @PaulTompkinsRE @j0hnwang how else do you think the investment bank prices offerings Do you think they just throw darts until institutional investors call them up to buy"
X Link 2025-11-15T22:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Low volume little institutional research coverage high volatility. $DAVE is essentially a playground for traders with fundamental buyers typically being support when it goes under $200. It is currently trading at 11x annualized Q325 P/E and under 10x 2026E P/E for a company growing 30% YoY with extremely high cash flow conversion (will get even higher after full migration to Coastal banking partner)"
X Link 2025-11-17T18:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Cool X is back. Other than $NET collapsing because of this morning's technical issues there was another one: $KLAR results were okay. They beat expectations on GMV but growth in U.S. Fair Financing (which I said since their S-1 is mandatory for them to focus on growing) has led to compressed transaction margins given the provisioning required to start up a larger longer-duration loan portfolio. I think the CEO did a good job in the beginning explaining why the future of consumer credit is BNPL and will replace credit card usage as we know it. The market probably will still remain ignorant to"
X Link 2025-11-18T14:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@WagieCapital Same here for fintech coverage overall. A lot of high quality companies out with the bathwater. $DAVE is under 10x forward P/E immensely profitable and growing 30% YoY"
X Link 2025-11-18T14:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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