[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@paulnovosad](/creator/twitter/paulnovosad) "Incredible case of unintended consequences if true: guaranteed insurance meant you could insure properties for way more than their worth and then let them burn down. 3/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948409975727964359) 2025-07-24 15:48:32 UTC 23.1K followers, 1201 engagements "Paper is a triple-difference design comparing: - pre/post FAIR implementation - Neighborhoods with/without likely FAIR access - Participating / non-participating states Seems reasonable. 5/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948411034504429702) 2025-07-24 15:52:45 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements "This is interesting: contractionary monetary policy RAISES rents. Not what you would expect we normally contract the money supply to curb inflation. But higher interest rates makes homes more expensive and more people become renters -- rents go up"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948359029127807374) 2025-07-24 12:26:05 UTC 23.1K followers, 26.7K engagements "These were declining neighborhoods already (which is why their insured value was market value). Mandating generous insurance for these properties accelerated their decline by making the insurance payout way more valuable thatn staying and making it work. 7/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948412927960056297) 2025-07-24 16:00:16 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements "There is *so much* variation even across Europe on which immigrants come in and how their children do. Figure (Boustan et al) shows rank gap vs. native-born for immigrants and their children. One of the richest graphs around. What is going on here 1/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206115668144136) 2025-07-18 13:51:11 UTC 23.1K followers, 43K engagements "The authors say that sending country doesn't explain much of the variation we see here that there's high upward mobility in Canada and low in Austria whether you come from Morocco Yugoslavia or Turkey. But it feels like something you'd want to hold constant throughout. 6/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206126208323914) 2025-07-18 13:51:13 UTC 23K followers, 1268 engagements "I hope there is a big data release when this paper gets published (or sooner) as it seems like a lot more to study here. Paper is Boustan et al. 2025 link here List of authors: /N"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206132189401389) 2025-07-18 13:51:15 UTC 23K followers, 1576 engagements "Interesting highly relevant. What happens when states force home insurers to do things that aren't in their interest (like premium caps prohibitions of underwriting conditions) etc. Hartley et al: effects of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements in the 1960s. 1/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948408685010567227) 2025-07-24 15:43:24 UTC 23.1K followers, 4802 engagements "We spend a lot of money on rapid re-housing but there's not a lot of reliable evidence on long-term effects. This study: already-homeless people in Santa Clara CA We're just seeing early results here. 5/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948778115062276279) 2025-07-25 16:11:23 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements "Results are 🔥🔥 FAIR-insured census tracts lost hundreds of housing units between 196080 or *about XXXX% the 1950 stock*. This should be the textbook case for moral hazard the aggregate losses here are incredible not to mention effects on neighborhoods. 6/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948412563043086756) 2025-07-24 15:58:49 UTC 23.1K followers, 1260 engagements "The problem: it was hard to get home insurance in some neighborhoods esp poor black. The usual "we have a hammer" solution: FAIR plans banned insurers from using property information and risks to set premia. What could go wrong And we know better now right 2/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948409468594671789) 2025-07-24 15:46:31 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements "@varma_ashwin97 Interesting But is the knowledge frontier in biology not advancing by leaps and bounds This is my impression but I'm not a biologist My prior is low $/NME b/c products lag tech discoveries by 1020 years plus higher regulatory barriers to getting things to market"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946191862919831578) 2025-07-18 12:54:33 UTC 23K followers, XXX engagements "If the problem is just "the rent is too high" then this program won't be particularly effective in the long term with current budgets we can't permanently buy people out of homelessness. 4/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948777783330570405) 2025-07-25 16:10:04 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements "The most essential stabilizing feature of a society is a status hierarchy that young peopleespecially young mencan reliably climb by following a clear and pro-social set of rules. 1/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1947679736609837171) 2025-07-22 15:26:50 UTC 23.1K followers, 234.4K engagements "@KolemanStrumpf While I agree that open data is the most credible it seems excessively risk averse to me to say "we can't know anything until the data is public.""  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948886118717685864) 2025-07-25 23:20:33 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements "Cash transfers are not having the effects that the advocates said they would have"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1947309546759741617) 2025-07-21 14:55:49 UTC 23.1K followers, 39.7K engagements "@5hyamg @RenaudFoucart It might surprise you but Dartmouth does not evaluate or vet my Twitter takes. Though it might be useful to ask "is this Dartmouth econ professor a complete idiot or is it possible I didn't read what he wrote correctly""  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948829391275880555) 2025-07-25 19:35:09 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements "It seems hard to separate place effects from selection effects if Austria is very bad for immigrants then even after controlling for education it's probably the case that the set of high-education immigrants choosing Austria is different from those choosing Canada. 7/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206128699846907) 2025-07-18 13:51:14 UTC 23.1K followers, 1108 engagements "Meme #2 (low return to hard work) is mostly wrong. But most true for the humanities classjournalists writers meme-makers. Their industry was most disrupted by the tech revolution and will be again by AI. And they've convinced too many people that its true for everyone. 6/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1947679745488916787) 2025-07-22 15:26:52 UTC 23K followers, 14.4K engagements "FAIR plans were implemented in XX states: - prohibited use of environmental and neighborhood factors in underwriting () - Mandary insurer partiicpation - Payout requirements which were well above market values in declining neighborhoods 4/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948410231278403597) 2025-07-24 15:49:33 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements "@KolemanStrumpf The Boston/Chicago comparison is quite consistent: XX minute difference before 5-6 after. Exactly the XX% in the paper above. The style of the graph just makes it hard to see"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948886434204844420) 2025-07-25 23:21:49 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@paulnovosad
"Incredible case of unintended consequences if true: guaranteed insurance meant you could insure properties for way more than their worth and then let them burn down. 3/"
@paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:48:32 UTC 23.1K followers, 1201 engagements
"Paper is a triple-difference design comparing: - pre/post FAIR implementation - Neighborhoods with/without likely FAIR access - Participating / non-participating states Seems reasonable. 5/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:52:45 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements
"This is interesting: contractionary monetary policy RAISES rents. Not what you would expect we normally contract the money supply to curb inflation. But higher interest rates makes homes more expensive and more people become renters -- rents go up" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 12:26:05 UTC 23.1K followers, 26.7K engagements
"These were declining neighborhoods already (which is why their insured value was market value). Mandating generous insurance for these properties accelerated their decline by making the insurance payout way more valuable thatn staying and making it work. 7/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 16:00:16 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements
"There is so much variation even across Europe on which immigrants come in and how their children do. Figure (Boustan et al) shows rank gap vs. native-born for immigrants and their children. One of the richest graphs around. What is going on here 1/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:11 UTC 23.1K followers, 43K engagements
"The authors say that sending country doesn't explain much of the variation we see here that there's high upward mobility in Canada and low in Austria whether you come from Morocco Yugoslavia or Turkey. But it feels like something you'd want to hold constant throughout. 6/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:13 UTC 23K followers, 1268 engagements
"I hope there is a big data release when this paper gets published (or sooner) as it seems like a lot more to study here. Paper is Boustan et al. 2025 link here List of authors: /N" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:15 UTC 23K followers, 1576 engagements
"Interesting highly relevant. What happens when states force home insurers to do things that aren't in their interest (like premium caps prohibitions of underwriting conditions) etc. Hartley et al: effects of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements in the 1960s. 1/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:43:24 UTC 23.1K followers, 4802 engagements
"We spend a lot of money on rapid re-housing but there's not a lot of reliable evidence on long-term effects. This study: already-homeless people in Santa Clara CA We're just seeing early results here. 5/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-25 16:11:23 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements
"Results are 🔥🔥 FAIR-insured census tracts lost hundreds of housing units between 196080 or about XXXX% the 1950 stock. This should be the textbook case for moral hazard the aggregate losses here are incredible not to mention effects on neighborhoods. 6/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:58:49 UTC 23.1K followers, 1260 engagements
"The problem: it was hard to get home insurance in some neighborhoods esp poor black. The usual "we have a hammer" solution: FAIR plans banned insurers from using property information and risks to set premia. What could go wrong And we know better now right 2/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:46:31 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@varma_ashwin97 Interesting But is the knowledge frontier in biology not advancing by leaps and bounds This is my impression but I'm not a biologist My prior is low $/NME b/c products lag tech discoveries by 1020 years plus higher regulatory barriers to getting things to market" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 12:54:33 UTC 23K followers, XXX engagements
"If the problem is just "the rent is too high" then this program won't be particularly effective in the long term with current budgets we can't permanently buy people out of homelessness. 4/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-25 16:10:04 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements
"The most essential stabilizing feature of a society is a status hierarchy that young peopleespecially young mencan reliably climb by following a clear and pro-social set of rules. 1/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-22 15:26:50 UTC 23.1K followers, 234.4K engagements
"@KolemanStrumpf While I agree that open data is the most credible it seems excessively risk averse to me to say "we can't know anything until the data is public."" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-25 23:20:33 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements
"Cash transfers are not having the effects that the advocates said they would have" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-21 14:55:49 UTC 23.1K followers, 39.7K engagements
"@5hyamg @RenaudFoucart It might surprise you but Dartmouth does not evaluate or vet my Twitter takes. Though it might be useful to ask "is this Dartmouth econ professor a complete idiot or is it possible I didn't read what he wrote correctly"" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-25 19:35:09 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements
"It seems hard to separate place effects from selection effects if Austria is very bad for immigrants then even after controlling for education it's probably the case that the set of high-education immigrants choosing Austria is different from those choosing Canada. 7/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:14 UTC 23.1K followers, 1108 engagements
"Meme #2 (low return to hard work) is mostly wrong. But most true for the humanities classjournalists writers meme-makers. Their industry was most disrupted by the tech revolution and will be again by AI. And they've convinced too many people that its true for everyone. 6/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-22 15:26:52 UTC 23K followers, 14.4K engagements
"FAIR plans were implemented in XX states: - prohibited use of environmental and neighborhood factors in underwriting () - Mandary insurer partiicpation - Payout requirements which were well above market values in declining neighborhoods 4/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:49:33 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@KolemanStrumpf The Boston/Chicago comparison is quite consistent: XX minute difference before 5-6 after. Exactly the XX% in the paper above. The style of the graph just makes it hard to see" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-25 23:21:49 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements