[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@paulnovosad](/creator/twitter/paulnovosad) "@soumitrashukla9 Ok fair I do believe the DOGE people were excited going in"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1945893220895899708) 2025-07-17 17:07:51 UTC 22.7K followers, XXX engagements "@alz_zyd_ If you read a book and then talk with ChatGPT you will get more knowledge and more useful brain exercise than if you just skip to talking with ChatGPT. You might at first feel like you learned just as much though"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1945888740188082184) 2025-07-17 16:50:03 UTC 22.7K followers, XX engagements "@bugfush @3RenChengHu The initial claim is that genetic factors are highly mean-reverting. You raised assortative mating to rebut that claim. If it's not on genes it doesn't address the claim"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1945119814327943574) 2025-07-15 13:54:36 UTC 22.7K followers, XX engagements "There is *so much* variation even across Europe on which immigrants come in and how their children do. Figure (Boustan et al) shows rank gap vs. native-born for immigrants and their children. One of the richest graphs around. What is going on here 1/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206115668144136) 2025-07-18 13:51:11 UTC 22.7K followers, 42.4K engagements "Why are immigrant kids so downwardly mobile in Austria HollandDaughters of immigrants converge to the mean in one generation sons stay very poor. Why Highest mobility engines are France and Sweden. Immigrants do well in UK and USA but arrive with more skills too. 2/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206118172045526) 2025-07-18 13:51:11 UTC 22.7K followers, 1857 engagements "So I'm not yet convinced these are causal effects of place. But the descriptive results are super interesting and the starting point for asking why selection and outcomes are so different across places. 8/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206130478174369) 2025-07-18 13:51:14 UTC 22.7K followers, 1485 engagements "The authors say that sending country doesn't explain much of the variation we see here that there's high upward mobility in Canada and low in Austria whether you come from Morocco Yugoslavia or Turkey. But it feels like something you'd want to hold constant throughout. 6/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206126208323914) 2025-07-18 13:51:13 UTC 22.7K followers, 1217 engagements "I hope there is a big data release when this paper gets published (or sooner) as it seems like a lot more to study here. Paper is Boustan et al. 2025 link here List of authors: /N"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206132189401389) 2025-07-18 13:51:15 UTC 22.7K followers, 1505 engagements "In Spain Italy and Canada even the first-gen immigrants have higher income than the mean. Is this opportunity and mobility or is it selection I wish we could see the full time path not just a cut of each generation. (We observe parents in 1994 children in 2014). 3/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206120294387998) 2025-07-18 13:51:12 UTC 22.7K followers, 1590 engagements "@alexolegimas In fairness they study chips agriculture and life expectancy and there's a clear bit explaining this limitation and why it's there. They also address your question "what if it's all in new industries" but of course that can't be done as cleanly as the single sector"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946193012536627257) 2025-07-18 12:59:07 UTC 22.7K followers, XXX engagements "@alz_zyd_ I'm not totally convinced by the schtick either. I think you probably learn something best when you struggle with it then get it clarified in more reading or classroom discussion. Jump straight to the summary it feels like you get it but it is less a part of you"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1945887982851956834) 2025-07-17 16:47:02 UTC 22.7K followers, XXX engagements "I remain unpersuaded that ideas are harder to find because we should not expect spending on research to have constant marginal returns. As semiconductor R&D grows firms are hiring worse and worse researchers to fill marginal slots. As chips are less on the cutting edge top researchers look elsewhere. In the economy as a whole many people employed in R&D are optimizing ad revenue or doing stupid things with no value at all. If we want to get more successful research it's possible we should care more about easing the constraints of the top scientists and less about getting more and more"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946181487583461800) 2025-07-18 12:13:19 UTC 22.7K followers, 18.9K engagements "@varma_ashwin97 Interesting But is the knowledge frontier in biology not advancing by leaps and bounds This is my impression but I'm not a biologist My prior is low $/NME b/c products lag tech discoveries by 1020 years plus higher regulatory barriers to getting things to market"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946191862919831578) 2025-07-18 12:54:33 UTC 22.7K followers, XXX engagements "I would be curious to see it broken down by sending region. It seems relevant for policy immigrants from Western Europe Eastern Europe and LMICs feel like important different categories to me. 5/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206124203549096) 2025-07-18 13:51:13 UTC 22.7K followers, 1402 engagements "Big differences in who is immigrating in some countries they match the native-born distribution. In Aus France Norway Denmark Holland Sweden they are much poorer. 4/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206121980506547) 2025-07-18 13:51:12 UTC 22.7K followers, 1505 engagements "It seems hard to separate place effects from selection effects if Austria is very bad for immigrants then even after controlling for education it's probably the case that the set of high-education immigrants choosing Austria is different from those choosing Canada. 7/"  [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206128699846907) 2025-07-18 13:51:14 UTC 22.7K followers, 1063 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@paulnovosad
"@soumitrashukla9 Ok fair I do believe the DOGE people were excited going in"
@paulnovosad on X 2025-07-17 17:07:51 UTC 22.7K followers, XXX engagements
"@alz_zyd_ If you read a book and then talk with ChatGPT you will get more knowledge and more useful brain exercise than if you just skip to talking with ChatGPT. You might at first feel like you learned just as much though" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-17 16:50:03 UTC 22.7K followers, XX engagements
"@bugfush @3RenChengHu The initial claim is that genetic factors are highly mean-reverting. You raised assortative mating to rebut that claim. If it's not on genes it doesn't address the claim" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-15 13:54:36 UTC 22.7K followers, XX engagements
"There is so much variation even across Europe on which immigrants come in and how their children do. Figure (Boustan et al) shows rank gap vs. native-born for immigrants and their children. One of the richest graphs around. What is going on here 1/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:11 UTC 22.7K followers, 42.4K engagements
"Why are immigrant kids so downwardly mobile in Austria HollandDaughters of immigrants converge to the mean in one generation sons stay very poor. Why Highest mobility engines are France and Sweden. Immigrants do well in UK and USA but arrive with more skills too. 2/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:11 UTC 22.7K followers, 1857 engagements
"So I'm not yet convinced these are causal effects of place. But the descriptive results are super interesting and the starting point for asking why selection and outcomes are so different across places. 8/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:14 UTC 22.7K followers, 1485 engagements
"The authors say that sending country doesn't explain much of the variation we see here that there's high upward mobility in Canada and low in Austria whether you come from Morocco Yugoslavia or Turkey. But it feels like something you'd want to hold constant throughout. 6/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:13 UTC 22.7K followers, 1217 engagements
"I hope there is a big data release when this paper gets published (or sooner) as it seems like a lot more to study here. Paper is Boustan et al. 2025 link here List of authors: /N" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:15 UTC 22.7K followers, 1505 engagements
"In Spain Italy and Canada even the first-gen immigrants have higher income than the mean. Is this opportunity and mobility or is it selection I wish we could see the full time path not just a cut of each generation. (We observe parents in 1994 children in 2014). 3/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:12 UTC 22.7K followers, 1590 engagements
"@alexolegimas In fairness they study chips agriculture and life expectancy and there's a clear bit explaining this limitation and why it's there. They also address your question "what if it's all in new industries" but of course that can't be done as cleanly as the single sector" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 12:59:07 UTC 22.7K followers, XXX engagements
"@alz_zyd_ I'm not totally convinced by the schtick either. I think you probably learn something best when you struggle with it then get it clarified in more reading or classroom discussion. Jump straight to the summary it feels like you get it but it is less a part of you" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-17 16:47:02 UTC 22.7K followers, XXX engagements
"I remain unpersuaded that ideas are harder to find because we should not expect spending on research to have constant marginal returns. As semiconductor R&D grows firms are hiring worse and worse researchers to fill marginal slots. As chips are less on the cutting edge top researchers look elsewhere. In the economy as a whole many people employed in R&D are optimizing ad revenue or doing stupid things with no value at all. If we want to get more successful research it's possible we should care more about easing the constraints of the top scientists and less about getting more and more" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 12:13:19 UTC 22.7K followers, 18.9K engagements
"@varma_ashwin97 Interesting But is the knowledge frontier in biology not advancing by leaps and bounds This is my impression but I'm not a biologist My prior is low $/NME b/c products lag tech discoveries by 1020 years plus higher regulatory barriers to getting things to market" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 12:54:33 UTC 22.7K followers, XXX engagements
"I would be curious to see it broken down by sending region. It seems relevant for policy immigrants from Western Europe Eastern Europe and LMICs feel like important different categories to me. 5/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:13 UTC 22.7K followers, 1402 engagements
"Big differences in who is immigrating in some countries they match the native-born distribution. In Aus France Norway Denmark Holland Sweden they are much poorer. 4/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:12 UTC 22.7K followers, 1505 engagements
"It seems hard to separate place effects from selection effects if Austria is very bad for immigrants then even after controlling for education it's probably the case that the set of high-education immigrants choosing Austria is different from those choosing Canada. 7/" @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:14 UTC 22.7K followers, 1063 engagements