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[@paulnovosad](/creator/twitter/paulnovosad)
"Paper is a triple-difference design comparing: - pre/post FAIR implementation - Neighborhoods with/without likely FAIR access - Participating / non-participating states Seems reasonable. 5/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948411034504429702) 2025-07-24 15:52:45 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements


"This is interesting: contractionary monetary policy RAISES rents. Not what you would expect we normally contract the money supply to curb inflation. But higher interest rates makes homes more expensive and more people become renters -- rents go up"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948359029127807374) 2025-07-24 12:26:05 UTC 23.1K followers, 27.4K engagements


"There is *so much* variation even across Europe on which immigrants come in and how their children do. Figure (Boustan et al) shows rank gap vs. native-born for immigrants and their children. One of the richest graphs around. What is going on here 1/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206115668144136) 2025-07-18 13:51:11 UTC 23.1K followers, 43K engagements


"Meme #2 (low return to hard work) is mostly wrong. But most true for the humanities classjournalists writers meme-makers. Their industry was most disrupted by the tech revolution and will be again by AI. And they've convinced too many people that its true for everyone. 6/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1947679745488916787) 2025-07-22 15:26:52 UTC 23K followers, 14.4K engagements


"Incredible case of unintended consequences if true: guaranteed insurance meant you could insure properties for way more than their worth and then let them burn down. 3/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948409975727964359) 2025-07-24 15:48:32 UTC 23.1K followers, 1218 engagements


"We spend a lot of money on rapid re-housing but there's not a lot of reliable evidence on long-term effects. This study: already-homeless people in Santa Clara CA We're just seeing early results here. 5/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948778115062276279) 2025-07-25 16:11:23 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements


"If the problem is just "the rent is too high" then this program won't be particularly effective in the long term with current budgets we can't permanently buy people out of homelessness. 4/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948777783330570405) 2025-07-25 16:10:04 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements


"The most essential stabilizing feature of a society is a status hierarchy that young peopleespecially young mencan reliably climb by following a clear and pro-social set of rules. 1/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1947679736609837171) 2025-07-22 15:26:50 UTC 23.1K followers, 234.7K engagements


"Cash transfers are not having the effects that the advocates said they would have"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1947309546759741617) 2025-07-21 14:55:49 UTC 23.1K followers, 40K engagements


"It seems hard to separate place effects from selection effects if Austria is very bad for immigrants then even after controlling for education it's probably the case that the set of high-education immigrants choosing Austria is different from those choosing Canada. 7/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946206128699846907) 2025-07-18 13:51:14 UTC 23.1K followers, 1108 engagements


"The problem: it was hard to get home insurance in some neighborhoods esp poor black. The usual "we have a hammer" solution: FAIR plans banned insurers from using property information and risks to set premia. What could go wrong And we know better now right 2/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948409468594671789) 2025-07-24 15:46:31 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@5hyamg @RenaudFoucart It might surprise you but Dartmouth does not evaluate or vet my Twitter takes. Though it might be useful to ask "is this Dartmouth econ professor a complete idiot or is it possible I didn't read what he wrote correctly""  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948829391275880555) 2025-07-25 19:35:09 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements


"FAIR plans were implemented in XX states: - prohibited use of environmental and neighborhood factors in underwriting () - Mandary insurer partiicpation - Payout requirements which were well above market values in declining neighborhoods 4/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948410231278403597) 2025-07-24 15:49:33 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements


"These were declining neighborhoods already (which is why their insured value was market value). Mandating generous insurance for these properties accelerated their decline by making the insurance payout way more valuable thatn staying and making it work. 7/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948412927960056297) 2025-07-24 16:00:16 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Interesting highly relevant. What happens when states force home insurers to do things that aren't in their interest (like premium caps prohibitions of underwriting conditions) etc. Hartley et al: effects of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements in the 1960s. 1/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948408685010567227) 2025-07-24 15:43:24 UTC 23.1K followers, 4897 engagements


"Results are 🔥🔥 FAIR-insured census tracts lost hundreds of housing units between 196080 or *about XXXX% the 1950 stock*. This should be the textbook case for moral hazard the aggregate losses here are incredible not to mention effects on neighborhoods. 6/"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948412563043086756) 2025-07-24 15:58:49 UTC 23.1K followers, 1287 engagements


"@varma_ashwin97 Interesting But is the knowledge frontier in biology not advancing by leaps and bounds This is my impression but I'm not a biologist My prior is low $/NME b/c products lag tech discoveries by 1020 years plus higher regulatory barriers to getting things to market"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1946191862919831578) 2025-07-18 12:54:33 UTC 23K followers, XXX engagements


"@KolemanStrumpf While I agree that open data is the most credible it seems excessively risk averse to me to say "we can't know anything until the data is public.""  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948886118717685864) 2025-07-25 23:20:33 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements


"@KolemanStrumpf The Boston/Chicago comparison is quite consistent: XX minute difference before 5-6 after. Exactly the XX% in the paper above. The style of the graph just makes it hard to see"  
![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::470696317.png) [@paulnovosad](/creator/x/paulnovosad) on [X](/post/tweet/1948886434204844420) 2025-07-25 23:21:49 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@paulnovosad "Paper is a triple-difference design comparing: - pre/post FAIR implementation - Neighborhoods with/without likely FAIR access - Participating / non-participating states Seems reasonable. 5/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:52:45 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements

"This is interesting: contractionary monetary policy RAISES rents. Not what you would expect we normally contract the money supply to curb inflation. But higher interest rates makes homes more expensive and more people become renters -- rents go up"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 12:26:05 UTC 23.1K followers, 27.4K engagements

"There is so much variation even across Europe on which immigrants come in and how their children do. Figure (Boustan et al) shows rank gap vs. native-born for immigrants and their children. One of the richest graphs around. What is going on here 1/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:11 UTC 23.1K followers, 43K engagements

"Meme #2 (low return to hard work) is mostly wrong. But most true for the humanities classjournalists writers meme-makers. Their industry was most disrupted by the tech revolution and will be again by AI. And they've convinced too many people that its true for everyone. 6/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-22 15:26:52 UTC 23K followers, 14.4K engagements

"Incredible case of unintended consequences if true: guaranteed insurance meant you could insure properties for way more than their worth and then let them burn down. 3/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:48:32 UTC 23.1K followers, 1218 engagements

"We spend a lot of money on rapid re-housing but there's not a lot of reliable evidence on long-term effects. This study: already-homeless people in Santa Clara CA We're just seeing early results here. 5/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-25 16:11:23 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements

"If the problem is just "the rent is too high" then this program won't be particularly effective in the long term with current budgets we can't permanently buy people out of homelessness. 4/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-25 16:10:04 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements

"The most essential stabilizing feature of a society is a status hierarchy that young peopleespecially young mencan reliably climb by following a clear and pro-social set of rules. 1/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-22 15:26:50 UTC 23.1K followers, 234.7K engagements

"Cash transfers are not having the effects that the advocates said they would have"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-21 14:55:49 UTC 23.1K followers, 40K engagements

"It seems hard to separate place effects from selection effects if Austria is very bad for immigrants then even after controlling for education it's probably the case that the set of high-education immigrants choosing Austria is different from those choosing Canada. 7/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 13:51:14 UTC 23.1K followers, 1108 engagements

"The problem: it was hard to get home insurance in some neighborhoods esp poor black. The usual "we have a hammer" solution: FAIR plans banned insurers from using property information and risks to set premia. What could go wrong And we know better now right 2/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:46:31 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements

"@5hyamg @RenaudFoucart It might surprise you but Dartmouth does not evaluate or vet my Twitter takes. Though it might be useful to ask "is this Dartmouth econ professor a complete idiot or is it possible I didn't read what he wrote correctly""
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-25 19:35:09 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements

"FAIR plans were implemented in XX states: - prohibited use of environmental and neighborhood factors in underwriting () - Mandary insurer partiicpation - Payout requirements which were well above market values in declining neighborhoods 4/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:49:33 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements

"These were declining neighborhoods already (which is why their insured value was market value). Mandating generous insurance for these properties accelerated their decline by making the insurance payout way more valuable thatn staying and making it work. 7/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 16:00:16 UTC 23.1K followers, XXX engagements

"Interesting highly relevant. What happens when states force home insurers to do things that aren't in their interest (like premium caps prohibitions of underwriting conditions) etc. Hartley et al: effects of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements in the 1960s. 1/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:43:24 UTC 23.1K followers, 4897 engagements

"Results are 🔥🔥 FAIR-insured census tracts lost hundreds of housing units between 196080 or about XXXX% the 1950 stock. This should be the textbook case for moral hazard the aggregate losses here are incredible not to mention effects on neighborhoods. 6/"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-24 15:58:49 UTC 23.1K followers, 1287 engagements

"@varma_ashwin97 Interesting But is the knowledge frontier in biology not advancing by leaps and bounds This is my impression but I'm not a biologist My prior is low $/NME b/c products lag tech discoveries by 1020 years plus higher regulatory barriers to getting things to market"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-18 12:54:33 UTC 23K followers, XXX engagements

"@KolemanStrumpf While I agree that open data is the most credible it seems excessively risk averse to me to say "we can't know anything until the data is public.""
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-25 23:20:33 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements

"@KolemanStrumpf The Boston/Chicago comparison is quite consistent: XX minute difference before 5-6 after. Exactly the XX% in the paper above. The style of the graph just makes it hard to see"
@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad on X 2025-07-25 23:21:49 UTC 23.1K followers, XX engagements

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