# ![@paulnovosad Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::470696317.png) @paulnovosad Paul Novosad

Paul Novosad posts on X about ai, in the, india, if you the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::470696317/interactions)
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- [--] Week [---------] +539%
- [--] Month [---------] +166%
- [--] Months [----------] +183%
- [--] Year [----------] -5.10%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::470696317/posts_active)
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- [--] Months [---] +71%
- [--] Year [---] +48%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::470696317/followers)
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- [--] Week [------] +3.50%
- [--] Month [------] +12%
- [--] Months [------] +32%
- [--] Year [------] +47%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::470696317/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::470696317/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [finance](/list/finance)  #2733 [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [us election](/list/us-election)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai), [in the](/topic/in-the), [india](/topic/india), [if you](/topic/if-you), [countries](/topic/countries), [twitter](/topic/twitter), [this is](/topic/this-is), [paper](/topic/paper), [level](/topic/level), [china](/topic/china)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@arpitrage](/creator/undefined) [@afinetheorem](/creator/undefined) [@economeager](/creator/undefined) [@marthaff](/creator/undefined) [@bengolub](/creator/undefined) [@itaisher](/creator/undefined) [@soumitrashukla9](/creator/undefined) [@alzzyd](/creator/undefined) [@sashagusevposts](/creator/undefined) [@georgemporter](/creator/undefined) [@atabarrok](/creator/undefined) [@eniiljazi](/creator/undefined) [@ryancbriggs](/creator/undefined) [@anantsudarshan](/creator/undefined) [@krishnanrohit](/creator/undefined) [@joefrancis505](/creator/undefined) [@aliceevans](/creator/undefined) [@jmhorp](/creator/undefined) [@thesamasher](/creator/undefined) [@openai](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Frontier (FRONT)](/topic/frontier) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/google) [Neumark (NEU)](/topic/neumark)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Daughter just came into home office (bedroom) to see if I wanted to order anything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1428794259554115588)  2021-08-20T19:01Z 22.6K followers, [--] engagements


"📣 New working paper on residential segregation in India. Weve been working for [--] years on this. [--] facts about residential segregation in India from new administrative data. The situation is not great 🧵 1/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1669373541584719873)  2023-06-15T15:57Z 30.9K followers, 1.6M engagements


"Fact 5: Public services in cities are less likely to be found in neighborhoods with many SCs and Muslims. A 100% Muslim neighborhood is only half as likely to have a secondary school as a neighborhood with no Muslims. 10/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1669373558856794112)  2023-06-15T15:57Z 14.4K followers, 69.4K engagements


"I've been telling people about this paper for a while it's sooooo neat. Prayers for rain only "work" in places where the probability of rain is increasing in the length of the dry spell --- so these places have more religious belief. https://www.nber.org/papers/w31411 https://www.nber.org/papers/w31411"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1675866991821746176)  2023-07-03T14:00Z 30.9K followers, 252.2K engagements


"This strategy only works in equilibrium if a small number of people are doing it. I think its better discouraged"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1677846790509408261)  2023-07-09T01:07Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Is there any better feeling than condescension for working class preferences Congratulations you don't want these things you're superior You've made it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1678528401735286784)  2023-07-10T22:31Z 14.3K followers, 10.3K engagements


"@economeager I read the article as best as I can tell it seems like it was to have good individual performance metrics and they invented white names which were at front of mind. I would guess this happens in every dept with bad monitoring"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1678556076105519104)  2023-07-11T00:05Z 19.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@leightjessica TFW when you need to check your IRB protocol to remember who your coauthors are on a paper"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1679148538872360963)  2023-07-12T15:37Z 13.9K followers, [---] engagements


"We made a room-temperature superconductor out of common household supplies Levitation in video below. Materials: - [--] 4x4 inverted radar dish Lego pieces (gray) - [--] technic pin (red) Arxiv paper to be posted soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1686539499772260353)  2023-08-02T00:57Z 14.3K followers, [---] engagements


"Very bad and fascinating. Paper link and abstract for those who can't tolerate cute video explainers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1691517420807032832)  2023-08-15T18:29Z 14.3K followers, 94.5K engagements


"This was interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1692547989506564596)  2023-08-18T14:44Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@ryancbriggs A lot of these conversations are missing the fact that we use our brains when we look at results we dont just blindly add published papers to a list of facts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1695145972932710752)  2023-08-25T18:47Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements


"Results-free folk is this the wrong model of the problem How would you frame it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1695254286995718473)  2023-08-26T01:58Z 14.3K followers, [---] engagements


"@ethanbdm You're overthinking itpeople don't mean anything different from "let's discuss lots of ideas let the worst ones be weeded out and the best ones win." You might think "the Darwinian ecosystem of ideas" is more apt but tough luck that one lost out in the marketplace of ideas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1696210833909411978)  2023-08-28T17:19Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements


"@BarbaraBiasi I think both strategies can be successful. The latter definitely gives you a more predictable path through submissions and revisions. But life is too short to work on problems that don't get you up in the morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1699569081601368419)  2023-09-06T23:43Z 13.9K followers, 10.5K engagements


"From the Ezra Klein podcast what an epidemiologist learned during the pandemic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1700320096646750579)  2023-09-09T01:27Z 18.6K followers, 13.8K engagements


"@J2dubyas his seems like a big consumer win to me. I wouldn't bet on the regulators getting the next one right but sometimes the stopped clock is right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1701667094197076015)  2023-09-12T18:40Z 14.3K followers, [---] engagements


"@J2dubyas Heh Apple hasn't seemed in a big rush to innovate on their shitty connectors. But it seems like you would want a sunset provision to allow for future innovation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1701671620614504830)  2023-09-12T18:58Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements


"@BachmannRudi @DSchindlerEcon @PHuenermund You have it backwards it is the EJMR founders and users who want us to live in a retrograde society"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1702285190830174216)  2023-09-14T11:36Z 14.3K followers, [---] engagements


"Why does @overleaf's visual editor show line breaks (Promising feature though)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1705225249673896446)  2023-09-22T14:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"OpenAI has low key become better than Apple and Google at voice transcription. The ChatGPT app crushes Siri and Voice Assistant. It's obvious in retrospect run the audio and candidate interpretations through GPT and ask which is the most plausible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1706045727992951126)  2023-09-24T20:39Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@alex_peys Funny most everyone thinks their field's norms are the best. It's like grade inflation in equilibrium it matters almost not at all you get evaluated based on norms in your field the only thing that actually pays is if you get treated better than others in your field"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1708312002441974008)  2023-10-01T02:44Z 14.3K followers, [---] engagements


"@notanastronomer Luxembourg definitely doesn't count but I feel like Finland deserves to stay if they can stay happy when it's so cold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1711752289084395914)  2023-10-10T14:35Z 14.3K followers, [---] engagements


"I find it appalling that the "decolonization is always violent" folks have so much sway in the intellectual life of universities. If the university holds any political position it should be: the pen is mightier than the sword"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1712911377130488055)  2023-10-13T19:21Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements


"What's the vibe on econ PhD admissions in top European depts Is it open and competitive for random applicants or do profs mostly pull in people they already have relationships with e.g. Stockholm Sciences Po Univ of Zurich etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1716831973732433984)  2023-10-24T15:00Z 23.4K followers, 80.9K engagements


"Should you exploit all characteristics of your position/influence in pursuit of social justice No The best way to pursue social justice as an academic is to do ace research. The best way to pursue social justice as a journalist is to do good journalism. 1/5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1717189240604286987)  2023-10-25T14:39Z 13.9K followers, 38K engagements


"Interesting: "Most African firms resemble artisanal workshops whose business model is not easily scalable.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1717214850357604489)  2023-10-25T16:21Z 13.9K followers, 24.5K engagements


"@asad__tariq Yes there will be a gray area and disagreement over where to draw the lines but it's a thing we should be able to have a good faith debate over. I agree misogyny and discrimination should not be acceptable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1717334533266108521)  2023-10-26T00:17Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements


"@asad__tariq But in the current climate having an alternate view on say the effectiveness of affirmative action this could be enough to make you ideologically out of bounds of many academic departments. I don't think this is sustainable for publicly funded universities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1717335269832118714)  2023-10-26T00:20Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements


"@5h09un @ezraklein Specifically the claim "the result has been a profusion of chaos disinformation and division on his platform." On chaos I agree chiefly because of the capricious platform changes. On disinformation and division I recall these were pretty notable before Musk as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1717686547577720982)  2023-10-26T23:36Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements


"@5h09un @ezraklein I agree that post takeover Musk has had some very stupid tweets ironically they've been amplified by people on the left on all the other social media platforms too. But other than Musk tweeting it doesn't seem any less informative than before"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1717688701898133839)  2023-10-26T23:44Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements


"Super interesting: "While many countries have been reporting COVID-19 deaths very accurately some countries have been substantially underreporting their COVID-19 deaths (e.g. Nicaragua Russia Uzbekistan) by up to [--] orders of magnitude (Tajikistan)." https://elifesciences.org/articles/69336#sa1 https://elifesciences.org/articles/69336#sa1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1717979881902854258)  2023-10-27T19:01Z 15K followers, [---] engagements


"I'm sure there are exceptions but community notes seem to be working very well they are mostly coherent reasonable and apolitical. It suggests a silent majority of Twitter users may be moderate and honest compared to the most frequent posters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1717986497205297411)  2023-10-27T19:27Z 13.9K followers, [----] engagements


"This is really neat: Community Notes work because they estimate users' political preferences and upweight notes that are liked by users of all stripes. I wonder if other parts of our democracy could be improved with mechanisms like this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1718025010445525353)  2023-10-27T22:00Z 13.9K followers, 153.2K engagements


"Air pollution in Delhi vs. this year's wildfire smoke in New York"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1720524302083141745)  2023-11-03T19:32Z 14K followers, [----] engagements


"@MarthaF_F @economeager @HarvardEcon I've often wondered what share of slots in top programs go to predocs already at top programs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1720866744061854123)  2023-11-04T18:12Z 20K followers, [---] engagements


"Here's an easy way to tell if someone is an educator or an political activist. The activist says: The situation is plain as day it's good vs. evil. The educator says: The situation is complicated there are many perspectives few easy answers without tradeoffs. 5/5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1721856246897127821)  2023-11-07T11:44Z 13.9K followers, [----] engagements


"I listened to a 3h podcast with one of the most famous EAs and 100% of his references were to his own blog posts. It was borderline. Interesting stuff but if your only information comes from reading EA blogs (or your own blog) you are never going to correct your mistakes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1726264928879915386)  2023-11-19T15:43Z 14K followers, [---] engagements


"We included Facebook's Relative Wealth index in the SHRUG as it is one of the only granular measures of living standards in India since [----]. It's under-used read the thread and check it out --"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1729136474443182204)  2023-11-27T13:53Z 14K followers, 52.8K engagements


"Our middle school is taking away advanced math justified in part with these quotes from Harvard's admissions web site. I think this is funny "we view your math records holistically" like wtf does that mean if you're not looking at which courses were taken"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1730452572513923283)  2023-12-01T05:03Z 14K followers, 68K engagements


"This is a bad look for both India and the Bank. Its inevitable that political pressure affects aid programs but the Bank should not be complicit in suppressing research"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1730608491507875951)  2023-12-01T15:23Z 14K followers, [----] engagements


"@cblatts Ah so perhaps falling fertility is to blame for people being so sanctimonious these days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1730630082002383268)  2023-12-01T16:48Z 14K followers, [----] engagements


"@UrbanDemog @economeager @leah_boustan @claudferraz @_alice_evans @ben_golub @jenniferdoleac Whether they should become coauthors depends on the norms of the field. Its not informative to impose these standards across fields its like saying oh that economist is so bad he only published [--] articles last year I write 15+ per year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1733243227338076612)  2023-12-08T21:52Z 14K followers, [---] engagements


"@UrbanDemog @economeager @leah_boustan @claudferraz @_alice_evans @ben_golub @jenniferdoleac Coauthorships in different fields are as different as currencies in different countries. Comparing 1:1 is senseless"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1733243591684768100)  2023-12-08T21:54Z 14K followers, [---] engagements


"@gunnarblix I guess I don't understand the meaning of this slogan "no freedom from consequences." If you get kicked out of school for carrying a sign that says "from the river to the sea" did you have free speech but not freedom from consequences"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1734415543803744441)  2023-12-12T03:31Z 14K followers, [--] engagements


"@gunnarblix If you present an academic paper arguing that affirmative action had unintended consequences and a group of students shout and disrupt to stop the seminar from happening was that a case of "free speech but not freedom from consequences""  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1734415567958733046)  2023-12-12T03:31Z 14K followers, [--] engagements


"I'm just so sad that so many progressives have abandoned the ideal that we shouldn't treat people differently based on their skin color. I'm baffled people are willing to defend this. I don't think this is getting us to a better place. https://www.bostonherald.com/2023/12/12/boston-city-hall-roiled-by-email-party-invitation-for-electeds-of-color-sent-to-all/ https://www.bostonherald.com/2023/12/12/boston-city-hall-roiled-by-email-party-invitation-for-electeds-of-color-sent-to-all/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1735106225413492985)  2023-12-14T01:15Z 30.9K followers, 178.5K engagements


"When reading reference letters it's always good to watch for secret messages hidden in ambiguity: "You would be lucky to get this person to work for you." "I most enthusiastically recommend this candidate with no qualifications whatsoever." Please add any good ones you see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1736406863934103607)  2023-12-17T15:23Z 14.1K followers, 94.2K engagements


"Has any economist done a deep dive into this claim on here I'd be curious to read the view of a neutral expert. You may have heard that the introduction of blind auditions in orchestras resulted in a dramatic increase of women being hired. One day I decided to read the study the claim is from. It turns out that it doesn't support the claim at all. In the paper there is only one https://t.co/YBmrkDUTk2 You may have heard that the introduction of blind auditions in orchestras resulted in a dramatic increase of women being hired. One day I decided to read the study the claim is from. It turns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1737593283063497141)  2023-12-20T21:58Z 14.5K followers, 55.9K engagements


"@besttrousers "Inconclusive but innovative" is certainly not how the paper is treated in the literature. Here's Neumark in JEL (2018)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1737809638236586165)  2023-12-21T12:17Z 15.3K followers, [---] engagements


"It is good that people sometimes work 12-hour days on world-changing research"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1737840490865971456)  2023-12-21T14:20Z 18.2K followers, 74.4K engagements


"@SethS_D I think you're mixing metaphors this is more apt for fields where the PhD doesn't have outside value. In econ it is arguably worth even more if you're not in the tenure track job"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1738043592449393006)  2023-12-22T03:47Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Engineers have figured out to cut back on the toxicity of the internet but firms who are good at it keep it secret as a competitive advantage. A fascinating question of private vs. public interests"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1742623447811756317)  2024-01-03T19:06Z 14.3K followers, 137.8K engagements


"The social value of these innovations could be extraordinary maybe a big chunk of the mental health issues caused by social media could be averted But if firms couldn't keep their toxicity algorithms secret maybe they wouldn't invest in developing them @nikhilbd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742624069525143877)  2024-01-03T19:08Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"What are your fav article and books on narrative construction on social media Like how an event happens and there are many competing narratives and we eventually settle on one. Sometimes on a true narrative and sometimes on one which is convenient simple and wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1743291248394248437)  2024-01-05T15:19Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements


"What are your fav article and books on narrative construction on social media Like how an event happens and there are many competing narratives and we eventually settle on one. Sometimes on a true narrative and sometimes on one which is convenient simple and wrong. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1743291928123240697)  2024-01-05T15:22Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@abiylfoyp Wait are you kidding You might have met a weird sample of top academics some are the research-obsessed people youre talking about but a good chunk are just ruthlessly playing the game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744734971456299446)  2024-01-09T14:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@arpitrage @economeager @ashdgandhi The big effects would all be long-run which are impossible to get in an RCT. But if you had really good evidence on long-run effects a lot of behavior would change (as would laws). We don't see behavior change b/c the research is dumb: it's rational"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1745265097130336261)  2024-01-11T02:03Z 14.3K followers, [---] engagements


"@zivoren @economeager @MarkFabian_PAIS Age is one of the weaker predictors of happiness (as is gender) https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/274143/1/185508077X.pdf https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/274143/1/185508077X.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1746928632465961053)  2024-01-15T16:13Z 23.4K followers, [--] engagements


"@ElliotLip I walked past a raw turkey impaled on a fencepost outside a frat house this morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1747083890525635055)  2024-01-16T02:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ryancbriggs The reverse bankshot "actually good things are bad" strikes again. @arpitrage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1748740270030459380)  2024-01-20T16:12Z 14.3K followers, [---] engagements


"@georgemporter Sorry not silly but contrived. It is not a serious claim of financial harm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1749223562316017807)  2024-01-22T00:12Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements


"@georgemporter Regarding "OpenAI uses the copywritten text of the new york times to bring value to their app/service/website and they didn't pay for it." I'm pretty sure there are lot of trading firms that are scraping NYT and trading on the sentiment. That also fits your statement I think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1749223822446760397)  2024-01-22T00:13Z 13.9K followers, [---] engagements


"@georgemporter Are the people selling Banksy imitations breaking the law What about other artists doing work in the style of Banksy which are not being pitched as imitations How is this not "a product sold for money based on others' intellectual property""  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1749224214274429166)  2024-01-22T00:15Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements


"@georgemporter It seems above all of our pay grades to be honest which is why I find it surprising when people have gut conclusions suggesting the results should be very obvious. So I'm curious to learn about where people's strong priors are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1749229007617360287)  2024-01-22T00:34Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements


"@georgemporter It seems like people are drawing on a lot of metaphors like "taking works without attribution is theft" but all these feel very different from what OpenAI is doing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1749229404918538545)  2024-01-22T00:36Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements


"@georgemporter Like "derivative works" has been understood very very differently because nothing like OpenAI has existed before maybe OpenAI fits under this bucket but it's far from obvious"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1749229562028794130)  2024-01-22T00:36Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements


"@georgemporter That's fair. But applying these definitions to OpenAI's work is still quite a stretch Clearly the law was written with something else in mind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1749235108631007252)  2024-01-22T00:58Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements


"@Alicoh1 @mattsclancy @lymanstoneky I'm more a fan of revealed preference. Though the graphs look pretty similar from 19702005"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1752147109812289785)  2024-01-30T01:49Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements


"TFW ChatGPT writes you [---] lines of code to do a thing that would have taken you all day or you would have never done at all and it works on the first try. Impossible things are possible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1752686737321554153)  2024-01-31T13:34Z 14.3K followers, 11.5K engagements


"I will vote for any candidate who will require pasta companies to put the boiling time in large print on the front of the box"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1752849134740975637)  2024-02-01T00:19Z 18.2K followers, [----] engagements


"I find it wild that people out there think that essays are more egalitarian than exam scores Wow: He started by editing college essays from his Yale dorm room for $50 an hour but now charges the parents of his companys [---] clients $120000 a year to help them create a narrative he believes will appeal to college-admissions officers. https://t.co/oiL7Ctp0Nj Wow: He started by editing college essays from his Yale dorm room for $50 an hour but now charges the parents of his companys [---] clients $120000 a year to help them create a narrative he believes will appeal to college-admissions officers."  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1753188871334993949)  2024-02-01T22:49Z 14.4K followers, 56.9K engagements


"@economeager Interesting The article is a bit click-baity ("our simple statistical trick eliminates all gender disparities") and it seems to depend on bad distributional assumptions (see the comment paper). But I think the big idea is right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1754495791983419442)  2024-02-05T13:22Z 14.4K followers, [---] engagements


"@Afinetheorem @economeager @pappubahry Yes my intuition is that this kind of rank comparison seems like it would depend less on distributional assumptions than what the authors did"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1754540138493870427)  2024-02-05T16:19Z 14.4K followers, [---] engagements


"PSA you might help someone's mental health by saving your hot takes on predoc application reading until the market has cleared"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1755415859600724148)  2024-02-08T02:18Z 14.4K followers, 11K engagements


"@mushfiq_econ Doesn't seem totally off-base Yale etc. represent the central (but shaky) American ideal anyone can join the elite if they are good enough. They also de facto place 100% of supreme court justices among other things so their admissions matter as much as judge selection"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1760671644937527637)  2024-02-22T14:23Z 14.4K followers, [---] engagements


"@mushfiq_econ I don't aspire to have my kids to go to Yale since the entry process strikes me as a mix of corruption and harm to teen mental health. But I very much care about how our society's elites are chosen and elite schools play a key part in that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1760672796039069973)  2024-02-22T14:28Z 14.4K followers, [---] engagements


"@ATabarrok It's likely that Google Search also deliberately down-weighted sites classified as hate sites etc. in their search results. AI makes this problem much more challenging and transparent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1761891686093918472)  2024-02-25T23:11Z 14.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@itaisher @joestieb And yet his (worst) social media posts are extremely unprofessional and cast a lot of doubt that his classroom would be impartial. Your tweet is a good starting point but what to do when profs send all the signals that they will not in fact be teaching impartially"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1764824849912836161)  2024-03-05T01:26Z 14.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Instead of banning TikTok let's ban journal publishers from embedding PDFs in their bad web sites instead of download links"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1767930774207029685)  2024-03-13T15:08Z 14.4K followers, [---] engagements


"People dunking on this too quickly "correlation is not causation" "we don't vote count studies" etc. *Not every important question can be answered with a perfect RCT* For decades the cigarette-cancer link was similarly correlational based on case studies etc. 🧵 1/N A review in Nature by @candice_odgers asserts that I have mistaken correlation for causation and that there is no evidence that using these platforms is rewiring childrens brains or driving an epidemic of mental illness. Both of these assertions are untrue. A review in Nature by @candice_odgers asserts that I have mistaken"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1774796643985953132)  2024-04-01T13:51Z 14.5K followers, 228.3K engagements


"@ForrestFleisch1 I think in general a bad practice (and far too common on here) to judge arguments based on their authors rather than on their merits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1774808480462905684)  2024-04-01T14:38Z 14.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@sergiotpinto @mikekofoed Is this correct that the downward mental health trend is unique to the United States Here is a study from what looks like France's public health agency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1774810125636653425)  2024-04-01T14:44Z 14.5K followers, [----] engagements


"I have an undergrad student looking for Census-type microdata on Brazil. Education demography earnings employment in the post Bolsa Familia area. Can anyone recommend DHS or LSMS style surveys that are public and not too impossible to work with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1785392661165191177)  2024-04-30T19:35Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Went to the Dartmouth protests with my 16-year-old last night. His take: this doesn't really feel like we have a right to free assembly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1786215513305006347)  2024-05-03T02:05Z 14.7K followers, 41.1K engagements


"I'm not a maximalist when there's fighting in the streets I think it can be reasonable to limit freedom of assembly. But the Dartmouth "encampment" was peacefully occupying about [---] sq. feet of public space. The swift law enforcement response was chilling and uncalled for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1786218432133734467)  2024-05-03T02:17Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements


"@scientaficta @omid This kind of narrow parsing of the law is exactly how the Chinese suppress protests. You can always find an ordinance that is broken and use it as justification to call the riot police. But you don't want to live in a society that uses these tools gratuitously"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1786235574208082017)  2024-05-03T03:25Z 14.6K followers, [--] engagements


"@FairyCalvo If this is what your working code looks like you are going to be making errors all over the place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1786748814713340198)  2024-05-04T13:24Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements


""My high school has produced [--] Nobel laureates but they apparently have not taught me that it is extremely obvious that my writing is generated by AI.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1787559055008915708)  2024-05-06T19:04Z 14.6K followers, 19.2K engagements


"Dartmouth's student government held an open "no confidence" vote on the president's handling of campus protests. It passed (no confidence) 13-2 (with [--] abstensions). Then they repeated with a secret ballot. It failed 8-9 (2 abstensions). 1/2 https://www.thedartmouth.com/article/2024/05/dsg-fails-vote-of-no-confidence-in-college-leadership https://www.thedartmouth.com/article/2024/05/dsg-fails-vote-of-no-confidence-in-college-leadership"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1787915830409187513)  2024-05-07T18:42Z 30.9K followers, 1.3M engagements


"When you hear how many people say or support something you always have to understand the social dynamics in which these "votes" take place. Many institutional and social structures are suppressing people's true opinions. 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1787915831860424769)  2024-05-07T18:42Z 30.9K followers, 78K engagements


"@mushfiq_econ While we can't rule out the alternate interpretation I think it is less likely than your original interpretation of the tweet. Unfortunately the article is not specific on how much time or debate passed between the two votes. https://twitter.com/paulnovosad/status/1788561518658752938 @DinaPomeranz Yes we can't precisely identify that the secret ballot is what made the difference. However senators themselves said so and the public environment of the meeting was hardly neutral. So I feel that Occam's razor suggests fear of publicly voicing views was central."  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1788562133405327526)  2024-05-09T13:30Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Mario Capecchi (Nobel Medicine 2007)'s research was funded only because he included [--] aims which were only marginal contributions in his NIH app. Reviewers strongly discouraged the 3rd he put all the money into it anyway and made incredible breakthroughs in gene modification"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1788942843987345832)  2024-05-10T14:43Z 14.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Link to paper: Pierre AzoulayJoshua S. Graff ZivinGustavo Manso "Incentives and creativity: evidence from the academic life sciences" https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1756-2171.2011.00140.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1756-2171.2011.00140.x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1788943007682584691)  2024-05-10T14:43Z 14.7K followers, [---] engagements


"This was a fascinating book about Jon Simons. A lot of the people praising him don't realize he ran a middling/failing fund for years and years before hitting the jackpot. A story of persistence in addition to brilliance. https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Solved-Market-Revolution/dp/073521798X https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Solved-Market-Revolution/dp/073521798X"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1788989142631612535)  2024-05-10T17:47Z 14.7K followers, [---] engagements


"U.S. working hours per year are lower than they have ever been. The thing that is demanding your constant full attention and dysregulating your nervous system is your iPhone. Capitalism demands our full attention working constantly. It doesnt give us room to actually be human feel feelings or take time to breathe. It makes it so our nervous system is always dysregulated. This isnt sustainable dude. We cant keep living this way. Capitalism demands our full attention working constantly. It doesnt give us room to actually be human feel feelings or take time to breathe. It makes it so our nervous"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1790714918993297599)  2024-05-15T12:04Z 30.9K followers, 45.1K engagements


"Does OpenAI have a secret world-destroying AI (but NDA so can't talk about it right) or is it just that Sam Altman is hard to work with. I resigned I resigned"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1790716192337920417)  2024-05-15T12:09Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@ryancbriggs No disregard for plot is an annoying status signal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1791095056817926596)  2024-05-16T13:15Z 14.7K followers, [---] engagements


"We should have cross school studies on bullying norms eg using social media data. There are probably high social returns to anti-bullying norms it would be nice to know what works at creating these. We knock the kids a lot on here but their norm against (at least in-person) bullying is very positive. I also moved at [--] but to a school where the Prom Queen and the future NFL star among others set norm of respect: good peer pressure. Quick way to being uncool was bullying We knock the kids a lot on here but their norm against (at least in-person) bullying is very positive. I also moved at 14"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1791906165787693411)  2024-05-18T18:58Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@zamartin @JustinSandefur Yeah I don't understand this. If these are PPP numbers then you need like at least $0.50/day ($180/year) just to have enough calories to be alive. Malawi PPP looks like about [--] (might be wrong) in which case $20 - $280 PPP could be in the ballpark"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1792370385692062024)  2024-05-20T01:42Z 14.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Retweeting this job market paper in my field"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1793073165830365647)  2024-05-22T00:15Z 14.7K followers, 14.5K engagements


"Some thoughts on the randomized JMP tweet paper long thread. 1/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1793319776783421450)  2024-05-22T16:35Z 14.8K followers, 74.6K engagements


"@MikkoPackalen @Afinetheorem I don't think this is a reasonable definition of dishonesty. When I talk to most people I do not preface every statement with a clear causal pathway describing how I arrived at the thing I am going to say"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1793350249978753281)  2024-05-22T18:36Z 14.7K followers, [--] engagements


"@ash_craig @ZetaOf1 I don't get this complaint. If you run a training program for anyone there could be a negative GE effect on non-participants. If anyone gets an open job there could be someone else who didn't. But nobody would dream of objecting to this unless the subjects are economists"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1793708023598420474)  2024-05-23T18:18Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements


"The "deep roots" version of ethics i.e. the study of what will get you murdered by your tribe A good test for the ethics of your RCT is "would I run something similar with econ faculty" A good test for the ethics of your RCT is "would I run something similar with econ faculty""  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1795514308266508401)  2024-05-28T17:55Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Everything is worse they only paint half the sky now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1800709493459972574)  2024-06-12T01:59Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements


"What gets you into a top college is being above some moderate competence bar and then from like 8th grade or earlier organizing your life around getting into a top college. Very few 8th graders have this level of motivation so we mainly select on parent characteristics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1808153517204689203)  2024-07-02T14:59Z 30.9K followers, 230.8K engagements


"It's mainly: did parents steer the kid's energy into activities that build a college CV. Some of these activities involve real human capital accumulation like Russian math. Too many of them like starting NGOs writing research papers stints overseas are mainly signaling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1808154364131135739)  2024-07-02T15:02Z 14.8K followers, 14.3K engagements


"@MarthaF_F This is exactly my point i'm guessing a lot of people from your jr high went to top colleges. And yeah I did k-12 in Canada nobody gave a shit where anyone went to college"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1808164340769738984)  2024-07-02T15:42Z 20K followers, 11.9K engagements


"As far as resolving the uncertainty the press conference couldn't have been worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1811720490874032564)  2024-07-12T11:13Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Its the Rorschach Graph The tweet has nothing to do with the graph content nor do any of the replies or quotes. These diagrams from How they make money are absolutely brilliant at pointing out the zero sum nature of some of the worlds most disruptive companies. (And by disruptive I mean unsustainable - just try getting a cab in central London these days ) As costs bite and investors https://t.co/24nu5CevwI These diagrams from How they make money are absolutely brilliant at pointing out the zero sum nature of some of the worlds most disruptive companies. (And by disruptive I mean unsustainable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1811931397440909698)  2024-07-13T01:11Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@josh_t_dean Yup makes ppl look worse for criticizing him and also provides an excuse to avoid damaging public appearances"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1813709255762903440)  2024-07-17T22:55Z 14.9K followers, [---] engagements


"I think ppl are underrating Dems serious winning chances once Biden steps down. Contrast his decision to do whats best for the country vs trumps refusal to leave even when voted out. If he stays in on the other hand they start to look the same"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1814337332599992409)  2024-07-19T16:31Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements


"My preliminary takeaway from the 3-year cash transfer study: Poverty is a lot more than just not having enough cash. Many factors interact to keep people in a bad equilibrium. Once you're in that equilibrium cash transfers alone don't change your steady state. 1/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1815574144701903012)  2024-07-23T02:26Z 30.9K followers, 70.6K engagements


"It's a bit obvious in retrospect. But the recent zeitgeist has very much been one of "poverty is just low income cash transfers are the answer." Not to mention the Silicon Valley dreams of AI + UBI utopia. 2/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1815574145909797245)  2024-07-23T02:26Z 15K followers, [----] engagements


"Effective protest needs to (1) get attention; (2) make people sympathetic to your side. A lot of modern protest energy is doing great on [--] and failing terribly on 2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1816475648912982340)  2024-07-25T14:08Z 15K followers, [----] engagements


"Good: - lunch counter sit-ins your opponents look really bad when they arrest you for eating lunch - tank-man Bad: - just stop oil hey look we vandalized the Mona Lisa are you with us now If Fox News is thrilled to cover your protest you might not be winning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1816475650510991494)  2024-07-25T14:08Z 15K followers, [---] engagements


"@TimothyLiptrot @robinhanson So protesters have different objectives now than they used to I think this is right that many of todays protesters mistake attention for impact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1816488558552871102)  2024-07-25T14:59Z 15K followers, [---] engagements


"Based on my targeted ads it seems like the Harris campaign is going with "I'm not Trump""  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1817221849765368162)  2024-07-27T15:33Z 15K followers, [----] engagements


"@arpitrage A wild chart. What happened more specifically Did cops get pulled off of traffic beats Are they out there and just not stopping anyone Diverted to other activities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1817298607344669166)  2024-07-27T20:38Z 15.1K followers, 18.9K engagements


"Bayesian Stats Folk 🤝 Cryptocurrency Bros: - it's kind of a red pill - have secret knowledge not available to normies - think the status quo is doomed to failure - keep trying to explain it nobody understands"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1817897140997206517)  2024-07-29T12:17Z 15K followers, [----] engagements


"I'm sorry I missed the white dudes for Harris zoom sounds like it was great energy. Gonna see if there are any other white dude clubs I can join in NH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1818252907395100944)  2024-07-30T11:50Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@kaseyklimes 6:1 in favor based on the replies so far if we can get to n=30 it will be data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1818688623497429078)  2024-07-31T16:42Z 30.9K followers, 44.6K engagements


"@dai_majin99 @kaseyklimes Indeed the smart small landlord values peace more than profit so if you're a good tenant you can get a deal. But it's very hard for either tenants or landlords to know ex ante where a given counterparty is the peaceful type or not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1818703510655189129)  2024-07-31T17:41Z 15.1K followers, [---] engagements


"Good threads from @pseudoerasmus on the Hickel exploitation paper. https://x.com/pseudoerasmus/status/1503365347524722692 https://x.com/pseudoerasmus/status/1493633787221188609 https://x.com/pseudoerasmus/status/1503365347524722692 https://x.com/pseudoerasmus/status/1493633787221188609"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1819066656020414884)  2024-08-01T17:44Z 15.1K followers, [---] engagements


"This is such a bad outcome. It creates more work for everyone and the scientific dialogue is lost. The discipline never gets to see the debate over which the paper was rejected. Instead it will get published at the next place and the critique is hidden forever. 1/n economics ::: spend a year on an R&R do everything the editors and referees ask for get a rejection 💔 economics ::: spend a year on an R&R do everything the editors and referees ask for get a rejection 💔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1819471225296708067)  2024-08-02T20:31Z 15.1K followers, 20.4K engagements


"It's impossible to litigate this case without more info and unclear the ed can do more in partial equilibrium. But this shows how our publication process is suboptimal. It should be normal for papers to be published with critiques. This cuts down on the pressure to reject. 2/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1819471227104399737)  2024-08-02T20:31Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements


"SSC readers will recognize the Algerian boxer situation as a Shiri's Scissor operation. It's best just not to discuss or even think about it. https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/10/30/sort-by-controversial/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/10/30/sort-by-controversial/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1819554004994523507)  2024-08-03T02:00Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Sigh going to have to fire up the goalpost shifting engines again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1820781279970783607)  2024-08-06T11:17Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Which is better for your purposes: ChatGPT (never used Claud Claude (never used chatgp Claude (used both) ChatGPT (used both) ChatGPT (never used Claud Claude (never used chatgp Claude (used both) ChatGPT (used both)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1820918188055687642)  2024-08-06T20:21Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Amazon secretly made me buy a bunch of Audible credits that I now need to spend. What are the nonfiction books youve read that still sit with you years later Esp books that not everyone else has read. 🙏 🙏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1821231427188617492)  2024-08-07T17:06Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@Noahpinion Larry Summers often used this argument against capital controls: "It's like a hotel trying to raise profits by preventing its guests from leaving." Incredible to see it in real life"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1821266704263213436)  2024-08-07T19:26Z 15.1K followers, [---] engagements


"ha ha this is such a stupid rule Wouldn't it be a shame if Jordan Chiles couldn't find where she put the medal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1822644093647737219)  2024-08-11T14:39Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Wild that this obviously superior solution was right under their noses but the IOC couldn't figure it out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1822645650934112675)  2024-08-11T14:46Z 18.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@soumitrashukla9 @RuxandraTeslo Another model: You discover that elites are lying about sthg (e.g. masks work / don't work or Joe Biden is fine) then you become excessively distrustful of mainstream views. And if you're not thoughtful you just adopt every view from the primary distrusters-of-the-mainstream"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1822701868717580794)  2024-08-11T18:29Z 18.5K followers, [---] engagements


"I would happily pay $5/month for a Gmail feature where I get a notification if my email to someone ends up in their Gmail spam folder. Dear @gmail your spam AI has an alignment problem people reply to my 1-on-1 emails and you are putting them in my spam folder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1822986089826767253)  2024-08-12T13:18Z 18.4K followers, [---] engagements


"@alz_zyd_ Pro-Elon *and* pro-long-hours do you miss being canceled It would be a good A/B test to do this same post with say Kamala Harris and then compare the reactions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1823074811712881135)  2024-08-12T19:11Z 18.6K followers, [---] engagements


"@Afinetheorem It took me a while to understand the claim. My model is that frontier science increasingly needs teams. I think the argument is that NIH increasingly funds the most promising scientists (teams usually with old PIs) which gets the best results in the short term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1823840063006114119)  2024-08-14T21:52Z 18.6K followers, [--] engagements


"@Afinetheorem i.e. there is a new tradeoff between productivity and maintaining the scientist pipeline which maybe didn't exist in the days of solo science. Is this the idea"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1823840572353995028)  2024-08-14T21:54Z 18.6K followers, [---] engagements


"@Afinetheorem I assumed team science is happening because team papers are publishing well == higher productivity. More specifically some parts of the science frontier can only be explored by teams. If that is the case answer is not a simple "fund fewer teams""  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1823847052406874417)  2024-08-14T22:19Z 18.6K followers, [--] engagements


"@Afinetheorem It's more like if team science is best (in some domains) how to make sure we keep a good pipeline in those domains Not obvious it has to come from funding agencies e.g. one model is "fund the best (i.e. team) science" but fund a pipeline thru a separate channel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1823847387242090516)  2024-08-14T22:21Z 18.5K followers, [--] engagements


"@Afinetheorem If team science is the best way to explore the frontier maybe we *want* jr scientists in those domains to be jr members of a team. As opposed to running own indie labs with low productivity and not learning large team management skills"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1823847532533047372)  2024-08-14T22:21Z 18.5K followers, [--] engagements


"@Afinetheorem It sounds like you take the rise of teams as being somewhat exogenous. like external factors raise the returns to building a research team even if they're not better at doing science. Possible. but my prior is still that some parts of the frontier are hard to explore solo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1823859444633231764)  2024-08-14T23:09Z 18.6K followers, [--] engagements


"Dilemma for Palestine protesters disrupting the DNC would be very good news for Trump and thus very bad for Palestinians. I can't help but think that anyone participating in this is either very short-sighted or maybe just wants the attention"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1824794167400181913)  2024-08-17T13:03Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Why does my college-mandated sexual harassment training have a boss key (hiding the site and deleting it from your history) What other subversive training programs are people taking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1825162844821762239)  2024-08-18T13:28Z 19.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Wrong question. The real problem is too many people are getting through college without un-learning the polarized magical beliefs that they come in with. It is university-educated people who have ended nuclear power in Germany and want to stop inflation with price controls"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1825515952391454967)  2024-08-19T12:51Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Twitter is where change begins Obama in prime time goes full YIMBY on housing at the DNC and gets massive applause: "We need to chart a new way forward.we need to build more units & clear away some of the outdated laws & regulations that made it harder to build homes for working people." https://t.co/ianbMLWm9t Obama in prime time goes full YIMBY on housing at the DNC and gets massive applause: "We need to chart a new way forward.we need to build more units & clear away some of the outdated laws & regulations that made it harder to build homes for working people." https://t.co/ianbMLWm9t"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1826226197610844435)  2024-08-21T11:53Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@jeremychrysler We thought posting on Twitter was a distraction but the real distraction was the world outside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1826232473921200266)  2024-08-21T12:18Z 18.5K followers, [--] engagements


"@alz_zyd_ I agree intuitively but the data suggests upward mobility is currently worse in the U.S. than in Canada or Denmark. Maybe you are more right for "conditional on getting a solid HS education" which many Americans don't. But even then I'm not sure it's in the data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1826659338439815170)  2024-08-22T16:34Z 18.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Important paper. cc: democratic party Many (campaigns activists media personalities) have adopted a [----] strategy that declares "democracy is on the ballot." But does this message persuade voters In a new paper with @walk_erin @d_e_holliday and @ylelkes we find effects are countervailing and not durable. It https://t.co/01pX11Dcxi Many (campaigns activists media personalities) have adopted a [----] strategy that declares "democracy is on the ballot." But does this message persuade voters In a new paper with @walk_erin @d_e_holliday and @ylelkes we find effects are countervailing and not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1826700471706525918)  2024-08-22T19:18Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Why don't the candidates just say "we're gonna tackle inflation by raising interest rates and causing a [--] year recession""  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1827036479404573083)  2024-08-23T17:33Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@Afinetheorem Don't NIH grants require posting papers to some kind of open repo like PMC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1830951844966998523)  2024-09-03T12:51Z 18.4K followers, [---] engagements


"@GallenYana Wait until you see admin data in India"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1833166022263648755)  2024-09-09T15:30Z 18.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@jmhorp Its hard see a doc in countries with lower doc salaries not at all clear this moves you in the right direction on the graph. Its likely that our pcp salaries are too low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1833260044743544840)  2024-09-09T21:43Z 18.5K followers, [--] engagements


"I started using both Obsidian and Omnifocus a year ago and my aging brain is not making any progress whatsoever at quickly distinguishing between these logos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1833973893494964607)  2024-09-11T21:00Z 18.4K followers, [---] engagements


"@MarthaF_F @chloergibbs @ash_craig @chicagotribune @ABSStats The study: With results like these I'm surprised this isn't more widespread / more widely tested. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1411131 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1411131"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1834044119586668570)  2024-09-12T01:39Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Lots of cool examples of how GPT o1 can get things right that previous GPTs famously got wrong. Cool But keep in mind the GPT developers had exactly these misses in mind as they worked on the new model It's hard to determine external validity to other hard problems"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1834335308420465076)  2024-09-12T20:56Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Taylor Swift making a play for the Intro Econ syllabus I LIKE TAYLOR SWIFT (In addition to being an incredible artist she's really good at mechanism design 😀) https://t.co/yKhtSWkHyX I LIKE TAYLOR SWIFT (In addition to being an incredible artist she's really good at mechanism design 😀) https://t.co/yKhtSWkHyX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1835653530650325403)  2024-09-16T12:14Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Science is mostly government funded. Republicans control the government about half of the time. If scientists can't stop talking about how much they hate Republicans they will not keep getting funded. You don't have to like it it's foolish to ignore it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1836064488061386894)  2024-09-17T15:27Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements


"But the number of "researchers" doing pointless work is not that closely related to what progress we are making on the frontier (unless those researchers are taking resources from productive scientists but unclear that this would be the case). 8/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1836393304537338304)  2024-09-18T13:14Z 18.5K followers, [--] engagements


"It is an age of wonders. Computers that think programmable biology incredible progress on protein folding. Yes there is a huge mass of unproductive researchers/journals but this has approximately nothing to do with our capability of expanding the scientific frontier. 9/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1836393306466771028)  2024-09-18T13:14Z 18.4K followers, [---] engagements


"I regret to inform you that JD Vance and his cat stories have re-created the conditions of Trumps victory in [----] a topic where Dems are unpopular is at the front of mind and lefty elites are too busy sneering at the proles to notice this is a losing issue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1836581748127256714)  2024-09-19T01:43Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@Afinetheorem @ben_golub On the other hand https://x.com/karlerikmohlin/status/1836761024902373675 Pretty strong evidence of negative mental health effects of doing a PhD. Recent working paper by @EvaRanehill @annahsandberg Sanna Bergvall and Clara Fernstrm. Paper link: https://t.co/7X4uEjzPCC https://t.co/6ctQRAO1ar https://x.com/karlerikmohlin/status/1836761024902373675 Pretty strong evidence of negative mental health effects of doing a PhD. Recent working paper by @EvaRanehill @annahsandberg Sanna Bergvall and Clara Fernstrm. Paper link: https://t.co/7X4uEjzPCC https://t.co/6ctQRAO1ar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1836908432563007965)  2024-09-19T23:21Z 18.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@instrumenthull @glupyan Yeah lots of people responding as if it was meant to somehow debunk the paper I don't know OP's intent but i found the graph useful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1837184620552675619)  2024-09-20T17:38Z 18.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Side point on the topic of emailing professors: Nobody under the age of [--] is reading your tweets Side point on the topic of emailing professors: If you need something from a prof you don't know and have mentors you trust consider asking your mentor to reach out for you. This generally works better than cold-emailing Side point on the topic of emailing professors: If you need something from a prof you don't know and have mentors you trust consider asking your mentor to reach out for you. This generally works better than cold-emailing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1838566803997438248)  2024-09-24T13:10Z 18.4K followers, 20K engagements


"@Andrew___Baker Yes but the quote is a zinger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1838981050166333500)  2024-09-25T16:37Z 18.5K followers, [---] engagements


"This is a cool paper U.S. parents invest more in their children when they believe upward mobility is possible. Belief in the American Dream is self-fulfilling From the NBER mobility conference live stream https://www.youtube.com/watchv=pDpdvHTc2MU https://www.youtube.com/watchv=pDpdvHTc2MU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1839723742831813064)  2024-09-27T17:48Z 18.4K followers, 16.8K engagements


"We need more basic science because it is hard to predict which basic science results are going to be foundational. The microRNA papers behind today's Nobel Prize had fewer than [---] cites in their first five years after publication. https://nytimes.com/2024/10/07/health/nobel-prize-medicine.html https://nytimes.com/2024/10/07/health/nobel-prize-medicine.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1843382091008094423)  2024-10-07T20:05Z 18K followers, [----] engagements


"A Nobel Prize for gamers Demis Hassabis' first job was designing levels for Syndicate; he made PC games for another [--] years. cc: all my students who think their life is over if they don't get the Mckinsey job right out of the gates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1844022389795119138)  2024-10-09T14:29Z 17.9K followers, 10.6K engagements


"What kind of childhood makes a top scientist Is it enough to have all the right traits (brilliance grit etc) or do you need the right family too And why should we care A 🧵 on our paper on the Nobel Laureates. A teaser: the income distribution of the laureates' fathers.1/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844045388241915960)  2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 3.9M engagements


"This is work with @thesamasher @eni_iljazi (PhD student at Wharton) and Catriona Farquharson (predoc at Princeton). You can read the full paper here: 4/N https://paulnovosad.com/pdf/nobel-prizes.pdf https://paulnovosad.com/pdf/nobel-prizes.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844045395242176719)  2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 182.1K engagements


"Here's the core idea: If talent is uniformly distributed and opportunity is equal then Nobelists will come out of the woodwork from random families & places. If every laureate is born rich or in the West or has a teacher mom it means a lot of our geniuses are being missed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844045397255405917)  2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 336.2K engagements


"In economic history the best measure of a kids childhood is often the fathers occupation. It predicts SES and is often the only thing you can find. Moms occupations are more sparse in the historical record and many are housewives which doesnt tell you much about SES. 7/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844045401168687113)  2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 152.9K engagements


"Women face a lot of barriers in the sciences especially in our sample cohorts (18351975). Only 28/735 laureates are women. Female laureates come from more elite backgrounds suggesting family advantages made up for some of the barriers faced by women in the sciences. 15/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844045420651319595)  2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 318.8K engagements


"By every measure Nobel laureates born in the United States come from less elite backgrounds than laureates born elsewhere. 17/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844045425793491056)  2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 101.4K engagements


"More surprisingly we get more laureates in places with more *downward mobility*. When there is lots of churn and children from rich families are not guaranteed to be rich we produce more top scientists. 19/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844045430554075330)  2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 77.4K engagements


"A couple of ideas: [--]. People work harder when their outcomes arent guaranteed [--]. We get better allocation of talent when there is a lot of economic churn Causation isnt correlation so put this one into food for thought. 21/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844045434899374447)  2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 68K engagements


"In the global income distribution the average Nobel laureate comes from a family at the 94th percentile implying that 90% of global scientific talent is not achieving its potential. And this measure has barely improved at all in [---] years. 25/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844045443128598685)  2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 68.6K engagements


"Stephen Jay Goulds concern is as important today as it was in [----]. Brilliant people with the potential to make world-changing scientific discoveries are living and dying in poverty without ever getting the chance to nurture their talents. 26/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844045649274446180)  2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 65.4K engagements


"We address genetics bias in prize committees contributions to society outside of the sciences among others. Ill post another thread on some of these in a bit. 28/27"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844046072454504493)  2024-10-09T16:03Z 30.9K followers, 47.7K engagements


"@devilscompiler Do you look at a graph like this and confidently say oh its all genes If you looked at the distribution in the 1910s and said oh its all genes you would be wrong (bc the graph has changed a lot since then). So I dont get how ppl are so confident we have now arrived"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1844147073698103406)  2024-10-09T22:44Z 18.2K followers, 16.2K engagements


"- JD Vance in the donut shop - Tim Walz looks like he can't use a gun - Harris' weird "real men" ad - Yglesias fracking video How do these videos get approved for release It's like every last group is in a bubble with no concept of how outsiders perceive them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1845439897714209117)  2024-10-13T12:22Z 18.2K followers, [----] engagements


"@alz_zyd_ @arpitrage In theory market participants are trying to make money. In this case it's likely that the security price enters directly into the agent's utility function. If markets are liquid enough this kind of trading will wash out but in illiquid markets it seems like a problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1847277826594287847)  2024-10-18T14:05Z 23.7K followers, [---] engagements


"@alz_zyd_ @arpitrage In all your examples there's a profit motivation that should result in LOOP across these markets. But I have assets total market capitalization and just get kicks from seeing some prediction price then that prediction market isn't going to function"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1847279819484197228)  2024-10-18T14:13Z 23.7K followers, [---] engagements


"These are billion dollar bills on the sidewalk. Crime and recidivism are so costly to communities. Just having the human decency to let incarcerated people talk to their relatives reduces violent behavior A LOT. It's also just a basic human decency. The next ViCE seminar is this Thursday October [--] at 1pm ET. @PankaBencsik will present: "Calls and Conduct: The Impact of Free Communication on Prison Misconduct" More info: https://t.co/ZcUGjjquAj https://t.co/ELXVO1T3EL The next ViCE seminar is this Thursday October [--] at 1pm ET. @PankaBencsik will present: "Calls and Conduct: The Impact of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1848486619814498364)  2024-10-21T22:08Z 18.4K followers, 18.8K engagements


"Fascinating article claims the cost of maintaining trust in the Bitcoin network scales linearly with the value of attack i.e. Bitcoin can never be a significant part of the global financial system. And yet the price of BTC still indicates belief that it will be. Who is right Recently accepted by #QJE Trust at Scale: The Economic Limits of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains by Eric Budish: https://t.co/37qBMM8Ei0 Recently accepted by #QJE Trust at Scale: The Economic Limits of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains by Eric Budish: https://t.co/37qBMM8Ei0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1848555454864949352)  2024-10-22T02:42Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements


"The Latinx polling paper is excellent but reaches the wrong conclusion. It has almost nothing to do with queerphobia Latino voters just dont like being called LatinX. Politicians using the term "Latinx" lose [--] PERCENTAGE POINTS vote share. A 🧵👇🏻 1/N https://x.com/mfrmarcel/status/1850899401088377035 Amanda and I think we should still be using gender-inclusive language. The problem for Democrats is that segments of the Latino community that are queerphobic and would otherwise support them are less likely to do so if queerness is made salient through inclusive language 7/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1851994193503359003)  2024-10-31T14:26Z 30.9K followers, 433.5K engagements


"Its not about queerphobia. Hispanic voters just do not like to hear their identity described as Latinx 8/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1851994206933577993)  2024-10-31T14:26Z 23.7K followers, [----] engagements


"But heres the real kicker. This is the graph that gives us The Latinx effect is driven by queerphobic voters. It shows support for a politician based on a short vignette the only treatment is whether the politician uses the term Latino or Latinx 9/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1851994209118753206)  2024-10-31T14:26Z 23.7K followers, [----] engagements


"By the way the sample here is about twice as likely to be college-educated as the average Hispanic. The effect of latinx in the full population is probably even more damaging. 12/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1851994216467173790)  2024-10-31T14:26Z 23.7K followers, [----] engagements


"The authors conclude that we should keep using Latinx but we need to better educate Latino voters. Let me propose something easier. Democrat politicians should take the free votes and stop using the unpopular term Latinx. 13/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1851994218560098371)  2024-10-31T14:26Z 23.7K followers, [----] engagements


"@Kysarcius Yes the current Harris campaign has (imo rightly) abandoned much of this unfortunately she was in the political vanguard of it from 2016-22 so the reputation still dogs her. Plus many high profile Dem-aligned ppl still use it making it harder to notice if Harris doesnt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1852029657144553632)  2024-10-31T16:47Z 23.7K followers, [--] engagements


"40000 households were evicted from Addis Ababa slums in [------]. They collected georeferenced panel data before eviction then [--] years after for households on either side of eviction boundaries. This is what you need But uncommon to get it 2/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1852375212341203433)  2024-11-01T15:40Z 19.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Surprising results: - evicted households have *higher* employment and earnings in their new places - but they spend more on transport & housing no effect on net non-housing consumption - worse social networks - better housing & neighborhood 3/N"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1852376634076151855)  2024-11-01T15:46Z 19.6K followers, [---] engagements


"A new India-China fact (to me): The Chinese state prioritized primary education over secondary/tertiary while the Indian state did the opposite. Chinese primary enrollment rate passed India in [----] secondary [----] and tertiary only in 2000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1852701664966566034)  2024-11-02T13:17Z 30.9K followers, 542.7K engagements


"Live-tweeting @karthik_econ's presentation on state capacity at NEUDC. Simple story of India's economy: - Top 10% drives demand and growth - Next 30-40% in service sector jobs supporting the top 10% - remaining 50% left out supported by welfare programs Seems suboptimal 1/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1852729563144683824)  2024-11-02T15:08Z 30.9K followers, 293.3K engagements


"@karthik_econ "The weak performance of the Indian state is one of the ten greatest challenges facing humanity" Lant Pritchett [----] Karthik: weak state capacity is the greatest barrier to India reaching its full potential. 2/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1852729685681275201)  2024-11-02T15:09Z 19.9K followers, 12.1K engagements


"@karthik_econ Improving development is not just a matter of "more social spending" there is huge variance in the effectiveness of state spending. Social return on investment to improve governance and state effectiveness are 10x greater than just spending on programs. (study after study) 3/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1852730142239666266)  2024-11-02T15:11Z 19.8K followers, 14.4K engagements


"Important graph from Lamba and Subramanian (2020) India democratized at a vastly lower per capita income than almost any other country. 7/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/1852732125449183736)  2024-11-02T15:18Z 19.9K followers, 18.5K engagements

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