[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@neilksethi](/creator/twitter/neilksethi) "Ex-US its overall a light week although we do get the ECBs policy decision on Thursday where a hold is widely expected but what they might hint at about timing of another rate cut is less clear. There are also a few other central bank decisions (Turkey Hungary Nigeria Russia among others). In economic data well get flash PMIs Canada retail sales ECB lending bank lending survey EU consumer confidence Germanys Ifo business sentiment UK public finance data South Korea and Taiwan trade data and GDP and inflation prints from a number of Lat Ams largest economies among other reports. Well also get"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947114052477690116) 2025-07-21 01:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1969 engagements "Earnings will remain heavy but ease off a touch Thurs with XX SPX reporters of which four are $100bn in market cap (BX HON UNP INTC (highest to lowest market caps))"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948166236371902970) 2025-07-23 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1728 engagements "2Q earnings season will roll on Wed with another XX SPX reports (seven $100bn in market cap (JNJ BAC ASML MS GS PGR PLD (in order of market cap)). Not sure why BoA didnt have ASML on their list"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945267132549488910) 2025-07-15 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3459 engagements "Its a lighter week on the US economic calendar with the headliners flash PMIs new and existing home sales durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. Well also get leading and coincident indicators (the latter are more important even though the former get the headlines) the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (has a good correlation with GDP) some more regional bank PMIs and the other weekly reports (mortgage applications and petroleum and nat gas inventories)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947084106589724871) 2025-07-21 00:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1281 engagements "ICI data on money market flows saw a +$42.1bn inflow in the week through Dec 31st bringing total 2024 flows to +$962bn (after $1.15tn in 2023) with total MMF assets ending the year at $6.85tn a record high. Both institutional (+$23.3bn) and retail (+$18.8bn) saw healthy inflows for a 2nd wk. In terms of totals XX% is institutional XX% retail"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1875637092618772591) 2025-01-04 20:15:05 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements "In a sign of the times Goldman adds a "Speculative Trading Indicator" constructed from trading volumes "of US public equity dollar trading value attributable to X unprofitable stocks X penny stocks and X stocks with EV/sales multiples greater than 10x". Unsurprisingly they find it shows a recent increase in high-risk activity within the US equity market. Specifically during the past month the share of trading activity taking place in each of those three groups of stocks has ranked in the top quintile of activity since 1990"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948695976455098665) 2025-07-25 10:45:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 17K engagements "BoA (who as a reminder was just a tenth high for 1Q XX GDP vs the 1st estimate right on for 4Q XX GDP & two tenths high for 3Q) dropped their 2Q GDP tracker one tenth to XXX% as of Thursday but remember they had very high expectations for the retail sales report which was quite strong but not that strong and we had some negative revisions to prior months. Otherwise they also nit picked industrial production saying the gain in biz equipment wasnt up to their expectations offset somewhat by higher than expected inventories (which increase GDP)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947008355714945393) 2025-07-20 18:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1172 engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $INTC $DECK $BYD $VRSN $NEM $SAM $EW $MHK $FIX $COUR"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948506679160508478) 2025-07-24 22:12:48 UTC 12.4K followers, 2879 engagements "BoA (Hartnett): the return of US exceptionalism has not coincided with return of US dollar bullquite the opposite; $DXY depreciating further to below XX would be confirmation asset allocators need to execute phase II of dollar debasement.up allocation to commodities & emerging markets (phase I was gold/crypto)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949439630014902669) 2025-07-27 12:00:01 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements "Given the current environment a nice Fed primer from JPM's Feroli: Fed interest rate policy is set by the #FOMC which is made up of twelve people: the seven members of the Feds Board of Governors based in WashingtonDC the president of the NY Fed and an annually rotating group of four of the XX remaining regional reserve bank presidents. The seven members of the Board of Governors are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. A full term is XX years with one term beginning every two years on even-numbered years. A member who fills an unexpired portion of a term may be reappointed"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946958276802871526) 2025-07-20 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1224 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $NFLX $CVX $HES $SRPT $UNP $NSC $MMM $AXP $IBKR $SLB $SCHW $COIN $CRCL $HOOD $GLXY $BMNR $HBAN $WAL $GSK $RBGLY $META $ALV $RF"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946189244994642326) 2025-07-18 12:44:09 UTC 12.4K followers, 2166 engagements "Goldman: Total inflows of humanitarian and other immigrants remained stable at an annualized pace of 0.3mn in May and June. But total outflows continued to rise reaching an annualized pace of 0.7mn in June driven by both voluntary departures and deportations. While the number of deportations has risen noticeably since the beginning of this year and is now moderately above the 0.4mn seen during the first Trump administration we expect legal and capacity constraints to limit further increases"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947718287162314765) 2025-07-22 18:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 3585 engagements "BoA (Hartnett): 30yr bond yields eyeing "jailbreak" levels (UK XXX% US XXX% Japan 3.2%). no new highs in yields & MOVE index stays around XX = risk on new highs in bond yields & MOVE index XXX = risk off"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946174361087422671) 2025-07-18 11:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2094 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $SBUX $AES $UNH $SEDG $MBLY $WPP $BE $UNCRY $CRBZY $VRNA $JPM $AAPL $OMC $IPG $ENPH $FCX $PENG $RYTM"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942927308957900823) 2025-07-09 12:42:22 UTC 12.4K followers, 1928 engagements "BoA (Hartnett): Historic examples of central bank governor dismissals sparse but always driven by policy conflict over rates currencies or corruption. In every case dismissal coincided with sharp FX declines"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946595888253866389) 2025-07-19 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 8156 engagements "BBG: The first half saw JP Morgan's market value surpass that of its three largest competitors BofA Citigroup and Wells Fargo combined. It racked up $XX billion of profit in that period more than double its closest rival and widened its lead over Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley in investment-banking revenue. $JPM"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945574163885826295) 2025-07-16 20:00:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 1127 engagements "BBG: Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says that from a technical point of view he doesn't see "frothiness" when looking down-cap from the heavy-weights in the S&P XXX and Nasdaq indices. We believe that this bull market is broadening out in terms of participation he said. He points to the NYSE advance-decline line a popular indicator that tracks the number of securities rising minus the number falling on the exchange each day which is hitting fresh highs"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948473007363576296) 2025-07-24 19:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1385 engagements "In Europe the benchmark #STOXX XXX is up X% as of XXXX ET encouraged by the potential for a EU/US trade deal following the Japan/US deal announced Tuesday moving towards the top of its range since early May. Major European indices are trading solidy higher Germany's DAX: +0.6% U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5% France's CAC 40: +1.0% Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.3% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Despite raised hopes for an EU trade deal the European Union has readied plans to quickly hit the US with XX% tariffs on some XXX billion ($117 billion) worth of goods in the"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948002827915104572) 2025-07-23 12:50:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 1761 engagements "Markets Update - 7/23/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948148429894623729) 2025-07-23 22:29:15 UTC 12.5K followers, 4167 engagements "Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also highest close since Oct '21. The index "jumped XXX% on Wednesday topping a previous year-to-date high hit on March XX. Kuaishou Technology Baidu Inc. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the top performers in the gauge. Hong Kongs benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 1.6%. boosted by easing Sino-American trade tensions and gains in heavyweight tech shares." "Investors are also looking to the countrys Politburo meeting later this month to set the tone for policy measures in the second half of the year. Markets have reacted positively to recent moves by"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947995855279022311) 2025-07-23 12:22:58 UTC 12.5K followers, 2301 engagements "BBG: Options trading is pointing to more losses for the $USD next week with a gauge of risk reversals signaling declines for the week and coming months. With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powells position seemingly secure the dollar may find near-term support. But the greenbacks downtrend remains firmly in place with eventual rate cuts poised to supplant the political risk premium as the dominant headwind. - Brendan Fagan Macro Strategist Markets Live"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949117505370550312) 2025-07-26 14:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1686 engagements "Nasdaq positive volume a similar story going from an excellent XXXX% Tuesday considering the -XXXX% loss in the index to XXXX% today. And the weaker positive volume was despite even higher penny/meme stock volumes (I have added clear short squeezes to the list which today included DNUT (but excluding OPEN which I have treated separately thus far) in addition to the sub $X stocks) accounted for XX of the top XX stocks (not including OPEN) by volume (up from X Tuesday X Monday and X Friday) and the total volume in those stocks came in at 3.3bn up from 2.2bn Tues & 2.6bn on Monday or a huge"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948131507412889835) 2025-07-23 21:22:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 4778 engagements "US equity indices started modestly higher and traded with an upward bias today again led by small caps with the RUT finishing up +1.5%. Nasdaq trailed up +0.6% ahead of GOOG TSLA IBM earnings after the close"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948112693891596344) 2025-07-23 20:07:15 UTC 12.4K followers, 1925 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $TSLA $GEO $CXW $MOH $SEDG $STZ $WNS $CGEMY $SHEL $MGM $AAPL $NSANY $NFLX $WOLF"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942214034184343687) 2025-07-07 13:28:04 UTC 12.4K followers, 1929 engagements "The uncertainty surrounding Ishiba's future (and potential increased gov't spending) along with the finalizing of a US/Japan trade deal and BoJ Deputy Gov Uchida saying the deal means "likelihood has risen" for a rate hike all pressuring Japan's JGB sovereign bond market with a 40-yr bond auction today seeing its weakest demand since 2011. The bid-to-cover ratio a measure of demand came in at XXXXX compared to XXXXX at the previous auction. The bonds yielded XXXXX% the highest on record. Bond yields Wednesday rose across the curve"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947994682421649790) 2025-07-23 12:18:18 UTC 12.4K followers, 1353 engagements "Earnings are expected to be the star of the show Wed with our heaviest day of the week w/36 SPX reporters of which eleven are $100bn in market cap including two of the Mag-7 in GOOG/GOOGL & TSLA (the others are IBM TMUS NBOW T GEV NEE TMO BSX & APH (highest to lowest market caps) and CME is right there at $99bn)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947803847789056340) 2025-07-22 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2474 engagements ""The recent rise in speculative trading activity has accompanied one of the sharpest short squeezes on record. Since early April through July 24th the GS Most Short basket (GSCBMSAL) has rallied by over XX% outperforming the equal-weight S&P XXX by roughly XX pp. During the last XX years concentrated shorts have rallied more sharply only in 1999-2000 and 2020-2021 which are also the only periods in recent decades when speculative trading activity has exceeded current levels.""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949449692544377303) 2025-07-27 12:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1654 engagements "BoA's Hartnett: Bubble VIBBE's Bubble brewing in US equity leadership. Watch the VIBBE's (Valuation Inflation Bonds Breadth Exponential price moves). He says "Jailbreaks" are $SOX6k $MAGS $XX $BKX $XXX but "biggest tell would be stocks totally ignoring a rise in inflation expectations & bond yields to new highs". "ultimately proper bubble always ended by jump in bond yields & real yields (if proper bubble next XX months bond yields rise until AI/Big Tech customers squeal)""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946170589355327721) 2025-07-18 11:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 9031 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $RUN $FSLR $ENPH $DDOG $JPM $GS $BAC $SHAK $VRT $KEY $COIN $CC $UNCRY $GLNCY $NVS $POAHY $LVMY $AAPL $META $AMZN $XOM $HON"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942566142700302824) 2025-07-08 12:47:14 UTC 12.4K followers, 1995 engagements "MarketWatch: More U.S. homes sold last year were bought by people age XX and over than by people under age XX according to Jim Reid head of macroeconomic and thematic research at Deutsche Bank Research. "In fact XX% of homes were purchased by those aged XX and over" Reid wrote in a Monday client note. Messaging from the Trump administration has been "mixed" when it comes to which segments of the population it plans to prioritize Reid said noting that high rates and elevated home prices are stalling the typical "handoff" of property to younger generations"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947728350321250403) 2025-07-22 18:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements "DB also has seen substantial buying from CTAs in US equities the past two weeks (although sees overall positioning as not stretched) and CTAs remain full of foreign equities: CTAs continued to increase their overall equity longs taking it to the highest in XX months (90th percentile) mostly driven by elevated positioning outside the US. Within the US they increased longs in the S&P XXX (57th percentile from 26th two weeks ago) and in the Nasdaq XXX (66th percentile from 30th) but remained modestly short the Russell 2000 (32nd percentile from 7th percentile two weeks ago)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947360929839988820) 2025-07-21 18:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1884 engagements "Goldman: The investor risk appetite that has boosted speculative trading activity has also contributed to the recent upturn in equity capital markets activity. The median US IPO in June rose by XX% in its first trading day the best month since early 2024 and a top decile return relative to the past X decades"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949102404437422084) 2025-07-26 13:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1161 engagements "In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index shot +2% higher to the best close since June 2021 following the Japan/US trade deal announced Tuesday. Major regional equity indices also ended mostly higher led by Japan's Nikkei (+3.5%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+1.6%) pushed to the highest close since Oct '21 as did the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. Japan's Nikkei: +3.5% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.6% China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH India's Sensex: +0.7% South Korea's Kospi: +0.4% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Trump on social media"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948006452968190257) 2025-07-23 13:05:05 UTC 12.4K followers, 2116 engagements "As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are again mixed with large cap indices little changed while the Russell 2000 is up modestly premarket after its worst session in over a week Thursday. No data or other economic events scheduled later this morning or afternoon. Elsewhere bond yields are edging higher again and the dollar is as well. Crude and nat gas are also modestly higher while gold bitcoin and copper are lower. $SPX +0.1% $NDX UNCH $RUT +0.4%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948736127998828683) 2025-07-25 13:24:33 UTC 12.5K followers, 1372 engagements "MarketWatch: Data from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage shows that quantitative strategies are suffering their worst drawdown since the end of 2023. So-called systematic managers (that trade through Goldman) have accumulated a XXX% loss since the beginning of June to take their year-to-date performance down to a still positive XXX% on the year. The bank's analysts attribute the decline to a momentum sell-off a rally in high-beta and high-volatility companies and some unwinding of crowded trades. Bruno Schneller managing partner at Erlen Capital Management a Swiss asset manager says recent moves"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948065321803202664) 2025-07-23 16:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 9562 engagements "MarketWatch: Morgan Stanley says "the pace of the rally is slowing" with "retail demand for US equities . falling from a pace of $3.5bn/day at the start of the month to $1.5bn/day now." In addition they expect "the systematic bid to halve to $2.5bn per day by the end of the month" while "a high share of companies" remain in their buyback blackout as "1H July seasonal equity strength typically weakens through from now through August." (see previous posts on this). While they see a short-term bull case if "HFs still need to buy into the rally" their focus is on the fact that "passive inflows"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946152970451595494) 2025-07-18 10:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1989 engagements "ICI data on money market flows saw a +$54.7bn inflow in the week through Dec 24th bringing YTD flows to +$920bn (after $1.15tn in 2023) with total MMF assets at $6.81tn a record high. Both institutional (+$37.5bn) and retail (+$17.2bn) saw healthy inflows. In terms of totals XX% is institutional XX% retail"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1873024860043067665) 2024-12-28 15:15:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947778438556729845) 2025-07-22 21:59:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 3115 engagements "But over the next 1-mth things are now very asymmetric to the upside with +$45bn SPX to buy on an up tape vs just -$3bn to sell on a down tape (global equities would see much more selling by their estimates). -Flat tape: +$3bn to buy (-$59m SPX to sell) -Up tape: +$92bn to buy (+$45bn SPX to buy) -Down tape: -$86bn to sell (-$3bn SPX to sell)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1901944167674036259) 2025-03-18 10:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3857 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $ALK $XYZ $PINS $DLTR $TGT $DPZ $CLF $VZ $SRPT $IVZ $QQQ $MSFT $RYAAY $DYNX $ROP"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947274577320554702) 2025-07-21 12:36:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 2255 engagements "2Q GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed (whose GDP tracker was right in line in its 3Q & 4Q XX first ests of GDP (and just a tenth off for 2Q) but who was -XXX% too low for 1Q 25) falls to XXXX% from XXX% now the least since May 27th with minor adjustments lower to many components led by net exports and consumption (both around a tenth in terms of their contribution: the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from XXX percent to XXX percent. Here's the new makeup of the GDP contributions (and changes from the last release July 9th): Net exports = +3.31%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945890993561301494) 2025-07-17 16:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1459 engagements "BBG reports that a hold by the ECB in September now looks like the baseline according to "people familiar with the matter." President Christine Lagarde on Thursday said she and her colleagues are now in a wait-and-see mode with inflation at the X% goal and the economy performing in line with or better than expectations. Following those comments markets pared bets on a September rate cut. They now put the chance of such a move at about XX% versus XX% before Lagarde spoke. Mark Wall chief European economist at Deutsche Bank suggested the ECBs easing cycle may now be over. Markets are not far"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949047041633460327) 2025-07-26 10:00:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements "@myalphaport6688 Well buy the dip has been the place to be since the pandemic so retail has done well. Hedge funds have made money but not as much as retail. Institutions a little worse. Corporates have been steady buyers and have gotten better about buying more in declines"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948123309549203667) 2025-07-23 20:49:26 UTC 12.4K followers, XX engagements "$CHTR Shares of Charter Communications plunged XX% on Friday putting the stock on pace for its worst day ever after the company reported losing 117000 broadband and 80000 video subscribers in the second quarter"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948833129692852289) 2025-07-25 19:50:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1133 engagements "BoA: Last week saw the largest selling of $EUR/USD this year with "the lack of Real Money $USD supply raising risks of a summer USD rally." $DXY"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947678018404847962) 2025-07-22 15:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1053 engagements "As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are indicated modestly higher (as theyve been every session this week) on a less newsy overnight highlighted by Fed Gov Waller calling for a rate cut at the end of the month with the SPX on track for the 3rd weekly gain in the last X weeks aided by overall strong corporate earnings. Later this morning well get preliminary July UMich consumer sentiment. Elsewhere bond yields are edging lower and the dollar is falling back from 3-week highs. Perhaps aided by that commodities are broadly higher with crude gold copper and nat gas all up. Bitcoin is"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946196517452497307) 2025-07-18 13:13:03 UTC 12.4K followers, 14.7K engagements "Goldman (Garett): S&P Top of Book liquidity stands at $9.83mm as of Tues's close. This is 8x off the April lows of $1.1mm and now XX% above the YTD average of $7.66mm. Improved liquidity = market healing. This signals the ability to transfer risk quickly which is the name of the game in these conditions"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1922976252706652615) 2025-05-15 11:24:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1193 engagements "JPM: Market liquidity conditions have seen notable improvement for US Equities. They also note that "low realized macro volatility has helped to induce low market volatility in conjunction with other factors such as retail investors and corporate buybacks continuing to act as a backstop to drawdowns in Equities as well as economic and financial leverage overall remaining relatively contained and thus far not served to amplify these shocks.""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948412609998266745) 2025-07-24 15:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1079 engagements "Goldman (Hatzius): We estimate that a XX% US tariff on imports from Europe would shave XXX% off Euro area GDP by the end of 2026 (relative to the impact of our baseline assumption of 15%). this means that the risks to our Euro area growth and interest rate forecasts are tilted to the downside. Outside of tariffs however we are cautiously optimistic on Euro area growth with a cyclical pickup in Germany on the back of the fiscal expansion and continued strength in Spain. The flip side is that the ECB easing cycle is probably ending although we still expect one last cut to XXXX% in September"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947952328100704659) 2025-07-23 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1275 engagements "BoA (Hartnett): bears position for breakdown via defensive healthcare staples utilities (now just XX% of S&P XXX index lowest since 2000)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947620136896368776) 2025-07-22 11:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 12.9K engagements "Goldman: Recent US dollar weakness is a tailwind to S&P XXX EPS but a smaller factor than many investors assume. The S&P XXX in aggregate generates XX% of its revenues overseas roughly unchanged relative to last year. In our macro model a XX% weakening of the US dollar is associated with a boost of roughly 2-3% to S&P XXX EPS all else equal. and investors typically do not reward FX-driven sales beats the way they reward constant-currency beats (Exhibit 5)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949429559893356576) 2025-07-27 11:20:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 5539 engagements "BoA on EPFR flows week through Wed: Bonds: $25.9bn inflow biggest since Jun20 ($25.9bn) across the board inflows (IG $10.3bn EM debt $5.7bn Treasuries $3.9bn HY bonds $2.4bn)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948745405212016796) 2025-07-25 14:01:25 UTC 12.4K followers, 1425 engagements "Markets Update - 7/18/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946333850973475009) 2025-07-18 22:18:45 UTC 12.4K followers, 3341 engagements "$ITB On the back of a +16% gain in the largest homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. $DHI as well as a +12% gain in PulteGroup Inc. $PHM after earnings the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF $ITB is up nearly +8% it's best day since Nov '22 to a 5-mth high. "Many of the biggest builders in the country continue to surprise Wall Street to the upside with how well they are running their businesses in this environment John Burns CEO of John Burns Research and Consulting told MarketWatch. In other words the results werent as bad as investors were expecting namely gross margins and the expectations around"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947746469819388403) 2025-07-22 19:52:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1098 engagements "MS estimates that there will need to be $2.9tn of global data center spend through 2028 including hardware and infrastructure. By 2028 data center spend alone ($900bn) will roughly equal 2024 total SPX cap ex spend ($950bn). They estimate about ($1.4tn) will be financed by hyperscaler cash flows with the remainder ($1.5tn) needing to be financed through credit markets"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948348688868237732) 2025-07-24 11:45:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2602 engagements "After hitting what I called concerning levels Apr 16th at $54bn the least since 2021 RRP had built back up to around $150bn and remained there outside of May month-end when we saw the typical month end jump as banks shrink their reported balance sheets at quarter/month-end when they have to report their asset mix to regulators (RRP doesnt count against their regulatory ratios while cash & T-Bills do). I said I would expect this to come back down and it did but as I noted two weeks ago we should expect to see these same month-end dynamics (which is a little more at quarter end) as move to June"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942272400004898850) 2025-07-07 17:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3956 engagements "MarketWatch: Alex Manzara at R.J. O'Brien makes the point that even if the Trump administration is successful in getting a more pliant Fed there's still another issue in its quest to lower mortgage rates. The spread between the 10-year note and 30-year mortgage rates has increased from about XXX basis points between 2017 and 2019 to XXX basis points now. That's as the White House is contemplating freeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government control -- a move that could potentially send the spread still higher. "If Fannie and Freddie are privatized it's likely the market will demand"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948453126115049592) 2025-07-24 18:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1336 engagements "BoA (who as a reminder was just a tenth high for 1Q XX GDP vs the 1st estimate right on for 4Q XX GDP & two tenths high for 3Q) left their 2Q GDP tracker at XXX% as of Thursday despite a small downgrade after the home sales reports"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949469573817770008) 2025-07-27 13:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GM $LMT $KO $NXPI $STLD $MEDP $CSX $NSC $DHI $PHM $NOC $ZION $ACI $AGYS $CALX $AZN $SNY $QS $SRPT $PMI $SHW"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947639493697188146) 2025-07-22 12:46:55 UTC 12.4K followers, 2936 engagements "Berkshire cuts its stakes in several financials in 4Q including nearly three-quarters of its position in Citigroup selling 40.6mn shares worth more than $2.4bn 95mn shares of Bank of America (taking its share down to XXX% from XX% in July) and 1.7mn shares of Capital One (20% of its position). Other smaller sales included Ulta Beauty Charter Communications Louisiana-Pacific Nu Holdings and S&P XXX ETF's $VOO and $SPY. "The company invested in just one new stock in the fourth quarter buying $1.2bn worth of shares of Modelo beermaker Constellation Brands." It also though added to stakes in"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1890747902508573069) 2025-02-15 13:00:03 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DAL $EWZ $KLG $AMD $TREX $BYRN $PTC $HELE $BX $WPP $MP $UAL $AAL $ALK $LUV $ROKU $RARE $MREO $AMD $CAG"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1943292935908249805) 2025-07-10 12:55:15 UTC 12.4K followers, 2458 engagements "For now shares have moved back to around unchanged levels. Here's CNBC's link for their updates as they compile the numbers. Cloud revenues and traffic acquisition costs also above expectations. $GOOG"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948114710634926338) 2025-07-23 20:15:15 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements "Goldman: Even a one-time price increase will eat into real income at a time when consumer spending trends already look shaky. Although nominal core retail sales rebounded in June we estimate that real personal consumption has now stagnated on net for six months which rarely happens outside of recession. Housing activity has also slowed sharply with overall construction spending falling faster over the past year than at any time since the post-2008 housing bust. The weakness in consumption and housing has pushed down our tracking estimate for H1 real GDP growth to XXX% about a percentage point"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948785315130605949) 2025-07-25 16:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2492 engagements "2Q GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed (whose GDP tracker was right in line in its 3Q & 4Q XX first ests of GDP (and just a tenth off for 2Q) but who was -XXX% too low for 1Q 25) edges down slightly to XXXX% the least since May 27th with a minor adjustment lower to residential investment as despite the beat on total starts the more economically impactful single-family starts fell more than expected: the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -XXX percent to -XXX percent Here's the new makeup of the GDP contributions (and changes from the last release"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946212277969100816) 2025-07-18 14:15:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 1640 engagements "Goldman: Systematic macro global equity length has resumed and continues to gradually push higher amidst the positive trend signals and non elevated or decreasing volatility. We estimate $25bn of global equity buying in the last 1-week $31bn in the upcoming 1-week and $132bn in the next 1-month cumulative in the baseline scenario. Of this monthly figure roughly $100bn is expected to be from CTA/tend followers and the remainder from the vol-based investors (VA vol control and risk parity style). And across regions $48bn or XX% of that monthly global figure is expected to be in US markets"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1944391361836581048) 2025-07-13 13:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1540 engagements "New home supply (new homes for sale) moved up +6k to 511k the highest since Oct 2007 showing little signs of peaking. And with the weakness in sales the months of supply at the current sales rate is now up to XXX the most since Sep XX well above the normal range of 4-6 months"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948422927629586846) 2025-07-24 16:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1433 engagements "Along the same lines CNBC reports that The Invesco S&P XXX High Beta ETF ( $SPHB) on Monday hit a new intraday all-time high going back to its inception in 2011. Stocks leading the ETF include Albemarle Super Micro ON Semi Teradyne CrowdStrike Deckers Freeport McMoRan. All are up more than 2%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947330730109043197) 2025-07-21 16:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2255 engagements "Nearly all of our client conversations this week are about when to take the other side of the moves in most speculative area of the market such as non-profitable tech stocks Faris Mourad Goldmans vice president of the US custom baskets team wrote in a note to clients. We have seen less talk and more action as the week has progressed and we are noticing clients getting comfortable shorting at these levels. After surging some XX% from its mid-April lows the banks basket tracking unprofitable tech stocks has slipped over the last two days giving back more than 3%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949107444765855847) 2025-07-26 14:00:02 UTC 12.5K followers, 9970 engagements "BBG story on the widening gap b/w 2025 & 2026 rate cut bets since April now around 76bps from 25bps. Whoever comes in next that person is going to have a bias towards lowering rates said Ed Al-Hussainy global rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle. In addition the economy is less likely to be resilient next year opening the door for more policy easing he said"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948070606899130446) 2025-07-23 17:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1550 engagements "As noted at the start of the week its a light calendar for US economic data this week but Thursday is the one busy day with flash PMIs new home sales Chicago National Activity Indes and weekly jobless claims. The Fed will remain in their blackout. Well get a 10yr TIPS reopening (so far we havent had a TIPS auction get media coverage and nobody paid any attention to todays 20yr auction so Id imagine you can ignore this one). Earnings will remain heavy with XX SPX reporters of which four are $100bn in market cap (BX HON UNP INTC (highest to lowest market caps)). EX US DM also our busiest day"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948171270597566906) 2025-07-24 00:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2821 engagements "MarketWatch: Mark Newton head of technical strategy at Fundstrat says the VIX looks to be close to bottoming and likely could trend higher in August. "Overall I feel that VIX likely can rise to the mid-20s and possibly mid-30s by October meaning that implied volatility at current levels is currently cheap in my view" says Newton in a note published late Tuesday. Consequently any decline in the VIX in coming weeks may represent an opportunity to buy cheap volatility on a 2-3 month timeframe he adds. "Bottom line any move down to 14-15.50 would signal an appealing risk/reward opportunity for"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948046699706105861) 2025-07-23 15:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2272 engagements "BBG: The S&P XXX hasn't posted a X% up or down day since late June (17 sessions) the longest streak since December's 20-session streak. An old saying on Wall Street is Never short a dull market said Dave Lutz equity sales trader and macro strategist at Jonestrading. History shows quiet markets tend to drift upward"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947272650226606581) 2025-07-21 12:29:13 UTC 12.4K followers, 9350 engagements "Despite the surge in global bond yields a net X% expect of GFMS respondents see global CPI to be higher in XX months time down 7ppt MoM. "FMS inflation expectations have dropped 50ppt since April the biggest 3-month decline since Jun22.""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945415610877239374) 2025-07-16 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1860 engagements "Earnings lighten up considerably Friday with just X SPX reporters of which none are $100bn in market cap (largest is HCA at $87bn)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948528371849462091) 2025-07-24 23:39:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2789 engagements "Initial jobless claims (SA) continue to remain tame in wk through July 12th edging back another -7k to 221k now down -29k from the highest level since October hit four weeks ago overall remaining in the range over the past yr just +34k above the 50-yr lows in Oct '23 (187k). Four-wk moving avg edges -6k to 230k (-4k y/y) down -15k from the highest since Aug XX from three weeks ago. This is consistent with the note X weeks ago that there have been modest moves higher in initial claims in early summer the past two years which eventually subsided. Continuing claims (SA) in wk through July 5th"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945825006904332349) 2025-07-17 12:36:47 UTC 12.4K followers, 2413 engagements "As always a nice collection of charts from @dailychartbook. Thought this one was interesting from @fernavid showing the % of stocks in the Russell 3000 (roughly all US equities) which have had a XX% move over the past XXX trading days (roughly a year). It's up to around XX% but it has gotten as high as XX% previously (perhaps unsurprisingly around bear markets)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948692202047373727) 2025-07-25 10:30:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 4426 engagements "Goldman (via ZeroHedge): having previously flaggedthe momentum rotation and extreme rally in high beta names and lower quality pockets of the market Goldman warns that "we may be moving towards later innings of the short covering given the magnitude of these moves." Historically there has only been X events where the bank's short interest pair had a higher monthly return in October of 2008 and January of 2021 and both cases had poor subsequent returns. However it is worth noting that the meme stock rally in 2021 caused more pain as the squeeze in the Goldman short pair was even more"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948715651712864690) 2025-07-25 12:03:11 UTC 12.5K followers, 1299 engagements "In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged higher +0.2% as it continues its recent chop a little below the highest levels since Sep XX hit two weeks ago. Major regional indices were mostly higher. Asian markets ended mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei +0.6% Hong Kong's Hang Seng -XXX% China's Shanghai Composite +0.4% India's Nifty -XXX% South Korea's Kospi +0.2% and Australia's All Ordinaries +0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Donald Trump said he would send letters to more than XXX countries notifying them their tariff rates could be XX% or XX% as he forges ahead"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945842967777866203) 2025-07-17 13:48:10 UTC 12.4K followers, 1453 engagements "@DigimonCBA Did I make it sound dramatic I was just trying to state that the average stock didn't participate much in the continued rally last week"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949216294210879914) 2025-07-26 21:12:33 UTC 12.5K followers, XX engagements "BBG: Firms such as Invesco Ltd. Fidelity International Ltd. and JPMorgan Asset Management are reinforcing bullish bets across technology shares from the US to Asia as well as on emerging-market assets. The high-octane wager is that while President Donald Trump is threatening to disrupt the economic order anew he will step back from the brink. People have really bought into this belief that there is a Trump put that if markets correct or if US interest rates go up Trump will back off as he did in April: that trade is on said Chang Hwan Sung a multi-asset portfolio manager in Invescos"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947649078193754340) 2025-07-22 13:25:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1083 engagements "June existing home sales fall back -XXX% m/m to a 9-mth low as they bump along at levels near the least since just after the GFC at 3.93mn at what I would imagine is the slowest pace for June since June 2009 (after the worst March April and May since then). Note as these are closings contracts were signed 1-3 mths earlier. Single-family sales were -X% m/m to 3.57mn +0.6% y/y while condo sales were unchanged m/m -XXX% y/y. Sales rose in the West but fell in the Northeast Midwest and South (the largest housing market). All though but the NE were up modestly from a year ago. "High mortgage rates"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948026303094858045) 2025-07-23 14:23:57 UTC 12.4K followers, 1650 engagements "$GOOG $GOOGL Alphabet shares jump in a $XX band following the release of earnings which showed beats across the board but that also includes cap ex (higher than expected)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948113554017546363) 2025-07-23 20:10:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 2305 engagements "Goldman estimates systematic macro global equity buyers added $30bn of net length last week ($67bn in the last X month) and will add another $42bn in the next X week ($107bn in the next one month in the baseline scenario) driven by CTA/trend followers. "Nearly $42bn or XX% of the global figure is expected to be in US markets.""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947355899267584282) 2025-07-21 18:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1442 engagements "We got the 3rd (and last) of this weeks #UST note auctions today w/$44bn in 7yrs. As a reminder we had good 2yr & 5yr auctions Tuesday & Wed with the latter seeing the highest foreign demand on record leading to the 2nd lowest dealer take up on record and with that backdrop the 7yr came through as the best of the bunch. Specifically the bid/cover came in at XXXX well above Aprils XXXX and the highest since December also a bit above the 6-mth avg of XXXX as like the with the 5yr we saw strong indirect (foreign) demand XXXX% up from in April XXXX% (which was the least since Dec '21) and above"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1928189194171535782) 2025-05-29 20:38:22 UTC 12.4K followers, 1781 engagements "BBG: Invesco sees medium-term opportunities in Korea due to optimism over the governments corporate-governance reforms. The nations benchmark Kospi index has already gained more than XX% this year making it one of the worlds best-performing major equity gauges"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947476482596769974) 2025-07-22 01:59:10 UTC 12.4K followers, 1403 engagements "With the #FOMC coming up on Wed rate cut pricing for 2025 remained near the least since February +1bps Friday to 44bps according to CMEs #Fedwatch tool (well below the 64bps July 2nd before the June NFP & from 92bps on May 1st (the peak this year was at 103bps on Apr 8th the low was 36bps Feb 11th)). The probability of a cut at this week's meeting is X% down from XX% pre-NFP (and from XX% at the start of May) while a cut by the following meeting (Sept) is XX% remaining a little above the lowest since February on Jul 17th (54%). It was XX% pre-NFP. Chances of X cuts this year is XX% (down from"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949187968356274532) 2025-07-26 19:20:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1116 engagements "Goldman (Kostin) notes that the weak dollar "tailwind" disproportionately aided the Mag-7. Our economists expect continued USD weakness boosting relative outperformance of international-facing stocks although Kostin also expects US economic growth to outpace most other major economies in both 2025 and 2026 which should provide a relative tailwind to domestic-facing firms"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948018261473231314) 2025-07-23 13:52:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1566 engagements "BoA: In FX the US Dollar declined again this week despite a pop higher in reaction to the strong US jobs report on Thursday. Our model suggests that CTAs still have $USD shorts vs $EUR $GBP $MXN and $CAD. In other currencies $JPY and $AUD longs are less stretched with JPY selling expected next week following this weeks USD strengthening vs JPY"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942154120049414241) 2025-07-07 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1080 engagements "Interesting note from @Chartfest1's always good daily post on The Street: I saw a chart of the ETF (BUZZ) (VanEck Social Sentiment ETF) in BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinskys excellent missive Thursday. Wowee. That is some move since June and now it has begun to go parabolic. Naturally this took me to the ratio of the (QQQ)'s to BUZZ and heres another wow: Look at how poorly the QQQs have done relative to BUZZ since April. Think about this we consider the QQQs to be the pinnacle of technology stocks yet they practically look like the healthcare stocks relative to the S&P when"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946973375479570689) 2025-07-20 16:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1596 engagements "Germany's closely watched Ifo index of biz sentiment improved in July for the 5th mth in the past X to the highest since May '24 boosted by the expectations component rising to the highest since Apr '23. A gauge of current conditions also continued its more modest rise to the best since since last July. Sentiment among German companies has improved somewhat Ifo President Clemens Fuest said Friday in a statement. There is the hope now that there will be a deal with the US and maybe also less uncertainty about how things will be going on and what tariffs will be Fuest later told Bloomberg TV."  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948725812741492786) 2025-07-25 12:43:33 UTC 12.5K followers, 1566 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $JPM $WFC $C $BLK $CRWV $ERIC $BK $ACI $STT $NVDA $TTD $SEDG $ENPH $NFG $AMD $AAPL $MP $UBER $BIDU $GOOG $BAM $ANSS"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945108941928538360) 2025-07-15 13:11:24 UTC 12.4K followers, 2196 engagements "BoA: Corporates sound more upbeat based on our NLP analysis after a steep drop in 1Q (outside of still miserable small caps Exhibit 59). We have yet to clamber back to pre-Liberation Day optimism but tariff uncertainty largely remains the scapegoat for near term caution. Long-term outlooks are very half-full - an uptick in project delays means pent-up spend down the road tariff inflation has been offset by pricing OpEx focus etc"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949484673048162764) 2025-07-27 14:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements "June new home sales edge higher after falling in May by the second most since Sep XX to slowest pace since Oct but at +0.6% to 627k it was well under the +4.3% expected to 650k keeping them at the bottom of their range since Jan XX. Regionally sales in the South (representing over XX% of all new home sales) were up +5.1% after falling in May by the most since July 2013 to the least since November XX. Sales also grew in the MW (+6.3%) but fell sharply in the NE (-27.6% to the slowest pace since Feb 23) and less sharply in the West (-8.4% to the least since Nov) Total sales are -XXX% y/y Note:"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948388084707402122) 2025-07-24 14:21:33 UTC 12.4K followers, 4464 engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TMUS $LVS $IBM $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $VKNG $MOH $URI"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948144026131325384) 2025-07-23 22:11:45 UTC 12.4K followers, 3194 engagements "Markets Update - 7/24/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948508035187368371) 2025-07-24 22:18:11 UTC 12.4K followers, 4033 engagements "Initial jobless claims (SA) continue to remain tame in wk through July 19th edging back another -4k to 217k now down -33k from the highest level since October hit five weeks ago overall remaining in the range over the past yr just +30k above the 50-yr lows in Oct '23 (187k). Four-wk moving avg edges -5k to 225k (-9k y/y) down -20k from the highest since Aug XX from four weeks ago. This is consistent with the note X weeks ago that there have been modest moves higher in initial claims in early summer the past two years which eventually subsided. Continuing claims (SA) in wk through July 12th"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948370249876734265) 2025-07-24 13:10:41 UTC 12.4K followers, 4052 engagements "As a result of the beats Factset says XXX% revenue growth is now expected for Q2 (+0.6% w/w) up from XXX% to start the quarter and up from XXX% in Q1. It would be the 19th straight quarter of growth"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949147702484521208) 2025-07-26 16:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1637 engagements "As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are modestly higher following the announcement yesterday of a US/Japan trade agreement and as corporate earnings reports continue to pour in. Later this morning well get existing home sales along with weekly EIA petroleum inventories. After the close well get earnings from GOOG & TSLA among others (CMG IBM etc.). Elsewhere bond yields are edging higher and the dollar is as well. Copper is also extending higher while crude gold bitcoin and nat gas are all lower. $SPX +0.4% $NDX +0.1% $RUT +0.6%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948008998688391224) 2025-07-23 13:15:12 UTC 12.5K followers, 1245 engagements "US equity indices started the day little changed at the large cap level but in the red for the DJIA & RUT and that's how they finished with a reverse performance from Wed (Nasdaq leading +0.2% RUT giving back yesterday's gains -1.4%)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948476653937561941) 2025-07-24 20:13:29 UTC 12.4K followers, 1156 engagements "The Week Ahead - 7/20/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947109387199238611) 2025-07-21 01:40:28 UTC 12.4K followers, 9733 engagements "BoA'S Hartnett says it is the "Year of the International" and might be time to "nibble at oversold US semiconductors and buy lagging #India (small caps -XX% since Sep24 peak - chart)" after "$3tn market cap loss to $15tn for 'Magnificent 7' (now 'Lagnificent 7') as market cap of Chinas 'Fab Four' of Baidu Alibaba Tencent Xiaomi doubles to $1.6tn; European equity gains not too far behind China in 2025;.next equity trade is weak US dollar trade""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1897977529488580839) 2025-03-07 11:48:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1316 engagements "In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up +0.3% Monday as it pushes to fresh nearly 4-yr highs. Major regional equity indices began the week on a mostly higher note as well while Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday. Japan's Nikkei: HOLIDAY Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.7% China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7% India's Sensex: +0.5% South Korea's Kospi: +0.7% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Japan is facing trade and political uncertainty after a historic defeat for the prime ministers ruling party. Shigeru Ishiba is trying to buy time for his"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947281264555245655) 2025-07-21 13:03:26 UTC 12.4K followers, 1518 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $HLT $HAS $T $COF $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP $RKT $NOK $ASML $MS $MCO $GEV $LII"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947999360307900837) 2025-07-23 12:36:54 UTC 12.5K followers, 2546 engagements "Were seeing an inflation market pricing a premium around the Fed independence risk said Meghan Swiber a US rates strategist at Bank of America. Ultimately if youre putting pressure on the Fed in an environment where unemployment is low and were still seeing inflation a far cry from the Feds target you ultimately have the market trading and perceiving more persistent upside risk to the inflation landscape. The nightmare scenario is the Fed loses its independence tariff inflation is big and the fiscal policy turns out to be more simulative ahead of mid-term election and its all happening at the"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947290465130500185) 2025-07-21 13:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2513 engagements "While Q2 so far is shaping up as another beat this quarter over a particularly low bar beaten down by tariff concerns things remain very much in flux until we get the Mag-7 (which start next week) given that their earnings growth is expected to be over 4x the rest of the SPX at XXXX% (vs 3.4%) according to Factset. That though is expected to narrow somewhat in coming quarters: analysts expect lower earnings growth for the Magnificent X companies over the next three quarters relative to Q2 2025. For Q3 2025 through Q1 2026 analysts are predicting earnings growth rates for these seven companies"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946530457312493769) 2025-07-19 11:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3127 engagements "Leveraged ETF AUM in the two largest single stock ETFs $TSLA and $NVDA both also moved higher last week with TSLA +$569mn to $8.5bn the highest since March while NVDA was +$486mn to $6.4bn the highest since Feb. 3rd place $MSTR though -$183mn to $3.1bn. $COIN moved back into the fourth spot just above $PLTR at $1.33b vs $1.21bn"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947627694968987915) 2025-07-22 12:00:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 2715 engagements "$CMG Chipotle shares down nearly -XX% adding to its -XX% slump YTD after cutting FY sales guidance for the second time this year to flat y/y. Despite a number of new offerings and promotions comp sales were -X% worse than expected and the second consecutive quarter of falling comps"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948122743775392187) 2025-07-23 20:47:11 UTC 12.4K followers, 1931 engagements "There could be a pause in the bull market in the short-term UBS head of U.S. equities David Lefkowitz said in a note to clients. President Trump continues to threaten higher tariffs and extend the timeline for reaching trade agreements. This is a damper on business investment decision-making and could also further push out the timing of Fed rate cuts. UBS said it holds a neutral view on U.S. equities for now which is not necessarily a negative stance but a cautious one due to trade risks. It appears that investors are already pricing in a substantial de-escalation in trade frictions UBS said."  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948737778461598024) 2025-07-25 13:31:06 UTC 12.5K followers, 1506 engagements "BoA (Hartnett): "widening gap between S&P XXX market cap ($50tn) & S&P XXX ex-Magnificent X market cap ($32tn); monopolies monopolizing returns $SPX up XX% YTD versus X% for SPX ex. XX largest stocks; both US & global equity breadth remain direwinners must keep winning to keep stealth correction under the hood.""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1870077942795252196) 2024-12-20 12:05:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements "BoA (Hartnett): Tale of the Tape: bank stocks YTD: Europe XX% UK XX% China XX% Japan XX% US 17%; banks best expression of 2025 flip from US to global fiscal excess; banks = risk-on until bond yields rise to levels that trigger lower banks; hasnt happened yet (Chart 5) but vigilantes set to pounce if 30-year yields in UK XXX% US XXX% Japan 3.2%; interest costs up to X% of UK GDP ($120bn) X% of US GDP ($1tn) X% of Japan GDP ($185bn)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948676850491822567) 2025-07-25 09:29:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1293 engagements "Goldman says they see a highly unusual discrepancy between the "the front month VIX future which is extremely elevated vs implied volatilityThe roll down is huge. We think a lot of this is due to the massive growth in the VIX ETN complex as retail investors pile in to these products - this essentially leads to the VIX market acting a bit more short gamma: selling more vol on days when vol is down and buying more vol on days vol is up to stay rebalanced. The conclusion here is that with VIX future at such an elevated level and roll down so steep as UX1 comes in more equity buying ensues"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947298090320265580) 2025-07-21 14:10:18 UTC 12.4K followers, 2954 engagements "For the week markets finished well off the spike lows from the Powell firing headlines but gains overall were moderate led by the Nasdaq's +1.5%. SPX was +0.6% RUT +0.2% DJIA -0.1%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946302589793861768) 2025-07-18 20:14:32 UTC 12.4K followers, 1717 engagements "We'll get a lighter start to what will be the second heaviest week of earnings reports next week with X SPX components of which just one is $100bn in market cap (VZ)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947074038687301901) 2025-07-20 23:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2150 engagements "BoA on CTA FX positioning: Last week we noted that CTA $EUR/USD longs were at risk of being unwound should the $USD continue its rally. However EUR rebounded this week leaving CTA triggers further away for the time being. Positioning is still stretched long in EUR as well as in $GBP and MXN"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949409438009344207) 2025-07-27 10:00:02 UTC 12.5K followers, 1201 engagements "BBG: Retail traders "plunked down some $XXX billion a day in foreign-exchange markets in the first six months of 2025 according to Finance Magnates Intelligence which collates data from several trading platforms. That figure is up XX% from a year ago Finance Magnates says echoing reports of jumps in volumes from eToro Interactive Brokers Tradu and FxPro. After excluding Japan where the market has become largely stable its up XX% and XXX% from five years earlier. Six hundred billion to be clear is small change in a market that rings up trading volumes of $XXX trillion on a typical day. And yet"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949054592437621160) 2025-07-26 10:30:01 UTC 12.5K followers, 1218 engagements "$CMG: Chipotle down nearly -XX% on pace for its worst day since Oct. XX 2017 when it fell 14.6%. If it closes at current levels it will be the lowest close since Jan 2024. Year to date its seen a decline of almost 25%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948467722246881368) 2025-07-24 19:38:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1004 engagements "MarketWatch: 0DTE options continue to grow now accounting for more than XX% of total daily activity for S&P XXX options according to the CBOE. While institutions certainly trade 0DTE retail traders are responsible for a growing share of overall volume according to Mandy Xu head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe. Xu said in a report published back in May estimating them at between XX% and XX% of S&P XXX 0DTE trading. Theyre selling options in a capped-risk way to generate some income Henry Schwartz vice president of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe told MarketWatch during an"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947959877583990983) 2025-07-23 10:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1016 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $INTC $PARA $CNC $DECK $CVNA $CHTR $PUMSY $LVMH $VWAPY $FIX $SAM $AON $HCA $PSX"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948731115553853625) 2025-07-25 13:04:38 UTC 12.5K followers, 2006 engagements "Markets Update - 7/25/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948873093805408699) 2025-07-25 22:28:48 UTC 12.5K followers, 8118 engagements "Earnings will continue to build Tuesday with XX SPX reporters of which nine are $100bn in market cap (KO PM RTX TXN ISRG COF DHR CB LMT (highest to lowest market caps))"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448666299765226) 2025-07-22 00:08:38 UTC 12.4K followers, 2392 engagements "$IBM the 3rd largest reporter today down -X% as software sales missed expectations even as they increased XX% y/y. Consulting which had been in a slump also inflected to a positive 3%. Infrastructure sales were +14% above expectations driven by the strongest initial launch of a mainframe product in IBMs history Chief Financial Officer Jim Kavanaugh said in an interview. Also note the stock coming in was up XX% for the year so in part a victim to perhaps too high expectations. IBM maintained its annual sales forecast of at least X% growth in constant currency. Free cash flow is projected to"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948121764103426119) 2025-07-23 20:43:17 UTC 12.4K followers, 2231 engagements "It wasn't just Opendoor though. Penny stock volumes (which I treat as sub $X so ex-Opendoor) accounted for X of the remaining XX stocks by volume and the total volume in those stocks came in at a huge 2.6bn or XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume up from XXXX% Friday. And if you add Opendoor which traded XXXX billion shares on its own they accounted for XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947399250435776792) 2025-07-21 20:52:16 UTC 12.5K followers, 7094 engagements "@tarun_kalra That one is definitely the most questionable. But it's nuanced a little. I think I put in another post but they just take the top XX and the median of that which I think can serve as an indicator of speculative engagement"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949203558248657308) 2025-07-26 20:21:57 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements "After some moderation in the goods trade balance in February March showed a return to a record goods trade deficit with an increase of $14bn (9.5%) bringing the deficit to $162bn well above the expected $145bn which will create a further drag on 1Q GDP. It is now up $59bn since Oct (65%). Imports were +5.0% (driven by a +27.5% jump in consumer goods) to $343bn while exports were up +1.2% (so a positive there) to $181bn (led by industrial supplies autos and food/feed/beverage)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1917202423908643327) 2025-04-29 13:00:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 1307 engagements "BoA notes on gamma positioning that as of Thursdays close SPX gamma was +$2.6bn (47th 1y %ile) a relatively modest figure. However a large portion of Thursdays gamma footprint is due to Julys 3rd Friday expiry (i.e. 18-Jul) which is now past. So BoA sees gamma as remaining relatively low but still positive which should have some marginal dampening impact on volatility but as of Thursday at least it saw a big wall that is perhaps what has kept SPX rallies from extending. It remains little changed on declines until around the 6150 but then builds. Again though this is all likely to change as"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947265047677616517) 2025-07-21 11:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 4025 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $NKE $TTD $CRMD $CORZQ $CRWV $IREN $CIFR $AVAV $APOG $AAPL $AMZN $NVDA $EL $RILY $CNCX $SMCI $MP $BA"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1938587381411512519) 2025-06-27 13:17:03 UTC 12.4K followers, 2234 engagements "BBG: While institutions hold roughly XX% of US money market assets XX% of the growth in MMF assets since March 2022 (the start of the Fed hiking cycle) has come from retail whose holdings rose from around $1.4tn to $2.9tn currently (right scale on the chart)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946276283295621217) 2025-07-18 18:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1681 engagements "MS says we can expect more volatility today with a bias for a down day. "when a large share of market cap reports in a day SPX absolute returns tend to be larger and slightly more negative than average.""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947974981398499542) 2025-07-23 11:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements "The 2yr yield more sensitive to #FOMC policy -4bps to XXXX% ending the week -2bps lower. It is -46bps below the Fed Funds midpoint so still calling for rate cuts but also up +15bps this month"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946656286239601005) 2025-07-19 19:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1201 engagements "In contrast to a longer term reaction to earnings reports (two days prior to two days after) which Factset says have been better than 5-yr avgs BBG says looking just the next XX hours shows earnings misses seeing the worst performance since 3Q '22 at -5.1%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946953243357040667) 2025-07-20 15:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2108 engagements "BBG US dollar index's worst week of the month. $USD"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948822045631861021) 2025-07-25 19:05:57 UTC 12.5K followers, 2694 engagements "BoA (who as a reminder was just a tenth high for 1Q XX GDP vs the 1st estimate right on for 4Q XX GDP & two tenths high for 3Q) dropped their 2Q GDP tracker one tenth to XXX% as of Thursday but remember they had very high expectations for the retail sales report which was quite strong just not that strong. Otherwise they also nitpicked industrial production saying the gain in biz equipment wasnt up to their expectations which was offset by higher-than-expected inventories (higher inventories increase GDP)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946600922458583329) 2025-07-19 16:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1053 engagements "Given the price performance in SPAC's it's probably not surprising that 2Q saw the most SPAC capital raises since 1Q 2022. XX offerings raised a total of $X billion in the quarter for a 1H total of $XX billion"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949152484389199915) 2025-07-26 16:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1896 engagements "NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) which improved considerably Tuesday to XXXX% the best in nearly a month and 2nd best in nearly two months edged back to XXXX% despite a stronger index performance at XXXX% vs +0.70% Tues so a bit of a negative divergence there"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948129746241425480) 2025-07-23 21:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3895 engagements "Through Thursday weve had XX% of SPX earnings in for Q2 according to Factset still a bit early for broad takeaways but FWIW the beat rate has remained elevated at XX% in line with the low bar I (and many others) mentioned ahead of the earnings season above 1Qs XX% the 5-yr avg of XX% and 10-yr avg of XX% but the downside is earnings are coming in on average just +6.1% above estimates below the +8.3% 1Q the 5-yr avg of XXX% and the 10-yr avg of 6.9%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949062147679604868) 2025-07-26 11:00:02 UTC 12.5K followers, 3710 engagements "Japan's Jul flash PMI remains unchanged at XXXX as an improvement in services (53.5 from 51.7) offset an unexpected drop in manufacturing back into contraction (48.8 from XXXX in June (50.2 exp'd)). "Latest Flash PMI data signalled a further modest increase in overall private sector business activity across Japan during July. However this masked divergent underlying trends with stronger growth across the service industry contrasting with a fresh fall in factory output. At the same time overall employment and new business rose only marginally across the private sector as a whole. Business"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948188816939852248) 2025-07-24 01:09:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 2449 engagements "Notably we closed today below the 5890 CTA trigger from Goldman's Friday note. As a reminder even in a flat tape they were modeled as -$48bn sellers of global equities"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1896723264686465487) 2025-03-04 00:44:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1371 engagements "Two different defense stocks two very different performances since May 1st. $LMT Lockheed Martin hitting a new 52-week low on the back of the companys second-quarter revenue miss. Shares were down over -X% putting its decline since May 1st at almost -13%. By contrast shares of $NOC Northrop Grumman were trading at all-time highs dating back to the Northrop Aircraft and Grumman Aerospace merger in 1994. That stock has surged more than +16% since May 1st"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947740933555958123) 2025-07-22 19:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2776 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GPRO $DNUT $DOW $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $HON $AAL $AEO $TMUS $LVS $IBM $VKNG $MOH $DB $BX $LHX"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948367782325727728) 2025-07-24 13:00:52 UTC 12.5K followers, 2200 engagements "I noted that BoA says their corporate clients are starting to reaccelerate their buying (+$1.2bn last week from +$0.9bn the prior week and +$0.6bn the week before that) which is consistent with Goldman's note to start the week that we passed the max buyback blackout last week (after the financials reported) and starting this week were at around XX% having exited. By the end of next week we'll be XX% out and the following week over 90%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947978750261666253) 2025-07-23 11:15:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2121 engagements "With the cost of protection against a XX% SPX decline over the next month versus a XX% gain at the lowest level since January trading desks at firms including Goldman Sachs JPM BofA and Citadel Securities are telling clients to buy cheap hedges against potential losses. If you are nervous the market is making it very easy to rent hedges Goldmans trading desk wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Its time to buy volatility BofA Securities Inc.s John Tully wrote to clients on Monday noting that the VIX Index historically tends to hit the lowest level of the year in July. He recommends clients"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948401722616905846) 2025-07-24 15:15:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 1663 engagements "BoA: The BofA Corporate Misery Indicator a macro gauge of the profit cycle remained near zero but still positive in 2Q suggesting a tough operating environment for corporates. Analysts are penciling in net margins falling QoQ to XXXX% in 2Q (vs. XXXX% in 1Q)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947986300599976204) 2025-07-23 11:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1113 engagements "MarketWatch: Barclays strategists led by Venu Krishna have their own metric for retail sentiment something called the equity euphoria index which measures the percentage of stocks in euphoric territory and is now surging toward the highest levels of the year. Its a proprietary measure culled from the options market and could be more reflective of market conditions given the way retail investors now use zero-day-to-expiration and other aggressive derivative products. Strategists at the bank said the dynamic of individual stocks both increasing in price and in volatility is a hallmark of upside"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948409086481244571) 2025-07-24 15:45:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1295 engagements "From the always great @dailychartbook nightly email (more info at the link at the bottom) Ned Davis Research has a nice "composite" seasonality chart which consists of equal weight to the normal seasonal cycle 4-yr Presidential cycle and 10-yr decennial cycle which has a similar story of a peak right about now with a choppy period through October but with less of a drawdown and then a really nice 2-mth rally into YE"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947967425976434706) 2025-07-23 10:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 5158 engagements "As always great collection of charts from @dailychartbook. Liked the ones from @bespokeinvest. First did not know that the most common VIX reading was XX (with XX close) over X% of all readings since 1990 next is down under X% (14). Second I know I've seen it before but the chart of returns vs VIX levels always is interesting to me. I forget how much big drama (25 VIX levels) equals really good forward returns but mild drama (17-24) not so much. That said there's NO VIX level where returns are negative over the next X months"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949077248340062275) 2025-07-26 12:00:02 UTC 12.5K followers, 4808 engagements "BoA (Hartnett): Reason Powell is under Trump Pressure. Gov't spending is $7tn Trump can't cut $4tn mandatory spending and has backed off DOGE promises of $1tn in discretionary cuts (plus Iran/Ukraine means no change to $1tn in defense spending) leaves $1tn of interest rate cuts as sole vehicle to cut big gov't spend. XXXX% Fed funds would stabilize interest costs and Fed funds at X% (5-yr yield at 2.5%) would cut interest costs by $200bn"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946550590009401475) 2025-07-19 12:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 8679 engagements "This morning's meme stock de jure is apparently Kohl's $KSS. MarketWatch: Kohl's Corp. stock was up more than XX% shortly after the opening bell on Monday. Shares had risen by roughly XXX% at one point during the premarket session. Just five minutes after the opening bell Kohl's was halted for volatility by Nasdaq. Kohl's stock has a high short-interest ratio relative to its float. It recently stood at XX% according to FactSet data"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947661660677935205) 2025-07-22 14:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1332 engagements "$AXP American Express shares up around X% adding to a X% YTD gain following better than expected card transaction volumes with revenues up XXX% y/y. They maintained prior FY sales and earnings guidance. We saw record card member spending in the quarter demand for our premium products was strong and our credit performance remained best in class Chief Executive Officer Steve Squeri said in a statement Friday"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946183672098701727) 2025-07-18 12:22:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1723 engagements "The eight #OPEC+ countries who have been making voluntary production cuts (Saudi Arabia Russia Iraq UAE Kuwait Kazakhstan Algeria and Oman) agreed to supersize the already supersized return of barrels above the original schedule to +548k/b/d (from +411k/b/d the last three months and the original schedule of +137k/b/d) in August which they said in the press release (link below) identical to last month's hike was: "In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals as reflected in the low oil inventories.This flexibility will allow the group to continue to"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1941485172840354009) 2025-07-05 13:11:50 UTC 12.4K followers, 1828 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $BAC $MS $GS $ASML $JNJ $BMNR $SBIT $BTBT $MSTR $MARA $DEO $CVLT $RNLSY $NVDA $BHF $APO $KKR $ARES $BX"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945459785660350874) 2025-07-16 12:25:32 UTC 12.4K followers, 2630 engagements "Pres Trump seems to confirm that countries hoping for the XX% tariff arrangement the UK has will be disappointed and they'll be lucky to get the Japan deal (15% on all products). Well have a straight simple tariff of anywhere between XX% and XX% Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. A couple of we have XX because we havent been getting along with those countries too well. He said talks with the European Union were serious. If they agree to open up the union to American businesses then we will let them pay a lower tariff Trump said"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948193922200567968) 2025-07-24 01:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1940 engagements "BoA: Weve heard upbeat commentary on AI monetization potential but over the long-term the degree of AI monetization remains in question and companies in reinvestment cycles have historically underperformed. In our view AI capex is a bigger tailwind for the market than idiosyncratic AI monetization. Semis are the most obvious beneficiaries but capex growth is expected to slow going forward. AI and the physical buildout of data centers should also lead to more demand for electrification construction utilities commodities etc. ultimately creating more jobs"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948075639040516560) 2025-07-23 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1150 engagements "We got the 3rd (and last) of this weeks #UST note auctions today w/$44bn in 7yrs. As a reminder we had a very good 2yr auction Monday and a not so good 5yr Tuesday so it was a little uncertain what wed see with the 7yr and it was the weakest of the bunch. Bid/cover came in at XXXX the weakest since Aug down from XXXX in Feb (and below the 6-mth avg of 2.69) as like the 5yr indirect bidders werent very interested taking just XXXX% a 3-yr low down from XXXX% in Feb (71.3% 6-mth avg). While direct bidders stepped in to some extent taking XXXX% a 3-yr high up from XXXX% in Feb (19.6%) it still"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1905351012115685490) 2025-03-27 20:07:35 UTC 12.4K followers, 1061 engagements "UK's flash PMI remained in expansion in July but edged back slightly to XXXX from XXXX in June and below the XXXX expected. The manufacturing output index improved to a still-stagnant score of XX suggesting an eight-month contraction in production ended but the overall PMI remained in contraction and the UKs larger services sector suffered a slowdown to reading of XXXX down from XXXX. Firms cut employment at the fastest pace in five months new orders declined after picking up in June export sales fell for a ninth straight month and input price inflation rose. Chris Williamson Chief Business"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948362820086616383) 2025-07-24 12:41:09 UTC 12.4K followers, 1645 engagements
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@neilksethi
"Ex-US its overall a light week although we do get the ECBs policy decision on Thursday where a hold is widely expected but what they might hint at about timing of another rate cut is less clear. There are also a few other central bank decisions (Turkey Hungary Nigeria Russia among others). In economic data well get flash PMIs Canada retail sales ECB lending bank lending survey EU consumer confidence Germanys Ifo business sentiment UK public finance data South Korea and Taiwan trade data and GDP and inflation prints from a number of Lat Ams largest economies among other reports. Well also get"
@neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 01:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1969 engagements
"Earnings will remain heavy but ease off a touch Thurs with XX SPX reporters of which four are $100bn in market cap (BX HON UNP INTC (highest to lowest market caps))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1728 engagements
"2Q earnings season will roll on Wed with another XX SPX reports (seven $100bn in market cap (JNJ BAC ASML MS GS PGR PLD (in order of market cap)). Not sure why BoA didnt have ASML on their list" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-15 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3459 engagements
"Its a lighter week on the US economic calendar with the headliners flash PMIs new and existing home sales durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. Well also get leading and coincident indicators (the latter are more important even though the former get the headlines) the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (has a good correlation with GDP) some more regional bank PMIs and the other weekly reports (mortgage applications and petroleum and nat gas inventories)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 00:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1281 engagements
"ICI data on money market flows saw a +$42.1bn inflow in the week through Dec 31st bringing total 2024 flows to +$962bn (after $1.15tn in 2023) with total MMF assets ending the year at $6.85tn a record high. Both institutional (+$23.3bn) and retail (+$18.8bn) saw healthy inflows for a 2nd wk. In terms of totals XX% is institutional XX% retail" @neilksethi on X 2025-01-04 20:15:05 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"In a sign of the times Goldman adds a "Speculative Trading Indicator" constructed from trading volumes "of US public equity dollar trading value attributable to X unprofitable stocks X penny stocks and X stocks with EV/sales multiples greater than 10x". Unsurprisingly they find it shows a recent increase in high-risk activity within the US equity market. Specifically during the past month the share of trading activity taking place in each of those three groups of stocks has ranked in the top quintile of activity since 1990" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 10:45:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 17K engagements
"BoA (who as a reminder was just a tenth high for 1Q XX GDP vs the 1st estimate right on for 4Q XX GDP & two tenths high for 3Q) dropped their 2Q GDP tracker one tenth to XXX% as of Thursday but remember they had very high expectations for the retail sales report which was quite strong but not that strong and we had some negative revisions to prior months. Otherwise they also nit picked industrial production saying the gain in biz equipment wasnt up to their expectations offset somewhat by higher than expected inventories (which increase GDP)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 18:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1172 engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $INTC $DECK $BYD $VRSN $NEM $SAM $EW $MHK $FIX $COUR" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 22:12:48 UTC 12.4K followers, 2879 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): the return of US exceptionalism has not coincided with return of US dollar bullquite the opposite; $DXY depreciating further to below XX would be confirmation asset allocators need to execute phase II of dollar debasement.up allocation to commodities & emerging markets (phase I was gold/crypto)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 12:00:01 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements
"Given the current environment a nice Fed primer from JPM's Feroli: Fed interest rate policy is set by the #FOMC which is made up of twelve people: the seven members of the Feds Board of Governors based in WashingtonDC the president of the NY Fed and an annually rotating group of four of the XX remaining regional reserve bank presidents. The seven members of the Board of Governors are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. A full term is XX years with one term beginning every two years on even-numbered years. A member who fills an unexpired portion of a term may be reappointed" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1224 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $NFLX $CVX $HES $SRPT $UNP $NSC $MMM $AXP $IBKR $SLB $SCHW $COIN $CRCL $HOOD $GLXY $BMNR $HBAN $WAL $GSK $RBGLY $META $ALV $RF" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 12:44:09 UTC 12.4K followers, 2166 engagements
"Goldman: Total inflows of humanitarian and other immigrants remained stable at an annualized pace of 0.3mn in May and June. But total outflows continued to rise reaching an annualized pace of 0.7mn in June driven by both voluntary departures and deportations. While the number of deportations has risen noticeably since the beginning of this year and is now moderately above the 0.4mn seen during the first Trump administration we expect legal and capacity constraints to limit further increases" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 18:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 3585 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): 30yr bond yields eyeing "jailbreak" levels (UK XXX% US XXX% Japan 3.2%). no new highs in yields & MOVE index stays around XX = risk on new highs in bond yields & MOVE index XXX = risk off" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 11:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2094 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $SBUX $AES $UNH $SEDG $MBLY $WPP $BE $UNCRY $CRBZY $VRNA $JPM $AAPL $OMC $IPG $ENPH $FCX $PENG $RYTM" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-09 12:42:22 UTC 12.4K followers, 1928 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): Historic examples of central bank governor dismissals sparse but always driven by policy conflict over rates currencies or corruption. In every case dismissal coincided with sharp FX declines" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 8156 engagements
"BBG: The first half saw JP Morgan's market value surpass that of its three largest competitors BofA Citigroup and Wells Fargo combined. It racked up $XX billion of profit in that period more than double its closest rival and widened its lead over Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley in investment-banking revenue. $JPM" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-16 20:00:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 1127 engagements
"BBG: Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says that from a technical point of view he doesn't see "frothiness" when looking down-cap from the heavy-weights in the S&P XXX and Nasdaq indices. We believe that this bull market is broadening out in terms of participation he said. He points to the NYSE advance-decline line a popular indicator that tracks the number of securities rising minus the number falling on the exchange each day which is hitting fresh highs" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 19:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1385 engagements
"In Europe the benchmark #STOXX XXX is up X% as of XXXX ET encouraged by the potential for a EU/US trade deal following the Japan/US deal announced Tuesday moving towards the top of its range since early May. Major European indices are trading solidy higher Germany's DAX: +0.6% U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5% France's CAC 40: +1.0% Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.3% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Despite raised hopes for an EU trade deal the European Union has readied plans to quickly hit the US with XX% tariffs on some XXX billion ($117 billion) worth of goods in the" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:50:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 1761 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/23/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 22:29:15 UTC 12.5K followers, 4167 engagements
"Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also highest close since Oct '21. The index "jumped XXX% on Wednesday topping a previous year-to-date high hit on March XX. Kuaishou Technology Baidu Inc. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the top performers in the gauge. Hong Kongs benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 1.6%. boosted by easing Sino-American trade tensions and gains in heavyweight tech shares." "Investors are also looking to the countrys Politburo meeting later this month to set the tone for policy measures in the second half of the year. Markets have reacted positively to recent moves by" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:22:58 UTC 12.5K followers, 2301 engagements
"BBG: Options trading is pointing to more losses for the $USD next week with a gauge of risk reversals signaling declines for the week and coming months. With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powells position seemingly secure the dollar may find near-term support. But the greenbacks downtrend remains firmly in place with eventual rate cuts poised to supplant the political risk premium as the dominant headwind. - Brendan Fagan Macro Strategist Markets Live" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 14:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1686 engagements
"Nasdaq positive volume a similar story going from an excellent XXXX% Tuesday considering the -XXXX% loss in the index to XXXX% today. And the weaker positive volume was despite even higher penny/meme stock volumes (I have added clear short squeezes to the list which today included DNUT (but excluding OPEN which I have treated separately thus far) in addition to the sub $X stocks) accounted for XX of the top XX stocks (not including OPEN) by volume (up from X Tuesday X Monday and X Friday) and the total volume in those stocks came in at 3.3bn up from 2.2bn Tues & 2.6bn on Monday or a huge" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 21:22:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 4778 engagements
"US equity indices started modestly higher and traded with an upward bias today again led by small caps with the RUT finishing up +1.5%. Nasdaq trailed up +0.6% ahead of GOOG TSLA IBM earnings after the close" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:07:15 UTC 12.4K followers, 1925 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $TSLA $GEO $CXW $MOH $SEDG $STZ $WNS $CGEMY $SHEL $MGM $AAPL $NSANY $NFLX $WOLF" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-07 13:28:04 UTC 12.4K followers, 1929 engagements
"The uncertainty surrounding Ishiba's future (and potential increased gov't spending) along with the finalizing of a US/Japan trade deal and BoJ Deputy Gov Uchida saying the deal means "likelihood has risen" for a rate hike all pressuring Japan's JGB sovereign bond market with a 40-yr bond auction today seeing its weakest demand since 2011. The bid-to-cover ratio a measure of demand came in at XXXXX compared to XXXXX at the previous auction. The bonds yielded XXXXX% the highest on record. Bond yields Wednesday rose across the curve" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:18:18 UTC 12.4K followers, 1353 engagements
"Earnings are expected to be the star of the show Wed with our heaviest day of the week w/36 SPX reporters of which eleven are $100bn in market cap including two of the Mag-7 in GOOG/GOOGL & TSLA (the others are IBM TMUS NBOW T GEV NEE TMO BSX & APH (highest to lowest market caps) and CME is right there at $99bn)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2474 engagements
""The recent rise in speculative trading activity has accompanied one of the sharpest short squeezes on record. Since early April through July 24th the GS Most Short basket (GSCBMSAL) has rallied by over XX% outperforming the equal-weight S&P XXX by roughly XX pp. During the last XX years concentrated shorts have rallied more sharply only in 1999-2000 and 2020-2021 which are also the only periods in recent decades when speculative trading activity has exceeded current levels."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 12:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1654 engagements
"BoA's Hartnett: Bubble VIBBE's Bubble brewing in US equity leadership. Watch the VIBBE's (Valuation Inflation Bonds Breadth Exponential price moves). He says "Jailbreaks" are $SOX6k $MAGS $XX $BKX $XXX but "biggest tell would be stocks totally ignoring a rise in inflation expectations & bond yields to new highs". "ultimately proper bubble always ended by jump in bond yields & real yields (if proper bubble next XX months bond yields rise until AI/Big Tech customers squeal)"" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 11:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 9031 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $RUN $FSLR $ENPH $DDOG $JPM $GS $BAC $SHAK $VRT $KEY $COIN $CC $UNCRY $GLNCY $NVS $POAHY $LVMY $AAPL $META $AMZN $XOM $HON" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-08 12:47:14 UTC 12.4K followers, 1995 engagements
"MarketWatch: More U.S. homes sold last year were bought by people age XX and over than by people under age XX according to Jim Reid head of macroeconomic and thematic research at Deutsche Bank Research. "In fact XX% of homes were purchased by those aged XX and over" Reid wrote in a Monday client note. Messaging from the Trump administration has been "mixed" when it comes to which segments of the population it plans to prioritize Reid said noting that high rates and elevated home prices are stalling the typical "handoff" of property to younger generations" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 18:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements
"DB also has seen substantial buying from CTAs in US equities the past two weeks (although sees overall positioning as not stretched) and CTAs remain full of foreign equities: CTAs continued to increase their overall equity longs taking it to the highest in XX months (90th percentile) mostly driven by elevated positioning outside the US. Within the US they increased longs in the S&P XXX (57th percentile from 26th two weeks ago) and in the Nasdaq XXX (66th percentile from 30th) but remained modestly short the Russell 2000 (32nd percentile from 7th percentile two weeks ago)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 18:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1884 engagements
"Goldman: The investor risk appetite that has boosted speculative trading activity has also contributed to the recent upturn in equity capital markets activity. The median US IPO in June rose by XX% in its first trading day the best month since early 2024 and a top decile return relative to the past X decades" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 13:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1161 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index shot +2% higher to the best close since June 2021 following the Japan/US trade deal announced Tuesday. Major regional equity indices also ended mostly higher led by Japan's Nikkei (+3.5%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+1.6%) pushed to the highest close since Oct '21 as did the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. Japan's Nikkei: +3.5% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.6% China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH India's Sensex: +0.7% South Korea's Kospi: +0.4% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Trump on social media" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 13:05:05 UTC 12.4K followers, 2116 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are again mixed with large cap indices little changed while the Russell 2000 is up modestly premarket after its worst session in over a week Thursday. No data or other economic events scheduled later this morning or afternoon. Elsewhere bond yields are edging higher again and the dollar is as well. Crude and nat gas are also modestly higher while gold bitcoin and copper are lower. $SPX +0.1% $NDX UNCH $RUT +0.4%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 13:24:33 UTC 12.5K followers, 1372 engagements
"MarketWatch: Data from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage shows that quantitative strategies are suffering their worst drawdown since the end of 2023. So-called systematic managers (that trade through Goldman) have accumulated a XXX% loss since the beginning of June to take their year-to-date performance down to a still positive XXX% on the year. The bank's analysts attribute the decline to a momentum sell-off a rally in high-beta and high-volatility companies and some unwinding of crowded trades. Bruno Schneller managing partner at Erlen Capital Management a Swiss asset manager says recent moves" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 16:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 9562 engagements
"MarketWatch: Morgan Stanley says "the pace of the rally is slowing" with "retail demand for US equities . falling from a pace of $3.5bn/day at the start of the month to $1.5bn/day now." In addition they expect "the systematic bid to halve to $2.5bn per day by the end of the month" while "a high share of companies" remain in their buyback blackout as "1H July seasonal equity strength typically weakens through from now through August." (see previous posts on this). While they see a short-term bull case if "HFs still need to buy into the rally" their focus is on the fact that "passive inflows" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 10:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1989 engagements
"ICI data on money market flows saw a +$54.7bn inflow in the week through Dec 24th bringing YTD flows to +$920bn (after $1.15tn in 2023) with total MMF assets at $6.81tn a record high. Both institutional (+$37.5bn) and retail (+$17.2bn) saw healthy inflows. In terms of totals XX% is institutional XX% retail" @neilksethi on X 2024-12-28 15:15:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 21:59:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 3115 engagements
"But over the next 1-mth things are now very asymmetric to the upside with +$45bn SPX to buy on an up tape vs just -$3bn to sell on a down tape (global equities would see much more selling by their estimates). -Flat tape: +$3bn to buy (-$59m SPX to sell) -Up tape: +$92bn to buy (+$45bn SPX to buy) -Down tape: -$86bn to sell (-$3bn SPX to sell)" @neilksethi on X 2025-03-18 10:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3857 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $ALK $XYZ $PINS $DLTR $TGT $DPZ $CLF $VZ $SRPT $IVZ $QQQ $MSFT $RYAAY $DYNX $ROP" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 12:36:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 2255 engagements
"2Q GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed (whose GDP tracker was right in line in its 3Q & 4Q XX first ests of GDP (and just a tenth off for 2Q) but who was -XXX% too low for 1Q 25) falls to XXXX% from XXX% now the least since May 27th with minor adjustments lower to many components led by net exports and consumption (both around a tenth in terms of their contribution: the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from XXX percent to XXX percent. Here's the new makeup of the GDP contributions (and changes from the last release July 9th): Net exports = +3.31%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 16:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1459 engagements
"BBG reports that a hold by the ECB in September now looks like the baseline according to "people familiar with the matter." President Christine Lagarde on Thursday said she and her colleagues are now in a wait-and-see mode with inflation at the X% goal and the economy performing in line with or better than expectations. Following those comments markets pared bets on a September rate cut. They now put the chance of such a move at about XX% versus XX% before Lagarde spoke. Mark Wall chief European economist at Deutsche Bank suggested the ECBs easing cycle may now be over. Markets are not far" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 10:00:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements
"@myalphaport6688 Well buy the dip has been the place to be since the pandemic so retail has done well. Hedge funds have made money but not as much as retail. Institutions a little worse. Corporates have been steady buyers and have gotten better about buying more in declines" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:49:26 UTC 12.4K followers, XX engagements
"$CHTR Shares of Charter Communications plunged XX% on Friday putting the stock on pace for its worst day ever after the company reported losing 117000 broadband and 80000 video subscribers in the second quarter" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 19:50:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1133 engagements
"BoA: Last week saw the largest selling of $EUR/USD this year with "the lack of Real Money $USD supply raising risks of a summer USD rally." $DXY" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 15:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1053 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are indicated modestly higher (as theyve been every session this week) on a less newsy overnight highlighted by Fed Gov Waller calling for a rate cut at the end of the month with the SPX on track for the 3rd weekly gain in the last X weeks aided by overall strong corporate earnings. Later this morning well get preliminary July UMich consumer sentiment. Elsewhere bond yields are edging lower and the dollar is falling back from 3-week highs. Perhaps aided by that commodities are broadly higher with crude gold copper and nat gas all up. Bitcoin is" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 13:13:03 UTC 12.4K followers, 14.7K engagements
"Goldman (Garett): S&P Top of Book liquidity stands at $9.83mm as of Tues's close. This is 8x off the April lows of $1.1mm and now XX% above the YTD average of $7.66mm. Improved liquidity = market healing. This signals the ability to transfer risk quickly which is the name of the game in these conditions" @neilksethi on X 2025-05-15 11:24:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1193 engagements
"JPM: Market liquidity conditions have seen notable improvement for US Equities. They also note that "low realized macro volatility has helped to induce low market volatility in conjunction with other factors such as retail investors and corporate buybacks continuing to act as a backstop to drawdowns in Equities as well as economic and financial leverage overall remaining relatively contained and thus far not served to amplify these shocks."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 15:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1079 engagements
"Goldman (Hatzius): We estimate that a XX% US tariff on imports from Europe would shave XXX% off Euro area GDP by the end of 2026 (relative to the impact of our baseline assumption of 15%). this means that the risks to our Euro area growth and interest rate forecasts are tilted to the downside. Outside of tariffs however we are cautiously optimistic on Euro area growth with a cyclical pickup in Germany on the back of the fiscal expansion and continued strength in Spain. The flip side is that the ECB easing cycle is probably ending although we still expect one last cut to XXXX% in September" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1275 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): bears position for breakdown via defensive healthcare staples utilities (now just XX% of S&P XXX index lowest since 2000)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 11:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 12.9K engagements
"Goldman: Recent US dollar weakness is a tailwind to S&P XXX EPS but a smaller factor than many investors assume. The S&P XXX in aggregate generates XX% of its revenues overseas roughly unchanged relative to last year. In our macro model a XX% weakening of the US dollar is associated with a boost of roughly 2-3% to S&P XXX EPS all else equal. and investors typically do not reward FX-driven sales beats the way they reward constant-currency beats (Exhibit 5)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 11:20:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 5539 engagements
"BoA on EPFR flows week through Wed: Bonds: $25.9bn inflow biggest since Jun20 ($25.9bn) across the board inflows (IG $10.3bn EM debt $5.7bn Treasuries $3.9bn HY bonds $2.4bn)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 14:01:25 UTC 12.4K followers, 1425 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/18/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 22:18:45 UTC 12.4K followers, 3341 engagements
"$ITB On the back of a +16% gain in the largest homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. $DHI as well as a +12% gain in PulteGroup Inc. $PHM after earnings the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF $ITB is up nearly +8% it's best day since Nov '22 to a 5-mth high. "Many of the biggest builders in the country continue to surprise Wall Street to the upside with how well they are running their businesses in this environment John Burns CEO of John Burns Research and Consulting told MarketWatch. In other words the results werent as bad as investors were expecting namely gross margins and the expectations around" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 19:52:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1098 engagements
"MS estimates that there will need to be $2.9tn of global data center spend through 2028 including hardware and infrastructure. By 2028 data center spend alone ($900bn) will roughly equal 2024 total SPX cap ex spend ($950bn). They estimate about ($1.4tn) will be financed by hyperscaler cash flows with the remainder ($1.5tn) needing to be financed through credit markets" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 11:45:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2602 engagements
"After hitting what I called concerning levels Apr 16th at $54bn the least since 2021 RRP had built back up to around $150bn and remained there outside of May month-end when we saw the typical month end jump as banks shrink their reported balance sheets at quarter/month-end when they have to report their asset mix to regulators (RRP doesnt count against their regulatory ratios while cash & T-Bills do). I said I would expect this to come back down and it did but as I noted two weeks ago we should expect to see these same month-end dynamics (which is a little more at quarter end) as move to June" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-07 17:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3956 engagements
"MarketWatch: Alex Manzara at R.J. O'Brien makes the point that even if the Trump administration is successful in getting a more pliant Fed there's still another issue in its quest to lower mortgage rates. The spread between the 10-year note and 30-year mortgage rates has increased from about XXX basis points between 2017 and 2019 to XXX basis points now. That's as the White House is contemplating freeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government control -- a move that could potentially send the spread still higher. "If Fannie and Freddie are privatized it's likely the market will demand" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 18:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1336 engagements
"BoA (who as a reminder was just a tenth high for 1Q XX GDP vs the 1st estimate right on for 4Q XX GDP & two tenths high for 3Q) left their 2Q GDP tracker at XXX% as of Thursday despite a small downgrade after the home sales reports" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 13:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GM $LMT $KO $NXPI $STLD $MEDP $CSX $NSC $DHI $PHM $NOC $ZION $ACI $AGYS $CALX $AZN $SNY $QS $SRPT $PMI $SHW" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 12:46:55 UTC 12.4K followers, 2936 engagements
"Berkshire cuts its stakes in several financials in 4Q including nearly three-quarters of its position in Citigroup selling 40.6mn shares worth more than $2.4bn 95mn shares of Bank of America (taking its share down to XXX% from XX% in July) and 1.7mn shares of Capital One (20% of its position). Other smaller sales included Ulta Beauty Charter Communications Louisiana-Pacific Nu Holdings and S&P XXX ETF's $VOO and $SPY. "The company invested in just one new stock in the fourth quarter buying $1.2bn worth of shares of Modelo beermaker Constellation Brands." It also though added to stakes in" @neilksethi on X 2025-02-15 13:00:03 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DAL $EWZ $KLG $AMD $TREX $BYRN $PTC $HELE $BX $WPP $MP $UAL $AAL $ALK $LUV $ROKU $RARE $MREO $AMD $CAG" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-10 12:55:15 UTC 12.4K followers, 2458 engagements
"For now shares have moved back to around unchanged levels. Here's CNBC's link for their updates as they compile the numbers. Cloud revenues and traffic acquisition costs also above expectations. $GOOG" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:15:15 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Goldman: Even a one-time price increase will eat into real income at a time when consumer spending trends already look shaky. Although nominal core retail sales rebounded in June we estimate that real personal consumption has now stagnated on net for six months which rarely happens outside of recession. Housing activity has also slowed sharply with overall construction spending falling faster over the past year than at any time since the post-2008 housing bust. The weakness in consumption and housing has pushed down our tracking estimate for H1 real GDP growth to XXX% about a percentage point" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 16:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2492 engagements
"2Q GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed (whose GDP tracker was right in line in its 3Q & 4Q XX first ests of GDP (and just a tenth off for 2Q) but who was -XXX% too low for 1Q 25) edges down slightly to XXXX% the least since May 27th with a minor adjustment lower to residential investment as despite the beat on total starts the more economically impactful single-family starts fell more than expected: the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -XXX percent to -XXX percent Here's the new makeup of the GDP contributions (and changes from the last release" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 14:15:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 1640 engagements
"Goldman: Systematic macro global equity length has resumed and continues to gradually push higher amidst the positive trend signals and non elevated or decreasing volatility. We estimate $25bn of global equity buying in the last 1-week $31bn in the upcoming 1-week and $132bn in the next 1-month cumulative in the baseline scenario. Of this monthly figure roughly $100bn is expected to be from CTA/tend followers and the remainder from the vol-based investors (VA vol control and risk parity style). And across regions $48bn or XX% of that monthly global figure is expected to be in US markets" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-13 13:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1540 engagements
"New home supply (new homes for sale) moved up +6k to 511k the highest since Oct 2007 showing little signs of peaking. And with the weakness in sales the months of supply at the current sales rate is now up to XXX the most since Sep XX well above the normal range of 4-6 months" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 16:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1433 engagements
"Along the same lines CNBC reports that The Invesco S&P XXX High Beta ETF ( $SPHB) on Monday hit a new intraday all-time high going back to its inception in 2011. Stocks leading the ETF include Albemarle Super Micro ON Semi Teradyne CrowdStrike Deckers Freeport McMoRan. All are up more than 2%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 16:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2255 engagements
"Nearly all of our client conversations this week are about when to take the other side of the moves in most speculative area of the market such as non-profitable tech stocks Faris Mourad Goldmans vice president of the US custom baskets team wrote in a note to clients. We have seen less talk and more action as the week has progressed and we are noticing clients getting comfortable shorting at these levels. After surging some XX% from its mid-April lows the banks basket tracking unprofitable tech stocks has slipped over the last two days giving back more than 3%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 14:00:02 UTC 12.5K followers, 9970 engagements
"BBG story on the widening gap b/w 2025 & 2026 rate cut bets since April now around 76bps from 25bps. Whoever comes in next that person is going to have a bias towards lowering rates said Ed Al-Hussainy global rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle. In addition the economy is less likely to be resilient next year opening the door for more policy easing he said" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 17:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1550 engagements
"As noted at the start of the week its a light calendar for US economic data this week but Thursday is the one busy day with flash PMIs new home sales Chicago National Activity Indes and weekly jobless claims. The Fed will remain in their blackout. Well get a 10yr TIPS reopening (so far we havent had a TIPS auction get media coverage and nobody paid any attention to todays 20yr auction so Id imagine you can ignore this one). Earnings will remain heavy with XX SPX reporters of which four are $100bn in market cap (BX HON UNP INTC (highest to lowest market caps)). EX US DM also our busiest day" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 00:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2821 engagements
"MarketWatch: Mark Newton head of technical strategy at Fundstrat says the VIX looks to be close to bottoming and likely could trend higher in August. "Overall I feel that VIX likely can rise to the mid-20s and possibly mid-30s by October meaning that implied volatility at current levels is currently cheap in my view" says Newton in a note published late Tuesday. Consequently any decline in the VIX in coming weeks may represent an opportunity to buy cheap volatility on a 2-3 month timeframe he adds. "Bottom line any move down to 14-15.50 would signal an appealing risk/reward opportunity for" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 15:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2272 engagements
"BBG: The S&P XXX hasn't posted a X% up or down day since late June (17 sessions) the longest streak since December's 20-session streak. An old saying on Wall Street is Never short a dull market said Dave Lutz equity sales trader and macro strategist at Jonestrading. History shows quiet markets tend to drift upward" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 12:29:13 UTC 12.4K followers, 9350 engagements
"Despite the surge in global bond yields a net X% expect of GFMS respondents see global CPI to be higher in XX months time down 7ppt MoM. "FMS inflation expectations have dropped 50ppt since April the biggest 3-month decline since Jun22."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-16 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1860 engagements
"Earnings lighten up considerably Friday with just X SPX reporters of which none are $100bn in market cap (largest is HCA at $87bn)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 23:39:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2789 engagements
"Initial jobless claims (SA) continue to remain tame in wk through July 12th edging back another -7k to 221k now down -29k from the highest level since October hit four weeks ago overall remaining in the range over the past yr just +34k above the 50-yr lows in Oct '23 (187k). Four-wk moving avg edges -6k to 230k (-4k y/y) down -15k from the highest since Aug XX from three weeks ago. This is consistent with the note X weeks ago that there have been modest moves higher in initial claims in early summer the past two years which eventually subsided. Continuing claims (SA) in wk through July 5th" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 12:36:47 UTC 12.4K followers, 2413 engagements
"As always a nice collection of charts from @dailychartbook. Thought this one was interesting from @fernavid showing the % of stocks in the Russell 3000 (roughly all US equities) which have had a XX% move over the past XXX trading days (roughly a year). It's up to around XX% but it has gotten as high as XX% previously (perhaps unsurprisingly around bear markets)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 10:30:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 4426 engagements
"Goldman (via ZeroHedge): having previously flaggedthe momentum rotation and extreme rally in high beta names and lower quality pockets of the market Goldman warns that "we may be moving towards later innings of the short covering given the magnitude of these moves." Historically there has only been X events where the bank's short interest pair had a higher monthly return in October of 2008 and January of 2021 and both cases had poor subsequent returns. However it is worth noting that the meme stock rally in 2021 caused more pain as the squeeze in the Goldman short pair was even more" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 12:03:11 UTC 12.5K followers, 1299 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged higher +0.2% as it continues its recent chop a little below the highest levels since Sep XX hit two weeks ago. Major regional indices were mostly higher. Asian markets ended mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei +0.6% Hong Kong's Hang Seng -XXX% China's Shanghai Composite +0.4% India's Nifty -XXX% South Korea's Kospi +0.2% and Australia's All Ordinaries +0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Donald Trump said he would send letters to more than XXX countries notifying them their tariff rates could be XX% or XX% as he forges ahead" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 13:48:10 UTC 12.4K followers, 1453 engagements
"@DigimonCBA Did I make it sound dramatic I was just trying to state that the average stock didn't participate much in the continued rally last week" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 21:12:33 UTC 12.5K followers, XX engagements
"BBG: Firms such as Invesco Ltd. Fidelity International Ltd. and JPMorgan Asset Management are reinforcing bullish bets across technology shares from the US to Asia as well as on emerging-market assets. The high-octane wager is that while President Donald Trump is threatening to disrupt the economic order anew he will step back from the brink. People have really bought into this belief that there is a Trump put that if markets correct or if US interest rates go up Trump will back off as he did in April: that trade is on said Chang Hwan Sung a multi-asset portfolio manager in Invescos" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 13:25:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1083 engagements
"June existing home sales fall back -XXX% m/m to a 9-mth low as they bump along at levels near the least since just after the GFC at 3.93mn at what I would imagine is the slowest pace for June since June 2009 (after the worst March April and May since then). Note as these are closings contracts were signed 1-3 mths earlier. Single-family sales were -X% m/m to 3.57mn +0.6% y/y while condo sales were unchanged m/m -XXX% y/y. Sales rose in the West but fell in the Northeast Midwest and South (the largest housing market). All though but the NE were up modestly from a year ago. "High mortgage rates" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 14:23:57 UTC 12.4K followers, 1650 engagements
"$GOOG $GOOGL Alphabet shares jump in a $XX band following the release of earnings which showed beats across the board but that also includes cap ex (higher than expected)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:10:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 2305 engagements
"Goldman estimates systematic macro global equity buyers added $30bn of net length last week ($67bn in the last X month) and will add another $42bn in the next X week ($107bn in the next one month in the baseline scenario) driven by CTA/trend followers. "Nearly $42bn or XX% of the global figure is expected to be in US markets."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 18:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1442 engagements
"We got the 3rd (and last) of this weeks #UST note auctions today w/$44bn in 7yrs. As a reminder we had good 2yr & 5yr auctions Tuesday & Wed with the latter seeing the highest foreign demand on record leading to the 2nd lowest dealer take up on record and with that backdrop the 7yr came through as the best of the bunch. Specifically the bid/cover came in at XXXX well above Aprils XXXX and the highest since December also a bit above the 6-mth avg of XXXX as like the with the 5yr we saw strong indirect (foreign) demand XXXX% up from in April XXXX% (which was the least since Dec '21) and above" @neilksethi on X 2025-05-29 20:38:22 UTC 12.4K followers, 1781 engagements
"BBG: Invesco sees medium-term opportunities in Korea due to optimism over the governments corporate-governance reforms. The nations benchmark Kospi index has already gained more than XX% this year making it one of the worlds best-performing major equity gauges" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 01:59:10 UTC 12.4K followers, 1403 engagements
"With the #FOMC coming up on Wed rate cut pricing for 2025 remained near the least since February +1bps Friday to 44bps according to CMEs #Fedwatch tool (well below the 64bps July 2nd before the June NFP & from 92bps on May 1st (the peak this year was at 103bps on Apr 8th the low was 36bps Feb 11th)). The probability of a cut at this week's meeting is X% down from XX% pre-NFP (and from XX% at the start of May) while a cut by the following meeting (Sept) is XX% remaining a little above the lowest since February on Jul 17th (54%). It was XX% pre-NFP. Chances of X cuts this year is XX% (down from" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 19:20:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1116 engagements
"Goldman (Kostin) notes that the weak dollar "tailwind" disproportionately aided the Mag-7. Our economists expect continued USD weakness boosting relative outperformance of international-facing stocks although Kostin also expects US economic growth to outpace most other major economies in both 2025 and 2026 which should provide a relative tailwind to domestic-facing firms" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 13:52:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1566 engagements
"BoA: In FX the US Dollar declined again this week despite a pop higher in reaction to the strong US jobs report on Thursday. Our model suggests that CTAs still have $USD shorts vs $EUR $GBP $MXN and $CAD. In other currencies $JPY and $AUD longs are less stretched with JPY selling expected next week following this weeks USD strengthening vs JPY" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-07 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1080 engagements
"Interesting note from @Chartfest1's always good daily post on The Street: I saw a chart of the ETF (BUZZ) (VanEck Social Sentiment ETF) in BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinskys excellent missive Thursday. Wowee. That is some move since June and now it has begun to go parabolic. Naturally this took me to the ratio of the (QQQ)'s to BUZZ and heres another wow: Look at how poorly the QQQs have done relative to BUZZ since April. Think about this we consider the QQQs to be the pinnacle of technology stocks yet they practically look like the healthcare stocks relative to the S&P when" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 16:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1596 engagements
"Germany's closely watched Ifo index of biz sentiment improved in July for the 5th mth in the past X to the highest since May '24 boosted by the expectations component rising to the highest since Apr '23. A gauge of current conditions also continued its more modest rise to the best since since last July. Sentiment among German companies has improved somewhat Ifo President Clemens Fuest said Friday in a statement. There is the hope now that there will be a deal with the US and maybe also less uncertainty about how things will be going on and what tariffs will be Fuest later told Bloomberg TV." @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 12:43:33 UTC 12.5K followers, 1566 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $JPM $WFC $C $BLK $CRWV $ERIC $BK $ACI $STT $NVDA $TTD $SEDG $ENPH $NFG $AMD $AAPL $MP $UBER $BIDU $GOOG $BAM $ANSS" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-15 13:11:24 UTC 12.4K followers, 2196 engagements
"BoA: Corporates sound more upbeat based on our NLP analysis after a steep drop in 1Q (outside of still miserable small caps Exhibit 59). We have yet to clamber back to pre-Liberation Day optimism but tariff uncertainty largely remains the scapegoat for near term caution. Long-term outlooks are very half-full - an uptick in project delays means pent-up spend down the road tariff inflation has been offset by pricing OpEx focus etc" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 14:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements
"June new home sales edge higher after falling in May by the second most since Sep XX to slowest pace since Oct but at +0.6% to 627k it was well under the +4.3% expected to 650k keeping them at the bottom of their range since Jan XX. Regionally sales in the South (representing over XX% of all new home sales) were up +5.1% after falling in May by the most since July 2013 to the least since November XX. Sales also grew in the MW (+6.3%) but fell sharply in the NE (-27.6% to the slowest pace since Feb 23) and less sharply in the West (-8.4% to the least since Nov) Total sales are -XXX% y/y Note:" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 14:21:33 UTC 12.4K followers, 4464 engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TMUS $LVS $IBM $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $VKNG $MOH $URI" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 22:11:45 UTC 12.4K followers, 3194 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/24/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 22:18:11 UTC 12.4K followers, 4033 engagements
"Initial jobless claims (SA) continue to remain tame in wk through July 19th edging back another -4k to 217k now down -33k from the highest level since October hit five weeks ago overall remaining in the range over the past yr just +30k above the 50-yr lows in Oct '23 (187k). Four-wk moving avg edges -5k to 225k (-9k y/y) down -20k from the highest since Aug XX from four weeks ago. This is consistent with the note X weeks ago that there have been modest moves higher in initial claims in early summer the past two years which eventually subsided. Continuing claims (SA) in wk through July 12th" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 13:10:41 UTC 12.4K followers, 4052 engagements
"As a result of the beats Factset says XXX% revenue growth is now expected for Q2 (+0.6% w/w) up from XXX% to start the quarter and up from XXX% in Q1. It would be the 19th straight quarter of growth" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 16:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1637 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are modestly higher following the announcement yesterday of a US/Japan trade agreement and as corporate earnings reports continue to pour in. Later this morning well get existing home sales along with weekly EIA petroleum inventories. After the close well get earnings from GOOG & TSLA among others (CMG IBM etc.). Elsewhere bond yields are edging higher and the dollar is as well. Copper is also extending higher while crude gold bitcoin and nat gas are all lower. $SPX +0.4% $NDX +0.1% $RUT +0.6%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 13:15:12 UTC 12.5K followers, 1245 engagements
"US equity indices started the day little changed at the large cap level but in the red for the DJIA & RUT and that's how they finished with a reverse performance from Wed (Nasdaq leading +0.2% RUT giving back yesterday's gains -1.4%)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 20:13:29 UTC 12.4K followers, 1156 engagements
"The Week Ahead - 7/20/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 01:40:28 UTC 12.4K followers, 9733 engagements
"BoA'S Hartnett says it is the "Year of the International" and might be time to "nibble at oversold US semiconductors and buy lagging #India (small caps -XX% since Sep24 peak - chart)" after "$3tn market cap loss to $15tn for 'Magnificent 7' (now 'Lagnificent 7') as market cap of Chinas 'Fab Four' of Baidu Alibaba Tencent Xiaomi doubles to $1.6tn; European equity gains not too far behind China in 2025;.next equity trade is weak US dollar trade"" @neilksethi on X 2025-03-07 11:48:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1316 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up +0.3% Monday as it pushes to fresh nearly 4-yr highs. Major regional equity indices began the week on a mostly higher note as well while Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday. Japan's Nikkei: HOLIDAY Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.7% China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7% India's Sensex: +0.5% South Korea's Kospi: +0.7% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Japan is facing trade and political uncertainty after a historic defeat for the prime ministers ruling party. Shigeru Ishiba is trying to buy time for his" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 13:03:26 UTC 12.4K followers, 1518 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $HLT $HAS $T $COF $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP $RKT $NOK $ASML $MS $MCO $GEV $LII" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:36:54 UTC 12.5K followers, 2546 engagements
"Were seeing an inflation market pricing a premium around the Fed independence risk said Meghan Swiber a US rates strategist at Bank of America. Ultimately if youre putting pressure on the Fed in an environment where unemployment is low and were still seeing inflation a far cry from the Feds target you ultimately have the market trading and perceiving more persistent upside risk to the inflation landscape. The nightmare scenario is the Fed loses its independence tariff inflation is big and the fiscal policy turns out to be more simulative ahead of mid-term election and its all happening at the" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 13:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2513 engagements
"While Q2 so far is shaping up as another beat this quarter over a particularly low bar beaten down by tariff concerns things remain very much in flux until we get the Mag-7 (which start next week) given that their earnings growth is expected to be over 4x the rest of the SPX at XXXX% (vs 3.4%) according to Factset. That though is expected to narrow somewhat in coming quarters: analysts expect lower earnings growth for the Magnificent X companies over the next three quarters relative to Q2 2025. For Q3 2025 through Q1 2026 analysts are predicting earnings growth rates for these seven companies" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 11:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3127 engagements
"Leveraged ETF AUM in the two largest single stock ETFs $TSLA and $NVDA both also moved higher last week with TSLA +$569mn to $8.5bn the highest since March while NVDA was +$486mn to $6.4bn the highest since Feb. 3rd place $MSTR though -$183mn to $3.1bn. $COIN moved back into the fourth spot just above $PLTR at $1.33b vs $1.21bn" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 12:00:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 2715 engagements
"$CMG Chipotle shares down nearly -XX% adding to its -XX% slump YTD after cutting FY sales guidance for the second time this year to flat y/y. Despite a number of new offerings and promotions comp sales were -X% worse than expected and the second consecutive quarter of falling comps" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:47:11 UTC 12.4K followers, 1931 engagements
"There could be a pause in the bull market in the short-term UBS head of U.S. equities David Lefkowitz said in a note to clients. President Trump continues to threaten higher tariffs and extend the timeline for reaching trade agreements. This is a damper on business investment decision-making and could also further push out the timing of Fed rate cuts. UBS said it holds a neutral view on U.S. equities for now which is not necessarily a negative stance but a cautious one due to trade risks. It appears that investors are already pricing in a substantial de-escalation in trade frictions UBS said." @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 13:31:06 UTC 12.5K followers, 1506 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): "widening gap between S&P XXX market cap ($50tn) & S&P XXX ex-Magnificent X market cap ($32tn); monopolies monopolizing returns $SPX up XX% YTD versus X% for SPX ex. XX largest stocks; both US & global equity breadth remain direwinners must keep winning to keep stealth correction under the hood."" @neilksethi on X 2024-12-20 12:05:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): Tale of the Tape: bank stocks YTD: Europe XX% UK XX% China XX% Japan XX% US 17%; banks best expression of 2025 flip from US to global fiscal excess; banks = risk-on until bond yields rise to levels that trigger lower banks; hasnt happened yet (Chart 5) but vigilantes set to pounce if 30-year yields in UK XXX% US XXX% Japan 3.2%; interest costs up to X% of UK GDP ($120bn) X% of US GDP ($1tn) X% of Japan GDP ($185bn)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 09:29:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1293 engagements
"Goldman says they see a highly unusual discrepancy between the "the front month VIX future which is extremely elevated vs implied volatilityThe roll down is huge. We think a lot of this is due to the massive growth in the VIX ETN complex as retail investors pile in to these products - this essentially leads to the VIX market acting a bit more short gamma: selling more vol on days when vol is down and buying more vol on days vol is up to stay rebalanced. The conclusion here is that with VIX future at such an elevated level and roll down so steep as UX1 comes in more equity buying ensues" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 14:10:18 UTC 12.4K followers, 2954 engagements
"For the week markets finished well off the spike lows from the Powell firing headlines but gains overall were moderate led by the Nasdaq's +1.5%. SPX was +0.6% RUT +0.2% DJIA -0.1%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 20:14:32 UTC 12.4K followers, 1717 engagements
"We'll get a lighter start to what will be the second heaviest week of earnings reports next week with X SPX components of which just one is $100bn in market cap (VZ)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 23:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2150 engagements
"BoA on CTA FX positioning: Last week we noted that CTA $EUR/USD longs were at risk of being unwound should the $USD continue its rally. However EUR rebounded this week leaving CTA triggers further away for the time being. Positioning is still stretched long in EUR as well as in $GBP and MXN" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 10:00:02 UTC 12.5K followers, 1201 engagements
"BBG: Retail traders "plunked down some $XXX billion a day in foreign-exchange markets in the first six months of 2025 according to Finance Magnates Intelligence which collates data from several trading platforms. That figure is up XX% from a year ago Finance Magnates says echoing reports of jumps in volumes from eToro Interactive Brokers Tradu and FxPro. After excluding Japan where the market has become largely stable its up XX% and XXX% from five years earlier. Six hundred billion to be clear is small change in a market that rings up trading volumes of $XXX trillion on a typical day. And yet" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 10:30:01 UTC 12.5K followers, 1218 engagements
"$CMG: Chipotle down nearly -XX% on pace for its worst day since Oct. XX 2017 when it fell 14.6%. If it closes at current levels it will be the lowest close since Jan 2024. Year to date its seen a decline of almost 25%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 19:38:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1004 engagements
"MarketWatch: 0DTE options continue to grow now accounting for more than XX% of total daily activity for S&P XXX options according to the CBOE. While institutions certainly trade 0DTE retail traders are responsible for a growing share of overall volume according to Mandy Xu head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe. Xu said in a report published back in May estimating them at between XX% and XX% of S&P XXX 0DTE trading. Theyre selling options in a capped-risk way to generate some income Henry Schwartz vice president of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe told MarketWatch during an" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 10:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1016 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $INTC $PARA $CNC $DECK $CVNA $CHTR $PUMSY $LVMH $VWAPY $FIX $SAM $AON $HCA $PSX" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 13:04:38 UTC 12.5K followers, 2006 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/25/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 22:28:48 UTC 12.5K followers, 8118 engagements
"Earnings will continue to build Tuesday with XX SPX reporters of which nine are $100bn in market cap (KO PM RTX TXN ISRG COF DHR CB LMT (highest to lowest market caps))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 00:08:38 UTC 12.4K followers, 2392 engagements
"$IBM the 3rd largest reporter today down -X% as software sales missed expectations even as they increased XX% y/y. Consulting which had been in a slump also inflected to a positive 3%. Infrastructure sales were +14% above expectations driven by the strongest initial launch of a mainframe product in IBMs history Chief Financial Officer Jim Kavanaugh said in an interview. Also note the stock coming in was up XX% for the year so in part a victim to perhaps too high expectations. IBM maintained its annual sales forecast of at least X% growth in constant currency. Free cash flow is projected to" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:43:17 UTC 12.4K followers, 2231 engagements
"It wasn't just Opendoor though. Penny stock volumes (which I treat as sub $X so ex-Opendoor) accounted for X of the remaining XX stocks by volume and the total volume in those stocks came in at a huge 2.6bn or XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume up from XXXX% Friday. And if you add Opendoor which traded XXXX billion shares on its own they accounted for XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 20:52:16 UTC 12.5K followers, 7094 engagements
"@tarun_kalra That one is definitely the most questionable. But it's nuanced a little. I think I put in another post but they just take the top XX and the median of that which I think can serve as an indicator of speculative engagement" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 20:21:57 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements
"After some moderation in the goods trade balance in February March showed a return to a record goods trade deficit with an increase of $14bn (9.5%) bringing the deficit to $162bn well above the expected $145bn which will create a further drag on 1Q GDP. It is now up $59bn since Oct (65%). Imports were +5.0% (driven by a +27.5% jump in consumer goods) to $343bn while exports were up +1.2% (so a positive there) to $181bn (led by industrial supplies autos and food/feed/beverage)" @neilksethi on X 2025-04-29 13:00:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 1307 engagements
"BoA notes on gamma positioning that as of Thursdays close SPX gamma was +$2.6bn (47th 1y %ile) a relatively modest figure. However a large portion of Thursdays gamma footprint is due to Julys 3rd Friday expiry (i.e. 18-Jul) which is now past. So BoA sees gamma as remaining relatively low but still positive which should have some marginal dampening impact on volatility but as of Thursday at least it saw a big wall that is perhaps what has kept SPX rallies from extending. It remains little changed on declines until around the 6150 but then builds. Again though this is all likely to change as" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 11:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 4025 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $NKE $TTD $CRMD $CORZQ $CRWV $IREN $CIFR $AVAV $APOG $AAPL $AMZN $NVDA $EL $RILY $CNCX $SMCI $MP $BA" @neilksethi on X 2025-06-27 13:17:03 UTC 12.4K followers, 2234 engagements
"BBG: While institutions hold roughly XX% of US money market assets XX% of the growth in MMF assets since March 2022 (the start of the Fed hiking cycle) has come from retail whose holdings rose from around $1.4tn to $2.9tn currently (right scale on the chart)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 18:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1681 engagements
"MS says we can expect more volatility today with a bias for a down day. "when a large share of market cap reports in a day SPX absolute returns tend to be larger and slightly more negative than average."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 11:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"The 2yr yield more sensitive to #FOMC policy -4bps to XXXX% ending the week -2bps lower. It is -46bps below the Fed Funds midpoint so still calling for rate cuts but also up +15bps this month" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 19:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1201 engagements
"In contrast to a longer term reaction to earnings reports (two days prior to two days after) which Factset says have been better than 5-yr avgs BBG says looking just the next XX hours shows earnings misses seeing the worst performance since 3Q '22 at -5.1%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 15:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2108 engagements
"BBG US dollar index's worst week of the month. $USD" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 19:05:57 UTC 12.5K followers, 2694 engagements
"BoA (who as a reminder was just a tenth high for 1Q XX GDP vs the 1st estimate right on for 4Q XX GDP & two tenths high for 3Q) dropped their 2Q GDP tracker one tenth to XXX% as of Thursday but remember they had very high expectations for the retail sales report which was quite strong just not that strong. Otherwise they also nitpicked industrial production saying the gain in biz equipment wasnt up to their expectations which was offset by higher-than-expected inventories (higher inventories increase GDP)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 16:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1053 engagements
"Given the price performance in SPAC's it's probably not surprising that 2Q saw the most SPAC capital raises since 1Q 2022. XX offerings raised a total of $X billion in the quarter for a 1H total of $XX billion" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 16:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1896 engagements
"NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) which improved considerably Tuesday to XXXX% the best in nearly a month and 2nd best in nearly two months edged back to XXXX% despite a stronger index performance at XXXX% vs +0.70% Tues so a bit of a negative divergence there" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 21:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3895 engagements
"Through Thursday weve had XX% of SPX earnings in for Q2 according to Factset still a bit early for broad takeaways but FWIW the beat rate has remained elevated at XX% in line with the low bar I (and many others) mentioned ahead of the earnings season above 1Qs XX% the 5-yr avg of XX% and 10-yr avg of XX% but the downside is earnings are coming in on average just +6.1% above estimates below the +8.3% 1Q the 5-yr avg of XXX% and the 10-yr avg of 6.9%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 11:00:02 UTC 12.5K followers, 3710 engagements
"Japan's Jul flash PMI remains unchanged at XXXX as an improvement in services (53.5 from 51.7) offset an unexpected drop in manufacturing back into contraction (48.8 from XXXX in June (50.2 exp'd)). "Latest Flash PMI data signalled a further modest increase in overall private sector business activity across Japan during July. However this masked divergent underlying trends with stronger growth across the service industry contrasting with a fresh fall in factory output. At the same time overall employment and new business rose only marginally across the private sector as a whole. Business" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 01:09:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 2449 engagements
"Notably we closed today below the 5890 CTA trigger from Goldman's Friday note. As a reminder even in a flat tape they were modeled as -$48bn sellers of global equities" @neilksethi on X 2025-03-04 00:44:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1371 engagements
"Two different defense stocks two very different performances since May 1st. $LMT Lockheed Martin hitting a new 52-week low on the back of the companys second-quarter revenue miss. Shares were down over -X% putting its decline since May 1st at almost -13%. By contrast shares of $NOC Northrop Grumman were trading at all-time highs dating back to the Northrop Aircraft and Grumman Aerospace merger in 1994. That stock has surged more than +16% since May 1st" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 19:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2776 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GPRO $DNUT $DOW $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $HON $AAL $AEO $TMUS $LVS $IBM $VKNG $MOH $DB $BX $LHX" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 13:00:52 UTC 12.5K followers, 2200 engagements
"I noted that BoA says their corporate clients are starting to reaccelerate their buying (+$1.2bn last week from +$0.9bn the prior week and +$0.6bn the week before that) which is consistent with Goldman's note to start the week that we passed the max buyback blackout last week (after the financials reported) and starting this week were at around XX% having exited. By the end of next week we'll be XX% out and the following week over 90%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 11:15:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2121 engagements
"With the cost of protection against a XX% SPX decline over the next month versus a XX% gain at the lowest level since January trading desks at firms including Goldman Sachs JPM BofA and Citadel Securities are telling clients to buy cheap hedges against potential losses. If you are nervous the market is making it very easy to rent hedges Goldmans trading desk wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Its time to buy volatility BofA Securities Inc.s John Tully wrote to clients on Monday noting that the VIX Index historically tends to hit the lowest level of the year in July. He recommends clients" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 15:15:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 1663 engagements
"BoA: The BofA Corporate Misery Indicator a macro gauge of the profit cycle remained near zero but still positive in 2Q suggesting a tough operating environment for corporates. Analysts are penciling in net margins falling QoQ to XXXX% in 2Q (vs. XXXX% in 1Q)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 11:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1113 engagements
"MarketWatch: Barclays strategists led by Venu Krishna have their own metric for retail sentiment something called the equity euphoria index which measures the percentage of stocks in euphoric territory and is now surging toward the highest levels of the year. Its a proprietary measure culled from the options market and could be more reflective of market conditions given the way retail investors now use zero-day-to-expiration and other aggressive derivative products. Strategists at the bank said the dynamic of individual stocks both increasing in price and in volatility is a hallmark of upside" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 15:45:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1295 engagements
"From the always great @dailychartbook nightly email (more info at the link at the bottom) Ned Davis Research has a nice "composite" seasonality chart which consists of equal weight to the normal seasonal cycle 4-yr Presidential cycle and 10-yr decennial cycle which has a similar story of a peak right about now with a choppy period through October but with less of a drawdown and then a really nice 2-mth rally into YE" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 10:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 5158 engagements
"As always great collection of charts from @dailychartbook. Liked the ones from @bespokeinvest. First did not know that the most common VIX reading was XX (with XX close) over X% of all readings since 1990 next is down under X% (14). Second I know I've seen it before but the chart of returns vs VIX levels always is interesting to me. I forget how much big drama (25 VIX levels) equals really good forward returns but mild drama (17-24) not so much. That said there's NO VIX level where returns are negative over the next X months" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 12:00:02 UTC 12.5K followers, 4808 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): Reason Powell is under Trump Pressure. Gov't spending is $7tn Trump can't cut $4tn mandatory spending and has backed off DOGE promises of $1tn in discretionary cuts (plus Iran/Ukraine means no change to $1tn in defense spending) leaves $1tn of interest rate cuts as sole vehicle to cut big gov't spend. XXXX% Fed funds would stabilize interest costs and Fed funds at X% (5-yr yield at 2.5%) would cut interest costs by $200bn" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 12:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 8679 engagements
"This morning's meme stock de jure is apparently Kohl's $KSS. MarketWatch: Kohl's Corp. stock was up more than XX% shortly after the opening bell on Monday. Shares had risen by roughly XXX% at one point during the premarket session. Just five minutes after the opening bell Kohl's was halted for volatility by Nasdaq. Kohl's stock has a high short-interest ratio relative to its float. It recently stood at XX% according to FactSet data" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 14:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1332 engagements
"$AXP American Express shares up around X% adding to a X% YTD gain following better than expected card transaction volumes with revenues up XXX% y/y. They maintained prior FY sales and earnings guidance. We saw record card member spending in the quarter demand for our premium products was strong and our credit performance remained best in class Chief Executive Officer Steve Squeri said in a statement Friday" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 12:22:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1723 engagements
"The eight #OPEC+ countries who have been making voluntary production cuts (Saudi Arabia Russia Iraq UAE Kuwait Kazakhstan Algeria and Oman) agreed to supersize the already supersized return of barrels above the original schedule to +548k/b/d (from +411k/b/d the last three months and the original schedule of +137k/b/d) in August which they said in the press release (link below) identical to last month's hike was: "In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals as reflected in the low oil inventories.This flexibility will allow the group to continue to" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-05 13:11:50 UTC 12.4K followers, 1828 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $BAC $MS $GS $ASML $JNJ $BMNR $SBIT $BTBT $MSTR $MARA $DEO $CVLT $RNLSY $NVDA $BHF $APO $KKR $ARES $BX" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-16 12:25:32 UTC 12.4K followers, 2630 engagements
"Pres Trump seems to confirm that countries hoping for the XX% tariff arrangement the UK has will be disappointed and they'll be lucky to get the Japan deal (15% on all products). Well have a straight simple tariff of anywhere between XX% and XX% Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. A couple of we have XX because we havent been getting along with those countries too well. He said talks with the European Union were serious. If they agree to open up the union to American businesses then we will let them pay a lower tariff Trump said" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 01:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1940 engagements
"BoA: Weve heard upbeat commentary on AI monetization potential but over the long-term the degree of AI monetization remains in question and companies in reinvestment cycles have historically underperformed. In our view AI capex is a bigger tailwind for the market than idiosyncratic AI monetization. Semis are the most obvious beneficiaries but capex growth is expected to slow going forward. AI and the physical buildout of data centers should also lead to more demand for electrification construction utilities commodities etc. ultimately creating more jobs" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1150 engagements
"We got the 3rd (and last) of this weeks #UST note auctions today w/$44bn in 7yrs. As a reminder we had a very good 2yr auction Monday and a not so good 5yr Tuesday so it was a little uncertain what wed see with the 7yr and it was the weakest of the bunch. Bid/cover came in at XXXX the weakest since Aug down from XXXX in Feb (and below the 6-mth avg of 2.69) as like the 5yr indirect bidders werent very interested taking just XXXX% a 3-yr low down from XXXX% in Feb (71.3% 6-mth avg). While direct bidders stepped in to some extent taking XXXX% a 3-yr high up from XXXX% in Feb (19.6%) it still" @neilksethi on X 2025-03-27 20:07:35 UTC 12.4K followers, 1061 engagements
"UK's flash PMI remained in expansion in July but edged back slightly to XXXX from XXXX in June and below the XXXX expected. The manufacturing output index improved to a still-stagnant score of XX suggesting an eight-month contraction in production ended but the overall PMI remained in contraction and the UKs larger services sector suffered a slowdown to reading of XXXX down from XXXX. Firms cut employment at the fastest pace in five months new orders declined after picking up in June export sales fell for a ninth straight month and input price inflation rose. Chris Williamson Chief Business" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 12:41:09 UTC 12.4K followers, 1645 engagements