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[@neilksethi](/creator/twitter/neilksethi)
"Ex-US its overall a light week although we do get the ECBs policy decision on Thursday where a hold is widely expected but what they might hint at about timing of another rate cut is less clear. There are also a few other central bank decisions (Turkey Hungary Nigeria Russia among others). In economic data well get flash PMIs Canada retail sales ECB lending bank lending survey EU consumer confidence Germanys Ifo business sentiment UK public finance data South Korea and Taiwan trade data and GDP and inflation prints from a number of Lat Ams largest economies among other reports. Well also get"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947114052477690116) 2025-07-21 01:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1964 engagements
"Similar to Goldman BoA has seen big buying of industrials: Rolling 2-week inflows into Industrials were the 2nd largest in our data history (largest since Mar. 2015) and in the 97th percentile when normalized by Industrials market cap"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947634733103648960) 2025-07-22 12:28:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2625 engagements
"Jeffries: That the big beautiful bill has now been passed by Congress.without a revolt in the Treasury bond market has been a positive US equities have been celebrating and again with good reason. Still the passage of the bill like last quarters Moody's downgrade will probably mark a chapter in the history books on fiscal deterioration and the resulting decline of the US dollar paper standard. But for now the weaker US dollar and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) area positive for equities in the continuing absence of a Treasury bond revolt"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945913895182647616) 2025-07-17 18:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Earnings will remain heavy but ease off a touch Thurs with XX SPX reporters of which four are $100bn in market cap (BX HON UNP INTC (highest to lowest market caps))"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948166236371902970) 2025-07-23 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1714 engagements
"2Q earnings season will roll on Wed with another XX SPX reports (seven $100bn in market cap (JNJ BAC ASML MS GS PGR PLD (in order of market cap)). Not sure why BoA didnt have ASML on their list"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945267132549488910) 2025-07-15 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3456 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/22/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947782895357006055) 2025-07-22 22:16:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 4056 engagements
"The Week Ahead - 7/13/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1944580078978957446) 2025-07-14 02:09:54 UTC 12.3K followers, 8873 engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $INTC $DECK $BYD $VRSN $NEM $SAM $EW $MHK $FIX $COUR"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948506679160508478) 2025-07-24 22:12:48 UTC 12.4K followers, 2227 engagements
"Given the current environment a nice Fed primer from JPM's Feroli: Fed interest rate policy is set by the #FOMC which is made up of twelve people: the seven members of the Feds Board of Governors based in WashingtonDC the president of the NY Fed and an annually rotating group of four of the XX remaining regional reserve bank presidents. The seven members of the Board of Governors are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. A full term is XX years with one term beginning every two years on even-numbered years. A member who fills an unexpired portion of a term may be reappointed"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946958276802871526) 2025-07-20 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1214 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $NFLX $CVX $HES $SRPT $UNP $NSC $MMM $AXP $IBKR $SLB $SCHW $COIN $CRCL $HOOD $GLXY $BMNR $HBAN $WAL $GSK $RBGLY $META $ALV $RF"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946189244994642326) 2025-07-18 12:44:09 UTC 12.4K followers, 2162 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): 30yr bond yields eyeing "jailbreak" levels (UK XXX% US XXX% Japan 3.2%). no new highs in yields & MOVE index stays around XX = risk on new highs in bond yields & MOVE index XXX = risk off"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946174361087422671) 2025-07-18 11:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2091 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $SBUX $AES $UNH $SEDG $MBLY $WPP $BE $UNCRY $CRBZY $VRNA $JPM $AAPL $OMC $IPG $ENPH $FCX $PENG $RYTM"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942927308957900823) 2025-07-09 12:42:22 UTC 12.4K followers, 1926 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): Historic examples of central bank governor dismissals sparse but always driven by policy conflict over rates currencies or corruption. In every case dismissal coincided with sharp FX declines"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946595888253866389) 2025-07-19 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 8151 engagements
"BBG: The first half saw JP Morgan's market value surpass that of its three largest competitors BofA Citigroup and Wells Fargo combined. It racked up $XX billion of profit in that period more than double its closest rival and widened its lead over Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley in investment-banking revenue. $JPM"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945574163885826295) 2025-07-16 20:00:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 1124 engagements
"BBG: Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says that from a technical point of view he doesn't see "frothiness" when looking down-cap from the heavy-weights in the S&P XXX and Nasdaq indices. We believe that this bull market is broadening out in terms of participation he said. He points to the NYSE advance-decline line a popular indicator that tracks the number of securities rising minus the number falling on the exchange each day which is hitting fresh highs"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948473007363576296) 2025-07-24 19:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1234 engagements
"A BBG survey of economists has about half expecting one more ECB rate cut in September XX% in December while about a quarter think no cut is forthcoming"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946880261796622638) 2025-07-20 10:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1105 engagements
"I held off to see if any more details emerged from the WH but so far not seeing anything after President Trump on social media announced a trade agreement had been reached with Japan setting tariffs on Japanese imports at XX% along with $550bn in investment in the US. Trump said in his post on Truth Social that Japan would open their Country to US automobile imports as well as additional agricultural imports including rice without specifying further details. Also left unclear is whether Japanese automobiles and parts would receive a carve-out from separate XX% tariffs critical sticking point"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947845137637241097) 2025-07-23 02:24:04 UTC 12.4K followers, 2473 engagements
"Goldman's Flood says despite all of the concern over foreign demand for US equities the bank has cut its estimate just $4bn to $300bn in 2025 from the $304bn foreigners bought in 2024. Buybacks will remain the biggest source at $675bn while retail/hedge funds will add $425bn. They forecast though mutual and pension funds will be sellers (-$800bn combined)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1904843272113316309) 2025-03-26 10:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1079 engagements
"In Europe the benchmark #STOXX XXX is up X% as of XXXX ET encouraged by the potential for a EU/US trade deal following the Japan/US deal announced Tuesday moving towards the top of its range since early May. Major European indices are trading solidy higher Germany's DAX: +0.6% U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5% France's CAC 40: +1.0% Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.3% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Despite raised hopes for an EU trade deal the European Union has readied plans to quickly hit the US with XX% tariffs on some XXX billion ($117 billion) worth of goods in the"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948002827915104572) 2025-07-23 12:50:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 1744 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/23/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948148429894623729) 2025-07-23 22:29:15 UTC 12.4K followers, 4106 engagements
"Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also highest close since Oct '21. The index "jumped XXX% on Wednesday topping a previous year-to-date high hit on March XX. Kuaishou Technology Baidu Inc. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the top performers in the gauge. Hong Kongs benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 1.6%. boosted by easing Sino-American trade tensions and gains in heavyweight tech shares." "Investors are also looking to the countrys Politburo meeting later this month to set the tone for policy measures in the second half of the year. Markets have reacted positively to recent moves by"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947995855279022311) 2025-07-23 12:22:58 UTC 12.4K followers, 1908 engagements
"2Q earnings season will roll on with another XX SPX reports (five $100bn in market cap (NFLX GE ABT PEP MMC (in order of market cap))"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945629520591290839) 2025-07-16 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1598 engagements
"Nasdaq positive volume a similar story going from an excellent XXXX% Tuesday considering the -XXXX% loss in the index to XXXX% today. And the weaker positive volume was despite even higher penny/meme stock volumes (I have added clear short squeezes to the list which today included DNUT (but excluding OPEN which I have treated separately thus far) in addition to the sub $X stocks) accounted for XX of the top XX stocks (not including OPEN) by volume (up from X Tuesday X Monday and X Friday) and the total volume in those stocks came in at 3.3bn up from 2.2bn Tues & 2.6bn on Monday or a huge"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948131507412889835) 2025-07-23 21:22:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 4615 engagements
"US equity indices started modestly higher and traded with an upward bias today again led by small caps with the RUT finishing up +1.5%. Nasdaq trailed up +0.6% ahead of GOOG TSLA IBM earnings after the close"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948112693891596344) 2025-07-23 20:07:15 UTC 12.4K followers, 1896 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $TSLA $GEO $CXW $MOH $SEDG $STZ $WNS $CGEMY $SHEL $MGM $AAPL $NSANY $NFLX $WOLF"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942214034184343687) 2025-07-07 13:28:04 UTC 12.4K followers, 1927 engagements
"The uncertainty surrounding Ishiba's future (and potential increased gov't spending) along with the finalizing of a US/Japan trade deal and BoJ Deputy Gov Uchida saying the deal means "likelihood has risen" for a rate hike all pressuring Japan's JGB sovereign bond market with a 40-yr bond auction today seeing its weakest demand since 2011. The bid-to-cover ratio a measure of demand came in at XXXXX compared to XXXXX at the previous auction. The bonds yielded XXXXX% the highest on record. Bond yields Wednesday rose across the curve"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947994682421649790) 2025-07-23 12:18:18 UTC 12.4K followers, 1344 engagements
"Earnings are expected to be the star of the show Wed with our heaviest day of the week w/36 SPX reporters of which eleven are $100bn in market cap including two of the Mag-7 in GOOG/GOOGL & TSLA (the others are IBM TMUS NBOW T GEV NEE TMO BSX & APH (highest to lowest market caps) and CME is right there at $99bn)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947803847789056340) 2025-07-22 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2470 engagements
"As always a nice collection of posts/articles from @TheChartReport. One is from the excellent @RyanDetrick who notes today is the seasonal peak for July gains (since 1950)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945814503045607750) 2025-07-17 11:55:03 UTC 12.3K followers, 13.9K engagements
"BoA's Hartnett: Bubble VIBBE's Bubble brewing in US equity leadership. Watch the VIBBE's (Valuation Inflation Bonds Breadth Exponential price moves). He says "Jailbreaks" are $SOX6k $MAGS $XX $BKX $XXX but "biggest tell would be stocks totally ignoring a rise in inflation expectations & bond yields to new highs". "ultimately proper bubble always ended by jump in bond yields & real yields (if proper bubble next XX months bond yields rise until AI/Big Tech customers squeal)""
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946170589355327721) 2025-07-18 11:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 9006 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $RUN $FSLR $ENPH $DDOG $JPM $GS $BAC $SHAK $VRT $KEY $COIN $CC $UNCRY $GLNCY $NVS $POAHY $LVMY $AAPL $META $AMZN $XOM $HON"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942566142700302824) 2025-07-08 12:47:14 UTC 12.4K followers, 1992 engagements
"MarketWatch: More U.S. homes sold last year were bought by people age XX and over than by people under age XX according to Jim Reid head of macroeconomic and thematic research at Deutsche Bank Research. "In fact XX% of homes were purchased by those aged XX and over" Reid wrote in a Monday client note. Messaging from the Trump administration has been "mixed" when it comes to which segments of the population it plans to prioritize Reid said noting that high rates and elevated home prices are stalling the typical "handoff" of property to younger generations"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947728350321250403) 2025-07-22 18:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"DB also has seen substantial buying from CTAs in US equities the past two weeks (although sees overall positioning as not stretched) and CTAs remain full of foreign equities: CTAs continued to increase their overall equity longs taking it to the highest in XX months (90th percentile) mostly driven by elevated positioning outside the US. Within the US they increased longs in the S&P XXX (57th percentile from 26th two weeks ago) and in the Nasdaq XXX (66th percentile from 30th) but remained modestly short the Russell 2000 (32nd percentile from 7th percentile two weeks ago)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947360929839988820) 2025-07-21 18:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1852 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index shot +2% higher to the best close since June 2021 following the Japan/US trade deal announced Tuesday. Major regional equity indices also ended mostly higher led by Japan's Nikkei (+3.5%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+1.6%) pushed to the highest close since Oct '21 as did the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. Japan's Nikkei: +3.5% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.6% China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH India's Sensex: +0.7% South Korea's Kospi: +0.4% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Trump on social media"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948006452968190257) 2025-07-23 13:05:05 UTC 12.4K followers, 2095 engagements
"Well get the unofficial kickoff to 2Q earnings season Tuesday with JP Morgan (JPM). Joining them in terms of SPX reporters will be BLK WFC C BK STT JBHT and OMC (in order of market cap the first three along with JPM are all $100bn)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1944904744486756767) 2025-07-14 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2107 engagements
"MarketWatch: Data from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage shows that quantitative strategies are suffering their worst drawdown since the end of 2023. So-called systematic managers (that trade through Goldman) have accumulated a XXX% loss since the beginning of June to take their year-to-date performance down to a still positive XXX% on the year. The bank's analysts attribute the decline to a momentum sell-off a rally in high-beta and high-volatility companies and some unwinding of crowded trades. Bruno Schneller managing partner at Erlen Capital Management a Swiss asset manager says recent moves"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948065321803202664) 2025-07-23 16:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 9379 engagements
"MarketWatch: Morgan Stanley says "the pace of the rally is slowing" with "retail demand for US equities . falling from a pace of $3.5bn/day at the start of the month to $1.5bn/day now." In addition they expect "the systematic bid to halve to $2.5bn per day by the end of the month" while "a high share of companies" remain in their buyback blackout as "1H July seasonal equity strength typically weakens through from now through August." (see previous posts on this). While they see a short-term bull case if "HFs still need to buy into the rally" their focus is on the fact that "passive inflows"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946152970451595494) 2025-07-18 10:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1988 engagements
"Well the scenario that was concerning stock and bond investors in Japanese assets came to pass with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party along with longtime partner Komeito losing its majority in the chamber (as reported by public broadcaster NHK) after the bloc failed to win the XX seats it needed to maintain control. Overall the ruling coalition lost XX seats falling three seats short of a majority according to the NHK. The result is the second poor election showing for Ishiba since he became premier last October even though the coalitions tally of 47"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947119337770287381) 2025-07-21 02:20:00 UTC 12.3K followers, 4064 engagements
"Tier1Alpha who gives a more recent update (this morning) says those strikes are likely resetting in a relatively favorable fashion for equities: Dealers will start the week long gamma implying the conditions for lower volatility remain firmly in place. That said following last week's monthly options expiration overall gamma levels should be at their cyclical lows. Consequently a modest uptick in realized volatility is reasonable to expect though it will likely occur within the context of a broader low-volatility regime. In practice if we were to see a material rise in volatility from here it"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947270804326027327) 2025-07-21 12:21:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 4322 engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947778438556729845) 2025-07-22 21:59:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 3106 engagements
"Nasdaq positive volume also good and remaining more elevated than the NYSE at XXXX% but that was actually a touch below XXXX% Wed despite a larger index gain Thurs (+0.74% vs +0.25%). At least in part that was due to penny stock volumes (which I treat as sub $2) while remaining elevated falling to the lows of the week accounting for just X of the top XX stocks by volume (down from X Wed & Tuesday X Monday and XX Friday) while the total volume in those stocks came in at 1.46bn or XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume down from XXXX% Wed and XX% Monday (around the XX% Tuesday)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945949653121286593) 2025-07-17 20:52:05 UTC 12.4K followers, 8172 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $ALK $XYZ $PINS $DLTR $TGT $DPZ $CLF $VZ $SRPT $IVZ $QQQ $MSFT $RYAAY $DYNX $ROP"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947274577320554702) 2025-07-21 12:36:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 2240 engagements
"The NYSE McClellan Summation Index (red line "what the avg stock is doing") has rolled over after reaching the highest since Oct last week"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947043839572848734) 2025-07-20 21:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1277 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $PEP $SBUX $TSM $GE $USB $CARS $TOST $UAL $ADM $SRPT $MP $ABT $SHAK $RBLX $NVS"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945832254409708012) 2025-07-17 13:05:35 UTC 12.4K followers, 1774 engagements
"@myalphaport6688 Well buy the dip has been the place to be since the pandemic so retail has done well. Hedge funds have made money but not as much as retail. Institutions a little worse. Corporates have been steady buyers and have gotten better about buying more in declines"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948123309549203667) 2025-07-23 20:49:26 UTC 12.4K followers, XX engagements
"The VVIX (VIX of the VIX) like the VIX remained in the area its traded in the past XX sessions at XXXX still under Nomuras Charlie McElligotts stress level of XXX (consistent with moderate daily moves in the VIX over the next XX days (normal is 80-100))"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946988474990796833) 2025-07-20 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2187 engagements
"MarketWatch: We already have TACO now Volkmar Baur a currency analyst for Commerzbank offers another food metaphor for the Trump tariff strategy: salami. Describing the market's calm reaction to tariff threats this time around he says it could be because the threats are being made gradually rather than all at once. "Three months ago that was enough to cause a sell-off on the market. But since the news is coming in slice by slice this time the market seems to be coping better than it did at the beginning of April" he said"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1943726984514740473) 2025-07-11 17:40:00 UTC 12.3K followers, 5680 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are indicated modestly higher (as theyve been every session this week) on a less newsy overnight highlighted by Fed Gov Waller calling for a rate cut at the end of the month with the SPX on track for the 3rd weekly gain in the last X weeks aided by overall strong corporate earnings. Later this morning well get preliminary July UMich consumer sentiment. Elsewhere bond yields are edging lower and the dollar is falling back from 3-week highs. Perhaps aided by that commodities are broadly higher with crude gold copper and nat gas all up. Bitcoin is"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946196517452497307) 2025-07-18 13:13:03 UTC 12.4K followers, 14.7K engagements
"BoA: Last week saw the largest selling of $EUR/USD this year with "the lack of Real Money $USD supply raising risks of a summer USD rally." $DXY"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947678018404847962) 2025-07-22 15:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1050 engagements
"Goldman (Hatzius): We have made several changes to our trade policy assumptions on the back of President Trumps latest threats. While we don't expect the letter tariffs scheduled for August X to take effect we now build in an increase in the "reciprocal" tariff rate from XX% to 15%. By contrast we think the XX% pharma tariff will be delayed until after the 2026 midterm election. This still implies an increase in the average effective tariff rate of about 14pp in 2025 but we now expect another 3pp increase to nearly XX% in 2026. The risks to these assumptions are two-sided but generally tilted"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947597488921166069) 2025-07-22 10:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3311 engagements
"#FOMC rate cut pricing from CME's Fedwatch tool little changed following CPI with 2025 edging down -1bps to 47bps with July cut at X% Sept at 62%. Two cuts 68%. 2026 remains at 71bps of cuts priced"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945107730273890335) 2025-07-15 13:06:35 UTC 12.4K followers, 2813 engagements
"JPM: Market liquidity conditions have seen notable improvement for US Equities. They also note that "low realized macro volatility has helped to induce low market volatility in conjunction with other factors such as retail investors and corporate buybacks continuing to act as a backstop to drawdowns in Equities as well as economic and financial leverage overall remaining relatively contained and thus far not served to amplify these shocks.""
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948412609998266745) 2025-07-24 15:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Goldman (Hatzius): We estimate that a XX% US tariff on imports from Europe would shave XXX% off Euro area GDP by the end of 2026 (relative to the impact of our baseline assumption of 15%). this means that the risks to our Euro area growth and interest rate forecasts are tilted to the downside. Outside of tariffs however we are cautiously optimistic on Euro area growth with a cyclical pickup in Germany on the back of the fiscal expansion and continued strength in Spain. The flip side is that the ECB easing cycle is probably ending although we still expect one last cut to XXXX% in September"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947952328100704659) 2025-07-23 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1266 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): bears position for breakdown via defensive healthcare staples utilities (now just XX% of S&P XXX index lowest since 2000)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947620136896368776) 2025-07-22 11:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 12.9K engagements
"In Europe the benchmark #STOXX XXX is edging lower -XXX% as of 8.40am ET remaining in the middle of its range since early May. Major European indices are also trading lower. STOXX Europe 600: -XXX% Germany's DAX: -XXX% U.K.'s FTSE 100: -XXX% France's CAC 40: -XXX% Italy's FTSE MIB: -XXX% Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Stocks moved lower after the Financial Times reported Friday that President Donald Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of XX% to XX% in talks with the European Union. The report also said that Trump would be content to keep auto sector"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947277527136809091) 2025-07-21 12:48:35 UTC 12.4K followers, 1612 engagements
"Enjoy the weekend. After a busy week well get a lighter one next week before we get one of those weeks to end the month (a packed schedule of economic and earnings reports and central bank policy decisions along with the Aug 1st scheduled implementation date for Pres Trumps new tariffs). For next week though its lighter on the economic calendar with the headliners flash PMIs new and existing home sales durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. The Fed will be in their blackout period (it appears Chair Powell will be making opening remarks at a banking conference but given hes a stickler"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946555706003320917) 2025-07-19 13:00:20 UTC 12.4K followers, 1713 engagements
"$ITB On the back of a +16% gain in the largest homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. $DHI as well as a +12% gain in PulteGroup Inc. $PHM after earnings the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF $ITB is up nearly +8% it's best day since Nov '22 to a 5-mth high. "Many of the biggest builders in the country continue to surprise Wall Street to the upside with how well they are running their businesses in this environment John Burns CEO of John Burns Research and Consulting told MarketWatch. In other words the results werent as bad as investors were expecting namely gross margins and the expectations around"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947746469819388403) 2025-07-22 19:52:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1095 engagements
"MarketWatch: Alex Manzara at R.J. O'Brien makes the point that even if the Trump administration is successful in getting a more pliant Fed there's still another issue in its quest to lower mortgage rates. The spread between the 10-year note and 30-year mortgage rates has increased from about XXX basis points between 2017 and 2019 to XXX basis points now. That's as the White House is contemplating freeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government control -- a move that could potentially send the spread still higher. "If Fannie and Freddie are privatized it's likely the market will demand"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948453126115049592) 2025-07-24 18:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1219 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GM $LMT $KO $NXPI $STLD $MEDP $CSX $NSC $DHI $PHM $NOC $ZION $ACI $AGYS $CALX $AZN $SNY $QS $SRPT $PMI $SHW"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947639493697188146) 2025-07-22 12:46:55 UTC 12.4K followers, 2909 engagements
"Factset: 2025 revenues are now expected to grow +5.1% down -XXX% since Dec 31st and down from XXX% at the start of the quarter (April 1st). Energy is the only sector expected to have negative revenue growth (although thats been cut by two-thirds since the start of the quarter)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947601262653984847) 2025-07-22 10:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1304 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DAL $EWZ $KLG $AMD $TREX $BYRN $PTC $HELE $BX $WPP $MP $UAL $AAL $ALK $LUV $ROKU $RARE $MREO $AMD $CAG"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1943292935908249805) 2025-07-10 12:55:15 UTC 12.4K followers, 2456 engagements
"For now shares have moved back to around unchanged levels. Here's CNBC's link for their updates as they compile the numbers. Cloud revenues and traffic acquisition costs also above expectations. $GOOG"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948114710634926338) 2025-07-23 20:15:15 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"MarketWatch: Hedge funds successfully negotiated a volatile second quarter and expanded total funds managed to $XXXX trillion their highest figure yet. The latest HFR Global Hedge Fund Industry Report released Friday registered the seventh consecutive quarterly increment with investors committing $XXX billion of fresh capital to the asset class. In all the first half of 2025 saw the strongest inflows into hedge funds for a decade. Both asset and performance gains were widespread across every strategy sub-strategy and cross-section of exposure as managers demonstrated tactical flexibility""
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946233500971008402) 2025-07-18 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1157 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/21/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947418121691865326) 2025-07-21 22:07:16 UTC 12.4K followers, 4438 engagements
"Earnings will continue to build Tuesday with XX SPX reporters of which nine are $100bn in market cap (KO PM RTX TXN ISRG COF DHR CB LMT (highest to lowest market caps))"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947438943932408038) 2025-07-21 23:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1516 engagements
"Along the same lines CNBC reports that The Invesco S&P XXX High Beta ETF ( $SPHB) on Monday hit a new intraday all-time high going back to its inception in 2011. Stocks leading the ETF include Albemarle Super Micro ON Semi Teradyne CrowdStrike Deckers Freeport McMoRan. All are up more than 2%"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947330730109043197) 2025-07-21 16:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2240 engagements
"Factset: Sell ratings on the Financials sector ticked up to X% to join Utilities and Staples with the most. The overall SPX has just X% sell ratings. Interestingly Staples has by far the most hold ratings (53%). Next closest is Utilities (45%). Energy continues to have the most buy ratings (67%) but Tech has moved into number two (65%)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946993256363094075) 2025-07-20 17:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1084 engagements
"Looking at CTA (trend follower) positioning in the US indices BOA says: According to our model trend followers added to equity longs this week especially in the US as the S&P XXX and NASDAQ-100 reached new all-time highs. In fact long positioning in NASDAQ-100 futures looks to be in consensus across short- medium- and long-term trend followers which increases the potential impact should CTAs unwind in a reversal. Our closest NASDAQ unwind trigger is still more X% lower from Fridays close with selling accelerating at X% lower from the index high. So BoA sees CTAs as continuing to add to equity"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947253974815424943) 2025-07-21 11:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1965 engagements
"BBG story on the widening gap b/w 2025 & 2026 rate cut bets since April now around 76bps from 25bps. Whoever comes in next that person is going to have a bias towards lowering rates said Ed Al-Hussainy global rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle. In addition the economy is less likely to be resilient next year opening the door for more policy easing he said"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948070606899130446) 2025-07-23 17:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1541 engagements
"As noted at the start of the week its a light calendar for US economic data this week but Thursday is the one busy day with flash PMIs new home sales Chicago National Activity Indes and weekly jobless claims. The Fed will remain in their blackout. Well get a 10yr TIPS reopening (so far we havent had a TIPS auction get media coverage and nobody paid any attention to todays 20yr auction so Id imagine you can ignore this one). Earnings will remain heavy with XX SPX reporters of which four are $100bn in market cap (BX HON UNP INTC (highest to lowest market caps)). EX US DM also our busiest day"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948171270597566906) 2025-07-24 00:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2794 engagements
"MarketWatch: Mark Newton head of technical strategy at Fundstrat says the VIX looks to be close to bottoming and likely could trend higher in August. "Overall I feel that VIX likely can rise to the mid-20s and possibly mid-30s by October meaning that implied volatility at current levels is currently cheap in my view" says Newton in a note published late Tuesday. Consequently any decline in the VIX in coming weeks may represent an opportunity to buy cheap volatility on a 2-3 month timeframe he adds. "Bottom line any move down to 14-15.50 would signal an appealing risk/reward opportunity for"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948046699706105861) 2025-07-23 15:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2240 engagements
"Goldman Liquidity off the bottom "but still well below the YTD average of $9.31mm and the 1yr average of $12.59mm." "liquidity is in the gutter.Hard to play QB offense until you know you have your O-line" (that's a football (American) analogy)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1903062536716464455) 2025-03-21 12:34:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"BBG: The S&P XXX hasn't posted a X% up or down day since late June (17 sessions) the longest streak since December's 20-session streak. An old saying on Wall Street is Never short a dull market said Dave Lutz equity sales trader and macro strategist at Jonestrading. History shows quiet markets tend to drift upward"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947272650226606581) 2025-07-21 12:29:13 UTC 12.4K followers, 9293 engagements
"Despite the surge in global bond yields a net X% expect of GFMS respondents see global CPI to be higher in XX months time down 7ppt MoM. "FMS inflation expectations have dropped 50ppt since April the biggest 3-month decline since Jun22.""
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945415610877239374) 2025-07-16 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1859 engagements
"Earnings lighten up considerably Friday with just X SPX reporters of which none are $100bn in market cap (largest is HCA at $87bn)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948528371849462091) 2025-07-24 23:39:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1490 engagements
"June retail sales come in much stronger than expected +0.64% m/m (after -XXXX% in May which was the most since Mar 23) on a broad advance led by a rebound in auto sales to +1.2% from a -XXX% drop in May. Gasoline stations came in flat the first non-negative number since Jan. Stripping those out though still saw core sales very healthy at +0.55% above expectations for +0.3% and up from -XXXXX% in May led by increases in building material/garden +0.9% apparel +0.9% grocery +0.5% health care +0.5% gen merch +0.5% misc +1.8% and bars/restaurants the only services category which rebounded to +0.6%"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945830909107712300) 2025-07-17 13:00:15 UTC 12.3K followers, 3552 engagements
"This was interesting. Under a provision of the tax code intended to encourage entrepreneurship by letting Americans create new companies with existing assets an investor can take their portfolio and form an ETF. Once the ETF is launched they can use flows in and out to rebalance away from oversized positions without incurring a taxable gain. You say Gee Nvidias gotten a little bit too rich for my blood Id like to get rid of it says Elwood. The problem you would have is the only way to do it in a separately managed account would be to sell it recognize some taxable gain. Instead you "transfer"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947669211527974928) 2025-07-22 14:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2093 engagements
"MarketWatch: The vigorous embrace of high-beta names has many analysts worried. One is Dubravko Lakos-Bujas strategist at JPMorgan. In a note published Monday he and his team observe that there have been three episodes already this year where investing style factors have seen extreme crowding episodes. In January investors piled into quality growth large-size companies reflecting a desire to own the AI-linked mega caps. Then as concerns about AI overspend infected sentiment and tariff policy raised recession fears April saw a rush into stocks deemed low volatility safer. The latest bout of"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947303049082659274) 2025-07-21 14:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 5125 engagements
"Despite Gov Waller's best efforts with another interview on BBG (link below) that hints at a potential dissent for a July rate cut #FOMC rate cut pricing from CME's Fedwatch tool has seen just a small adjustment off the lowest since February. A July cut remains very unlikely at X% and even Sept is at just XX% rebounding a bit from XX% a day ago. Less than X cuts are priced (46bps up from 43bps) this year with another almost X in 2026 (72bps). That's down from 92bps of 2025 cuts expected and 135bps of cuts through 2026 on May 1st"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946243565560246525) 2025-07-18 16:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3320 engagements
"The Lloyds Business Barometer sentiment index rose XX points to XX in May the highest since August. The rebound in business confidence suggests that firms might be in a stronger position for the next quarter said Hann-Ju Ho senior economist at Lloyds Commercial Banking. The rise in confidence is driven by a sharp increase in economic optimism reflecting the recovery in financial markets amid the easing of global trade tensions. The survey also showed that businesses are more upbeat about their own prospects and the economic outlook. The gauge of expected staffing levels rose suggesting more"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1928281459758092718) 2025-05-30 02:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1729 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged higher +0.2% as it continues its recent chop a little below the highest levels since Sep XX hit two weeks ago. Major regional indices were mostly higher. Asian markets ended mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei +0.6% Hong Kong's Hang Seng -XXX% China's Shanghai Composite +0.4% India's Nifty -XXX% South Korea's Kospi +0.2% and Australia's All Ordinaries +0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Donald Trump said he would send letters to more than XXX countries notifying them their tariff rates could be XX% or XX% as he forges ahead"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945842967777866203) 2025-07-17 13:48:10 UTC 12.4K followers, 1443 engagements
"Goldman (Hatzius): Chinas GDP beat consensus expectations in Q2 and our full-year 2025 forecast has edged up to 4.7%. The bigger picture is unchanged with strength in industrial production and exports but weakness in housing and retail sales (outside of the "cash for clunkers" program). The resulting imbalance between supply and demand has pushed Chinas current account surplus up to XXX% of GDP in Q1. Relative to Chinas GDP this is far smaller than the surpluses seen at the peak of the first China shock of the 2000s. But relative to GDP outside of China it is a new record. The growing"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947489526651191732) 2025-07-22 02:51:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1495 engagements
"With the banks a major focus of earnings reports this week Factset notes expectations are for XXX% y/y earnings growth for Financials led by Consumer Finance at XX% (led by Capital One $COF). Banks though are expected to fall -XX% as a drop in Diversified Banks (-13%) outweighs gains in Regional Banks (+18%) due mostly to $JPM. "If JPMorgan Chase were excluded the estimated earnings growth rate for the Financials sector would improve to XXX% from 2.4%." Insurance is expected at XX% with Property & Casualty Insurance (26%) and Insurance Brokers (14%) higher but Reinsurance (-13%) and Life &"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1944431878792229124) 2025-07-13 16:21:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1164 engagements
"BBG: Firms such as Invesco Ltd. Fidelity International Ltd. and JPMorgan Asset Management are reinforcing bullish bets across technology shares from the US to Asia as well as on emerging-market assets. The high-octane wager is that while President Donald Trump is threatening to disrupt the economic order anew he will step back from the brink. People have really bought into this belief that there is a Trump put that if markets correct or if US interest rates go up Trump will back off as he did in April: that trade is on said Chang Hwan Sung a multi-asset portfolio manager in Invescos"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947649078193754340) 2025-07-22 13:25:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1079 engagements
"BoA on EPFR flows week through Wed: Foreign inflows to: -US Treasuries past X mths ($0.5bn) weakest since Feb '17; -US stocks $2bn down from $34bn in Jan US share of global equity flows XX% YTD vs XX% in '24"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946168975856976183) 2025-07-18 11:23:36 UTC 12.4K followers, 3222 engagements
"Goldman's Nelson Ambrust says the selling Tuesday "was a X on a 1-10 scale in terms of overall activity levels" with "35.979m total puts trading in the US yesterday - the highest non-Friday expiry day ever." "on a 2-week rolling basis (since Feb 18th when YTD Fundamental L/S returns peaked) global equities on the Prime book have seen thelargest 2-week notional net selling in the last XX years.""
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1897381099216757086) 2025-03-05 20:18:00 UTC 12.3K followers, 2183 engagements
"% of stocks over 200-DMAs (red line) not confirming the new highs in the Nasdaq"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947048872699641922) 2025-07-20 21:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1796 engagements
"June existing home sales fall back -XXX% m/m to a 9-mth low as they bump along at levels near the least since just after the GFC at 3.93mn at what I would imagine is the slowest pace for June since June 2009 (after the worst March April and May since then). Note as these are closings contracts were signed 1-3 mths earlier. Single-family sales were -X% m/m to 3.57mn +0.6% y/y while condo sales were unchanged m/m -XXX% y/y. Sales rose in the West but fell in the Northeast Midwest and South (the largest housing market). All though but the NE were up modestly from a year ago. "High mortgage rates"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948026303094858045) 2025-07-23 14:23:57 UTC 12.4K followers, 1638 engagements
"$GOOG $GOOGL Alphabet shares jump in a $XX band following the release of earnings which showed beats across the board but that also includes cap ex (higher than expected)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948113554017546363) 2025-07-23 20:10:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 2290 engagements
"Morningstar: Following several of their own launches in the space BlackRock predicted in March that outcome ETF assets will surge to $XXX billion by 2030. Outcome ETFs as defined by BlackRock include covered call ETFs buffer ETFs and some others. All use options to deliver a targeted outcome. Covered call ETFs fall into the derivative-income category. These ETFs typically sell call options against a long position in some underlying asset like the S&P XXX index to generate income. The largest ETF in the category and currently the largest active ETF JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF $JEPI"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947713251183366345) 2025-07-22 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1641 engagements
"Goldman estimates systematic macro global equity buyers added $30bn of net length last week ($67bn in the last X month) and will add another $42bn in the next X week ($107bn in the next one month in the baseline scenario) driven by CTA/trend followers. "Nearly $42bn or XX% of the global figure is expected to be in US markets.""
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947355899267584282) 2025-07-21 18:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1429 engagements
"BBG: Invesco sees medium-term opportunities in Korea due to optimism over the governments corporate-governance reforms. The nations benchmark Kospi index has already gained more than XX% this year making it one of the worlds best-performing major equity gauges"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947476482596769974) 2025-07-22 01:59:10 UTC 12.4K followers, 1400 engagements
"BoA: In FX the US Dollar declined again this week despite a pop higher in reaction to the strong US jobs report on Thursday. Our model suggests that CTAs still have $USD shorts vs $EUR $GBP $MXN and $CAD. In other currencies $JPY and $AUD longs are less stretched with JPY selling expected next week following this weeks USD strengthening vs JPY"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942154120049414241) 2025-07-07 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1079 engagements
"Goldman (Kostin) notes that the weak dollar "tailwind" disproportionately aided the Mag-7. Our economists expect continued USD weakness boosting relative outperformance of international-facing stocks although Kostin also expects US economic growth to outpace most other major economies in both 2025 and 2026 which should provide a relative tailwind to domestic-facing firms"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948018261473231314) 2025-07-23 13:52:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1554 engagements
"DB (Reid): One WOW chart - S&P XXX dividend yields are now within just XX basis points of their all-time low last reached during the tech bubble in 2000. So does a near-record low dividend yield matter Not while companies are flush with cash and happy to repurchase their own stock. But it does make the U.S. market more high beta. If a downturn hits buybacks will stop far more quickly than dividends potentially pulling away a key pillar of market support. And with dividend yields now approaching all-time lows theres a case to be made that valuations and investor expectations have become"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1943626069556506753) 2025-07-11 10:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1270 engagements
"In line with the slowing credit card growth in the May consumer credit report BoA sees slowing in American Express borrowing from consumers and small businesses: "June ending loan balances of $122.7B were up XXX% y/y a marked deceleration from the XXXX% y/y in May. US Consumer growth was up XXX% y/y down slightly from XXX% y/y in May and US Small Business was up XXX% y/y down markedly from XXXX% y/y in the prior month." Write offs edged up but remained contained: "The net write-off rate was XXXX% for US Consumer and XXXX% for US Small Business which resulted in a combined loss rate of 2.23%"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945176535507349530) 2025-07-15 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1058 engagements
"Interesting note from @Chartfest1's always good daily post on The Street: I saw a chart of the ETF (BUZZ) (VanEck Social Sentiment ETF) in BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinskys excellent missive Thursday. Wowee. That is some move since June and now it has begun to go parabolic. Naturally this took me to the ratio of the (QQQ)'s to BUZZ and heres another wow: Look at how poorly the QQQs have done relative to BUZZ since April. Think about this we consider the QQQs to be the pinnacle of technology stocks yet they practically look like the healthcare stocks relative to the S&P when"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946973375479570689) 2025-07-20 16:40:00 UTC 12.3K followers, 1591 engagements
"For the week a heavy slate of earnings with XXX SPX components representing XX% of the SPX (by earnings weight) reporting the 2nd heaviest week of the season with XX $100bn in market cap (GOOG/GOOGL TSLA KO PM IBM TMUS BX RTX NOW TXN T ISRG VZ TMO GEV BSX NEE HON COF DHR UNP APH CB LMT LMT CME (and INTC is right there at $99.5bn))"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947079071873048990) 2025-07-20 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2896 engagements
"Former Goldman derivatives/macro head Scott Rubner now at Citadel says it's not yet time to fade the rally. "We're not there yet." But he says you might want to start adding protection come the end of August with Sep 2nd representing the peak in terms of positive SPX flows. But for the time being he says "the pain trade is higher" with companies facing a low bar for earnings beats systematic strategies still having room to add given the decline in realized volatility" CTA sell thresholds well below spot retail investors still buying dips ("you only live once" is their motto he says) with"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946158003302080843) 2025-07-18 10:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 10.4K engagements
"Goldman: The equity market appears to be unconcerned by the recent tariff hike announcements. The S&P XXX fell sharply immediately following tariff announcements earlier this year with a basket of stocks with broad tariff exposure (GS24TRFS) underperforming on those days. However US equities have largely ignored the most recent tariff announcements (Exhibit 2). The S&P XXX notched a new record high this week and the GS Tariff Risk basket is just X% off its high. Our client conversations indicate that many investors believe tariff rates will eventually settle lower than what the recent"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947242650664349927) 2025-07-21 10:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2159 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $JPM $WFC $C $BLK $CRWV $ERIC $BK $ACI $STT $NVDA $TTD $SEDG $ENPH $NFG $AMD $AAPL $MP $UBER $BIDU $GOOG $BAM $ANSS"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945108941928538360) 2025-07-15 13:11:24 UTC 12.4K followers, 2194 engagements
"June new home sales edge higher after falling in May by the second most since Sep XX to slowest pace since Oct but at +0.6% to 627k it was well under the +4.3% expected to 650k keeping them at the bottom of their range since Jan XX. Regionally sales in the South (representing over XX% of all new home sales) were up +5.1% after falling in May by the most since July 2013 to the least since November XX. Sales also grew in the MW (+6.3%) but fell sharply in the NE (-27.6% to the slowest pace since Feb 23) and less sharply in the West (-8.4% to the least since Nov) Total sales are -XXX% y/y Note:"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948388084707402122) 2025-07-24 14:21:33 UTC 12.4K followers, 4237 engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TMUS $LVS $IBM $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $VKNG $MOH $URI"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948144026131325384) 2025-07-23 22:11:45 UTC 12.4K followers, 3172 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/24/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948508035187368371) 2025-07-24 22:18:11 UTC 12.4K followers, 2393 engagements
"Yardeni: Analysts are turning more optimistic about the companies they follow. The percentage of S&P XXX companies with positive three-month percent changes in forward earnings has increased from XX% in early April to XX% currently (chart)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947315631340019747) 2025-07-21 15:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3089 engagements
"Thoughts from Goldman's Rich P on equity market Kevin Warsh comments & equity issuance: The equity market felt a bit heavy yday. think the positioning and sentiment comments from yday reflect a market that finally has some length in it. The discretionary crowd is back in and net leverage is basically back to where they were in Feb (ok L/S ratio isnt but the market is at the highs and people are longer we can debate the degree.) This by itself is not a reason to be bearish but just a reflection that the asymmetries may have shifted.Think were back to watching rates. To echo consensus the curve"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942561384186691595) 2025-07-08 12:28:19 UTC 12.4K followers, 1094 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are modestly higher following the announcement yesterday of a US/Japan trade agreement and as corporate earnings reports continue to pour in. Later this morning well get existing home sales along with weekly EIA petroleum inventories. After the close well get earnings from GOOG & TSLA among others (CMG IBM etc.). Elsewhere bond yields are edging higher and the dollar is as well. Copper is also extending higher while crude gold bitcoin and nat gas are all lower. $SPX +0.4% $NDX +0.1% $RUT +0.6%"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948008998688391224) 2025-07-23 13:15:12 UTC 12.4K followers, 1238 engagements
"US equity indices started the day little changed at the large cap level but in the red for the DJIA & RUT and that's how they finished with a reverse performance from Wed (Nasdaq leading +0.2% RUT giving back yesterday's gains -1.4%)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948476653937561941) 2025-07-24 20:13:29 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Well get the unofficial kickoff to 2Q earnings season with JP Morgan on Tuesday. In total well get XX SPX reporters this week including XX $100bn in market cap (in order JPM NFLX JNJ BAC GE WFC ABT MS AXP GS PEP BLK SCHW C PGR MMC PLD). As a side note I didnt realize that C had fallen so far down the list of the biggest financials"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1944542608468115534) 2025-07-13 23:41:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 4063 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $CCL $ULCC $UAL $AAL $DAL $JBLU $ALK $LUV $CHWY $KBH $LMT $RTX $OIH $XOM $V $MA $FFBC $THO $SNOW $UBER $LYFT $BBVA $NVO $FI $SBUX"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1937493784486371469) 2025-06-24 12:51:29 UTC 12.4K followers, 2219 engagements
"Nasdaq positive volume was very good at XXXX% considering the -XXXX% loss in the index (it was XXXX% Mon on a +0.38% gain). And the stronger positive volume was despite a slight pull back in penny stock volumes (which I treat as sub $2) although they accounted for X of the top XX stocks by volume (up from X Monday and X Friday) but the total volume in those stocks came in at 2.2bn down from 2.6bn on Monday or XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume down from XXXX% Monday (but up from XXXX% Friday). Meme stock Opendoor also saw about XX% less trading on Tuesday at 1.06bn shares down from 1.86bn Monday"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947767563464937539) 2025-07-22 21:15:49 UTC 12.4K followers, 1864 engagements
"The Week Ahead - 7/20/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947109387199238611) 2025-07-21 01:40:28 UTC 12.4K followers, 9438 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up +0.3% Monday as it pushes to fresh nearly 4-yr highs. Major regional equity indices began the week on a mostly higher note as well while Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday. Japan's Nikkei: HOLIDAY Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.7% China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7% India's Sensex: +0.5% South Korea's Kospi: +0.7% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Japan is facing trade and political uncertainty after a historic defeat for the prime ministers ruling party. Shigeru Ishiba is trying to buy time for his"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947281264555245655) 2025-07-21 13:03:26 UTC 12.4K followers, 1513 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $HLT $HAS $T $COF $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP $RKT $NOK $ASML $MS $MCO $GEV $LII"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947999360307900837) 2025-07-23 12:36:54 UTC 12.4K followers, 2376 engagements
"Were seeing an inflation market pricing a premium around the Fed independence risk said Meghan Swiber a US rates strategist at Bank of America. Ultimately if youre putting pressure on the Fed in an environment where unemployment is low and were still seeing inflation a far cry from the Feds target you ultimately have the market trading and perceiving more persistent upside risk to the inflation landscape. The nightmare scenario is the Fed loses its independence tariff inflation is big and the fiscal policy turns out to be more simulative ahead of mid-term election and its all happening at the"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947290465130500185) 2025-07-21 13:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2495 engagements
"As noted two weeks ago were now into the meat of the April/May volatility on the 3-mth realized volatility lookback which you can see by the sharp drop in the chart of realized volatility and well continue to drop some big numbers including XXX XXX XXX & XXX% lookback days. That should see the 3-mth lookback realized volatility continue to to drop like a rock. The 1-mth lookback though continues to remain much less favorable (although it did drop a bit last week) and will likely not provide much buying power (but would provide selling on a jump in volatility). While we do get two days of 1%"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947350862789284001) 2025-07-21 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1097 engagements
"Leveraged ETF AUM in the two largest single stock ETFs $TSLA and $NVDA both also moved higher last week with TSLA +$569mn to $8.5bn the highest since March while NVDA was +$486mn to $6.4bn the highest since Feb. 3rd place $MSTR though -$183mn to $3.1bn. $COIN moved back into the fourth spot just above $PLTR at $1.33b vs $1.21bn"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947627694968987915) 2025-07-22 12:00:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 2710 engagements
"BBG: China boosted shipments of rare earth magnets in June including to the US after a global supply squeeze that threatened factory closures and inflamed trade tensions. Total cargoes of the magnets rose to 3188 tons last month according to Chinese data on Sunday more than double volumes of 1238 tons in May in the midst of Chinas curbs. Flows to the US alone rose to XXX tons up from just XX tons. Total shipments were still substantially lower than before Beijing launched export controls in early April"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947131224230604829) 2025-07-21 03:07:14 UTC 12.4K followers, 1503 engagements
"$CMG Chipotle shares down nearly -XX% adding to its -XX% slump YTD after cutting FY sales guidance for the second time this year to flat y/y. Despite a number of new offerings and promotions comp sales were -X% worse than expected and the second consecutive quarter of falling comps"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948122743775392187) 2025-07-23 20:47:11 UTC 12.4K followers, 1914 engagements
"JPM: Q2 consensus forecasts have been cut substantially (top chart) for the S&P XXX with the implied yoy growth rate at +3.5% y/y down from +11% y/y at the start of the year. The unassuming hurdle rate suggests beats at headline level for Q2 but this is in the backdrop of strong recent equity rally so there could be disappointments if earnings do not deliver or if the guidances are mixed which we have seen. Further out earnings are expected to climb more steeply in 2H delivering XX% growth rate in Q4 vs Q2 middle chart. That is quite optimistic as the historical median growth rate over those"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947982528272347376) 2025-07-23 11:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 2174 engagements
"BoA: We estimate that FX was a 60-70bp tailwind in 2Q vs. a 1.1ppt headwind in 1Q. By sector Tech is estimated to have seen the biggest tailwind (130bp) followed by Materials (90bp). In general we estimate every XX% drop in the USD translates to a X% boost to EPS all else equal"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947655186807169417) 2025-07-22 13:49:16 UTC 12.4K followers, 3062 engagements
"SocGen: The $DXY index has decoupled markedly from Treasury yields since Liberation Day. Generally there is a positive correlation between US bond yields and the US dollar: when bond yields increase the dollar tends to strengthen as higher yields draw foreign investors seeking appealing opportunities in US Treasuries. However since trade tariffs have been imposed on all trading partners US bond yields have risen while the dollar has weakened. $USD"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1943241283730051145) 2025-07-10 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2495 engagements
"Goldman says they see a highly unusual discrepancy between the "the front month VIX future which is extremely elevated vs implied volatilityThe roll down is huge. We think a lot of this is due to the massive growth in the VIX ETN complex as retail investors pile in to these products - this essentially leads to the VIX market acting a bit more short gamma: selling more vol on days when vol is down and buying more vol on days vol is up to stay rebalanced. The conclusion here is that with VIX future at such an elevated level and roll down so steep as UX1 comes in more equity buying ensues"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947298090320265580) 2025-07-21 14:10:18 UTC 12.4K followers, 2943 engagements
"BBG: car repossessions in 2024 hit 1.73mn the most since 2009 up XX% y/y according to Cox Automotive"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1904959032877609013) 2025-03-26 18:10:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1187 engagements
""Wearable camera maker GoPro soared XX% in early trading doughnut maker Krispy Kreme was up XX% and Beyond Meat jumped 16%. The other two recent day-trader favorites were mixed with Opendoor Technologies Inc. dropping as much as XX% and Kohls Corp. advancing 1.8%." "Call volume on Krispy Kreme exploded on Tuesday with a record of over 100000 contracts trading equivalent to XX times the average daily volume over the past four years according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile GoPro had the highest call volume since 2021 with over 56000 contracts.""
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947990490567135635) 2025-07-23 12:01:39 UTC 12.4K followers, 1668 engagements
"Goldman: Prime book positioning in semi's "is at the highs (consistent with market sentiment around the group).""
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947687833197547650) 2025-07-22 15:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2326 engagements
"We'll get a lighter start to what will be the second heaviest week of earnings reports next week with X SPX components of which just one is $100bn in market cap (VZ)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947074038687301901) 2025-07-20 23:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2149 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $LEVI $COIN $MSTR $BP $AMC $EWC $CCJ $TD $PFCG $AVAV $KTOS $NSANY $BA $TOL"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1943654442177294737) 2025-07-11 12:51:45 UTC 12.4K followers, 1768 engagements
"$CMG: Chipotle down nearly -XX% on pace for its worst day since Oct. XX 2017 when it fell 14.6%. If it closes at current levels it will be the lowest close since Jan 2024. Year to date its seen a decline of almost 25%"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948467722246881368) 2025-07-24 19:38:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"$PEP PepsiCo shares up XXX% following its earnings this morning its best one day gain since March 2020"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945932013686358488) 2025-07-17 19:42:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1755 engagements
"MarketWatch: 0DTE options continue to grow now accounting for more than XX% of total daily activity for S&P XXX options according to the CBOE. While institutions certainly trade 0DTE retail traders are responsible for a growing share of overall volume according to Mandy Xu head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe. Xu said in a report published back in May estimating them at between XX% and XX% of S&P XXX 0DTE trading. Theyre selling options in a capped-risk way to generate some income Henry Schwartz vice president of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe told MarketWatch during an"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947959877583990983) 2025-07-23 10:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1008 engagements
"NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) which had been relatively strong the last couple of weeks but weaker since Friday improved Thurs to 69.7%. A very good result for the +0.51% gain in the index. Compare that to Wed when it was XXXX% on a slightly larger gain of +0.55% (circle)"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945947625712210262) 2025-07-17 20:44:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 2870 engagements
"Goldman: One reason why President Trump might raise tariffs further is that the costs of the trade war have been smaller than anticipated so far. At least as far as inflation is concerned however we think this mostly reflects lags related to large-scale inventory building before the tariffs hit. For the earliest Trump tariffs these lags have now run their course. Our estimates for June imply that XX% of the tariffs implemented in February have passed through raising the core PCE price index by a cumulative 0.2%. With an estimated XXX% price level increase yet to come we expect the"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947702932855787929) 2025-07-22 16:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1584 engagements
"DB notes the basket of stocks with high net call volumes are highly volatile and have poor profitability. Meanwhile crypto funds ($3.4bn) continued their strong run with their largest weekly inflows in X months. However other measures of exuberance remain subdued with for example continued outflows from US equities overall as well from leveraged and single-stock ETFs"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947320663813017906) 2025-07-21 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1715 engagements
"$BLK In a sign of what might be high expectations for 2025 winners this earnings season JPM is modestly lower despite a strong report and Blackrock is down over -X% despite pulling in another $68bn in AUM taking it to a record $12.5tn and smashing earnings expectations with a $XX% y/y gain to $12.05/share vs street estimates for $10.87"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945128723185066421) 2025-07-15 14:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1370 engagements
"Earnings will continue to build Tuesday with XX SPX reporters of which nine are $100bn in market cap (KO PM RTX TXN ISRG COF DHR CB LMT (highest to lowest market caps))"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947448666299765226) 2025-07-22 00:08:38 UTC 12.4K followers, 2391 engagements
"$IBM the 3rd largest reporter today down -X% as software sales missed expectations even as they increased XX% y/y. Consulting which had been in a slump also inflected to a positive 3%. Infrastructure sales were +14% above expectations driven by the strongest initial launch of a mainframe product in IBMs history Chief Financial Officer Jim Kavanaugh said in an interview. Also note the stock coming in was up XX% for the year so in part a victim to perhaps too high expectations. IBM maintained its annual sales forecast of at least X% growth in constant currency. Free cash flow is projected to"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948121764103426119) 2025-07-23 20:43:17 UTC 12.4K followers, 2217 engagements
"It wasn't just Opendoor though. Penny stock volumes (which I treat as sub $X so ex-Opendoor) accounted for X of the remaining XX stocks by volume and the total volume in those stocks came in at a huge 2.6bn or XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume up from XXXX% Friday. And if you add Opendoor which traded XXXX billion shares on its own they accounted for XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947399250435776792) 2025-07-21 20:52:16 UTC 12.4K followers, 7031 engagements
"In terms of how markets are handling earnings beats & misses for 1Q it seems investors are so far taking a glass half-full approach (different than what Goldman has seen although Factset looks at X days before to X days after an earnings release) saying beats have seen a +2.5% reaction the best in over X years (vs +1.9% in Q1 and versus the average of +1.0% the last X yrs) while misses are being punished around average (-2.3% vs 5-yr avg of -XXX% but more than Q1s -XXX% (although in Q1 the vast majority of reports came in the context of the 20+% recovery in stocks from the April lows))"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946912977682128904) 2025-07-20 12:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3515 engagements
"BoA notes on gamma positioning that as of Thursdays close SPX gamma was +$2.6bn (47th 1y %ile) a relatively modest figure. However a large portion of Thursdays gamma footprint is due to Julys 3rd Friday expiry (i.e. 18-Jul) which is now past. So BoA sees gamma as remaining relatively low but still positive which should have some marginal dampening impact on volatility but as of Thursday at least it saw a big wall that is perhaps what has kept SPX rallies from extending. It remains little changed on declines until around the 6150 but then builds. Again though this is all likely to change as"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947265047677616517) 2025-07-21 11:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 4008 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged up +0.2% as it trades not far from the highest levels since Sep XX. Major regional indices traded mixed. Japan's Nikkei -XXX% Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.6% China's Shanghai Composite +0.5% India's Sensex -XXX% South Korea's Kospi +1.6% and Australia's All Ordinaries -0.6%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Shanghai Securities News speculated that the Chinese government will strengthen its stimulus efforts during the second half of the year. Separately Beijings messaging has noticeably shifted in recent weeks with President Xi and other"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1943298581315653959) 2025-07-10 13:17:41 UTC 12.4K followers, 1372 engagements
"Despite the stronger than expected June retail sales and July Philly Fed manufacturing index and low weekly jobless claims Goldman cuts Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) as core retail sales growth for both April and May was revised down. Their Q2 domestic final sales estimate remained at +0.9%. They also lowered their June core PCE estimate to XXXX% (from 0.26%) on the soft import prices data corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.73%. "Headline import prices rose XXX% in June below expectations. Import prices ex-petroleum were flat also below"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945864615184707631) 2025-07-17 15:14:11 UTC 12.4K followers, 3239 engagements
"DB: Our measure of equity positioning rose again this week to turn overweight for the first time since late February (0.05sd 44th percentile). As we have laid out over the last few weeks even with equities at record highs positioning is not yet elevated. In the absence of a clear negative catalyst there is room for positioning to continue trending higher"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946938143510585770) 2025-07-20 14:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1501 engagements
"It may be a summer Friday but well still get some earnings of note with another X SPX reports (two $100bn in market cap (AXP SCHW (in order of market cap))"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945991908188475697) 2025-07-17 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1984 engagements
"Wall Street's biggest bull remains Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey who bless him hasn't changed his SPX YE price target this year sticking with the 7007 he set in December. What were seeing is the winners continue to win Harvey said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance. The uber-cap companies have the higher margins are gaining more market share. There is a real secular trend in AI that will continue. The S&P is not the same as it was XX years ago he said. It is much stronger the fundamentals are much better today than they were back then. In particular the indexs leaders are more"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947612592635318760) 2025-07-22 11:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1437 engagements
"MS says we can expect more volatility today with a bias for a down day. "when a large share of market cap reports in a day SPX absolute returns tend to be larger and slightly more negative than average.""
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947974981398499542) 2025-07-23 11:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"The 2yr yield more sensitive to #FOMC policy -4bps to XXXX% ending the week -2bps lower. It is -46bps below the Fed Funds midpoint so still calling for rate cuts but also up +15bps this month"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946656286239601005) 2025-07-19 19:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1200 engagements
"In contrast to a longer term reaction to earnings reports (two days prior to two days after) which Factset says have been better than 5-yr avgs BBG says looking just the next XX hours shows earnings misses seeing the worst performance since 3Q '22 at -5.1%"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946953243357040667) 2025-07-20 15:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2107 engagements
"MarketWatch: Blackrock remains bullish on bonds noting income in the bond market hasnt looked this good in XX years. Higher-for-longer policy rates have made this the best backdrop for earning income in bonds in two decades without taking more interest-rate or credit risk the asset-management giant said in a note Monday. Some XX% of global fixed-income assets now offer yields above X% as interest rates have settled above prepandemic levels. In the chart BlackRock showed the market share of fixed-income assets with a yield of X% or more. We like short-term government bonds BlackRock added"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947738416679948728) 2025-07-22 19:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1083 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $KVUE $NCNO $RIVN $SEDG $RIOT $CLSK $MARA $SNPS $ANSS $AFRM $FAST $ADSK $TSLA $UNCRY $BA $MSTR $HOOD $GOOG $META $AMZN $CRWD $PTC $WAT $BDX"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1944740075100606662) 2025-07-14 12:45:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 2421 engagements
"DB: Volatility has continued to creep lower with sensitivity to inflation releases near the lowest in X years. Implied vols have fallen sharply not just in equities but across most asset classes with FX a notable exception. The decline in implied vols largely reflects falling realized volatilities and in fact are arguably too high relative to them. While inflation continues to remain in focus in the context of tariff impacts the volatility priced into the S&P XXX vol curve ahead of CPI days has been falling sharply and for last weeks CPI release was near the lowest in X years"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947743450142507230) 2025-07-22 19:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1140 engagements
"NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) which improved considerably Tuesday to XXXX% the best in nearly a month and 2nd best in nearly two months edged back to XXXX% despite a stronger index performance at XXXX% vs +0.70% Tues so a bit of a negative divergence there"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948129746241425480) 2025-07-23 21:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3859 engagements
"US equity indices started the day little changed but dipped into the red in the first hour led by a -X% drop in the Nasdaq after reports the $500bn "Stargate" project was being scaled back (SOX -1.3%). All but the Nasdaq made it back into the green led by the RUT's +0.8%"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947758616217325580) 2025-07-22 20:40:16 UTC 12.4K followers, 1378 engagements
"Japan's Jul flash PMI remains unchanged at XXXX as an improvement in services (53.5 from 51.7) offset an unexpected drop in manufacturing back into contraction (48.8 from XXXX in June (50.2 exp'd)). "Latest Flash PMI data signalled a further modest increase in overall private sector business activity across Japan during July. However this masked divergent underlying trends with stronger growth across the service industry contrasting with a fresh fall in factory output. At the same time overall employment and new business rose only marginally across the private sector as a whole. Business"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948188816939852248) 2025-07-24 01:09:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 2430 engagements
"With the reports from Nvidia's biggest customers Microsoft Alphabet Amazon & Meta showing a combined $59bn into data center gear and other fixed assets in the third quarter a quarterly record according to BBG it bodes well for $NVDA's report Wed. If youre owning Nvidia the big buyers out there need to keep buying and every quarter they need to buy more said Mike Bailey director of research at Fulton Breakefield Broenniman. You can check that box"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1858540166706811173) 2024-11-18 15:58:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Two different defense stocks two very different performances since May 1st. $LMT Lockheed Martin hitting a new 52-week low on the back of the companys second-quarter revenue miss. Shares were down over -X% putting its decline since May 1st at almost -13%. By contrast shares of $NOC Northrop Grumman were trading at all-time highs dating back to the Northrop Aircraft and Grumman Aerospace merger in 1994. That stock has surged more than +16% since May 1st"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947740933555958123) 2025-07-22 19:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2745 engagements
"As noted at the start of the week its a light calendar for US economic data this week and Wed well just get existing home sales along with weekly mortgage applications and EIA petroleum inventories. The Fed will remain in their blackout. Well get a 20yr Treasury auction. Normally I would say nobody will pay any attention but after everyone got worked up about a 20yr auction a couple of months ago I guess you never know. Earnings though are expected to be the star of the show Wed with our heaviest day of the week w/36 SPX reporters of which eleven are $100bn in market cap including two of the"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947816416499142787) 2025-07-23 00:29:57 UTC 12.4K followers, 2753 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GPRO $DNUT $DOW $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $HON $AAL $AEO $TMUS $LVS $IBM $VKNG $MOH $DB $BX $LHX"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948367782325727728) 2025-07-24 13:00:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 2085 engagements
"US equity markets started the day modestly higher (as they have every session this week) but today they dropped right from the open into negative territory and didn't really recover. SPX & Nasdaq ended flat DJIA & RUT sported modest losses"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946301670721310817) 2025-07-18 20:10:53 UTC 12.4K followers, 2552 engagements
"With the cost of protection against a XX% SPX decline over the next month versus a XX% gain at the lowest level since January trading desks at firms including Goldman Sachs JPM BofA and Citadel Securities are telling clients to buy cheap hedges against potential losses. If you are nervous the market is making it very easy to rent hedges Goldmans trading desk wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Its time to buy volatility BofA Securities Inc.s John Tully wrote to clients on Monday noting that the VIX Index historically tends to hit the lowest level of the year in July. He recommends clients"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948401722616905846) 2025-07-24 15:15:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 1552 engagements
"MarketWatch: Barclays strategists led by Venu Krishna have their own metric for retail sentiment something called the equity euphoria index which measures the percentage of stocks in euphoric territory and is now surging toward the highest levels of the year. Its a proprietary measure culled from the options market and could be more reflective of market conditions given the way retail investors now use zero-day-to-expiration and other aggressive derivative products. Strategists at the bank said the dynamic of individual stocks both increasing in price and in volatility is a hallmark of upside"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948409086481244571) 2025-07-24 15:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1162 engagements
"From the always great @dailychartbook nightly email (more info at the link at the bottom) Ned Davis Research has a nice "composite" seasonality chart which consists of equal weight to the normal seasonal cycle 4-yr Presidential cycle and 10-yr decennial cycle which has a similar story of a peak right about now with a choppy period through October but with less of a drawdown and then a really nice 2-mth rally into YE"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947967425976434706) 2025-07-23 10:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 5122 engagements
"Goldmans Sentiment Indicator which combines nine measures of institutional foreign and retail investor positioning fell back three tenths to -XXX. The indicator has still not registered a positive reading since February"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947589940378013836) 2025-07-22 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2992 engagements
"Japan's sovereign bond yields (JGBs) continued to push higher led by the 40-yr jumping 17bps and the 20-yr hitting fresh 25-yr highs which BBG attributes to "thin liquidity and increasing worries about higher government spending in Japan. heightened by the looming election on July 20." But that latter concern is a global one. In Germany long-term borrowing costs were on course to hit their highest since 2011 amid concern over tariffs and extra government spending. In Japan focus has intensified on the nations upper house election with several local Japanese media polls pointing to the"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1944728774689305066) 2025-07-14 12:00:45 UTC 12.4K followers, 6047 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): Reason Powell is under Trump Pressure. Gov't spending is $7tn Trump can't cut $4tn mandatory spending and has backed off DOGE promises of $1tn in discretionary cuts (plus Iran/Ukraine means no change to $1tn in defense spending) leaves $1tn of interest rate cuts as sole vehicle to cut big gov't spend. XXXX% Fed funds would stabilize interest costs and Fed funds at X% (5-yr yield at 2.5%) would cut interest costs by $200bn"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946550590009401475) 2025-07-19 12:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 8668 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell back -XXX% as it continues its recent chop a little below the highest levels since Sep XX hit two weeks ago. Major regional indices were mostly lower. Japan's Nikkei -XXX% Hong Kong's Hang Seng -XXX% China's Shanghai UNCH India's Nifty +0.1% South Korea's Kospi -XXX% and Australia's All Ordinaries -0.8%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto on Wednesday confirmed he struck a XX% tariff deal with US President Donald Trump. The two nations agreed and concluded to take trade relations to a new era of"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945483517623709729) 2025-07-16 13:59:50 UTC 12.4K followers, 1665 engagements
"While the big cap strength and "other 493" weakness saw the best return on the worst breadth a week ago as Duality notes today we "flipped the script""
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947835020464251249) 2025-07-23 01:43:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 2731 engagements
"This morning's meme stock de jure is apparently Kohl's $KSS. MarketWatch: Kohl's Corp. stock was up more than XX% shortly after the opening bell on Monday. Shares had risen by roughly XXX% at one point during the premarket session. Just five minutes after the opening bell Kohl's was halted for volatility by Nasdaq. Kohl's stock has a high short-interest ratio relative to its float. It recently stood at XX% according to FactSet data"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947661660677935205) 2025-07-22 14:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1328 engagements
"$AXP American Express shares up around X% adding to a X% YTD gain following better than expected card transaction volumes with revenues up XXX% y/y. They maintained prior FY sales and earnings guidance. We saw record card member spending in the quarter demand for our premium products was strong and our credit performance remained best in class Chief Executive Officer Steve Squeri said in a statement Friday"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946183672098701727) 2025-07-18 12:22:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1718 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was mildly lower -XXX% Monday as it continues to pull back modestly from the highest levels since Sep XX hit two weeks ago. Major regional indices traded mixed. Japan's Nikkei -XXX% Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.3% China's Shanghai Composite +0.3% India's Sensex -XXX% South Korea's Kospi +0.8% and Australia's All Ordinaries -0.1%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Despite US tariffs China exports rose XXX% y/y in June to a record high for the first half of a year even as US bound shipments fell -XXXX% as exports to other Southeast Asian countries"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1944744623479394495) 2025-07-14 13:03:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 1710 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $BAC $MS $GS $ASML $JNJ $BMNR $SBIT $BTBT $MSTR $MARA $DEO $CVLT $RNLSY $NVDA $BHF $APO $KKR $ARES $BX"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945459785660350874) 2025-07-16 12:25:32 UTC 12.4K followers, 2598 engagements
"CNBC: ETFs focused on China have run circles around the broad U.S. market this week. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF ( $KWEB) has surged more than X% this week while the iShares MSCI China ETF ( $MCHI) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF ( $FXI) have climbed around X% the latter on track for its biggest weekly gain since February. By comparison the S&P XXX has risen about XXX% over the same period"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946248600788279690) 2025-07-18 16:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1301 engagements
"Pres Trump seems to confirm that countries hoping for the XX% tariff arrangement the UK has will be disappointed and they'll be lucky to get the Japan deal (15% on all products). Well have a straight simple tariff of anywhere between XX% and XX% Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. A couple of we have XX because we havent been getting along with those countries too well. He said talks with the European Union were serious. If they agree to open up the union to American businesses then we will let them pay a lower tariff Trump said"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948193922200567968) 2025-07-24 01:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1921 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are indicated modestly higher (as they also were every session last week) following a welcomed less newsy period since Fridays close. Later this morning well get leading/coincident indicators. Elsewhere bond yields are falling back as is the dollar. Crude and nat gas are also lower while gold copper and bitcoin are higher. $SPX +0.1% $NDX +0.1% $RUT +0.5%"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947284929152156079) 2025-07-21 13:18:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1538 engagements
"BoA: Weve heard upbeat commentary on AI monetization potential but over the long-term the degree of AI monetization remains in question and companies in reinvestment cycles have historically underperformed. In our view AI capex is a bigger tailwind for the market than idiosyncratic AI monetization. Semis are the most obvious beneficiaries but capex growth is expected to slow going forward. AI and the physical buildout of data centers should also lead to more demand for electrification construction utilities commodities etc. ultimately creating more jobs"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948075639040516560) 2025-07-23 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1137 engagements
"UK home sellers dropped asking prices -XXX% m/m in July to 373709 ($502810) the most for any July on record (to 2005) with the steepest discounts offered at the more expensive end of the property market with prices in London falling -XXX% more than any other region. The top-tier saw the largest drop down -XXX% to an average of 687422"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947220011820724242) 2025-07-21 09:00:03 UTC 12.4K followers, 1574 engagements
"UK's flash PMI remained in expansion in July but edged back slightly to XXXX from XXXX in June and below the XXXX expected. The manufacturing output index improved to a still-stagnant score of XX suggesting an eight-month contraction in production ended but the overall PMI remained in contraction and the UKs larger services sector suffered a slowdown to reading of XXXX down from XXXX. Firms cut employment at the fastest pace in five months new orders declined after picking up in June export sales fell for a ninth straight month and input price inflation rose. Chris Williamson Chief Business"
 [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948362820086616383) 2025-07-24 12:41:09 UTC 12.4K followers, 1604 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@neilksethi
"Ex-US its overall a light week although we do get the ECBs policy decision on Thursday where a hold is widely expected but what they might hint at about timing of another rate cut is less clear. There are also a few other central bank decisions (Turkey Hungary Nigeria Russia among others). In economic data well get flash PMIs Canada retail sales ECB lending bank lending survey EU consumer confidence Germanys Ifo business sentiment UK public finance data South Korea and Taiwan trade data and GDP and inflation prints from a number of Lat Ams largest economies among other reports. Well also get"
@neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 01:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1964 engagements
"Similar to Goldman BoA has seen big buying of industrials: Rolling 2-week inflows into Industrials were the 2nd largest in our data history (largest since Mar. 2015) and in the 97th percentile when normalized by Industrials market cap" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 12:28:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2625 engagements
"Jeffries: That the big beautiful bill has now been passed by Congress.without a revolt in the Treasury bond market has been a positive US equities have been celebrating and again with good reason. Still the passage of the bill like last quarters Moody's downgrade will probably mark a chapter in the history books on fiscal deterioration and the resulting decline of the US dollar paper standard. But for now the weaker US dollar and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) area positive for equities in the continuing absence of a Treasury bond revolt" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 18:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Earnings will remain heavy but ease off a touch Thurs with XX SPX reporters of which four are $100bn in market cap (BX HON UNP INTC (highest to lowest market caps))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1714 engagements
"2Q earnings season will roll on Wed with another XX SPX reports (seven $100bn in market cap (JNJ BAC ASML MS GS PGR PLD (in order of market cap)). Not sure why BoA didnt have ASML on their list" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-15 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3456 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/22/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 22:16:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 4056 engagements
"The Week Ahead - 7/13/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-14 02:09:54 UTC 12.3K followers, 8873 engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $INTC $DECK $BYD $VRSN $NEM $SAM $EW $MHK $FIX $COUR" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 22:12:48 UTC 12.4K followers, 2227 engagements
"Given the current environment a nice Fed primer from JPM's Feroli: Fed interest rate policy is set by the #FOMC which is made up of twelve people: the seven members of the Feds Board of Governors based in WashingtonDC the president of the NY Fed and an annually rotating group of four of the XX remaining regional reserve bank presidents. The seven members of the Board of Governors are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. A full term is XX years with one term beginning every two years on even-numbered years. A member who fills an unexpired portion of a term may be reappointed" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1214 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $NFLX $CVX $HES $SRPT $UNP $NSC $MMM $AXP $IBKR $SLB $SCHW $COIN $CRCL $HOOD $GLXY $BMNR $HBAN $WAL $GSK $RBGLY $META $ALV $RF" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 12:44:09 UTC 12.4K followers, 2162 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): 30yr bond yields eyeing "jailbreak" levels (UK XXX% US XXX% Japan 3.2%). no new highs in yields & MOVE index stays around XX = risk on new highs in bond yields & MOVE index XXX = risk off" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 11:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2091 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $SBUX $AES $UNH $SEDG $MBLY $WPP $BE $UNCRY $CRBZY $VRNA $JPM $AAPL $OMC $IPG $ENPH $FCX $PENG $RYTM" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-09 12:42:22 UTC 12.4K followers, 1926 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): Historic examples of central bank governor dismissals sparse but always driven by policy conflict over rates currencies or corruption. In every case dismissal coincided with sharp FX declines" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 8151 engagements
"BBG: The first half saw JP Morgan's market value surpass that of its three largest competitors BofA Citigroup and Wells Fargo combined. It racked up $XX billion of profit in that period more than double its closest rival and widened its lead over Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley in investment-banking revenue. $JPM" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-16 20:00:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 1124 engagements
"BBG: Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says that from a technical point of view he doesn't see "frothiness" when looking down-cap from the heavy-weights in the S&P XXX and Nasdaq indices. We believe that this bull market is broadening out in terms of participation he said. He points to the NYSE advance-decline line a popular indicator that tracks the number of securities rising minus the number falling on the exchange each day which is hitting fresh highs" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 19:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1234 engagements
"A BBG survey of economists has about half expecting one more ECB rate cut in September XX% in December while about a quarter think no cut is forthcoming" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 10:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1105 engagements
"I held off to see if any more details emerged from the WH but so far not seeing anything after President Trump on social media announced a trade agreement had been reached with Japan setting tariffs on Japanese imports at XX% along with $550bn in investment in the US. Trump said in his post on Truth Social that Japan would open their Country to US automobile imports as well as additional agricultural imports including rice without specifying further details. Also left unclear is whether Japanese automobiles and parts would receive a carve-out from separate XX% tariffs critical sticking point" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 02:24:04 UTC 12.4K followers, 2473 engagements
"Goldman's Flood says despite all of the concern over foreign demand for US equities the bank has cut its estimate just $4bn to $300bn in 2025 from the $304bn foreigners bought in 2024. Buybacks will remain the biggest source at $675bn while retail/hedge funds will add $425bn. They forecast though mutual and pension funds will be sellers (-$800bn combined)" @neilksethi on X 2025-03-26 10:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1079 engagements
"In Europe the benchmark #STOXX XXX is up X% as of XXXX ET encouraged by the potential for a EU/US trade deal following the Japan/US deal announced Tuesday moving towards the top of its range since early May. Major European indices are trading solidy higher Germany's DAX: +0.6% U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5% France's CAC 40: +1.0% Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.3% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Despite raised hopes for an EU trade deal the European Union has readied plans to quickly hit the US with XX% tariffs on some XXX billion ($117 billion) worth of goods in the" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:50:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 1744 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/23/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 22:29:15 UTC 12.4K followers, 4106 engagements
"Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also highest close since Oct '21. The index "jumped XXX% on Wednesday topping a previous year-to-date high hit on March XX. Kuaishou Technology Baidu Inc. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the top performers in the gauge. Hong Kongs benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 1.6%. boosted by easing Sino-American trade tensions and gains in heavyweight tech shares." "Investors are also looking to the countrys Politburo meeting later this month to set the tone for policy measures in the second half of the year. Markets have reacted positively to recent moves by" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:22:58 UTC 12.4K followers, 1908 engagements
"2Q earnings season will roll on with another XX SPX reports (five $100bn in market cap (NFLX GE ABT PEP MMC (in order of market cap))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-16 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1598 engagements
"Nasdaq positive volume a similar story going from an excellent XXXX% Tuesday considering the -XXXX% loss in the index to XXXX% today. And the weaker positive volume was despite even higher penny/meme stock volumes (I have added clear short squeezes to the list which today included DNUT (but excluding OPEN which I have treated separately thus far) in addition to the sub $X stocks) accounted for XX of the top XX stocks (not including OPEN) by volume (up from X Tuesday X Monday and X Friday) and the total volume in those stocks came in at 3.3bn up from 2.2bn Tues & 2.6bn on Monday or a huge" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 21:22:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 4615 engagements
"US equity indices started modestly higher and traded with an upward bias today again led by small caps with the RUT finishing up +1.5%. Nasdaq trailed up +0.6% ahead of GOOG TSLA IBM earnings after the close" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:07:15 UTC 12.4K followers, 1896 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $TSLA $GEO $CXW $MOH $SEDG $STZ $WNS $CGEMY $SHEL $MGM $AAPL $NSANY $NFLX $WOLF" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-07 13:28:04 UTC 12.4K followers, 1927 engagements
"The uncertainty surrounding Ishiba's future (and potential increased gov't spending) along with the finalizing of a US/Japan trade deal and BoJ Deputy Gov Uchida saying the deal means "likelihood has risen" for a rate hike all pressuring Japan's JGB sovereign bond market with a 40-yr bond auction today seeing its weakest demand since 2011. The bid-to-cover ratio a measure of demand came in at XXXXX compared to XXXXX at the previous auction. The bonds yielded XXXXX% the highest on record. Bond yields Wednesday rose across the curve" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:18:18 UTC 12.4K followers, 1344 engagements
"Earnings are expected to be the star of the show Wed with our heaviest day of the week w/36 SPX reporters of which eleven are $100bn in market cap including two of the Mag-7 in GOOG/GOOGL & TSLA (the others are IBM TMUS NBOW T GEV NEE TMO BSX & APH (highest to lowest market caps) and CME is right there at $99bn)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2470 engagements
"As always a nice collection of posts/articles from @TheChartReport. One is from the excellent @RyanDetrick who notes today is the seasonal peak for July gains (since 1950)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 11:55:03 UTC 12.3K followers, 13.9K engagements
"BoA's Hartnett: Bubble VIBBE's Bubble brewing in US equity leadership. Watch the VIBBE's (Valuation Inflation Bonds Breadth Exponential price moves). He says "Jailbreaks" are $SOX6k $MAGS $XX $BKX $XXX but "biggest tell would be stocks totally ignoring a rise in inflation expectations & bond yields to new highs". "ultimately proper bubble always ended by jump in bond yields & real yields (if proper bubble next XX months bond yields rise until AI/Big Tech customers squeal)"" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 11:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 9006 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $RUN $FSLR $ENPH $DDOG $JPM $GS $BAC $SHAK $VRT $KEY $COIN $CC $UNCRY $GLNCY $NVS $POAHY $LVMY $AAPL $META $AMZN $XOM $HON" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-08 12:47:14 UTC 12.4K followers, 1992 engagements
"MarketWatch: More U.S. homes sold last year were bought by people age XX and over than by people under age XX according to Jim Reid head of macroeconomic and thematic research at Deutsche Bank Research. "In fact XX% of homes were purchased by those aged XX and over" Reid wrote in a Monday client note. Messaging from the Trump administration has been "mixed" when it comes to which segments of the population it plans to prioritize Reid said noting that high rates and elevated home prices are stalling the typical "handoff" of property to younger generations" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 18:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"DB also has seen substantial buying from CTAs in US equities the past two weeks (although sees overall positioning as not stretched) and CTAs remain full of foreign equities: CTAs continued to increase their overall equity longs taking it to the highest in XX months (90th percentile) mostly driven by elevated positioning outside the US. Within the US they increased longs in the S&P XXX (57th percentile from 26th two weeks ago) and in the Nasdaq XXX (66th percentile from 30th) but remained modestly short the Russell 2000 (32nd percentile from 7th percentile two weeks ago)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 18:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1852 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index shot +2% higher to the best close since June 2021 following the Japan/US trade deal announced Tuesday. Major regional equity indices also ended mostly higher led by Japan's Nikkei (+3.5%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+1.6%) pushed to the highest close since Oct '21 as did the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. Japan's Nikkei: +3.5% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.6% China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH India's Sensex: +0.7% South Korea's Kospi: +0.4% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Trump on social media" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 13:05:05 UTC 12.4K followers, 2095 engagements
"Well get the unofficial kickoff to 2Q earnings season Tuesday with JP Morgan (JPM). Joining them in terms of SPX reporters will be BLK WFC C BK STT JBHT and OMC (in order of market cap the first three along with JPM are all $100bn)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-14 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2107 engagements
"MarketWatch: Data from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage shows that quantitative strategies are suffering their worst drawdown since the end of 2023. So-called systematic managers (that trade through Goldman) have accumulated a XXX% loss since the beginning of June to take their year-to-date performance down to a still positive XXX% on the year. The bank's analysts attribute the decline to a momentum sell-off a rally in high-beta and high-volatility companies and some unwinding of crowded trades. Bruno Schneller managing partner at Erlen Capital Management a Swiss asset manager says recent moves" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 16:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 9379 engagements
"MarketWatch: Morgan Stanley says "the pace of the rally is slowing" with "retail demand for US equities . falling from a pace of $3.5bn/day at the start of the month to $1.5bn/day now." In addition they expect "the systematic bid to halve to $2.5bn per day by the end of the month" while "a high share of companies" remain in their buyback blackout as "1H July seasonal equity strength typically weakens through from now through August." (see previous posts on this). While they see a short-term bull case if "HFs still need to buy into the rally" their focus is on the fact that "passive inflows" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 10:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1988 engagements
"Well the scenario that was concerning stock and bond investors in Japanese assets came to pass with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party along with longtime partner Komeito losing its majority in the chamber (as reported by public broadcaster NHK) after the bloc failed to win the XX seats it needed to maintain control. Overall the ruling coalition lost XX seats falling three seats short of a majority according to the NHK. The result is the second poor election showing for Ishiba since he became premier last October even though the coalitions tally of 47" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 02:20:00 UTC 12.3K followers, 4064 engagements
"Tier1Alpha who gives a more recent update (this morning) says those strikes are likely resetting in a relatively favorable fashion for equities: Dealers will start the week long gamma implying the conditions for lower volatility remain firmly in place. That said following last week's monthly options expiration overall gamma levels should be at their cyclical lows. Consequently a modest uptick in realized volatility is reasonable to expect though it will likely occur within the context of a broader low-volatility regime. In practice if we were to see a material rise in volatility from here it" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 12:21:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 4322 engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 21:59:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 3106 engagements
"Nasdaq positive volume also good and remaining more elevated than the NYSE at XXXX% but that was actually a touch below XXXX% Wed despite a larger index gain Thurs (+0.74% vs +0.25%). At least in part that was due to penny stock volumes (which I treat as sub $2) while remaining elevated falling to the lows of the week accounting for just X of the top XX stocks by volume (down from X Wed & Tuesday X Monday and XX Friday) while the total volume in those stocks came in at 1.46bn or XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume down from XXXX% Wed and XX% Monday (around the XX% Tuesday)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 20:52:05 UTC 12.4K followers, 8172 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $ALK $XYZ $PINS $DLTR $TGT $DPZ $CLF $VZ $SRPT $IVZ $QQQ $MSFT $RYAAY $DYNX $ROP" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 12:36:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 2240 engagements
"The NYSE McClellan Summation Index (red line "what the avg stock is doing") has rolled over after reaching the highest since Oct last week" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 21:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1277 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $PEP $SBUX $TSM $GE $USB $CARS $TOST $UAL $ADM $SRPT $MP $ABT $SHAK $RBLX $NVS" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 13:05:35 UTC 12.4K followers, 1774 engagements
"@myalphaport6688 Well buy the dip has been the place to be since the pandemic so retail has done well. Hedge funds have made money but not as much as retail. Institutions a little worse. Corporates have been steady buyers and have gotten better about buying more in declines" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:49:26 UTC 12.4K followers, XX engagements
"The VVIX (VIX of the VIX) like the VIX remained in the area its traded in the past XX sessions at XXXX still under Nomuras Charlie McElligotts stress level of XXX (consistent with moderate daily moves in the VIX over the next XX days (normal is 80-100))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2187 engagements
"MarketWatch: We already have TACO now Volkmar Baur a currency analyst for Commerzbank offers another food metaphor for the Trump tariff strategy: salami. Describing the market's calm reaction to tariff threats this time around he says it could be because the threats are being made gradually rather than all at once. "Three months ago that was enough to cause a sell-off on the market. But since the news is coming in slice by slice this time the market seems to be coping better than it did at the beginning of April" he said" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-11 17:40:00 UTC 12.3K followers, 5680 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are indicated modestly higher (as theyve been every session this week) on a less newsy overnight highlighted by Fed Gov Waller calling for a rate cut at the end of the month with the SPX on track for the 3rd weekly gain in the last X weeks aided by overall strong corporate earnings. Later this morning well get preliminary July UMich consumer sentiment. Elsewhere bond yields are edging lower and the dollar is falling back from 3-week highs. Perhaps aided by that commodities are broadly higher with crude gold copper and nat gas all up. Bitcoin is" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 13:13:03 UTC 12.4K followers, 14.7K engagements
"BoA: Last week saw the largest selling of $EUR/USD this year with "the lack of Real Money $USD supply raising risks of a summer USD rally." $DXY" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 15:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1050 engagements
"Goldman (Hatzius): We have made several changes to our trade policy assumptions on the back of President Trumps latest threats. While we don't expect the letter tariffs scheduled for August X to take effect we now build in an increase in the "reciprocal" tariff rate from XX% to 15%. By contrast we think the XX% pharma tariff will be delayed until after the 2026 midterm election. This still implies an increase in the average effective tariff rate of about 14pp in 2025 but we now expect another 3pp increase to nearly XX% in 2026. The risks to these assumptions are two-sided but generally tilted" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 10:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3311 engagements
"#FOMC rate cut pricing from CME's Fedwatch tool little changed following CPI with 2025 edging down -1bps to 47bps with July cut at X% Sept at 62%. Two cuts 68%. 2026 remains at 71bps of cuts priced" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-15 13:06:35 UTC 12.4K followers, 2813 engagements
"JPM: Market liquidity conditions have seen notable improvement for US Equities. They also note that "low realized macro volatility has helped to induce low market volatility in conjunction with other factors such as retail investors and corporate buybacks continuing to act as a backstop to drawdowns in Equities as well as economic and financial leverage overall remaining relatively contained and thus far not served to amplify these shocks."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 15:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Goldman (Hatzius): We estimate that a XX% US tariff on imports from Europe would shave XXX% off Euro area GDP by the end of 2026 (relative to the impact of our baseline assumption of 15%). this means that the risks to our Euro area growth and interest rate forecasts are tilted to the downside. Outside of tariffs however we are cautiously optimistic on Euro area growth with a cyclical pickup in Germany on the back of the fiscal expansion and continued strength in Spain. The flip side is that the ECB easing cycle is probably ending although we still expect one last cut to XXXX% in September" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1266 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): bears position for breakdown via defensive healthcare staples utilities (now just XX% of S&P XXX index lowest since 2000)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 11:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 12.9K engagements
"In Europe the benchmark #STOXX XXX is edging lower -XXX% as of 8.40am ET remaining in the middle of its range since early May. Major European indices are also trading lower. STOXX Europe 600: -XXX% Germany's DAX: -XXX% U.K.'s FTSE 100: -XXX% France's CAC 40: -XXX% Italy's FTSE MIB: -XXX% Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Stocks moved lower after the Financial Times reported Friday that President Donald Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of XX% to XX% in talks with the European Union. The report also said that Trump would be content to keep auto sector" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 12:48:35 UTC 12.4K followers, 1612 engagements
"Enjoy the weekend. After a busy week well get a lighter one next week before we get one of those weeks to end the month (a packed schedule of economic and earnings reports and central bank policy decisions along with the Aug 1st scheduled implementation date for Pres Trumps new tariffs). For next week though its lighter on the economic calendar with the headliners flash PMIs new and existing home sales durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. The Fed will be in their blackout period (it appears Chair Powell will be making opening remarks at a banking conference but given hes a stickler" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 13:00:20 UTC 12.4K followers, 1713 engagements
"$ITB On the back of a +16% gain in the largest homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. $DHI as well as a +12% gain in PulteGroup Inc. $PHM after earnings the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF $ITB is up nearly +8% it's best day since Nov '22 to a 5-mth high. "Many of the biggest builders in the country continue to surprise Wall Street to the upside with how well they are running their businesses in this environment John Burns CEO of John Burns Research and Consulting told MarketWatch. In other words the results werent as bad as investors were expecting namely gross margins and the expectations around" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 19:52:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1095 engagements
"MarketWatch: Alex Manzara at R.J. O'Brien makes the point that even if the Trump administration is successful in getting a more pliant Fed there's still another issue in its quest to lower mortgage rates. The spread between the 10-year note and 30-year mortgage rates has increased from about XXX basis points between 2017 and 2019 to XXX basis points now. That's as the White House is contemplating freeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government control -- a move that could potentially send the spread still higher. "If Fannie and Freddie are privatized it's likely the market will demand" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 18:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1219 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GM $LMT $KO $NXPI $STLD $MEDP $CSX $NSC $DHI $PHM $NOC $ZION $ACI $AGYS $CALX $AZN $SNY $QS $SRPT $PMI $SHW" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 12:46:55 UTC 12.4K followers, 2909 engagements
"Factset: 2025 revenues are now expected to grow +5.1% down -XXX% since Dec 31st and down from XXX% at the start of the quarter (April 1st). Energy is the only sector expected to have negative revenue growth (although thats been cut by two-thirds since the start of the quarter)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 10:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1304 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DAL $EWZ $KLG $AMD $TREX $BYRN $PTC $HELE $BX $WPP $MP $UAL $AAL $ALK $LUV $ROKU $RARE $MREO $AMD $CAG" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-10 12:55:15 UTC 12.4K followers, 2456 engagements
"For now shares have moved back to around unchanged levels. Here's CNBC's link for their updates as they compile the numbers. Cloud revenues and traffic acquisition costs also above expectations. $GOOG" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:15:15 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"MarketWatch: Hedge funds successfully negotiated a volatile second quarter and expanded total funds managed to $XXXX trillion their highest figure yet. The latest HFR Global Hedge Fund Industry Report released Friday registered the seventh consecutive quarterly increment with investors committing $XXX billion of fresh capital to the asset class. In all the first half of 2025 saw the strongest inflows into hedge funds for a decade. Both asset and performance gains were widespread across every strategy sub-strategy and cross-section of exposure as managers demonstrated tactical flexibility"" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1157 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/21/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 22:07:16 UTC 12.4K followers, 4438 engagements
"Earnings will continue to build Tuesday with XX SPX reporters of which nine are $100bn in market cap (KO PM RTX TXN ISRG COF DHR CB LMT (highest to lowest market caps))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 23:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1516 engagements
"Along the same lines CNBC reports that The Invesco S&P XXX High Beta ETF ( $SPHB) on Monday hit a new intraday all-time high going back to its inception in 2011. Stocks leading the ETF include Albemarle Super Micro ON Semi Teradyne CrowdStrike Deckers Freeport McMoRan. All are up more than 2%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 16:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2240 engagements
"Factset: Sell ratings on the Financials sector ticked up to X% to join Utilities and Staples with the most. The overall SPX has just X% sell ratings. Interestingly Staples has by far the most hold ratings (53%). Next closest is Utilities (45%). Energy continues to have the most buy ratings (67%) but Tech has moved into number two (65%)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 17:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1084 engagements
"Looking at CTA (trend follower) positioning in the US indices BOA says: According to our model trend followers added to equity longs this week especially in the US as the S&P XXX and NASDAQ-100 reached new all-time highs. In fact long positioning in NASDAQ-100 futures looks to be in consensus across short- medium- and long-term trend followers which increases the potential impact should CTAs unwind in a reversal. Our closest NASDAQ unwind trigger is still more X% lower from Fridays close with selling accelerating at X% lower from the index high. So BoA sees CTAs as continuing to add to equity" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 11:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1965 engagements
"BBG story on the widening gap b/w 2025 & 2026 rate cut bets since April now around 76bps from 25bps. Whoever comes in next that person is going to have a bias towards lowering rates said Ed Al-Hussainy global rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle. In addition the economy is less likely to be resilient next year opening the door for more policy easing he said" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 17:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1541 engagements
"As noted at the start of the week its a light calendar for US economic data this week but Thursday is the one busy day with flash PMIs new home sales Chicago National Activity Indes and weekly jobless claims. The Fed will remain in their blackout. Well get a 10yr TIPS reopening (so far we havent had a TIPS auction get media coverage and nobody paid any attention to todays 20yr auction so Id imagine you can ignore this one). Earnings will remain heavy with XX SPX reporters of which four are $100bn in market cap (BX HON UNP INTC (highest to lowest market caps)). EX US DM also our busiest day" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 00:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2794 engagements
"MarketWatch: Mark Newton head of technical strategy at Fundstrat says the VIX looks to be close to bottoming and likely could trend higher in August. "Overall I feel that VIX likely can rise to the mid-20s and possibly mid-30s by October meaning that implied volatility at current levels is currently cheap in my view" says Newton in a note published late Tuesday. Consequently any decline in the VIX in coming weeks may represent an opportunity to buy cheap volatility on a 2-3 month timeframe he adds. "Bottom line any move down to 14-15.50 would signal an appealing risk/reward opportunity for" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 15:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2240 engagements
"Goldman Liquidity off the bottom "but still well below the YTD average of $9.31mm and the 1yr average of $12.59mm." "liquidity is in the gutter.Hard to play QB offense until you know you have your O-line" (that's a football (American) analogy)" @neilksethi on X 2025-03-21 12:34:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"BBG: The S&P XXX hasn't posted a X% up or down day since late June (17 sessions) the longest streak since December's 20-session streak. An old saying on Wall Street is Never short a dull market said Dave Lutz equity sales trader and macro strategist at Jonestrading. History shows quiet markets tend to drift upward" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 12:29:13 UTC 12.4K followers, 9293 engagements
"Despite the surge in global bond yields a net X% expect of GFMS respondents see global CPI to be higher in XX months time down 7ppt MoM. "FMS inflation expectations have dropped 50ppt since April the biggest 3-month decline since Jun22."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-16 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1859 engagements
"Earnings lighten up considerably Friday with just X SPX reporters of which none are $100bn in market cap (largest is HCA at $87bn)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 23:39:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1490 engagements
"June retail sales come in much stronger than expected +0.64% m/m (after -XXXX% in May which was the most since Mar 23) on a broad advance led by a rebound in auto sales to +1.2% from a -XXX% drop in May. Gasoline stations came in flat the first non-negative number since Jan. Stripping those out though still saw core sales very healthy at +0.55% above expectations for +0.3% and up from -XXXXX% in May led by increases in building material/garden +0.9% apparel +0.9% grocery +0.5% health care +0.5% gen merch +0.5% misc +1.8% and bars/restaurants the only services category which rebounded to +0.6%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 13:00:15 UTC 12.3K followers, 3552 engagements
"This was interesting. Under a provision of the tax code intended to encourage entrepreneurship by letting Americans create new companies with existing assets an investor can take their portfolio and form an ETF. Once the ETF is launched they can use flows in and out to rebalance away from oversized positions without incurring a taxable gain. You say Gee Nvidias gotten a little bit too rich for my blood Id like to get rid of it says Elwood. The problem you would have is the only way to do it in a separately managed account would be to sell it recognize some taxable gain. Instead you "transfer" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 14:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2093 engagements
"MarketWatch: The vigorous embrace of high-beta names has many analysts worried. One is Dubravko Lakos-Bujas strategist at JPMorgan. In a note published Monday he and his team observe that there have been three episodes already this year where investing style factors have seen extreme crowding episodes. In January investors piled into quality growth large-size companies reflecting a desire to own the AI-linked mega caps. Then as concerns about AI overspend infected sentiment and tariff policy raised recession fears April saw a rush into stocks deemed low volatility safer. The latest bout of" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 14:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 5125 engagements
"Despite Gov Waller's best efforts with another interview on BBG (link below) that hints at a potential dissent for a July rate cut #FOMC rate cut pricing from CME's Fedwatch tool has seen just a small adjustment off the lowest since February. A July cut remains very unlikely at X% and even Sept is at just XX% rebounding a bit from XX% a day ago. Less than X cuts are priced (46bps up from 43bps) this year with another almost X in 2026 (72bps). That's down from 92bps of 2025 cuts expected and 135bps of cuts through 2026 on May 1st" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 16:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3320 engagements
"The Lloyds Business Barometer sentiment index rose XX points to XX in May the highest since August. The rebound in business confidence suggests that firms might be in a stronger position for the next quarter said Hann-Ju Ho senior economist at Lloyds Commercial Banking. The rise in confidence is driven by a sharp increase in economic optimism reflecting the recovery in financial markets amid the easing of global trade tensions. The survey also showed that businesses are more upbeat about their own prospects and the economic outlook. The gauge of expected staffing levels rose suggesting more" @neilksethi on X 2025-05-30 02:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1729 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged higher +0.2% as it continues its recent chop a little below the highest levels since Sep XX hit two weeks ago. Major regional indices were mostly higher. Asian markets ended mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei +0.6% Hong Kong's Hang Seng -XXX% China's Shanghai Composite +0.4% India's Nifty -XXX% South Korea's Kospi +0.2% and Australia's All Ordinaries +0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Donald Trump said he would send letters to more than XXX countries notifying them their tariff rates could be XX% or XX% as he forges ahead" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 13:48:10 UTC 12.4K followers, 1443 engagements
"Goldman (Hatzius): Chinas GDP beat consensus expectations in Q2 and our full-year 2025 forecast has edged up to 4.7%. The bigger picture is unchanged with strength in industrial production and exports but weakness in housing and retail sales (outside of the "cash for clunkers" program). The resulting imbalance between supply and demand has pushed Chinas current account surplus up to XXX% of GDP in Q1. Relative to Chinas GDP this is far smaller than the surpluses seen at the peak of the first China shock of the 2000s. But relative to GDP outside of China it is a new record. The growing" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 02:51:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1495 engagements
"With the banks a major focus of earnings reports this week Factset notes expectations are for XXX% y/y earnings growth for Financials led by Consumer Finance at XX% (led by Capital One $COF). Banks though are expected to fall -XX% as a drop in Diversified Banks (-13%) outweighs gains in Regional Banks (+18%) due mostly to $JPM. "If JPMorgan Chase were excluded the estimated earnings growth rate for the Financials sector would improve to XXX% from 2.4%." Insurance is expected at XX% with Property & Casualty Insurance (26%) and Insurance Brokers (14%) higher but Reinsurance (-13%) and Life &" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-13 16:21:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1164 engagements
"BBG: Firms such as Invesco Ltd. Fidelity International Ltd. and JPMorgan Asset Management are reinforcing bullish bets across technology shares from the US to Asia as well as on emerging-market assets. The high-octane wager is that while President Donald Trump is threatening to disrupt the economic order anew he will step back from the brink. People have really bought into this belief that there is a Trump put that if markets correct or if US interest rates go up Trump will back off as he did in April: that trade is on said Chang Hwan Sung a multi-asset portfolio manager in Invescos" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 13:25:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1079 engagements
"BoA on EPFR flows week through Wed: Foreign inflows to: -US Treasuries past X mths ($0.5bn) weakest since Feb '17; -US stocks $2bn down from $34bn in Jan US share of global equity flows XX% YTD vs XX% in '24" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 11:23:36 UTC 12.4K followers, 3222 engagements
"Goldman's Nelson Ambrust says the selling Tuesday "was a X on a 1-10 scale in terms of overall activity levels" with "35.979m total puts trading in the US yesterday - the highest non-Friday expiry day ever." "on a 2-week rolling basis (since Feb 18th when YTD Fundamental L/S returns peaked) global equities on the Prime book have seen thelargest 2-week notional net selling in the last XX years."" @neilksethi on X 2025-03-05 20:18:00 UTC 12.3K followers, 2183 engagements
"% of stocks over 200-DMAs (red line) not confirming the new highs in the Nasdaq" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 21:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1796 engagements
"June existing home sales fall back -XXX% m/m to a 9-mth low as they bump along at levels near the least since just after the GFC at 3.93mn at what I would imagine is the slowest pace for June since June 2009 (after the worst March April and May since then). Note as these are closings contracts were signed 1-3 mths earlier. Single-family sales were -X% m/m to 3.57mn +0.6% y/y while condo sales were unchanged m/m -XXX% y/y. Sales rose in the West but fell in the Northeast Midwest and South (the largest housing market). All though but the NE were up modestly from a year ago. "High mortgage rates" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 14:23:57 UTC 12.4K followers, 1638 engagements
"$GOOG $GOOGL Alphabet shares jump in a $XX band following the release of earnings which showed beats across the board but that also includes cap ex (higher than expected)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:10:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 2290 engagements
"Morningstar: Following several of their own launches in the space BlackRock predicted in March that outcome ETF assets will surge to $XXX billion by 2030. Outcome ETFs as defined by BlackRock include covered call ETFs buffer ETFs and some others. All use options to deliver a targeted outcome. Covered call ETFs fall into the derivative-income category. These ETFs typically sell call options against a long position in some underlying asset like the S&P XXX index to generate income. The largest ETF in the category and currently the largest active ETF JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF $JEPI" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1641 engagements
"Goldman estimates systematic macro global equity buyers added $30bn of net length last week ($67bn in the last X month) and will add another $42bn in the next X week ($107bn in the next one month in the baseline scenario) driven by CTA/trend followers. "Nearly $42bn or XX% of the global figure is expected to be in US markets."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 18:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1429 engagements
"BBG: Invesco sees medium-term opportunities in Korea due to optimism over the governments corporate-governance reforms. The nations benchmark Kospi index has already gained more than XX% this year making it one of the worlds best-performing major equity gauges" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 01:59:10 UTC 12.4K followers, 1400 engagements
"BoA: In FX the US Dollar declined again this week despite a pop higher in reaction to the strong US jobs report on Thursday. Our model suggests that CTAs still have $USD shorts vs $EUR $GBP $MXN and $CAD. In other currencies $JPY and $AUD longs are less stretched with JPY selling expected next week following this weeks USD strengthening vs JPY" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-07 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1079 engagements
"Goldman (Kostin) notes that the weak dollar "tailwind" disproportionately aided the Mag-7. Our economists expect continued USD weakness boosting relative outperformance of international-facing stocks although Kostin also expects US economic growth to outpace most other major economies in both 2025 and 2026 which should provide a relative tailwind to domestic-facing firms" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 13:52:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1554 engagements
"DB (Reid): One WOW chart - S&P XXX dividend yields are now within just XX basis points of their all-time low last reached during the tech bubble in 2000. So does a near-record low dividend yield matter Not while companies are flush with cash and happy to repurchase their own stock. But it does make the U.S. market more high beta. If a downturn hits buybacks will stop far more quickly than dividends potentially pulling away a key pillar of market support. And with dividend yields now approaching all-time lows theres a case to be made that valuations and investor expectations have become" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-11 10:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1270 engagements
"In line with the slowing credit card growth in the May consumer credit report BoA sees slowing in American Express borrowing from consumers and small businesses: "June ending loan balances of $122.7B were up XXX% y/y a marked deceleration from the XXXX% y/y in May. US Consumer growth was up XXX% y/y down slightly from XXX% y/y in May and US Small Business was up XXX% y/y down markedly from XXXX% y/y in the prior month." Write offs edged up but remained contained: "The net write-off rate was XXXX% for US Consumer and XXXX% for US Small Business which resulted in a combined loss rate of 2.23%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-15 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1058 engagements
"Interesting note from @Chartfest1's always good daily post on The Street: I saw a chart of the ETF (BUZZ) (VanEck Social Sentiment ETF) in BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinskys excellent missive Thursday. Wowee. That is some move since June and now it has begun to go parabolic. Naturally this took me to the ratio of the (QQQ)'s to BUZZ and heres another wow: Look at how poorly the QQQs have done relative to BUZZ since April. Think about this we consider the QQQs to be the pinnacle of technology stocks yet they practically look like the healthcare stocks relative to the S&P when" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 16:40:00 UTC 12.3K followers, 1591 engagements
"For the week a heavy slate of earnings with XXX SPX components representing XX% of the SPX (by earnings weight) reporting the 2nd heaviest week of the season with XX $100bn in market cap (GOOG/GOOGL TSLA KO PM IBM TMUS BX RTX NOW TXN T ISRG VZ TMO GEV BSX NEE HON COF DHR UNP APH CB LMT LMT CME (and INTC is right there at $99.5bn))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2896 engagements
"Former Goldman derivatives/macro head Scott Rubner now at Citadel says it's not yet time to fade the rally. "We're not there yet." But he says you might want to start adding protection come the end of August with Sep 2nd representing the peak in terms of positive SPX flows. But for the time being he says "the pain trade is higher" with companies facing a low bar for earnings beats systematic strategies still having room to add given the decline in realized volatility" CTA sell thresholds well below spot retail investors still buying dips ("you only live once" is their motto he says) with" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 10:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 10.4K engagements
"Goldman: The equity market appears to be unconcerned by the recent tariff hike announcements. The S&P XXX fell sharply immediately following tariff announcements earlier this year with a basket of stocks with broad tariff exposure (GS24TRFS) underperforming on those days. However US equities have largely ignored the most recent tariff announcements (Exhibit 2). The S&P XXX notched a new record high this week and the GS Tariff Risk basket is just X% off its high. Our client conversations indicate that many investors believe tariff rates will eventually settle lower than what the recent" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 10:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2159 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $JPM $WFC $C $BLK $CRWV $ERIC $BK $ACI $STT $NVDA $TTD $SEDG $ENPH $NFG $AMD $AAPL $MP $UBER $BIDU $GOOG $BAM $ANSS" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-15 13:11:24 UTC 12.4K followers, 2194 engagements
"June new home sales edge higher after falling in May by the second most since Sep XX to slowest pace since Oct but at +0.6% to 627k it was well under the +4.3% expected to 650k keeping them at the bottom of their range since Jan XX. Regionally sales in the South (representing over XX% of all new home sales) were up +5.1% after falling in May by the most since July 2013 to the least since November XX. Sales also grew in the MW (+6.3%) but fell sharply in the NE (-27.6% to the slowest pace since Feb 23) and less sharply in the West (-8.4% to the least since Nov) Total sales are -XXX% y/y Note:" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 14:21:33 UTC 12.4K followers, 4237 engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TMUS $LVS $IBM $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $VKNG $MOH $URI" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 22:11:45 UTC 12.4K followers, 3172 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/24/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 22:18:11 UTC 12.4K followers, 2393 engagements
"Yardeni: Analysts are turning more optimistic about the companies they follow. The percentage of S&P XXX companies with positive three-month percent changes in forward earnings has increased from XX% in early April to XX% currently (chart)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 15:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3089 engagements
"Thoughts from Goldman's Rich P on equity market Kevin Warsh comments & equity issuance: The equity market felt a bit heavy yday. think the positioning and sentiment comments from yday reflect a market that finally has some length in it. The discretionary crowd is back in and net leverage is basically back to where they were in Feb (ok L/S ratio isnt but the market is at the highs and people are longer we can debate the degree.) This by itself is not a reason to be bearish but just a reflection that the asymmetries may have shifted.Think were back to watching rates. To echo consensus the curve" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-08 12:28:19 UTC 12.4K followers, 1094 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are modestly higher following the announcement yesterday of a US/Japan trade agreement and as corporate earnings reports continue to pour in. Later this morning well get existing home sales along with weekly EIA petroleum inventories. After the close well get earnings from GOOG & TSLA among others (CMG IBM etc.). Elsewhere bond yields are edging higher and the dollar is as well. Copper is also extending higher while crude gold bitcoin and nat gas are all lower. $SPX +0.4% $NDX +0.1% $RUT +0.6%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 13:15:12 UTC 12.4K followers, 1238 engagements
"US equity indices started the day little changed at the large cap level but in the red for the DJIA & RUT and that's how they finished with a reverse performance from Wed (Nasdaq leading +0.2% RUT giving back yesterday's gains -1.4%)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 20:13:29 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Well get the unofficial kickoff to 2Q earnings season with JP Morgan on Tuesday. In total well get XX SPX reporters this week including XX $100bn in market cap (in order JPM NFLX JNJ BAC GE WFC ABT MS AXP GS PEP BLK SCHW C PGR MMC PLD). As a side note I didnt realize that C had fallen so far down the list of the biggest financials" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-13 23:41:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 4063 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $CCL $ULCC $UAL $AAL $DAL $JBLU $ALK $LUV $CHWY $KBH $LMT $RTX $OIH $XOM $V $MA $FFBC $THO $SNOW $UBER $LYFT $BBVA $NVO $FI $SBUX" @neilksethi on X 2025-06-24 12:51:29 UTC 12.4K followers, 2219 engagements
"Nasdaq positive volume was very good at XXXX% considering the -XXXX% loss in the index (it was XXXX% Mon on a +0.38% gain). And the stronger positive volume was despite a slight pull back in penny stock volumes (which I treat as sub $2) although they accounted for X of the top XX stocks by volume (up from X Monday and X Friday) but the total volume in those stocks came in at 2.2bn down from 2.6bn on Monday or XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume down from XXXX% Monday (but up from XXXX% Friday). Meme stock Opendoor also saw about XX% less trading on Tuesday at 1.06bn shares down from 1.86bn Monday" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 21:15:49 UTC 12.4K followers, 1864 engagements
"The Week Ahead - 7/20/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 01:40:28 UTC 12.4K followers, 9438 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up +0.3% Monday as it pushes to fresh nearly 4-yr highs. Major regional equity indices began the week on a mostly higher note as well while Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday. Japan's Nikkei: HOLIDAY Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.7% China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7% India's Sensex: +0.5% South Korea's Kospi: +0.7% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Japan is facing trade and political uncertainty after a historic defeat for the prime ministers ruling party. Shigeru Ishiba is trying to buy time for his" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 13:03:26 UTC 12.4K followers, 1513 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $HLT $HAS $T $COF $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP $RKT $NOK $ASML $MS $MCO $GEV $LII" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:36:54 UTC 12.4K followers, 2376 engagements
"Were seeing an inflation market pricing a premium around the Fed independence risk said Meghan Swiber a US rates strategist at Bank of America. Ultimately if youre putting pressure on the Fed in an environment where unemployment is low and were still seeing inflation a far cry from the Feds target you ultimately have the market trading and perceiving more persistent upside risk to the inflation landscape. The nightmare scenario is the Fed loses its independence tariff inflation is big and the fiscal policy turns out to be more simulative ahead of mid-term election and its all happening at the" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 13:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2495 engagements
"As noted two weeks ago were now into the meat of the April/May volatility on the 3-mth realized volatility lookback which you can see by the sharp drop in the chart of realized volatility and well continue to drop some big numbers including XXX XXX XXX & XXX% lookback days. That should see the 3-mth lookback realized volatility continue to to drop like a rock. The 1-mth lookback though continues to remain much less favorable (although it did drop a bit last week) and will likely not provide much buying power (but would provide selling on a jump in volatility). While we do get two days of 1%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1097 engagements
"Leveraged ETF AUM in the two largest single stock ETFs $TSLA and $NVDA both also moved higher last week with TSLA +$569mn to $8.5bn the highest since March while NVDA was +$486mn to $6.4bn the highest since Feb. 3rd place $MSTR though -$183mn to $3.1bn. $COIN moved back into the fourth spot just above $PLTR at $1.33b vs $1.21bn" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 12:00:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 2710 engagements
"BBG: China boosted shipments of rare earth magnets in June including to the US after a global supply squeeze that threatened factory closures and inflamed trade tensions. Total cargoes of the magnets rose to 3188 tons last month according to Chinese data on Sunday more than double volumes of 1238 tons in May in the midst of Chinas curbs. Flows to the US alone rose to XXX tons up from just XX tons. Total shipments were still substantially lower than before Beijing launched export controls in early April" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 03:07:14 UTC 12.4K followers, 1503 engagements
"$CMG Chipotle shares down nearly -XX% adding to its -XX% slump YTD after cutting FY sales guidance for the second time this year to flat y/y. Despite a number of new offerings and promotions comp sales were -X% worse than expected and the second consecutive quarter of falling comps" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:47:11 UTC 12.4K followers, 1914 engagements
"JPM: Q2 consensus forecasts have been cut substantially (top chart) for the S&P XXX with the implied yoy growth rate at +3.5% y/y down from +11% y/y at the start of the year. The unassuming hurdle rate suggests beats at headline level for Q2 but this is in the backdrop of strong recent equity rally so there could be disappointments if earnings do not deliver or if the guidances are mixed which we have seen. Further out earnings are expected to climb more steeply in 2H delivering XX% growth rate in Q4 vs Q2 middle chart. That is quite optimistic as the historical median growth rate over those" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 11:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 2174 engagements
"BoA: We estimate that FX was a 60-70bp tailwind in 2Q vs. a 1.1ppt headwind in 1Q. By sector Tech is estimated to have seen the biggest tailwind (130bp) followed by Materials (90bp). In general we estimate every XX% drop in the USD translates to a X% boost to EPS all else equal" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 13:49:16 UTC 12.4K followers, 3062 engagements
"SocGen: The $DXY index has decoupled markedly from Treasury yields since Liberation Day. Generally there is a positive correlation between US bond yields and the US dollar: when bond yields increase the dollar tends to strengthen as higher yields draw foreign investors seeking appealing opportunities in US Treasuries. However since trade tariffs have been imposed on all trading partners US bond yields have risen while the dollar has weakened. $USD" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-10 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2495 engagements
"Goldman says they see a highly unusual discrepancy between the "the front month VIX future which is extremely elevated vs implied volatilityThe roll down is huge. We think a lot of this is due to the massive growth in the VIX ETN complex as retail investors pile in to these products - this essentially leads to the VIX market acting a bit more short gamma: selling more vol on days when vol is down and buying more vol on days vol is up to stay rebalanced. The conclusion here is that with VIX future at such an elevated level and roll down so steep as UX1 comes in more equity buying ensues" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 14:10:18 UTC 12.4K followers, 2943 engagements
"BBG: car repossessions in 2024 hit 1.73mn the most since 2009 up XX% y/y according to Cox Automotive" @neilksethi on X 2025-03-26 18:10:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1187 engagements
""Wearable camera maker GoPro soared XX% in early trading doughnut maker Krispy Kreme was up XX% and Beyond Meat jumped 16%. The other two recent day-trader favorites were mixed with Opendoor Technologies Inc. dropping as much as XX% and Kohls Corp. advancing 1.8%." "Call volume on Krispy Kreme exploded on Tuesday with a record of over 100000 contracts trading equivalent to XX times the average daily volume over the past four years according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile GoPro had the highest call volume since 2021 with over 56000 contracts."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:01:39 UTC 12.4K followers, 1668 engagements
"Goldman: Prime book positioning in semi's "is at the highs (consistent with market sentiment around the group)."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 15:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2326 engagements
"We'll get a lighter start to what will be the second heaviest week of earnings reports next week with X SPX components of which just one is $100bn in market cap (VZ)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 23:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2149 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $LEVI $COIN $MSTR $BP $AMC $EWC $CCJ $TD $PFCG $AVAV $KTOS $NSANY $BA $TOL" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-11 12:51:45 UTC 12.4K followers, 1768 engagements
"$CMG: Chipotle down nearly -XX% on pace for its worst day since Oct. XX 2017 when it fell 14.6%. If it closes at current levels it will be the lowest close since Jan 2024. Year to date its seen a decline of almost 25%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 19:38:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"$PEP PepsiCo shares up XXX% following its earnings this morning its best one day gain since March 2020" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 19:42:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1755 engagements
"MarketWatch: 0DTE options continue to grow now accounting for more than XX% of total daily activity for S&P XXX options according to the CBOE. While institutions certainly trade 0DTE retail traders are responsible for a growing share of overall volume according to Mandy Xu head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe. Xu said in a report published back in May estimating them at between XX% and XX% of S&P XXX 0DTE trading. Theyre selling options in a capped-risk way to generate some income Henry Schwartz vice president of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe told MarketWatch during an" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 10:00:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1008 engagements
"NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) which had been relatively strong the last couple of weeks but weaker since Friday improved Thurs to 69.7%. A very good result for the +0.51% gain in the index. Compare that to Wed when it was XXXX% on a slightly larger gain of +0.55% (circle)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 20:44:02 UTC 12.4K followers, 2870 engagements
"Goldman: One reason why President Trump might raise tariffs further is that the costs of the trade war have been smaller than anticipated so far. At least as far as inflation is concerned however we think this mostly reflects lags related to large-scale inventory building before the tariffs hit. For the earliest Trump tariffs these lags have now run their course. Our estimates for June imply that XX% of the tariffs implemented in February have passed through raising the core PCE price index by a cumulative 0.2%. With an estimated XXX% price level increase yet to come we expect the" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 16:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1584 engagements
"DB notes the basket of stocks with high net call volumes are highly volatile and have poor profitability. Meanwhile crypto funds ($3.4bn) continued their strong run with their largest weekly inflows in X months. However other measures of exuberance remain subdued with for example continued outflows from US equities overall as well from leveraged and single-stock ETFs" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 15:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1715 engagements
"$BLK In a sign of what might be high expectations for 2025 winners this earnings season JPM is modestly lower despite a strong report and Blackrock is down over -X% despite pulling in another $68bn in AUM taking it to a record $12.5tn and smashing earnings expectations with a $XX% y/y gain to $12.05/share vs street estimates for $10.87" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-15 14:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1370 engagements
"Earnings will continue to build Tuesday with XX SPX reporters of which nine are $100bn in market cap (KO PM RTX TXN ISRG COF DHR CB LMT (highest to lowest market caps))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 00:08:38 UTC 12.4K followers, 2391 engagements
"$IBM the 3rd largest reporter today down -X% as software sales missed expectations even as they increased XX% y/y. Consulting which had been in a slump also inflected to a positive 3%. Infrastructure sales were +14% above expectations driven by the strongest initial launch of a mainframe product in IBMs history Chief Financial Officer Jim Kavanaugh said in an interview. Also note the stock coming in was up XX% for the year so in part a victim to perhaps too high expectations. IBM maintained its annual sales forecast of at least X% growth in constant currency. Free cash flow is projected to" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:43:17 UTC 12.4K followers, 2217 engagements
"It wasn't just Opendoor though. Penny stock volumes (which I treat as sub $X so ex-Opendoor) accounted for X of the remaining XX stocks by volume and the total volume in those stocks came in at a huge 2.6bn or XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume up from XXXX% Friday. And if you add Opendoor which traded XXXX billion shares on its own they accounted for XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 20:52:16 UTC 12.4K followers, 7031 engagements
"In terms of how markets are handling earnings beats & misses for 1Q it seems investors are so far taking a glass half-full approach (different than what Goldman has seen although Factset looks at X days before to X days after an earnings release) saying beats have seen a +2.5% reaction the best in over X years (vs +1.9% in Q1 and versus the average of +1.0% the last X yrs) while misses are being punished around average (-2.3% vs 5-yr avg of -XXX% but more than Q1s -XXX% (although in Q1 the vast majority of reports came in the context of the 20+% recovery in stocks from the April lows))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 12:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3515 engagements
"BoA notes on gamma positioning that as of Thursdays close SPX gamma was +$2.6bn (47th 1y %ile) a relatively modest figure. However a large portion of Thursdays gamma footprint is due to Julys 3rd Friday expiry (i.e. 18-Jul) which is now past. So BoA sees gamma as remaining relatively low but still positive which should have some marginal dampening impact on volatility but as of Thursday at least it saw a big wall that is perhaps what has kept SPX rallies from extending. It remains little changed on declines until around the 6150 but then builds. Again though this is all likely to change as" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 11:59:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 4008 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged up +0.2% as it trades not far from the highest levels since Sep XX. Major regional indices traded mixed. Japan's Nikkei -XXX% Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.6% China's Shanghai Composite +0.5% India's Sensex -XXX% South Korea's Kospi +1.6% and Australia's All Ordinaries -0.6%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Shanghai Securities News speculated that the Chinese government will strengthen its stimulus efforts during the second half of the year. Separately Beijings messaging has noticeably shifted in recent weeks with President Xi and other" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-10 13:17:41 UTC 12.4K followers, 1372 engagements
"Despite the stronger than expected June retail sales and July Philly Fed manufacturing index and low weekly jobless claims Goldman cuts Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) as core retail sales growth for both April and May was revised down. Their Q2 domestic final sales estimate remained at +0.9%. They also lowered their June core PCE estimate to XXXX% (from 0.26%) on the soft import prices data corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.73%. "Headline import prices rose XXX% in June below expectations. Import prices ex-petroleum were flat also below" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 15:14:11 UTC 12.4K followers, 3239 engagements
"DB: Our measure of equity positioning rose again this week to turn overweight for the first time since late February (0.05sd 44th percentile). As we have laid out over the last few weeks even with equities at record highs positioning is not yet elevated. In the absence of a clear negative catalyst there is room for positioning to continue trending higher" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 14:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1501 engagements
"It may be a summer Friday but well still get some earnings of note with another X SPX reports (two $100bn in market cap (AXP SCHW (in order of market cap))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 23:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1984 engagements
"Wall Street's biggest bull remains Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey who bless him hasn't changed his SPX YE price target this year sticking with the 7007 he set in December. What were seeing is the winners continue to win Harvey said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance. The uber-cap companies have the higher margins are gaining more market share. There is a real secular trend in AI that will continue. The S&P is not the same as it was XX years ago he said. It is much stronger the fundamentals are much better today than they were back then. In particular the indexs leaders are more" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 11:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1437 engagements
"MS says we can expect more volatility today with a bias for a down day. "when a large share of market cap reports in a day SPX absolute returns tend to be larger and slightly more negative than average."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 11:00:01 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"The 2yr yield more sensitive to #FOMC policy -4bps to XXXX% ending the week -2bps lower. It is -46bps below the Fed Funds midpoint so still calling for rate cuts but also up +15bps this month" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 19:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1200 engagements
"In contrast to a longer term reaction to earnings reports (two days prior to two days after) which Factset says have been better than 5-yr avgs BBG says looking just the next XX hours shows earnings misses seeing the worst performance since 3Q '22 at -5.1%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 15:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2107 engagements
"MarketWatch: Blackrock remains bullish on bonds noting income in the bond market hasnt looked this good in XX years. Higher-for-longer policy rates have made this the best backdrop for earning income in bonds in two decades without taking more interest-rate or credit risk the asset-management giant said in a note Monday. Some XX% of global fixed-income assets now offer yields above X% as interest rates have settled above prepandemic levels. In the chart BlackRock showed the market share of fixed-income assets with a yield of X% or more. We like short-term government bonds BlackRock added" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 19:20:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1083 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $KVUE $NCNO $RIVN $SEDG $RIOT $CLSK $MARA $SNPS $ANSS $AFRM $FAST $ADSK $TSLA $UNCRY $BA $MSTR $HOOD $GOOG $META $AMZN $CRWD $PTC $WAT $BDX" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-14 12:45:40 UTC 12.4K followers, 2421 engagements
"DB: Volatility has continued to creep lower with sensitivity to inflation releases near the lowest in X years. Implied vols have fallen sharply not just in equities but across most asset classes with FX a notable exception. The decline in implied vols largely reflects falling realized volatilities and in fact are arguably too high relative to them. While inflation continues to remain in focus in the context of tariff impacts the volatility priced into the S&P XXX vol curve ahead of CPI days has been falling sharply and for last weeks CPI release was near the lowest in X years" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 19:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1140 engagements
"NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) which improved considerably Tuesday to XXXX% the best in nearly a month and 2nd best in nearly two months edged back to XXXX% despite a stronger index performance at XXXX% vs +0.70% Tues so a bit of a negative divergence there" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 21:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 3859 engagements
"US equity indices started the day little changed but dipped into the red in the first hour led by a -X% drop in the Nasdaq after reports the $500bn "Stargate" project was being scaled back (SOX -1.3%). All but the Nasdaq made it back into the green led by the RUT's +0.8%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 20:40:16 UTC 12.4K followers, 1378 engagements
"Japan's Jul flash PMI remains unchanged at XXXX as an improvement in services (53.5 from 51.7) offset an unexpected drop in manufacturing back into contraction (48.8 from XXXX in June (50.2 exp'd)). "Latest Flash PMI data signalled a further modest increase in overall private sector business activity across Japan during July. However this masked divergent underlying trends with stronger growth across the service industry contrasting with a fresh fall in factory output. At the same time overall employment and new business rose only marginally across the private sector as a whole. Business" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 01:09:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 2430 engagements
"With the reports from Nvidia's biggest customers Microsoft Alphabet Amazon & Meta showing a combined $59bn into data center gear and other fixed assets in the third quarter a quarterly record according to BBG it bodes well for $NVDA's report Wed. If youre owning Nvidia the big buyers out there need to keep buying and every quarter they need to buy more said Mike Bailey director of research at Fulton Breakefield Broenniman. You can check that box" @neilksethi on X 2024-11-18 15:58:00 UTC 12.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Two different defense stocks two very different performances since May 1st. $LMT Lockheed Martin hitting a new 52-week low on the back of the companys second-quarter revenue miss. Shares were down over -X% putting its decline since May 1st at almost -13%. By contrast shares of $NOC Northrop Grumman were trading at all-time highs dating back to the Northrop Aircraft and Grumman Aerospace merger in 1994. That stock has surged more than +16% since May 1st" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 19:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2745 engagements
"As noted at the start of the week its a light calendar for US economic data this week and Wed well just get existing home sales along with weekly mortgage applications and EIA petroleum inventories. The Fed will remain in their blackout. Well get a 20yr Treasury auction. Normally I would say nobody will pay any attention but after everyone got worked up about a 20yr auction a couple of months ago I guess you never know. Earnings though are expected to be the star of the show Wed with our heaviest day of the week w/36 SPX reporters of which eleven are $100bn in market cap including two of the" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 00:29:57 UTC 12.4K followers, 2753 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GPRO $DNUT $DOW $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $HON $AAL $AEO $TMUS $LVS $IBM $VKNG $MOH $DB $BX $LHX" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 13:00:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 2085 engagements
"US equity markets started the day modestly higher (as they have every session this week) but today they dropped right from the open into negative territory and didn't really recover. SPX & Nasdaq ended flat DJIA & RUT sported modest losses" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 20:10:53 UTC 12.4K followers, 2552 engagements
"With the cost of protection against a XX% SPX decline over the next month versus a XX% gain at the lowest level since January trading desks at firms including Goldman Sachs JPM BofA and Citadel Securities are telling clients to buy cheap hedges against potential losses. If you are nervous the market is making it very easy to rent hedges Goldmans trading desk wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Its time to buy volatility BofA Securities Inc.s John Tully wrote to clients on Monday noting that the VIX Index historically tends to hit the lowest level of the year in July. He recommends clients" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 15:15:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 1552 engagements
"MarketWatch: Barclays strategists led by Venu Krishna have their own metric for retail sentiment something called the equity euphoria index which measures the percentage of stocks in euphoric territory and is now surging toward the highest levels of the year. Its a proprietary measure culled from the options market and could be more reflective of market conditions given the way retail investors now use zero-day-to-expiration and other aggressive derivative products. Strategists at the bank said the dynamic of individual stocks both increasing in price and in volatility is a hallmark of upside" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 15:45:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1162 engagements
"From the always great @dailychartbook nightly email (more info at the link at the bottom) Ned Davis Research has a nice "composite" seasonality chart which consists of equal weight to the normal seasonal cycle 4-yr Presidential cycle and 10-yr decennial cycle which has a similar story of a peak right about now with a choppy period through October but with less of a drawdown and then a really nice 2-mth rally into YE" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 10:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 5122 engagements
"Goldmans Sentiment Indicator which combines nine measures of institutional foreign and retail investor positioning fell back three tenths to -XXX. The indicator has still not registered a positive reading since February" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 09:30:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 2992 engagements
"Japan's sovereign bond yields (JGBs) continued to push higher led by the 40-yr jumping 17bps and the 20-yr hitting fresh 25-yr highs which BBG attributes to "thin liquidity and increasing worries about higher government spending in Japan. heightened by the looming election on July 20." But that latter concern is a global one. In Germany long-term borrowing costs were on course to hit their highest since 2011 amid concern over tariffs and extra government spending. In Japan focus has intensified on the nations upper house election with several local Japanese media polls pointing to the" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-14 12:00:45 UTC 12.4K followers, 6047 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): Reason Powell is under Trump Pressure. Gov't spending is $7tn Trump can't cut $4tn mandatory spending and has backed off DOGE promises of $1tn in discretionary cuts (plus Iran/Ukraine means no change to $1tn in defense spending) leaves $1tn of interest rate cuts as sole vehicle to cut big gov't spend. XXXX% Fed funds would stabilize interest costs and Fed funds at X% (5-yr yield at 2.5%) would cut interest costs by $200bn" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 12:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 8668 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell back -XXX% as it continues its recent chop a little below the highest levels since Sep XX hit two weeks ago. Major regional indices were mostly lower. Japan's Nikkei -XXX% Hong Kong's Hang Seng -XXX% China's Shanghai UNCH India's Nifty +0.1% South Korea's Kospi -XXX% and Australia's All Ordinaries -0.8%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto on Wednesday confirmed he struck a XX% tariff deal with US President Donald Trump. The two nations agreed and concluded to take trade relations to a new era of" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-16 13:59:50 UTC 12.4K followers, 1665 engagements
"While the big cap strength and "other 493" weakness saw the best return on the worst breadth a week ago as Duality notes today we "flipped the script"" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 01:43:52 UTC 12.4K followers, 2731 engagements
"This morning's meme stock de jure is apparently Kohl's $KSS. MarketWatch: Kohl's Corp. stock was up more than XX% shortly after the opening bell on Monday. Shares had risen by roughly XXX% at one point during the premarket session. Just five minutes after the opening bell Kohl's was halted for volatility by Nasdaq. Kohl's stock has a high short-interest ratio relative to its float. It recently stood at XX% according to FactSet data" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 14:15:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1328 engagements
"$AXP American Express shares up around X% adding to a X% YTD gain following better than expected card transaction volumes with revenues up XXX% y/y. They maintained prior FY sales and earnings guidance. We saw record card member spending in the quarter demand for our premium products was strong and our credit performance remained best in class Chief Executive Officer Steve Squeri said in a statement Friday" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 12:22:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1718 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was mildly lower -XXX% Monday as it continues to pull back modestly from the highest levels since Sep XX hit two weeks ago. Major regional indices traded mixed. Japan's Nikkei -XXX% Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.3% China's Shanghai Composite +0.3% India's Sensex -XXX% South Korea's Kospi +0.8% and Australia's All Ordinaries -0.1%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Despite US tariffs China exports rose XXX% y/y in June to a record high for the first half of a year even as US bound shipments fell -XXXX% as exports to other Southeast Asian countries" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-14 13:03:44 UTC 12.4K followers, 1710 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $BAC $MS $GS $ASML $JNJ $BMNR $SBIT $BTBT $MSTR $MARA $DEO $CVLT $RNLSY $NVDA $BHF $APO $KKR $ARES $BX" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-16 12:25:32 UTC 12.4K followers, 2598 engagements
"CNBC: ETFs focused on China have run circles around the broad U.S. market this week. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF ( $KWEB) has surged more than X% this week while the iShares MSCI China ETF ( $MCHI) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF ( $FXI) have climbed around X% the latter on track for its biggest weekly gain since February. By comparison the S&P XXX has risen about XXX% over the same period" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 16:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1301 engagements
"Pres Trump seems to confirm that countries hoping for the XX% tariff arrangement the UK has will be disappointed and they'll be lucky to get the Japan deal (15% on all products). Well have a straight simple tariff of anywhere between XX% and XX% Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. A couple of we have XX because we havent been getting along with those countries too well. He said talks with the European Union were serious. If they agree to open up the union to American businesses then we will let them pay a lower tariff Trump said" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 01:30:01 UTC 12.4K followers, 1921 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are indicated modestly higher (as they also were every session last week) following a welcomed less newsy period since Fridays close. Later this morning well get leading/coincident indicators. Elsewhere bond yields are falling back as is the dollar. Crude and nat gas are also lower while gold copper and bitcoin are higher. $SPX +0.1% $NDX +0.1% $RUT +0.5%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 13:18:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1538 engagements
"BoA: Weve heard upbeat commentary on AI monetization potential but over the long-term the degree of AI monetization remains in question and companies in reinvestment cycles have historically underperformed. In our view AI capex is a bigger tailwind for the market than idiosyncratic AI monetization. Semis are the most obvious beneficiaries but capex growth is expected to slow going forward. AI and the physical buildout of data centers should also lead to more demand for electrification construction utilities commodities etc. ultimately creating more jobs" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 17:40:00 UTC 12.4K followers, 1137 engagements
"UK home sellers dropped asking prices -XXX% m/m in July to 373709 ($502810) the most for any July on record (to 2005) with the steepest discounts offered at the more expensive end of the property market with prices in London falling -XXX% more than any other region. The top-tier saw the largest drop down -XXX% to an average of 687422" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 09:00:03 UTC 12.4K followers, 1574 engagements
"UK's flash PMI remained in expansion in July but edged back slightly to XXXX from XXXX in June and below the XXXX expected. The manufacturing output index improved to a still-stagnant score of XX suggesting an eight-month contraction in production ended but the overall PMI remained in contraction and the UKs larger services sector suffered a slowdown to reading of XXXX down from XXXX. Firms cut employment at the fastest pace in five months new orders declined after picking up in June export sales fell for a ninth straight month and input price inflation rose. Chris Williamson Chief Business" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 12:41:09 UTC 12.4K followers, 1604 engagements