#  @neilksethi Neil Sethi US equity markets are experiencing a mix of positive and negative trends, with strong earnings reports from major companies such as banks and tech firms, but also concerns about volatility and potential economic uncertainty. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with some investors expecting a cut as early as October. Despite some bearish sentiments, many strategists remain constructive on the market, citing strengthening corporate fundamentals and a historically strong November. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +30% - [--] Month [---------] +0.42% - [--] Months [----------] +75% - [--] Year [----------] +405% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/posts_active)  - [--] Week [---] -17% - [--] Month [---] +21% - [--] Months [-----] +17% - [--] Year [-----] +12% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +6.90% - [--] Month [------] +10% - [--] Months [------] +60% - [--] Year [------] +324% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 70.51% [stocks](/list/stocks) 26.5% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 13.25% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 8.97% [exchanges](/list/exchanges) #772 [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 4.7% [countries](/list/countries) 4.27% [financial services](/list/financial-services) #2598 [currencies](/list/currencies) 2.56% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 1.71% **Social topic influence** [stocks](/topic/stocks) #1979, [spx](/topic/spx) #28, [in the](/topic/in-the) 12.39%, [ai](/topic/ai) 8.97%, [commodities](/topic/commodities) #82, [the most](/topic/the-most) 8.55%, [market cap](/topic/market-cap) #179, [$100bn](/topic/$100bn) 6.41%, [fomc](/topic/fomc) #49, [market](/topic/market) #4498 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@finvizcom](/creator/undefined) [@zegoodtrader](/creator/undefined) [@dailychartbook](/creator/undefined) [@jwnfl007](/creator/undefined) [@moneymenpod](/creator/undefined) [@patrickbaker41](/creator/undefined) [@stocknews690137](/creator/undefined) [@brahimgkkaya20](/creator/undefined) [@gfxfts](/creator/undefined) [@ericsoda](/creator/undefined) [@sharkhh](/creator/undefined) [@christinelshort](/creator/undefined) [@reuters](/creator/undefined) [@newyorkfed](/creator/undefined) [@chartfest1](/creator/undefined) [@subutrade](/creator/undefined) [@thechartreport](/creator/undefined) [@almanactrader](/creator/undefined) [@cbarraud](/creator/undefined) [@fitbusinessman](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM)](/topic/$qcom) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [Sandisk Corporation (SNDK)](/topic/$sndk) [Texas Instruments (TXN)](/topic/$txn) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)](/topic/$lly) [Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [Bank of America (BAC)](/topic/bank-of-america) [Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)](/topic/$abnb) [Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)](/topic/$rivn) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Intel Corporation (INTC)](/topic/$intc) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Arm Holdings plc (ARM)](/topic/$arm) [aelf (ELF)](/topic/$elf) [O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)](/topic/$orly) [Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)](/topic/$algn) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)](/topic/$csco) [Fortinet Inc (FTNT)](/topic/$ftnt) [Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD)](/topic/$wbd) [Exxon Mobil (XOM)](/topic/$xom) [SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)](/topic/$gld) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Looks like you can throw out the Nasdaq positive volume metrics for Thursday. Two penny stocks (Healthcare Triangle Inc. (HCTI) at a huge 5.7bn shares (it was up 226% Thursday to $0.30) and Greenlane Holdings Inc. (GNLN) at 4.1bn shares (which was up 100% to $0.15)) accounted for 80% of the volume. @neilksethi the data seems odd but 75% of the Naz volume looks to be in two penny stocks. @neilksethi the data seems odd but 75% of the Naz volume looks to be in two penny stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1933456813225357795) 2025-06-13T09:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "MarketWatch: The Roundhill Meme Stock exchange-traded fund was up more than 5% Thursday while shares of GameStop Corp. were on pace for a ninth straight day of gains which would be their longest winning streak since Aug. [--] [----] according to Dow Jones Market Data" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996630578947412277) 2025-12-04T17:20Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements "While copper and gold miner Freeport-McMoRan is up 23% in December and 39% YTD it remains a good 20% below its all-time high from May [----]. (Monthly chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2004635828212170978) 2025-12-26T19:30Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $TCOM $NFLX $WBD $PANW $CHKP $FTNT $WFC $BAC $C $TSLA $ABNB $SHEL $XOM $BIIB $NVO $INFY $CRWD $ZS $MSTR $RIVN $NVDA http://Briefing.com Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Wells Fargo Bank of America Netflix & more https://t.co/Ss8aF2A0qH http://Briefing.com Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Wells Fargo Bank of America Netflix & more https://t.co/Ss8aF2A0qH" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2011443285861032431) 2026-01-14T14:20Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $IBRX $CPNG $QXO $PNC $POAHY $INTC $F $WMT $MU $SNDK $NVO $JBHT $RF http://Briefing.com Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: PNC ImmunityBio Coupang & more https://t.co/oXiYnpAF5a http://Briefing.com Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: PNC ImmunityBio Coupang & more https://t.co/oXiYnpAF5a" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2012165043354222744) 2026-01-16T14:08Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "Q4 SPX earnings season will continue Tuesday with [--] SPX reporters highlighted by NFLX. IBKR is the other which is over $100bn in market cap. We'll also get more regional banks (including the largest USB) the largest homebuilder in DHI an airline in UAL and two industrials (FAST MMM). Netflix and 3M among those reporting next week: https://t.co/5Pd3DnkWMd Netflix and 3M among those reporting next week: https://t.co/5Pd3DnkWMd" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2013409262689755493) 2026-01-20T00:32Z 20.2K followers, [----] engagements "BBG: Tuesday is the worst cross-asset decline across SPX TLT (20+ yr Treasuries) LQD (Corp IG) HYG (Corp HY) and IBIT (Bitcoin) since April" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2013710943251824806) 2026-01-20T20:31Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Q4 SPX earnings continue Friday but a lighter day ahead of our heaviest week of the season next week with two SPX reporters neither of which are over $100bn in market cap in energy exploration firms SLB and BKR (in descending order of market cap). Busy week in earnings: https://t.co/zNQ3V1dvOQ Busy week in earnings: https://t.co/zNQ3V1dvOQ" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2014495797103194193) 2026-01-23T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Hartnett (Flow Show): The Biggest Picture: silver price in Japanese yen at all-time high (Chart 2) surpasses [----] high; Japan debasement and weak Asian FX spurring big capital outflows into US & EU assets (e.g. Korean retail $100bn into US stocks Chart 4); watch Aussie dollar vs Japan yenAUDJPY110 = multi-year breakout to 35-year high = risk-stays-on; failure (on BoJ intervention) = peak of weak Asia FX-big outflow virtuous cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014646794118922346 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014646794118922346" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2014646794118922346) 2026-01-23T10:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "$GLD the SPDR Gold Shares ETF juuust edges out March [----] (+8.69% vs +8.66%) for the largest weekly gain since Sept [----] (+13.1%)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2014806088814575758) 2026-01-23T21:02Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "US economic data relatively light next week with mostly just a bunch of delayed reports in Dec PPI Nov durable goods factory orders trade balance and wholesale inventories along with the Conference Board Jan consumer confidence report and the normal weekly reports (ADP jobless claims mortgage applications petroleum inventories). But the Fed kicks back into the spotlight with the Jan FOMC decision although this will be the least exciting (if youre interested in the path of interest rates) since last summer with a hold a lock no updated SEP or dot plot and Jerome Powell likely to get as many" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2015053119294460146) 2026-01-24T13:24Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "And Goldman notes the dispersion between single stocks and the SPX is also seen in volatility: The spread of SPX average single stock 1m implied volatility to the index is in the 89th percentile on a 1y lookback and in the 97th percentile on a 5y lookback. Goldman notes that "we have been seeing a stock picker's market manifest in key vol metrics highlighting the chase for upside in single stock winners and a fade of a dramatic index rallies. "The spread of SPX Index skew to the average of its constituents is in the 93rd https://t.co/dvAwOjxLUe Goldman notes that "we have been seeing a stock" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2015160174906851547) 2026-01-24T20:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi added her voice to the warnings to financial markets about pushing too far for a weakening yen and/or rising bond yields confirming statements from the Finance Ministry that the government is ready to take action which come after the NY Fed was apparently conducting "rate checks" on Friday. It is not for me as a prime minister to comment on matters that should be determined by the market but we will take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly abnormal movements she said during a television debate among party leaders on Sunday. Given the" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2015420379167154600) 2026-01-25T13:43Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "DB: Like the S&P [---] our measure of equity positioning overall has continued to go sideways through a variety of short-lived tape bombs (0.41sd 68th percentile). Systematic strategies trimmed their overweight positioning this week as vol rose (0.67sd 79th percentile). Discretionary investors have raised positioning to a little above neutral the top of the cautious range in place since March (0.20sd 58th percentile). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015432469349364145 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015432469349364145" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2015432469349364145) 2026-01-25T14:32Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "MarketWatch: The VXSLV a gauge of the SLV's implied volatility jumped above [---] on Monday "briefly peaking near [---] intradayan extremely elevated level that could be consistent with a peak in silver prices" says Michael Kramer at Mott Capital Management. Kramer notes that the last time we saw VXSLV readings this high was during the COVID lows for silver in March [----]. "This may be signaling a developing inflection point not just for silver but for the broader metals complex particularly given the sharp reversals seen today in platinum and palladium alongside silver" says Kramer" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016239794599391387) 2026-01-27T20:00Z 20.4K followers, [----] engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TXN $STX $QRVO $FFIV Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Texas Instruments Seagate Technology Qorvo and more https://t.co/9CEEbHfeBL Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Texas Instruments Seagate Technology Qorvo and more https://t.co/9CEEbHfeBL" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016286436694110487) 2026-01-27T23:05Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Wed might be a rare Fed day where SPX earnings are the bigger story (particularly post-Fed) with three of the Mag-7 reporting after the close (MSFT META TSLA). In total there are again25 SPX components but [--] $100bn in market cap in MSFT META TSLA LRCX IBM APH GEV DHR T NOW SBUX ADP (in descending order by market cap). A packed earnings deck tomorrow led by ASML Meta &Microsoft: Before Open: $ASML $GEV $APH $T $GLW $GD $SBUX $VFC $PGR $DHR $TEVA $ELV $ADP $EAT After Close: $MSFT $META $TSLA $LRCX $NOW $WM $CLS $IBM $URI $LC $LVS $CCS $LEVI https://t.co/vQ48ZuZMu6 A packed earnings deck" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016319192467714464) 2026-01-28T01:15Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "As noted in the Week Ahead its a relatively light week (in terms of importance) for US economic data and Wednesday brings us just weekly mortgage apps and US petroleum inventory data. That will leave some room between morning earnings and the Fed decision at 2pm ET. As I mentioned in the Week Ahead: "this will be the least exciting (if youre interested in the path of interest rates) since last summer with a hold a lock no updated SEP or dot plot and Jerome Powell likely to get as many questions about Trump his future Fed independence etc. as he is about the economy and monetary policy.That" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016326689484058809) 2026-01-28T01:45Z 20.3K followers, [----] engagements "Nomura: We do not expect a clear signal from Powell on future rate cuts. He will likely reiterate that policy is in a good place to respond to future developments and that rates are currently within a range of plausible estimates of neutral. Data since the December meeting have been modestly hawkish but we think it is unlikely that dovish or centrist officials are prepared to take near-term rate cuts off the table. We continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold for the remainder of Chair Powells term followed by 25bp cuts in each of June and September. #FOMC" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016473834225013240) 2026-01-28T11:30Z 20.2K followers, [----] engagements "Redfin: A record 16.31% of homes under contract were cancelled in December the most on record to [----]. Over one in five (22.5%) pending home sales in Atlanta fell throughup from 19.6% in November and the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Jacksonville FL (20.6%) San Antonio (20.6%) Cleveland (20.2%) and Tampa (19.4%) rounded out the top five. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016536746096202137 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016536746096202137" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016536746096202137) 2026-01-28T15:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "As I mentioned yesterday with the Mag-7 earnings likely to outweigh the Fed in terms of implied volatility the 1-Day VIX rose to [----] despite dropping the FOMC as it incorporated those earnings. The current reading implies a 0.83% move in the SPX next session. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016662575036191068 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016662575036191068" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016662575036191068) 2026-01-29T00:00Z 20.4K followers, [----] engagements "SPX earnings remain top of mind Thurs with our heaviest reporting day of the week (and perhaps the season) with another Mag-7 in AAPL plus another [--] SPX components with [--] others $100bn in market cap in V MA CAT TMO KLAC BX HON LMT SYK PH CMCSA MO (in descending order by market cap). Tesla Meta Apple Microsoft & ASML are some of those reporting this week: $AAPL $MSFT $META $TSLA $V $MA $ASML $UNH $RTX $IBM $TXN $NOW $GEV $CAT $UPS $DECK $GM $AXP $WM $SAP $NOC $BA $BX $APH $PH $NUE $STLD $MO $RYAAY $LRCX $T $VZ $SOFI $AAL $LEVI https://t.co/wzs9D1N9jY Tesla Meta Apple Microsoft & ASML are" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016670125597090134) 2026-01-29T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "BoAs takeaways from yesterdays #FOMC decision and Powell press conference: In our view there were three major hawkish surprises in the January FOMC statement: -In the characterization current conditions the Fed noted that the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilizationWe were surprised by the Feds willingness to lean into a single favorable data print. -In the assessment of the balance of risks the committee removed the language saying that it judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.This also seemed like a significant step with private job growth averaging" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016851319479505052) 2026-01-29T12:30Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Nomura has a more optimistic view on the labor market noting that there "has been better breadth of job gains across sectors" recently and perhaps more importantly the fears of a huge downward revision to [----] job growth in the QCEW revisions next month may be overstated as "Q2 QCEW data suggest less risk of a future negative benchmark revision (Fig 4)". https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016858488765309382 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016858488765309382" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016858488765309382) 2026-01-29T12:58Z 20.2K followers, [----] engagements "SPX earnings will ease off from here but well still get another [--] SPX components reporting Friday with [--] $100bn in market cap in XOM CVX AXP VZ (in descending order by market cap). Busy week of earnings ahead as we move towards the peak weeks of the Q4 reporting season. We expect almost 1.3k global firms to report out of our 11k coverage. We'll start to hear from big tech as [--] of the #mag7 are set to report. Watch for: $AAPL $MSFT $TSLA $META $XOM $V https://t.co/tiEwlYTq58 Busy week of earnings ahead as we move towards the peak weeks of the Q4 reporting season. We expect almost 1.3k global" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017032512112120043) 2026-01-30T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "All righty the big day is coming as Pres Trump speaking at the premiere for Melania the film about first lady Melania Trump steals the spotlight saying Ill be announcing the Fed chair tomorrow morning." But it doesn't sound like it will be Rick Reider or Kevin Hassett as Trump teased a lot of people think this is somebody that couldve been there a few years ago." Assuming this is a reference to former Fed Gov Kevin Warsh odds on Kalshi of Warsh being the next Fed Chair have spiked to 85% while Rieder fell to 10% and current Gov Waller 3%. Trump says he will announce a replacement for Powell" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017050137290236337) 2026-01-30T01:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "DB: The #FOMC statement and press conference signaled that the Committee feels better about the economic outlook than it did in December. By extension the need for nearterm rate cuts has lessened. We therefore see the meeting as reinforcing our expectation that the Powellled Fed delivered its last rate cut in December. More broadly risks around our expectation of one rate cut this year in September have become more balanced. Although weaker labor market outcomes could trigger earlier rate cuts than anticipated incoming information supports our view that policy is near neutral and thus may not" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017201123866845611) 2026-01-30T11:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Nomura's McElligott notes that some trades are getting rather crowded: Crowded Stuff that EVERYBODY is into (CTA Trend to Macro Tourists / Retail Long Gold Silver Equities EM and Short USD) has continued to load with more positioning / exposure because its the only thing that keeps working (versus Rates and Vol being DEAD feeding-back into further low conviction) Which creates a risk where Profit-Take spills over "into a larger Risk Management Exercise of forced selling into Skinny Exits. But he notes the Good News is that most of these trends remain Deep In The Money vs risk-management" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017212448483209541) 2026-01-30T12:25Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "And it's official with a Truth Social post at 6.48am ET Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve (who typically would also be selected by the Governors as the chair of the #FOMC) with a lengthy list of Warsh's experience. I have known Kevin for a long period of time and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen maybe the best Trump wrote. On top of everything else he is central casting and he will never let you down. Warsh served on the US central banks Board of Governors (he was the youngest ever) from [----] to [----] and has previously" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017216972363112922) 2026-01-30T12:42Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "UK households scaled back their borrowing in December for the first time in three years suggesting sentiment remained cautious going in [----] in a potential warning sign for the tepid British economy. Banks and building societies authorized [-----] home loans down from [-----] in November and the lowest for [--] months the Bank of England said Friday. It was the first December fall since [----] surprising economists who on average had expected a modest increase to [-----]. The central bank also said consumers borrowed an extra [---] billion ($2.8 billion) of unsecured debt less than economists forecast." [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017224007548850544) 2026-01-30T13:10Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "MarketWatch We're seeing a modest curve steepening following the Warsh announcement with 10yr (red) and 30yr (blue) yields higher on the day with the 2yr (green) lower. I mentioned that Warsh has been an active critic of an expanded Fed balance sheet and Ian Lyngen head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO says that is playing into the action: The logic is relatively straightforward said Lyngen Warsh is viewed as being less inclined to use the Feds balance sheet to control longer dated interest rates than the other candidates considered by Trump to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. And it's" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017276621032755304) 2026-01-30T16:40Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "$SLV iShares Silver Trust down -16.6% it's worst day since Sept 2011" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017323325828034989) 2026-01-30T19:45Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Noticed this chart from the excellent @dailychartbook nightly email about how short interest particularly on the QQQ has fallen to new lows. The caption asks if it's complacency or signs of growing downside risk but to me it's likely less about complacency and more about being tired of being run over. Since April shorting this market for any sustained period has been a money losing endeavor. The problem is it removes a marginal buyer particularly on a sharp selloff where shorts might cover. But with no shorts there is less of that but the shorts have plenty of dry powder then to add on" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017568551016530428) 2026-01-31T12:00Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "MS: Our US economics team expects individual tax refunds issued to be $40-70bn higher than those in [----]. Using the midpoint of their estimated range individual tax refunds issued would amount to $350bn by the end of May or +20% y/y. In Exhibit [--] we show individual tax refunds issued (checks + EFT) over recent years. [----] and [----] had the highest totals as a result of Covid-related stimulus programs. While the ramp in individual tax refunds issued is still to come in late February this year refunds are running 16% above the prior year (Exhibit 2)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017573578242175406) 2026-01-31T12:20Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "New 52-wk highs minus new 52-wk lows (red lines) fell to the lows of the year on both the NYSE and Nasdaq Friday at [--] and [----] respectively (down from [---] and [---] on Jan 22nd the best since Nov 24). Markets Update - 1/30/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/YuN53xWpOT https://t.co/ytxqloHUIJ Markets Update - 1/30/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/YuN53xWpOT https://t.co/ytxqloHUIJ" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017704442553045139) 2026-01-31T21:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "With 33% of the SPX by earnings weight having reported (so still on the early side) through Thursday 75% have beaten (unch w/w down from 83% in Q3 which though was the best since Q2 21) below the 5yr average of 78% and the 10yr average of 76%" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017724048193589460) 2026-01-31T22:17Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Surprisingly the NY Feds 4Q GDP tracker remained just off the highest since it initiated tracking in August at 2.73% (the peak was 2.75% Jan 16th) not seeing any net changes from the very unexpected trade balance report (which saw cuts to other GDP trackers). As a reminder they were well under for 3Q at +2.31% vs the +4.3% actual first estimate and 2Q at +1.68% vs +3.0% after being too high for 1Q at +2.6% vs -0.3% (although they have been closer in most quarters prior to 2025)). And another reminder the model is dynamic and constantly updating itself (how it weights inputs etc.) to become" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017915834107301961) 2026-02-01T11:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "BoA: With the economic outlook improving we think the most important question for the Fed this year will be where is the neutral rate and how is it impacted by growing evidence of accelerating labor productivity. This matters because if policy is already neutral the case to cut rates would hinge mostly on the labor data. Even if inflation were a bit softer than expected there wouldnt be a compelling reason to cut if the labor and activity data are steady. Chair Powell got a few questions.His responses suggested he believes policy is still restrictive. We disagree. Powell noted that only three" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017940999008292929) 2026-02-01T12:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "I would have thought P/Es would have fallen w/w with the improvement in earnings expectations and flat to down weeks in the indices but all four that Yardeni tracks were unch w/w other than the Mag-7 which edged higher: -The SPX forward P/E (red line) remained at [----] (-1.8pts from the highest since [----] on Yardenis model (which is a bit lower than most others (presumably due to the forward earnings calculation and earnings data source))). -Mid-caps (blue S&P 400) at [----] (-0.2pts from the highest since [----] and -0.6pts from the highest since early-21 (17.1)). -Small caps (green S&P [---] so" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018059404378353687) 2026-02-01T20:30Z 20.2K followers, [----] engagements "BoA sees their 4Q GDP tracker give back two-thirds of the prior weeks +0.6% jump (still up +1.0% the last month) to 2.4% as of Thursday. They see real final sales to domestic purchasers coming in at +1.7% (unch)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018096589512847392) 2026-02-01T22:58Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "While were past the peak of SPX earnings its still a huge week with 25% of the SPX by earnings weight reporting consisting of around [---] SPX components with two more Mag-7s in GOOG & AMZN and another [--] $100bn in market cap in DIS PLTR AMGN AMD MRK CB PEP ETN PFE BSX CME MCK QCOM ABBV UBER BMY LIN COP KKR PM (by reporting date). Full list below from TradingView. Next week in earnings has Alphabet AMD Uber Qualcomm and Amazon reporting https://t.co/500LK6sKCQ Next week in earnings has Alphabet AMD Uber Qualcomm and Amazon reporting https://t.co/500LK6sKCQ" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018119676451238331) 2026-02-02T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "The Week Ahead - 2/1/26 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income Note this is going to a sub model ($10/mth) starting next week so check it out and see if you like it as I'll be posting less of the content. https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/the-week-ahead-2126 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/the-week-ahead-2126" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018160510508683749) 2026-02-02T03:12Z 21.4K followers, 17K engagements "Goldman: We expect solid spending growth will extend into [----] as tax cuts from the OBBBA add roughly $100bn to household tax refunds during the Feb-April filing season and forecast above-consensus 2.2% real PCE spending growth in [----] on a Q4/Q4 basis (vs. 2.3% in 2025)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018293327666511998) 2026-02-02T12:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "MarketWatch: Wall Street research firms see no reason to back away from their gold-price forecasts after Friday's retreat in the yellow metal. Deutsche Bank reiterated its $6000 call and JPMorgan increased its target by 25% to $6300. "Even with the likelihood of some positioning washing out over this pullback as gold remains a dynamic multi-faceted portfolio hedge we now forecast enough demand from central banks and investor diversification this year to ultimately push gold prices to $6300/oz by year end 2026" said JPMorgan's analysts led by Gregory Shearer. JPMorgan's silver target was also" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018365042782323190) 2026-02-02T16:45Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $PLTR $NXPI $TER $DVA $FN $RMBS $WWD Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Palantir NXP Semiconductors DaVita and more https://t.co/kwce2EoN0N Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Palantir NXP Semiconductors DaVita and more https://t.co/kwce2EoN0N" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018467601689767978) 2026-02-02T23:32Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Q4 earnings season rolls on and Tuesday well get [--] SPX components with seven $100bn in market cap in AMD MRK PEP AMGN PFE ETN CB (in order of market cap). AI spending anxiety is meeting peak earnings season. MSFTs recent plunge shows investors are laser-focused on capex ROI even amid beats. This week $GOOGL and $AMZN face the $500B capex test. Full analysis from @ChristineLShort on the "show me the money" phase of AI: https://t.co/VHPkDK349T AI spending anxiety is meeting peak earnings season. MSFTs recent plunge shows investors are laser-focused on capex ROI even amid beats. This week" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018482065608425685) 2026-02-03T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Meanwhile $IGV the iShares Tech Software ETF down around -4.9% today taking its losses since the end of October to -28% nearly 20% of that this year. In addition to seeing their stock prices impacted the SLOOS report (bank lending conditions) from the Fed for Q3 released yesterday indicated they may be having a harder time obtaining C&I loans: "a major net share of banks reported being less likely to approve such loans to https://t.co/D3edu16BH4 In addition to seeing their stock prices impacted the SLOOS report (bank lending conditions) from the Fed for Q3 released yesterday indicated they" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018786073791648234) 2026-02-03T20:38Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Fun fact SanDisk $SNDK has joined the $100bn club after adding another +4.6% today taking its market value gains to around $70bn this year. It is now larger than Western Digital $WDC who spun it off last year (even as WDC itself is up 68% this year)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018809898147135635) 2026-02-03T22:12Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "From the Daily Update Q4 earnings season rolls on and Wednesday well get [--] SPX components with another Mag-7 in GOOG. In addition well get seven other $100bn in market cap in LLY ABBV UBER QCOM BSX CME MCK (in order of market cap). https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2326 Next week is a packed one in earnings: https://t.co/SmktMckjhx https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2326 Next week is a packed one in earnings: https://t.co/SmktMckjhx" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018844451557322889) 2026-02-04T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "From the report: Japanese services companies signalled an increase in business activity for the tenth month in a row in January. Furthermore the respective seasonally adjusted index climbed from [----] in December to [----] to signal a solid rate of growth that was the most pronounced since last February. Underlying data split by sub-industry suggested that Finance & Insurance firms continued to lead the upturn while the softest rise in activity was seen across the Information & Communication segment. The stronger rise in services activity was supported by the fastest upturn in new work for four" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018888840606372160) 2026-02-04T03:26Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Citadel's Rubner: Retail activity in January was exceptional. Demand at Citadel Securities across both cash equities and options reached record January levels with average daily net inflows and contracts well above historical norms. Retail behavior was not just active but persistent. Retail traders at Citadel Securities were net buyers of cash equities and directionally skewed better to buy in options each week so far this year. Cumulatively January net inflows grew more than 50% versus January [----] underscoring the scale of early-year demand. Options activity also reached new January highs" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019021871430389997) 2026-02-04T12:15Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "For those who haven't subscribed the nightly Markets Update (link to last night's: provides a nightly snapshot of current #FOMC rate pricing from the CME FedWatch tool. From last night's report: "FOMC [----] rate cut pricing was almost unchanged but still edged with rounding to 49bps up from 47bps Mon but down from 53bps on Friday (pre-ISM). No cut is expected under Powell still with March at 9% (down from 51% Jan 6th) April 24% (from 63%) with the first cut in June which will be Warshs first meeting (57% but down from 68% Fri). A second cut remains in Oct at 54% but as compared to 55% chance" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019028356419740058) 2026-02-04T12:40Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "Goldman: AI At Risk (GSTMTAIR) had its worst day in nearly [--] years and third worst day on record Tuesday. Software was hurting across the board and our Broad Software Basket (GSTMTSFT) has now lost $2tn of value from the highs 30% drop in market cap to the least in [--] years. Even though software is now in a bear market and has entered oversold territory no one is stepping in to defend the complex yet and buyers continue to beware. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019029546713174100 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019029546713174100" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019029546713174100) 2026-02-04T12:45Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "BBG reports that a Morgan Stanley basket that goes long momentum winners (normally a [--] or 12-month lookback) and shorts recent losers is down -8.7% today (chart). A similar Goldman Sachs basket tumbled -11% at one point" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019142887594958934) 2026-02-04T20:15Z 20.3K followers, [----] engagements "Markets Update - 2/4/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2426 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2426" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019194074306347015) 2026-02-04T23:39Z 20.2K followers, 10.3K engagements "From the nightly Markets Update (link: Q4 earnings season rolls on and Thursday well get [--] SPX components reporting with another Mag-7 in AMZN. In addition well get four other $100bn in market cap in LIN COP BMY KKR (in order of market cap). https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2426 Thursday's earnings deck: Before Open: $UBER $LLY $ADNT $ABBV $NVO $CME $CDW $BG $CTSH $UBS $FTV $GEHC $BSX $JCI After Close: $GOOGL $ARM $ORLY $SYM $FLNC $ALL $COHR $ELF $QCOM $ALGT $MET $MOD $MCK $ALGN https://t.co/cyaSq4JWWr https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2426 Thursday's earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019206841386037344) 2026-02-05T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Some notable stats from the Markets Update as despite the down day in the SPX we had the most components up 3% or more this year (120) but just [--] of them were $100bn in market cap. In contrast [--] of the [--] components down 3% or more were $100bn in market cap (and four were $1tn) (chart from @finviz_com): In line with the positive sector breadth [---] SPX components were up 3% or more (the most this year) led by SuperMicro SMCI +13.8% one of three stocks up over 10% (with FTV and LLY). But just [--] of those [---] were $100bn in market cap (after [--] of [--] Mon) in LLY AMGN CB SBUX DE PFE UNP (in" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019241462039183577) 2026-02-05T02:47Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "From the update: Notably despite the big down day in the Nasdaq 52-wk highs minus lows didn't deteriorate and remained above Friday's low. Markets Update - 2/4/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/soax1FgacU https://t.co/gJEibiPwZu Markets Update - 2/4/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/soax1FgacU https://t.co/gJEibiPwZu" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019350292165439792) 2026-02-05T10:00Z 20.4K followers, [----] engagements "Nomura's McElligott notes that as he warned at the end of last year "with regard to this idea of these AI-tied Equities -inputs potentially then going From Tailwind to Headwind as catalyst for 1) Credit Spread widening 2) a negative Buyback impulse and 3) the prospective of a reversal blast of rebalancing out-of crowded legacy positioning in Expensive Secular Growth-themes (from both the older-era SaaS /Compounders to current AI -one and The Artist Formerly Known as Expensive Software) was a real risk to Stocks after a DECADE + of almost default assumption of the opposite."" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019388034245095840) 2026-02-05T12:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Challenger Jan job cuts jump +118% y/y to 108.5k the most since Oct and the most for any Jan since [----] after closing out [----] with the most cuts since [----] (and the 7th highest total since 1989). The 4th quarter saw the most cuts since [----]. Generally we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter but this is a high total for January. It means most of these plans were set at the end of [----] signaling employers are less-than-optimistic about the outlook for [----] said Andy Challenger workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger Gray & Christmas. 40% of those were due to" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019394050780979359) 2026-02-05T12:53Z 21.3K followers, [----] engagements "https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-january-job-cuts-surge-lowest-january-hiring-on-record/ https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-january-job-cuts-surge-lowest-january-hiring-on-record/" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019394053108892120) 2026-02-05T12:53Z 20.3K followers, [---] engagements "Governor Andrew Bailey was once again the swing voter in an unexpectedly close 5-4 decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% however Bailey confirmed in a statement that there should be scope for some further reduction in bank rate this year. The majority of economists polled by Bloomberg anticipated a 7-2 outcome. The yield on 10-year gilts dropped to 4.53% and traders now see a roughly 60% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the next decision in March compared with about 20% previously. Sterling traded 0.8% lower at $1.354 its weakest since Jan. [--] while two-year yields fell to 3.63% the" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019397412519846021) 2026-02-05T13:07Z 20.4K followers, [----] engagements "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/gilts-jump-pound-retreats-as-traders-bet-on-march-boe-rate-cut https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/gilts-jump-pound-retreats-as-traders-bet-on-march-boe-rate-cut" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019397414730584222) 2026-02-05T13:07Z 20.2K followers, [---] engagements "The banks forecasts showed inflation returning to the 2% target in April and then falling below for much of [----]. The minutes of the MPCs meeting said there was evidence of subdued economic growth and building slack in the labor market. The upside risks to inflation have become less pronounced it added. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019397924468195696 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019397924468195696" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019397924468195696) 2026-02-05T13:09Z 20.4K followers, [---] engagements "@JWnFL007 Not a bad thought. But its hard to spin it as supportive for equities in the short term" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019410973120180278) 2026-02-05T14:01Z 20.3K followers, [--] engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch $GOOGL $QCOM $EL $CARR $CPAY $ALGN $ELF $ARM $ORLY $AVGO $NVDA $ORLY $MSTR $COIN $HOOD $TPR $PTON $CAH $HSY $B $SYM $BNPFY $SHEL Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Qualcomm Strategy Align Estee Lauder and more https://t.co/0pJnpvArf0 Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Qualcomm Strategy Align Estee Lauder and more https://t.co/0pJnpvArf0" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019413252430786826) 2026-02-05T14:10Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "As We Approach The Open. 2/5/26 Quick roundup of markets ahead of the cash opening of US equities (no sub required) https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/as-we-approach-the-open-2526 Software stocks struggle Google's AI spending layoffs surge and more in Morning Squawk https://t.co/EHSuwSK6UE https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/as-we-approach-the-open-2526 Software stocks struggle Google's AI spending layoffs surge and more in Morning Squawk https://t.co/EHSuwSK6UE" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019416403137487343) 2026-02-05T14:22Z 20.3K followers, [----] engagements "MarketWatch: Bank of Americas global rates and currencies team found that although references to "Sell America" and "Dollar Debasement" across all media spiked significantly since the turn of the year there has only been one day of material co-selling of the dollar and the S&P [---] this year -- on Jan. [--]. For the Bank of America team led by Alex Cohen these market narratives seem exaggerated therefore and while as a house it remains generally dollar bearish it expects the path lower will be a more gentle slope than some commentators suggest. Moreover measures of dollar positioning captured by" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019493730718269745) 2026-02-05T19:30Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "$ORCL Oracle is closing in on the April lows now down -60% from the peak Sep 10th" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019539236907806766) 2026-02-05T22:30Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "Markets Update - 2/5/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2526 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2526" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019561013851615278) 2026-02-05T23:57Z 21.5K followers, 15.2K engagements "From last night's Markets Update (sub here: FOMC [----] rate cut pricing jumped higher following Challenger and JOLTS adding 10bps of cuts to now 60bps the highest in a month according to the CMEs Fedwatch tool. No cut is expected under Powell but its getting closer with March at 25% (up from 12% Wed (but down from 51% Jan 6th) April 42% (from 25% down from 63%) with the first cut in June which will be Warshs first meeting (79% (from 58%). A second cut now firmly back in Sept at 66% (from 49% Wed) but still as compared to a 55% chance of a July second cut on Jan 6th). Pricing for [----] as noted" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019727783245783442) 2026-02-06T11:00Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "Rubner: Historically retail cash activity at Citadel Securities has tended to moderate from January into February with seasonal patterns since [----] showing a consistent decline in net notional following the early-year surge. Recent price action suggests this risk is becoming more relevant. Periods of rotation back toward large-cap growth and defensives have coincided with pressure in retail-led themes underscoring their vulnerability. Citadel's Rubner: Retail activity in January was exceptional. Demand at Citadel Securities across both cash equities and options reached record January levels" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019738824511803742) 2026-02-06T11:43Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "BoA (Harnett Flow Show) notes EPFR flows week through Wed showed the biggest weekly outflow since Nov in crypto funds/ETFs at -$1.5bn. Hartnett notes on that and the rotation trade: $2tn crypto market cap loss since Oct = 10% of US consumer spend; Wall St sensibly rotating from AI spenders to beneficiaries services to manufacturing US exceptionalism to global rebalancing bond-bear losers to peak yield winners (REITs); but if wealth surge at top of K-shape US economy reverses at same time payrolls start fallingbiggest meltdown could be US Treasury yields." [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019756352080367731) 2026-02-06T12:53Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch $AMZN $RDDT $NVO $LLY $HIMS $CG $STLA $BX $MSTR Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Amazon Reddit Strategy Molina Strategy Eli Lilly & more https://t.co/eKaioqKbpS Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Amazon Reddit Strategy Molina Strategy Eli Lilly & more https://t.co/eKaioqKbpS" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019772341622911233) 2026-02-06T13:57Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "As We Approach The Open. 2/6/26 Quick roundup of markets ahead of the cash opening of US equities As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading solidly higher led by the small-cap Russell [----] (RUT) https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/as-we-approach-the-open-2626 Bitcoin's rough week Amazon's plunge Super Bowl ads and more in Morning Squawk https://t.co/F84zmW24j6 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/as-we-approach-the-open-2626 Bitcoin's rough week Amazon's plunge Super Bowl ads and more in Morning Squawk https://t.co/F84zmW24j6" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019776213481291887) 2026-02-06T14:12Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "While BoA and Goldman see SPX just entering into negative gamma Tier1Alpha sees gamma as "the most negative reading since October of last year" which implies "higher volatility is likely" even as the 10-day realized volatility "is still well below average for a GVT reading that is this negative as the structural dispersion we've been tracking all week has helped to buffer some of the close-to-close returns." "The most important thing to remember today is that negative gamma environments create instability in both directions. This means big upswings are just as likely as big downswings"" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019781879151370730) 2026-02-06T14:35Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - February (P) Sentiment rises to the best since Aug led by higher incomes but still remains historically low while 1-yr inflation expectations fall to a 1-yr low but remain historically elevated https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/university-of-michigan-survey-of-088 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/university-of-michigan-survey-of-088 US Univ. of Michigan Sentiment Feb P: [----] (est 55.0; prev 56.4) - Current Conditions: [----] (est 53.7; prev 55.4) - Expectations: [----] (est 55.1; prev 57.0) - 1-Year Inflation: 3.5% (est 4.0%; prev 4.0%) - 5-10 Year" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019800916220600635) 2026-02-06T15:50Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "SPX flirting with its best day of the year which would be the best since Thanksgiving week. 🦃" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019805786562502901) 2026-02-06T16:10Z 21.5K followers, 14.8K engagements "Something about bitcoin in February. Today's +12.5% gain in bitcoin is the largest since Feb '22 and before that Feb '21. Note though in those prior two cases it was part of a topping process that wouldn't bottom until Nov '22 (which started the most recent bull market)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019871218787291249) 2026-02-06T20:30Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements "$SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF +5.7% today its best day since May" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019879984077349232) 2026-02-06T21:04Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Markets Update - 2/6/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day/week with lots of charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2626 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2626" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019917852770247162) 2026-02-06T23:35Z 21.5K followers, 23.9K engagements "@moneymenpod I think that was actually the start of the post-vaccine bull run (Nov 9th was the Pfizer announcement)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019961539038703644) 2026-02-07T02:28Z 21.4K followers, [--] engagements "Each Market Update contains a breakdown of the SPX by heatmap top [--] performance and number of components up and down more than 3% (as well as how many were $100bn in market cap). Sub here (just need to make a small charitable donation Stock-by-stock flag from @finviz_com doesnt really need an explanation. Lots of green outside of just a few splotches of red (although a couple of those splotches are fairly large). In that regard eight of the largest [--] SPX components were higher led by NVDA +7.9% a bit better than AVGOs +7.2%. Leading to the downside easily was AMZN -5.6%. Mag-7 +0.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020105261302657302) 2026-02-07T12:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Goldmans US Equity Sentiment Indicator* after moving into stretched positioning (over 1.0) five weeks ago for the first time in nearly a year but falling back the following week to [----] (the first negative read in six weeks) spent a fourth week near the [--] mark for a second week right on it (0.0). *The indicator combines six weekly and three monthly indicators that span across the more than 80% of the US equity market that is owned by institutional retail and foreign investors. Readings of +1.0 or higher have historically signaled stretched equity positioning. Readings of [----] or lower have" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020112812693934225) 2026-02-07T12:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "On the "long Main Street" Harnett says "Main St plays e.g. EM small cap banks REITs assets punished H1 2020s by big bond bear market; [----] inflation surprises downside as AI chills labor market politicians address voter concerns over affordability; why Trump aggressive intervention to reduce price of energy healthcare credit housing electricity via Big Oil Big Pharma Big Banks Big Tech means small & mid-cap best play for "boom" on Main St in run-up to US midterms; plus flip from asset-light to asset-heavy business model suggests major threat to 2020s market leadership of Big Tech/Magnificent" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020122196694159642) 2026-02-07T13:07Z 21.5K followers, 21.1K engagements "Goldman: The launch of a legal automation tool and a new LLM by Anthropic along with broad ramping of AI capacity and services has led to a sharp rotation out of software and related sectors globally.Any company which collates aggregates disseminates software and data as a service are seen as increasingly vulnerable to disruption from AI-driven tools. As we show in Exhibit [--] the weight of these capital-light sectors where investors fear disruption (broadly defined) has collapsed while the mirror of this has been the rise in the weight of Financials (benefit from steeper yield curves) and" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020148041693774008) 2026-02-07T14:50Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Hartnett notes while he expects the key levels for "froth assets" to hold he notes "the painful price collapse of Wall St longs (Mag7 crypto precious private credit Chart 4) vs. Wall St shorts (small cap staples energy) driven by combo of peak positioning peak liquidity (less rate cuts more rate hikes) peak politics (low approval for equity-friendly Trump); but absent systemic event surge in US dollar (DXY to 100) and associated meltdown in Treasury yields we say this big healthy overdue unwind in 'froth.'" BoA (Hartnett Flow Show) says the "key levels" to watch in the froth unwind" are big" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020160624488075536) 2026-02-07T15:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Rubner: Positioning into January was defined by extraordinary demand. Liquidity surged early in the month volatility and correlations compressed and flows provided a powerful technical tailwind for risk assets. Both retail and institutional participation reinforced momentum allowing markets to absorb rotation and volatility without meaningful drawdowns. As February begins the technical backdrop is shifting. While liquidity remains ample the pace of incremental deployment has slowed and positioning is becoming more selective. With much of Januarys demand already expressed markets are" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020165665760608541) 2026-02-07T16:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "FT article looks at a working paper from the St Louis Fed which asked people to estimate how much time AI tools saved them at work and also examined recent labor productivity growth between the introduction of ChatGPT and the second quarter of [----] relative to its trend between [----] and [----]. This was supposed to strip out any pre-existing trends that could mess up the results. Combining these two metrics they found that the industries where workers were saving the most time using AI were also the ones seeing unusually fast labor productivity growth. These included information services as" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020173209493217315) 2026-02-07T16:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Citadel's Rubner: As February begins focus shifts from the breadth of Januarys gains to the durability of leadership. While the broader rotation trend remains intact recent price action suggests early signs of consolidation as incremental flows become more selective. That shift is evident in small-cap relative performance. The RTY/SPX ratio reached a one-year high on January 22nd reflecting strong early-year leadership from smaller-cap higher-beta exposure. Since then the ratio has eased back to the 92nd percentile of its one-year range as investors began to reintroduce exposure to large-cap" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020196360147058926) 2026-02-07T18:02Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Gene Tannuzzo of Columbia Threadneedle makes an interesting point about Warsh which is that while he will likely remain tilted towards the Fed's inflation mandate Janet Yellen came in with the same concern in the other direction and while she was perhaps the most dovish Fed Chair we've had her first move was a rate hike. https://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/29/yellen-to-be-more-dovish-than-helicopter-ben-cnbc-survey.html https://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/29/yellen-to-be-more-dovish-than-helicopter-ben-cnbc-survey.html" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020203406615523762) 2026-02-07T18:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Each Market Update also provides the daily positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) for the NYSE which Friday jumped to 80.8% the best since Nov 21st (and before that Aug). Still I would have liked a higher number given the +2.29% gain in the index. On Nov 21st the gain was just +1.26% with positive volume of 83.8% Sub here (just need to make a small charitable donation https://neilsethi.substack.com Markets Update - 2/6/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day/week with lots" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020210957243371919) 2026-02-07T19:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's gamble to expand her majority looks set to pay off in a big way with public broadcaster NHK reporting that her Liberal Democratic Party together with its coalition partner have already won [---] seats in the lower house comfortably expanding the previous razor-thin majority of [---] and putting them on track to win [---] seats which would represent a two-thirds super majority in the 465-seat body. Such a super-majority smooths the process for the LDP to push through more contentious legislation surrounding spending cuts to food taxes (and their length which" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020503617313116465) 2026-02-08T14:22Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "DB: Our measure of aggregate equity positioning declined this week to only slightly overweight (0.19sd 52nd percentile. -Discretionary investor positioning dropped to marginally underweight (-0.14sd 37th percentile) taking it to the lower half of the cautious range it has been in over the last [--] months. - Systematic strategies positioning also fell slightly but remained overweight (0.59sd 74th percentile). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020512953297248360 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020512953297248360" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020512953297248360) 2026-02-08T15:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "@PatrickBaker41 Yup. That said she was probably the most dovish fed chair weve had" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020522591128052068) 2026-02-08T15:38Z 21.5K followers, [--] engagements "Morningstar: since its inception on Nov. [--] [----] through the end of 2025; with the recent surge $GLD returned an average of 10.92% slightly outpacing Vanguard Total Stock Market Index which returned 10.58% annually" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020543150641852463) 2026-02-08T17:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Goldman: The outlook for a large increase in IPO activity has raised concerns among some investors that rising equity supply will cause indigestion in the equity market. History shows that periods of elevated IPO activity typically take place against a backdrop of strong equity market returns but generally precede periods of below-average returns. However we believe this is generally a reflection of correlation rather than causation. In the past the periods of most elevated IPO supply have often coincided with episodes of unsustainable investor exuberance rather than generating supply that" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020558245564457207) 2026-02-08T18:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Also in the Week Ahead is a rundown each week on earnings revenues etc. (mostly from Factset). For example it notes while Q4 earnings beats have been stable at around 76% (down from 83% in Q3) the % of companies beating has been jumping around a bit through Thursday at +7.6% y/y (down -1.5% w/w) still though above the +6.6% in Q3. But despite the weaker beats expectations for Q4 y/y earnings growth increased to +13.0% (from +11.9% the prior week and +8.2% the week before that) according to Factset which now represents a +4.7% increase since the start of the year. It's also on track for a" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020580894923534742) 2026-02-08T19:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "In addition to the Trucking Demand indicator jumping to the highest since Apr '22 the Truck Capacity Indicator or shippers views of available capacity dropped to the least since Mar '22 at [----] from last issues [----] while the Rate Indicator or shippers view on truck rates rose to the highest since Apr '22 at [----] from [----] last issue. In line with the demand increases trucking guru Craig Fuller has been tracking (great follow for all things transportation) BoA says their "proprietary bi-weekly BofA Truckload Demand Indicator for shippers' 0- to 3-month freight demand outlook jumped to" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020595993595846800) 2026-02-08T20:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Each Markets Update provides the 1-Day VIX reading (sub here: Here's what it said Friday: Despite the upcoming weekend with the Mag-7 earnings behind us for now the 1-Day VIX like the VIX and VVIX fell back from the highest since Nov to [----]. The current reading implies a 0.94% move in the SPX next session. https://neilsethi.substack.com https://neilsethi.substack.com Markets Update - 2/6/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day/week with lots of charts https://t.co/lMjVy9ouqR https://t.co/fYflRRQmR2" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020696955131777048) 2026-02-09T03:11Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Ex-US a lighter week highlighted by the fallout from the smashing victory by Japan PM Takaichis LDP party in snap elections inflation data from China to Switzerland to Brazil gross domestic product in the UK China credit data Japan wage data and rate decisions from Russia to Peru may focus investors. The Week Ahead - 2/8/26 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income https://t.co/nObl75msmj https://t.co/8LfHVLfGms The Week Ahead - 2/8/26 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income https://t.co/nObl75msmj" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020699270597259681) 2026-02-09T03:20Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Each Market Update also provides daily positive volume for the Nasdaq and that was even better on Friday at 81.8% the best since Aug 22nd (and 3rd best since Aug 24) after a +2.18% gain in the index. Each Market Update also provides the daily positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) for the NYSE which Friday jumped to 80.8% the best since Nov 21st (and before that Aug). Still I would have liked a higher number given the +2.29% gain in the https://t.co/9dAyPj7WI4 Each Market Update also provides the daily positive volume (percent of total volume that was in" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020799836560183416) 2026-02-09T10:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "San Francisco Fed Pres Daly is not a [----] #FOMC voter but her views are normally closely aligned with the "core" (Powell/Williams/Jefferson). However she seems to be breaking a little from Powell's indication that risks to the labor market and inflation are roughly balanced saying in a Reuters interview Friday "I'm a little more worried about the labor market than I am about inflation" as a "low-firing" labor market can quickly turn to a "some-firing" environment in her opinion while the article says "there's little that makes her feel an inflation spike is in the offing." She also indicated" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020814684451230135) 2026-02-09T10:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "@StockNews690137 That seems the general consensus" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020848621998977033) 2026-02-09T13:13Z 21.5K followers, [--] engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch $ORCL $STM $KR $NVO $HIMS $HOOD $MU $AVGO $AMD $LLY $AAPL Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Oracle Novo Nordisk Hims & Hers Health Kroger and more https://t.co/UX1extrwnv Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Oracle Novo Nordisk Hims & Hers Health Kroger and more https://t.co/UX1extrwnv" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020858391896223863) 2026-02-09T13:52Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Tier1Alpha also notes that while they saw notable selling from CTAs last week "the most important change in positioning on Friday came from vol control funds. These are volatility-scaling strategies widely used across the insurance complex that size exposure based on the higher of 1-month and 3-month realized volatility. "Unfortunately Fridays upside volatility impulse had enough force to push 1-month realized back above 3-month realized flipping vol control from net buyers to sellers. All else being equal we estimate over $31B of net equity selling requirements this week which could" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020885400353386928) 2026-02-09T15:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Jan NY Fed consumer survey (I like better than UMich b/c it follows a consistent panel of [----] h/hs) sees inflation expectations fall back up at the 1-yr horizon while continuing to hold steady at the [--] and 5-yr horizons: -1-yr inflation expectations fell back three tenths (after increasing two tenths in Dec) to 3.1% down from the joint highest (with Sept) since the 3.6% in Apr which was the highest since Oct [--] -3-yr unchanged for an eighth month at 3.0% (down from 3.2% in Apr the highest since July 2022) -5-yr unchanged for a sixth month at a joint record high of 3.0% (which has been hit" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020898898772943333) 2026-02-09T16:33Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Major US equity indices opened lower chopped for 30mins then headed higher peaking at noon (ex-DJIA which traded flat all day). They wouldn't soften much and ended solidly higher led by the Nasdaq +0.9%. Then RUT +0.7% SPX +0.5% while DJIA lagged ending little changed" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020968259932344798) 2026-02-09T21:09Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Markets Update - 2/9/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2926 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2926" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020996990679581030) 2026-02-09T23:03Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "As part of each Markets Update there's a look at the day ahead (sub here to get these in your inbox post-US close each day): Tuesday a heavier day for US economic data. Well get retail sales the Employment Cost Index for Q4 Dec import prices NFIB small business optimism and the ADP weekly employment report. Fed speakers will continue with new [----] voters regional bank presidents Hammack and Logan who we havent heard from recently. Hammack has been the most hawkish Fed member and Logan has been close so it will be interesting to see if they see any scope for rate cuts in [----] (both said" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021177335089639584) 2026-02-10T11:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "Goldman sees an "uptick in volumes" from discretionary buybacks into last week's selloff in many names which along with the buyback window opening further boosted buybacks 40% w/w: With the extreme market selloffs mid-week last week corresponding with the open window period for corporates we saw an uptick in volumes last week finishing 1.7x vs [----] YTD ADTV and 1.1x vs [----] YTD ADTV. That is approx. 40% higher vs the previous week. In terms of open window periods we estimate 65% in open window now with 75% in open window by the end of the week. Of the largest historical repurchasers we will" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021203747813437778) 2026-02-10T12:45Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch $TSM $DD $SPGI $CVS $RACE $KO $ $UPWK $ON $CHGG $CRDO $GOOGL $AAPL $HOG $MAR $UA $RGNX $FISV $SPOT $AZN $BP $BCS $BABA $GTM Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Coca-Cola CVS Health Ferrari Taiwan Semi and more https://t.co/cyQ2O9RSdu Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Coca-Cola CVS Health Ferrari Taiwan Semi and more https://t.co/cyQ2O9RSdu" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021220012858515723) 2026-02-10T13:49Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "As We Approach The Open. 2/10/26 Quick roundup of markets ahead of the cash opening of US equities As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading little changed not seeing such movement after a weaker-than-expected retail sales report which showed headline sales coming in flat vs a +0.4% m/m gain expected while the important control group number (which feeds into GDP) came in at -0.1% (vs the same expected gain) and Nov was revised down two tenths. Expectations for FOMC rate cuts edged higher. Weve gotten most of the US economic data at this point but still have a 3-yr Treasury" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021223041942913189) 2026-02-10T14:01Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Retail Sales - December [----] Headline core and control group retail sales all come in much weaker than expected with y/y the least since [----]. https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/retail-sales-december *US DEC. RETAIL SALES UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4% - BBG *US DEC. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTO UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4% *US DEC. RETAIL SALES EX AUTOS GAS UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4% https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/retail-sales-december *US DEC. RETAIL SALES UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4% - BBG *US DEC. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTO UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4% *US DEC. RETAIL SALES EX AUTOS GAS UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021235970159341713) 2026-02-10T14:53Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "CNBC: $KO Shares of Coca-Cola down -2.1% the most since Oct (and 2nd most since April) after missing revenue estimates for the first time in [--] years. And it wasn't a small miss at -2% the largest since July 2014()" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021253439116792313) 2026-02-10T16:02Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements "MarketWatch: Vanda Research says retail is buying the dip in software and pretty aggressively too. $IGV the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF which is depicted in the Vanda chart was trading mostly higher after sinking on Wednesday even as rolling 1-month purchases shot higher (chart). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021965244709388524 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021965244709388524" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021965244709388524) 2026-02-12T15:10Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "CNBC notes the drop in the Dow Transport Index is due to large trucking firms becoming the latest AI casualty: A new tool called SemiCab from AI company Algorhythm Holdings has made trucking companies the latest victim of the markets AI jitters adding to the historic sell-off in software stocks and real estate companies. Theres an emerging debate around open-source automation agents such as Molt Bot that offer increased potential to automate routine back-office tasks and help equalize the technology playing field for smaller operators said Baird analyst Daniel Moore in a note. MarketWatch:" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022052136281100564) 2026-02-12T20:56Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "$TLT the 20+ year Treasury ETF had its best day since Oct 10th" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022075618041684301) 2026-02-12T22:29Z 21.6K followers, 10.1K engagements "From last night's Update we've seen a notable shift in [----] #FOMC rate expectations going from +17bps of net tightening from YE [----] on Monday (following the strong ISM Mfg survey) to -9bps of loosening Wed after ADP. Markets Update - 2/4/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/soax1FgacU https://t.co/gJEibiPwZu Markets Update - 2/4/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/soax1FgacU https://t.co/gJEibiPwZu" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019372934335459333) 2026-02-05T11:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Drilling down on CTA flows in the US indices BoA sees them as vulnerable: CTA equity positioning remains stretched with risk skewed toward unwind rather than extension as the S&P [---] and NASDAQ100 continue to trade rangebound near alltime highs. While shorterterm trend followers have likely trimmed exposure in response to this choppy price action medium and longerterm CTAs remain meaningfully long leaving positioning vulnerable to drawdowndriven derisking. Last weeks pullback and factor rotation tested that resolve with the most aggressive riskmanaged CTAs potentially beginning to unwind" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020865268134670441) 2026-02-09T14:20Z 21.6K followers, 11.3K engagements "While #FOMC rate cut bets from the CME FedWatch tool were little changed in the half hour following NFP they deteriorated from there with March effectively now priced out for the first time but still more cuts than the recent low Jan 22nd (after the 3Q GDP final revision). These are part of each Markets Update (sub here to get these in your inbox post-US close each day): No cut is expected under Powell with March now just at 6% the least weve seen (down from 20% Tues 51% Jan 6th) April is at 22% also a new low (down from 41% Tues and from 63% Jan 6th) with the first cut in June which will be" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021924749807645000) 2026-02-12T12:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "$AAPL -5% Thurs worst day since April after new FTC scrutiny and reports of delays in its long-planned upgrade to the Siri virtual assistant potentially pushing back the release of several highly anticipated functions" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022067302351667673) 2026-02-12T21:56Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Markets Update - 2/12/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of data and charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21226 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21226" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022121132883911164) 2026-02-13T01:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "As noted previously each market update contains a breakdown of the SPX by largest market cap those over 3% and those under 3% (sub here and it will hit your inbox every night: Tonight was notable with the most SPX components down more than 3% since at least Sept: Stock-by-stock flag from @finviz_com consistent in looking pretty ugly with lots of red much of it the bright kind (larger losses). Exceptions were Utilities and most of Staples along with some other pockets here and there (aircraft/defense some healthcare and consumer names). Just two of the largest [--] SPX components were higher" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022149874788049210) 2026-02-13T03:24Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen more than 12% in [----] in contrast the S&P [---] is down -0.2% for the year while the technology-heavy Nasdaq [---] gauge has lost around -2% with one of the largest divergences on Thursday when Asian stocks gained +0.75% while the SPX lost around -1.6%. That has pushed correlations between Asian and US equities based on weekly returns to [----] as of this morning the weakest level since June [----] Bloomberg-compiled data show. Some of the scares in the US are also good news in Asia particularly when thinking about what infrastructure is really needed to harness" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022277227971334199) 2026-02-13T11:50Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "BoA's Hartnett (Flow Show) repeats call for small-caps: US large-cap growth to small-cap value: elitism to populism capitalism to socialism services to manufacturing globalization to isolationism better trends for small cap on Main St not large cap on Wall St plus cost of AI arms race (hyperscaler debt issuance $170bn past [--] months vs. $30bn yearly issuance 20-24 hyperscaler spreads rising - Chart 14) plus US admin to cap 30-year yields at 5%. big secular turning point for small cap value vs large cap growth stocks (Chart 11): https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022294434826563964" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022294434826563964) 2026-02-13T12:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "This will continue to shift as the day progresses (why I do an end-of-day snapshot in the Markets Update) but initial move is to slightly more #FOMC cuts but still none under Powell (April just 28% well below the lows of the year). Second cut priced for Sept. Overall CME's Fedwatch tool has 61bps priced (from [--] Thurs) with 77% chance of two cuts 50% chance of three. BREAKING: CORE CPI RISES 0.3% HEADLINE RISES JUST 0.2% Economists had expected a 0.3% MoM increase in core. https://t.co/jMz0mVzszC BREAKING: CORE CPI RISES 0.3% HEADLINE RISES JUST 0.2% Economists had expected a 0.3% MoM" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022305264536350847) 2026-02-13T13:42Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch. $ROKU $EXPE $STLD $CLF $CENX $AA $WYNN $AMAT $ABNB $RIVN $BROS $DKNG $PINS $MRNA $WEN $STZ $CART Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: DraftKings Applied Materials Roku Rivian Automotive and more https://t.co/3QUHYwQPWW Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: DraftKings Applied Materials Roku Rivian Automotive and more https://t.co/3QUHYwQPWW" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022307365333209442) 2026-02-13T13:50Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "MarketWatch: The Nasdaq has fallen -1.9% so far this week and is on track for what would be its fifth-straight week in the red. According to Dow Jones Market Data this would be the tech-heavy index's longest losing streak since May [--] [----] when the index snapped a seven-week losing streak. log chart https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022335814621909274 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022335814621909274" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022335814621909274) 2026-02-13T15:43Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Wall St reactions to CPI. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-12/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates-srnd=homepage-americas&sref=E10pTi1i https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-12/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates-srnd=homepage-americas&sref=E10pTi1i" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022339733137850438) 2026-02-13T15:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "AAII bulls drop to lows and bears rise to highs of the year: AAII bulls (those who see higher stock prices in [--] mths blue line) fell back to 38.5% the lows of the year from 39.7% the prior week although remaining above the long-term historic average of 37.5% for a 7th week (and the 10th week in [--] (with the other week 37.44). Bulls also remained (just) above the level of the bears (who see lower stock prices in [--] mths red line) for an 11th week the longest streak since [----] but those rose to 38.1% the highs of the year from 29.0% up further from the 27.0% five weeks ago which was the least" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022352568605905142) 2026-02-13T16:50Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "CNBC: Video game makers are the latest AI casualty after the rollout of Googles Project Genie an interactive AI world generator capable of responding to real-time user interaction which has sparked concerns about the demand for traditional gaming businesses and digital experiences platforms. Big videogame stocks such as Take-Two Interactive Roblox Unity Software and Applovin have been hit for losses between -6% and -16% since Wednesday's close even though the tool remains in early stages and is being rolled out to Google AI Ultra subscribers in the U.S. $TTWO $RBLX $U $APP" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022410946539327622) 2026-02-13T20:41Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "For the week all were lower. They started off well up as of Tues' close before giving that back Wed. Thurs was the real problem with all four dropping solidly into negative territory unable to recover Fri. RUT did the least bad -0.9% DJIA -1.2% SPX -1.4% Nasdaq -2.1%. US equity indices opened with modest gains following the cool CPI led by the RUT which shot higher at one point +2% before falling off to end +1.2%. Large caps though struggled not getting any higher than +0.5% and ending little changed. https://t.co/8oEYBMlmKD US equity indices opened with modest gains following the cool CPI" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022422741329289380) 2026-02-13T21:28Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Goldman's Oppenheimer: Tariffs are still higher than before Liberation Day and their impact is inflationary; the Fed is now less likely to cut rates; the average event-driven bear market profile suggests that there may be limited upside for a long time after the rally; and valuations and market concentration concerns remain firmly in place. History is also not on the side of a further rally. Looking back at [--] other 20% drawdowns since [----] the median path from here is gradually lower for the next full year (chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923740297130868908) 2025-05-17T14:00Z 21.6K followers, 29.7K engagements "ZeroHedge: Noteworthy puke in skew. This is classical upside panic behavior where people start abandoning protection as "downside hedges only cost money bro"" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983002006789751081) 2025-10-28T02:44Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Goldman: Coming into earnings this week put-call skew in the Mag7 complex inverted for the first time since December of last year (i.e. implied volatility of callstraded over puts). This phenomenon has only happened a handful of times. The move implies investors are overwhelmingly positioned for continued upside. Historically such low skew readings have tended to coincide with short-term consolidation or reversals as optimism peaks (see chart / data)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1984591254265741801) 2025-11-01T12:00Z 21.6K followers, 103.9K engagements "I'm familiar with a number of different cycles (but certainly no expert) but I had never heard of the "Benner Cycle". From BoA's technician Paul Ciana: Sam Benner was a farmer and commodity enthusiast in the 1800s. He founded the Benner Cycle where he described a pattern of long- medium- and short-term cycles. There is a 54-year cycle and a 27-year cycle each with "mini-cycles". -The 54-year cycle includes recurring 20- 16- and 18-year cycles. We are presently in a 16-year cycle from 2019-2035. -The 27- year cycle includes recurring 7- 9- and 11-year cycles. We are presently in a 9-year cycle" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2004884974143787400) 2025-12-27T12:00Z 21.6K followers, 18.8K engagements "$ITA the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF adding another +1.9% after hitting an ATH on Friday. It's up over 12% the past month" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2008266075541057984) 2026-01-05T19:55Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $INTC $CSX $CLX $AA $ISRG $COF Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Intel Clorox Capital One and more https://t.co/czoxmmhZFo Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Intel Clorox Capital One and more https://t.co/czoxmmhZFo" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2014474882117931418) 2026-01-22T23:06Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "$INTC Intel -17% worst day since Aug '24" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2014817841489338873) 2026-01-23T21:49Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "$TXN It's not just AI that's fueling the semiconductor trade today as the "grandpa" of the chip industry Texas Instruments the leading maker of analog chips (used in real world applications such as cars household and industrial equipment etc. and for that reason also considered an economic bellwether) gave a surprisingly robust forecast as customers have finally worked through an inventory glut and are seeing a rebound in their own sales. Revenue will be $4.32 billion to $4.68 billion in the first quarter the company said in a statement Tuesday. The midpoint of that range exceeded the average" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2016551206122901899) 2026-01-28T16:37Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "The revamped BofA Bull & Bear Indicator back up to [---] for the second time in three weeks the highest since Feb [--] an extreme bullish level back over the contrarian sell signal level which "is still in operation. The move was on strong global stock index breadth long-only bull positioning (e.g. record low 3.2% FMS cash level) and robust credit market technicals which offset global equity outflows". As a reminder Hartnett noted three weeks ago that past [--] years average 3-month return when B&B Indicator [---] ACWI flat S&P500 - 1%. All six of the components remain either Bullish or V Bullish." [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017218865814761507) 2026-01-30T12:50Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Ed Yardeni notes that the trend of solid consumer spending despite slowing incomes may be due to the increasing number of Baby Boomer retirements who feed spending through savings/retirement assets: We would attribute that toretiredBaby Boomers no longer earning labor income. Our thesis explains how consumer spending remains strong despite the slowing in incomes as the Baby Boomers dip into their retirement funds. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017681790543270183 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017681790543270183" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017681790543270183) 2026-01-31T19:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "$SNDK SanDisk led the SPX for the fourth time this year +15% taking it's YTD gains to. wait for it. 183%. It started the year at a $34bn market cap. It's now pushing $100bm" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2018440780906447061) 2026-02-02T21:45Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "MarketWatch: "Over the last few months the market has clearly shifted from the every tech stock is a winner mindset to something far more brutal: a true winners and losers landscape" Jim Reid global head of macroeconomic research at Deutsche Bank said in a Wednesday client note. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019108441042915375 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019108441042915375" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019108441042915375) 2026-02-04T17:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "While software remains in the dumps with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF $IGV on pace for its seventh straight day of losses hair loss treatments are apparently very much in demand with Veradermics $MANE (great tricker) who is developing a pill for the condition up 135% from its IPO pricing of $17 despite the company having no revenue. It opened trade at $32 moving to $40 during today's session. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019138899507909063 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019138899507909063" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019138899507909063) 2026-02-04T20:00Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "While off the lows $MTUM the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF is still down -3.3% its worst drop since April" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019142885321670914) 2026-02-04T20:15Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "$SNDK SanDisk down -16% today. I believe @Chartfest1 would confirm someone needs to call the Market Police. $MU -9.6% as well" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019171509198004598) 2026-02-04T22:09Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "I noted last night that we had Wed the most SPX components up 3% or more this year despite the down day in the index (with though just [--] of them $100bn in market cap) and the excellent @dailychartbook nightly email had this from great follow @SubuTrade: S&P [---] fell today but more than 70% of its stocks went Up. This bullish breadth divergence has only happened [--] times before. [--] of those instances led to a $SPX rally 3-4 days later. Some notable stats from the Markets Update (https://t.co/soax1FfCnm) as despite the down day in the SPX we had the most components up 3% or more this year (120)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019369159918756198) 2026-02-05T11:15Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Tier1Alpha: Yesterday our CTA model flashed the largest single-day sell signal since March of last year indicating over $11b in net deleveraging. The concern with CTA flows is that once they start selling positioning can deteriorate rapidly with each subsequent decline which risks pulling markets into a selling begets even more selling scenario that has been a key feature of many mechanical crashes in the past. Although not every break in CTA positioning falls victim to this death spiral of deleveraging we view this as a clear warning sign that the structural background is deteriorating" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019745891750470141) 2026-02-06T12:12Z 21.6K followers, 20.5K engagements "$STLA Milan-listed shares in car maker Stellantis maker of Chryslers Dodges and Jeeps are now back to where they were in the Covid-crash down -23% its largest slide ever after announcing a wide-ranging business reset costing $26 billion" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019812078014332974) 2026-02-06T16:35Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "As always a nice collection of charts/links from @TheChartReport. Thought an article linked from @AlmanacTrader was particularly interesting (click through for the link). There's a common refrain that "new Fed chairs are tested by the market." Jeff ran the numbers and the results showed it's not as bad as the refrain sounds. As Jeff notes the 3-month period seems the most troublesome as of the eight new Fed chairs since [----] half saw negative SPX returns through that period (this also happens to be the period selected by BoA's Hartnett in his post on this subject) compared with just around a" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020129371541967047) 2026-02-07T13:35Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Vanguard on why Vanguard's $VOO is gathering assets at $SPY's expense from the largest money managers: "SPY was launched as a unit investment trust which prohibits its managers from engaging in some basic operations available to other ETFs. For example the managers of SPY cannot reinvest dividends use derivatives to equitize cash or lend securities which provides the fund with a small amount of additional income. Though these practices do carry some risk its marginal. Morningstar analysts see a clear albeit small advantage for investors who choose VOO over SPY owing to its structural" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020611094751093138) 2026-02-08T21:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Tier1Alpha updates on gamma and sees a similar profile: North of the [----] strike we would expect realized volatility to begin to decline as hedging flows become less reflexive. That said the risk remains heavily skewed to the downside as any collapse in momentum will likely repeat the violent convexity we saw last week as dealer hedging flows amplify the underlying move. From the Week Ahead sent out to subscribers (https://t.co/nObl75lUwL) Sunday: BoA on SPX gamma: SPX dealer gamma was tepid this week averaging long +$3.9bn compared to the more material +$8.4bn averaged during January. As a" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020869057994510544) 2026-02-09T14:35Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements ""Notional short selling across single stocks last week was the biggest on record in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. data going back to [----] the banks prime brokerage team said in a client note. Short sales outpaced long buys by a magnitude of two-to-one. "Overall hedge funds net sold US equities for a fourth week and at the heaviest rate since the so-called Liberation Day in early April. . "Information technology was the most heavily sold sector posting the second-largest dollar outflows in the past five years the Goldman team said. Software dominated the retreat accounting for about 75% of net" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020942867540087157) 2026-02-09T19:28Z 21.6K followers, 11K engagements "First it was rare earths then it was power now it's once abundant memory chips that are the AI bottleneck pressuring device/chip makers and seeing memory prices shoot higher: "Shares of Qualcomm Inc. fell more than 8% last Thursday after the smartphone processor maker signaled memory constraints will limit phone production. Nintendo slid the most in [--] months in Tokyo the day after it warned of margin pressure from the shortages. "PC makers are among those hit the hardest. Both Lenovo Group Ltd. and Dell Technologies Inc. have dropped over 25% from their respective peaks in October. Worries" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021207271204847921) 2026-02-10T12:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Rubner: February seasonality is best viewed as a reflection of the mechanical shift in demand. Institutional client behavior reflects this shift as well. Institutional clients at Citadel Securities continue to use options as the primary vehicle to position into upcoming catalysts most notably earnings either to add targeted length into specific reports or to selectively hedge names and sectors where outcomes may be more binary. Tenors remain very near dated underscoring the tactical nature of this positioning. The coming weeks are defined by a high density of macro earnings and policy" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021227655626887375) 2026-02-10T14:20Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Every night the Market Update contains the end-of-day snapshot of current #FOMC rate pricing from the CME's Fedwatch tool. You can sub here and it will be in your inbox each night: As of now we're seeing modest changes after the weak retail sales report adding +3bps of cuts to [----] to take it to 60bps (so two cuts plus around 44% chance of a third cut). First cut remains priced for June 76% but April is up to 42% while the second is in Sept 65%. https://neilsethi.substack.com/ Retail Sales - December [----] Headline core and control group retail sales all come in much weaker than expected with" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021243115680494019) 2026-02-10T15:21Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "BoA (Subramanian): So far in 4Q reporting season our three-month guidance ratio (# of above- vs. below-consensus quarterly or annual EPS guides) is tracking 1.0x. weaker than 2Q-3Q but still strong considering seasonality (avg. ratio in January-February is 0.6x)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021257854582435985) 2026-02-10T16:20Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Goldman: We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.4% in January but we see the risks as skewed to a decline: the bar for rounding down to 4.3% is not high from an unrounded 4.38% in December and the January unemployment rate appears to suffer from modestly negative residual seasonalitythe unrounded unemployment rate has declined in each of the last three Januarys. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.35% month-over-month in January reflecting positive calendar effects. The BLS's preliminary estimate of the benchmark payrolls revision indicated that cumulative payroll" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021314567003902115) 2026-02-10T20:05Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "I mentioned in the previews last night and this morning that I was interested in hearing from Cleveland Fed President Hammack who rotated onto the #FOMC panel this year (and notably is an every-other-year voter in contrast with most regional bank presidents who are every three years (other than NY and Chicago)) and has been the most hawkish member to see if she provided any scope for rate cuts and based on her speech today to the Ohio Bankers League in Columbus OH (no I didn't go) it looks like she will be a thorn in the new Fed chair's side. Hammack unlike most everyone else at the Fed says" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021326097686855976) 2026-02-10T20:51Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Major US equity indices opened little changed diverging intra-session but all fell back in the afternoon ending at or near the lows of the session w/a drop last 15mins (systematics). Just the DJIA eked out a gain +0.1%. Nasdaq led decliners -0.6% RUT and SPX were -0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021330721835475186) 2026-02-10T21:09Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $HOOD $LUFT $F $FRSH $MAT $HNGE $KLAV $NET $GILD Stocks making the biggest moves in after hours: Robinhood Lyft Ford Motor Mattel & more https://t.co/hlY1OY7SUf Stocks making the biggest moves in after hours: Robinhood Lyft Ford Motor Mattel & more https://t.co/hlY1OY7SUf" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021358870929736098) 2026-02-10T23:01Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Markets Update - 2/10/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21026 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21026" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021364461626642796) 2026-02-10T23:23Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Employer payrolls come in 2x expectations at 130k and unemployment rate declines a tenth to 4.3% (no change expected). Stocks taking it in stride SPX +0.5%. Bonds selling off a little with 10yr yield +5bps to 4.0% but just getting back yesterday's decline #FOMC rate cut bets little changed with 59bps of cuts expected this year (-1bps from Tues). First cut remains in June (76%) second in Sept (63%) 43% chance of a third. US hiring beat forecasts in January and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell suggesting the labor market continued to stabilize at the start of the year." [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021583741039067520) 2026-02-11T13:54Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Lots of pre-market company news from CNBC and BBG. $MRNA $HUM $GNRC $AVTR $HOOD $LUFT $F $FRSH $MAT $HNGE $KLAV $NET $GILD $Z $KHC $UPST $TDC $LSCC $ALAB $TMUS $SHOP $WBD $NFLX $NKE $CVX $DPZ $HLT $TTE Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Lyft Moderna Cloudflare Ford Zillow Group and more https://t.co/9jrrWik1yD Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Lyft Moderna Cloudflare Ford Zillow Group and more https://t.co/9jrrWik1yD" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021586658336944476) 2026-02-11T14:06Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "As We Approach The Open. 2/11/26 Quick roundup of markets ahead of the cash opening of US equities As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading solidly higher taking in stride a very strong Nonfarm Payrolls report which showed employers added 130k jobs double expectations with broader gains than in previous months and the household survey saw the unemployment rate decline a tenth to 4.3% (no change was expected). Bond yields are up modestly while Fed rate cut bets are little changed. Weve gotten most of the US economic data at this point outside of EIA petroleum inventories but" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021590423257375196) 2026-02-11T14:21Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "I buried the lead here a little so wanted to sure I highlighted it: A faction of #FOMC voters (seems just a couple/few for now) are saying no rate cuts are needed unless the labor market deteriorates (even if inflation comes down to 2%). For now this seems to include just Hammack and Logan but Barr and even Kashkari could perhaps be among them as well giving even more sway to the "core" swing voters (Powell/Williams/Jefferson/Cook). I mentioned in the preview for Tues that Dallas Fed Pres Logan was (along with Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack) a speaker I was interested in hearing from as 1) we" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021620855785033951) 2026-02-11T16:22Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Employment Situation (NFP) - Jan [--] A "blowout" report with payrolls 2x expectations and households +528k dropping unemployment rate with total payroll income growing the most since Feb '24 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/employment-situation-nfp-jan-26 Employer payrolls come in 2x expectations at 130k and unemployment rate declines a tenth to 4.3% (no change expected). Stocks taking it in stride SPX +0.5%. Bonds selling off a little with 10yr yield +5bps to 4.0% but just getting back yesterday's decline #FOMC rate cut bets https://t.co/9ZMVPqYym8" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021633714019873177) 2026-02-11T17:13Z 21.6K followers, 12.5K engagements "MarketWatch: State Street's investor risk appetite measure* fell to zero or neutral by the end of January even as investors' allocation to equities are at the highest since the great financial crisis nearly [--] year ago. "January was notable for a strong pick-up in institutional risk exposure towards mid-month but the combination of uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and liquidity concerns across certain markets drove a more moderate risk stance as we approached the end of the month" said State Street in an email shared with MarketWatch. "That said overall allocation exposure to" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021655474341617753) 2026-02-11T18:40Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "If you grabbed the falling knife you only had a short window before the selling resumed in the $IGV software ETF down -2.7% today" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021689927369396447) 2026-02-11T20:56Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $CSCO $MCD $ROL $FSLY $APP $PAYC Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cisco Systems McDonald's AppLovin and more https://t.co/HgbyLYS2wW Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cisco Systems McDonald's AppLovin and more https://t.co/HgbyLYS2wW" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021726131624305043) 2026-02-11T23:20Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Markets Update - 2/11/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21126 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21126" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021728897000243409) 2026-02-11T23:31Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements ""supply of existing homes at the current sales rate start the year at [---] the highest for any January since [----] up from [---] a year earlier." charts from Calculated Risk substack: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-5f1 Existing Home Sales - Jan [----] Existing home sales see largest drop in four years to near the lowest sales pace since [----] likely impacted by Jan storms. https://t.co/3CEv5LT3sN https://t.co/KTLme1Ax0T https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-5f1 Existing Home Sales - Jan [----] Existing home sales see largest" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022000247153848464) 2026-02-12T17:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Good call from @C_Barraud looking for downside surprise. Jan [----] Existing home sales see largest drop in four years to near the lowest sales pace since [----] likely impacted by Jan storms. https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/existing-home-sales-jan-2026 U.S. Existing Home Sales #Preview After reviewing additional local/regional data and industry feedback I still expect a downside surprise ⚠vs. consensus (4.15Me SAAR). ➡ Key headwinds: Higher mortgage rates Stretched affordability January weather disruptions https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/existing-home-sales-jan-2026 U.S. Existing Home Sales" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022001364889739312) 2026-02-12T17:34Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/trucking-and-logistics-stocks-tumble-on-release-of-ai-freight-scaling-tool.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/trucking-and-logistics-stocks-tumble-on-release-of-ai-freight-scaling-tool.html" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022052138759979069) 2026-02-12T20:56Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements "And we're seeing continued weakness in real-estate servicing companies. The 2-day drop in $CBRE rivals that in March [----]. CNBC notes the drop in the Dow Transport Index is due to large trucking firms becoming the latest AI casualty: A new tool called SemiCab from AI company Algorhythm Holdings has made trucking companies the latest victim of the markets AI jitters adding to the historic sell-off https://t.co/1mtj89CzKS CNBC notes the drop in the Dow Transport Index is due to large trucking firms becoming the latest AI casualty: A new tool called SemiCab from AI company Algorhythm Holdings" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022053456912298439) 2026-02-12T21:01Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/cisco-gives-strong-sales-forecast-in-latest-sign-of-ai-inroadssref=E10pTi1i https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/cisco-gives-strong-sales-forecast-in-latest-sign-of-ai-inroadssref=E10pTi1i" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022056574760759487) 2026-02-12T21:13Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Like Wed US equity indices opened higher and were quickly lower but Thurs the losses were deeper and broader and instead of bouncing indices traded flat to finish at or near the lows all down at least -1% w/Nasdaq & RUT -2%" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022057648150237692) 2026-02-12T21:18Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $AMAT $ABNB $TOST $RIVN $BROS $CART $DKNG $PINS $COIN $ANET $BIO $FROG Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Rivian Applied Materials Airbnb Pinterest DraftKings & more https://t.co/vgbrq7h8GC Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Rivian Applied Materials Airbnb Pinterest DraftKings & more https://t.co/vgbrq7h8GC" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022087343558283331) 2026-02-12T23:16Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "@fit_businessman So momentum I don't think matters but you're right if volatility rises it will cause some selling on its own (why BoA models CTA selling in even a big up tape). But we don't get the "real" selling unless we see a big drop" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2017678485502804416) 2026-01-31T19:16Z 21.6K followers, [--] engagements "Yardeni: The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has jumped well above zero in recent days to [----] (chart blue line). The Fed eased late last year because the labor market looked weak. But recent unemployment insurance claims data suggest that the employment situation might be improving. (Friday's employment report has been delayed because of the federal government shutdown.) The CESI suggests that the 10-year Treasury bond yield is likely to move higher in the coming days. Yardeni: We are still targeting the S&P [---] at [----] by the end of this year and [-----] by the end of the decade. The" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2019025649533423894) 2026-02-04T12:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "The Week Ahead - 2/8/26 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/the-week-ahead-2826 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/the-week-ahead-2826" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020688275502256532) 2026-02-09T02:36Z 21.6K followers, 34K engagements "BoA (Subramanian): Layoff mentions in transcripts have shown only a minor uptick this quarter with employment service companies citing little evidence of AI materially weakening the labor market so far" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020825002560643470) 2026-02-09T11:40Z 21.6K followers, 13.6K engagements "JPM trading desk thoughts on NFP: Wow. This is the type of print that the market had been looking forward to once we started to see the economic data inflect higher toward the end of last year. Yesterdays Retail Sales looks like a bad fat finger. There are a ton of superlatives that could be said about todays print but the keys are: This print is supportive to risk assets; The Cyclical Rally / Reflation / Global Reboot trade is back on; If we see AI / TMT / Mag7 reclaim its spot atop the leaderboard then US outperformance vs. ROW should be material; This refocused inflation as the primary" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021902100288979324) 2026-02-12T11:00Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Nomura's McElligott: In the US Equities / Vol -space Dispersion of epic proportions remains the theme YTD This is on account of . profound thematic and factor-rebalancing (Value over Growth Cyclicals over Seculars Defensives / Low Beta / Bond Proxies over Vol) and sector bifurcation (previously left-for-dead Energy / Mats / Staples / Industrials / REITS / Utes as suddenly the S&Ps best sectors YTD while prior multi-year AI / Mag7 leadership from Comm Svc and Info Tech DRAG / LAG S&P broad Index returns YTD) hence realized Correlation remains utterly crushed (1m rCorr [---] 3m rCorr 9.3)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021917210860483058) 2026-02-12T12:00Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "BTW I heard @lisaabramowicz1 mention it on Surveillance yesterday but not many others. Citi nailed the headline NFP number. Congrats. Note they still see three #FOMC cuts this year. #NFP PREVIEW: January US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 68000; Unemployment Rate Seen at 4.4% Take A Look At What The Top Economists Are Forecasting In Today's US Jobs Report $USDJPY $DXY https://t.co/5vUhGiS0Wv #NFP PREVIEW: January US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 68000; Unemployment Rate Seen at 4.4% Take A Look At What The Top Economists Are Forecasting In Today's US Jobs Report $USDJPY $DXY" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021939270177718459) 2026-02-12T13:27Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "McElligott continues: beyond the singles vs singles dynamic in the performance spread charts.look at the Average S&P500 Stock (Absolute) Move vs the the Index Absolute Move Just absolutely wild What is it showing you That over the past [--] month (Jan [--] th through Feb 10th) the SPX is unch at 0.0%but get this.the average S&P [---] stock saw an ABSOLUTE MOVE of 10.8% over the same window I initially called BS toobut look at the top movers even within the LARGEST [--] SPX STOCKS since mid Jan () Essentially were seeing stunningly large and divergent moves across Single-Name Equities and their Vol but" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021974550288757163) 2026-02-12T15:47Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "BBG: $NDX is on track for its 5th -1% or greater decline in the past [--] sessions" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022015346971136476) 2026-02-12T18:30Z 21.6K followers, 11.2K engagements "$CSCO -12.3% worst day since May '22 despite raising sales guidance above expectations after margin forecast came in light. No mercy" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022056572483190981) 2026-02-12T21:13Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "$XLF SPX Financials Sector ETF down -3.5% last two sessions worst since April" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022062903277629632) 2026-02-12T21:38Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Goldman bumps their Jan core PCE expectation (subject to PPI which we won't get until the end of the month) a tenth to 0.40% m/m "partly because the electronics componentswhich saw large increasesreceive more weight in PCE than CPI while the used cars componentwhich saw a large declinereceives less weight in PCE than CPI." A 0.40% increase in core PCE would correspond to a year-over-year rate of +3.05%. Additionally we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.30% in January or increased 2.81% from a year earlier. We estimate that market-based core PCE rose 0.35% in January. CPI -" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022400887365284133) 2026-02-13T20:02Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Worst week for the SPX since Nov. For the week all were lower. They started off well up as of Tues' close before giving that back Wed. Thurs was the real problem with all four dropping solidly into negative territory unable to recover Fri. RUT did the least bad -0.9% DJIA -1.2% SPX -1.4% Nasdaq -2.1%. https://t.co/dDAXuXX98g For the week all were lower. They started off well up as of Tues' close before giving that back Wed. Thurs was the real problem with all four dropping solidly into negative territory unable to recover Fri. RUT did the least bad -0.9% DJIA -1.2% SPX -1.4% Nasdaq -2.1%." [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022422800229871636) 2026-02-13T21:29Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "$XLU SPX Utilities ETF up +6.95% the past four sessions. That's the best since Apr 2020()" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022426907586015530) 2026-02-13T21:45Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Markets Update - 2/13/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21326 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21326" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022457011472904352) 2026-02-13T23:45Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "MarketWatch: $DJT The Dow Jones Transportation Index is down -5.7% its worst day since April with all [--] components trading lower and its three worst-performing components all on track for their worst one-day declines on record. Those three components C.H. Robinson Worldwide Landstar System and Expeditors International of Washington all freight and logistics names. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022005297527546142 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022005297527546142" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022005297527546142) 2026-02-12T17:50Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "Tier1Alpha says as we approach CPI that we might see a more volatile move than we otherwise would as "SPX dealers have shifted back negative gamma territory which means the conditions for higher volatility are back in place. In this environment market makers with negative gamma exposure will need to sell index futures into weakness and buy futures into strength to stay as directionally neutral as possible. Since these hedging flows align with the underlying trend they can exacerbate price swings and ultimately drive volatility higher." They note the lower part of their trading range (which" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022287138067505455) 2026-02-13T12:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "BoA: Consumers will soon benefit from OBBBA stimulus to the tune of $135-140bn (0.6% of disposable income). Last years shutdown should also boost 1Q growth by 0.5-1pp. All this sets the stage for front-loaded GDP growth in [----]. But it appears that consensus forecasts are not accounting for these factors: they are almost flat across the four quarters of this year https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020833810414280825 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020833810414280825" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2020833810414280825) 2026-02-09T12:15Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "MarketWatch: Michael Kramer at Mott Capital says the rally in $XLB the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR exchange traded fund which now sits at a record high on optimism on data center construction metals shortages and heightened investor demand for gold and silver has gotten "extremely overextended on technical grounds." It is "now showing a weekly RSI relative strength index of [--] and is trading above its upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. Both are classic signs of an overbought condition suggesting the sector may be stretched in the near term" says Kramer." [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2021992445127401736) 2026-02-12T16:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements "As might be expected breadth according to CME Cash Indices (uses futures) saw one of the worst days of the year so far with [--] of [--] sectors higher (still just the 6th day this year with less than six higher but half have come in the past week) in the three big dividend payers on the back of falling rates (Utilities Staples and RE the first two up over 1% (Staples for a second session)). On the other side seven sectors down more than -1% (from two Wed) led by Tech Energy and Financials all down -2% or more. Financials was after finishing last Wed -1.5%. So just two sectors (RE & Health Care)" [X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/2022064193831117008) 2026-02-12T21:44Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@neilksethi Neil Sethi
US equity markets are experiencing a mix of positive and negative trends, with strong earnings reports from major companies such as banks and tech firms, but also concerns about volatility and potential economic uncertainty. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with some investors expecting a cut as early as October. Despite some bearish sentiments, many strategists remain constructive on the market, citing strengthening corporate fundamentals and a historically strong November.
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Mentions: [--] #
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- [--] Month [---] +21%
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- [--] Year [-----] +12%
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance 70.51% stocks 26.5% technology brands 13.25% cryptocurrencies 8.97% exchanges #772 automotive brands 4.7% countries 4.27% financial services #2598 currencies 2.56% social networks 1.71%
Social topic influence stocks #1979, spx #28, in the 12.39%, ai 8.97%, commodities #82, the most 8.55%, market cap #179, $100bn 6.41%, fomc #49, market #4498
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @finvizcom @zegoodtrader @dailychartbook @jwnfl007 @moneymenpod @patrickbaker41 @stocknews690137 @brahimgkkaya20 @gfxfts @ericsoda @sharkhh @christinelshort @reuters @newyorkfed @chartfest1 @subutrade @thechartreport @almanactrader @cbarraud @fitbusinessman
Top assets mentioned Novo-Nordisk (NVO) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Bitcoin (BTC) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Strategy (MSTR) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) Texas Instruments (TXN) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Netflix Inc (NFLX) Bank of America (BAC) Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Intel Corporation (INTC) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Metadium (META) Arm Holdings plc (ARM) aelf (ELF) O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) Fortinet Inc (FTNT) Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD) Exxon Mobil (XOM) SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Looks like you can throw out the Nasdaq positive volume metrics for Thursday. Two penny stocks (Healthcare Triangle Inc. (HCTI) at a huge 5.7bn shares (it was up 226% Thursday to $0.30) and Greenlane Holdings Inc. (GNLN) at 4.1bn shares (which was up 100% to $0.15)) accounted for 80% of the volume. @neilksethi the data seems odd but 75% of the Naz volume looks to be in two penny stocks. @neilksethi the data seems odd but 75% of the Naz volume looks to be in two penny stocks"
X Link 2025-06-13T09:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"MarketWatch: The Roundhill Meme Stock exchange-traded fund was up more than 5% Thursday while shares of GameStop Corp. were on pace for a ninth straight day of gains which would be their longest winning streak since Aug. [--] [----] according to Dow Jones Market Data"
X Link 2025-12-04T17:20Z 20.9K followers, [----] engagements
"While copper and gold miner Freeport-McMoRan is up 23% in December and 39% YTD it remains a good 20% below its all-time high from May [----]. (Monthly chart)"
X Link 2025-12-26T19:30Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $TCOM $NFLX $WBD $PANW $CHKP $FTNT $WFC $BAC $C $TSLA $ABNB $SHEL $XOM $BIIB $NVO $INFY $CRWD $ZS $MSTR $RIVN $NVDA http://Briefing.com Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Wells Fargo Bank of America Netflix & more https://t.co/Ss8aF2A0qH http://Briefing.com Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Wells Fargo Bank of America Netflix & more https://t.co/Ss8aF2A0qH"
X Link 2026-01-14T14:20Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $IBRX $CPNG $QXO $PNC $POAHY $INTC $F $WMT $MU $SNDK $NVO $JBHT $RF http://Briefing.com Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: PNC ImmunityBio Coupang & more https://t.co/oXiYnpAF5a http://Briefing.com Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: PNC ImmunityBio Coupang & more https://t.co/oXiYnpAF5a"
X Link 2026-01-16T14:08Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Q4 SPX earnings season will continue Tuesday with [--] SPX reporters highlighted by NFLX. IBKR is the other which is over $100bn in market cap. We'll also get more regional banks (including the largest USB) the largest homebuilder in DHI an airline in UAL and two industrials (FAST MMM). Netflix and 3M among those reporting next week: https://t.co/5Pd3DnkWMd Netflix and 3M among those reporting next week: https://t.co/5Pd3DnkWMd"
X Link 2026-01-20T00:32Z 20.2K followers, [----] engagements
"BBG: Tuesday is the worst cross-asset decline across SPX TLT (20+ yr Treasuries) LQD (Corp IG) HYG (Corp HY) and IBIT (Bitcoin) since April"
X Link 2026-01-20T20:31Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Q4 SPX earnings continue Friday but a lighter day ahead of our heaviest week of the season next week with two SPX reporters neither of which are over $100bn in market cap in energy exploration firms SLB and BKR (in descending order of market cap). Busy week in earnings: https://t.co/zNQ3V1dvOQ Busy week in earnings: https://t.co/zNQ3V1dvOQ"
X Link 2026-01-23T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Hartnett (Flow Show): The Biggest Picture: silver price in Japanese yen at all-time high (Chart 2) surpasses [----] high; Japan debasement and weak Asian FX spurring big capital outflows into US & EU assets (e.g. Korean retail $100bn into US stocks Chart 4); watch Aussie dollar vs Japan yenAUDJPY110 = multi-year breakout to 35-year high = risk-stays-on; failure (on BoJ intervention) = peak of weak Asia FX-big outflow virtuous cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014646794118922346 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014646794118922346"
X Link 2026-01-23T10:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"$GLD the SPDR Gold Shares ETF juuust edges out March [----] (+8.69% vs +8.66%) for the largest weekly gain since Sept [----] (+13.1%)"
X Link 2026-01-23T21:02Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"US economic data relatively light next week with mostly just a bunch of delayed reports in Dec PPI Nov durable goods factory orders trade balance and wholesale inventories along with the Conference Board Jan consumer confidence report and the normal weekly reports (ADP jobless claims mortgage applications petroleum inventories). But the Fed kicks back into the spotlight with the Jan FOMC decision although this will be the least exciting (if youre interested in the path of interest rates) since last summer with a hold a lock no updated SEP or dot plot and Jerome Powell likely to get as many"
X Link 2026-01-24T13:24Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"And Goldman notes the dispersion between single stocks and the SPX is also seen in volatility: The spread of SPX average single stock 1m implied volatility to the index is in the 89th percentile on a 1y lookback and in the 97th percentile on a 5y lookback. Goldman notes that "we have been seeing a stock picker's market manifest in key vol metrics highlighting the chase for upside in single stock winners and a fade of a dramatic index rallies. "The spread of SPX Index skew to the average of its constituents is in the 93rd https://t.co/dvAwOjxLUe Goldman notes that "we have been seeing a stock"
X Link 2026-01-24T20:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi added her voice to the warnings to financial markets about pushing too far for a weakening yen and/or rising bond yields confirming statements from the Finance Ministry that the government is ready to take action which come after the NY Fed was apparently conducting "rate checks" on Friday. It is not for me as a prime minister to comment on matters that should be determined by the market but we will take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly abnormal movements she said during a television debate among party leaders on Sunday. Given the"
X Link 2026-01-25T13:43Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"DB: Like the S&P [---] our measure of equity positioning overall has continued to go sideways through a variety of short-lived tape bombs (0.41sd 68th percentile). Systematic strategies trimmed their overweight positioning this week as vol rose (0.67sd 79th percentile). Discretionary investors have raised positioning to a little above neutral the top of the cautious range in place since March (0.20sd 58th percentile). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015432469349364145 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015432469349364145"
X Link 2026-01-25T14:32Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"MarketWatch: The VXSLV a gauge of the SLV's implied volatility jumped above [---] on Monday "briefly peaking near [---] intradayan extremely elevated level that could be consistent with a peak in silver prices" says Michael Kramer at Mott Capital Management. Kramer notes that the last time we saw VXSLV readings this high was during the COVID lows for silver in March [----]. "This may be signaling a developing inflection point not just for silver but for the broader metals complex particularly given the sharp reversals seen today in platinum and palladium alongside silver" says Kramer"
X Link 2026-01-27T20:00Z 20.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TXN $STX $QRVO $FFIV Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Texas Instruments Seagate Technology Qorvo and more https://t.co/9CEEbHfeBL Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Texas Instruments Seagate Technology Qorvo and more https://t.co/9CEEbHfeBL"
X Link 2026-01-27T23:05Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Wed might be a rare Fed day where SPX earnings are the bigger story (particularly post-Fed) with three of the Mag-7 reporting after the close (MSFT META TSLA). In total there are again25 SPX components but [--] $100bn in market cap in MSFT META TSLA LRCX IBM APH GEV DHR T NOW SBUX ADP (in descending order by market cap). A packed earnings deck tomorrow led by ASML Meta &Microsoft: Before Open: $ASML $GEV $APH $T $GLW $GD $SBUX $VFC $PGR $DHR $TEVA $ELV $ADP $EAT After Close: $MSFT $META $TSLA $LRCX $NOW $WM $CLS $IBM $URI $LC $LVS $CCS $LEVI https://t.co/vQ48ZuZMu6 A packed earnings deck"
X Link 2026-01-28T01:15Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"As noted in the Week Ahead its a relatively light week (in terms of importance) for US economic data and Wednesday brings us just weekly mortgage apps and US petroleum inventory data. That will leave some room between morning earnings and the Fed decision at 2pm ET. As I mentioned in the Week Ahead: "this will be the least exciting (if youre interested in the path of interest rates) since last summer with a hold a lock no updated SEP or dot plot and Jerome Powell likely to get as many questions about Trump his future Fed independence etc. as he is about the economy and monetary policy.That"
X Link 2026-01-28T01:45Z 20.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Nomura: We do not expect a clear signal from Powell on future rate cuts. He will likely reiterate that policy is in a good place to respond to future developments and that rates are currently within a range of plausible estimates of neutral. Data since the December meeting have been modestly hawkish but we think it is unlikely that dovish or centrist officials are prepared to take near-term rate cuts off the table. We continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold for the remainder of Chair Powells term followed by 25bp cuts in each of June and September. #FOMC"
X Link 2026-01-28T11:30Z 20.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Redfin: A record 16.31% of homes under contract were cancelled in December the most on record to [----]. Over one in five (22.5%) pending home sales in Atlanta fell throughup from 19.6% in November and the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Jacksonville FL (20.6%) San Antonio (20.6%) Cleveland (20.2%) and Tampa (19.4%) rounded out the top five. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016536746096202137 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016536746096202137"
X Link 2026-01-28T15:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"As I mentioned yesterday with the Mag-7 earnings likely to outweigh the Fed in terms of implied volatility the 1-Day VIX rose to [----] despite dropping the FOMC as it incorporated those earnings. The current reading implies a 0.83% move in the SPX next session. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016662575036191068 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016662575036191068"
X Link 2026-01-29T00:00Z 20.4K followers, [----] engagements
"SPX earnings remain top of mind Thurs with our heaviest reporting day of the week (and perhaps the season) with another Mag-7 in AAPL plus another [--] SPX components with [--] others $100bn in market cap in V MA CAT TMO KLAC BX HON LMT SYK PH CMCSA MO (in descending order by market cap). Tesla Meta Apple Microsoft & ASML are some of those reporting this week: $AAPL $MSFT $META $TSLA $V $MA $ASML $UNH $RTX $IBM $TXN $NOW $GEV $CAT $UPS $DECK $GM $AXP $WM $SAP $NOC $BA $BX $APH $PH $NUE $STLD $MO $RYAAY $LRCX $T $VZ $SOFI $AAL $LEVI https://t.co/wzs9D1N9jY Tesla Meta Apple Microsoft & ASML are"
X Link 2026-01-29T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"BoAs takeaways from yesterdays #FOMC decision and Powell press conference: In our view there were three major hawkish surprises in the January FOMC statement: -In the characterization current conditions the Fed noted that the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilizationWe were surprised by the Feds willingness to lean into a single favorable data print. -In the assessment of the balance of risks the committee removed the language saying that it judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.This also seemed like a significant step with private job growth averaging"
X Link 2026-01-29T12:30Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Nomura has a more optimistic view on the labor market noting that there "has been better breadth of job gains across sectors" recently and perhaps more importantly the fears of a huge downward revision to [----] job growth in the QCEW revisions next month may be overstated as "Q2 QCEW data suggest less risk of a future negative benchmark revision (Fig 4)". https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016858488765309382 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016858488765309382"
X Link 2026-01-29T12:58Z 20.2K followers, [----] engagements
"SPX earnings will ease off from here but well still get another [--] SPX components reporting Friday with [--] $100bn in market cap in XOM CVX AXP VZ (in descending order by market cap). Busy week of earnings ahead as we move towards the peak weeks of the Q4 reporting season. We expect almost 1.3k global firms to report out of our 11k coverage. We'll start to hear from big tech as [--] of the #mag7 are set to report. Watch for: $AAPL $MSFT $TSLA $META $XOM $V https://t.co/tiEwlYTq58 Busy week of earnings ahead as we move towards the peak weeks of the Q4 reporting season. We expect almost 1.3k global"
X Link 2026-01-30T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"All righty the big day is coming as Pres Trump speaking at the premiere for Melania the film about first lady Melania Trump steals the spotlight saying Ill be announcing the Fed chair tomorrow morning." But it doesn't sound like it will be Rick Reider or Kevin Hassett as Trump teased a lot of people think this is somebody that couldve been there a few years ago." Assuming this is a reference to former Fed Gov Kevin Warsh odds on Kalshi of Warsh being the next Fed Chair have spiked to 85% while Rieder fell to 10% and current Gov Waller 3%. Trump says he will announce a replacement for Powell"
X Link 2026-01-30T01:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"DB: The #FOMC statement and press conference signaled that the Committee feels better about the economic outlook than it did in December. By extension the need for nearterm rate cuts has lessened. We therefore see the meeting as reinforcing our expectation that the Powellled Fed delivered its last rate cut in December. More broadly risks around our expectation of one rate cut this year in September have become more balanced. Although weaker labor market outcomes could trigger earlier rate cuts than anticipated incoming information supports our view that policy is near neutral and thus may not"
X Link 2026-01-30T11:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Nomura's McElligott notes that some trades are getting rather crowded: Crowded Stuff that EVERYBODY is into (CTA Trend to Macro Tourists / Retail Long Gold Silver Equities EM and Short USD) has continued to load with more positioning / exposure because its the only thing that keeps working (versus Rates and Vol being DEAD feeding-back into further low conviction) Which creates a risk where Profit-Take spills over "into a larger Risk Management Exercise of forced selling into Skinny Exits. But he notes the Good News is that most of these trends remain Deep In The Money vs risk-management"
X Link 2026-01-30T12:25Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"And it's official with a Truth Social post at 6.48am ET Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve (who typically would also be selected by the Governors as the chair of the #FOMC) with a lengthy list of Warsh's experience. I have known Kevin for a long period of time and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen maybe the best Trump wrote. On top of everything else he is central casting and he will never let you down. Warsh served on the US central banks Board of Governors (he was the youngest ever) from [----] to [----] and has previously"
X Link 2026-01-30T12:42Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"UK households scaled back their borrowing in December for the first time in three years suggesting sentiment remained cautious going in [----] in a potential warning sign for the tepid British economy. Banks and building societies authorized [-----] home loans down from [-----] in November and the lowest for [--] months the Bank of England said Friday. It was the first December fall since [----] surprising economists who on average had expected a modest increase to [-----]. The central bank also said consumers borrowed an extra [---] billion ($2.8 billion) of unsecured debt less than economists forecast."
X Link 2026-01-30T13:10Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"MarketWatch We're seeing a modest curve steepening following the Warsh announcement with 10yr (red) and 30yr (blue) yields higher on the day with the 2yr (green) lower. I mentioned that Warsh has been an active critic of an expanded Fed balance sheet and Ian Lyngen head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO says that is playing into the action: The logic is relatively straightforward said Lyngen Warsh is viewed as being less inclined to use the Feds balance sheet to control longer dated interest rates than the other candidates considered by Trump to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. And it's"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:40Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"$SLV iShares Silver Trust down -16.6% it's worst day since Sept 2011"
X Link 2026-01-30T19:45Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Noticed this chart from the excellent @dailychartbook nightly email about how short interest particularly on the QQQ has fallen to new lows. The caption asks if it's complacency or signs of growing downside risk but to me it's likely less about complacency and more about being tired of being run over. Since April shorting this market for any sustained period has been a money losing endeavor. The problem is it removes a marginal buyer particularly on a sharp selloff where shorts might cover. But with no shorts there is less of that but the shorts have plenty of dry powder then to add on"
X Link 2026-01-31T12:00Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"MS: Our US economics team expects individual tax refunds issued to be $40-70bn higher than those in [----]. Using the midpoint of their estimated range individual tax refunds issued would amount to $350bn by the end of May or +20% y/y. In Exhibit [--] we show individual tax refunds issued (checks + EFT) over recent years. [----] and [----] had the highest totals as a result of Covid-related stimulus programs. While the ramp in individual tax refunds issued is still to come in late February this year refunds are running 16% above the prior year (Exhibit 2)"
X Link 2026-01-31T12:20Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"New 52-wk highs minus new 52-wk lows (red lines) fell to the lows of the year on both the NYSE and Nasdaq Friday at [--] and [----] respectively (down from [---] and [---] on Jan 22nd the best since Nov 24). Markets Update - 1/30/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/YuN53xWpOT https://t.co/ytxqloHUIJ Markets Update - 1/30/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/YuN53xWpOT https://t.co/ytxqloHUIJ"
X Link 2026-01-31T21:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"With 33% of the SPX by earnings weight having reported (so still on the early side) through Thursday 75% have beaten (unch w/w down from 83% in Q3 which though was the best since Q2 21) below the 5yr average of 78% and the 10yr average of 76%"
X Link 2026-01-31T22:17Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Surprisingly the NY Feds 4Q GDP tracker remained just off the highest since it initiated tracking in August at 2.73% (the peak was 2.75% Jan 16th) not seeing any net changes from the very unexpected trade balance report (which saw cuts to other GDP trackers). As a reminder they were well under for 3Q at +2.31% vs the +4.3% actual first estimate and 2Q at +1.68% vs +3.0% after being too high for 1Q at +2.6% vs -0.3% (although they have been closer in most quarters prior to 2025)). And another reminder the model is dynamic and constantly updating itself (how it weights inputs etc.) to become"
X Link 2026-02-01T11:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"BoA: With the economic outlook improving we think the most important question for the Fed this year will be where is the neutral rate and how is it impacted by growing evidence of accelerating labor productivity. This matters because if policy is already neutral the case to cut rates would hinge mostly on the labor data. Even if inflation were a bit softer than expected there wouldnt be a compelling reason to cut if the labor and activity data are steady. Chair Powell got a few questions.His responses suggested he believes policy is still restrictive. We disagree. Powell noted that only three"
X Link 2026-02-01T12:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I would have thought P/Es would have fallen w/w with the improvement in earnings expectations and flat to down weeks in the indices but all four that Yardeni tracks were unch w/w other than the Mag-7 which edged higher: -The SPX forward P/E (red line) remained at [----] (-1.8pts from the highest since [----] on Yardenis model (which is a bit lower than most others (presumably due to the forward earnings calculation and earnings data source))). -Mid-caps (blue S&P 400) at [----] (-0.2pts from the highest since [----] and -0.6pts from the highest since early-21 (17.1)). -Small caps (green S&P [---] so"
X Link 2026-02-01T20:30Z 20.2K followers, [----] engagements
"BoA sees their 4Q GDP tracker give back two-thirds of the prior weeks +0.6% jump (still up +1.0% the last month) to 2.4% as of Thursday. They see real final sales to domestic purchasers coming in at +1.7% (unch)"
X Link 2026-02-01T22:58Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"While were past the peak of SPX earnings its still a huge week with 25% of the SPX by earnings weight reporting consisting of around [---] SPX components with two more Mag-7s in GOOG & AMZN and another [--] $100bn in market cap in DIS PLTR AMGN AMD MRK CB PEP ETN PFE BSX CME MCK QCOM ABBV UBER BMY LIN COP KKR PM (by reporting date). Full list below from TradingView. Next week in earnings has Alphabet AMD Uber Qualcomm and Amazon reporting https://t.co/500LK6sKCQ Next week in earnings has Alphabet AMD Uber Qualcomm and Amazon reporting https://t.co/500LK6sKCQ"
X Link 2026-02-02T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"The Week Ahead - 2/1/26 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income Note this is going to a sub model ($10/mth) starting next week so check it out and see if you like it as I'll be posting less of the content. https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/the-week-ahead-2126 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/the-week-ahead-2126"
X Link 2026-02-02T03:12Z 21.4K followers, 17K engagements
"Goldman: We expect solid spending growth will extend into [----] as tax cuts from the OBBBA add roughly $100bn to household tax refunds during the Feb-April filing season and forecast above-consensus 2.2% real PCE spending growth in [----] on a Q4/Q4 basis (vs. 2.3% in 2025)"
X Link 2026-02-02T12:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"MarketWatch: Wall Street research firms see no reason to back away from their gold-price forecasts after Friday's retreat in the yellow metal. Deutsche Bank reiterated its $6000 call and JPMorgan increased its target by 25% to $6300. "Even with the likelihood of some positioning washing out over this pullback as gold remains a dynamic multi-faceted portfolio hedge we now forecast enough demand from central banks and investor diversification this year to ultimately push gold prices to $6300/oz by year end 2026" said JPMorgan's analysts led by Gregory Shearer. JPMorgan's silver target was also"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:45Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $PLTR $NXPI $TER $DVA $FN $RMBS $WWD Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Palantir NXP Semiconductors DaVita and more https://t.co/kwce2EoN0N Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Palantir NXP Semiconductors DaVita and more https://t.co/kwce2EoN0N"
X Link 2026-02-02T23:32Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Q4 earnings season rolls on and Tuesday well get [--] SPX components with seven $100bn in market cap in AMD MRK PEP AMGN PFE ETN CB (in order of market cap). AI spending anxiety is meeting peak earnings season. MSFTs recent plunge shows investors are laser-focused on capex ROI even amid beats. This week $GOOGL and $AMZN face the $500B capex test. Full analysis from @ChristineLShort on the "show me the money" phase of AI: https://t.co/VHPkDK349T AI spending anxiety is meeting peak earnings season. MSFTs recent plunge shows investors are laser-focused on capex ROI even amid beats. This week"
X Link 2026-02-03T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Meanwhile $IGV the iShares Tech Software ETF down around -4.9% today taking its losses since the end of October to -28% nearly 20% of that this year. In addition to seeing their stock prices impacted the SLOOS report (bank lending conditions) from the Fed for Q3 released yesterday indicated they may be having a harder time obtaining C&I loans: "a major net share of banks reported being less likely to approve such loans to https://t.co/D3edu16BH4 In addition to seeing their stock prices impacted the SLOOS report (bank lending conditions) from the Fed for Q3 released yesterday indicated they"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:38Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Fun fact SanDisk $SNDK has joined the $100bn club after adding another +4.6% today taking its market value gains to around $70bn this year. It is now larger than Western Digital $WDC who spun it off last year (even as WDC itself is up 68% this year)"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:12Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"From the Daily Update Q4 earnings season rolls on and Wednesday well get [--] SPX components with another Mag-7 in GOOG. In addition well get seven other $100bn in market cap in LLY ABBV UBER QCOM BSX CME MCK (in order of market cap). https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2326 Next week is a packed one in earnings: https://t.co/SmktMckjhx https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2326 Next week is a packed one in earnings: https://t.co/SmktMckjhx"
X Link 2026-02-04T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"From the report: Japanese services companies signalled an increase in business activity for the tenth month in a row in January. Furthermore the respective seasonally adjusted index climbed from [----] in December to [----] to signal a solid rate of growth that was the most pronounced since last February. Underlying data split by sub-industry suggested that Finance & Insurance firms continued to lead the upturn while the softest rise in activity was seen across the Information & Communication segment. The stronger rise in services activity was supported by the fastest upturn in new work for four"
X Link 2026-02-04T03:26Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Citadel's Rubner: Retail activity in January was exceptional. Demand at Citadel Securities across both cash equities and options reached record January levels with average daily net inflows and contracts well above historical norms. Retail behavior was not just active but persistent. Retail traders at Citadel Securities were net buyers of cash equities and directionally skewed better to buy in options each week so far this year. Cumulatively January net inflows grew more than 50% versus January [----] underscoring the scale of early-year demand. Options activity also reached new January highs"
X Link 2026-02-04T12:15Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"For those who haven't subscribed the nightly Markets Update (link to last night's: provides a nightly snapshot of current #FOMC rate pricing from the CME FedWatch tool. From last night's report: "FOMC [----] rate cut pricing was almost unchanged but still edged with rounding to 49bps up from 47bps Mon but down from 53bps on Friday (pre-ISM). No cut is expected under Powell still with March at 9% (down from 51% Jan 6th) April 24% (from 63%) with the first cut in June which will be Warshs first meeting (57% but down from 68% Fri). A second cut remains in Oct at 54% but as compared to 55% chance"
X Link 2026-02-04T12:40Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Goldman: AI At Risk (GSTMTAIR) had its worst day in nearly [--] years and third worst day on record Tuesday. Software was hurting across the board and our Broad Software Basket (GSTMTSFT) has now lost $2tn of value from the highs 30% drop in market cap to the least in [--] years. Even though software is now in a bear market and has entered oversold territory no one is stepping in to defend the complex yet and buyers continue to beware. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019029546713174100 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019029546713174100"
X Link 2026-02-04T12:45Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"BBG reports that a Morgan Stanley basket that goes long momentum winners (normally a [--] or 12-month lookback) and shorts recent losers is down -8.7% today (chart). A similar Goldman Sachs basket tumbled -11% at one point"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:15Z 20.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Markets Update - 2/4/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2426 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2426"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:39Z 20.2K followers, 10.3K engagements
"From the nightly Markets Update (link: Q4 earnings season rolls on and Thursday well get [--] SPX components reporting with another Mag-7 in AMZN. In addition well get four other $100bn in market cap in LIN COP BMY KKR (in order of market cap). https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2426 Thursday's earnings deck: Before Open: $UBER $LLY $ADNT $ABBV $NVO $CME $CDW $BG $CTSH $UBS $FTV $GEHC $BSX $JCI After Close: $GOOGL $ARM $ORLY $SYM $FLNC $ALL $COHR $ELF $QCOM $ALGT $MET $MOD $MCK $ALGN https://t.co/cyaSq4JWWr https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2426 Thursday's earnings"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Some notable stats from the Markets Update as despite the down day in the SPX we had the most components up 3% or more this year (120) but just [--] of them were $100bn in market cap. In contrast [--] of the [--] components down 3% or more were $100bn in market cap (and four were $1tn) (chart from @finviz_com): In line with the positive sector breadth [---] SPX components were up 3% or more (the most this year) led by SuperMicro SMCI +13.8% one of three stocks up over 10% (with FTV and LLY). But just [--] of those [---] were $100bn in market cap (after [--] of [--] Mon) in LLY AMGN CB SBUX DE PFE UNP (in"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:47Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"From the update: Notably despite the big down day in the Nasdaq 52-wk highs minus lows didn't deteriorate and remained above Friday's low. Markets Update - 2/4/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/soax1FgacU https://t.co/gJEibiPwZu Markets Update - 2/4/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/soax1FgacU https://t.co/gJEibiPwZu"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:00Z 20.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Nomura's McElligott notes that as he warned at the end of last year "with regard to this idea of these AI-tied Equities -inputs potentially then going From Tailwind to Headwind as catalyst for 1) Credit Spread widening 2) a negative Buyback impulse and 3) the prospective of a reversal blast of rebalancing out-of crowded legacy positioning in Expensive Secular Growth-themes (from both the older-era SaaS /Compounders to current AI -one and The Artist Formerly Known as Expensive Software) was a real risk to Stocks after a DECADE + of almost default assumption of the opposite.""
X Link 2026-02-05T12:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Challenger Jan job cuts jump +118% y/y to 108.5k the most since Oct and the most for any Jan since [----] after closing out [----] with the most cuts since [----] (and the 7th highest total since 1989). The 4th quarter saw the most cuts since [----]. Generally we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter but this is a high total for January. It means most of these plans were set at the end of [----] signaling employers are less-than-optimistic about the outlook for [----] said Andy Challenger workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger Gray & Christmas. 40% of those were due to"
X Link 2026-02-05T12:53Z 21.3K followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-january-job-cuts-surge-lowest-january-hiring-on-record/ https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-january-job-cuts-surge-lowest-january-hiring-on-record/"
X Link 2026-02-05T12:53Z 20.3K followers, [---] engagements
"Governor Andrew Bailey was once again the swing voter in an unexpectedly close 5-4 decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% however Bailey confirmed in a statement that there should be scope for some further reduction in bank rate this year. The majority of economists polled by Bloomberg anticipated a 7-2 outcome. The yield on 10-year gilts dropped to 4.53% and traders now see a roughly 60% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the next decision in March compared with about 20% previously. Sterling traded 0.8% lower at $1.354 its weakest since Jan. [--] while two-year yields fell to 3.63% the"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:07Z 20.4K followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/gilts-jump-pound-retreats-as-traders-bet-on-march-boe-rate-cut https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/gilts-jump-pound-retreats-as-traders-bet-on-march-boe-rate-cut"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:07Z 20.2K followers, [---] engagements
"The banks forecasts showed inflation returning to the 2% target in April and then falling below for much of [----]. The minutes of the MPCs meeting said there was evidence of subdued economic growth and building slack in the labor market. The upside risks to inflation have become less pronounced it added. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019397924468195696 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019397924468195696"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:09Z 20.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@JWnFL007 Not a bad thought. But its hard to spin it as supportive for equities in the short term"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:01Z 20.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch $GOOGL $QCOM $EL $CARR $CPAY $ALGN $ELF $ARM $ORLY $AVGO $NVDA $ORLY $MSTR $COIN $HOOD $TPR $PTON $CAH $HSY $B $SYM $BNPFY $SHEL Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Qualcomm Strategy Align Estee Lauder and more https://t.co/0pJnpvArf0 Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Qualcomm Strategy Align Estee Lauder and more https://t.co/0pJnpvArf0"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:10Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"As We Approach The Open. 2/5/26 Quick roundup of markets ahead of the cash opening of US equities (no sub required) https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/as-we-approach-the-open-2526 Software stocks struggle Google's AI spending layoffs surge and more in Morning Squawk https://t.co/EHSuwSK6UE https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/as-we-approach-the-open-2526 Software stocks struggle Google's AI spending layoffs surge and more in Morning Squawk https://t.co/EHSuwSK6UE"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:22Z 20.3K followers, [----] engagements
"MarketWatch: Bank of Americas global rates and currencies team found that although references to "Sell America" and "Dollar Debasement" across all media spiked significantly since the turn of the year there has only been one day of material co-selling of the dollar and the S&P [---] this year -- on Jan. [--]. For the Bank of America team led by Alex Cohen these market narratives seem exaggerated therefore and while as a house it remains generally dollar bearish it expects the path lower will be a more gentle slope than some commentators suggest. Moreover measures of dollar positioning captured by"
X Link 2026-02-05T19:30Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"$ORCL Oracle is closing in on the April lows now down -60% from the peak Sep 10th"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:30Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Markets Update - 2/5/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2526 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2526"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:57Z 21.5K followers, 15.2K engagements
"From last night's Markets Update (sub here: FOMC [----] rate cut pricing jumped higher following Challenger and JOLTS adding 10bps of cuts to now 60bps the highest in a month according to the CMEs Fedwatch tool. No cut is expected under Powell but its getting closer with March at 25% (up from 12% Wed (but down from 51% Jan 6th) April 42% (from 25% down from 63%) with the first cut in June which will be Warshs first meeting (79% (from 58%). A second cut now firmly back in Sept at 66% (from 49% Wed) but still as compared to a 55% chance of a July second cut on Jan 6th). Pricing for [----] as noted"
X Link 2026-02-06T11:00Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Rubner: Historically retail cash activity at Citadel Securities has tended to moderate from January into February with seasonal patterns since [----] showing a consistent decline in net notional following the early-year surge. Recent price action suggests this risk is becoming more relevant. Periods of rotation back toward large-cap growth and defensives have coincided with pressure in retail-led themes underscoring their vulnerability. Citadel's Rubner: Retail activity in January was exceptional. Demand at Citadel Securities across both cash equities and options reached record January levels"
X Link 2026-02-06T11:43Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"BoA (Harnett Flow Show) notes EPFR flows week through Wed showed the biggest weekly outflow since Nov in crypto funds/ETFs at -$1.5bn. Hartnett notes on that and the rotation trade: $2tn crypto market cap loss since Oct = 10% of US consumer spend; Wall St sensibly rotating from AI spenders to beneficiaries services to manufacturing US exceptionalism to global rebalancing bond-bear losers to peak yield winners (REITs); but if wealth surge at top of K-shape US economy reverses at same time payrolls start fallingbiggest meltdown could be US Treasury yields."
X Link 2026-02-06T12:53Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch $AMZN $RDDT $NVO $LLY $HIMS $CG $STLA $BX $MSTR Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Amazon Reddit Strategy Molina Strategy Eli Lilly & more https://t.co/eKaioqKbpS Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Amazon Reddit Strategy Molina Strategy Eli Lilly & more https://t.co/eKaioqKbpS"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:57Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"As We Approach The Open. 2/6/26 Quick roundup of markets ahead of the cash opening of US equities As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading solidly higher led by the small-cap Russell [----] (RUT) https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/as-we-approach-the-open-2626 Bitcoin's rough week Amazon's plunge Super Bowl ads and more in Morning Squawk https://t.co/F84zmW24j6 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/as-we-approach-the-open-2626 Bitcoin's rough week Amazon's plunge Super Bowl ads and more in Morning Squawk https://t.co/F84zmW24j6"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:12Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"While BoA and Goldman see SPX just entering into negative gamma Tier1Alpha sees gamma as "the most negative reading since October of last year" which implies "higher volatility is likely" even as the 10-day realized volatility "is still well below average for a GVT reading that is this negative as the structural dispersion we've been tracking all week has helped to buffer some of the close-to-close returns." "The most important thing to remember today is that negative gamma environments create instability in both directions. This means big upswings are just as likely as big downswings""
X Link 2026-02-06T14:35Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - February (P) Sentiment rises to the best since Aug led by higher incomes but still remains historically low while 1-yr inflation expectations fall to a 1-yr low but remain historically elevated https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/university-of-michigan-survey-of-088 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/university-of-michigan-survey-of-088 US Univ. of Michigan Sentiment Feb P: [----] (est 55.0; prev 56.4) - Current Conditions: [----] (est 53.7; prev 55.4) - Expectations: [----] (est 55.1; prev 57.0) - 1-Year Inflation: 3.5% (est 4.0%; prev 4.0%) - 5-10 Year"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:50Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"SPX flirting with its best day of the year which would be the best since Thanksgiving week. 🦃"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:10Z 21.5K followers, 14.8K engagements
"Something about bitcoin in February. Today's +12.5% gain in bitcoin is the largest since Feb '22 and before that Feb '21. Note though in those prior two cases it was part of a topping process that wouldn't bottom until Nov '22 (which started the most recent bull market)"
X Link 2026-02-06T20:30Z 21.4K followers, [----] engagements
"$SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF +5.7% today its best day since May"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:04Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Markets Update - 2/6/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day/week with lots of charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2626 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2626"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:35Z 21.5K followers, 23.9K engagements
"@moneymenpod I think that was actually the start of the post-vaccine bull run (Nov 9th was the Pfizer announcement)"
X Link 2026-02-07T02:28Z 21.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Each Market Update contains a breakdown of the SPX by heatmap top [--] performance and number of components up and down more than 3% (as well as how many were $100bn in market cap). Sub here (just need to make a small charitable donation Stock-by-stock flag from @finviz_com doesnt really need an explanation. Lots of green outside of just a few splotches of red (although a couple of those splotches are fairly large). In that regard eight of the largest [--] SPX components were higher led by NVDA +7.9% a bit better than AVGOs +7.2%. Leading to the downside easily was AMZN -5.6%. Mag-7 +0.4%"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Goldmans US Equity Sentiment Indicator* after moving into stretched positioning (over 1.0) five weeks ago for the first time in nearly a year but falling back the following week to [----] (the first negative read in six weeks) spent a fourth week near the [--] mark for a second week right on it (0.0). *The indicator combines six weekly and three monthly indicators that span across the more than 80% of the US equity market that is owned by institutional retail and foreign investors. Readings of +1.0 or higher have historically signaled stretched equity positioning. Readings of [----] or lower have"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"On the "long Main Street" Harnett says "Main St plays e.g. EM small cap banks REITs assets punished H1 2020s by big bond bear market; [----] inflation surprises downside as AI chills labor market politicians address voter concerns over affordability; why Trump aggressive intervention to reduce price of energy healthcare credit housing electricity via Big Oil Big Pharma Big Banks Big Tech means small & mid-cap best play for "boom" on Main St in run-up to US midterms; plus flip from asset-light to asset-heavy business model suggests major threat to 2020s market leadership of Big Tech/Magnificent"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:07Z 21.5K followers, 21.1K engagements
"Goldman: The launch of a legal automation tool and a new LLM by Anthropic along with broad ramping of AI capacity and services has led to a sharp rotation out of software and related sectors globally.Any company which collates aggregates disseminates software and data as a service are seen as increasingly vulnerable to disruption from AI-driven tools. As we show in Exhibit [--] the weight of these capital-light sectors where investors fear disruption (broadly defined) has collapsed while the mirror of this has been the rise in the weight of Financials (benefit from steeper yield curves) and"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:50Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Hartnett notes while he expects the key levels for "froth assets" to hold he notes "the painful price collapse of Wall St longs (Mag7 crypto precious private credit Chart 4) vs. Wall St shorts (small cap staples energy) driven by combo of peak positioning peak liquidity (less rate cuts more rate hikes) peak politics (low approval for equity-friendly Trump); but absent systemic event surge in US dollar (DXY to 100) and associated meltdown in Treasury yields we say this big healthy overdue unwind in 'froth.'" BoA (Hartnett Flow Show) says the "key levels" to watch in the froth unwind" are big"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Rubner: Positioning into January was defined by extraordinary demand. Liquidity surged early in the month volatility and correlations compressed and flows provided a powerful technical tailwind for risk assets. Both retail and institutional participation reinforced momentum allowing markets to absorb rotation and volatility without meaningful drawdowns. As February begins the technical backdrop is shifting. While liquidity remains ample the pace of incremental deployment has slowed and positioning is becoming more selective. With much of Januarys demand already expressed markets are"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"FT article looks at a working paper from the St Louis Fed which asked people to estimate how much time AI tools saved them at work and also examined recent labor productivity growth between the introduction of ChatGPT and the second quarter of [----] relative to its trend between [----] and [----]. This was supposed to strip out any pre-existing trends that could mess up the results. Combining these two metrics they found that the industries where workers were saving the most time using AI were also the ones seeing unusually fast labor productivity growth. These included information services as"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Citadel's Rubner: As February begins focus shifts from the breadth of Januarys gains to the durability of leadership. While the broader rotation trend remains intact recent price action suggests early signs of consolidation as incremental flows become more selective. That shift is evident in small-cap relative performance. The RTY/SPX ratio reached a one-year high on January 22nd reflecting strong early-year leadership from smaller-cap higher-beta exposure. Since then the ratio has eased back to the 92nd percentile of its one-year range as investors began to reintroduce exposure to large-cap"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:02Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Gene Tannuzzo of Columbia Threadneedle makes an interesting point about Warsh which is that while he will likely remain tilted towards the Fed's inflation mandate Janet Yellen came in with the same concern in the other direction and while she was perhaps the most dovish Fed Chair we've had her first move was a rate hike. https://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/29/yellen-to-be-more-dovish-than-helicopter-ben-cnbc-survey.html https://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/29/yellen-to-be-more-dovish-than-helicopter-ben-cnbc-survey.html"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Each Market Update also provides the daily positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) for the NYSE which Friday jumped to 80.8% the best since Nov 21st (and before that Aug). Still I would have liked a higher number given the +2.29% gain in the index. On Nov 21st the gain was just +1.26% with positive volume of 83.8% Sub here (just need to make a small charitable donation https://neilsethi.substack.com Markets Update - 2/6/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day/week with lots"
X Link 2026-02-07T19:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's gamble to expand her majority looks set to pay off in a big way with public broadcaster NHK reporting that her Liberal Democratic Party together with its coalition partner have already won [---] seats in the lower house comfortably expanding the previous razor-thin majority of [---] and putting them on track to win [---] seats which would represent a two-thirds super majority in the 465-seat body. Such a super-majority smooths the process for the LDP to push through more contentious legislation surrounding spending cuts to food taxes (and their length which"
X Link 2026-02-08T14:22Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"DB: Our measure of aggregate equity positioning declined this week to only slightly overweight (0.19sd 52nd percentile. -Discretionary investor positioning dropped to marginally underweight (-0.14sd 37th percentile) taking it to the lower half of the cautious range it has been in over the last [--] months. - Systematic strategies positioning also fell slightly but remained overweight (0.59sd 74th percentile). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020512953297248360 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020512953297248360"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@PatrickBaker41 Yup. That said she was probably the most dovish fed chair weve had"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:38Z 21.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Morningstar: since its inception on Nov. [--] [----] through the end of 2025; with the recent surge $GLD returned an average of 10.92% slightly outpacing Vanguard Total Stock Market Index which returned 10.58% annually"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Goldman: The outlook for a large increase in IPO activity has raised concerns among some investors that rising equity supply will cause indigestion in the equity market. History shows that periods of elevated IPO activity typically take place against a backdrop of strong equity market returns but generally precede periods of below-average returns. However we believe this is generally a reflection of correlation rather than causation. In the past the periods of most elevated IPO supply have often coincided with episodes of unsustainable investor exuberance rather than generating supply that"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Also in the Week Ahead is a rundown each week on earnings revenues etc. (mostly from Factset). For example it notes while Q4 earnings beats have been stable at around 76% (down from 83% in Q3) the % of companies beating has been jumping around a bit through Thursday at +7.6% y/y (down -1.5% w/w) still though above the +6.6% in Q3. But despite the weaker beats expectations for Q4 y/y earnings growth increased to +13.0% (from +11.9% the prior week and +8.2% the week before that) according to Factset which now represents a +4.7% increase since the start of the year. It's also on track for a"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"In addition to the Trucking Demand indicator jumping to the highest since Apr '22 the Truck Capacity Indicator or shippers views of available capacity dropped to the least since Mar '22 at [----] from last issues [----] while the Rate Indicator or shippers view on truck rates rose to the highest since Apr '22 at [----] from [----] last issue. In line with the demand increases trucking guru Craig Fuller has been tracking (great follow for all things transportation) BoA says their "proprietary bi-weekly BofA Truckload Demand Indicator for shippers' 0- to 3-month freight demand outlook jumped to"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:30Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Each Markets Update provides the 1-Day VIX reading (sub here: Here's what it said Friday: Despite the upcoming weekend with the Mag-7 earnings behind us for now the 1-Day VIX like the VIX and VVIX fell back from the highest since Nov to [----]. The current reading implies a 0.94% move in the SPX next session. https://neilsethi.substack.com https://neilsethi.substack.com Markets Update - 2/6/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day/week with lots of charts https://t.co/lMjVy9ouqR https://t.co/fYflRRQmR2"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:11Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Ex-US a lighter week highlighted by the fallout from the smashing victory by Japan PM Takaichis LDP party in snap elections inflation data from China to Switzerland to Brazil gross domestic product in the UK China credit data Japan wage data and rate decisions from Russia to Peru may focus investors. The Week Ahead - 2/8/26 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income https://t.co/nObl75msmj https://t.co/8LfHVLfGms The Week Ahead - 2/8/26 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income https://t.co/nObl75msmj"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:20Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Each Market Update also provides daily positive volume for the Nasdaq and that was even better on Friday at 81.8% the best since Aug 22nd (and 3rd best since Aug 24) after a +2.18% gain in the index. Each Market Update also provides the daily positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) for the NYSE which Friday jumped to 80.8% the best since Nov 21st (and before that Aug). Still I would have liked a higher number given the +2.29% gain in the https://t.co/9dAyPj7WI4 Each Market Update also provides the daily positive volume (percent of total volume that was in"
X Link 2026-02-09T10:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"San Francisco Fed Pres Daly is not a [----] #FOMC voter but her views are normally closely aligned with the "core" (Powell/Williams/Jefferson). However she seems to be breaking a little from Powell's indication that risks to the labor market and inflation are roughly balanced saying in a Reuters interview Friday "I'm a little more worried about the labor market than I am about inflation" as a "low-firing" labor market can quickly turn to a "some-firing" environment in her opinion while the article says "there's little that makes her feel an inflation spike is in the offing." She also indicated"
X Link 2026-02-09T10:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@StockNews690137 That seems the general consensus"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:13Z 21.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch $ORCL $STM $KR $NVO $HIMS $HOOD $MU $AVGO $AMD $LLY $AAPL Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Oracle Novo Nordisk Hims & Hers Health Kroger and more https://t.co/UX1extrwnv Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Oracle Novo Nordisk Hims & Hers Health Kroger and more https://t.co/UX1extrwnv"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:52Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Tier1Alpha also notes that while they saw notable selling from CTAs last week "the most important change in positioning on Friday came from vol control funds. These are volatility-scaling strategies widely used across the insurance complex that size exposure based on the higher of 1-month and 3-month realized volatility. "Unfortunately Fridays upside volatility impulse had enough force to push 1-month realized back above 3-month realized flipping vol control from net buyers to sellers. All else being equal we estimate over $31B of net equity selling requirements this week which could"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:40Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Jan NY Fed consumer survey (I like better than UMich b/c it follows a consistent panel of [----] h/hs) sees inflation expectations fall back up at the 1-yr horizon while continuing to hold steady at the [--] and 5-yr horizons: -1-yr inflation expectations fell back three tenths (after increasing two tenths in Dec) to 3.1% down from the joint highest (with Sept) since the 3.6% in Apr which was the highest since Oct [--] -3-yr unchanged for an eighth month at 3.0% (down from 3.2% in Apr the highest since July 2022) -5-yr unchanged for a sixth month at a joint record high of 3.0% (which has been hit"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:33Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Major US equity indices opened lower chopped for 30mins then headed higher peaking at noon (ex-DJIA which traded flat all day). They wouldn't soften much and ended solidly higher led by the Nasdaq +0.9%. Then RUT +0.7% SPX +0.5% while DJIA lagged ending little changed"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:09Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Markets Update - 2/9/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2926 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-2926"
X Link 2026-02-09T23:03Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"As part of each Markets Update there's a look at the day ahead (sub here to get these in your inbox post-US close each day): Tuesday a heavier day for US economic data. Well get retail sales the Employment Cost Index for Q4 Dec import prices NFIB small business optimism and the ADP weekly employment report. Fed speakers will continue with new [----] voters regional bank presidents Hammack and Logan who we havent heard from recently. Hammack has been the most hawkish Fed member and Logan has been close so it will be interesting to see if they see any scope for rate cuts in [----] (both said"
X Link 2026-02-10T11:00Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Goldman sees an "uptick in volumes" from discretionary buybacks into last week's selloff in many names which along with the buyback window opening further boosted buybacks 40% w/w: With the extreme market selloffs mid-week last week corresponding with the open window period for corporates we saw an uptick in volumes last week finishing 1.7x vs [----] YTD ADTV and 1.1x vs [----] YTD ADTV. That is approx. 40% higher vs the previous week. In terms of open window periods we estimate 65% in open window now with 75% in open window by the end of the week. Of the largest historical repurchasers we will"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:45Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch $TSM $DD $SPGI $CVS $RACE $KO $ $UPWK $ON $CHGG $CRDO $GOOGL $AAPL $HOG $MAR $UA $RGNX $FISV $SPOT $AZN $BP $BCS $BABA $GTM Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Coca-Cola CVS Health Ferrari Taiwan Semi and more https://t.co/cyQ2O9RSdu Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Coca-Cola CVS Health Ferrari Taiwan Semi and more https://t.co/cyQ2O9RSdu"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:49Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"As We Approach The Open. 2/10/26 Quick roundup of markets ahead of the cash opening of US equities As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading little changed not seeing such movement after a weaker-than-expected retail sales report which showed headline sales coming in flat vs a +0.4% m/m gain expected while the important control group number (which feeds into GDP) came in at -0.1% (vs the same expected gain) and Nov was revised down two tenths. Expectations for FOMC rate cuts edged higher. Weve gotten most of the US economic data at this point but still have a 3-yr Treasury"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:01Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Retail Sales - December [----] Headline core and control group retail sales all come in much weaker than expected with y/y the least since [----]. https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/retail-sales-december *US DEC. RETAIL SALES UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4% - BBG *US DEC. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTO UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4% *US DEC. RETAIL SALES EX AUTOS GAS UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4% https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/retail-sales-december *US DEC. RETAIL SALES UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4% - BBG *US DEC. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTO UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4% *US DEC. RETAIL SALES EX AUTOS GAS UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.4%"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:53Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"CNBC: $KO Shares of Coca-Cola down -2.1% the most since Oct (and 2nd most since April) after missing revenue estimates for the first time in [--] years. And it wasn't a small miss at -2% the largest since July 2014()"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:02Z 21.5K followers, [----] engagements
"MarketWatch: Vanda Research says retail is buying the dip in software and pretty aggressively too. $IGV the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF which is depicted in the Vanda chart was trading mostly higher after sinking on Wednesday even as rolling 1-month purchases shot higher (chart). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021965244709388524 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021965244709388524"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:10Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"CNBC notes the drop in the Dow Transport Index is due to large trucking firms becoming the latest AI casualty: A new tool called SemiCab from AI company Algorhythm Holdings has made trucking companies the latest victim of the markets AI jitters adding to the historic sell-off in software stocks and real estate companies. Theres an emerging debate around open-source automation agents such as Molt Bot that offer increased potential to automate routine back-office tasks and help equalize the technology playing field for smaller operators said Baird analyst Daniel Moore in a note. MarketWatch:"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:56Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$TLT the 20+ year Treasury ETF had its best day since Oct 10th"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:29Z 21.6K followers, 10.1K engagements
"From last night's Update we've seen a notable shift in [----] #FOMC rate expectations going from +17bps of net tightening from YE [----] on Monday (following the strong ISM Mfg survey) to -9bps of loosening Wed after ADP. Markets Update - 2/4/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/soax1FgacU https://t.co/gJEibiPwZu Markets Update - 2/4/26 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts https://t.co/soax1FgacU https://t.co/gJEibiPwZu"
X Link 2026-02-05T11:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Drilling down on CTA flows in the US indices BoA sees them as vulnerable: CTA equity positioning remains stretched with risk skewed toward unwind rather than extension as the S&P [---] and NASDAQ100 continue to trade rangebound near alltime highs. While shorterterm trend followers have likely trimmed exposure in response to this choppy price action medium and longerterm CTAs remain meaningfully long leaving positioning vulnerable to drawdowndriven derisking. Last weeks pullback and factor rotation tested that resolve with the most aggressive riskmanaged CTAs potentially beginning to unwind"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:20Z 21.6K followers, 11.3K engagements
"While #FOMC rate cut bets from the CME FedWatch tool were little changed in the half hour following NFP they deteriorated from there with March effectively now priced out for the first time but still more cuts than the recent low Jan 22nd (after the 3Q GDP final revision). These are part of each Markets Update (sub here to get these in your inbox post-US close each day): No cut is expected under Powell with March now just at 6% the least weve seen (down from 20% Tues 51% Jan 6th) April is at 22% also a new low (down from 41% Tues and from 63% Jan 6th) with the first cut in June which will be"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$AAPL -5% Thurs worst day since April after new FTC scrutiny and reports of delays in its long-planned upgrade to the Siri virtual assistant potentially pushing back the release of several highly anticipated functions"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:56Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Markets Update - 2/12/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of data and charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21226 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21226"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"As noted previously each market update contains a breakdown of the SPX by largest market cap those over 3% and those under 3% (sub here and it will hit your inbox every night: Tonight was notable with the most SPX components down more than 3% since at least Sept: Stock-by-stock flag from @finviz_com consistent in looking pretty ugly with lots of red much of it the bright kind (larger losses). Exceptions were Utilities and most of Staples along with some other pockets here and there (aircraft/defense some healthcare and consumer names). Just two of the largest [--] SPX components were higher"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:24Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen more than 12% in [----] in contrast the S&P [---] is down -0.2% for the year while the technology-heavy Nasdaq [---] gauge has lost around -2% with one of the largest divergences on Thursday when Asian stocks gained +0.75% while the SPX lost around -1.6%. That has pushed correlations between Asian and US equities based on weekly returns to [----] as of this morning the weakest level since June [----] Bloomberg-compiled data show. Some of the scares in the US are also good news in Asia particularly when thinking about what infrastructure is really needed to harness"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:50Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"BoA's Hartnett (Flow Show) repeats call for small-caps: US large-cap growth to small-cap value: elitism to populism capitalism to socialism services to manufacturing globalization to isolationism better trends for small cap on Main St not large cap on Wall St plus cost of AI arms race (hyperscaler debt issuance $170bn past [--] months vs. $30bn yearly issuance 20-24 hyperscaler spreads rising - Chart 14) plus US admin to cap 30-year yields at 5%. big secular turning point for small cap value vs large cap growth stocks (Chart 11): https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022294434826563964"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"This will continue to shift as the day progresses (why I do an end-of-day snapshot in the Markets Update) but initial move is to slightly more #FOMC cuts but still none under Powell (April just 28% well below the lows of the year). Second cut priced for Sept. Overall CME's Fedwatch tool has 61bps priced (from [--] Thurs) with 77% chance of two cuts 50% chance of three. BREAKING: CORE CPI RISES 0.3% HEADLINE RISES JUST 0.2% Economists had expected a 0.3% MoM increase in core. https://t.co/jMz0mVzszC BREAKING: CORE CPI RISES 0.3% HEADLINE RISES JUST 0.2% Economists had expected a 0.3% MoM"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:42Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch. $ROKU $EXPE $STLD $CLF $CENX $AA $WYNN $AMAT $ABNB $RIVN $BROS $DKNG $PINS $MRNA $WEN $STZ $CART Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: DraftKings Applied Materials Roku Rivian Automotive and more https://t.co/3QUHYwQPWW Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: DraftKings Applied Materials Roku Rivian Automotive and more https://t.co/3QUHYwQPWW"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:50Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"MarketWatch: The Nasdaq has fallen -1.9% so far this week and is on track for what would be its fifth-straight week in the red. According to Dow Jones Market Data this would be the tech-heavy index's longest losing streak since May [--] [----] when the index snapped a seven-week losing streak. log chart https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022335814621909274 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022335814621909274"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:43Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Wall St reactions to CPI. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-12/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates-srnd=homepage-americas&sref=E10pTi1i https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-12/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates-srnd=homepage-americas&sref=E10pTi1i"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"AAII bulls drop to lows and bears rise to highs of the year: AAII bulls (those who see higher stock prices in [--] mths blue line) fell back to 38.5% the lows of the year from 39.7% the prior week although remaining above the long-term historic average of 37.5% for a 7th week (and the 10th week in [--] (with the other week 37.44). Bulls also remained (just) above the level of the bears (who see lower stock prices in [--] mths red line) for an 11th week the longest streak since [----] but those rose to 38.1% the highs of the year from 29.0% up further from the 27.0% five weeks ago which was the least"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:50Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"CNBC: Video game makers are the latest AI casualty after the rollout of Googles Project Genie an interactive AI world generator capable of responding to real-time user interaction which has sparked concerns about the demand for traditional gaming businesses and digital experiences platforms. Big videogame stocks such as Take-Two Interactive Roblox Unity Software and Applovin have been hit for losses between -6% and -16% since Wednesday's close even though the tool remains in early stages and is being rolled out to Google AI Ultra subscribers in the U.S. $TTWO $RBLX $U $APP"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:41Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"For the week all were lower. They started off well up as of Tues' close before giving that back Wed. Thurs was the real problem with all four dropping solidly into negative territory unable to recover Fri. RUT did the least bad -0.9% DJIA -1.2% SPX -1.4% Nasdaq -2.1%. US equity indices opened with modest gains following the cool CPI led by the RUT which shot higher at one point +2% before falling off to end +1.2%. Large caps though struggled not getting any higher than +0.5% and ending little changed. https://t.co/8oEYBMlmKD US equity indices opened with modest gains following the cool CPI"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:28Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Goldman's Oppenheimer: Tariffs are still higher than before Liberation Day and their impact is inflationary; the Fed is now less likely to cut rates; the average event-driven bear market profile suggests that there may be limited upside for a long time after the rally; and valuations and market concentration concerns remain firmly in place. History is also not on the side of a further rally. Looking back at [--] other 20% drawdowns since [----] the median path from here is gradually lower for the next full year (chart)"
X Link 2025-05-17T14:00Z 21.6K followers, 29.7K engagements
"ZeroHedge: Noteworthy puke in skew. This is classical upside panic behavior where people start abandoning protection as "downside hedges only cost money bro""
X Link 2025-10-28T02:44Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Goldman: Coming into earnings this week put-call skew in the Mag7 complex inverted for the first time since December of last year (i.e. implied volatility of callstraded over puts). This phenomenon has only happened a handful of times. The move implies investors are overwhelmingly positioned for continued upside. Historically such low skew readings have tended to coincide with short-term consolidation or reversals as optimism peaks (see chart / data)"
X Link 2025-11-01T12:00Z 21.6K followers, 103.9K engagements
"I'm familiar with a number of different cycles (but certainly no expert) but I had never heard of the "Benner Cycle". From BoA's technician Paul Ciana: Sam Benner was a farmer and commodity enthusiast in the 1800s. He founded the Benner Cycle where he described a pattern of long- medium- and short-term cycles. There is a 54-year cycle and a 27-year cycle each with "mini-cycles". -The 54-year cycle includes recurring 20- 16- and 18-year cycles. We are presently in a 16-year cycle from 2019-2035. -The 27- year cycle includes recurring 7- 9- and 11-year cycles. We are presently in a 9-year cycle"
X Link 2025-12-27T12:00Z 21.6K followers, 18.8K engagements
"$ITA the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF adding another +1.9% after hitting an ATH on Friday. It's up over 12% the past month"
X Link 2026-01-05T19:55Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $INTC $CSX $CLX $AA $ISRG $COF Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Intel Clorox Capital One and more https://t.co/czoxmmhZFo Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Intel Clorox Capital One and more https://t.co/czoxmmhZFo"
X Link 2026-01-22T23:06Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$INTC Intel -17% worst day since Aug '24"
X Link 2026-01-23T21:49Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$TXN It's not just AI that's fueling the semiconductor trade today as the "grandpa" of the chip industry Texas Instruments the leading maker of analog chips (used in real world applications such as cars household and industrial equipment etc. and for that reason also considered an economic bellwether) gave a surprisingly robust forecast as customers have finally worked through an inventory glut and are seeing a rebound in their own sales. Revenue will be $4.32 billion to $4.68 billion in the first quarter the company said in a statement Tuesday. The midpoint of that range exceeded the average"
X Link 2026-01-28T16:37Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The revamped BofA Bull & Bear Indicator back up to [---] for the second time in three weeks the highest since Feb [--] an extreme bullish level back over the contrarian sell signal level which "is still in operation. The move was on strong global stock index breadth long-only bull positioning (e.g. record low 3.2% FMS cash level) and robust credit market technicals which offset global equity outflows". As a reminder Hartnett noted three weeks ago that past [--] years average 3-month return when B&B Indicator [---] ACWI flat S&P500 - 1%. All six of the components remain either Bullish or V Bullish."
X Link 2026-01-30T12:50Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Ed Yardeni notes that the trend of solid consumer spending despite slowing incomes may be due to the increasing number of Baby Boomer retirements who feed spending through savings/retirement assets: We would attribute that toretiredBaby Boomers no longer earning labor income. Our thesis explains how consumer spending remains strong despite the slowing in incomes as the Baby Boomers dip into their retirement funds. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017681790543270183 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017681790543270183"
X Link 2026-01-31T19:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$SNDK SanDisk led the SPX for the fourth time this year +15% taking it's YTD gains to. wait for it. 183%. It started the year at a $34bn market cap. It's now pushing $100bm"
X Link 2026-02-02T21:45Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"MarketWatch: "Over the last few months the market has clearly shifted from the every tech stock is a winner mindset to something far more brutal: a true winners and losers landscape" Jim Reid global head of macroeconomic research at Deutsche Bank said in a Wednesday client note. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019108441042915375 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019108441042915375"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"While software remains in the dumps with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF $IGV on pace for its seventh straight day of losses hair loss treatments are apparently very much in demand with Veradermics $MANE (great tricker) who is developing a pill for the condition up 135% from its IPO pricing of $17 despite the company having no revenue. It opened trade at $32 moving to $40 during today's session. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019138899507909063 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019138899507909063"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:00Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"While off the lows $MTUM the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF is still down -3.3% its worst drop since April"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:15Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$SNDK SanDisk down -16% today. I believe @Chartfest1 would confirm someone needs to call the Market Police. $MU -9.6% as well"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:09Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"I noted last night that we had Wed the most SPX components up 3% or more this year despite the down day in the index (with though just [--] of them $100bn in market cap) and the excellent @dailychartbook nightly email had this from great follow @SubuTrade: S&P [---] fell today but more than 70% of its stocks went Up. This bullish breadth divergence has only happened [--] times before. [--] of those instances led to a $SPX rally 3-4 days later. Some notable stats from the Markets Update (https://t.co/soax1FfCnm) as despite the down day in the SPX we had the most components up 3% or more this year (120)"
X Link 2026-02-05T11:15Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Tier1Alpha: Yesterday our CTA model flashed the largest single-day sell signal since March of last year indicating over $11b in net deleveraging. The concern with CTA flows is that once they start selling positioning can deteriorate rapidly with each subsequent decline which risks pulling markets into a selling begets even more selling scenario that has been a key feature of many mechanical crashes in the past. Although not every break in CTA positioning falls victim to this death spiral of deleveraging we view this as a clear warning sign that the structural background is deteriorating"
X Link 2026-02-06T12:12Z 21.6K followers, 20.5K engagements
"$STLA Milan-listed shares in car maker Stellantis maker of Chryslers Dodges and Jeeps are now back to where they were in the Covid-crash down -23% its largest slide ever after announcing a wide-ranging business reset costing $26 billion"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:35Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"As always a nice collection of charts/links from @TheChartReport. Thought an article linked from @AlmanacTrader was particularly interesting (click through for the link). There's a common refrain that "new Fed chairs are tested by the market." Jeff ran the numbers and the results showed it's not as bad as the refrain sounds. As Jeff notes the 3-month period seems the most troublesome as of the eight new Fed chairs since [----] half saw negative SPX returns through that period (this also happens to be the period selected by BoA's Hartnett in his post on this subject) compared with just around a"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:35Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Vanguard on why Vanguard's $VOO is gathering assets at $SPY's expense from the largest money managers: "SPY was launched as a unit investment trust which prohibits its managers from engaging in some basic operations available to other ETFs. For example the managers of SPY cannot reinvest dividends use derivatives to equitize cash or lend securities which provides the fund with a small amount of additional income. Though these practices do carry some risk its marginal. Morningstar analysts see a clear albeit small advantage for investors who choose VOO over SPY owing to its structural"
X Link 2026-02-08T21:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Tier1Alpha updates on gamma and sees a similar profile: North of the [----] strike we would expect realized volatility to begin to decline as hedging flows become less reflexive. That said the risk remains heavily skewed to the downside as any collapse in momentum will likely repeat the violent convexity we saw last week as dealer hedging flows amplify the underlying move. From the Week Ahead sent out to subscribers (https://t.co/nObl75lUwL) Sunday: BoA on SPX gamma: SPX dealer gamma was tepid this week averaging long +$3.9bn compared to the more material +$8.4bn averaged during January. As a"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:35Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
""Notional short selling across single stocks last week was the biggest on record in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. data going back to [----] the banks prime brokerage team said in a client note. Short sales outpaced long buys by a magnitude of two-to-one. "Overall hedge funds net sold US equities for a fourth week and at the heaviest rate since the so-called Liberation Day in early April. . "Information technology was the most heavily sold sector posting the second-largest dollar outflows in the past five years the Goldman team said. Software dominated the retreat accounting for about 75% of net"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:28Z 21.6K followers, 11K engagements
"First it was rare earths then it was power now it's once abundant memory chips that are the AI bottleneck pressuring device/chip makers and seeing memory prices shoot higher: "Shares of Qualcomm Inc. fell more than 8% last Thursday after the smartphone processor maker signaled memory constraints will limit phone production. Nintendo slid the most in [--] months in Tokyo the day after it warned of margin pressure from the shortages. "PC makers are among those hit the hardest. Both Lenovo Group Ltd. and Dell Technologies Inc. have dropped over 25% from their respective peaks in October. Worries"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Rubner: February seasonality is best viewed as a reflection of the mechanical shift in demand. Institutional client behavior reflects this shift as well. Institutional clients at Citadel Securities continue to use options as the primary vehicle to position into upcoming catalysts most notably earnings either to add targeted length into specific reports or to selectively hedge names and sectors where outcomes may be more binary. Tenors remain very near dated underscoring the tactical nature of this positioning. The coming weeks are defined by a high density of macro earnings and policy"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:20Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Every night the Market Update contains the end-of-day snapshot of current #FOMC rate pricing from the CME's Fedwatch tool. You can sub here and it will be in your inbox each night: As of now we're seeing modest changes after the weak retail sales report adding +3bps of cuts to [----] to take it to 60bps (so two cuts plus around 44% chance of a third cut). First cut remains priced for June 76% but April is up to 42% while the second is in Sept 65%. https://neilsethi.substack.com/ Retail Sales - December [----] Headline core and control group retail sales all come in much weaker than expected with"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:21Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"BoA (Subramanian): So far in 4Q reporting season our three-month guidance ratio (# of above- vs. below-consensus quarterly or annual EPS guides) is tracking 1.0x. weaker than 2Q-3Q but still strong considering seasonality (avg. ratio in January-February is 0.6x)"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:20Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Goldman: We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.4% in January but we see the risks as skewed to a decline: the bar for rounding down to 4.3% is not high from an unrounded 4.38% in December and the January unemployment rate appears to suffer from modestly negative residual seasonalitythe unrounded unemployment rate has declined in each of the last three Januarys. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.35% month-over-month in January reflecting positive calendar effects. The BLS's preliminary estimate of the benchmark payrolls revision indicated that cumulative payroll"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:05Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"I mentioned in the previews last night and this morning that I was interested in hearing from Cleveland Fed President Hammack who rotated onto the #FOMC panel this year (and notably is an every-other-year voter in contrast with most regional bank presidents who are every three years (other than NY and Chicago)) and has been the most hawkish member to see if she provided any scope for rate cuts and based on her speech today to the Ohio Bankers League in Columbus OH (no I didn't go) it looks like she will be a thorn in the new Fed chair's side. Hammack unlike most everyone else at the Fed says"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:51Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Major US equity indices opened little changed diverging intra-session but all fell back in the afternoon ending at or near the lows of the session w/a drop last 15mins (systematics). Just the DJIA eked out a gain +0.1%. Nasdaq led decliners -0.6% RUT and SPX were -0.3%"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:09Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $HOOD $LUFT $F $FRSH $MAT $HNGE $KLAV $NET $GILD Stocks making the biggest moves in after hours: Robinhood Lyft Ford Motor Mattel & more https://t.co/hlY1OY7SUf Stocks making the biggest moves in after hours: Robinhood Lyft Ford Motor Mattel & more https://t.co/hlY1OY7SUf"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:01Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Markets Update - 2/10/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21026 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21026"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:23Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Employer payrolls come in 2x expectations at 130k and unemployment rate declines a tenth to 4.3% (no change expected). Stocks taking it in stride SPX +0.5%. Bonds selling off a little with 10yr yield +5bps to 4.0% but just getting back yesterday's decline #FOMC rate cut bets little changed with 59bps of cuts expected this year (-1bps from Tues). First cut remains in June (76%) second in Sept (63%) 43% chance of a third. US hiring beat forecasts in January and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell suggesting the labor market continued to stabilize at the start of the year."
X Link 2026-02-11T13:54Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Lots of pre-market company news from CNBC and BBG. $MRNA $HUM $GNRC $AVTR $HOOD $LUFT $F $FRSH $MAT $HNGE $KLAV $NET $GILD $Z $KHC $UPST $TDC $LSCC $ALAB $TMUS $SHOP $WBD $NFLX $NKE $CVX $DPZ $HLT $TTE Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Lyft Moderna Cloudflare Ford Zillow Group and more https://t.co/9jrrWik1yD Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Lyft Moderna Cloudflare Ford Zillow Group and more https://t.co/9jrrWik1yD"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:06Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"As We Approach The Open. 2/11/26 Quick roundup of markets ahead of the cash opening of US equities As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading solidly higher taking in stride a very strong Nonfarm Payrolls report which showed employers added 130k jobs double expectations with broader gains than in previous months and the household survey saw the unemployment rate decline a tenth to 4.3% (no change was expected). Bond yields are up modestly while Fed rate cut bets are little changed. Weve gotten most of the US economic data at this point outside of EIA petroleum inventories but"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:21Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"I buried the lead here a little so wanted to sure I highlighted it: A faction of #FOMC voters (seems just a couple/few for now) are saying no rate cuts are needed unless the labor market deteriorates (even if inflation comes down to 2%). For now this seems to include just Hammack and Logan but Barr and even Kashkari could perhaps be among them as well giving even more sway to the "core" swing voters (Powell/Williams/Jefferson/Cook). I mentioned in the preview for Tues that Dallas Fed Pres Logan was (along with Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack) a speaker I was interested in hearing from as 1) we"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:22Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Employment Situation (NFP) - Jan [--] A "blowout" report with payrolls 2x expectations and households +528k dropping unemployment rate with total payroll income growing the most since Feb '24 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/employment-situation-nfp-jan-26 Employer payrolls come in 2x expectations at 130k and unemployment rate declines a tenth to 4.3% (no change expected). Stocks taking it in stride SPX +0.5%. Bonds selling off a little with 10yr yield +5bps to 4.0% but just getting back yesterday's decline #FOMC rate cut bets https://t.co/9ZMVPqYym8"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:13Z 21.6K followers, 12.5K engagements
"MarketWatch: State Street's investor risk appetite measure* fell to zero or neutral by the end of January even as investors' allocation to equities are at the highest since the great financial crisis nearly [--] year ago. "January was notable for a strong pick-up in institutional risk exposure towards mid-month but the combination of uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and liquidity concerns across certain markets drove a more moderate risk stance as we approached the end of the month" said State Street in an email shared with MarketWatch. "That said overall allocation exposure to"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:40Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"If you grabbed the falling knife you only had a short window before the selling resumed in the $IGV software ETF down -2.7% today"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:56Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $CSCO $MCD $ROL $FSLY $APP $PAYC Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cisco Systems McDonald's AppLovin and more https://t.co/HgbyLYS2wW Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cisco Systems McDonald's AppLovin and more https://t.co/HgbyLYS2wW"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:20Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Markets Update - 2/11/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21126 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21126"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:31Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
""supply of existing homes at the current sales rate start the year at [---] the highest for any January since [----] up from [---] a year earlier." charts from Calculated Risk substack: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-5f1 Existing Home Sales - Jan [----] Existing home sales see largest drop in four years to near the lowest sales pace since [----] likely impacted by Jan storms. https://t.co/3CEv5LT3sN https://t.co/KTLme1Ax0T https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-5f1 Existing Home Sales - Jan [----] Existing home sales see largest"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Good call from @C_Barraud looking for downside surprise. Jan [----] Existing home sales see largest drop in four years to near the lowest sales pace since [----] likely impacted by Jan storms. https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/existing-home-sales-jan-2026 U.S. Existing Home Sales #Preview After reviewing additional local/regional data and industry feedback I still expect a downside surprise âš vs. consensus (4.15Me SAAR). âž¡ Key headwinds: Higher mortgage rates Stretched affordability January weather disruptions https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/existing-home-sales-jan-2026 U.S. Existing Home Sales"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:34Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/trucking-and-logistics-stocks-tumble-on-release-of-ai-freight-scaling-tool.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/trucking-and-logistics-stocks-tumble-on-release-of-ai-freight-scaling-tool.html"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:56Z 21.6K followers, [---] engagements
"And we're seeing continued weakness in real-estate servicing companies. The 2-day drop in $CBRE rivals that in March [----]. CNBC notes the drop in the Dow Transport Index is due to large trucking firms becoming the latest AI casualty: A new tool called SemiCab from AI company Algorhythm Holdings has made trucking companies the latest victim of the markets AI jitters adding to the historic sell-off https://t.co/1mtj89CzKS CNBC notes the drop in the Dow Transport Index is due to large trucking firms becoming the latest AI casualty: A new tool called SemiCab from AI company Algorhythm Holdings"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:01Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/cisco-gives-strong-sales-forecast-in-latest-sign-of-ai-inroadssref=E10pTi1i https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/cisco-gives-strong-sales-forecast-in-latest-sign-of-ai-inroadssref=E10pTi1i"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:13Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Like Wed US equity indices opened higher and were quickly lower but Thurs the losses were deeper and broader and instead of bouncing indices traded flat to finish at or near the lows all down at least -1% w/Nasdaq & RUT -2%"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:18Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $AMAT $ABNB $TOST $RIVN $BROS $CART $DKNG $PINS $COIN $ANET $BIO $FROG Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Rivian Applied Materials Airbnb Pinterest DraftKings & more https://t.co/vgbrq7h8GC Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Rivian Applied Materials Airbnb Pinterest DraftKings & more https://t.co/vgbrq7h8GC"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:16Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@fit_businessman So momentum I don't think matters but you're right if volatility rises it will cause some selling on its own (why BoA models CTA selling in even a big up tape). But we don't get the "real" selling unless we see a big drop"
X Link 2026-01-31T19:16Z 21.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Yardeni: The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has jumped well above zero in recent days to [----] (chart blue line). The Fed eased late last year because the labor market looked weak. But recent unemployment insurance claims data suggest that the employment situation might be improving. (Friday's employment report has been delayed because of the federal government shutdown.) The CESI suggests that the 10-year Treasury bond yield is likely to move higher in the coming days. Yardeni: We are still targeting the S&P [---] at [----] by the end of this year and [-----] by the end of the decade. The"
X Link 2026-02-04T12:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The Week Ahead - 2/8/26 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/the-week-ahead-2826 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/the-week-ahead-2826"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:36Z 21.6K followers, 34K engagements
"BoA (Subramanian): Layoff mentions in transcripts have shown only a minor uptick this quarter with employment service companies citing little evidence of AI materially weakening the labor market so far"
X Link 2026-02-09T11:40Z 21.6K followers, 13.6K engagements
"JPM trading desk thoughts on NFP: Wow. This is the type of print that the market had been looking forward to once we started to see the economic data inflect higher toward the end of last year. Yesterdays Retail Sales looks like a bad fat finger. There are a ton of superlatives that could be said about todays print but the keys are: This print is supportive to risk assets; The Cyclical Rally / Reflation / Global Reboot trade is back on; If we see AI / TMT / Mag7 reclaim its spot atop the leaderboard then US outperformance vs. ROW should be material; This refocused inflation as the primary"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:00Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Nomura's McElligott: In the US Equities / Vol -space Dispersion of epic proportions remains the theme YTD This is on account of . profound thematic and factor-rebalancing (Value over Growth Cyclicals over Seculars Defensives / Low Beta / Bond Proxies over Vol) and sector bifurcation (previously left-for-dead Energy / Mats / Staples / Industrials / REITS / Utes as suddenly the S&Ps best sectors YTD while prior multi-year AI / Mag7 leadership from Comm Svc and Info Tech DRAG / LAG S&P broad Index returns YTD) hence realized Correlation remains utterly crushed (1m rCorr [---] 3m rCorr 9.3)"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:00Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"BTW I heard @lisaabramowicz1 mention it on Surveillance yesterday but not many others. Citi nailed the headline NFP number. Congrats. Note they still see three #FOMC cuts this year. #NFP PREVIEW: January US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 68000; Unemployment Rate Seen at 4.4% Take A Look At What The Top Economists Are Forecasting In Today's US Jobs Report $USDJPY $DXY https://t.co/5vUhGiS0Wv #NFP PREVIEW: January US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 68000; Unemployment Rate Seen at 4.4% Take A Look At What The Top Economists Are Forecasting In Today's US Jobs Report $USDJPY $DXY"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:27Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"McElligott continues: beyond the singles vs singles dynamic in the performance spread charts.look at the Average S&P500 Stock (Absolute) Move vs the the Index Absolute Move Just absolutely wild What is it showing you That over the past [--] month (Jan [--] th through Feb 10th) the SPX is unch at 0.0%but get this.the average S&P [---] stock saw an ABSOLUTE MOVE of 10.8% over the same window I initially called BS toobut look at the top movers even within the LARGEST [--] SPX STOCKS since mid Jan () Essentially were seeing stunningly large and divergent moves across Single-Name Equities and their Vol but"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:47Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"BBG: $NDX is on track for its 5th -1% or greater decline in the past [--] sessions"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:30Z 21.6K followers, 11.2K engagements
"$CSCO -12.3% worst day since May '22 despite raising sales guidance above expectations after margin forecast came in light. No mercy"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:13Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$XLF SPX Financials Sector ETF down -3.5% last two sessions worst since April"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:38Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Goldman bumps their Jan core PCE expectation (subject to PPI which we won't get until the end of the month) a tenth to 0.40% m/m "partly because the electronics componentswhich saw large increasesreceive more weight in PCE than CPI while the used cars componentwhich saw a large declinereceives less weight in PCE than CPI." A 0.40% increase in core PCE would correspond to a year-over-year rate of +3.05%. Additionally we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.30% in January or increased 2.81% from a year earlier. We estimate that market-based core PCE rose 0.35% in January. CPI -"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:02Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Worst week for the SPX since Nov. For the week all were lower. They started off well up as of Tues' close before giving that back Wed. Thurs was the real problem with all four dropping solidly into negative territory unable to recover Fri. RUT did the least bad -0.9% DJIA -1.2% SPX -1.4% Nasdaq -2.1%. https://t.co/dDAXuXX98g For the week all were lower. They started off well up as of Tues' close before giving that back Wed. Thurs was the real problem with all four dropping solidly into negative territory unable to recover Fri. RUT did the least bad -0.9% DJIA -1.2% SPX -1.4% Nasdaq -2.1%."
X Link 2026-02-13T21:29Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$XLU SPX Utilities ETF up +6.95% the past four sessions. That's the best since Apr 2020()"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:45Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Markets Update - 2/13/26 Detailed update on US equity and Treasury markets US economic data the Fed select commodities and a look at the upcoming day with lots of charts https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21326 https://neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-update-21326"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:45Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"MarketWatch: $DJT The Dow Jones Transportation Index is down -5.7% its worst day since April with all [--] components trading lower and its three worst-performing components all on track for their worst one-day declines on record. Those three components C.H. Robinson Worldwide Landstar System and Expeditors International of Washington all freight and logistics names. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022005297527546142 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022005297527546142"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:50Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Tier1Alpha says as we approach CPI that we might see a more volatile move than we otherwise would as "SPX dealers have shifted back negative gamma territory which means the conditions for higher volatility are back in place. In this environment market makers with negative gamma exposure will need to sell index futures into weakness and buy futures into strength to stay as directionally neutral as possible. Since these hedging flows align with the underlying trend they can exacerbate price swings and ultimately drive volatility higher." They note the lower part of their trading range (which"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:30Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"BoA: Consumers will soon benefit from OBBBA stimulus to the tune of $135-140bn (0.6% of disposable income). Last years shutdown should also boost 1Q growth by 0.5-1pp. All this sets the stage for front-loaded GDP growth in [----]. But it appears that consensus forecasts are not accounting for these factors: they are almost flat across the four quarters of this year https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020833810414280825 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020833810414280825"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:15Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"MarketWatch: Michael Kramer at Mott Capital says the rally in $XLB the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR exchange traded fund which now sits at a record high on optimism on data center construction metals shortages and heightened investor demand for gold and silver has gotten "extremely overextended on technical grounds." It is "now showing a weekly RSI relative strength index of [--] and is trading above its upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. Both are classic signs of an overbought condition suggesting the sector may be stretched in the near term" says Kramer."
X Link 2026-02-12T16:59Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
"As might be expected breadth according to CME Cash Indices (uses futures) saw one of the worst days of the year so far with [--] of [--] sectors higher (still just the 6th day this year with less than six higher but half have come in the past week) in the three big dividend payers on the back of falling rates (Utilities Staples and RE the first two up over 1% (Staples for a second session)). On the other side seven sectors down more than -1% (from two Wed) led by Tech Energy and Financials all down -2% or more. Financials was after finishing last Wed -1.5%. So just two sectors (RE & Health Care)"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:44Z 21.6K followers, [----] engagements
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