[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @neilksethi Neil Sethi Neil Sethi posts on X about stocks, spx, nasdaq, fed the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX +20% - X Month XXXXXXXXX +8.90% - X Months XXXXXXXXX +171% - X Year XXXXXXXXX +1,283% ### Mentions: XXX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/posts_active)  - X Week XXX -XXXX% - X Month XXX +18% - X Months XXXXX +16% - X Year XXXXX +125% ### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/followers)  - X Week XXXXXX +2.10% - X Month XXXXXX +10% - X Months XXXXXX +166% - X Year XXXXXX +683% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #1845 [stocks](/list/stocks) #2277 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) #7131 [exchanges](/list/exchanges) #170 [countries](/list/countries) XXXX% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies) XXXX% [social networks](/list/social-networks) XXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [stocks](/topic/stocks) #880, [spx](/topic/spx) #5, [nasdaq](/topic/nasdaq) #15, [fed](/topic/fed) #52, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #756, [gdp](/topic/gdp) 1.21%, [$dxy](/topic/$dxy) #2, [$tsla](/topic/$tsla) #244, [$spx](/topic/$spx) #5, [japan](/topic/japan) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@dailychartbook](/creator/undefined) [@sethcl](/creator/undefined) [@sonusvarghese](/creator/undefined) [@cnbc](/creator/undefined) [@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@callumthomas](/creator/undefined) [@marlincapital](/creator/undefined) [@mlsreformuk](/creator/undefined) [@cbarraud](/creator/undefined) [@myalphaport6688](/creator/undefined) [@saltydocem](/creator/undefined) [@digimoncba](/creator/undefined) [@c_barraud](/creator/undefined) [@rev_cap](/creator/undefined) [@pboockvar](/creator/undefined) [@thechartreport](/creator/undefined) [@ryandetrick](/creator/undefined) [@alexlongley1](/creator/undefined) [@ft](/creator/undefined) [@fernavid](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)](/topic/$gld) [iShares BTC Trust (IBIT)](/topic/$ibit) [IBM (IBM)](/topic/ibm) [Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT)](/topic/$srpt) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Limitus (LMT)](/topic/$lmt) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Intel Corporation (INTC)](/topic/$intc) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)](/topic/$enph) [SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG)](/topic/$sedg) [Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)](/topic/$moh) [Texas Instruments (TXN)](/topic/$txn) [GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)](/topic/$gev) [NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)](/topic/$nxpi) [Blackstone, Inc. (BX)](/topic/$bx) [Palantir (PLTR)](/topic/$pltr) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [T-Mobile (TMUS)](/topic/$tmus) [Deckers Outdoor, Corp. (DECK)](/topic/$deck) [Samsunspor Fan Token (SAM)](/topic/$sam) [Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX)](/topic/$fix) [Mario Coin (COIN)](/topic/$coin) [Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)](/topic/$nsc) [Convex Finance (CVX)](/topic/$cvx) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [BitMine (BMNR)](/topic/$bmnr) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [UNICREDITO SPA UNSP/ADR (UNCRY)](/topic/$uncry) [Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX)](/topic/$fcx) [MGM Resorts International (MGM)](/topic/$mgm) [Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)](/topic/$csco) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "Consistent with the declining volatility expectations as expressed in the VIX and to some extent the VVIX Goldman notes that the daily implied moves for the FOMC meeting and upcoming ISM/Payrolls have dropped to low levels relative to history. There is also limited volatility priced in for early August suggesting investors are no longer focused on Tariff negotiation catalysts"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949902677263208834) 2025-07-28 18:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2078 engagements "Ex-US its overall a light week although we do get the ECBs policy decision on Thursday where a hold is widely expected but what they might hint at about timing of another rate cut is less clear. There are also a few other central bank decisions (Turkey Hungary Nigeria Russia among others). In economic data well get flash PMIs Canada retail sales ECB lending bank lending survey EU consumer confidence Germanys Ifo business sentiment UK public finance data South Korea and Taiwan trade data and GDP and inflation prints from a number of Lat Ams largest economies among other reports. Well also get"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947114052477690116) 2025-07-21 01:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1969 engagements "Jeffries: That the big beautiful bill has now been passed by Congress.without a revolt in the Treasury bond market has been a positive US equities have been celebrating and again with good reason. Still the passage of the bill like last quarters Moody's downgrade will probably mark a chapter in the history books on fiscal deterioration and the resulting decline of the US dollar paper standard. But for now the weaker US dollar and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) area positive for equities in the continuing absence of a Treasury bond revolt"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945913895182647616) 2025-07-17 18:30:00 UTC 12.7K followers, XXX engagements "As we've seen most of the last several weeks Vol Control is modeled by BoA to be a buyer of equities Monday joined with some light CTA buying as well. Risk parity whose equity allocation is by far the lightest of the group continues to sit on the equity sidelines"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949605972596469965) 2025-07-27 23:01:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1534 engagements "Its a lighter week on the US economic calendar with the headliners flash PMIs new and existing home sales durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. Well also get leading and coincident indicators (the latter are more important even though the former get the headlines) the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (has a good correlation with GDP) some more regional bank PMIs and the other weekly reports (mortgage applications and petroleum and nat gas inventories)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947084106589724871) 2025-07-21 00:00:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1282 engagements "Markets Update - 7/22/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947782895357006055) 2025-07-22 22:16:44 UTC 12.7K followers, 4089 engagements "BoA says last week clients returned to selling of US equities for the first fourth week in five at -$1.4bn. Clients sold single stocks after buying the prior week and continued to buy ETFs for the 14th straight week. Outflows were led by institutional clients -$1.9bn who have been net sellers in XX out of the past XX weeks. Hedge funds were also net sellers (-$0.4bn) reversing the buys from the previous two weeks +$0.4bn. Buying continued to be led by corporates as they exit the blackout window although there was a slight deceleration to +$1.1bn from at +$1.2bn but up from a low of +$0.6bn"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1950170322558124274) 2025-07-29 12:23:31 UTC 12.7K followers, 2025 engagements "BoA on EPFR flows: Foreign buying of US assets in 2025 annualizing to $138bn the 2nd largest year ever with a $547bn inflow decade-to-date"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1933494308017213622) 2025-06-13 11:59:00 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements "In a sign of the times Goldman adds a "Speculative Trading Indicator" constructed from trading volumes "of US public equity dollar trading value attributable to X unprofitable stocks X penny stocks and X stocks with EV/sales multiples greater than 10x". Unsurprisingly they find it shows a recent increase in high-risk activity within the US equity market. Specifically during the past month the share of trading activity taking place in each of those three groups of stocks has ranked in the top quintile of activity since 1990"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948695976455098665) 2025-07-25 10:45:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 19.9K engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $INTC $DECK $BYD $VRSN $NEM $SAM $EW $MHK $FIX $COUR"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948506679160508478) 2025-07-24 22:12:48 UTC 12.6K followers, 2909 engagements "BoA (Hartnett): the return of US exceptionalism has not coincided with return of US dollar bullquite the opposite; $DXY depreciating further to below XX would be confirmation asset allocators need to execute phase II of dollar debasement.up allocation to commodities & emerging markets (phase I was gold/crypto)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949439630014902669) 2025-07-27 12:00:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 1303 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $NFLX $CVX $HES $SRPT $UNP $NSC $MMM $AXP $IBKR $SLB $SCHW $COIN $CRCL $HOOD $GLXY $BMNR $HBAN $WAL $GSK $RBGLY $META $ALV $RF"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946189244994642326) 2025-07-18 12:44:09 UTC 12.6K followers, 2176 engagements "Goldman: Total inflows of humanitarian and other immigrants remained stable at an annualized pace of 0.3mn in May and June. But total outflows continued to rise reaching an annualized pace of 0.7mn in June driven by both voluntary departures and deportations. While the number of deportations has risen noticeably since the beginning of this year and is now moderately above the 0.4mn seen during the first Trump administration we expect legal and capacity constraints to limit further increases"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947718287162314765) 2025-07-22 18:00:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 3631 engagements "1-Day VIX continued to remain subdued just off the lows of the year at XXX consistent with traders implying a XXXX% move in the SPX Monday (might be a little more with the EU/US trade deal we'll see when futures open here shortly)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949585587943493636) 2025-07-27 21:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1299 engagements "Copper (/HG) futures fell back sharply today at one point down over X% before cutting that to -XXX% still the worst day since April. Not sure the reason (perhaps thinking copper tariffs might be watered down). The reversal though comes after it met its measured target (I noted last week it might be time for a consolidation) and now has the MACD crossing to sell longs while the RSI falls from over to under XX often a signal of a consolidation. #oott"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949943216670748763) 2025-07-28 21:21:05 UTC 12.7K followers, 1304 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $SBUX $AES $UNH $SEDG $MBLY $WPP $BE $UNCRY $CRBZY $VRNA $JPM $AAPL $OMC $IPG $ENPH $FCX $PENG $RYTM"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942927308957900823) 2025-07-09 12:42:22 UTC 12.5K followers, 1929 engagements "BoA (Hartnett): Historic examples of central bank governor dismissals sparse but always driven by policy conflict over rates currencies or corruption. In every case dismissal coincided with sharp FX declines"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946595888253866389) 2025-07-19 15:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 8203 engagements "BBG: Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says that from a technical point of view he doesn't see "frothiness" when looking down-cap from the heavy-weights in the S&P XXX and Nasdaq indices. We believe that this bull market is broadening out in terms of participation he said. He points to the NYSE advance-decline line a popular indicator that tracks the number of securities rising minus the number falling on the exchange each day which is hitting fresh highs"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948473007363576296) 2025-07-24 19:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1391 engagements "$UNH United Health almost cut in half since Apr 11th. That's $260bn in market cap"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1922388112518304133) 2025-05-13 20:26:56 UTC 12.7K followers, 1467 engagements "Markets Update - 7/23/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948148429894623729) 2025-07-23 22:29:15 UTC 12.6K followers, 4179 engagements "Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also highest close since Oct '21. The index "jumped XXX% on Wednesday topping a previous year-to-date high hit on March XX. Kuaishou Technology Baidu Inc. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the top performers in the gauge. Hong Kongs benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 1.6%. boosted by easing Sino-American trade tensions and gains in heavyweight tech shares." "Investors are also looking to the countrys Politburo meeting later this month to set the tone for policy measures in the second half of the year. Markets have reacted positively to recent moves by"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947995855279022311) 2025-07-23 12:22:58 UTC 12.7K followers, 2509 engagements "Mike Wilson Morgan Stanleys chief stock-market strategist says he now is leaning more toward his bull case of 7200 in XX mths for the S&P XXX based on earnings per share of $XXX and a forward share price to earnings multiple of XXXX. Wilson says this view is grounded on a more resilient earnings and cash flow backdrop than previously expected an improvement driven in part by AI adoption dollar weakness cash tax savings from the Trump administrations One Big Beautiful Bill Act and pent up demand for many sectors in the market. With private sector wage growth in decline and AI adoption"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949823408356594014) 2025-07-28 13:25:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 14.5K engagements "BBG: Options trading is pointing to more losses for the $USD next week with a gauge of risk reversals signaling declines for the week and coming months. With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powells position seemingly secure the dollar may find near-term support. But the greenbacks downtrend remains firmly in place with eventual rate cuts poised to supplant the political risk premium as the dominant headwind. - Brendan Fagan Macro Strategist Markets Live"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949117505370550312) 2025-07-26 14:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1741 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $TSLA $GEO $CXW $MOH $SEDG $STZ $WNS $CGEMY $SHEL $MGM $AAPL $NSANY $NFLX $WOLF"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942214034184343687) 2025-07-07 13:28:04 UTC 12.6K followers, 1930 engagements "The uncertainty surrounding Ishiba's future (and potential increased gov't spending) along with the finalizing of a US/Japan trade deal and BoJ Deputy Gov Uchida saying the deal means "likelihood has risen" for a rate hike all pressuring Japan's JGB sovereign bond market with a 40-yr bond auction today seeing its weakest demand since 2011. The bid-to-cover ratio a measure of demand came in at XXXXX compared to XXXXX at the previous auction. The bonds yielded XXXXX% the highest on record. Bond yields Wednesday rose across the curve"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947994682421649790) 2025-07-23 12:18:18 UTC 12.5K followers, 1355 engagements "Some pre-market corp news from CNBC & BBG. $RDDT $TDD $HOOD $APP $CSCO $DE $BCS $TAP $SONY $KHC $BROS $MGM $UL $AAPL"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1890040682452340982) 2025-02-13 14:09:48 UTC 12.6K followers, 1005 engagements ""The recent rise in speculative trading activity has accompanied one of the sharpest short squeezes on record. Since early April through July 24th the GS Most Short basket (GSCBMSAL) has rallied by over XX% outperforming the equal-weight S&P XXX by roughly XX pp. During the last XX years concentrated shorts have rallied more sharply only in 1999-2000 and 2020-2021 which are also the only periods in recent decades when speculative trading activity has exceeded current levels.""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949449692544377303) 2025-07-27 12:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2562 engagements "Goldman: The investor risk appetite that has boosted speculative trading activity has also contributed to the recent upturn in equity capital markets activity. The median US IPO in June rose by XX% in its first trading day the best month since early 2024 and a top decile return relative to the past X decades"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949102404437422084) 2025-07-26 13:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1215 engagements "In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index shot +2% higher to the best close since June 2021 following the Japan/US trade deal announced Tuesday. Major regional equity indices also ended mostly higher led by Japan's Nikkei (+3.5%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+1.6%) pushed to the highest close since Oct '21 as did the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. Japan's Nikkei: +3.5% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.6% China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH India's Sensex: +0.7% South Korea's Kospi: +0.4% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Trump on social media"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948006452968190257) 2025-07-23 13:05:05 UTC 12.5K followers, 2120 engagements "As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are again mixed with large cap indices little changed while the Russell 2000 is up modestly premarket after its worst session in over a week Thursday. No data or other economic events scheduled later this morning or afternoon. Elsewhere bond yields are edging higher again and the dollar is as well. Crude and nat gas are also modestly higher while gold bitcoin and copper are lower. $SPX +0.1% $NDX UNCH $RUT +0.4%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948736127998828683) 2025-07-25 13:24:33 UTC 12.5K followers, 1374 engagements "MarketWatch: Data from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage shows that quantitative strategies are suffering their worst drawdown since the end of 2023. So-called systematic managers (that trade through Goldman) have accumulated a XXX% loss since the beginning of June to take their year-to-date performance down to a still positive XXX% on the year. The bank's analysts attribute the decline to a momentum sell-off a rally in high-beta and high-volatility companies and some unwinding of crowded trades. Bruno Schneller managing partner at Erlen Capital Management a Swiss asset manager says recent moves"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948065321803202664) 2025-07-23 16:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 9655 engagements "JPM: Hedge Fund short covering last week was a X standard deviation event (so in the 99.7th %ile). (via ZeroHedge)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949552872863183132) 2025-07-27 19:30:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 60.5K engagements "@C_Barraud @KobeissiLetter @Callum_Thomas @Marlin_Capital @SethCL CB I think you have the wrong link for the first post. S/B this one:"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946673404238508166) 2025-07-19 20:48:01 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $CDNS $NUE $WHR $WU $RMBS $TLRY"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949955051276882220) 2025-07-28 22:08:07 UTC 12.7K followers, 3953 engagements "2Q GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed (whose GDP tracker was right in line in its 3Q & 4Q XX first ests of GDP (and just a tenth off for 2Q) but who was -XXX% too low for 1Q 25) falls to XXXX% from XXX% now the least since May 27th with minor adjustments lower to many components led by net exports and consumption (both around a tenth in terms of their contribution: the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from XXX percent to XXX percent. Here's the new makeup of the GDP contributions (and changes from the last release July 9th): Net exports = +3.31%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945890993561301494) 2025-07-17 16:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1463 engagements "BBG reports that a hold by the ECB in September now looks like the baseline according to "people familiar with the matter." President Christine Lagarde on Thursday said she and her colleagues are now in a wait-and-see mode with inflation at the X% goal and the economy performing in line with or better than expectations. Following those comments markets pared bets on a September rate cut. They now put the chance of such a move at about XX% versus XX% before Lagarde spoke. Mark Wall chief European economist at Deutsche Bank suggested the ECBs easing cycle may now be over. Markets are not far"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949047041633460327) 2025-07-26 10:00:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements "@myalphaport6688 Well buy the dip has been the place to be since the pandemic so retail has done well. Hedge funds have made money but not as much as retail. Institutions a little worse. Corporates have been steady buyers and have gotten better about buying more in declines"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948123309549203667) 2025-07-23 20:49:26 UTC 12.5K followers, XX engagements "$CHTR Shares of Charter Communications plunged XX% on Friday putting the stock on pace for its worst day ever after the company reported losing 117000 broadband and 80000 video subscribers in the second quarter"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948833129692852289) 2025-07-25 19:50:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1195 engagements "RRP remains around $140bn which indicates sufficient liquidity in the system but note this was supposed to build with the Treasury drawing down the TGA. The fact that it hasnt leaves little cushion when the debt ceiling is raised (currently they need around $200bn in extra issuance)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1924539310973292878) 2025-05-19 18:55:02 UTC 12.6K followers, 2567 engagements "@sonusvarghese As I understand it you don't have to see any deterioration in the goods/services balance if the FDI is used to fund domestic investment or absorbed via increased savings"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949559767346622590) 2025-07-27 19:57:24 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements "Ex-US its a heavy week as well with central bank decisions from Japan Canada and Brazil where holds are expected in addition to a number of other countries including South Africa Chile Ghana Pakistan and Colombia where cuts are expected. Well also get a number of key reports from EU GDP and CPI to global final manufacturing PMIs and a number of employment reports across DM in addition to the US. Interestingly though like in the US Monday is quiet"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949663601997812034) 2025-07-28 02:50:00 UTC 12.7K followers, XXX engagements "The firehose of US economic data starts Tuesday with June JOLTS goods trade balance and wholesale inventories July Conf Bd consumer confidence and May home prices. No Fed speakers with the blackout but we will get the final of our Treasury auctions in the 7yr after the two today. The crush of earnings this week will accelerate Tuesday with XX SPX reporters of which eight are $100bn in market cap (V PG UNH MRK BKNG BA AMT SBUX (from largest to smallest)). Ex-US DM highlights are ECB inflation expectations UK consumer borrowing and BRC shop prices and Spanish 2Q GDP. In EM highlights are a"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949984466929139791) 2025-07-29 00:05:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 34.8K engagements "JPM: Market liquidity conditions have seen notable improvement for US Equities. They also note that "low realized macro volatility has helped to induce low market volatility in conjunction with other factors such as retail investors and corporate buybacks continuing to act as a backstop to drawdowns in Equities as well as economic and financial leverage overall remaining relatively contained and thus far not served to amplify these shocks.""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948412609998266745) 2025-07-24 15:59:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1083 engagements "Goldman: Recent US dollar weakness is a tailwind to S&P XXX EPS but a smaller factor than many investors assume. The S&P XXX in aggregate generates XX% of its revenues overseas roughly unchanged relative to last year. In our macro model a XX% weakening of the US dollar is associated with a boost of roughly 2-3% to S&P XXX EPS all else equal. and investors typically do not reward FX-driven sales beats the way they reward constant-currency beats (Exhibit 5)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949429559893356576) 2025-07-27 11:20:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 15K engagements "In Europe the benchmark #STOXX XXX is edging lower -XXX% as of 8.40am ET remaining in the middle of its range since early May. Major European indices are also trading lower. STOXX Europe 600: -XXX% Germany's DAX: -XXX% U.K.'s FTSE 100: -XXX% France's CAC 40: -XXX% Italy's FTSE MIB: -XXX% Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Stocks moved lower after the Financial Times reported Friday that President Donald Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of XX% to XX% in talks with the European Union. The report also said that Trump would be content to keep auto sector"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947277527136809091) 2025-07-21 12:48:35 UTC 12.6K followers, 1616 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $VG $NFE $LNG $NEXT $ETN $CEG $KTOS $LMT $RTX $ASML $STM $STLA $PD $CSCO $PKI $TSLA $SSNGY $TXN $VWAPY $HEINY $SRPT $AMZN $XOM $CVX $PDD $GEV $NKE"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949813765043601815) 2025-07-28 12:46:42 UTC 12.7K followers, 2827 engagements "Enjoy the weekend. After a busy week well get a lighter one next week before we get one of those weeks to end the month (a packed schedule of economic and earnings reports and central bank policy decisions along with the Aug 1st scheduled implementation date for Pres Trumps new tariffs). For next week though its lighter on the economic calendar with the headliners flash PMIs new and existing home sales durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. The Fed will be in their blackout period (it appears Chair Powell will be making opening remarks at a banking conference but given hes a stickler"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946555706003320917) 2025-07-19 13:00:20 UTC 12.6K followers, 1718 engagements "BoA on EPFR flows week through Wed: Bonds: $25.9bn inflow biggest since Jun20 ($25.9bn) across the board inflows (IG $10.3bn EM debt $5.7bn Treasuries $3.9bn HY bonds $2.4bn)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948745405212016796) 2025-07-25 14:01:25 UTC 12.5K followers, 1451 engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $UAL $SRPT $MCRI $AA $AIR $SLG"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945604260084727973) 2025-07-16 21:59:37 UTC 12.6K followers, 2594 engagements "$ITB On the back of a +16% gain in the largest homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. $DHI as well as a +12% gain in PulteGroup Inc. $PHM after earnings the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF $ITB is up nearly +8% it's best day since Nov '22 to a 5-mth high. "Many of the biggest builders in the country continue to surprise Wall Street to the upside with how well they are running their businesses in this environment John Burns CEO of John Burns Research and Consulting told MarketWatch. In other words the results werent as bad as investors were expecting namely gross margins and the expectations around"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947746469819388403) 2025-07-22 19:52:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1100 engagements "MS estimates that there will need to be $2.9tn of global data center spend through 2028 including hardware and infrastructure. By 2028 data center spend alone ($900bn) will roughly equal 2024 total SPX cap ex spend ($950bn). They estimate about ($1.4tn) will be financed by hyperscaler cash flows with the remainder ($1.5tn) needing to be financed through credit markets"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948348688868237732) 2025-07-24 11:45:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2722 engagements "BoA says "assuming that tariffs are sustained at the announced levels they could add up to $650bn (2pp of GDP) to federal revenues. This would make a large dent in the deficit. However we view this as a clear upper bound as it does not account for several factors that would diminish the deficit reduction from higher tariffs." First they note "businesses and households are likely to substitute from higher priced imports towards domestic producers and/or towards countries with relatively lower tariffs. The latter dominated during the 2018/2019 trade war as imports from China fell sharply in"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1908489802472972419) 2025-04-05 12:00:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 2358 engagements "NY Feds 2Q GDP Nowcast (as a reminder they were way off for 1Q seeing +2.6% vs the actual 1st est of -XXX% (although they were closer in most other estimates and that will be closer after revisions)) edged back to XXXX% from XXXX% after its first improvement in a month the previous week still though well below the XXXX% from when it started its tracking Feb 28th). It's now the lowest of the GDP trackers I track. As a reminder the model is dynamic and so adjusts in real time as data evolves but parameter revisions didnt result in any changes"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949529971677954295) 2025-07-27 17:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 4128 engagements "Long term inflation expectations as measured by the 5-yr 5-yr forward rate (exp'd inflation starting in X yrs over the following X yrs) which continues to be referenced by Fed members (including Jerome Powell (although I don't think he mentioned it at the June meeting)) as evidence for long-term inflation expectations remaining well anchored jumped to XXXX% Friday the joint highest (with October) in a year pushing towards the upper end of its 4-year range so perhaps starting to show a bit more concern about longer term inflation pressures (its now a little above its 20-yr average). That said"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949560170293727369) 2025-07-27 19:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 3739 engagements "BoA (who as a reminder was just a tenth high for 1Q XX GDP vs the 1st estimate right on for 4Q XX GDP & two tenths high for 3Q) left their 2Q GDP tracker at XXX% as of Thursday despite a small downgrade after the home sales reports"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949469573817770008) 2025-07-27 13:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1113 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GM $LMT $KO $NXPI $STLD $MEDP $CSX $NSC $DHI $PHM $NOC $ZION $ACI $AGYS $CALX $AZN $SNY $QS $SRPT $PMI $SHW"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947639493697188146) 2025-07-22 12:46:55 UTC 12.6K followers, 2949 engagements "As RenMac notes one negative from the #NFP report is permanent job losers (those who lost their job involuntarily and have no expectation of regaining it) rose to 1.92mn in April the highest since Oct XX. It was 1.28mn in Feb 2020"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1918322084700406270) 2025-05-02 15:10:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2957 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DAL $EWZ $KLG $AMD $TREX $BYRN $PTC $HELE $BX $WPP $MP $UAL $AAL $ALK $LUV $ROKU $RARE $MREO $AMD $CAG"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1943292935908249805) 2025-07-10 12:55:15 UTC 12.5K followers, 2460 engagements "Goldman: Even a one-time price increase will eat into real income at a time when consumer spending trends already look shaky. Although nominal core retail sales rebounded in June we estimate that real personal consumption has now stagnated on net for six months which rarely happens outside of recession. Housing activity has also slowed sharply with overall construction spending falling faster over the past year than at any time since the post-2008 housing bust. The weakness in consumption and housing has pushed down our tracking estimate for H1 real GDP growth to XXX% about a percentage point"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948785315130605949) 2025-07-25 16:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 2594 engagements "BoA on EPFR data through Wed: European equities see 5th week of outflows ($2.7bn) but still on pace for $110bn inflowbiggest since '15 and would be only second annual inflow since 2017"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1923339143603527708) 2025-05-16 11:26:00 UTC 12.7K followers, XXX engagements "MarketWatch: Hedge funds successfully negotiated a volatile second quarter and expanded total funds managed to $XXXX trillion their highest figure yet. The latest HFR Global Hedge Fund Industry Report released Friday registered the seventh consecutive quarterly increment with investors committing $XXX billion of fresh capital to the asset class. In all the first half of 2025 saw the strongest inflows into hedge funds for a decade. Both asset and performance gains were widespread across every strategy sub-strategy and cross-section of exposure as managers demonstrated tactical flexibility""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946233500971008402) 2025-07-18 15:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1159 engagements "2Q GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed (whose GDP tracker was right in line in its 3Q & 4Q XX first ests of GDP (and just a tenth off for 2Q) but who was -XXX% too low for 1Q 25) edges down slightly to XXXX% the least since May 27th with a minor adjustment lower to residential investment as despite the beat on total starts the more economically impactful single-family starts fell more than expected: the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -XXX percent to -XXX percent Here's the new makeup of the GDP contributions (and changes from the last release"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946212277969100816) 2025-07-18 14:15:40 UTC 12.7K followers, 1642 engagements "In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index -XXX% edged lower for a second session after Thursday hitting the highest levels since Feb 2021. Major regional equity indices were mixed. Japan's Nikkei: -XXX% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.7% China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1% India's Sensex: -XXX% South Korea's Kospi: +0.4% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3% Note: easier to read if you click into the post. US and Chinese officials are meeting Monday to extend their tariff detente beyond a mid-August deadline and haggle over other ways to further defuse trade tensions. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949816904996016210) 2025-07-28 12:59:10 UTC 12.7K followers, 1317 engagements "MarketWatch: A trading desk note from UBS' U.S. equity derivatives strategy team said that retail demand for artificial intelligence stocks appears to be drying up at the same time many hedge funds appear to have had their fill of stocks and could be moving to the sidelines. Market is now on thin ice without a deep bench of buyers anymore which implies limited upside potential vs large downside risk the note said. Retail AI Selling continues and is expected to be Bearish Medium-term: After XX months of retail buying spree in AI Winners . that pushed SPX MAG-7 weight to all-time high . UBS RMM"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945785551195341102) 2025-07-17 10:00:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 6061 engagements "Markets Update - 7/21/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947418121691865326) 2025-07-21 22:07:16 UTC 12.6K followers, 4450 engagements "In terms of how markets are handling earnings beats & misses for 1Q it seems investors are taking an asymmetric approach as Factset says looking at the two days before to two days after a report beats have seen a +2.1% reaction vs +1.9% in Q1 and versus the 5-yr average of +1.0% while misses are being punished more than average (-3.0% vs 5-yr avg of -XXX% and vs Q1s -XXX% (although in Q1 the vast majority of reports came in the context of the 20+% recovery in stocks from the April lows))"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949479891830743128) 2025-07-27 14:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2802 engagements "New home supply (new homes for sale) moved up +6k to 511k the highest since Oct 2007 showing little signs of peaking. And with the weakness in sales the months of supply at the current sales rate is now up to XXX the most since Sep XX well above the normal range of 4-6 months"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948422927629586846) 2025-07-24 16:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1438 engagements "Leveraged ETF AUM in the two largest single stock ETFs $TSLA and $NVDA continued to diverge with TSLA +$149mn to $6.8bn just off the highs of the year while NVDA leveraged ETFs were -$17mn to $4.9bn remaining not far from the lows of the year. 3rd place $MSTR continues to close the gap on NVDA taking +$153mn in AUM to $4.2bn (up +$1.28bn the past three weeks). Next is $PLTR at $1.0bn"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1921977924066148575) 2025-05-12 17:17:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1219 engagements "Along the same lines CNBC reports that The Invesco S&P XXX High Beta ETF ( $SPHB) on Monday hit a new intraday all-time high going back to its inception in 2011. Stocks leading the ETF include Albemarle Super Micro ON Semi Teradyne CrowdStrike Deckers Freeport McMoRan. All are up more than 2%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947330730109043197) 2025-07-21 16:20:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2267 engagements "BoA forecasts total housing starts of 1.33/1.36mm in 2025/2026 but driven by the less economically impactful multi-family growth of +12% in 2025 offset by a -X% YoY single-family decline. For 2026 we expect +2% total starts with single-family up +1% YoY and multifamily up +6% YoY"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948080676181569684) 2025-07-23 18:00:01 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements "The Week Ahead - 7/27/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949658012508930390) 2025-07-28 02:27:47 UTC 12.7K followers, 8819 engagements "$NVO US listed shares of Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk down nearly -XX% premarket (they had fallen as much as -XX% in European trade the largest drop on record) after firing its CEO and replacing with a 3-decade insider (head of international operations Mike Doustdar its first non-Danish CEO). Analysts were critical of the move. Given the companys recent issues we are surprised by the choice of an internal candidate said Benjamin Jackson an analyst at Jefferies LLC. Analysts will start to question both near-term and longer-term obesity expectations that have ballooned out of control said Jared"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1950175473448722568) 2025-07-29 12:44:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1719 engagements "Nearly all of our client conversations this week are about when to take the other side of the moves in most speculative area of the market such as non-profitable tech stocks Faris Mourad Goldmans vice president of the US custom baskets team wrote in a note to clients. We have seen less talk and more action as the week has progressed and we are noticing clients getting comfortable shorting at these levels. After surging some XX% from its mid-April lows the banks basket tracking unprofitable tech stocks has slipped over the last two days giving back more than 3%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949107444765855847) 2025-07-26 14:00:02 UTC 12.7K followers, 12.6K engagements "MarketWatch: Mark Newton head of technical strategy at Fundstrat says the VIX looks to be close to bottoming and likely could trend higher in August. "Overall I feel that VIX likely can rise to the mid-20s and possibly mid-30s by October meaning that implied volatility at current levels is currently cheap in my view" says Newton in a note published late Tuesday. Consequently any decline in the VIX in coming weeks may represent an opportunity to buy cheap volatility on a 2-3 month timeframe he adds. "Bottom line any move down to 14-15.50 would signal an appealing risk/reward opportunity for"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948046699706105861) 2025-07-23 15:45:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2287 engagements "Earnings lighten up considerably Friday with just X SPX reporters of which none are $100bn in market cap (largest is HCA at $87bn)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948528371849462091) 2025-07-24 23:39:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2791 engagements "Initial jobless claims (SA) continue to remain tame in wk through July 12th edging back another -7k to 221k now down -29k from the highest level since October hit four weeks ago overall remaining in the range over the past yr just +34k above the 50-yr lows in Oct '23 (187k). Four-wk moving avg edges -6k to 230k (-4k y/y) down -15k from the highest since Aug XX from three weeks ago. This is consistent with the note X weeks ago that there have been modest moves higher in initial claims in early summer the past two years which eventually subsided. Continuing claims (SA) in wk through July 5th"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945825006904332349) 2025-07-17 12:36:47 UTC 12.6K followers, 2415 engagements "As always a nice collection of charts from @dailychartbook. Thought this one was interesting from @fernavid showing the % of stocks in the Russell 3000 (roughly all US equities) which have had a XX% move over the past XXX trading days (roughly a year). It's up to around XX% but it has gotten as high as XX% previously (perhaps unsurprisingly around bear markets)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948692202047373727) 2025-07-25 10:30:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 4456 engagements "Goldman (via ZeroHedge): having previously flaggedthe momentum rotation and extreme rally in high beta names and lower quality pockets of the market Goldman warns that "we may be moving towards later innings of the short covering given the magnitude of these moves." Historically there has only been X events where the bank's short interest pair had a higher monthly return in October of 2008 and January of 2021 and both cases had poor subsequent returns. However it is worth noting that the meme stock rally in 2021 caused more pain as the squeeze in the Goldman short pair was even more"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948715651712864690) 2025-07-25 12:03:11 UTC 12.5K followers, 1311 engagements "We'll start the week off on the light side with just XX SPX reporters with only $WELL $100bn in market cap"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949615786743525659) 2025-07-27 23:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2227 engagements "Despite Gov Waller's best efforts with another interview on BBG (link below) that hints at a potential dissent for a July rate cut #FOMC rate cut pricing from CME's Fedwatch tool has seen just a small adjustment off the lowest since February. A July cut remains very unlikely at X% and even Sept is at just XX% rebounding a bit from XX% a day ago. Less than X cuts are priced (46bps up from 43bps) this year with another almost X in 2026 (72bps). That's down from 92bps of 2025 cuts expected and 135bps of cuts through 2026 on May 1st"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946243565560246525) 2025-07-18 16:20:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 3335 engagements "MarketWatch: The vigorous embrace of high-beta names has many analysts worried. One is Dubravko Lakos-Bujas strategist at JPMorgan. In a note published Monday he and his team observe that there have been three episodes already this year where investing style factors have seen extreme crowding episodes. In January investors piled into quality growth large-size companies reflecting a desire to own the AI-linked mega caps. Then as concerns about AI overspend infected sentiment and tariff policy raised recession fears April saw a rush into stocks deemed low volatility safer. The latest bout of"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947303049082659274) 2025-07-21 14:30:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 5170 engagements "@sonusvarghese Why does FDI have to show up as a trade deficit Why can't it show up in greater savings and investment"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949542022446203102) 2025-07-27 18:46:53 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements "In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged higher +0.2% as it continues its recent chop a little below the highest levels since Sep XX hit two weeks ago. Major regional indices were mostly higher. Asian markets ended mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei +0.6% Hong Kong's Hang Seng -XXX% China's Shanghai Composite +0.4% India's Nifty -XXX% South Korea's Kospi +0.2% and Australia's All Ordinaries +0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Donald Trump said he would send letters to more than XXX countries notifying them their tariff rates could be XX% or XX% as he forges ahead"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945842967777866203) 2025-07-17 13:48:10 UTC 12.7K followers, 1459 engagements "@DigimonCBA Did I make it sound dramatic I was just trying to state that the average stock didn't participate much in the continued rally last week"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949216294210879914) 2025-07-26 21:12:33 UTC 12.6K followers, XX engagements "Goldman: Sentiment Indicator which combines nine measures of institutional foreign and retail investor positioning stands at X. This ranks in the43rd percentile of the past XX years and the indicator has not registered a positive reading since February"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1944809114531717164) 2025-07-14 17:20:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 11.8K engagements "BoA on EPFR flows week through Wed: Foreign inflows to: -US Treasuries past X mths ($0.5bn) weakest since Feb '17; -US stocks $2bn down from $34bn in Jan US share of global equity flows XX% YTD vs XX% in '24"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946168975856976183) 2025-07-18 11:23:36 UTC 12.5K followers, 3226 engagements "June existing home sales fall back -XXX% m/m to a 9-mth low as they bump along at levels near the least since just after the GFC at 3.93mn at what I would imagine is the slowest pace for June since June 2009 (after the worst March April and May since then). Note as these are closings contracts were signed 1-3 mths earlier. Single-family sales were -X% m/m to 3.57mn +0.6% y/y while condo sales were unchanged m/m -XXX% y/y. Sales rose in the West but fell in the Northeast Midwest and South (the largest housing market). All though but the NE were up modestly from a year ago. "High mortgage rates"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948026303094858045) 2025-07-23 14:23:57 UTC 12.6K followers, 1660 engagements "$GOOG $GOOGL Alphabet shares jump in a $XX band following the release of earnings which showed beats across the board but that also includes cap ex (higher than expected)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948113554017546363) 2025-07-23 20:10:40 UTC 12.7K followers, 2313 engagements "BBG: Invesco sees medium-term opportunities in Korea due to optimism over the governments corporate-governance reforms. The nations benchmark Kospi index has already gained more than XX% this year making it one of the worlds best-performing major equity gauges"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947476482596769974) 2025-07-22 01:59:10 UTC 12.5K followers, 1404 engagements "With the #FOMC coming up on Wed rate cut pricing for 2025 remained near the least since February +1bps Friday to 44bps according to CMEs #Fedwatch tool (well below the 64bps July 2nd before the June NFP & from 92bps on May 1st (the peak this year was at 103bps on Apr 8th the low was 36bps Feb 11th)). The probability of a cut at this week's meeting is X% down from XX% pre-NFP (and from XX% at the start of May) while a cut by the following meeting (Sept) is XX% remaining a little above the lowest since February on Jul 17th (54%). It was XX% pre-NFP. Chances of X cuts this year is XX% (down from"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949187968356274532) 2025-07-26 19:20:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1215 engagements "BoA: In FX the US Dollar declined again this week despite a pop higher in reaction to the strong US jobs report on Thursday. Our model suggests that CTAs still have $USD shorts vs $EUR $GBP $MXN and $CAD. In other currencies $JPY and $AUD longs are less stretched with JPY selling expected next week following this weeks USD strengthening vs JPY"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1942154120049414241) 2025-07-07 09:30:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1081 engagements "JPM's Market Intelligence desk says it remains "tactically bullish" at least though Nvidia earnings Aug 28th. We continue to find evidence for our bullish hypothesis: (i) resilient macro data; (ii) positive earnings growth; (iii) thawing trade war rhetoric they said in a note to clients Monday. This week we are focused on July nonfarm payrolls and MegaCap Tech earnings. NVDA earnings may be a sell-the-news event cueing the market to take a breather into seasonal weakness the JPMorgan traders said. This century August has been a flat month September the worst month of the year followed by Q4"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1950153078327726576) 2025-07-29 11:15:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1597 engagements "For the week a heavy slate of earnings with XXX SPX components representing XX% of the SPX (by earnings weight) reporting the 2nd heaviest week of the season with XX $100bn in market cap (GOOG/GOOGL TSLA KO PM IBM TMUS BX RTX NOW TXN T ISRG VZ TMO GEV BSX NEE HON COF DHR UNP APH CB LMT LMT CME (and INTC is right there at $99.5bn))"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947079071873048990) 2025-07-20 23:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 2900 engagements "BoA: Corporates sound more upbeat based on our NLP analysis after a steep drop in 1Q (outside of still miserable small caps Exhibit 59). We have yet to clamber back to pre-Liberation Day optimism but tariff uncertainty largely remains the scapegoat for near term caution. Long-term outlooks are very half-full - an uptick in project delays means pent-up spend down the road tariff inflation has been offset by pricing OpEx focus etc"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949484673048162764) 2025-07-27 14:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1727 engagements "Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TMUS $LVS $IBM $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $VKNG $MOH $URI"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948144026131325384) 2025-07-23 22:11:45 UTC 12.6K followers, 3195 engagements "Initial jobless claims (SA) continue to remain tame in wk through July 19th edging back another -4k to 217k now down -33k from the highest level since October hit five weeks ago overall remaining in the range over the past yr just +30k above the 50-yr lows in Oct '23 (187k). Four-wk moving avg edges -5k to 225k (-9k y/y) down -20k from the highest since Aug XX from four weeks ago. This is consistent with the note X weeks ago that there have been modest moves higher in initial claims in early summer the past two years which eventually subsided. Continuing claims (SA) in wk through July 12th"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948370249876734265) 2025-07-24 13:10:41 UTC 12.7K followers, 4086 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $MRNA $HPE $JNPR $META $GMS $HD $SSNT $PLTR $ACN $DIS $TSLA $UBS $ING $BA $NTDOY $WFC $ENPH $FSLR $GEV $FTV"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1939667164681720248) 2025-06-30 12:47:43 UTC 12.6K followers, 1983 engagements "As a result of the beats Factset says XXX% revenue growth is now expected for Q2 (+0.6% w/w) up from XXX% to start the quarter and up from XXX% in Q1. It would be the 19th straight quarter of growth"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949147702484521208) 2025-07-26 16:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1711 engagements "As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are modestly higher following the announcement yesterday of a US/Japan trade agreement and as corporate earnings reports continue to pour in. Later this morning well get existing home sales along with weekly EIA petroleum inventories. After the close well get earnings from GOOG & TSLA among others (CMG IBM etc.). Elsewhere bond yields are edging higher and the dollar is as well. Copper is also extending higher while crude gold bitcoin and nat gas are all lower. $SPX +0.4% $NDX +0.1% $RUT +0.6%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948008998688391224) 2025-07-23 13:15:12 UTC 12.6K followers, 1247 engagements "US equity indices started the day little changed at the large cap level but in the red for the DJIA & RUT and that's how they finished with a reverse performance from Wed (Nasdaq leading +0.2% RUT giving back yesterday's gains -1.4%)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948476653937561941) 2025-07-24 20:13:29 UTC 12.5K followers, 1161 engagements "BoA's Hartnett notes that client AUM is now at $4tn a record high with XX% of that in equities the highest since Mar '22. Mag-7 is XXXX% of AUM while Treasury bonds/notes are XXX% international stocks XXX% and gold is 0.4%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949494990973079589) 2025-07-27 15:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 9795 engagements "Nasdaq positive volume was very good at XXXX% considering the -XXXX% loss in the index (it was XXXX% Mon on a +0.38% gain). And the stronger positive volume was despite a slight pull back in penny stock volumes (which I treat as sub $2) although they accounted for X of the top XX stocks by volume (up from X Monday and X Friday) but the total volume in those stocks came in at 2.2bn down from 2.6bn on Monday or XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume down from XXXX% Monday (but up from XXXX% Friday). Meme stock Opendoor also saw about XX% less trading on Tuesday at 1.06bn shares down from 1.86bn Monday"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947767563464937539) 2025-07-22 21:15:49 UTC 12.7K followers, 1868 engagements "The Week Ahead - 7/20/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947109387199238611) 2025-07-21 01:40:28 UTC 12.7K followers, 9741 engagements "And I noted three weeks ago were now into the meat of the April/May volatility on the 3-mth realized volatility lookback which saw a sharp drop in the chart of realized volatility but now the party is over and the lookbacks are much less favorable. In fact the biggest drop well have on either the 1-mth or 3-mth lookbacks is XXX% according to Tier1Alpha. So there is perhaps some equity tailwind left in the volatility group (particularly risk parity which still hasnt started buying (as bond and commodity volatility has fallen along with stock volatility)) but the likelihood that this group"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949801728422940913) 2025-07-28 11:58:52 UTC 12.7K followers, 1143 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $HLT $HAS $T $COF $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP $RKT $NOK $ASML $MS $MCO $GEV $LII"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947999360307900837) 2025-07-23 12:36:54 UTC 12.7K followers, 2671 engagements "Were seeing an inflation market pricing a premium around the Fed independence risk said Meghan Swiber a US rates strategist at Bank of America. Ultimately if youre putting pressure on the Fed in an environment where unemployment is low and were still seeing inflation a far cry from the Feds target you ultimately have the market trading and perceiving more persistent upside risk to the inflation landscape. The nightmare scenario is the Fed loses its independence tariff inflation is big and the fiscal policy turns out to be more simulative ahead of mid-term election and its all happening at the"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947290465130500185) 2025-07-21 13:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2513 engagements "There could be a pause in the bull market in the short-term UBS head of U.S. equities David Lefkowitz said in a note to clients. President Trump continues to threaten higher tariffs and extend the timeline for reaching trade agreements. This is a damper on business investment decision-making and could also further push out the timing of Fed rate cuts. UBS said it holds a neutral view on U.S. equities for now which is not necessarily a negative stance but a cautious one due to trade risks. It appears that investors are already pricing in a substantial de-escalation in trade frictions UBS said."  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948737778461598024) 2025-07-25 13:31:06 UTC 12.5K followers, 1511 engagements "Nasdaq positive volume weakened considerably to XXXX% the least since June 13th and very weak for the +0.33% index performance. Just on Friday it was XX% on on a smaller +0.24% gain. And that was despite continued high levels of penny/meme stock volumes (I have added clear meme stock/short squeezes to the list which today just included OPEN in addition to the sub-$2 movers) although those eased back for a third session. In total XX of the top XX stocks by volume were in that category (down one from Fri & Thurs) and the total volume in those stocks eased back to 3.7bn from 4.5bn Fri and 5.5bn"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949936259729645916) 2025-07-28 20:53:27 UTC 12.7K followers, 1555 engagements "BoA (Hartnett): Tale of the Tape: bank stocks YTD: Europe XX% UK XX% China XX% Japan XX% US 17%; banks best expression of 2025 flip from US to global fiscal excess; banks = risk-on until bond yields rise to levels that trigger lower banks; hasnt happened yet (Chart 5) but vigilantes set to pounce if 30-year yields in UK XXX% US XXX% Japan 3.2%; interest costs up to X% of UK GDP ($120bn) X% of US GDP ($1tn) X% of Japan GDP ($185bn)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948676850491822567) 2025-07-25 09:29:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1315 engagements "The crush of earnings this week will step up Tuesday with XX SPX reporters of which eight are $100bn in market cap (V PG UNH MRK BKNG BA AMT SBUX (from largest to smallest))"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949978174613512696) 2025-07-28 23:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2331 engagements "SocGen: The $DXY index has decoupled markedly from Treasury yields since Liberation Day. Generally there is a positive correlation between US bond yields and the US dollar: when bond yields increase the dollar tends to strengthen as higher yields draw foreign investors seeking appealing opportunities in US Treasuries. However since trade tariffs have been imposed on all trading partners US bond yields have risen while the dollar has weakened. $USD"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1943241283730051145) 2025-07-10 09:30:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2505 engagements "Goldman: The US-EU deal and the recent US-Japan deal raise the odds that other trading partners negotiate lower sectoral tariffs. But if no further deals are announced and all of the tariff rates President Trump proposed in the July letters are implemented this would add 1.8pp to the effective tariff rate beyond our baseline assumption; applying the April rates to trading partners that did not receive letters in July would add an additional 0.9pp. It seems likely that a few trading partners could face a tariff higher than XX% after the Aug. X deadline but we assume that the general tariff"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949882545895530755) 2025-07-28 17:20:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1208 engagements "Interesting chart from BBG showing SPX index contribution from the Mag-7. NVDA & MSFT are the top two & META is fourth offsetting drags from AAPL & TSLA the two largest detractors"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949828619221496192) 2025-07-28 13:45:43 UTC 12.7K followers, 4858 engagements "Goldman says they see a highly unusual discrepancy between the "the front month VIX future which is extremely elevated vs implied volatilityThe roll down is huge. We think a lot of this is due to the massive growth in the VIX ETN complex as retail investors pile in to these products - this essentially leads to the VIX market acting a bit more short gamma: selling more vol on days when vol is down and buying more vol on days vol is up to stay rebalanced. The conclusion here is that with VIX future at such an elevated level and roll down so steep as UX1 comes in more equity buying ensues"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947298090320265580) 2025-07-21 14:10:18 UTC 12.7K followers, 2965 engagements "Markets Update - 7/28/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949955994039042156) 2025-07-28 22:11:52 UTC 12.7K followers, 36.4K engagements "Goldman: Prime book positioning in semi's "is at the highs (consistent with market sentiment around the group).""  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947687833197547650) 2025-07-22 15:59:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 2341 engagements "We'll get a lighter start to what will be the second heaviest week of earnings reports next week with X SPX components of which just one is $100bn in market cap (VZ)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947074038687301901) 2025-07-20 23:20:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 2151 engagements "BoA on CTA FX positioning: Last week we noted that CTA $EUR/USD longs were at risk of being unwound should the $USD continue its rally. However EUR rebounded this week leaving CTA triggers further away for the time being. Positioning is still stretched long in EUR as well as in $GBP and MXN"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949409438009344207) 2025-07-27 10:00:02 UTC 12.7K followers, 1563 engagements "BBG: Retail traders "plunked down some $XXX billion a day in foreign-exchange markets in the first six months of 2025 according to Finance Magnates Intelligence which collates data from several trading platforms. That figure is up XX% from a year ago Finance Magnates says echoing reports of jumps in volumes from eToro Interactive Brokers Tradu and FxPro. After excluding Japan where the market has become largely stable its up XX% and XXX% from five years earlier. Six hundred billion to be clear is small change in a market that rings up trading volumes of $XXX trillion on a typical day. And yet"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949054592437621160) 2025-07-26 10:30:01 UTC 12.6K followers, 1256 engagements "Ex-US its a heavy week as well with central bank decisions from Japan Canada and Brazil where holds are expected in addition to a number of other countries including South Africa Chile Ghana Pakistan and Colombia where cuts are expected. Well also get a number of key reports from EU GDP and CPI to global final manufacturing PMIs and a number of employment reports across DM in addition to the US. Interestingly though like in the US Monday is quiet"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949666945239760991) 2025-07-28 03:03:17 UTC 12.7K followers, 2452 engagements "In what may (likely will) become an issue in other trade agreements as they move from handshake to paper (and perhaps a potential issue markets are glossing over) there's already apparent disagreements in what Trump and Von der Leyen agreed to. After he met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen Sunday Trump said that the deal would not include pharmaceuticals a contentious point in the negotiations seeming to imply they would be subject to a higher tariff. In a separate news conference von der Leyen said The EU agreed we have XX% for pharmaceuticals. But she added Whatever"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949635667857981466) 2025-07-28 00:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2248 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $INTC $PARA $CNC $DECK $CVNA $CHTR $PUMSY $LVMH $VWAPY $FIX $SAM $AON $HCA $PSX"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948731115553853625) 2025-07-25 13:04:38 UTC 12.6K followers, 2041 engagements "DB notes the basket of stocks with high net call volumes are highly volatile and have poor profitability. Meanwhile crypto funds ($3.4bn) continued their strong run with their largest weekly inflows in X months. However other measures of exuberance remain subdued with for example continued outflows from US equities overall as well from leveraged and single-stock ETFs"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947320663813017906) 2025-07-21 15:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1717 engagements "Markets Update - 7/25/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948873093805408699) 2025-07-25 22:28:48 UTC 12.7K followers, 9197 engagements "$IBM the 3rd largest reporter today down -X% as software sales missed expectations even as they increased XX% y/y. Consulting which had been in a slump also inflected to a positive 3%. Infrastructure sales were +14% above expectations driven by the strongest initial launch of a mainframe product in IBMs history Chief Financial Officer Jim Kavanaugh said in an interview. Also note the stock coming in was up XX% for the year so in part a victim to perhaps too high expectations. IBM maintained its annual sales forecast of at least X% growth in constant currency. Free cash flow is projected to"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948121764103426119) 2025-07-23 20:43:17 UTC 12.7K followers, 2241 engagements "@tarun_kalra That one is definitely the most questionable. But it's nuanced a little. I think I put in another post but they just take the top XX and the median of that which I think can serve as an indicator of speculative engagement"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949203558248657308) 2025-07-26 20:21:57 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements "BoA notes on gamma positioning that as of Thursdays close SPX gamma was +$2.6bn (47th 1y %ile) a relatively modest figure. However a large portion of Thursdays gamma footprint is due to Julys 3rd Friday expiry (i.e. 18-Jul) which is now past. So BoA sees gamma as remaining relatively low but still positive which should have some marginal dampening impact on volatility but as of Thursday at least it saw a big wall that is perhaps what has kept SPX rallies from extending. It remains little changed on declines until around the 6150 but then builds. Again though this is all likely to change as"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947265047677616517) 2025-07-21 11:59:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 4028 engagements "Factset: Global investors have net bought more than $660bn of US equities in the past year. via ZeroHedge"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1894216962613334480) 2025-02-25 02:44:51 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements "DB: Our measure of equity positioning rose again this week to turn overweight for the first time since late February (0.05sd 44th percentile). As we have laid out over the last few weeks even with equities at record highs positioning is not yet elevated. In the absence of a clear negative catalyst there is room for positioning to continue trending higher"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946938143510585770) 2025-07-20 14:20:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1504 engagements "And of course we get the Fed decision and Powell press conference Wed (although this one is not expected to be hugely interesting beyond how many dissents we get (one two maybe a third trying to get Trumps attention (Bessent did say a regional Fed president (Hammack) was under consideration) and if Powell makes any consideration at all that perhaps a Sept rate cut might be in the cards if inflation remains tame (so far he hasn't done more than note that all of the possibilities floated by different Fed members (including the rate cut camp) are "reasonable")). No post-Fed speakers currently on"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949630886305018177) 2025-07-28 00:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1407 engagements "BBG: While institutions hold roughly XX% of US money market assets XX% of the growth in MMF assets since March 2022 (the start of the Fed hiking cycle) has come from retail whose holdings rose from around $1.4tn to $2.9tn currently (right scale on the chart)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946276283295621217) 2025-07-18 18:30:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1699 engagements "US Pres Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirm a deal has been reached that will see the EU face XX% tariffs on most of its exports including autos purchase $XXX billion in energy invest $XXX billion in the US on top of existing investments open up EU markets to US imports with no tariffs and purchase vast amounts of military equipment Trump said. The European leader said the rate would be all inclusive though Trump said later it did not include pharmaceuticals and metals. Steel and aluminum stays the way it is Trump added. The starting point was an imbalance von"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949538551827181738) 2025-07-27 18:33:06 UTC 12.6K followers, 2723 engagements "BBG US dollar index's worst week of the month. $USD"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948822045631861021) 2025-07-25 19:05:57 UTC 12.7K followers, 2811 engagements "MarketWatch: Blackrock remains bullish on bonds noting income in the bond market hasnt looked this good in XX years. Higher-for-longer policy rates have made this the best backdrop for earning income in bonds in two decades without taking more interest-rate or credit risk the asset-management giant said in a note Monday. Some XX% of global fixed-income assets now offer yields above X% as interest rates have settled above prepandemic levels. In the chart BlackRock showed the market share of fixed-income assets with a yield of X% or more. We like short-term government bonds BlackRock added"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947738416679948728) 2025-07-22 19:20:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1090 engagements "Given the price performance in SPAC's it's probably not surprising that 2Q saw the most SPAC capital raises since 1Q 2022. XX offerings raised a total of $X billion in the quarter for a 1H total of $XX billion"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949152484389199915) 2025-07-26 16:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1978 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $KVUE $NCNO $RIVN $SEDG $RIOT $CLSK $MARA $SNPS $ANSS $AFRM $FAST $ADSK $TSLA $UNCRY $BA $MSTR $HOOD $GOOG $META $AMZN $CRWD $PTC $WAT $BDX"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1944740075100606662) 2025-07-14 12:45:40 UTC 12.5K followers, 2422 engagements "As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are modestly higher although off the highs of the overnight session following US President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announcing a US/EU trade deal on Sunday at his golf club in Turnberry Scotland although they didnt disclose the full details of the pact or release any written materials and there are some discrepancies in their statements on what was agreed to. No data or other economic events scheduled later this morning or afternoon. That changes in a big way the rest of the week. Elsewhere bond yields are"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949819289457877288) 2025-07-28 13:08:39 UTC 12.7K followers, 1632 engagements "Through Thursday weve had XX% of SPX earnings in for Q2 according to Factset still a bit early for broad takeaways but FWIW the beat rate has remained elevated at XX% in line with the low bar I (and many others) mentioned ahead of the earnings season above 1Qs XX% the 5-yr avg of XX% and 10-yr avg of XX% but the downside is earnings are coming in on average just +6.1% above estimates below the +8.3% 1Q the 5-yr avg of XXX% and the 10-yr avg of 6.9%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949062147679604868) 2025-07-26 11:00:02 UTC 12.7K followers, 4307 engagements "US equity indices started the day little changed but dipped into the red in the first hour led by a -X% drop in the Nasdaq after reports the $500bn "Stargate" project was being scaled back (SOX -1.3%). All but the Nasdaq made it back into the green led by the RUT's +0.8%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947758616217325580) 2025-07-22 20:40:16 UTC 12.5K followers, 1394 engagements "Japan's Jul flash PMI remains unchanged at XXXX as an improvement in services (53.5 from 51.7) offset an unexpected drop in manufacturing back into contraction (48.8 from XXXX in June (50.2 exp'd)). "Latest Flash PMI data signalled a further modest increase in overall private sector business activity across Japan during July. However this masked divergent underlying trends with stronger growth across the service industry contrasting with a fresh fall in factory output. At the same time overall employment and new business rose only marginally across the private sector as a whole. Business"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948188816939852248) 2025-07-24 01:09:44 UTC 12.6K followers, 2460 engagements "Two different defense stocks two very different performances since May 1st. $LMT Lockheed Martin hitting a new 52-week low on the back of the companys second-quarter revenue miss. Shares were down over -X% putting its decline since May 1st at almost -13%. By contrast shares of $NOC Northrop Grumman were trading at all-time highs dating back to the Northrop Aircraft and Grumman Aerospace merger in 1994. That stock has surged more than +16% since May 1st"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947740933555958123) 2025-07-22 19:30:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 2786 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GPRO $DNUT $DOW $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $HON $AAL $AEO $TMUS $LVS $IBM $VKNG $MOH $DB $BX $LHX"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948367782325727728) 2025-07-24 13:00:52 UTC 12.7K followers, 2209 engagements "Yardeni on sentiment: The two bull-bear ratios we monitor have rebounded along with the stock market since early April (chart). Both sentiment indicators have returned to their long-term averages over time. There's certainly room for more upside in the stock market since sentiment isn't too bullish"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946177884642807833) 2025-07-18 11:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1925 engagements "BoA: The BofA Corporate Misery Indicator a macro gauge of the profit cycle remained near zero but still positive in 2Q suggesting a tough operating environment for corporates. Analysts are penciling in net margins falling QoQ to XXXX% in 2Q (vs. XXXX% in 1Q)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947986300599976204) 2025-07-23 11:45:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1114 engagements "MarketWatch: Barclays strategists led by Venu Krishna have their own metric for retail sentiment something called the equity euphoria index which measures the percentage of stocks in euphoric territory and is now surging toward the highest levels of the year. Its a proprietary measure culled from the options market and could be more reflective of market conditions given the way retail investors now use zero-day-to-expiration and other aggressive derivative products. Strategists at the bank said the dynamic of individual stocks both increasing in price and in volatility is a hallmark of upside"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948409086481244571) 2025-07-24 15:45:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1296 engagements "From the always great @dailychartbook nightly email (more info at the link at the bottom) Ned Davis Research has a nice "composite" seasonality chart which consists of equal weight to the normal seasonal cycle 4-yr Presidential cycle and 10-yr decennial cycle which has a similar story of a peak right about now with a choppy period through October but with less of a drawdown and then a really nice 2-mth rally into YE"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947967425976434706) 2025-07-23 10:30:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 5207 engagements "As always great collection of charts from @dailychartbook. Liked the ones from @bespokeinvest. First did not know that the most common VIX reading was XX (with XX close) over X% of all readings since 1990 next is down under X% (14). Second I know I've seen it before but the chart of returns vs VIX levels always is interesting to me. I forget how much big drama (25 VIX levels) equals really good forward returns but mild drama (17-24) not so much. That said there's NO VIX level where returns are negative over the next X months"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949077248340062275) 2025-07-26 12:00:02 UTC 12.7K followers, 5663 engagements "Goldmans Sentiment Indicator which combines nine measures of institutional foreign and retail investor positioning fell back three tenths to -XXX. The indicator has still not registered a positive reading since February"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947589940378013836) 2025-07-22 09:30:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 3039 engagements "BBG: While once piling into low priced names or those with high short interest was a symbol of rebellion against the well-heeled Wall Street establishment today "its just another day in markets. retail-driven speculative behavior no longer signals generational angst or post-pandemic distortion. It has instead become a settled feature of the current cycle. Short-dated options are part of the retail toolkit." In that regard the tool of choice is 0DTEs options which expire within XX hours which made up a record XX% of total SPX options last quarter. Peter Atwater an adjunct professor at the"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949847061802967158) 2025-07-28 14:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1203 engagements "This morning's meme stock de jure is apparently Kohl's $KSS. MarketWatch: Kohl's Corp. stock was up more than XX% shortly after the opening bell on Monday. Shares had risen by roughly XXX% at one point during the premarket session. Just five minutes after the opening bell Kohl's was halted for volatility by Nasdaq. Kohl's stock has a high short-interest ratio relative to its float. It recently stood at XX% according to FactSet data"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947661660677935205) 2025-07-22 14:15:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1354 engagements "But while SPX and NDX leveraged ETF AUM both are at 1+yr highs the two largest single stock ETFs $TSLA and $NVDA both fell last week with TSLA -$562mn to $7.5bn while NVDA was -$205mn to $6.4bn still though near the highest since Feb. 3rd place $MSTR also fell -$572mn to $2.9bn. $PLTR moved back into the fourth spot just above $COIN at $1.23b vs $1.22bn"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1950037314560020539) 2025-07-29 03:35:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 3128 engagements "Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $BAC $MS $GS $ASML $JNJ $BMNR $SBIT $BTBT $MSTR $MARA $DEO $CVLT $RNLSY $NVDA $BHF $APO $KKR $ARES $BX"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1945459785660350874) 2025-07-16 12:25:32 UTC 12.5K followers, 2631 engagements "CNBC: ETFs focused on China have run circles around the broad U.S. market this week. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF ( $KWEB) has surged more than X% this week while the iShares MSCI China ETF ( $MCHI) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF ( $FXI) have climbed around X% the latter on track for its biggest weekly gain since February. By comparison the S&P XXX has risen about XXX% over the same period"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1946248600788279690) 2025-07-18 16:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1306 engagements "Factset: 2025 revenues are now expected to grow +5.3% +0.3% w/w and now down just -XXX% since Dec 31st seeing much less deterioration than earnings and -XXX% since the start of the quarter (April 1st). Energy is the only sector expected to have negative revenue growth (although thats been cut by two-thirds since the start of the year)"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1950030563483742277) 2025-07-29 03:08:10 UTC 12.7K followers, 1471 engagements "Pres Trump seems to confirm that countries hoping for the XX% tariff arrangement the UK has will be disappointed and they'll be lucky to get the Japan deal (15% on all products). Well have a straight simple tariff of anywhere between XX% and XX% Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. A couple of we have XX because we havent been getting along with those countries too well. He said talks with the European Union were serious. If they agree to open up the union to American businesses then we will let them pay a lower tariff Trump said"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1948193922200567968) 2025-07-24 01:30:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 1947 engagements "As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are indicated modestly higher (as they also were every session last week) following a welcomed less newsy period since Fridays close. Later this morning well get leading/coincident indicators. Elsewhere bond yields are falling back as is the dollar. Crude and nat gas are also lower while gold copper and bitcoin are higher. $SPX +0.1% $NDX +0.1% $RUT +0.5%"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1947284929152156079) 2025-07-21 13:18:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1545 engagements "US Treasury auctions will also pick back up this week with X X & 7yrs in a compressed schedule (due to the Fed meeting/month end) on Mon & Tues plus well get the Treasury borrowing estimate for 3Q and Treasury Refunding Schedule (Wed) which will set out borrowing amounts and auction sizes (and give us an indication as to if any changes are coming in future quarters (no changes at least are expected there))"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949625853232771109) 2025-07-28 00:20:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1421 engagements "BofA using EPFR data in the week through Nov 27th saw equities with another inflow (9th in XX wks & 26th in XX wks) +$29.4bn now +$133.1bn the last X wks (since election) & $653bn YTD annualizing to $718bn: US 8th wk of inflows accelerating to +$36.1bn $141.1bn last X wks (since the election) largest on record +$441bn YTD annualizing to a record $485bn. EM though saw a 7th week of outflows remaining at -$1.8bn for a 2nd wk after the most since Aug XX the prior week & largest X wk outflow since May XX (now -$29.2bn last X wks but after XX wks of inflows) still at +$147.1bn YTD (after $91bn in"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1863236618687311943) 2024-12-01 15:00:01 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements "In Europe the benchmark #STOXX XXX was up +0.3% as of XXXX ET well off the highs which had at one point pushed the index to the highest since March following the announced U.S. trade deal with the European Union. Major European indices trade mostly higher. STOXX Europe 600: +0.6% Germany's DAX: +0.2% U.K.'s FTSE 100: -XXX% France's CAC 40: +0.5% Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.9% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.8% Note: easier to read if you click into the post. The EU and the U.S. reached a trade deal that will result in a XX% tariff rate on European imports into the U.S. call for $XXX bln in energy purchases from"  [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) on [X](/post/tweet/1949811462890741823) 2025-07-28 12:37:33 UTC 12.7K followers, 1604 engagements
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@neilksethi Neil Sethi
Neil Sethi posts on X about stocks, spx, nasdaq, fed the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +20%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +8.90%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +171%
- X Year XXXXXXXXX +1,283%
Mentions: XXX #
- X Week XXX -XXXX%
- X Month XXX +18%
- X Months XXXXX +16%
- X Year XXXXX +125%
Followers: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXX +2.10%
- X Month XXXXXX +10%
- X Months XXXXXX +166%
- X Year XXXXXX +683%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence finance #1845 stocks #2277 technology brands XXXX% cryptocurrencies #7131 exchanges #170 countries XXXX% automotive brands XXXX% currencies XXXX% social networks XXX% travel destinations XXXX%
Social topic influence stocks #880, spx #5, nasdaq #15, fed #52, tariffs #756, gdp 1.21%, $dxy #2, $tsla #244, $spx #5, japan XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @dailychartbook @sethcl @sonusvarghese @cnbc @kobeissiletter @callumthomas @marlincapital @mlsreformuk @cbarraud @myalphaport6688 @saltydocem @digimoncba @c_barraud @rev_cap @pboockvar @thechartreport @ryandetrick @alexlongley1 @ft @fernavid
Top assets mentioned Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) SPX6900 (SPX) SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD) iShares BTC Trust (IBIT) IBM (IBM) Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Limitus (LMT) Strategy (MSTR) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Intel Corporation (INTC) Metadium (META) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG) Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Texas Instruments (TXN) GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) Blackstone, Inc. (BX) Palantir (PLTR) Now Coin (NOW) T-Mobile (TMUS) Deckers Outdoor, Corp. (DECK) Samsunspor Fan Token (SAM) Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) Mario Coin (COIN) Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) Convex Finance (CVX) Netflix Inc (NFLX) BitMine (BMNR) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) UNICREDITO SPA UNSP/ADR (UNCRY) Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) MGM Resorts International (MGM) Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"Consistent with the declining volatility expectations as expressed in the VIX and to some extent the VVIX Goldman notes that the daily implied moves for the FOMC meeting and upcoming ISM/Payrolls have dropped to low levels relative to history. There is also limited volatility priced in for early August suggesting investors are no longer focused on Tariff negotiation catalysts"
@neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 18:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2078 engagements
"Ex-US its overall a light week although we do get the ECBs policy decision on Thursday where a hold is widely expected but what they might hint at about timing of another rate cut is less clear. There are also a few other central bank decisions (Turkey Hungary Nigeria Russia among others). In economic data well get flash PMIs Canada retail sales ECB lending bank lending survey EU consumer confidence Germanys Ifo business sentiment UK public finance data South Korea and Taiwan trade data and GDP and inflation prints from a number of Lat Ams largest economies among other reports. Well also get" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 01:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1969 engagements
"Jeffries: That the big beautiful bill has now been passed by Congress.without a revolt in the Treasury bond market has been a positive US equities have been celebrating and again with good reason. Still the passage of the bill like last quarters Moody's downgrade will probably mark a chapter in the history books on fiscal deterioration and the resulting decline of the US dollar paper standard. But for now the weaker US dollar and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) area positive for equities in the continuing absence of a Treasury bond revolt" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 18:30:00 UTC 12.7K followers, XXX engagements
"As we've seen most of the last several weeks Vol Control is modeled by BoA to be a buyer of equities Monday joined with some light CTA buying as well. Risk parity whose equity allocation is by far the lightest of the group continues to sit on the equity sidelines" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 23:01:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1534 engagements
"Its a lighter week on the US economic calendar with the headliners flash PMIs new and existing home sales durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. Well also get leading and coincident indicators (the latter are more important even though the former get the headlines) the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (has a good correlation with GDP) some more regional bank PMIs and the other weekly reports (mortgage applications and petroleum and nat gas inventories)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 00:00:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1282 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/22/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 22:16:44 UTC 12.7K followers, 4089 engagements
"BoA says last week clients returned to selling of US equities for the first fourth week in five at -$1.4bn. Clients sold single stocks after buying the prior week and continued to buy ETFs for the 14th straight week. Outflows were led by institutional clients -$1.9bn who have been net sellers in XX out of the past XX weeks. Hedge funds were also net sellers (-$0.4bn) reversing the buys from the previous two weeks +$0.4bn. Buying continued to be led by corporates as they exit the blackout window although there was a slight deceleration to +$1.1bn from at +$1.2bn but up from a low of +$0.6bn" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-29 12:23:31 UTC 12.7K followers, 2025 engagements
"BoA on EPFR flows: Foreign buying of US assets in 2025 annualizing to $138bn the 2nd largest year ever with a $547bn inflow decade-to-date" @neilksethi on X 2025-06-13 11:59:00 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements
"In a sign of the times Goldman adds a "Speculative Trading Indicator" constructed from trading volumes "of US public equity dollar trading value attributable to X unprofitable stocks X penny stocks and X stocks with EV/sales multiples greater than 10x". Unsurprisingly they find it shows a recent increase in high-risk activity within the US equity market. Specifically during the past month the share of trading activity taking place in each of those three groups of stocks has ranked in the top quintile of activity since 1990" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 10:45:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 19.9K engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $INTC $DECK $BYD $VRSN $NEM $SAM $EW $MHK $FIX $COUR" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 22:12:48 UTC 12.6K followers, 2909 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): the return of US exceptionalism has not coincided with return of US dollar bullquite the opposite; $DXY depreciating further to below XX would be confirmation asset allocators need to execute phase II of dollar debasement.up allocation to commodities & emerging markets (phase I was gold/crypto)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 12:00:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 1303 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $NFLX $CVX $HES $SRPT $UNP $NSC $MMM $AXP $IBKR $SLB $SCHW $COIN $CRCL $HOOD $GLXY $BMNR $HBAN $WAL $GSK $RBGLY $META $ALV $RF" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 12:44:09 UTC 12.6K followers, 2176 engagements
"Goldman: Total inflows of humanitarian and other immigrants remained stable at an annualized pace of 0.3mn in May and June. But total outflows continued to rise reaching an annualized pace of 0.7mn in June driven by both voluntary departures and deportations. While the number of deportations has risen noticeably since the beginning of this year and is now moderately above the 0.4mn seen during the first Trump administration we expect legal and capacity constraints to limit further increases" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 18:00:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 3631 engagements
"1-Day VIX continued to remain subdued just off the lows of the year at XXX consistent with traders implying a XXXX% move in the SPX Monday (might be a little more with the EU/US trade deal we'll see when futures open here shortly)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 21:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1299 engagements
"Copper (/HG) futures fell back sharply today at one point down over X% before cutting that to -XXX% still the worst day since April. Not sure the reason (perhaps thinking copper tariffs might be watered down). The reversal though comes after it met its measured target (I noted last week it might be time for a consolidation) and now has the MACD crossing to sell longs while the RSI falls from over to under XX often a signal of a consolidation. #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 21:21:05 UTC 12.7K followers, 1304 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $SBUX $AES $UNH $SEDG $MBLY $WPP $BE $UNCRY $CRBZY $VRNA $JPM $AAPL $OMC $IPG $ENPH $FCX $PENG $RYTM" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-09 12:42:22 UTC 12.5K followers, 1929 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): Historic examples of central bank governor dismissals sparse but always driven by policy conflict over rates currencies or corruption. In every case dismissal coincided with sharp FX declines" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 15:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 8203 engagements
"BBG: Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says that from a technical point of view he doesn't see "frothiness" when looking down-cap from the heavy-weights in the S&P XXX and Nasdaq indices. We believe that this bull market is broadening out in terms of participation he said. He points to the NYSE advance-decline line a popular indicator that tracks the number of securities rising minus the number falling on the exchange each day which is hitting fresh highs" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 19:59:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1391 engagements
"$UNH United Health almost cut in half since Apr 11th. That's $260bn in market cap" @neilksethi on X 2025-05-13 20:26:56 UTC 12.7K followers, 1467 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/23/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 22:29:15 UTC 12.6K followers, 4179 engagements
"Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also highest close since Oct '21. The index "jumped XXX% on Wednesday topping a previous year-to-date high hit on March XX. Kuaishou Technology Baidu Inc. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the top performers in the gauge. Hong Kongs benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 1.6%. boosted by easing Sino-American trade tensions and gains in heavyweight tech shares." "Investors are also looking to the countrys Politburo meeting later this month to set the tone for policy measures in the second half of the year. Markets have reacted positively to recent moves by" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:22:58 UTC 12.7K followers, 2509 engagements
"Mike Wilson Morgan Stanleys chief stock-market strategist says he now is leaning more toward his bull case of 7200 in XX mths for the S&P XXX based on earnings per share of $XXX and a forward share price to earnings multiple of XXXX. Wilson says this view is grounded on a more resilient earnings and cash flow backdrop than previously expected an improvement driven in part by AI adoption dollar weakness cash tax savings from the Trump administrations One Big Beautiful Bill Act and pent up demand for many sectors in the market. With private sector wage growth in decline and AI adoption" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 13:25:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 14.5K engagements
"BBG: Options trading is pointing to more losses for the $USD next week with a gauge of risk reversals signaling declines for the week and coming months. With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powells position seemingly secure the dollar may find near-term support. But the greenbacks downtrend remains firmly in place with eventual rate cuts poised to supplant the political risk premium as the dominant headwind. - Brendan Fagan Macro Strategist Markets Live" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 14:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1741 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $TSLA $GEO $CXW $MOH $SEDG $STZ $WNS $CGEMY $SHEL $MGM $AAPL $NSANY $NFLX $WOLF" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-07 13:28:04 UTC 12.6K followers, 1930 engagements
"The uncertainty surrounding Ishiba's future (and potential increased gov't spending) along with the finalizing of a US/Japan trade deal and BoJ Deputy Gov Uchida saying the deal means "likelihood has risen" for a rate hike all pressuring Japan's JGB sovereign bond market with a 40-yr bond auction today seeing its weakest demand since 2011. The bid-to-cover ratio a measure of demand came in at XXXXX compared to XXXXX at the previous auction. The bonds yielded XXXXX% the highest on record. Bond yields Wednesday rose across the curve" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:18:18 UTC 12.5K followers, 1355 engagements
"Some pre-market corp news from CNBC & BBG. $RDDT $TDD $HOOD $APP $CSCO $DE $BCS $TAP $SONY $KHC $BROS $MGM $UL $AAPL" @neilksethi on X 2025-02-13 14:09:48 UTC 12.6K followers, 1005 engagements
""The recent rise in speculative trading activity has accompanied one of the sharpest short squeezes on record. Since early April through July 24th the GS Most Short basket (GSCBMSAL) has rallied by over XX% outperforming the equal-weight S&P XXX by roughly XX pp. During the last XX years concentrated shorts have rallied more sharply only in 1999-2000 and 2020-2021 which are also the only periods in recent decades when speculative trading activity has exceeded current levels."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 12:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2562 engagements
"Goldman: The investor risk appetite that has boosted speculative trading activity has also contributed to the recent upturn in equity capital markets activity. The median US IPO in June rose by XX% in its first trading day the best month since early 2024 and a top decile return relative to the past X decades" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 13:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1215 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index shot +2% higher to the best close since June 2021 following the Japan/US trade deal announced Tuesday. Major regional equity indices also ended mostly higher led by Japan's Nikkei (+3.5%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+1.6%) pushed to the highest close since Oct '21 as did the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. Japan's Nikkei: +3.5% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.6% China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH India's Sensex: +0.7% South Korea's Kospi: +0.4% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Trump on social media" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 13:05:05 UTC 12.5K followers, 2120 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are again mixed with large cap indices little changed while the Russell 2000 is up modestly premarket after its worst session in over a week Thursday. No data or other economic events scheduled later this morning or afternoon. Elsewhere bond yields are edging higher again and the dollar is as well. Crude and nat gas are also modestly higher while gold bitcoin and copper are lower. $SPX +0.1% $NDX UNCH $RUT +0.4%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 13:24:33 UTC 12.5K followers, 1374 engagements
"MarketWatch: Data from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage shows that quantitative strategies are suffering their worst drawdown since the end of 2023. So-called systematic managers (that trade through Goldman) have accumulated a XXX% loss since the beginning of June to take their year-to-date performance down to a still positive XXX% on the year. The bank's analysts attribute the decline to a momentum sell-off a rally in high-beta and high-volatility companies and some unwinding of crowded trades. Bruno Schneller managing partner at Erlen Capital Management a Swiss asset manager says recent moves" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 16:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 9655 engagements
"JPM: Hedge Fund short covering last week was a X standard deviation event (so in the 99.7th %ile). (via ZeroHedge)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 19:30:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 60.5K engagements
"@C_Barraud @KobeissiLetter @Callum_Thomas @Marlin_Capital @SethCL CB I think you have the wrong link for the first post. S/B this one:" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 20:48:01 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $CDNS $NUE $WHR $WU $RMBS $TLRY" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 22:08:07 UTC 12.7K followers, 3953 engagements
"2Q GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed (whose GDP tracker was right in line in its 3Q & 4Q XX first ests of GDP (and just a tenth off for 2Q) but who was -XXX% too low for 1Q 25) falls to XXXX% from XXX% now the least since May 27th with minor adjustments lower to many components led by net exports and consumption (both around a tenth in terms of their contribution: the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from XXX percent to XXX percent. Here's the new makeup of the GDP contributions (and changes from the last release July 9th): Net exports = +3.31%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 16:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1463 engagements
"BBG reports that a hold by the ECB in September now looks like the baseline according to "people familiar with the matter." President Christine Lagarde on Thursday said she and her colleagues are now in a wait-and-see mode with inflation at the X% goal and the economy performing in line with or better than expectations. Following those comments markets pared bets on a September rate cut. They now put the chance of such a move at about XX% versus XX% before Lagarde spoke. Mark Wall chief European economist at Deutsche Bank suggested the ECBs easing cycle may now be over. Markets are not far" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 10:00:00 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements
"@myalphaport6688 Well buy the dip has been the place to be since the pandemic so retail has done well. Hedge funds have made money but not as much as retail. Institutions a little worse. Corporates have been steady buyers and have gotten better about buying more in declines" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:49:26 UTC 12.5K followers, XX engagements
"$CHTR Shares of Charter Communications plunged XX% on Friday putting the stock on pace for its worst day ever after the company reported losing 117000 broadband and 80000 video subscribers in the second quarter" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 19:50:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1195 engagements
"RRP remains around $140bn which indicates sufficient liquidity in the system but note this was supposed to build with the Treasury drawing down the TGA. The fact that it hasnt leaves little cushion when the debt ceiling is raised (currently they need around $200bn in extra issuance)" @neilksethi on X 2025-05-19 18:55:02 UTC 12.6K followers, 2567 engagements
"@sonusvarghese As I understand it you don't have to see any deterioration in the goods/services balance if the FDI is used to fund domestic investment or absorbed via increased savings" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 19:57:24 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements
"Ex-US its a heavy week as well with central bank decisions from Japan Canada and Brazil where holds are expected in addition to a number of other countries including South Africa Chile Ghana Pakistan and Colombia where cuts are expected. Well also get a number of key reports from EU GDP and CPI to global final manufacturing PMIs and a number of employment reports across DM in addition to the US. Interestingly though like in the US Monday is quiet" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 02:50:00 UTC 12.7K followers, XXX engagements
"The firehose of US economic data starts Tuesday with June JOLTS goods trade balance and wholesale inventories July Conf Bd consumer confidence and May home prices. No Fed speakers with the blackout but we will get the final of our Treasury auctions in the 7yr after the two today. The crush of earnings this week will accelerate Tuesday with XX SPX reporters of which eight are $100bn in market cap (V PG UNH MRK BKNG BA AMT SBUX (from largest to smallest)). Ex-US DM highlights are ECB inflation expectations UK consumer borrowing and BRC shop prices and Spanish 2Q GDP. In EM highlights are a" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-29 00:05:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 34.8K engagements
"JPM: Market liquidity conditions have seen notable improvement for US Equities. They also note that "low realized macro volatility has helped to induce low market volatility in conjunction with other factors such as retail investors and corporate buybacks continuing to act as a backstop to drawdowns in Equities as well as economic and financial leverage overall remaining relatively contained and thus far not served to amplify these shocks."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 15:59:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1083 engagements
"Goldman: Recent US dollar weakness is a tailwind to S&P XXX EPS but a smaller factor than many investors assume. The S&P XXX in aggregate generates XX% of its revenues overseas roughly unchanged relative to last year. In our macro model a XX% weakening of the US dollar is associated with a boost of roughly 2-3% to S&P XXX EPS all else equal. and investors typically do not reward FX-driven sales beats the way they reward constant-currency beats (Exhibit 5)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 11:20:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 15K engagements
"In Europe the benchmark #STOXX XXX is edging lower -XXX% as of 8.40am ET remaining in the middle of its range since early May. Major European indices are also trading lower. STOXX Europe 600: -XXX% Germany's DAX: -XXX% U.K.'s FTSE 100: -XXX% France's CAC 40: -XXX% Italy's FTSE MIB: -XXX% Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Stocks moved lower after the Financial Times reported Friday that President Donald Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of XX% to XX% in talks with the European Union. The report also said that Trump would be content to keep auto sector" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 12:48:35 UTC 12.6K followers, 1616 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $VG $NFE $LNG $NEXT $ETN $CEG $KTOS $LMT $RTX $ASML $STM $STLA $PD $CSCO $PKI $TSLA $SSNGY $TXN $VWAPY $HEINY $SRPT $AMZN $XOM $CVX $PDD $GEV $NKE" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 12:46:42 UTC 12.7K followers, 2827 engagements
"Enjoy the weekend. After a busy week well get a lighter one next week before we get one of those weeks to end the month (a packed schedule of economic and earnings reports and central bank policy decisions along with the Aug 1st scheduled implementation date for Pres Trumps new tariffs). For next week though its lighter on the economic calendar with the headliners flash PMIs new and existing home sales durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. The Fed will be in their blackout period (it appears Chair Powell will be making opening remarks at a banking conference but given hes a stickler" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-19 13:00:20 UTC 12.6K followers, 1718 engagements
"BoA on EPFR flows week through Wed: Bonds: $25.9bn inflow biggest since Jun20 ($25.9bn) across the board inflows (IG $10.3bn EM debt $5.7bn Treasuries $3.9bn HY bonds $2.4bn)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 14:01:25 UTC 12.5K followers, 1451 engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $UAL $SRPT $MCRI $AA $AIR $SLG" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-16 21:59:37 UTC 12.6K followers, 2594 engagements
"$ITB On the back of a +16% gain in the largest homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. $DHI as well as a +12% gain in PulteGroup Inc. $PHM after earnings the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF $ITB is up nearly +8% it's best day since Nov '22 to a 5-mth high. "Many of the biggest builders in the country continue to surprise Wall Street to the upside with how well they are running their businesses in this environment John Burns CEO of John Burns Research and Consulting told MarketWatch. In other words the results werent as bad as investors were expecting namely gross margins and the expectations around" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 19:52:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1100 engagements
"MS estimates that there will need to be $2.9tn of global data center spend through 2028 including hardware and infrastructure. By 2028 data center spend alone ($900bn) will roughly equal 2024 total SPX cap ex spend ($950bn). They estimate about ($1.4tn) will be financed by hyperscaler cash flows with the remainder ($1.5tn) needing to be financed through credit markets" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 11:45:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2722 engagements
"BoA says "assuming that tariffs are sustained at the announced levels they could add up to $650bn (2pp of GDP) to federal revenues. This would make a large dent in the deficit. However we view this as a clear upper bound as it does not account for several factors that would diminish the deficit reduction from higher tariffs." First they note "businesses and households are likely to substitute from higher priced imports towards domestic producers and/or towards countries with relatively lower tariffs. The latter dominated during the 2018/2019 trade war as imports from China fell sharply in" @neilksethi on X 2025-04-05 12:00:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 2358 engagements
"NY Feds 2Q GDP Nowcast (as a reminder they were way off for 1Q seeing +2.6% vs the actual 1st est of -XXX% (although they were closer in most other estimates and that will be closer after revisions)) edged back to XXXX% from XXXX% after its first improvement in a month the previous week still though well below the XXXX% from when it started its tracking Feb 28th). It's now the lowest of the GDP trackers I track. As a reminder the model is dynamic and so adjusts in real time as data evolves but parameter revisions didnt result in any changes" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 17:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 4128 engagements
"Long term inflation expectations as measured by the 5-yr 5-yr forward rate (exp'd inflation starting in X yrs over the following X yrs) which continues to be referenced by Fed members (including Jerome Powell (although I don't think he mentioned it at the June meeting)) as evidence for long-term inflation expectations remaining well anchored jumped to XXXX% Friday the joint highest (with October) in a year pushing towards the upper end of its 4-year range so perhaps starting to show a bit more concern about longer term inflation pressures (its now a little above its 20-yr average). That said" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 19:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 3739 engagements
"BoA (who as a reminder was just a tenth high for 1Q XX GDP vs the 1st estimate right on for 4Q XX GDP & two tenths high for 3Q) left their 2Q GDP tracker at XXX% as of Thursday despite a small downgrade after the home sales reports" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 13:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1113 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GM $LMT $KO $NXPI $STLD $MEDP $CSX $NSC $DHI $PHM $NOC $ZION $ACI $AGYS $CALX $AZN $SNY $QS $SRPT $PMI $SHW" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 12:46:55 UTC 12.6K followers, 2949 engagements
"As RenMac notes one negative from the #NFP report is permanent job losers (those who lost their job involuntarily and have no expectation of regaining it) rose to 1.92mn in April the highest since Oct XX. It was 1.28mn in Feb 2020" @neilksethi on X 2025-05-02 15:10:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2957 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DAL $EWZ $KLG $AMD $TREX $BYRN $PTC $HELE $BX $WPP $MP $UAL $AAL $ALK $LUV $ROKU $RARE $MREO $AMD $CAG" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-10 12:55:15 UTC 12.5K followers, 2460 engagements
"Goldman: Even a one-time price increase will eat into real income at a time when consumer spending trends already look shaky. Although nominal core retail sales rebounded in June we estimate that real personal consumption has now stagnated on net for six months which rarely happens outside of recession. Housing activity has also slowed sharply with overall construction spending falling faster over the past year than at any time since the post-2008 housing bust. The weakness in consumption and housing has pushed down our tracking estimate for H1 real GDP growth to XXX% about a percentage point" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 16:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 2594 engagements
"BoA on EPFR data through Wed: European equities see 5th week of outflows ($2.7bn) but still on pace for $110bn inflowbiggest since '15 and would be only second annual inflow since 2017" @neilksethi on X 2025-05-16 11:26:00 UTC 12.7K followers, XXX engagements
"MarketWatch: Hedge funds successfully negotiated a volatile second quarter and expanded total funds managed to $XXXX trillion their highest figure yet. The latest HFR Global Hedge Fund Industry Report released Friday registered the seventh consecutive quarterly increment with investors committing $XXX billion of fresh capital to the asset class. In all the first half of 2025 saw the strongest inflows into hedge funds for a decade. Both asset and performance gains were widespread across every strategy sub-strategy and cross-section of exposure as managers demonstrated tactical flexibility"" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 15:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1159 engagements
"2Q GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed (whose GDP tracker was right in line in its 3Q & 4Q XX first ests of GDP (and just a tenth off for 2Q) but who was -XXX% too low for 1Q 25) edges down slightly to XXXX% the least since May 27th with a minor adjustment lower to residential investment as despite the beat on total starts the more economically impactful single-family starts fell more than expected: the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -XXX percent to -XXX percent Here's the new makeup of the GDP contributions (and changes from the last release" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 14:15:40 UTC 12.7K followers, 1642 engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index -XXX% edged lower for a second session after Thursday hitting the highest levels since Feb 2021. Major regional equity indices were mixed. Japan's Nikkei: -XXX% Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.7% China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1% India's Sensex: -XXX% South Korea's Kospi: +0.4% Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3% Note: easier to read if you click into the post. US and Chinese officials are meeting Monday to extend their tariff detente beyond a mid-August deadline and haggle over other ways to further defuse trade tensions. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 12:59:10 UTC 12.7K followers, 1317 engagements
"MarketWatch: A trading desk note from UBS' U.S. equity derivatives strategy team said that retail demand for artificial intelligence stocks appears to be drying up at the same time many hedge funds appear to have had their fill of stocks and could be moving to the sidelines. Market is now on thin ice without a deep bench of buyers anymore which implies limited upside potential vs large downside risk the note said. Retail AI Selling continues and is expected to be Bearish Medium-term: After XX months of retail buying spree in AI Winners . that pushed SPX MAG-7 weight to all-time high . UBS RMM" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 10:00:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 6061 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/21/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 22:07:16 UTC 12.6K followers, 4450 engagements
"In terms of how markets are handling earnings beats & misses for 1Q it seems investors are taking an asymmetric approach as Factset says looking at the two days before to two days after a report beats have seen a +2.1% reaction vs +1.9% in Q1 and versus the 5-yr average of +1.0% while misses are being punished more than average (-3.0% vs 5-yr avg of -XXX% and vs Q1s -XXX% (although in Q1 the vast majority of reports came in the context of the 20+% recovery in stocks from the April lows))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 14:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2802 engagements
"New home supply (new homes for sale) moved up +6k to 511k the highest since Oct 2007 showing little signs of peaking. And with the weakness in sales the months of supply at the current sales rate is now up to XXX the most since Sep XX well above the normal range of 4-6 months" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 16:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1438 engagements
"Leveraged ETF AUM in the two largest single stock ETFs $TSLA and $NVDA continued to diverge with TSLA +$149mn to $6.8bn just off the highs of the year while NVDA leveraged ETFs were -$17mn to $4.9bn remaining not far from the lows of the year. 3rd place $MSTR continues to close the gap on NVDA taking +$153mn in AUM to $4.2bn (up +$1.28bn the past three weeks). Next is $PLTR at $1.0bn" @neilksethi on X 2025-05-12 17:17:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1219 engagements
"Along the same lines CNBC reports that The Invesco S&P XXX High Beta ETF ( $SPHB) on Monday hit a new intraday all-time high going back to its inception in 2011. Stocks leading the ETF include Albemarle Super Micro ON Semi Teradyne CrowdStrike Deckers Freeport McMoRan. All are up more than 2%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 16:20:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2267 engagements
"BoA forecasts total housing starts of 1.33/1.36mm in 2025/2026 but driven by the less economically impactful multi-family growth of +12% in 2025 offset by a -X% YoY single-family decline. For 2026 we expect +2% total starts with single-family up +1% YoY and multifamily up +6% YoY" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 18:00:01 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements
"The Week Ahead - 7/27/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 02:27:47 UTC 12.7K followers, 8819 engagements
"$NVO US listed shares of Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk down nearly -XX% premarket (they had fallen as much as -XX% in European trade the largest drop on record) after firing its CEO and replacing with a 3-decade insider (head of international operations Mike Doustdar its first non-Danish CEO). Analysts were critical of the move. Given the companys recent issues we are surprised by the choice of an internal candidate said Benjamin Jackson an analyst at Jefferies LLC. Analysts will start to question both near-term and longer-term obesity expectations that have ballooned out of control said Jared" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-29 12:44:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1719 engagements
"Nearly all of our client conversations this week are about when to take the other side of the moves in most speculative area of the market such as non-profitable tech stocks Faris Mourad Goldmans vice president of the US custom baskets team wrote in a note to clients. We have seen less talk and more action as the week has progressed and we are noticing clients getting comfortable shorting at these levels. After surging some XX% from its mid-April lows the banks basket tracking unprofitable tech stocks has slipped over the last two days giving back more than 3%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 14:00:02 UTC 12.7K followers, 12.6K engagements
"MarketWatch: Mark Newton head of technical strategy at Fundstrat says the VIX looks to be close to bottoming and likely could trend higher in August. "Overall I feel that VIX likely can rise to the mid-20s and possibly mid-30s by October meaning that implied volatility at current levels is currently cheap in my view" says Newton in a note published late Tuesday. Consequently any decline in the VIX in coming weeks may represent an opportunity to buy cheap volatility on a 2-3 month timeframe he adds. "Bottom line any move down to 14-15.50 would signal an appealing risk/reward opportunity for" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 15:45:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2287 engagements
"Earnings lighten up considerably Friday with just X SPX reporters of which none are $100bn in market cap (largest is HCA at $87bn)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 23:39:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2791 engagements
"Initial jobless claims (SA) continue to remain tame in wk through July 12th edging back another -7k to 221k now down -29k from the highest level since October hit four weeks ago overall remaining in the range over the past yr just +34k above the 50-yr lows in Oct '23 (187k). Four-wk moving avg edges -6k to 230k (-4k y/y) down -15k from the highest since Aug XX from three weeks ago. This is consistent with the note X weeks ago that there have been modest moves higher in initial claims in early summer the past two years which eventually subsided. Continuing claims (SA) in wk through July 5th" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 12:36:47 UTC 12.6K followers, 2415 engagements
"As always a nice collection of charts from @dailychartbook. Thought this one was interesting from @fernavid showing the % of stocks in the Russell 3000 (roughly all US equities) which have had a XX% move over the past XXX trading days (roughly a year). It's up to around XX% but it has gotten as high as XX% previously (perhaps unsurprisingly around bear markets)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 10:30:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 4456 engagements
"Goldman (via ZeroHedge): having previously flaggedthe momentum rotation and extreme rally in high beta names and lower quality pockets of the market Goldman warns that "we may be moving towards later innings of the short covering given the magnitude of these moves." Historically there has only been X events where the bank's short interest pair had a higher monthly return in October of 2008 and January of 2021 and both cases had poor subsequent returns. However it is worth noting that the meme stock rally in 2021 caused more pain as the squeeze in the Goldman short pair was even more" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 12:03:11 UTC 12.5K followers, 1311 engagements
"We'll start the week off on the light side with just XX SPX reporters with only $WELL $100bn in market cap" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 23:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2227 engagements
"Despite Gov Waller's best efforts with another interview on BBG (link below) that hints at a potential dissent for a July rate cut #FOMC rate cut pricing from CME's Fedwatch tool has seen just a small adjustment off the lowest since February. A July cut remains very unlikely at X% and even Sept is at just XX% rebounding a bit from XX% a day ago. Less than X cuts are priced (46bps up from 43bps) this year with another almost X in 2026 (72bps). That's down from 92bps of 2025 cuts expected and 135bps of cuts through 2026 on May 1st" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 16:20:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 3335 engagements
"MarketWatch: The vigorous embrace of high-beta names has many analysts worried. One is Dubravko Lakos-Bujas strategist at JPMorgan. In a note published Monday he and his team observe that there have been three episodes already this year where investing style factors have seen extreme crowding episodes. In January investors piled into quality growth large-size companies reflecting a desire to own the AI-linked mega caps. Then as concerns about AI overspend infected sentiment and tariff policy raised recession fears April saw a rush into stocks deemed low volatility safer. The latest bout of" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 14:30:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 5170 engagements
"@sonusvarghese Why does FDI have to show up as a trade deficit Why can't it show up in greater savings and investment" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 18:46:53 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements
"In Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged higher +0.2% as it continues its recent chop a little below the highest levels since Sep XX hit two weeks ago. Major regional indices were mostly higher. Asian markets ended mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei +0.6% Hong Kong's Hang Seng -XXX% China's Shanghai Composite +0.4% India's Nifty -XXX% South Korea's Kospi +0.2% and Australia's All Ordinaries +0.9%. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. President Donald Trump said he would send letters to more than XXX countries notifying them their tariff rates could be XX% or XX% as he forges ahead" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-17 13:48:10 UTC 12.7K followers, 1459 engagements
"@DigimonCBA Did I make it sound dramatic I was just trying to state that the average stock didn't participate much in the continued rally last week" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 21:12:33 UTC 12.6K followers, XX engagements
"Goldman: Sentiment Indicator which combines nine measures of institutional foreign and retail investor positioning stands at X. This ranks in the43rd percentile of the past XX years and the indicator has not registered a positive reading since February" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-14 17:20:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 11.8K engagements
"BoA on EPFR flows week through Wed: Foreign inflows to: -US Treasuries past X mths ($0.5bn) weakest since Feb '17; -US stocks $2bn down from $34bn in Jan US share of global equity flows XX% YTD vs XX% in '24" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 11:23:36 UTC 12.5K followers, 3226 engagements
"June existing home sales fall back -XXX% m/m to a 9-mth low as they bump along at levels near the least since just after the GFC at 3.93mn at what I would imagine is the slowest pace for June since June 2009 (after the worst March April and May since then). Note as these are closings contracts were signed 1-3 mths earlier. Single-family sales were -X% m/m to 3.57mn +0.6% y/y while condo sales were unchanged m/m -XXX% y/y. Sales rose in the West but fell in the Northeast Midwest and South (the largest housing market). All though but the NE were up modestly from a year ago. "High mortgage rates" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 14:23:57 UTC 12.6K followers, 1660 engagements
"$GOOG $GOOGL Alphabet shares jump in a $XX band following the release of earnings which showed beats across the board but that also includes cap ex (higher than expected)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:10:40 UTC 12.7K followers, 2313 engagements
"BBG: Invesco sees medium-term opportunities in Korea due to optimism over the governments corporate-governance reforms. The nations benchmark Kospi index has already gained more than XX% this year making it one of the worlds best-performing major equity gauges" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 01:59:10 UTC 12.5K followers, 1404 engagements
"With the #FOMC coming up on Wed rate cut pricing for 2025 remained near the least since February +1bps Friday to 44bps according to CMEs #Fedwatch tool (well below the 64bps July 2nd before the June NFP & from 92bps on May 1st (the peak this year was at 103bps on Apr 8th the low was 36bps Feb 11th)). The probability of a cut at this week's meeting is X% down from XX% pre-NFP (and from XX% at the start of May) while a cut by the following meeting (Sept) is XX% remaining a little above the lowest since February on Jul 17th (54%). It was XX% pre-NFP. Chances of X cuts this year is XX% (down from" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 19:20:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1215 engagements
"BoA: In FX the US Dollar declined again this week despite a pop higher in reaction to the strong US jobs report on Thursday. Our model suggests that CTAs still have $USD shorts vs $EUR $GBP $MXN and $CAD. In other currencies $JPY and $AUD longs are less stretched with JPY selling expected next week following this weeks USD strengthening vs JPY" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-07 09:30:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1081 engagements
"JPM's Market Intelligence desk says it remains "tactically bullish" at least though Nvidia earnings Aug 28th. We continue to find evidence for our bullish hypothesis: (i) resilient macro data; (ii) positive earnings growth; (iii) thawing trade war rhetoric they said in a note to clients Monday. This week we are focused on July nonfarm payrolls and MegaCap Tech earnings. NVDA earnings may be a sell-the-news event cueing the market to take a breather into seasonal weakness the JPMorgan traders said. This century August has been a flat month September the worst month of the year followed by Q4" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-29 11:15:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1597 engagements
"For the week a heavy slate of earnings with XXX SPX components representing XX% of the SPX (by earnings weight) reporting the 2nd heaviest week of the season with XX $100bn in market cap (GOOG/GOOGL TSLA KO PM IBM TMUS BX RTX NOW TXN T ISRG VZ TMO GEV BSX NEE HON COF DHR UNP APH CB LMT LMT CME (and INTC is right there at $99.5bn))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 23:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 2900 engagements
"BoA: Corporates sound more upbeat based on our NLP analysis after a steep drop in 1Q (outside of still miserable small caps Exhibit 59). We have yet to clamber back to pre-Liberation Day optimism but tariff uncertainty largely remains the scapegoat for near term caution. Long-term outlooks are very half-full - an uptick in project delays means pent-up spend down the road tariff inflation has been offset by pricing OpEx focus etc" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 14:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1727 engagements
"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $TMUS $LVS $IBM $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $VKNG $MOH $URI" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 22:11:45 UTC 12.6K followers, 3195 engagements
"Initial jobless claims (SA) continue to remain tame in wk through July 19th edging back another -4k to 217k now down -33k from the highest level since October hit five weeks ago overall remaining in the range over the past yr just +30k above the 50-yr lows in Oct '23 (187k). Four-wk moving avg edges -5k to 225k (-9k y/y) down -20k from the highest since Aug XX from four weeks ago. This is consistent with the note X weeks ago that there have been modest moves higher in initial claims in early summer the past two years which eventually subsided. Continuing claims (SA) in wk through July 12th" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 13:10:41 UTC 12.7K followers, 4086 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $MRNA $HPE $JNPR $META $GMS $HD $SSNT $PLTR $ACN $DIS $TSLA $UBS $ING $BA $NTDOY $WFC $ENPH $FSLR $GEV $FTV" @neilksethi on X 2025-06-30 12:47:43 UTC 12.6K followers, 1983 engagements
"As a result of the beats Factset says XXX% revenue growth is now expected for Q2 (+0.6% w/w) up from XXX% to start the quarter and up from XXX% in Q1. It would be the 19th straight quarter of growth" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 16:40:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1711 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are modestly higher following the announcement yesterday of a US/Japan trade agreement and as corporate earnings reports continue to pour in. Later this morning well get existing home sales along with weekly EIA petroleum inventories. After the close well get earnings from GOOG & TSLA among others (CMG IBM etc.). Elsewhere bond yields are edging higher and the dollar is as well. Copper is also extending higher while crude gold bitcoin and nat gas are all lower. $SPX +0.4% $NDX +0.1% $RUT +0.6%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 13:15:12 UTC 12.6K followers, 1247 engagements
"US equity indices started the day little changed at the large cap level but in the red for the DJIA & RUT and that's how they finished with a reverse performance from Wed (Nasdaq leading +0.2% RUT giving back yesterday's gains -1.4%)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 20:13:29 UTC 12.5K followers, 1161 engagements
"BoA's Hartnett notes that client AUM is now at $4tn a record high with XX% of that in equities the highest since Mar '22. Mag-7 is XXXX% of AUM while Treasury bonds/notes are XXX% international stocks XXX% and gold is 0.4%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 15:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 9795 engagements
"Nasdaq positive volume was very good at XXXX% considering the -XXXX% loss in the index (it was XXXX% Mon on a +0.38% gain). And the stronger positive volume was despite a slight pull back in penny stock volumes (which I treat as sub $2) although they accounted for X of the top XX stocks by volume (up from X Monday and X Friday) but the total volume in those stocks came in at 2.2bn down from 2.6bn on Monday or XXXX% of total Nasdaq volume down from XXXX% Monday (but up from XXXX% Friday). Meme stock Opendoor also saw about XX% less trading on Tuesday at 1.06bn shares down from 1.86bn Monday" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 21:15:49 UTC 12.7K followers, 1868 engagements
"The Week Ahead - 7/20/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 01:40:28 UTC 12.7K followers, 9741 engagements
"And I noted three weeks ago were now into the meat of the April/May volatility on the 3-mth realized volatility lookback which saw a sharp drop in the chart of realized volatility but now the party is over and the lookbacks are much less favorable. In fact the biggest drop well have on either the 1-mth or 3-mth lookbacks is XXX% according to Tier1Alpha. So there is perhaps some equity tailwind left in the volatility group (particularly risk parity which still hasnt started buying (as bond and commodity volatility has fallen along with stock volatility)) but the likelihood that this group" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 11:58:52 UTC 12.7K followers, 1143 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $HLT $HAS $T $COF $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP $RKT $NOK $ASML $MS $MCO $GEV $LII" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 12:36:54 UTC 12.7K followers, 2671 engagements
"Were seeing an inflation market pricing a premium around the Fed independence risk said Meghan Swiber a US rates strategist at Bank of America. Ultimately if youre putting pressure on the Fed in an environment where unemployment is low and were still seeing inflation a far cry from the Feds target you ultimately have the market trading and perceiving more persistent upside risk to the inflation landscape. The nightmare scenario is the Fed loses its independence tariff inflation is big and the fiscal policy turns out to be more simulative ahead of mid-term election and its all happening at the" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 13:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2513 engagements
"There could be a pause in the bull market in the short-term UBS head of U.S. equities David Lefkowitz said in a note to clients. President Trump continues to threaten higher tariffs and extend the timeline for reaching trade agreements. This is a damper on business investment decision-making and could also further push out the timing of Fed rate cuts. UBS said it holds a neutral view on U.S. equities for now which is not necessarily a negative stance but a cautious one due to trade risks. It appears that investors are already pricing in a substantial de-escalation in trade frictions UBS said." @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 13:31:06 UTC 12.5K followers, 1511 engagements
"Nasdaq positive volume weakened considerably to XXXX% the least since June 13th and very weak for the +0.33% index performance. Just on Friday it was XX% on on a smaller +0.24% gain. And that was despite continued high levels of penny/meme stock volumes (I have added clear meme stock/short squeezes to the list which today just included OPEN in addition to the sub-$2 movers) although those eased back for a third session. In total XX of the top XX stocks by volume were in that category (down one from Fri & Thurs) and the total volume in those stocks eased back to 3.7bn from 4.5bn Fri and 5.5bn" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 20:53:27 UTC 12.7K followers, 1555 engagements
"BoA (Hartnett): Tale of the Tape: bank stocks YTD: Europe XX% UK XX% China XX% Japan XX% US 17%; banks best expression of 2025 flip from US to global fiscal excess; banks = risk-on until bond yields rise to levels that trigger lower banks; hasnt happened yet (Chart 5) but vigilantes set to pounce if 30-year yields in UK XXX% US XXX% Japan 3.2%; interest costs up to X% of UK GDP ($120bn) X% of US GDP ($1tn) X% of Japan GDP ($185bn)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 09:29:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1315 engagements
"The crush of earnings this week will step up Tuesday with XX SPX reporters of which eight are $100bn in market cap (V PG UNH MRK BKNG BA AMT SBUX (from largest to smallest))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 23:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2331 engagements
"SocGen: The $DXY index has decoupled markedly from Treasury yields since Liberation Day. Generally there is a positive correlation between US bond yields and the US dollar: when bond yields increase the dollar tends to strengthen as higher yields draw foreign investors seeking appealing opportunities in US Treasuries. However since trade tariffs have been imposed on all trading partners US bond yields have risen while the dollar has weakened. $USD" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-10 09:30:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 2505 engagements
"Goldman: The US-EU deal and the recent US-Japan deal raise the odds that other trading partners negotiate lower sectoral tariffs. But if no further deals are announced and all of the tariff rates President Trump proposed in the July letters are implemented this would add 1.8pp to the effective tariff rate beyond our baseline assumption; applying the April rates to trading partners that did not receive letters in July would add an additional 0.9pp. It seems likely that a few trading partners could face a tariff higher than XX% after the Aug. X deadline but we assume that the general tariff" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 17:20:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1208 engagements
"Interesting chart from BBG showing SPX index contribution from the Mag-7. NVDA & MSFT are the top two & META is fourth offsetting drags from AAPL & TSLA the two largest detractors" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 13:45:43 UTC 12.7K followers, 4858 engagements
"Goldman says they see a highly unusual discrepancy between the "the front month VIX future which is extremely elevated vs implied volatilityThe roll down is huge. We think a lot of this is due to the massive growth in the VIX ETN complex as retail investors pile in to these products - this essentially leads to the VIX market acting a bit more short gamma: selling more vol on days when vol is down and buying more vol on days vol is up to stay rebalanced. The conclusion here is that with VIX future at such an elevated level and roll down so steep as UX1 comes in more equity buying ensues" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 14:10:18 UTC 12.7K followers, 2965 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/28/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 22:11:52 UTC 12.7K followers, 36.4K engagements
"Goldman: Prime book positioning in semi's "is at the highs (consistent with market sentiment around the group)."" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 15:59:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 2341 engagements
"We'll get a lighter start to what will be the second heaviest week of earnings reports next week with X SPX components of which just one is $100bn in market cap (VZ)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 23:20:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 2151 engagements
"BoA on CTA FX positioning: Last week we noted that CTA $EUR/USD longs were at risk of being unwound should the $USD continue its rally. However EUR rebounded this week leaving CTA triggers further away for the time being. Positioning is still stretched long in EUR as well as in $GBP and MXN" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 10:00:02 UTC 12.7K followers, 1563 engagements
"BBG: Retail traders "plunked down some $XXX billion a day in foreign-exchange markets in the first six months of 2025 according to Finance Magnates Intelligence which collates data from several trading platforms. That figure is up XX% from a year ago Finance Magnates says echoing reports of jumps in volumes from eToro Interactive Brokers Tradu and FxPro. After excluding Japan where the market has become largely stable its up XX% and XXX% from five years earlier. Six hundred billion to be clear is small change in a market that rings up trading volumes of $XXX trillion on a typical day. And yet" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 10:30:01 UTC 12.6K followers, 1256 engagements
"Ex-US its a heavy week as well with central bank decisions from Japan Canada and Brazil where holds are expected in addition to a number of other countries including South Africa Chile Ghana Pakistan and Colombia where cuts are expected. Well also get a number of key reports from EU GDP and CPI to global final manufacturing PMIs and a number of employment reports across DM in addition to the US. Interestingly though like in the US Monday is quiet" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 03:03:17 UTC 12.7K followers, 2452 engagements
"In what may (likely will) become an issue in other trade agreements as they move from handshake to paper (and perhaps a potential issue markets are glossing over) there's already apparent disagreements in what Trump and Von der Leyen agreed to. After he met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen Sunday Trump said that the deal would not include pharmaceuticals a contentious point in the negotiations seeming to imply they would be subject to a higher tariff. In a separate news conference von der Leyen said The EU agreed we have XX% for pharmaceuticals. But she added Whatever" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 00:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 2248 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $INTC $PARA $CNC $DECK $CVNA $CHTR $PUMSY $LVMH $VWAPY $FIX $SAM $AON $HCA $PSX" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 13:04:38 UTC 12.6K followers, 2041 engagements
"DB notes the basket of stocks with high net call volumes are highly volatile and have poor profitability. Meanwhile crypto funds ($3.4bn) continued their strong run with their largest weekly inflows in X months. However other measures of exuberance remain subdued with for example continued outflows from US equities overall as well from leveraged and single-stock ETFs" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 15:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1717 engagements
"Markets Update - 7/25/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 22:28:48 UTC 12.7K followers, 9197 engagements
"$IBM the 3rd largest reporter today down -X% as software sales missed expectations even as they increased XX% y/y. Consulting which had been in a slump also inflected to a positive 3%. Infrastructure sales were +14% above expectations driven by the strongest initial launch of a mainframe product in IBMs history Chief Financial Officer Jim Kavanaugh said in an interview. Also note the stock coming in was up XX% for the year so in part a victim to perhaps too high expectations. IBM maintained its annual sales forecast of at least X% growth in constant currency. Free cash flow is projected to" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 20:43:17 UTC 12.7K followers, 2241 engagements
"@tarun_kalra That one is definitely the most questionable. But it's nuanced a little. I think I put in another post but they just take the top XX and the median of that which I think can serve as an indicator of speculative engagement" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 20:21:57 UTC 12.6K followers, XXX engagements
"BoA notes on gamma positioning that as of Thursdays close SPX gamma was +$2.6bn (47th 1y %ile) a relatively modest figure. However a large portion of Thursdays gamma footprint is due to Julys 3rd Friday expiry (i.e. 18-Jul) which is now past. So BoA sees gamma as remaining relatively low but still positive which should have some marginal dampening impact on volatility but as of Thursday at least it saw a big wall that is perhaps what has kept SPX rallies from extending. It remains little changed on declines until around the 6150 but then builds. Again though this is all likely to change as" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 11:59:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 4028 engagements
"Factset: Global investors have net bought more than $660bn of US equities in the past year. via ZeroHedge" @neilksethi on X 2025-02-25 02:44:51 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements
"DB: Our measure of equity positioning rose again this week to turn overweight for the first time since late February (0.05sd 44th percentile). As we have laid out over the last few weeks even with equities at record highs positioning is not yet elevated. In the absence of a clear negative catalyst there is room for positioning to continue trending higher" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-20 14:20:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1504 engagements
"And of course we get the Fed decision and Powell press conference Wed (although this one is not expected to be hugely interesting beyond how many dissents we get (one two maybe a third trying to get Trumps attention (Bessent did say a regional Fed president (Hammack) was under consideration) and if Powell makes any consideration at all that perhaps a Sept rate cut might be in the cards if inflation remains tame (so far he hasn't done more than note that all of the possibilities floated by different Fed members (including the rate cut camp) are "reasonable")). No post-Fed speakers currently on" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 00:40:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1407 engagements
"BBG: While institutions hold roughly XX% of US money market assets XX% of the growth in MMF assets since March 2022 (the start of the Fed hiking cycle) has come from retail whose holdings rose from around $1.4tn to $2.9tn currently (right scale on the chart)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 18:30:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1699 engagements
"US Pres Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirm a deal has been reached that will see the EU face XX% tariffs on most of its exports including autos purchase $XXX billion in energy invest $XXX billion in the US on top of existing investments open up EU markets to US imports with no tariffs and purchase vast amounts of military equipment Trump said. The European leader said the rate would be all inclusive though Trump said later it did not include pharmaceuticals and metals. Steel and aluminum stays the way it is Trump added. The starting point was an imbalance von" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-27 18:33:06 UTC 12.6K followers, 2723 engagements
"BBG US dollar index's worst week of the month. $USD" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-25 19:05:57 UTC 12.7K followers, 2811 engagements
"MarketWatch: Blackrock remains bullish on bonds noting income in the bond market hasnt looked this good in XX years. Higher-for-longer policy rates have made this the best backdrop for earning income in bonds in two decades without taking more interest-rate or credit risk the asset-management giant said in a note Monday. Some XX% of global fixed-income assets now offer yields above X% as interest rates have settled above prepandemic levels. In the chart BlackRock showed the market share of fixed-income assets with a yield of X% or more. We like short-term government bonds BlackRock added" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 19:20:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1090 engagements
"Given the price performance in SPAC's it's probably not surprising that 2Q saw the most SPAC capital raises since 1Q 2022. XX offerings raised a total of $X billion in the quarter for a 1H total of $XX billion" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 16:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1978 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $KVUE $NCNO $RIVN $SEDG $RIOT $CLSK $MARA $SNPS $ANSS $AFRM $FAST $ADSK $TSLA $UNCRY $BA $MSTR $HOOD $GOOG $META $AMZN $CRWD $PTC $WAT $BDX" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-14 12:45:40 UTC 12.5K followers, 2422 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are modestly higher although off the highs of the overnight session following US President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announcing a US/EU trade deal on Sunday at his golf club in Turnberry Scotland although they didnt disclose the full details of the pact or release any written materials and there are some discrepancies in their statements on what was agreed to. No data or other economic events scheduled later this morning or afternoon. That changes in a big way the rest of the week. Elsewhere bond yields are" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 13:08:39 UTC 12.7K followers, 1632 engagements
"Through Thursday weve had XX% of SPX earnings in for Q2 according to Factset still a bit early for broad takeaways but FWIW the beat rate has remained elevated at XX% in line with the low bar I (and many others) mentioned ahead of the earnings season above 1Qs XX% the 5-yr avg of XX% and 10-yr avg of XX% but the downside is earnings are coming in on average just +6.1% above estimates below the +8.3% 1Q the 5-yr avg of XXX% and the 10-yr avg of 6.9%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 11:00:02 UTC 12.7K followers, 4307 engagements
"US equity indices started the day little changed but dipped into the red in the first hour led by a -X% drop in the Nasdaq after reports the $500bn "Stargate" project was being scaled back (SOX -1.3%). All but the Nasdaq made it back into the green led by the RUT's +0.8%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 20:40:16 UTC 12.5K followers, 1394 engagements
"Japan's Jul flash PMI remains unchanged at XXXX as an improvement in services (53.5 from 51.7) offset an unexpected drop in manufacturing back into contraction (48.8 from XXXX in June (50.2 exp'd)). "Latest Flash PMI data signalled a further modest increase in overall private sector business activity across Japan during July. However this masked divergent underlying trends with stronger growth across the service industry contrasting with a fresh fall in factory output. At the same time overall employment and new business rose only marginally across the private sector as a whole. Business" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 01:09:44 UTC 12.6K followers, 2460 engagements
"Two different defense stocks two very different performances since May 1st. $LMT Lockheed Martin hitting a new 52-week low on the back of the companys second-quarter revenue miss. Shares were down over -X% putting its decline since May 1st at almost -13%. By contrast shares of $NOC Northrop Grumman were trading at all-time highs dating back to the Northrop Aircraft and Grumman Aerospace merger in 1994. That stock has surged more than +16% since May 1st" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 19:30:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 2786 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DOOR $GPRO $DNUT $DOW $GOOG $NOW $CMG $TSLA $HON $AAL $AEO $TMUS $LVS $IBM $VKNG $MOH $DB $BX $LHX" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 13:00:52 UTC 12.7K followers, 2209 engagements
"Yardeni on sentiment: The two bull-bear ratios we monitor have rebounded along with the stock market since early April (chart). Both sentiment indicators have returned to their long-term averages over time. There's certainly room for more upside in the stock market since sentiment isn't too bullish" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 11:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1925 engagements
"BoA: The BofA Corporate Misery Indicator a macro gauge of the profit cycle remained near zero but still positive in 2Q suggesting a tough operating environment for corporates. Analysts are penciling in net margins falling QoQ to XXXX% in 2Q (vs. XXXX% in 1Q)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 11:45:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1114 engagements
"MarketWatch: Barclays strategists led by Venu Krishna have their own metric for retail sentiment something called the equity euphoria index which measures the percentage of stocks in euphoric territory and is now surging toward the highest levels of the year. Its a proprietary measure culled from the options market and could be more reflective of market conditions given the way retail investors now use zero-day-to-expiration and other aggressive derivative products. Strategists at the bank said the dynamic of individual stocks both increasing in price and in volatility is a hallmark of upside" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 15:45:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1296 engagements
"From the always great @dailychartbook nightly email (more info at the link at the bottom) Ned Davis Research has a nice "composite" seasonality chart which consists of equal weight to the normal seasonal cycle 4-yr Presidential cycle and 10-yr decennial cycle which has a similar story of a peak right about now with a choppy period through October but with less of a drawdown and then a really nice 2-mth rally into YE" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-23 10:30:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 5207 engagements
"As always great collection of charts from @dailychartbook. Liked the ones from @bespokeinvest. First did not know that the most common VIX reading was XX (with XX close) over X% of all readings since 1990 next is down under X% (14). Second I know I've seen it before but the chart of returns vs VIX levels always is interesting to me. I forget how much big drama (25 VIX levels) equals really good forward returns but mild drama (17-24) not so much. That said there's NO VIX level where returns are negative over the next X months" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-26 12:00:02 UTC 12.7K followers, 5663 engagements
"Goldmans Sentiment Indicator which combines nine measures of institutional foreign and retail investor positioning fell back three tenths to -XXX. The indicator has still not registered a positive reading since February" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 09:30:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 3039 engagements
"BBG: While once piling into low priced names or those with high short interest was a symbol of rebellion against the well-heeled Wall Street establishment today "its just another day in markets. retail-driven speculative behavior no longer signals generational angst or post-pandemic distortion. It has instead become a settled feature of the current cycle. Short-dated options are part of the retail toolkit." In that regard the tool of choice is 0DTEs options which expire within XX hours which made up a record XX% of total SPX options last quarter. Peter Atwater an adjunct professor at the" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 14:59:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1203 engagements
"This morning's meme stock de jure is apparently Kohl's $KSS. MarketWatch: Kohl's Corp. stock was up more than XX% shortly after the opening bell on Monday. Shares had risen by roughly XXX% at one point during the premarket session. Just five minutes after the opening bell Kohl's was halted for volatility by Nasdaq. Kohl's stock has a high short-interest ratio relative to its float. It recently stood at XX% according to FactSet data" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-22 14:15:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1354 engagements
"But while SPX and NDX leveraged ETF AUM both are at 1+yr highs the two largest single stock ETFs $TSLA and $NVDA both fell last week with TSLA -$562mn to $7.5bn while NVDA was -$205mn to $6.4bn still though near the highest since Feb. 3rd place $MSTR also fell -$572mn to $2.9bn. $PLTR moved back into the fourth spot just above $COIN at $1.23b vs $1.22bn" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-29 03:35:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 3128 engagements
"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $BAC $MS $GS $ASML $JNJ $BMNR $SBIT $BTBT $MSTR $MARA $DEO $CVLT $RNLSY $NVDA $BHF $APO $KKR $ARES $BX" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-16 12:25:32 UTC 12.5K followers, 2631 engagements
"CNBC: ETFs focused on China have run circles around the broad U.S. market this week. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF ( $KWEB) has surged more than X% this week while the iShares MSCI China ETF ( $MCHI) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF ( $FXI) have climbed around X% the latter on track for its biggest weekly gain since February. By comparison the S&P XXX has risen about XXX% over the same period" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-18 16:40:00 UTC 12.5K followers, 1306 engagements
"Factset: 2025 revenues are now expected to grow +5.3% +0.3% w/w and now down just -XXX% since Dec 31st seeing much less deterioration than earnings and -XXX% since the start of the quarter (April 1st). Energy is the only sector expected to have negative revenue growth (although thats been cut by two-thirds since the start of the year)" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-29 03:08:10 UTC 12.7K followers, 1471 engagements
"Pres Trump seems to confirm that countries hoping for the XX% tariff arrangement the UK has will be disappointed and they'll be lucky to get the Japan deal (15% on all products). Well have a straight simple tariff of anywhere between XX% and XX% Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. A couple of we have XX because we havent been getting along with those countries too well. He said talks with the European Union were serious. If they agree to open up the union to American businesses then we will let them pay a lower tariff Trump said" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-24 01:30:01 UTC 12.7K followers, 1947 engagements
"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are indicated modestly higher (as they also were every session last week) following a welcomed less newsy period since Fridays close. Later this morning well get leading/coincident indicators. Elsewhere bond yields are falling back as is the dollar. Crude and nat gas are also lower while gold copper and bitcoin are higher. $SPX +0.1% $NDX +0.1% $RUT +0.5%" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-21 13:18:00 UTC 12.6K followers, 1545 engagements
"US Treasury auctions will also pick back up this week with X X & 7yrs in a compressed schedule (due to the Fed meeting/month end) on Mon & Tues plus well get the Treasury borrowing estimate for 3Q and Treasury Refunding Schedule (Wed) which will set out borrowing amounts and auction sizes (and give us an indication as to if any changes are coming in future quarters (no changes at least are expected there))" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 00:20:00 UTC 12.7K followers, 1421 engagements
"BofA using EPFR data in the week through Nov 27th saw equities with another inflow (9th in XX wks & 26th in XX wks) +$29.4bn now +$133.1bn the last X wks (since election) & $653bn YTD annualizing to $718bn: US 8th wk of inflows accelerating to +$36.1bn $141.1bn last X wks (since the election) largest on record +$441bn YTD annualizing to a record $485bn. EM though saw a 7th week of outflows remaining at -$1.8bn for a 2nd wk after the most since Aug XX the prior week & largest X wk outflow since May XX (now -$29.2bn last X wks but after XX wks of inflows) still at +$147.1bn YTD (after $91bn in" @neilksethi on X 2024-12-01 15:00:01 UTC 12.5K followers, XXX engagements
"In Europe the benchmark #STOXX XXX was up +0.3% as of XXXX ET well off the highs which had at one point pushed the index to the highest since March following the announced U.S. trade deal with the European Union. Major European indices trade mostly higher. STOXX Europe 600: +0.6% Germany's DAX: +0.2% U.K.'s FTSE 100: -XXX% France's CAC 40: +0.5% Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.9% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.8% Note: easier to read if you click into the post. The EU and the U.S. reached a trade deal that will result in a XX% tariff rate on European imports into the U.S. call for $XXX bln in energy purchases from" @neilksethi on X 2025-07-28 12:37:33 UTC 12.7K followers, 1604 engagements