[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

# ![@neilksethi Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2252413050.png) @neilksethi Neil Sethi

US equity markets are experiencing a mix of positive and negative trends, with strong earnings reports from major companies such as banks and tech firms, but also concerns about volatility and potential economic uncertainty. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with some investors expecting a cut as early as October. Despite some bearish sentiments, many strategists remain constructive on the market, citing strengthening corporate fundamentals and a historically strong November.

### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2252413050/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +154%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +534%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2252413050/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX -XX%
- X Month XXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXX +25%
- X Year XXXXX +26%

### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2252413050/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXXX +1.90%
- X Month XXXXXX +7%
- X Months XXXXXX +72%
- X Year XXXXXX +433%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2252413050/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #2025 [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  #3902 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXX% [countries](/list/countries)  XXXX% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  #907 [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  XXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies)  XXXX% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[stocks](/topic/stocks) #1110, [spx](/topic/spx) #2, [ai](/topic/ai) 2.73%, [over the](/topic/over-the) 2.19%, [vix](/topic/vix) #15, [level](/topic/level) #2278, [the first](/topic/the-first) 1.64%, [china](/topic/china) #4065, [core](/topic/core) #1737, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #299

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@finvizcom](/creator/undefined) [@xaviercomelli](/creator/undefined) [@dailychartbook](/creator/undefined) [@shlonjay](/creator/undefined) [@menthorqpro](/creator/undefined) [@nety_bar](/creator/undefined) [@subutrade](/creator/undefined) [@granthawkridge](/creator/undefined) [@themarketstats](/creator/undefined) [@almanactrader](/creator/undefined) [@toddsohn](/creator/undefined) [@jcparetsx](/creator/undefined) [@thetranscript](/creator/undefined) [@charliebilello](/creator/undefined) [@mikezaccardi](/creator/undefined) [@ryandetrick](/creator/undefined) [@livesquawk](/creator/undefined) [@makrotrader](/creator/undefined) [@dailychartbooks](/creator/undefined) [@fredzhang23](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL)](/topic/$mrvl) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)](/topic/$dltr) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD)](/topic/$wbd) [IBM (IBM)](/topic/ibm) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [OctoFi (OCTO)](/topic/$octo) [Caduceus Protocol (CAD)](/topic/$cad) [SPDR S&P XXX ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Deere & Company (DE)](/topic/$de) [Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL)](/topic/$dell) [WOOF (WOOF)](/topic/$woof) [Urban Outfitters Inc (URBN)](/topic/$urbn) [Workday Inc (WDAY)](/topic/$wday) [Nutanix, Inc. Class A Common Stock (NTNX)](/topic/$ntnx) [Zscaler Inc (ZS)](/topic/$zs) [Autodesk Inc (ADSK)](/topic/$adsk) [Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares (AMBA)](/topic/$amba) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [HP Inc (HPQ)](/topic/$hpq) [NetApp Inc. (NTAP)](/topic/$ntap) [Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS)](/topic/$snps) [Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)](/topic/coinbase) [Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN)](/topic/$wynn) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [Moderna Inc (MRNA)](/topic/$mrna)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Goldman has started a monthly "AI adoption tracker" that tracks AI related investment adoption and labor market impacts. There's a lot there so I'll put out a few notes on it. In terms of investment they say: "AI-related investment growth remains strong particularly for semiconductor firms where equity analysts expect revenue growth of XX% from current levels by the end of 2026. Revenue forecast revisions imply that semiconductor spending will rise from $258bn in 2025Q3 to $379bn in 2026Q4.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997299990071238676)  2025-12-06T13:40Z 18.7K followers, 49.3K engagements


"We got the first of our three #UST auctions this week with $58bn in 3yrs. First note the 3yr auctions for whatever reason had been some of the weakest over the XX auctions entering Sept tailing (yield above exps) X of those. Sept though was a different story with a very strong auction and while Oct was more mixed Nov was solid leading into todays auction which continued the trend of much better auctions post-August. Looking at the internals the bid/cover might have been the weakest part coming in at XXXX down from XXXX in Nov but that was the best since Aug XX and it was still a touch better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998130314233995713)  2025-12-08T20:39Z 18.7K followers, 2318 engagements


"MarketWatch: JPM strategist Mislav Matejka outlined his constructive approach on global equities for 2026 (but focusing ex-US) in a strategy note published Monday. Broadly speaking JPMorgan foresees bond yields on the lower side in 2026 owing to labor market uncertainty reduced trade uncertainty and a rapid AI rollout in the U.S. Elsewhere an improvement in Chinese growth prospects and a big pickup in European fiscal spending should give stock markets an upward impetus Matejka writes. With U.S. markets looking pricey on a XX price-to-earnings ratio JPMorgan retains its overweight preference"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998347023502983622)  2025-12-09T11:00Z 18.7K followers, 1265 engagements


"BoA (Hartnett): The Zeitgeist: Trump runs it hot oil bounces post Russia-Ukraine fix China keeps yuan cheap soon all the commodity charts will look like gold; what LatAm stocks telling you. The Biggest Picture: commodities like it hot GFC caused monetary excess fiscal austerity = bonds smoked commodities in era of secular stagnation; but COVID caused fiscal excess less monetary excess plus end of globalization = commodities smoking bonds in 2020s era of political populism & inflationary growth (Charts X & 5)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997274826898382921)  2025-12-06T12:00Z 18.7K followers, 39.2K engagements


"BoA on SPX gamma: SPX dealer gamma was positive but small in size last week (avg. of +$3.3bn) and ended Thursday at +$2.6bn (47th 1y %ile). Despite still being several weeks away from expiry the 31-Dec year-end options have the largest gamma footprint across all tenors. In particular the 31-Dec 7000 strike has $3bn of long gamma currently outstanding. If the S&P rallies towards the 7000 level into year-end (1.9% above current spot) there is room for gamma to grow materially and potentially act as dampening factor on realized vol during what is already a seasonally low vol time period. So BoA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998018474241863932)  2025-12-08T13:15Z 18.7K followers, 17.5K engagements


"Goldman (Garrett): i am amazed at the speed by which fear gets priced in and priced out in the modern market (this isnt your grandparents VIX) prior to 2011 the VIX index never retraced XX% of spot in a two week period (ie if vol went bid it stayed bid for a while) what was once unheard of . this dramatic retrace has already happened five times in the last twelve months (ie market panics vol goes bid the risk is sorted out and vega/gamma supply takes over en masse). last week saw one of the least volatile five day periods in history bbg has spx five day realized vol at XXX as of friday close"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998367020870746219)  2025-12-09T12:20Z 18.7K followers, 3687 engagements


"Today's big winner was $OCTO Eightco Holdings which surged +3000% (and was up over +6000% at the highs of the day) after Dan Ives was appointed to head its board and the firm announced a cryptocurrency treasury strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1965157390430732453)  2025-09-08T20:56Z 18.6K followers, 1781 engagements


"BoA (Hartnett): The Biggest Picture: peak easy financial conditions = trough credit spreads; wider tech (Wall St leader) bond spreads/credit default swaps as cash insufficient to finance AI capex arms race = wider credit spreads (Chart 2)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1989313616034857315)  2025-11-14T12:45Z 18.6K followers, 5425 engagements


"Goldman: The building blocks of our base case XXX% return forecast for SPX over the next decade consist of X% annualised earnings per share growth a X% annualised decline in valuations and a XXX% average dividend yield. While valuations have been the major determinant of the variation in returns from decade to decade earnings have been the primary driver of the returns themselves. For example since 1990 EPS growth has accounted for X percentage points of the X% annualised nominal S&P XXX price return. We expect earnings will remain the primary driver of equity returns during the next XX years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1990144087639597516)  2025-11-16T19:45Z 18.6K followers, 3841 engagements


"BoA: CTAs are stretched long $MXN and short $JPY and $CAD vs $USD (all at XXX% trend strength)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1990359263361761409)  2025-11-17T10:00Z 18.7K followers, 1957 engagements


"MarketWatch: Mandy Xu the Cboe's head of derivatives market intelligence notes that the spread between 1-month implied volatility on the Invesco $QQQ Trust Series ETF and the S&P XXX has continued to widen hitting a 1-year high meaning that traders are having to pay more to hedge risk in either direction. "In relative value space the QQQ-SPX implied volatility spread has widened notably with the 1-month vol spread surging to a 1-year high of XXX% as Tech valuations and AI concerns escalate" says Xu. Xu adds that all eyes will be on Nvidia this week with the options market implying a roughly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1990827088220504211)  2025-11-18T16:59Z 18.7K followers, 14.1K engagements


"BoA (Hartnett): peak-to-trough bitcoin -XX% ether -XX% (Chart 2); crypto just XXX% of institutional asset allocation (per BofA Nov FMS) but record XX retail inflows to crypto ($46bn) derivatives now XX% of crypto trading volumefrontier of liquidity & speculation will be first to sniff out Fed coming to rescue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1991850332834443273)  2025-11-21T12:45Z 18.6K followers, 1879 engagements


"Goldman: Mutual funds have increased their equity market exposure in recent months in a struggle to keep up with benchmarks. Only XX% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD unrounded the least since 2019 compared to an average of XX% since 2007. In response funds have reduced their cash allocations to XXX% of assets a record low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1992583914343612600)  2025-11-23T13:20Z 18.7K followers, 10.7K engagements


"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DE $DELL $ADSK $WOOF $HPQ $URBN $PD $DELL $WDAY $NTAP $NTNX $ZS $AMBA $HOOD $NVO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1993674720353607689)  2025-11-26T13:34Z 18.7K followers, 1813 engagements


"While AAII investors have expressed cautious sentiment this year their asset allocation hasn't really reflected it. As of the end of Oct they had the highest equity levels (70.5%) and lowest cash levels (14.7%) since 2021"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1994096382278348919)  2025-11-27T17:30Z 18.6K followers, 2794 engagements


"Goldman: Based on the details in the PPI and CPI reports we estimate that the core PCE price index rose XXXX% in September (vs. our expectation of XXXX% prior to the PPI report) corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.85%. Additionally we expect that the headline PCE price index increased XXXX% in September or increased XXXX% from a year earlier. We estimate that market-based core PCE which has been flagged by some members of the Fed as "more accurate" rose XXXX% in September. "The components relevant for core PCE were slightly softer on net than our expectations. While the passenger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1994108334559961293)  2025-11-27T18:17Z 18.6K followers, 3954 engagements


"Japan retail sales continued their rebound after falling into negative y/y territory in Aug for the first time since Feb '22 up +1.6% y/y in Oct above the +0.8% expected and the fastest pace since June. They were also up the same amount m/m from Sept. Sales were led by machinery and equipment (8.0%) pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (5.1%) automobiles (4.8%) other retail categories (3.6%) and department stores (3.1%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1994239573963231517)  2025-11-28T02:59Z 18.6K followers, 3903 engagements


"Goldman (Tuteja): In my view clients got a bit too excited heading into November and anecdotally even clients who had been bearish for months prior to November were playing for a year-end rally. The overwhelming consensus view was that we could rally from November through the end of January (potentially even have a blow off top moment) and then clients wanted to sell into that strength in early February once the AI story was more vulnerable to weaker forecasts and capex guidance. post the 29-Oct hawkish FOMC press conference though clients were quick to short the frothier non-profitable parts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1994387046274670758)  2025-11-28T12:45Z 18.6K followers, 46.8K engagements


"BoA left their 3Q GDP tracker at XXX% as of Tuesday as the miss in retail sales was offset by a larger than expected inventory build. They note that this is well below the X% the Atlanta Fed was forecasting on the same day which they say largely comes from Atlanta Feds higher equipment investment tracking via momentum carried forward from 2Q. Meanwhile we penciled in some slowdown in equipment investment in 3Q after the unsustainable growth rates seen in 1H25. Given our lack of precise visibility into the equipment investment inputs we think there is an upside risk to our 3Q GDP tracking." On"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1994426053151055989)  2025-11-28T15:20Z 18.6K followers, 2403 engagements


"Goldman for their part agrees that the Fed will soon announce "reserve management" purchases but like me sees a January start date: Our baseline is that reserve management purchases will begin in January 2026 with the Fed buying about $20bn Treasury bills per month on an outright basis in addition to the bill purchases to replace maturing MBS (which we expect to average around $20bn per month as well). We estimate that shift would gradually boost steady-state reserves to levels modestly above $3tn by the second half of 2026 (Exhibit 2)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995213744084066812)  2025-11-30T19:30Z 18.6K followers, 31.6K engagements


"BoA: Heading into Black Friday week spending on holiday items was tracking near 2023 levels +4.5% y/y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995221040814018837)  2025-11-30T19:59Z 18.6K followers, 1572 engagements


"In the special question this week AAII asked How would you describe the updated earnings guidance given by companies during the third-quarter 2025 earnings season Just XXX% said it was worse than expected. XXXX% said it was approximately as expected and XXXX% better than expected"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995243943060267491)  2025-11-30T21:30Z 18.6K followers, 2292 engagements


"The Citi Economic Surprise Index fell to +4.9 on Tuesday (after Sept retail sales etc.) the least since Sept before rebounding to end at +9.8 still around the bottom of its range over the past month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995310645911400949)  2025-12-01T01:55Z 18.6K followers, 1988 engagements


"The Week Ahead - 11/30/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income NOTE: I WILL BE TRAVELING THURS NIGHT-SUNDAY SO X POSTS WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES THOSE DAYS. I WILL PUT SOMETHING OUT ON SUNDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ABBREVIATED WEEK AHEAD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995317399289987264)  2025-12-01T02:21Z 18.6K followers, 10.3K engagements


"Ex-US highlights include global PMIs EU CPI and GDP and German factory orders along with French and Spanish industrial production Canada employment UK credit data Japan quarterly updates on GDP aggregates and policy rate decisions in India and Poland among others"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995322858222875098)  2025-12-01T02:43Z 18.6K followers, 2595 engagements


"With the increased volatility of late (remember upside volatility is the same as downside volatility to vol targeters) BoAs estimate of vol control (which they estimate at around $200bn of AUM) equity exposure fell under the October lows to the least since Aug"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995477732784783695)  2025-12-01T12:59Z 18.6K followers, 23.9K engagements


"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $SNPS $LEG $WYNN $NVDA $MU $MRVL $MRNA $COIN $MARA $CLSK $MRK $B $MSTR $EADSY $CPNG $HOOD $NFE $XPEV $NIO $CVX $TSLA $UN $PAX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995494094878200111)  2025-12-01T14:04Z 18.7K followers, 2170 engagements


"Tier1Alpha though says that the relatively high gamma from last week has carried over into this week: Notably our GVT index has climbed to a healthy XXXX implying these flows will have a meaningful effect on the equity market. Given we have a flurry of macro-driven calendar events this week these mechanical flows should help buffer any potential surprises at least initially"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995499375510835201)  2025-12-01T14:25Z 18.7K followers, 8408 engagements


"$XRT State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF is bucking the negative day in stocks up +0.6% taking its gain over the past X sessions to XXXX% just a hair beneath the XXXX% in June 2023. If that's exceeded it will be the best since the XX% gain in Feb '23"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995583671966073202)  2025-12-01T19:59Z 18.6K followers, 1356 engagements


"Just one SPX component reporting tomorrow in CrowdStrike CRWD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995651628415025214)  2025-12-02T00:30Z 18.7K followers, 2133 engagements


"BoA: The Global Wave moved sideways again last month as four components improved and three components moderated. It seems economic-based indicators have disconnected with equity market performance this year prompting the question of whether markets have run too far or whether economic indicators could start to improve. Given that Global Earnings Revision Ratio has been improving and our Global News Pulse has jumped at a time when many central banks are in easing mode it seems plausible that economic-based indicators are more likely to improve than deteriorate from this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996165012851974239)  2025-12-03T10:30Z 18.7K followers, 1485 engagements


"Nov #ADP falls back into negative territory for the third month in four (and fourth in six) -32k the most job losses since March XX from +47k in Oct (revised from +42k). It was well under expectations for +10k and is the worst string of job gains since early in the pandemic. The 3-mth average fell to -13k with both goods and services sectors seeing job losses and just a few subsectors seeing job gains. "Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment said Dr. Nela Richardson chief economist ADP. And while Novembers slowdown was"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996218051100877291)  2025-12-03T14:00Z 18.7K followers, 4502 engagements


"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $AEO $MRVL $ACHC $OKTA $CXM $MCHP $ASAN $M $CRWD $BOX $GTLB $PSTG $DAL $UBER $RBC $DLTR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996219403763863935)  2025-12-03T14:06Z 18.6K followers, 1923 engagements


"The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed Wed as it continued to trade sideways for a fifth session. Major equity indices in the Asia-Pacific were again mixed. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Japans Nikkei: +1.1% Hong Kongs Hang Seng: -XXX% Chinas Shanghai Composite: -XXX% Indias Sensex: UNCH South Koreas Kospi: +1.0% Australias ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%. In news: Taiwan expressed thanks and China was upset on Wednesday after President Donald Trump signed into law legislation requiring the U.S. State Department to regularly review and update guidelines on how the United"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996230818067345800)  2025-12-03T14:51Z 18.6K followers, 1694 engagements


"While there have been a lot of concerns over lower-income consumers both $DLTR Dollar Tree and $DG Dollar General have seen shares pop after earnings (with the latter near 16-mth highs and the former on track for its best year since 2010) as both raised their outlooks with comp-store sales above estimates. Both did flag disproportionate growth coming from higher-income households" although Dollar Tree said it was their "core" consumers who were leading the spending growth even as XX% of new shoppers had incomes in excess of $100k. Spending by the lower income groups grew twice as fast they"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996602897006481909)  2025-12-04T15:30Z 18.7K followers, 1858 engagements


"Goldman with some more evidence that we're likely to see initial claims pop back higher in coming weeks. They note while the seasonal adjustment expected only a -22k decline (vs the -49k actual non-seasonally adjusted decline we got) "in previous Thanksgiving weeks with a similar calendar configuration to this years non-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) initial claims have fallen by about 45k" meaning the decline should have been much smaller"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996606671851061436)  2025-12-04T15:45Z 18.6K followers, 2141 engagements


"@Makro_trader It's the same idea. Both in confirmed uptrends. Why quibble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996689609544122414)  2025-12-04T21:14Z 18.7K followers, XX engagements


"Goldman (Marshall): The recent (1-month) decline in funding spreads shows that global macro investors have been lightening up on equities even as the SPX rebounded to near all-time-highs. Based solely on this one would expect a statistically insignificant decline in the SPX over the next three months. We will be closely watching to see how institutional positioning moves as monetary policy expectations are in focus over the next two weeks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996917470108467427)  2025-12-05T12:20Z 18.6K followers, 3524 engagements


"Tickers making moves at mid-day from CNBC. $NFLX $WBD $PSKY $CMCSA $PSN $ALB $COO $RBRK $ULTA $SOFI $DOCU $VSCO $S"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997015741720416632)  2025-12-05T18:50Z 18.7K followers, 2064 engagements


"For the week the indices were able to make some upward progress but just 1-2% moving from early losses to moderate gains led by the Nasdaq/RUT at +0.9/+0.8%. DJIA was +0.5% SPX +0.3%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997050547636220328)  2025-12-05T21:08Z 18.6K followers, 2383 engagements


""AI mania is in full swing in China." Investors rushed to snap up shares of artificial-intelligence chip maker Moore Threads a company founded in 2020 by former Nvidia executive Zhang Jianzhong which soared more than fivefold on its market debut Friday after raising the equivalent of more than $X billion in a hot initial public offering. It ended the day with a market capitalization of XXXXX billion yuan equivalent to slightly under $XX billion according to LSEG data. Nvidia is worth nearly $XXX trillion. Like Zhangs former employer Moore Threads designs chips known as graphics processing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997259731841200202)  2025-12-06T11:00Z 18.7K followers, 3842 engagements


"BBG; The VIX index of expected equity volatility is hovering near year-to-date lows. The MOVE Index of expected bond volatility just touched its quietest level since early 2021. Tail-risk hedges have been unwound. And Bank of America's GFSI Market Risk indicator which tracks implied risk across a broad sample of asset classes is back in negative territory and hovering near where it stood before the Fed began raising rates (chart). Mandy Xu who heads ups derivatives market intelligence at the CBOE sees the calm as fragile. A divided Fed or even a hawkish cut could be a catalyst for more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997380269263716824)  2025-12-06T18:59Z 18.7K followers, 5052 engagements


"Rubner: Following NVDA earnings we saw a sharp pickup in intraday moves across the tape. SPX logged nine consecutive sessions with intraday swings greater than 128bps while NDX and RTY showed similar behavior (179bps and 148bps respectively). All three indices posted their largest weekly average intraday ranges since April. The last two weeks however finally brought signs of stabilization"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997712530333167769)  2025-12-07T16:59Z 18.7K followers, 7512 engagements


"@shlonjay It's not "stretched" if it's rising in line with the underlying. It's like saying home mortgage borrowers are "stretched" because home loans are bigger ignoring the fact that homes are also worth more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997817713708929286)  2025-12-07T23:57Z 18.7K followers, XX engagements


"The monthly $DXY chart is mixed as while the monthly MACD remains in go short positioning the 50-month moving average is still moving higher (but is also above the current level)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995266339334938733)  2025-11-30T22:59Z 18.7K followers, 1769 engagements


"CNBC: $XLK the SPDR S&P Information Technology ETF was up for a 10th straight session Friday (gaining around XXX% over that time) its longest streak since Sep 2020. Interestingly that streak was followed immediately by a -XX% pullback"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997282374103568631)  2025-12-06T12:30Z 18.7K followers, 3661 engagements


"Citadel's Rubner: The U.S. equity market has meaningfully healed after a period dominated by non-fundamental technical dynamics. With XX trading days left in 2025 our stance remains constructive. The supply and demand mismatch has turned decisively in favor of the buyside and if indices push to new highs FOMO-driven chase behavior could accelerate. Retail investors this years primary price setter continue to hold the hottest hand and remain fully engaged. I spent this week meeting clients across two cities and the feedback was strikingly consistent: What is the playbook for 2026 All clear"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997652320599879903)  2025-12-07T13:00Z 18.7K followers, 32.9K engagements


"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & Note CNBC is reporting that IBMdid announce Monday that it is acquiring Confluentin a deal worth $XX billion. $IBM $CFLT $AVGO $MRVL $LITE $CVNA $CRH $BRK $CRWV $GIVE $TSLA $MSFT $NEE $GOOG $NFLX $WBD $FIX $UL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998027588896207195)  2025-12-08T13:51Z 18.7K followers, 2092 engagements


"Oppenheimer Asset Managements John Stoltzfus sees the S&P XXX rallying XX% next year to 8100 becoming the most optimistic forecaster among those tracked by Bloomberg for a third year running. Last year he called for a 7100 finish (which he did cut in April before returning to 7100 in July). At the core of what lies ahead for our 2026 target price to be achieved lies monetary policy fiscal policy and the continuing progress of innovation and corporate earnings growth all of which have been supportive of stock prices and are key to growing earnings and revenues in the year ahead the team said."  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998054965542330814)  2025-12-08T15:40Z 18.7K followers, 3560 engagements


"$XLK the SPDR S&P Information Technology ETF on pace for an 11th straight positive session Monday which would be its longest winning streak since its record 13-session streak in Feb 2017 (charts as of 10.30am ET)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998067421501075572)  2025-12-08T16:29Z 18.7K followers, 8148 engagements


"1-Day VIX unlike the VIX and VVIX edged lower to the lowest close since Oct 27th at XXX. That level implies a XXXX% move in the SPX next session"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998180801750733018)  2025-12-09T00:00Z 18.7K followers, 9470 engagements


"Interestingly while BoA models CTAs as big sellers (-$97bn) in global equities in a "down tape" this week as this post from @dailychartbook's nightly email shows Goldman sees a much more mild -$2.8bn of selling. But this is where you have to read the fine print as these Goldman estimates use one standard deviation moves vs Goldman's normal XXX for an up move and XXX for a down move. Anyway what I wanted to focus more on is for the SPX Goldman models CTA buying in all price paths within one standard deviation (which is XXX% move) and as John Marshall would say $X or $9bn is "not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998356954876424239)  2025-12-09T11:40Z 18.7K followers, 9354 engagements


"In oral arguments Monday surrounding the suit by Rebecca Kelly Slaughter a former Federal Trade Commissioner regarding the ability for the President to remove such an official without cause (meaning some reason such as malfeasance) it appears the conservatives are going to give the President his wish based on the questioning which appeared to spell the end for the 1935 Humphreys Executor ruling which protected members of administrative agencies (agencies created by Congress but administered by the Executive branch). That is despite the Federal Trade Commission Act explicitly stating a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998372054681387453)  2025-12-09T12:40Z 18.7K followers, 1783 engagements


"Yardeni: As we've said before the neutral FFR concept is nonsense. Last year the Fed eased by cutting the FFR by 100bps. We disagreed with that move arguing that the economy didn't need such easing and that the Bond Vigilantes were likely to dissent. Sure enough the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 100bps late last year (chart). The same may be happening this year. Despite cutting the FFR by 50bps in September and October and another 25bps coming on Wednesday the bond yield has been hovering just above XXXX% since August. It is basically at the same level as it was when the Fed started its"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998377205609431393)  2025-12-09T13:00Z 18.7K followers, 44K engagements


"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $AVAV $GME $CBRL $BRZE $GEV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998533166848434323)  2025-12-09T23:20Z 18.7K followers, 2198 engagements


"According to Factset revenue growth will slow from here: analysts believe the S&P XXX will report lower revenue growth over the next five quarters. For Q4 2025 through Q4 2026 the estimated (year-over-year) revenue growth rates for the S&P XXX are XXX% XXX% XXX% XXX% and XXX% respectively"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1995568586270621861)  2025-12-01T19:00Z 18.7K followers, 7711 engagements


"$DXY dollar index on track for its 7th straight decline the longest since a similar length streak in July 2020. This one has been much more mild in terms of total losses though with less than half the decline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996315517485805950)  2025-12-03T20:28Z 18.7K followers, 3309 engagements


"1-mth T-Bill rates also almost fully pricing in a Fed rate cut next week falling as low as XXXX% Friday the least since Apr '23 (which will also mean short-term interest income will also be the lowest in over XXX yrs). The Fed Funds midpoint with a cut next week would be 3.625%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997327673467551972)  2025-12-06T15:30Z 18.7K followers, 7182 engagements


"Q3 earnings season will continue to wrap-up this week with again X SPX components (per TradingView) but two in particular will be of note in $1tn Broadcom (AVGO) and former near $1tn Oracle (ORCL). The former will be closely monitored for updates on the AI ecosystem while the latter faces increased investor scrutiny on its debt plans cash flow trajectory and $300B OpenAI deal after the stock retraced all of its gains following that announcement. And there are two other reporters $100bn in market cap who will also get some attention in Costco (COST) and Adobe (ADBE)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997825956426514515)  2025-12-08T00:30Z 18.7K followers, 2884 engagements


"While volumes were light Friday what volume we did see was quite good with positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) on the NYSE at XXXX% up from XXXX% Thursday even as the index gain moderated to +0.51% from +0.75% while over on the Nasdaq positive volume moved to XXXX% from XXXX% even as the index gain moderated to +0.65% from +0.82%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1994851356335903152)  2025-11-29T19:30Z 18.7K followers, 1830 engagements


"Goldman: The pace of central bank easing has slowed with XX% of DMs lowering policy rates over the last three months (on a GDP-weighted basis) and only XX% EMs lowering policy rates over the same period"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996527401484894237)  2025-12-04T10:30Z 18.7K followers, 6832 engagements


"Morningstar: As of Nov. XX 2025 the US equity market was trading at a X% discount to a composite of our fair value estimates of the over XXX stocks we cover that trade on US exchanges. By percentage of our coverage over the course of November we increased our fair values on XX% of our coverage outpacing the number of declines by a 2-to-1 ratio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996534959549333769)  2025-12-04T11:00Z 18.7K followers, 1273 engagements


"BCA: The X percent increase in the unemployment rate through the past two-and-a-half years has been at the most glacial paceeverand therefore not recessionary. A phase-shift to recession happens because feedback loops kick in accelerating the increase in unemployment. Specifically a lack of hiring is made much worse by the start of large-scale firing. Hence the phase-shift to recession requires large-scale firing. Put the other way: No large-scale firing means no labour market recession. (italics in the original)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1996927538581721428)  2025-12-05T13:00Z 18.7K followers, 5338 engagements


"BBG: BlackRock Inc.s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF $IBIT recorded its longest streak of weekly withdrawals since debuting in January 2024. Investors pulled more than $XXX billion from the exchange-traded fund over the five weeks to Nov. XX according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With an additional $XXX million of redemptions on Thursday the ETF is now on pace for a sixth straight week of net outflows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997040784533573897)  2025-12-05T20:30Z 18.7K followers, 2244 engagements


"The Fed though will be the star of the show in the upcoming week with the decision on Wednesday along with a new statement SEP and press conference. Markets (and most commentators) have firmly settled on a hawkish cut meaning well get a 25bps cut but a lean towards a slower pace of cuts thereafter (current pricing has just around a XX% chance that we get cuts in both Dec & Jan) with plenty of language about data dependency etc. That said many (like Goldman & BoA) think the Fed wont want to box itself in so wont rule out a Jan cut. Were also likely to get dueling dissents again with Miran a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997841055580864939)  2025-12-08T01:30Z 18.7K followers, 1692 engagements


"BoA like most is looking for a 25bps cut Wed: with around three dissents: two hawkish (Schmid and one other rotating voter i.e. Collins Musalem or Goolsbee) and one dovish (Miran in favor of a 50bp cut). We see a risk of additional dissents from Bowman and/or Waller if the Fed implements the balance sheet measures that our Rates Strategists are anticipating (more below). We look for two or three substantive changes in the FOMC statement. The description of labor market conditions is likely to omit the language that the u-rate remained low to reflect the 32bp uptick over the last three months."  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1997848101688590742)  2025-12-08T01:58Z 18.7K followers, 6231 engagements


"Nov NY Fed consumer survey (I like better than UMich b/c it follows a consistent panel of 1300 h/hs) saw inflation expectations hold steady across the board: -At the 1-yr horizon for a second month at XXX% (down from XXX% in Apr which was the highest since Oct 23) -At the 3-yr horizon for a sixth month at XXX% (down from XXX% in Apr the highest since July 2022) -At the 5-yr horizon for a third month at a joint record high of XXX% (which has been hit several times since the series started in Jan 22). UMich was at XXX% for 1-yr expectations and XXX% for 5+ yr expectations. Also the measure of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998118733781307818)  2025-12-08T19:53Z 18.7K followers, 2250 engagements


"While breadth was poor Nasdaq positive volume (% of total volume that was in advancing stocks) was very solid Mon at XXXX% up from Friday's XXXX% even as the index lost -XXXX% versus Fridays +0.32% gain. While definitely helped by a jump in trading in penny stock $PAVS (1.3bn shares traded vs 300mn Fri) it was still a notable improvement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998154545105367237)  2025-12-08T22:15Z 18.7K followers, 2314 engagements


"Goldman: Meanwhile inflation risk has continued to recede. There are now several estimates available of the cumulative impact of tariffs on year-on-year inflation so farour own at 0.5pp as well as similar to slightly larger estimates from the Fed Board staff St. Louis Fed economists and the Harvard Pricing Lab. This implies that core PCE inflation net of tariffs effects has trended lower this year to roughly 2.3%. We expect core inflation net of tariff effects to reach X% by the first half of 2026 as labor market rebalancing and the fading of catch-up inflation provide a modest further"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998456485970587844)  2025-12-09T18:15Z 18.7K followers, 2854 engagements


"Factset: 2025 earnings expectations on a numeric basis saw a bump higher two weeks ago following NVDAs earnings and edged a little higher last week to $XXXXXX (+$0.60 the past X weeks). That represents a very healthy growth rate of +11.9% y/y down just -XXX% since Dec 31st (much less deterioration than normal but around average for non-recessions). 2026 earnings expectations have seen an even bigger improvement to $XXXXXX (+$2.61 the past X weeks) representing even stronger XXXX% y/y growth down just -XXX% from the start of the year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998471458943807841)  2025-12-09T19:15Z 18.7K followers, 1952 engagements


"Markets Update - 12/9/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $BTC $UNG #oott"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998537252818006510)  2025-12-09T23:36Z 18.7K followers, 2752 engagements


"Jeff Hirsch editor of the Stock Traders Almanac ascribes what is normally a choppy first half of December to tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring as a modest rally through the around the sixth trading day has also fizzled going into mid-month. It is around this point that holiday cheer tends to kick in (and tax-loss selling pressure generally fades) propelling the indexes higher with a pause near month-end. Post-election year Decembers have followed a similar path but with varying degrees of over- and under-performance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998010925089976468)  2025-12-08T12:45Z 18.7K followers, 2708 engagements


"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are indicated to open modestly higher as they look for a third week of gains and record highs with news boosting some tech names. Broadcom shares were up almost X% on the heels of The Information reporting that Microsoft is discussing designing custom chips with the chipmaker. Confluent shares surged XX% after IBM said that its going to acquire the company in an $XX billion deal which is expected to close by the middle of 2026. President Trump meanwhile raised potential antitrust concerns on the planned takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. by"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998030363558351182)  2025-12-08T14:02Z 18.7K followers, 1914 engagements


"The MSCI Asia Pacific Index started the week +0.2% up for a fifth straight session to a 3-week high. Major equity indices in the Asia-Pacific ended Monday on a mixed note. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Japans Nikkei: +0.1% Hong Kongs Hang Seng: -XXX% Chinas Shanghai Composite: +0.5% Indias Sensex: -XXX% South Koreas Kospi: +1.3% Australias All Ordinaries: -0.1%. In news: Beijing and Tokyo traded complaints against each other as their simmering diplomatic spat intensified over the weekend after Chinese fighter aircraft allegedly trained their fire-control radar systems on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998034203800121785)  2025-12-08T14:17Z 18.7K followers, 1842 engagements


"The 10yr #UST yield up for a third session to XXXX% the highest close since Sept 26th"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998131720122662957)  2025-12-08T20:45Z 18.7K followers, 3447 engagements


"SPX stock-by-stock flag from @finviz_com consistent with a more balanced look. In that regard six of the top XX were higher up from three Mon led by WMTs +1.32% (edging out AVGO +1.29% which led Mon +2.8%). LLY led decliners -XXXX% (its now down each of the last nine sessions totaling -11.5%) edging out META -1.48%. Mag-7 was +0.3%. XX SPX components were up X% or more up from X Mon but down from XX a week ago led by Newmont NEM +5.7% on no particular news other than a couple of minor upgrades. NEM APP KKR BX were the $100bn in market cap up more than X% (in descending order of percentage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998509962847523096)  2025-12-09T21:48Z 18.7K followers, 1728 engagements


"With the FOMC tomorrow 1-Day VIX jumped to XXXX but that is relatively low for a Fed Day implying just a XXXX% move in the SPX next session. In comparison it was XXXX before the Sept FOMC decision"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1998543182204735976)  2025-12-10T00:00Z 18.7K followers, 17.5K engagements