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# ![@neilksethi Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2252413050.png) @neilksethi Neil Sethi

US equity markets are experiencing a mix of positive and negative trends, with strong earnings reports from major companies such as banks and tech firms, but also concerns about volatility and potential economic uncertainty. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with some investors expecting a cut as early as October. Despite some bearish sentiments, many strategists remain constructive on the market, citing strengthening corporate fundamentals and a historically strong November.

### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2252413050/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX +2%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +16%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +138%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +694%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2252413050/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX +0.85%
- X Month XXX -X%
- X Months XXXXX -XXXX%
- X Year XXXXX +51%

### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2252413050/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXXX +2.30%
- X Month XXXXXX +9.80%
- X Months XXXXXX +99%
- X Year XXXXXX +576%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2252413050/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/influence)
---

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXX% [countries](/list/countries)  XXXX% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  #1128 [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies)  XXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  XXXX% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  XXXX% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[stocks](/topic/stocks) #2757, [fed](/topic/fed) #147, [spx](/topic/spx) #57, [fomc](/topic/fomc) #4, [$gld](/topic/$gld) #13, [vix](/topic/vix) #111, [over the](/topic/over-the) #2097, [china](/topic/china) 0.33%, [$dxy](/topic/$dxy) #2, [$tnx](/topic/$tnx) #1

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@dailychartbook](/creator/undefined) [@rymondinckenya](/creator/undefined) [@jjperaltaa](/creator/undefined) [@sethcl](/creator/undefined) [@chartfest1](/creator/undefined) [@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@thechartreport](/creator/undefined) [@mikezaccardi](/creator/undefined) [@finvizcom](/creator/undefined) [@sonusvarghese](/creator/undefined) [@c_barraud](/creator/undefined) [@ryandetrick](/creator/undefined) [@skepticalcrypto](/creator/undefined) [@rem26020](/creator/undefined) [@marketprophit](/creator/undefined) [@ericsoda](/creator/undefined) [@barchart](/creator/undefined) [@subutrade](/creator/undefined) [@baldrick531](/creator/undefined) [@marlincapital](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)](/topic/$gld) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [iShares BTC Trust (IBIT)](/topic/$ibit) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [Bank of America (BAC)](/topic/bank-of-america) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Alibaba Group (BABA)](/topic/$baba) [Artificial Intelligence (AI4)](/topic/$ai4) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) [Synchrony Financial (SYF)](/topic/$syf) [Basis Cash (BAC)](/topic/$bac) [United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)](/topic/$ual) [Citigroup Inc (C)](/topic/citigroup) [J B Hunt Transport Services Inc (JBHT)](/topic/$jbht) [Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)](/topic/charles-schwab) [Zions Bancorporation, NA. (ZION)](/topic/$zion) [Walrus (WAL)](/topic/$wal) [Truist Financial Corp (TFC)](/topic/truist-financial-corp) [Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)](/topic/fifth-third-bancorp) [Lithium Americas Corp. Common Shares (LAC)](/topic/$lac) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Doug The Duck (DOUG)](/topic/$doug) [Edu3Labs (NFE)](/topic/$nfe) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Mario Coin (COIN)](/topic/$coin) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Landwolf (WOLF)](/topic/$wolf) [Alien Base (ALB)](/topic/$alb) [Applovin Corporation (APP)](/topic/applovin) [Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD)](/topic/$gold) [DAOLaunch (DAL)](/topic/$dal)
### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::2252413050/posts)
---
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $BABA $LAC $ORCL $MU $COIN $MLKN $DOUG $MSFT $NVDA $NFE $WOLF $ALB $AMZN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1970833703040348558) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-09-24T12:52Z 16.3K followers, 1993 engagements


"CNBC: The Invesco $QQQ Trust tracking the largest XXX stocks on the Nasdaq is on pace for a 107th straight close above its 50-day moving average (since late April). Assuming it holds to the close the streak would tie QQQs longest above its 50DMA since 2017. Over that span the ETF is up about XX% powered by breakouts in names like AppLovin Micron Technology Warner Bros. Discovery and Lam Research each of which has roughly doubled. Staying above a rising 50DMA for this long isnt common and usually signals durable momentum and buying on dips. But streaks dont often end quietly; when momentum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1973830254322962649) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-02T19:19Z 16.3K followers, 12.5K engagements


"$GOLD spot gold the most overbought since August 2020. $GLD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1976034487030120685) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-08T21:18Z 16.3K followers, 1730 engagements


"Citi: the recent $USDJPY move does not look in line with fundamentals raising FX intervention risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1976218580870906281) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-09T09:30Z 16.3K followers, 2005 engagements


"$DAL Delta shares jumping +7.4% pre-market edging back into the green for the year after raising guidance for the current quarter on continued strong premium travel demand (even as there's been weakening in the main cabin) and saying next year "Delta is well positioned to deliver top-line growth margin expansion and earnings improvement consistent with our long-term financial framework CEO Ed Bastian said in an earnings release. Starting in July cash sales picked up Bastian said in an interview. Premium-travel demand continued to outshine the coach cabin where though revenues fell. Sales from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1976266015467008256) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-09T12:38Z 16.3K followers, 4439 engagements


"MarketWatch: Spending by a handful of big technology companies on artificial intelligence is expected to deliver XX% of the S&P XXX index's growth in business investments this year according to a tally from Lawrence Pfeffer equity-sector analyst at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The broader index excluding Alphabet Meta Microsoft Amazon and Oracle was pegged to grow only X% in 2025 according to FactSet estimates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1976709318969094575) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-10T18:00Z 16.3K followers, 2010 engagements


"BoA on CTAs in the $USD: In FX the US dollar was able to hold on to gains this week despite falling on Friday with the tariff news. This weeks moves may have caused some trend followers to cover USD shorts vs $EUR $GBP and $AUD but positioning is still broadly short USD with the exception of $JPY where CTAs are short vs USD. Our model indicates that CTAs could buy USD vs all currencies we track in this report next week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1977313302297330056) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-12T10:00Z 16.3K followers, 3379 engagements


"MarketWatch: A monday note from SentimentTrader indicated "a rare combination of events" occurred recently: In a 21-day period 1) the S&P XXX posted a new all-time high 2) booked its biggest daily percentage drop over a 125-session period and 3) the VIX saw a single-day rate of change that exceeds 31%. "When this rare combination of events has occurred in the past the S&P 500's performance has followed a distinct and potentially deceptive pattern" with its initial bounce giving way to "a period of significant weakness" the firm said. Historically a "significant portion of these signals were"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1977822130306715692) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-13T19:41Z 16.3K followers, 9512 engagements


"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are giving back much of Mondays bounce despite a swath of better than expected big bank earnings as tensions with China remain high after sanctions were placed on five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipping company Hanwha Ocean. The data calendar remains light with the shutdown but we will hear from a number of Fed officials today most importantly Chair Powell a little after noon ET at the annual meeting of the National Association of Business Economics. In addition to Powell Governors Bowman and Waller are on the schedule as is Boston Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978091608433107047) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-14T13:32Z 16.3K followers, 1884 engagements


"Torbjorn Tornqvist chief executive officer of Gunvor Group also said in an interview in London on Tuesday that he sees signs of surplus emerging in crude markets: It looks like we are now moving into a bit of a different market Tornqvist said. We have heard it before and people have been burned on that. But this time around at this stage I think theres a bit more substance in the oversupplied narrative. Theres a great deal more oil hitting the market at the time where there is no additional demand for it said Tornqvist who co-founded Gunvor and helped turn it to be one of the biggest traders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978143766629515541) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-14T17:00Z 16.3K followers, 2784 engagements


"We dont think it is entirely over said Julian Emanuel chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI who has been bullish most of the year with one of the highest targets on Wall Street referring to Fridays selloff. Although his team believes a meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will occur at the end of the month as the White House indicated the heightened uncertainty and increased volatility is likely to cause degrossing from active managers particularly systematic funds. The spat around rare earth minerals on Friday was a catalyst for an overdue pullback he said"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978173964615884860) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-14T19:00Z 16.3K followers, 2512 engagements


"The 2yr yield more sensitive to FOMC rate cut pricing dropped -5bps Tuesday after reopening from the Monday holiday to XXXX% the lowest since Sept XX. It is -68bps below the Fed Funds midpoint so calling loudly for rate cuts. The red line (the Effective Fed Funds Rate) which edged up another basis point Thursday after moving up a basis point on Sept 23rd also was unch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978209688081604879) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-14T21:21Z 16.3K followers, 1846 engagements


"1-Day VIX like the VIX & VVIX pushed back higher but unlike those didnt reach Fridays highs and ended at XXXX. Still that level is implying an XXXX% move in the SPX next session"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978234361972683261) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-14T23:00Z 16.3K followers, 1656 engagements


"Earnings season continues Wednesday as we get more banks along with a broader array of non-bank reporters (although none as big as JPM). In total well get X SPX reports but fewer $100bn in market cap with BAC MS ABT PLD (in descending order of market cap)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978241913099796945) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-14T23:30Z 16.3K followers, 2953 engagements


"Chinas deflation eased in September but left the country on track for the longest streak of economy-wide price declines since market reforms in the late 1970s even as core consumer prices hit a 19-month high. Under pressure from falling food costs consumer prices dropped -XXX% the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday below the median estimate of -XXX% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. That said the core consumer price index excluding food and energy rose to a 19-month high of 1%. Producer prices remained more firmly in deflation falling -XXX% from a year earlier the 36th straight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978291462920966566) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T02:46Z 16.3K followers, 16.3K engagements


"In terms of consumer read through BoA notes a variety of positives from the big bank results on Tuesday: Results across large banks Citi (C) Wells Fargo (WFC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) should be positively received by consumer finance investors in our view. Consumers continue to spend and credit trends remain favorable. - Average card volume growth (debit and credit) for the three banks in 3Q25 was +6.7% y/y an acceleration from XXX% in 2Q25. - In 3Q the three banks saw loan growth slightly decelerate to an average of +4.3% y/y vs. +4.5% in 2Q. - The average net charge-off (NCO) rate across"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978400466087088488) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T10:00Z 16.3K followers, 1719 engagements


"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading solidly higher on the back of another slate of strong earnings this morning with Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley climbing more than X% in early trade after solid earnings beats Across the pond chip equipment maker ASML is up over X% after seeing better than expected AI bookings while luxury goods maker LVMH jumped XX% following an unexpected return to growth. The positive equity action comes despite continued tit-for-tat comments from China leadership and Pres Trump. The calendar for the day again dominated by the Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978451618904395981) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T13:23Z 16.3K followers, 2141 engagements


"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $HLT $HAS $T $COF $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP $RKT $NOK $ASML $MS $MCO $GEV $LII"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1947999360307900837) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-07-23T12:36Z 16.3K followers, 3133 engagements


"$CHTR Shares of Charter Communications plunged XX% on Friday putting the stock on pace for its worst day ever after the company reported losing 117000 broadband and 80000 video subscribers in the second quarter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1948833129692852289) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-07-25T19:50Z 16.3K followers, 1262 engagements


"BBG: Short-term implied volatility across major assets has fallen below long-term averages reaching levels not seen consistently in around four years according to Cboe Global Markets. For Mandy Xu Cboes head of derivatives market intelligence this prevailing calm is rooted in the economic story. Despite all the tariff chaos the consumer has held up inflation is still in check and the Fed is about to cut said Xu Until that narrative changes I think volatility is likely to remain in check in the near-term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1961785980211569056) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-08-30T13:40Z 16.3K followers, 4053 engagements


"As you know if you read my RRP updates RRP levels have finally dropped to the near zero levels I had been waiting (seemingly endlessly) for. That continued this week with them spending the week just above the $20bn mark (effectively zero) before dropping to $17bn Friday the least since 2021. As a reminder now that RRP levels have drained to minimum levels attention turns to bank reserves"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1967302329977229748) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-09-14T19:00Z 16.3K followers, 5692 engagements


"Tier1Alpha: 10-day realized volatility is exceptionally low at XXXX. while implied volatility remains well bid with the VIX at 16.2almost XX points higher than one-month SPX realized volatility. This represents an implied risk premium in the 93rd percentile. Whether the VIX is too high or realized volatility too low remains uncertain though its worth noting that a VRP this wide has historically been common near all-time highs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1973724453122007492) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-02T12:19Z 16.3K followers, 1759 engagements


"BBG: On the back of OpenAIs pacts with a group of South Korean chipmakers as well as a report that Intel is in talks to add Advanced Micro Devices as a customer the combined market capitalization of the $SOXX Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index and a gauge tracking Asia chip stocks jumped over $XXX billion in the latest session. The recent rally has caused a spike in chipmakers valuations: Bloombergs Asia chip gauge is trading at around XX times forward earnings estimates while the SOX Index is now trading at XX times earnings approaching record highs from 2024. Tech momentum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1973729647071203754) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-02T12:39Z 16.3K followers, 4620 engagements


"With RRP having fallen effectively to zero in mid-Aug the cushion it provided to bank reserves is gone and bank reserves have been falling every week in fact since Aug 6th this last week by another -$10bn to $2.98tn down from $3.6tn Apr 10th (the highs of the year) and the least since the end of April and now edging into the danger zone level of sub-$3tn (a level that when it was breached catalyzed the indigestion in the credit markets in March XX (in part leading to the banking crisis) and again causing issues last April (Robert Perli head of the SOMA desk of the NY Fed confirmed we did see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1974847041730961531) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-05T14:40Z 16.3K followers, 2231 engagements


"BBG: The Barclays Equity Timing Indicator which analyzes XX inputs like market internals positioning and economic data to find inflection points in the market suggests further scope for the S&P XXX Index to keep rising. Right now the measure implies an XX% chance that the S&P XXX will advance in the next two months with an average gain of X% during that time based on data going back to 2015. BETI predicted last months rally an out of-consensus call that some trading desks across Wall Street got wrong as they anticipated seasonal weakness to hit US stocks. If youre bullish then this is of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1975520227913048179) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-07T11:15Z 16.3K followers, 1814 engagements


"CNBC: In addition to Citadel's Ken Griffin you can add Robert Kaplan vice chairman at Goldman Sachs to those concerned the signal coming from the gold rally. I would tell you gold being up almost XX% year to date that should be getting our attention Kaplan told CNBCs Squawk on the Street. Thats a red light that we ought to be paying attention to. "The 10-year Treasury is not behaving like a safe haven right now. Gold is acting like the safe haven. Normally when theres stress in the government theres geopolitical issues you would see a bigger rally in the 10-year. We havent seen that Kaplan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1975614601074249756) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-07T17:30Z 16.3K followers, 7130 engagements


"$DXY dollar index (which as a reminder is very euro heavy (57%) and not trade weighted) continues the breakout I've been writing about now at what would be the highest close since July and over the downtrend line from the May peak. The daily MACD is now into a go long positioning (moving over the X line) and the RSI is the strongest since late July. Next logical resistance point is that XXX level. MarketWatch: According to Kit Juckes a veteran macro strategist at Socit Gnrale the forces boosting the buck are largely two-fold: An economic-data blackout in the U.S. due to the government"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1975957886099415464) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-08T16:14Z 16.3K followers, 8009 engagements


"Meanwhile Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said investors should allocate as much as XX% of their portfolios to gold. Gold is a very excellent diversifier in the portfolio Dalio said Tuesday at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Greenwich Connecticut. If you look at it just from a strategic asset allocation perspective you would probably have something like XX% of your portfolio in gold because it is one asset that does very well when the typical parts of the portfolio go down. The billionaire investor compared todays environment to the early 1970s when inflation heavy government"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1975976988792803685) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-08T17:30Z 16.3K followers, 3336 engagements


"The speculative juices were flowing Wed with the most recent penny stock toy $YYAI going from 385mn shares traded Tues on the Nasdaq to over 1bn Wed. Another $ADAP was over 500mn and $OPEN over 200mn. XX stocks were over 100mn in volume on the Nasdaq with X of them having no fundamental news in the past XX hours"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1976030414700511662) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-08T21:02Z 16.3K followers, 2436 engagements


"Morningstar: A basket of XX AI stocks selected by Morningstar equity analysts rose XXXX% in the third quarter which followed a XXXX% surge in the second. The third quarters gain doubled the XXX% return on the overall stock market as measured by the Morningstar US Market Index and it was ahead of the XXXX% return on the Morningstar US Technology Index. Leading contributors to the rally included Corning GLW up XXXX% and Teradyne TER which advanced 49.5%. Of the XX stocks in the basket XX or XX% outperformed the market during the quarter with XX rising more than 20%. The majority of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1976354475905622273) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-09T18:30Z 16.3K followers, 1479 engagements


"BoA (Hartnett): gold fails $4k silver $XX as too hot right now & short US$ unwind; still few structurally long gold (0.5% private client AUM XXX% institutional AUM) front-running of new Fed Chair + boom/bubble polices (see Argentina bailout) + asset gold revaluation ( la 1934 & 1973) favors debasement tradehistory no guide to future but avg gold jump past X bull markets XXX% in XX months ($6k peak next spring Table 1). $GLD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1976614940837585323) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-10T11:45Z 16.3K followers, 2207 engagements


"Some pre-market company news from CNBC & $APLD $STLA $SYF $BABA $MOS $LEVI $TSLA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1976633304276455808) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-10T12:57Z 16.3K followers, 2098 engagements


"Eric with another thoughtful piece notes some issues he sees with homebuilders and perhaps financials but maintains his bullish message for now noting according to Morgan Stanley retail buying over the past month was the most in at least a decade. "Now if you fall in the camp with retail investors. You may view this pullback Friday as a buyable dip. A tariff tiff isnt enough to flip this level of bullishness from retail investors into sudden pessimism. "If youre in the buy-the-dip camp dont overthink it this is your pullback. With earnings season on deck it looks like a textbook setup. If you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1977338458315124782) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-12T11:40Z 16.3K followers, 4220 engagements


"The VVIX (VIX of the VIX) jumped to XXXXX Friday the highest close since April and materially above Nomuras Charlie McElligotts stress level of XXX (consistent with moderate daily moves in the VIX over the next XX days (normal is 80-100)). The uptrend line from the March lows continues to hold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1977494486340292739) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-12T22:00Z 16.3K followers, 2687 engagements


"The Week Ahead - 10/12/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1977554559854932171) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-13T01:58Z 16.3K followers, 11.4K engagements


"Ex-US one focus will be the World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings starting Monday in Washington with the IMF releasing its global growth projections and financial stability report. In terms of economic reports well get China trade balance CPI and PPI UK unemployment and trade balance Japan industrial production and retail sales EU industrial production and trade balance and the second estimate of EU CPI (along with individual member countries). Perhaps more importantly though will be politics ranging from whether Pres Trumps latest social media post Sunday night will calm tensions with China to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1977559815380427237) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-13T02:19Z 16.3K followers, 3668 engagements


"BBG: US stocks are at risk of sinking as much as XX% if trade tensions between the US and China arent resolved before a November deadline according to Morgan Stanleys Michael Wilson. If associated trade uncertainty/volatility continue into early November we could see a larger correction than most are expecting Wilson wrote in a note. He forecast that the S&P XXX Index could drop to between 6027 and 5800 points in a bear-case scenario. That implies a selloff of between X% and XX% from Fridays close. "A XX% retracement of the first leg up would be 6027 XX% below recent highs" Wilson wrote."  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1977739227493220856) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-13T14:12Z 16.3K followers, 2748 engagements


"BoAs estimate of risk parity positioning (whose AUM is thought to be as big as CTAs + vol control combined ($500bn-$1tn) but is much slower moving) was little changed for a 10th week as of Friday after the big reallocation we saw in June and July with US equity positioning and commodity positioning edging a bit higher and the (leveraged) overweight to bonds a bit lower. #oott BoA does not have any equity selling modeled from this group for this week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978392908597199301) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T09:30Z 16.3K followers, 2293 engagements


"BoAs client equity flows last week saw net buying of US equities for the first week in five despite continued outflows from ETFs (although decelerating to -$0.2bn) as inflows to single stocks jumped +$4.1bn the 5th most since 2008 (after the 3rd largest 2-week string of outflows since then two weeks ago) and the largest weekly inflow with a X% or more decline in the SPX. Remember these exclude corporates now. Institutional clients returned to buying after three weeks of selling a big +$4.4bn (the largest weekly inflow since Nov XX (4-wk avg still negative though -$0.2bn). Retail also turned"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978415559390998929) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T11:00Z 16.3K followers, 4422 engagements


"Goldman: While some investors expect that the Fed cutting cycle will catalyze a rotation out of money market funds into equities but we expect household equity demand will be funded by income rather than an asset rotation. While according to data from EPFR current money market fund AUM totals roughly $XX trillion compared with $X trillion at the beginning of 2022 a portion of these inflows reflect deposit flight from traditional bank accounts. US household cash balances total just XX% of financial assets and this allocation has remained relatively stable in recent years. Furthermore while"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978419330317709418) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T11:15Z 16.3K followers, 9585 engagements


"Citadel's Nohshad Shah (from Monday so I redid the corp bond spread chart for as of Tuesday's close): There are signs of concern for investorsmost notably the recent widening in HY and IG credit spreads (chart below) driven by lower quality consumer credit and parts of private credit (triggered by concerns about Tricolor/First Brands contagion)the continued rally in Gold which suggests a mix of both dollar diversification and a desire to move away from fiat currency (as well as now a momentum play)and the US government shutdown which presents meaningful risks should it extend for many weeks."  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978423106864918695) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T11:30Z 16.3K followers, 1354 engagements


"I mentioned Samsung earnings last week as a positive indicator for upcoming US tech earnings and we got another data point overnight with Dutch semiconductor equipment maker $ASML who reported XXX billion ($6.3 billion) in bookings in the third quarter compared to XXX billion expected by analysts according to data compiled by Bloomberg. ASML which is the only company that makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines needed to produce the most sophisticated chips said it was benefiting from a boom in AI infrastructure spending. We have seen continued positive momentum around investments in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978437748722724926) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T12:28Z 16.3K followers, 2651 engagements


"$BAC Bank of America seeing a reaction more similar to what we saw with Citi and Wells (as opposed to JPM) up +3.8% in the premarket as like its peers it rode strong investment banking and equity and FICC results to an easy beat. The bank also saw NII improve by XXX% vs the XXX% expected and loan balances rose to almost $XXXX trillion at the end of the third quarter up XXX% from a year earlier and more than analysts estimates of $XXXX trillion. Strong loan and deposit growth coupled with effective balance sheet positioning resulted in record net interest income Chief Executive Officer Brian"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978441326946349306) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T12:42Z 16.3K followers, 1770 engagements


"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in an exclusive interview on Wednesday that the Trump administration will set price floors across a range of industries to combat market manipulation by China although which industries weren't mentioned. When you are facing a non-market economy like China then you have to exercise industrial policy Bessent told Sara Eisen at CNBCs Invest in America forum in Washington D.C. So were going to set price floors and the forward buying to make sure that this doesnt happen again and were going to do it across a range of industries the Treasury Secretary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978470288175280569) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T14:37Z 16.3K followers, 2746 engagements


"Consensus expects Tech to drive 3Q growth: +20% YoY vs. +3% for the rest of the index; Nvidia is expected to contribute XX% of growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978528803602211034) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T18:30Z 16.3K followers, 3685 engagements


"While the VIX edged lower today (but remains elevated at XXXX the VVIX (VIX of the VIX) pushed up to the highest close since April at XXXXX materially above Nomuras Charlie McElligotts breakeven stress level of XXX (consistent with elevated daily moves in the VIX over the next XX days (normal is 80-100))"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978567457720959154) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T21:03Z 16.3K followers, 2555 engagements


"@yasutaketin To be clear the warning was mine not theirs. That might have been what you said but Grok translated it as: The Chicago Fed is conducting a monthly estimate of retail sales but it warns that its record is volatile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978568567038660765) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T21:08Z 16.3K followers, XXX engagements


"Markets Update - 10/15/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978582049981129169) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T22:01Z 16.3K followers, 6483 engagements


"Earnings season continues Thursday as we get more financials along with a few other sector reporters. In total well get XX SPX reports with three $100bn in market cap in SCHW IBKR MMC (in descending order of market cap). Well also get major non-SPX reporter TSM (TSMC)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978604299727823242) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T23:30Z 16.3K followers, 2855 engagements


"@RyanDetrick @sonusvarghese Think you mean 60%. ;-)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978618153501426046) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T00:25Z 16.3K followers, XXX engagements


"Catching up on some things from earlier in the month and Mark Hulbert gave his annual list of XX mutual fund tax-loss selling/buying candidates (remember funds have an Oct 31st year end for tax purposes). "consider the XX stocks mentioned a year ago in a column on this strategy. They were among those in the S&P 1500 index with the worst year-to-date returns. Even though these stocks on average had already fallen XXXX% since the beginning of 2024 they fell a further XXXX% between the date of my early-October column and the end of the year. At their subsequent highs in January 2025 each of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978755294328226248) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T09:30Z 16.3K followers, 1570 engagements


"It appears French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu will get a chance to push through a budget after surviving two no-confidence votes at the National Assembly on Thursday as new ally the Socialist party was able to keep defections to a minimum following Lecornu agreeing to suspend changes to pension laws. We are advancing one step at a time the president of the lower house of parliament Yael Braun-Pivet said. We are now working in the logic of compromise discussion and dialog. The French-German 10-year bond yield spread a key measure of risk was at XX basis points compared with more than 89"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978800584221171854) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T12:29Z 16.3K followers, 1548 engagements


"The UK economy eked out +0.1% m/m growth in Aug as expected after falling the same amount in July on the back of factory output growing a faster-than-expected +0.7% while services were flat for a second straight month and construction fell slightly. The rise in manufacturing followed a fall of XXX% in July with output increasing in X of the XX subsectors the ONS said. The largest contribution came from a X% rise in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations. There were also increases for machinery and equipment metals and chemicals. The pickup puts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978802575492456685) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T12:37Z 16.3K followers, 1913 engagements


"@MTradingX I think Bitcoin is different because it uses a distributed ledger but definitely seems you have to be careful out there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978844866734858728) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T15:25Z 16.3K followers, XXX engagements


"With markets much more unsettled than they were coming into October and with big tech earnings upcoming BBG reports that implied volatility in options for the QQQ vs the SPX has risen to the highest since April"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978876091851739598) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T17:30Z 16.3K followers, 1642 engagements


"The VVIX (VIX of the VIX) also jumped to the highest since April at XXXXX way above Nomuras Charlie McElligotts breakeven stress level of XXX (now consistent with highly elevated daily moves in the VIX over the next XX days (normal is 80-100))"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978930448165204036) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T21:06Z 16.3K followers, 7849 engagements


"With expectations beaten down coming into earnings season European stocks are seeing outsized price gains following earnings beats led by heavyweights Nestle SA LVMH Mot Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE and ASML Holding NV who are up as much as XX% this week after their respective updates. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence project roughly flat third-quarter earnings growth for MSCI Inc.s benchmark of large-cap European stocks. Profit estimates had been consistently downgraded since March according to a Citigroup Inc. index. Nestle jumped by the most in XX years on Thursday while LVMH was up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979117934044668223) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T09:31Z 16.3K followers, 1955 engagements


"BBG: The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index jumped XXX% on Monday to close at 3728 its best finish since August 2015 according to Bloomberg-compiled data still though a long way from the heady days of 2015 when a leverage-induced buying spree pushed the index as high as 5166 before the bubble burst. The all-time high was set in October 2007. Turnover on mainland exchanges was more than XXX trillion yuan ($376 billion) Monday the second highest turnover ever following an Oct. X peak according to Bloomberg-compiled data. That followed mainland Chinese traders buying a record HK$35.9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1957416886985019773) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-08-18T12:18Z 16.3K followers, 1286 engagements


"Fed Chair Powell in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics (link below) does little to knock down the probabilities for an October #FOMC cut (which are now at XX% just a touch below where they were this morning) saying "based on the data that we do have it is fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago" even as pre-shutdown data "show that growth in economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected." "Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978140335562744054) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-14T16:46Z 16.3K followers, 7868 engagements


"F5 networks (FFIV) disclosed on Wednesday morning in a regulatory filing that nation-state hackers had breached its networks and stolen files including portions of source code from the companys BIG-IP suite of application services widely used by Fortune XXX companies and government agencies. F5s BIG-IP products are an integral part of many large organizations IT systems. They perform many functions including load balancing which refers to directing traffic to the appropriate systems so that applications run smoothly and wrapping those software programs in security features such as access"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978658609639616847) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T03:05Z 16.3K followers, 6594 engagements


"$UAL United Airlines in its earnings release provided similar metrics as Delta last week with premium passengers driving profit with the fourth quarter set to produce the highest total operating revenue for a single quarter in company history. But as with Delta they are seeing a revival in demand for basic economy fares with significant upside as the economy and demand are improving in the fourth quarter Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said in a statement accompanying the results. Uniteds premium revenue was up X% compared to last year while basic economy was up X% the carrier said. The"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978762854892200356) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T10:00Z 16.3K followers, 1465 engagements


"Rubner: While retail investors have been "extraordinary" buyers Citadel Securities Institutional Options clients have been hedging bearish in X of the last X weeks. Institutional investors are experiencing FOMU fear of material underperformance to benchmark indices which has kept longs in play given consecutive moves in the largest cap equities but our macro client base is looking to fade the move higher in the lowest quality segments of the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978777958090461605) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T11:00Z 16.3K followers, 3862 engagements


"BBG notes that spot vs 3-mth forwards on the VIX inverted on Tuesday for the first time since June and remains relatively flat (meaning investors are expecting volatility to remain elevated in the near term). While"almost all stock-market troughs in the past have occurred during periods of backwardation when the VIX curve is higher in the near-term that typically happens when the S&P XXX has suffered a much steeper correction beyond X% from its record. The good news for bulls is its a mild inversion for now." Its not a warning sign said Chris Murphy co-head of derivatives strategy at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978789268299603986) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T11:45Z 16.3K followers, 1216 engagements


"I mentioned earlier Samsung and ASML as giving positive data points on AI spending and TSMC gives another raising its projection for 2025 revenue growth for the second time this year now seeing mid-30% growth in annual sales up about a few percentage points from just a few months ago. Conviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening TSMC Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei told analysts after outlining earnings. The AI demand actually continues to be very strong stronger than we thought three months ago. Obviously theres some question marks about the China situation from a number of different"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978798430651646061) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T12:21Z 16.3K followers, 2061 engagements


"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading higher again on continued strong earnings as investors continue to mostly ignore the government shutdown. Taiwan Semiconductor which produces chips for Nvidia raised its 2025 revenue guidance to mid-30% growth from roughly XX% and reiterated its plan to commit up to $XX billion to capital expenditures by the end of this year. TSM also reported a nearly XX% surge in third-quarter profit. Salesforces shares jumped X% marking the best performance among Dow members in early trading after the software company gave better-than-expected"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978813038795825184) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T13:19Z 16.3K followers, 2020 engagements


"The drop in mortgage rates finally flowed through to homebuilder sentiment as the #NAHB homebuilder Housing Market Index jumped by +5pts the most since early 2024 although from the joint least since Dec XX leaving it at XX (well) below the XX dividing line between poor/good conditions for an 18th month. Looking at the components they all rose with sales expectations the next X mths +9pts to XX the best since Januarys XX the current sales component up +4pts to XX to the best since April (but also -7pts the past X mths) from the least since June 2012 while buyer traffic also rose +4pts to 25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978840636708229627) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T15:09Z 16.3K followers, 4052 engagements


"BoA: In addition to the selloff in BDC equities BDC corp bonds widened to the largest spread over financials since 2021"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978891189332959724) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T18:30Z 16.3K followers, 1581 engagements


"US economic data would have been packed next week absent the shutdown but even it is somehow solved by next week the release of CPI PPI import prices advance retail sales jobless claims and housing starts data will all be delayed as data collection has been paused since the start of the month. At least we know well get CPI by the end of the month. But that still does leave the scheduled Fed reports most notably industrial production and the Beige Book for the October meeting but also some regional PMIs and other reports such as the Chicago Feds retail sales estimate (which I will warn has a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1976996210319016258) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-11T13:00Z 16.3K followers, 3432 engagements


"The Chicago Fed does a monthly estimate of retail sales which I will caution has a spotty record (as do many estimates of retail sales in fairness) but given we won't get the report I suppose it's better than nothing. It forecast a +0.5% in the ex-autos number (+0.2% inflation adjusted) both to new record highs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978483504410251617) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T15:30Z 16.3K followers, 16.4K engagements


"As noted in contrast to cryptocurrencies the ancient hard currency gold despite todays pullback is looking to close out what will be the largest week of nominal gains ever (it has to close above $4173 currently trading at $4257). Also silver this week smashed through a peak set in 1980 on a now-defunct contract overseen by the Chicago Board of Trade and is up more than XX% this year. Prices for the white metal hit a fresh high near $XXXXX an ounce on Friday before erasing gains. $GLD $SLV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979208283064811875) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T15:30Z 16.3K followers, 2480 engagements


"Similarly Citadel's Rubner says: CTA equity trend signals are getting weaker from here (+.4 to .+15) z-scores suggesting orderly reduction in exposure to slightly long in medium term strategies. We are watching 6494 as the big medium term threshold level which flips CTAs from long to short"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979238478375432436) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T17:30Z 16.3K followers, 2867 engagements


"Goldman: HFs net sold US equities for a second straight week and at the fastest pace since early April (-1.0 SDs one-year) driven entirely by short sales as long flows finished relatively muted. US equities were net sold in each of the past X trading sessions (5 of the last 6) suggesting a more cautious posture. Macro Products (Index and ETF combined) made up nearly XX% of the total net selling (-1.2 SDs). Single Stocks were modestly net sold for the first time in X weeks (-0.4 SDs) driven by short sales outpacing long buys (1.5 to 1)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979522855428600197) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-18T12:20Z 16.3K followers, 3279 engagements


"BoA (Harnett): US data weakening sufficiently to allow Fed to cut crediblyJuly construction spending down XXX% YoY (despite AI data center boom = X% of total $2.1tn) and rate-sensitive recessionary right now (Chart 3) US house prices down in past X months JOLTS labor market data consistent with lower Fed funds (Chart 5) AI jobs disruption starting (graduate unemployment rate up X% to X% past XX months) so absent 2nd wave inflation and/or negative payrolls that augers jump in US deficit from X% to XX% of GDP/debt default worries we say US bond yields heading toward X% not X% and this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1964337794429407666) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-09-06T14:40Z 16.3K followers, 12.2K engagements


"MarketWatch: Hedge fund short bets on the $VIX (CBOE volatility index) are the highest since September 2022. While many market participants interpret this as an indication of complacency and a potential indicator of a near-term market reversal and susceptibility to turbulence the signal is not quite as alarming as it seems. Ambrus Capitals co-chief investment officer Kris Sidial though says in a recent posting on X that with realized volatility on the S&P XXX index very low (with daily movements generally limited to 20-50 basis points per day) hedge funds are implementing a relative value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1966149302322942038) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-09-11T14:38Z 16.3K followers, 16.1K engagements


"Goldman (Mueller-Glissmann) upgrades equities to short-term overweight (from neutral) and downgrades credit to neutral. We remain modestly pro-risk in our asset allocation: 3m: Overweight equities Neutral bonds/commodities/cash Underweight credit. 12m: Overweight equities Neutral commodities/ credit/bonds Underweight cash. The current late cycle slowdown with anchored recession risk good earnings growth and both monetary and fiscal easing should continue to support equities. We prefer the asymmetry of equity vs. credit - in a late cycle backdrop valuations are a more binding constraint for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1972656280922665252) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-09-29T13:34Z 16.3K followers, 1989 engagements


"BoAs estimate of risk parity positioning (whose AUM is thought to be as big as CTAs + vol control combined ($500bn-$1tn)) little changed for a 9th week after the big reallocation we saw in June and July with US equity positioning and commodity positioning edging a bit higher and the (leveraged) overweight to bonds a bit lower. #oott"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1975252212142985562) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-06T17:30Z 16.3K followers, 3858 engagements


"Yardeni: The bubble in technology-related stocks today has less air than the one during 1999 (chart). Today the S&P XXX Information Technology and Communication Services sectors account for a record XXXX% of the index's market capitalization but also a record XXXX% of the index's forward earnings. During the Tech Bubble of 1999-2000 their combined market cap and forward earnings shares peaked at XXXX% and just 23.8%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1975505128057905548) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-07T10:15Z 16.3K followers, 68.6K engagements


"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading little changed after SPX and Nasdaq closed at record highs Wed and Russell 2000 just under. Earnings reports from Delta and PepsiCo were both better than expected. Nvidia Corp. rose after the US approved several billion dollars worth of its chip exports to the United Arab Emirates. Costco shares also gained after the big-box retailer delivered solid September sales data. The calendar for today is again all about the Fed with the government shutdown cancelling economic reports. The main event though was anticlimactic as Chair Powell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1976279021760516477) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-09T13:30Z 16.3K followers, 1650 engagements


"MarketWatch: Wall Street veteran Jim Paulsen says he sees the potential for new leadership in the stock market. His chart shows the New York Fed recession probability index (red line) which Paulsen says is a good leading indicator for consumer confidence overlaid with the relative total-return performance (blue line) of an index comprising aggressive sectors of the stock market. The latter includes assets such as low quality stocks high beta stocks micro caps and IPOs. "Should more accommodative monetary policies finally stoke confidence these 'animal-spirit stocks' may take the lead" says"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1977079250718278119) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-11T18:30Z 16.3K followers, 5175 engagements


"Goldman: We expect households will represent the largest source of equity demand next year accounting for $XXX billion of net US equity purchases. Household wealth consumer confidence and cash yields have helped explain household equity flows in recent decades and point to continued demand in 2026. Consumer balance sheets remain healthy the Fed is cutting rates and our economists' forecasts for declining unemployment and slowing inflation next year bode well for consumer confidence. Notably though they see foreign investors more than halving their demand and selling from funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1977705891832225929) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-13T12:00Z 16.3K followers, 12.7K engagements


"Goldman on CTA flows: S&P short-trend became a touch negative below 6580 but is positive again intraday Monday. Overall coming into today our models expect a modest $18bn of global equity X week sales predominately in US markets though S&P reestablishing positive short trend would mitigate that and a similar figure over the cumulative X month so the baseline sales are not extending further currently and with contributions from both CTA/trend followers and the vol-based investors. If the market rebounds and vol subsides the selling would be even smaller and conversely there is ample room to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978056942636699822) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-14T11:15Z 16.3K followers, 10.7K engagements


"$C Citigroup in contrast to JPM (which is down -3.5%) is up +0.5% adding to YTD gains of around XX% after beating across all five business lines with revenues +9% y/y. Like JPM they saw better than expected equities and FICC trading up 15%. The banks wealth division a franchise that Fraser has sought for years to grow boosted revenue about X% driven largely by Citigold an investment platform for affluent clients who dont meet the firms private bank wealth thresholds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978101432818536729) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-14T14:11Z 16.3K followers, 2072 engagements


"As always a nice collection of links/posts from @TheChartReport. There's been a lot of ink spilled on how speculative the rally has the past month or two and it doesn't get much more speculative than microcaps. Well that shows no signs of letting up in the near term as they hit the highest since February vs large caps as noted by @JC_ParetsX (which ratio is getting overbought on the daily RSI for the first time since 2021 as noted by @hihotraders) and look to reclaim the speculative mania high of March 2021 as noted by @MikeZaccardi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978404231142076508) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T10:15Z 16.3K followers, 9533 engagements


"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $BAC $MS $ADM $BG $ABT $PNC $ASML $PZZA $CFG $SYF $DLTR $SOC $FHN $RUN $GRND $BK $LVMH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978444316864315743) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T12:54Z 16.3K followers, 2022 engagements


"Goldman: The modest job growth alongside robust GDP growth seen recently is likely to be normal to some degree in the years ahead. We expect the great majority of US potential GDP growth to come from solid productivity growth boosted by advances in artificial intelligence (AI) with only a modest contribution from labor supply growth due to population aging and lower immigration (Exhibit 1)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978460602579489081) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T13:59Z 16.3K followers, 7161 engagements


"Citadel (Rubner): While near-term headline risks may continue to fuel volatility the underlying equity market primary trend remains constructive. Strengthening corporate fundamentals should underpin the next leg higher as we enter a historically strong November. Contrary to market chatter retail investors did not de-gross on Friday. Market-wide options flow ran XX% above the 3-month average with Citadel Securities Retail volumes running exceptionally high. Retail flow skewed XX% better to buy via our Call/Put Direction ratio (vs. a X% average over the past X months) marking the largest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978498603208630307) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T16:30Z 16.3K followers, 20.8K engagements


"$MS Like Goldman Morgan Stanley saw very strong y/y growth from its equity trading business but unlike Goldman it also accelerated Q/Q and at $4.12bn surpassed the $3.74bn from Goldman. Their fixed-income counterparts took in X% more than a year earlier bringing the total trading haul to $XXXX billion well above the $XXX billion analysts expected. The firms results also got a boost from better-than-expected investment-banking fees which rose XX% and the wealth business generated $XXX billion in revenue more than expected after pulling in $XX billion in new assets and recording a pretax profit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978505900982993189) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T16:59Z 16.3K followers, 5803 engagements


"$MS Another apparent positive data point from Morgan Stanley's results: Zero provisions for loan losses. Provision for credit losses decreased from a year ago primarily due to greater benefit of improved macroeconomic scenario in the quarter and lower provisions related to portfolio growth Morgan Stanley said in a statement Wednesday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978543902706860242) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-15T19:30Z 16.3K followers, 3106 engagements


"US economic data would have been heavy tomorrow with retail sales PPI jobless claims and business inventories but none of those will be published. Well still get NAHB homebuilder sentiment the Philadelphia regional manufacturing PMI and EIA petroleum and natgas inventories (I forgot yesterday about the Monday holiday which pushed them to Thursday this week). In terms of Fed speakers as I noted Tuesday night its all downhill from here with Powell behind us. Well get though Governors Miran (2x making four appearances this week) Waller (for a third time this week) and Bowman and Barr (each for a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978611852092572123) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T00:00Z 16.3K followers, 4662 engagements


"Rubner: EventVestor says U.S. buyback authorizations have surpassed $1.297T (fastest pace on record) for Russell 3000; could reach $1.5T by year-end. Assuming a XX% execution rate means $1.35T actual executions (a record). S&P XXX companies have seen $1.064T authorizations YTD. Keep an eye on this dynamic after reported Q3 results. Buyback math: $1.35T of VWAP executions over XXX trading days $5.3B of implied daily buyback demand. NovDec are historically the strongest buyback execution months for U.S. corporates. I expect corporates to fill their authorizations by end of 2025. Blackout window"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978793054413721808) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T12:00Z 16.3K followers, 1667 engagements


"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $JBHT $CRM $UAL $TSM $SE $TMUS $ARM $META $MU $SCHW $TRV $HPE $UBS $INFY $NIO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978805609228095881) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T12:49Z 16.3K followers, 2417 engagements


"BBG: Walmart Inc.s US CEO said shoppers are spending at a healthy rate and remain resilient despite warning signs from banks about the economy. We see a resilient customer that makes really smart choices for whats right for them and their families at the time theyre shopping John Furner Chief Executive Officer of Walmart US said during a panel Wednesday at CNBCs Invest in America forum. This is a very strong economy were operating in Furner said"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978837851027411342) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T14:58Z 16.3K followers, 1956 engagements


"As the secular bull market turns three great chart from Ryan on the composition of the XX% in SPX gains so far. A hefty XX% came from the Mag-7 but the rest (50%) came from the "other 493""  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978883891701125216) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T18:01Z 16.3K followers, 2379 engagements


"$KRE reginal bank index down -XXX% its worst day since Apr 3rd (liberation day) and second-worst since Mar 2023 (SVB) as components $ZION Zions Bancorp sank XX% after it disclosed a $XX million charge-off for a loan underwritten by its wholly-owned subsidiary California Bank & Trust in San Diego and $WAL Western Alliance Bancorp tumbled almost XX% after it said it made loans to the same borrowers which has spilled over to the rest of the banking complex. California Bank & Trust provided two revolving credit facilities in 2016 and 2017 totaling more than $XX million to finance purchases of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978908436592234838) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T19:38Z 16.3K followers, 4094 engagements


"$JBHT JB Hunt now up over XX% (21.21% actually @Chartfest1) following its earnings beat which if it holds will be the best day since 1998"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978910540777898140) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T19:46Z 16.3K followers, 2236 engagements


"US equity indices again hit their peaks in the morning before falling until the noon hour further into neg territory today and today's bounce was sold as credit worries were heightened seeing regional banks sell off which dragged the RUT to -2.1%. SPX/DJIA -XXX% Nasdaq -0.5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978918914173136984) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T20:20Z 16.3K followers, 1457 engagements


"The 2yr yield more sensitive to FOMC rate cut pricing fell -7bps to the lowest since Sept XX at 3.43%. It is -73bps below the Fed Funds midpoint so calling loudly for rate cuts. The red line (the Effective Fed Funds Rate) which edged up another basis point last Thursday after moving up a basis point on Sept 23rd was unch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978926879496175898) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T20:51Z 16.3K followers, 2570 engagements


"Bitcoin futures fell to the lowest close since July 1st clinging to the bottom of the range since then. The daily MACD as noted Tuesday though has flipped to sell longs positioning and the RSI is now the weakest since April. $BTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978943785972162664) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T21:59Z 16.3K followers, 1951 engagements


"Markets Update - 10/16/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978952196990370091) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T22:32Z 16.3K followers, 6106 engagements


"US economic data would have been heavy again tomorrow with housing starts and permits import prices and industrial production but I think well at least get the last of those as its put out by the Fed who is not impacted by the shutdown. In terms of Fed speakers it looks like theyre all tuckered out with just St. Louis Fed President Musalem (2025 FOMC voter) to take us into the blackout. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari does speak tonight though (2027 voter). Earnings season continues and the days of empty Friday calendars are in the past as well get X SPX reports although just one $100bn in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1978973985158369444) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-16T23:59Z 16.3K followers, 6388 engagements


"ZeroHedge: The crowd is long and in need of downside protection hence the surge in skew. SDEX at these levels is pricing huge concern for a downside move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979129006407717128) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T10:15Z 16.3K followers, 1534 engagements


"#FOMC rate cut pricing jumped to the highest for 4Q since February according to CMEs Fedwatch tool with 55bps of rate cuts priced for the next two meetings up +7bps from Wed. An Oct cut is now XXX% priced with a X% chance of a 50bps cut and chances of X more cuts this year 100%. 75bps by year end is now on the board at 18%. Chance of no more cuts 0%. It got as high as X% two weeks ago. Pricing for 2026 edged up +1bps to 73bps (near the highs of the year) with total cuts through Dec XX at 128bps the highest this year. As a reminder the dot plot has 83bps of total rate cuts through Dec 26"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979136556360499425) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T10:45Z 16.3K followers, 1546 engagements


"Yardeni: We believe that the S&P XXX can reach 10000 by the end of the decade driven by strong earnings growthassuming that there's no recession in the interim. We do assume that in light of the economy's remarkable resilience since the start of the decade (chart). The economy did experience a recession lasting just two months during the pandemic lockdowns in early 2020. But its short duration amid extreme pressures attest to the economy's underlying resilience: When the lockdown restrictions were lifted ongoing social distancing restrictions didn't stop the recovery. Nor did global"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979140346996232363) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T11:00Z 16.3K followers, 2783 engagements


"BoA on the next #FOMC chair: We have long argued that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner for Fed Chair. Polymarket concurs (Exhibit 1). . Hassett has the closest relationship with President Trump. We think Hassett is the most likely to push to cut rates well below X% as Trump has called for. In our view Rick Rieder of BlackRock is running a close second right now. We think the President will view his strong private sector track record favorably. Rieder has taken a dovish tone in media interviews arguing that i) the Fed should have cut by 50bp in Sep ii) the neutral rate is below X% and iii)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979147882071474358) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T11:30Z 16.3K followers, 1446 engagements


"BBG: Citigroup Inc.s basket of XX stocks most favored by non-professional investors which includes companies like SoFi Technologies Inc. and Riot Platforms Inc. is up XX% since the start of September beating the S&P XXX Indexs XXX% gain. Meanwhile retail trading volume has increased to an all-time-high the banks equity trading desk wrote in a research note last week. Its been our contention for quite some time that the stock market gains have been largely propelled by a combination of FOMO and MOMO said Steve Sosnick chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. At this point every dip is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979151656295239866) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T11:45Z 16.3K followers, 1496 engagements


"I've been a broken record all year that I expected to see pressures in funding markets (short term financing) once RRP hit zero (which it effectively did recently) and we got another sign Wednesday as banks tapped the Federal Reserves short-term lending facility for more than $15bn over the past two days the most over a two-day period since the pandemic (there have been higher one-day usage at quarter-ends when liquidity tightens). "In normal conditions the facility is rarely used because banks can typically borrow at better rates in the repo market than at the SRF. But traders and analysts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979155430833295644) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T12:00Z 16.3K followers, 5675 engagements


"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $KRE $ZION $WAL $JEF $CSX $IBKR $ORCL $OZK $NVO $LLY $FITB $MU $HBAN $AXP $TFC $LUNR $BBVA $POAHY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979165729275482457) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T12:40Z 16.3K followers, 2465 engagements


"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading modestly lower but well off the lows of the overnight session after Fridays pre-market earnings helped bolster regional banks with Truist Financial Corp. Regions Financial Corp. and Fifth Third Bancorp all rising after they reported lower-than-expected provisions for credit losses. In addition two of the lenders involved with the bad loans at the center of the worries both received upgrades. Zions Bancorp climbed more than X% in early trading Friday after receiving an upgrade from Baird which said the drop in market value for the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979177703606751606) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T13:28Z 16.3K followers, 1870 engagements


"FYI I had thought we would get the Industrial Production report today (our broadest look at the manufacturing sector) as it's published by the Federal Reserve (who is self-funded so not impacted directly by the shutdown) but apparently it relies on inputs from other reports that are delayed so it will not come out today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979178866301092089) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T13:33Z 16.3K followers, 1904 engagements


"I had hoped last evening that today's slate of reports which include a number of regional banks would offer some comfort and allow a rebound in the complex which saw it's second-worst day since SVB yesterday and that was in fact the case: "Truist Financial Corp. Regions Financial Corp. and Fifth Third Bancorp all rose in early trading after reporting lower provisions for credit losses than analysts expected. At Ally Financial Inc. strong results showed continued demand for car loans allaying some worries about the health of the lower-income consumers." Also helping sentiment were upgrades to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979181856664019170) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T13:45Z 16.3K followers, 2910 engagements


"BoA on EPFR flows through Wed: Gold saw $34.2bn in inflows the past XX weeks the most ever ($4.5bn last week Chart 7). $GLD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979208281118687490) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T15:30Z 16.3K followers, 1465 engagements


"Marc Pinto Moody's head of global private credit said in an interview on CNBCs Squawk Box that while there are concerns over loose lending standards and some slack in the conditions that institutions attach to loans when looking at the system as a whole contagion the likes that could trigger a broader financial crisis is not evident. When we dig deeper here and look to see if theres a turn in the credit cycle which is effectively what the market seems to be focusing on we can find no evidence Pinto said. Now thats what were seeing today. That could always change. But if we look at the asset"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979215578670993725) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T15:59Z 16.3K followers, 4560 engagements


"@vikcjcr69 You know I'm not sure. I think it started off as central bank buying helped by private demand from a world awash in liquidity but has now morphed into pure speculation. It's not a massive market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979222403780694107) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T16:26Z 16.3K followers, XX engagements


"BoA (Ciana): US treasuries are seeing an increase in demand due to rising credit default risks lack of US economic data releases and US-China trade uncertainty. We still view the US bond market in a cyclically bullish trend correcting the 2020-2023 secular bear market. In other words a lower yield bias in 2024-1H26. Our process still suggests downside risk for yield some of which is out-of-consensus. Looking at the 10yr last month US 10Y yield formed a small double bottom at 3.99%. This implied tactical upside to +/- XXXX% of which it quickly achieved. We suggested fading this move. Momentum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979253578285085100) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T18:30Z 16.3K followers, 1993 engagements


"CNBC: Charles Schwab portfolio manager Joe Mazzola says retail is still buying dips with "some big inflows.on the dip" particularly across energy communication services consumer discretionary and health care sectors. He also though says that institutions continue to be more cautious: Institutions are really protecting some of that downside while were seeing a little bit more of that upside bias with the retail"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979263434249359594) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T19:09Z 16.3K followers, 2441 engagements


"St. Louis President Musalem's (2025 #FOMC voter) comments in a BBG interview today were a bit more hawkish than those he made a week ago at an appearance in Missouri (see post). Musalem I believe is our last Fed speaker before the speaking blackout starts at midnight. While then he said he expected to see further labor market softening which would support "a potential further reduction in interest rates to provide further insurance" today he seems to condition "an additional reduction in the policy rate" on "further risks to the labor market that emerge" and saying "we need to not be on a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979268681160102101) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T19:30Z 16.3K followers, 2364 engagements


"SPX stock-by-stock flag from @FINVIZ_com consistent with a lot more green and just some pockets of red here and there. The top X (trillion-dollar club) back to six higher led by TSLAs +2.5%. AMZN -XXX% & AVGO -XXX% the two decliners. As a result the Mag-7 was +1.0% taking its weekly gain to +2.45% Still just X SPX components up X% or more down from XX Thurs XX Wed XX Tues XX Monday (but up from just one a week ago). KVUE led all components +8.4% bouncing back some after leading decliners Thurs (-13.2%). AXP GILD COF were the $100bn in market cap over X% (in descending order of percentage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979290312704188566) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T20:55Z 16.3K followers, 2558 engagements


"Markets Update - 10/17/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979313316192489952) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-17T22:27Z 16.3K followers, 4854 engagements


"VIX hit near XX early in the session before falling back to XXXX. That level is still consistent w/1.29% average daily moves in the SPX over the next XX days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979343803510329638) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-18T00:28Z 16.3K followers, 2081 engagements


"BBG: A Bloomberg survey of XX strategists found the Stoxx Europe XXX Index is expected to trade at an average of XXX points by year end. Thats unchanged from last months poll and implies a drop of about X% from Wednesdays close. Societe Generale suggests the benchmark could drop to XXX while Citi has a projection of XXX. We see only muted gains for Europe as the latest news out of China combined with the reporting season could be a source of volatility Citi strategist Beata Manthey said adding that shes more optimistic about the outlook into mid-2026. Key to sustained upside will be in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979487629520376278) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-18T10:00Z 16.3K followers, 1440 engagements


"Next week would have normally been one of the lightest weeks of the year and while it will still be light well end with a real data day with not only flash PMIs and the final UMich read on consumer sentiment but also the delayed Sept CPI report. In addition next week will bring us the useless leading indicators (but more useful coincident indicators) and existing home sales. In terms of Fed speakers there will be none with the blackout. Well get a couple of non-Bill Treasury auctions but just the 20-year and a 5-year TIPS auctions neither of which will even be mentioned unless something very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979517821177700369) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-18T12:00Z 16.3K followers, 3028 engagements


"#FOMC rate cut pricing fell back Friday after hitting the highest for 4Q since February on Thursday according to CMEs Fedwatch tool as credit fears dialed back but still with 51bps of rate cuts priced for 2025 (so X cuts fully priced and a basis point of a third cut) -4bps from Thurs. So an Oct cut remains XXX% priced (and it almost doesn't matter what CPI shows on Friday a cut is coming) with a X% chance of a 50bps cut (down from X% Thurs). 75bps by year end fell back to X% from 18%. Chance of no more cuts remains 0%. It got as high as X% three weeks ago. Pricing for 2026 edged back -2bps to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1979553050760282195) [@neilksethi](/creator/x/neilksethi) 2025-10-18T14:20Z 16.3K followers, 1230 engagements