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[@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/twitter/NightOwlBiotech)
"We added $SRRA to our list of peer M&A as it was acquired pre FDA approval $KURA but nonetheless @ roughly the same multiple. Oncology still trails non-oncology even on a good day. $VSTM $TARS $ARDX $FOLD $DAWN $SNDX $XBI $NBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1940422906162684324) 2025-07-02 14:50:46 UTC 1152 followers, 3405 engagements


"$VRNA is being acq by $MRK @ 0.45X 10-year analyst consensus sales ests ($10B EV). This appears on the high end v peers. VRNA will file a 14D9 in X weeks w/projected sales provided MRK that may differ from analysts $TARS $SNDX have recent approvals $FOLD $ARDX $TVTX $MIRM $XBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1942983664054276306) 2025-07-09 16:26:19 UTC 1152 followers, 5065 engagements


"FY28 (Year 4) revenue multiples of comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios w/$1B+ MC + $ARDX b/c it trades @ a low multiple (w/FY34 patent exp). $ITCI was acq @ 5.5X & $SWTX @ 2.6X $XBI $SRPT $PCRX $HRMY $JAZZ $APLS $TVTX $TARS $RARE $BHVN $ARQT $AXSM $NBIX $BCRX $AUPH $AGIO $SPRY"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1926324810226786386) 2025-05-24 17:09:58 UTC 1150 followers, 6774 engagements


"$FOLD was upgraded by Morgan Stanley this AM. Attached is a comparison of FOLD's 10-year revenue multiple v. peers (M&A & independents). $TARS & $APLS also trade at lower multiples (there may be good reason too) $XBI $AXSM $MDGL $ACAD $PTCT $MIRM $IONS $ALKS $CORT $SLNO $NBIX"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1945827086632993083) 2025-07-17 12:45:03 UTC 1152 followers, 2092 engagements


"$APLS $JAZZ $HRMY $SRPT & $NBIX continue to trade at lower multiples of cumulative 10-year projected revenues than enterprise values paid in recent M&A (6 M&A peers incl $BIVV $GWPH $IMGN $CBST $ITCI $MDVN). Multiples also noted for $TGTX & $ASND for perspective. $XBI $LABU"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1915405390377844745) 2025-04-24 14:00:06 UTC 1152 followers, 2285 engagements


"$NBIX & $SRPT are unique comm'l-stage bios @ $2B/yr/sales from $X XX years ago. The attached compares NBIX/SRPT valuation v 10-year revenue estimates to X peers acq the last XX years incl $ITCI $IMGN $GWPH $MDVN. $XBI $JAZZ $EXEL $ONC $ARGX $INSM $ASND $CORT $TGTX $AXSM $ACAD"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1908958128177131733) 2025-04-06 19:00:59 UTC 1152 followers, 6642 engagements


"$INKT 's 1-day gain of XXX% appears to be a record going back to 1/1/2022 (post $XBI crash). Others north of XXX% since 1/1/2022 incl $VTGN $MNPR $PROK $SLNO $JSPR $SNTI $SRRK $PHVS $SYRE $CADL $SMMT $MDGL (watch dilutives) $CRBP $SPRO $BDTX $GYRE $JANX $NBTX $KALA $CMRX $RETA"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1944249350542045221) 2025-07-13 04:15:42 UTC 1152 followers, 3223 engagements


"What's happened to the SP of all XX new comm'l-stage oncology focused bios the last XX years (since 1/1/13) to incl $SWTX. XX of XX sold @ gains were sold w/in X yrs of FDA approval. Only $BPMC $DCTH $ONC & $IMCR trade higher $XBI $ESALF $EGRX $PBYI $AGIo $VSTM $CHRS $FENC $CTOR"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1919946087802065014) 2025-05-07 02:43:12 UTC 1133 followers, 3154 engagements


"FY28 (Year 4) multiples of comm'l-stage oncology focused bios w/MCs $400MM+. $ITCI was acq @ 5.5X FY28 & $SWTX @ 2.6X. $XBI $NBI $IOVA $AUTL $DAWN $JAZZ $GERN $SNDX $LEGN $INCY $NVCR $GMAB $IMCR $IBRX $ONC $DCTH $EXEL $BPMC $ZYME $TLX $MRUS. PDUFAs = $REPL $NUVB $VSTM (P2) $CRDF"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1926331827553251710) 2025-05-24 17:37:51 UTC 1152 followers, 10.8K engagements


"SNDX splits Niktimvo profits/losses 50/50 with Incyte. SNDX then sold a XXXX% royalty to $RPRX so SNDX Niktimvo share = 36.2%"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1942249017783554530) 2025-07-07 15:47:05 UTC 1150 followers, XXX engagements


"$CRMD sales by qtr post launch (actual 1st X quarters Q225 guidance & analyst est for last 2) v. $GBT (L) & valuations (R). CRMD may not reflect XX% dilutive raise. This is not investment advice but CRDM has traded down the last X days. Closed XX% raise @ $XXXXX last week. $XBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1940504326172246243) 2025-07-02 20:14:18 UTC 1139 followers, 1719 engagements


"$VSTM is down XX% since approval If $VSTM analyst estimates are credible & if their combo therapy is worth a peer M&A multiple then. 95-98% of new cancer drugs in Phase X are never approved so if VSTM continues developing their pipeline as an independent then. $XBI $NBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1940108298210222578) 2025-07-01 18:00:38 UTC 1152 followers, 1425 engagements


"$SNDX 10-year analyst consensus revenue ests v. mgmt prepared revenues of $VIE $DCPH & $KDMN. SNDX est excl Niktimvo. All generate like gross mfg margins If Rejuforj estimates are credible AND IF Rejuforj warrants a peer M&A multiple (2 HUGE IFS) then WTF O/c we c/b wrong $XBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1938620073347793006) 2025-06-27 15:26:57 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"$SNDX forecast $87.8MM in FY25 (1st full year) Niktimvo sales ($12.116MM current royalty liab @ 13.8%). Per attached $KDMN SEC filing 1st full year Rezurock sales forecast @ $63MM. If SNDX is right Niktimvo year X sales dollars will be XX% more KDMN was acq for $1.9B"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1942248715693023406) 2025-07-07 15:45:53 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements


"All XX comm'l-stage oncology focused bios v. all XX non-oncology w/MCs $1.5B+ & v. all XX w/MCs $160MM to $1.5B. Oncology as a whole trades @ lower FY28 multiples & have fared worse as a peer group YTD $XBI $NBI $IOVA $JAZZ $LEGN $GMAB $SNDX $ARGX $BBIO $CORT $KNSA $TWST $SPRY"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1947016379896385898) 2025-07-20 19:30:53 UTC 1152 followers, 2544 engagements


"The next 2-3 weeks are the most exciting every quarter. 1st comm'l-stage oncology focused bio to report Q2 sales & update guidance this coming Thursday = $NVCR. $SNDX s/b next on 8/1/25 Attached see SP chge since 5/19/25 (after Q125 earnings). $DCTH $AUTL $GERN $DAWN $IMCR $XBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1946644840424382944) 2025-07-19 18:54:31 UTC 1152 followers, 1590 engagements


"A $SNDX $INCY Niktimvo revenue forecast using $RPRX data points per its 11/24 investor pres. RPRX notes its $350MM investment will be repaid 2.35X (or $822.5MM) by FY38. This would be $5.96B in cumulative sales. Our forecast results in an XXXX% IRR = "low double digits" per RPRX"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1939425044809064712) 2025-06-29 20:45:38 UTC 1152 followers, 1430 engagements


"Comm'l-stage bio values as multiples of 10-year projected revenues v. recent peer M&A. $SRPT trades @ 0.12X cumulative 10-year projected analysts revenue est where $ITCI was acquired @ 0.41X. $XBI $NBI $IBBQ $RARE $APLS $FOLD $HRMY $ANIP $JAZZ $AXSM $NBIX $ACAD $PTCT $ASND $TGTX"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1926292767065436616) 2025-05-24 15:02:39 UTC 1150 followers, 5964 engagements


"Expanded peer group showing market caps as multiples of cumulative 10-year analyst revenue estimates (some may or may not rely on new products) v. historic M&A peer group. More to come ASAP. $XBI $RARE $HRMY $APLS $FOLD $SRPT $NBIX $PTCT $JAZZ $AXSM $TGTX $ASND $ITCI $IMGN"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1919545615651873016) 2025-05-06 00:11:52 UTC 1151 followers, 2814 engagements


"$TARS trades @ 0.17X 10-year analyst consensus revenue ests (as of 6/10/25). Attached are like multiples paid in XX peer comm'l-stage bio M&A trxs. "Mid-size" peer group were acq @ a median 0.40X multiple (but range from XXXX - 0.78X). $BPMC $SWTX $ITCI $ARQT $AGIO $XBI $NBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1932614817518420148) 2025-06-11 01:44:13 UTC 1150 followers, 2446 engagements


"FY26 multiples for all XX comm'l-stage (& pre) oncology (MCs $200MM+) & all XX non-oncology (MCs $600MM+) focused bios $IOVA data in certain lung cancers imminent We'd guess M&A candidates incl $TARS $AGIO $JAZZ $TVTX $FOLD $TGTX $SNDX via $INCY $MRUS $BBIO $CORT $IONS $INSM"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1944063284342403080) 2025-07-12 15:56:20 UTC 1121 followers, 3168 engagements


"$DCTH trades lower v. its 12/2/24 close. The last X times DCTH reported prior quarter's sales shares jumped XX% XX% & XX% the following X weeks. This is not investment advice b/c we have no idea what will happen next time but DCTH reports Q225 sales on or around 8/8/25 $XBI"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1942586535985156451) 2025-07-08 14:08:16 UTC 1145 followers, 1515 engagements


"Table notes the share price today v. @ FDA approval date for all XXX new comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios since 1/1/13. These are tracked manually so o/c we may have missed X or X (or a split). $XBI Biggest winners: $VCEL $CPRX $ADMA $INSM $ZEAL $TGTX $LQDA $ALNY $RYTM"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1946950812783010219) 2025-07-20 15:10:21 UTC 1152 followers, 7988 engagements


"Changes ($%) for all XX comm'l-stage oncology & XX non-oncology (MC $500MM+) bios since 6/28/24. Non-oncology clearly outperformed Biggest winners $VRNA $AKBA $CRMD $RIGL $CORT $SPRY $XERS $TGTX $SLNO $EXEL $TVTX Losers $SRPT $XFOR $IOVA $ADAP $KURA $MGNX $KPTI $GERN $IBRX"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1939050544506507492) 2025-06-28 19:57:30 UTC 1122 followers, 3540 engagements


"$SWTX It appears $BIVV was the only comm'l-stage bio M&A the last XX years under $20B w/2 FDA approved pot'l Blockbusters. $DCP $DOVA & $AERI had X appr/late-stage but not $1B+ Other pot'l biopharma M&A (or s/b) in FY25 $CYTK $VKTX (maybe) $FOLD $AVDL $ZYME $MDGL $BBIO $SRPT"  
![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) on [X](/post/tweet/1900188082822955139) 2025-03-13 14:11:57 UTC 1152 followers, 3896 engagements