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[@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/twitter/NightOwlBiotech)
"$TVTX (kidney) trades @ 0.12X 10-year revenue estimates while peer $MIRM (liver) @ 0.32X. Other comm'l-stage bios like $NBIX $ALKS $PTCT $ACAD & $AXSM trade @ 0.21-0.30X Filspari is patented thru 7/34 Is it the 1/2026 PDUFA in FSGS Any guidance w/b appreciated $XBI $NBI $LABU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1953497186773110861) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-08-07T16:43Z 1404 followers, 2847 engagements


"Updated FY26-28 revenue multiples for all comm'l-stage oncology focused bios w/MCs north of $350MM @ 8/22/25 We'd guess (that's all it is) $SNDX is the most likely near-term M&A candidate $INCY $RIGL has doubled since their Q225 CC $EXEL $JAZZ $ADCT $DCTH $AUTL $VSTM $DAWN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1959259130096488551) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-08-23T14:19Z 1404 followers, 3590 engagements


"All comm'l-stage oncology focused bio M&A since 1/1/13 updated for $YMAB Clearly history shows the odds are overwhelming shareholders are best served via M&A exit within X years of approval. Shareholders lose after X years $XBI $DAWN $SNDX $IOVA $GERN $MRUS $NAVB $VSTM $FENC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1959335430496854059) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-08-23T19:22Z 1402 followers, 2539 engagements


"Comm'l-stage oncology focused bio M&A since 1/1/17 incl. X w/1st approvals pre-FY13 & X pre-comm'l (yesterday's post noted XX trxs) X YTD in FY25 $BMY was busiest w/3. X peers @ X X years since $PFE closed $SGEN this 12/25 $GSK & $GILD have been quiet Not X for $MRK $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1959729160659878078) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-08-24T21:26Z 1404 followers, 2257 engagements


"15 comm'l-stage oncology focused bios from last X yrs w/FY28 multiples. We're in Sept so FY28 is almost "Year 3" Peer group M&A guesses in order just for fun $SNDX $ZYME $DAWN $AUTL $DCTH (2 yrs rounded) $VSTM $NUVB $XFOR $IOVA $GERN $IMCR have near-term data reads $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1962610071935827969) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-09-01T20:14Z 1402 followers, 5297 engagements


"$DAWN Ojemda US sales/qtr v. $CTIC Vonjo. Both have like gross margin % & patent life @ approval profiles. For perspective if DAWN mgmt/BOD ever focus on shareholder value CTIC was acquired for $1.7B. Because Ojemda outsells Vonjo DAWN s/b worth more DAY-301 $LLY $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1967244991920738793) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-09-14T15:12Z 1402 followers, 1408 engagements


"$SNDX FY25-FY34 analyst consensus revenue estimates v. $RYTM $OCUL & $LQDA. Raw data bottom right SNDX forecast to outsell OCUL & LQDA but trades @ XX% the MC WTF SNDX is forecast to generate same revenues as RYTM next X years yet trades @ 1/5th the MC $XBI $INCY $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1967952253488390433) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-09-16T14:02Z 1404 followers, 4242 engagements


"Updated history of all XX new comm'l-stage oncology focused bios back to 1/1/13 $MRUS exit is consistent. Those that sell within X yrs of approval do well for shareholders. Those that don't lose (generally) $SNDX $DAWN $IBRX $AUTL $VSTM $NUVB $FENC $GERN $XFOR $IMCR $DCTH $MGNX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1972651467409608896) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-09-29T13:15Z 1402 followers, 1384 engagements


"FY26 revenue multiples of comm'l-stage sorted by 1st FDA appr date If we had to guess $URGN $SNDX $DAWN $LEGN $DCTH are the next M&A candidates Note the X trade @ 2.9-3.9X FY26 consensus where the X non-oncology peers $TARS $ARQT $SPRY trade @ 4.5-5.5X $NUVB $PBYI $KPTI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1974842475195121713) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-10-05T14:21Z 1402 followers, 1623 engagements


"$DAWN 10-year analyst estimates v X peers that exited via M&A post FDA approval $CTIC $SRRA $KDMN While DAWN is up from its $XXXX low from earlier this month after their Q2 XX CC DAWN still trades at a fraction of analyst estimates (which may assume Firefly is a success)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1961811916487111050) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-08-30T15:23Z 1401 followers, 2275 engagements


"$DAWN Ojemda US product sales by quarter post launch v. $CTIC Vonjo. CTIC was acquired for an EV of $XXX. DAWN EV = $350MM at $8/share. Hopefully a sale of DAWN is near. Otherwise DAWN plans to develop DAY-301 when 95-98% of new cancer drugs in P1 are never approved $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1974129040178180252) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-10-03T15:06Z 1401 followers, 1275 engagements


"$LGND projected revenue/EPS multiples v. $RPRX $XOMA $XNCR LGND is up XX% last X mos but now trades @ multiples 2X+ higher than peers. We're not suggesting a short as losses are infinite but. LGND holds equity positions where value may not manifest in revenues $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1974602200895881317) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-10-04T22:27Z 1401 followers, XXX engagements


"$XBI has traded up XX days in a row record since 12/31/21 up 11%. Record was X days 7/16/25 List of comm'l-stage bios up 10%+ & those down last XX days. Read scope Winners (excl $MRUS) $ADCT $SRPT $TARS $CHRS $NUVB $CRSP Bios Down $ARDX $HROW i.e. Melt $PCRX $AUPH $PGEN $AVDL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1976474359075307820) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-10-10T02:26Z 1402 followers, 1386 engagements


"$NVCR reported Q225 sales this morning. NVCR trades at XXX - $3.0X FY2025 consensus which is lower than peer $EXEL at 5.0X+ & $LEGN at 7.0X+ (though NVCR gross margins are in the 70s where most peers are in the 90s). $XBI $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1948375421457711489) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-07-24T13:31Z 1404 followers, 1872 engagements


"Seeking Alpha notes XX $SNDX analysts. X forecasts FY34 SNDX sales @ $3B & the other @ $1.26B. Comp of SNDX MC as a multiple of 10-year revenues v XX peers that exited via M&A attached SNDX trades @ 0.18X the lowest 10-year analyst est. Peers acq for XXXX to 0.40X $XBI $INCY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1966917278198546893) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-09-13T17:29Z 1403 followers, 2227 engagements


"Valuation related data points of the X most mature commercial-stage bios (non-BP). None are forecast to double sales in the next XX years. Are there other analytics we should consider or peers that s/b added $OGN $BMRN $PTCT $ALKS $ACAD $ANIP $JAZZ $INCY $EXEL $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1967215636591092057) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-09-14T13:15Z 1403 followers, 1178 engagements


"$SNDX & $FOLD market caps as multiples of FY28 & cumulative 5-year (FY25-28) revenue forecasts v. peers with like forecasts. The orig intent was to focus on SNDX v. comm'l-stage non-oncology peers but we added FOLD $HROW $BCRX $IBB Peers excl $XERS $SRPT $ARDX $HRMY $ANIP $TWST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1977911542000582884) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-10-14T01:37Z 1403 followers, 2466 engagements


"Another thing about DCTH. The private equity firms that provided that financing in March 2023 historically want to realize their gains within 2-3 years. The reason is self-evident. Hence technically we are overdue for a M&A exit. I suspect after the data is published this quarter they will be acquired. Of course I could be wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1979174430371651660) [@NightOwlBiotech](/creator/x/NightOwlBiotech) 2025-10-17T13:15Z 1403 followers, XXX engagements