# ![@NightOwlBiotech Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664.png) @NightOwlBiotech Night Owl Biotech Research Group

Night Owl Biotech Research Group posts on X about $xbi, $sndx, $ibb, $nbi the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1680659305698033664/interactions)
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### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1680659305698033664/posts_active)
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### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1680659305698033664/followers)
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- [--] Month [-----] +4.70%
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### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1680659305698033664/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1680659305698033664/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  81.89% [finance](/list/finance)  22.05% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  19.69% [currencies](/list/currencies)  1.57% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  0.79%

**Social topic influence**
[$xbi](/topic/$xbi) #6, [$sndx](/topic/$sndx) #2, [$ibb](/topic/$ibb) #2, [$nbi](/topic/$nbi) #1, [$incy](/topic/$incy) #1, [$tars](/topic/$tars) #1, [$jazz](/topic/$jazz) #1, [$iova](/topic/$iova) #8, [$dawn](/topic/$dawn) #3, [dawn](/topic/dawn) #817

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@tweetawaydk](/creator/undefined) [@richardtip17589](/creator/undefined) [@melvinriskmgmt](/creator/undefined) [@taeyoon43334145](/creator/undefined) [@lividsugar](/creator/undefined) [@financebully](/creator/undefined) [@livid_sugar](/creator/undefined) [@longroaderstar](/creator/undefined) [@olliewinston](/creator/undefined) [@bambossie81](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Incyte Corporation (INCY)](/topic/$incy) [Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS)](/topic/$tars) [Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (JAZZ)](/topic/$jazz) [Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (IOVA)](/topic/$iova) [Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (DAWN)](/topic/$dawn) [TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX)](/topic/$tgtx) [Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (MDGL)](/topic/$mdgl) [Travere Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (TVTX)](/topic/$tvtx) [Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN)](/topic/$legn) [Geron Corp (GERN)](/topic/$gern) [Immunocore Holdings Limited (IMCR)](/topic/$imcr) [Amicus Therapeutics, Inc (FOLD)](/topic/$fold) [Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (MIRM)](/topic/$mirm) [Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (APLS)](/topic/$apls) [Axsome Therapeutics, Inc (AXSM)](/topic/$axsm) [Exelixis Inc (EXEL)](/topic/$exel) [Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX)](/topic/$nbix) [Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT)](/topic/$arqt) [ImmunityBio, Inc. Common Stock (IBRX)](/topic/$ibrx) [Nuvation Bio Inc. (NUVB)](/topic/$nuvb) [NovoCure Limited Ordinary Shares (NVCR)](/topic/$nvcr) [SpringWorks Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (SWTX)](/topic/$swtx) [BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. Common Stock (BBIO)](/topic/$bbio) [Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (SLNO)](/topic/$slno) [One Cash (ONC)](/topic/$onc) [Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT)](/topic/$srpt) [Corcept Therapeutics Inc. (CORT)](/topic/$cort) [Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (IONS)](/topic/$ions) [Liquidia Corporation Common Stock (LQDA)](/topic/$lqda) [Blueprint Medicines Corporation (BPMC)](/topic/$bpmc) [Merus N.V. Common Shares (MRUS)](/topic/$mrus) [Catalyst Pharmaceutical  Inc. (CPRX)](/topic/$cprx) [Insmed, Inc. (INSM)](/topic/$insm) [PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (PTCT)](/topic/$ptct) [Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY)](/topic/$hrmy) [SuperRare (RARE)](/topic/$rare) [Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD)](/topic/$acad) [ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT)](/topic/$adct) [Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock (RYTM)](/topic/$rytm) [ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA)](/topic/$adma) [ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SPRY)](/topic/$spry) [Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc. (ITCI)](/topic/$itci) [Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (LGND)](/topic/$lgnd) [Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX)](/topic/$rprx) [BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Inc. (BMRN)](/topic/$bmrn) [Cytokinetics Inc. (CYTK)](/topic/$cytk) [Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. Class A Common Stock (KNSA)](/topic/$knsa) [CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP)](/topic/$crsp) [Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO)](/topic/$agio) [Immunogen Inc (IMGN)](/topic/$imgn) [Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (OCUL)](/topic/$ocul)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Updated FY26-28 revenue multiples for all comm'l-stage oncology focused bios w/MCs north of $350MM @ 8/22/25 We'd guess (that's all it is) $SNDX is the most likely near-term M&A candidate $INCY $RIGL has doubled since their Q225 CC $EXEL $JAZZ $ADCT $DCTH $AUTL $VSTM $DAWN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1959259130096488551)  2025-08-23T14:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$LGND projected revenue/EPS multiples v. $RPRX $XOMA $XNCR LGND is up 80% last [--] mos but now trades @ multiples 2X+ higher than peers. We're not suggesting a short as losses are infinite but. LGND holds equity positions where value may not manifest in revenues $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1974602200895881317)  2025-10-04T22:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SNDX trades @ the lowest revenue multiple in comm'l-stage oncology by a large margin & v. peer non-oncology $LEGN trades @ 2nd lowest multiple followed by $JAZZ $ZYME trades @ the highest multiple. $BBIO reported compelling data this AM $PGEN $NUVB $IMCR $EXEL $MESO $ARQT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1983587855525147113)  2025-10-29T17:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SLNO product sales by quarter post launch compared to [--] peers incl. $MDGL & $VRNA with similar revenue profiles. Note SLNO trades at a fraction of the 5's multiple. This is not investment advice. $XBI $NBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1986187033216254171)  2025-11-05T21:41Z [----] followers, 19.8K engagements


"$RPRX inv day pres w/changes in 5-year consensus for their portfolio incl Niktimvo $SNDX & Rytelo $GERN If Niktimvo's projected revenues are 98% higher now v when RPRX made its investment @ a $2.536B val (AS A ROYALTY) does that mean Niktimvo's val is 98% higher Why/why not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1990957769193664874)  2025-11-19T01:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Valuation related data pts for most new comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios $TVTX is way up yet still trades @ lower multiples than peers. $LGND multiples are "off-the-charts" yet many cite low forecasts (from royalties incl TVTX) $FOLD update on generic $BCRX $APLS $SLNO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1992727411415523480)  2025-11-23T22:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage oncology focused bio value data points @ 12/1/25 ($1B+ MCs) $NVCR already @ the lowest multiple before C-suite shake up $SNDX presenting @ Evercore 12/4. Off 3.5%. Head fake or $INCY $JAZZ & $LEGN $ONC $GMAB $EXEL $NUVB $KURA $URGN $ZYME $IMCR $IBRX $IBB $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1995621969765740676)  2025-12-01T22:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$NBIX Crenessity sales were $98MM in its 3rd full calendar quarter on the market (see comp to [--] peers [--] M&A exits) incl $MDGL Note most peers were acquired for 100-140X 3rd quarter sales. This suggests Crenessity c/b worth the same multiple (excl Ingrezza) $VRNA $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1997729325580464206)  2025-12-07T18:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$NBIX v [--] peers with like profiles (see our earlier post). NBIX appears to trade @ respectable multiples $CORT does as well but will transition to oncology focused. $RYTM appears rich but near term PDUFA & P3 read $ASND $IONS $BMRN $BBIO $MDGL $AXSM $PTCT $XBI $IBB $IBBQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1998029133167919198)  2025-12-08T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CYTK valuation v. 10-year analyst consensus revenue estimates v. [--] peer (those with similar sales forecasts) M&A exits CYTK's 10-year revenue multiple appears on the high side v. these [--] peers (except Intermune) Did $NVS make an offer We're new to CYTK $ISEE $VRNA $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2002942312532603110)  2025-12-22T03:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$BCRX multiples v peer comm'l non-oncology focused bios BCRX's gross margins are the highest v peers (97%) & generic Orladeyo won't be available until FY40 Why does BCRX trade @ such a low multiple v peers $XBI $ADMA $MIRM $TVTX $TARS $APLS $KNSA $SUPN $CPRX $LQDA $HRMY $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2008343115761848601)  2026-01-06T01:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Revenue multiples for all comm'l-stage non-oncology bios w/MCs from [--] to $5B @ 1/16/26 using ests as of Xmas (subject to change after JPM) $LGND trades @ the highest multiple. Is this sustainable w/ $TVTX $OCUL $SNY Other high multiples $AUPH $MIRM $MESO $ADMA $LQDA $PGEN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2012595947826462850)  2026-01-17T18:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$APLS valuation & revenue multiples v. $MIRM. MIRM has done an exceptional job for shareholders up 100% the last [--] months. We're not bashing MIRM but trying to understand the Apellis risk v reward profile $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2013301125949092045)  2026-01-19T17:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$BCRX & $ATXS operating forecasts per ATXS management. At the bottom find a comparison to BCRX analyst consensus. It appears ATXS management does not see Orladeyo at $1B/year by FY29 $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2013344582818213890)  2026-01-19T20:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$DAWN was hot today. Attached are M&A multiples paid [--] DAWN peers v. DAWN multiples. See a $MRSN prepared sales forecast @ the bottom $CTIC appears a good peer for 10-year multiples. Vonjo had [--] years to patent exp when acq. Ojemda patent exp June [--] $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2013802594053792217)  2026-01-21T02:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$BCRX share price since its 3/94 IPO. BCRX closed @ $6.50/sh on 3/4/94. 30+ years later BCRX trades in the $6.60s/sh BCRX has lost a cumulative $1.75B since founded in [----] (40 years ago) thru Q325 BCRX closed at $6.10 the day after Orladeyo was approved $XBI $IBB $NBI $ATXS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2016913990194978959)  2026-01-29T16:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$VSTM share price since 4/8/2025 (1 month before FDA approval) for entertainment only. This is not investment advice. VSTM mgmt may or may not be competent. Those with LGSOC will be aware of VSTM's combo. The question as always is what is the real TAM. $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2018058808421933163)  2026-02-01T20:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$KALV FY26-34 analyst consensus v 10-year forecasts prepared by mgmts of [--] peer comm'l-stage bios $DAWN $CTIC $SRRA acq for $1.7-$1.9B in EV within [--] months of appr. KALV Q325 GM=91% If forecasts are so similar would KALV be worth the same in M&A $BCRX $IONS $THTX $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2018148187282841754)  2026-02-02T02:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage non-oncology bio SP changes last [--] days. Of [--] bios in this peer group with MCs ranging from $750MM to $13B only [--] traded higher incl $SUPN $TWST $OCUL $VALN $OGN $ANIP $DVAX (acq) & $INVA Losers $BBIO $CRSP $LQDA $ARWR $CRNX $PGEN $MNKD $KALV $PHAT $SLNO $TVTX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2019598789712166915)  2026-02-06T02:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"SP chge for all [---] new comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios since 1/1/13 (sorted by appr date). [--] M&A [--] bankruptcies [--] still independent Winners $INSM (up 1200%) $VCEL 1050% $CPRX 745% $LQDA $ADMA $ALNY $TARS $MIRM $RYTM $TGTX $ZEAL $NBIX $BBIO $ETON $ARGX $CRMD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1995260597223543096)  2025-11-30T22:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$IMCR closing share price since 5/28/25. Notice any trend IMCR is [--] of the few still independent comm'l-stage oncology focused bios trading higher than @ FDA approval ($33 today v $21 @ appr) We understand Kimmtrak's P3 melanoma trials will finally start to read in 2H26. $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2016676943807078573)  2026-01-29T00:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Comm'l-stage bio trading within 1.60X 52-week lows. $XBI closed @ 1.89X its 52-week low $TGTX is a head scratcher. Subq data within [--] months $PCRX @ 1.1X FY26 consensus $BMRN rising steadily post JPM $BCRX $ALVO $AGIO $ADMA $CORT $OGN $CPRX $RARE $INVA $TLX $NVCR $LEGN $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2021032049574899937)  2026-02-10T01:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$BPMC is being acquired @ 0.51X cumulative 10-year projected revenues per analysts (excl. [--] CVRs). Attachment compares BPMC to peer M&A showing 2nd highest multiple (but not gross profit). Comparisons to $INCY $GMAB $EXEL $JAZZ $LEGN $MRUS $NVCR $IMCR $GERN $SNDX soon. $XBI $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929526934536351751)  2025-06-02T13:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios w/MC btwn $1.5 & $6.0B incl FY28 & 10-year multiples $FOLD trades @ the lowest multiple in the peer group after $HRMY which we understand has a patent cliff $APLS is up today but. $TARS reports 8/6 $XBI $BCRX $KNSA $SUPN $AGIO $ARQT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951003668947542333)  2025-07-31T19:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$VRNA is being acq by $MRK @ 0.45X 10-year analyst consensus sales ests ($10B EV). This appears on the high end v peers. VRNA will file a 14D9 in [--] weeks w/projected sales provided MRK that may differ from analysts $TARS $SNDX have recent approvals $FOLD $ARDX $TVTX $MIRM $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1942983664054276306)  2025-07-09T16:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$LEGN hit a 52-week low today while the $XBI & $IBB are @ multi-year highs LEGN trades @ 0.17X cumulative 10-year analyst consensus. The [--] peers with like revenue forecasts were acquired for [----] to 0.49X. LEGN's Year [--] multiple is just as absurd. $JNJ Everyone wins in M&A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1993125595019145247)  2025-11-25T01:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"NPV est of $INCY amts due $SNDX if [--] $RPRX 11/24 data points (IRR & FY38 repayment) on $350MM purchase are credible [--] 9/11/25 RPRX inv deck noting 5-yr Niktimvo consensus up 96% since 11/24 is right [--] Net collab revs due SNDX=40% of Niktimvo sales (Q325 act=30%) 14% CoC $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2001454708699893905)  2025-12-18T00:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It appears the $FOLD M&A exit was priced @ 0.36X 10-year analyst ests. We've tracked all comm'l-stage bio M&A since 1/1/13. 90% are priced 0.30-0.40X 10-year projected sales per the acquiree $SNDX trades @ 0.15X 10-year consensus our top [--] M&A candidate with $INCY $XBI $BMRN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2002077546410807391)  2025-12-19T18:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We're unaware of any duo offering as much synergy as a $INCY $SNDX trx going back to 1/1/13. INCY has [--] FDA approved hematology focused therapies (incl Niktimvo) so there's virtually no material incremental cost to insert Revuforj into their global systems +++ $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2006485970838008140)  2025-12-31T22:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Biopharma M&A on/near JPM since 1/1/17. We primarily track comm'l-stage so the list miss a clinical-stage exit Next week oncology $SNDX $INCY $URGN Non $NBIX $ASND $IOVA $DAWN $AUTL $IONS $AXSM $CYTK $RYTM $INDV $ACAD $MIRM $ARQT $APLS $CPRX $ANIP $XERS $ETON $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2008653577141780535)  2026-01-06T21:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We don't recall as obvious a synergistic acquisition that exists between $INCY & $SNDX going back to 1/1/2013. Of course we don't know everything but. Did we miss anything $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2009385789503713562)  2026-01-08T22:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Seeking Alpha is reporting higher $SNDX FY29 (Year 4) analyst revenue estimates (of [--] versus [--] analysts) Attached are hypothetical SNDX M&A values using low ave & high FY29/Year revenue ests & peer $SWTX Year [--] M&A multiples This is not investment advice $INCY $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2010039495291482370)  2026-01-10T17:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SNDX valuation as multiples of actual TTM product sales (reflecting 1/2 share of Niktimvo) v [--] M&A exits Note the [--] were acquired @ 70-131X Q4 sales post approval v SNDX @ 25X. [--] were acq @ 22-56X Year [--] sales v SNDX @ 9X $INCY $IBB $XBI $NBI $VRNA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2011071134385782932)  2026-01-13T13:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SNDX valuation as multiples of actual Revuforj sales by quarter/year [--] post launch v. [--] peers that exited via M&A. Niktimvo is not considered. To us SNDX still appears to be the best value in comm'-stage oncology but of course we c/b wrong $INCY $IBB $XBI $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2012289624467538129)  2026-01-16T22:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SLNO value to actual sales v. [--] acquired peers w/like sales profiles. Should SLNO explore M&A to maximize S/H value RYTM & $AARD are dev pws therapies $NBIX Crinessity sales by themselves are consistent w/3 peers. Excl Q425 & Ingrezza $MDGL for ref only $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2012659662424863138)  2026-01-17T22:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Changes in $XBI components last [--] days sorted by largest $ to lowest. XBI is up 6% After a brutal [--] years for $MRNA (post COVID). FWIW we believe $PCVX will be acquired by $PFE $VRTX $DYN $MNKD Losers $TNGX $PVLA $VRDN $GLUE $ROIV $APGE $ACLX $ORIC $EXAS $SPRY $OLMA $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2014524954557952290)  2026-01-23T02:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SLNO market cap as multiples of analyst consensus revenue ests v. multiples paid mgmt revenue ests in [--] peer M&A trxs. This is not investment advice but if SLNO ests are credible & if Vykat's value prop merit peer multiples then. Is our math wrong $XBI $IBB $NBI $FOLD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2015170943123939613)  2026-01-24T21:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@TweetAwayDK I suspect the justification comes from RYTM & AARD pws drugs in development but time will tell (though it appears RYTM is not a huge threat). Thank you for the post"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2015219516486148449)  2026-01-25T00:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Analysts project $SNDX to generate roughly the same revenues over the next [--] years as $LQDA $ARQT $MIRM & $ADMA (@ the best gross margins) yet SNDX trades @ a fraction of their MCs We're not bashing the [--]. All have done well. We're just pointing out SNDX $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2015545244574437674)  2026-01-25T22:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$NUVB share price since 1/1/25. Does NUVB's "fall" since releasing Q425 sales appear to be turning Sagard invested $150MM to purchase a 5.5% Ibtrozi royalty (roughly a $2.7B valuation.as a royalty). This is not investment advice. $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2018820629399834650)  2026-02-03T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage oncology focused bio the last [--] days. [--] of [--] with MC's over $300MM were down. [--] up include $URGN $INCY (Tuesday's coming) $ADCT $LEGN $ONC Worst (just [--] days) $NVCR (read the 8k) $IBRX $IOVA (just hit $3 last week) $DCTH $KURA $EXEL $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2019583008895103481)  2026-02-06T01:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Updated valuation related data points for all comm'l-stage oncology focused bios w/MCs from $300MM-$6B $LEGN $TLX $GERN $AUTL trading w/in 10% of 52-week lows $DCTH too but $25MM share buyback $NUVB $ZYME higher analyst est $IBRX $XFOR $ADCT $VSTM $RIGL $DAWN $IOVA $KURA $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1992415013173092642)  2025-11-23T02:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage oncology focused bio valuations & FY29 multiples. We added $CORT after relacorliant's P3 data in PROC. $IMGN Elahere was acq [--] mos after appr $SNDX $INCY Look @ the multiples $IOVA does value reflect lung data $ONC $GMAB $EXEL $JAZZ $NUVB $IMCR $ZYME $NVCR $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2015207872171315443)  2026-01-24T23:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage non-oncology bio Year [--] & 10-year multiples (1-$5.5B in MC) @ 1/30/26 $SLNO Vykat is outselling VRNA's Ohtuvayre launch (acq. for $10B yes sales does not = TAM). $ARDX 's API patent was just extended to FY41 $TVTX PDUFA nearing $TARS off 20% $MIRM $LGND $AUPH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2017359639529091349)  2026-01-30T22:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage oncology focused bio M&A last [--] years. It appears busiest March - June (o/c history does not predict the future). Our educated guesses of next M&A candidates: $SNDX via $INCY $DAWN finally $URGN $IOVA $ZYME via $JAZZ $NUVB $DCTH $VSTM $IMCR $AUTL $KURA $TLX $IBRX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2017713633493438943)  2026-01-31T21:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I'm 100% with you on TLX ZYME URGN & VSTM. ZYME will be acquired by the end of the year (likely by JAZZ). Same with URGN. TLX & VSTM may take some time but they'll get there. I disagree on KURA. While the risk KURA loses meaningful value from here is low I struggle to see the upside. As I suspect you know KURA must provide Kyowa 50% of Ziftomenib sales. Again at the same time I don't see the downside either. I will simply never understand why they did not just sell the company to Kyowa at the time (when shares were trading in the low $20s) unless KURA was not worth it. As always I could be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2018882035444531287)  2026-02-04T02:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Comm'l-stage oncology bio valuations analyst revenue estimates & related multiples @ 2/6/26 (& peer Year [--] M&A multiples paid) $ONC $GMAB $INCY $EXEL $JAZZ $IBRX $LEGN $TLX $NUVB $SNDX $ZYME $IMCR $DAWN $NVCR $IOVA $URGN $GERN $KURA $RIGL $VSTM $ADCT $AUTL $DCTH $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2020154539811164251)  2026-02-07T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thank you for the response. I'm not sure I agree as most drugs in M&A exits have potential competing therapies in late-stage trials. O/c NBIX's market cap suggests you are spot on. You know I am very well aware of the spelling of Crenessity. I don't know what I was thinking :) I have not listened to the call yet. The PR did not mention FY26 Crenessity sales guidance. I must say I'm disappointed. Thank you again. I appreciate you taking the time to respond. Good luck whatever your position. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021778222715707740 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021778222715707740"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2021778222715707740)  2026-02-12T02:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$DAWN longer-term analyst consensus ests are slightly lower v. 1/23/26. DAWN released Q425 sales on 1/12/26 We believe $CTIC is the closest DAWN peer for pot'l M&A value ($1.7B EV). Sales projections gross margins & patent life are very close. O/c we c/b wrong $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2022323719868174361)  2026-02-13T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$SNDX market cap as a multiple of FY26-29 revenues v [--] peer comm'l-stage non-oncology with very roughly the same profile. SNDX YTD gross margins = 96% $SLNO $TARS $LQDA $AUPH $ARQT $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1991973262214238678)  2025-11-21T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage oncology focused M&A by year & month since 1/1/17. There's been [--] such transactions on average the last [--] years. Sometimes these trxs are within a small window & sometimes not. Our guess of the next candidates (in order) $URGN $DAWN $SNDX $IOVA $NUVB $DCTH $VSTM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2014706009311220153)  2026-01-23T14:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"YTD % change in SP comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios w/MC of 1-$5.5B $OCUL $SNY rumor has fizzled out $TARS JPM excl Insider sales Last PR dated [--] mos ago $TVTX multiples appear reasonable. FSGS PDUFA ext Best $ARDX $NVAX $MIRM $LQDA $OGN even $CORT $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2017650553623281710)  2026-01-31T17:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Day of week all [--] comm'l-stage oncology (26) & non M&A exits were announced (bios w/1st appr since 1/1/13 so no $CELG $SGEN etc) Monday was the most popular day (62% in oncology) followed by Wed Our guess on next M&A candidates $SNDX $ARWR $CYTK $VKTX $XERS $TERN $VTYX $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2018491391026803046)  2026-02-03T01:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage oncology bio (MC $350MM+) share price changes YTD. $XBI is up 4.7%. Only [--] of [--] bios in this peer group are higher $KURA recall EV $NVCR & $TLX reported [--] wks ago $ONC $GERN $IBRX $ADCT $GMAB $INCY $DCTH $JAZZ $EXEL $IOVA $IMCR $ZYME $URGN $RIGL $LEGN $AUTL $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2018859376430489871)  2026-02-04T01:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SNDX average closing share price since 12/10/25 (last [--] weeks) = $20.855. SNDX has not deviated by more than 3% for more than [--] trading day. $INCY reports Tues 2/10/26 $IOVA has risen/fallen by 10%+ within days the last [--] weeks. This may be meaningless. $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2019888478033465780)  2026-02-06T21:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Revenue multiples of all comm'l-stage non-oncology bios w/approvals btwn 1/1/21 & 12/31/23. Useful if you believe drugs are worth some multiple &/or NPV of revenues/gross margin projections Lowest: $ARDX $BCRX $TARS $TVTX & $APLS $ASND $AXSM $TGTX $MIRM $KNSA $AUPH $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2019955691910201426)  2026-02-07T02:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$NBIX Crenecessity Q425 (4th qtr post launch) of $135MM = $VRNA $IMGN (acq for $10B) & $MDGL (MC $11B) sales $s by qtr post launch Is Crenecessity by itself worth $10B in M&A like VRNA & IMGN NBIX Ingrezza doing $2.8B/yr (not considered in graph) $SLNO $XBI $IBB $XNI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2021752891195662727)  2026-02-12T01:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Livid_Sugar Thank you for that clinical perspective. It's not my strength. I am a finance person by trade so material like that is helpful. It is genuinely appreciated. Attached is a comparison of NBIX's market cap as multiples of Year [--] (FY2029) analyst revenue estimates & 10-year projected revenues versus [--] peer M&A exits. Imagine if NBIX was acquired at 10-year multiples consistent with KRTX or BIVV I used NBIX's market cap to calculate their multiples but remember their EV is just over $11B. I seriously hope NBIX eventually considers a M&A exit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2021783967297339586)  2026-02-12T03:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Comm'l-stage oncology focused bio value revenue est & multiples @ 2/11/26 $NVCR FDA appr for TTF in pancreatic cancer. NOTE TTF margins are lower than most ROA $IOVA & $AUTL trade @ next lowest multiples $RIGL $LEGN $TLX $DCTH $JAZZ $GERN $VSTM $URGN $ADCT $IMCR $KURA $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2021947004864409728)  2026-02-12T13:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage bio trading w/in 1.10X of their lows since 10/1/25 $VSTM LGSOC (ovarian) combo did $17.5MM in Q425 sales ($1MM beat) Should $OCUL have taken $16/sh last Sept $TLX $800MM FY25 sales $INSM $RYTM $ANIP $LGND $ALVO $CRSP $XERS $XNCR $SRPT $ACAD $ARGX $GMAB $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2022100929957498894)  2026-02-13T00:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SNDX investors should not be discouraged. SNDX has traded within 3% of its mean/average 83% of the time for the last 2+ months. We're unaware of any peer that trades @ such a narrow range We thought we might breach after $INCY bullish Niktimvo data.but no :) $XBI $IBB $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2022445985130012685)  2026-02-13T23:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$IOVA fully diluted shares o/s @ 12/31/24 & market cap using the Treasury Stock Method. IOVA is trading for $4.26/share after hours yielding a fully diluted market cap of $1.35B & EV just a hair over $1B. FY25 guidance of $450-$475 re-affirmed. EV is barely 2X FY25 sales. $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1895258023968350562)  2025-02-27T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"All comm'l-stage bio M&A back [--] yrs (oncology) & [--] yrs (non). All oncology & non w/MCs $500MM+. See timing @ bottom. Those exiting via M&A soon after appr do best as a whole $XBI Recent non incl $TARS $BBIO $MESO $SPRY $MDGL $CRSP $CRMD $ITRM $VRNA $TVTX $ACOG $KRYS $APLI $TGTX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1895952093405724908)  2025-03-01T21:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Current FY28 (Year 4) & FY29 (Year 5) revenue multiples of $BPMC $IOVA $GERN $SNDX & $DAWN. Below see screenshots of peer median Year [--] & [--] M&A revenue multiples per Centerview & Lazard. Would these [--] not also be considered peers (why or why note) $XBI Next = $REPL $NUVB $VSTM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1896754223297270075)  2025-03-04T02:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Valuation v actual product revenues by quarter gross margin & FY25 consensus for all new comm'l-stage bios last [--] years w/meaningful revenue projections. Can someone comment on $CRMD (why it may have a low FY25 multiple) $XBI $VRNA $MDGL $PHAT $TARS $ARQT $AVDL $TGTX $TLX $DCTH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1897105684770250956)  2025-03-05T02:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"New comm'l-stage bio quarterly sales since launch FY25 consensus & multiples. $IOVA trades @ the lowest multiple excl $PHAT w/patent life uncertainty. $TARS is now on the lower side. $AVDL is off 50%+ since 11/24 (where's $JAZZ). $XBI $AXSM $TGTX $VRNA $MDGL $SNDX $GERN $IMCR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1898191660233720060)  2025-03-08T01:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"EV & FY25/26 revenue multiples for all comm'l-stage oncology focused bios w/MC $0.2 - $15B. $NVCR is not traditional medicine (more device). $IOVA trades at the lowest multiple. $INCY $EXEL $JAZZ $BPMC $MRUS $IBRX $GERN $URGN $LEGN $AUTL $IMCR $SNDX $DAWN $ZYME $DCTH $RIGL $YMAB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1898440931369423049)  2025-03-08T18:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SWTX It appears $BIVV was the only comm'l-stage bio M&A the last [--] years under $20B w/2 FDA approved pot'l Blockbusters. $DCP $DOVA & $AERI had [--] appr/late-stage but not $1B+ Other pot'l biopharma M&A (or s/b) in FY25 $CYTK $VKTX (maybe) $FOLD $AVDL $ZYME $MDGL $BBIO $SRPT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1900188082822955139)  2025-03-13T14:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$IOVA product sales by quarter v [--] peers later acquired (GBT $GWPH $IMGN $TSRO). Valuations as multiples of revenues in 4th quarter on the market noted. Insert your own target $XBI $FOLD $AVDL $ITCI $CPRX $ARQT $TARS $MDGL $TVTX $BCRX $ARQT $ARDX $AUPH $HROW $CRMD $SRPT $ESPR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1900225138601181578)  2025-03-13T16:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Status update & SP change of all [--] new comm'l-stage oncology bios post 1st appr since 1/1/13 (12 years) incl $TSVT & $CKPT $DAWN pls read.95-98% of new P1 cancer drugs fail. Evidence appears M&A ASAP is best exit for S/H $XBI $SWTX $SNDX $MRUS $BPMC $GERN $IMCR $ONC $IBRX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1901053681287500153)  2025-03-15T23:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Seriously Respected oncology focused bio is almost in freefall. This peer group phenomenon appears unprecedented since 1/1/13 $XBI $IOVA $AUTL $YMAB $GERN $DAWN $SNDX Even $URGN is off 40% from its 6/24 $17.50/sh offering but wouldn't fit on this page. Other $XFOR $CHRS $IBRX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1901455316845224099)  2025-03-17T02:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"FY2526 revenue multiples of comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios w/MCs of 2-$15B @ 3/21/25 1:45 PM. $SRPT trades @ lowest [--] multiple but reported a SAE this week (estimates may be adjusted). $XBI $ACAD $JAZZ $FOLD $RARE $MIRM $CPRX $PTCT $CORT $AXSM $IONS $MDGL $TGTX $GKOS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1903149987829096622)  2025-03-21T18:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Centerview notes a peer median year [--] M&A revenue multiple of 1.7X in the $CMRX peer group v. 6.0X in $MRTX (see snapshots). 10-year revenue forecasts suggest the higher the revenue $ the higher the multiple $SWTX $TGTX $MDGL $CYTK $AVDL $XERS $ARDX $SPRY $HROW $PHAT $ESPR $AUPH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1903831053741015379)  2025-03-23T15:27Z [----] followers, 14.8K engagements


"Peak to low $XBI v. [--] comm'l-stage oncology focused bios since 7/1/24. We could [--] w/MC's btwn $200 & $12B. $URGN turning $LEGN $BPMC $IOVA $GERN $IBRX $IMCR $DAWN $SNDX $AUTL $YMAB. Not as dramatic incl $SWTX $INCY $EXEL $ZYME $DCTH $TLX $NVCR $MRUS $JAZZ. Close to $200= $FENC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1903982588844208419)  2025-03-24T01:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"All new comm'l-stage bios actual product sales by quarter post launch FY25/26 revenue estimates & related multiples. $IOVA $GERN $AVDL $PHAT $CRMD trade @ the lowest FY25/26multiples. $XBI $AXSM $SCPH $TGTX $ARQT $KRYS $TARS $MDGL $VRNA $TLX $IMCR $FENC $DCTH $DAWN $XFOR $SNDX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1905778468673208808)  2025-03-29T00:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"FY28 revenue multiples of all comm'l-stage oncology focused bios $200MM+ in MC @ 3/31/25. $IOVA $AUTL $URGN $DAWN $GERN trade @ lowest multiples of FY28 est. $XBI Others incl $RIGL $JAZZ $YMAB $NVCR $INCY $SNDX $IMCR $GMAB $LEGN $DCTH $SWTX $EXEL $IBRX $ONC $BPMC $ZYME $TLX $MRUS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1906890242050687032)  2025-04-01T02:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Of [---] public bios (clinical & comm'l) w/$200MM+ MC $PCVX $CADL $QURE $RCKT $BHVN are [--] of [--] down 24%+ the last [--] days. $XBI This is not investment advice but all [--] have respected therapies in dev (but clinical-stage). Others down 24%+ $SANA $CAPR $VERV $ANNX $TSHA $ARQT $NGNE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907242822849171662)  2025-04-02T01:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"FY26 revenue multiples of all [--] non-BP comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios w/MC's $200MM+ @ 4/1/25. $SRPT $ARDX $JAZZ $TVTX $FOLD & $NBIX appear outliers. Patent life not incl. This is not investment advice. $XBI $PCRX $HRMY $ACAD $BCRX $APLS $INVA $AUPH $RARE $TARS $DVAX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907426040147853748)  2025-04-02T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The $XBI was at a 6-year low & lower than today when $ABBV acq $IMGN & $BMY acq $MRTX. Hence the evidence suggests a $SWTX B/O is not being held up due to the XBI (by itself). Everyone wins w/M&A (patients h/c costs & S/Hs). Tariff uncertainty $INCY $EXEL $BPMC $IOVA $JAZZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1908535267935375734)  2025-04-05T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$NBIX & $SRPT are unique comm'l-stage bios @ $2B/yr/sales from $0 [--] years ago. The attached compares NBIX/SRPT valuation v 10-year revenue estimates to [--] peers acq the last [--] years incl $ITCI $IMGN $GWPH $MDVN. $XBI $JAZZ $EXEL $ONC $ARGX $INSM $ASND $CORT $TGTX $AXSM $ACAD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1908958128177131733)  2025-04-06T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ONC & Blackstone investments in $AUTL suggests considerable Obe-Cel's valuation potential based on royalties purchased. $XBI Other recent royalty investments that suggest valuation upside includes $NUVB $ASND $KALV $SCPH $GERN $SNDX $IBRX $VRNA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911440445692932311)  2025-04-13T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Graphs of [--] comm'l-stage oncology focused bios SP w/meaningful market caps & TAMs off big since 11/1/24 excl $YMAB. All [--] have respected therapies. Non-oncology as a peer group has held off better. Any sincere speculation as to why $XBI $IOVA $GERN $AUTL $SNDX $NVCR $DAWN $IBRX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1913288495004631257)  2025-04-18T17:48Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements


"Biggest gains in bio ($50MM+ MC$1/sh last [--] days $LXEO (after Friedrich Ataxia data recall Reata). LXEO MC is still south of $100MM. $KOD down 80% since xmas $QURE (see prior post) $VERV from cholesterol data & Cantor upgrade & $GPCR after $PFE dropped obesity program $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914493646805852558)  2025-04-22T01:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If $SWTX is being acq for $3.5B then the EV = $3.0B. Seeking Alpha & Fintel note FY28 (4 years from now) revenue estimates @ $1.03$1.06B. Using the lower suggests SWTX is being acquired at a 2.9X Year [--] multiple. See our snapshot of peers per Centerview from $MRTX $BMY. $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1915758104362262816)  2025-04-25T13:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Updated comm'l-stage bio M&A of 1st appr since 1/1/13. In oncology [--] of [--] sold @ gains were sold w/in [--] years of FDA appr. In non-oncology [--] of [--] w/in [--]. Is the message self-evident $XBI $MESO $BBIO $ABEO $ITRM $SPRY $VRNA $MDGL $CRMD $CRSP $IRD $TARS $VRCA $TVTX $PHAT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1916509483544555851)  2025-04-27T15:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Share price history of [--] comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios with MCs $2B+ & meaningful sales potential since 7/1/24. It appears [--] of the [--] have recovered since tariff sell-off excl $APLS $XBI $NBIX $SRPT $RARE $JAZZ $IONS $AXSM $GKOS $VRNA $PTCT. Others incl $BBIO $CORT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1916560486620872957)  2025-04-27T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$AXSM & $ASND had moreless the same FY23/24 sales & have like 10-year projections yet AXSM trades @ 1/2 ASND's market cap AXSM had higher GM in FY24. This is not to bash ASND but ask why $TGTX also trades @ a ASND multiple of cumulative 10-year projections. $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917270348770201731)  2025-04-29T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage bio valuations as multiples of cumulative 10-year projected revenues (v M&A peer group). M&A multiples range from [----] - 0.78X (median 0.40). $HRMY & $APLS trade @ 0.14X. $SRPT $JAZZ & $NBIX are well below M&A peer group. Our club owns all [--]. $AXSM $ASND $TGTX $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1917625281193414895)  2025-04-30T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Historical likelihood of FDA approval by stage & therapy type a reason we avoid pre-P3 clinical-stage bios as the odds long. Net P3 50%. P2 25%. P1 10%. $XBI. Near term P3 $DBVT $MESO $SPRO $CMPS $GYRE $ANAB $ARCT $ZYME $PYPD $PTGX $PRTA $CELC $HRMY $ATAI $AMLX $ABVX $PRAX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1918715092834676891)  2025-05-03T17:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The best time of every quarter when comm'l bios update. $NBIX continues to trade @ a low multiple of revenues v like peers & should provide a Crinecerfont update. Our records indicate $TGTX $BCRX & $AXSM beat every qtr last year. $SNDX also trades at a low multiple v peers. $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1919179499805057505)  2025-05-04T23:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Per $SWTX prelim 14A filing not [--] "Big Pharma" was interested in buying [--] new FDA approved drugs for more than 2.6X FY28 (Year 4) projected revenues. Less than [--] bios have had [--] major drugs approved in the last [--] years. i.e. $ASND $ACAD $SNDX $SRPT $NBIX $INSM $IONS $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924170559203447080)  2025-05-18T18:29Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements


"Comm'l-stage bio values as multiples of 10-year projected revenues v. recent peer M&A. $SRPT trades @ 0.12X cumulative 10-year projected analysts revenue est where $ITCI was acquired @ 0.41X. $XBI $NBI $IBBQ $RARE $APLS $FOLD $HRMY $ANIP $JAZZ $AXSM $NBIX $ACAD $PTCT $ASND $TGTX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1926292767065436616)  2025-05-24T15:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"FY28 (Year 4) revenue multiples of comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios w/$1B+ MC + $ARDX b/c it trades @ a low multiple (w/FY34 patent exp). $ITCI was acq @ 5.5X & $SWTX @ 2.6X $XBI $SRPT $PCRX $HRMY $JAZZ $APLS $TVTX $TARS $RARE $BHVN $ARQT $AXSM $NBIX $BCRX $AUPH $AGIO $SPRY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926324810226786386)  2025-05-24T17:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"FY28 (Year 4) multiples of comm'l-stage oncology focused bios w/MCs $400MM+. $ITCI was acq @ 5.5X FY28 & $SWTX @ 2.6X. $XBI $NBI $IOVA $AUTL $DAWN $JAZZ $GERN $SNDX $LEGN $INCY $NVCR $GMAB $IMCR $IBRX $ONC $DCTH $EXEL $BPMC $ZYME $TLX $MRUS. PDUFAs = $REPL $NUVB $VSTM (P2) $CRDF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926331827553251710)  2025-05-24T17:37Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements


"A comparison of $AVDL valuation as a multiple of projected revenues & est gross margins versus peers incl $CPRX $APLS $MIRM $BCRX $HRMY $VCEL $FOLD $TARS $ARQT $TVTX $AUPH $ARDX. It is surprising AVDL is at the median across the board. O/c some data points may be wrong. $XBI $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1930666996426764700)  2025-06-05T16:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Larger comm'l-stage bio [--] week SP chge v $XBI @ 6.6% & 10-year revenue multiples. $SRPT is up after $RGNX DMD data & ScotiaBank upgrade but still trades @ low multiple v peers. $TGTX & $ASND are highest (see M&A multiples). $FOLD was unchanged last [--] weeks. $RARE $APLS $PTCT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1931177633297154301)  2025-06-07T02:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"6 comm'l-stage bio M&A trx incl EV as a multiple of cumulative 10-year revenue projections (range [----] to 0.42X). $DAWN MC = 11% of 10-year consensus (DAWN's EV 0.05X). Is it time DAWN's BOD consider alternate strategies to maximize S/H value Next up $SNDX $AUTL $XBI $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932235686045790518)  2025-06-10T00:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TARS trades @ 0.17X 10-year analyst consensus revenue ests (as of 6/10/25). Attached are like multiples paid in [--] peer comm'l-stage bio M&A trxs. "Mid-size" peer group were acq @ a median 0.40X multiple (but range from [----] - 0.78X). $BPMC $SWTX $ITCI $ARQT $AGIO $XBI $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932614817518420148)  2025-06-11T01:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Graph compares Briumvi $TGTX product revenues by quarter since its Q123 launch to Epidiolex from $GWPH. Gross margins are close. GWPH was acquired for an EV of $6.7B. TGTX's MC = $5.2B pre-dilution Would TGTX investors offer a perspective (sub Briumvi) This is not advice. $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1934702954713366840)  2025-06-16T20:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$BPMC filed their 14D9 today that includes peer Year [--] (FY2028) revenue multiples paid in recent bio M&A. This is not investment advice but comm'l-stage bios rumored to be pot'l M&A candidates include $TARS $VRNA $LEGN $MRUS $MDGL $FOLD $INSM $ZYME $MIRM $ASND $BBIO $MESO $SNDX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1935055458311537007)  2025-06-17T19:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A $SNDX $INCY Niktimvo revenue forecast using $RPRX data points per its 11/24 investor pres. RPRX notes its $350MM investment will be repaid 2.35X (or $822.5MM) by FY38. This would be $5.96B in cumulative sales. Our forecast results in an 11.4% IRR = "low double digits" per RPRX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939425044809064712)  2025-06-29T20:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$VSTM is down 50% since approval If $VSTM analyst estimates are credible & if their combo therapy is worth a peer M&A multiple then. 95-98% of new cancer drugs in Phase [--] are never approved so if VSTM continues developing their pipeline as an independent then. $XBI $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940108298210222578)  2025-07-01T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$DCTH trades lower v. its 12/2/24 close. The last [--] times DCTH reported prior quarter's sales shares jumped 32% 41% & 55% the following [--] weeks. This is not investment advice b/c we have no idea what will happen next time but DCTH reports Q225 sales on or around 8/8/25 $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942586535985156451)  2025-07-08T14:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ZVRA is up 28% the last [--] weeks. We track all comm'l-stage bios via graphs like the [--] attached. ZVRA is the only graph that sticks out like this on as best we can tell no news/disclosures. Those like $VRNA $INSM & $RYTM had catalysts. Are we missing any ZVRA catalyst $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1943755166886637778)  2025-07-11T19:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"FY26 multiples for all [--] comm'l-stage (& pre) oncology (MCs $200MM+) & all [--] non-oncology (MCs $600MM+) focused bios $IOVA data in certain lung cancers imminent We'd guess M&A candidates incl $TARS $AGIO $JAZZ $TVTX $FOLD $TGTX $SNDX via $INCY $MRUS $BBIO $CORT $IONS $INSM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1944063284342403080)  2025-07-12T15:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$INKT 's 1-day gain of 730% appears to be a record going back to 1/1/2022 (post $XBI crash). Others north of 200% since 1/1/2022 incl $VTGN $MNPR $PROK $SLNO $JSPR $SNTI $SRRK $PHVS $SYRE $CADL $SMMT $MDGL (watch dilutives) $CRBP $SPRO $BDTX $GYRE $JANX $NBTX $KALA $CMRX $RETA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944249350542045221)  2025-07-13T04:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FOLD was upgraded by Morgan Stanley this AM. Attached is a comparison of FOLD's 10-year revenue multiple v. peers (M&A & independents). $TARS & $APLS also trade at lower multiples (there may be good reason too) $XBI $AXSM $MDGL $ACAD $PTCT $MIRM $IONS $ALKS $CORT $SLNO $NBIX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1945827086632993083)  2025-07-17T12:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Table notes the share price today v. @ FDA approval date for all [---] new comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios since 1/1/13. These are tracked manually so o/c we may have missed [--] or [--] (or a split). $XBI Biggest winners: $VCEL $CPRX $ADMA $INSM $ZEAL $TGTX $LQDA $ALNY $RYTM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1946950812783010219)  2025-07-20T15:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SNDX is up but off 60% since 7/16/24 Revuforj's projected sales profile (w/a 10/25 label exp) is consistent w/peers acq for $1.7-$2.2B (CTIC SRRA $KDMN $KYTH AGIO) 1st year Niktimvo sales $ projected to be 50% more than Rezurock acq for $1.9B. SNDX owns 1/3 of Niktimvo $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1947745795173646782)  2025-07-22T19:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Updated $SNDX 10-year revenue multiple = 0.14X v peer M&A revenue multiples paid of [----] - 0.42X $VRNA filed its prelim 14A filing this AM. VRNA's 10-year revenue estimates per mgmt were 20% higher than analysts. Hence VRNA was acq for 0.36X 10-year revenues $XBI $INCY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1952740822312517867)  2025-08-05T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MDGL Rezdiffra product sales by quarter post FDA approval v. PCYC Imbruvica. $PCYC was acq by $ABBV for $20.2B in Q215. These are not apples to apples for multiple reasons (oncology v non # of late-stage studies & label expansions etc). Can Imbruvica otherwise be a peer $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952914556319105382)  2025-08-06T02:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TARS /Xdemvy product sales by quarter post FDA approval v. $TGTX $AXSM & $GWPH like sales post their approvals. Raw data is boxed on the bottom right TARS gross margins are highest among the [--] Please this is not to bash TGTX nor AXSM but rather to highlight TARS $XBI $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1953212322081824907)  2025-08-06T21:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MDGL fully diluted market cap is roughly 35% higher than reported by traditional stock screeners because dilutive shares are roughly 35% higher. We calculate MDGL's fully diluted market cap at $10.479B using the Treasury Stock Method"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954269962681651335)  2025-08-09T19:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Hypothetical $SNDX M&A valuations using $SWTX peer Year [--] M&A revenue multiples & SNDX FY2029 analyst revenue estimates. This is not investment advice but the attachment suggests upside should $INCY acq SNDX Other oncology M&A candidates $VSTM $AUTL $DAWN $XBI $NBI $LABU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956345737085636985)  2025-08-15T13:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage bio (oncology & non) actual Q225 revenues v. consensus. IMHO $IONS had the most impressive beat & raise. This is not investment advice. For entertainment purposes only $XBI Other noteworthy: $ASND $BBIO $MDGL $ALKS $ANIP $ZYME $SNDX $ARDX $ARQT $CRMD $EXEL $BMRN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957140232672878968)  2025-08-17T17:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Updated FY26-28 revenue multiples for comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios w/MCs btwn $1-$5B @ 8/22/25 It appears $FOLD $ARDX $TVTX & $TARS are low (patent exp) $TGTX may appear high but estimates may be discounted $XBI Others $CRSP $ALKS $PTCT $SLNO $MIRM $RARE $CPRX $BCRX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959314507416699349)  2025-08-23T17:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage oncology focused bio M&A since 1/1/17 incl. [--] w/1st approvals pre-FY13 & [--] pre-comm'l (yesterday's post noted [--] trxs) [--] YTD in FY25 $BMY was busiest w/3. [--] peers @ [--] [--] years since $PFE closed $SGEN this 12/25 $GSK & $GILD have been quiet Not [--] for $MRK $XBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959729160659878078)  2025-08-24T21:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Comm'l-stage bio valuations as multiples of FY28 ests cumulative 10-year est & GPM. This is [--] of dozens of comps to consider. $XBI $SNDX $TARS $TVTX $FOLD $APLS still trade @ lower multiples than peers $LEGN has been down but. $VSTM LGSOC + [----] $JAZZ $TGTX $PTCT $AUTL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1959963190965477475)  2025-08-25T12:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Share price changes non-oncology focused bio (MC $500MM+) since 7/31/2025 w/1st or major appr since 1/1/17 $XBI $XERS $ARDX patent cliff in FY34 like $TVTX. Both trade @ low multiple of 10-year revenue forecasts (less than 0.15X) v. peers $TARS was down pre-Q2 CC $LQDA $MIRM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1961225409023942850)  2025-08-29T00:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$DAWN 10-year analyst estimates v [--] peers that exited via M&A post FDA approval $CTIC $SRRA $KDMN While DAWN is up from its $5.67 low from earlier this month after their Q2 [--] CC DAWN still trades at a fraction of analyst estimates (which may assume Firefly is a success)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961811916487111050)  2025-08-30T15:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$NUVL analyst consensus revenue estimates v $MRUS (as of date the acquisition was announced) & MRUS mgmt prepared forecasts. We're merely sharing data. This is not investment advice. $GMAB $XBI $IBB $NBI $IBBQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1994950982036533726)  2025-11-30T02:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Revenue multiples for all comm'l-stage oncology v non w/1st appr since 1/1/20 & $1-$5B MCs Oncology continues to trade @ lower multiples than non $SNDX v $ARQT $TARS $TGTX $AQRT $MIRM $TARS $TVTX $KNSA $LQDA $APLS $SLNO $MESO $AUPH $INVA $BCRX $ARDX $PGEN $PHAT $XBI $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1996571879117619504)  2025-12-04T13:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$XBI the week before of & after $JPM HC Conf last [--] years.up then down year after year. If history repeats itself the XBI will trade lower this year (o/c a coincidence) XBI sensitive $IBB $ONC $GMAB $INCY $SNDX $NUVB $ARGX $INSM $RPRX $MDGL $ASND $IONS $BMRN $ARWR $AXSM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2008941766225862795)  2026-01-07T16:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$DAWN FY25 - FY34 analyst consensus revenue est v. like forecasts of peers recently acq yet DAWN's EV is a fraction (not the same as MC). There likely enough existing patient data today to know if Firefly P3 succeeds. DAY-301 Odds are DAWN sale maximizes SH value. $XBI $NBI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1927113036818485728)  2025-05-26T21:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Updated schedule of what's happened to the SP of all [--] publicly-held bios that received FDA approval for a cancer therapy since 1/1/2023. The evidence is overwhelming oncology bio shareholders are best served via M&A. $KPTI $XBI $NBI $ESALF $PBYI $IOVA $CHRS $FENC $BLRX $REPL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1929705618920952075)  2025-06-03T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"All [--] comm'l-stage oncology focused bios v. all [--] non-oncology w/MCs $1.5B+ & v. all [--] w/MCs $160MM to $1.5B. Oncology as a whole trades @ lower FY28 multiples & have fared worse as a peer group YTD $XBI $NBI $IOVA $JAZZ $LEGN $GMAB $SNDX $ARGX $BBIO $CORT $KNSA $TWST $SPRY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/1947016379896385898)  2025-07-20T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Share price chge of all [--] new comm'l-stage oncology focused bios since 1/1/13 S/H value is maximized almost 100% of the time via M&A exit within [--] years of 1st approval Pushback $XBI $IBB $NBI $RIGL $KURA $NUVB $AUTL $ADAp $GERN $DCTH $IMCR $MRUS $ONC $LEGN $MGNX $ESALF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NightOwlBiotech/status/2009668444434903249)  2026-01-09T16:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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