#  @zoozai_invest Shira Zevin Shira Zevin posts on X about $fisv, business, $fi, ceo the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1916960587323715584/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +175% - [--] Month [------] +534% - [--] Months [-------] +645% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1916960587323715584/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -24% - [--] Month [--] +235% - [--] Months [---] +113% ### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1916960587323715584/followers)  - [--] Week [---] +2.50% - [--] Month [---] +18% - [--] Months [---] +205% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1916960587323715584/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 63% [finance](/list/finance) 43% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 6% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 5% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 2% [countries](/list/countries) 2% [formula 1](/list/formula-1) 1% **Social topic influence** [$fisv](/topic/$fisv) 28%, [business](/topic/business) 17%, [$fi](/topic/$fi) 14%, [ceo](/topic/ceo) #3080, [$upst](/topic/$upst) #49, [$syf](/topic/$syf) 10%, [$afrm](/topic/$afrm) 8%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 8%, [fintech](/topic/fintech) 7%, [$lbzz](/topic/$lbzz) 6% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@penguincapital7](/creator/undefined) [@ndeprecive](/creator/undefined) [@mrbennychan](/creator/undefined) [@markledain](/creator/undefined) [@davidmarcus](/creator/undefined) [@stellarcat2](/creator/undefined) [@investspecial](/creator/undefined) [@halviocapital](/creator/undefined) [@davegirouards](/creator/undefined) [@kakashiii111](/creator/undefined) [@vibeship1](/creator/undefined) [@mr_benny_chan](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Fiserv Inc (FISV)](/topic/$fisv) [Fiserv, Inc. (FI)](/topic/$fi) [Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)](/topic/$upst) [Synchrony Financial (SYF)](/topic/$syf) [Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)](/topic/$afrm) [Klarna Group plc (KLAR)](/topic/$klar) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [Ape Now Think Later (KLARNA)](/topic/$klarna) [Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC)](/topic/$cacc) [CarMax, Inc (KMX)](/topic/$kmx) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Hut [--] Mining Corp. (HUT)](/topic/$hut) [Ally Financial, Inc. (ALLY)](/topic/$ally) [TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)](/topic/$tjx) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [WIX.com Ltd. (WIX)](/topic/$wix) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Among all the chaos in financial markets Im fetching all public auto-loan ABS data- loan-by-loan monthly over the past year totaling 70M+ loans. Covers [--] major auto lenders and platforms. With names like $CVNA $KMX $ALLY Honda Toyota World Omni and more. The data is now loading and going through initial processing so its actually usable. This week should be full of insights. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018038062731931880 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018038062731931880" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2018038062731931880) 2026-02-01T19:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Before $UPST earnings tomorrow: Would you rather: Trust an AI summary or skim [--] pages or ask a question and instantly see the source text Were building #3. Early access ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021000507729363017) 2026-02-09T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "All the changes in $UPST personnel with details: CEO transition Paul Gu (Co-founder) appointed CEO effective May [--] [----] Base salary: $540k Target bonus: 100% Equity: $37M PRSUs Dave Girouard steps down as CEO: Becomes Executive Chairman w/ base salary reduced to $15k remains on the Board President & Chief Capital Officer Sanjay Datta appointed President & Chief Capital Officer (effective immediately) Base salary: $485k Target bonus: 100% Equity: $7.5M PRSUs (same performance framework as CEO) CFO transition Andrea Blankmeyer appointed CFO effective March [--] [----] Datta remains CFO until then" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021333392109764798) 2026-02-10T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "๐จWhy $FISV looks less like a broken business and more like a great infrastructure company paying the price for years of short-term optimization and underinvestment. I just published a new blog post diving deep into whats actually going on under the hood business mix margins culture reset balance-sheet risks and why the problems are mostly self-inflicted not structural. IMO a must-read ahead of $FISV earnings in two weeks and one of the more interesting opportunities out there right now. Link in comments๐ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015748016024518897" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015748016024518897) 2026-01-26T11:25Z [---] followers, 31.4K engagements "Wow. Not sure if this is more bullish for $FISV or $AFRM but its a big win for both. Fiserv and Affirm just teamed up to bring BNPL directly into debit cards at banks and credit unions. For Fiserv this pushes banks and credit unions back to the front line of lending letting them offer BNPL without building new credit products or losing users to third-party apps. For Affirm its a massive distribution unlock: instant access to Fiservs huge FI client base and everyday debit spend way more top-of-wallet traffic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015783812660134000" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015783812660134000) 2026-01-26T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Today Synchrony ( $SYF ) reports earnings before the open. This could genuinely be one of the more interesting opportunities out there. But since the announcement by Donald Trump about a potential 10% cap on credit-card interest for a year the risk feels too high for me right now. I dont think such a cap in the way its currently suggested is reasonable and Im skeptical it will actually be implemented. Still predicting the behavior of the current U.S. president isnt something Im comfortable betting on. So for now Im staying on the sidelines. Ill be watching the results closely though" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2016098492976914868) 2026-01-27T10:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PenguinCapital7 All there's to know on the state of these auto loans in the past year (interest charge-offs delinquencies grace collateralization % and many more) . I am preparing a list of business questions that interest me - but if anyone has anything in particular - drop it below" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2018054090782023849) 2026-02-01T20:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Post [--] of [--] ๐งต Wow. I didnt expect the loan-by-loan dataset to feel this overwhelming. Not because of the size (though its big and I now realize I need to go [--] years back for anything truly meaningful). Its the possibilities. There are so many dimensions here that its not obvious where the story even begins. Youve got: + Captive lenders (Honda Toyota Mercedes) where the car is the product the loan is a means to sell it + Non-captives where the loan is the product + Prime vs non-prime + Different origination years + Brands behaving very differently from each other So I decided to KISS. I" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2018447494477160899) 2026-02-02T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@mr_Benny_Chan Thanks for the insight. You're right to call the fact that $KMX also securitizes from previous years usually [--] year back is the most dominant" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2018643035878531325) 2026-02-03T11:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@mark_ledain Just treat it as opportunity at least regarding $FISV" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2019001938818261422) 2026-02-04T10:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "So whos the automaker with 60% of non-prime loans below a [---] FICO while most captives have essentially zero Ford ( $F ). This likely reflects Fords much broader mass-market in the U.S. which naturally pulls in a wider credit spectrum. Next to Ford Honda is the only other captive with meaningful exposure at 20% of non-prime loans below [---]. By contrast Toyota Mercedes-Benz Hyundai and BMW effectively wont sell to that part of the credit spectrum at all. Continuing the analysis Im now moving from non-captive lenders to captive auto loans- loans originated by the auto manufacturers themselves." [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2019077326349140284) 2026-02-04T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Could you have spotted the shift @davidmarcus describes just by reading $PYPL 's earnings releases I pulled [--] versions of the same Business Overview section from PayPal reports over the years (201520202025) You can clearly spot language change. From customer-first to mission-led to fully abstract technical framing. But this is totally subjective (even if obvious). Which is exactly why I rely on embedding and tracking key signals over time when analyzing filings to catch under-the-radar shifts before they become obvious in the numbers. A few thoughts about PayPal nearly [--] years after I left." [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2019462140059382045) 2026-02-05T17:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "With $FISV earnings coming up early next week this is a good moment to revisit my take on the business ๐จWhy $FISV looks less like a broken business and more like a great infrastructure company paying the price for years of short-term optimization and underinvestment. I just published a new blog post diving deep into whats actually going on under the hood business mix margins ๐จWhy $FISV looks less like a broken business and more like a great infrastructure company paying the price for years of short-term optimization and underinvestment. I just published a new blog post diving deep into" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2019465192648630307) 2026-02-05T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$UPST earnings are coming this week and I know a lot of people will be digging through the numbers once the report is out. Im opening a small private MVP that I built to help with exactly that- asking concrete questions and getting answers straight from the 10-K / 10-Q with the exact source attached every time. This is a free early-stage product very much an MVP and Ill only be able to open it to a small group (around [----] users) due to compute limits. Its built for investors who care about primary sources and want to validate things themselves. Theres a short demo below showing the" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2020654350440210531) 2026-02-09T00:21Z [---] followers, 10.7K engagements "Continuing the analysis Im now moving from non-captive lenders to captive auto loans- loans originated by the auto manufacturers themselves. In the dataset this includes Ford Honda Hyundai Nissan Toyota BMW and Volkswagen spanning everything from mass-market to luxury. Before even getting into borrower mix the data makes one thing very clear: because the car is the product and the loan is primarily a sales enabler APRs are mostly in the mid-single digits pools are overwhelmingly prime and across most parameters there is far less fluctuation over time compared to non-captives. Against that" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2018788479875027059) 2026-02-03T20:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Post [--] of [--] Another super interesting dimension emerged once I stopped looking only at borrower characteristics and asked a different question: What do these companies actually bundle and how quickly do they sell originated loans At one extreme sits $CVNA. Its trusts are composed almost entirely of loans originated in the same year. Which could mean: it keeps essentially no loans on the balance sheet or loans it cant sell quickly are simply unsellable even years later. On the other end of the spectrum sits $ALLY especially in non-prime segment. Here loans entering a trust can be [--] years old" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2018447498629538167) 2026-02-02T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$FISV just released full-year results. As Ive said before- no broken business case here. Management was razor-sharp on the call. They explicitly said no negative surprises since the last update. In fact some positives emerged. They were also very clear: meaningful improvement (One Fiserv) takes work and they expect progress to show closer to end of H1 [----]. The Financial segment is clearly where most of the pain sits. Since [----] Fiserv has been modernizing the solution. Prior management pushed forced upgrades which drove client attrition. Thats no longer the approach. Other notable points:" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021224954713211051) 2026-02-10T14:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Super interesting IPO coming up- Clear Street. Never heard of them before but once I started reading the prospectus it actually sounds very interesting. Why Fintech. Already profitable. Nice margins. Fast growth. And a business thats quite easy to understand-capital markets infrastructure. Itll take time to read through the entire prospectus and an IPO filing deserves that attention. Until then a few numbers / facts: 3.8% of total U.S. equity clearing volume goes through the platform Revenue driven mainly by net financing spreads + transactions Their platform unifies trading & execution risk" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021329302092976218) 2026-02-10T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$UPST That CEO transition in full force" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2021336706138636575) 2026-02-10T21:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "5/ Contrast with $CACC 's reported risk: Their immigration risk comes from employees not customers. Reliance on foreign engineers under H-1B visas means visa restrictions could raise costs or slow operations" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972408060783280163) 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "6/ So: $LBZZ immigration affects the borrowers $CACC immigration affects the talent Same sector very different exposures" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972408062779838707) 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "7/ ๐ก Have you ever thought about how policy changes like immigration enforcement could ripple into fintech and lending Its not obvious but for companies like $LBZZ its real and something investors should consider" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972408064734269558) 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks. I was not aware of perspective on lien perfection + franchised dealers . Id just add: while $LBZZ does mention negative publicity around undocumented immigrants the broader risk isnt only about them. A big part of their customer base is legal immigrants with thin / invisible credit files (the exact problem LendBuzz was founded to solve). So shifts in legal immigration patterns or policy can also affect their core audience. That said I agree with you that the overall risk is probably limited. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972665551655739878" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1972665551655739878) 2025-09-29T14:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I was waiting to see what Lendbuzz ( $LBZZ ) IPO would price at. Now with First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies Im starting to wonder if it happens at all. If it does maybe well actually see a reasonably priced IPO. Hope so" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1974533812957990968) 2025-10-04T17:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "BTW I don't think you can compare a non auto loan-like $UPST- to $LBZZ. Since the biggest potential for trouble in auto loans is the misalignment in interest between the dealer and the loan originator. Other than $CACC which has a business model that aligns it by default it's a major issue which consumer loans originators don's suffer from. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1974969069419000162 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1974969069419000162" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1974969069419000162) 2025-10-05T22:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Crazy: looked up funds holding Tricolor Auto Securitization notes most showed yields around 6% (). Think about that: they were taking subprime auto risk for near Fed-rate returns while Tricolors borrowers were likely paying high double-digit APRs. Sure defaults are brutal but the gap is still wild. The only real winners The originators & servicers skimming fees the only sure cash flow in this whole chain. In the picture some of the trusts holding $tricolor's junk: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976380445521575961 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976380445521575961" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1976380445521575961) 2025-10-09T20:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@stellarcat2 Good Catch. Raising no-FICO in Prime trusts is even more severe. Looks like they started extending loans to a new cohort with less or no credit history. $LBZZ business is all about that. I do wonder if $CVNA is doing it carefully though" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1982220771758911639) 2025-10-25T23:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@InvestSpecial @HalvioCapital Great thread thanks Regarding $MCCK with the CEO holding 75% and already showing a willingness to use company cash for commodity trading isnt there a risk he could take other actions that arent necessarily optimal for minority shareholders" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1995128386318901548) 2025-11-30T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I want to talk today about an undiscussed point related to some of the fintech lenders weve talked about before like $UPST $AFRM $KLAR and others. Did you ever stop to think about the consequences of having a huge dataset of loans their model-predicted outcomes and actual outcomes but no data at all on the loans that were not approved In data science terms the entire negative side is missing. Were completely blind there. And why would we care exactly After all we only care about loans we actually extended. We cant lose money on loans we didnt make right Id argue we do care and that this can" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2001047769310548078) 2025-12-16T21:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "So after I was lucky enough to get @davegirouards detailed reply on how $UPST handles biased-data risk I was honestly relieved to hear how much effort goes into minimizing it (and frankly a bit troubled that Ive never come across a comparable discussion when reading $KLAR s reports for example). So as investors what can we take from this Most importantly: Not all datasets are born the same. It depends who made them. Millions of loans sounds impressive but data in AI lending isnt neutral. Its shaped by decisions made by management research teams approval policies and exploration frameworks." [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2001307388981203078) 2025-12-17T15:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "โMore thoughts from a long flight with a printed copy of Upstart's latest report: In their latest quarterly earnings $UPST disclosed something new last quarter: for the first time they quantified how much of their balance-sheet loans are held for R&D / model development. The number is striking: 71%. On a $1.23B balance sheet thats roughly $873M () in loans intentionally retained for experimentation. I tried looking back a few quarters this split wasnt disclosed before. Conceptually I dont mind this at all. In fact Id rather see a much high % here as it would mean loans sit on the balance" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2001937260766171430) 2025-12-19T08:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "So what does $SYF actually do and why is it interesting Synchrony Financial is a credit card company that partners with some of the biggest retailers in the U.S. Think $AMZN Lowes $PYPL $TJX Sams Club Verizon and many more. Its core business is issuing: Private-label credit cards (store cards) Co-branded / general-purpose cards Most of these partnerships are multi-year and exclusive which makes the business relatively stable and sticky. Retailers dont switch issuers lightly. That said revenue still comes largely from interest on loans so results are naturally exposed to: -Consumer health" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2008606512319787218) 2026-01-06T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "๐๐ Stopping the cold analysis of $SYF I had to ask myself: Why doesnt reading its reports excite me the way other companies do This is on paper a classic Warren Buffettstyle stock (he even held it in the past): Established profitable truly fintech deeply embedded in U.S. consumer spending. Something I should get excited about. And then it clicked. Whats missing at least in the reports is the tech story. Sure $SYF mentions: ML for marketing Models for credit approval Some real-time decisioning. But the language is strikingly non-technical. Even a simple search for AI turns up almost nothing." [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2008616244111389154) 2026-01-06T19:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$WIX As an R&D employee whenever a company forces a return to [--] days in the office it just sounds like desperation. Teams were working [--] days a week so that extra day is suddenly going to make them move faster Or is it just giving stressed management a short-term feeling of control I do wonder in light of the recent pricing spikes in $WIX products does this come from the same stressed feeling https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008894028679372822 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008894028679372822" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2008894028679372822) 2026-01-07T13:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "While reading $SYF reports and comparing them to other companies I couldnt stop wondering why retail investors seem to prefer $KLAR / $UPST-style neo-financing. Fundamentals often point the other way: old-school lenders usually fund cheaper they pay less in processing fees theyve been through cycles and know how to price risk And yet the preference is clear. Growth or potential growth is simply more attractive with the hope that fundamentals will follow years down the line. Personally Im starting to see quite a few attractive companies that are less reliant on AI/ML/models (pick the buzzword)" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2009000509344985517) 2026-01-07T20:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NDeprecive for which company" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2009207326658711692) 2026-01-08T10:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "As expected Vanguard reported yesterday that it owns 12% of $CVNA shares. Vanguard had to mechanically buy those shares after the stock was added to the S&P [---]. Thats 29M shares or roughly [--] trading days of average volume absorbed by forced passive demand. No wonder the price ended up where we see it today. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009215081381331158 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009215081381331158" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2009215081381331158) 2026-01-08T10:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I just came across the perfect example to showcase the tech differences between neo-fintechs and old-fashion lenders. In its latest quarterly report $SYF quietly updated how it calculates provisions for credit losses. Until recently losses were estimated using relatively simple pooled techniques think transition tables and historical averages. Now $SYF is moving to account-level modeling explicitly estimating probability of default and exposure at default incorporating macro variables like unemployment and reassessing assumptions quarterly. Thats a real upgrade much more granular &" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2009298988613218304) 2026-01-08T16:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I came across $FISV this week while reading $SYF reports. It was mentioned as the provider that they use to produce cards statements and other mailings to the deposit customers of Synchrony. I googled them and was shocked to discover one of the strongest financial infrastructure companies trading at what seems on the surface a deep discount. This is a $37B market-cap company and the price levels we currently see are similar to [----]. Is this a meaningful discount or a failing giant Will discover that. With less than a month away until next earnings this is the company Ill survey next week" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2009541730001920335) 2026-01-09T08:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "What I learnt from browsing Synchronys ( $SYF ) career site this week: [----] of their [-----] employees are based in the Philippines. Most open roles are outside the US. They seem to be only now building the infrastructure to measure Gen-AI. This suggests its mostly been used for internal / non-production use so far not as a core product layer. The analytics org is huge. They even run analytics for their merchant partners optimizing benefits campaigns approvals etc. But the analytics stack looks very old-school corporate: strong statistics serious work but SAS / SQL / Excel rather than modern ML" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2010074009229053965) 2026-01-10T19:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "๐จFunny that while Im deep into analyzing $SYF Trump announces his suggestion for a 10% one-year cap on credit card interest rates. This of course makes all current analysis results irrelevant unfortunately I genuinely cant understand how were supposed to make well-informed decisions in an environment like this. I was surprised however to find that this is not a new idea. Last year Sen. Sanders (S.381) proposed a 10% cap on credit card APR not just for one year but through [----] So yeah- lesson learned. When I went through the risk factors I was looking at charge-offs funding consumer behavior" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2010126455104016418) 2026-01-10T23:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This chart actually shows that we do have a problem with credit-card interest rates. Were now close to 21% APR which is higher than in the mid-1990s even though the Fed rate back then wasnt that different from today. So something clearly shifted. But a 10% cap Where does that number even come from What economic model says thats viable https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010299668706505095 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010299668706505095" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2010299668706505095) 2026-01-11T10:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Trumps 10% credit-card interest cap is already hitting pre-market. $SYF $BFH $COF all indicated -7.7% to -9% before the open" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2010645480943038965) 2026-01-12T09:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As I mentioned regarding the 10% interest cap seems like BNPL companies like $UPST $KLAR $AFRM taking hit just like CC companies. Not sure what will actually happen with the 10% cap thingy But it got me thinking - I keep seeing the take that BNPL will massively benefit from Trumps idea to cap credit-card APRs at 10%. I agree in the short term. But I think the second-order effect is being missed. If CCs Not sure what will actually happen with the 10% cap thingy But it got me thinking - I keep seeing the take that BNPL will massively benefit from Trumps idea to cap credit-card APRs at 10%. I" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2010801712190386302) 2026-01-12T19:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Started this week with Fiserv ( $FISV). The stock is down 58% in the past [--] months. New CEO. Other execs replaced. Guidance slashed. And the launch of the One Fiserv plan with five strategic pillars: Client-first mindset to win enterprise clients and grow ARPU Build the small-business OS via Clover Differentiated platforms in finance & commerce (embedded finance stablecoin etc.) Operational excellence powered by AI Disciplined capital allocation So yeah trouble at home. And yet this is one of the strongest financial infrastructure companies out there. Deeply embedded products S&P [---] member" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2010811509983846509) 2026-01-12T20:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Funny how Synchrony ( $SYF ) and Fiserv ( $FISV ) the two Im writing about this week just dropped a meaningful cooperation: Synchrony expanded CareCredits full financing integration on Fiservs Clover devices enabling providers to process the entire patient financing journey (from application to payment) right at the point of sale on Clover. This effectively embeds Synchronys card financing into Fiservs merchant ecosystem and scales to 40000+ health & wellness providers who use Clover hardware. This is exactly the type of payments solution that BNPL will never be able to replace as we know it" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2010831209744437652) 2026-01-12T21:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@NDeprecive yeah saw it. honestly I dont read too much into it I cant do anything intelligent with a picture. I try to ignore noise that I cant actually think with" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2010832833514799432) 2026-01-12T21:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@kakashiii111 Great breakdown. This is not a sustainable "growth" for how long more can they extend these arrangements until numbers force them to stop" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2010993000068104399) 2026-01-13T08:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ OK just started diving into Fiserv ( $FISV ) numbers and the first point to hit me was a 47% $37.5B of assets are Goodwill. Meaning were dealing with a massive merger case. Basically nearly half the companys "value" is just the premium they paid for old acquisitions. ๐งต" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011155160941412628) 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "2/ Then I went to read the M&As done just in the first [--] months of [----] and got this nice list: Payfare (Canada): $95M CCV Group (Netherlands): $226M Pinch Money Money CardFree & SCG: $76M total StoneCastle & TD Bank portfolio: Just signed for another $460M. They are definitely keeping the shopping spree alive. ๐ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011155163071820018 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011155163071820018" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011155163071820018) 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/ OK mergers are a fair way to grow. But this growth should at least reflect in free cash flow or revenue. What do we see there Here is the catch. Even with all these new buys the cash flow is actually shrinking. Year-to-date operating cash flow is $4.12B down from $4.41B last year. They are spending millions to buy companies but the effect is minimal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011155165714534891 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011155165714534891" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011155165714534891) 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/ Why is the cash flow stuck It looks like theyre in a "treadmill" situation. They have to dump more money into CapEx an extra $300M a year just to fix their old tech and keep up with faster rivals. So even when they buy a new company the costs of keeping the old ship floating are eating the gains" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011155168268832986) 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/ This is where the write-down risk gets real. When 47% of your assets are Goodwill youre basically telling auditors "trust us these deals were worth it." But management just slashed growth expectations for the year. When you cut your outlook that hard the auditors might start asking: "Is that $37B of goodwill actually worth $37B"" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011155170395054143) 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/ We already saw a $570M impairment recently and that might just be the appetizer. If the One Fiserv plan doesn't jumpstart that flat cash flow soon theyll be forced to admit they overpaid. A massive accounting charge wouldn't be a surprise at this point" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011155172798685504) 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "7/ Bottom line $FISV has an asset-heavy balance sheet but those assets are primarily tied to historical acquisition premiums rather than tangible equipment or cash. Until things start to look better that 47% goodwill ratio remains a significant valuation risk for the stock" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011155175223017777) 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Let's dive into the heart of $FISV business. To understand where the company is headed we have to look at the revenue mix the shifting margins and the "cultural fix" currently underway. Let's break down the two core segments. ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011545297592467469) 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Merchant Solutions: This is the "front-end" of the business. Its all about helping businesses accept payments. It includes: Point-of-Sale (POS) hardware (like Clover) merchant acquiring and ecommerce integration. Its the high-growth engine of the company" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011545299463127360) 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3/ Financial Technology: This is the back-end part. Whats inside: Core banking ledgers debit/credit processing and digital banking software. These are long-term sticky contracts with banks credit card companies and credit unions. Its the steady foundation" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011545301312815488) 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "4/ On the top line these segments look fairly balanced distributing revenue roughly 50-50. The Merchant segment has maintained a slight advantage showing stronger growth over the past three years. However when looking at operating margins the two segments start to grow apart. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011545303304860035 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011545303304860035" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011545303304860035) 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5/ Financial Segment: These margins are solid at 4546%. Its a high-margin software-heavy business. Very stable very predictable. Merchant Segment: Margins have climbed from 30% to 35% in [--] years. While lower than Financial (due to hardware costs like Clover POS devices) the expansion is impressive. But how are they doing it" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011545305301598697) 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "6/ Let's look under the hood of Merchant revenue: Small Businesses (SMBs) make up a whopping 67%. Enterprises & processing make up the rest. The margin expansion is likely coming from SMBs. Revenue is outpacing expenses possibly due to Clover price hikes or underinvestment in service. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011545307343990906 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011545307343990906" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011545307343990906) 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "7/ For a small business a broken POS really hurts; it's a lost day of sales. Because Clover contracts often bind users for [--] years we might be seeing a delayed effect. Low customer service and product friction today dont affect numbers until tomorrow" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011545309143580861) 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "8/ In contrast the Financial Segment is evenly split between Digital Payments Issuing and Banking. These are enterprise-level software products. They are incredibly hard to replace giving $FISV a massive moat even if the Merchant side gets rocky" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011545311077155117) 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "9/ I heard some of the latest earnings call the CEO sounds impressively detail-oriented. He admitted that recent friction is "self-inflicted" and fixable. I believe him. However cultural change in those big companies is hard. True change requires more than new CxOs. It requires winning over middle management and ICs who are used to the status quo" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011545313199182243) 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "10/ I will keep reading but so far things look solid for $FISV. It seems the recent expectation resets were mainly (but not exclusively) due to an over-optimization of the future pushing for growth and margins that weren't sustainable without reinvestment" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011545314935914781) 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ While reading the small print on $FISV earnings I came across something I wasnt aware of before. Fiserv has $480M exposure related to auto and housing but its easy to miss when you look only at the balance sheet. Lets break it down ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011855633923129476) 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "2/ The exposure comes through two companies $FISV partially owns: defi solutions - software for loan & lease origination and servicing mainly for auto and consumer finance. Sagent software for mortgage origination and servicing used by banks and lenders" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011855636573630609) 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/ Heres the key point: These companies have roughly $480M of debt and $FISV guarantees the entire amount even though it owns only part of them. That guarantee is an off-balance-sheet exposure. It doesnt show up as debt at $FISV but if these companies cant pay Fiserv does. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011855639216058576 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011855639216058576" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011855639216058576) 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/ What does show up on $FISVs balance sheet An equity-method investment of $94M A recorded guarantee liability of just $14M So on the surface the balance sheet impact looks small compared to the $487M exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011855641216753831) 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "After breaking down the $487M off-balance-sheet debt exposure $FISV has through guarantees provided to defi SOLUTIONS and Sagent ๐ I wanted to focus on the business side of this partial ownership. Looking at their product portfolios defi and Sagent look like a very natural fit for Fiserv. They both solve a similar problem: loan life-cycle software infrastructure. But they do so in adjacent markets: auto and mortgage. I wouldnt be surprised if once the numbers stabilize Fiserv eventually moves to fully consolidate these businesses. All in all this looks like a thoughtful strategic investment" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2012142313015783664) 2026-01-16T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Operational Effectiveness. We believe we can further improve the quality of our client delivery while reducing our costs by using the opportunities created by our size and scale. This line is from $FISV s Feb [--] [----] annual report. The more reports I read the more I resonate with Warren Buffetts saying: turn every page. Hints about the real state of the business are usually there. Picking them up just requires thoroughness. No doubt a "multiyear transformation initiative focused on operational excellence enabled by artificial intelligence" was introduced a couple of months ago." [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2013280211400314891) 2026-01-19T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "๐งต $FISV Holiday Shopping Report 1/ Im reading the Holiday Shopping report $FISV recently published. Big picture: Things are softer but this does not look like a real consumer pullback. Consumers were more selective timing purchases around key events sales. There were also fewer trips but higher tickets that resulted in a total -0.8% less sales. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649730857767422 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649730857767422" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2013649730857767422) 2026-01-20T16:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Diving deeper two things stood out: [--]. Channel mix Same-store eCommerce sales were up +6.4% YoY while brick-and-mortar declined -1.7%. Even though eCommerce is only 11% of total retail sales it delivered almost all incremental growth. Physical stores were critical for immediacy and last-minute shopping but when it comes to growth its clearly happening online. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649733747642866 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649733747642866" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2013649733747642866) 2026-01-20T16:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3/ Second and more interesting takeaway: Credit vs Debit Theres a continued drift toward credit over debit. Credit transactions carried 70% higher average tickets than debit. This tells us consumers are protecting liquidity and using credit for larger curated purchases Spending is very controlled. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649738122301670 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649738122301670" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2013649738122301670) 2026-01-20T16:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "4/ From a $FISV perspective this matters. Fiserv makes more money on credit than debit so in the short run this mix shift is actually supportive for revenue quality and margins" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2013649740315967866) 2026-01-20T16:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/ But zooming out This is also what the average consumer has felt for a while: Things are tighter. Spending is deliberate. Credit is being used as a buffer. So the signal is mixed: Short term- better mix for processors Longer term- a reminder that consumer pressure hasnt gone away its just being managed. More as I keep digging. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649742278840466 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649742278840466" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2013649742278840466) 2026-01-20T16:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Just saw that a few days ago $AFRM s CEO got a new equity package (RSUs + PSUs) and its actually worth looking at the details๐ Max Levchin received 334k PSUs on top of RSUs. The PSUs run over a full 3-year period and can pay out anywhere between 0% and 200%. Miss the threshold - you get [--] Hit target - 100% Outperform - up to 200% The performance conditions are the same ones set for other execs back in September: Revenue less transaction costs growth (50%) Adjusted operating income growth (50%) Performance is measured year by year then averaged across all three years. No shares vest until the" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2013688981746000026) 2026-01-20T19:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Long time no write for me on the securitized auto loan trusts. But I couldnt help peeking when I saw that $GM Nissan and Mercedes-Benz dropped new trust-period data today just days after $F and Volkswagen. I opened just one deal GM Financial Auto Trust 2023-1 to see what goes this is what jumped out: Credit score still dominates: 21% delinquency for [---] vs 3.6% for [---] LTV matters a lot: 15% delinquent when LTV 120% vs 3% at 80% Long tenors hurts: [--] months has 9.5% delinquency vs 2.8% shorter terms Used cars: [--] riskier than new (13% vs 6%) Worst mix is exactly what youd expect: used car +" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2014046214975541469) 2026-01-21T18:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/ Just came back from Viola Ventures State of Fintech [----]. Super interesting evening will share more once the official notes are out next week. ๐" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2014458165899698296) 2026-01-22T22:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3/ Another super interesting panel member was the CEO of Duetti a startup that acquires songs from mid-market artists and turns their future cash flows into financial assets. Super original market. He talked very openly about how hard it was to get banks to fund them at the beginning. They mainly relied on private credit- first smaller funds (very expensive) then larger ones (still expensive) until they built enough of a track record. Once they managed to securitize the cash flows everything changed funding got easier cheaper and scalable. Another great example of how capital markets access" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2014458170568057071) 2026-01-22T22:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "4/ All in all it feels like fintech is re-awakening. Probably correlated with expectations of lower interest rates. Still it doesnt feel like previous cycles. Capital is opening up again but everything is more expensive more structured and still more disciplined" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2014458172862251518) 2026-01-22T22:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/ Last post on $FISV before the upcoming earnings on Feb [--]. I just finished going through the details of the numbers and honestly I like what I see. ๐งต" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015207463331549638) 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Lets start with the good. Gross margins are very strong hovering around 60% consistently over the last [--] years and meaningfully improved since [----]. This looks like classic scale advantage: selling more with only marginally more effort. Return on equity is another standout. ROE went from low single digits (2%+) to low teens today. This was driven largely by aggressive buybacks (no dividends). Personally I like this approach when capital allocation is done thoughtfully" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015207464975642883) 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "7/ So where does this leave me Theres a lot of work to do. But importantly the challenges are mostly self-inflicted not macro-driven beyond the usual risks. If execution is done right $FISV is a great business at a compelling price. At this point it comes down to whether you trust management to deliver. Do you https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207473607499814 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207473607499814" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015207473607499814) 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Another meaningful growth step for $AFRM. Filing for a bank charter will help with optimizing the business model it relies on: Cheaper deposits instead of Expensive funding via Direct origination instead of Fees to partner banks (e.g. Cross River Bank) Probably more things I'm not aware of. In addition a few days back BlackRock disclosed a 5%+ stake. No real short-term effect on the stock but it does say something about $AFRM s maturity. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015360726618050953 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015360726618050953" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015360726618050953) 2026-01-25T09:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I also think this signals $FISV s new management strength. Even while fixing in-house issues theyre clearly imagining what the future of payments looks like and actually acting on it. Great showcase. Wow. Not sure if this is more bullish for $FISV or $AFRM but its a big win for both. Fiserv and Affirm just teamed up to bring BNPL directly into debit cards at banks and credit unions. For Fiserv this pushes banks and credit unions back to the front line of lending letting Wow. Not sure if this is more bullish for $FISV or $AFRM but its a big win for both. Fiserv and Affirm just teamed up to" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015798179573170193) 2026-01-26T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/ Why would $FISV guarantee all the debt if its only a partial owner Probably in order to lower borrowing costs for these companies And maybe to enable them the funding at all Makes sense structurally but the downside risk sits with Fiserv" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011855643091587339) 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/ Just to clarify: this isnt direct loan exposure. $FISV doesnt hold auto loans or mortgages. But it is exposure to auto and housing cycles through software companies whose $487M of debt it guarantees. Worth knowing. Anyone familiar with defi Solutions or Sagent" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2011855645046423981) 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I really liked that during the earnings webcast of the financial reset at $FISV the CEO openly admitted that some short-term fee adjustments made over the past year just to hit revenue expectations will now be reversed. Thats not an easy thing to say on a public call. It shows real long-term thinking and understanding that sustainable growth only works if the customer is part of the equation. This kind of mindset usually wins over time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014016066616254681 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014016066616254681" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2014016066616254681) 2026-01-21T16:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "If it seemed a bit harsh please read the $Klarna's initial blog post just to get the right context https://zoozai.net/blogpostid=e7a2407c-796b-4359-8bb1-58aac940ed4f 1/ Just started re-reading $KLAR s new prospectus and a few lines in I was reminded what bugged me the first time: selective use of numbers. This time its closer to misleading. https://zoozai.net/blogpostid=e7a2407c-796b-4359-8bb1-58aac940ed4f 1/ Just started re-reading $KLAR s new prospectus and a few lines in I was reminded what bugged me the first time: selective use of numbers. This time its closer to misleading" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1958277477366976514) 2025-08-20T21:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$KLARNA measures its risk score model using Gini score. From the prospectus: "Gini score indicates the models discriminatory power namely the models effectiveness in differentiating between bad borrowers who will default in the future and good borrowers who will not default in the future." Great Explanation. Then comes this: " Our Gini score above was calculated for our Pay in [--] payment option (for the United States) and our Pay Later payment option (for Germany)." Ahmm. Why the cherry picking of different models for different geographies Would the comparison be less pretty if all data was" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1958636887947845710) 2025-08-21T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Every online lender loves to claim the same moat: proprietary data + ML underwriting. (Philosophical question: Does that mean they all have a moat or none of them does) Still the differences are striking. For Example: $Klarna 3M transactions per day from 111M active users $ENVA 65M transactions total across [--] years. Klarna does in weeks what Enova did in decades. But Im still waiting to see the delinquency rates & charge-offs of $ENVA because its not always about size. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959674762344735181 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959674762344735181" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1959674762344735181) 2025-08-24T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "It's a moat if you compare vs. new companies. It's not a moat vs. any of their current competitors. So if you don't think their model/analysis capabilities ( meaning their ability to loan more safely) has an advantage (I'm not saying it has) - why choose $UPST over $KLARNA or $AFRM or any other company https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1960092840949842248 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1960092840949842248" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1960092840949842248) 2025-08-25T21:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "It seems $KLARNA is looking for a $13B-$14B valuation half of $AFRM's value. Is the gap really about fundamentals (which are different no doubt just not as much) or just the U.S.-native premium investors are willing to pay" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1960423566484324417) 2025-08-26T19:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Continuing my dive into $HUT ๐ I was impressed with their latest balance sheet: $2.021B total assets $633M total liabilities $1.388B net asset value Thats a strong balance sheet. However digital assets (mostly $BTC) are a significant part. So is it risky Lets check" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/1968053471946674547) 2025-09-16T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just before the weekend Asher Genoot CEO of Hut [--] ( $HUT ) and a major owner of American Bitcoin Corp. ( $ABTC) disclosed a privately negotiated off-market deal to purchase 23.2M shares of $ABTC at $1.40 per share. Important nuance: These are Class B shares each convertible 1:1 into Class A but with different (and typically superior) voting rights. At the time of reporting (Jan 2) Class A was trading around $1.80 implying a 20% discount to market. So how to read this On one hand clear insider conviction On the other better shares bought privately at a meaningfully lower price than public" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2008187270868734219) 2026-01-05T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/ Now to what needs improvement. First- EPS growth has clearly slowed. The CEO addressed this last quarter saying the goal is to return to double-digit EPS growth around [----]. But what really caught my eye though was leverage. $FISV has always leaned on debt but debt-to-equity accelerated meaningfully since [----]. At first cash generation looked unaffected. Over the past year the impact is becoming visible- and its a key concern. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207466649178235 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207466649178235" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015207466649178235) 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/ The second major concern is customer relationships / service quality- largely a result of underinvestment. Listening to the CEO its clear this is the core motivation behind the One Fiserv plan" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015207468163367407) 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5/ I break underinvestment into two buckets. (1) Product underperformance Fixable but slow. Improving SLAs QA R&D standards and fighting silent organizational resistance takes [--] years and a lot of focus. Ive seen this done successfully. It often comes at the expense of new features but long term its worth it. AI can help a lot here if applied correctly. (2) Customer relations & service This is trickier. Some improvements are obvious: better documentation smarter case routing AI-assisted support (carefully bots can hurt if done wrong) But relationships are harder to rebuild" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015207470017458246) 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "6/ That said- $FISV products are hard to replace especially for large institutions. So if service quality improves fast enough dissatisfaction may fade before churn becomes attractive. The CEOs emphasis on One Fiserv in SMB is telling. SMBs are: more price-sensitive easier to lose than large institutions often lacking a dedicated human account manager When service breaks down here it hurts faster. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207471871103029 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207471871103029" [X Link](https://x.com/zoozai_invest/status/2015207471871103029) 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@zoozai_invest Shira ZevinShira Zevin posts on X about $fisv, business, $fi, ceo the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence stocks 63% finance 43% cryptocurrencies 6% automotive brands 5% technology brands 2% countries 2% formula 1 1%
Social topic influence $fisv 28%, business 17%, $fi 14%, ceo #3080, $upst #49, $syf 10%, $afrm 8%, in the 8%, fintech 7%, $lbzz 6%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @penguincapital7 @ndeprecive @mrbennychan @markledain @davidmarcus @stellarcat2 @investspecial @halviocapital @davegirouards @kakashiii111 @vibeship1 @mr_benny_chan
Top assets mentioned Fiserv Inc (FISV) Fiserv, Inc. (FI) Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Synchrony Financial (SYF) Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Klarna Group plc (KLAR) Carvana Co. (CVNA) Ape Now Think Later (KLARNA) Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC) CarMax, Inc (KMX) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Hut [--] Mining Corp. (HUT) Ally Financial, Inc. (ALLY) TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) WIX.com Ltd. (WIX)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Among all the chaos in financial markets Im fetching all public auto-loan ABS data- loan-by-loan monthly over the past year totaling 70M+ loans. Covers [--] major auto lenders and platforms. With names like $CVNA $KMX $ALLY Honda Toyota World Omni and more. The data is now loading and going through initial processing so its actually usable. This week should be full of insights. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018038062731931880 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018038062731931880"
X Link 2026-02-01T19:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Before $UPST earnings tomorrow: Would you rather: Trust an AI summary or skim [--] pages or ask a question and instantly see the source text Were building #3. Early access ๐"
X Link 2026-02-09T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"All the changes in $UPST personnel with details: CEO transition Paul Gu (Co-founder) appointed CEO effective May [--] [----] Base salary: $540k Target bonus: 100% Equity: $37M PRSUs Dave Girouard steps down as CEO: Becomes Executive Chairman w/ base salary reduced to $15k remains on the Board President & Chief Capital Officer Sanjay Datta appointed President & Chief Capital Officer (effective immediately) Base salary: $485k Target bonus: 100% Equity: $7.5M PRSUs (same performance framework as CEO) CFO transition Andrea Blankmeyer appointed CFO effective March [--] [----] Datta remains CFO until then"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"๐จWhy $FISV looks less like a broken business and more like a great infrastructure company paying the price for years of short-term optimization and underinvestment. I just published a new blog post diving deep into whats actually going on under the hood business mix margins culture reset balance-sheet risks and why the problems are mostly self-inflicted not structural. IMO a must-read ahead of $FISV earnings in two weeks and one of the more interesting opportunities out there right now. Link in comments๐ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015748016024518897"
X Link 2026-01-26T11:25Z [---] followers, 31.4K engagements
"Wow. Not sure if this is more bullish for $FISV or $AFRM but its a big win for both. Fiserv and Affirm just teamed up to bring BNPL directly into debit cards at banks and credit unions. For Fiserv this pushes banks and credit unions back to the front line of lending letting them offer BNPL without building new credit products or losing users to third-party apps. For Affirm its a massive distribution unlock: instant access to Fiservs huge FI client base and everyday debit spend way more top-of-wallet traffic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015783812660134000"
X Link 2026-01-26T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Today Synchrony ( $SYF ) reports earnings before the open. This could genuinely be one of the more interesting opportunities out there. But since the announcement by Donald Trump about a potential 10% cap on credit-card interest for a year the risk feels too high for me right now. I dont think such a cap in the way its currently suggested is reasonable and Im skeptical it will actually be implemented. Still predicting the behavior of the current U.S. president isnt something Im comfortable betting on. So for now Im staying on the sidelines. Ill be watching the results closely though"
X Link 2026-01-27T10:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PenguinCapital7 All there's to know on the state of these auto loans in the past year (interest charge-offs delinquencies grace collateralization % and many more) . I am preparing a list of business questions that interest me - but if anyone has anything in particular - drop it below"
X Link 2026-02-01T20:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Post [--] of [--] ๐งต Wow. I didnt expect the loan-by-loan dataset to feel this overwhelming. Not because of the size (though its big and I now realize I need to go [--] years back for anything truly meaningful). Its the possibilities. There are so many dimensions here that its not obvious where the story even begins. Youve got: + Captive lenders (Honda Toyota Mercedes) where the car is the product the loan is a means to sell it + Non-captives where the loan is the product + Prime vs non-prime + Different origination years + Brands behaving very differently from each other So I decided to KISS. I"
X Link 2026-02-02T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@mr_Benny_Chan Thanks for the insight. You're right to call the fact that $KMX also securitizes from previous years usually [--] year back is the most dominant"
X Link 2026-02-03T11:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@mark_ledain Just treat it as opportunity at least regarding $FISV"
X Link 2026-02-04T10:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So whos the automaker with 60% of non-prime loans below a [---] FICO while most captives have essentially zero Ford ( $F ). This likely reflects Fords much broader mass-market in the U.S. which naturally pulls in a wider credit spectrum. Next to Ford Honda is the only other captive with meaningful exposure at 20% of non-prime loans below [---]. By contrast Toyota Mercedes-Benz Hyundai and BMW effectively wont sell to that part of the credit spectrum at all. Continuing the analysis Im now moving from non-captive lenders to captive auto loans- loans originated by the auto manufacturers themselves."
X Link 2026-02-04T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Could you have spotted the shift @davidmarcus describes just by reading $PYPL 's earnings releases I pulled [--] versions of the same Business Overview section from PayPal reports over the years (201520202025) You can clearly spot language change. From customer-first to mission-led to fully abstract technical framing. But this is totally subjective (even if obvious). Which is exactly why I rely on embedding and tracking key signals over time when analyzing filings to catch under-the-radar shifts before they become obvious in the numbers. A few thoughts about PayPal nearly [--] years after I left."
X Link 2026-02-05T17:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"With $FISV earnings coming up early next week this is a good moment to revisit my take on the business ๐จWhy $FISV looks less like a broken business and more like a great infrastructure company paying the price for years of short-term optimization and underinvestment. I just published a new blog post diving deep into whats actually going on under the hood business mix margins ๐จWhy $FISV looks less like a broken business and more like a great infrastructure company paying the price for years of short-term optimization and underinvestment. I just published a new blog post diving deep into"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$UPST earnings are coming this week and I know a lot of people will be digging through the numbers once the report is out. Im opening a small private MVP that I built to help with exactly that- asking concrete questions and getting answers straight from the 10-K / 10-Q with the exact source attached every time. This is a free early-stage product very much an MVP and Ill only be able to open it to a small group (around [----] users) due to compute limits. Its built for investors who care about primary sources and want to validate things themselves. Theres a short demo below showing the"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:21Z [---] followers, 10.7K engagements
"Continuing the analysis Im now moving from non-captive lenders to captive auto loans- loans originated by the auto manufacturers themselves. In the dataset this includes Ford Honda Hyundai Nissan Toyota BMW and Volkswagen spanning everything from mass-market to luxury. Before even getting into borrower mix the data makes one thing very clear: because the car is the product and the loan is primarily a sales enabler APRs are mostly in the mid-single digits pools are overwhelmingly prime and across most parameters there is far less fluctuation over time compared to non-captives. Against that"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Post [--] of [--] Another super interesting dimension emerged once I stopped looking only at borrower characteristics and asked a different question: What do these companies actually bundle and how quickly do they sell originated loans At one extreme sits $CVNA. Its trusts are composed almost entirely of loans originated in the same year. Which could mean: it keeps essentially no loans on the balance sheet or loans it cant sell quickly are simply unsellable even years later. On the other end of the spectrum sits $ALLY especially in non-prime segment. Here loans entering a trust can be [--] years old"
X Link 2026-02-02T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$FISV just released full-year results. As Ive said before- no broken business case here. Management was razor-sharp on the call. They explicitly said no negative surprises since the last update. In fact some positives emerged. They were also very clear: meaningful improvement (One Fiserv) takes work and they expect progress to show closer to end of H1 [----]. The Financial segment is clearly where most of the pain sits. Since [----] Fiserv has been modernizing the solution. Prior management pushed forced upgrades which drove client attrition. Thats no longer the approach. Other notable points:"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Super interesting IPO coming up- Clear Street. Never heard of them before but once I started reading the prospectus it actually sounds very interesting. Why Fintech. Already profitable. Nice margins. Fast growth. And a business thats quite easy to understand-capital markets infrastructure. Itll take time to read through the entire prospectus and an IPO filing deserves that attention. Until then a few numbers / facts: 3.8% of total U.S. equity clearing volume goes through the platform Revenue driven mainly by net financing spreads + transactions Their platform unifies trading & execution risk"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$UPST That CEO transition in full force"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"5/ Contrast with $CACC 's reported risk: Their immigration risk comes from employees not customers. Reliance on foreign engineers under H-1B visas means visa restrictions could raise costs or slow operations"
X Link 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"6/ So: $LBZZ immigration affects the borrowers $CACC immigration affects the talent Same sector very different exposures"
X Link 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"7/ ๐ก Have you ever thought about how policy changes like immigration enforcement could ripple into fintech and lending Its not obvious but for companies like $LBZZ its real and something investors should consider"
X Link 2025-09-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks. I was not aware of perspective on lien perfection + franchised dealers . Id just add: while $LBZZ does mention negative publicity around undocumented immigrants the broader risk isnt only about them. A big part of their customer base is legal immigrants with thin / invisible credit files (the exact problem LendBuzz was founded to solve). So shifts in legal immigration patterns or policy can also affect their core audience. That said I agree with you that the overall risk is probably limited. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1972665551655739878"
X Link 2025-09-29T14:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I was waiting to see what Lendbuzz ( $LBZZ ) IPO would price at. Now with First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies Im starting to wonder if it happens at all. If it does maybe well actually see a reasonably priced IPO. Hope so"
X Link 2025-10-04T17:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"BTW I don't think you can compare a non auto loan-like $UPST- to $LBZZ. Since the biggest potential for trouble in auto loans is the misalignment in interest between the dealer and the loan originator. Other than $CACC which has a business model that aligns it by default it's a major issue which consumer loans originators don's suffer from. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1974969069419000162 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1974969069419000162"
X Link 2025-10-05T22:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Crazy: looked up funds holding Tricolor Auto Securitization notes most showed yields around 6% (). Think about that: they were taking subprime auto risk for near Fed-rate returns while Tricolors borrowers were likely paying high double-digit APRs. Sure defaults are brutal but the gap is still wild. The only real winners The originators & servicers skimming fees the only sure cash flow in this whole chain. In the picture some of the trusts holding $tricolor's junk: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976380445521575961 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976380445521575961"
X Link 2025-10-09T20:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@stellarcat2 Good Catch. Raising no-FICO in Prime trusts is even more severe. Looks like they started extending loans to a new cohort with less or no credit history. $LBZZ business is all about that. I do wonder if $CVNA is doing it carefully though"
X Link 2025-10-25T23:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@InvestSpecial @HalvioCapital Great thread thanks Regarding $MCCK with the CEO holding 75% and already showing a willingness to use company cash for commodity trading isnt there a risk he could take other actions that arent necessarily optimal for minority shareholders"
X Link 2025-11-30T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I want to talk today about an undiscussed point related to some of the fintech lenders weve talked about before like $UPST $AFRM $KLAR and others. Did you ever stop to think about the consequences of having a huge dataset of loans their model-predicted outcomes and actual outcomes but no data at all on the loans that were not approved In data science terms the entire negative side is missing. Were completely blind there. And why would we care exactly After all we only care about loans we actually extended. We cant lose money on loans we didnt make right Id argue we do care and that this can"
X Link 2025-12-16T21:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"So after I was lucky enough to get @davegirouards detailed reply on how $UPST handles biased-data risk I was honestly relieved to hear how much effort goes into minimizing it (and frankly a bit troubled that Ive never come across a comparable discussion when reading $KLAR s reports for example). So as investors what can we take from this Most importantly: Not all datasets are born the same. It depends who made them. Millions of loans sounds impressive but data in AI lending isnt neutral. Its shaped by decisions made by management research teams approval policies and exploration frameworks."
X Link 2025-12-17T15:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"โMore thoughts from a long flight with a printed copy of Upstart's latest report: In their latest quarterly earnings $UPST disclosed something new last quarter: for the first time they quantified how much of their balance-sheet loans are held for R&D / model development. The number is striking: 71%. On a $1.23B balance sheet thats roughly $873M () in loans intentionally retained for experimentation. I tried looking back a few quarters this split wasnt disclosed before. Conceptually I dont mind this at all. In fact Id rather see a much high % here as it would mean loans sit on the balance"
X Link 2025-12-19T08:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"So what does $SYF actually do and why is it interesting Synchrony Financial is a credit card company that partners with some of the biggest retailers in the U.S. Think $AMZN Lowes $PYPL $TJX Sams Club Verizon and many more. Its core business is issuing: Private-label credit cards (store cards) Co-branded / general-purpose cards Most of these partnerships are multi-year and exclusive which makes the business relatively stable and sticky. Retailers dont switch issuers lightly. That said revenue still comes largely from interest on loans so results are naturally exposed to: -Consumer health"
X Link 2026-01-06T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"๐๐ Stopping the cold analysis of $SYF I had to ask myself: Why doesnt reading its reports excite me the way other companies do This is on paper a classic Warren Buffettstyle stock (he even held it in the past): Established profitable truly fintech deeply embedded in U.S. consumer spending. Something I should get excited about. And then it clicked. Whats missing at least in the reports is the tech story. Sure $SYF mentions: ML for marketing Models for credit approval Some real-time decisioning. But the language is strikingly non-technical. Even a simple search for AI turns up almost nothing."
X Link 2026-01-06T19:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$WIX As an R&D employee whenever a company forces a return to [--] days in the office it just sounds like desperation. Teams were working [--] days a week so that extra day is suddenly going to make them move faster Or is it just giving stressed management a short-term feeling of control I do wonder in light of the recent pricing spikes in $WIX products does this come from the same stressed feeling https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008894028679372822 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008894028679372822"
X Link 2026-01-07T13:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"While reading $SYF reports and comparing them to other companies I couldnt stop wondering why retail investors seem to prefer $KLAR / $UPST-style neo-financing. Fundamentals often point the other way: old-school lenders usually fund cheaper they pay less in processing fees theyve been through cycles and know how to price risk And yet the preference is clear. Growth or potential growth is simply more attractive with the hope that fundamentals will follow years down the line. Personally Im starting to see quite a few attractive companies that are less reliant on AI/ML/models (pick the buzzword)"
X Link 2026-01-07T20:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NDeprecive for which company"
X Link 2026-01-08T10:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"As expected Vanguard reported yesterday that it owns 12% of $CVNA shares. Vanguard had to mechanically buy those shares after the stock was added to the S&P [---]. Thats 29M shares or roughly [--] trading days of average volume absorbed by forced passive demand. No wonder the price ended up where we see it today. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009215081381331158 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009215081381331158"
X Link 2026-01-08T10:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I just came across the perfect example to showcase the tech differences between neo-fintechs and old-fashion lenders. In its latest quarterly report $SYF quietly updated how it calculates provisions for credit losses. Until recently losses were estimated using relatively simple pooled techniques think transition tables and historical averages. Now $SYF is moving to account-level modeling explicitly estimating probability of default and exposure at default incorporating macro variables like unemployment and reassessing assumptions quarterly. Thats a real upgrade much more granular &"
X Link 2026-01-08T16:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I came across $FISV this week while reading $SYF reports. It was mentioned as the provider that they use to produce cards statements and other mailings to the deposit customers of Synchrony. I googled them and was shocked to discover one of the strongest financial infrastructure companies trading at what seems on the surface a deep discount. This is a $37B market-cap company and the price levels we currently see are similar to [----]. Is this a meaningful discount or a failing giant Will discover that. With less than a month away until next earnings this is the company Ill survey next week"
X Link 2026-01-09T08:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"What I learnt from browsing Synchronys ( $SYF ) career site this week: [----] of their [-----] employees are based in the Philippines. Most open roles are outside the US. They seem to be only now building the infrastructure to measure Gen-AI. This suggests its mostly been used for internal / non-production use so far not as a core product layer. The analytics org is huge. They even run analytics for their merchant partners optimizing benefits campaigns approvals etc. But the analytics stack looks very old-school corporate: strong statistics serious work but SAS / SQL / Excel rather than modern ML"
X Link 2026-01-10T19:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"๐จFunny that while Im deep into analyzing $SYF Trump announces his suggestion for a 10% one-year cap on credit card interest rates. This of course makes all current analysis results irrelevant unfortunately I genuinely cant understand how were supposed to make well-informed decisions in an environment like this. I was surprised however to find that this is not a new idea. Last year Sen. Sanders (S.381) proposed a 10% cap on credit card APR not just for one year but through [----] So yeah- lesson learned. When I went through the risk factors I was looking at charge-offs funding consumer behavior"
X Link 2026-01-10T23:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This chart actually shows that we do have a problem with credit-card interest rates. Were now close to 21% APR which is higher than in the mid-1990s even though the Fed rate back then wasnt that different from today. So something clearly shifted. But a 10% cap Where does that number even come from What economic model says thats viable https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010299668706505095 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010299668706505095"
X Link 2026-01-11T10:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Trumps 10% credit-card interest cap is already hitting pre-market. $SYF $BFH $COF all indicated -7.7% to -9% before the open"
X Link 2026-01-12T09:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As I mentioned regarding the 10% interest cap seems like BNPL companies like $UPST $KLAR $AFRM taking hit just like CC companies. Not sure what will actually happen with the 10% cap thingy But it got me thinking - I keep seeing the take that BNPL will massively benefit from Trumps idea to cap credit-card APRs at 10%. I agree in the short term. But I think the second-order effect is being missed. If CCs Not sure what will actually happen with the 10% cap thingy But it got me thinking - I keep seeing the take that BNPL will massively benefit from Trumps idea to cap credit-card APRs at 10%. I"
X Link 2026-01-12T19:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Started this week with Fiserv ( $FISV). The stock is down 58% in the past [--] months. New CEO. Other execs replaced. Guidance slashed. And the launch of the One Fiserv plan with five strategic pillars: Client-first mindset to win enterprise clients and grow ARPU Build the small-business OS via Clover Differentiated platforms in finance & commerce (embedded finance stablecoin etc.) Operational excellence powered by AI Disciplined capital allocation So yeah trouble at home. And yet this is one of the strongest financial infrastructure companies out there. Deeply embedded products S&P [---] member"
X Link 2026-01-12T20:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Funny how Synchrony ( $SYF ) and Fiserv ( $FISV ) the two Im writing about this week just dropped a meaningful cooperation: Synchrony expanded CareCredits full financing integration on Fiservs Clover devices enabling providers to process the entire patient financing journey (from application to payment) right at the point of sale on Clover. This effectively embeds Synchronys card financing into Fiservs merchant ecosystem and scales to 40000+ health & wellness providers who use Clover hardware. This is exactly the type of payments solution that BNPL will never be able to replace as we know it"
X Link 2026-01-12T21:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@NDeprecive yeah saw it. honestly I dont read too much into it I cant do anything intelligent with a picture. I try to ignore noise that I cant actually think with"
X Link 2026-01-12T21:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@kakashiii111 Great breakdown. This is not a sustainable "growth" for how long more can they extend these arrangements until numbers force them to stop"
X Link 2026-01-13T08:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ OK just started diving into Fiserv ( $FISV ) numbers and the first point to hit me was a 47% $37.5B of assets are Goodwill. Meaning were dealing with a massive merger case. Basically nearly half the companys "value" is just the premium they paid for old acquisitions. ๐งต"
X Link 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ Then I went to read the M&As done just in the first [--] months of [----] and got this nice list: Payfare (Canada): $95M CCV Group (Netherlands): $226M Pinch Money Money CardFree & SCG: $76M total StoneCastle & TD Bank portfolio: Just signed for another $460M. They are definitely keeping the shopping spree alive. ๐ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011155163071820018 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011155163071820018"
X Link 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ OK mergers are a fair way to grow. But this growth should at least reflect in free cash flow or revenue. What do we see there Here is the catch. Even with all these new buys the cash flow is actually shrinking. Year-to-date operating cash flow is $4.12B down from $4.41B last year. They are spending millions to buy companies but the effect is minimal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011155165714534891 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011155165714534891"
X Link 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ Why is the cash flow stuck It looks like theyre in a "treadmill" situation. They have to dump more money into CapEx an extra $300M a year just to fix their old tech and keep up with faster rivals. So even when they buy a new company the costs of keeping the old ship floating are eating the gains"
X Link 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/ This is where the write-down risk gets real. When 47% of your assets are Goodwill youre basically telling auditors "trust us these deals were worth it." But management just slashed growth expectations for the year. When you cut your outlook that hard the auditors might start asking: "Is that $37B of goodwill actually worth $37B""
X Link 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ We already saw a $570M impairment recently and that might just be the appetizer. If the One Fiserv plan doesn't jumpstart that flat cash flow soon theyll be forced to admit they overpaid. A massive accounting charge wouldn't be a surprise at this point"
X Link 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"7/ Bottom line $FISV has an asset-heavy balance sheet but those assets are primarily tied to historical acquisition premiums rather than tangible equipment or cash. Until things start to look better that 47% goodwill ratio remains a significant valuation risk for the stock"
X Link 2026-01-13T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Let's dive into the heart of $FISV business. To understand where the company is headed we have to look at the revenue mix the shifting margins and the "cultural fix" currently underway. Let's break down the two core segments. ๐"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Merchant Solutions: This is the "front-end" of the business. Its all about helping businesses accept payments. It includes: Point-of-Sale (POS) hardware (like Clover) merchant acquiring and ecommerce integration. Its the high-growth engine of the company"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ Financial Technology: This is the back-end part. Whats inside: Core banking ledgers debit/credit processing and digital banking software. These are long-term sticky contracts with banks credit card companies and credit unions. Its the steady foundation"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4/ On the top line these segments look fairly balanced distributing revenue roughly 50-50. The Merchant segment has maintained a slight advantage showing stronger growth over the past three years. However when looking at operating margins the two segments start to grow apart. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011545303304860035 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011545303304860035"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ Financial Segment: These margins are solid at 4546%. Its a high-margin software-heavy business. Very stable very predictable. Merchant Segment: Margins have climbed from 30% to 35% in [--] years. While lower than Financial (due to hardware costs like Clover POS devices) the expansion is impressive. But how are they doing it"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"6/ Let's look under the hood of Merchant revenue: Small Businesses (SMBs) make up a whopping 67%. Enterprises & processing make up the rest. The margin expansion is likely coming from SMBs. Revenue is outpacing expenses possibly due to Clover price hikes or underinvestment in service. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011545307343990906 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011545307343990906"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"7/ For a small business a broken POS really hurts; it's a lost day of sales. Because Clover contracts often bind users for [--] years we might be seeing a delayed effect. Low customer service and product friction today dont affect numbers until tomorrow"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"8/ In contrast the Financial Segment is evenly split between Digital Payments Issuing and Banking. These are enterprise-level software products. They are incredibly hard to replace giving $FISV a massive moat even if the Merchant side gets rocky"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"9/ I heard some of the latest earnings call the CEO sounds impressively detail-oriented. He admitted that recent friction is "self-inflicted" and fixable. I believe him. However cultural change in those big companies is hard. True change requires more than new CxOs. It requires winning over middle management and ICs who are used to the status quo"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"10/ I will keep reading but so far things look solid for $FISV. It seems the recent expectation resets were mainly (but not exclusively) due to an over-optimization of the future pushing for growth and margins that weren't sustainable without reinvestment"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ While reading the small print on $FISV earnings I came across something I wasnt aware of before. Fiserv has $480M exposure related to auto and housing but its easy to miss when you look only at the balance sheet. Lets break it down ๐"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ The exposure comes through two companies $FISV partially owns: defi solutions - software for loan & lease origination and servicing mainly for auto and consumer finance. Sagent software for mortgage origination and servicing used by banks and lenders"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Heres the key point: These companies have roughly $480M of debt and $FISV guarantees the entire amount even though it owns only part of them. That guarantee is an off-balance-sheet exposure. It doesnt show up as debt at $FISV but if these companies cant pay Fiserv does. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011855639216058576 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011855639216058576"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ What does show up on $FISVs balance sheet An equity-method investment of $94M A recorded guarantee liability of just $14M So on the surface the balance sheet impact looks small compared to the $487M exposure"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"After breaking down the $487M off-balance-sheet debt exposure $FISV has through guarantees provided to defi SOLUTIONS and Sagent ๐ I wanted to focus on the business side of this partial ownership. Looking at their product portfolios defi and Sagent look like a very natural fit for Fiserv. They both solve a similar problem: loan life-cycle software infrastructure. But they do so in adjacent markets: auto and mortgage. I wouldnt be surprised if once the numbers stabilize Fiserv eventually moves to fully consolidate these businesses. All in all this looks like a thoughtful strategic investment"
X Link 2026-01-16T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Operational Effectiveness. We believe we can further improve the quality of our client delivery while reducing our costs by using the opportunities created by our size and scale. This line is from $FISV s Feb [--] [----] annual report. The more reports I read the more I resonate with Warren Buffetts saying: turn every page. Hints about the real state of the business are usually there. Picking them up just requires thoroughness. No doubt a "multiyear transformation initiative focused on operational excellence enabled by artificial intelligence" was introduced a couple of months ago."
X Link 2026-01-19T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"๐งต $FISV Holiday Shopping Report 1/ Im reading the Holiday Shopping report $FISV recently published. Big picture: Things are softer but this does not look like a real consumer pullback. Consumers were more selective timing purchases around key events sales. There were also fewer trips but higher tickets that resulted in a total -0.8% less sales. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649730857767422 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649730857767422"
X Link 2026-01-20T16:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Diving deeper two things stood out: [--]. Channel mix Same-store eCommerce sales were up +6.4% YoY while brick-and-mortar declined -1.7%. Even though eCommerce is only 11% of total retail sales it delivered almost all incremental growth. Physical stores were critical for immediacy and last-minute shopping but when it comes to growth its clearly happening online. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649733747642866 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649733747642866"
X Link 2026-01-20T16:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ Second and more interesting takeaway: Credit vs Debit Theres a continued drift toward credit over debit. Credit transactions carried 70% higher average tickets than debit. This tells us consumers are protecting liquidity and using credit for larger curated purchases Spending is very controlled. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649738122301670 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649738122301670"
X Link 2026-01-20T16:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4/ From a $FISV perspective this matters. Fiserv makes more money on credit than debit so in the short run this mix shift is actually supportive for revenue quality and margins"
X Link 2026-01-20T16:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/ But zooming out This is also what the average consumer has felt for a while: Things are tighter. Spending is deliberate. Credit is being used as a buffer. So the signal is mixed: Short term- better mix for processors Longer term- a reminder that consumer pressure hasnt gone away its just being managed. More as I keep digging. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649742278840466 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013649742278840466"
X Link 2026-01-20T16:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Just saw that a few days ago $AFRM s CEO got a new equity package (RSUs + PSUs) and its actually worth looking at the details๐ Max Levchin received 334k PSUs on top of RSUs. The PSUs run over a full 3-year period and can pay out anywhere between 0% and 200%. Miss the threshold - you get [--] Hit target - 100% Outperform - up to 200% The performance conditions are the same ones set for other execs back in September: Revenue less transaction costs growth (50%) Adjusted operating income growth (50%) Performance is measured year by year then averaged across all three years. No shares vest until the"
X Link 2026-01-20T19:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Long time no write for me on the securitized auto loan trusts. But I couldnt help peeking when I saw that $GM Nissan and Mercedes-Benz dropped new trust-period data today just days after $F and Volkswagen. I opened just one deal GM Financial Auto Trust 2023-1 to see what goes this is what jumped out: Credit score still dominates: 21% delinquency for [---] vs 3.6% for [---] LTV matters a lot: 15% delinquent when LTV 120% vs 3% at 80% Long tenors hurts: [--] months has 9.5% delinquency vs 2.8% shorter terms Used cars: [--] riskier than new (13% vs 6%) Worst mix is exactly what youd expect: used car +"
X Link 2026-01-21T18:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ Just came back from Viola Ventures State of Fintech [----]. Super interesting evening will share more once the official notes are out next week. ๐"
X Link 2026-01-22T22:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ Another super interesting panel member was the CEO of Duetti a startup that acquires songs from mid-market artists and turns their future cash flows into financial assets. Super original market. He talked very openly about how hard it was to get banks to fund them at the beginning. They mainly relied on private credit- first smaller funds (very expensive) then larger ones (still expensive) until they built enough of a track record. Once they managed to securitize the cash flows everything changed funding got easier cheaper and scalable. Another great example of how capital markets access"
X Link 2026-01-22T22:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4/ All in all it feels like fintech is re-awakening. Probably correlated with expectations of lower interest rates. Still it doesnt feel like previous cycles. Capital is opening up again but everything is more expensive more structured and still more disciplined"
X Link 2026-01-22T22:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ Last post on $FISV before the upcoming earnings on Feb [--]. I just finished going through the details of the numbers and honestly I like what I see. ๐งต"
X Link 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Lets start with the good. Gross margins are very strong hovering around 60% consistently over the last [--] years and meaningfully improved since [----]. This looks like classic scale advantage: selling more with only marginally more effort. Return on equity is another standout. ROE went from low single digits (2%+) to low teens today. This was driven largely by aggressive buybacks (no dividends). Personally I like this approach when capital allocation is done thoughtfully"
X Link 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"7/ So where does this leave me Theres a lot of work to do. But importantly the challenges are mostly self-inflicted not macro-driven beyond the usual risks. If execution is done right $FISV is a great business at a compelling price. At this point it comes down to whether you trust management to deliver. Do you https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207473607499814 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207473607499814"
X Link 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Another meaningful growth step for $AFRM. Filing for a bank charter will help with optimizing the business model it relies on: Cheaper deposits instead of Expensive funding via Direct origination instead of Fees to partner banks (e.g. Cross River Bank) Probably more things I'm not aware of. In addition a few days back BlackRock disclosed a 5%+ stake. No real short-term effect on the stock but it does say something about $AFRM s maturity. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015360726618050953 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015360726618050953"
X Link 2026-01-25T09:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I also think this signals $FISV s new management strength. Even while fixing in-house issues theyre clearly imagining what the future of payments looks like and actually acting on it. Great showcase. Wow. Not sure if this is more bullish for $FISV or $AFRM but its a big win for both. Fiserv and Affirm just teamed up to bring BNPL directly into debit cards at banks and credit unions. For Fiserv this pushes banks and credit unions back to the front line of lending letting Wow. Not sure if this is more bullish for $FISV or $AFRM but its a big win for both. Fiserv and Affirm just teamed up to"
X Link 2026-01-26T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/ Why would $FISV guarantee all the debt if its only a partial owner Probably in order to lower borrowing costs for these companies And maybe to enable them the funding at all Makes sense structurally but the downside risk sits with Fiserv"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ Just to clarify: this isnt direct loan exposure. $FISV doesnt hold auto loans or mortgages. But it is exposure to auto and housing cycles through software companies whose $487M of debt it guarantees. Worth knowing. Anyone familiar with defi Solutions or Sagent"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I really liked that during the earnings webcast of the financial reset at $FISV the CEO openly admitted that some short-term fee adjustments made over the past year just to hit revenue expectations will now be reversed. Thats not an easy thing to say on a public call. It shows real long-term thinking and understanding that sustainable growth only works if the customer is part of the equation. This kind of mindset usually wins over time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014016066616254681 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014016066616254681"
X Link 2026-01-21T16:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If it seemed a bit harsh please read the $Klarna's initial blog post just to get the right context https://zoozai.net/blogpostid=e7a2407c-796b-4359-8bb1-58aac940ed4f 1/ Just started re-reading $KLAR s new prospectus and a few lines in I was reminded what bugged me the first time: selective use of numbers. This time its closer to misleading. https://zoozai.net/blogpostid=e7a2407c-796b-4359-8bb1-58aac940ed4f 1/ Just started re-reading $KLAR s new prospectus and a few lines in I was reminded what bugged me the first time: selective use of numbers. This time its closer to misleading"
X Link 2025-08-20T21:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$KLARNA measures its risk score model using Gini score. From the prospectus: "Gini score indicates the models discriminatory power namely the models effectiveness in differentiating between bad borrowers who will default in the future and good borrowers who will not default in the future." Great Explanation. Then comes this: " Our Gini score above was calculated for our Pay in [--] payment option (for the United States) and our Pay Later payment option (for Germany)." Ahmm. Why the cherry picking of different models for different geographies Would the comparison be less pretty if all data was"
X Link 2025-08-21T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Every online lender loves to claim the same moat: proprietary data + ML underwriting. (Philosophical question: Does that mean they all have a moat or none of them does) Still the differences are striking. For Example: $Klarna 3M transactions per day from 111M active users $ENVA 65M transactions total across [--] years. Klarna does in weeks what Enova did in decades. But Im still waiting to see the delinquency rates & charge-offs of $ENVA because its not always about size. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959674762344735181 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959674762344735181"
X Link 2025-08-24T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It's a moat if you compare vs. new companies. It's not a moat vs. any of their current competitors. So if you don't think their model/analysis capabilities ( meaning their ability to loan more safely) has an advantage (I'm not saying it has) - why choose $UPST over $KLARNA or $AFRM or any other company https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1960092840949842248 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1960092840949842248"
X Link 2025-08-25T21:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It seems $KLARNA is looking for a $13B-$14B valuation half of $AFRM's value. Is the gap really about fundamentals (which are different no doubt just not as much) or just the U.S.-native premium investors are willing to pay"
X Link 2025-08-26T19:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Continuing my dive into $HUT ๐ I was impressed with their latest balance sheet: $2.021B total assets $633M total liabilities $1.388B net asset value Thats a strong balance sheet. However digital assets (mostly $BTC) are a significant part. So is it risky Lets check"
X Link 2025-09-16T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just before the weekend Asher Genoot CEO of Hut [--] ( $HUT ) and a major owner of American Bitcoin Corp. ( $ABTC) disclosed a privately negotiated off-market deal to purchase 23.2M shares of $ABTC at $1.40 per share. Important nuance: These are Class B shares each convertible 1:1 into Class A but with different (and typically superior) voting rights. At the time of reporting (Jan 2) Class A was trading around $1.80 implying a 20% discount to market. So how to read this On one hand clear insider conviction On the other better shares bought privately at a meaningfully lower price than public"
X Link 2026-01-05T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Now to what needs improvement. First- EPS growth has clearly slowed. The CEO addressed this last quarter saying the goal is to return to double-digit EPS growth around [----]. But what really caught my eye though was leverage. $FISV has always leaned on debt but debt-to-equity accelerated meaningfully since [----]. At first cash generation looked unaffected. Over the past year the impact is becoming visible- and its a key concern. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207466649178235 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207466649178235"
X Link 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ The second major concern is customer relationships / service quality- largely a result of underinvestment. Listening to the CEO its clear this is the core motivation behind the One Fiserv plan"
X Link 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ I break underinvestment into two buckets. (1) Product underperformance Fixable but slow. Improving SLAs QA R&D standards and fighting silent organizational resistance takes [--] years and a lot of focus. Ive seen this done successfully. It often comes at the expense of new features but long term its worth it. AI can help a lot here if applied correctly. (2) Customer relations & service This is trickier. Some improvements are obvious: better documentation smarter case routing AI-assisted support (carefully bots can hurt if done wrong) But relationships are harder to rebuild"
X Link 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"6/ That said- $FISV products are hard to replace especially for large institutions. So if service quality improves fast enough dissatisfaction may fade before churn becomes attractive. The CEOs emphasis on One Fiserv in SMB is telling. SMBs are: more price-sensitive easier to lose than large institutions often lacking a dedicated human account manager When service breaks down here it hurts faster. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207471871103029 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015207471871103029"
X Link 2026-01-24T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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