# ![@steelbridgecap Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1549548450953342977.png) @steelbridgecap Gavin Campbell

Gavin Campbell posts on X about rates, mortgage rate, ai, inflation the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1549548450953342977/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1549548450953342977/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +466%
- [--] Month [-----] +45%
- [--] Months [-----] -56%
- [--] Year [------] -62%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1549548450953342977/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1549548450953342977/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] -45%
- [--] Months [--] -20%
- [--] Year [---] -7.20%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1549548450953342977/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1549548450953342977/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] no change
- [--] Month [---] -1.80%
- [--] Months [---] -2.20%
- [--] Year [---] +33%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1549548450953342977/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1549548450953342977/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  56% [stocks](/list/stocks)  30% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  4% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  4% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  1% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  1%

**Social topic influence**
[rates](/topic/rates) 11%, [mortgage rate](/topic/mortgage-rate) 9%, [ai](/topic/ai) 9%, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #1959, [reit](/topic/reit) 6%, [debt](/topic/debt) 4%, [housing market](/topic/housing-market) #328, [in the](/topic/in-the) 4%, [fed](/topic/fed) 4%, [apt](/topic/apt) 4%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@jpmorgan](/creator/undefined) [@msciinc](/creator/undefined) [@apolloglobal](/creator/undefined) [@treppwire](/creator/undefined) [@cbre](/creator/undefined) [@jayparsons](/creator/undefined) [@mrneutralman](/creator/undefined) [@avisonyoung](/creator/undefined) [@costar](/creator/undefined) [@newmark](/creator/undefined) [@jll](/creator/undefined) [@tomkeene](/creator/undefined) [@ferrotv](/creator/undefined) [@moodys](/creator/undefined) [@yardi](/creator/undefined) [@realpage](/creator/undefined) [@mmreis](/creator/undefined) [@firstamstuart](/creator/undefined) [@otter401](/creator/undefined) [@goodguyguaranty](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Blackstone, Inc. (BX)](/topic/$bx) [Cousins Properties Inc. (CUZ)](/topic/$cuz) [Veno Finance (VNO)](/topic/$vno) [Invitation Homes, Inc. (INVH)](/topic/$invh) [SafeCoin (SAFE)](/topic/$safe) [Somnium Space CUBEs (CUBE)](/topic/$cube) [Public Storage (PSA)](/topic/$psa) [Procore Technologies, Inc. (PCOR)](/topic/$pcor) [AppFolio, Inc. Class A (APPF)](/topic/$appf) [CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP)](/topic/$csgp) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Colliers International Group Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares (CIGI)](/topic/$cigi) [Cushman & Wakefield plc Ordinary Shares (CWK)](/topic/$cwk) [Jones Lang LaSalle, Inc. (JLL)](/topic/$jll) [CBRE Group Inc (CBRE)](/topic/$cbre) [Allstate Corp (ALL)](/topic/allstate) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW) (BXMT)](/topic/$bxmt) [Autonomous Virtual Beings (AVB)](/topic/$avb)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Good insights from @TreppWire on debt yields on leasehold vs fee properties. Big premiums for leasehold and short term cash flow properties: lodging/self storage 16-18% apt/retail 12-14% office 10%+. $SAFE at 5% dividend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2021587958193623358)  2026-02-11T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting look @Yardi: self storage construction is ticking up this year-- 6% increase in new supply. Interesting in light of the anemic housing market which continues to depress self storage demand. May take a while longer for self storage rent growth to improve. $CUBE $PSA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2023058950518907242)  2026-02-15T15:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Good insight from @RealPage on why shelter CPI remains stuck at long term average: renewal rents are still at 3%+/- and are generally 60-70% of all leases depending on the market. New lease rent growth negative but restricted to the Sunbelt and has bottomed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2017030151305900431)  2026-01-30T00:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Another good insight from @AvisonYoung on office leasing compared to pre-Covid in major US markets. New York bulletproof momentum play in SF. Have to be very selective everywhere else"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2017219090977362118)  2026-01-30T12:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Good look from @MSCI_Inc on lack of distress sales post COVID relative to GFC. Two reasons (1) the financial plumbing and debt stack blew up in GFC but held together this time due to a supportive Fed (2) the major operating distress now is in office whereas in the GFC it was broader and concentrated in residential which is a larger piece of the investment universe. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018832279540257059 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018832279540257059"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2018832279540257059)  2026-02-03T23:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Good look from @MMREIS on continuing disparity between renewal and new apartment rents and why we remain convinced of decent rent growth and firm shelter CPI. New lease rents continue be negative but renewals which are 50-70% of leases depending on operator continue above 3%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2020536073806319998)  2026-02-08T16:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"New from @costar predicting industrial vacancy to peak by end of the year. If the recovery continues we think it peaks by the end of Q1. Goods producing/storing economy likely to run hot and new supply continues to drop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2020638454699450524)  2026-02-08T23:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Yes. New Commentary: "Busting the Housing Log Jam" The conundrum is that 42% of mortgages have a rate below 3.35% and therefore borrowers are locked-into their homes. This "sand in the gearbox" is jamming the housing market that makes up 18% of our economic activity. Today I New Commentary: "Busting the Housing Log Jam" The conundrum is that 42% of mortgages have a rate below 3.35% and therefore borrowers are locked-into their homes. This "sand in the gearbox" is jamming the housing market that makes up 18% of our economic activity. Today I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2020640896199614794)  2026-02-08T23:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"From @Newmark warehouse sublease space up dramatically from [----] due mainly to a slowdown in demand from home builders. But still a fraction of total inventory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2021201892815274203)  2026-02-10T12:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"As predicted shelter CPI continues to firm at long term average as apt. fundamentals bottom and high interest rates create a generation of renters-by-necessity. Only a recession and/or much lower mortgage rates will provide the much predicted drop in shelter CPI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2022647787842589066)  2026-02-14T12:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Watching the #PropTech stocks tank on Anthropic news and broader concerns about resilience of SaaS in the face of AI and risk capital chasing shiny new objects. $PCOR $APPF $CSGP $MSFT But switching costs and enterprise embedment of our tech stack creates deep moats in our view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2019044196548759960)  2026-02-04T13:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Good insight from @CBRE on large disparity in bulk warehouse net absorption by building age. Flight to new quality custom. [--] billion sf net absorption in 2023-5 buildings over last [--] years. Only 60MM in 2020-22 buildings in same period negative 440MM in older"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2020562684974907771)  2026-02-08T18:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Wipe out in brokerage stocks due to AI scare makes no sense. $JLL $CBRE $CIGI $CWK. Real estate still a bespoke PE business for a reason. However higher interest rates could depress transaction volumes and fees @MSCI_Inc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2022286585681604848)  2026-02-13T12:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"New @FirstAmStuart : office conversions as we predicted less than 1% of 8B SF inventory. Meanwhile new office construction still growing at 4% [--] days a week is permanent and AI impact real. Survivors will have to have location quality amenities or deep discount basis resets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2023077943917056498)  2026-02-15T16:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@otter401 @jayparsons Agree. Cap rates are idiosyncratic to specific markets product types and building leasing status . But target IRRs are generally correlated to the 10Y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1959792930874376400)  2025-08-25T01:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@GoodGuyGuaranty Agree. Cap rates are idiosyncratic to specific markets product types and building leasing status . But target IRRs are generally correlated to the 10Y at least for sane investors 🙂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1959793673924997199)  2025-08-25T01:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Neutral_Man @jayparsons In our view cap rates are idiosyncratic to specific markets real estate and building occupancy status. But at least for sane investors target irrs are highly correlated to the [--] year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1960311108780134726)  2025-08-26T11:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Look @jpmorgan on close correlation of Fed Funds rate to the Taylor Rule which says that this rate should reflect current economic growth and inflation relative to target. Our view is that the current debate is less about the Taylor Rule and more about where we actually are on both inflation and growth. We need better ways to measure both"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1962547401488503100)  2025-09-01T16:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Analysis @CoStarGroup on "same-store" commercial real estate pricing since the dot com bust. The "Investment Grade"category is core real estate "US General" is non core. Interesting divergence: IG prices dropping as Fed tightened while non core/value add pricing still grew"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1963266878450897386)  2025-09-03T15:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@kylematthewsceo @jayparsons Yep. Shelter index flawed. But housing unaffordabily has created a generation of renters by necessity and that will continue to put upward pressure on the index until mortgage rates drop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1965084910206742740)  2025-09-08T16:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"BLS revisions: 880K in private losses for [--] months prior to March [----]. All pre-tariff yet largest losses in wholesale/retail trade (25%) BPS(18%) and hospitality (20%). Big CRE impact: retail hotels warehouse office. Post tariff numbers below likely to be revised lower. From @apolloglobal on job losses in tariffed sectors. Mostly CRE. Manufacturing construction (prices up 8% YTD as well per @JLL ) retail transportation warehousing. Q2 was first quarter of negative absorption in industrial since GFC shopping centers negative all year. https://t.co/fU3yzl86FW From @apolloglobal on job losses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1965427014418186569)  2025-09-09T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Will be interesting to see how this plays out. If mortgage rates drop far enough many SFH renters-by-necessity will become home buyers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1967620841715470510)  2025-09-15T16:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@super_breakout @tomkeene yeah it will be interesting to see. View here is that lower rates will dramatically increase the supply of homes for sale particularly from owners with COVID era mortgage rates. Tom love the show"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1968029695385145491)  2025-09-16T19:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Good look from @apolloglobal on retail sales growth since start of year. Interestingly spending growth now is HIGHER than it was pre-liberation day. But growth is limited to essentials + cars: the rest of discretionary + building materials is negative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1968055188184604949)  2025-09-16T20:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DalFornoCapital @Mr_Neutral_Man Appreciate your insights. How are you valuing REIT's By dividend yield or NAV As a private guy I can tell you that stabilized well located CRE except office is trading at 5-6% caps which is below borrowing rates. Office at 7-8% caps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1968321312432202109)  2025-09-17T14:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Good charts from @jpmorgan that pretty much sum up the residential housing markets. SF home building tailing off as inventory increases"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1968432833237549144)  2025-09-17T21:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ElsewhereCRE Nice gotta check that show out. Hope you visitsummer/fall is our best season"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1972323166921076877)  2025-09-28T15:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Dept of Commerce stats show that 97% of US importers are SME's and account for about 1/3 of import value. Tariff impacts on our small bay leasing staring to show up in Texas and CA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1973758376145510655)  2025-10-02T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NickTimiraos Yep. But we think this sunbelt softness will not lead to further drops in shelter CPI absent a recession or big drop in mortgage rates.we are now at historical averages and coastal and Midwest growth rates remain robust for the most part. Our [--] year average is 4%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1975551075215433866)  2025-10-07T13:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Good chart from @apolloglobal on non-residential construction since COVID. Interest rates a key determinant even with AI fueled data center construction. Key question: who are the take out buyers for non Mag [--] developers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1977740056140869889)  2025-10-13T14:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Interesting look from @Attomdata on continuing low levels of SFH foreclosure activity in spite of high mortgage rates--still significantly below pre-pandemic numbers. State with worst foreclosure rate was Illinois followed by Delaware Nevada Florida and South Carolina"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1977741773947482250)  2025-10-13T14:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jasonfurman Apollo arguing that GDP being turbocharged by capex while employment slowdown due to AI lower immigration and gov job cutbacks. Concludes inflation still a significant risk which we agree with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1977755909305577473)  2025-10-13T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If you though tariffs were tough on US real estate wait til you read @DeloitteCanada 's report on the impact on Canadian real estate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1978223853210832935)  2025-10-14T22:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Enjoyed the back-to-back Waller/Dutta @RenMacLLC interviews @BloombergTV and @ferrotv and @annmarie. Trifecta next time with @biancoresearch View from our commercial real estate cheap seats. Economy: warehouse labor slack across our US markets particularly (oddly) Florida although Phoenix Houston and Dallas still strong. Our retailers holding up although they typically fall hard only after recession kicks in. Office using employment growth (ex-financial services) is still negative in our markets from what we can tell and exacerbating hybrid work office vacancy issues: per BLS negative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1979233921289040244)  2025-10-17T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"#commercialrealestate lending still on life support according to @CBRE . Nice to see #banks were the largest non-agency lender group at 40% of loans during Q4 2023: Banks: 40% Alternative lenders: 30% Lifecos: 25% CMBS : 5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1760668042000806291)  2024-02-22T14:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This is what generative AI does to data center land value. Microsoft just paid $466MM for [---] acres outside of DC to build data centers. Seller bought it for $47MM in [----]. That's $3.7MM/acre. Data center land in the area was trading in [----] at $1MM-$1.4MM/acre. Only going in one direction from here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1763956187500773719)  2024-03-02T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting list of the most shorted #REITS. #office and #hotels dominate. #office shorting more of a bet on secular changes in that industry #hotels more a macro bet although Revpar and ADR continue to outperform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1782462568260370465)  2024-04-22T17:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Shake out in co-working inuring to the benefit of one provider: $IWG They own Regus HQ and Spaces. Also converting to a management model where they share in profits with the #office landlord but incur no master lease liabilities. Should be bullish for them long term but management model co-working will always be a tenant of last resort for most landlords so locations will increasingly be in hard-to-lease spaces in most buildings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1807079791662596195)  2024-06-29T15:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Not all #office sales are distressed. $CUZ U/C with Spectrum/Invesco @$500+/sf and a 7.4% cap on this 97% leased new development in the South End of Charlotte. Main and main location and Class AA. This is the kind of building that has a bright future in spite of the hybrid work sea change. This is a full price sale. Sellers still making a profit but $CUZ has upside from leases that were struck during the depths of COVID. This is a deal only a REIT can do---a private buyer would not have been able to finance below the cap rate but because $CUZ borrows in the bond market and sold equity they"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1855051046940274853)  2024-11-09T00:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Good article from @business on how @Allstate has cut its office footprint from 12MM SF to 4MMSF saving $244MM in the process. And of the remaining 4MM SF much of it going to co-working spaces which are both cheaper and require minimal long term commitments. Corporations have never been able to see out more than six months into the future so multi-year commitments to office space never made any sense anyway. As we have said here before "return to office" policies are a red herring: hybrid work has provided corporations a huge cost cutting and liability management opportunity and they are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1858977891406520557)  2024-11-19T20:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"There is optimism at NAREIT this week that #CRE volume will increase and cap rates will decrease if and when the [--] year goes down--like they did in COVID. But this chart @MSCI_Inc shows that cap rates are at (non-recession) long term averages right now and in the dot com bust and GFC cap rates spiked and transactions tanked due to economic uncertainty. Improvements in transaction volume and values are contingent on continued economic expansion not interest rates. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859350477684736350 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859350477684736350"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1859350477684736350)  2024-11-20T21:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NLOP sold $300MM of longer term leased single tenant office in [----] with an average cap rate of 10.5%. Pre-pandemic this cap was routinely 6-7% depending on term and credit. But over time these caps will drop again as the office business rightsizes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1877740052979081369)  2025-01-10T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CUZ bought Sail Tower in Austin CBD for $650/sf and 7% cap. Full price deal in distressed market. 100% leased to Google for [--] years but tenant never occupied. 9% COC on 50% equity 50% debt @ 5.4% IO rate. Nice spread to credit and you have [--] years to backfill a trophy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1881024993070653554)  2025-01-19T17:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Per @JLL the top tier office market is stabilizing--call it the top 10-15% of the assets. But the rest are suffering from a secular shift in how we use office. And most of the latter is the collateral behind #cmbs. More delinquency and special servicing ahead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1882924411944317237)  2025-01-24T22:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This distressed sale @bisnow is a comment on the lender $BXMT. Buyer paid seller a little more than it paid for it in [----]. But lender got paid back. Many mortgage Reits have exposure to office but the smart ones lent with enough collateral to get their money back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1884614285818499153)  2025-01-29T14:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This out from @apolloglobal on large increase in median homebuyer age since COVID. High mortgage rates crimp new and existing supply and hurt home affordability. Supply issue has existed since GFC decimated the home building industry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1892915358043914290)  2025-02-21T12:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$AVB Q4 [----] results reflect nice buy/sell arbitrage. Sold $212MM in New Canaan Seattle and Berkeley for 5.3% cap. Bought out partners at 6%+ caps in Austin and Denver for $190MM. That's how you do it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1895459950639644976)  2025-02-28T13:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Good overview of state of CRE loan performance as of Q4 from @TreppWire. Things under control. Issue for Q1 earnings this week is new CRE loan originations. Banks not hitting the pause button yet from what we are seeing but some are close given macro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1909561006612709838)  2025-04-08T10:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"In this week's earnings call $WYNN announced a hold on a $375MM renovation of its Encore property due to tariff-induced materials price hikes. We are seeing this in other property types too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1920441613030924395)  2025-05-08T11:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting data for Manhattan office: $VNO just signed a [--] year (yes 70) [---] MM sf lease with NYU at [---] Broadway. Probably around $100/sf. Tishman U/C on [---] Lafayette in Soho for $108MM (720/sf) Office market recovery continues in Manhattan. Everywhere else not so much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1921574287296573598)  2025-05-11T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"621-633 17th street in downtown Denver just traded for $3MM ($3/sf). [----] sale price was $112MM. Denver downtown office vacancy at 30% Full city block [--] buildings plus a parking garage. Going to a full residential conversion. B office carnage continues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1922673611866816531)  2025-05-14T15:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"News from $VNO that they are under contract to sell [---] West 22nd for $205MM or about $1200/sf. One of our favorite buildings in Manhattan---on the High Line and next to the Chelsea Thicket. Good comment on the health of the Manhattan market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1923088000872853955)  2025-05-15T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting look from @MSCI_Inc on secular shift in multi cap rates since GFC. GFC led to artificial spike but secular and in our view permanent shift to sub 6% due to new entry of large institutions into the asset class post-GFC. Sub 5% buyers during COVID in trouble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1923471658540576992)  2025-05-16T20:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Two recent sales provide an interesting object lesson on cap rates by product type. $CPT just bought this Clearwater property for $109MM slightly above its [----] price of $104MM. [---] bp+ increase in cap rates during the hold. Garfield Business Center in CA just traded for $97MM up from its [----] price of $52MM. Cap rates dropped 100bps in that period. Yes rents went up at both properties too. But cap rate dynamics mattered more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1928925336328163555)  2025-05-31T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Another important sunbelt multi comp: $EQR under contract with $BX to buy [----] Atlanta units for $535MM ($260K/door) and a sub 5% cap. Average age [--] years so good product. In-place rents reflect recent softness but strong upside given age and location"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1930250766171709718)  2025-06-04T13:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Buybacks in CRE are more fun than in stocks. Spear Street just bought back this Sunnyvale office building for $88MM ($566/sf) after selling it to Stockbridge for $183MM in [----]. Major tenant went BK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1933512615256314246)  2025-06-13T13:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"US warehouse investing continues to be resilient @MSCI_Inc despite higher rates a decade high vacancy rate tariffs and flat rent growth. Why Supply grinding to a halt vacancy mainly in big box it's a product essential to the economy and evergreen hopes for lower rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1952024865827103021)  2025-08-03T15:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Look from @markets on yield convergence between REIT implied caps S&P forward earnings yield [--] month T bill and IG corporate bonds. If lower rates come via recession house view is that corporates are the clear winner. If lower rates come for other reasons it's S and P"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1961804388789330422)  2025-08-30T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Survey from $PLD shows that supply chain companies are at 70% full gen #AI adoption. Average for rest of economy is under 10%. Supply chains had previously been built on analytical (1.0) AI anyway so step up is natural"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1975549608790274466)  2025-10-07T13:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Will be interesting to see where this goes $MPW. Implications for broader SLB market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1976617981351272791)  2025-10-10T11:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting in light of $DAL earnings comments on corporate travel demand. 📉 Baird Hotel Stock Index Posts Largest Decline Since March After a strong summer hotel stocks reversed course in September with the Baird Hotel Stock Index tracking [--] leading hotel brands and REITs falling 4.1% its sharpest drop since March. 💼 Key Highlights: * Hotel 📉 Baird Hotel Stock Index Posts Largest Decline Since March After a strong summer hotel stocks reversed course in September with the Baird Hotel Stock Index tracking [--] leading hotel brands and REITs falling 4.1% its sharpest drop since March. 💼 Key"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1976649099136184653)  2025-10-10T14:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"From @Moodys showing US economy by state. Many states in danger of recession defined as no/negative job growth. A few already in--interesting to see Florida there which Moody's says is showing no job growth big hits to tourism/leisure/hospitality and falling home prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1978469196552876178)  2025-10-15T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Good insight from @jpmorgan showing blended #REIT cost of capital of 6% preventing accretive investing in a sub 6% world. Privates doing most of the buying. If debt costs drop and/or REITS benefit from sector rotation this will fundamentally change. $VNQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1979215340111282636)  2025-10-17T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"From the Towle and Co. October investor letter: "According to some measures the AI buildout has accounted for half of recent U.S. GDP growth. But whether that capex will deliver healthy returns is debatable. Estimates suggest GPUs which make up roughly half the cost of a new data center have a useful life of only about three years. Unlike the railroads of the late 1800s or the fiber networks of the early 2000s much of todays AI infrastructure is short-lived and will demand replacement in a few short years.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1980413918196424737)  2025-10-20T23:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"New from @cbre showing that [----] secondary offerings were mainly GP led as LP's/lenders wanted out. Mainly warehouse and apartment continuation funds. Hold periods being pushed out IRR's dropping LP's selling at discounts but GP fees overall just fine. Information asymmetry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1980630585111609564)  2025-10-21T13:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Agree new supply is way down across all product types and given the 40% run up in construction costs due to Covid and tariff inflation there is an extraordinary bull case for rents in the medium term. But office supply is still increasing albeit at a decreasing rate: office tear downs or conversions are less than a quarter of one percent of stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1980696862136127978)  2025-10-21T18:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"From @jpmorgan and MSCI: #cre transactions up 19% Y/Y but still well below pre-pandemic average--again it's primarily interest rates. Average cap rates aren't terribly useful but continue to hover in low 6% range: Hotels 8% Office/retail: 7% Apartments 5.6% Industrial: 6%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1981013451591066103)  2025-10-22T15:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This chart is always worth a look @GoldmanSachs. Growing stress for the crew that did not lock in long during the pandemic but not at a tipping point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1981690617823715664)  2025-10-24T11:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"From @jpmorgan on flattening tariff collections. No definitive conclusion as to why but posits among other things (1) reduced imports (2) supply chain shifts to lower tariff countries. We certainly see both of these trends in our warehouses. More fodder for bond vigilantes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1982862462442721303)  2025-10-27T17:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Based on Q3 apt. REIT earnings reports most apt. renewals are still in the 3-4% range but many new leases are definitely flat to down. The issue is that 30% of CPI comes from something different: single family rentals (OER) which has been growing 3-4% according to SF REITS like $INVH. One interesting note: the last CPI print shows OER way down. Will be interesting to see if that was a stat problem due to shutdown or the start of a major disinflation trend due to a weak labor markets/recession"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1984726157095551126)  2025-11-01T20:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"More and more of my fellow travelers in the warehouse biz selling their land to data center developers. Unclear how sustainable this is in the short term given short half-life of chips power impact on free cash flow. CDS swaps widening for the hyperscalers especially $ORCL. The Market Is Turning Against AI Spending https://t.co/Afp7Y7SL1h The Market Is Turning Against AI Spending https://t.co/Afp7Y7SL1h"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1987581284583956774)  2025-11-09T18:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"New @savills shows an existential problem for office real estate: while the CPI basket has increased a total of about 35% since [----] Class A office TI's have grown 100%. Why To prop up occupancy and rents at a time when WFH and AI is creating a secular drop in demand. Office delinquency now higher than GFC and could hit 20% before it stabilizes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1988056279651414375)  2025-11-11T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Interesting contrast between @trepp and @Moodys on office CMBS deliquency rate: Trepp at 11% Moody's at 16%. Both way above GFC peaks due to secular changes in demand. House view is that office gets to 20% due to systemic issues in class B office. #CommercialRealEstate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1988959302061830569)  2025-11-13T13:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Interesting look from @Newmark on recovery of bank CRE lending after working post SVB issues. CMBS/Lifecos stepped into the gap in the interregnum. Apartments warehouse food of choice still selective on office and new construction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1988992704655634737)  2025-11-13T15:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"From Harley Bassman @SimplifyAsstMgt (one of my ATF's) this morning: "Between tariffs and mass deportations (not a comment on the virtue of such policies) I promise the FED's 2% inflation target is a fantasy held aloft by a plate full of gummies at [--] Liberty Street. (Think of Reagan's jar of Jelly Bellies just juiced up a bit.) Nominal GDP near 5% will continue as long as Trump runs a Fiscal Deficit near 6% without a war or recession. That said Cassandra's abound and Trump's sycophants at the FED and Treasury may well jam rates lower via Yield Curve Control (YCC).""  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1989329180534686196)  2025-11-14T13:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"From @bloomberg on how some pension funds are trying a different approach to asset allocation. Instead of being static it is dynamic and classes compete for % allocation by highest returns. Could selectively put real estate at 20%+ at bottoms of #commercialrealestate cycles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1990483419956990200)  2025-11-17T18:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Sahm Rule Housing market in terrible shape continued government job losses and anemic wage growth. Hard not to see an economy on life support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1991562677433606437)  2025-11-20T17:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"From @MSCI_Inc on CRE price movement. Above trend growth during COVID due to abnormal interest rates later down to trend due to deteriorating fundamentals and Fed tightening except for industrial which remains the darling. Flow of funds matter as much as interest rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1992962901598974135)  2025-11-24T14:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Note out today from @jpmorgan predicting 8000+ S&P. Says much of AI spending is due to companies having FOBO--"fear of being obsolete". True from where we sit. The problem is many of them already are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1993731814603509839)  2025-11-26T17:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"We have posted versions of this before but we have followed @ADP jobs numbers for a while and they true up with the BLS numbers with a lag. Jobs on life support. This one from @WellsFargo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1995939887531376847)  2025-12-02T19:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Neutral_Man Just say no to indexing. Senior housing will eventually break out of its home in health care and become its own category. Fundamentals are monster big . Private debacles in senior housing like $BX were a function of Covid and not a reflection of long term potential"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1995990593709773023)  2025-12-02T22:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"From @WSJ . Over half of US primary mortgages are still at or below 4% stalling housing market. But new purchases and refis are leading to slow pig-in-the-python increases in rates. Eventually the dam will break"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2003535282063441993)  2025-12-23T18:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Good look from @REITs_Nareit on public vs private cap rates and occupancy. Although we agree publics have higher occupancy we think some of the private caps are too low: private office/warehouse trading at or above publics private apts trading 5-6%. Retail looks right. #REIT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2003871682017243369)  2025-12-24T16:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Good look from @EvercoreISI on early warning levels for credit default swaps. Readings above the lines indicate systemic stress. As real estate investors we monitor this daily--have since [----] and we were able sell before the GFC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2005648444564832270)  2025-12-29T14:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Look from National Storage Affiliates on return/volatility of publicly traded REITS. Self-storage is best risk-adjusted performer with apartments warehouses health care distant runner ups. Set up for self-storage is particularly interesting given frozen SFH market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2005801949896249536)  2025-12-30T00:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Good level set from @costar on apt rent growth by city. Large rent declines limited to sunbelt and mountain west which will continue in [----] as new supply burns off. Rest of the country is positive or only slightly negative and there growth numbers will increase in 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2006052352004968863)  2025-12-30T17:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Good chart from @newsgreenstreet on how GAV can inform private vs public CRE investing. By way of example public CRE investors are paying more for senior housing REIT shares than the underlying asset values so look to private for value. Converse argument for single family"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2007878483025035465)  2026-01-04T18:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"From @jpmorgan on large drop in apt. excess supply over the last [--] months. We are now below historical median and have a set up that is supportive of 4-5% rent growth. Don't look for shelter CPI to help with inflation prints absent recession/dramatically lower mortgage rates. @FerroTV @tomkeene https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009304478944477297 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009304478944477297"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2009304478944477297)  2026-01-08T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"December shelter CPI in line with our [----] predictions: it has bottomed and headed up absent a recession or dramatically lower interest rates. For inflation to moderate further help has to come from the other components"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2011647584830644228)  2026-01-15T03:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Argument @jpmorgan that we are in early stages of a real estate recovery. With improving fundamentals and a quiescent Fed could be. But cap rate spreads are already at historical tights we are already [--] years+ into an expansion the 10Y remains stubborn and geopolitical risk is real. We'll see. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013297685067862487 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013297685067862487"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2013297685067862487)  2026-01-19T17:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"As we have said here before don't expect any help with inflation from shelter tomorrow. #apartment rents bottomed a year ago and most SF home renters (OER) are renters by necessity due to high mortgage rates. There is a reason $BX is buying $AIRC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1777704544551457167)  2024-04-09T14:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Turns out $AMZN paid $456MM ($750/sf) Home run for RFR. And an extraordinary bullish comment on Mag [--] interest in Manhattan. RFR just sold [---] 5th to Amazon for an undisclosed amount. Fully vacant: former home of Morgan Stanley's IB group. RFR bought it for $350MM ($583/sf) in [----]. Had defaulted on a $224MM mortgage ($373/sf). Bullish comment on tech office use in Manhattan. https://t.co/28yLS8e6BN RFR just sold [---] 5th to Amazon for an undisclosed amount. Fully vacant: former home of Morgan Stanley's IB group. RFR bought it for $350MM ($583/sf) in [----]. Had defaulted on a $224MM mortgage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1921575215194059135)  2025-05-11T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$INVH announced their renewal rental rates were up 4.5% in Q3. As we have said breathless pronouncements that shelter CPI is now in "free fall" are wrong. We are now close to long term averages and absent a recession or large drop in mortgage rates we see them staying there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/1984249588795232614)  2025-10-31T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Good insight from @TreppWire on wide dispersion of NOI growth in industrial property. 41% growing NOI at 5%+ while 31% experiencing negative NOI growth more than -5%. Belies the general narrative of industrial being a bullet proof asset class"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2016101894003822835)  2026-01-27T10:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"From @apolloglobal on labor hour savings by industry from AI. Highest in office using industries which eventually will lead to reduced headcount for entry level office jobs. Key question is whether it will lead to increased headcount in mid to high level managerial"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2016582681426088118)  2026-01-28T18:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Good insights from @apolloglobal Torsten Slock on large divergence in employment growth between SMB and large since Liberation day. Certainly seeing this in our small bay industrial on the coasts and is tariff related. Our smaller office tenants are also citing AI as a reason not to expand or not renew"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2016912509488283993)  2026-01-29T16:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Look from @MorningstarInc on declining cap rates across all property types even as the [--] year remains stubbornly above 4%. Spreads at multi-decade tights in securitizations but still positive leverage. Many private caps--particularly warehouse--are below borrowing rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2017215636175208820)  2026-01-30T12:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Interesting look from @AvisonYoung on decreasing number of large office leases nationally. Still below pre-COVID levels and headed south. Hybrid work for many tenants requires smaller more distributed leases with shorter terms as tenants navigate the new normal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2017217372264837261)  2026-01-30T12:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Reminder from @Redfin that 67%+ of the US apt rental market is in smaller apartments townhouses and single family and these are the properties that determine the direction of rental rates. Publicly traded SFR and apartment earnings data a small fraction of the universe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2017221688123855102)  2026-01-30T13:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"A similar chart is posted in our main conference room. REIT returns consistently beat real estate PE by 200-300 basis points over the medium to long term and with real liquidity. This sets our business model: public and private real estate investing with a high bar for private"  
[X Link](https://x.com/steelbridgecap/status/2007498687031972046)  2026-01-03T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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