#  @johnkmason John Mason John Mason posts on X about $qure, $nrp, $hcc, $amr the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::2421442308/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +4.70% - [--] Month [---------] +778% - [--] Months [---------] +7,181% - [--] Year [---------] +4,275% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2421442308/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] +21% - [--] Months [---] +326% - [--] Year [---] +62% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2421442308/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.20% - [--] Month [-----] +1.40% - [--] Months [-----] +47% - [--] Year [-----] +91% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::2421442308/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [currencies](/list/currencies) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) **Social topic influence** [$qure](/topic/$qure), [$nrp](/topic/$nrp), [$hcc](/topic/$hcc), [$amr](/topic/$amr), [market](/topic/market), [in the](/topic/in-the), [debt](/topic/debt), [$val](/topic/$val), [met](/topic/met), [$clpt](/topic/$clpt) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@tradedollarnut](/creator/undefined) [@amaymd](/creator/undefined) [@ab1001disciple](/creator/undefined) [@kingdomcapadv](/creator/undefined) [@stokedonwaves](/creator/undefined) [@alvaro6v](/creator/undefined) [@natstewart5](/creator/undefined) [@yellowlablife](/creator/undefined) [@ragingbullcap](/creator/undefined) [@petermantas](/creator/undefined) [@w98ab](/creator/undefined) [@brexhq](/creator/undefined) [@biohazard3737](/creator/undefined) [@respeculator](/creator/undefined) [@taobanker](/creator/undefined) [@loneelmcapital](/creator/undefined) [@tclaugus2](/creator/undefined) [@mfwarder](/creator/undefined) [@scalpavelli](/creator/undefined) [@fahdananta](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [uniQure N.V. (QURE)](/topic/$qure) [Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)](/topic/$hcc) [Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)](/topic/$amr) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM)](/topic/$zim) [Abivax SA (ABVX)](/topic/$abvx) [CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)](/topic/$cava) [Spruce Biosciences, Inc. (SPRB)](/topic/$sprb) [Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (ATMU)](/topic/$atmu) [Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)](/topic/$tdw) [Sweetgreen Inc. (SG)](/topic/$sg) [Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT)](/topic/$srpt) [Ramaco Resources, Inc. Common Stock (METC)](/topic/$metc) [Cummins Inc. (CMI)](/topic/$cmi) [Danaos Corporation (DAC)](/topic/$dac) [WEN Token (WEN)](/topic/$wen) [Intellia Therapeutics, Inc (NTLA)](/topic/$ntla) [Common Wealth (WLTH)](/topic/$wlth) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)](/topic/$btu) [Noble Corporation (NE)](/topic/$ne) [Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [Superp (SUP)](/topic/$sup) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@DesatCap Sorry for the beginner question but I dont understand the attractiveness of $VZ. $17b in FCF for [----] and at a $315b EV. Why is a 5.3% FCF yield attractive Terminal value for the operating assets or just valuing it on EV/EBITDA like other telecom" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1687552285663182848) 2023-08-04T19:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@OtterMarket $NRP is a good example of this. They really found religion back in the mid-2010s and have been incredibly disciplined about delevering since. Just $86m in $BX prefs $50m in warrants and the credit facility (mainly accrued to payoff prefs) left" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1702169849760256444) 2023-09-14T03:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@SpreadThread1 @rydehedgefund If spreads blew out wouldnt that reflect something breaking (and the Fed lowering rates in response) Though I suppose it could be a bear steepener and long end rates remain elevated as the fed cuts- is that the scenario you anticipate" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1718822557539795013) 2023-10-30T02:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Still a ways for chatGPT to go. request to parse PDF of $UNTC Q2 results failed entirely (tbf it's a large file). Then I tried asking for a replica of a screenshot of the specific table which went through but outputted nonsense:" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1723045923696050281) 2023-11-10T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$NRP is now my largest position (20%). What am I missing -Soda ash: let's assume a reversion to [----] distro of $31m. $43m+ 2015-18 [--]. -Minerals: Say we permanently return to 2020's $73m (87m OCF minus the soda ash distro). -Add $28m for reduced interest expense vs '20" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1724245970924302365) 2023-11-14T02:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@respeculator looking at the Wood Mackenzie report pretty noticeable they omit Mongolia which IEA had at [--] Mt in [----] and estimated [--] Mt in 2023" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1725769884468924735) 2023-11-18T06:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HCC $NRP $AMR $WHC https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/YQ*0/futures-prices If you're wondering why China can sustain the biggest naval build up in the world. Well here are workers in a shipyard in Jiangsu finishing their shifts. https://t.co/gsZY6cni7D https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/YQ*0/futures-prices If you're wondering why China can sustain the biggest naval build up in the world. Well here are workers in a shipyard in Jiangsu finishing their shifts. https://t.co/gsZY6cni7D" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1728606552641225205) 2023-11-26T02:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@DakotasTwits @BoxLongs Part of it is their federal vs state mix isn't it I looked at these back when Burry picked it up a couple years ago and $CXW outperformed (temporarily) amid fears of Biden admin ending $GEO contracts. $CXW is more insulated from broad federal action" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1729583242355863711) 2023-11-28T19:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@evfcfaddict Are you concerned at all about the unusual capex this Q They barely mentioned it in the discussion notes and not at all in the earnings call even though it ate up 60% of OCF" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1730452302618616241) 2023-12-01T05:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@taobanker Sympathize. I went with $EVO.ST last month for quality. Happy to take a 6% FCF yield with high teens growth and good capital allocation (besides slots acq). Also CEO's large purchases always seem to mark bottoms" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1732645431778119981) 2023-12-07T06:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Pre-bankruptcy common's warrants have $63.74 strike. Assuming prior bear case was poor capital allocation with BS cash (acq etc) warrants could now go ITM. curious why Prescott/Frohlich risked dilution vs dribble out divvies to avoid spikes a la Jan '23. $UNTC Merry Christmas from $UNTC https://t.co/PnKfsR3X7O Merry Christmas from $UNTC https://t.co/PnKfsR3X7O" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1733291576971968681) 2023-12-09T01:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@DeckoDeck903 @kingdomcapadv I'd rather they obliterate warrants by making sure they expire OTM on Sep [--] 2027" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1733296086435897755) 2023-12-09T01:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For #1 see the I/S on page [--] of the [----] annual report: For #2 see the 3/16/23 press release: Q4 cost of products ($936k) and SG&A ($2m) alone get them to $2.9m. I suppose the NI # could be from Q4 tax recovery from NOLs" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1737187630662422568) 2023-12-19T19:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@loneelmcapital @bhallcpa When you combine 401k with IRA rollovers and Roth conversion (to pick when to pay tax and in which bracket) it's pretty worthwhile. I had a family member convert just enough Trad IRA-Roth to take them to the top of the 12% tax bracket for [--] yrs. Great tax minimization tool" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1740609097173737850) 2023-12-29T05:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Listed returns conservatively assume deposits available at beginning of year (in denominator). Time-weighted not available as I switched back and forth between Fidelity/IBKR last year AND this year" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1740961705600196700) 2023-12-30T05:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Not displayed: 1% shorts on $MDB $IOT $FLNC $DCBO (double dipping on the tender offer)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1740961706854277289) 2023-12-30T05:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Began actively investing [----]. Have learned SO much from folks here - really really appreciate you all. 2023: 28.21% (portfolio) vs. 26.29% (SP500) 2022: 5.62% vs. -18.11% 2021: 31.61% vs. 28.71% 2020: 26.46% vs. 18.4% EOY Port: $NRP $HCC $CZBS $CPHRF $EPSN $UNTC $AMR $EVVTY" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741128986527199323) 2023-12-30T16:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Listed returns conservatively assume deposits/savings available at beginning of year (in denominator). Time-weighted not available as I switched back and forth between Fidelity/IBKR last year AND this year" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1741128989861650650) 2023-12-30T16:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Not displayed: 1% shorts on $MDB $IOT $FLNC $DCBO (double dipping on the tender offer)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1741128990813741414) 2023-12-30T16:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@PlanMaestro For Chinese stocks Id feel more comfortable if the dividend yield was MUCH higher vs buybacks. Of course the buybacks at current FCF yield are more accretive but in case Xi decides to take my money Id rather at least have the divvies in my pocket" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1743750316380574051) 2024-01-06T21:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@GavinSBaker UTR is a startup that brought Elo to tennis It's high fidelity enough that HS prospects can email college coaches their UTR profile and that can be sufficient to get a look" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1746677123060801768) 2024-01-14T23:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@tclaugus2 Apple has made it easier to pay via Apple Pay on mobile whether in-app or in mobile web. I've definitely seen Square storefront sites offer the ability to pay via Apple Pay (but also Paypal and Google Pay) for example" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1747334742981177440) 2024-01-16T19:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Looks like $NRP warrantholders are beginning to exercise. In the Feb [--] 8-K NRP reported 1.08m warrants outstanding after purchasing [------] down from 1.54m per the Oct [--] 8-K. So warrantholders exercised 261k (1.54m-1.08m-198767) no doubt contributing to today's selling" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1754969982515941844) 2024-02-06T20:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Sorry was wrong- [------] new shares for $NRP warrantholders as of Feb [--] (+$10m to cover the difference in value of the [------] warrants) likely contributing to today's selling. Love seeing these 8-Ks as they're effectively buybacks. @johnkmason That is not what happened. [------] were exercised. NRP settled the warrants on a net basis with $10 million incash and [------] common units. [------] wts * (97.62-34) = 29.4M in value. Warrant holders recv'd $10 million + [------] * [-----] = 29.4M @johnkmason That is not what happened. [------] were exercised. NRP settled the warrants on a net basis with $10" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1755032649100345728) 2024-02-07T00:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "-9/18/23 ($78.67 closing price): 812.5k warrants repurchased by $NRP for $33.6m. Effectively $64.99/sh (weighted avg of $22.81/$34 warrants) -10/6/23 ($75.64): 300k $34 warrants for $11.4m. Eff $72/sh. -10/26/23 ($66.25): 350k $34 warrants for $11.1m. Eff $65.71/sh" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1755033137061454330) 2024-02-07T00:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@crowdturtle Given $NRP bought/immediately retired the last [--] times I assume the warrantholders wanted to try their luck. if they were part of today's volume I'm sure they regret it assuming $NRP offered them the $97.62 15-day VWAP price" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1755037011138789626) 2024-02-07T01:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@calvinfroedge $PXT.TO just looks a lot less FCF generative vs. $GPRK off a much larger market cap. So much capex Am comfortable with the higher-leverage $GPRK given low fixed cost of debt (5.5%)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1760770535808463197) 2024-02-22T20:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Sold my $AMR here. Bought a 2% pos at $165 last August. Happy to hedge my much larger $HCC and $NRP positions here at 10x FCF/for $1400 more ST tax. 165% gain (on 2%) vs my more modest 50% $HCC gain (on 15%) over the same period sadly. Buybacks buybacks buybacks" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1762173846352777598) 2024-02-26T17:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ultradeepa Appreciate the concern I am okay taking some met exposure off here. I have huge (25% NW) overall exposure to met coal and: [--]. $AMR with its high-volume lower-margin coal is particularly sensitive to met coal prices [--]. I still have implicit AMR exposure via $NRP" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1762183631349399986) 2024-02-26T18:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Picked up a 2% pos of $METCL. Senior Note/preferred by $METC. Basically a simple bet on when theyll call (past 7/30/23 call date). If they call before the next divvy date (4/30) I lose $25.48 (my basis) - $25 - accrued interest. Otherwise paid 9% to wait" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1763647593148477518) 2024-03-01T19:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Took a quick look this weekend at the interesting $CMI $ATMU odd lot special sit. Posting now that tender is closed/borrow cost won't spike more (hopefully)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1768063181639803112) 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "First the juice from the squeeze. Bought [--] $CMI for avg $270 $26730. 7% discount is $28743 of $ATMU value. $2013 baseline profit. Form S-4 here: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001921963/11a2b253-e331-420c-9371-34505b853508.pdf https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001921963/11a2b253-e331-420c-9371-34505b853508.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1768063182726103537) 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "But have to layer on two sensitivities: [--]. Biggest: $CMI $ATMU conversion ratio. Averaging Dates per S-4 were Mar [--] [--] [--]. Per Tradingview Monday's VWAP for $CMI was $269.19; for $ATMU $24.48. So a 11x conversion ratio (though Mar 7-8 VWAPs likely brought this up)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1768063183900528773) 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This sensitivity is crucial. If you buy $CMI at $270 and short $ATMU at $23.25 (prices I got pre-market Monday RIP) you're betting on a conversion ratio of [----]. But if you only get [----] $ATMU per $CMI upon conversion you'll have to cover the leftover [---] $ATMU for $1700" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1768063184970072313) 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2. $ATMU borrow cost to hedge. IBKR had cost at 78% at buy + max 6.83% margin. Call it 85%. Borrow cost/day of $67 implies a max # of days for execution to occur to breakeven" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1768063186056405398) 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "So I'll get [----] shares of $ATMU to cover my short plus some extra to sell. Now just hope they don't take too long to execute the tender and eat it all up with borrow fees" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1768063188363350481) 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "One more (wistful) note. At some points this week the $CMI to $ATMU ratio was trading at the low 10xs. Envious of anyone who sold short there having to sell short fewer shares (lower margin) and realizing a 12x conversion ratio (thus receiving more excess shares to sell)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1768065333468746113) 2024-03-14T00:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Nice. Thought market's earnings reaction last week didn't make sense so I upped from 2-3% pos. CF b4 changes in WC above $40m for 2nd Q in a row and Double E throughput continuing to rise. Too bad I couldn't size up more. Just had to risk manage given mgmt's history. $SMLP concludes strategic review. 8x EBITDA for a mediocre asset. Still own highest quality asset EE. Now with strategic flexibility to maximize unit price. Cap structure cleanup and capital returns in sight. https://t.co/jljd0fLL0w $SMLP concludes strategic review. 8x EBITDA for a mediocre asset. Still own highest quality asset" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1771190316038504702) 2024-03-22T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Credit to @natstewart5 for the flag. Highly highly recommend following him- his picks have been fantastic over the past year including $NRP at $45 and $NLOP at $15" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1771190321281413593) 2024-03-22T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@startagl063 But yes its been very helpful. Not much coverage out there on an illiquid highly levered MLP" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1771255951724556564) 2024-03-22T19:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Took a quick look at $SMLP today post-transaction. A few notes: (1/6) Sold Utica to $MPLX for $625m. This comprises the majority of their "Northeast" segment- Summit Utica and Ohio Gathering but excluding Mountaineer Midstream" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1772393107767582730) 2024-03-25T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "(2/6) [----] Adj EBITDA guidance revised from $260-300m to $185-220m. Means implied Adj EBITDA of Utica divestiture was 75-80m. So sold at 7.8-8.3x multiple. https://summitmidstreampartnerslp.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/summit-midstream-partners-lp-announces-sale-utica-position-625 https://summitmidstreampartnerslp.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/summit-midstream-partners-lp-announces-sale-utica-position-625" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1772393112330973530) 2024-03-25T22:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(3/6) Prior to txn $SMLP closed at $19.64/sh or about $1.9b EV- a 6.4-7.4x EV/Adj EBITDA. Closed at $27.59 today for an EV of about $2b $1.37b after the txn. So using the $185-220m guidance trading for 6.2x-7.4x EV/Adj EBITDA post-transaction" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1772393118240821447) 2024-03-25T22:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(5/6) That said bear case is: -Management signaled more potential bolt-on acquisitions in the future as they did in late [----] -Huge debt maturity upcoming in '26 across ABL facility new [----] senior notes and [----] secured notes (which will likely be refi'd at higher rate)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1772393126428099032) 2024-03-25T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "(6/6) Market basically saying "good job but we still don't believe in you/your debt" to $SMLP management. Can't say I strongly disagree. Will take gain and walk- prior to this update bet was "strategic review special sit" but now becomes "bet on mgmt/debt refi."" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1772393130936930777) 2024-03-25T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BichonRedux How about selling puts on high-conviction positions Ive sold puts on some of my longs (e.g. $NRP) that have run a bit but that Im happy to buy lower. Obviously still multiplies my tail risk on the stock. But fine having done the work" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1774226742288200003) 2024-03-31T00:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@YellowLabLife @canterbury_sid I'm just thinking sensitivities- in the most pessimistic long-term pricing scenario (which [----] futures are pricing right now) what are $HCC margins even incl BC And what would you value it at there" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1777665884829487537) 2024-04-09T11:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@YellowLabLife @canterbury_sid This is why I keep coming back to sizing $NRP bigger- less upside perhaps but that downside protection is just so attractive" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1777666216607289613) 2024-04-09T11:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks for adding A couple asks/suggestions: -Brokerage linking/position imports- Yahoo Finance and many others have this -Consistent currency conversion- one big issue with Yahoo is it does not convert currencies properly- so my DNO ASA (Oslo) adds $240k to my portfolio total when really it's only $240k NOK (equiv $20k USD) -Compounding that is that you cannot edit imported positions -You've got a bug with Last Price (e.g. NRP has shown as $32 and $3 when last price is $90)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1780057465163501639) 2024-04-16T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Love this too except I think @tradedollarnut is often mischaracterized as a bear when he usually just lays out possible scenarios which I greatly appreciate. Risk/reward probabilities shift with both met and equity price At the end of the day I haven't seen a comprehensive fundamental deficit case covering why supply can't expand from bear cases like Mongolia (they built one railway can't they build more Unwashed yes but wouldn't even unwashed lower-qual/high-vol supply affect prices if it's plentiful and cheap enough) and new mines (Ramaco ramped prod $HCC and $BTU clearly have supply" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1780831810446111051) 2024-04-18T05:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@tradedollarnut Put another way the producers are a bet on prices/supply/demand. But $NRP is a simpler bet - that met coal is here to stay. And that's one I'll gladly take for tax complexity + FCF yield between 10% (Covid lows) and 25% (LTM)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1780833781085241426) 2024-04-18T05:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Bought a 4% position in $MTTR here at $4.78 in my Roth/shorted 2% $CSGP. Don't see why this wouldn't go through and borrow fee on $CSGP is low/margin interest is tax-deductible" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1782431864319570162) 2024-04-22T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@elasticretreat @PythiaR Toronto is 46% income. Sales tax 13%. Still better than CA's or NY's 55% (37 fed + [----] CA/14.7 NY + 3.8% Obamacare) even better when you account for inclusion rate (proposal is to only count 66% of cap gains 250k up from 50%). US better for LTCG" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1782617559709393364) 2024-04-23T03:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "A little late but $NRP warrants are finally all gone. Just $72m preferreds (@ 12%) $150-200m credit facility (SOFR+3.5-4.5%) and $60m senior notes (5-6% fixed) left before distributions ramp. 12-18 months https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/1171486/000143774924012569/nrp20240416_8k.htm https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/1171486/000143774924012569/nrp20240416_8k.htm" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1784986680086421517) 2024-04-29T16:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@bhidesubodh1 They pay the special distribution (not a dividend- look up MLP distribution tax treatment) each Q1 (tax season) to cover unitholders' taxes. Since $NRP is an MLP net income earned is taxable income for unitholders on a K-1 issued by $NRP. Much of it is Sec [----] gains (LTCG)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1788095754315485342) 2024-05-08T06:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@tradedollarnut @kingdomcapadv @dyer440 Likely a) BC ramp is adding cost to Mine [--] [--] ops - sounds like at a min theyre hiring more - and/or b) that Warriors run-rate avg cost per ton will be lower once BCs lower costs/ton bring down the weighted average across mine [--] [--] BC" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1788470629576122842) 2024-05-09T07:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(1/9) 🧵Read through IEA's [----] Coal report published in Dec focusing on met coal sections. Great report with tons of market data thru 3Q23 for met/thermal coal. $HCC $AMR $NRP $BTU $METC @WHC @tradedollarnut @kingdomcapadv @respeculator @mfwarder @natstewart5 @YellowLabLife" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1790745039561486378) 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, 14.6K engagements "(2/9) (pg. 118-119) Full report link: Import/export market overview showing top importers/exporters of met coal by volume. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a72a7ffa-c5f2-4ed8-a2bf-eb035931d95c/Coal_2023.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a72a7ffa-c5f2-4ed8-a2bf-eb035931d95c/Coal_2023.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1790745042451329357) 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "(3/9) Mongolia with huge [----] prod increase. One bear case for met coal is combo of cont. inc Mongolian supply + new rail combined with Chinese peak capex bleeding Chinese seaborne demand. Met coal def partially a China beta/capex play" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1790745044909179272) 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "(4/9) (pg. 122) Looks like Mongolia's low-hanging fruit has been captured though Tavan Tolgoi Extension could add 10Mt but IEA has it at 2026+ for earliest start date. Sounds like they're still looking for financing let alone opening" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1790745047677513869) 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "(8/9) (pg. 123) Looking at coking coal project pipelines across US Europe Canada- basically none in the short-medium term besides our very own $HCC of course" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1790745059966832722) 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "(9/9) Overall think this report helps validate $NRP thesis core assumption (met coal is here to stay) and supports $HCC in the medium term as Blue Creek looks like it'll be one of the earliest new mines across known upcoming global supply. https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1780833781085241426 @tradedollarnut Put another way the producers are a bet on prices/supply/demand. But $NRP is a simpler bet - that met coal is here to stay. And that's one I'll gladly take for tax complexity + FCF yield between 10% (Covid lows) and 25% (LTM). https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1780833781085241426" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1790745062646952080) 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@manuginobili @samhinkie @AcquiredFM @djrosent @gilbert @FoundersPodcast He called this one the most inspiring autobiography he ever read- founder of Hyundai. Makes all other rags-to-riches founding stories sound like walks in the park: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5gBcHa2AvskKHtqeYHc0nX https://open.spotify.com/episode/5gBcHa2AvskKHtqeYHc0nX" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1791091419010170928) 2024-05-16T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@HappyDays528 @kingdomcapadv @tradedollarnut @vanckzhu @taobanker @loneelmcapital @YellowLabLife @LeahiCapital Yep distributions on your K-1 (per mine for 2023). Downside is unlike most MLPs they have no capex/D&A to offset NI. So until distributions ramp K-1 income is negative carry (neutral with annual Q1 special distro they do to offset taxes). https://investor.nrplp.com/Investor-relations/news/news-details/2024/Natural-Resource-Partners-L.P.-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023-Results-and-Announces-Special-Distribution-of-2.44-per-Common-Unit/default.aspx" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1791304625091698751) 2024-05-17T03:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Took a quick look at this and bought a 5% pos. How do I lose -$395m market cap (128m shares $3.1 USD/sh) -$26m total liabilities -$70m $SKWD stake (at close) -$177m cash (from 5/10 $SKWD placement) -$115m cash =rem. $60m EV for Arena stuff ($175m book) $WED.V $WEDXF Westaim $WED $WEDXF held its investor day yesterday. This opportunity remains so incredibly compelling from a risk / reward perspective. Management indicated that it will monetize the $150m FINCO investments. take roughly [--] months. Incl. the liquidation of the remaining https://t.co/ObhrbR1F06 Westaim $WED $WEDXF held its" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1793115294464156021) 2024-05-22T03:02Z [---] followers, 18.8K engagements "Been happily selling ITM puts on $NRP (see the Jan '24 100p volume- all me). Lets me avoid the negative carry (from MLP K-1 tax accrual) and earn theta in the meantime. with upside of getting a discount on more nominal exposure if it falls🥳" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1797638614861644176) 2024-06-03T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Reading through India election results- I absolutely think todays/yesterdays met moves were in anticipation of/in reaction to BJP expectations vs result. Key that theyll likely have to form a coalition- no more Modi unilaterally pushing industrial policy. $HCC $AMR $BTU $NRP" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1798047020533563862) 2024-06-04T17:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Been trading a bit. -Sold 40% of $HCC at $68-70 swapped for $NRP at $89 -Covered $AMR short today at $286 (regret not selling covered $HCC calls yesterday lol) -Bottom ticked $HCC today at $61.58 -Shorted more $CAVA yesterday at $97 but covered initial $88 cost tranche today" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1804192364048847293) 2024-06-21T16:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Overall China macro has me a bit spooked re: met coal. Happy to realize some cap gains for safer $NRP (on top of $140k nominal via short 100p/90p). $SG looking like the better short vs $CAVA which feels like a stronger flows beneficiary a la $CMG $WING (+ better fundamentals)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1804192365953060873) 2024-06-21T16:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Crazy met coal day. Best 1-day P/L ever (+4% NAV). Could only trade [--] hrs as I waited to summit Mt. Fuji but: -Resold $HCC covered calls -Reshorted $AMR to hedge $NRP/ $HCC -Bought more $NRP back to 20% NAV. Made zero sense to be flat on Grosvenor news; mkt agreed by close" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1808036077539918289) 2024-07-02T07:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "All in all happy to short $AMR/ $HCC calls to hedge my $HCC / $NRP common at these levels until I hit LTCG/the next tax year. Though the two cost me [--] bps by close 😅 View of sunrise at Mt. Fuji summit:" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1808036090496049190) 2024-07-02T07:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Think this is right. Bought $HCC Dec25 puts with delta covering 20% of my common ( $AMR short covers rest). Think with met prices here $HCC is reasonably priced. Just want to reach the new tax year and theta is cheap for the peace of mind. Rather capture met upside via $NRP. $HCC Seems like puts here are good r/r. Met back to pre-fire levels and India/China looking weak https://t.co/ONwY5ZXJsu $HCC Seems like puts here are good r/r. Met back to pre-fire levels and India/China looking weak https://t.co/ONwY5ZXJsu" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1812894489322922393) 2024-07-15T16:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@GHadjia Just did a quick skim of this and notice theres no mention of all the (increasing) SBC consistently issued by $MTCH. Think your assumption of 17% of shares retired is quite rosy given the $250m/yr issuance" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1813013731305267534) 2024-07-16T00:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Got first $LULU exposure- short a few ATM Jan '25 puts. Shopped for/bought several pieces yesterday for SO. The technical material innovation the excellent fit consistency across product lines that enables ARPU growth per new customer and the crazy customer loyalty = brand differentiation. easily the stock that's causing the most trouble for my portfolio in [----] despite starting to buy it after it went down 30% YTD. Well it's down 30% more since I started buying. At this point we need to go back to GFC to find a multiple lower than today's. VERY disappointing https://t.co/I7XPB0Z0VN easily" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1816738043501641880) 2024-07-26T07:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The $HCC theta is so worth it on days like this zero stress. I actually upped to 25% delta later that day. Cheers @jonclrichmond Think this is right. Bought $HCC Dec25 puts with delta covering 20% of my common ( $AMR short covers rest). Think with met prices here $HCC is reasonably priced. Just want to reach the new tax year and theta is cheap for the peace of mind. Rather capture met upside via $NRP. Think this is right. Bought $HCC Dec25 puts with delta covering 20% of my common ( $AMR short covers rest). Think with met prices here $HCC is reasonably priced. Just want to reach the new tax" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1819039578579251567) 2024-08-01T15:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@SauropodCapital I'm now up more across my 6% $AMR short and $HCC put/sold covered calls than my 10% $HCC common position w/ $41 basis 😅" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1823739055550406823) 2024-08-14T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thinking through a trade. I'm long [----] $HCC basis $41. On Jul 1/2 shorted [---] $AMR and sold covered calls; Jul [--] bought [--] $HCC Dec '25 90p to lock in gains for [----] sale. Short now up $17k but want to bet on a met bottom. So I just sold [--] $AMR Jun '25 210p for $5k" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1824117556883398964) 2024-08-15T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Outcomes: [--]. $AMR keeps falling my short keeps going up. [--]. If it REALLY falls get assigned the put at $210 ($185 basis) which then covers my short at a $26k gain. [--]. Met recovers lose short profits but my $HCC common gains (LTCG) plus I earn the put" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1824117558204633454) 2024-08-15T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Downsides: [--]. Caps hedge effectiveness on my $HCC common [--]. If I get assigned before EOY I get hit with STCG from the short in THIS tax year which I'm trying very hard to avoid" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1824117559362232662) 2024-08-15T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Highly recommend this truly great Michael Lewis piece on Chris Mark who developed industry standards to prevent mine roof falls leading to the 1st year (2016) of no roof fall deaths in the US. Moneyball for mine safety (really): $AMR $HCC $ARCH $BTU https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/michael-lewis-chris-marks-the-canary-who-is-government https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/michael-lewis-chris-marks-the-canary-who-is-government" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1831022004171845681) 2024-09-03T17:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Last of the $NRP prefs gone. Just the credit facility and low-cost debt left. Hope they wait to repay the debt at maturity (Dec 2026) and begin capital returns a quarter early instead. https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/1171486/000143774924028585/nrp20240827c_8k.htm https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/1171486/000143774924028585/nrp20240827c_8k.htm" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1832052014269845849) 2024-09-06T13:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Buying $DRX.to hand over fist here. They did $20m in FCF (OCF b4 WC minus capex even better if incl WC) last Q with 77m in TTM FCF before that And the EV at $11.5 CAD/sh is $311m AND they bought back 2.7m shares (8%) last Q What am I missing here" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1834238199155015861) 2024-09-12T14:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@BillyRa44191170 @natstewart5 @ragingbullcap Yep- [----] is the last 10-K with reserves. Tiffany Sammis $NRP's head of IR mentioned that's because the new requirements for reserves reporting became much more onerous after that year" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1834324724383465891) 2024-09-12T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$VSAT seems like a good short from here on runups given the Starlink-United news Look at that August runup. In 12M to 3/31/24: -688m CFO -1.5b capex in TTM -7b debt 700m due 2025/2b due 2026" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1834634980774867016) 2024-09-13T16:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@scalpavelli It's just momentum factor. sky's the limit for trading sardines https://x.com/nope_its_lily/status/1827029279097679911 https://x.com/nope_its_lily/status/1827029279097679911" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1847735477643698312) 2024-10-19T20:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@scalpavelli That said I'm short both $SG and $CAVA in proper hubristic fashion 😅" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1847735996932378935) 2024-10-19T20:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Here's a pic from their Apr '17 MD&A summarizing their results from the trailing [--] months to April [----] their last reported MD&A quarter. Not exactly great. That tiny dividend looks familiar (sidenote this kind of summary is wonderful)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1848136707339637057) 2024-10-20T22:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "So they had about 1.8b in TTM revenues about $560m book value at sale. Sold for 45m s/o * $12.30 or $550m equity value plus $315m in net debt for EV of $865m. Traded as low as $6/sh or $590m EV. https://www.investing.com/equities/canam-group-inc.-chart https://www.investing.com/equities/canam-group-inc.-chart" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1848136709554217428) 2024-10-20T22:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "tl;dr not exactly original but $CAM.to illustrates the cyclicality bear case everyone's been making. Market clearly thought $CAM.to deserved a cyclicality discount; why not $DRX.to You have to believe $DRX.to automation drives persistently higher margins/FCF that overcome both the natural lumpiness of results + the cyclicality of the business" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1848136712527991272) 2024-10-20T22:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JapanDeepValue1 It's not like the CCP would let Ferrotec do anything with proceeds though right It's just cash trapped in China" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1848574913604382852) 2024-10-22T03:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@nope_its_lily Same with $CAVA and $SG" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1849207466489417949) 2024-10-23T21:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Sold half my $GTX at $9.70 here wish Id caught the after-hours move to $10.50. Will hold the other half plus close my short puts pos after we see what the news is tomorrow (if there is any)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1849268040313032959) 2024-10-24T01:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PedroLamento I sold Mar '25 12p on $GEO for $1.53 with underlying at $12.71 and even after it went up to like $15.20 I could only buy back for $1.25. IV just wouldn't fall lol" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1849562061069533563) 2024-10-24T21:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@scalpavelli Closed these $LULU puts out and sold: -Mar [--] 80p $DG -Feb [--] 50p $VAL I dont like selling puts on high divs like $BTI. Rather buy the common and sell cc or something but you dont even really get much premium since IV is so low. Got first $LULU exposure- short a few ATM Jan '25 puts. Shopped for/bought several pieces yesterday for SO. The technical material innovation the excellent fit consistency across product lines that enables ARPU growth per new customer and the crazy customer loyalty = brand Got first $LULU exposure- short a few ATM Jan '25 puts. Shopped for/bought several" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1850192925675622450) 2024-10-26T15:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@tommytrxnh Dont know about best but Hanoi House is a classic. Make sure you get a resy though (not hard) or youll be in for a wait Saigon Shack great also usually a line but moves fast. Best to go during weekdays at lunch" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1850731118741328010) 2024-10-28T02:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JohnHuber72 @crowdturtle Also 60% of the $NRP MLP income comes in as LTCG (Section 1231- "Disposal or cutting of timber coal or iron ore"). But I don't think C-corps can take advantage of Section [----] - only pass-through entities. So C-corp would see higher 21% corp tax rate vs sec [----] cap gains" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1850743095387717886) 2024-10-28T03:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "But whats funnier is $42b will add nontrivial flows that could ACTUALLY move the $btc price a bit. Which further actualizes value (At $40b daily $btc volume $42b might not matter but who knows how real that volume is given the move when the German govt dumped just $1b.). (4/6)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1851863115673014698) 2024-10-31T05:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "But leaning into the absurdity Id argue $MSTRs literal best use of funds is memeworthy things Keeping memes going keeps the liquidity party going And whats more memeworthy than going all-in on $btc with the largest ATM of ALL time (6/6)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1851863117866615279) 2024-10-31T05:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Same thing with $SG It touched yesterdays closing price today intraday- after earnings with rev margin and SSS deceleration (I know because I had a limit order to short at $42.20 that filled). Everyone keeps saying momentum factor but it happens even without momentum 😂 Draft Kings was down 15% last night after hours and is now +4% on the day. What does this tell you about the composition of today's market participants Certainly tells us what we already know - fundamental investors with a time horizon are the minority which should create Draft Kings was down 15% last night after hours and is" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1855122130263826701) 2024-11-09T05:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@tclaugus2 How do you like $CE at these levels Seems like an overreaction to the dividend cut" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1856493457344536806) 2024-11-13T00:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "IMO the steelman to the "omg each restaurant is worth $50m" is: -$CMG has [----] stores as of 3Q24; $CAVA has [---] -Cava opened [--] stores in TTM for $111m in capex; $1.8m/store (assuming 100% of capex = new stores) -Cava is trading for 21.5% of Chipotle (1/4) I'm done $CAVA https://t.co/gvfPigxh03 I'm done $CAVA https://t.co/gvfPigxh03" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1856862372352463246) 2024-11-14T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "-To get to [---] stores (21.5% of $CMG's 3615) Cava needs to build [---] stores (777-352) which will cost 1.8*425=$765m. They can fund half that from cash on the balance sheet. They might have to raise some but at a $17b mcap an ATM wouldn't be that dilutive. (2/4)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1856862373979853314) 2024-11-14T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Imo the assumptions to challenge are: -Is $CMG worth its multiple -Can US really support [----] Cavas- does it have the same runway as Chipotle - Does time value of money matter anymore Build will take [--] years vs a 4.4% 10Y but it's priced as if it's already happened. -Will Cavas AUV (2.8m) catch CMGs (3.1m) (3/4)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1856862375993045203) 2024-11-14T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "tl;dr you don't see many opportunities with such immense runway to grow with such positive unit economics- with margins still improving I don't really agree with it (I'm short) but imo that's why $CMG and now $CAVA are being valued so highly. (4/4)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1856862377851183257) 2024-11-14T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NuggetCapital $CNQ a good trading sardine whenever it gets to around $30 US" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1857539984028312049) 2024-11-15T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This (probably staged) video is mostly a testament to the incredible ability of capitalism to reduce the price of non-Baumol effect goods over time Lower TV prices = streamers can afford TV destruction videos. Surplus for all https://t.co/vClEAKGsXY https://t.co/vClEAKGsXY" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1857813921538642359) 2024-11-16T15:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@W98AB @BisphamGreen How'd you think about TIPS in Oct [----] I picked up a bunch of 20-year TIPS then for a near-retirement family member when reals were at 2.5%. In retrospect wish I'd sized it bigger" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1860366218839884265) 2024-11-23T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Was just updating my $VAL memo when I got an email from CapEdge. Fredriksen up to 9.4% https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314808/000091957424006947/d11539129_13d-a.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314808/000091957424006947/d11539129_13d-a.htm" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1862609088481202191) 2024-11-29T21:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Happy to be wrong though if any marketers know: -Billboard ad pricing in SF over time (could be confounded if supply down though I hear billboards can be pretty regulated/supply constrained) -Any measurement of the effectiveness of billboards in terms of lead gen etc" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1862718333738447286) 2024-11-30T04:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For sure. But how can folks be confident that the source was OOH Wouldn't that attribution have to come from the customer- lower fidelity I suppose if that was Brex's only channel upon launch (given their limited budget) I could see them reasonably concluding it drove success" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1862722516445188132) 2024-11-30T04:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@dappermarketer sent me a great loom from a member of his @AdQuick team explaining how they do it- essentially what one would intuit is the only way- estimating some counterfactual baseline without the campaign and comparing real-world conversions to that counterfactual. https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1862722516445188132 https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1862722516445188132" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1862736016424997099) 2024-11-30T05:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Since this tweet long $NE short $VAL has done quite well Do not blindly fall into the higher profile investors hawking offshore drillers such as $VAL $RIG (again). The easy money in this trade was made a while ago (off the heels of a lot of restructuring) and at this point it's a much more difficult trade. I keep seeing people talk Do not blindly fall into the higher profile investors hawking offshore drillers such as $VAL $RIG (again). The easy money in this trade was made a while ago (off the heels of a lot of restructuring) and at this point it's a much more difficult trade. I keep seeing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1865147883726450849) 2024-12-06T21:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@hkuppy Appreciate the note on $CVX [----] capex budget- link here for others: https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2024/q4/chevron-announces-2025-capex-budget https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2024/q4/chevron-announces-2025-capex-budget" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1865809428613886439) 2024-12-08T17:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@W98AB Ha Giang is a magical experience if you have time. Highly recommend. Right up there (if not more) in majesty with the Grand Canyon. I preferred the jeep tour. Felt safer than the motorbikes" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1867409817440334320) 2024-12-13T03:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just caught up on $drx.to earnings call. Quick 🧵on main points (pasted transcript in a Google doc below for folks since it's hard to find online):" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1867423854190375347) 2024-12-13T04:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XU_ZuFdzPnFV7MngEJ_8sDx6_07np4ljjikjglQogOA/edittab=t.0 https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XU_ZuFdzPnFV7MngEJ_8sDx6_07np4ljjikjglQogOA/edittab=t.0" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1867423855561576763) 2024-12-13T04:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1. Paschini (CEO) was outright disgusted by the current EV/EBITDA multiple. "3x- it's a joke". Makes me optimistic they'll actually use the NCIB. [--]. Declined a $150m 8% margin Amazon contract to hold out for higher margins. Discipline. [--]. New contract to be announced by Feb" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1867423856958615631) 2024-12-13T04:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@VolTrder @Shipping_VIE Net positive: -Supply locked up for years. Tightens market for incremental demand. -Readthrough: day rates for 6G assets implies floor/higher rates for the 7G assets $VAL/$NE have" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1869177629812904320) 2024-12-18T00:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Anyways re-reading this post often also makes me wonder about the feasibility of being a pure value investor today. There is an argument you can make that in a world of so much liquidity value truly is a game of adverse selection" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1869200127430377598) 2024-12-18T01:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "If you have Buffett-like investing screens you're picking from the stocks that "magical thinking" and growth investors have already bid up. This includes some amazing asset-light compounding businesses like $DDOG or $CRWD which will always look expensive" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1869200129368154444) 2024-12-18T01:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Like what do value screens typically yield Cyclical capex/materials/resources/rate-sensitive financials. Or: RoW: Europe Japan China. Again adverse selection (at least the past decade)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1869200131268231526) 2024-12-18T01:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "That said it's not like there aren't opportunities out there. Look at $NRP. The numbers smacked you in the face but because it's an MLP because it was illiquid and because it's coal/non-ESG there was value" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1869200133151400280) 2024-12-18T01:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Does the ATL level of corp bond spreads seem insane to anyone else or is it just me I'm almost tempted to sell the corps bought for family in Oct [----] and buy treasuries until this blows out again" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1871621582483050604) 2024-12-24T18:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This + David's point about oil being propped up by the Ukraine war is the Occam's razor bear case for offshore. $VAL $TDW The counterpoint is that at current dayrates/utilization remaining players can generate FCF/buyback shares at 7-10% yields as consolidation occurs. $RIG was my biggest short this year. Something I got really right. That one was easier to have high conviction given the nonstop spam from the twitter bulls about how dumb my thesis was. My thesis is the same. Offshore was built for a world where OPEC controls the price of $RIG was my biggest short this year. Something I got" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1871645017112203315) 2024-12-24T19:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@tradedollarnut Bruce- curious why you're buying $ZIM in your 401k The 25% Israeli dividend tax hits hard- wouldn't it be nice to offset with the foreign tax credit in your taxable" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1872169507093094793) 2024-12-26T06:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@tradedollarnut Got it. Still think $ZIM a position better held in taxable If $1m tax advantaged and fully paid out as divs Israelis keep $250k. AND youd also have to pay taxes (I assume pre-tax) upon withdrawal. Whereas taxable gets foreign tax credit AND divs will be qualified" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1872416791663898912) 2024-12-26T22:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Built this ISO exercise AMT calculator with Claude/@AnthropicAI in just a few hours. Hopefully useful for any startup employees considering exercising their ISOs: It's an updated version of Erik Barbara (@reactorkinship)'s Github app. https://isoamtcalc.netlify.app/ https://isoamtcalc.netlify.app/" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1872790565022253474) 2024-12-27T23:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I wanted to update with 2024/25 tax brackets and add tooltips to show every calc step in detail- exemption amounts tax brackets and owed tax calcs so unfamiliar folks can: a) granularly understand how AMT works and b) actually verify/validate the calc output" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1872790566926467265) 2024-12-27T23:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@fahdananta Disagree with this- presumes that USDCAD hasnt topped- if anything I think the US10Y is more likely to bottom here than not and that would be + for CAD Folks that convert could be doing so at the USDCAD peak. Im buying TSX names as I see USDCAD from here as a tailwind LT" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1873111924646527473) 2024-12-28T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@nope_its_lily @GreenZenForest Why not Vancouver WA" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1873118565957812701) 2024-12-28T21:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Lol. Sold $VAL at $41.36 to tax loss harvest and switched into equiv delta Dec '26 75c at $5.30 (cheapest $/delta low IV- I was all the volume on Dec 17). Now calls up almost as much as my losses (though shares not back to my $45 basis) and delta higher. Pretty nice" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1874115921692017116) 2024-12-31T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "One thing I don't hear pro-immigration folks acknowledge is how fundamentally adversarial immigration is. Look I'm the son of a first-gen immigrant. My fiance is an immigrant. But if you want to change policy you have to first realize that any system you build can be exploited" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1874173728625734141) 2024-12-31T19:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@blondesnmoney Bought some $VIV yesterday. Partly a USD reversion partly because its at like a 10-year low and still growing" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1874261095122428154) 2025-01-01T01:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@blondesnmoney @iBladesi Yeah I dumped most of mine last time. Sad I was out tonight and missed it this time https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1849268040313032959 Sold half my $GTX at $9.70 here wish Id caught the after-hours move to $10.50. Will hold the other half plus close my short puts pos after we see what the news is tomorrow (if there is any). https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1849268040313032959 Sold half my $GTX at $9.70 here wish Id caught the after-hours move to $10.50. Will hold the other half plus close my short puts pos after we see what the news is tomorrow (if there is any)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1875045347422302531) 2025-01-03T05:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@fahdananta Well if you were remote for a US company you could 😅 That's like $350k USD below avg L3 Stripe PM comp" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1875386679613358309) 2025-01-04T03:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "One interesting co right in the middle of this is $SIG. @tclaugus2 mentioned 1.5y ago. Pretty volatile (and a great trading sardine for me). Talking to younger folks lab-grown diamonds are increasingly normal Feels over for the real thing https://t.co/pNITcJtNxx Talking to younger folks lab-grown diamonds are increasingly normal Feels over for the real thing https://t.co/pNITcJtNxx" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1878253971141259547) 2025-01-12T01:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I think a few battling factors: [--]. Lab-grown ultimately brings avg ticket size (and margins) down [--]. Vertical integration lets $SIG capture more of the (remaining) margin vs buying supply from miners Think $SIG does fine LT-people wanna see before they buy. I did last year 😁" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1878253973729128786) 2025-01-12T01:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Long $ZIM at $16.60 and wondering what I'm missing. So the recent price action is obviously a confluence of three events: -Ceasefire news (supposedly = Red Sea opening by Houthis) -Dockworkers' strike end -Chinese New Years" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1881021435378028790) 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "These events have been brutal to the share price- down 45% in a couple months. But here's the bull case: 1) Obviously the balance sheet (setting aside lease liabilities which I'll address later). $800m in investments and $1.5b in cash against a $2b market cap" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1881021437357740297) 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) You're also getting $4-5 in divs in March assuming they true-up like in 2023" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1881021446430114175) 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5) The real bull case though is that the Houthis don't stop on ceasefire news. Why would they They're making $180m/month off their racket. https://www.economist.com/interactive/international/2025/01/18/inside-the-houthis-moneymaking-machine https://www.economist.com/interactive/international/2025/01/18/inside-the-houthis-moneymaking-machine" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1881021448816677271) 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "So bull case: -Houthis don't really stop -Rates decay slower than expected -Analyst estimates for an already-done Q4 are clearly wrong and Q1 is half over (with pricing lag) -I get $4-5 back in divs in [--] months vs price of $16 (need to own this in taxable for foreign tax credit though)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1881021451454836940) 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Bear case: -Houthis do stop -Rates drop like a rock (even further than 4Q23) as Houthis stopping compounds the orderbook/oversupply problem because routes shorten on top of incoming supply -China/US trade war significantly affects container volumes" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1881021453849817562) 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@compoundpapi @irbezek @SevenSagesCap Ive followed it for years. If youre gonna buy worth buying the L shares. Same dividend for cheaper. I only owned it briefly because I realized there just wasnt and probably wouldnt ever be torque to the share price (and a low dividend yield)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1881340234597884007) 2025-01-20T13:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@InvestyMan @christankerfund @Pawlicker88 Breakdown of $ZIM capacity by trade route:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1882321635434443112) 2025-01-23T06:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yeah $tsla with bad earnings and ridic reaction but as long as liquidity keeps sloshing it'll get bid. Same with $pltr $ionq $achr (which I'm short). But looks like top is in- now just a waiting game. Even if liquidity persists it'll just slosh elsewhere (see $CAVA $SG)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1884809420879577316) 2025-01-30T03:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Agree with your post overall but there are weird inefficiencies out there like $GOOGL trading for years at a discount to $GOOG despite indices like $VTI allocating to both (in fact more to $GOOGL)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1889203055368778215) 2025-02-11T06:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$TDW is trading at 6x [----] FCF or 16-17% yield. 81% of next year's rev is already contracted. I bought more today and also bought calls. All the Jan '27 55c volume is me (stop adding IV please @ragingbullcap). GLTA Everyone knows the OFS market is pausing in [----] as oil majors digest existing projects. However they are planning to increase activity in [----]. $TDW is now trading for 7.8x [----] earnings estimates and 4.4x [----] FCF estimate. I am unaware of a cheaper stock besides $VAL. https://t.co/f17sy5O9ea Everyone knows the OFS market is pausing in [----] as oil majors digest existing projects." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1896717849298964553) 2025-03-04T00:22Z [---] followers, 28K engagements "@svanerkel @ragingbullcap Higher ongoing capex required = higher required threshold for FCF but the flip side is more prohibitively limited drillship supply. I think until dayrates go higher the drillers are more like LT OTM call options on offshore demand vs OSV. $TDW is ITM right now" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1896760933093142619) 2025-03-04T03:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@svanerkel @ragingbullcap That said it's not like I don't own and am not bagholding $VAL and $NE. I am 😁" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1896761928841936939) 2025-03-04T03:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$VAL Looks like Fredriksen added 805k shares- as of last Friday 2/28. New 13D showing hes at 10.56% ownership now" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897290365075620029) 2025-03-05T14:17Z [---] followers, 13.6K engagements "$VAL CEO Anton Dibowitz finally buys some shares. [----] at $33.90 or $254k. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314808/000031480825000041/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1741296196.xml https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314808/000031480825000041/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1741296196.xml" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897770723675885992) 2025-03-06T22:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@melkuo @fahdananta Man I leave Toronto for NY for one month and [---] shuts down Melody turns against it a trade war happens Carney passes Pierre P on Kalshi good thing Im finally back Sunday @davzhao" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1903208663302496479) 2025-03-21T22:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Zooming out my NW has 5x'd since I went active in [----] though inclusive of contributions equal my starting balance. Considering I was definitely an idiot investor in 2020/2021 pretty satisfied" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1906860290928771333) 2025-04-01T00:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I think I'm mostly concentrated beta. What alpha I had was mainly in [----] when I decided to believe JPow when he said he was gonna raise rates to fight inflation and traded accordingly. This ended up costing me as I didn't hold $META or $AMZN with conviction long enough" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1906860295118848454) 2025-04-01T00:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I'm still bearish. I've switched mostly defensive ( $DAC largest pos at 20% loaded up at $66-68) and cut $NRP to 15% post-rally after loading up sub-$90. Besides that I'm 20% cash and rest special sits: $HNRG for PP deal $SUP for the pref renegotiation $GLXZ $ENZ" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1912649126229028979) 2025-04-16T23:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$NRP a bit worrying. Shorted some $HCC. If this boils down to a China trade war met is gonna be in for more hurt. Good Q4 bc of Exxon's last carbon seq PMT but Q1 will be worse esp since Q1 seaborne pricing much worse than Q4's. $AMR and $METC do have domestic exposure though" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1912649127537557790) 2025-04-16T23:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "My main beta is $TDW which I sold all of at $36.50 on the rip and began to buy back in starting at $34. Watching shale for signs of prod decline. Switching pretty aggressively to a trading mentality on high-beta stocks like this and $ZIM as I did with megacaps in 2022" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1912649129127203145) 2025-04-16T23:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2) Argentina is probably okay with this because its essentially bringing USD-equivalent liquidity into Argentina. Their existing capital controls mainly stop liquidity out (ARS-USD). This would be stablecoin/USD-ARS" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1917827279310446634) 2025-05-01T06:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3) I guess Argentina is okay with folks using the Visa exchange rate over the official rate given Mercado Electronico exists At first I was confused- if this is sanctioned seems both a repudiation and (if adopted) diminution of the official rate" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1917827282133017019) 2025-05-01T06:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$NRP earnings lower as expected. Reporting before $AMR and $METC so dont have the lookthrough but this is trough FCF (I trimmed all higher cost lots bought $92- expected to be able to buy lower after today). $NRP a bit worrying. Shorted some $HCC. If this boils down to a China trade war met is gonna be in for more hurt. Good Q4 bc of Exxon's last carbon seq PMT but Q1 will be worse esp since Q1 seaborne pricing much worse than Q4's. $AMR and $METC do have domestic exposure though. $NRP a bit worrying. Shorted some $HCC. If this boils down to a China trade war met is gonna be in for more hurt." [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1919736448179118404) 2025-05-06T12:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@tradedollarnut Should have shorted" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1927474472426279307) 2025-05-27T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "One bright spot: love seeing the caps on student loans and especially the abolishment of Grad PLUS loans. For over [--] years since I worked in UNC's financial aid office I've been strongly against PLUS loans. Good riddance" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1942014710871658972) 2025-07-07T00:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "PLUS loans: -Had no caps: could take $100Ks to put yourself/parents in indentured servitude for life (not dischargeable by bankruptcy). -Created horrible incentives for universities encouraging infinite tuition raises. -Not to mention the atrocious 4.228% origination fee" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1942015072026402952) 2025-07-07T00:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Saw so many people pay w/ PLUS loans for private schools like Clemson instead of their (equally ranked and 1/5 price) state flagship because "Clemson was their dream school". And I guarantee USC's online social work program's $115k price tag will become a thing of the past" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1942016549998461022) 2025-07-07T00:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Still researching but I bought a chunk of $ELV Friday. Interest piqued when @jaysyoon pointed out commercial members account for 2/3 of their profits- yet its drawn down almost as much as $CNC a near pureplay managed care provider. I expect long/short would work well here. Healthcare is in pure panic territory. https://t.co/3eDXV89RqG Healthcare is in pure panic territory. https://t.co/3eDXV89RqG" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1946620317134123098) 2025-07-19T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Predicting near-term demand for P&A is tough because it's based on a decades-long aging well pyramid + more recent dry holes. Well intervention a bit better since driven by more recent wells (e.g. 2015-2020 vintage wells going into 1st/2nd workover windows)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1947013123510006215) 2025-07-20T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "But overall difficult. And not as sensitive to short-term offshore capex as the rig owners or OSV so the shale decline/offshore revitalization thesis won't accrue to $HLX as much near-term though it certainly will LT" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1947013124655075470) 2025-07-20T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "But outlook is good. Two drivers: 1) growing backlog/lockup of core WI fleet into LT higher-dayrate contracts (driven by limited supply esp as normal rigs become scarcer/even more expensive WI substitutes) and 2) the medium to long-term North Sea outlook" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1947013127381372970) 2025-07-20T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "North Sea (Seawell warm-stacking) drove the guide cut/recent bearishness but looking at the NSTA's [----] decom report it's clear there's a large North Sea P&A backlog that should drive demand for Seawell/Well Enhancer + associated robotics over the next [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1947013128564224138) 2025-07-20T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "They have $150m left on the auth (15% of mcap) and have had an entire quarter at these prices to buy at a 10-16% yield. If they didn't or did M&A big red flag. If they did think this will pop/is certainly a LT hold" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1947013132829839406) 2025-07-20T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Couple of sidenotes: -CEO Owen Kratz owns 5% of company and is [--] -Mgmt incentives to earn PSUs are 50% relative TSR (25/55/80th %ile for 3/100/200% of PSU payout) against peers and 50% FCF (275m/375m/475m for 0/100/200% PSU payout) over trailing 3Y" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1947066606346997968) 2025-07-20T22:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ArmsGarrett Why bother with an entirely managed care business when you can invest in $ELV for a similar multiple and way less managed care exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1947809396593201589) 2025-07-23T00:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Man watching $WEN and it's really being left for dead esp after US prez was passed over for CEO job and left Jul [--]. Is consumer down so bad This is probably trough Get they closed a bunch of units AND SSS dropped but the brand isn't dead or anything I like the food" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1950369016075424058) 2025-07-30T01:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@stoked_on_waves Yeah this is def right. Not to mention $SG $CAVA and $WING" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1950371321927344603) 2025-07-30T01:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@nuggy5 Ah- I shorted Jan [--] ATM puts here- I closed out after it rebounded later in [--] (the puts would have expired OOM). I still have an eye on the equity now thats its even lower but typically prefer to see it recover before I buy in" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1951271623786402128) 2025-08-01T13:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@FishtownCap just ran last Q's and this Q's $DAC report through o3 (and spot-checked) for extensions: -Suez Canal +2Y from Apr '26-Apr '28 -Juliet +1Y from Sep '25-Aug '26 -Dalian +2Y from Mar '26-Apr '28 -Monaco -3M from Dec '26-Sep '26 $CMRE rallying +5% today on good earnings $DAC is cheaper less levered has a 50% higher backlog for a similar EV. Looking forward to earnings Monday and seeing how many ships they've extended into 2028+ w/ the Harpex hitting weekly highs $CMRE rallying +5% today on good earnings $DAC is cheaper less levered has a 50% higher backlog for a similar EV. Looking" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952485283418484840) 2025-08-04T21:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Fin_Eng_Net Are you pointing to the seasonal A/R build from Q1 as $CROX having "major difficulties in generating cash" That was all from Q1. They had a net A/R release in Q2 and did $270m in FCF. The bear case here is unsustainable demand and margins not seasonal A/R build" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954581754880135291) 2025-08-10T16:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Asked o3 looks like this is incorrect the go-to acquisition approach in Israel is a reverse triangular merger which requires just a 50% majority. With such a fragmented $ZIM shareholder base unclear whether they'll even be able to get that. $ZIM Im getting a lot of questions about this - according to the Israeli law a tender offer for all of the companys outstanding shares has to get 95% approval from shareholders. You can find it in $ZIM annual report as well $ZIM Im getting a lot of questions about this - according to the Israeli law a tender offer for all of the companys outstanding shares" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954895959902900510) 2025-08-11T13:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@danielbraden18 @eli_glickman I sold a bunch. Bear case: -This is just a rumor thats unsubstantiated with an offer for another [--] months stock bleeds out -The deal wont actually even happen if it actually requires 95% (assume theyll do a merger to require only 50%)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1955310759048540178) 2025-08-12T16:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@danielbraden18 @eli_glickman I was oversized on it still have a regular sized position on. Also the sell was a trade because technically lets be honest $ZIM trades like shit and I thought itd go back down at some point lol" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1955311317297872949) 2025-08-12T16:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@firstadopter And $WEN and $JACK:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955453813491634364) 2025-08-13T02:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@LukeWolgram But look at the 3x sequential revenue growth Quantum is surely the future. That Oxford Ionics acquisition just has to go through and to the moon 🚀🚀🚀 (this is actually the primary bull case if you search $IONQ)" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1958027240274378829) 2025-08-20T04:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Sep + the tax-loss selling for $SRPT will be legendary" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960101196221296746) 2025-08-25T22:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Pretty great $CYTK MAPLE-HCM results excited for Tuesday 6% pos for me (8% across IBKR accounts). This fell so much from post-SEQUOIA-HCM results/ $NVS acq that the r/r seemed great biotech has such crazy schizophrenic moves given little change in fundamentals" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1962153843015233678) 2025-08-31T14:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Great call. Upped $AIV to a 9% pos at $7.42 and trimmed my highest-cost lot ($7.67) after-hours given so overweight $AIV is gonna declare a 4$ div and maybe monkeys bid the press release and you make some $. maybe they don't. you probably don't lose too much if that happens. $AIV is gonna declare a 4$ div and maybe monkeys bid the press release and you make some $. maybe they don't. you probably don't lose too much if that happens" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1967801569686294953) 2025-09-16T04:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "70% of H1Bs are awarded to Indians today. Tons of abuse from Tata and Infosys to crowd the funnel with their applicants. As a result the overall H1B lottery success rate was only 20% in recent years" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1969437189030207994) 2025-09-20T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Obvs lottery still inferior to a more meritocratic system but this is a huge improvement: removal of abuse by Indian contractor companies. Young intl students paying to study here and who assimilated for [--] years much more deserving than $INFY Tata and other abusers imo" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1969437190712086721) 2025-09-20T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Ok I couldn't resist bought some $WEN at $9.12 Man watching $WEN and it's really being left for dead esp after US prez was passed over for CEO job and left Jul [--]. Is consumer down so bad This is probably trough Get they closed a bunch of units AND SSS dropped but the brand isn't dead or anything I like the food. Man watching $WEN and it's really being left for dead esp after US prez was passed over for CEO job and left Jul [--]. Is consumer down so bad This is probably trough Get they closed a bunch of units AND SSS dropped but the brand isn't dead or anything I like the food" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1970616991619915949) 2025-09-23T22:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "One Q is the debt. ChatGPT returned a net -$30.8m (assuming $DPZ-equiv coupons) after-tax FCF impact (-42.5m pre-tax) once everything thru [----] refi'd. -$62.7m/-86.5m if all debt refi'd at conservative 6.72%. That still leaves a lot of FCF to be generated thru 2032" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1970617189645312052) 2025-09-23T22:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I asked it to output assumptions- e.g. UST rate it's using as comp + assumed corp spread for $WEN: -7.00% Debentures due Dec [----] $49.3m Current 7.000% assumed 4.93% = 5-yr UST 3.59% + 1.34% spread interest: $1.0m pre-tax $0.7m after-tax (benefit). -2019-1 A-2-I (ARD 2026) $351.7m Current 3.783% assumed 4.93% = 5-yr UST 3.59% + 1.34% spread interest: +$4.0m pre-tax +$2.9m after-tax. -2018-1 A-2-II (ARD 2028) $434.0m Current 3.884% assumed 5.217% = 7-yr UST 3.80% + 1.417% spread interest: +$5.8m pre-tax +$4.2m after-tax. -2019-1 A-2-II (ARD 2029) $396.4m Current 4.080% assumed 5.217% = 7-yr" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1970619559703969819) 2025-09-23T22:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Tabrizi invented the Huntingtons Disease Integrated Staging System (HD-ISS). And on the call she was confident that AMT-130 could be used across all [--] stages with an up to 20-40k addressable market" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1970887392321269849) 2025-09-24T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$QURE cited [----] immediately addressable patients in the US. Say $1m per treatment (thinking about $SRPT Elevidys pricing for DMD). $6b market. At $37 trading at $2.5b or 0.4x potential sales. Intl market even better (though probably $CLPT presence globally is smaller)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970887395089498129) 2025-09-24T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Really worth a read for the most compelling cautious take Ive seen re: $QURE results. Today UniQure ( $QURE ) announced the [--] yr readout findings of their gene therapy trial for Huntington's disease (HD). At the bottom line the company reports a statistically significant reduction of disease progression (75%) compared to an external propensity matched https://t.co/DZuncuhfgR Today UniQure ( $QURE ) announced the [--] yr readout findings of their gene therapy trial for Huntington's disease (HD). At the bottom line the company reports a statistically significant reduction of disease progression" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1972097554692428085) 2025-09-28T00:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "I will add that the remaining [--] high-dose $QURE patients whose results werent included in the June [--] cutoff may be reported in the coming months and are definitely a wildcard if they dont affirm readout results" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1972177891028095008) 2025-09-28T05:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Believe below is the most recent interview (10/3) Sarah Tabrizi (AMT-130 KOL) has given since $QURE readout. This video literally only has [---] views: alpha Been scouring for bear cases as I have 30% of my NW in this and it presents two: 🧵 https://youtu.be/cXsrYM2Fq7gt=3001 https://youtu.be/cXsrYM2Fq7gt=3001" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1974516430176682084) 2025-10-04T16:46Z [---] followers, 27.5K engagements "1. Liam Gray one of first to train on AMT-130 procedure took between 12-20 hours to administer compared to the typical 7-hour procedures that neurosurgeons are used to. Obvs this may come down with repetition and training but worth mentioning" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1974516431946682517) 2025-10-04T16:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "She suggests that as a result administration may be limited to centers that can deliver complex neurosurgeries. If true this would affect both ramp time and peak treatments/year. But one question: does $CLPT make this faster- did Liam Gray do it using $CLPT @A_May_MD" [X Link](https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1974516433347645716) 2025-10-04T16:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "One thing I have been mulling is if $CLPT is literally part of the label for $QURE AMT-130 how much pricing power do they have/could this materially affect AMT-130 margins Worth considering for the steelman. This idea that $clpt is going to forever have some miniscule take rate from gene therapies isn't going to last. Once regulatory hurdles for a sufficient number of new drugs have been cleared need will be substantially greater than the actual capacity to perform the surgeries. This idea that $clpt is going to forever have some miniscule take rate from gene therapies isn't going to last." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1974542965076090946) 2025-10-04T18:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "re: $CLPT. No dog in the fight but here's why I don't own it. [--]. I agree $QURE has de-risked $CLPT LT. But I think there is path risk from here to AMT-130 launch in [----] which will itself take time to ramp. I could absolutely see $CLPT with a 50% drawdown between now and launch. Look at the chart. It's happened before. Think you have to have durable conviction/the appropriate LT hold style to be buying/owning here. [--]. The Shay Boloors of the world are pumping it now. So there's a degree of momentum factor in it (which absolutely may continue and juice your returns). Totally fair bet to make" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1974614375437664558) 2025-10-04T23:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@johnkmason John Mason
John Mason posts on X about $qure, $nrp, $hcc, $amr the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---] #
- [--] Week [-----] +4.70%
- [--] Month [---------] +778%
- [--] Months [---------] +7,181%
- [--] Year [---------] +4,275%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] +21%
- [--] Months [---] +326%
- [--] Year [---] +62%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.40%
- [--] Months [-----] +47%
- [--] Year [-----] +91%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks cryptocurrencies technology brands countries social networks travel destinations currencies automotive brands fashion brands
Social topic influence $qure, $nrp, $hcc, $amr, market, in the, debt, $val, met, $clpt
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @tradedollarnut @amaymd @ab1001disciple @kingdomcapadv @stokedonwaves @alvaro6v @natstewart5 @yellowlablife @ragingbullcap @petermantas @w98ab @brexhq @biohazard3737 @respeculator @taobanker @loneelmcapital @tclaugus2 @mfwarder @scalpavelli @fahdananta
Top assets mentioned uniQure N.V. (QURE) Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) Validity (VAL) ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) Abivax SA (ABVX) CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Spruce Biosciences, Inc. (SPRB) Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (ATMU) Tidewater, Inc. (TDW) Sweetgreen Inc. (SG) Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT) Ramaco Resources, Inc. Common Stock (METC) Cummins Inc. (CMI) Danaos Corporation (DAC) WEN Token (WEN) Intellia Therapeutics, Inc (NTLA) Common Wealth (WLTH) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Noble Corporation (NE) Transocean LTD. (RIG) Superp (SUP)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@DesatCap Sorry for the beginner question but I dont understand the attractiveness of $VZ. $17b in FCF for [----] and at a $315b EV. Why is a 5.3% FCF yield attractive Terminal value for the operating assets or just valuing it on EV/EBITDA like other telecom"
X Link 2023-08-04T19:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@OtterMarket $NRP is a good example of this. They really found religion back in the mid-2010s and have been incredibly disciplined about delevering since. Just $86m in $BX prefs $50m in warrants and the credit facility (mainly accrued to payoff prefs) left"
X Link 2023-09-14T03:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@SpreadThread1 @rydehedgefund If spreads blew out wouldnt that reflect something breaking (and the Fed lowering rates in response) Though I suppose it could be a bear steepener and long end rates remain elevated as the fed cuts- is that the scenario you anticipate"
X Link 2023-10-30T02:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Still a ways for chatGPT to go. request to parse PDF of $UNTC Q2 results failed entirely (tbf it's a large file). Then I tried asking for a replica of a screenshot of the specific table which went through but outputted nonsense:"
X Link 2023-11-10T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NRP is now my largest position (20%). What am I missing -Soda ash: let's assume a reversion to [----] distro of $31m. $43m+ 2015-18 [--]. -Minerals: Say we permanently return to 2020's $73m (87m OCF minus the soda ash distro). -Add $28m for reduced interest expense vs '20"
X Link 2023-11-14T02:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@respeculator looking at the Wood Mackenzie report pretty noticeable they omit Mongolia which IEA had at [--] Mt in [----] and estimated [--] Mt in 2023"
X Link 2023-11-18T06:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HCC $NRP $AMR $WHC https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/YQ*0/futures-prices If you're wondering why China can sustain the biggest naval build up in the world. Well here are workers in a shipyard in Jiangsu finishing their shifts. https://t.co/gsZY6cni7D https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/YQ*0/futures-prices If you're wondering why China can sustain the biggest naval build up in the world. Well here are workers in a shipyard in Jiangsu finishing their shifts. https://t.co/gsZY6cni7D"
X Link 2023-11-26T02:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DakotasTwits @BoxLongs Part of it is their federal vs state mix isn't it I looked at these back when Burry picked it up a couple years ago and $CXW outperformed (temporarily) amid fears of Biden admin ending $GEO contracts. $CXW is more insulated from broad federal action"
X Link 2023-11-28T19:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@evfcfaddict Are you concerned at all about the unusual capex this Q They barely mentioned it in the discussion notes and not at all in the earnings call even though it ate up 60% of OCF"
X Link 2023-12-01T05:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@taobanker Sympathize. I went with $EVO.ST last month for quality. Happy to take a 6% FCF yield with high teens growth and good capital allocation (besides slots acq). Also CEO's large purchases always seem to mark bottoms"
X Link 2023-12-07T06:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Pre-bankruptcy common's warrants have $63.74 strike. Assuming prior bear case was poor capital allocation with BS cash (acq etc) warrants could now go ITM. curious why Prescott/Frohlich risked dilution vs dribble out divvies to avoid spikes a la Jan '23. $UNTC Merry Christmas from $UNTC https://t.co/PnKfsR3X7O Merry Christmas from $UNTC https://t.co/PnKfsR3X7O"
X Link 2023-12-09T01:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DeckoDeck903 @kingdomcapadv I'd rather they obliterate warrants by making sure they expire OTM on Sep [--] 2027"
X Link 2023-12-09T01:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For #1 see the I/S on page [--] of the [----] annual report: For #2 see the 3/16/23 press release: Q4 cost of products ($936k) and SG&A ($2m) alone get them to $2.9m. I suppose the NI # could be from Q4 tax recovery from NOLs"
X Link 2023-12-19T19:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@loneelmcapital @bhallcpa When you combine 401k with IRA rollovers and Roth conversion (to pick when to pay tax and in which bracket) it's pretty worthwhile. I had a family member convert just enough Trad IRA-Roth to take them to the top of the 12% tax bracket for [--] yrs. Great tax minimization tool"
X Link 2023-12-29T05:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Listed returns conservatively assume deposits available at beginning of year (in denominator). Time-weighted not available as I switched back and forth between Fidelity/IBKR last year AND this year"
X Link 2023-12-30T05:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Not displayed: 1% shorts on $MDB $IOT $FLNC $DCBO (double dipping on the tender offer)"
X Link 2023-12-30T05:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Began actively investing [----]. Have learned SO much from folks here - really really appreciate you all. 2023: 28.21% (portfolio) vs. 26.29% (SP500) 2022: 5.62% vs. -18.11% 2021: 31.61% vs. 28.71% 2020: 26.46% vs. 18.4% EOY Port: $NRP $HCC $CZBS $CPHRF $EPSN $UNTC $AMR $EVVTY"
X Link 2023-12-30T16:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Listed returns conservatively assume deposits/savings available at beginning of year (in denominator). Time-weighted not available as I switched back and forth between Fidelity/IBKR last year AND this year"
X Link 2023-12-30T16:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Not displayed: 1% shorts on $MDB $IOT $FLNC $DCBO (double dipping on the tender offer)"
X Link 2023-12-30T16:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@PlanMaestro For Chinese stocks Id feel more comfortable if the dividend yield was MUCH higher vs buybacks. Of course the buybacks at current FCF yield are more accretive but in case Xi decides to take my money Id rather at least have the divvies in my pocket"
X Link 2024-01-06T21:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@GavinSBaker UTR is a startup that brought Elo to tennis It's high fidelity enough that HS prospects can email college coaches their UTR profile and that can be sufficient to get a look"
X Link 2024-01-14T23:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@tclaugus2 Apple has made it easier to pay via Apple Pay on mobile whether in-app or in mobile web. I've definitely seen Square storefront sites offer the ability to pay via Apple Pay (but also Paypal and Google Pay) for example"
X Link 2024-01-16T19:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Looks like $NRP warrantholders are beginning to exercise. In the Feb [--] 8-K NRP reported 1.08m warrants outstanding after purchasing [------] down from 1.54m per the Oct [--] 8-K. So warrantholders exercised 261k (1.54m-1.08m-198767) no doubt contributing to today's selling"
X Link 2024-02-06T20:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Sorry was wrong- [------] new shares for $NRP warrantholders as of Feb [--] (+$10m to cover the difference in value of the [------] warrants) likely contributing to today's selling. Love seeing these 8-Ks as they're effectively buybacks. @johnkmason That is not what happened. [------] were exercised. NRP settled the warrants on a net basis with $10 million incash and [------] common units. [------] wts * (97.62-34) = 29.4M in value. Warrant holders recv'd $10 million + [------] * [-----] = 29.4M @johnkmason That is not what happened. [------] were exercised. NRP settled the warrants on a net basis with $10"
X Link 2024-02-07T00:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"-9/18/23 ($78.67 closing price): 812.5k warrants repurchased by $NRP for $33.6m. Effectively $64.99/sh (weighted avg of $22.81/$34 warrants) -10/6/23 ($75.64): 300k $34 warrants for $11.4m. Eff $72/sh. -10/26/23 ($66.25): 350k $34 warrants for $11.1m. Eff $65.71/sh"
X Link 2024-02-07T00:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@crowdturtle Given $NRP bought/immediately retired the last [--] times I assume the warrantholders wanted to try their luck. if they were part of today's volume I'm sure they regret it assuming $NRP offered them the $97.62 15-day VWAP price"
X Link 2024-02-07T01:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@calvinfroedge $PXT.TO just looks a lot less FCF generative vs. $GPRK off a much larger market cap. So much capex Am comfortable with the higher-leverage $GPRK given low fixed cost of debt (5.5%)"
X Link 2024-02-22T20:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Sold my $AMR here. Bought a 2% pos at $165 last August. Happy to hedge my much larger $HCC and $NRP positions here at 10x FCF/for $1400 more ST tax. 165% gain (on 2%) vs my more modest 50% $HCC gain (on 15%) over the same period sadly. Buybacks buybacks buybacks"
X Link 2024-02-26T17:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ultradeepa Appreciate the concern I am okay taking some met exposure off here. I have huge (25% NW) overall exposure to met coal and: [--]. $AMR with its high-volume lower-margin coal is particularly sensitive to met coal prices [--]. I still have implicit AMR exposure via $NRP"
X Link 2024-02-26T18:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Picked up a 2% pos of $METCL. Senior Note/preferred by $METC. Basically a simple bet on when theyll call (past 7/30/23 call date). If they call before the next divvy date (4/30) I lose $25.48 (my basis) - $25 - accrued interest. Otherwise paid 9% to wait"
X Link 2024-03-01T19:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Took a quick look this weekend at the interesting $CMI $ATMU odd lot special sit. Posting now that tender is closed/borrow cost won't spike more (hopefully)"
X Link 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"First the juice from the squeeze. Bought [--] $CMI for avg $270 $26730. 7% discount is $28743 of $ATMU value. $2013 baseline profit. Form S-4 here: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001921963/11a2b253-e331-420c-9371-34505b853508.pdf https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001921963/11a2b253-e331-420c-9371-34505b853508.pdf"
X Link 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"But have to layer on two sensitivities: [--]. Biggest: $CMI $ATMU conversion ratio. Averaging Dates per S-4 were Mar [--] [--] [--]. Per Tradingview Monday's VWAP for $CMI was $269.19; for $ATMU $24.48. So a 11x conversion ratio (though Mar 7-8 VWAPs likely brought this up)"
X Link 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This sensitivity is crucial. If you buy $CMI at $270 and short $ATMU at $23.25 (prices I got pre-market Monday RIP) you're betting on a conversion ratio of [----]. But if you only get [----] $ATMU per $CMI upon conversion you'll have to cover the leftover [---] $ATMU for $1700"
X Link 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2. $ATMU borrow cost to hedge. IBKR had cost at 78% at buy + max 6.83% margin. Call it 85%. Borrow cost/day of $67 implies a max # of days for execution to occur to breakeven"
X Link 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So I'll get [----] shares of $ATMU to cover my short plus some extra to sell. Now just hope they don't take too long to execute the tender and eat it all up with borrow fees"
X Link 2024-03-13T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"One more (wistful) note. At some points this week the $CMI to $ATMU ratio was trading at the low 10xs. Envious of anyone who sold short there having to sell short fewer shares (lower margin) and realizing a 12x conversion ratio (thus receiving more excess shares to sell)"
X Link 2024-03-14T00:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Nice. Thought market's earnings reaction last week didn't make sense so I upped from 2-3% pos. CF b4 changes in WC above $40m for 2nd Q in a row and Double E throughput continuing to rise. Too bad I couldn't size up more. Just had to risk manage given mgmt's history. $SMLP concludes strategic review. 8x EBITDA for a mediocre asset. Still own highest quality asset EE. Now with strategic flexibility to maximize unit price. Cap structure cleanup and capital returns in sight. https://t.co/jljd0fLL0w $SMLP concludes strategic review. 8x EBITDA for a mediocre asset. Still own highest quality asset"
X Link 2024-03-22T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Credit to @natstewart5 for the flag. Highly highly recommend following him- his picks have been fantastic over the past year including $NRP at $45 and $NLOP at $15"
X Link 2024-03-22T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@startagl063 But yes its been very helpful. Not much coverage out there on an illiquid highly levered MLP"
X Link 2024-03-22T19:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Took a quick look at $SMLP today post-transaction. A few notes: (1/6) Sold Utica to $MPLX for $625m. This comprises the majority of their "Northeast" segment- Summit Utica and Ohio Gathering but excluding Mountaineer Midstream"
X Link 2024-03-25T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(2/6) [----] Adj EBITDA guidance revised from $260-300m to $185-220m. Means implied Adj EBITDA of Utica divestiture was 75-80m. So sold at 7.8-8.3x multiple. https://summitmidstreampartnerslp.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/summit-midstream-partners-lp-announces-sale-utica-position-625 https://summitmidstreampartnerslp.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/summit-midstream-partners-lp-announces-sale-utica-position-625"
X Link 2024-03-25T22:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(3/6) Prior to txn $SMLP closed at $19.64/sh or about $1.9b EV- a 6.4-7.4x EV/Adj EBITDA. Closed at $27.59 today for an EV of about $2b $1.37b after the txn. So using the $185-220m guidance trading for 6.2x-7.4x EV/Adj EBITDA post-transaction"
X Link 2024-03-25T22:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(5/6) That said bear case is: -Management signaled more potential bolt-on acquisitions in the future as they did in late [----] -Huge debt maturity upcoming in '26 across ABL facility new [----] senior notes and [----] secured notes (which will likely be refi'd at higher rate)"
X Link 2024-03-25T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(6/6) Market basically saying "good job but we still don't believe in you/your debt" to $SMLP management. Can't say I strongly disagree. Will take gain and walk- prior to this update bet was "strategic review special sit" but now becomes "bet on mgmt/debt refi.""
X Link 2024-03-25T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BichonRedux How about selling puts on high-conviction positions Ive sold puts on some of my longs (e.g. $NRP) that have run a bit but that Im happy to buy lower. Obviously still multiplies my tail risk on the stock. But fine having done the work"
X Link 2024-03-31T00:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@YellowLabLife @canterbury_sid I'm just thinking sensitivities- in the most pessimistic long-term pricing scenario (which [----] futures are pricing right now) what are $HCC margins even incl BC And what would you value it at there"
X Link 2024-04-09T11:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@YellowLabLife @canterbury_sid This is why I keep coming back to sizing $NRP bigger- less upside perhaps but that downside protection is just so attractive"
X Link 2024-04-09T11:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks for adding A couple asks/suggestions: -Brokerage linking/position imports- Yahoo Finance and many others have this -Consistent currency conversion- one big issue with Yahoo is it does not convert currencies properly- so my DNO ASA (Oslo) adds $240k to my portfolio total when really it's only $240k NOK (equiv $20k USD) -Compounding that is that you cannot edit imported positions -You've got a bug with Last Price (e.g. NRP has shown as $32 and $3 when last price is $90)"
X Link 2024-04-16T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Love this too except I think @tradedollarnut is often mischaracterized as a bear when he usually just lays out possible scenarios which I greatly appreciate. Risk/reward probabilities shift with both met and equity price At the end of the day I haven't seen a comprehensive fundamental deficit case covering why supply can't expand from bear cases like Mongolia (they built one railway can't they build more Unwashed yes but wouldn't even unwashed lower-qual/high-vol supply affect prices if it's plentiful and cheap enough) and new mines (Ramaco ramped prod $HCC and $BTU clearly have supply"
X Link 2024-04-18T05:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@tradedollarnut Put another way the producers are a bet on prices/supply/demand. But $NRP is a simpler bet - that met coal is here to stay. And that's one I'll gladly take for tax complexity + FCF yield between 10% (Covid lows) and 25% (LTM)"
X Link 2024-04-18T05:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Bought a 4% position in $MTTR here at $4.78 in my Roth/shorted 2% $CSGP. Don't see why this wouldn't go through and borrow fee on $CSGP is low/margin interest is tax-deductible"
X Link 2024-04-22T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@elasticretreat @PythiaR Toronto is 46% income. Sales tax 13%. Still better than CA's or NY's 55% (37 fed + [----] CA/14.7 NY + 3.8% Obamacare) even better when you account for inclusion rate (proposal is to only count 66% of cap gains 250k up from 50%). US better for LTCG"
X Link 2024-04-23T03:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"A little late but $NRP warrants are finally all gone. Just $72m preferreds (@ 12%) $150-200m credit facility (SOFR+3.5-4.5%) and $60m senior notes (5-6% fixed) left before distributions ramp. 12-18 months https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/1171486/000143774924012569/nrp20240416_8k.htm https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/1171486/000143774924012569/nrp20240416_8k.htm"
X Link 2024-04-29T16:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bhidesubodh1 They pay the special distribution (not a dividend- look up MLP distribution tax treatment) each Q1 (tax season) to cover unitholders' taxes. Since $NRP is an MLP net income earned is taxable income for unitholders on a K-1 issued by $NRP. Much of it is Sec [----] gains (LTCG)"
X Link 2024-05-08T06:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@tradedollarnut @kingdomcapadv @dyer440 Likely a) BC ramp is adding cost to Mine [--] [--] ops - sounds like at a min theyre hiring more - and/or b) that Warriors run-rate avg cost per ton will be lower once BCs lower costs/ton bring down the weighted average across mine [--] [--] BC"
X Link 2024-05-09T07:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(1/9) 🧵Read through IEA's [----] Coal report published in Dec focusing on met coal sections. Great report with tons of market data thru 3Q23 for met/thermal coal. $HCC $AMR $NRP $BTU $METC @WHC @tradedollarnut @kingdomcapadv @respeculator @mfwarder @natstewart5 @YellowLabLife"
X Link 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, 14.6K engagements
"(2/9) (pg. 118-119) Full report link: Import/export market overview showing top importers/exporters of met coal by volume. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a72a7ffa-c5f2-4ed8-a2bf-eb035931d95c/Coal_2023.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a72a7ffa-c5f2-4ed8-a2bf-eb035931d95c/Coal_2023.pdf"
X Link 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(3/9) Mongolia with huge [----] prod increase. One bear case for met coal is combo of cont. inc Mongolian supply + new rail combined with Chinese peak capex bleeding Chinese seaborne demand. Met coal def partially a China beta/capex play"
X Link 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"(4/9) (pg. 122) Looks like Mongolia's low-hanging fruit has been captured though Tavan Tolgoi Extension could add 10Mt but IEA has it at 2026+ for earliest start date. Sounds like they're still looking for financing let alone opening"
X Link 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(8/9) (pg. 123) Looking at coking coal project pipelines across US Europe Canada- basically none in the short-medium term besides our very own $HCC of course"
X Link 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"(9/9) Overall think this report helps validate $NRP thesis core assumption (met coal is here to stay) and supports $HCC in the medium term as Blue Creek looks like it'll be one of the earliest new mines across known upcoming global supply. https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1780833781085241426 @tradedollarnut Put another way the producers are a bet on prices/supply/demand. But $NRP is a simpler bet - that met coal is here to stay. And that's one I'll gladly take for tax complexity + FCF yield between 10% (Covid lows) and 25% (LTM). https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1780833781085241426"
X Link 2024-05-15T14:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@manuginobili @samhinkie @AcquiredFM @djrosent @gilbert @FoundersPodcast He called this one the most inspiring autobiography he ever read- founder of Hyundai. Makes all other rags-to-riches founding stories sound like walks in the park: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5gBcHa2AvskKHtqeYHc0nX https://open.spotify.com/episode/5gBcHa2AvskKHtqeYHc0nX"
X Link 2024-05-16T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@HappyDays528 @kingdomcapadv @tradedollarnut @vanckzhu @taobanker @loneelmcapital @YellowLabLife @LeahiCapital Yep distributions on your K-1 (per mine for 2023). Downside is unlike most MLPs they have no capex/D&A to offset NI. So until distributions ramp K-1 income is negative carry (neutral with annual Q1 special distro they do to offset taxes). https://investor.nrplp.com/Investor-relations/news/news-details/2024/Natural-Resource-Partners-L.P.-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023-Results-and-Announces-Special-Distribution-of-2.44-per-Common-Unit/default.aspx"
X Link 2024-05-17T03:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Took a quick look at this and bought a 5% pos. How do I lose -$395m market cap (128m shares $3.1 USD/sh) -$26m total liabilities -$70m $SKWD stake (at close) -$177m cash (from 5/10 $SKWD placement) -$115m cash =rem. $60m EV for Arena stuff ($175m book) $WED.V $WEDXF Westaim $WED $WEDXF held its investor day yesterday. This opportunity remains so incredibly compelling from a risk / reward perspective. Management indicated that it will monetize the $150m FINCO investments. take roughly [--] months. Incl. the liquidation of the remaining https://t.co/ObhrbR1F06 Westaim $WED $WEDXF held its"
X Link 2024-05-22T03:02Z [---] followers, 18.8K engagements
"Been happily selling ITM puts on $NRP (see the Jan '24 100p volume- all me). Lets me avoid the negative carry (from MLP K-1 tax accrual) and earn theta in the meantime. with upside of getting a discount on more nominal exposure if it falls🥳"
X Link 2024-06-03T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Reading through India election results- I absolutely think todays/yesterdays met moves were in anticipation of/in reaction to BJP expectations vs result. Key that theyll likely have to form a coalition- no more Modi unilaterally pushing industrial policy. $HCC $AMR $BTU $NRP"
X Link 2024-06-04T17:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Been trading a bit. -Sold 40% of $HCC at $68-70 swapped for $NRP at $89 -Covered $AMR short today at $286 (regret not selling covered $HCC calls yesterday lol) -Bottom ticked $HCC today at $61.58 -Shorted more $CAVA yesterday at $97 but covered initial $88 cost tranche today"
X Link 2024-06-21T16:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Overall China macro has me a bit spooked re: met coal. Happy to realize some cap gains for safer $NRP (on top of $140k nominal via short 100p/90p). $SG looking like the better short vs $CAVA which feels like a stronger flows beneficiary a la $CMG $WING (+ better fundamentals)"
X Link 2024-06-21T16:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Crazy met coal day. Best 1-day P/L ever (+4% NAV). Could only trade [--] hrs as I waited to summit Mt. Fuji but: -Resold $HCC covered calls -Reshorted $AMR to hedge $NRP/ $HCC -Bought more $NRP back to 20% NAV. Made zero sense to be flat on Grosvenor news; mkt agreed by close"
X Link 2024-07-02T07:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"All in all happy to short $AMR/ $HCC calls to hedge my $HCC / $NRP common at these levels until I hit LTCG/the next tax year. Though the two cost me [--] bps by close 😅 View of sunrise at Mt. Fuji summit:"
X Link 2024-07-02T07:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Think this is right. Bought $HCC Dec25 puts with delta covering 20% of my common ( $AMR short covers rest). Think with met prices here $HCC is reasonably priced. Just want to reach the new tax year and theta is cheap for the peace of mind. Rather capture met upside via $NRP. $HCC Seems like puts here are good r/r. Met back to pre-fire levels and India/China looking weak https://t.co/ONwY5ZXJsu $HCC Seems like puts here are good r/r. Met back to pre-fire levels and India/China looking weak https://t.co/ONwY5ZXJsu"
X Link 2024-07-15T16:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@GHadjia Just did a quick skim of this and notice theres no mention of all the (increasing) SBC consistently issued by $MTCH. Think your assumption of 17% of shares retired is quite rosy given the $250m/yr issuance"
X Link 2024-07-16T00:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Got first $LULU exposure- short a few ATM Jan '25 puts. Shopped for/bought several pieces yesterday for SO. The technical material innovation the excellent fit consistency across product lines that enables ARPU growth per new customer and the crazy customer loyalty = brand differentiation. easily the stock that's causing the most trouble for my portfolio in [----] despite starting to buy it after it went down 30% YTD. Well it's down 30% more since I started buying. At this point we need to go back to GFC to find a multiple lower than today's. VERY disappointing https://t.co/I7XPB0Z0VN easily"
X Link 2024-07-26T07:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The $HCC theta is so worth it on days like this zero stress. I actually upped to 25% delta later that day. Cheers @jonclrichmond Think this is right. Bought $HCC Dec25 puts with delta covering 20% of my common ( $AMR short covers rest). Think with met prices here $HCC is reasonably priced. Just want to reach the new tax year and theta is cheap for the peace of mind. Rather capture met upside via $NRP. Think this is right. Bought $HCC Dec25 puts with delta covering 20% of my common ( $AMR short covers rest). Think with met prices here $HCC is reasonably priced. Just want to reach the new tax"
X Link 2024-08-01T15:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SauropodCapital I'm now up more across my 6% $AMR short and $HCC put/sold covered calls than my 10% $HCC common position w/ $41 basis 😅"
X Link 2024-08-14T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thinking through a trade. I'm long [----] $HCC basis $41. On Jul 1/2 shorted [---] $AMR and sold covered calls; Jul [--] bought [--] $HCC Dec '25 90p to lock in gains for [----] sale. Short now up $17k but want to bet on a met bottom. So I just sold [--] $AMR Jun '25 210p for $5k"
X Link 2024-08-15T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Outcomes: [--]. $AMR keeps falling my short keeps going up. [--]. If it REALLY falls get assigned the put at $210 ($185 basis) which then covers my short at a $26k gain. [--]. Met recovers lose short profits but my $HCC common gains (LTCG) plus I earn the put"
X Link 2024-08-15T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Downsides: [--]. Caps hedge effectiveness on my $HCC common [--]. If I get assigned before EOY I get hit with STCG from the short in THIS tax year which I'm trying very hard to avoid"
X Link 2024-08-15T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Highly recommend this truly great Michael Lewis piece on Chris Mark who developed industry standards to prevent mine roof falls leading to the 1st year (2016) of no roof fall deaths in the US. Moneyball for mine safety (really): $AMR $HCC $ARCH $BTU https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/michael-lewis-chris-marks-the-canary-who-is-government https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/michael-lewis-chris-marks-the-canary-who-is-government"
X Link 2024-09-03T17:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Last of the $NRP prefs gone. Just the credit facility and low-cost debt left. Hope they wait to repay the debt at maturity (Dec 2026) and begin capital returns a quarter early instead. https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/1171486/000143774924028585/nrp20240827c_8k.htm https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/1171486/000143774924028585/nrp20240827c_8k.htm"
X Link 2024-09-06T13:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Buying $DRX.to hand over fist here. They did $20m in FCF (OCF b4 WC minus capex even better if incl WC) last Q with 77m in TTM FCF before that And the EV at $11.5 CAD/sh is $311m AND they bought back 2.7m shares (8%) last Q What am I missing here"
X Link 2024-09-12T14:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@BillyRa44191170 @natstewart5 @ragingbullcap Yep- [----] is the last 10-K with reserves. Tiffany Sammis $NRP's head of IR mentioned that's because the new requirements for reserves reporting became much more onerous after that year"
X Link 2024-09-12T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$VSAT seems like a good short from here on runups given the Starlink-United news Look at that August runup. In 12M to 3/31/24: -688m CFO -1.5b capex in TTM -7b debt 700m due 2025/2b due 2026"
X Link 2024-09-13T16:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@scalpavelli It's just momentum factor. sky's the limit for trading sardines https://x.com/nope_its_lily/status/1827029279097679911 https://x.com/nope_its_lily/status/1827029279097679911"
X Link 2024-10-19T20:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@scalpavelli That said I'm short both $SG and $CAVA in proper hubristic fashion 😅"
X Link 2024-10-19T20:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Here's a pic from their Apr '17 MD&A summarizing their results from the trailing [--] months to April [----] their last reported MD&A quarter. Not exactly great. That tiny dividend looks familiar (sidenote this kind of summary is wonderful)"
X Link 2024-10-20T22:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So they had about 1.8b in TTM revenues about $560m book value at sale. Sold for 45m s/o * $12.30 or $550m equity value plus $315m in net debt for EV of $865m. Traded as low as $6/sh or $590m EV. https://www.investing.com/equities/canam-group-inc.-chart https://www.investing.com/equities/canam-group-inc.-chart"
X Link 2024-10-20T22:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"tl;dr not exactly original but $CAM.to illustrates the cyclicality bear case everyone's been making. Market clearly thought $CAM.to deserved a cyclicality discount; why not $DRX.to You have to believe $DRX.to automation drives persistently higher margins/FCF that overcome both the natural lumpiness of results + the cyclicality of the business"
X Link 2024-10-20T22:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JapanDeepValue1 It's not like the CCP would let Ferrotec do anything with proceeds though right It's just cash trapped in China"
X Link 2024-10-22T03:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@nope_its_lily Same with $CAVA and $SG"
X Link 2024-10-23T21:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sold half my $GTX at $9.70 here wish Id caught the after-hours move to $10.50. Will hold the other half plus close my short puts pos after we see what the news is tomorrow (if there is any)"
X Link 2024-10-24T01:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PedroLamento I sold Mar '25 12p on $GEO for $1.53 with underlying at $12.71 and even after it went up to like $15.20 I could only buy back for $1.25. IV just wouldn't fall lol"
X Link 2024-10-24T21:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@scalpavelli Closed these $LULU puts out and sold: -Mar [--] 80p $DG -Feb [--] 50p $VAL I dont like selling puts on high divs like $BTI. Rather buy the common and sell cc or something but you dont even really get much premium since IV is so low. Got first $LULU exposure- short a few ATM Jan '25 puts. Shopped for/bought several pieces yesterday for SO. The technical material innovation the excellent fit consistency across product lines that enables ARPU growth per new customer and the crazy customer loyalty = brand Got first $LULU exposure- short a few ATM Jan '25 puts. Shopped for/bought several"
X Link 2024-10-26T15:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@tommytrxnh Dont know about best but Hanoi House is a classic. Make sure you get a resy though (not hard) or youll be in for a wait Saigon Shack great also usually a line but moves fast. Best to go during weekdays at lunch"
X Link 2024-10-28T02:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JohnHuber72 @crowdturtle Also 60% of the $NRP MLP income comes in as LTCG (Section 1231- "Disposal or cutting of timber coal or iron ore"). But I don't think C-corps can take advantage of Section [----] - only pass-through entities. So C-corp would see higher 21% corp tax rate vs sec [----] cap gains"
X Link 2024-10-28T03:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"But whats funnier is $42b will add nontrivial flows that could ACTUALLY move the $btc price a bit. Which further actualizes value (At $40b daily $btc volume $42b might not matter but who knows how real that volume is given the move when the German govt dumped just $1b.). (4/6)"
X Link 2024-10-31T05:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"But leaning into the absurdity Id argue $MSTRs literal best use of funds is memeworthy things Keeping memes going keeps the liquidity party going And whats more memeworthy than going all-in on $btc with the largest ATM of ALL time (6/6)"
X Link 2024-10-31T05:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Same thing with $SG It touched yesterdays closing price today intraday- after earnings with rev margin and SSS deceleration (I know because I had a limit order to short at $42.20 that filled). Everyone keeps saying momentum factor but it happens even without momentum 😂 Draft Kings was down 15% last night after hours and is now +4% on the day. What does this tell you about the composition of today's market participants Certainly tells us what we already know - fundamental investors with a time horizon are the minority which should create Draft Kings was down 15% last night after hours and is"
X Link 2024-11-09T05:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@tclaugus2 How do you like $CE at these levels Seems like an overreaction to the dividend cut"
X Link 2024-11-13T00:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"IMO the steelman to the "omg each restaurant is worth $50m" is: -$CMG has [----] stores as of 3Q24; $CAVA has [---] -Cava opened [--] stores in TTM for $111m in capex; $1.8m/store (assuming 100% of capex = new stores) -Cava is trading for 21.5% of Chipotle (1/4) I'm done $CAVA https://t.co/gvfPigxh03 I'm done $CAVA https://t.co/gvfPigxh03"
X Link 2024-11-14T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"-To get to [---] stores (21.5% of $CMG's 3615) Cava needs to build [---] stores (777-352) which will cost 1.8*425=$765m. They can fund half that from cash on the balance sheet. They might have to raise some but at a $17b mcap an ATM wouldn't be that dilutive. (2/4)"
X Link 2024-11-14T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Imo the assumptions to challenge are: -Is $CMG worth its multiple -Can US really support [----] Cavas- does it have the same runway as Chipotle - Does time value of money matter anymore Build will take [--] years vs a 4.4% 10Y but it's priced as if it's already happened. -Will Cavas AUV (2.8m) catch CMGs (3.1m) (3/4)"
X Link 2024-11-14T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"tl;dr you don't see many opportunities with such immense runway to grow with such positive unit economics- with margins still improving I don't really agree with it (I'm short) but imo that's why $CMG and now $CAVA are being valued so highly. (4/4)"
X Link 2024-11-14T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NuggetCapital $CNQ a good trading sardine whenever it gets to around $30 US"
X Link 2024-11-15T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This (probably staged) video is mostly a testament to the incredible ability of capitalism to reduce the price of non-Baumol effect goods over time Lower TV prices = streamers can afford TV destruction videos. Surplus for all https://t.co/vClEAKGsXY https://t.co/vClEAKGsXY"
X Link 2024-11-16T15:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@W98AB @BisphamGreen How'd you think about TIPS in Oct [----] I picked up a bunch of 20-year TIPS then for a near-retirement family member when reals were at 2.5%. In retrospect wish I'd sized it bigger"
X Link 2024-11-23T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Was just updating my $VAL memo when I got an email from CapEdge. Fredriksen up to 9.4% https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314808/000091957424006947/d11539129_13d-a.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314808/000091957424006947/d11539129_13d-a.htm"
X Link 2024-11-29T21:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Happy to be wrong though if any marketers know: -Billboard ad pricing in SF over time (could be confounded if supply down though I hear billboards can be pretty regulated/supply constrained) -Any measurement of the effectiveness of billboards in terms of lead gen etc"
X Link 2024-11-30T04:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For sure. But how can folks be confident that the source was OOH Wouldn't that attribution have to come from the customer- lower fidelity I suppose if that was Brex's only channel upon launch (given their limited budget) I could see them reasonably concluding it drove success"
X Link 2024-11-30T04:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@dappermarketer sent me a great loom from a member of his @AdQuick team explaining how they do it- essentially what one would intuit is the only way- estimating some counterfactual baseline without the campaign and comparing real-world conversions to that counterfactual. https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1862722516445188132 https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1862722516445188132"
X Link 2024-11-30T05:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Since this tweet long $NE short $VAL has done quite well Do not blindly fall into the higher profile investors hawking offshore drillers such as $VAL $RIG (again). The easy money in this trade was made a while ago (off the heels of a lot of restructuring) and at this point it's a much more difficult trade. I keep seeing people talk Do not blindly fall into the higher profile investors hawking offshore drillers such as $VAL $RIG (again). The easy money in this trade was made a while ago (off the heels of a lot of restructuring) and at this point it's a much more difficult trade. I keep seeing"
X Link 2024-12-06T21:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@hkuppy Appreciate the note on $CVX [----] capex budget- link here for others: https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2024/q4/chevron-announces-2025-capex-budget https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2024/q4/chevron-announces-2025-capex-budget"
X Link 2024-12-08T17:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@W98AB Ha Giang is a magical experience if you have time. Highly recommend. Right up there (if not more) in majesty with the Grand Canyon. I preferred the jeep tour. Felt safer than the motorbikes"
X Link 2024-12-13T03:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just caught up on $drx.to earnings call. Quick 🧵on main points (pasted transcript in a Google doc below for folks since it's hard to find online):"
X Link 2024-12-13T04:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XU_ZuFdzPnFV7MngEJ_8sDx6_07np4ljjikjglQogOA/edittab=t.0 https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XU_ZuFdzPnFV7MngEJ_8sDx6_07np4ljjikjglQogOA/edittab=t.0"
X Link 2024-12-13T04:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1. Paschini (CEO) was outright disgusted by the current EV/EBITDA multiple. "3x- it's a joke". Makes me optimistic they'll actually use the NCIB. [--]. Declined a $150m 8% margin Amazon contract to hold out for higher margins. Discipline. [--]. New contract to be announced by Feb"
X Link 2024-12-13T04:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@VolTrder @Shipping_VIE Net positive: -Supply locked up for years. Tightens market for incremental demand. -Readthrough: day rates for 6G assets implies floor/higher rates for the 7G assets $VAL/$NE have"
X Link 2024-12-18T00:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Anyways re-reading this post often also makes me wonder about the feasibility of being a pure value investor today. There is an argument you can make that in a world of so much liquidity value truly is a game of adverse selection"
X Link 2024-12-18T01:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"If you have Buffett-like investing screens you're picking from the stocks that "magical thinking" and growth investors have already bid up. This includes some amazing asset-light compounding businesses like $DDOG or $CRWD which will always look expensive"
X Link 2024-12-18T01:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Like what do value screens typically yield Cyclical capex/materials/resources/rate-sensitive financials. Or: RoW: Europe Japan China. Again adverse selection (at least the past decade)"
X Link 2024-12-18T01:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"That said it's not like there aren't opportunities out there. Look at $NRP. The numbers smacked you in the face but because it's an MLP because it was illiquid and because it's coal/non-ESG there was value"
X Link 2024-12-18T01:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Does the ATL level of corp bond spreads seem insane to anyone else or is it just me I'm almost tempted to sell the corps bought for family in Oct [----] and buy treasuries until this blows out again"
X Link 2024-12-24T18:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This + David's point about oil being propped up by the Ukraine war is the Occam's razor bear case for offshore. $VAL $TDW The counterpoint is that at current dayrates/utilization remaining players can generate FCF/buyback shares at 7-10% yields as consolidation occurs. $RIG was my biggest short this year. Something I got really right. That one was easier to have high conviction given the nonstop spam from the twitter bulls about how dumb my thesis was. My thesis is the same. Offshore was built for a world where OPEC controls the price of $RIG was my biggest short this year. Something I got"
X Link 2024-12-24T19:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@tradedollarnut Bruce- curious why you're buying $ZIM in your 401k The 25% Israeli dividend tax hits hard- wouldn't it be nice to offset with the foreign tax credit in your taxable"
X Link 2024-12-26T06:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@tradedollarnut Got it. Still think $ZIM a position better held in taxable If $1m tax advantaged and fully paid out as divs Israelis keep $250k. AND youd also have to pay taxes (I assume pre-tax) upon withdrawal. Whereas taxable gets foreign tax credit AND divs will be qualified"
X Link 2024-12-26T22:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Built this ISO exercise AMT calculator with Claude/@AnthropicAI in just a few hours. Hopefully useful for any startup employees considering exercising their ISOs: It's an updated version of Erik Barbara (@reactorkinship)'s Github app. https://isoamtcalc.netlify.app/ https://isoamtcalc.netlify.app/"
X Link 2024-12-27T23:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I wanted to update with 2024/25 tax brackets and add tooltips to show every calc step in detail- exemption amounts tax brackets and owed tax calcs so unfamiliar folks can: a) granularly understand how AMT works and b) actually verify/validate the calc output"
X Link 2024-12-27T23:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@fahdananta Disagree with this- presumes that USDCAD hasnt topped- if anything I think the US10Y is more likely to bottom here than not and that would be + for CAD Folks that convert could be doing so at the USDCAD peak. Im buying TSX names as I see USDCAD from here as a tailwind LT"
X Link 2024-12-28T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@nope_its_lily @GreenZenForest Why not Vancouver WA"
X Link 2024-12-28T21:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Lol. Sold $VAL at $41.36 to tax loss harvest and switched into equiv delta Dec '26 75c at $5.30 (cheapest $/delta low IV- I was all the volume on Dec 17). Now calls up almost as much as my losses (though shares not back to my $45 basis) and delta higher. Pretty nice"
X Link 2024-12-31T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"One thing I don't hear pro-immigration folks acknowledge is how fundamentally adversarial immigration is. Look I'm the son of a first-gen immigrant. My fiance is an immigrant. But if you want to change policy you have to first realize that any system you build can be exploited"
X Link 2024-12-31T19:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@blondesnmoney Bought some $VIV yesterday. Partly a USD reversion partly because its at like a 10-year low and still growing"
X Link 2025-01-01T01:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@blondesnmoney @iBladesi Yeah I dumped most of mine last time. Sad I was out tonight and missed it this time https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1849268040313032959 Sold half my $GTX at $9.70 here wish Id caught the after-hours move to $10.50. Will hold the other half plus close my short puts pos after we see what the news is tomorrow (if there is any). https://x.com/johnkmason/status/1849268040313032959 Sold half my $GTX at $9.70 here wish Id caught the after-hours move to $10.50. Will hold the other half plus close my short puts pos after we see what the news is tomorrow (if there is any)"
X Link 2025-01-03T05:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@fahdananta Well if you were remote for a US company you could 😅 That's like $350k USD below avg L3 Stripe PM comp"
X Link 2025-01-04T03:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"One interesting co right in the middle of this is $SIG. @tclaugus2 mentioned 1.5y ago. Pretty volatile (and a great trading sardine for me). Talking to younger folks lab-grown diamonds are increasingly normal Feels over for the real thing https://t.co/pNITcJtNxx Talking to younger folks lab-grown diamonds are increasingly normal Feels over for the real thing https://t.co/pNITcJtNxx"
X Link 2025-01-12T01:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I think a few battling factors: [--]. Lab-grown ultimately brings avg ticket size (and margins) down [--]. Vertical integration lets $SIG capture more of the (remaining) margin vs buying supply from miners Think $SIG does fine LT-people wanna see before they buy. I did last year 😁"
X Link 2025-01-12T01:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Long $ZIM at $16.60 and wondering what I'm missing. So the recent price action is obviously a confluence of three events: -Ceasefire news (supposedly = Red Sea opening by Houthis) -Dockworkers' strike end -Chinese New Years"
X Link 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"These events have been brutal to the share price- down 45% in a couple months. But here's the bull case: 1) Obviously the balance sheet (setting aside lease liabilities which I'll address later). $800m in investments and $1.5b in cash against a $2b market cap"
X Link 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) You're also getting $4-5 in divs in March assuming they true-up like in 2023"
X Link 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5) The real bull case though is that the Houthis don't stop on ceasefire news. Why would they They're making $180m/month off their racket. https://www.economist.com/interactive/international/2025/01/18/inside-the-houthis-moneymaking-machine https://www.economist.com/interactive/international/2025/01/18/inside-the-houthis-moneymaking-machine"
X Link 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So bull case: -Houthis don't really stop -Rates decay slower than expected -Analyst estimates for an already-done Q4 are clearly wrong and Q1 is half over (with pricing lag) -I get $4-5 back in divs in [--] months vs price of $16 (need to own this in taxable for foreign tax credit though)"
X Link 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Bear case: -Houthis do stop -Rates drop like a rock (even further than 4Q23) as Houthis stopping compounds the orderbook/oversupply problem because routes shorten on top of incoming supply -China/US trade war significantly affects container volumes"
X Link 2025-01-19T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@compoundpapi @irbezek @SevenSagesCap Ive followed it for years. If youre gonna buy worth buying the L shares. Same dividend for cheaper. I only owned it briefly because I realized there just wasnt and probably wouldnt ever be torque to the share price (and a low dividend yield)"
X Link 2025-01-20T13:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@InvestyMan @christankerfund @Pawlicker88 Breakdown of $ZIM capacity by trade route:"
X Link 2025-01-23T06:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah $tsla with bad earnings and ridic reaction but as long as liquidity keeps sloshing it'll get bid. Same with $pltr $ionq $achr (which I'm short). But looks like top is in- now just a waiting game. Even if liquidity persists it'll just slosh elsewhere (see $CAVA $SG)"
X Link 2025-01-30T03:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Agree with your post overall but there are weird inefficiencies out there like $GOOGL trading for years at a discount to $GOOG despite indices like $VTI allocating to both (in fact more to $GOOGL)"
X Link 2025-02-11T06:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$TDW is trading at 6x [----] FCF or 16-17% yield. 81% of next year's rev is already contracted. I bought more today and also bought calls. All the Jan '27 55c volume is me (stop adding IV please @ragingbullcap). GLTA Everyone knows the OFS market is pausing in [----] as oil majors digest existing projects. However they are planning to increase activity in [----]. $TDW is now trading for 7.8x [----] earnings estimates and 4.4x [----] FCF estimate. I am unaware of a cheaper stock besides $VAL. https://t.co/f17sy5O9ea Everyone knows the OFS market is pausing in [----] as oil majors digest existing projects."
X Link 2025-03-04T00:22Z [---] followers, 28K engagements
"@svanerkel @ragingbullcap Higher ongoing capex required = higher required threshold for FCF but the flip side is more prohibitively limited drillship supply. I think until dayrates go higher the drillers are more like LT OTM call options on offshore demand vs OSV. $TDW is ITM right now"
X Link 2025-03-04T03:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@svanerkel @ragingbullcap That said it's not like I don't own and am not bagholding $VAL and $NE. I am 😁"
X Link 2025-03-04T03:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$VAL Looks like Fredriksen added 805k shares- as of last Friday 2/28. New 13D showing hes at 10.56% ownership now"
X Link 2025-03-05T14:17Z [---] followers, 13.6K engagements
"$VAL CEO Anton Dibowitz finally buys some shares. [----] at $33.90 or $254k. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314808/000031480825000041/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1741296196.xml https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/314808/000031480825000041/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1741296196.xml"
X Link 2025-03-06T22:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@melkuo @fahdananta Man I leave Toronto for NY for one month and [---] shuts down Melody turns against it a trade war happens Carney passes Pierre P on Kalshi good thing Im finally back Sunday @davzhao"
X Link 2025-03-21T22:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Zooming out my NW has 5x'd since I went active in [----] though inclusive of contributions equal my starting balance. Considering I was definitely an idiot investor in 2020/2021 pretty satisfied"
X Link 2025-04-01T00:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I think I'm mostly concentrated beta. What alpha I had was mainly in [----] when I decided to believe JPow when he said he was gonna raise rates to fight inflation and traded accordingly. This ended up costing me as I didn't hold $META or $AMZN with conviction long enough"
X Link 2025-04-01T00:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm still bearish. I've switched mostly defensive ( $DAC largest pos at 20% loaded up at $66-68) and cut $NRP to 15% post-rally after loading up sub-$90. Besides that I'm 20% cash and rest special sits: $HNRG for PP deal $SUP for the pref renegotiation $GLXZ $ENZ"
X Link 2025-04-16T23:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$NRP a bit worrying. Shorted some $HCC. If this boils down to a China trade war met is gonna be in for more hurt. Good Q4 bc of Exxon's last carbon seq PMT but Q1 will be worse esp since Q1 seaborne pricing much worse than Q4's. $AMR and $METC do have domestic exposure though"
X Link 2025-04-16T23:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"My main beta is $TDW which I sold all of at $36.50 on the rip and began to buy back in starting at $34. Watching shale for signs of prod decline. Switching pretty aggressively to a trading mentality on high-beta stocks like this and $ZIM as I did with megacaps in 2022"
X Link 2025-04-16T23:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2) Argentina is probably okay with this because its essentially bringing USD-equivalent liquidity into Argentina. Their existing capital controls mainly stop liquidity out (ARS-USD). This would be stablecoin/USD-ARS"
X Link 2025-05-01T06:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3) I guess Argentina is okay with folks using the Visa exchange rate over the official rate given Mercado Electronico exists At first I was confused- if this is sanctioned seems both a repudiation and (if adopted) diminution of the official rate"
X Link 2025-05-01T06:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NRP earnings lower as expected. Reporting before $AMR and $METC so dont have the lookthrough but this is trough FCF (I trimmed all higher cost lots bought $92- expected to be able to buy lower after today). $NRP a bit worrying. Shorted some $HCC. If this boils down to a China trade war met is gonna be in for more hurt. Good Q4 bc of Exxon's last carbon seq PMT but Q1 will be worse esp since Q1 seaborne pricing much worse than Q4's. $AMR and $METC do have domestic exposure though. $NRP a bit worrying. Shorted some $HCC. If this boils down to a China trade war met is gonna be in for more hurt."
X Link 2025-05-06T12:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@tradedollarnut Should have shorted"
X Link 2025-05-27T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"One bright spot: love seeing the caps on student loans and especially the abolishment of Grad PLUS loans. For over [--] years since I worked in UNC's financial aid office I've been strongly against PLUS loans. Good riddance"
X Link 2025-07-07T00:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"PLUS loans: -Had no caps: could take $100Ks to put yourself/parents in indentured servitude for life (not dischargeable by bankruptcy). -Created horrible incentives for universities encouraging infinite tuition raises. -Not to mention the atrocious 4.228% origination fee"
X Link 2025-07-07T00:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Saw so many people pay w/ PLUS loans for private schools like Clemson instead of their (equally ranked and 1/5 price) state flagship because "Clemson was their dream school". And I guarantee USC's online social work program's $115k price tag will become a thing of the past"
X Link 2025-07-07T00:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Still researching but I bought a chunk of $ELV Friday. Interest piqued when @jaysyoon pointed out commercial members account for 2/3 of their profits- yet its drawn down almost as much as $CNC a near pureplay managed care provider. I expect long/short would work well here. Healthcare is in pure panic territory. https://t.co/3eDXV89RqG Healthcare is in pure panic territory. https://t.co/3eDXV89RqG"
X Link 2025-07-19T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Predicting near-term demand for P&A is tough because it's based on a decades-long aging well pyramid + more recent dry holes. Well intervention a bit better since driven by more recent wells (e.g. 2015-2020 vintage wells going into 1st/2nd workover windows)"
X Link 2025-07-20T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"But overall difficult. And not as sensitive to short-term offshore capex as the rig owners or OSV so the shale decline/offshore revitalization thesis won't accrue to $HLX as much near-term though it certainly will LT"
X Link 2025-07-20T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"But outlook is good. Two drivers: 1) growing backlog/lockup of core WI fleet into LT higher-dayrate contracts (driven by limited supply esp as normal rigs become scarcer/even more expensive WI substitutes) and 2) the medium to long-term North Sea outlook"
X Link 2025-07-20T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"North Sea (Seawell warm-stacking) drove the guide cut/recent bearishness but looking at the NSTA's [----] decom report it's clear there's a large North Sea P&A backlog that should drive demand for Seawell/Well Enhancer + associated robotics over the next [--] years"
X Link 2025-07-20T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"They have $150m left on the auth (15% of mcap) and have had an entire quarter at these prices to buy at a 10-16% yield. If they didn't or did M&A big red flag. If they did think this will pop/is certainly a LT hold"
X Link 2025-07-20T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Couple of sidenotes: -CEO Owen Kratz owns 5% of company and is [--] -Mgmt incentives to earn PSUs are 50% relative TSR (25/55/80th %ile for 3/100/200% of PSU payout) against peers and 50% FCF (275m/375m/475m for 0/100/200% PSU payout) over trailing 3Y"
X Link 2025-07-20T22:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ArmsGarrett Why bother with an entirely managed care business when you can invest in $ELV for a similar multiple and way less managed care exposure"
X Link 2025-07-23T00:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Man watching $WEN and it's really being left for dead esp after US prez was passed over for CEO job and left Jul [--]. Is consumer down so bad This is probably trough Get they closed a bunch of units AND SSS dropped but the brand isn't dead or anything I like the food"
X Link 2025-07-30T01:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@stoked_on_waves Yeah this is def right. Not to mention $SG $CAVA and $WING"
X Link 2025-07-30T01:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@nuggy5 Ah- I shorted Jan [--] ATM puts here- I closed out after it rebounded later in [--] (the puts would have expired OOM). I still have an eye on the equity now thats its even lower but typically prefer to see it recover before I buy in"
X Link 2025-08-01T13:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@FishtownCap just ran last Q's and this Q's $DAC report through o3 (and spot-checked) for extensions: -Suez Canal +2Y from Apr '26-Apr '28 -Juliet +1Y from Sep '25-Aug '26 -Dalian +2Y from Mar '26-Apr '28 -Monaco -3M from Dec '26-Sep '26 $CMRE rallying +5% today on good earnings $DAC is cheaper less levered has a 50% higher backlog for a similar EV. Looking forward to earnings Monday and seeing how many ships they've extended into 2028+ w/ the Harpex hitting weekly highs $CMRE rallying +5% today on good earnings $DAC is cheaper less levered has a 50% higher backlog for a similar EV. Looking"
X Link 2025-08-04T21:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Fin_Eng_Net Are you pointing to the seasonal A/R build from Q1 as $CROX having "major difficulties in generating cash" That was all from Q1. They had a net A/R release in Q2 and did $270m in FCF. The bear case here is unsustainable demand and margins not seasonal A/R build"
X Link 2025-08-10T16:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Asked o3 looks like this is incorrect the go-to acquisition approach in Israel is a reverse triangular merger which requires just a 50% majority. With such a fragmented $ZIM shareholder base unclear whether they'll even be able to get that. $ZIM Im getting a lot of questions about this - according to the Israeli law a tender offer for all of the companys outstanding shares has to get 95% approval from shareholders. You can find it in $ZIM annual report as well $ZIM Im getting a lot of questions about this - according to the Israeli law a tender offer for all of the companys outstanding shares"
X Link 2025-08-11T13:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@danielbraden18 @eli_glickman I sold a bunch. Bear case: -This is just a rumor thats unsubstantiated with an offer for another [--] months stock bleeds out -The deal wont actually even happen if it actually requires 95% (assume theyll do a merger to require only 50%)"
X Link 2025-08-12T16:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@danielbraden18 @eli_glickman I was oversized on it still have a regular sized position on. Also the sell was a trade because technically lets be honest $ZIM trades like shit and I thought itd go back down at some point lol"
X Link 2025-08-12T16:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@firstadopter And $WEN and $JACK:"
X Link 2025-08-13T02:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@LukeWolgram But look at the 3x sequential revenue growth Quantum is surely the future. That Oxford Ionics acquisition just has to go through and to the moon 🚀🚀🚀 (this is actually the primary bull case if you search $IONQ)"
X Link 2025-08-20T04:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sep + the tax-loss selling for $SRPT will be legendary"
X Link 2025-08-25T22:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Pretty great $CYTK MAPLE-HCM results excited for Tuesday 6% pos for me (8% across IBKR accounts). This fell so much from post-SEQUOIA-HCM results/ $NVS acq that the r/r seemed great biotech has such crazy schizophrenic moves given little change in fundamentals"
X Link 2025-08-31T14:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Great call. Upped $AIV to a 9% pos at $7.42 and trimmed my highest-cost lot ($7.67) after-hours given so overweight $AIV is gonna declare a 4$ div and maybe monkeys bid the press release and you make some $. maybe they don't. you probably don't lose too much if that happens. $AIV is gonna declare a 4$ div and maybe monkeys bid the press release and you make some $. maybe they don't. you probably don't lose too much if that happens"
X Link 2025-09-16T04:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"70% of H1Bs are awarded to Indians today. Tons of abuse from Tata and Infosys to crowd the funnel with their applicants. As a result the overall H1B lottery success rate was only 20% in recent years"
X Link 2025-09-20T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Obvs lottery still inferior to a more meritocratic system but this is a huge improvement: removal of abuse by Indian contractor companies. Young intl students paying to study here and who assimilated for [--] years much more deserving than $INFY Tata and other abusers imo"
X Link 2025-09-20T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Ok I couldn't resist bought some $WEN at $9.12 Man watching $WEN and it's really being left for dead esp after US prez was passed over for CEO job and left Jul [--]. Is consumer down so bad This is probably trough Get they closed a bunch of units AND SSS dropped but the brand isn't dead or anything I like the food. Man watching $WEN and it's really being left for dead esp after US prez was passed over for CEO job and left Jul [--]. Is consumer down so bad This is probably trough Get they closed a bunch of units AND SSS dropped but the brand isn't dead or anything I like the food"
X Link 2025-09-23T22:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"One Q is the debt. ChatGPT returned a net -$30.8m (assuming $DPZ-equiv coupons) after-tax FCF impact (-42.5m pre-tax) once everything thru [----] refi'd. -$62.7m/-86.5m if all debt refi'd at conservative 6.72%. That still leaves a lot of FCF to be generated thru 2032"
X Link 2025-09-23T22:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I asked it to output assumptions- e.g. UST rate it's using as comp + assumed corp spread for $WEN: -7.00% Debentures due Dec [----] $49.3m Current 7.000% assumed 4.93% = 5-yr UST 3.59% + 1.34% spread interest: $1.0m pre-tax $0.7m after-tax (benefit). -2019-1 A-2-I (ARD 2026) $351.7m Current 3.783% assumed 4.93% = 5-yr UST 3.59% + 1.34% spread interest: +$4.0m pre-tax +$2.9m after-tax. -2018-1 A-2-II (ARD 2028) $434.0m Current 3.884% assumed 5.217% = 7-yr UST 3.80% + 1.417% spread interest: +$5.8m pre-tax +$4.2m after-tax. -2019-1 A-2-II (ARD 2029) $396.4m Current 4.080% assumed 5.217% = 7-yr"
X Link 2025-09-23T22:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Tabrizi invented the Huntingtons Disease Integrated Staging System (HD-ISS). And on the call she was confident that AMT-130 could be used across all [--] stages with an up to 20-40k addressable market"
X Link 2025-09-24T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$QURE cited [----] immediately addressable patients in the US. Say $1m per treatment (thinking about $SRPT Elevidys pricing for DMD). $6b market. At $37 trading at $2.5b or 0.4x potential sales. Intl market even better (though probably $CLPT presence globally is smaller)"
X Link 2025-09-24T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Really worth a read for the most compelling cautious take Ive seen re: $QURE results. Today UniQure ( $QURE ) announced the [--] yr readout findings of their gene therapy trial for Huntington's disease (HD). At the bottom line the company reports a statistically significant reduction of disease progression (75%) compared to an external propensity matched https://t.co/DZuncuhfgR Today UniQure ( $QURE ) announced the [--] yr readout findings of their gene therapy trial for Huntington's disease (HD). At the bottom line the company reports a statistically significant reduction of disease progression"
X Link 2025-09-28T00:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I will add that the remaining [--] high-dose $QURE patients whose results werent included in the June [--] cutoff may be reported in the coming months and are definitely a wildcard if they dont affirm readout results"
X Link 2025-09-28T05:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Believe below is the most recent interview (10/3) Sarah Tabrizi (AMT-130 KOL) has given since $QURE readout. This video literally only has [---] views: alpha Been scouring for bear cases as I have 30% of my NW in this and it presents two: 🧵 https://youtu.be/cXsrYM2Fq7gt=3001 https://youtu.be/cXsrYM2Fq7gt=3001"
X Link 2025-10-04T16:46Z [---] followers, 27.5K engagements
"1. Liam Gray one of first to train on AMT-130 procedure took between 12-20 hours to administer compared to the typical 7-hour procedures that neurosurgeons are used to. Obvs this may come down with repetition and training but worth mentioning"
X Link 2025-10-04T16:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"She suggests that as a result administration may be limited to centers that can deliver complex neurosurgeries. If true this would affect both ramp time and peak treatments/year. But one question: does $CLPT make this faster- did Liam Gray do it using $CLPT @A_May_MD"
X Link 2025-10-04T16:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"One thing I have been mulling is if $CLPT is literally part of the label for $QURE AMT-130 how much pricing power do they have/could this materially affect AMT-130 margins Worth considering for the steelman. This idea that $clpt is going to forever have some miniscule take rate from gene therapies isn't going to last. Once regulatory hurdles for a sufficient number of new drugs have been cleared need will be substantially greater than the actual capacity to perform the surgeries. This idea that $clpt is going to forever have some miniscule take rate from gene therapies isn't going to last."
X Link 2025-10-04T18:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"re: $CLPT. No dog in the fight but here's why I don't own it. [--]. I agree $QURE has de-risked $CLPT LT. But I think there is path risk from here to AMT-130 launch in [----] which will itself take time to ramp. I could absolutely see $CLPT with a 50% drawdown between now and launch. Look at the chart. It's happened before. Think you have to have durable conviction/the appropriate LT hold style to be buying/owning here. [--]. The Shay Boloors of the world are pumping it now. So there's a degree of momentum factor in it (which absolutely may continue and juice your returns). Totally fair bet to make"
X Link 2025-10-04T23:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
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