#  @KenTumin Ken Tumin Ken Tumin posts on X about fed rate, money, fed, rates the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1088185143364411396/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +71% - [--] Month [------] +120% - [--] Months [-------] +19% - [--] Year [-------] +22% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1088185143364411396/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -25% - [--] Months [---] +30% - [--] Year [---] +200% ### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1088185143364411396/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.25% - [--] Month [-----] +1.80% - [--] Months [-----] +12% - [--] Year [-----] +29% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1088185143364411396/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [countries](/list/countries) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [financial services](/list/financial-services) #2846 [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [events](/list/events) [social networks](/list/social-networks) **Social topic influence** [fed rate](/topic/fed-rate), [money](/topic/money), [fed](/topic/fed), [rates](/topic/rates), [inflation](/topic/inflation), [fdic](/topic/fdic), [savings](/topic/savings), [credit union](/topic/credit-union) #73, [bank](/topic/bank), [fintech](/topic/fintech) **Top assets mentioned** [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) [JPMorgan Chase (JPM)](/topic/jpmorgan-chase) [Bank of America (BAC)](/topic/bank-of-america) [Synapse (SYN)](/topic/synapse) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [Citigroup Inc (C)](/topic/citigroup) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Walrus (WAL)](/topic/$wal) [PacWest Bancorp (PACW)](/topic/$pacw) [New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYCB)](/topic/$nycb) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Nice Graphic that shows how the odds of a Fed rate hike in [----] have gone to zero while the odds of rate cuts have been rising. 😟 Implied odds of Fed moves https://t.co/odv64Vp06Z Implied odds of Fed moves https://t.co/odv64Vp06Z" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1111378602866597888) 2019-03-28T21:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Great summary of the #JobsReport - The strong jobs report should reduce the odds of a Fed rate cut in [----] Strong US #JobsReport in April +263k #jobs added w/ upward revisions +16k #unemployment rate fell to fresh 50-yr low 3.6% but largely due to lower labor force participation 62.8% wages modest +0.2% m/m but wage growth firmly anchored at 3.2% y/y Will anchor #Fed patience https://t.co/hephSh7WV8 Strong US #JobsReport in April +263k #jobs added w/ upward revisions +16k #unemployment rate fell to fresh 50-yr low 3.6% but largely due to lower labor force participation 62.8% wages modest" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1124312238792347648) 2019-05-03T13:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "My latest Fed review rate forecasts. Treasury yields have plummeted (5-year yield is now under 2%) and the odds of Fed rate cuts in [----] have shot up. Expect CD rates to fall. #cdrates https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/fed-deposit-interest-rate-predictions/ https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/fed-deposit-interest-rate-predictions/" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1136043295581331458) 2019-06-04T22:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "My liquid bank account survey: APYs of the rate leaders: Savings/MMAs (no limits/reqs): 1.75% No-Penalty CDs: 1.55% Noteworthy recent rate cuts: Goldman Sachs High Yield Savings (1.70% 1.55%) American Express High Yield Savings (1.60% 1.50%) https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/bank-accounts-survey/ https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/bank-accounts-survey/" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1255315711754416129) 2020-04-29T01:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@NavySassano @vnq #3 $VTWAX/$VT is probably the most diversified out of those [--] options" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1429543195780820992) 2021-08-22T20:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The first S&P [---] index fund $VFINX will be turning [--] years old later this month. To see the value of regular investing into an S&P [---] index fund I used the ETF Return Calculator @DQYDJHQ [--] years of investing $1k per month in $SPY would have grown to almost $1.3 million" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1430177295315218438) 2021-08-24T14:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "My Fed meeting review its impact on deposit rates and strategies for your cash savings If there is a Fed rate hike near the end of [----] and if the Fed continues rate hikes in [----] we may see some online savings account rate hikes in late [----]. https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/federal-funds-rate-hike/ https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/federal-funds-rate-hike/" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1440810746154131457) 2021-09-22T22:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The new rate leader for online banks is @synchrony At online banks most of the rate hike focus has been on CDs. Synchrony's latest featured CD is a 16-mo CD Special (1.50% APY) Online direct CDs are still lagging Treasury bills/notes and brokered CDs. https://www.depositaccounts.com/banks/synchrony-bank/offers/ https://www.depositaccounts.com/banks/synchrony-bank/offers/" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1516456157891940359) 2022-04-19T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Another major online savings account reaches 2% @Ally Bank Online Savings Account APY: 1.85% 2.00% Compared to 2018-19 Ally is still lagging: One month after Dec [----] Fed rate hike (same fed funds rate as today) Ally increased its OSA yield from 2.00% to 2.20%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1565670656645238784) 2022-09-02T11:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Ally Tumbles After Auto-Lending Giant Reports Slowing Loans @deyesha for @business "Ally Financial Inc.s disappointing third-quarter results showed fewer people than expected took out new loans to buy vehicles." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/autos-gloom-deepens-after-lender-ally-reports-slowing-loans#xj4y7vzkg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/autos-gloom-deepens-after-lender-ally-reports-slowing-loans#xj4y7vzkg" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1582795667453317120) 2022-10-19T18:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Fed rate hike predictions. If this occurs it'll be close to the 2006/2007 peak when online savings account rates peaked in the 5% to 5.50% range. BofA: "We now anticipate 50bp rate hikes in December and February followed by a 25bp rate hike in March for a terminal rate of 5.0-5.25%." BofA: "We now anticipate 50bp rate hikes in December and February followed by a 25bp rate hike in March for a terminal rate of 5.0-5.25%."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1589282452681654272) 2022-11-06T15:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@theDividendKid $ABT Abbott Laboratories - [--] years of dividend growth and a long history of strong total return" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1615085284772773916) 2023-01-16T20:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@TheETFObserver Besides $VTI/$VTSAX what's the other fund that tracks the CRSP US Total Market Index I'm surprised there aren't more funds that track this" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1618312739595911169) 2023-01-25T18:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Top US Banks to Reveal $521 Billion Deposit Drop Most in Decade @KatLeighDoherty & @jennysurane for @business "Deposits at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. are expected to have tumbled $521 billion from a year earlier" Top US Banks to Reveal $521 Billion Deposit Drop Most in Decade https://t.co/5niiqjNsjL @business https://t.co/haX8xHPpN3 Top US Banks to Reveal $521 Billion Deposit Drop Most in Decade https://t.co/5niiqjNsjL @business https://t.co/haX8xHPpN3" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1646550893444071428) 2023-04-13T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Several big banks are being aggressive today with their brokered CD rates Sample of 1-year non-callable new-issue brokered CD rates: 5.25% M&T Bank 5.20% Zions 5.15% Bank of America US Bank Truist & BMO Bank of America's 1-year CD at their branches pays only 0.03%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1661379648570138632) 2023-05-24T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@business "Interest expense soared more than sevenfold" This will likely continue based on PacWest Bank's deposit offerings like a 5.15% APY savings account & a 5.50% APY 13mo CD Special. Both are market-leading rates" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1662997909191770112) 2023-05-29T01:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Fund performance comes and goes. Costs go on forever. John Bogle" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1668354094744887308) 2023-06-12T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "After the CPI report odds of a Fed rate hike have fallen: Odds of a hike on Wed = 5.8% (was 20.9% on 6/12) Odds of higher rates in July = 65.3% (was 73.9%) per Fed Funds futures pricing data via CME FedWatch Tool" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1668623751146258436) 2023-06-13T14:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@NickTimiraos @aduehren Several regional banks have been attracting deposits with very high savings account rates via the fintech Raisin. Here's a sample of the APYs and the banks: 5.10% @ $WAL ($71B) 5.12% @ $PACW ($44B) 5.10% @ $OCFC ($13B) 5.15% @ $CLBK ($10B) Keep an eye on their Q2 earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1672314793628147720) 2023-06-23T18:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bank of America nurses $100bn paper loss after big bet in bond market @FT But BofA has $370bn in cash and is not facing any SVB-like liquidity crunch. In fact BofA and other big banks have received inflows of deposits" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1674780854609121286) 2023-06-30T14:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Key Events This Week via @KobeissiLetter One event to note: June CPI release on Wednesday: CPI Consensus numbers: MoM: headline: +0.2% core: +0.3% YoY: headline: +3.0% core: +5.0%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1678047621460393984) 2023-07-09T15:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Several regional banks have been attracting deposits with high online savings account rates via the fintech Raisin. Here's a sample of the APYs the banks & asset sizes. 5.16% @ $PACW ($44B) 5.15% @ $WAL ($71B) 5.15% @ $OCFC ($13B) Others have used their own online divisions" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1679896682744430592) 2023-07-14T16:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Regional Banks Battle for Deposits With Tougher US Rules Looming @YahooFinance Example: Regional banks' online/mobile savings account yields (APY regional bank assets) 5.16% @ $PACW $44B 5.15% @ $WAL $71B 5.15% @ $OCFC $13B 5.00% @ $NYCB $124B 5.00% @ $VLY $64B Regional Banks Battle for Deposits With Tougher US Rules Looming https://t.co/6qED7tzJIt @yahoofinance https://t.co/uf9KX60Klq Regional Banks Battle for Deposits With Tougher US Rules Looming https://t.co/6qED7tzJIt @yahoofinance https://t.co/uf9KX60Klq" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1680986794773323777) 2023-07-17T17:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "For those looking into brokered CDs beware of callable CDs. These allow the issuing bank to close the CD early. If rates fall the odds of the bank calling the CD rises. In July I've seen callable long-term CD rates as much as [---] bps above the non-callable ones" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1686082389443846150) 2023-07-31T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "5 large regional banks are attracting deposits with high yield savings accounts via online/mobile divisions. Here's a sample of the APYs the banks & asset sizes: 5.05% @ $FCNC ($215B) 5.00% @ $KEY ($195B) 5.00% @ $NYCB ($124B) 5.00% @ $FHN ($80B) 5.00% @ $VLY ($64B)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1686442033043427343) 2023-08-01T18:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Hugh_Son Brokered deposits aren't the only hot money these days. Several regional banks now have online/mobile divisions offering 5% savings accounts eg $FCNC $KEY $NYCB $FHN & $VLY. Some are also using the new fintech Raisin to offer 5.20%+ savings accounts eg $PACW $WAL & $OCFC" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1690095122153693184) 2023-08-11T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@zerohedge inflation forecasts keep rising "Staff Economic Outlook" of the FOMC minutes: "by [----] total PCE price inflation was expected to be [---] percent and core inflation was expected to be [---] percent." Both are up from June SEP which had 2.1% for total PCE and 2.2% for core PCE" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1691877168454709454) 2023-08-16T18:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great chart of Treasury yields over the last [--] years by @charliebilello You have to go back to [----] to find T-bill yields this high but long-dated yields were much higher back then. Today's large yield curve inversion is concerning" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1692537228201771136) 2023-08-18T14:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "CD Specials from the [--] largest U.S. banks: Today's APYs: @Chase 6mo CD up to 5.00% @BankofAmerica 7mo CD up to 4.75% @Citi 9mo CD up to 4.90% @WellsFargo 11mo CD up to 5.16% Beware these will auto-renew into standard CDs which will likely have rates way below 1%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1692572753835049367) 2023-08-18T16:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Why the Era of Historically Low Interest Rates Could Be Over If neutral has gone up that could call for higher short-term interest rates or delay interest-rate cuts as inflation falls. It could also keep long-term bond yields higher for longer" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1693419533418045579) 2023-08-21T00:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Great and Awful Thing About These Interest Rates by @michaelbatnick "In the blink of an eye the Fed went from punishing savers to punishing borrowers."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1694765556035928530) 2023-08-24T17:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Key data & events for week ahead [--] key ones for the Fed: Thursday: July PCE inflation Friday: Aug jobs report" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1695970730729758932) 2023-08-28T01:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Odds of another Fed rate hike this year fell after today's JOLTS report: Odds of one or more rate hikes by November are now 50.2% down from 62.3% yesterday (per CME FedWatch Tool) Todays JOLTS report was near perfect. The job market is resilient but cooling off. The hiring and quit rates have normalized suggesting wage growth soon will. There are plenty of job openings but they are quickly declining. Compelling reasons for the Fed to end its rate hikes. Todays JOLTS report was near perfect. The job market is resilient but cooling off. The hiring and quit rates have normalized suggesting wage" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1696564398112886931) 2023-08-29T16:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Odds of another Fed rate hike fall slightly after today's jobs report. Odds of at least one rate hike by November = 43% per CME FedWatch Tool Taken at face value the US August #jobs report increases the probability that the highly data-dependent Fed will not hike again in this cycle as Job gains (including revisions) moderated (187000 and -110000); The unemployment rate went up to 3.8%; Labor force Taken at face value the US August #jobs report increases the probability that the highly data-dependent Fed will not hike again in this cycle as Job gains (including revisions) moderated (187000" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1697654310492926333) 2023-09-01T16:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "From today's FDIC Chairman remarks on Q2 Quarterly Banking Profile: "the second quarters deposit story appears to have been more about pricing pressures from depositors seeking higher yields often at nonbank financial institutions particularly money market mutual funds." This morning we released the latest quarterly report card on the state of our nations banks. Read more about the second quarter [----] performance results for FDIC-insured institutions ➡ https://t.co/HYXOHiPscM. https://t.co/bkvdEXiEFO This morning we released the latest quarterly report card on the state of our nations banks." [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1699829645363871916) 2023-09-07T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@psb_dc @FinTech_Futures @LedaGlyptis @stephfoster2020 @jasonhenrichs @Clagett @stessacohen @RAlexJimenez @efipm @dharmeshmistry @JimMarous Two important traits shared by many of the 50+ generation are: 1) they generally have more savings and 2) they are often more conservative with their savings. By conservative they're not only concerned with volatility/risk but also the trustworthiness of the institution" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1701265260680749105) 2023-09-11T16:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Rate hike @synchrony moves them ahead of most major online banks but still far behind rate leaders & MMFs. High Yield Savings Account: 4.50% 4.75% APY Interesting to note that PayPal Savings a service of Synchrony only pays 4.30% APY" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1701905018457149798) 2023-09-13T10:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "CD Specials from the [--] largest banks: Today's APYs: @Chase 6mo CD up to 5.00% @BankofAmerica [--] & 13mo CD up to 5.00% (New) @Citi 9mo CD up to 4.90% @WellsFargo 11mo CD up to 5.26% Beware these will auto-renew into low-rate standard CDs. For example BofA 7mo stnd CD = 0.03%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1701910702020055302) 2023-09-13T10:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Core CPI (that was "a touch firmer than expected") might have slightly raised the odds for a November Fed rate hike. Odds of a higher fed funds rate in Nov. per CME FedWatch Tool: 45.2% odds now vs 44.2% odds yesterday Core CPI inflation was a touch firmer than expected with a 0.28% increase in August That dropped the 12-month core inflation rate to 4.3% in Aug down from 4.7% in July Six-month annualized core CPI rate: 3.7% Three-month annualized core CPI rate: 2.4% https://t.co/9tTEPjxxG9 https://t.co/DrNO1udwui Core CPI inflation was a touch firmer than expected with a 0.28% increase in" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1701941172510261610) 2023-09-13T12:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My Fed meeting preview and deposit rate expectations Since the July Fed rate hike online banks haven't increased deposit rates much even as competition from new digital banks Treasurys and money market funds has grown" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1702035289445748773) 2023-09-13T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DividendGrowth "Each $1 invested at 10%/yr turns to $117 in [--] years" If you can add another [--] years for a total of [--] years each $1 invested turns into $304" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1702038273894264902) 2023-09-13T19:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Small rate hike at Marcus by Goldman Sachs today: @Marcus High-Yield Savings account: 4.30% 4.40% APY Interesting to note that Apple Savings (run by Goldman Sachs Bank) still only pays 4.15% APY. Way behind @Synchrony (4.75% APY) and rate leader (5.33% APY)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1702687434868219960) 2023-09-15T14:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Bank owned by private equity investors bets big on fund finance @reosti1967 for @AmerBanker "EverBank officially completed the brand makeover from TIAA. It's the second time around for EverBank which served as the company name from [----] until 2018."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1702756697142444137) 2023-09-15T18:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Treasury yields stats since 1990: Todays yields: Highest 10-yr yield since [----] Highest 3-mo yield since [----] Most inverted yield curve" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1703381743527502163) 2023-09-17T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "If the Fed is more worried about a hard landing in [----] we may see it in this week's SEP dot plot that the FOMC releases on Wednesday. In June [--] of [--] Fed officials penciled in a fed rate of at least 5.50%-5.75% for [----]. That number may fall this week" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1703822377308615080) 2023-09-18T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Rate Hike Milestone - Largest bank to date offers 5%+ savings account. BMO Alto Online Savings Account: 4.85% 5.10% APY No mins & no fees. BMO Alto is the online division of BMO Bank NA ($263B in assets)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1703828440225354012) 2023-09-18T17:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "5 large regional banks are attracting deposits with high yield savings accounts via digital bank divisions: $BMO ($263B) BMO Alto @ 5.10% $FCNC ($209B) CIT Bank @ 5.05% $KEY ($193B) Laurel Road @ 5.00% $NYCB ($119B) My Banking Direct @ 5.00% $VLY ($62B) Vallydirect @ 5.25%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1704176517637423178) 2023-09-19T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Review of FOMC meeting & impact on deposit rates Deposit rates are lower now than in [----]. Examples: In [----] Fed rate = 5.25% GMAC Bank (now Ally) APYs: MMA: 5.30% 5yr CD: 5.45% In [----] Fed rate = 5.25%-5.50% Ally Bank APYs: MMA: 4.40% 5yr CD: 4.10% https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/federal-funds-rate-hike/ https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/federal-funds-rate-hike/" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1704844040351498500) 2023-09-21T13:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "To match the after-tax return of a 1-year T-Bill a 1-year CD would need to have a much higher yield than 5.47% in states with income taxes. Examples using Fidelity's calculator CA: 6.01% GA: 5.99% IL: 5.93% MA: 5.93% NJ: 5.97% NY: 5.97% VA: 5.99%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1704868497929441281) 2023-09-21T14:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BankrateGreg @jmackin2 @WSJ "Almost every interest-rate cycle ends with rapid rate cuts" Wonder how the last cycle would have ended without the pandemic" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1705222597640675485) 2023-09-22T14:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "When Rates Drop They Usually Plunge. The Fed Thinks Different @jmackin2 for @WSJ "The Fed is hoping for something it has never managed before: not merely the softest of soft landings for the economy but the slowest rate-cutting cycle in its history" https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/interest-rates-drop-federal-reserve-e71f1892st=f8xzj673vn1ep4b https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/interest-rates-drop-federal-reserve-e71f1892st=f8xzj673vn1ep4b" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1705225209609880002) 2023-09-22T14:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great chart of the history of Treasury yields by @charliebilello Sample of CD yields to match the after-tax earnings of today's Treasurys in a state w/state-income tax. 3mo: 6.13% 6mo: 6.07% 1yr: 6.00% 2yr: 5.62% 5yr: 5.06% chose CA + $100k/yr income" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1705228927201886626) 2023-09-22T14:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Only [--] of the top [--] tech companies in [----] outperformed the S&P [---] over the last [--] years Yikes that righthand column. 🤔 From a good compendium of charts assembled by Danny Noonan @MorningstarInc https://t.co/jnBVTIJbU3 https://t.co/chXb1if421 Yikes that righthand column. 🤔 From a good compendium of charts assembled by Danny Noonan @MorningstarInc https://t.co/jnBVTIJbU3 https://t.co/chXb1if421" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1705919480327475423) 2023-09-24T12:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Banks Fearing a Liquidity Crunch Pay More to Cling to Cash l Bloomberg via @YahooFinance Banks are paying up to protect their cash holdings from sinking further and to safeguard against future runs on deposits" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1706106016381784263) 2023-09-25T00:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Why Do Bond Yields Keep Rising via @MorningstarInc "bond yields were supposed to be heading lower. Instead the opposite is happening. Yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds . have risen to their highest level since October 2007."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1706319975516864575) 2023-09-25T14:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Key data releases for the week ahead by @Econ_Parker Aug PCE comes out Friday: "Aug PCE inflation is expected to accelerate to 0.5% m/m from 0.2% in July even as core inflation is likely to remain relatively unchanged at 0.2% consistent with the earlier Aug CPI release."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1706323629623935047) 2023-09-25T15:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Want This 6% CD You Have to Have $5 Million @RachelEnsignWSJ for @WSJ "Chase is offering customers of its private bank division a 6% rate on a six-month certificate of deposit if they put $5 million or more into the product."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1707450194407604390) 2023-09-28T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For retail bank customers 5% is now available from the big banks: @Chase 6mo CD up to 5.00% APY @BankofAmerica [--] & 13mo CD up to 5.00% APY @WellsFargo 11mo CD up to 5.26% APY But these CD Specials auto renew into low-rate standard CDs. Online banks & MMFs are better options" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1707450196626493565) 2023-09-28T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Odds of another Fed rate hike are falling after todays PCE inflation data release. Odds of another hike at any of the next [--] Fed meetings are down to 33% (per CME FedWatch Tool)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1707770026541900020) 2023-09-29T14:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ".@CFPB reports on its efforts to ensure companies delete disputed unverified information from consumer credit reports. To dispute an error on your credit report check out this CFPB resource:" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1707807271433154601) 2023-09-29T17:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#OnThisDay in [----] marks the end of Wachovia Bank (the 4th largest bank). FDIC first announced Citigroup's acquisition of Wachovia. Then on Oct 3rd the deal was replaced by Wells Fargo's acquisition of Wachovia without FDIC help. Citigroup filed suit" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1707820832536563924) 2023-09-29T18:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "One of the largest MMFs the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund ($VMFXX) now has a compound yield of 5.42% (7 day SEC yield of 5.29%)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1707864225501036658) 2023-09-29T21:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Based on how Core PCE inflation is progressing it seems unlikely that the Fed will hike again this year" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1708085331134763114) 2023-09-30T11:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Rising Rates Likely Hit Bank Balance Sheets in Quarter @JonathanWeil for @WSJ "That has led to earnings pressure for many banks now paying higher rates on deposits and other funding sources while the returns on their older fixed-rate assets stay low."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1708833363841208351) 2023-10-02T13:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "15 years ago on Oct [--] [----] basic FDIC insurance coverage was increased from $100k to $250k as part of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. The increase was temporary but it was made permanent on July [--] [----] when the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform became law" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1709158051519881257) 2023-10-03T10:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "More credit unions are offering 6%+ CD Specials. Online banks have currently peaked at 5.77% APY. Latest CD Special is from a MA credit union (6.00% APY [--] mo). Like many banks & CUs its standard CD rates remain very low" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1709166396049940600) 2023-10-03T11:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Ten-Year Treasury Yield Closes Above 4.8% @WSJ "Treasury yields have been surging for weeks but got an extra boost Tuesday after new data showed that job openings had unexpectedly jumped in August."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1709305081277927890) 2023-10-03T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@WallStGunslingr @BrianFeroldi Unfortunately schools often teach stock picking instead of index fund investing. "Every year more than a million high-school students across the U.S. learn about investing through stock-picking games."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1709960032194904569) 2023-10-05T15:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Odds of a November Fed rate hike up after the jobs report. Market pricing in odds of a hike at 31.4% up from 20.1% yesterday (per CME FedWatch Tool)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1710275810823721203) 2023-10-06T12:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "100s of small banks and CUs have been offering high-yield reward checking accounts for 10+ years. Two main caveats are debit card requirements and a balance cap. Heres a review of one that has been around for 13+ years and pays 6.17% APY on up to $25k" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1711345610870140929) 2023-10-09T11:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Review of Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's speech and its implications on future fed funds rate: "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate. "" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1711392589855785245) 2023-10-09T14:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "One of the key events this week is the release of Sep CPI on Thurs. With Sep CPI-U the November I Bond inflation rate can be calculated. Forecasts for the Sep CPI (YoY/MoM) CPI: 3.6% & 0.3% Core CPI: 4.1% & 0.3% Hotter than expected CPI could move the Fed to hike in Nov" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1711405216090747202) 2023-10-09T15:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "More credit unions are offering 6%+ CD Specials. Online banks have currently peaked at 5.77% APY. Latest CD Special is from a NH credit union (6.00% APY [--] mo). Residents of NH & parts of MA VT & ME are eligible. #CreditUnions" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1711772308946264158) 2023-10-10T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "FOMC minutes: "A majority of participants judged that one more increase in the target federal funds rate at a future meeting would likely be appropriate." Odds of a Fed rate hike (via CME FedWatch Tool) Nov: 8.5% (down from 13.2% yesterday) Dec: 27.9% (up from 27.1% yesterday)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1712187931668955206) 2023-10-11T19:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Average online 1-year CD yield as of Oct 1st: 5.18% up from 5.10% on Sep 1st. Average is based on 1-year CDs from [--] well-established online banks" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1712277287901581455) 2023-10-12T01:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Average online 5-year CD yield as of Oct 1st: 3.95% no change from Sep 1st. Average is based on 5-year CDs from [--] well-established online banks. Chart compares the online 5-year CD yield average to the fed funds rate & to the 5-year T-note yield:" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1712277289830941083) 2023-10-12T01:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ".@KobeissiLetter makes a good point regarding today's CPI report. "3.7% inflation is building on 8.2% in September [----] and 5.4% in September 2021." Cumulative inflation from [----] to [----] = 18.9% greater than Cumulative inf from [----] to [----] = 18.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1712540528322208062) 2023-10-12T18:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My review of todays CPI report and its impact on I Bond decisions Nov I Bond inflation rate should be 3.94%. I Bond purchased late Oct and redeemed early Jan [----] would yield just under 4%. Top CDs are better options (todays best deal: 6% APY 12-17mo)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1712543922390708696) 2023-10-12T19:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Barchart Important to note this excerpt regarding what Jamie Dimon sees as contributing to today's dangerous times: "Beyond the military conflicts in Ukraine and Israel Dimon cited the burgeoning national debt and the largest peacetime fiscal deficits ever."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1712855512436318439) 2023-10-13T15:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@cadeinvests Wish I had invested in $SPY (the OG of ETFs) [--] years ago. Its annual total returns over the last [--] years has been 9.67%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1712866220351914453) 2023-10-13T16:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "More credit unions are offering 6%+ CD Specials. Online banks have currently peaked at 5.77% APY. Latest CD special (6.09% APY 6mo) is from a Virginia credit union. Residents of DC KY MD NC TN VA & WV are eligible. #CreditUnions" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1712867683908067747) 2023-10-13T16:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Big Banks Say Trouble Is Coming But Their Earnings Are Still Strong @WSJ "The banks have been able to raise the rates they charge on loans faster than they increase their payouts on deposits. But deposit costs are starting to catch up."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1712914493263519845) 2023-10-13T19:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Instead of raising savings account rates or standard CD rates they've been offering short-term CD Specials: CD Specials (APYs) $JPM 6mo CD up to 5.00% $C 11mo CD up to 5.05% $WFC 11mo CD up to 5.26% Savings Accounts (APYs) $JPM 0.01% $C 0.12% (branch) $WFC 0.15%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1712922349270446388) 2023-10-13T20:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Worst Bond Bear Market in History by @awealthofcs Sure rates and inflation could keep going up from here. But interest rates are now much higher to act as a margin of safety. That didnt exist at the outset of this bear market" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1713349982231609509) 2023-10-15T00:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Useful overview of stock investing and total returns" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1713710135237808149) 2023-10-16T00:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Notable bank earnings this week: Tuesday: $BAC $GS Wednesday: $MS $USB $MTB $ALLY $FHN $DFS $ZION Thursday: $KEY $TFC $WAL Friday: $AXP $CMA $HBAN $RF First FULL week of earnings kick off this week I will be busy pushing out Earnings Updates to premium subscribers to the Dividend Investors Edge Notable Earnings this week: $SCHW $BAC $LMT $GS $JNJ $PLD $ASML $PG $ABT $TSLA $NFLX $CCI $T $UNP $AXP What's on your BUY list https://t.co/VX8o8bUG7b First FULL week of earnings kick off this week I will be busy pushing out Earnings Updates to premium subscribers to the Dividend Investors Edge Notable" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1713934787444937007) 2023-10-16T15:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Key economic events this week via @KobeissiLetter Regarding the Fed speakers two important ones to watch for signs for or against another rate hike: Wednesday speech by Fed Governor Waller Thursday speech by Fed Chair Powell" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1713940589664743824) 2023-10-16T15:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Why high rates may be here to stay by @zerohedge The inflation problem has been stubborn and if the rising interest payments are paid with more borrowing as opposed to fiscal restraint inflation will only worsen triggering more interest hikes and more interest payments" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1713951746395963550) 2023-10-16T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@KobeissiLetter Perhaps it's time to consider an S&P [---] Equal Weight ETF (smart beta). The oldest one $RSP has slightly outperformed $SPY over the last [--] years. 20-year annual total returns: $SPY = 9.41% $RSP = 9.46% % of total assets of top [--] holdings: $SPY = 30.51% $RSP = 2.20%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1713983899833979138) 2023-10-16T18:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bank of America's Q3 earnings report shows how much they profited from their low deposit rates. "Blended cash and securities yield continued to improve in 3Q23 and is [---] bps above deposit rate paid."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1714290206445379619) 2023-10-17T14:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My review of today's top online savings account Popular Direct Select Savings. APY = 5.40% with no min balance One downside: Popular Direct is another online bank with a history of creating new savings accounts. Select Savings is third one this year" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1714385195204223270) 2023-10-17T20:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Liquid account rates survey Top yields of liquid accounts (APY/cmp yield) 5.70% - No Penalty CDs 5.41% - MM Funds ($VMFXX) 5.40% - Online savings accounts (OSA) 4.43% = Avg OSA yield as of Oct 1st" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1714824982285410651) 2023-10-19T02:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Jerome Powell Signals Fed Will Extend Interest-Rate Pause @NickTimiraos "Powells remarks closely tracked those of his colleagues in recent days who have suggested they are prepared to hold short-term interest rates steady at their next meeting"" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1715094043166744656) 2023-10-19T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Odds of a rate hike at the Oct 31/Nov [--] Fed meeting have fallen to only 0.5% down from 6.6% yesterday and down from 13.3% last week (via CME FedWatch Tool)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1715094044945142067) 2023-10-19T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Ivy Bank High-Yield Savings: 5.30% APY on up to $1 million APY guaranteed through 6/30/24 Account review:" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1715097465882313039) 2023-10-19T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Crypto companies touting FDIC insurance Not so fast. @FTC "Despite its claims Voyager was never an FDIC insured bank. . So when Voyager eventually failed and filed for bankruptcy people with accounts were locked out and lost money."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1715442454206251434) 2023-10-20T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "More credit unions are offering 6%+ CD Specials. Online banks have currently peaked at 5.80% APY. Latest CD special (6.00% APY 7-mo) is from a FL credit union. [--] others credit unions are also offering 6%+ CDs. Only one is nationally available" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1715444465278611888) 2023-10-20T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Best list Ive seen describing why day trading is not the path to wealth by @GrahamStephan 99.9% of people would have better returns gambling than day trading (but I'd suggest investing in an Index Fund)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1715852780630409712) 2023-10-21T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Odds of another Fed rate hike are slowly falling Most of the sell-side banks and other Fed tip-sheets continue to think the FOMC has made its last rate increase for the current cycle. A handful anticipate a rate hike in December or early next year. https://t.co/pFWRRgBsi4 Most of the sell-side banks and other Fed tip-sheets continue to think the FOMC has made its last rate increase for the current cycle. A handful anticipate a rate hike in December or early next year. https://t.co/pFWRRgBsi4" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1716502801918927135) 2023-10-23T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@cvpayne You can find short-term CDs paying 6% APY at several credit unions. Online banks are paying up to 5.80% APY on short-term CDs. If you live in states with state income tax T-bills and T-notes (which are exempt from state income tax) are better deals now" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1716528750416773291) 2023-10-23T18:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Average online 1-year CD yield as of Oct 1st: 5.18% up from 5.10% on Sep 1st. This will likely rise in November. Average is based on 1-year CDs from [--] well-established online banks" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1717357490449387639) 2023-10-26T01:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Average online 5-year CD yield as of Oct 1st: 3.95% no change from Sep 1st. Average is based on 5-yr CDs from [--] well-established online banks. Should rise a bit in Nov. Chart compares the online 5-yr CD avg yield to the fed rate & 5-yr T-note yield:" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1717357492219375848) 2023-10-26T01:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Core PCE inflation the Fed's preferred inflation measure came in line with consensus forecasts" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1717972890660876333) 2023-10-27T18:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "From @WSJ on PCE: "Fed officials projected core inflation would fall to 3.7% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. Fridays report suggests inflation would end the year below that projection which could strengthen the case to hold rates steady."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1717972892414054873) 2023-10-27T18:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fintech problems: "Evolve Bank & Trust which had been the companys primary banking partner notified Synapse that it planned to end their relationship" "The breakup has turned messy after the discovery of a $14 million hole in a Synapse account at Evolve holding client funds"" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1717980481411510771) 2023-10-27T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Higher Bond Yields Could End the Feds Historic Rate Rises @NickTimiraos for @WSJ Why we might be at the peak federal funds rate now: "Some economists say the rise in yields term premium is worth two or three Fed rate hikes"" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1719056444144615456) 2023-10-30T18:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""beyond the next FOMC meeting markets rarely ever forecast correctly."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1719057714771292547) 2023-10-30T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Money market funds will likely attract deposits even from online banks. Example of MMF yield advantages over online savings accounts: Vanguard Federal MMF = 5.43% cmp yield Marcus savings account = 4.40% APY AMEX savings account = 4.30% APY Ally savings account = 4.25% APY" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1720231707800903888) 2023-11-03T00:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Why Banks Are Suddenly Closing Down Customer Accounts @nytimes via @YahooNews Article details the practices of many banks to close accounts when customers' transactions are flagged as suspicious. Many innocent customers are hit with no recourse" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1721561730499609050) 2023-11-06T16:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Average online 1-year CD yield as of Nov 1st: 5.29% up from 5.19% on Oct 1st. Average is based on 1-year CDs from [--] well-established online banks" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1722446401806668234) 2023-11-09T02:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Average online 5-year CD yield as of Nov 1st: 3.98% up from 3.95% on Oct 1st. Average is based on 5-yr CDs from [--] well-established online banks. Chart compares the online 5-yr CD avg yield to the fed rate & 5-yr T-note yield:" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1722446403366998308) 2023-11-09T02:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Cooling Inflation Likely Ends Fed Rate Hikes @WSJ "A broad slowdown in inflation continued in October likely ending the Federal Reserves historic interest-rate increases. "" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1724460304925446249) 2023-11-14T16:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fed's preferred measure of inflation PCE Price Index for October is scheduled for release on November [--]. If Core PCE comes in as expected based on Oct CPI & PPI numbers this will be more support for the Fed to hold rates steady at its Dec 12-13 meeting" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1724886638550044756) 2023-11-15T20:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "JPMorgan Chase accused of de-banking defaming a Florida business @Orla_McCaffrey for @AmerBanker "Sinai Holdings . alleges in a complaint filed last week that JPMorgan closed business accounts with little warning and poisoned its business relationships with misinformation"" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1726720426318135601) 2023-11-20T21:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "One of the key economic data releases this week is on Thursday. The Feds preferred inflation gauge core PCE is expected to be 0.2% m/m (3.5% y/y) for Oct. down from 0.3% for Sep. (3.7% y/y)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1728825587966619726) 2023-11-26T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Odds of a Fed rate hike at the Dec 12-13 meeting has fallen to almost zero (0.8%) from 4.6% yesterday (per CME FedWatch Tool)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1729523940496728294) 2023-11-28T15:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As part of a useful primer on yield curve inversions this thread by @MacroAlf includes this insightful graphic on what drives bond yields" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1729533314082517408) 2023-11-28T16:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Noteworthy excerpts from FDIC's Q3 Banking Profile: "Unrealized losses on securities totaled $683.9 billion in the third quarter up $125.5 billion (22.5 percent) from the prior quarter." "Loans that were [--] days or more past due . increased to [----] percent of total loans"" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1729961367799534065) 2023-11-29T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Jobs report lowers odds of Fed rate cuts in early [----] Odds of a Fed rate cut by Fed's March 19-20 meeting: 52.2% down from 64.5% yesterday per CME FedWatch Tool" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1733148363061612701) 2023-12-08T15:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Risk of bank apps: "They grab cellphones and demand pass codes to banking apps like Zelle and Venmo. A Chicago architect who lost more than $2000 that way says: Dont have any banking apps on your phone."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1733177830333100420) 2023-12-08T17:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Economic events for this week. Two to note: CPI report on Tuesday and FOMC meeting statement & economic projections on Wednesday" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1733998958244974646) 2023-12-10T23:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A New Era of Income Investing Is Turning Boomers Into Bond Buyers @WSJ "Stock bull markets helped make boomers rich. High bond yields are helping them retire."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1734224575297175703) 2023-12-11T14:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Why banks may still face pain on deposit costs next year @polorocha18 for @AmerBanker "Some banks are starting to cut CD rates now that the odds of Fed rate cuts are rising according to Ken Tumin of" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1734544827142840694) 2023-12-12T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Sticky core CPI may contribute to the Fed delaying its first rate cut. We may see this in the dot plot of the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections that'll be released on Wednesday" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1734578346669855186) 2023-12-12T14:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Good point by @TipsWatch if the Fed continues lowering its balance sheet the yield curve should steepen making longer-term TIPS relatively more attractive" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1735317492535332962) 2023-12-14T15:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Market expectations for a March Fed rate cut may be premature" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1736790241040580893) 2023-12-18T16:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "How the Fintech Rally Could Fizzle in [----] @telisdemos for @WSJ "Falling interest rates might be a surprising challenge" "Investors in [----] are also unlikely to totally set aside credit risk even if a soft landing is the envisioned outcome."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1736796297850450014) 2023-12-18T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Odds of at least [--] Fed rate cuts in [----] are now over 60% per CME FedWatch Tool. Fed's December dot plot shows [--] rate cuts in 2024" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1737255577128931753) 2023-12-19T23:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bond yields have been plummeting" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1737485211552625006) 2023-12-20T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Small rate hike at Marcus by Goldman Sachs today: @Marcus High-Yield Savings account: 4.40% 4.50% APY (Apple Savings run by Goldman still only pays 4.15% APY.) @Marcus 13mo No-Penalty CD APY increased to 4.70%. Earn 4.70% into [----] with no real loss of liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1737499906175111272) 2023-12-20T15:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Small rate hike at @Ally today Online Savings Account: 4.25% 4.35% APY Money Market Account remains at 4.40% APY & 11mo No Penalty CD remains at 4.55% APY. Another option is to open an Ally Invest account & move money into MMFs ($VMFXX compound yield at 5.43%)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1738185396943835298) 2023-12-22T13:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@JonErlichman The Jetsons came out in [----] and some of its future visions came true such as the videophone. Not sure if anyone used email in the series. One major thing that we still dont have in the mass market is flying cars. https://nypost.com/2022/07/31/what-the-jetsons-predicted-right-and-wrong-about-the-future/ https://nypost.com/2022/07/31/what-the-jetsons-predicted-right-and-wrong-about-the-future/" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1738945675490927045) 2023-12-24T15:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Only [--] years ago. Merry Christmas The World Wide Web was first tested on Christmas Day in [----]. Tim Berners-Lee and Robert Cailliau set up successful communication between a web browser & server via the Internet. https://t.co/wkPPaoNhNH The World Wide Web was first tested on Christmas Day in [----]. Tim Berners-Lee and Robert Cailliau set up successful communication between a web browser & server via the Internet. https://t.co/wkPPaoNhNH" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1739355359804830041) 2023-12-25T18:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Japan Banks Finally Reward Long-Suffering Savers With 0.2% Rate @business "Three major Japanese banks lifted the rate on their 10-year deposits to 0.2% from 0.002% minuscule moves that signal looming shifts in the banking landscape."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1739721037321814225) 2023-12-26T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "With years of zero rates it's amazing how much more Japanese household money is in deposits instead of stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1739721039771218066) 2023-12-26T18:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Japan's central bank policy rate hasn't been above 0.50% since [----]. It has been -0.1% since 2016" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1739721041792868388) 2023-12-26T18:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Market expectations for Fed rate cuts are rising. Odds of a March Fed rate cut are now 88.3% up from 79.0% last week. Market expectations for Fed Funds Rate path. -Jan [--] 2024: Pause -Mar [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 5.00-5.25% -May [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 4.75-5.00% -June [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 4.50-4.75% -July [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 4.25-4.50% -Additional cuts to 3.14% by Dec [----] https://t.co/7qF3lBLKsQ Market expectations for Fed Funds Rate path. -Jan [--] 2024: Pause -Mar [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 5.00-5.25% -May [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 4.75-5.00% -June [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 4.50-4.75% -July [--] 2024:" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1740053618060148933) 2023-12-27T16:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great thread of the [----] bank failures by @Hugh_Son [----] was a big year for the banking world 🌎 For starters that thing in March. A good reminder that "institutions" are run by flesh & blood who occasionally f--k up in serious ways 👇 https://t.co/7IeDuq40IG [--] of [--] [----] was a big year for the banking world 🌎 For starters that thing in March. A good reminder that "institutions" are run by flesh & blood who occasionally f--k up in serious ways 👇 https://t.co/7IeDuq40IG [--] of 10" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1740392429331857602) 2023-12-28T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Yield Curve (10yr-3mo) has been inverted since October [----]. Treasuries: -3-Month yield ends the year at 5.4% highest year-end yield since [----]. Investors are betting this won't last w/ Fed cuts starting in March. -10-Yr yield of 3.88% is exactly where it entered the year. Closing high was 4.98% on Oct [--]. -Yield Curve remains inverted. https://t.co/WWRwDERlvq Treasuries: -3-Month yield ends the year at 5.4% highest year-end yield since [----]. Investors are betting this won't last w/ Fed cuts starting in March. -10-Yr yield of 3.88% is exactly where it entered the year. Closing high was" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1741090978558247036) 2023-12-30T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Adding Bitcoin Blows Away the Balanced Portfolio. Why This Advisor Still Isnt Buying It @DPWienerAdviser for @barronsonline With the first spot bitcoin ETF likely to come in January should it be added to a 60/40 portfolio Some insightful thoughts" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1741106541996974099) 2023-12-30T14:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""fintechs are launching new products that aim to make it easier and more affordable for individual investors to gain exposure to fixed-income products like Treasuries and corporate bonds." Analysis-US #fintechs push into fixed-income trading as retail investor interest grows https://t.co/USn0njh1vr @yahoofinance https://t.co/3aOI5P9Jgs Analysis-US #fintechs push into fixed-income trading as retail investor interest grows https://t.co/USn0njh1vr @yahoofinance https://t.co/3aOI5P9Jgs" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1742251305471746170) 2024-01-02T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Fed Minutes Suggest Hikes Are Over But Offer No Timetable on Cuts @NickTimiraos for @WSJ "minutes of the meeting didnt show a meaningful debate about when to start lowering rates." Odds of a March rate cut are now 72.6% down from 79.0% yesterday and 90.2% a week ago. Fed officials thought they were probably done raising interest rates when they decided last month to hold rates steady but minutes of the meeting didnt show a meaningful debate about when to start lowering rates https://t.co/ZzyNKAp88d Fed officials thought they were probably done raising interest rates when they decided last" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1742635758404370508) 2024-01-03T19:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@StealthQE4 A TIPS ladder combined with a stock index fund has advantages over fixed annuities. A good review of this at" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743091963170115951) 2024-01-05T02:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "More jobs added than expected in Jobs Report Odds of March Fed rate cut fall from 66.3% to 57.1% (per Feds Funds futures market via CME FedWatch Tool) Nonfarm payrolls +216K (vs. +170K expected) - Nov revised down to +173K from +199K Oct revised to +105K from +150K Unemployment +3.7% (vs. 3.8% exp) Avg hourly earnings +0.44% in Dec (+0.3% exp) https://t.co/41Ntjuw5tC Nonfarm payrolls +216K (vs. +170K expected) - Nov revised down to +173K from +199K Oct revised to +105K from +150K Unemployment +3.7% (vs. 3.8% exp) Avg hourly earnings +0.44% in Dec (+0.3% exp) https://t.co/41Ntjuw5tC" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1743268729960493116) 2024-01-05T13:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Key economic events this week via @KobeissiLetter One to note: [--]. December CPI Inflation data - Thursday Consensus numbers: core CPI: 0.2% (MoM) 3.9% (YoY) November numbers: core CPI: 0.3% (MoM) 4.0% (YoY) Key Events This Week: [--]. 10-Year Note Auction - Wednesday [--]. Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday [--]. December CPI Inflation data - Thursday [--]. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday [--]. December PPI Inflation data - Friday [--]. Total of [--] Fed Members Speak Crucial inflation data Key Events This Week: [--]. 10-Year Note Auction - Wednesday [--]. Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday [--]. December CPI Inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1744011174696415538) 2024-01-07T15:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "US regional bank profits to be squeezed by pressure to pay for deposits @YahooFinance "the second-largest U.S. lender Bank of America pays an average 0.34% to consumer depositors while Utah-based Zions Bancorp pays about 2.10% for deposits and interest-bearing liabilities" Analysis-US regional bank profits to be squeezed by pressure to pay for deposits https://t.co/zRGi4dZIKQ @yahoofinance https://t.co/oPGdVxld2T Analysis-US regional bank profits to be squeezed by pressure to pay for deposits https://t.co/zRGi4dZIKQ @yahoofinance https://t.co/oPGdVxld2T" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1744723801068490917) 2024-01-09T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Here. Should You Invest @MstarArmour for @MorningstarInc Great overview of the new spot bitcoin ETFs and issues to consider before deciding to invest Choose your bitcoin ETF fighter wisely https://t.co/hM6h4W2H1Y https://t.co/6U1OooIAFO Choose your bitcoin ETF fighter wisely https://t.co/hM6h4W2H1Y https://t.co/6U1OooIAFO" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1745505168882270617) 2024-01-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "After today's PPI data and yesterday's CPI data odds of a March Fed rate cut is now 75.8% up from 68.1% last week (per Fed Funds futures market via CME FedWatch Tool) PPI--the 'Producer Price Index' the prices firms pay for before selling to consumers--was negative last month muted on an annual basis a) good news for the Fed's self-professed key inflation gauge: PCE b) will pad corporate margins if savings aren't passed along to consumers https://t.co/zUbZ4eQvTD PPI--the 'Producer Price Index' the prices firms pay for before selling to consumers--was negative last month muted on an annual" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745804790687314290) 2024-01-12T13:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Rick_Ferri Chasing performance may encourage many to just go with $VOO or $VTI since domestic stocks have outperformed international. But for diversification $VT and $VXUS still makes sense. 10-year average total annual returns: 12.0% $VOO 11.5% $VTI 4.1% $VXUS 8.1% $VT" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1745857798842257591) 2024-01-12T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@WOLF_Financial $VXUS for international exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1747806833849376986) 2024-01-18T02:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Happy Birthday to Peter Lynch who turns [--] today Fidelitys legendary fund manager retired in [----] at the age of [--]. As @DividendGrowth described Peter Lynch can teach us a lot about having enough Peter Lynch can teach us a lot about having "enough" He achieved his success and made a lot of money But he retired at age [--] to live life on his own terms He spent more time with his family and his charitable causes A more rounded life is a richer life in my opinion https://t.co/erm27tDb0O Peter Lynch can teach us a lot about having "enough" He achieved his success and made a lot of money But he" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1748284982039052557) 2024-01-19T10:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DividendGrowth My favorite one: [--]. Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1748359440779149406) 2024-01-19T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@charliebilello Money market fund yields will quickly fall with the Fed rate cuts. The recent rise in CD holdings show that people are locking into CDs before rates fall. Banks have taken advantage of this. CD rates have been falling since November" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1748759821686394964) 2024-01-20T17:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@tanya_t___ Yup [--] isnt old. My dad retired at [--] and lived to [--]. Fortunately he had a government pension that was indexed to inflation. In todays world pensions and esp. those indexed to inflation are history. So its very important to start investing when youre young" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1748793543248756964) 2024-01-20T19:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Key Economic Events This Week by @KobeissiLetter My note: PCE price index Feds preferred inflation gauge for December to be released Friday. Forecasts for December Core PCE: 0.17% m/m & 2.9% y/y November Core PCE: 0.06% m/m & 3.2% y/y Key Events This Week: [--]. Manufacturing PMI data - Wednesday [--]. Core Durable Goods Orders - Thursday [--]. Q4 [----] GDP data - Thursday [--]. New Home Sales data - Thursday [--]. December PCE Inflation data - Friday [--]. 20% of S&P [---] companies report earnings We are [--] week out Key Events This Week: [--]. Manufacturing PMI data - Wednesday [--]. Core Durable Goods Orders -" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1749204332656959898) 2024-01-21T22:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great chart that shows why time in the market beats timing the market By trying to avoid the worst days investors also avoid the best days as well This is why time in the market beats timing the market https://t.co/gwHZ2A2w96 By trying to avoid the worst days investors also avoid the best days as well This is why time in the market beats timing the market https://t.co/gwHZ2A2w96" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1749424319929659472) 2024-01-22T13:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Insights into Ally Bank's deposit pricing plans in @allyfinancial's Q4 Earnings Call: Ally's CFO: "With a tightening cycle potentially behind us we are confident the company is set up for meaningful earnings expansion . We see a clear path to 4% net interest margin" 1/3" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1749516680034677063) 2024-01-22T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just learned of a bizarre bank acquisition In October the FDIC reported that Plus International Bank acquired Emigrant Bank and changed its name to Emigrant Bank. Emigrant Bank now has the Certificate # of Plus International Bank (57083). 1/4" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1749529926099706022) 2024-01-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Broadest Vanguard Stock Fund Available @DanielSotiroff for @MorningstarInc Useful basic overview of Vanguard Total World Stock Index ($VTWAX) and the ETF version Vanguard Total World Stock ETF ($VT) Investors get access to the entire global stock market in this low-cost #Vanguard fund. https://t.co/ACEXgfB81W Investors get access to the entire global stock market in this low-cost #Vanguard fund. https://t.co/ACEXgfB81W" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1750300920670232677) 2024-01-24T23:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "GDP report: economy grew at a faster rate than expected in Q4. This should lower the odds of a March Fed rate cut. 🔸 Strong U.S. Growth Cools Bets On March Interest Rate Cut The strong 3.3% U.S. GDP growth rate in 4Q cools bets that interest rates would be cut in March. While the government's advance estimate is slower than the 4.9% pace in 3Q it's faster than the 2% consensus. The number 🔸 Strong U.S. Growth Cools Bets On March Interest Rate Cut The strong 3.3% U.S. GDP growth rate in 4Q cools bets that interest rates would be cut in March. While the government's advance estimate is slower" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1750553250783261182) 2024-01-25T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Could higher interest rates be the new normal Nice surprise with BEA report showing GDP increasing at an annual rate of 3.3% in the 4th qtr higher than expected. Amidst clamoring for rate cuts could it be that higher interest rates are compatible with if not supportive of strong sustainable economic growth Nice surprise with BEA report showing GDP increasing at an annual rate of 3.3% in the 4th qtr higher than expected. Amidst clamoring for rate cuts could it be that higher interest rates are compatible with if not supportive of strong sustainable economic growth" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1750626540855996536) 2024-01-25T21:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Why Is Everyone Always Wrong About the Fed @MorningstarInc "Tradersand the Fed itselfare notoriously bad at predicting interest rate moves. Will expectations of rate cuts in [----] be any different"" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1752025583129673916) 2024-01-29T17:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""US regional bank executives say the pressure to pay up to keep depositors from leaving which cut profits last year is easing paving the way for better earnings" This is another reason for falling CD rates in the last month. US regional banks hope for profit revival as pain from SVB fallout eases https://t.co/86FDBiJIC3 @FT https://t.co/igUG0yhmkw US regional banks hope for profit revival as pain from SVB fallout eases https://t.co/86FDBiJIC3 @FT https://t.co/igUG0yhmkw" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1752056836767805611) 2024-01-29T19:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Helpful thread on bear steepening of the yield curve by @MacroAlf Over the last month an interesting behavior in bond markets is back. The yield curve is bear steepening again. What does it mean and why does it matter 1/ https://t.co/tNzMuFDlRv Over the last month an interesting behavior in bond markets is back. The yield curve is bear steepening again. What does it mean and why does it matter 1/ https://t.co/tNzMuFDlRv" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1752335456648282623) 2024-01-30T14:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BrianFeroldi Good reason to stick with a broad market index fund/ETF. $SPY was started in [----] and its annual total return for [--] years had been about 10%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1752337167622213955) 2024-01-30T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DividendGrowth Lots of investment milestones in the 1920s. $MITTX is about [--] years older than Vanguard Wellington Fund ($VWELX). Its the nation's oldest balanced fund (founded in 1929). Annual total return since its inception is 8.26%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1752691643482869909) 2024-01-31T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@FDICgov Regarding helping consumers spot "FAKE banks" the bankfind tool still appears unable to verify the secondary URLs of banks. For example it can no longer recognize as owned by First National Bank of Omaha. This secondary URL is over [--] years old" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1752759066391134470) 2024-01-31T18:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Regional Bank Stocks Fall After New York Community Bancorp Cuts Dividend Posts Loss @WillFOIA for @WSJ" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1752764492465791262) 2024-01-31T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Today's strong jobs report lowers odds of a Fed rate cut in March. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March moved under 20% after the stronger-than-expected employment report. A month ago markets were pricing in a 70% probability. https://t.co/W5XylFd23e The odds of a Fed rate cut in March moved under 20% after the stronger-than-expected employment report. A month ago markets were pricing in a 70% probability. https://t.co/W5XylFd23e" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1753455496579715222) 2024-02-02T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A stealthy way for a bank to move out of New York I reviewed Emigrant Bank's odd acquisition of a small FL-based bank and how it ended its NY state charter. The new Emigrant Bank now has FL state charter. Its online divisions are well known by savers" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1753523869225226721) 2024-02-02T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Important to understand the difference between disinflation and deflation One of the biggest misconceptions about inflation: Over the last few months many influential figures and publications have asked the same question. "Why are prices still rising if inflation is falling" The process of inflation coming down is called disinflation but we still https://t.co/GTPHc3xN3e One of the biggest misconceptions about inflation: Over the last few months many influential figures and publications have asked the same question. "Why are prices still rising if inflation is falling" The process of inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1754217771779387671) 2024-02-04T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "According to the FDIC FL-based Plus International Bank ($49 million in assets) acquired NY-based Emigrant Bank ($6.4 BILLION in assets). The outcome is a new FL-based Emigrant Bank. Emigrant Bank is well known to many savers due its [--] online banks" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1754527235669635532) 2024-02-05T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "News on LendingClub Bank being released from an OCC operating agreement by @The_Bank_Slate Coincidentally just last week LendingClubs High-Yield Savings account had its largest rate hike since Jan [----] (rising [--] bps to 5.00% APY). LendingClub $LC has been released from an @USOCC operating agreement tied to its [----] purchase of Radius Bancorp. https://t.co/fMx1Z7croo LendingClub $LC has been released from an @USOCC operating agreement tied to its [----] purchase of Radius Bancorp. https://t.co/fMx1Z7croo" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1754637051553563104) 2024-02-05T22:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "People who exit the stock market to avoid a decline are odds-on favorites to miss the next rally. -Peter Lynch "Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done - except by liars." - Bernard Baruch Video: https://t.co/4IUxQ6KARn https://t.co/1GIhMeG4LO "Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done - except by liars." - Bernard Baruch Video: https://t.co/4IUxQ6KARn https://t.co/1GIhMeG4LO" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1755018550555676696) 2024-02-07T00:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@zerohedge NYCB (Flagstar Bank) has been reducing its uninsured deposits for the last two quarters of [----]. Estimated % of deposits that were uninsured: Q2 2023: 45% (per FDIC) Q3 2023: 40% (per FDIC) Q4 2023: 33% (per Moody's)" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1755032128704684533) 2024-02-07T00:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@NickTimiraos Interesting that there are no longer forecasts for the first rate cut in July. Out of the [--] sell-side banks & Fed watchers [--] are forecasting the first rate cut in May and [--] in June. A month ago [--] forecasted the first rate cut in March [--] in May [--] in June and [--] in July" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1755686548283023576) 2024-02-08T20:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Odds remain low for a March Fed rate cut. Out of the [--] sell-side banks & Fed watchers [--] are forecasting the first rate cut in May and [--] in June. A month ago [--] forecasted the first rate cut in March [--] in May [--] in June and [--] in July. There has been a notable narrowing in views among sell-side banks and other Fed watchers around when the first rate cut occurs. All now see the first cut in either May or June and are nearly evenly divided on that question. There's a wide range on the question of how many cuts. https://t.co/AtlFIKHT8F There has been a notable narrowing in views among sell-side" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1755689426716336257) 2024-02-08T20:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@The_Bank_Slate One thing I noticed about this bank failure is that the cost to the DIF was quite high in proportion to the bank's size. The embezzlement may explain it" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1755696580059893910) 2024-02-08T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3 regional banks that have high exposure to commercial real estate: - New York Community Bancorp - Valley National Bancorp - City National Bank of Florida All [--] have online divisions with online savings accounts paying over 5% APY. The office vacancy rate in the US has moved up to 19.6% the highest level in history. Video: https://t.co/d3bwfxd1sZ https://t.co/J3FQM4oWmF The office vacancy rate in the US has moved up to 19.6% the highest level in history. Video: https://t.co/d3bwfxd1sZ https://t.co/J3FQM4oWmF" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1756472708143935498) 2024-02-11T00:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Cleveland Fed's Nowcast CPI inflation forecasts: Jan [----] Core CPI forecasts: 0.32% m/m 3.81% y/y Jan CPI scheduled to be released at 8:30am Tuesday Our #CPI indicator updates tomorrow. Our #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily) predicts year-over-year CPI #inflation of 2.94% in January. Check it out: https://t.co/3MBqxpohBj https://t.co/gqTko8Y5DR Our #CPI indicator updates tomorrow. Our #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily) predicts year-over-year CPI #inflation of 2.94% in January. Check it out: https://t.co/3MBqxpohBj https://t.co/gqTko8Y5DR" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1757080923260985382) 2024-02-12T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DividendGrowth @ValueStockGeek With the S&P [---] index having a 10yr annual return of 12.6% many may be overconfident. Total annual return examples of index ETFs from 6/6/2001 to 8/31/2010: $SPY (S&P 500) -0.23% $MDY (S&P Midcap 400) 4.20% $VTI (Total US Stock Market) 0.86% Source:" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1757094629344756011) 2024-02-12T17:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Large Treasury yield gains today: 2yr: 4.46% 4.64% 10yr: 4.17% 4.31% And the odds of a March Fed rate had a big drop: 16.0% 8.5% Wondering how a small miss on the US #inflation numbers can result in such a spike in yields on US government #bonds (2- and 10-year below) A lot of it has to do with the extent to which #markets had embraced subject to limited critical thinking the narrative of a very soft https://t.co/TLxLxPVUPD Wondering how a small miss on the US #inflation numbers can result in such a spike in yields on US government #bonds (2- and 10-year below) A lot of it has to do with the" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1757547811715874928) 2024-02-13T23:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Upside surprises on both PPI and CPI inflation reports: "Combined with this week's hot CPI report the market is now pricing less than 30% odds of a rate cut in may." PPI surprised to the upside bigly which will also lift estimates for the Jan PCE inflation report that will come out at the end of the month. Combined with this week's hot CPI report the market is now pricing less than 30% odds of a rate cut in may. Core PPI surprised even https://t.co/yQff4Btlxn PPI surprised to the upside bigly which will also lift estimates for the Jan PCE inflation report that will come out at the end of the" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1758521613623107912) 2024-02-16T15:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The late-John Bogle had a simple formula for expected returns in the stock market that looks like this: Expected Stock Market Returns = Dividend Yield + Earnings Growth +/- the Change in P/E Ratio Heres the latest data through the end of 2023: What's driving stock market returns Fundamentals (mostly) https://t.co/sToedVyPXF https://t.co/1B3FxFKNyh What's driving stock market returns Fundamentals (mostly) https://t.co/sToedVyPXF https://t.co/1B3FxFKNyh" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1759624950191677498) 2024-02-19T17:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Lessons From a Three-Decade-Long Stock Market Disaster @jmackin2 for @WSJ "Japans Nikkei [---] index is within a hairs breadth of passing its [----] high and ending a 34-year dry spell for the countrys shareholders."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1760315536032833617) 2024-02-21T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "January FOMC meeting minutes were just released. Odds of a March Fed rate cut are now 6.5% down from 8% yesterday and down from 47% a month ago (per CME FedWatch Tool) Jan FOMC meeting minutes were just released and no big surprises: rate cuts are not imminent. The Fed remains cautious worried about a potential acceleration of inflation worried about cutting too soon and upside risk from easier financial conditions. *FED: OFFICIALS JUDGED Jan FOMC meeting minutes were just released and no big surprises: rate cuts are not imminent. The Fed remains cautious worried about a potential" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1760386253835444631) 2024-02-21T19:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DividendGrowth Congrats on the 200k milestone and for 16+ years of DGI writing One of my faves in the archives: Investing Lessons Learned From [--] Years of Writing" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1760785530906697784) 2024-02-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@AmerBanker @BMO BMO's acquisition of Bank of the West in Feb [----] was probably the primary driver of this 50% deposit growth for the year" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1761115589647466653) 2024-02-23T19:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "When High-Yield Savings Accounts Come With an Asterisk @RachelEnsignWSJ for @WSJ Glad to help with this piece on the "create-a-new-account" tactic that online banks have done to reduce their deposit costs at the expense of their existing customers" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1761758593609527587) 2024-02-25T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ah_shapiro "liquid assets . have been diminishing and are approaching levels significantly lower than the projected prepandemic path. As these excess liquid funds run out consumers may decide to pull back on spending." May explain the recession delay after the inverted yield curve" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1762199372291281176) 2024-02-26T19:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Example of the importance of diversification in stock investing Valuations today: Apple: $2.8 trillion BlackBerry: $1.5 billion Valuations [--] years ago: Apple: $79 billion BlackBerry: $28 billion https://t.co/AarvqG1nE2 Valuations today: Apple: $2.8 trillion BlackBerry: $1.5 billion Valuations [--] years ago: Apple: $79 billion BlackBerry: $28 billion https://t.co/AarvqG1nE2" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1763974467712176394) 2024-03-02T17:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Key economic events for this week via @KobeissiLetter One note: On Friday March 8th the February jobs report comes out. Consensus is for 190k jobs added and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%. Key Events This Week: [--]. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday [--]. Fed Chair Powell Testifies - Wednesday [--]. JOLTs Jobs data - Wednesday [--]. Fed Chair Powell Testifies - Thursday [--]. February Jobs Report - Friday [--]. Total of [--] Fed speaker events this week This week is all Key Events This Week: [--]. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday [--]. Fed Chair Powell Testifies - Wednesday [--]. JOLTs" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1764435464499445981) 2024-03-03T23:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "On todays world of finance and investing from the founder and CEO of @M1Finance I do think theres too much focus on short-termism and immediate gratification. You get the long-term outcomes by doing the right things consistently over an incredibly long period of time Founder and CEO of @M1Finance @Barnes_M1 shares how his passion for investing led to the creation of this powerful personal finance app https://t.co/VKLeXdAdGL @Entreprenuer https://t.co/cLan288dPS Founder and CEO of @M1Finance @Barnes_M1 shares how his passion for investing led to the creation of this powerful personal finance" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1764678157116887494) 2024-03-04T15:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@mi_jim @M1Finance @Barnes_M1 @ENTREPRENUER I was trying to understand how M1 works with its partner banks and I came across this [----] blog post by Barnes: "SoI bought a bank" Wonder if this is the first fintech CEO who purchased a bank Note M1 didn't buy the bank Brian Barnes did" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1764718271746527646) 2024-03-04T18:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements ""the regional lender might have to pay more to retain deposits according to analysts who track the company." Keep an eye on NYCB's online bank My Banking Direct. Its savings account rate (5.35% APY) continues to be near the rate leaders. This has held since November. NEW: W/ NYCB shares in freefall analysts have pointed to contractual obligations that bank needs an investment-grade rating to keep certain pockets of deposits. It lost that Friday after Moody's slashed ratings again 👇 https://t.co/PnLLo7yDce NEW: W/ NYCB shares in freefall analysts have pointed to contractual obligations that" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1764762178492436683) 2024-03-04T21:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@JonErlichman About Whitney Wolfe Herd (founder of Bumble): "The Bumble IPO makes Wolfe Herd [--] the youngest woman to take a company public (and according to Bloomberg with a $1.5 billion payday a rare self-made female billionaire)."" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1766220645577195551) 2024-03-08T21:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "CPI forecasts for Tuesday (March 12) at 8:30 AM EDT All eyes are on the February CPI this week Wall Street forecasters expect the core CPI index rose 0.3% lowering the 12-month rate to 3.7% from 3.9% in January They see the headline index up 0.4% in February due to higher energy prices leaving the 12-month rate at 3.1% https://t.co/wA2ebosleO All eyes are on the February CPI this week Wall Street forecasters expect the core CPI index rose 0.3% lowering the 12-month rate to 3.7% from 3.9% in January They see the headline index up 0.4% in February due to higher energy prices leaving the" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1767353641625628902) 2024-03-12T00:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Feb Core PCE index won't be out until Mar 29th but it can be estimated based on CPI and PPI. The median forecast for Feb Core PCE is now 0.29% m/m. If Feb Core PCE does come in around 0.3% m/m it could convince the Fed to delay the first rate cut to after June. The Feb core PCE index probably rose 0.3% according to the forecasters who translate the CPI and PPI into the PCE *PPI revisions may lift January's reported 0.42% by a few bps *That'd put the 12-month rate at 2.8% and bump the 6-month annualized rate to 2.9% or 3% (from 2.5%) https://t.co/xvbqGjuM34 The Feb core PCE index probably rose" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1768680827951730881) 2024-03-15T16:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Japan's policy rate has been set at -0.10% since January [----]. Its negative rate policy may soon end. Take Five: Is Bank of Japan ready to exit negative rates https://t.co/Akk54SqLuL @reuters https://t.co/FUODOYsnSH Take Five: Is Bank of Japan ready to exit negative rates https://t.co/Akk54SqLuL @reuters https://t.co/FUODOYsnSH" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1768687183828013419) 2024-03-15T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Lindsey_McBride VMFXX pays out interest monthly. If you add it back into the fund you can determine the compound yield (comparable to a bank's APY) by using a rate-to-APY converter with a compounding period of [--]. Vanguard lists VMFXX's compound yield as 5.40% with a 7-day SEC yield of 5.27%" [X Link](https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1769158247485952258) 2024-03-17T00:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@KenTumin Ken Tumin
Ken Tumin posts on X about fed rate, money, fed, rates the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +71%
- [--] Month [------] +120%
- [--] Months [-------] +19%
- [--] Year [-------] +22%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -25%
- [--] Months [---] +30%
- [--] Year [---] +200%
Followers: [-------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.25%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.80%
- [--] Months [-----] +12%
- [--] Year [-----] +29%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks countries technology brands cryptocurrencies financial services #2846 exchanges automotive brands events social networks
Social topic influence fed rate, money, fed, rates, inflation, fdic, savings, credit union #73, bank, fintech
Top assets mentioned Goldman Sachs (GS) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Bank of America (BAC) Synapse (SYN) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Morgan Stanley (MS) Citigroup Inc (C) Bitcoin (BTC) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Walrus (WAL) PacWest Bancorp (PACW) New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYCB)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Nice Graphic that shows how the odds of a Fed rate hike in [----] have gone to zero while the odds of rate cuts have been rising. 😟 Implied odds of Fed moves https://t.co/odv64Vp06Z Implied odds of Fed moves https://t.co/odv64Vp06Z"
X Link 2019-03-28T21:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Great summary of the #JobsReport - The strong jobs report should reduce the odds of a Fed rate cut in [----] Strong US #JobsReport in April +263k #jobs added w/ upward revisions +16k #unemployment rate fell to fresh 50-yr low 3.6% but largely due to lower labor force participation 62.8% wages modest +0.2% m/m but wage growth firmly anchored at 3.2% y/y Will anchor #Fed patience https://t.co/hephSh7WV8 Strong US #JobsReport in April +263k #jobs added w/ upward revisions +16k #unemployment rate fell to fresh 50-yr low 3.6% but largely due to lower labor force participation 62.8% wages modest"
X Link 2019-05-03T13:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"My latest Fed review rate forecasts. Treasury yields have plummeted (5-year yield is now under 2%) and the odds of Fed rate cuts in [----] have shot up. Expect CD rates to fall. #cdrates https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/fed-deposit-interest-rate-predictions/ https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/fed-deposit-interest-rate-predictions/"
X Link 2019-06-04T22:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"My liquid bank account survey: APYs of the rate leaders: Savings/MMAs (no limits/reqs): 1.75% No-Penalty CDs: 1.55% Noteworthy recent rate cuts: Goldman Sachs High Yield Savings (1.70% 1.55%) American Express High Yield Savings (1.60% 1.50%) https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/bank-accounts-survey/ https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/bank-accounts-survey/"
X Link 2020-04-29T01:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@NavySassano @vnq #3 $VTWAX/$VT is probably the most diversified out of those [--] options"
X Link 2021-08-22T20:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The first S&P [---] index fund $VFINX will be turning [--] years old later this month. To see the value of regular investing into an S&P [---] index fund I used the ETF Return Calculator @DQYDJHQ [--] years of investing $1k per month in $SPY would have grown to almost $1.3 million"
X Link 2021-08-24T14:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"My Fed meeting review its impact on deposit rates and strategies for your cash savings If there is a Fed rate hike near the end of [----] and if the Fed continues rate hikes in [----] we may see some online savings account rate hikes in late [----]. https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/federal-funds-rate-hike/ https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/federal-funds-rate-hike/"
X Link 2021-09-22T22:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The new rate leader for online banks is @synchrony At online banks most of the rate hike focus has been on CDs. Synchrony's latest featured CD is a 16-mo CD Special (1.50% APY) Online direct CDs are still lagging Treasury bills/notes and brokered CDs. https://www.depositaccounts.com/banks/synchrony-bank/offers/ https://www.depositaccounts.com/banks/synchrony-bank/offers/"
X Link 2022-04-19T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Another major online savings account reaches 2% @Ally Bank Online Savings Account APY: 1.85% 2.00% Compared to 2018-19 Ally is still lagging: One month after Dec [----] Fed rate hike (same fed funds rate as today) Ally increased its OSA yield from 2.00% to 2.20%"
X Link 2022-09-02T11:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Ally Tumbles After Auto-Lending Giant Reports Slowing Loans @deyesha for @business "Ally Financial Inc.s disappointing third-quarter results showed fewer people than expected took out new loans to buy vehicles." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/autos-gloom-deepens-after-lender-ally-reports-slowing-loans#xj4y7vzkg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/autos-gloom-deepens-after-lender-ally-reports-slowing-loans#xj4y7vzkg"
X Link 2022-10-19T18:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fed rate hike predictions. If this occurs it'll be close to the 2006/2007 peak when online savings account rates peaked in the 5% to 5.50% range. BofA: "We now anticipate 50bp rate hikes in December and February followed by a 25bp rate hike in March for a terminal rate of 5.0-5.25%." BofA: "We now anticipate 50bp rate hikes in December and February followed by a 25bp rate hike in March for a terminal rate of 5.0-5.25%.""
X Link 2022-11-06T15:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@theDividendKid $ABT Abbott Laboratories - [--] years of dividend growth and a long history of strong total return"
X Link 2023-01-16T20:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TheETFObserver Besides $VTI/$VTSAX what's the other fund that tracks the CRSP US Total Market Index I'm surprised there aren't more funds that track this"
X Link 2023-01-25T18:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Top US Banks to Reveal $521 Billion Deposit Drop Most in Decade @KatLeighDoherty & @jennysurane for @business "Deposits at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. are expected to have tumbled $521 billion from a year earlier" Top US Banks to Reveal $521 Billion Deposit Drop Most in Decade https://t.co/5niiqjNsjL @business https://t.co/haX8xHPpN3 Top US Banks to Reveal $521 Billion Deposit Drop Most in Decade https://t.co/5niiqjNsjL @business https://t.co/haX8xHPpN3"
X Link 2023-04-13T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Several big banks are being aggressive today with their brokered CD rates Sample of 1-year non-callable new-issue brokered CD rates: 5.25% M&T Bank 5.20% Zions 5.15% Bank of America US Bank Truist & BMO Bank of America's 1-year CD at their branches pays only 0.03%"
X Link 2023-05-24T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@business "Interest expense soared more than sevenfold" This will likely continue based on PacWest Bank's deposit offerings like a 5.15% APY savings account & a 5.50% APY 13mo CD Special. Both are market-leading rates"
X Link 2023-05-29T01:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Fund performance comes and goes. Costs go on forever. John Bogle"
X Link 2023-06-12T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"After the CPI report odds of a Fed rate hike have fallen: Odds of a hike on Wed = 5.8% (was 20.9% on 6/12) Odds of higher rates in July = 65.3% (was 73.9%) per Fed Funds futures pricing data via CME FedWatch Tool"
X Link 2023-06-13T14:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@NickTimiraos @aduehren Several regional banks have been attracting deposits with very high savings account rates via the fintech Raisin. Here's a sample of the APYs and the banks: 5.10% @ $WAL ($71B) 5.12% @ $PACW ($44B) 5.10% @ $OCFC ($13B) 5.15% @ $CLBK ($10B) Keep an eye on their Q2 earnings"
X Link 2023-06-23T18:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bank of America nurses $100bn paper loss after big bet in bond market @FT But BofA has $370bn in cash and is not facing any SVB-like liquidity crunch. In fact BofA and other big banks have received inflows of deposits"
X Link 2023-06-30T14:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Key Events This Week via @KobeissiLetter One event to note: June CPI release on Wednesday: CPI Consensus numbers: MoM: headline: +0.2% core: +0.3% YoY: headline: +3.0% core: +5.0%"
X Link 2023-07-09T15:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Several regional banks have been attracting deposits with high online savings account rates via the fintech Raisin. Here's a sample of the APYs the banks & asset sizes. 5.16% @ $PACW ($44B) 5.15% @ $WAL ($71B) 5.15% @ $OCFC ($13B) Others have used their own online divisions"
X Link 2023-07-14T16:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Regional Banks Battle for Deposits With Tougher US Rules Looming @YahooFinance Example: Regional banks' online/mobile savings account yields (APY regional bank assets) 5.16% @ $PACW $44B 5.15% @ $WAL $71B 5.15% @ $OCFC $13B 5.00% @ $NYCB $124B 5.00% @ $VLY $64B Regional Banks Battle for Deposits With Tougher US Rules Looming https://t.co/6qED7tzJIt @yahoofinance https://t.co/uf9KX60Klq Regional Banks Battle for Deposits With Tougher US Rules Looming https://t.co/6qED7tzJIt @yahoofinance https://t.co/uf9KX60Klq"
X Link 2023-07-17T17:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For those looking into brokered CDs beware of callable CDs. These allow the issuing bank to close the CD early. If rates fall the odds of the bank calling the CD rises. In July I've seen callable long-term CD rates as much as [---] bps above the non-callable ones"
X Link 2023-07-31T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"5 large regional banks are attracting deposits with high yield savings accounts via online/mobile divisions. Here's a sample of the APYs the banks & asset sizes: 5.05% @ $FCNC ($215B) 5.00% @ $KEY ($195B) 5.00% @ $NYCB ($124B) 5.00% @ $FHN ($80B) 5.00% @ $VLY ($64B)"
X Link 2023-08-01T18:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Hugh_Son Brokered deposits aren't the only hot money these days. Several regional banks now have online/mobile divisions offering 5% savings accounts eg $FCNC $KEY $NYCB $FHN & $VLY. Some are also using the new fintech Raisin to offer 5.20%+ savings accounts eg $PACW $WAL & $OCFC"
X Link 2023-08-11T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@zerohedge inflation forecasts keep rising "Staff Economic Outlook" of the FOMC minutes: "by [----] total PCE price inflation was expected to be [---] percent and core inflation was expected to be [---] percent." Both are up from June SEP which had 2.1% for total PCE and 2.2% for core PCE"
X Link 2023-08-16T18:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great chart of Treasury yields over the last [--] years by @charliebilello You have to go back to [----] to find T-bill yields this high but long-dated yields were much higher back then. Today's large yield curve inversion is concerning"
X Link 2023-08-18T14:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CD Specials from the [--] largest U.S. banks: Today's APYs: @Chase 6mo CD up to 5.00% @BankofAmerica 7mo CD up to 4.75% @Citi 9mo CD up to 4.90% @WellsFargo 11mo CD up to 5.16% Beware these will auto-renew into standard CDs which will likely have rates way below 1%"
X Link 2023-08-18T16:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Why the Era of Historically Low Interest Rates Could Be Over If neutral has gone up that could call for higher short-term interest rates or delay interest-rate cuts as inflation falls. It could also keep long-term bond yields higher for longer"
X Link 2023-08-21T00:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Great and Awful Thing About These Interest Rates by @michaelbatnick "In the blink of an eye the Fed went from punishing savers to punishing borrowers.""
X Link 2023-08-24T17:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Key data & events for week ahead [--] key ones for the Fed: Thursday: July PCE inflation Friday: Aug jobs report"
X Link 2023-08-28T01:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Odds of another Fed rate hike this year fell after today's JOLTS report: Odds of one or more rate hikes by November are now 50.2% down from 62.3% yesterday (per CME FedWatch Tool) Todays JOLTS report was near perfect. The job market is resilient but cooling off. The hiring and quit rates have normalized suggesting wage growth soon will. There are plenty of job openings but they are quickly declining. Compelling reasons for the Fed to end its rate hikes. Todays JOLTS report was near perfect. The job market is resilient but cooling off. The hiring and quit rates have normalized suggesting wage"
X Link 2023-08-29T16:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Odds of another Fed rate hike fall slightly after today's jobs report. Odds of at least one rate hike by November = 43% per CME FedWatch Tool Taken at face value the US August #jobs report increases the probability that the highly data-dependent Fed will not hike again in this cycle as Job gains (including revisions) moderated (187000 and -110000); The unemployment rate went up to 3.8%; Labor force Taken at face value the US August #jobs report increases the probability that the highly data-dependent Fed will not hike again in this cycle as Job gains (including revisions) moderated (187000"
X Link 2023-09-01T16:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"From today's FDIC Chairman remarks on Q2 Quarterly Banking Profile: "the second quarters deposit story appears to have been more about pricing pressures from depositors seeking higher yields often at nonbank financial institutions particularly money market mutual funds." This morning we released the latest quarterly report card on the state of our nations banks. Read more about the second quarter [----] performance results for FDIC-insured institutions âž¡ https://t.co/HYXOHiPscM. https://t.co/bkvdEXiEFO This morning we released the latest quarterly report card on the state of our nations banks."
X Link 2023-09-07T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@psb_dc @FinTech_Futures @LedaGlyptis @stephfoster2020 @jasonhenrichs @Clagett @stessacohen @RAlexJimenez @efipm @dharmeshmistry @JimMarous Two important traits shared by many of the 50+ generation are: 1) they generally have more savings and 2) they are often more conservative with their savings. By conservative they're not only concerned with volatility/risk but also the trustworthiness of the institution"
X Link 2023-09-11T16:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Rate hike @synchrony moves them ahead of most major online banks but still far behind rate leaders & MMFs. High Yield Savings Account: 4.50% 4.75% APY Interesting to note that PayPal Savings a service of Synchrony only pays 4.30% APY"
X Link 2023-09-13T10:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"CD Specials from the [--] largest banks: Today's APYs: @Chase 6mo CD up to 5.00% @BankofAmerica [--] & 13mo CD up to 5.00% (New) @Citi 9mo CD up to 4.90% @WellsFargo 11mo CD up to 5.26% Beware these will auto-renew into low-rate standard CDs. For example BofA 7mo stnd CD = 0.03%"
X Link 2023-09-13T10:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Core CPI (that was "a touch firmer than expected") might have slightly raised the odds for a November Fed rate hike. Odds of a higher fed funds rate in Nov. per CME FedWatch Tool: 45.2% odds now vs 44.2% odds yesterday Core CPI inflation was a touch firmer than expected with a 0.28% increase in August That dropped the 12-month core inflation rate to 4.3% in Aug down from 4.7% in July Six-month annualized core CPI rate: 3.7% Three-month annualized core CPI rate: 2.4% https://t.co/9tTEPjxxG9 https://t.co/DrNO1udwui Core CPI inflation was a touch firmer than expected with a 0.28% increase in"
X Link 2023-09-13T12:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My Fed meeting preview and deposit rate expectations Since the July Fed rate hike online banks haven't increased deposit rates much even as competition from new digital banks Treasurys and money market funds has grown"
X Link 2023-09-13T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DividendGrowth "Each $1 invested at 10%/yr turns to $117 in [--] years" If you can add another [--] years for a total of [--] years each $1 invested turns into $304"
X Link 2023-09-13T19:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Small rate hike at Marcus by Goldman Sachs today: @Marcus High-Yield Savings account: 4.30% 4.40% APY Interesting to note that Apple Savings (run by Goldman Sachs Bank) still only pays 4.15% APY. Way behind @Synchrony (4.75% APY) and rate leader (5.33% APY)"
X Link 2023-09-15T14:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Bank owned by private equity investors bets big on fund finance @reosti1967 for @AmerBanker "EverBank officially completed the brand makeover from TIAA. It's the second time around for EverBank which served as the company name from [----] until 2018.""
X Link 2023-09-15T18:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Treasury yields stats since 1990: Todays yields: Highest 10-yr yield since [----] Highest 3-mo yield since [----] Most inverted yield curve"
X Link 2023-09-17T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"If the Fed is more worried about a hard landing in [----] we may see it in this week's SEP dot plot that the FOMC releases on Wednesday. In June [--] of [--] Fed officials penciled in a fed rate of at least 5.50%-5.75% for [----]. That number may fall this week"
X Link 2023-09-18T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Rate Hike Milestone - Largest bank to date offers 5%+ savings account. BMO Alto Online Savings Account: 4.85% 5.10% APY No mins & no fees. BMO Alto is the online division of BMO Bank NA ($263B in assets)"
X Link 2023-09-18T17:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"5 large regional banks are attracting deposits with high yield savings accounts via digital bank divisions: $BMO ($263B) BMO Alto @ 5.10% $FCNC ($209B) CIT Bank @ 5.05% $KEY ($193B) Laurel Road @ 5.00% $NYCB ($119B) My Banking Direct @ 5.00% $VLY ($62B) Vallydirect @ 5.25%"
X Link 2023-09-19T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Review of FOMC meeting & impact on deposit rates Deposit rates are lower now than in [----]. Examples: In [----] Fed rate = 5.25% GMAC Bank (now Ally) APYs: MMA: 5.30% 5yr CD: 5.45% In [----] Fed rate = 5.25%-5.50% Ally Bank APYs: MMA: 4.40% 5yr CD: 4.10% https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/federal-funds-rate-hike/ https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/federal-funds-rate-hike/"
X Link 2023-09-21T13:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"To match the after-tax return of a 1-year T-Bill a 1-year CD would need to have a much higher yield than 5.47% in states with income taxes. Examples using Fidelity's calculator CA: 6.01% GA: 5.99% IL: 5.93% MA: 5.93% NJ: 5.97% NY: 5.97% VA: 5.99%"
X Link 2023-09-21T14:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BankrateGreg @jmackin2 @WSJ "Almost every interest-rate cycle ends with rapid rate cuts" Wonder how the last cycle would have ended without the pandemic"
X Link 2023-09-22T14:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When Rates Drop They Usually Plunge. The Fed Thinks Different @jmackin2 for @WSJ "The Fed is hoping for something it has never managed before: not merely the softest of soft landings for the economy but the slowest rate-cutting cycle in its history" https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/interest-rates-drop-federal-reserve-e71f1892st=f8xzj673vn1ep4b https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/interest-rates-drop-federal-reserve-e71f1892st=f8xzj673vn1ep4b"
X Link 2023-09-22T14:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great chart of the history of Treasury yields by @charliebilello Sample of CD yields to match the after-tax earnings of today's Treasurys in a state w/state-income tax. 3mo: 6.13% 6mo: 6.07% 1yr: 6.00% 2yr: 5.62% 5yr: 5.06% chose CA + $100k/yr income"
X Link 2023-09-22T14:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Only [--] of the top [--] tech companies in [----] outperformed the S&P [---] over the last [--] years Yikes that righthand column. 🤔 From a good compendium of charts assembled by Danny Noonan @MorningstarInc https://t.co/jnBVTIJbU3 https://t.co/chXb1if421 Yikes that righthand column. 🤔 From a good compendium of charts assembled by Danny Noonan @MorningstarInc https://t.co/jnBVTIJbU3 https://t.co/chXb1if421"
X Link 2023-09-24T12:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Banks Fearing a Liquidity Crunch Pay More to Cling to Cash l Bloomberg via @YahooFinance Banks are paying up to protect their cash holdings from sinking further and to safeguard against future runs on deposits"
X Link 2023-09-25T00:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why Do Bond Yields Keep Rising via @MorningstarInc "bond yields were supposed to be heading lower. Instead the opposite is happening. Yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds . have risen to their highest level since October 2007.""
X Link 2023-09-25T14:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Key data releases for the week ahead by @Econ_Parker Aug PCE comes out Friday: "Aug PCE inflation is expected to accelerate to 0.5% m/m from 0.2% in July even as core inflation is likely to remain relatively unchanged at 0.2% consistent with the earlier Aug CPI release.""
X Link 2023-09-25T15:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Want This 6% CD You Have to Have $5 Million @RachelEnsignWSJ for @WSJ "Chase is offering customers of its private bank division a 6% rate on a six-month certificate of deposit if they put $5 million or more into the product.""
X Link 2023-09-28T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For retail bank customers 5% is now available from the big banks: @Chase 6mo CD up to 5.00% APY @BankofAmerica [--] & 13mo CD up to 5.00% APY @WellsFargo 11mo CD up to 5.26% APY But these CD Specials auto renew into low-rate standard CDs. Online banks & MMFs are better options"
X Link 2023-09-28T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Odds of another Fed rate hike are falling after todays PCE inflation data release. Odds of another hike at any of the next [--] Fed meetings are down to 33% (per CME FedWatch Tool)"
X Link 2023-09-29T14:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
".@CFPB reports on its efforts to ensure companies delete disputed unverified information from consumer credit reports. To dispute an error on your credit report check out this CFPB resource:"
X Link 2023-09-29T17:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#OnThisDay in [----] marks the end of Wachovia Bank (the 4th largest bank). FDIC first announced Citigroup's acquisition of Wachovia. Then on Oct 3rd the deal was replaced by Wells Fargo's acquisition of Wachovia without FDIC help. Citigroup filed suit"
X Link 2023-09-29T18:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"One of the largest MMFs the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund ($VMFXX) now has a compound yield of 5.42% (7 day SEC yield of 5.29%)"
X Link 2023-09-29T21:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Based on how Core PCE inflation is progressing it seems unlikely that the Fed will hike again this year"
X Link 2023-09-30T11:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Rising Rates Likely Hit Bank Balance Sheets in Quarter @JonathanWeil for @WSJ "That has led to earnings pressure for many banks now paying higher rates on deposits and other funding sources while the returns on their older fixed-rate assets stay low.""
X Link 2023-10-02T13:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"15 years ago on Oct [--] [----] basic FDIC insurance coverage was increased from $100k to $250k as part of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. The increase was temporary but it was made permanent on July [--] [----] when the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform became law"
X Link 2023-10-03T10:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"More credit unions are offering 6%+ CD Specials. Online banks have currently peaked at 5.77% APY. Latest CD Special is from a MA credit union (6.00% APY [--] mo). Like many banks & CUs its standard CD rates remain very low"
X Link 2023-10-03T11:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ten-Year Treasury Yield Closes Above 4.8% @WSJ "Treasury yields have been surging for weeks but got an extra boost Tuesday after new data showed that job openings had unexpectedly jumped in August.""
X Link 2023-10-03T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@WallStGunslingr @BrianFeroldi Unfortunately schools often teach stock picking instead of index fund investing. "Every year more than a million high-school students across the U.S. learn about investing through stock-picking games.""
X Link 2023-10-05T15:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Odds of a November Fed rate hike up after the jobs report. Market pricing in odds of a hike at 31.4% up from 20.1% yesterday (per CME FedWatch Tool)"
X Link 2023-10-06T12:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"100s of small banks and CUs have been offering high-yield reward checking accounts for 10+ years. Two main caveats are debit card requirements and a balance cap. Heres a review of one that has been around for 13+ years and pays 6.17% APY on up to $25k"
X Link 2023-10-09T11:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Review of Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's speech and its implications on future fed funds rate: "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate. ""
X Link 2023-10-09T14:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"One of the key events this week is the release of Sep CPI on Thurs. With Sep CPI-U the November I Bond inflation rate can be calculated. Forecasts for the Sep CPI (YoY/MoM) CPI: 3.6% & 0.3% Core CPI: 4.1% & 0.3% Hotter than expected CPI could move the Fed to hike in Nov"
X Link 2023-10-09T15:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"More credit unions are offering 6%+ CD Specials. Online banks have currently peaked at 5.77% APY. Latest CD Special is from a NH credit union (6.00% APY [--] mo). Residents of NH & parts of MA VT & ME are eligible. #CreditUnions"
X Link 2023-10-10T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"FOMC minutes: "A majority of participants judged that one more increase in the target federal funds rate at a future meeting would likely be appropriate." Odds of a Fed rate hike (via CME FedWatch Tool) Nov: 8.5% (down from 13.2% yesterday) Dec: 27.9% (up from 27.1% yesterday)"
X Link 2023-10-11T19:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Average online 1-year CD yield as of Oct 1st: 5.18% up from 5.10% on Sep 1st. Average is based on 1-year CDs from [--] well-established online banks"
X Link 2023-10-12T01:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Average online 5-year CD yield as of Oct 1st: 3.95% no change from Sep 1st. Average is based on 5-year CDs from [--] well-established online banks. Chart compares the online 5-year CD yield average to the fed funds rate & to the 5-year T-note yield:"
X Link 2023-10-12T01:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
".@KobeissiLetter makes a good point regarding today's CPI report. "3.7% inflation is building on 8.2% in September [----] and 5.4% in September 2021." Cumulative inflation from [----] to [----] = 18.9% greater than Cumulative inf from [----] to [----] = 18.7%"
X Link 2023-10-12T18:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My review of todays CPI report and its impact on I Bond decisions Nov I Bond inflation rate should be 3.94%. I Bond purchased late Oct and redeemed early Jan [----] would yield just under 4%. Top CDs are better options (todays best deal: 6% APY 12-17mo)"
X Link 2023-10-12T19:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Barchart Important to note this excerpt regarding what Jamie Dimon sees as contributing to today's dangerous times: "Beyond the military conflicts in Ukraine and Israel Dimon cited the burgeoning national debt and the largest peacetime fiscal deficits ever.""
X Link 2023-10-13T15:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@cadeinvests Wish I had invested in $SPY (the OG of ETFs) [--] years ago. Its annual total returns over the last [--] years has been 9.67%"
X Link 2023-10-13T16:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"More credit unions are offering 6%+ CD Specials. Online banks have currently peaked at 5.77% APY. Latest CD special (6.09% APY 6mo) is from a Virginia credit union. Residents of DC KY MD NC TN VA & WV are eligible. #CreditUnions"
X Link 2023-10-13T16:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Big Banks Say Trouble Is Coming But Their Earnings Are Still Strong @WSJ "The banks have been able to raise the rates they charge on loans faster than they increase their payouts on deposits. But deposit costs are starting to catch up.""
X Link 2023-10-13T19:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Instead of raising savings account rates or standard CD rates they've been offering short-term CD Specials: CD Specials (APYs) $JPM 6mo CD up to 5.00% $C 11mo CD up to 5.05% $WFC 11mo CD up to 5.26% Savings Accounts (APYs) $JPM 0.01% $C 0.12% (branch) $WFC 0.15%"
X Link 2023-10-13T20:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Worst Bond Bear Market in History by @awealthofcs Sure rates and inflation could keep going up from here. But interest rates are now much higher to act as a margin of safety. That didnt exist at the outset of this bear market"
X Link 2023-10-15T00:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Useful overview of stock investing and total returns"
X Link 2023-10-16T00:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Notable bank earnings this week: Tuesday: $BAC $GS Wednesday: $MS $USB $MTB $ALLY $FHN $DFS $ZION Thursday: $KEY $TFC $WAL Friday: $AXP $CMA $HBAN $RF First FULL week of earnings kick off this week I will be busy pushing out Earnings Updates to premium subscribers to the Dividend Investors Edge Notable Earnings this week: $SCHW $BAC $LMT $GS $JNJ $PLD $ASML $PG $ABT $TSLA $NFLX $CCI $T $UNP $AXP What's on your BUY list https://t.co/VX8o8bUG7b First FULL week of earnings kick off this week I will be busy pushing out Earnings Updates to premium subscribers to the Dividend Investors Edge Notable"
X Link 2023-10-16T15:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Key economic events this week via @KobeissiLetter Regarding the Fed speakers two important ones to watch for signs for or against another rate hike: Wednesday speech by Fed Governor Waller Thursday speech by Fed Chair Powell"
X Link 2023-10-16T15:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why high rates may be here to stay by @zerohedge The inflation problem has been stubborn and if the rising interest payments are paid with more borrowing as opposed to fiscal restraint inflation will only worsen triggering more interest hikes and more interest payments"
X Link 2023-10-16T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter Perhaps it's time to consider an S&P [---] Equal Weight ETF (smart beta). The oldest one $RSP has slightly outperformed $SPY over the last [--] years. 20-year annual total returns: $SPY = 9.41% $RSP = 9.46% % of total assets of top [--] holdings: $SPY = 30.51% $RSP = 2.20%"
X Link 2023-10-16T18:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bank of America's Q3 earnings report shows how much they profited from their low deposit rates. "Blended cash and securities yield continued to improve in 3Q23 and is [---] bps above deposit rate paid.""
X Link 2023-10-17T14:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My review of today's top online savings account Popular Direct Select Savings. APY = 5.40% with no min balance One downside: Popular Direct is another online bank with a history of creating new savings accounts. Select Savings is third one this year"
X Link 2023-10-17T20:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Liquid account rates survey Top yields of liquid accounts (APY/cmp yield) 5.70% - No Penalty CDs 5.41% - MM Funds ($VMFXX) 5.40% - Online savings accounts (OSA) 4.43% = Avg OSA yield as of Oct 1st"
X Link 2023-10-19T02:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Jerome Powell Signals Fed Will Extend Interest-Rate Pause @NickTimiraos "Powells remarks closely tracked those of his colleagues in recent days who have suggested they are prepared to hold short-term interest rates steady at their next meeting""
X Link 2023-10-19T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Odds of a rate hike at the Oct 31/Nov [--] Fed meeting have fallen to only 0.5% down from 6.6% yesterday and down from 13.3% last week (via CME FedWatch Tool)"
X Link 2023-10-19T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ivy Bank High-Yield Savings: 5.30% APY on up to $1 million APY guaranteed through 6/30/24 Account review:"
X Link 2023-10-19T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crypto companies touting FDIC insurance Not so fast. @FTC "Despite its claims Voyager was never an FDIC insured bank. . So when Voyager eventually failed and filed for bankruptcy people with accounts were locked out and lost money.""
X Link 2023-10-20T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"More credit unions are offering 6%+ CD Specials. Online banks have currently peaked at 5.80% APY. Latest CD special (6.00% APY 7-mo) is from a FL credit union. [--] others credit unions are also offering 6%+ CDs. Only one is nationally available"
X Link 2023-10-20T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Best list Ive seen describing why day trading is not the path to wealth by @GrahamStephan 99.9% of people would have better returns gambling than day trading (but I'd suggest investing in an Index Fund)"
X Link 2023-10-21T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Odds of another Fed rate hike are slowly falling Most of the sell-side banks and other Fed tip-sheets continue to think the FOMC has made its last rate increase for the current cycle. A handful anticipate a rate hike in December or early next year. https://t.co/pFWRRgBsi4 Most of the sell-side banks and other Fed tip-sheets continue to think the FOMC has made its last rate increase for the current cycle. A handful anticipate a rate hike in December or early next year. https://t.co/pFWRRgBsi4"
X Link 2023-10-23T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@cvpayne You can find short-term CDs paying 6% APY at several credit unions. Online banks are paying up to 5.80% APY on short-term CDs. If you live in states with state income tax T-bills and T-notes (which are exempt from state income tax) are better deals now"
X Link 2023-10-23T18:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Average online 1-year CD yield as of Oct 1st: 5.18% up from 5.10% on Sep 1st. This will likely rise in November. Average is based on 1-year CDs from [--] well-established online banks"
X Link 2023-10-26T01:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Average online 5-year CD yield as of Oct 1st: 3.95% no change from Sep 1st. Average is based on 5-yr CDs from [--] well-established online banks. Should rise a bit in Nov. Chart compares the online 5-yr CD avg yield to the fed rate & 5-yr T-note yield:"
X Link 2023-10-26T01:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Core PCE inflation the Fed's preferred inflation measure came in line with consensus forecasts"
X Link 2023-10-27T18:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"From @WSJ on PCE: "Fed officials projected core inflation would fall to 3.7% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. Fridays report suggests inflation would end the year below that projection which could strengthen the case to hold rates steady.""
X Link 2023-10-27T18:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fintech problems: "Evolve Bank & Trust which had been the companys primary banking partner notified Synapse that it planned to end their relationship" "The breakup has turned messy after the discovery of a $14 million hole in a Synapse account at Evolve holding client funds""
X Link 2023-10-27T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Higher Bond Yields Could End the Feds Historic Rate Rises @NickTimiraos for @WSJ Why we might be at the peak federal funds rate now: "Some economists say the rise in yields term premium is worth two or three Fed rate hikes""
X Link 2023-10-30T18:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""beyond the next FOMC meeting markets rarely ever forecast correctly.""
X Link 2023-10-30T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Money market funds will likely attract deposits even from online banks. Example of MMF yield advantages over online savings accounts: Vanguard Federal MMF = 5.43% cmp yield Marcus savings account = 4.40% APY AMEX savings account = 4.30% APY Ally savings account = 4.25% APY"
X Link 2023-11-03T00:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Why Banks Are Suddenly Closing Down Customer Accounts @nytimes via @YahooNews Article details the practices of many banks to close accounts when customers' transactions are flagged as suspicious. Many innocent customers are hit with no recourse"
X Link 2023-11-06T16:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Average online 1-year CD yield as of Nov 1st: 5.29% up from 5.19% on Oct 1st. Average is based on 1-year CDs from [--] well-established online banks"
X Link 2023-11-09T02:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Average online 5-year CD yield as of Nov 1st: 3.98% up from 3.95% on Oct 1st. Average is based on 5-yr CDs from [--] well-established online banks. Chart compares the online 5-yr CD avg yield to the fed rate & 5-yr T-note yield:"
X Link 2023-11-09T02:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Cooling Inflation Likely Ends Fed Rate Hikes @WSJ "A broad slowdown in inflation continued in October likely ending the Federal Reserves historic interest-rate increases. ""
X Link 2023-11-14T16:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fed's preferred measure of inflation PCE Price Index for October is scheduled for release on November [--]. If Core PCE comes in as expected based on Oct CPI & PPI numbers this will be more support for the Fed to hold rates steady at its Dec 12-13 meeting"
X Link 2023-11-15T20:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"JPMorgan Chase accused of de-banking defaming a Florida business @Orla_McCaffrey for @AmerBanker "Sinai Holdings . alleges in a complaint filed last week that JPMorgan closed business accounts with little warning and poisoned its business relationships with misinformation""
X Link 2023-11-20T21:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"One of the key economic data releases this week is on Thursday. The Feds preferred inflation gauge core PCE is expected to be 0.2% m/m (3.5% y/y) for Oct. down from 0.3% for Sep. (3.7% y/y)"
X Link 2023-11-26T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Odds of a Fed rate hike at the Dec 12-13 meeting has fallen to almost zero (0.8%) from 4.6% yesterday (per CME FedWatch Tool)"
X Link 2023-11-28T15:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As part of a useful primer on yield curve inversions this thread by @MacroAlf includes this insightful graphic on what drives bond yields"
X Link 2023-11-28T16:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Noteworthy excerpts from FDIC's Q3 Banking Profile: "Unrealized losses on securities totaled $683.9 billion in the third quarter up $125.5 billion (22.5 percent) from the prior quarter." "Loans that were [--] days or more past due . increased to [----] percent of total loans""
X Link 2023-11-29T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Jobs report lowers odds of Fed rate cuts in early [----] Odds of a Fed rate cut by Fed's March 19-20 meeting: 52.2% down from 64.5% yesterday per CME FedWatch Tool"
X Link 2023-12-08T15:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Risk of bank apps: "They grab cellphones and demand pass codes to banking apps like Zelle and Venmo. A Chicago architect who lost more than $2000 that way says: Dont have any banking apps on your phone.""
X Link 2023-12-08T17:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Economic events for this week. Two to note: CPI report on Tuesday and FOMC meeting statement & economic projections on Wednesday"
X Link 2023-12-10T23:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A New Era of Income Investing Is Turning Boomers Into Bond Buyers @WSJ "Stock bull markets helped make boomers rich. High bond yields are helping them retire.""
X Link 2023-12-11T14:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why banks may still face pain on deposit costs next year @polorocha18 for @AmerBanker "Some banks are starting to cut CD rates now that the odds of Fed rate cuts are rising according to Ken Tumin of"
X Link 2023-12-12T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sticky core CPI may contribute to the Fed delaying its first rate cut. We may see this in the dot plot of the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections that'll be released on Wednesday"
X Link 2023-12-12T14:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Good point by @TipsWatch if the Fed continues lowering its balance sheet the yield curve should steepen making longer-term TIPS relatively more attractive"
X Link 2023-12-14T15:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Market expectations for a March Fed rate cut may be premature"
X Link 2023-12-18T16:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"How the Fintech Rally Could Fizzle in [----] @telisdemos for @WSJ "Falling interest rates might be a surprising challenge" "Investors in [----] are also unlikely to totally set aside credit risk even if a soft landing is the envisioned outcome.""
X Link 2023-12-18T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Odds of at least [--] Fed rate cuts in [----] are now over 60% per CME FedWatch Tool. Fed's December dot plot shows [--] rate cuts in 2024"
X Link 2023-12-19T23:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bond yields have been plummeting"
X Link 2023-12-20T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Small rate hike at Marcus by Goldman Sachs today: @Marcus High-Yield Savings account: 4.40% 4.50% APY (Apple Savings run by Goldman still only pays 4.15% APY.) @Marcus 13mo No-Penalty CD APY increased to 4.70%. Earn 4.70% into [----] with no real loss of liquidity"
X Link 2023-12-20T15:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Small rate hike at @Ally today Online Savings Account: 4.25% 4.35% APY Money Market Account remains at 4.40% APY & 11mo No Penalty CD remains at 4.55% APY. Another option is to open an Ally Invest account & move money into MMFs ($VMFXX compound yield at 5.43%)"
X Link 2023-12-22T13:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@JonErlichman The Jetsons came out in [----] and some of its future visions came true such as the videophone. Not sure if anyone used email in the series. One major thing that we still dont have in the mass market is flying cars. https://nypost.com/2022/07/31/what-the-jetsons-predicted-right-and-wrong-about-the-future/ https://nypost.com/2022/07/31/what-the-jetsons-predicted-right-and-wrong-about-the-future/"
X Link 2023-12-24T15:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Only [--] years ago. Merry Christmas The World Wide Web was first tested on Christmas Day in [----]. Tim Berners-Lee and Robert Cailliau set up successful communication between a web browser & server via the Internet. https://t.co/wkPPaoNhNH The World Wide Web was first tested on Christmas Day in [----]. Tim Berners-Lee and Robert Cailliau set up successful communication between a web browser & server via the Internet. https://t.co/wkPPaoNhNH"
X Link 2023-12-25T18:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Japan Banks Finally Reward Long-Suffering Savers With 0.2% Rate @business "Three major Japanese banks lifted the rate on their 10-year deposits to 0.2% from 0.002% minuscule moves that signal looming shifts in the banking landscape.""
X Link 2023-12-26T18:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"With years of zero rates it's amazing how much more Japanese household money is in deposits instead of stocks"
X Link 2023-12-26T18:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Japan's central bank policy rate hasn't been above 0.50% since [----]. It has been -0.1% since 2016"
X Link 2023-12-26T18:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Market expectations for Fed rate cuts are rising. Odds of a March Fed rate cut are now 88.3% up from 79.0% last week. Market expectations for Fed Funds Rate path. -Jan [--] 2024: Pause -Mar [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 5.00-5.25% -May [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 4.75-5.00% -June [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 4.50-4.75% -July [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 4.25-4.50% -Additional cuts to 3.14% by Dec [----] https://t.co/7qF3lBLKsQ Market expectations for Fed Funds Rate path. -Jan [--] 2024: Pause -Mar [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 5.00-5.25% -May [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 4.75-5.00% -June [--] 2024: [--] bps cut to 4.50-4.75% -July [--] 2024:"
X Link 2023-12-27T16:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great thread of the [----] bank failures by @Hugh_Son [----] was a big year for the banking world 🌎 For starters that thing in March. A good reminder that "institutions" are run by flesh & blood who occasionally f--k up in serious ways 👇 https://t.co/7IeDuq40IG [--] of [--] [----] was a big year for the banking world 🌎 For starters that thing in March. A good reminder that "institutions" are run by flesh & blood who occasionally f--k up in serious ways 👇 https://t.co/7IeDuq40IG [--] of 10"
X Link 2023-12-28T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Yield Curve (10yr-3mo) has been inverted since October [----]. Treasuries: -3-Month yield ends the year at 5.4% highest year-end yield since [----]. Investors are betting this won't last w/ Fed cuts starting in March. -10-Yr yield of 3.88% is exactly where it entered the year. Closing high was 4.98% on Oct [--]. -Yield Curve remains inverted. https://t.co/WWRwDERlvq Treasuries: -3-Month yield ends the year at 5.4% highest year-end yield since [----]. Investors are betting this won't last w/ Fed cuts starting in March. -10-Yr yield of 3.88% is exactly where it entered the year. Closing high was"
X Link 2023-12-30T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Adding Bitcoin Blows Away the Balanced Portfolio. Why This Advisor Still Isnt Buying It @DPWienerAdviser for @barronsonline With the first spot bitcoin ETF likely to come in January should it be added to a 60/40 portfolio Some insightful thoughts"
X Link 2023-12-30T14:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""fintechs are launching new products that aim to make it easier and more affordable for individual investors to gain exposure to fixed-income products like Treasuries and corporate bonds." Analysis-US #fintechs push into fixed-income trading as retail investor interest grows https://t.co/USn0njh1vr @yahoofinance https://t.co/3aOI5P9Jgs Analysis-US #fintechs push into fixed-income trading as retail investor interest grows https://t.co/USn0njh1vr @yahoofinance https://t.co/3aOI5P9Jgs"
X Link 2024-01-02T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fed Minutes Suggest Hikes Are Over But Offer No Timetable on Cuts @NickTimiraos for @WSJ "minutes of the meeting didnt show a meaningful debate about when to start lowering rates." Odds of a March rate cut are now 72.6% down from 79.0% yesterday and 90.2% a week ago. Fed officials thought they were probably done raising interest rates when they decided last month to hold rates steady but minutes of the meeting didnt show a meaningful debate about when to start lowering rates https://t.co/ZzyNKAp88d Fed officials thought they were probably done raising interest rates when they decided last"
X Link 2024-01-03T19:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@StealthQE4 A TIPS ladder combined with a stock index fund has advantages over fixed annuities. A good review of this at"
X Link 2024-01-05T02:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"More jobs added than expected in Jobs Report Odds of March Fed rate cut fall from 66.3% to 57.1% (per Feds Funds futures market via CME FedWatch Tool) Nonfarm payrolls +216K (vs. +170K expected) - Nov revised down to +173K from +199K Oct revised to +105K from +150K Unemployment +3.7% (vs. 3.8% exp) Avg hourly earnings +0.44% in Dec (+0.3% exp) https://t.co/41Ntjuw5tC Nonfarm payrolls +216K (vs. +170K expected) - Nov revised down to +173K from +199K Oct revised to +105K from +150K Unemployment +3.7% (vs. 3.8% exp) Avg hourly earnings +0.44% in Dec (+0.3% exp) https://t.co/41Ntjuw5tC"
X Link 2024-01-05T13:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Key economic events this week via @KobeissiLetter One to note: [--]. December CPI Inflation data - Thursday Consensus numbers: core CPI: 0.2% (MoM) 3.9% (YoY) November numbers: core CPI: 0.3% (MoM) 4.0% (YoY) Key Events This Week: [--]. 10-Year Note Auction - Wednesday [--]. Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday [--]. December CPI Inflation data - Thursday [--]. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday [--]. December PPI Inflation data - Friday [--]. Total of [--] Fed Members Speak Crucial inflation data Key Events This Week: [--]. 10-Year Note Auction - Wednesday [--]. Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday [--]. December CPI Inflation"
X Link 2024-01-07T15:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"US regional bank profits to be squeezed by pressure to pay for deposits @YahooFinance "the second-largest U.S. lender Bank of America pays an average 0.34% to consumer depositors while Utah-based Zions Bancorp pays about 2.10% for deposits and interest-bearing liabilities" Analysis-US regional bank profits to be squeezed by pressure to pay for deposits https://t.co/zRGi4dZIKQ @yahoofinance https://t.co/oPGdVxld2T Analysis-US regional bank profits to be squeezed by pressure to pay for deposits https://t.co/zRGi4dZIKQ @yahoofinance https://t.co/oPGdVxld2T"
X Link 2024-01-09T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Here. Should You Invest @MstarArmour for @MorningstarInc Great overview of the new spot bitcoin ETFs and issues to consider before deciding to invest Choose your bitcoin ETF fighter wisely https://t.co/hM6h4W2H1Y https://t.co/6U1OooIAFO Choose your bitcoin ETF fighter wisely https://t.co/hM6h4W2H1Y https://t.co/6U1OooIAFO"
X Link 2024-01-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"After today's PPI data and yesterday's CPI data odds of a March Fed rate cut is now 75.8% up from 68.1% last week (per Fed Funds futures market via CME FedWatch Tool) PPI--the 'Producer Price Index' the prices firms pay for before selling to consumers--was negative last month muted on an annual basis a) good news for the Fed's self-professed key inflation gauge: PCE b) will pad corporate margins if savings aren't passed along to consumers https://t.co/zUbZ4eQvTD PPI--the 'Producer Price Index' the prices firms pay for before selling to consumers--was negative last month muted on an annual"
X Link 2024-01-12T13:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Rick_Ferri Chasing performance may encourage many to just go with $VOO or $VTI since domestic stocks have outperformed international. But for diversification $VT and $VXUS still makes sense. 10-year average total annual returns: 12.0% $VOO 11.5% $VTI 4.1% $VXUS 8.1% $VT"
X Link 2024-01-12T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@WOLF_Financial $VXUS for international exposure"
X Link 2024-01-18T02:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Happy Birthday to Peter Lynch who turns [--] today Fidelitys legendary fund manager retired in [----] at the age of [--]. As @DividendGrowth described Peter Lynch can teach us a lot about having enough Peter Lynch can teach us a lot about having "enough" He achieved his success and made a lot of money But he retired at age [--] to live life on his own terms He spent more time with his family and his charitable causes A more rounded life is a richer life in my opinion https://t.co/erm27tDb0O Peter Lynch can teach us a lot about having "enough" He achieved his success and made a lot of money But he"
X Link 2024-01-19T10:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DividendGrowth My favorite one: [--]. Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves"
X Link 2024-01-19T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@charliebilello Money market fund yields will quickly fall with the Fed rate cuts. The recent rise in CD holdings show that people are locking into CDs before rates fall. Banks have taken advantage of this. CD rates have been falling since November"
X Link 2024-01-20T17:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@tanya_t___ Yup [--] isnt old. My dad retired at [--] and lived to [--]. Fortunately he had a government pension that was indexed to inflation. In todays world pensions and esp. those indexed to inflation are history. So its very important to start investing when youre young"
X Link 2024-01-20T19:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Key Economic Events This Week by @KobeissiLetter My note: PCE price index Feds preferred inflation gauge for December to be released Friday. Forecasts for December Core PCE: 0.17% m/m & 2.9% y/y November Core PCE: 0.06% m/m & 3.2% y/y Key Events This Week: [--]. Manufacturing PMI data - Wednesday [--]. Core Durable Goods Orders - Thursday [--]. Q4 [----] GDP data - Thursday [--]. New Home Sales data - Thursday [--]. December PCE Inflation data - Friday [--]. 20% of S&P [---] companies report earnings We are [--] week out Key Events This Week: [--]. Manufacturing PMI data - Wednesday [--]. Core Durable Goods Orders -"
X Link 2024-01-21T22:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great chart that shows why time in the market beats timing the market By trying to avoid the worst days investors also avoid the best days as well This is why time in the market beats timing the market https://t.co/gwHZ2A2w96 By trying to avoid the worst days investors also avoid the best days as well This is why time in the market beats timing the market https://t.co/gwHZ2A2w96"
X Link 2024-01-22T13:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Insights into Ally Bank's deposit pricing plans in @allyfinancial's Q4 Earnings Call: Ally's CFO: "With a tightening cycle potentially behind us we are confident the company is set up for meaningful earnings expansion . We see a clear path to 4% net interest margin" 1/3"
X Link 2024-01-22T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just learned of a bizarre bank acquisition In October the FDIC reported that Plus International Bank acquired Emigrant Bank and changed its name to Emigrant Bank. Emigrant Bank now has the Certificate # of Plus International Bank (57083). 1/4"
X Link 2024-01-22T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Broadest Vanguard Stock Fund Available @DanielSotiroff for @MorningstarInc Useful basic overview of Vanguard Total World Stock Index ($VTWAX) and the ETF version Vanguard Total World Stock ETF ($VT) Investors get access to the entire global stock market in this low-cost #Vanguard fund. https://t.co/ACEXgfB81W Investors get access to the entire global stock market in this low-cost #Vanguard fund. https://t.co/ACEXgfB81W"
X Link 2024-01-24T23:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"GDP report: economy grew at a faster rate than expected in Q4. This should lower the odds of a March Fed rate cut. 🔸 Strong U.S. Growth Cools Bets On March Interest Rate Cut The strong 3.3% U.S. GDP growth rate in 4Q cools bets that interest rates would be cut in March. While the government's advance estimate is slower than the 4.9% pace in 3Q it's faster than the 2% consensus. The number 🔸 Strong U.S. Growth Cools Bets On March Interest Rate Cut The strong 3.3% U.S. GDP growth rate in 4Q cools bets that interest rates would be cut in March. While the government's advance estimate is slower"
X Link 2024-01-25T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Could higher interest rates be the new normal Nice surprise with BEA report showing GDP increasing at an annual rate of 3.3% in the 4th qtr higher than expected. Amidst clamoring for rate cuts could it be that higher interest rates are compatible with if not supportive of strong sustainable economic growth Nice surprise with BEA report showing GDP increasing at an annual rate of 3.3% in the 4th qtr higher than expected. Amidst clamoring for rate cuts could it be that higher interest rates are compatible with if not supportive of strong sustainable economic growth"
X Link 2024-01-25T21:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why Is Everyone Always Wrong About the Fed @MorningstarInc "Tradersand the Fed itselfare notoriously bad at predicting interest rate moves. Will expectations of rate cuts in [----] be any different""
X Link 2024-01-29T17:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""US regional bank executives say the pressure to pay up to keep depositors from leaving which cut profits last year is easing paving the way for better earnings" This is another reason for falling CD rates in the last month. US regional banks hope for profit revival as pain from SVB fallout eases https://t.co/86FDBiJIC3 @FT https://t.co/igUG0yhmkw US regional banks hope for profit revival as pain from SVB fallout eases https://t.co/86FDBiJIC3 @FT https://t.co/igUG0yhmkw"
X Link 2024-01-29T19:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Helpful thread on bear steepening of the yield curve by @MacroAlf Over the last month an interesting behavior in bond markets is back. The yield curve is bear steepening again. What does it mean and why does it matter 1/ https://t.co/tNzMuFDlRv Over the last month an interesting behavior in bond markets is back. The yield curve is bear steepening again. What does it mean and why does it matter 1/ https://t.co/tNzMuFDlRv"
X Link 2024-01-30T14:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BrianFeroldi Good reason to stick with a broad market index fund/ETF. $SPY was started in [----] and its annual total return for [--] years had been about 10%"
X Link 2024-01-30T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DividendGrowth Lots of investment milestones in the 1920s. $MITTX is about [--] years older than Vanguard Wellington Fund ($VWELX). Its the nation's oldest balanced fund (founded in 1929). Annual total return since its inception is 8.26%"
X Link 2024-01-31T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@FDICgov Regarding helping consumers spot "FAKE banks" the bankfind tool still appears unable to verify the secondary URLs of banks. For example it can no longer recognize as owned by First National Bank of Omaha. This secondary URL is over [--] years old"
X Link 2024-01-31T18:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Regional Bank Stocks Fall After New York Community Bancorp Cuts Dividend Posts Loss @WillFOIA for @WSJ"
X Link 2024-01-31T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Today's strong jobs report lowers odds of a Fed rate cut in March. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March moved under 20% after the stronger-than-expected employment report. A month ago markets were pricing in a 70% probability. https://t.co/W5XylFd23e The odds of a Fed rate cut in March moved under 20% after the stronger-than-expected employment report. A month ago markets were pricing in a 70% probability. https://t.co/W5XylFd23e"
X Link 2024-02-02T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A stealthy way for a bank to move out of New York I reviewed Emigrant Bank's odd acquisition of a small FL-based bank and how it ended its NY state charter. The new Emigrant Bank now has FL state charter. Its online divisions are well known by savers"
X Link 2024-02-02T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Important to understand the difference between disinflation and deflation One of the biggest misconceptions about inflation: Over the last few months many influential figures and publications have asked the same question. "Why are prices still rising if inflation is falling" The process of inflation coming down is called disinflation but we still https://t.co/GTPHc3xN3e One of the biggest misconceptions about inflation: Over the last few months many influential figures and publications have asked the same question. "Why are prices still rising if inflation is falling" The process of inflation"
X Link 2024-02-04T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"According to the FDIC FL-based Plus International Bank ($49 million in assets) acquired NY-based Emigrant Bank ($6.4 BILLION in assets). The outcome is a new FL-based Emigrant Bank. Emigrant Bank is well known to many savers due its [--] online banks"
X Link 2024-02-05T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"News on LendingClub Bank being released from an OCC operating agreement by @The_Bank_Slate Coincidentally just last week LendingClubs High-Yield Savings account had its largest rate hike since Jan [----] (rising [--] bps to 5.00% APY). LendingClub $LC has been released from an @USOCC operating agreement tied to its [----] purchase of Radius Bancorp. https://t.co/fMx1Z7croo LendingClub $LC has been released from an @USOCC operating agreement tied to its [----] purchase of Radius Bancorp. https://t.co/fMx1Z7croo"
X Link 2024-02-05T22:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"People who exit the stock market to avoid a decline are odds-on favorites to miss the next rally. -Peter Lynch "Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done - except by liars." - Bernard Baruch Video: https://t.co/4IUxQ6KARn https://t.co/1GIhMeG4LO "Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done - except by liars." - Bernard Baruch Video: https://t.co/4IUxQ6KARn https://t.co/1GIhMeG4LO"
X Link 2024-02-07T00:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@zerohedge NYCB (Flagstar Bank) has been reducing its uninsured deposits for the last two quarters of [----]. Estimated % of deposits that were uninsured: Q2 2023: 45% (per FDIC) Q3 2023: 40% (per FDIC) Q4 2023: 33% (per Moody's)"
X Link 2024-02-07T00:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@NickTimiraos Interesting that there are no longer forecasts for the first rate cut in July. Out of the [--] sell-side banks & Fed watchers [--] are forecasting the first rate cut in May and [--] in June. A month ago [--] forecasted the first rate cut in March [--] in May [--] in June and [--] in July"
X Link 2024-02-08T20:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Odds remain low for a March Fed rate cut. Out of the [--] sell-side banks & Fed watchers [--] are forecasting the first rate cut in May and [--] in June. A month ago [--] forecasted the first rate cut in March [--] in May [--] in June and [--] in July. There has been a notable narrowing in views among sell-side banks and other Fed watchers around when the first rate cut occurs. All now see the first cut in either May or June and are nearly evenly divided on that question. There's a wide range on the question of how many cuts. https://t.co/AtlFIKHT8F There has been a notable narrowing in views among sell-side"
X Link 2024-02-08T20:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@The_Bank_Slate One thing I noticed about this bank failure is that the cost to the DIF was quite high in proportion to the bank's size. The embezzlement may explain it"
X Link 2024-02-08T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3 regional banks that have high exposure to commercial real estate: - New York Community Bancorp - Valley National Bancorp - City National Bank of Florida All [--] have online divisions with online savings accounts paying over 5% APY. The office vacancy rate in the US has moved up to 19.6% the highest level in history. Video: https://t.co/d3bwfxd1sZ https://t.co/J3FQM4oWmF The office vacancy rate in the US has moved up to 19.6% the highest level in history. Video: https://t.co/d3bwfxd1sZ https://t.co/J3FQM4oWmF"
X Link 2024-02-11T00:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Cleveland Fed's Nowcast CPI inflation forecasts: Jan [----] Core CPI forecasts: 0.32% m/m 3.81% y/y Jan CPI scheduled to be released at 8:30am Tuesday Our #CPI indicator updates tomorrow. Our #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily) predicts year-over-year CPI #inflation of 2.94% in January. Check it out: https://t.co/3MBqxpohBj https://t.co/gqTko8Y5DR Our #CPI indicator updates tomorrow. Our #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily) predicts year-over-year CPI #inflation of 2.94% in January. Check it out: https://t.co/3MBqxpohBj https://t.co/gqTko8Y5DR"
X Link 2024-02-12T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DividendGrowth @ValueStockGeek With the S&P [---] index having a 10yr annual return of 12.6% many may be overconfident. Total annual return examples of index ETFs from 6/6/2001 to 8/31/2010: $SPY (S&P 500) -0.23% $MDY (S&P Midcap 400) 4.20% $VTI (Total US Stock Market) 0.86% Source:"
X Link 2024-02-12T17:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Large Treasury yield gains today: 2yr: 4.46% 4.64% 10yr: 4.17% 4.31% And the odds of a March Fed rate had a big drop: 16.0% 8.5% Wondering how a small miss on the US #inflation numbers can result in such a spike in yields on US government #bonds (2- and 10-year below) A lot of it has to do with the extent to which #markets had embraced subject to limited critical thinking the narrative of a very soft https://t.co/TLxLxPVUPD Wondering how a small miss on the US #inflation numbers can result in such a spike in yields on US government #bonds (2- and 10-year below) A lot of it has to do with the"
X Link 2024-02-13T23:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Upside surprises on both PPI and CPI inflation reports: "Combined with this week's hot CPI report the market is now pricing less than 30% odds of a rate cut in may." PPI surprised to the upside bigly which will also lift estimates for the Jan PCE inflation report that will come out at the end of the month. Combined with this week's hot CPI report the market is now pricing less than 30% odds of a rate cut in may. Core PPI surprised even https://t.co/yQff4Btlxn PPI surprised to the upside bigly which will also lift estimates for the Jan PCE inflation report that will come out at the end of the"
X Link 2024-02-16T15:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The late-John Bogle had a simple formula for expected returns in the stock market that looks like this: Expected Stock Market Returns = Dividend Yield + Earnings Growth +/- the Change in P/E Ratio Heres the latest data through the end of 2023: What's driving stock market returns Fundamentals (mostly) https://t.co/sToedVyPXF https://t.co/1B3FxFKNyh What's driving stock market returns Fundamentals (mostly) https://t.co/sToedVyPXF https://t.co/1B3FxFKNyh"
X Link 2024-02-19T17:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Lessons From a Three-Decade-Long Stock Market Disaster @jmackin2 for @WSJ "Japans Nikkei [---] index is within a hairs breadth of passing its [----] high and ending a 34-year dry spell for the countrys shareholders.""
X Link 2024-02-21T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"January FOMC meeting minutes were just released. Odds of a March Fed rate cut are now 6.5% down from 8% yesterday and down from 47% a month ago (per CME FedWatch Tool) Jan FOMC meeting minutes were just released and no big surprises: rate cuts are not imminent. The Fed remains cautious worried about a potential acceleration of inflation worried about cutting too soon and upside risk from easier financial conditions. *FED: OFFICIALS JUDGED Jan FOMC meeting minutes were just released and no big surprises: rate cuts are not imminent. The Fed remains cautious worried about a potential"
X Link 2024-02-21T19:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DividendGrowth Congrats on the 200k milestone and for 16+ years of DGI writing One of my faves in the archives: Investing Lessons Learned From [--] Years of Writing"
X Link 2024-02-22T21:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@AmerBanker @BMO BMO's acquisition of Bank of the West in Feb [----] was probably the primary driver of this 50% deposit growth for the year"
X Link 2024-02-23T19:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When High-Yield Savings Accounts Come With an Asterisk @RachelEnsignWSJ for @WSJ Glad to help with this piece on the "create-a-new-account" tactic that online banks have done to reduce their deposit costs at the expense of their existing customers"
X Link 2024-02-25T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ah_shapiro "liquid assets . have been diminishing and are approaching levels significantly lower than the projected prepandemic path. As these excess liquid funds run out consumers may decide to pull back on spending." May explain the recession delay after the inverted yield curve"
X Link 2024-02-26T19:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Example of the importance of diversification in stock investing Valuations today: Apple: $2.8 trillion BlackBerry: $1.5 billion Valuations [--] years ago: Apple: $79 billion BlackBerry: $28 billion https://t.co/AarvqG1nE2 Valuations today: Apple: $2.8 trillion BlackBerry: $1.5 billion Valuations [--] years ago: Apple: $79 billion BlackBerry: $28 billion https://t.co/AarvqG1nE2"
X Link 2024-03-02T17:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Key economic events for this week via @KobeissiLetter One note: On Friday March 8th the February jobs report comes out. Consensus is for 190k jobs added and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%. Key Events This Week: [--]. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday [--]. Fed Chair Powell Testifies - Wednesday [--]. JOLTs Jobs data - Wednesday [--]. Fed Chair Powell Testifies - Thursday [--]. February Jobs Report - Friday [--]. Total of [--] Fed speaker events this week This week is all Key Events This Week: [--]. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday [--]. Fed Chair Powell Testifies - Wednesday [--]. JOLTs"
X Link 2024-03-03T23:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"On todays world of finance and investing from the founder and CEO of @M1Finance I do think theres too much focus on short-termism and immediate gratification. You get the long-term outcomes by doing the right things consistently over an incredibly long period of time Founder and CEO of @M1Finance @Barnes_M1 shares how his passion for investing led to the creation of this powerful personal finance app https://t.co/VKLeXdAdGL @Entreprenuer https://t.co/cLan288dPS Founder and CEO of @M1Finance @Barnes_M1 shares how his passion for investing led to the creation of this powerful personal finance"
X Link 2024-03-04T15:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@mi_jim @M1Finance @Barnes_M1 @ENTREPRENUER I was trying to understand how M1 works with its partner banks and I came across this [----] blog post by Barnes: "SoI bought a bank" Wonder if this is the first fintech CEO who purchased a bank Note M1 didn't buy the bank Brian Barnes did"
X Link 2024-03-04T18:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
""the regional lender might have to pay more to retain deposits according to analysts who track the company." Keep an eye on NYCB's online bank My Banking Direct. Its savings account rate (5.35% APY) continues to be near the rate leaders. This has held since November. NEW: W/ NYCB shares in freefall analysts have pointed to contractual obligations that bank needs an investment-grade rating to keep certain pockets of deposits. It lost that Friday after Moody's slashed ratings again 👇 https://t.co/PnLLo7yDce NEW: W/ NYCB shares in freefall analysts have pointed to contractual obligations that"
X Link 2024-03-04T21:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@JonErlichman About Whitney Wolfe Herd (founder of Bumble): "The Bumble IPO makes Wolfe Herd [--] the youngest woman to take a company public (and according to Bloomberg with a $1.5 billion payday a rare self-made female billionaire).""
X Link 2024-03-08T21:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CPI forecasts for Tuesday (March 12) at 8:30 AM EDT All eyes are on the February CPI this week Wall Street forecasters expect the core CPI index rose 0.3% lowering the 12-month rate to 3.7% from 3.9% in January They see the headline index up 0.4% in February due to higher energy prices leaving the 12-month rate at 3.1% https://t.co/wA2ebosleO All eyes are on the February CPI this week Wall Street forecasters expect the core CPI index rose 0.3% lowering the 12-month rate to 3.7% from 3.9% in January They see the headline index up 0.4% in February due to higher energy prices leaving the"
X Link 2024-03-12T00:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Feb Core PCE index won't be out until Mar 29th but it can be estimated based on CPI and PPI. The median forecast for Feb Core PCE is now 0.29% m/m. If Feb Core PCE does come in around 0.3% m/m it could convince the Fed to delay the first rate cut to after June. The Feb core PCE index probably rose 0.3% according to the forecasters who translate the CPI and PPI into the PCE *PPI revisions may lift January's reported 0.42% by a few bps *That'd put the 12-month rate at 2.8% and bump the 6-month annualized rate to 2.9% or 3% (from 2.5%) https://t.co/xvbqGjuM34 The Feb core PCE index probably rose"
X Link 2024-03-15T16:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Japan's policy rate has been set at -0.10% since January [----]. Its negative rate policy may soon end. Take Five: Is Bank of Japan ready to exit negative rates https://t.co/Akk54SqLuL @reuters https://t.co/FUODOYsnSH Take Five: Is Bank of Japan ready to exit negative rates https://t.co/Akk54SqLuL @reuters https://t.co/FUODOYsnSH"
X Link 2024-03-15T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Lindsey_McBride VMFXX pays out interest monthly. If you add it back into the fund you can determine the compound yield (comparable to a bank's APY) by using a rate-to-APY converter with a compounding period of [--]. Vanguard lists VMFXX's compound yield as 5.40% with a 7-day SEC yield of 5.27%"
X Link 2024-03-17T00:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
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