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@robin_j_brooks "US tariffs on China are back up to 150%. Markets are trading this like in early April. The Dollar fell driven down by rate differentials. Markets - again - think tariffs will backfire on Trump. A flight to safety pushed up gold prices. S&P XXX tumbled"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-11T12:57Z 351.7K followers, 68.6K engagements

"China's export volumes are holding up in the face of US tariffs. That's happening because China is flooding the rest of the world with discounted goods. That creates the illusion that China has the upper hand in the trade war but it doesn't. China's exporters are hurting badly"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-16T11:30Z 351.7K followers, 49.2K engagements

"China today released June trade data. Its exports to Nauru - the third smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco - are up 6000% from a year ago. A symptom of how powerfully US tariffs are hitting China pushing a flood of Chinese exports to everywhere else"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-07-18T20:21Z 351.7K followers, 807.4K engagements

"China is playing hardball with rare earths not because it has the upper hand in the trade conflict with the US but because it has to. China's exports to the US have been clobbered and are a massive hit to China's export sector. China is in a position of weakness not strength"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-11T15:41Z 351.7K followers, 243.7K engagements

"@JohnArnoldFndtn I discussed the Dollar fall on Friday and in early April in a recent post on Substack. There's another parallel with early April which is that gold prices also shot up on both occasions as the tariff stand-off with China escalated. Flight to safety"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T12:26Z 351.5K followers, 1131 engagements

"The US trade deficit with Vietnam (rhs) has within a few months in 2025 surpassed our deficit with Mexico (lhs). This is the closest to a "smoking gun" there is for signs of transshipment of Chinese goods to the US. The US didn't suddenly in 2025 decide it loves Vietnamese goods"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-13T12:54Z 351.7K followers, 58.7K engagements

"Yesterday was the first day in a long time that gold prices rose (black) and the Dollar fell (blue). Ever since Jackson Hole the rise in gold has been about a flight to safety out of ALL fiat currencies but that changed yesterday. Tariffs caused a flight into gold out of USD"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-11T13:32Z 351.6K followers, 23.9K engagements

"What's driving the crazy rise in gold prices At its root it's about fear that the Fed has capitulated to Trump and is easing into an economy where inflation is rising. This week's IMF/WB meetings may end the gold rally and replace it with a Dollar rally"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-16T11:37Z 351.7K followers, 27.4K engagements

"@YanLian31677392 The headline of your chart says Export prices are down. Thats exactly the point I am making. China is having to cut prices to get its overflow of goods sold on global markets. Thats a negative shock to Chinas exporters and explains why China is escalating using rare earths"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-15T11:29Z 351.7K followers, XXX engagements

"The US is huge. It's easy to forget that Trump's immigration crackdown is popular in large parts of the country. You don't hear about that much because people self-censor amid all the name-calling. But I was reminded of this earlier this week while travelling through the US"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T15:02Z 351.7K followers, 31.7K engagements

"Argentina should be transforming itself into a huge agricultural & energy exporter like Brazil has done. Instead its battling capital flight because of its pathological fixation on pegging to the Dollar. Great piece by @DubeRyan in @WSJ"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-16T11:17Z 351.7K followers, 21K engagements

"Great piece by @greg_ip in @WSJ on the massive rally in gold prices. The rise in gold prices coincides with a stable Dollar and a sharp spike in long-term yields. Markets think high debt levels will be inflated away. Gold is a safe haven"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-08T11:24Z 351.7K followers, 27.7K engagements

"Median net household wealth in Spain (blue) is more than double that in Germany (black). The current set up in the Euro zone where German tax payers make hidden transfers to Spain via joint EU debt issuance and ECB yield caps is politically unsustainable because it's so unfair"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-05T14:53Z 351.7K followers, 125.9K engagements

"The crisis in France is about X things: (i) a political center that's desperately trying to keep right-wing populism out of gov't; (ii) broken Euro zone fiscal incentives that enable bad policy; (iii) a global rise in debt post-COVID. Long-term yields are up sharply everywhere"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-06T12:21Z 351.5K followers, 58.1K engagements

"China's global trade surplus in the first X months of 2025 reached a stunning $XXX bn. That's an order of magnitude higher than any previous surplus in the first X months of the year. China is very clearly at the root of major imbalances in global trade which need to be fixed"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-04-14T14:31Z 351.6K followers, 80.1K engagements

"The Euro zone is a system where fiscally responsible countries subsidize chronically irresponsible ones. This happens via open-ended no-strings-attached transfers by way of joint EU debt issuance and periodic ECB yield caps. A system that will fail because incentives are broken"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-05T15:06Z 351.6K followers, 102.3K engagements

"@JohnArnoldFndtn It's the single biggest puzzle this year and - as you say - goes against every single model out there. Theory says that markets should price a more hawkish Fed as a result of tariffs (the inflation impulse). But markets price a more dovish one because they see recession coming"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T12:23Z 351.6K followers, 2972 engagements

"There's now a string of German polls showing AfD overtaking CDU as Germany's lead party. AfD is riding popular discontent on immigration and will keep growing unless the political center finally confronts this issue. If the center is "too posh" to do that AfD will keep rising"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T12:42Z 351.7K followers, 149K engagements

"@HannoLustig There's an interesting counterpoint playing out in Germany right now. A group of XX young parliamentarians are threatening to hold up passage of pension reform because it's unfair to young people and adds too much debt. They'll get steamrollered but kudos to them"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-15T01:42Z 351.7K followers, 3098 engagements

"In July 2022 the ECB bought lots of Italian gov't debt and took Italy off the market which helped Meloni win the election. This kind of political interference looks like it's happening again. French debt has stopped rolling off the ECB balance sheet"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-10T11:39Z 351.6K followers, 51.2K engagements

"US tariffs are inflationary for the US and deflationary for everyone else. They cause China to divert all the goods it used to export to the US to the rest of the world which now gets a flood of deeply discounted stuff. China also imports less as it tries to sell stuff at home"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-11T17:58Z 351.7K followers, 30.5K engagements

"Gold went up on Friday because of market anxiety over tariffs. That anxiety went away over the weekend but gold is up anyway today. There's something increasingly otherworldly about the rise in gold prices which are now up XX% since Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Aug. 22"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-13T18:46Z 351.7K followers, 33.4K engagements

"@mederComments It just underscores the point I made. China's resilient export picture is because exports to the rest of the world are up even as its exports to the US have collapsed. The only way you can generate demand for so many goods outside of the US is if you do steep discounting"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-13T14:48Z 351.7K followers, 1203 engagements

"Right after Russia invaded Ukraine China's exports to Singapore exploded (black) and have yet to come back down from those elevated levels. Singapore is a hub for global trade. This spike suggests it became - and still is - a hub for transshipments from China to Russia"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-13T13:02Z 351.7K followers, 31.2K engagements

"TARGET2 balances are unconditional and indefinite balance of payments support. In EM the equivalent is IMF programs which mandate reforms. Not so in the Euro zone where TARGET2 perpetuates bad economic and political equilibria in high-debt countries"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-26T11:50Z 351.7K followers, 76.2K engagements

"Today was a really bad day in global bond markets with longer-term yields spiking everywhere. At the root of all this is Japan where markets worry about the likely next prime minister who's a fiscal dove. Huge spike in Japan's 30-year JGB. Japan is a safe haven no more"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-06T20:48Z 351.6K followers, 110.5K engagements

"@paulmidler Right. That is possible. What's striking is how quickly Chinese exports to Vietnam rose this year. I don't think that can be justified with increased production in Vietnam etc. That kind of thing is about finished goods crossing borders in increased fashion to arbitrage tariffs"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-13T14:43Z 351.6K followers, XXX engagements

"NY Fed custody holdings of marketable Treasuries on behalf of central banks around the world had a sizeable dip in September. This kind of thing usually happens when EM is under depreciation pressure but September was a risk-on EM-positive month after a dovish Jackson Hole"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-16T12:48Z 351.7K followers, 8261 engagements

"Short-term US yields are tumbling as the trade war with China escalates. But the real story in the US and globally is about longer-term yields and those continue to have an upward trend. That's the global debt overhang that's pushing up long-term fiscal risk premia"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-15T11:12Z 351.7K followers, 46.2K engagements

""Liberation Day" chaos damaged US reserve currency status. Reserve manager allocations to USD fell from XX% in Q1 to XX% in Q2 (black). Reserve managers are risk averse so hardly ever make big changes. This is a -XXX standard deviation drop. An exodus"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-08T10:40Z 351.5K followers, 49.9K engagements

"When Milei became Argentina's President in Dec '23 I banged the drum to float the Peso. That didn't happen and here we are again. The Peso is down XX% in recent weeks (lhs) FX reserves are tumbling and the discount on the parallel $/ARS rate is widening (rhs). Another crisis"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-21T09:57Z 351.5K followers, 99.7K engagements

"There's no ECB funny business going on for France. Roll-off of French debt paused this summer because gross amortizations happened to be zero. Italy and Spain thus remain the only countries where the ECB has actively capped yields (in 2022). Thanks @Alea_"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-10T18:53Z 351.5K followers, 26.4K engagements

"Can the ECB just let French yields rise No because an Italy blow-up is always lurking for the Euro zone. Sharply higher French yields would cause immediate contagion to Italy. The ECB has proven - again and again - that it protects Italy. All roads lead to Rome as they say"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-08-25T19:11Z 351.6K followers, 51.9K engagements

"There's no doubt that global reserve managers are exiting the Dollar. That's a medium-term trend that pre-dates Trump and benefits AUD CAD CNY and other smaller currencies. The Euro has failed to benefit even during the massive Q2 2025 tariff turmoil"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-09T11:01Z 351.6K followers, 74.4K engagements

"Gold (black) is now up a stunning XX% since Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August XX. This is happening even as the Dollar (blue) is stable against other fiat currencies so what's happening is an across-the-board debasement in fiat currencies against gold"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-23T16:49Z 351.6K followers, 54.3K engagements

"China is diverting lots of goods that would have gone to the US - prior to tariffs - to the rest of the world. That's a massive rise in supply of Chinese stuff which the world is only willing to buy at lower prices. That adversely hits Chinese exporters"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T12:27Z 351.7K followers, 120.6K engagements

"There's instability building in EM. Best way to see that is to look at how currencies have done since Powell's very dovish Jackson Hole speech on August XX. That speech should have lifted all EM. Instead we're seeing many EM currencies struggling. Counterintuitive and worrying"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-21T15:06Z 351.6K followers, 29.9K engagements

"@jb7gdc The chart shows the impact on the rest of the world setting aside the US. So the supply of Chinese goods (that previously would have gone to the US) goes up to the rest of the world. That's a shift in the supply curve down and to the right. These are goods diverted from the US"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T14:16Z 351.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Mexico should not waste time on counterproductive retaliation to US tariffs. Mexico is much smaller than the US so retaliation: (a) isn't credible; and (b) risks making a bad situation worse. Better to let the Mexican Peso fall. It is still substantially overvalued after all"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-02-02T14:28Z 351.6K followers, 372.1K engagements

"The dominant narrative is that China has the upper hand over the US but that's nonsense. China depends on its export sector to grow. US tariffs are a body blow to that sector as China's exports show. China plays hardball on rare earths because it has to"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T11:52Z 351.7K followers, 296.7K engagements

"@baoshaoshan China's FDI data suggest a sharp fall in profitability of foreign subsidiaries that began many years ago (around the time of the first round of US tariffs on China in 2018). And no. Chinese dumping of cheap goods on the world is not good news. We've seen that movie before"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T13:08Z 351.7K followers, XXX engagements

"This year's rise in gold prices has come in two steps: (i) after the "Liberation Day" chaos in early April; (ii) after Chair Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech on August XX. The rise in gold prices is about a flight to safety from erratic policies and politicization of the Fed"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-04T15:09Z 351.6K followers, 17.6K engagements

"In the short period since Powell's Jackson Hole speech on August XX the rally in gold prices has gotten huge attention making it more and more of a speculative bubble. You can see that speculative bubble form in how gold has recently dragged bitcoin higher. Bubble territory"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-09T12:40Z 351.6K followers, 27.2K engagements

"Great piece on Argentina by @grobb2000 at @MarketWatch. Argentina stands alone in Latin America in - again and again - pegging its currency to the Dollar. The rest of the region floats their currencies which is what Argentina needs to do"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-23T12:17Z 351.7K followers, 33.9K engagements

"When US tariffs on China went up to XXX% in April markets treated this as a trade embargo with bad fallout for US activity pricing more Fed cuts. That's - again - what they did yesterday. Cuts through end-2026 went to XXX bps (black) from XXX bps. That's why the Dollar fell"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-11T13:11Z 351.6K followers, 14.8K engagements

"@fab365 Very true but that doesn't apply for China's Yuan which is heavily managed. Just think about how US tariffs on China have gone up XX percentage points but the Yuan against the Dollar is basically flat. You can only get that with a heavily manipulated currency"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T14:14Z 351.7K followers, 1586 engagements

"Few cities rival the natural beauty and romance of Frankfurt. But Stockholm comes close"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-11T18:06Z 351.7K followers, 14.5K engagements

"The US tariff on China is back to 150%. When this last happened in April China devalued the RMB which put devaluation pressure on EM FX. EM central banks sold Treasuries destabilizing the Treasury market. That caused the US to capitulate. Trump brought China tariffs back down"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-11T12:43Z 351.7K followers, 116.7K engagements

"The Fed's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole on August XX bought France time. It pulled down US longer-term yields which also helped pull down French yields. But the effect from that was always going to be fleeting especially given the unsustainable political equilibrium in France"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-06T12:29Z 351.6K followers, 9636 engagements

"The global debt crisis - like all crises - advances in fits and starts. Yesterday longer-term yields globally rose because of a sharp spike in Japanese yields on news of a fiscal dove as likely new prime minister. There's just too much debt everywhere"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-07T11:41Z 351.6K followers, 150K engagements

"Price action since Friday offers a good lens on where the Yen carry trade is concentrated. EM currencies that have been most hit are the Mexican Peso and Colombian Peso both of which have been known to harbor lots of carry trades. South Africa and Turkey are also getting hit"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2024-08-05T14:40Z 351.6K followers, 27.7K engagements

"There's two catalysts for the massive rally in gold prices this year: (i) the chaotic roll-out of reciprocal tariffs in early April; (ii) Chair Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech on Aug. XX. Markets are seeking a safe haven from policy chaos and fiat currency debasement"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T12:29Z 351.6K followers, 15.5K engagements

"@BrianTycangco @FortuneMagazine No. There's data on FDI remittances that shows a sharp drop in the profitability of foreign owned subsidiaries in China. You can pull up my posts on FDI to see that"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T15:12Z 351.5K followers, XXX engagements

"@SteveKerins There's a stock and a flow issue. There was huge immigration in the past which means the stock of immigrants is high. Ordinary Germans see that and the issue that come with this. Unfortunately that means deportations on top of properly securing the border"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T14:09Z 351.6K followers, 1463 engagements

"The recent rise in gold prices began after Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech Aug. XX. The Dollar has been stable since then so this isn't about a flight to safety out of USD but a flight out of all G10 currencies as fears about fiat debasement mount"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-01T10:51Z 351.6K followers, 60.8K engagements

"@ripplebrain The K in your twitter handle does sort of give you away a little bit"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T14:59Z 351.6K followers, 13.3K engagements

"@VandadGhiassi Depends. If China is allowed to divert lots of goods to the EU for example that transfers part of the US tariff shock to European producers. The rational role of any EU policy maker should be to block that flood of goods to allow European producers to ride this out"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T14:18Z 351.6K followers, XXX engagements

"The Fed's latest dovish pivot - telegraphed on August XX by Chair Powell at Jackson Hole - unleashed something and I don't think anyone really understands what that is. Gold is up a stunning XX% since that day a rally that's so big that it stands out on this XX year chart"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-29T23:16Z 351.6K followers, 46.5K engagements

"The AfD in the latest polls has overtaken the CDU as the most popular party in Germany. It feeds off the issue of immigration which the political center is unwilling to confront forcefully because it's such a contentious and loaded issue. There's no choice but to confront it"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-07T13:22Z 351.7K followers, 125.1K engagements

"This post got a lot of hate from what are clearly China-linked accounts on here. My main thought having seen a few of those tweets: "China is a super sophisticated and smart economy. Can it really not come up with better trolls than the contentless insults dished up here""
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T16:10Z 351.7K followers, 53.4K engagements

"@LibertarianWeb That is a very important point. If China devalues - or starts to - like in April 2025 that will put depreciation pressure on all EM currencies including Argentina. That will make the next X weeks ever harder for Argentina and the goal to reach Oct XX without devaluation"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-11T13:04Z 351.5K followers, 4273 engagements

"When Trump lifted US tariffs on China to XXX% in early April China retaliated by starting to devalue the Yuan. That completely destabilized global markets and - most importantly - the US Treasury market. Trump ended up backing down. Key question now is if China does this again"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-11T13:19Z 351.6K followers, 59K engagements

"Great article in @FortuneMagazine on the bias in markets to always see China as having the upper hand in the tariff stand-off with the US. Thats nonsense. China has one growth sector - exports - and that sector is getting hit massively by the US"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T12:09Z 351.7K followers, 39.4K engagements

"@DoggyDog1208 Any comment on the chart I posted which shows massive disruption to China's exports as a result of US tariffs That's obviously hitting the profitability of China's exporters hard"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T14:47Z 351.6K followers, 8972 engagements

"@MarkSimonHK @johnauthers @Bloomberg For sure the profitability of China's exporters is getting hit both by transshipment and by having to sell their goods in new markets which means price discounting. The question is how big that effect is. I'm putting together data on that"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-15T12:14Z 351.7K followers, 1466 engagements

"Three weeks ago I tweeted out the EU "Wall of Shame" showing huge transshipment of goods from across the EU to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. Germany's @FOCUS_Magazin allowed me to write about the "Wall of Shame" in this week's issue. Big thanks to @marcbrost"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-12T13:15Z 351.5K followers, 60.7K engagements

"@JohnnyH52869325 I hear that a lot but don't forget that the Chinese people went out on the streets in massive demonstrations against COVID lockdowns in late 2022. The gov't quickly capitulated to these protests. The hold of dictatorships on power is always much more tenuous than we think"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T12:05Z 351.7K followers, 9268 engagements

"The massive rally in gold prices (lhs) since Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August XX isn't about Dollar debasement. After all the Dollar is currently at a multi-month high (rhs). Instead the rally is about debasement fears across all advanced economy currencies"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-09T12:32Z 351.6K followers, 22.2K engagements

"Excellent piece by @nikogallogly in @nytimes on the massive rally in gold prices this year. The rally is a vote of no confidence in all fiat currencies as large spending needs and huge debt burdens everywhere clash with what markets are willing to fund"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T12:02Z 351.7K followers, 21.7K engagements

"Looks like Japan intervened to bring 30-year JGB yield back down after it spiked earlier this week on news its next prime minister is a fiscal dove. Yield caps like this aren't the answer for Japan. They just lead to uncontrolled Yen devaluation. We watched this movie in 2024"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-08T11:39Z 351.7K followers, 236K engagements

"Great @johnauthers piece in @Bloomberg on why China chose to escalate using rare earths. The consensus is that its exploiting its monopoly position but the deeper story is that its exporters are hurting badly so China has to go for broke"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-15T10:54Z 351.7K followers, 51.5K engagements

"@mariatad Spain in the summer of 2022 got a de facto no-strings-attached bailout from the ECB which intervened to cap its yields (along with Italy). The costs for Spain's fiscal dysfunction are borne by tax payers in fiscally frugal and functional countries like Germany and Netherlands"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T16:07Z 351.7K followers, 4388 engagements

"Gold prices are now up a stunning XX% since the Fed's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole on August XX. The Dollar is stable. This should be giving governments around the world serious pause. Markets fear global debasement in the face of post-COVID debt overhangs. This is all fiscal"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-06T12:33Z 351.6K followers, 38.7K engagements

"@KoberStanley The problem is that the current asylum system is broken and being taken advantage of by people who are economic not political refugees. That has to be changed. And like it or not the government needs to be much more aggressive on deportations"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T14:08Z 351.6K followers, 2378 engagements

"The US lost its "convenience yield" in a long-running trend over the past decade (lhs black line). But it was clawing some of that loss back ahead of April X (rhs black line) something that abruptly ended with "Liberation Day." Policy chaos has costs"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-02T11:17Z 351.5K followers, 28.5K engagements

"@baoshaoshan So you agree that China is aggressively discounting prices to offload its goods in Europe which in turn hurts the profitability of Chinese exporters. Glad we agree"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T19:34Z 351.7K followers, XXX engagements

"The EU and UK sanctioned a huge number of shadow fleet ships in 2025. Problem is that those ships largely ignore those sanctions and operate unimpeded. The shadow fleet (gray) is currently about half of Russian seaborne oil exports through the Baltic. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-13T15:50Z 351.7K followers, 41.5K engagements

"The EU and UK currently sanction XXX Russian ships not sanctioned by the US. Single biggest priority for Europe must be to convince Trump to sanction these vessels. If that means doing secondary tariffs on India and China so be it. Give Trump the win. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T12:15Z 351.5K followers, 12.9K engagements

"In May 2023 Erdogan devalued the day after winning Turkey's Presidential election. Pressure from capital flight was just too big. Looks like that's what Milei aims for in Argentina. Just make it to the election on October XX. Then devalue on the 27th"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-06T11:22Z 351.5K followers, 93.4K engagements

"@YanLian31677392 Would you care to make any substantive pushback Please feel free to do that"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T17:28Z 351.7K followers, 2024 engagements

"A lot is being made of the fact that China's exports are stable even though exports to the US are down sharply. But the only way it can export all this stuff to countries other than the US is to discount heavily. Huge negative shock to China's exporters"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-13T12:17Z 351.7K followers, 56.9K engagements

"June was a bad month for LatAm. Mexican Peso did worst at -XXX% followed by Colombian Peso (-6.9%) and Brazilian Real (-6.0%). In Brazil lots of blame is directed at Lula but that's just political hackery. Much (not all) of recent Real weakness is about LatAm getting clobbered"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2024-07-01T15:41Z 351.6K followers, 71.3K engagements

"Leaning on the Fed to bring down longer-term rates is deeply counterproductive. You just have to look at the Fed's target rate and 30-year Treasury yield to see that. 30-year has continued to drift up even as the Fed has been cutting. There's only downside to leaning on the Fed"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T12:50Z 351.7K followers, 23.5K engagements

"Rising gold prices are worrying. What we know: (i) this started after Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech so it's clearly about markets trying to hide from politicized central banks; (ii) the Dollar is stable so this isn't a flight out of USD but out of all fiat currencies"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-02T12:00Z 351.6K followers, 42.7K engagements

"Practically every meeting at this week's IMF/WB annual meetings starts with the same question: "Do you know why gold prices are going up so much" In today's post I lay out what we know (and don't know) about what's driving the crazy rise in gold prices"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-15T10:40Z 351.7K followers, 94.3K engagements

"Chinese goods that would've gone to the US prior to tariffs are flooding the EU. There's no such rise for Chinese exports to Japan so the EU holds special status as collateral damage due to tariffs. The EU should follow Trump's suggestion and put secondary tariffs on China"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T13:00Z 351.7K followers, 17.6K engagements

"@CarlosRamirezF What's happening with Mexican Peso is scary. The Peso has risen so much in real effective terms that it's causing a big deterioration in Mexico's underlying current account balance. Add to that what might happen if Trump wins in November and I think the Peso is very vulnerable"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2024-03-17T18:23Z 351.6K followers, 1.5M engagements

"Every day gold prices are making a new high. And every day Switzerland's convenience yield - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others when hedging foreign yields back into Swiss Francs - makes new lows. The world is running out of safe havens. Low debt is a good thing"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-07T16:17Z 351.5K followers, 30.7K engagements

"@TrueCrypto28 Two points: (i) since Bitcoin is down -XX% from its 2021 peak we can certainly say that Bitcoin WAS a bubble; (ii) whatever inflation is in US Dollars in the items you listed inflation is a a lot more in Bitcoin since BTC has devalued so much against USD. Thanks for playing"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2023-03-21T01:20Z 351.6K followers, 41.3K engagements

"If the China-US trade war escalates and China devalues there'll be lots of collateral damage: (i) US Treasury market will go "yippy" like in April; (ii) high-debt countries like Japan and France will suffer; (iii) $-pegs in Argentina and Turkey will blow"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T17:51Z 351.7K followers, 51.5K engagements

"The US Dollar has been essentially unchanged for X months now. This doesn't get talked about much as it doesn't fit the consensus narrative which is still very Dollar negative. But - as I have been saying for a long time - the Dollar fall is over"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-02T20:53Z 351.6K followers, 182.9K engagements

"Gold is up XX% (black) since Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole even as the Dollar is flat (blue). This is very unusual and says the rise in gold isn't about Dollar debasement but debasement in fiat currencies broadly. Sign of a global debt crisis"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-29T15:45Z 351.7K followers, 149.5K engagements

"@BalkanMilNews The same kind of "genius" narrative exists for Russia and Putin. It's the same nonsense that it is for China. US tariffs are exacting a huge toll on China which is why Beijing is playing hard ball with rare earths. And Putin is bleeding Russia in Ukraine"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-13T16:05Z 351.7K followers, 15.3K engagements

"We're in a global debt crisis. To see that don't look at 30-year yields which get pulled down by falling short-term yields. Look at 10y20y forward yields (red) that strip out short-term yields. Those are up everywhere and at alarming levels in places like Japan UK and France"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-11T21:05Z 351.6K followers, 129.4K engagements

"@ShangguanJiewen What you say is factually wrong and it isn't hard to show that China has nowhere near replaced the US as an export destination. Instead China is scrambling to sell its goods in many other countries at steep discounts. That's severely hurting China's export sector"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T14:52Z 351.6K followers, 3198 engagements

"@BrianTycangco @FortuneMagazine That's correct but it's only true because of massive trade diversion. Overall exports are stable because China has offset the drop in exports to the US by shipping all its goods to other countries most likely at huge discounts. So China's export sector is surely suffering"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T15:04Z 351.6K followers, 1171 engagements

"There's a narrative that China has the upper hand in its confrontation with the US. Nonsense. US tariffs are crushing China's export sector which must divert goods to all kinds of places suffering a huge hit to margins in the process. Hence China's hardball on rare earths"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-11T17:40Z 351.7K followers, 124.3K engagements

"The last big catalyst for Dollar downside was Jackson Hole and Powell's very dovish speech. But that bullet has now been fired so now it's up to the economy and whether we really go into recession. If we do the Dollar falls further but if there's no recession the Dollar rises"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-09-22T14:49Z 351.6K followers, 16.7K engagements

"I made a dunderhead mistake in my look at Q2 COFER data overlooking FX valuation effects. This mea culpa post fixes that. Dollar and Euro shares were flat in Q2 but there's interesting stories for GBP (down) & JPY (up). More in my regular post tomorrow"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-08T21:03Z 351.5K followers, 11.4K engagements

"China's export miracle to Nauru - the third smallest country in the world - continues. China's exports in Aug '25 were $XXX million which is 2300% above its exports to Nauru in Aug '24. US tariffs are pushing cheap goods all over the place. Tiny Nauru is one of those places"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-09T16:04Z 351.6K followers, 22.8K engagements

"@KhushinderMohan @FortuneMagazine The grasp of China's dictatorship on power is more tenuous than many think. Just think back to mass protests against COVID lockdowns in late 2022. The dictatorship folded very quickly in the face of those protests. China needs to be able to grow and for that it needs exports"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T12:16Z 351.6K followers, 5033 engagements

"@OrlovProvince Yes there's good data on Chinese export prices which have been falling sharply in recent months"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T14:16Z 351.6K followers, 1292 engagements

"Every once in a while the IMF/WB annual meetings move markets. Last time this happened was X years ago when the meetings ended the rise in 10-year Treasury yield. This week's meetings may be similar and end the seemingly inexorable rise in gold prices"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-16T10:54Z 351.7K followers, 14.5K engagements

"In the medium term there's only one direction the US trade war with China will take: it'll get worse. The EU is uniquely vulnerable to this. It's being flooded with cheap Chinese goods and its debt levels are a disaster. The EU is collateral damage"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T14:26Z 351.7K followers, 16.1K engagements

"There's all kinds of reasons people give why the Dollar has fallen this year. At the root of all that stuff is a simple macro story: tariffs were supposed to lift inflation and that just didn't happen as fast as people expected. Well it's happening now. Inflation is coming"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-07-31T20:10Z 351.7K followers, 13.5K engagements

"@HannoLustig There's far too little exposition and transparency on this. Instead this goes under the same "cone of silence" in the EU that has also been put over all the sanctions violations. A great paper and a great contribution to a more sustainable and fair Euro"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T16:52Z 351.6K followers, 1759 engagements

"French debt repayments aren't that bad in the year ahead. Instead the crisis in France is political: (i) the center is hanging on to power to keep the extreme right from governing; (ii) financial markets are running out of patience with the political paralysis that results"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-12T14:43Z 351.6K followers, 14.5K engagements

"Quick reminder that China is Putin's biggest enabler in his invasion of Ukraine. As US tariffs flood the world with cheap Chinese goods there is absolutely no gain in allowing these goods into your country. That applies above all to the EU. China is indirectly waging war on you"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T13:16Z 351.7K followers, 126K engagements

"Erdogan won the Presidential election in 2023 on May XX. On May XX a huge devaluation began. Milei must not instrumentalize FX this way in Argentina. It's obvious the Peso will devalue massively right after the Oct. XX election. Politicizing the exchange rate is unforgivable"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-09T14:10Z 351.6K followers, 54.8K engagements

"@OldridgeDominic We're living in a period of very high geopolitical risk. China has clearly sided with Russia in the invasion of Ukraine. Does it really make sense to allow a flood of Chinese imports that could shut down European industry and make Europe dependent on China"
X Link @robin_j_brooks 2025-10-14T13:10Z 351.6K followers, XXX engagements