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@robin_j_brooks "@Bullbull1231 Everyone knows this. Especially the folks at UniCredit which is why theyre trying to get their hands on Commerzbank"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 17:18:31 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"President Trump goes to the Fed and bickers in public with Chair Powell over the cost of Fed renovations while both are wearing hard hats. What does the Dollar do It goes up. Yesterday was above all a lesson in markets who look right through this stuff as political theater"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-25 11:49:17 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.6K engagements

"I'm doing a live stream discussion with @tashecon on Russia sanctions on Substack tomorrow morning at X am (ET). Tim knows Russia and Putin better than most. He was one of the only Russia analysts to loudly warn that invasion was coming before it happened. This is a must listen"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 21:10:21 UTC 344.2K followers, 15.6K engagements

"@jakluge @M_C_Klein This would be a good topic for a Substack live stream the three of us should do We can fold in China which is obviously faking all kinds of data as Brad Setser has so wonderfully pointed out"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 19:31:58 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@MarkManger @ConStelz Denmark is ahead of the rest of Europe on this issue and doesn't have right-wing extremist parties as a result. The political center in Denmark really deserve a lot of kudos on this"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 15:13:15 UTC 344.2K followers, XX engagements

"The images of ICE arrests are stomach-churning. But it's also important to see them in the context of the huge migration inflow of recent years (blue). Compared to that ICE arrests (black) and deportations (orange) are tiny. Much easier to open the border than to reverse that"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 12:34:53 UTC 344.2K followers, 32.5K engagements

"@ConStelz The rise of the AfD in Germany is the single biggest destabilizer in Europe. If the AfD becomes the largest party will Germany defend the Baltics or Poland if Russia attacks Probably no. Confronting immigration - as unpleasant as it is - is the only way to defang the AfD"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 13:43:42 UTC 344.2K followers, 1048 engagements

"Public debt is inextricably linked to Europes security. Germany can be generous with its support for Ukraine because it has low debt. Italy France and Spain cant give much because theyre over-indebted. Public debt is at the root of European insecurity"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-23 18:14:51 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.4K engagements

"@EvanFeigenbaum Lots of evidence of pretty rampant transshipments from China to the US via Vietnam. No such evidence for the Philippines. Vietnam's government made a very poor choice turning a blind eye to what very obviously would not be looked kindly upon"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 18:52:45 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@GL874407 It's amazing that there's Italians who want Euro break up instead of reforms to make the Euro sustainable. Euro exit for Italy means a massive devaluation and a substantial write-down of Italian sovereign debt. You want that instead of a modest tax on abundant private wealth"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-13 10:07:25 UTC 344.2K followers, 27.4K engagements

"I was part of an interesting debate yesterday with @M_C_Klein and @jakluge on whether to trust Russian data. Current account and tax collection data diverged recently which is at least odd. If China manipulates its current account as @Brad_Setser flags what's stopping Russia"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-23 14:37:13 UTC 344.2K followers, 8255 engagements

"If markets really worried about Fed independence you'd expect the short-term rate differential of the US vs the G10 (black) to fall as markets price more politically-driven rate cuts while longer-term differentials like 10y10y forward (orange) should rise. NO sign of that"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 22:36:09 UTC 344.2K followers, 9591 engagements

"When times are good and global risk appetite is healthy foreign investors pile into the US (blue) and US residents send money abroad (red). That's exactly what happened in May after "Liberation Day" turbulence in April. Markets have a short memory. They forgive and forget"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 16:13:03 UTC 344.2K followers, 7934 engagements

"@Brad_Setser Your work on this over the years is truly exceptional and such an inspiration Brad"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 17:59:23 UTC 344.2K followers, 1150 engagements

"@RobGandolfi Yes. There's two possible explanations for the rise in China's exports to non-US countries: (i) transshipments; and (ii) a hunt by Chinese exporters for new markets to substitute what would have gone to the US. It's probably some of both. I wrote about this in today's substack"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 14:01:39 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"China today released June trade data. Its exports to Nauru - the third smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco - are up 6000% from a year ago. A symptom of how powerfully US tariffs are hitting China pushing a flood of Chinese exports to everywhere else"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 20:21:39 UTC 344.2K followers, 796.8K engagements

"Markets have ignored the coming inflation impulse from tariffs. Inflation break-evens this year follow their usual path dictated by residual seasonality in the CPI rising in Q1 and then falling back (blue). Lots of room for markets to reprice which means upside for the Dollar"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 14:09:52 UTC 344.2K followers, 12.6K engagements

"Today's live stream with @tashecon on Russia sanctions. I asked Tim how - unlike most other Russia analysts - he saw the Ukraine invasion coming. He said: "Russia was filling its field hospitals with blood supplies. That was the tell." A true must listen"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-25 14:03:57 UTC 344.2K followers, 27.1K engagements

"@TheBizCyclist That's a bit besides the point I am making. If China wants to sell goods in new markets that it didn't previously serve it has to discount prices i.e. move down the demand curve. That's a hit to Chinese profitability. Same for transshipments"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 15:14:32 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@332118HM @CSIS Thanks for sending. This confuses enforcement with whether or not the G7 cap works or not. Of course it works but it was undermined by Greek shipping oligarchs who sold oil tankers to Putin and used the EU to set the cap much too high. Thats all fixable"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 17:30:49 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@ernietedeschi Someone had to check to US side of things and I'm so glad it was you Enjoy your weekend"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 01:38:34 UTC 344.2K followers, 20.4K engagements

"After foreign investors pulled money out of the US in April (after "Liberation Day" chaos) long-term portfolio inflows recorded their strongest showing EVER in May. There never was a threat to US reserve currency status and the Dollar is on a rising - NOT falling - trajectory"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 15:54:31 UTC 344.2K followers, 12.5K engagements

"The Dollar (black) has now been essentially unchanged for X months. Nothing changes market narratives like price action (or lack of price action). Gone is all the talk about reserve currency status and sentiment has shifted to neutral from very negative just a few months ago"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 20:14:28 UTC 344.2K followers, 14K engagements

"@EconstratPB It's true that immigration and the crack-down are important. But also good to keep things in perspective. ICE arrests in June were 30000. At the peak of the Biden immigration wave there were 300000 "encounters" on the Southern border in just one month (Dec. 2023)"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 14:08:50 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@TheBizCyclist Interesting theory Why would a shortage of Chinese goods in the rest of the world not bid up prices for Chinese goods and redistribute Chinese exports to cover that excess demand in ROW You're implicitly assuming some barrier or market imperfection"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 22:50:23 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"German manufacturing had been in crisis well before Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin's invasion only made this structural decline worse. Europe has an easy offset to this: a weaker currency. Euro needs to fall well below parity to offset the crisis in European manufacturing"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2024-01-14 11:35:38 UTC 344.2K followers, 118.8K engagements

"We all want fiscal responsibility. But that won't happen as long as central banks cap yields when they spike as the Fed did in 2020. You can cap yields but that inevitably incentivizes bad fiscal policy. Our fiscal mess is inextricably linked to the Fed"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 12:26:10 UTC 344.2K followers, 96.4K engagements

"When Trump first came into office - especially after ICE round-ups of migrants began - there was a lot of moral indignation in Europe and speculation that tourism to the US would collapse. There's no sign of that at all. European tourist arrivals into the US are rock-solid"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 18:38:06 UTC 344.2K followers, 18.4K engagements

"So it turns out that Bitcoin is just another bubble asset that blows up when the Fed gets serious about hiking interest rates. Zero store of value function. Zero diversification benefit. Zero yield. Sayonara Bitcoin"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2023-03-14 20:17:52 UTC 344.2K followers, 3.1M engagements

"The Colombian Peso is up XX% against the Dollar this year making it the strongest performer across EM. Much of Latin America - de facto - attained G10 status during COVID thanks to its central banks. Colombia's central bank is an absolute leader in this regard. @PaolaGuscoffIIF"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2023-11-19 15:30:38 UTC 344.2K followers, 60.9K engagements

"@CarlosRamirezF What's happening with Mexican Peso is scary. The Peso has risen so much in real effective terms that it's causing a big deterioration in Mexico's underlying current account balance. Add to that what might happen if Trump wins in November and I think the Peso is very vulnerable"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2024-03-17 18:23:51 UTC 344.2K followers, 1.5M engagements

"The Dollar is having a moment. It's up almost X% so far this month and there's an important lesson in that. Markets don't care about tariff headlines unless they're about China. Everyone else is just along for the ride. I wrote about this over the weekend"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-16 12:03:46 UTC 344.2K followers, 27.8K engagements

"The yield on Japanese 30-year gov't bonds is back to the highs it reached in May. Japan was always held up by the #MMT crowd as an example for how debt doesn't matter because governments can always cap yields. That view needs to be retired along with #MMT. Fiscal space is finite"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-14 12:48:21 UTC 344.2K followers, 55K engagements

"Mexico should not waste time on counterproductive retaliation to US tariffs. Mexico is much smaller than the US so retaliation: (a) isn't credible; and (b) risks making a bad situation worse. Better to let the Mexican Peso fall. It is still substantially overvalued after all"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-02-02 14:28:24 UTC 344.2K followers, 372K engagements

"The push for joint EU debt issuance by Spain and Italy validates that both countries are out of fiscal space. The way forward isn't for them to call for joint EU debt issuance. It's to tax abundant private wealth which lies significantly above Germany"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-14 10:50:34 UTC 344.2K followers, 101K engagements

"@joequant Here's what Google AI says about your claim. It does not back up what you are saying. Further yesterday you claimed the spike in Nauru's imports from China was due to diplomatic relations. Your story changes every day. It sounds to me like you're just spreading misinformation"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 15:38:09 UTC 344.2K followers, 80.3K engagements

"Yesterday's images of President Trump and Chair Powell bickering in hard hats were shocking. If ever there was a time when markets should've priced a Trump risk premium this was it. But they didn't. Markets see this stuff as political theater and move on"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-25 11:16:33 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.1K engagements

"@SantiagoAuFund These are just China goods trade data from China Customs. Nothing fancy about the data source. I am looking at the higher frequency drop in exports using 3m/3m growth rate based on seasonally adjusted data which perhaps is why the growth rates look strange to you"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 21:50:56 UTC 344.2K followers, 2898 engagements

"@borghi_claudio Not at all. The idea is to let markets set interest rates without central bank yield caps when bad shocks hit. If we'd done that a while back we wouldn't have the fiscal mess we have now. Same goes for Italy incidentally"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 01:52:00 UTC 344.2K followers, 1529 engagements

"Oil tankers are Putin's Achilles heel. This year's wave of US EU and UK sanctions on shadow fleet oil tankers hit Russia where it hurts. I'm endlessly proud of the work @econ_harris @LiamEcon and I do at @BrookingsInst to reverse the negative perception of sanctions. They work"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 14:50:09 UTC 344.2K followers, 50.8K engagements

"@WernerGuenner @ConStelz There's ways to deal with lower immigration. Germany and the rest of Europe need to raise retirement age which is only fair since life expectancy is up so much. Large-scale immigration especially the uncontrolled variety of recent years is unpopular. That's the hard reality"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 13:57:38 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"China's growth model is based on exports. US tariffs now threaten that growth model. China's response is to either transship goods to the US via 3rd countries or export to new markets. Either way that hits profits of China's exporters and is deflationary"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 12:14:01 UTC 344.2K followers, 15.9K engagements

"There's been a lot of Schadenfreude out of Europe about a supposed capital flows exodus from the US. Here's the thing. There is no exodus. May saw the biggest inflow in foreign portfolio flows into the US ever. Markets really don't think the US "exceptionalism" story is over"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 16:25:25 UTC 344.2K followers, 44.4K engagements

"It seems crazy but the Dollar has just had two really good days. It rallied all the way through the President and Chair Powell bickering at each other in hard hats and kept rallying today. Markets have looked right through the latest round of political theater in Washington"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-26 00:00:04 UTC 344.2K followers, 13K engagements

"Trump is leaning on the Fed to cut rates. Turkey's Erdogan did that in 2021 firing the hawkish CBRT Governor. What followed were rate cuts that sent Lira going into a devaluation spiral from which it has yet to recover. The Fed's independent for a reason"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-02 11:09:28 UTC 344.2K followers, 157.8K engagements

"@real_stevele @joequant That goes to my point. Unless there is a positive demand shock for Chinese goods in Europe which would shift out the ROW demand curve to the right prices of Chinese goods have to fall i.e. this is a move DOWN the demand curve as the supply curve shifts right"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 16:21:55 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"Just in case you think Japanese long-term yields can't possibly go any higher: Japan's 30-year yield (white) - even with the recent rise - is below Germany's (orange). German debt is XX% of GDP. Japan's is 240%. Japan's yields are still crazy low and nowhere near a market price"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 01:17:24 UTC 344.2K followers, 124.6K engagements

"Fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path in the US. That'll only change when the Fed stops capping yields in bad shocks. It did that with huge emergency QE during COVID (blue) which prevented a debt crisis. We can cap yields in bad shocks but the result is bad fiscal policy"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 12:46:54 UTC 344.2K followers, 11.7K engagements

"In a recent @BrookingsInst essay @econ_harris @LiamEcon and I argued that the EU has the power to go it alone on sanctions. That's exactly what today's 18th sanctions package does. Our analysis shows shadow fleet sanctions to be highly effective. Kudos"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 14:35:00 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.6K engagements

"@Hakimaane_ I don't feel any shame I'm afraid"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 20:16:22 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@HuaisiCen Sure but do you have any evidence of any such construction projects or are you just speculating"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 20:15:08 UTC 344.2K followers, 7214 engagements

"LatAm FX is a bloodbath since Mexico's election. It makes sense for Mexican Peso to weaken since it was substantially overvalued in the run-up to the election. But it makes no sense to me why there is contagion to the Colombian Peso or Brazilian Real. No overvaluation there"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2024-06-12 14:28:33 UTC 344.2K followers, 177.6K engagements

"@NGurushina Stronger Brazilian Real amid Dollar weakness"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-03 21:32:29 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"Markets price XXX bps in cuts from the Fed through the end of next year. That's way more easing than markets price for any other G10 central bank. Kind of bonkers when you consider that tariffs are inflationary for the US and deflationary for everyone else. Dollar bullish"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 14:01:54 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.3K engagements

"@NBKIII Sure. They can be sovereign outside the EU. If they want to be in the EU there should be a minimum code of conduct"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 17:28:05 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"If China's exports show a sharp rise to one country that could be for idiosyncratic reasons. But if China's exports rise to all kinds of places right after the imposition of big US tariffs that's a sign China is scrambling to find new export markets. That's what's happening"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 13:46:04 UTC 344.2K followers, 80.3K engagements

"As a side note Switzerland's national soccer team is largely Albanian but that's probably unrelated"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 13:06:56 UTC 344.2K followers, 9895 engagements

"The EU unilaterally lowers the price cap on Russian oil and sanctions XXX more ships. After such a long time of dithering this is positive. Lots of questions about enforcement and what was given to holdouts like Slovakia and Greece. But this is good"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 12:06:40 UTC 344.2K followers, 12.6K engagements

"China's monthly exports to Qatar just doubled. Ever since the US raised tariffs on China to XX% there's an explosion of transshipments to the US via all kinds of places. This is a sign how badly US tariffs are hurting China's export machine. China's exporters are desperate"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 16:37:14 UTC 344.2K followers, 42.8K engagements

"@vincenzosciarr3 Disagree. The only reason Putin is still fighting in Russia is because the EU allowed itself to be lobbied by Greek ship owners who undermined the G7 oil price cap by selling oil tankers to Putin for his shadow fleet. That's now getting fixed with sanctions. Putin is in trouble"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 16:14:27 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"The global trade war is ending. Today's global flash PMIs for Jul. '25 show the inflationary impulse from tariffs on the US is also ending. Upward pressure on output (blue line top left) & input (red line top left) prices is fading. No sign of supply chain disruptions anywhere"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 15:34:04 UTC 344.2K followers, 31K engagements

"@Brad_Setser Of course Japan's public sector can push down yields via various balance sheets including the BoJ. But that'll give you massive Yen depreciation as Japan's recent experience shows. The fix to rising yields isn't financial engineering. It's debt reduction. Herr Setser"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 01:55:21 UTC 344.2K followers, 3847 engagements

"De-escalation with China and the spate of recent trade deals including a rumored deal with the EU mean the bulk of the US trade deficit is now covered by trade deals. There's obviously lots of deals still to be negotiated but those don't really matter"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 10:38:45 UTC 344.2K followers, 24.4K engagements

"Only time Brazil's Real has gotten close to my $/BRL XXXX fair value is in Apr. '22 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine which spiked commodity prices lifting Brazil's terms of trade lots. The Real is again strengthening now but due to Dollar weakness. Much less powerful"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-06 14:47:26 UTC 344.2K followers, 68K engagements

"Starting this live stream with @tashecon in a few minutes. Tim called Russia's invasion of Ukraine ahead of time unlike the vast majority of Russia analysts out there. He'll give us his take on where we are now and what need to be done to shut Russia down"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-25 11:50:53 UTC 344.2K followers, 14.1K engagements

"This chart puts recent ICE detentions (black) in historical perspective against the migration inflow on the Southwest land border (blue) in recent years. ICE detentions have certainly picked up but they're tiny relative to the huge migrant inflow that happened in recent years"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 20:18:31 UTC 344.2K followers, 72.3K engagements

"Here's new export orders in today's "flash" release of the manufacturing PMIs for Jul '25. Remarkable thing is that tariffs seem to have done nothing to dent German new export orders (blue). The US also looks fine (red). France is very weak (black) but - well - that's France"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 14:30:37 UTC 344.2K followers, 8811 engagements

"Tariffs in 2018 didn't cause inflation as they were: (i) only on China; (ii) far smaller; (iii) Dollar rose to offset higher import prices. All that's totally different in 2025 and there's now signs that a major inflation shock is building in core goods"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-16 10:51:18 UTC 344.2K followers, 18.4K engagements

"@FerdndVII No. This housing wealth is the direct result of artificially low interest rates in Italy which in part reflect periodic ECB interventions to cap Italian government bond yields. To ask Italian households - the direct beneficiary of all this - to pay a bit is fair and appropriate"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 01:12:27 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@SamStromersten My conclusion from this chart is that it's very difficult to deport people. Just think about all the press that's being generated around ICE arrests v the huge migration inflow in previous years that generated almost none. That makes securing the border even more important"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 21:12:10 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"This is going to be a bad week for the Yen and long-term Japanese government bond yields. When you let debt rise out of control - with the help of your central bank - that just ends up putting you in a straightjacket with no good options. Japan is in a very difficult place"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 20:19:37 UTC 344.2K followers, 37.3K engagements

"@VKMacro Powell is extremely adept at handling this kind of thing. In 2019 he pivoted shortly after getting heavily criticized by Trump at the end of 2018 when S&P XXX was tanking. We got XX bps in cuts (the mid-cycle adjustment). He'll do something similar now to protect the Fed"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 18:24:15 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@Brad_Setser Only possible if there are massive transshipments to the US"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 22:47:24 UTC 344.2K followers, 2623 engagements

"@TIMGOLDFINCH Youre right that tariffs are a one time jump in the price level. The problem is that its hard to know in real time whether thats really whats going on especially since price hikes will be spread out over many months and be all over the place. That keeps the Fed on hold"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-16 12:49:34 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"The X best cuisines in the world X. German X. Japanese X. Korean X. Italian X. British"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2023-11-04 15:52:16 UTC 344.2K followers, 20.4M engagements

"@ernietedeschi @jerry_kerr84098 I'm not sure China's exporters are desperate enough to route things through Micronesia. This might simply be China dumping goods that otherwise would just sit around in warehouses. There's also some port development going on but I am really really NOT a Nauru expert"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 01:39:53 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"There's no reason whatsoever that Germany and Italy X years after the invasion of Ukraine should still have rampant transshipments to Russia. Poland and Lithuania shut this stuff down so it's not hard. You just have to want to. Germany and Italy don't"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-07 12:16:27 UTC 344.2K followers, 39.7K engagements

"Nauru is the 3rd smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco. But more importantly right now it's also the Kyrgyzstan of Micronesia. China's exports to Nauru are up 1400% in May from a year before. A sign how desperate China's exporters are to offload their stuff"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 20:50:41 UTC 344.2K followers, 34.9K engagements

"Chinese goods are flooding small out-of-the way places like Albania (lhs) and Switzerland (rhs). That's the huge impact US tariffs are having on Chinese exporters who face overflowing warehouses with goods that should have gone to the US and are now getting dumped elsewhere"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 13:06:11 UTC 344.2K followers, 69.9K engagements

"China needs to ease monetary policy to counter the deflationary impulse from tariffs. But it can't as the inevitable byproduct of easing is a weaker Yuan which China doesn't want. China is stuck as are rate differentials. The result: rising real rates and even worse deflation"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-06-29 14:06:47 UTC 344.2K followers, 62.2K engagements

"The world's top X most romantic cuisines right now X. German X. Japanese X. Korean X. Italian X. British"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 18:53:22 UTC 344.2K followers, 62.8K engagements

"US exceptionalism isn't over. It's the opposite. Foreign flows into Treasuries and US stocks roared back in May after small outflows in April. This suggests the fall in the Dollar happened on narrow liquidity. Markets still believe in US outperformance"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-23 12:51:04 UTC 344.2K followers, 39.7K engagements

"Macro XXX on China tariffs. If China doesn't transship goods to the US it must export them to the rest of the world (ROW)). Supply of goods to ROW goes up. Since ROW demand is unchanged prices must fall to generate demand. US tariffs are a deflationary shock for China and ROW"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 15:51:23 UTC 344.2K followers, 117K engagements

"@dennisw5 The fawning over China and its portrayal as an impervious global force is grating. It parallels how Russia was portrayed after its Ukraine invasion with many talking about "Fortress Russia" and genius Putin. Lots of Western business lobbying (which hates tariffs) at work here"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 16:00:31 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"The tariff inflation shock really got going in June. Core goods inflation (top left) was XX bps above where it normally is at this time of year (purple). The tariff hit is most pronounced for furniture (top right) & recreation (bottom left) but apparel is hit too (bottom right)"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 20:03:59 UTC 344.2K followers, 46.8K engagements

"Since the imposition of large US tariffs China's exports to Hungary are up 40%. This kind of thing is a symptom of all the pressure building up on Chinese exporters who are struggling with overflowing warehouses. A massive deflationary shock for everyone outside the US"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 20:48:23 UTC 344.2K followers, 66.7K engagements

"The Colombian Peso is - by a large margin - the best performing EM currency this year. Two reasons for that: (i) a highly credible central bank that hiked early and proactively; (ii) a rapidly shrinking current account deficit that is more than covered by FDI. @PaolaGuscoffIIF"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2023-12-02 15:56:05 UTC 344.2K followers, 16.7K engagements

"Not loving this piece by @AlexGabuev in the @FT. Best way for the EU to negotiate with China is to hit Russia as hard as possible. That means sanctioning all the shadow fleet to shut down Putins war machine. The rest will sort itself out"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-23 16:28:17 UTC 344.2K followers, 37.3K engagements

"@M_C_Klein @jakluge I'm with Matt on this. Russia discontinued a ton of data since the invasion and - as I've flagged multiple times - the current account data look very weird compared to the evolution of Urals oil price. I don't have a view on the inflation data per se but all data are propaganda"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 19:13:46 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"The Dollar is up X% in July. It's ignored mounting tariff noise and yesterday's headlines that the President discussed firing Powell with Republican lawmakers. There's a lesson here. USD is rising as tariffs start to push up inflation. That's what matters"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 11:06:10 UTC 344.2K followers, 16.4K engagements

"With friends like these who needs enemies Hungary (lhs) and Bulgaria (rhs) have massively ramped up imports from China. The EU needs to find a way to kick out "Trojan Horse" countries. If you can't behave properly your actions should have consequences. As opposed to nothing"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 16:49:32 UTC 344.2K followers, 44.5K engagements

"After Russia invaded Ukraine many Western analysts painted Russia as invincible (Fortress Russia). In the trade war now it's similar with China. Much like for Russia this stuff is nonsense and misinformation. China's export machine is really hurting"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 12:16:58 UTC 344.2K followers, 92.2K engagements

"My amazing and wonderful daughter - Annika - wrote her first Substack post together with @JonathanPingle on whether COVID increased inequality across US states. So massively proud:"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 01:39:26 UTC 344.2K followers, 14K engagements

"When people tell me the Dollar needs to fall because of Trump I wonder if they have any idea how FX markets trade. FX markets go long Turkish Lira a few weeks after Erdogan jails the opposition leader. FX markets don't penalize this kind of stuff. They just want to make money"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-10 11:57:04 UTC 344.2K followers, 43.6K engagements

"@igkolev That's certainly what's been going on with Kyrgyzstan where German exports to Kyrgyzstan never actually show up there and presumably go straight to Moscow. So Kyrgyzstan is just what gets written on the invoice. I don't know about Nauru but that's certainly possible"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 15:13:04 UTC 344.2K followers, 9876 engagements

"I'm doing a live stream discussion with @tashecon on Russia sanctions this Friday at X am (ET). No one knows Russia better than Tim. After all he came up with the term "Fortress Russia" which he's since replaced with "Rubble Russia." Substack link below"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 16:10:48 UTC 344.2K followers, 9576 engagements

"China is in a tough spot. It's exports to the US are down -XX% q/q in Jun '25. Exporters have only X options: (i) transship to the US; (ii) export goods to other countries at a discount to generate demand. Either way a big hit to profitability and a deflationary shock for China"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:33:10 UTC 344.2K followers, 184.2K engagements

"@jeuasommenulle Probably a reflection of the fact that banks in Frankfurt are a much more romantic take-over target so there's increased focus on that"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 19:07:38 UTC 344.2K followers, 1017 engagements

"Single biggest source of oil tankers for Putin's shadow fleet is Greece (blue). That's an opportunity for the EU to grow not sweep this under the rug. An investigation is needed to uncover how this happened. That will strengthen the EU not weaken it. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 11:09:27 UTC 344.2K followers, 96.6K engagements

"June was a bad month for LatAm. Mexican Peso did worst at -XXX% followed by Colombian Peso (-6.9%) and Brazilian Real (-6.0%). In Brazil lots of blame is directed at Lula but that's just political hackery. Much (not all) of recent Real weakness is about LatAm getting clobbered"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2024-07-01 15:41:57 UTC 344.2K followers, 71.3K engagements

"@kapshow Care to provide a bit of substance why you disagree"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:45:00 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@jakluge @M_C_Klein I mean China clearly manipulates data on all kinds of fronts. Just look at how oddly stable China's GDP became after 2012 (all the way through the 2015 capital flight episode). Russia is obviously different from China in many ways but I'd say China is the closest comparator"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 19:37:48 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"Ill be doing a live stream with @tashecon on Russia sanctions this Friday (Jul 25) at X am (ET). Tim coined the term Fortress Russia many years ago. Well see if he still thinks its still a fortress. Photo is from a summit in Uludag in Turkey in 2019"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 12:22:43 UTC 344.2K followers, 37.8K engagements

"@lucabattanta @DiTralle @GL874407 It clearly isn't taxed enough since Italian debt keeps going up in bad states of the world and never goes down in goods states of the world. Italian real estate wealth exists because Italy got low German interest rates when it joined the Euro. Time to pay back for that windfall"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-14 18:48:13 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@justwannasayth2 yes it's pretty crazy. Never in the history of Nauru has there ever been anything like this. Bonkers"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 20:45:53 UTC 344.2K followers, 19.5K engagements

"Banks in Frankfurt are somehow just way more romantic than banks pretty much anywhere else"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 16:55:44 UTC 344.2K followers, 12.5K engagements