@robin_j_brooks Robin Brooks

Robin Brooks posts on X about china, tariffs, russia, debt the most. They currently have 344,193 followers and 232 posts still getting attention that total 80,563 engagements in the last 24 hours.

Engagements: 80,563 #

• 1 Week 2,416,423 +49%
• 1 Month 7,312,498 +66%
• 6 Months 34,644,796 +41%
• 1 Year 59,324,978 -55%

Mentions: 114 #

• 1 Week 206 +24%
• 1 Month 401 +93%
• 6 Months 1,146 +18%
• 1 Year 2,008 +19%

Followers: 344,193 #

• 1 Week 344,156 +0.12%
• 1 Month 344,156 +0.47%
• 6 Months 344,156 +5%
• 1 Year 344,156 +8.80%

CreatorRank: 133,952 #

Social Influence #

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Social category influence countries 25% finance #2817 currencies 6.03% cryptocurrencies 0.43% stocks 0.43% technology brands 0.43% travel destinations 0.43%

Social topic influence china #775, tariffs #241, russia #1330, debt 4.74%, germany 3.02%, countries #929, all the 3.02%, euro 2.59%, ukraine #1122, fed 2.59%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joequant @sanctionsaml @jakluge @letsarmukr @brookingsinst @thebizcyclist @econharris @bradsetser @jtreble_deriv @charlieconors @syrian231 @brad_setser @vandadghiassi @mcklein @deancollins @ernietedeschi @frenswuimade @alexfernan51383 @kotterion @ditralle

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)

Top Social Posts #

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Top posts by engagements in the last 24 hours

"@Danjsalt One thing that's clear from this chart is that it's a lot easier to open the border and let lots of people in than it is to arrest and return them to their home countries. That's not a problem specific to the US. Germany and other European countries struggle with this too"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 20:59:16 UTC 344.1K followers, 751 engagements

"@jakluge @M_C_Klein This would be a good topic for a Substack live stream the three of us should do We can fold in China which is obviously faking all kinds of data as Brad Setser has so wonderfully pointed out"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 19:31:58 UTC 344.2K followers, 161 engagements

"@MarkManger @ConStelz Denmark is ahead of the rest of Europe on this issue and doesn't have right-wing extremist parties as a result. The political center in Denmark really deserve a lot of kudos on this"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 15:13:15 UTC 344.2K followers, 50 engagements

"@joequant This is precisely the kind of thing I am trying to clear up. Only thing that's clear is that supply of Chinese goods to the rest of the world (ROW) is up (blue) in an almost perfect offset to the fall in goods exports to the US (black). It's totally NOT clear if ROW demand is up"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 16:17:55 UTC 344.2K followers, 442 engagements

"The images of ICE arrests are stomach-churning. But it's also important to see them in the context of the huge migration inflow of recent years (blue). Compared to that ICE arrests (black) and deportations (orange) are tiny. Much easier to open the border than to reverse that"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 12:34:53 UTC 344.2K followers, 32.4K engagements

"The rise in Mexico's Peso is massive. Peso has reversed its 2015/6 fall that stemmed from falling oil prices due to US shale. So I get the Peso fall in 2015/6 and the negative shock that drove it. What is the positive shock that's now driving Peso strength I don't get that"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2023-09-02 14:46:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 475.3K engagements

"@ConStelz The rise of the AfD in Germany is the single biggest destabilizer in Europe. If the AfD becomes the largest party will Germany defend the Baltics or Poland if Russia attacks Probably no. Confronting immigration - as unpleasant as it is - is the only way to defang the AfD"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 13:43:42 UTC 344.2K followers, 1028 engagements

"@GerigJack Border crossings changed very substantially and I consider these data accurate. Part of the rise is a post-COVID catch-up but most is due to the Biden administration making this kind of immigration easier on the Southwest land border"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 20:26:08 UTC 344.1K followers, 661 engagements

"@TheBizCyclist I think this article was published some time ago. The numbers I show are more updated but also admittedly from a different data source"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:24:44 UTC 344.1K followers, 318 engagements

"@EvanFeigenbaum Lots of evidence of pretty rampant transshipments from China to the US via Vietnam. No such evidence for the Philippines. Vietnam's government made a very poor choice turning a blind eye to what very obviously would not be looked kindly upon"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 18:52:45 UTC 344.2K followers, 411 engagements

"I was part of an interesting debate yesterday with @M_C_Klein and @jakluge on whether to trust Russian data. Current account and tax collection data diverged recently which is at least odd. If China manipulates its current account as @Brad_Setser flags what's stopping Russia"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-23 14:37:13 UTC 344.2K followers, 6945 engagements

"When times are good and global risk appetite is healthy foreign investors pile into the US (blue) and US residents send money abroad (red). That's exactly what happened in May after "Liberation Day" turbulence in April. Markets have a short memory. They forgive and forget"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 16:13:03 UTC 344.2K followers, 7771 engagements

"@Brad_Setser Your work on this over the years is truly exceptional and such an inspiration Brad"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 17:59:23 UTC 344.2K followers, 1051 engagements

"This is the real 30-year Treasury yield. Two things stand out: (i) there is NO risk premium despite all the policy volatility since January and despite a continuation of very expansionary fiscal policy; (ii) real long-term yields aren't even very high currently versus history"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-10 12:19:21 UTC 344.2K followers, 21.4K engagements

"@joequant It's so nice of China the way it's giving a "gift" to so many countries around the world at exactly the same moment (in May 2025) right after US tariffs went up to 50% from 20% previously"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 00:58:34 UTC 344.1K followers, 448 engagements

"@nickstirkster Pizza was invented in New Haven CT so you can count Italian as American if you like"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:56:13 UTC 344.1K followers, 625 engagements

"China today released June trade data. Its exports to Nauru - the third smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco - are up 6000% from a year ago. A symptom of how powerfully US tariffs are hitting China pushing a flood of Chinese exports to everywhere else"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 20:21:39 UTC 344.2K followers, 792.4K engagements

"Markets have ignored the coming inflation impulse from tariffs. Inflation break-evens this year follow their usual path dictated by residual seasonality in the CPI rising in Q1 and then falling back (blue). Lots of room for markets to reprice which means upside for the Dollar"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 14:09:52 UTC 344.2K followers, 12.5K engagements

"@TheBizCyclist That's a bit besides the point I am making. If China wants to sell goods in new markets that it didn't previously serve it has to discount prices i.e. move down the demand curve. That's a hit to Chinese profitability. Same for transshipments"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 15:14:32 UTC 344.2K followers, 917 engagements

"The Dollar should have risen when tariffs were first imposed but - counter to all economic models - it fell. Now all kinds of tariffs are coming and there's an army of economist that's saying: "Hey why isn't the Dollar falling So weird" Economists are a rudderless bunch"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-16 13:34:18 UTC 344.1K followers, 38K engagements

"@ernietedeschi Someone had to check to US side of things and I'm so glad it was you Enjoy your weekend"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 01:38:34 UTC 344.2K followers, 20.3K engagements

"After foreign investors pulled money out of the US in April (after "Liberation Day" chaos) long-term portfolio inflows recorded their strongest showing EVER in May. There never was a threat to US reserve currency status and the Dollar is on a rising - NOT falling - trajectory"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 15:54:31 UTC 344.2K followers, 11.8K engagements

"@Danjsalt At this point uncontrolled migration is a European problem as Trump shut it down. That's also a comment on US vs European democracy. The Biden administration did something unpopular and lost. In contast the EU establishment hides behind a "Brandmauer" instead of fixing this"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 15:52:02 UTC 344.1K followers, 1498 engagements

"The Dollar (black) has now been essentially unchanged for 3 months. Nothing changes market narratives like price action (or lack of price action). Gone is all the talk about reserve currency status and sentiment has shifted to neutral from very negative just a few months ago"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 20:14:28 UTC 344.2K followers, 14K engagements

"Brazil is on track to become the Switzerland of Latin America. A huge trade surplus is emerging unlike any other country in the region. This is going to give Brazil external stability and a strong currency unlike the rest of Latin America. Brazil will be the region's anchor"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2023-05-25 17:57:56 UTC 344.2K followers, 3.2M engagements

"@Brad_Setser You raise lots of good points as always and I'm grateful for all of them. The key point is to overlay data (which are lagging) with economic intuition. We know that direct exports to the US are down a lot and that overall exports have held up. How can that be Discounting"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:59:34 UTC 344.1K followers, 629 engagements

"@EconstratPB It's true that immigration and the crack-down are important. But also good to keep things in perspective. ICE arrests in June were 30000. At the peak of the Biden immigration wave there were 300000 "encounters" on the Southern border in just one month (Dec. 2023)"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 14:08:50 UTC 344.2K followers, 617 engagements

"Germany can inflict huge damage on Russia's war economy today at no cost. It just has to shut down Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers in the Baltic. That will cause Urals oil price to fall sending Russia into deep crisis. No debt or fiscal stimulus needed. Just courage"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-03-08 13:37:39 UTC 344.2K followers, 618.4K engagements

"@TheBizCyclist Interesting theory Why would a shortage of Chinese goods in the rest of the world not bid up prices for Chinese goods and redistribute Chinese exports to cover that excess demand in ROW You're implicitly assuming some barrier or market imperfection"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 22:50:23 UTC 344.2K followers, 747 engagements

"@bezthesubverter Actually the EU has recently sanctioned a huge number of shadow fleet ships. Those sanctions are effective as they're forcing Russia to shift back to using Western oil tankers most of which are Greek-owned. That improves enforcement of the G7 cap. This is all very positive"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 14:29:48 UTC 344.1K followers, 145 engagements

"German manufacturing had been in crisis well before Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin's invasion only made this structural decline worse. Europe has an easy offset to this: a weaker currency. Euro needs to fall well below parity to offset the crisis in European manufacturing"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2024-01-14 11:35:38 UTC 344.2K followers, 118.8K engagements

"We all want fiscal responsibility. But that won't happen as long as central banks cap yields when they spike as the Fed did in 2020. You can cap yields but that inevitably incentivizes bad fiscal policy. Our fiscal mess is inextricably linked to the Fed"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 12:26:10 UTC 344.2K followers, 95.7K engagements

"@bartmeier23 @RonGepa When trade numbers spike as rapidly as this it's just stuff made in China that's showing up now because of US tariffs. There isn't time to build a factory in Hungary or Bulgaria and produce or assemble locally. This is either transshipments or an attempt to sell elsewhere"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 20:34:21 UTC 344.1K followers, 73 engagements

"When Trump first came into office - especially after ICE round-ups of migrants began - there was a lot of moral indignation in Europe and speculation that tourism to the US would collapse. There's no sign of that at all. European tourist arrivals into the US are rock-solid"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 18:38:06 UTC 344.2K followers, 18.3K engagements

"We've massively expanded our tracking of Russia's shadow fleet. Since Dec. 2021 Greek shipping oligarchs sold Putin 35% of his shadow fleet with other European owners another 14%. EU leaders looked the other way. How was this allowed to happen With @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-14 19:10:58 UTC 344.2K followers, 90.7K engagements

"So it turns out that Bitcoin is just another bubble asset that blows up when the Fed gets serious about hiking interest rates. Zero store of value function. Zero diversification benefit. Zero yield. Sayonara Bitcoin"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2023-03-14 20:17:52 UTC 344.2K followers, 3.1M engagements

"The Colombian Peso is up 20% against the Dollar this year making it the strongest performer across EM. Much of Latin America - de facto - attained G10 status during COVID thanks to its central banks. Colombia's central bank is an absolute leader in this regard. @PaolaGuscoffIIF"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2023-11-19 15:30:38 UTC 344.2K followers, 60.9K engagements

"@CarlosRamirezF What's happening with Mexican Peso is scary. The Peso has risen so much in real effective terms that it's causing a big deterioration in Mexico's underlying current account balance. Add to that what might happen if Trump wins in November and I think the Peso is very vulnerable"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2024-03-17 18:23:51 UTC 344.2K followers, 1.5M engagements

"@londoned Sorry my mistake. By British I actually mean Indian. I thought that was understood"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:46:53 UTC 344.1K followers, 983 engagements

"The yield on Japanese 30-year gov't bonds is back to the highs it reached in May. Japan was always held up by the #MMT crowd as an example for how debt doesn't matter because governments can always cap yields. That view needs to be retired along with #MMT. Fiscal space is finite"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-14 12:48:21 UTC 344.2K followers, 55K engagements

"What a time to be alive. Germany's 30-year yield at 3.2% is now above Japan's at 3.0% even though German gov't debt is 65% of GDP vs Japan's 240%. Underlying culprit is the ECB which - via past interventions - pushes down Italian and Spanish yields and pushes up German ones"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-12 12:38:30 UTC 344.2K followers, 26.4K engagements

"@joequant Here's what Google AI says about your claim. It does not back up what you are saying. Further yesterday you claimed the spike in Nauru's imports from China was due to diplomatic relations. Your story changes every day. It sounds to me like you're just spreading misinformation"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 15:38:09 UTC 344.2K followers, 79.5K engagements

"@SantiagoAuFund These are just China goods trade data from China Customs. Nothing fancy about the data source. I am looking at the higher frequency drop in exports using 3m/3m growth rate based on seasonally adjusted data which perhaps is why the growth rates look strange to you"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 21:50:56 UTC 344.1K followers, 2871 engagements

"@VKMacro Here's the data on China's trade with the US and with key 14 other trading partners. You can see the collapse in its trade surplus with the US and a sharp spike in its trade surplus with others. Demand doesn't spike like that. It's all about Chinese excess supply"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 18:22:42 UTC 344.2K followers, 415 engagements

"@GOLDMEMBER76501 There is no other way. There was an opportunity to exit Greece a decade ago which would have ended profligate fiscal policy in the periphery in one move. That kind of exit has to happen if rules are meant to mean something. Same at the EU level. There is no other way sadly"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 17:27:11 UTC 344.1K followers, 536 engagements

"@HannoLustig Exactly. Like it or not central bank interventions at times of crisis have a cost which is that they reduce the urgency of reigning in big budget deficits. You can cap yields when things are bad but then don't be surprised if deficits run out of control when times are good"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 18:12:09 UTC 344.2K followers, 1096 engagements

"Mexico's Peso has fallen after this weekend's elections but the sell-off is small versus how much the Peso has risen since COVID. Peso strength is a bubble fed by a narrative of friend-shoring and high interest rates. It's in Mexico's best interest for that bubble to unwind"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2024-06-04 13:34:53 UTC 344.2K followers, 145.3K engagements

"@gonglei89 Any comment on the substance of what I said or on the obvious lack of evidence that there were actually purchases of fishing boats to explain the rise in Chinese exports"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 20:14:44 UTC 344.1K followers, 2557 engagements

"@borghi_claudio Not at all. The idea is to let markets set interest rates without central bank yield caps when bad shocks hit. If we'd done that a while back we wouldn't have the fiscal mess we have now. Same goes for Italy incidentally"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 01:52:00 UTC 344.1K followers, 1510 engagements

"@GL874407 German debt is very low so - in a monetary union that isn't a fiscal union - debt and fiscal policy haven't been constraints the way they are elsewhere. But AfD is structurally against the Euro like most populist parties in the North so the end of this book isn't written yet"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-14 14:32:18 UTC 344.1K followers, 890 engagements

"Oil tankers are Putin's Achilles heel. This year's wave of US EU and UK sanctions on shadow fleet oil tankers hit Russia where it hurts. I'm endlessly proud of the work @econ_harris @LiamEcon and I do at @BrookingsInst to reverse the negative perception of sanctions. They work"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 14:50:09 UTC 344.2K followers, 50.7K engagements

"@S1269mr I actually make my own charts believe it or not"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 18:44:02 UTC 344.1K followers, 334 engagements

"@WernerGuenner @ConStelz There's ways to deal with lower immigration. Germany and the rest of Europe need to raise retirement age which is only fair since life expectancy is up so much. Large-scale immigration especially the uncontrolled variety of recent years is unpopular. That's the hard reality"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 13:57:38 UTC 344.2K followers, 123 engagements

"China's growth model is based on exports. US tariffs now threaten that growth model. China's response is to either transship goods to the US via 3rd countries or export to new markets. Either way that hits profits of China's exporters and is deflationary"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 12:14:01 UTC 344.2K followers, 15.5K engagements

"@Syrian231 I'm not claiming these are transshipments. China is also redirecting a lot of its exports to new markets. There's also a possibility that this reflects the purchase of a new shipping fleet but I have no definitive evidence on that with different AIs giving different answers"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 22:42:34 UTC 344.1K followers, 121 engagements

"There's been a lot of Schadenfreude out of Europe about a supposed capital flows exodus from the US. Here's the thing. There is no exodus. May saw the biggest inflow in foreign portfolio flows into the US ever. Markets really don't think the US "exceptionalism" story is over"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 16:25:25 UTC 344.2K followers, 43K engagements

"Trump is leaning on the Fed to cut rates. Turkey's Erdogan did that in 2021 firing the hawkish CBRT Governor. What followed were rate cuts that sent Lira going into a devaluation spiral from which it has yet to recover. The Fed's independent for a reason"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-02 11:09:28 UTC 344.2K followers, 157.7K engagements

"Only one question matters now: "Why has China not devalued" US tariffs have reached blistering levels and are a big negative shock to China. The only reason I can think of is that China is scared of Trump. Devaluation will escalate the trade war further. China is afraid of that"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-04-10 19:22:10 UTC 344.2K followers, 84.8K engagements

"@real_stevele @joequant That goes to my point. Unless there is a positive demand shock for Chinese goods in Europe which would shift out the ROW demand curve to the right prices of Chinese goods have to fall i.e. this is a move DOWN the demand curve as the supply curve shifts right"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 16:21:55 UTC 344.1K followers, 114 engagements

"Just in case you think Japanese long-term yields can't possibly go any higher: Japan's 30-year yield (white) - even with the recent rise - is below Germany's (orange). German debt is 65% of GDP. Japan's is 240%. Japan's yields are still crazy low and nowhere near a market price"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 01:17:24 UTC 344.2K followers, 124.5K engagements

"Fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path in the US. That'll only change when the Fed stops capping yields in bad shocks. It did that with huge emergency QE during COVID (blue) which prevented a debt crisis. We can cap yields in bad shocks but the result is bad fiscal policy"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 12:46:54 UTC 344.2K followers, 11.7K engagements

"In a recent @BrookingsInst essay @econ_harris @LiamEcon and I argued that the EU has the power to go it alone on sanctions. That's exactly what today's 18th sanctions package does. Our analysis shows shadow fleet sanctions to be highly effective. Kudos"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 14:35:00 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.6K engagements

"@MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser Right which is why I'm making the point that it will depress margins if it's happening (it surely is on some scale). The alternative is to try to export to new markets which also requires discounting to generate demand where previously there wasn't any"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 20:08:31 UTC 344.2K followers, 2189 engagements

"@Hakimaane_ I don't feel any shame I'm afraid"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 20:16:22 UTC 344.1K followers, 741 engagements

"@HuaisiCen Sure but do you have any evidence of any such construction projects or are you just speculating"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 20:15:08 UTC 344.2K followers, 7158 engagements

"LatAm FX is a bloodbath since Mexico's election. It makes sense for Mexican Peso to weaken since it was substantially overvalued in the run-up to the election. But it makes no sense to me why there is contagion to the Colombian Peso or Brazilian Real. No overvaluation there"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2024-06-12 14:28:33 UTC 344.1K followers, 177.6K engagements

"Markets price 125 bps in cuts from the Fed through the end of next year. That's way more easing than markets price for any other G10 central bank. Kind of bonkers when you consider that tariffs are inflationary for the US and deflationary for everyone else. Dollar bullish"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 14:01:54 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.2K engagements

"If China's exports show a sharp rise to one country that could be for idiosyncratic reasons. But if China's exports rise to all kinds of places right after the imposition of big US tariffs that's a sign China is scrambling to find new export markets. That's what's happening"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 13:46:04 UTC 344.2K followers, 74.1K engagements

"As a side note Switzerland's national soccer team is largely Albanian but that's probably unrelated"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 13:06:56 UTC 344.1K followers, 9855 engagements

"The EU unilaterally lowers the price cap on Russian oil and sanctions 105 more ships. After such a long time of dithering this is positive. Lots of questions about enforcement and what was given to holdouts like Slovakia and Greece. But this is good"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 12:06:40 UTC 344.1K followers, 12.5K engagements

"China's monthly exports to Qatar just doubled. Ever since the US raised tariffs on China to 50% there's an explosion of transshipments to the US via all kinds of places. This is a sign how badly US tariffs are hurting China's export machine. China's exporters are desperate"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 16:37:14 UTC 344.2K followers, 42.6K engagements

"@vincenzosciarr3 Disagree. The only reason Putin is still fighting in Russia is because the EU allowed itself to be lobbied by Greek ship owners who undermined the G7 oil price cap by selling oil tankers to Putin for his shadow fleet. That's now getting fixed with sanctions. Putin is in trouble"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 16:14:27 UTC 344.2K followers, 670 engagements

"China's direct exports to the US (red) are down -16% y/y in June 2025 but overall exports (black) are up 6%. How can that be China's exporters don't have the capacity to warehouse all the goods they produce. So exports have to leave for new markets or - indirectly - for the US"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 16:14:41 UTC 344.2K followers, 59.2K engagements

"Only time Brazil's Real has gotten close to my $/BRL 4.50 fair value is in Apr. '22 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine which spiked commodity prices lifting Brazil's terms of trade lots. The Real is again strengthening now but due to Dollar weakness. Much less powerful"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-06 14:47:26 UTC 344.2K followers, 67.9K engagements

"Trump's secondary tariffs vs shadow fleet sanctions: (i) sanctions shut down shadow fleet ships tariffs do not; (ii) easy to scale up sanctions tariffs are much blunter; (iii) a lower G7 cap complements sanctions no such complementarity for tariffs. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 13:01:38 UTC 344.1K followers, 52K engagements

"Germany this week deported 81 Afghans with criminal records. Last time this happened was under the previous government which did one deportation in Aug '24 ahead of elections in East Germany. Unpleasant but necessary if the rise of AfD is to be stopped"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 12:47:22 UTC 344.1K followers, 17.8K engagements

"This chart puts recent ICE detentions (black) in historical perspective against the migration inflow on the Southwest land border (blue) in recent years. ICE detentions have certainly picked up but they're tiny relative to the huge migrant inflow that happened in recent years"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 20:18:31 UTC 344.2K followers, 72.1K engagements

"The Dollar has been rising continuously in July. That doesn't get talked about much because at this point there's basically only Dollar bears out there. It's also notable that the Dollar is up slightly today even with all the tariff headlines. Should give Dollar bears pause"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-14 13:54:18 UTC 344.1K followers, 36.2K engagements

"Tariffs in 2018 didn't cause inflation as they were: (i) only on China; (ii) far smaller; (iii) Dollar rose to offset higher import prices. All that's totally different in 2025 and there's now signs that a major inflation shock is building in core goods"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-16 10:51:18 UTC 344.2K followers, 18.4K engagements

"Draghi's "whatever it takes" mangled 2 distinct things: (i) whether the Euro is irreversible; (ii) whether sovereign debt defaults should and need to happen in the Euro. By ruling out the latter he has endangered the former. Total lack of fiscal discipline will explode the Euro"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-13 09:52:12 UTC 344.2K followers, 96.3K engagements

"@SamStromersten My conclusion from this chart is that it's very difficult to deport people. Just think about all the press that's being generated around ICE arrests v the huge migration inflow in previous years that generated almost none. That makes securing the border even more important"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 21:12:10 UTC 344.1K followers, 466 engagements

"@justwannasayth2 That seems like an unnecessarily anti-Canadian comment"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 18:45:00 UTC 344.1K followers, 442 engagements

"This is going to be a bad week for the Yen and long-term Japanese government bond yields. When you let debt rise out of control - with the help of your central bank - that just ends up putting you in a straightjacket with no good options. Japan is in a very difficult place"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 20:19:37 UTC 344.2K followers, 37K engagements

"If the ECB were prohibited from buying sovereign debt Italian and Spanish yields would soar and German yields would go negative. We know this from Lagarde's faux pas in Mar. 2020. ECB activity in bond markets redistributes wealth from fiscally sound sovereigns to unsound ones"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-13 10:27:41 UTC 344.1K followers, 51.3K engagements

"@DavidBeckworth @Macro_Musings Huge congratulations. You do an amazing public service with these. They're all excellent and your guests are top notch"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 13:24:12 UTC 344.2K followers, 897 engagements

"The 5 best cuisines in the world 1. German 2. Japanese 3. Korean 4. Italian 5. British"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2023-11-04 15:52:16 UTC 344.2K followers, 20.4M engagements

"@ernietedeschi @jerry_kerr84098 I'm not sure China's exporters are desperate enough to route things through Micronesia. This might simply be China dumping goods that otherwise would just sit around in warehouses. There's also some port development going on but I am really really NOT a Nauru expert"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 01:39:53 UTC 344.1K followers, 288 engagements

"Dollar longs according to the CoT report from the CFTC aren't actually all that big at the moment. Maybe a 6/10. What's interesting is that Euro longs against the Dollar remain quite modest. Maybe a 5/10. All that EU chest-beating we have to listen to isn't impressing anyone"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 15:16:45 UTC 344.1K followers, 26.1K engagements

"There's no reason whatsoever that Germany and Italy 3 years after the invasion of Ukraine should still have rampant transshipments to Russia. Poland and Lithuania shut this stuff down so it's not hard. You just have to want to. Germany and Italy don't"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-07 12:16:27 UTC 344.2K followers, 39.7K engagements

"@Brad_Setser Selling goods at home faces the same challenge as trying to open up new non-US markets abroad. You're basically trying to sell goods that were destined for another market (the US) in a new market. You have to discount prices to do that. So domestic sales are deflationary too"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:51:10 UTC 344.2K followers, 2312 engagements

"Euro makes new all-time highs every day in trade weighted terms. Many countries - above all China - peg to the Dollar. That supercharges the rise in Euro vs USD (white) taking Euro to stratospheric levels in trade-weighted terms (orange). Deflation is coming for the Euro zone"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-08 19:58:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 102.4K engagements

"Nauru is the 3rd smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco. But more importantly right now it's also the Kyrgyzstan of Micronesia. China's exports to Nauru are up 1400% in May from a year before. A sign how desperate China's exporters are to offload their stuff"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 20:50:41 UTC 344.2K followers, 34.8K engagements

"Chinese goods are flooding small out-of-the way places like Albania (lhs) and Switzerland (rhs). That's the huge impact US tariffs are having on Chinese exporters who face overflowing warehouses with goods that should have gone to the US and are now getting dumped elsewhere"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 13:06:11 UTC 344.2K followers, 69.6K engagements

"China needs to ease monetary policy to counter the deflationary impulse from tariffs. But it can't as the inevitable byproduct of easing is a weaker Yuan which China doesn't want. China is stuck as are rate differentials. The result: rising real rates and even worse deflation"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-06-29 14:06:47 UTC 344.2K followers, 62.2K engagements

"The idea that EU countries are shipping goods to Russia while Ukraine burns is terrifying and appalling but this is exactly what's happening and it's been going on for over three years. In the EU short-term greed overrides what's right. Today's substack:"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-05 12:42:28 UTC 344.1K followers, 120.3K engagements

"The world's top 5 most romantic cuisines right now 1. German 2. Japanese 3. Korean 4. Italian 5. British"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 18:53:22 UTC 344.2K followers, 62.2K engagements

"@tolstoybb Luxembourg is incredibly romantic as is its cooking"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:51:47 UTC 344.1K followers, 404 engagements

"Japan's 30-year JGB yield (white) is up sharply but it's still below Germany (orange). Many years of BoJ yield curve control and QE mean Japanese yields aren't a market price but are artificially low. After all Japan's debt is 240% GDP vs Germany's 65%"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 10:54:52 UTC 344.1K followers, 18.8K engagements

"US exceptionalism isn't over. It's the opposite. Foreign flows into Treasuries and US stocks roared back in May after small outflows in April. This suggests the fall in the Dollar happened on narrow liquidity. Markets still believe in US outperformance"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-23 12:51:04 UTC 344.2K followers, 11K engagements

"Images of ICE arrests and deportation are hard to watch. Today's Substack puts the numbers for these things into context against the previous huge migration inflow. We urgently need reform of asylum law to better balance needs of citizens vs non-citizens"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 11:48:21 UTC 344.2K followers, 9647 engagements

"Macro 101 on China tariffs. If China doesn't transship goods to the US it must export them to the rest of the world (ROW)). Supply of goods to ROW goes up. Since ROW demand is unchanged prices must fall to generate demand. US tariffs are a deflationary shock for China and ROW"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 15:51:23 UTC 344.2K followers, 115.6K engagements

"@dennisw5 The fawning over China and its portrayal as an impervious global force is grating. It parallels how Russia was portrayed after its Ukraine invasion with many talking about "Fortress Russia" and genius Putin. Lots of Western business lobbying (which hates tariffs) at work here"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 16:00:31 UTC 344.2K followers, 287 engagements

"The tariff inflation shock really got going in June. Core goods inflation (top left) was 80 bps above where it normally is at this time of year (purple). The tariff hit is most pronounced for furniture (top right) & recreation (bottom left) but apparel is hit too (bottom right)"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 20:03:59 UTC 344.2K followers, 46.7K engagements

"Since the imposition of large US tariffs China's exports to Hungary are up 40%. This kind of thing is a symptom of all the pressure building up on Chinese exporters who are struggling with overflowing warehouses. A massive deflationary shock for everyone outside the US"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 20:48:23 UTC 344.2K followers, 66.6K engagements

"@M_C_Klein @jakluge I'm with Matt on this. Russia discontinued a ton of data since the invasion and - as I've flagged multiple times - the current account data look very weird compared to the evolution of Urals oil price. I don't have a view on the inflation data per se but all data are propaganda"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 19:13:46 UTC 344.2K followers, 836 engagements

"Markets have been remarkably orderly given what's going on but we're starting to see disjointed moves now. The fall in commodity prices and growing risk of China devaluation cratered Australian Dollar (lower middle). A growing EM sell-off weighs on Mexican Peso (lower right)"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-04-07 14:53:38 UTC 344.2K followers, 21.1K engagements

"The Dollar is up 2% in July. It's ignored mounting tariff noise and yesterday's headlines that the President discussed firing Powell with Republican lawmakers. There's a lesson here. USD is rising as tariffs start to push up inflation. That's what matters"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 11:06:10 UTC 344.1K followers, 16.3K engagements

"With friends like these who needs enemies Hungary (lhs) and Bulgaria (rhs) have massively ramped up imports from China. The EU needs to find a way to kick out "Trojan Horse" countries. If you can't behave properly your actions should have consequences. As opposed to nothing"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 16:49:32 UTC 344.2K followers, 44.4K engagements

"@FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher I find it somewhat remarkable that - after massive transshipments from the EU to Russia via all kinds of places (which built to huge levels in an instant) - there's still anyone claiming China isn't transshipping on a material scale. I mean come on"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 22:34:06 UTC 344.2K followers, 1224 engagements

"After Russia invaded Ukraine many Western analysts painted Russia as invincible (Fortress Russia). In the trade war now it's similar with China. Much like for Russia this stuff is nonsense and misinformation. China's export machine is really hurting"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 12:16:58 UTC 344.2K followers, 91.8K engagements

"When people tell me the Dollar needs to fall because of Trump I wonder if they have any idea how FX markets trade. FX markets go long Turkish Lira a few weeks after Erdogan jails the opposition leader. FX markets don't penalize this kind of stuff. They just want to make money"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-10 11:57:04 UTC 344.2K followers, 43.5K engagements

"My amazing and wonderful daughter - Annika - wrote her first Substack post together with @JonathanPingle on whether COVID increased inequality across US states. So massively proud:"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 01:39:26 UTC 344.2K followers, 14K engagements

"@igkolev That's certainly what's been going on with Kyrgyzstan where German exports to Kyrgyzstan never actually show up there and presumably go straight to Moscow. So Kyrgyzstan is just what gets written on the invoice. I don't know about Nauru but that's certainly possible"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 15:13:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 9825 engagements

"I'm doing a live stream discussion with @tashecon on Russia sanctions this Friday at 8 am (ET). No one knows Russia better than Tim. After all he came up with the term "Fortress Russia" which he's since replaced with "Rubble Russia." Substack link below"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 16:10:48 UTC 344.2K followers, 9507 engagements

"@pe1rdw I hear this argument a lot but I'm not sure I believe it. Think back to the anti-government protests in late 2022 against COVID lockdowns. The government backed down even though there are no elections. Maybe this is different because it's a confrontation with the US but still"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 13:37:19 UTC 344.2K followers, 340 engagements

"China is in a tough spot. It's exports to the US are down -24% q/q in Jun '25. Exporters have only 2 options: (i) transship to the US; (ii) export goods to other countries at a discount to generate demand. Either way a big hit to profitability and a deflationary shock for China"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:33:10 UTC 344.2K followers, 183.1K engagements

"@LetsArmUKR Absolutely. The first line of defense has to be strict border enforcement because it's very difficult to deport migrants even though with criminal records once they're inside the country. The Trump administration is very focused on deportations but their numbers are small"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 11:58:24 UTC 344.2K followers, 99 engagements

"@jeuasommenulle Probably a reflection of the fact that banks in Frankfurt are a much more romantic take-over target so there's increased focus on that"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 19:07:38 UTC 344.2K followers, 975 engagements

"June was a bad month for LatAm. Mexican Peso did worst at -7.6% followed by Colombian Peso (-6.9%) and Brazilian Real (-6.0%). In Brazil lots of blame is directed at Lula but that's just political hackery. Much (not all) of recent Real weakness is about LatAm getting clobbered"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2024-07-01 15:41:57 UTC 344.2K followers, 71.3K engagements

"Single biggest source of oil tankers for Putin's shadow fleet is Greece (blue). That's an opportunity for the EU to grow not sweep this under the rug. An investigation is needed to uncover how this happened. That will strengthen the EU not weaken it. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 11:09:27 UTC 344.2K followers, 96.3K engagements

"@kapshow Care to provide a bit of substance why you disagree"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:45:00 UTC 344.2K followers, 448 engagements

"Ill be doing a live stream with @tashecon on Russia sanctions this Friday (Jul 25) at 8 am (ET). Tim coined the term Fortress Russia many years ago. Well see if he still thinks its still a fortress. Photo is from a summit in Uludag in Turkey in 2019"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 12:22:43 UTC 344.2K followers, 7902 engagements

"@jakluge @M_C_Klein I mean China clearly manipulates data on all kinds of fronts. Just look at how oddly stable China's GDP became after 2012 (all the way through the 2015 capital flight episode). Russia is obviously different from China in many ways but I'd say China is the closest comparator"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 19:37:48 UTC 344.2K followers, 202 engagements

"@lucabattanta @DiTralle @GL874407 It clearly isn't taxed enough since Italian debt keeps going up in bad states of the world and never goes down in goods states of the world. Italian real estate wealth exists because Italy got low German interest rates when it joined the Euro. Time to pay back for that windfall"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-14 18:48:13 UTC 344.2K followers, 629 engagements

"@justwannasayth2 yes it's pretty crazy. Never in the history of Nauru has there ever been anything like this. Bonkers"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 20:45:53 UTC 344.2K followers, 19.5K engagements

"Banks in Frankfurt are somehow just way more romantic than banks pretty much anywhere else"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 16:55:44 UTC 344.2K followers, 12.5K engagements