@robin_j_brooks Robin Brooks

The global economy is experiencing a "debasement trade" where investors are seeking safe-haven assets due to concerns over high debt levels and policy chaos. This trend is driving up the value of certain currencies, such as the Swedish krona, and assets like gold, although the recent precious metals rally has paused. The trade is also characterized by a shift away from fiat currencies and towards safe-haven assets, with some experts warning of a potential crisis in countries with high debt levels.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance countries currencies automotive brands travel destinations us election social networks cryptocurrencies technology brands stocks

Social topic influence debt #378, euro #617, russia #1090, china #1528, italy #754, inflation #1443, ukraine #852, germany #508, countries #976, tariffs #175

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bradsetser @brookingsinst @econharris @adamtooze @heimbergecon @ugrasulkuiif @sandertordoir @hannolustig @ft @borghiclaudio @alexprivitera1 @lugaricano @tashecon @noahpinion @mcastellano44 @peterorszag @tayfunstudios @jakluge @brookingsglobal @alea

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"The COVID-19 sell-off in EM (horizontal) is far more severe than the [----] sudden stop which was mostly confined to Argentina & Turkey. Given how global this shock is important for EM to use FX reserves sparingly. This depreciation pressure is too big to "lean against the wind.""
X Link 2020-04-22T15:53Z 355.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@Jbond069 @mcastellano44 @IifPaola Yes the country is fully dollarized but that doesn't mean it doesn't have a real effective exchange rate that can be misaligned. In effect the "Dollar-peg" means the "shadow" exchange rate has been dragged up sharply by the rising Dollar. That's what we are flagging"
X Link 2020-07-20T15:19Z 360.7K followers, [--] engagements

"@EMMacroGeek Yes you're right. CLP was somewhat undervalued but so was Brazilian Real at least in our valuation framework. So if you take our valuation signal as "true" admittedly a big "if" then it's GDP that is a key differentiator"
X Link 2020-09-29T15:19Z 363.1K followers, [--] engagements

"The share of US debt held by foreigners has fallen to its lowest level since [----] (lhs blue). That's not due to foreign selling but rather that foreigners aren't buying (rhs pink) even as US debt issuance has skyrocketed (rhs black). Foreigners are on a buyer's strike"
X Link 2021-03-16T16:10Z 365.9K followers, [---] engagements

"Government debt in % GDP (lhs) is rightly criticized by @jasonfurman & @LHSummers as a measure of fiscal space who argue interest in % GDP (rhs) is better. The thing is markets don't believe that. Italy's interest cost (orange) is down a lot but markets are selling its debt"
X Link 2021-08-28T14:45Z 364.4K followers, [--] engagements

"@financecyprus Foreign flows into US assets aren't weak. Foreigners are happy to buy equities (orange) and corporate debt (blue). But they have become less willing to buy US Treasuries (red) where inflows have averaged near zero in recent years. So the Dollar can be strong but yields can rise"
X Link 2021-11-11T15:11Z 354.3K followers, [--] engagements

"Foreign investors are pulling money out of South Africa at a record pace. The strong Rand in H1 [----] was misleading since it resulted from deep recession that pushed the current account into surplus. Our $/ZAR fair value remains [-----] i.e. still a large 10% overvaluation"
X Link 2021-11-23T10:14Z 354.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@FlorianMKern If Italy exited the Euro would the yield on Italian bonds be higher or lower than the current 0.8% The overwhelming consensus is that it would be MUCH higher. So higher Italian yields arguably dont have much to do with Euro zone design especially after whatever it takes"
X Link 2021-12-05T03:42Z 363.1K followers, [--] engagements

"Foreign ownership of government debt is down massively across advanced economies with central bank QE increasingly the substitute of choice. The drop in foreign ownership is largest for the Euro zone where it's led by Greece (red). The US drop is small by comparison (purple)"
X Link 2021-12-05T16:18Z 363.3K followers, [---] engagements

"Brazil's terms of trade (orange) - the ratio of export to import prices - have fallen a bit lately but they are still at very elevated levels compared to Brazilian Real (white). That means recent weakness changes nothing in the underlying story. Fair value remains $/BRL 4.50"
X Link 2022-04-28T17:16Z 363.4K followers, [---] engagements

"Early in [----] @tashecon & I wondered: how could so many people be long Russian Ruble That chapter has now closed. CFTC data on Ruble positioning ended Mar [--]. Foreign investors won't be back in Russia for a very long time. And they'll be more careful around other autocrats"
X Link 2022-04-29T21:21Z 363.4K followers, [--] engagements

"The Nordstream [--] pipeline will be shut down for maintenance on July [--]. Since Putin has already cut gas flow it's likely this maintenance turns into a permanent shutdown. Our underlying assumption has always been this is where Europe ends up: complete shutdown and recession"
X Link 2022-06-30T11:17Z 365.7K followers, [----] engagements

"There's no law that says Brazil's GDP growth is always weak. In fact the growth slump since [----] (black) coincides with the big drop in oil prices (blue) when US shale depressed global oil prices. That's over. Oil and other commodity prices are way up. Brazil will start booming"
X Link 2022-07-03T14:57Z 364.3K followers, [----] engagements

"@gbrew24 The G7 proposal requires price cap language in the letter of credit needed to operate oil tankers out of Russia. Only with that letter of credit can you get insurance to operate the tankers. So in theory that means Putin only gets the cap whether China is in or out"
X Link 2022-07-11T18:48Z 354.2K followers, [--] engagements

"It used to be that Turkish Lira would reliably show up as the cheapest currency in EM valuation rankings. That's over. Foreign investors no longer see Lira devaluation as a signal to go long. They just see it as a signal that more devaluation is around the corner and stay away"
X Link 2022-07-12T07:33Z 354.3K followers, [---] engagements

"Global recession is coming. The forward-looking orders minus inventories metric in Germany (lhs blue) and Italy (rhs blue) is already as bad as in the [----] crisis and these data don't yet reflect the current spike in energy prices. The Euro zone is going into deep recession"
X Link 2022-08-22T14:54Z 366.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Emerging market investors bought into the Fed "pivot" in a big way with foreign inflows into non-China EM in recent weeks on par with the post-COVID recovery in Q4 [----]. So - if Chair Powell comes out hawkish tomorrow - there's going to be pain across EM"
X Link 2022-08-25T19:57Z 366.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@quirinobiscaro @klaus_adam The banks at auction are acting as a de facto intermediary for the ECB whhich is really the only buyer of net new Italian debt in recent years (blue). Foreigners are increasingly selling their holdings of BTPs (purple). Low yields are NOT a signal that all is well"
X Link 2022-10-15T17:06Z 365.8K followers, [--] engagements

"All that Euro zone gloating over the UK is completely off the mark. The UK is allowing price discovery in the bond market which is not the case for Italy in the Euro zone. UK policy is getting a firm "No" from markets and will adjust accordingly. That's not the case for Italy"
X Link 2022-10-22T17:06Z 354.9K followers, [---] engagements

"Markets have been trading China COVID reopening for the past week. That's why the Chilean Peso has risen so much along with the Korean Won & South Africa's Rand. It's ominous that Brazil & Colombia aren't rallying given their commodity exposure. Markets are skeptical of both"
X Link 2022-11-08T14:48Z 363.3K followers, [---] engagements

"Markets have no tolerance for what they see - rightly or wrongly - as unsustainable fiscal stimulus. That's why the UK bond market blew up & is why Italy BTPs see big foreign selling. Markets now zero in on Brazil removing Bolsa Familia from the spending cap. With @mcastellano44"
X Link 2022-11-17T12:53Z 355K followers, [---] engagements

"Turkey is running a wide current account deficit (black) & foreigner investors are pulling their money out (pink). Official FX reserves should be falling (gre) but instead they're rising. Capital inflows from Russia and the Gulf are so big that Turkey is building reserves"
X Link 2022-12-20T18:13Z 353.9K followers, 523.8K engagements

"Last trading day of the year and Brazil's Real is the best performing EM currency in [----]. Given substantial undervaluation - our fair value remains $/BRL [----] - the potential for appreciation in [----] is large. That appreciation will ease financial conditions and boost growth"
X Link 2022-12-30T16:22Z 360.4K followers, 60.2K engagements

"The hawkish drumbeat has picked up again after Friday's "hot" inflation reading. People need to chill. Across key surveys long-term inflation expectations did NOT de-anchor in the wake of the COVID shock. NO need for the Fed to do a [--] bps hike on March [--]. With @JonathanPingle"
X Link 2023-02-27T16:05Z 363.9K followers, 33.3K engagements

"The G7 cap aims to cut Putin's cashflow. Key to it working is that Russian oil leaves on western ships that comply with the cap. Biggest threat is Russia's "shadow" fleet which allows Putin to set his own price. Shadow fleet is biggest in the Baltic and Pacific. @JonathanPingle"
X Link 2023-03-22T13:09Z 362K followers, 17K engagements

"Bitcoin is displaying some genuine diversification attributes today - to the downside. A dovish Fed sent 2-year Treasury yield down in anticipation of looser monetary policy. That should see Bitcoin rally but instead it fell. Heads you lose. Tails you lose. If you hold Bitcoin"
X Link 2023-03-22T19:57Z 363.1K followers, 477.5K engagements

"Turkish Lira is down more than any other currency in the past [--] years. There's nothing inherently bad about Lira. It's a currency like any other. What's made it fall is policy choices which have - over and over - pursued short-term growth at the expense of a stable currency"
X Link 2023-06-17T11:33Z 363.3K followers, 830K engagements

"The spike in UK rates has many talking about emerging market status. Nonsense If there were an EM risk premium GBP would be falling yet it's rising This is just monetary policy at work. GBP will keep rising especially vs Euro where debt overhangs feed fiscal dominance"
X Link 2023-07-09T15:10Z 364K followers, 30K engagements

"The US inflation shock is over. We began flagging this a year ago when the combined weight of items with 2% inflation (black) started falling sharply from high levels in H1 [----]. The US inflation spike was transitory after all. There were just a lot of shocks along the way"
X Link 2023-07-12T14:54Z 363.3K followers, 28.7K engagements

"Today's a good reminder that our positive Brazilian Real story is 90% about the US. We today had low US CPI - we've flagged that the US inflation shock is over - and $/BRL moves sharply lower. The US inflation shock is ending. That's good for BRL. Our $/BRL fair value is 4.50"
X Link 2023-07-12T14:58Z 364.3K followers, 183.6K engagements

"Look at how volatile US core inflation is since COVID in contast to its stability pre-pandemic. The signal-to-noise ratio in individual data points is low which means: (i) no policy prescriptions based on the latest data point; (ii) this leans in favor of "team transitory.""
X Link 2023-07-12T15:19Z 363.3K followers, 14.9K engagements

"There's an odd sort of Dollar strength that has been building over the past month versus emerging markets. Everyone is down single digits even as US inflation is clearly slowing and the Fed prepares to go on hold. It's really odd to see this Dollar strength come out of nowhere"
X Link 2023-08-16T17:03Z 364.2K followers, 67.9K engagements

"The World's Top [--] Romantic Cities [--]. Frankfurt [--]. Istanbul [--]. New York [--]. Rome [--]. Paris"
X Link 2023-08-16T22:15Z 361.7K followers, 422.4K engagements

"The change in global capital flows is seismic. For the past decade China (red) attracted the bulk of capital flows to EM often at the expense of other BRICS. But China has now seen consistent and large outflows for the past [--] months as investors grow wary of autocracies"
X Link 2023-08-27T14:57Z 354.2K followers, 216.5K engagements

"Turkey is poster boy for large devaluations boosting exports. Export volumes are up far above other EMs (lhs red). But this hasn't lifted the current account as Turkey is addicted to election-driven credit expansions pushing up imports (rhs red). Next election is March 2024"
X Link 2023-09-02T14:10Z 363.1K followers, 59.1K engagements

"Earlier today I asked what's driving Mexican Peso strength. Most talk about friendshoring. Problem with that narrative is that net exports (pink) are an increasingly NEGATIVE growth driver. Mexico's exports are up but there's little import content and Mexico isn't benefiting. The rise in Mexico's Peso is massive. Peso has reversed its 2015/6 fall that stemmed from falling oil prices due to US shale. So I get the Peso fall in 2015/6 and the negative shock that drove it. What is the positive shock that's now driving Peso strength I don't get that. https://t.co/e6qu1XFh9D The rise in Mexico's"
X Link 2023-09-02T21:10Z 354.3K followers, 133.5K engagements

"Top [--] cities that make you want to "Put a Ring on It" [--]. Frankfurt [--]. Stockholm [--]. Rio de Janeiro [--]. Cape Town [--]. Auckland"
X Link 2023-09-11T16:52Z 362.1K followers, 71.6K engagements

"Russia's Ruble is the strongest EM currency by far since September. This means easy financial conditions for Putin's war machine making it easier for Russia to sustain its invasion of Ukraine. This is a policy choice. EU could have done many things to prevent this. It didn't"
X Link 2023-11-15T14:27Z 355.9K followers, 50.8K engagements

"The Colombian Peso is up 20% against the Dollar this year making it the strongest performer across EM. Much of Latin America - de facto - attained G10 status during COVID thanks to its central banks. Colombia's central bank is an absolute leader in this regard. @PaolaGuscoffIIF"
X Link 2023-11-19T15:30Z 354.2K followers, 60.9K engagements

"Kyrgyzstan is a key destination for European exports that - ultimately - go to Russia. Estonian (EE) exports to Kyrgyzstan are up 10000%. Finnish (FI) exports are up 3100% Poland (PL) is up 2200% and Greece (GR) is up 2100%. And - no - definitely not everyone is doing this"
X Link 2023-11-28T18:31Z 355.1K followers, 285.9K engagements

"The Colombian Peso is - by a large margin - the best performing EM currency this year. Two reasons for that: (i) a highly credible central bank that hiked early and proactively; (ii) a rapidly shrinking current account deficit that is more than covered by FDI. @PaolaGuscoffIIF"
X Link 2023-12-02T15:56Z 353.5K followers, 16.7K engagements

"The Colombian Peso is - by far - the strongest EM performer in [----]. It's appreciated a stunning +26% vs USD. That's a big reflection of its central bank which handled the COVID inflation shock and domestic uncertainty in exemplary fashion. Carry (orange) remains very favorable"
X Link 2023-12-26T16:38Z 354.3K followers, 20.3K engagements

"The naysayers on Brazil like to dismiss its massive trade surpluses because - they say - they're about weak imports and a weak economy. Not true Imports (red) are at their historical highs. The emergence of big trade surpluses is all about exports (blue). Brazil is rising"
X Link 2024-02-16T16:46Z 355.1K followers, 176K engagements

"@COdendahl Start of year price resets are pushing up inflation on both sides of the Atlantic much like last year at this time. We got some very ugly inflation prints for the Euro zone this time in [----] but inflation then fell very sharply for the rest of the year. It's the same now"
X Link 2024-03-06T15:40Z 363.3K followers, [----] engagements

"The world isn't decoupling from China. China's global trade surplus was near its all-time high in [----] (black). It's not even clear if the US is decoupling from China (blue) especially once you factor in all the stuff going from China to the US via third countries"
X Link 2024-03-10T16:15Z 353.6K followers, 130.7K engagements

"On any reasonable FX valuation model the Egyptian Pound is now significantly undervalued. That's because the fall in the real effective exchange rate (REER) is very big which - with a lag - will boost the current account balance. Now is the time for Egypt to float the Pound"
X Link 2024-03-17T15:49Z 355.9K followers, 286.7K engagements

"China apologists like to explain away China's massive export growth to Russia and Central Asia by saying: "China's exports to everywhere are booming not just to Russia and Central Asia." Wrong Chinese exports are very weak. There's only a boom to Russia and its satellites"
X Link 2024-03-19T13:44Z 355.4K followers, 118.8K engagements

"@teddyapril0891 This isn't complicated. China - like Russia - is a current account surplus country meaning it exports more than it imports. Those exports go to the West. That means its economy - like Russia - is fundamentally dependent on Western consumers"
X Link 2024-03-26T14:39Z 355.8K followers, [----] engagements

"Whenever implied volatility in Mexico's Peso falls sharply the way it has recently this is followed in rapid fashion by a blow up. You don't have to stretch your imagination too much to know what the catalyst will be this time. If Trump wins the election he'll go after Mexico"
X Link 2024-04-07T09:18Z 363.7K followers, 16.8K engagements

"There is no city that is more beautiful than Frankfurt but there is no country that is more beautiful than Italy"
X Link 2024-04-07T15:41Z 364.4K followers, 88.9K engagements

"China and Russia are the perfect symbiotic relationship. China imports huge amounts of Russian energy (red) and exports tons of goods to Russia (blue) that keep its war economy going. This surge in trade only began after Russia invaded Ukraine. China is Putin's biggest enabler"
X Link 2024-04-22T14:38Z 355.9K followers, 462.3K engagements

"The #MMT crowd is trying to "normalize" the huge drop in the Yen. In real effective terms Yen is down more than Turkish Lira Egyptian Pound or Argentinian Peso since [----]. Japan is a debt crisis that's morphed into a currency crisis. There's nothing normal about any of that"
X Link 2024-04-29T19:54Z 353.3K followers, 173.5K engagements

"The US has a major issue of prime-age men giving up and permanently exiting the labor force. What's striking about this is that it doesn't get talked about at all - not in the mainstream media and not by economists - even though this obviously feeds political radicalization"
X Link 2024-05-05T14:31Z 353.9K followers, 1.1M engagements

"The last time Japan allowed real 10-year yield to rise sharply - back in [----] - was a big policy mistake. Every other country was easing monetary policy lots which Japan didn't match. Real yield rose sharply causing the Yen to appreciate and driving Japan into deep deflation"
X Link 2024-05-23T08:56Z 342.6K followers, 15.7K engagements

"The huge appreciation of the Mexican Peso (red) has been a bubble waiting to burst. Overvaluation is on the order of 20%. Obvious catalyst to burst this bubble is the US election in November where a Trump win could bring lots of headwinds. This weekend's election is another one"
X Link 2024-06-03T14:14Z 363.7K followers, 223.8K engagements

"LatAm FX is a bloodbath since Mexico's election. It makes sense for Mexican Peso to weaken since it was substantially overvalued in the run-up to the election. But it makes no sense to me why there is contagion to the Colombian Peso or Brazilian Real. No overvaluation there"
X Link 2024-06-12T14:28Z 364.4K followers, 177.7K engagements

"Emerging markets are in a big sell-off. There's one big macro story that's driven this which is the spike in US inflation earlier this year but that's fading. Now it's lots of idiosyncratic stories like the bursting of the Mexican Peso carry trade bubble since the elections"
X Link 2024-06-13T15:44Z 364.4K followers, 69.4K engagements

"EM has been hit very hard in recent weeks in a sell-off that's almost on par with the [----] "taper tantrum." The trade-weighted Dollar vs EM (blue) is almost back to its [----] high when the Fed was making [--] bps hikes. This sell-off should now end as US inflation falls rapidly"
X Link 2024-06-14T14:48Z 359.9K followers, 13.4K engagements

"When I started banging the drum about Brazil being substantially undervalued in early [----] $/BRL was [----]. This sell-off is therefore nothing we haven't seen before but it doesn't change the fact that Brazil got hit harder than every other EM. Real is back to 20% undervalued"
X Link 2024-06-19T17:05Z 360.1K followers, 58.4K engagements

"@davewmyers @dampedspring Super helpful. Yes this is a RMSE around a hypothetical spline so kinks in the curve get read as "illiquidity." Big picture: we are issuing a ton of debt in Bills. We're doing that because yields would jump a lot if we issued at the long end. That's basically poor liquidity"
X Link 2024-06-27T00:47Z 355.5K followers, [----] engagements

"We've pounded the drum on residual seasonality. Today's very low core PCE reading for May is another reminder how much start-of-year price resets made inflation look worse than it really was early in '23 and '24. Underlying inflation is back to the Fed target. With @peter_orszag"
X Link 2024-06-28T14:23Z 363.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine wouldn't be possible without China which has more than offset the drop in G7 exports to Russia. This is why European talk about "strategic autonomy" is so dangerously deluded. There is no third way. China is Putin's biggest enabler of war in Ukraine"
X Link 2024-07-14T15:47Z 363.4K followers, 88.2K engagements

"We have been flagging that market pricing for Fed cuts was much too backloaded into [----]. That is correcting at massive speed now with moves that parallel what happened after the SVB blow-up in March [----]. The hawkish inflation story has been a trap just like in 2023"
X Link 2024-08-02T14:55Z 363.5K followers, 28.2K engagements

"Italy's budget deficit is out of control. In Jan - Jul '24 the deficit is almost back to [----] i.e. peak-COVID. You can keep Italy's yields artificially low by using the ECB to intervene periodically most notably in [----]. But that - inevitably - leads to fiscal profligacy"
X Link 2024-08-03T12:31Z 362.1K followers, 224.1K engagements

"Sovcomflot has [---] oil tankers. [--] are sanctioned by the US knocking them out. Here's how the other [---] unsanctioned oil tankers are used: out of Russia's Baltic (red) and Pacific (blue) ports. These ships make up 15% of total seaborne oil exports. Sanction them. @SheetsElijahD"
X Link 2024-08-19T13:01Z 363.4K followers, 18.4K engagements

"There's [---] unsanctioned Sovcomflot oil tankers (out of a total of 120). Of those [---] only a fraction gets used every month. Currently it's around [--] ships which are evenly split between the Baltic (red) and Pacific (blue). Oil tankers are Putin's Achilles heel. @SheetsElijahD"
X Link 2024-08-20T13:13Z 363.4K followers, 10.2K engagements

"Almost all EU countries fall over themselves exporting goods to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. This has gone on for [--] years and is getting worse. All that said South Korean exports to Kyrgyzstan are on another level. How will the West ever confront autocrats if this is what we are"
X Link 2024-09-22T12:52Z 353.5K followers, 103.6K engagements

"When people tell me that the strengthening in the Japanese Yen (black) is over I show them this chart. In real effective terms the Yen is down -25% since COVID first hit even with its recent recovery. Only the Egyptian Pound is weaker. Yen strength is only just starting"
X Link 2024-10-02T11:16Z 364.4K followers, 15.8K engagements

"Eastern Europe just discovered Kyrgyzstan. Compared to before the invasion Hungary's exports are up 3100% Bulgaria's are 3200% Slovakia's are 3700% Serbia's are 1500% Romania's are 1800% and Slovenia's are 200%. The EU is investigating why Slovenia isn't doing better"
X Link 2024-10-03T18:16Z 330.9K followers, 86.3K engagements

"@SanderTordoir @Martin_M_Guzman @JosephEStiglitz @emiliano_libman @Maia_Colo @jvtklooster @smrwsk @WaibelM09 Congrats Sander Super well done"
X Link 2024-10-13T14:59Z 354.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@borghi_claudio How about Italian politicians worry about Italy and German politicians worry about Germany. The latter includes stopping the ECB from intervening to support high-debt countries so that Italian populists can stop pretending Italy has lots of fiscal space when in fact it has zero"
X Link 2024-10-24T15:56Z 352.5K followers, [----] engagements

"China makes it very clear that its main weapon in response to more Trump tariffs is large up-front Yuan depreciation. That's a game changer after the election. If Trump wins $/JPY isn't heading to [---] but to [---]. This election will have a massive market impact"
X Link 2024-10-25T12:34Z 363.4K followers, 687.6K engagements

"A reckoning is coming for the EU. You can't claim the mantle of leadership and be silent in the face of massive transshipments to Russia. Exports from Romania to Kyrgyzstan are up 2200% since before the invasion Slovakia is up 2500% Hungary 3300% and Bulgaria 3200%. Absurd"
X Link 2024-11-02T14:36Z 353.6K followers, 111.1K engagements

"Brazil's Real (blue) is back down to its all-time low in [----] after COVID first hit. None of the recent weakness is about Brazil specifically. The rest of EM is down just as much (black) so this is mostly about US rates rising and - very recently - hedging of a Trump presidency"
X Link 2024-11-03T18:55Z 364.4K followers, 69.7K engagements

"In [----] the ECB intervened to cap Italian bond yields. This is the result. Although Italian gov't debt is among the highest in the Euro zone (horizontal) Italy runs the widest fiscal deficit (vertical) thanks to the massively irresponsible "Superbonus." What's the plan here"
X Link 2024-11-09T16:02Z 363.3K followers, 115.7K engagements

"The Euro zone doesn't need clunky industrial policy. It doesn't need fights over joint EU debt issuance. All it needs is a lower Euro and markets will take care of the rest. Euro in [----] went below parity and should never have gone back above. Markets are now fixing that mistake"
X Link 2024-11-21T17:14Z 352.6K followers, 19.9K engagements

"It makes zero sense for the Brazilian Real to be as beaten down as it is while the Mexican Peso - even with its fall since the terrible judicial reform - is still elevated. Mexico is ground zero for illegal immigration into the US and drug trafficking. Mexico is very vulnerable"
X Link 2024-12-22T15:29Z 330.5K followers, 39.6K engagements

"The EU has huge leverage over Putin. Its ban on Russian seaborne oil means Sovcomflot oil tankers must make far longer journeys around Europe so Putin has had to concentrate this fleet in the Baltic (red) and the Pacific (blue). The EU can shut down Russia's war machine"
X Link 2024-12-26T16:15Z 363.2K followers, 28K engagements

"Before the invasion Ukraine China's exports to Russia were $50 bn per year. That number was up to $120 bn in [----]. There is no bigger enabler of Putin's invasion of Ukraine which also means that China poses a direct and material threat to the democracies of Western Europe"
X Link 2025-01-18T16:46Z 330.8K followers, 66.3K engagements

"Germany leads the EU in transshipment to Russia via places like Kyrgyzstan (lhs) and Kazakhstan (rhs). This has been known for [--] years and the SPD-led gov't did nothing to stop this. The worst thing for Germany after all this would be grand coalition that includes the SPD"
X Link 2025-01-19T17:18Z 363.8K followers, 15.8K engagements

"Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine there's been a flood of goods going to Russia via Central Asia. Countries in Scandinavia - like Finland and Sweden - clamped down on this while countries like Germany and Poland look the other way. Scandinavia deserves big kudos for this"
X Link 2025-01-26T13:35Z 363.4K followers, 116.4K engagements

"Key question for markets is if tariffs are priced in any meaningful way. Answer: NO The Euro (top left) and British Pound (top middle) have fallen much more since the US election than Canada's Dollar (top right) or the Japanese Yen (bottom left). Tariffs are NOT priced"
X Link 2025-01-31T10:32Z 330.8K followers, 11.2K engagements

"China is a chronic currency manipulator and resulting undervaluation of RMB is a key imbalance in the global economy. This is getting worse. China's real effective RMB has been falling in recent years (CN) unlike the currencies of India (IN) Philippines (PH) and Singapore (SG)"
X Link 2025-02-04T09:47Z 330.7K followers, 15.6K engagements

"Brazil's Real is up 10% since mid-December. That's good but it remains 22% undervalued versus my $/BRL [----] fair value. Brazil's gov't makes many mistakes talking to markets but this undervaluation just isn't justified. Lots more room for Brazil's Real to strengthen further"
X Link 2025-02-06T22:56Z 330.5K followers, 124.8K engagements

"When I was still on the GS trading floor we'd study price action after payrolls for clues about market psychology. Today is interesting. Payrolls were weak but 10-year yield is up. That's a signal we're in a rates "higher" regime. Markets want to push gov't bond yields higher"
X Link 2025-02-07T14:57Z 330.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Recent tariffs on China went under the radar drowned out by threat of 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico. Those didn't happen but China tariffs did. They're big coming near combined tariff hikes in 2018/19. Cut through the noise and this trade war is about China as it should be"
X Link 2025-02-08T13:46Z 344.4K followers, 74.5K engagements

"President Trump is planning reciprocal tariffs on countries that apply higher tariffs on the US (red) than the US puts on them (blue). Much of the focus here has been on the EU but it's EM that's in trouble. South Korea (KR) India (IN) Mexico (MX) and China (CN) stand out"
X Link 2025-02-09T13:11Z 331K followers, 455.7K engagements

"Europe's Top [--] Romantic Cities for Valentine's Day [--]. Frankfurt [--]. Stockholm [--]. Copenhagen [--]. Warsaw [--]. Vienna"
X Link 2025-02-09T14:00Z 355.6K followers, 57K engagements

"@JGodiasMurphy Yes youre right the World Bank WITS data dont appear to capture these FTAs. Thanks for flagging and I am looking into this"
X Link 2025-02-09T16:09Z 330.4K followers, [----] engagements

"President Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs on those that tariff the US more than we tariff them. This may hit EMs - including Thailand (TH) Argentina (AR) and Brazil (BR) - hard. Some cross-referenced data points which should be ok (India doesn't reflect recent tariff cuts)"
X Link 2025-02-10T13:37Z 330.4K followers, 39.9K engagements

"Canada just can't quite make it out of the crosshairs of the new US administration. Canada is biggest foreign supplier of steel (lhs blue) - just edging out the EU (lhs orange) - and by far the biggest foreign supplier of aluminum (rhs blue). China is NOT a big supplier"
X Link 2025-02-10T20:41Z 330.5K followers, 22.8K engagements

"There's [--] drivers of Trump tariffs: (i) border security (Canada Colombia Mexico); (ii) geopolitics (steel & aluminum); (iii) fairness (reciprocal tariffs & currency manipulation). China is the only country to be tariffed - and will get tariffed more - as it hits all of these"
X Link 2025-02-11T13:59Z 330.6K followers, 47.2K engagements

"Markets have ignored President Trump's China tariffs as they think they're a negotiating tool and can quickly fall by the wayside like for Canada Colombia and Mexico. That's wrong. Underlying motivation is totally different. China tariffs are here to stay and will go higher"
X Link 2025-02-11T14:08Z 330.7K followers, 66.1K engagements

"China has moved $/CNY (blue) back to the top end of the 2% band (gray) around the official fix (black). China is threatening devaluation in response to the 10% tariff of Feb. [--] but it hasn't devalued yet. China is hoping to negotiate. Only once negotiation fails will it devalue"
X Link 2025-02-11T14:23Z 330.5K followers, 29.4K engagements

"It's true that US steel production isn't up since the imposition of a 25% tariff in [----] but it's also true that there were lots of exclusions to that tariff which de facto allowed lots of steel into the US tariff free. Those exclusions on steel imports are now rescinded"
X Link 2025-02-11T16:59Z 330.4K followers, 11.8K engagements

"There's many reasons why the US election went the way it did but this is perhaps the biggest. Chart shows border "encounters" which surged to unprecedented levels under the Biden administration. A deeply divisive issue that I saw unsettle many otherwise centrist US voters"
X Link 2025-02-12T12:26Z 330.4K followers, 26.4K engagements

"Ever since COVID January inflation has come in "hot." Today's core CPI is no different. My best proxy for underlying inflation is "core" services (blue) and that looks well-behaved. So this "hot" reading is largely about noise and residual seasonality as in [----] and 2024"
X Link 2025-02-12T14:03Z 330.6K followers, 32.9K engagements

"Today's "hot" core CPI is a [--] standard deviation surprise vs Bloomberg consensus. The [--] bps jump in 10-year yield - relative to that surprise - is the biggest since April '24 when upside to March '24 core CPI caused a [--] bps jump. This is noise but markets will run with it"
X Link 2025-02-12T14:39Z 330.4K followers, 10.3K engagements

"There is no choice but to be a Dollar bull these days. This chart shows the evolution of the 10y10y forward rate differential of the US vis-a-vis its G10 peers. We have gone WAY above where we were around this time after the [----] Trump win. Lots more Dollar strength coming"
X Link 2025-02-12T16:22Z 330.5K followers, 12.7K engagements

"Euro is rallying against the Dollar on headlines that the US and Russia will hold talks over Ukraine. Markets treat this as if it's good news for Europe but of course it's bad news. This was Europe's chance to step up. It failed terribly. Now it will pay a very heavy price"
X Link 2025-02-12T18:01Z 330.6K followers, 79.3K engagements

"Germany's industrial decline is the result of timidity. After talking about a "Zeitenwende" the Chancellor should have pushed for a full energy embargo on Russia. That would have meant a spike in oil prices but Russia would have imploded. Germany would be far better off now"
X Link 2025-02-13T15:33Z 330.5K followers, 11.6K engagements

"The writings been on the wall on this since at least the US election. Europe could have stood up against Russia so many times most recently on Jan. [--] when the US sanctioned [---] Russian ships but it didnt. Its not too late. Stand up for yourself now https://on.ft.com/3CPFU84 https://on.ft.com/3CPFU84"
X Link 2025-02-13T15:43Z 330.4K followers, 11.6K engagements

"@Ewald38660566 Sanctioning shadow fleet vessels that are a serious environmental hazard and have questionable insurance is not an act of war. The US just sanctioned [---] Russian vessels - most of them oil tankers - and global markets barely moved. Europe has leverage and should use it"
X Link 2025-02-13T16:18Z 330.5K followers, [----] engagements

"Russia is a one-trick pony: it exports energy primarily oil. The EU has massive leverage over any peace deal in Ukraine because the single biggest exit point for Russian oil is the Baltic. The EU needs to stop protecting ship owners and start protecting the people of Europe"
X Link 2025-02-13T16:34Z 330.6K followers, 33.3K engagements

"Yesterday's announcement of reciprocal tariffs lays out a framework for large US tariff hikes on the rest of the world. There's only one thing the Dollar should do in response: rise So the fact that the Dollar is falling is noise and definitely something to be very skeptical of"
X Link 2025-02-14T14:06Z 330.6K followers, 12.4K engagements

"Happy Valentine's Day from the world's capital of romance. #Frankfurt"
X Link 2025-02-14T14:19Z 330.5K followers, 13.7K engagements

"Following yesterday's reciprocal tariff announcement the Dollar has seen its biggest fall since the election. Lots of stories out there on why that might be but to me those just sound like ex post rationalizations of price action. Tariffs mean the Dollar should rise not fall"
X Link 2025-02-14T14:30Z 330.5K followers, [----] engagements

"Weaker-than-expected US retail sales are adding to Dollar-bearish sentiment. Euro is up to the strongest level in [--] months. Come on people this is silly. Weak US retail sales are payback for strong numbers into the end of [----]. The US is way stronger than most other places"
X Link 2025-02-14T14:50Z 344.4K followers, 10K engagements

"Sad reality in Europe is that high debt countries use every opportunity to argue for joint EU debt issuance. Its certainly easier to dream up ways to use German fiscal space than do your job. Stop with the financial engineering and bring down your debt https://on.ft.com/42T7ax1 https://on.ft.com/42T7ax1"
X Link 2025-02-14T16:32Z 330.6K followers, 20.9K engagements

"@LeDivinRichard Governments have to decide what they want. Do they want to be popular or do they want to avoid a debt crisis Currently that trade-off isn't clear because France Italy and Spain keep pushing for joint EU debt issuance and pressure the ECB to cap yields. That must change"
X Link 2025-02-14T16:38Z 330.4K followers, [---] engagements

"As of Tuesday this past week - so after the announcement of steel and aluminum tariffs but before the announcement of reciprocal tariffs - FX markets were long the Japanese Yen in fairly substantial size. Just one more data point showing markets are completely ignoring tariffs"
X Link 2025-02-15T13:38Z 330.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@SimonJohnBowden @SHamiltonian That's exactly the right way of putting it. The ECB in [----] intervened heavily to cap Italy's bond yields and introduced a new tool (TPI) to de facto replace OMT with far less conditionality. This is the result. Reckless fiscal policy and just more debt accumulation"
X Link 2025-02-15T13:43Z 330.5K followers, [--] engagements

"Europe feels left out on Ukraine. Stop complaining and use your leverage The Baltic (top right) is the biggest exit point for Russian oil with many shadow fleet oil tankers (gray) transporting Russian oil. Europe can sanction those ships. That will get everyone's attention"
X Link 2025-02-15T14:01Z 330.9K followers, 63.8K engagements

"Germany has [--] challenges: (i) a growth model that's broken; (ii) a rising AfD due to immigration; (iii) a Euro zone where high debt countries dominate the ECB and constantly try to grab German fiscal space. Solution to all [--] is a new government willing to make tough decisions"
X Link 2025-02-16T12:24Z 330.8K followers, 60.3K engagements

"Germany's CDU is battling a credibility problem. The way the polls look it will have to go into coalition with SPD and Greens post-election. That completely undercuts its credibility because SPD and Greens are responsible for so much of what's gone badly wrong in Germany"
X Link 2025-02-16T12:35Z 330.6K followers, 55.8K engagements

"The US is being hard on Europe and - after [--] years of hypocrisy on Ukraine - it's hard to have any sympathy. What's true however is that China flies below the radar. China's current account surplus in Q4 '24 is the largest ever. Europe may be pathetic but it's not the enemy"
X Link 2025-02-17T12:21Z 330.8K followers, 51.9K engagements

"China's BoP looks increasingly farcical. China in [----] had one of the largest current account surpluses ever (blue) yet it also says it had a drop in official FX reserves (black). That's just silly. The IMF is again asleep at the wheel. It should call this out not stay silent"
X Link 2025-02-17T12:35Z 330.6K followers, 13.9K engagements

"The degree of hyperventilating in the EU is insufferable. For [--] years now EU behavior on Ukraine has been hypocritical greedy and just plain amoral. Spare us your moral outrage. Spare us how you're being abandoned. And - above all - spare us how more of the same is the answer"
X Link 2025-02-17T12:48Z 330.9K followers, 137.3K engagements

"The next German gov't must NOT cave to demands from high-debt countries for joint debt issuance. Why do this with countries that chronically mismanage public debt Germany must go its own path. It's only time to talk when these countries cut their debt meaningfully. Not before"
X Link 2025-02-18T15:15Z 330.6K followers, 18.4K engagements

"Germany's economic malaise started well before COVID with the VW diesel scandal late adoption of electric vehicle technology and growing red tape around environmental regulations. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the associated energy shock then came on top of all of that"
X Link 2025-02-18T19:49Z 330.9K followers, 13.8K engagements

"It's impossible to overstate the disaster that's befallen German manufacturing. Here's capacity utilization in electrical equipment manufacturing which is now far below COVID in [----] and almost as bad as during the Global Financial Crisis in [----]. Germany needs drastic change"
X Link 2025-02-18T20:08Z 330.8K followers, 61.9K engagements

"It'd be a tragedy to just lift Russia sanctions. Those sanctions work and exact pain on Putin. Here's Russia's current account every January from [----] to [----]. There's always a big surplus in January but not in [----]. Russia is hurting. Get something in return for lifting them"
X Link 2025-02-19T12:25Z 330.9K followers, 42.8K engagements

"China has been Putin's biggest enabler since Russia invaded Ukraine. Its exports to Russia have more than offset the fall in Western exports so there's no place for China in any negotiation over ending war in Ukraine. China is no disinterested party. It's Putin's biggest ally"
X Link 2025-02-19T12:32Z 330.8K followers, 68.8K engagements

"@TomPRmx Russia exports oil primarily and the biggest export point for that oil is the Baltic. The EU can single-handedly - without the US - impair those exports by sanctioning shadow fleet ships which are very substantial in the Baltic. That will get everyone's attention"
X Link 2025-02-19T12:34Z 330.6K followers, [---] engagements

"@MartinJordo Japan's per capita real GDP growth is equivalent to that of the Euro zone over the past decade with essentially no immigration and thus far fewer headaches in terms of integration. Japan genuinely challenges the pro-immigration talking points I think"
X Link 2025-02-20T20:47Z 330.8K followers, 21.6K engagements

"There's really no light at the end of the tunnel for German manufacturing especially in the auto sector where business expectations are as low as right after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and worse than during COVID or during the global financial crisis in 2008"
X Link 2025-02-21T15:12Z 330.9K followers, 10.9K engagements

"Headline CPI inflation in Japan is running at 4.0% y/y and now lies above the US (3.0% y/y). But underlying inflation dynamics remain very different. Japan is a chronic low-inflation economy. Mounting trade tensions will only exacerbate that. Deflation is the risk. Not inflation"
X Link 2025-02-21T15:50Z 330.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@FillingTheCrack That is all true. But we don't even know really what happened in Brussels. Did Greece really threaten a national veto over these oil tanker sales Did Greece similarly boycott a lower G7 price cap All this has to start with a full investigation and transparency"
X Link 2025-02-22T15:55Z 330.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The US on Jan. [--] sanctioned [--] shadow fleet oil tankers operating for Putin. That fleet didn't come out of thin air. One EU country - Greece - sold Putin the single biggest chunk of ships allowing Putin to circumvent the G7 cap and keep his war economy going. With @econ_harris"
X Link 2025-02-22T16:12Z 330.9K followers, 59.4K engagements

"@Mmxs68389252 Yes a disaster. It raises the odds substantially that AfD will keep growing and will be much stronger [--] years from now"
X Link 2025-02-23T20:56Z 330.9K followers, [----] engagements

"There's only one question that matters for today's election in Germany: does the outcome hurt or help the AfD CDU tried to tighten immigration law before the election but was undercut by SPD and Greens. CDU now goes weakened into coalition negotiations. The only winner is AfD"
X Link 2025-02-23T21:29Z 330.9K followers, 57.3K engagements

"@chigrl Sure. Winner are Die Linke - the extreme left party that is the successor to the East German communist party - and arguably the SPD which didn't quite implode as much as was feared. But my perspective is what's good at stopping the rise in AfD and that's definitely not this"
X Link 2025-02-23T21:59Z 330.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Winners & losers in Germany's election Winners: - AfD (Grand Coalition will feed its rise) - SPD (is in gov't after an appalling [--] years) - Linke (exploited CDU efforts to tighten immigration) Losers: - Greens (no longer in gov't) - FDP (punished for being fiscally responsible) #Germania risultati di scrutinio definitivi [---] collegi su [---] CDU/CSU 285% 🟦 AFD 208% 🟥 SPD 164% 🟩 Verdi 116% 🟪 Linke 88% 🟫 BSW 497% 🟨 FDP 43% #Germania risultati di scrutinio definitivi [---] collegi su [---] CDU/CSU 285% 🟦 AFD 208% 🟥 SPD 164% 🟩 Verdi 116% 🟪 Linke 88% 🟫 BSW 497% 🟨 FDP 43%"
X Link 2025-02-24T14:55Z 330.8K followers, 44K engagements

"When Putin invaded Ukraine [--] years ago today his basic calculus was that Western democracies are too weak to respond forcefully. In this he has sadly been proven right. Time ran out on Western leaders who were too timid to confront Russia forcefully. Ukraine pays the price"
X Link 2025-02-24T15:29Z 330.9K followers, 18.6K engagements

"Markets have pushed up Euro vs Dollar recently on hopes of European outperformance. My question to those doing this is: the EU proved itself completely unable to respond to Ukraine in ways that were needed. What makes you think it can now get its act together vis-a-vis Trump"
X Link 2025-02-26T13:54Z 363.1K followers, 10.2K engagements

"The EU only knows how to push one button: the debt button. When countries like Italy France & Spain run out of fiscal space they push for joint EU debt issuance. Money is fungible so this loosens their fiscal constraint. Germany's planned fiscal expansion makes all this worse"
X Link 2025-03-05T06:36Z 353.9K followers, 85.7K engagements

"Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers didn't come out of nowhere. Most of these ships were sold to Putin by Greece's shipping oligarchs. Greece opposes any outright ban on such sales by the EU protecting its shipping oligarchs. Greece should be stripped of any say in Brussels"
X Link 2025-03-16T15:36Z 363.3K followers, 112.7K engagements

"Turkey has experienced countless currency crises in the past [--] years. They are all completely self-inflicted and unnecessary. President Erdogan keeps pushing growth above what Turkey's economy can sustain. That ends up - again and again - in currency crisis and devaluation"
X Link 2025-03-26T14:14Z 364.4K followers, 67.9K engagements

"Great discussion of Mar-a-Lago with @katie_martin_fx & @rbrtrmstrng from @FT. Mar-a-Lago sounds like a debt restructuring. It therefore carries the risk that it could drive US interest rates much higher if markets exit Treasuries https://on.ft.com/4iXrpOY https://on.ft.com/4iXrpOY"
X Link 2025-03-26T16:00Z 366K followers, [----] engagements

"@NGurushina Good point The big unknown is at what point depreciation expectations start to build domestically which could then spark capital flight. Presumably if tariffs go to 30% or 40% that has to happen at some point. That's where I see China's vulnerability"
X Link 2025-03-27T14:29Z 366.1K followers, [---] engagements

"Key question for the week ahead is whether things get worse before they get better. Incentives say they get worse. Falling S&P [---] puts pressure on the US to reverse its tariff policy. This means the rest of the world has an incentive to taken further actions that weaken S&P [---]. In the past this kind of stock market meltdown would bring world leaders together to stabilize markets. But incentives are different now. The rest of the world wants this sell-off to get worse as it raises the cost to the US of its tariff policy raising odds the US backs down. https://t.co/BQq6cuMnti In the past this"
X Link 2025-04-06T16:14Z 362.9K followers, 66.9K engagements

"The US in January sanctioned [---] Russian ships. Those sanctions crushed the shadow fleet shutting down sanctioned ships in the Baltic Black Sea and Pacific (blue). EU sanctions (red) aren't quite as effective but also shut down activity. Sanction more ships With @econ_harris"
X Link 2025-04-08T14:49Z 363.6K followers, 14.4K engagements

"Important to follow EM closely right now. EM currencies - here is South Africa's Rand - have kept weakening even as S&P [---] has stabilized. Additional big US tariffs on China raise sharply the risk of RMB devaluation which would hurt EM currencies badly. EM smells RMB deval"
X Link 2025-04-08T18:49Z 355K followers, 38.5K engagements

"The spike in 10-year Treasury yields in March [----] was caused by EM. EM currencies were tumbling as COVID drove capital flight. EM central banks needed Dollars to intervene so they sold Treasuries. That upended the basis trade spiking yields. A similar dynamic is building now"
X Link 2025-04-09T11:33Z 354.2K followers, 25.9K engagements

"The only way Italy will ever reduce its debt overhang is if it's exposed to true market interest rates. For that to happen ECB needs to be forced out of Euro zone debt markets. Once that happens Italian yields will shoot up and Italian fiscal consolidation will finally start"
X Link 2025-04-15T13:22Z 363.1K followers, 16.3K engagements

"@LucaFornaro3 @WeakConqueror Appreciate your perspective. It's hard. Debt reduction isn't fun but what's the alternative Time for Italian politics to grow up instead of pretending that this problem can indefinitely be postponed for future generations (or shifted to German tax payers via the ECB)"
X Link 2025-04-21T16:08Z 362.4K followers, [---] engagements

"Just before Russia invaded Ukraine there was a surge in Russian tourist arrivals in the US. The interesting thing is that this surge ended well before the invasion. So Putin told his oligarch buddies to do one last splurge on 5th Avenue and get home well before the invasion"
X Link 2025-04-26T17:09Z 363.5K followers, 60K engagements

"Speculative positioning in global FX markets is now very short the US Dollar. What's notable is that past episodes of stretched Dollar short positioning were heavily skewed towards Euro longs (blue). Not the case now. Markets understand there's not much to cheer about in the EU"
X Link 2025-05-17T19:25Z 367K followers, 33.3K engagements

"Great column by @gilliantett in @FT on the Treasury market and fiscal policy thats been on an unsustainable path for a long time. At some point the US will wear out its exorbitant privilege. The Treasury market is sending worrying signs https://on.ft.com/45LDxz4 https://on.ft.com/45LDxz4"
X Link 2025-06-04T10:49Z 354.9K followers, 12.4K engagements

"China's producer price inflation for consumer goods is down to its lowest level since the [----] crisis. US tariffs will now push China into full-on deflation. All necessary conditions for deflation are there: weak consumption and a debt overhang. US tariffs are now the catalyst"
X Link 2025-06-05T15:07Z 361.6K followers, 21.9K engagements

"US tariffs on China are a big deflationary shock most obviously so for China where goods that would have gone to the US now pile up in warehouses. But also for the rest of the world where China is now dumping goods that would have gone to the US. Deflation is the real story"
X Link 2025-06-09T13:32Z 353.2K followers, 79K engagements

"US tariff news reliably moves interest rate differentials against the Dollar. Today is no exception. This is super weird. If tariffs are a big deal they're inflationary for the US and deflationary for exporters to the US. That should move rate differentials in favor of USD"
X Link 2025-06-12T14:01Z 363.5K followers, 32.6K engagements

"@Ads44901396 Yes but Italy also has really high debt. As you know Italy has a big underground economy so lots of taxes never get paid. The alternative to wealth taxes is to eliminate cash in Italy thereby eliminating the underground economy. Just pay your taxes"
X Link 2025-06-15T02:22Z 353.8K followers, 13.3K engagements

"@borghi_claudio @fdragoni I am puzzled how people like you cheer about the break-up of the Euro. The Italian Lira would devalue massively Italian gov't debt would likely have to be restructured and Italians would lose much of their pensions. Wouldn't it be better for Italy to fix its public finances"
X Link 2025-06-22T16:31Z 352.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Very strong safe haven demand for the Dollar. The US is much more energy intensive than the rest of the G10 so rate differentials (blue) have fallen as risk of oil market disruption goes up. But the Dollar (black) is up sharply. These are pure unadulterated safe haven inflows"
X Link 2025-06-23T11:57Z 352.6K followers, 39.7K engagements

"The only thing that will stop governments from running bad fiscal policy is for central banks to let bond yields spike. Today's rise in UK yields shows the Bank of England is happy to do that. This is good not bad. The UK will get its fiscal house in order before everyone else"
X Link 2025-07-02T13:28Z 364.4K followers, 49K engagements

"Euro makes new all-time highs every day in trade weighted terms. Many countries - above all China - peg to the Dollar. That supercharges the rise in Euro vs USD (white) taking Euro to stratospheric levels in trade-weighted terms (orange). Deflation is coming for the Euro zone"
X Link 2025-07-08T19:58Z 354.9K followers, 107.2K engagements

"For Europe to defend itself properly it doesn't need joint EU debt issuance. Better alternative is to drop the Euro and revert to national currencies. Ensuing devaluations and debt write-downs will free up fiscal space allowing each country to boost defense spending as needed"
X Link 2025-07-12T12:20Z 352.5K followers, 48.9K engagements

"Since the imposition of large US tariffs China's exports to Hungary are up 40%. This kind of thing is a symptom of all the pressure building up on Chinese exporters who are struggling with overflowing warehouses. A massive deflationary shock for everyone outside the US"
X Link 2025-07-18T20:48Z 355.1K followers, 67.3K engagements

"Chinese goods are flooding small out-of-the way places like Albania (lhs) and Switzerland (rhs). That's the huge impact US tariffs are having on Chinese exporters who face overflowing warehouses with goods that should have gone to the US and are now getting dumped elsewhere"
X Link 2025-07-19T13:06Z 353.9K followers, 72.1K engagements

"The world's top [--] most romantic cuisines right now [--]. German [--]. Japanese [--]. Korean [--]. Italian [--]. British"
X Link 2025-07-20T18:53Z 367.3K followers, 63.8K engagements

"Lots of Western reporting makes China out to be an impervious monolith in the face of US tariffs. That stuff is just as misleading as the "Fortress Russia" coverage after the Ukraine invasion. China is heading into deflation. Nothing impervious about that. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/us-tariffs-and-deflation-in-china/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/us-tariffs-and-deflation-in-china/"
X Link 2025-07-26T12:09Z 352.2K followers, 16.8K engagements

"The Dollar is seeing a big rise. Several drivers: (i) EU - US trade deal is reminder that - having dropped the ball on Ukraine - EU is supplicant not master; (ii) tariffs are Dollar-positive the fact that they drove the Dollar down was always an anomaly. The Dollar has based"
X Link 2025-07-28T19:37Z 355.9K followers, 27.4K engagements

"How the EU stops being weak [--]. Germany's been a weak hegemon for too long [--]. It must crack the whip on all high debt countries [--]. If they don't clean up their act they get a debt crisis [--]. That bails in domestic savers & creates fiscal space [--]. Then there'll be money for defense"
X Link 2025-07-29T07:45Z 353.9K followers, 68K engagements

"This week's rally in the Dollar is highly unusual a classic short squeeze that happens when positioning gets out of whack with reality. Exchange rates are volatile and anything can happen. But one thing's for sure: this kind of move snuffs out the lazy Dollar bearish narratives"
X Link 2025-07-30T16:30Z 361K followers, 12.5K engagements

"There's all kinds of reasons people give why the Dollar has fallen this year. At the root of all that stuff is a simple macro story: tariffs were supposed to lift inflation and that just didn't happen as fast as people expected. Well it's happening now. Inflation is coming"
X Link 2025-07-31T20:10Z 362K followers, 13.6K engagements

"ADP employment is closely watched as a predictor of payrolls. It doesn't deserve that status as it's a horrible predictor. In May & June ADP was weak setting the stage for big market moves when payrolls were ok. This time ADP was decent. Hurdle for upside surprise is higher"
X Link 2025-08-01T10:27Z 355.3K followers, 10.2K engagements

"We had modest upside payrolls surprises in recent months causing big jumps in Treasury yields and the Dollar. This time is different because the Dollar has been rising rapidly and there's more optimism on the US. But if there is an upside surprise it'll supercharge the Dollar"
X Link 2025-08-01T10:34Z 361.5K followers, 11.3K engagements

"Putin's gloating face yesterday was hard to watch. Only one thing will make him understand he can't win in Ukraine which is for the US to shut down the shadow fleet. @econ_harris and I've done lots of work on this. US sanctions can crush the shadow fleet. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/time-to-turn-the-screws-on-moscow https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/time-to-turn-the-screws-on-moscow"
X Link 2025-08-16T12:21Z 364.5K followers, 65.9K engagements

"@boezio_severino I don't think the argument that Germany will suffer in a Euro break up is a good one. The new Deutsche Mark will appreciate massively a counterpart to a huge Italian Lira devaluation. The Bundesbank can intervene to slow the appreciation but Banca d'Italia will be powerless"
X Link 2025-08-20T14:22Z 352.6K followers, [---] engagements

"It's remarkable how little damage from tariffs shows up in manufacturing data. Chart shows latest new export orders for August [----] from the "flash" PMIs just released today. The US index is the highest in a year (red). Everyone else is doing ok. Only the UK is hurting (pink)"
X Link 2025-08-21T14:08Z 353.5K followers, 11.9K engagements

"After the invasion of Ukraine EU exports of cars to Russia fell [--] bn. Around the same time EU exports of cars to Turkey rose by more and EU exports to the UAE and Kazakhstan also surged. So EU exports of cars to Russia likely never really fell. Doing business with the enemy"
X Link 2025-08-25T18:26Z 360.4K followers, 80.6K engagements

"Can the ECB just let French yields rise No because an Italy blow-up is always lurking for the Euro zone. Sharply higher French yields would cause immediate contagion to Italy. The ECB has proven - again and again - that it protects Italy. All roads lead to Rome as they say"
X Link 2025-08-25T19:11Z 355.4K followers, 52K engagements

"@MacroholicsAnon The most obvious thing is to raise the retirement age further. That's something that needs to be done all across Europe. It's unpopular obviously but life expectancy has risen massively and this is only fair"
X Link 2025-09-01T15:18Z 352K followers, [----] engagements

"The 30-year yield is rising everywhere even though the world's central banks are in an easing cycle. That's the best indication that rising long yields are due to a global debt glut the answer to which is to get lax fiscal policy under control. Not lean on your central bank"
X Link 2025-09-02T14:37Z 355.4K followers, 270.2K engagements

"The US Dollar has been essentially unchanged for [--] months now. This doesn't get talked about much as it doesn't fit the consensus narrative which is still very Dollar negative. But - as I have been saying for a long time - the Dollar fall is over"
X Link 2025-09-02T20:53Z 352.4K followers, 183K engagements

"Gold is up massively in the past [--] weeks (lhs) even as the Dollar is stable (rhs). So this gold rally isn't about US reserve currency status as was true after the reciprocal tariffs mess in April. This is about the festering debt crisis in the Euro zone. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/gold-and-us-reserve-currency-status https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/gold-and-us-reserve-currency-status"
X Link 2025-09-05T10:19Z 352.9K followers, 32.9K engagements

"The UK is made out to be a fiscal basket case due to its high yields but thats wrong. While other high-debt countries lean on their central banks to artificially cap yields the UK takes it on the nose. Great @WSJ piece by @MaximColch https://www.wsj.com/world/uk/is-the-u-k-a-canary-in-the-coal-mine-for-a-heavily-indebted-world-a1d904f0st=veYXV3 https://www.wsj.com/world/uk/is-the-u-k-a-canary-in-the-coal-mine-for-a-heavily-indebted-world-a1d904f0st=veYXV3"
X Link 2025-09-08T14:25Z 362K followers, 11.7K engagements

"We're in a global debt crisis. To see that don't look at 30-year yields which get pulled down by falling short-term yields. Look at 10y20y forward yields (red) that strip out short-term yields. Those are up everywhere and at alarming levels in places like Japan UK and France"
X Link 2025-09-11T21:05Z 354.9K followers, 130.8K engagements

"Three weeks ago I tweeted out the EU "Wall of Shame" showing huge transshipment of goods from across the EU to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. Germany's @FOCUS_Magazin allowed me to write about the "Wall of Shame" in this week's issue. Big thanks to @marcbrost https://www.focusplus.de/politik/diese-grafiken-zeigen-deutschlands-mitschuld-5172 https://www.focusplus.de/politik/diese-grafiken-zeigen-deutschlands-mitschuld-5172"
X Link 2025-09-12T13:15Z 353.8K followers, 60.7K engagements

"Bond market vigilantes are back. Three things are happening: (i) long-term yields are rising everywhere a legacy of the COVID debt binge: (ii) France and Japan are idiosyncratic trouble spots; (iii) key safe havens like Germany are losing that status. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bond-market-vigilantes https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bond-market-vigilantes"
X Link 2025-09-13T12:17Z 355.8K followers, 151.8K engagements

"The sharp fall in the Dollar today takes it below the previous low it made in early July. This kind of thing is significant all the more so because it comes ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision. Markets are positioning for a Fed under political pressure and a very dovish meeting"
X Link 2025-09-16T18:19Z 354.6K followers, 41.6K engagements

"When Milei became Argentina's President in Dec '23 I banged the drum to float the Peso. That didn't happen and here we are again. The Peso is down 10% in recent weeks (lhs) FX reserves are tumbling and the discount on the parallel $/ARS rate is widening (rhs). Another crisis"
X Link 2025-09-21T09:57Z 352.7K followers, 99.9K engagements

"The US yesterday offered to do "whatever it takes" to stabilize Argentina's Peso. A big deal and the promise alone will lift the Peso without any actual intervention having to happen. Problem is that this makes Argentina's overvaluation worse not better. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-wrong-medicine-for-argentina https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-wrong-medicine-for-argentina"
X Link 2025-09-23T11:28Z 367K followers, 46.6K engagements

"The inflation impulse from tariffs has faded rapidly yet core inflation is on a rising track. That signals that underlying inflationary pressure is building and is of the home-grown overheating variety. Great piece by @rbrtrmstrng in @FT. https://on.ft.com/42g2Oz2 https://on.ft.com/42g2Oz2"
X Link 2025-09-29T13:56Z 355K followers, 20.8K engagements

"Gold is up 15% (black) since Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole even as the Dollar is flat (blue). This is very unusual and says the rise in gold isn't about Dollar debasement but debasement in fiat currencies broadly. Sign of a global debt crisis. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-gold-rally-and-fiat-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-gold-rally-and-fiat-debasement"
X Link 2025-09-29T15:45Z 352.1K followers, 149.7K engagements

"The Fed's latest dovish pivot - telegraphed on August [--] by Chair Powell at Jackson Hole - unleashed something and I don't think anyone really understands what that is. Gold is up a stunning 15% since that day a rally that's so big that it stands out on this [--] year chart"
X Link 2025-09-29T23:16Z 353.8K followers, 46.6K engagements

"The recent rise in gold prices began after Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech Aug. [--]. The Dollar has been stable since then so this isn't about a flight to safety out of USD but a flight out of all G10 currencies as fears about fiat debasement mount. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-relentless-rise-in-gold-prices https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-relentless-rise-in-gold-prices"
X Link 2025-10-01T10:51Z 352.2K followers, 60.8K engagements

"Rising gold prices are worrying. What we know: (i) this started after Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech so it's clearly about markets trying to hide from politicized central banks; (ii) the Dollar is stable so this isn't a flight out of USD but out of all fiat currencies"
X Link 2025-10-02T12:00Z 352.2K followers, 42.8K engagements

"This year's rise in gold prices has come in two steps: (i) after the "Liberation Day" chaos in early April; (ii) after Chair Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech on August [--]. The rise in gold prices is about a flight to safety from erratic policies and politicization of the Fed"
X Link 2025-10-04T15:09Z 352.3K followers, 17.7K engagements

"The shadow fleet operates with impunity in the Baltic. Putin just ignores this year's massive wave of EU and UK sanctions and runs his shadow fleet (gray) more heavily than ever. The EU must stop this. It's gone on for far too long. Whatever it takes. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"
X Link 2025-10-05T12:59Z 362.3K followers, 16.2K engagements

"@s43843 That improvement is the direct result of hidden transfers from Germany to Spain mainly in the form of ECB promises to keep yields manageable for a high-debt economy like Spain. That started with "whatever it takes" which conflated Euro survival with avoiding debt defaults"
X Link 2025-10-05T15:28Z 364.1K followers, [----] engagements

"The Fed's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole on August [--] bought France time. It pulled down US longer-term yields which also helped pull down French yields. But the effect from that was always going to be fleeting especially given the unsustainable political equilibrium in France"
X Link 2025-10-06T12:29Z 352.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Gold prices are now up a stunning 18% since the Fed's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole on August [--]. The Dollar is stable. This should be giving governments around the world serious pause. Markets fear global debasement in the face of post-COVID debt overhangs. This is all fiscal"
X Link 2025-10-06T12:33Z 352.7K followers, 38.8K engagements

"Today was a really bad day in global bond markets with longer-term yields spiking everywhere. At the root of all this is Japan where markets worry about the likely next prime minister who's a fiscal dove. Huge spike in Japan's 30-year JGB. Japan is a safe haven no more"
X Link 2025-10-06T20:48Z 352K followers, 110.7K engagements

""Liberation Day" chaos damaged US reserve currency status. Reserve manager allocations to USD fell from 58% in Q1 to 56% in Q2 (black). Reserve managers are risk averse so hardly ever make big changes. This is a [----] standard deviation drop. An exodus. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/damage-to-us-reserve-currency-status https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/damage-to-us-reserve-currency-status https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/damage-to-us-reserve-currency-status https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/damage-to-us-reserve-currency-status"
X Link 2025-10-08T10:40Z 352.9K followers, 50.2K engagements

"Great piece by @greg_ip in @WSJ on the massive rally in gold prices. The rise in gold prices coincides with a stable Dollar and a sharp spike in long-term yields. Markets think high debt levels will be inflated away. Gold is a safe haven https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/gold-price-central-bank-28eac30fst=xfo4jW https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/gold-price-central-bank-28eac30fst=xfo4jW"
X Link 2025-10-08T11:24Z 352.1K followers, 27.8K engagements

"Looks like Japan intervened to bring 30-year JGB yield back down after it spiked earlier this week on news its next prime minister is a fiscal dove. Yield caps like this aren't the answer for Japan. They just lead to uncontrolled Yen devaluation. We watched this movie in 2024"
X Link 2025-10-08T11:39Z 352.4K followers, 237.5K engagements

"There's no doubt that global reserve managers are exiting the Dollar. That's a medium-term trend that pre-dates Trump and benefits AUD CAD CNY and other smaller currencies. The Euro has failed to benefit even during the massive Q2 [----] tariff turmoil. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/trends-in-global-fx-reserve-management https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/trends-in-global-fx-reserve-management"
X Link 2025-10-09T11:01Z 352K followers, 74.6K engagements

"The massive rally in gold prices (lhs) since Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August [--] isn't about Dollar debasement. After all the Dollar is currently at a multi-month high (rhs). Instead the rally is about debasement fears across all advanced economy currencies"
X Link 2025-10-09T12:32Z 352.6K followers, 22.3K engagements

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