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@NickTimiraos "I don't disagree with the math but that is a heroic assumption ("assume a flat X% coupon on all new debt") given that the Fed doesn't control the entire curve right I keep hearing about how we're going to have a productivity boom like the 1990s. What happens to the equilibrium real rate in that scenario"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 14:39:01 UTC 424.7K followers, XXX engagements

"On making Bessent his Fed chair Trump says the Treasury secretary "is an option" but he's not the top option "because I like the job he's doing." "I do like the job he's done. So in that sense probably it's not that much of an option.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-16 01:34:37 UTC 424.7K followers, 93.8K engagements

"Removing Powell as Fed chair could lead to a messy drawn-out standoff. The Fed owns its buildings and controls its security. If Trump attempts removal Powell could try to stay until the courts uphold it or the Senate confirms a replacement"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 01:27:33 UTC 424.7K followers, 93.9K engagements

"Initial claims for jobless benefits fell last week and are running below their year-earlier level. Continuing claims continue to point to a slightly less tight labor market compared to a year ago"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-24 12:39:16 UTC 424.7K followers, 43.3K engagements

"Penns Peter Conti-Brown: We are in a high-stakes moment in the history of the Federal Reserve. It seems clear to me that the Trump administration using various mechanisms has now cooked up a post-hoc explanation for Powells removal"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-13 12:01:25 UTC 424.7K followers, 233.3K engagements

"Senate Majority Leader John Thune said markets want an independent Federal Reserve that isn't subject to political whims and suggested firing Powell could be damaging to financial markets. From a Wednesday interview on Fox: BAIER: President Trump asked House Republicans on Tuesday during a meeting in the Oval whether he should fire the Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. They expressed approval. So as the head of the Senate Republicans do you think the President should fire the Fed chair What do you think that would do THUNE: Well I think that ultimately the president probably will make that"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 11:18:27 UTC 424.7K followers, 52.9K engagements

"Seasonally adjusted core goods inflation was +0.20% in June the firmest reading since February. Shelter was a mild +0.18% the softest since early 2021. Core services ex housing was +0.21%"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 20:40:38 UTC 424.7K followers, 49.2K engagements

"The ECB's 2012 construction of its headquarters ($2.2 billion in today's dollars) also saw cost overruns due to unforeseen construction challenges. From Bloomberg:"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-24 19:03:36 UTC 424.7K followers, 20.6K engagements

"Meanwhile personal consumption appears to be slowing though the large decline (-0.3%) for May is partly (largely) payback for the increase in auto sales to get ahead of the tariffs. Discretionary services spending not as poor but not great"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-27 13:41:45 UTC 424.7K followers, 28.6K engagements

"Trump appears to see sovereign credit the way a corporate treasurer or investor would evaluate a corporate credit. If a developer or business has the lowest risk of default and is the best credit they should have the lowest rate. Obviously sovereign credit is different but if you refuse to acknowledge this you can see why someone would be confused"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 14:21:56 UTC 424.7K followers, 4862 engagements

"To your point whatever one thinks of the decision to spend money to renovate Eccles and the vacant one acquired next door the fact that the decision was made in 2017 (when the cost was a rounding error on the large interest-income surpluses the Fed was running) seems relevant. Hard to imagine they'd have made the same decision to go ahead in 2022 when staring at large interest-expense deficits that reflect (in part) measures undertaken to stabilize the Treasury market in 2020"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-22 00:53:30 UTC 424.6K followers, 2077 engagements

"When people ask me about various internet rumormongering my first instinct is to ignore it in the same way the TV cameras don't show the streaker running on the field at Yankee Stadium. But for people who really do wonder about whether the Fed chair would do the opposite of what he keeps saying he will do (which is to serve out his term as chair now just XX months to go) I reflect on how Powell answered the question about getting in the life raft six years ago. I included that answer in my book because it doesn't get any more absolute: I will never ever ever leave this job voluntarily until"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-12 00:39:25 UTC 424.7K followers, 410.6K engagements

"It's a Captain Obvious point but: this is setting up to be the most unusual Fed chair succession in over a generation. The first since Volcker succeeded Bill Miller in which the incoming chair promises to take the Fed in a very different direction from his or her predecessor"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 14:36:21 UTC 424.7K followers, 67.7K engagements

"There could be a choose-your-own narrative quality to today's CPI report. Core prices rose XXXX% which just happens to be the median MoM rise in core prices over the previous XX months (meaning six months were above and six months were below). This is ever so slightly on the soft side of what was expected by some forecasters but the bottom line is that most of those forecasters expect more meaningful tariff effects in July and August . and goods prices were firmer in June. If you think the worst of the tariff-driven price hikes is still ahead then this report doesn't change your underlying"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 13:11:28 UTC 424.5K followers, 224.1K engagements

"The Fed minutes tell us something we already knew: Officials are divided into three groups 1) Cut this year but not July (the largest group) 2) No cuts this year 3) Cut as soon as the next meeting (which the minutes suggest is only a "couple" ie Waller and Bowman)"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-09 18:08:41 UTC 424.6K followers, 269K engagements

"Hassett to ABC News on whether Trump uses the Fed building expenses as a pretext to get what he wants which is a new Fed chair. HASSETT: "I think that whether the president decides to push down that road or not is going to depend a lot on the answers that we get to the questions that Russ Vought sent to the Fed." "The bottom line is that there's a key statutory problem. In 1913 when we founded the Fed the U.S. was under a gold standard. So it was never envisioned never envisioned by the people that voted for the construction of the Fed that we currently see that the Fed could print money and"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-13 16:56:20 UTC 424.7K followers, 354.8K engagements

"Trump says he thinks the Fed should set interest rates at 1%. He also says he won't consider anyone for Fed chair who supports holding rates where they are. "Whoever is in there will lower rates." On Powell's successor: "I'm going to put somebody that wants to cut rates.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-27 21:15:22 UTC 424.7K followers, 775.6K engagements

"If people really want to crawl down the rabbit hole of what the Federal Reserve is allowed to do with its finances for the purposes of its buildings (how else does one spend a weekend in Washington these days) they'll find some fairly complete answers in the Federal Reserve Act including as it was amended in December 2000 when Congress explicitly provided for the Fed to expand. (emphasis is mine) "The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System shall have power to levy semiannually upon the Federal reserve banks in proportion to their capital stock and surplus an assessment sufficient to"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-13 17:02:25 UTC 424.7K followers, 57.6K engagements

"Yes 100%. Last year you noted that the labor market wasn't as weak as some feared; and while private sector hiring did slow through the middle of the year the very slow but gradual rise in the unemployment rate did level off. Does immigration policy cut in the other direction today with respect to supply and demand for labor"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 16:09:27 UTC 424.7K followers, 3077 engagements

"(Breakeven job growth refers to the number of monthly payroll gains needed on average to hold the unemployment rate steady. If these estimates are right the economy could add very few jobs for the rest of the year without a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate). This would be in some ways the inverse of 2023-24 where the unemployment rate edged up during a period of above-expectations job growth"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-02 14:19:26 UTC 424.5K followers, 31.8K engagements

"But then there's this: "Several participants commented that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level." Translation: Outside of a serious slowdown they're not envisioning a lot more reductions even if they do resume cuts"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-09 18:10:19 UTC 424.6K followers, 47.1K engagements

"Join us here for a conversation on the economy and markets:"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 18:00:00 UTC 424.7K followers, 51.4K engagements

"@SteveMiran It's completely reasonable to say a lot has changed in XX months. Services inflation is better behaved owing to the long-anticipated decline in OER"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 14:55:09 UTC 424.7K followers, 6843 engagements

"(Full quote: "If you just look at the basic data and don't look at the forecast you would say that we would've continued cutting. The difference of course is at this time all forecasters are expecting pretty soon that some significant inflation will show up from tariffs. And we can't just ignore that.")"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-24 14:57:39 UTC 424.4K followers, 67.4K engagements

"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in recent days privately laid out his case to President Trump for why he believed Trump shouldnt try to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell people familiar with the matter said. @schwartzbWSJ"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-19 19:45:14 UTC 424.7K followers, 264.4K engagements

"Trump's latest Fed attack is playing out in the court of public opinionnot a court of law. An institution that depends on credibility is defending spending choices on buildings issues with greater salience than the arcane details of rate policy"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 09:30:01 UTC 424.7K followers, 43K engagements

"Trump declines to say if Powell should resign but says he wants the Fed to cut interest rates to X% in order to reduce mortgage rates. Reporter: Do you think that Fed Chair Jerome Powell should resign Trump: I think he's doing a bad job but he's going to be out pretty soon anyway. In eight months he'll be out. But he's I call him 'Too late.' He's too late all the time. He should have lowered interest rates. Many times Europe lowered their rate XX times; we lowered ours none. And it's causing a problem for people that want to buy a home. Look our economy is so strong now. We're blowing through"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-22 17:00:29 UTC 424.7K followers, 109.6K engagements

"President Trump will visit the Federal Reserve on Thursday joining White House aides on a previously arranged tour of the construction site where the central bank is renovating its headquarters"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-24 10:36:57 UTC 424.7K followers, 65.8K engagements

"JPM economists on the OBBB: The deficit should rise close to a percentage point between FY25 and FY26 to over X% of GDP and stay wide thereafter. The bill also implies nearly no fiscal thrust next fiscal year once tariff revenue is factored in and we adjust for some CBO accounting conventions"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-03 11:25:59 UTC 424.7K followers, 120.1K engagements

"Yellen: I don't talk to Secretary Bessent. He has undone everything I worked on at Treasury. Bessent: "I couldn't even tell you what Secretary Yellen's China policy was aside from consuming beer and mushrooms." via @bobdavis187"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-18 18:17:35 UTC 424.7K followers, 303.3K engagements

"@Convertbond Which Canadian unemployment rate are you referring to as the one falling fast This is the headline rate from Statistics Canada"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-13 15:14:31 UTC 424.5K followers, 11.6K engagements

"The Federal Reserves headquarters renovation was ambitious from the start: refurbish and modernize two stately nearly-century-old buildings in an iconic district of a major city. Then it hit the swamp"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-24 19:01:01 UTC 424.7K followers, 21.1K engagements

"CPI is close to consensus. Not as mild as May. Core prices rose XXXX% in June. 12-month inflation was XXX% Headline prices rose 0.29%. 12-month inflation was 2.6%"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 12:37:06 UTC 424.7K followers, 320.1K engagements

"@MPelletierCIO I dont think its purely made up even if its wrong"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-24 19:40:04 UTC 424.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Waller removes any doubt: He'll vote for a July cut. The opening line of the speech gets to the point: My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the FOMC should reduce our policy rate by XX basis points at our next meeting"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 22:30:45 UTC 424.7K followers, 445.3K engagements

"Kevin Warsh to Larry Kudlow on FBN: -"You can have materially lower interest rates" if the Fed would shrink a couple trillion dollars off the balance sheet. -"We're in a housing recession right now." -Financial market conditions are loose. -"Tariffs are not inflationary.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-08 00:44:02 UTC 424.6K followers, 117K engagements

"@darioperkins John Cochrane: "The Fed should bend to political pressure every now and then. We live in a democracy. We do not give technocrats perpetual power to follow their whims.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 21:13:09 UTC 424.7K followers, 2627 engagements

"@klahti @karimbasta We covered this project a couple years ago:"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-22 03:28:05 UTC 424.7K followers, 1461 engagements

"Kevin Warsh is asked by @BeckyQuick if the next Fed chair is going to be indepedent. Warsh: "In a word yes. Ive strongly believed for XX years and history tells us that the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy is essential.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 12:11:24 UTC 424.7K followers, 61.3K engagements

"Year-ahead inflation expectations in the Atlanta Fed's survey of businesses declined in July to XXXX% a roundtrip to January levels following the tariff announcements in the spring. Sales levels and profit margins compared to "normal times" decreased"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 16:21:54 UTC 424.7K followers, 43.6K engagements

"President Trump denied that he was planning to attempt to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell after polling GOP lawmakers during a closed-door meeting about whether he should oust him. I dont rule out anything but I think its highly unlikely.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-16 16:26:39 UTC 424.7K followers, 68.8K engagements

"Tim Scott the Senate Banking Committee chairman is set to join Trump and his allies on the Fed construction-site tour:"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-24 15:30:09 UTC 424.7K followers, 18.6K engagements

"No pickup in seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment benefits last week. Continuing claims continue to point to a slightly less tight labor market compared to a year ago"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 12:34:39 UTC 424.7K followers, 40.5K engagements

"The president says that if the Fed lowered short term rates interest expenses for the U.S. would fall by $X trillion per year. The U.S. spent $XXX trillion on interest expenses in 2024 and so there's almost no way this claim is remotely true"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 13:54:53 UTC 424.7K followers, 372.4K engagements

"The next few months of inflation data will offer a key test of competing theories about whether tariffs will prove inflationary and animate potential Fed divisions over how to manage any costs if forecasts are wrongin either direction"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-10 01:32:17 UTC 424.7K followers, 95K engagements

"Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan: "My base case is that we'll need to keep interest rates modestly restrictive for some time" But "it's also possible that some combination of softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for lower rates fairly soon.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 23:50:00 UTC 424.7K followers, 96.2K engagements

"Stipulating that it is entirely reasonable for people to change their view about XX months ago you thought that dovish-oriented policy-makers (or commentators) were mistaken in their risk-management reaction function; that economic weakness brought about by a high policy rate could be "easily and swiftly reversed" and that this was a "small price to pay for a permanent reduction in inflation." You wrote with alarm about cavalierly assuming X% inflation was good enough for government work. Have your views about these risks changed Policy rates are now XXX bps lower than they were when you"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 15:00:51 UTC 424.7K followers, 13.5K engagements

"Trump unloads again on Powell (via Truth Social): I dont know why the Board doesnt override this Total and Complete Moron Maybe just maybe Ill have to change my mind about firing him But regardless his Term ends shortly I fully understand that my strong criticism of him makes it more difficult for him to do what he should be doing lowering Rates"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-20 22:17:30 UTC 424.7K followers, 355.4K engagements

"Goldman: "Market participants seem to agree that the risk to Fed independence is rising as 5-year 5-year forward inflation swaps have recently decoupled higher from their prior close relationship with the 2-year note yield.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-22 00:59:01 UTC 424.7K followers, 187K engagements

"During an awkward exchange inside the Fed's very much under-construction headquarters Trump playfully smacked Fed Chair Jay Powell while saying "Id love him to lower interest rates." The two also disagreed over how to account for the building project. Trump said it cost $XXX billion and handed a piece of paper to Powell who informed him he was counting the cost of a third building that was completed in 2021"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-24 20:16:40 UTC 424.7K followers, 53K engagements

"Trump: "These tariffs may be modified upward or downward depending on our relationship with your country.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-07 16:32:02 UTC 424.7K followers, 457.7K engagements

"At a meeting with investors last month Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent lamented Fed Chair Jay Powells caution on rates after having misjudged inflation as transitory in 2021. Attendees said Bessent compared the Fed chair to an old man who having hurt himself after a bad fall was now more likely to fall again because he is always looking down at his feet when he takes a step"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-09 15:05:04 UTC 424.6K followers, 148.5K engagements

"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who last year floated the idea of naming a "shadow" Fed chair to undercut Jay Powell said the idea of Powell remaining on the Fed board after his term as governor would be "very confusing for the market.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 13:25:54 UTC 424.6K followers, 109.9K engagements

"Economists at Deutsche Bank did back of the envelope math: Attempting to remove Powell as Fed chair might send short-term rates a bit lower but long-term rates a bit higher. The net savings would be a mere $12-15 billion through 2027 even if Treasury implemented an activist issuance scheme to delay coupon increases and skew issuance towards bills"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 14:32:11 UTC 424.7K followers, 103K engagements

"Trump is going to the Federal Reserve tomorrow according to his schedule. Only three presidents have visited the Fed. FDR when its HQ building opened in 1938 Ford when a buddy of his became a governor and George W. Bush for the swearing in of Ben Bernanke"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-24 02:23:00 UTC 424.7K followers, 260K engagements

"@GeneralTheorist That's a creative interpretation. Well done. It's an NPV on interest expense XX years from now"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 14:11:40 UTC 424.7K followers, 2825 engagements

"Trump's CEA chair last year was voicing concern that lower mortgage rates might stoke shelter inflation"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 13:57:17 UTC 424.7K followers, 125.2K engagements

"Bartiromo: Bill Pulte at FHFA wants Jay Powell to resign immediately. Do you agree that he should step down Bessent: Look I know Chair Powell. There's nothing that tells me that he should step down right now. He's been a good public servant. His term ends in May. If he wants to see that through I think he should. If he wants to leave early I think he should"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-22 14:15:12 UTC 424.7K followers, 77.8K engagements

"@TXMCtrades He angled to get the vice chair post under Powell. Trump ultimately gave it to Clarida who reported up to El-Erian at Pimco after Powell backed Clarida for the job. Powell wanted someone who could help on monetary policy and who he could trust"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-22 14:35:21 UTC 424.7K followers, 4387 engagements

"Bessent on the Fed: "Based on the way they cut rates last fall they should be cutting rates now.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-22 17:00:49 UTC 424.7K followers, 86.7K engagements

"Trump advisers ramped up a campaign against the Fed chair by alleging he either lied to Congress about the Feds HQ renovation or mismanaged it potentially laying a new scaffolding to oust him. The complaints open an additional line of attack as part of a push for lower rates"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-11 23:29:17 UTC 424.7K followers, 111.4K engagements

"June CPI is expected to show core prices rose XXXX% which would bring the 12-month increase to XXX% (from XXX% in May). Headline prices are expected to have risen XXXX% which would lift the 12-month measure to XXX% from XXX% in May"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-14 19:34:05 UTC 424.7K followers, 286.5K engagements

"Why shouldnt it be held to the same standard (I wasnt the one making the connection between oversight and capitaljust responding to the connection asserted here: a review of the decision to undertake such a project by an institution reporting operating losses of more than $XXX billion per year should be conducted.)"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-22 03:24:01 UTC 424.7K followers, 1466 engagements

"Economists at Deutsche Bank did back of the envelope math: Attempting to remove Powell as Fed chair might send short-term rates a bit lower but long-term rates a bit higher. The net savings would be a mere $12-15 billion through 2027 even if Treasury implemented an activist issuance scheme to delayed coupon increases to skew more issuance towards bills"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 14:31:45 UTC 424.7K followers, 6003 engagements

"Piper Sandler's Andy Laperriere: "It's hard to know when this will matter to financial markets but the politicization of the Fed we are witnessing is a monumental development." "While we would not argue the Fed has been pure as the driven snow for the past XX years (and certainly made plenty of mistakes) the turn we are witnessing is a consequential break.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 11:56:09 UTC 424.7K followers, 67K engagements

"Waller arrives at this out-of-consensus position (relative to his colleagues) because he thinks the Fed should look through tariffs and move rates closer to neutral. We should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 22:40:40 UTC 424.7K followers, 63.9K engagements

"Some people argue the mission creep is an example of the Fed failing to defend (or losing) its independence. The mission creep was if anything an effort to be more responsive to political demands -- up to a fairly circumscribed point and one that climate warriors said the Fed unnecessarily resisted -- in order to maximize its freedom of movement on monetary policy. (We'll agree that our mandate allows us to dip our toes over here if you agree to let us do what we've been doing over on the thing we care the most about which is monetary policy). I see commentators on the left saying "The Fed"
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-23 21:10:46 UTC 424.7K followers, 3533 engagements