[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  LTValue [@qualitybargain](/creator/twitter/qualitybargain) on x 2276 followers Created: 2025-07-23 11:58:07 UTC Have looked at both of these. I think the story for $DLTR to grow comp sales and margins is much more straightforward (through introducing multi-dollar assortment and opening stores both organically and through picking up leases of other retailer bankruptcies). Mix of multi-price products is still very low vs. peers like Dollarama and $ productivity per store also much lower. Plenty of room to improve. Whereas for BME I'm concerned that there are unresolved issues on the FMCG assortment that need to be addressed, and not an easy fix for these businesses. Yes these models capital light, cash efficient and have operating leverage but you also have operating de-leverage as soon as your LFL numbers go the wrong way. While it looks cheap on 7x NTM PE, I have very low confidence in that earnings number. Don't like the negative FMCG LFL, the ASP deflation on general merch, and lack of visibility in plan/path forward such that no FY guidance given. Meanwhile LFL in many other UK grocery names appear healthy. And why was there no general analyst Q&A and instead just a pre-recorded fireside chat? With a new CEO, business struggling but supposedly a simple turnaround plan, least they can do is answer questions, and having not done this it isn't a good look. Could very well see material hit to gross margin through price/discounting and de-leverage on SG&A as the business resets and works through issues (i.e. selling out of poor performing old stock, buying new stock, investment in marketing/promotions, possible store layout changes or refurbs, etc.). Which isn't an exciting story. Whereas for $DLTR, plugging in guidance for store openings, comp sales, and other items post sale of FDO, my FY25 EPS is already closer to ~$6/sh, meaningfully higher than consensus, and business has potential to continue revising over next 2-3 yrs if the story plays out positively, in which case paying 19x NTM PE for a good earnings story may be much better value... XXX engagements  **Related Topics** [dltr](/topic/dltr) [productivity](/topic/productivity) [$dolto](/topic/$dolto) [sales and](/topic/sales-and) [$dltr](/topic/$dltr) [dollar tree inc](/topic/dollar-tree-inc) [stocks consumer defensive](/topic/stocks-consumer-defensive) [Post Link](https://x.com/qualitybargain/status/1947989601467105320)
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LTValue @qualitybargain on x 2276 followers
Created: 2025-07-23 11:58:07 UTC
Have looked at both of these.
I think the story for $DLTR to grow comp sales and margins is much more straightforward (through introducing multi-dollar assortment and opening stores both organically and through picking up leases of other retailer bankruptcies). Mix of multi-price products is still very low vs. peers like Dollarama and $ productivity per store also much lower. Plenty of room to improve.
Whereas for BME I'm concerned that there are unresolved issues on the FMCG assortment that need to be addressed, and not an easy fix for these businesses. Yes these models capital light, cash efficient and have operating leverage but you also have operating de-leverage as soon as your LFL numbers go the wrong way.
While it looks cheap on 7x NTM PE, I have very low confidence in that earnings number. Don't like the negative FMCG LFL, the ASP deflation on general merch, and lack of visibility in plan/path forward such that no FY guidance given. Meanwhile LFL in many other UK grocery names appear healthy. And why was there no general analyst Q&A and instead just a pre-recorded fireside chat? With a new CEO, business struggling but supposedly a simple turnaround plan, least they can do is answer questions, and having not done this it isn't a good look.
Could very well see material hit to gross margin through price/discounting and de-leverage on SG&A as the business resets and works through issues (i.e. selling out of poor performing old stock, buying new stock, investment in marketing/promotions, possible store layout changes or refurbs, etc.). Which isn't an exciting story.
Whereas for $DLTR, plugging in guidance for store openings, comp sales, and other items post sale of FDO, my FY25 EPS is already closer to ~$6/sh, meaningfully higher than consensus, and business has potential to continue revising over next 2-3 yrs if the story plays out positively, in which case paying 19x NTM PE for a good earnings story may be much better value...
XXX engagements
Related Topics dltr productivity $dolto sales and $dltr dollar tree inc stocks consumer defensive