[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Jake Browatzke 🚀 [@jakebrowatzke](/creator/twitter/jakebrowatzke) on x 31K followers Created: 2025-07-22 19:17:01 UTC The problem with $OSCR compared to $LMND In insurance, net profit equals total premiums collected minus loss ratio (claims paid) minus expense ratio (opperating costs). $LMND's trailing XX month loss ratio is 73%, ex-CAT (CA wildfire in Q1) Lemonade’s Q1 loss ratio was 59%. $OSCR is far more regulated because they operate within the ACA (affordable care act, aka Obamacare) and have X primary paying customer, the US government. This customer says it's illegal for Oscar to have a loss ratio below 80%. Thankfully for Oscar, they use AI, which they hope will push their expense ratio to just XX% of premiums. (Compared to 20%-30% for most insurance companies). Lemonade also uses AI and is the very best at it within the entire insurance industry. To be conservative, let's also assume Lemonade achieves a XX% expense ratio. $OSCR's combined ratio in their goldilocks scenario is thus XX% (80% loss ratio + XX% expense ratio). Leaving a net profit margin (before interest income) of only 5%. $LMND's combined ratio in their base case scenario (far from their goldilocks) is XX% (65% loss ratio + XX% expense ratio). Leaving a net profit margin (before interest income) of 20%. This makes Lemonade 4x more profitable per dollar than Oscar Health, assuming the same level of AI efficiency, which may be generous to Oscar long term. To be clear, I still think Oscar is undervalued and a fair deal today. However, the free cash flow growth potential for Lemonade is simply far far greater. $OSCR needs to grow topline by $X for every $X $LMND needs to grow topline to achieve the same level of free cash flow growth. This is a big deal.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [$lmnds](/topic/$lmnds) [fund manager](/topic/fund-manager) [insurance](/topic/insurance) [$oscr](/topic/$oscr) [$lmnd](/topic/$lmnd) [Post Link](https://x.com/jakebrowatzke/status/1947737668218982756)
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Jake Browatzke 🚀 @jakebrowatzke on x 31K followers
Created: 2025-07-22 19:17:01 UTC
The problem with $OSCR compared to $LMND
In insurance, net profit equals total premiums collected minus loss ratio (claims paid) minus expense ratio (opperating costs).
$LMND's trailing XX month loss ratio is 73%, ex-CAT (CA wildfire in Q1) Lemonade’s Q1 loss ratio was 59%. $OSCR is far more regulated because they operate within the ACA (affordable care act, aka Obamacare) and have X primary paying customer, the US government. This customer says it's illegal for Oscar to have a loss ratio below 80%.
Thankfully for Oscar, they use AI, which they hope will push their expense ratio to just XX% of premiums. (Compared to 20%-30% for most insurance companies). Lemonade also uses AI and is the very best at it within the entire insurance industry. To be conservative, let's also assume Lemonade achieves a XX% expense ratio.
$OSCR's combined ratio in their goldilocks scenario is thus XX% (80% loss ratio + XX% expense ratio). Leaving a net profit margin (before interest income) of only 5%.
$LMND's combined ratio in their base case scenario (far from their goldilocks) is XX% (65% loss ratio + XX% expense ratio). Leaving a net profit margin (before interest income) of 20%.
This makes Lemonade 4x more profitable per dollar than Oscar Health, assuming the same level of AI efficiency, which may be generous to Oscar long term.
To be clear, I still think Oscar is undervalued and a fair deal today. However, the free cash flow growth potential for Lemonade is simply far far greater.
$OSCR needs to grow topline by $X for every $X $LMND needs to grow topline to achieve the same level of free cash flow growth. This is a big deal.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics $lmnds fund manager insurance $oscr $lmnd