[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Neil Sethi [@neilksethi](/creator/twitter/neilksethi) on x 12.4K followers Created: 2025-07-22 16:59:00 UTC Goldman: One reason why President Trump might raise tariffs further is that the costs of the trade war have been smaller than anticipated so far. At least as far as inflation is concerned, however, we think this mostly reflects lags related to large-scale inventory building before the tariffs hit. For the earliest Trump tariffs, these lags have now run their course. Our estimates for June imply that XX% of the tariffs implemented in February have passed through, raising the core PCE price index by a cumulative 0.2%. With an estimated XXX% price level increase yet to come, we expect the year-on-year core PCE inflation rate to rise back above X% in H2, even assuming continued benign trends in rents, healthcare, and other services. We still think this is a one-time price level shift akin to a VAT hike.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [president trumps](/topic/president-trumps) [trumps](/topic/trumps) [inflation](/topic/inflation) [trade war](/topic/trade-war) [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) [donald trump](/topic/donald-trump) [Post Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1947702932855787929)
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Neil Sethi @neilksethi on x 12.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-22 16:59:00 UTC
Goldman: One reason why President Trump might raise tariffs further is that the costs of the trade war have been smaller than anticipated so far. At least as far as inflation is concerned, however, we think this mostly reflects lags related to large-scale inventory building before the tariffs hit. For the earliest Trump tariffs, these lags have now run their course.
Our estimates for June imply that XX% of the tariffs implemented in February have passed through, raising the core PCE price index by a cumulative 0.2%. With an estimated XXX% price level increase yet to come, we expect the year-on-year core PCE inflation rate to rise back above X% in H2, even assuming continued benign trends in rents, healthcare, and other services. We still think this is a one-time price level shift akin to a VAT hike.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics president trumps trumps inflation trade war tariffs donald trump