[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Neil Sethi [@neilksethi](/creator/twitter/neilksethi) on x 12.4K followers Created: 2025-07-22 10:00:00 UTC Goldman (Hatzius): We have made several changes to our trade policy assumptions on the back of President Trump’s latest threats. While we don't expect the “letter tariffs” scheduled for August X to take effect, we now build in an increase in the "reciprocal" tariff rate from XX% to 15%. By contrast, we think the XX% pharma tariff will be delayed until after the 2026 midterm election. This still implies an increase in the average effective tariff rate of about 14pp in 2025, but we now expect another 3pp increase to nearly XX% in 2026. The risks to these assumptions are two-sided but generally tilted higher.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) [trumps](/topic/trumps) [Post Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1947597488921166069)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
Neil Sethi @neilksethi on x 12.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-22 10:00:00 UTC
Goldman (Hatzius): We have made several changes to our trade policy assumptions on the back of President Trump’s latest threats. While we don't expect the “letter tariffs” scheduled for August X to take effect, we now build in an increase in the "reciprocal" tariff rate from XX% to 15%. By contrast, we think the XX% pharma tariff will be delayed until after the 2026 midterm election. This still implies an increase in the average effective tariff rate of about 14pp in 2025, but we now expect another 3pp increase to nearly XX% in 2026. The risks to these assumptions are two-sided but generally tilted higher.
XXXXX engagements
