[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Neil Sethi [@neilksethi](/creator/twitter/neilksethi) on x 12.4K followers Created: 2025-07-22 02:51:00 UTC Goldman (Hatzius): China’s GDP beat consensus expectations in Q2 and our full-year 2025 forecast has edged up to 4.7%. The bigger picture is unchanged, with strength in industrial production and exports but weakness in housing and retail sales (outside of the "cash for clunkers" program). The resulting imbalance between supply and demand has pushed China’s current account surplus up to XXX% of GDP in Q1. Relative to China’s GDP, this is far smaller than the surpluses seen at the peak of the first China shock of the 2000s. But relative to GDP outside of China, it is a new record. The growing concerns about a second China shock that hits manufacturing employment across the globe are likely to strengthen calls for higher trade barriers among China's trading partners. Given China's massive cost advantage and ability to retaliate against tariffs, however, these are unlikely to be very effective. What's needed is a reorientation in China's economic policy aimed at boosting consumption rather than production, as well as an appreciation in the RMB.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [government spending](/topic/government-spending) [gdp growth](/topic/gdp-growth) [gdp](/topic/gdp) [Post Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1947489526651191732)
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Neil Sethi @neilksethi on x 12.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-22 02:51:00 UTC
Goldman (Hatzius): China’s GDP beat consensus expectations in Q2 and our full-year 2025 forecast has edged up to 4.7%. The bigger picture is unchanged, with strength in industrial production and exports but weakness in housing and retail sales (outside of the "cash for clunkers" program).
The resulting imbalance between supply and demand has pushed China’s current account surplus up to XXX% of GDP in Q1. Relative to China’s GDP, this is far smaller than the surpluses seen at the peak of the first China shock of the 2000s. But relative to GDP outside of China, it is a new record. The growing concerns about a second China shock that hits manufacturing employment across the globe are likely to strengthen calls for higher trade barriers among China's trading partners. Given China's massive cost advantage and ability to retaliate against tariffs, however, these are unlikely to be very effective. What's needed is a reorientation in China's economic policy aimed at boosting consumption rather than production, as well as an appreciation in the RMB.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics government spending gdp growth gdp