[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Data Driven Investing [@DataDInvesting](/creator/twitter/DataDInvesting) on x 43.4K followers Created: 2025-07-21 13:43:33 UTC I used to invest in $OPEN. I know the company very well. Here is one reason this run is not really justified. A good amount of this run is being based on the narrative that rate cuts will spur the housing market. That just isn't true. The real estate industry is mostly tied to the interest rate on the 30-year mortgage. Even with significant rate cuts over the next year or two, it probably won't move much. Why? There are short-term treasuries (1-month, 6-month, 1-year), medium term treasuries (2-9 years) and long-term treasuries (10+ years). The 30-yr mortgage rate is historically tied to long-term treasuries. When the Fed cuts rates, it has a big effect on the amount of interest for short-term borrowing. The fed funds rate is the interest rates banks use when they lend to each other overnight. So it's basically the interest rate for a single day. You can see how this affects a 1-month or 3-month treasury, because now you know with almost certainty what the rate is going to be between now and the next FOMC meeting. However, the further out you get on the yield curve (which means the longer you are looking into the future), the less it matters what the yield is overnight right now. What controls the long end of the curve right now is how much people are demanding to tie up their money for 10+ years. And with our rampant spending, people are rightfully concerned that the government is going to be printing a lot of money to cover the deficit, which means they want a lot of interest to tie up their money for a decade or more. That means that the 10-year treasury is actually paying MORE interest now than it was back in September before there were ANY rate cuts (around XXX% today vs XXXX% last September). Mortgage rates follow the 10Y, they were down to XXX% last October but are back up around 6.75B now. In other words, even if rate cuts come, it doesn't affect mortgage rates. If you want mortgage rates to come down, you need the government to balance the budget. Reducing the risk of rampant money printing is what will move the 30Y mortgage rate, not rate cuts. If you hear from someone that rate cuts are going to fuel $OPEN's business, you can be fairly certain that person doesn't understand what they are talking about.  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [fed rate](/topic/fed-rate) [coins real estate](/topic/coins-real-estate) [housing market](/topic/housing-market) [spur](/topic/spur) [investment](/topic/investment) [$open](/topic/$open) [Post Link](https://x.com/DataDInvesting/status/1947291359439892545)
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Data Driven Investing @DataDInvesting on x 43.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-21 13:43:33 UTC
I used to invest in $OPEN. I know the company very well. Here is one reason this run is not really justified.
A good amount of this run is being based on the narrative that rate cuts will spur the housing market. That just isn't true.
The real estate industry is mostly tied to the interest rate on the 30-year mortgage. Even with significant rate cuts over the next year or two, it probably won't move much.
Why?
There are short-term treasuries (1-month, 6-month, 1-year), medium term treasuries (2-9 years) and long-term treasuries (10+ years). The 30-yr mortgage rate is historically tied to long-term treasuries.
When the Fed cuts rates, it has a big effect on the amount of interest for short-term borrowing. The fed funds rate is the interest rates banks use when they lend to each other overnight. So it's basically the interest rate for a single day. You can see how this affects a 1-month or 3-month treasury, because now you know with almost certainty what the rate is going to be between now and the next FOMC meeting.
However, the further out you get on the yield curve (which means the longer you are looking into the future), the less it matters what the yield is overnight right now. What controls the long end of the curve right now is how much people are demanding to tie up their money for 10+ years. And with our rampant spending, people are rightfully concerned that the government is going to be printing a lot of money to cover the deficit, which means they want a lot of interest to tie up their money for a decade or more.
That means that the 10-year treasury is actually paying MORE interest now than it was back in September before there were ANY rate cuts (around XXX% today vs XXXX% last September). Mortgage rates follow the 10Y, they were down to XXX% last October but are back up around 6.75B now.
In other words, even if rate cuts come, it doesn't affect mortgage rates. If you want mortgage rates to come down, you need the government to balance the budget. Reducing the risk of rampant money printing is what will move the 30Y mortgage rate, not rate cuts.
If you hear from someone that rate cuts are going to fuel $OPEN's business, you can be fairly certain that person doesn't understand what they are talking about.
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics fed rate coins real estate housing market spur investment $open