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![neilksethi Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::2252413050.png) Neil Sethi [@neilksethi](/creator/twitter/neilksethi) on x 12.3K followers
Created: 2025-07-20 13:20:00 UTC

Barclays: Our baseline outlook is roughly in line with the implications of simple Taylor-type rules that express the federal funds rate as a function of core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate, an estimate of the neutral real interest rate, and, in the case of the inertial Taylor rule, the prior month's federal funds rate. According to these rules, the current level of policy rates (shown in black in Figure 6) is not particularly elevated. 

So, regardless of who is the FOMC chair, we think that the rest of the FOMC will likely find little reason to lower rates more rapidly than indicated here, unless they fear a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions.

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GwRA5f8WUAAAfOr.png)

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**Related Topics**
[rates](/topic/rates)
[fed rate](/topic/fed-rate)
[gdp growth](/topic/gdp-growth)
[inflation](/topic/inflation)
[$barcl](/topic/$barcl)
[neil](/topic/neil)

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