[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Neil Sethi [@neilksethi](/creator/twitter/neilksethi) on x 12.3K followers Created: 2025-07-20 12:02:00 UTC As always a nice collection of posts from Christophe. He included the Yale Budget Lab analysis of the tariffs to date (note they say they analyze tariffs on a “real-time current policy” basis, "where policy as it stands as of date certain is assumed to continue in perpetuity, even if framed as a temporary policy"). They also assume full pass through and no Fed response. Unsurprisingly given those assumptions they see a negative impact to prices (particularly shoe & apparel), employment (they see unemployment rising by a half percent by YE) and GDP (-0.9% drag in 2025 as stronger US manufacturing (although advanced manufacturing is weaker) is "crowded out" by construction and agriculture declines (chart)). But they'll raise $2.5tn over the next XX years. Internationally, they say "Canada has borne the brunt of the damage from US tariffs so far, with its long-run economy -XXX% smaller in real terms (reflecting both US tariffs and Canadian retaliation to date). China’s economy is -XXX% smaller, less than half as large as the hit to the US. The EU economy is XXX percentage point larger in the long-run, while the UK’s is XXX% bigger thanks in part to the benefits of US-UK trade deal." (chart). Anyway, you can click through for the full analysis.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [spx](/topic/spx) [#spx](/topic/#spx) [fed](/topic/fed) [realtime](/topic/realtime) [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) [budgeting](/topic/budgeting) [neil](/topic/neil) [Post Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1946903415172317266)
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Neil Sethi @neilksethi on x 12.3K followers
Created: 2025-07-20 12:02:00 UTC
As always a nice collection of posts from Christophe. He included the Yale Budget Lab analysis of the tariffs to date (note they say they analyze tariffs on a “real-time current policy” basis, "where policy as it stands as of date certain is assumed to continue in perpetuity, even if framed as a temporary policy"). They also assume full pass through and no Fed response.
Unsurprisingly given those assumptions they see a negative impact to prices (particularly shoe & apparel), employment (they see unemployment rising by a half percent by YE) and GDP (-0.9% drag in 2025 as stronger US manufacturing (although advanced manufacturing is weaker) is "crowded out" by construction and agriculture declines (chart)). But they'll raise $2.5tn over the next XX years.
Internationally, they say "Canada has borne the brunt of the damage from US tariffs so far, with its long-run economy -XXX% smaller in real terms (reflecting both US tariffs and Canadian retaliation to date). China’s economy is -XXX% smaller, less than half as large as the hit to the US. The EU economy is XXX percentage point larger in the long-run, while the UK’s is XXX% bigger thanks in part to the benefits of US-UK trade deal." (chart).
Anyway, you can click through for the full analysis.
XXXXX engagements
